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2025-08-29

浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达

外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯

2025-10-29

$LI 20251107 23.0 CALL$ 及时止损，不亏完

2025-10-18

赚钱的时候都在潇洒，只有亏钱才会复盘策略

2025-10-30

$GOOG 20251031 260.0 CALL$ 信仰之名，祝我成功

2025-10-28

$理想汽车(LI)$ 江湖再见👋

2025-10-25

人工智能的估值虽然有泡沫，但是增长是逐渐超出预期的，值得buy

2025-09-19

我愿意跟着k线一直做着波段，永远死在追高的路上，也不愿停下来守着分工。

2025-09-18

预测50

2025-08-14

利润下滑，业务增加有限，不打

2025-08-08

股票当然是投资，买入价值低估获利价值实现时。赌博是概率游戏，而股票是综合多个因素的博弈

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信仰之名，祝我成功","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6e754b209ba7ed6a2569904a696fbe6","width":"904","height":"1703"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494610253898544","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":638,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494425181753808,"gmtCreate":1761739444801,"gmtModify":1761739456786,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI 20251107 23.0 CALL\">$LI 20251107 23.0 CALL$ </a> 及时止损，不亏完","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/LI 20251107 23.0 CALL\">$LI 20251107 23.0 CALL$ </a> 及时止损，不亏完","text":"$LI 20251107 23.0 CALL$ 及时止损，不亏完","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33274b936948f51c33fc5920b092e802","width":"904","height":"1703"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494425181753808","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494118182003528,"gmtCreate":1761660538939,"gmtModify":1761660551030,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$ </a> 江湖再见👋","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">$理想汽车(LI)$ </a> 江湖再见👋","text":"$理想汽车(LI)$ 江湖再见👋","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/71c97ca285d7ca813e70fc5f3e1f82d7","width":"904","height":"1703"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/494118182003528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1043,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492944059105432,"gmtCreate":1761368900320,"gmtModify":1761368903121,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"人工智能的估值虽然有泡沫，但是增长是逐渐超出预期的，值得buy","listText":"人工智能的估值虽然有泡沫，但是增长是逐渐超出预期的，值得buy","text":"人工智能的估值虽然有泡沫，但是增长是逐渐超出预期的，值得buy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492944059105432","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":767,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":490379284402712,"gmtCreate":1760748440137,"gmtModify":1760748442739,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"赚钱的时候都在潇洒，只有亏钱才会复盘策略","listText":"赚钱的时候都在潇洒，只有亏钱才会复盘策略","text":"赚钱的时候都在潇洒，只有亏钱才会复盘策略","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/490379284402712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":480305961742528,"gmtCreate":1758286573752,"gmtModify":1758286576202,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我愿意跟着k线一直做着波段，永远死在追高的路上，也不愿停下来守着分工。","listText":"我愿意跟着k线一直做着波段，永远死在追高的路上，也不愿停下来守着分工。","text":"我愿意跟着k线一直做着波段，永远死在追高的路上，也不愿停下来守着分工。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/480305961742528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":616,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":479897901400296,"gmtCreate":1758186364822,"gmtModify":1758186962077,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"预测50","listText":"预测50","text":"预测50","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/479897901400296","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":472845797315272,"gmtCreate":1756472361871,"gmtModify":1756472451971,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","listText":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","text":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472845797315272","repostId":"1136523120","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136523120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756469647,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136523120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 20:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136523120","media":"半佛仙人","summary":"这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。</p><p>前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。</p><p>阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。</p><p>（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa0610162a502d414897522dc559d6c\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><p>这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。</p><p>这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae10291f892e7d66dc11f27340f435b\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"205\"/><span>图片</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23d0477e9b5415c9f634c2aacd2d13c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"165\"/></p><p>我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。</p><p>行了，先看具体数据。</p><p>先看红黄两家的Q2财报，可以说都是砸重金了，实打实的钱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fa0a5fee2043e5ddde8f375a6f500ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"981\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9270231fbcc42de5e1217f39ac6fe2e9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9d6f25abe46a58d70eb8b072bd7ad8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><p>再看刚发的，阿里的财报，阿里烧了多少？</p><p>跟那两家差不多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e850ce5ac248a99767197819d454941\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"1526\"/><span>图片</span></p><p>为什么之前我就说阿里非常聪明和狠？</p><p>一方面是，他们出手的时候是在红黄打过一轮之后，如果这是一场拳击，那就是在对方力竭换气的一瞬间出拳。</p><p>就这一瞬间的一拳，就会影响比赛走向。</p><p>另一方面，当两方打过一轮算账的时候，再加入，可以让双方都没法脱离战争，不然对方之前就白打了。</p><p>这个白打，不仅仅是算账算不过来了，更关键的是，烧了这么多钱如果白烧了，如此之高的沉没成本，需要有人为之前的决策，负责。</p><p><strong>那么，谁负责？</strong></p><p><strong>付得起责吗？</strong></p><p><strong>所以有些折腾看起来莫名其妙，但必须折腾，因为不折腾，里面就要有人为之前的折腾负责。</strong></p><p>一样的道理，当阿里开始下场砸钱的时候，如果红黄里面没有人想要为此负责，那就必须，烧下去。</p><p>只有这样，才能避免思考之前的责任归谁的问题。</p><p>别管公司了，先管管自己吧。</p><p><strong>2</strong></p><p>如果到这里，阿里仅仅只是聪明。</p><p>更关键的是，为什么要从集团层面出手，不让他们退场？</p><p>这就到了阿里狠的地方了。</p><p>红黄的博弈本身只是商业博弈，是存在一个商业概念的，是有一个商业标准和目的的。</p><p>但凡商业标准，大家其实是数字和差价游戏，算的是赚和赔，有的赚就玩，赚不了就不玩儿。</p><p>而阿里不这么理解。</p><p><strong>在阿里的概念里，这是一场战争。</strong></p><p><strong>是一个重创同行们的好机会。</strong></p><p>过去在外卖领域只是老二，在电商领域老大当的也不稳，尽管自己旗下有很多业务但好像在这俩领域都使不上。</p><p>你没法用钉钉去扎他俩，也没法用阿里云去算计他俩，没法用优酷来勾引他俩，没法用高德去规划他俩，没法用菜鸟的快递丢他俩。</p><p>哎呀好气啊咋办。</p><p><strong>而现在，这双方自己扩大了被打击的可能性，增大了受力面。</strong></p><p><strong>这俩互相进入对方的地盘开始打，那给他们一起上强度的机会来了。</strong></p><p><strong>只要打起来，把人都拖下水，那本质上已经赢了。</strong></p><p>因为整个阿里的所有资源，都可以拿来兑掉他们了，之前不兑是因为只能跟做电商的兑电商，只能跟做外卖的兑外卖，性价比不够高。</p><p>而现在，当双方都进入对方领域的时候，阿里作为第三方，烧钱的性价比就起来了。</p><p><strong>过去烧一块钱，就是烧一块钱。</strong></p><p><strong>现在烧一块钱，同时可以烧到红黄两家的两块业务（即时零售和电商）。</strong></p><p>当烧钱同时可以给他们双线兑子，那么战争的交换就足够有性价比了。</p><p>这不拉满了烧？</p><p>马路上谁都敢欺负下成龙老师70多了，而一旦走进宜家，就是三体人来了也害怕他。</p><p>阿里现在就是，好不容易你们进来了，要把门给锁上，都别跑。</p><p>一起烧。</p><p><strong>3</strong></p><p><strong>再说一遍，这是一场战争。</strong></p><p>战争的逻辑不是赚多少赔多少，不是赚差价，不是的。</p><p>这些只是战术，不是战略，也不是目的。</p><p>战争目的是当年火云邪神说的。</p><blockquote><p>要么打死两位，要么被两位打死。</p></blockquote><p>战争是我先敞开了赔，只要能把你们拉下水，一起赔，那就不算赔。</p><p>这是我之前写过的逻辑，再看看前面三家财报的烧钱数字对比，是不是预言家？<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6140d15dffd0c87508c01aaf437b019d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\"/></p><p>就算大家都赔了一样多，甚至我比你赔更多，没关系。</p><p>这不重要，重要的是把你死死按在牌桌，然后大家比体量，一起流血吧。</p><p>只要我，只要我比你更有钱，比你撑更久，比你更能烧，有更多的其他业务来支撑烧钱，那么结果也是一样的。</p><p>战争打的是总体资源。</p><p>如果大家短期战术都差不多，那本质拼的就是长期的造血能力。</p><p>现在，到了算战损比以及这个损失在我这里还能顶多久的地步了。</p><p>现在，如果你不打了，你之前的投入要面临归责问题。</p><p>你继续打，那大家比吧。</p><p>我已经无所谓数字了，只要你顶不住，那最后都是我的。</p><p>那么，大家。</p><p>饿了么？</p></body></html>","source":"bfxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-29 20:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ><strong>半佛仙人</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。图片我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。行了，先看...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d2c29cc3e5b067e7021bf111066873","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136523120","content_text":"这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。图片我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。行了，先看具体数据。先看红黄两家的Q2财报，可以说都是砸重金了，实打实的钱。再看刚发的，阿里的财报，阿里烧了多少？跟那两家差不多。图片为什么之前我就说阿里非常聪明和狠？一方面是，他们出手的时候是在红黄打过一轮之后，如果这是一场拳击，那就是在对方力竭换气的一瞬间出拳。就这一瞬间的一拳，就会影响比赛走向。另一方面，当两方打过一轮算账的时候，再加入，可以让双方都没法脱离战争，不然对方之前就白打了。这个白打，不仅仅是算账算不过来了，更关键的是，烧了这么多钱如果白烧了，如此之高的沉没成本，需要有人为之前的决策，负责。那么，谁负责？付得起责吗？所以有些折腾看起来莫名其妙，但必须折腾，因为不折腾，里面就要有人为之前的折腾负责。一样的道理，当阿里开始下场砸钱的时候，如果红黄里面没有人想要为此负责，那就必须，烧下去。只有这样，才能避免思考之前的责任归谁的问题。别管公司了，先管管自己吧。2如果到这里，阿里仅仅只是聪明。更关键的是，为什么要从集团层面出手，不让他们退场？这就到了阿里狠的地方了。红黄的博弈本身只是商业博弈，是存在一个商业概念的，是有一个商业标准和目的的。但凡商业标准，大家其实是数字和差价游戏，算的是赚和赔，有的赚就玩，赚不了就不玩儿。而阿里不这么理解。在阿里的概念里，这是一场战争。是一个重创同行们的好机会。过去在外卖领域只是老二，在电商领域老大当的也不稳，尽管自己旗下有很多业务但好像在这俩领域都使不上。你没法用钉钉去扎他俩，也没法用阿里云去算计他俩，没法用优酷来勾引他俩，没法用高德去规划他俩，没法用菜鸟的快递丢他俩。哎呀好气啊咋办。而现在，这双方自己扩大了被打击的可能性，增大了受力面。这俩互相进入对方的地盘开始打，那给他们一起上强度的机会来了。只要打起来，把人都拖下水，那本质上已经赢了。因为整个阿里的所有资源，都可以拿来兑掉他们了，之前不兑是因为只能跟做电商的兑电商，只能跟做外卖的兑外卖，性价比不够高。而现在，当双方都进入对方领域的时候，阿里作为第三方，烧钱的性价比就起来了。过去烧一块钱，就是烧一块钱。现在烧一块钱，同时可以烧到红黄两家的两块业务（即时零售和电商）。当烧钱同时可以给他们双线兑子，那么战争的交换就足够有性价比了。这不拉满了烧？马路上谁都敢欺负下成龙老师70多了，而一旦走进宜家，就是三体人来了也害怕他。阿里现在就是，好不容易你们进来了，要把门给锁上，都别跑。一起烧。3再说一遍，这是一场战争。战争的逻辑不是赚多少赔多少，不是赚差价，不是的。这些只是战术，不是战略，也不是目的。战争目的是当年火云邪神说的。要么打死两位，要么被两位打死。战争是我先敞开了赔，只要能把你们拉下水，一起赔，那就不算赔。这是我之前写过的逻辑，再看看前面三家财报的烧钱数字对比，是不是预言家？就算大家都赔了一样多，甚至我比你赔更多，没关系。这不重要，重要的是把你死死按在牌桌，然后大家比体量，一起流血吧。只要我，只要我比你更有钱，比你撑更久，比你更能烧，有更多的其他业务来支撑烧钱，那么结果也是一样的。战争打的是总体资源。如果大家短期战术都差不多，那本质拼的就是长期的造血能力。现在，到了算战损比以及这个损失在我这里还能顶多久的地步了。现在，如果你不打了，你之前的投入要面临归责问题。你继续打，那大家比吧。我已经无所谓数字了，只要你顶不住，那最后都是我的。那么，大家。饿了么？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":467554994221320,"gmtCreate":1755166153894,"gmtModify":1755166326891,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"利润下滑，业务增加有限，不打","listText":"利润下滑，业务增加有限，不打","text":"利润下滑，业务增加有限，不打","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467554994221320","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1255,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":465443263820208,"gmtCreate":1754658428198,"gmtModify":1754659312911,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4207628821002482","authorIdStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"股票当然是投资，买入价值低估获利价值实现时。赌博是概率游戏，而股票是综合多个因素的博弈","listText":"股票当然是投资，买入价值低估获利价值实现时。赌博是概率游戏，而股票是综合多个因素的博弈","text":"股票当然是投资，买入价值低估获利价值实现时。赌博是概率游戏，而股票是综合多个因素的博弈","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/465443263820208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1320,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":472845797315272,"gmtCreate":1756472361871,"gmtModify":1756472451971,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207628821002482","idStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","listText":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","text":"浪费几分钟，基本上都是情绪化表达","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/472845797315272","repostId":"1136523120","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1136523120","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1756469647,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1136523120?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-29 20:14","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1136523120","media":"半佛仙人","summary":"这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。</p><p>前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。</p><p>阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。</p><p>（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3aa0610162a502d414897522dc559d6c\" tg-width=\"445\" tg-height=\"126\"/></p><p>这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。</p><p>这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7ae10291f892e7d66dc11f27340f435b\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"934\" tg-height=\"205\"/><span>图片</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d23d0477e9b5415c9f634c2aacd2d13c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"165\"/></p><p>我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。</p><p>行了，先看具体数据。</p><p>先看红黄两家的Q2财报，可以说都是砸重金了，实打实的钱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5fa0a5fee2043e5ddde8f375a6f500ae\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"981\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9270231fbcc42de5e1217f39ac6fe2e9\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"398\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd9d6f25abe46a58d70eb8b072bd7ad8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"425\"/></p><p>再看刚发的，阿里的财报，阿里烧了多少？</p><p>跟那两家差不多。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e850ce5ac248a99767197819d454941\" title=\"图片\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"1526\"/><span>图片</span></p><p>为什么之前我就说阿里非常聪明和狠？</p><p>一方面是，他们出手的时候是在红黄打过一轮之后，如果这是一场拳击，那就是在对方力竭换气的一瞬间出拳。</p><p>就这一瞬间的一拳，就会影响比赛走向。</p><p>另一方面，当两方打过一轮算账的时候，再加入，可以让双方都没法脱离战争，不然对方之前就白打了。</p><p>这个白打，不仅仅是算账算不过来了，更关键的是，烧了这么多钱如果白烧了，如此之高的沉没成本，需要有人为之前的决策，负责。</p><p><strong>那么，谁负责？</strong></p><p><strong>付得起责吗？</strong></p><p><strong>所以有些折腾看起来莫名其妙，但必须折腾，因为不折腾，里面就要有人为之前的折腾负责。</strong></p><p>一样的道理，当阿里开始下场砸钱的时候，如果红黄里面没有人想要为此负责，那就必须，烧下去。</p><p>只有这样，才能避免思考之前的责任归谁的问题。</p><p>别管公司了，先管管自己吧。</p><p><strong>2</strong></p><p>如果到这里，阿里仅仅只是聪明。</p><p>更关键的是，为什么要从集团层面出手，不让他们退场？</p><p>这就到了阿里狠的地方了。</p><p>红黄的博弈本身只是商业博弈，是存在一个商业概念的，是有一个商业标准和目的的。</p><p>但凡商业标准，大家其实是数字和差价游戏，算的是赚和赔，有的赚就玩，赚不了就不玩儿。</p><p>而阿里不这么理解。</p><p><strong>在阿里的概念里，这是一场战争。</strong></p><p><strong>是一个重创同行们的好机会。</strong></p><p>过去在外卖领域只是老二，在电商领域老大当的也不稳，尽管自己旗下有很多业务但好像在这俩领域都使不上。</p><p>你没法用钉钉去扎他俩，也没法用阿里云去算计他俩，没法用优酷来勾引他俩，没法用高德去规划他俩，没法用菜鸟的快递丢他俩。</p><p>哎呀好气啊咋办。</p><p><strong>而现在，这双方自己扩大了被打击的可能性，增大了受力面。</strong></p><p><strong>这俩互相进入对方的地盘开始打，那给他们一起上强度的机会来了。</strong></p><p><strong>只要打起来，把人都拖下水，那本质上已经赢了。</strong></p><p>因为整个阿里的所有资源，都可以拿来兑掉他们了，之前不兑是因为只能跟做电商的兑电商，只能跟做外卖的兑外卖，性价比不够高。</p><p>而现在，当双方都进入对方领域的时候，阿里作为第三方，烧钱的性价比就起来了。</p><p><strong>过去烧一块钱，就是烧一块钱。</strong></p><p><strong>现在烧一块钱，同时可以烧到红黄两家的两块业务（即时零售和电商）。</strong></p><p>当烧钱同时可以给他们双线兑子，那么战争的交换就足够有性价比了。</p><p>这不拉满了烧？</p><p>马路上谁都敢欺负下成龙老师70多了，而一旦走进宜家，就是三体人来了也害怕他。</p><p>阿里现在就是，好不容易你们进来了，要把门给锁上，都别跑。</p><p>一起烧。</p><p><strong>3</strong></p><p><strong>再说一遍，这是一场战争。</strong></p><p>战争的逻辑不是赚多少赔多少，不是赚差价，不是的。</p><p>这些只是战术，不是战略，也不是目的。</p><p>战争目的是当年火云邪神说的。</p><blockquote><p>要么打死两位，要么被两位打死。</p></blockquote><p>战争是我先敞开了赔，只要能把你们拉下水，一起赔，那就不算赔。</p><p>这是我之前写过的逻辑，再看看前面三家财报的烧钱数字对比，是不是预言家？<br/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6140d15dffd0c87508c01aaf437b019d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"606\"/></p><p>就算大家都赔了一样多，甚至我比你赔更多，没关系。</p><p>这不重要，重要的是把你死死按在牌桌，然后大家比体量，一起流血吧。</p><p>只要我，只要我比你更有钱，比你撑更久，比你更能烧，有更多的其他业务来支撑烧钱，那么结果也是一样的。</p><p>战争打的是总体资源。</p><p>如果大家短期战术都差不多，那本质拼的就是长期的造血能力。</p><p>现在，到了算战损比以及这个损失在我这里还能顶多久的地步了。</p><p>现在，如果你不打了，你之前的投入要面临归责问题。</p><p>你继续打，那大家比吧。</p><p>我已经无所谓数字了，只要你顶不住，那最后都是我的。</p><p>那么，大家。</p><p>饿了么？</p></body></html>","source":"bfxr","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n外卖战火越猛，阿里笑的越疯\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-29 20:14 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ><strong>半佛仙人</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。图片我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。行了，先看...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e2d2c29cc3e5b067e7021bf111066873","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/pIzkhwulmyQ72RWthXifrQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1136523120","content_text":"这几天外卖三国杀陆续发财报了。前两家发的时候我没说话，因为在等阿里的财报。阿里的财报又一次验证了我之前的说法，那就是阿里的狠辣和聪明超出了很多人的意料。（截至发稿，阿里盘前涨超4%。）这次烧钱大战，给阿里烧的笑起来了。这是几个月前那红黄两家打架的时候，我发的两篇文章，当初很多人笑我，但今天再说一遍，佛子哥不玩马后炮。图片我当初不仅说他们聪明和狠，并且还直接说了阿里作为背后的巨头会入场。行了，先看具体数据。先看红黄两家的Q2财报，可以说都是砸重金了，实打实的钱。再看刚发的，阿里的财报，阿里烧了多少？跟那两家差不多。图片为什么之前我就说阿里非常聪明和狠？一方面是，他们出手的时候是在红黄打过一轮之后，如果这是一场拳击，那就是在对方力竭换气的一瞬间出拳。就这一瞬间的一拳，就会影响比赛走向。另一方面，当两方打过一轮算账的时候，再加入，可以让双方都没法脱离战争，不然对方之前就白打了。这个白打，不仅仅是算账算不过来了，更关键的是，烧了这么多钱如果白烧了，如此之高的沉没成本，需要有人为之前的决策，负责。那么，谁负责？付得起责吗？所以有些折腾看起来莫名其妙，但必须折腾，因为不折腾，里面就要有人为之前的折腾负责。一样的道理，当阿里开始下场砸钱的时候，如果红黄里面没有人想要为此负责，那就必须，烧下去。只有这样，才能避免思考之前的责任归谁的问题。别管公司了，先管管自己吧。2如果到这里，阿里仅仅只是聪明。更关键的是，为什么要从集团层面出手，不让他们退场？这就到了阿里狠的地方了。红黄的博弈本身只是商业博弈，是存在一个商业概念的，是有一个商业标准和目的的。但凡商业标准，大家其实是数字和差价游戏，算的是赚和赔，有的赚就玩，赚不了就不玩儿。而阿里不这么理解。在阿里的概念里，这是一场战争。是一个重创同行们的好机会。过去在外卖领域只是老二，在电商领域老大当的也不稳，尽管自己旗下有很多业务但好像在这俩领域都使不上。你没法用钉钉去扎他俩，也没法用阿里云去算计他俩，没法用优酷来勾引他俩，没法用高德去规划他俩，没法用菜鸟的快递丢他俩。哎呀好气啊咋办。而现在，这双方自己扩大了被打击的可能性，增大了受力面。这俩互相进入对方的地盘开始打，那给他们一起上强度的机会来了。只要打起来，把人都拖下水，那本质上已经赢了。因为整个阿里的所有资源，都可以拿来兑掉他们了，之前不兑是因为只能跟做电商的兑电商，只能跟做外卖的兑外卖，性价比不够高。而现在，当双方都进入对方领域的时候，阿里作为第三方，烧钱的性价比就起来了。过去烧一块钱，就是烧一块钱。现在烧一块钱，同时可以烧到红黄两家的两块业务（即时零售和电商）。当烧钱同时可以给他们双线兑子，那么战争的交换就足够有性价比了。这不拉满了烧？马路上谁都敢欺负下成龙老师70多了，而一旦走进宜家，就是三体人来了也害怕他。阿里现在就是，好不容易你们进来了，要把门给锁上，都别跑。一起烧。3再说一遍，这是一场战争。战争的逻辑不是赚多少赔多少，不是赚差价，不是的。这些只是战术，不是战略，也不是目的。战争目的是当年火云邪神说的。要么打死两位，要么被两位打死。战争是我先敞开了赔，只要能把你们拉下水，一起赔，那就不算赔。这是我之前写过的逻辑，再看看前面三家财报的烧钱数字对比，是不是预言家？就算大家都赔了一样多，甚至我比你赔更多，没关系。这不重要，重要的是把你死死按在牌桌，然后大家比体量，一起流血吧。只要我，只要我比你更有钱，比你撑更久，比你更能烧，有更多的其他业务来支撑烧钱，那么结果也是一样的。战争打的是总体资源。如果大家短期战术都差不多，那本质拼的就是长期的造血能力。现在，到了算战损比以及这个损失在我这里还能顶多久的地步了。现在，如果你不打了，你之前的投入要面临归责问题。你继续打，那大家比吧。我已经无所谓数字了，只要你顶不住，那最后都是我的。那么，大家。饿了么？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":1.1,"09988":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":494425181753808,"gmtCreate":1761739444801,"gmtModify":1761739456786,"author":{"id":"4207628821002482","authorId":"4207628821002482","name":"复利er","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4207628821002482","idStr":"4207628821002482"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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