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飞翔678
08-04
这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹
SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”
飞翔678
07-04
这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了
SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装
飞翔678
05-15
**公司
闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约
飞翔678
2025-07-25
懂个屁
特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”
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今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","listText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","text":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/592895919739240","repostId":"1191337680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191337680","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785747178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191337680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-03 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191337680","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的Rubin Ultra预览版规格低于市场此前预期。SemiAnalysis表示，MI455X取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-03 16:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","DELL":"戴尔","AVGG":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Leverage Shares","DLLL":"2倍做多DELL 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Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约640万美元。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近40%降至约28%，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由4%提升至12%。换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约0.7万亿韩元，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到7300亿美元，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07388":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"SMCI":2,"AMYY":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"HPE":2,"AMDY":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"DELL":2,"NVDD":0.6,"DLLL":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SMCC":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AVGO":2,"NVDL":0.6,"MU":2,"SMCX":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDA":2,"AMDW":0.6,"AMD":2,"NVII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582055511184664,"gmtCreate":1783134898947,"gmtModify":1783137554962,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","listText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","text":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582055511184664","repostId":"2648520346","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648520346","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782952915,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2648520346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 08:41","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648520346","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代TPU（Humufish）将弃用台积电CoWoS，改用英特尔EMIB-T封装。EMIB-T通过硅通孔实现垂直供电，不仅去除了昂贵的中介层、大幅降低成本并提高硅片利用率，还能更好地支持下一代HBM。然而，EMIB-T作为新技术，其大规模量产的良率仍是英特尔面临的最大考验。","content":"<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776021","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2648520346","content_text":"7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃台积电的CoWoS封装，转而采用英特尔的EMIB-T技术。\n目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。谷歌作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，\n\n“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”\n\n两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。\n\n摆脱光罩限制与降低成本\n台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。\nSemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”\n除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。\n更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。\n相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。\n\n \n \n垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM\nHumufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。\nSemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”\n这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。\n\n架构适配性与量产大考\n针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。\n“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”\nNutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。\n\n量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考\n尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”\n\nSemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”\n只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSMZ":0.6,"TSMG":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"LINT":0.6,"INTW":0.6,"04335":1.92,"GOOP":0.6,"TSMX":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOGL":1.95,"STSM":0.6,"TSMU":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"03145":0.6,"TSMY":0.6,"INTC":1.92,"GGLL":0.6,"TSM":1.88,"GOOX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564487666640392,"gmtCreate":1778848761062,"gmtModify":1778850246986,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**公司","listText":"**公司","text":"**公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564487666640392","repostId":"2635728701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2635728701","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778832487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2635728701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 16:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2635728701","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东 、高通等。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。</p><p>闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。</p><p>此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。</p><p>如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。</p><p>此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。</p><p>据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司少于5%流通股的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求。</p><p>SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。</p><p>周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。</p><p>更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app</p><p>更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)</p> </body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 16:08 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2635728701","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东(MRK.US)、高通(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司少于5%流通股的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求。SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDK":1.96,"SNXX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460556196311360,"gmtCreate":1753451481076,"gmtModify":1753452543723,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4212060604166930","authorIdStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"懂个屁","listText":"懂个屁","text":"懂个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460556196311360","repostId":"2554175982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554175982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1753424940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2554175982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-25 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554175982","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-25 14:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554175982","content_text":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：1. 技术可靠性存疑：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。2. 消费者行为转变困难：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。3. 盈利能力证明缺失：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：Robotaxi进展缓慢：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。Optimus人形机器人重新设计：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSBC":1,"TSLA":1,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":460556196311360,"gmtCreate":1753451481076,"gmtModify":1753452543723,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"懂个屁","listText":"懂个屁","text":"懂个屁","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/460556196311360","repostId":"2554175982","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2554175982","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1753424940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2554175982?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-07-25 14:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2554175982","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n特斯拉还要跌60%？汇丰：撑起高估值的Robotaxi有三大“硬伤”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-07-25 14:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为<strong>特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。</strong>对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce802246a339a87ce1b139c0fb699b5c\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。</p><h2 id=\"id_2577450297\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>1. 技术可靠性存疑</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>2. 消费者行为转变困难</strong>：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>3. 盈利能力证明缺失</strong>：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。</p><h2 id=\"id_759946975\" style=\"text-align: left;\">汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Robotaxi进展缓慢</strong>：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>Optimus人形机器人重新设计</strong>：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。</p><h2 id=\"id_1587848148\">特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7f403f2302c47d14683b91c04cc7bb4\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"341\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57463ed8d25539dc522df54b4185408f\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"631\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49ab90f6352b6ebbb45091ad18b5a2e","relate_stocks":{"LU1861220033.SGD":"Blackrock Next Generation Technology A2 SGD-H","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","TSLL":"2倍做多TSLA ETF-Direxion","LU1435385759.SGD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA SGD-H","LU2756315664.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMI\" (SGDHDG) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","BK4555":"新能源车","LU1429558221.USD":"Natixis Loomis Sayles US Growth Equity RA USD","LU1548497426.USD":"安联环球人工智能AT Acc","LU0823414478.USD":"法巴经典能源转换基金","IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0466842654.USD":"HSBC ISLAMIC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1267930227.SGD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"AS\" (SGD) ACC A","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU1852331112.SGD":"Blackrock World Technology Fund A2 SGD-H","BK4521":"英国银行股","BK4612":"AI芯片","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","TSYW.SI":"TESLA 3xLongSG261006","LU0128525689.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\"(USD) ACC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 INC","LU2250418816.HKD":"BGF WORLD TECHNOLOGY \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU1778281490.HKD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL LOWER CARBON EQUITY \"AD\" (HKD) INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV GLOBAL OPPORTUNITY SUSTAINABLE (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU2063271972.USD":"富兰克林创新领域基金","SG9999015945.SGD":"LionGlobal Disruptive Innovation Fund A SGD","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","LU0052756011.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL BALANCED \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2213496289.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AT\" (HKD) ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A（dist）","BK4207":"综合性银行","LU1145028129.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AQ\" (USD) INC","BK4598":"佩洛西持仓","LU2756315318.SGD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (SGDHDG) INC A","LU2236285917.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","IE00BJLML261.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL EQUITY INDEX \"HCH\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","HSBC":"汇丰","LU2249611893.SGD":"BNP PARIBAS ENERGY TRANSITION \"CRH\" (SGD) ACC","LU0198837287.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - USA GROWTH \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0820561909.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKD) INC","LU0234570918.USD":"高盛全球核心股票组合Acc Close","LU1861215975.USD":"贝莱德新一代科技基金 A2","LU0316494557.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL FUNDAMENTAL STRATEGIES \"A\" ACC","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3751869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2554175982","content_text":"汇丰认为，特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。叠加汽车业务业绩下滑和人形机器人进展缓慢，汇丰大幅下调特斯拉业绩预期，维持“减持”评级，目标价为120美元，较目前股价有超过60%的下跌空间。特斯拉汽车销售遭遇十年来最大降幅，而其计划明年量产的Robotaxi本被寄予厚望，被视为支撑其高估值的核心力量。然而，Robotaxi至今仍存在三大“硬伤”，这无疑给特斯拉的高估值蒙上了阴影。据追风交易台，汇丰银行最新研报对特斯拉的Robotaxi业务泼了一盆冷水，认为特斯拉的Robotaxi业务面临技术验证、消费者习惯改变和盈利能力证明三大根本挑战。对投资者而言，这意味着特斯拉可能被过度高估，汇丰银行维持了120美元的目标价，较当前305.30美元的股价有超过60%的下跌空间。研报指出，特斯拉连续三个季度未能达到市场预期的EBIT，实际上这是12个季度中第11次业绩不及预期。管理层警告未来几个季度仍将面临挑战，而被市场寄予厚望的Robotaxi业务能否如愿支撑股价，存在重大疑问。Robotaxi三大关键挑战：技术、消费习惯与盈利能力报告指出，特斯拉Robotaxi业务的规模化成功需满足三个核心前提条件，而每一个条件都面临重大挑战：1. 技术可靠性存疑：特斯拉需要证明其纯视觉（camera-only）方案在鲁棒性（抗干扰能力）和可靠性上不逊于行业普遍采用的多传感器融合方案。而根据汇丰的报告，奥斯汀试点的早期迹象并不乐观。报告指出，奥斯汀的Robotaxi试点已积累了约7,000英里的行驶里程，仅涉及少量车辆。如果按照平均每次行程4英里计算（与Waymo相同），这相当于每辆车每天仅完成11次行程，不到Waymo车辆的一半。2. 消费者行为转变困难：Robotaxi若要从公共交通的替代品发展为普及应用，需要消费者放弃私家车所有权观念，这被汇丰报告形容为“一个巨大的挑战”。报告强调，这“不是一个小要求”，涉及到根深蒂固的消费者习惯变革。3. 盈利能力证明缺失：特斯拉需要证明其Robotaxi业务能够盈利，而这似乎在公司内部也存在争议。汇丰报告指出，作为参照，Waymo在2024年进行了约60亿美元的股权融资，这表明其距离盈利尚有距离。汽车业务业绩下滑，自动驾驶和人形机器人进展缓慢报告还指出，特斯拉汽车业务面临多重结构性挑战：产品线老化、市场竞争加剧、品牌形象受损，以及连续多季度业绩未达市场预期。关税和美国电动汽车激励措施的结束将进一步影响需求。尽管马斯克多次表示自动驾驶和人形机器人最终将使特斯拉成为世界上最有价值的公司。但其实际进展有限：Robotaxi进展缓慢：奥斯汀试点项目成果有限。Optimus人形机器人重新设计：马斯克表示Optimus设计正在从2.5版本升级到3.0（完全新设计），预计5年内月产能可达10万台——虽然增长迅速，但远低于此前暗示的数十亿台规模。汇丰表示，交付的时间和规模是他们的首要担忧。特斯拉业绩承压，汇丰维持“减持”评级汇丰对特斯拉2025-2027年的营收预期下调1-3%，毛利润预期下调3-7%，营业收入预期大幅下调16-27%。分析师指出，特斯拉的自动化汽车面临结构性问题——产品组合老化、竞争加剧以及品牌问题继续拖累销量。值得注意的是，汇丰将2025年和2026年的运营利润预测分别下调了27%和23%，目前预测水平比一年前低约66%。该行对特斯拉短期盈利能力的看法日益悲观。基于以上因素，汇丰维持特斯拉“减持”评级，目标价不变，为120美元，该估值基于DCF和同行业倍数估值两种方法的50:50加权。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSBC":1,"TSLA":1,"TSYW.SI":0.6,"TSLL":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2857,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":564487666640392,"gmtCreate":1778848761062,"gmtModify":1778850246986,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"**公司","listText":"**公司","text":"**公司","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/564487666640392","repostId":"2635728701","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2635728701","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1778832487,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2635728701?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-15 16:08","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2635728701","media":"智通财经网","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东 、高通等。","content":"<html><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNDK\">闪迪</a>(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。</p><p>闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。</p><p>此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。</p><p>如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。</p><p>此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。</p><p>据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRK\">默沙东</a>(MRK.US)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QCOM\">高通</a>(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司少于5%流通股的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求。</p><p>SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。</p><p>周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。</p><p>更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app</p><p>更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)</p> </body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n闪迪(SNDK.US)敦促股东拒绝Tutanota折价“迷你收购”要约\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-05-15 16:08 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","SNXX":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Tradr","SNDK":"闪迪","LU0963586101.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL SMALL CAP EQUITY \"AT\" ACC","LU0054578231.USD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC SUSTAINABLE GLOBAL SMALLCAP \"A2\" (USD) ACC"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1442179.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2635728701","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，闪迪(SNDK.US)周五发布声明，建议股东拒绝Tutanota LLC主动提出的“迷你收购”要约。该要约拟以每股1150美元的价格收购至多10万股闪迪普通股。这一收购数量仅占闪迪截至2026年4月24日已发行股份总数的不到0.07%。闪迪强调，其既不认可也不支持该要约，公司与Tutanota或要约文件没有任何关联，并强烈敦促投资者不要采取任何行动。此次收购报价为1150美元，但前提是闪迪股票在截止日期前的最后一个交易日收盘价必须高于该价格。如果Tutanota不放弃这一条件，参与的股东实际上将获得低于市场公允价值的回报。此外，Tutanota保留将要约期限延长45至180天的权利，这将导致付款时间大幅延迟。闪迪提醒，已提交股份的股东可在当前截止日期(美国东部时间2026年5月20日下午5:00)之前随时撤回股份。据报道，Tutanota于2025年和2026年主动向多家大型公司发出“迷你收购”要约，涉及的公司包括闪迪、默沙东(MRK.US)、高通(QCOM.US)等。“迷你收购要约”指收购方意图购买目标公司少于5%流通股的股份，从而规避美国证券交易委员会(SEC)对大规模收购的严格披露要求。SEC在其网站上警告称，“迷你收购”要约的幕后推手“经常利用迷你收购要约让股东措手不及”，投资者“最终可能以低于市场价格的价格出售股票”。周五美股盘前，闪迪跌0.74%，报1372.46美元。更多港股重磅资讯，下载智通财经app更多港股及海外理财资讯，请点击www.zhitongcaijing.com（搜索“智通财经”）；欲加入智通港股投资群，请加智通客服微信(ztcjkf)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDK":1.96,"SNXX":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":592895919739240,"gmtCreate":1785777557738,"gmtModify":1785777559877,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","listText":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","text":"这个诈骗犯又出来诈骗了 今天深跌反弹 这个机构的信号几乎成了大资金洗盘的暗号 只要这样的信号一出现 不论真假 不去核实 股价先大跌 后反弹 可能日内反弹也可能几天后反弹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/592895919739240","repostId":"1191337680","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1191337680","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1785747178,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191337680?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-03 16:52","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191337680","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的Rubin Ultra预览版规格低于市场此前预期。SemiAnalysis表示，MI455X取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis最新研判：英伟达Rubin Ultra规格缩水，AI服务器开始重新计算“成本账”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-03 16:52</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">研究机构SemiAnalysis最新报告指出，英伟达向核心客户展示的<strong>Rubin Ultra</strong>预览版规格低于市场此前预期。原本市场预计将搭载<strong>HBM4E 12-Hi、384GB</strong>配置，但最新版本调整为<strong>HBM4 8-Hi、192GB</strong>，HBM容量大幅减少，芯片功耗也由约<strong>2300W</strong>降至<strong>1800W</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不仅英伟达，AMD也采取了类似策略。SemiAnalysis表示，<strong>MI455X</strong>取消了LPDDR5X配置，并下调DDR5容量，整机DRAM预算明显收缩。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">报告认为，这背后反映的是AI服务器厂商开始重新平衡成本投入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">随着HBM价格持续上涨，Rubin Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约<strong>660万美元</strong>升至<strong>800万美元</strong>。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约<strong>640万美元</strong>。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近<strong>40%降至约28%</strong>，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由<strong>4%提升至12%</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到<strong>60.54万亿韩元</strong>，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约<strong>0.7万亿韩元</strong>，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了<strong>杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结</strong>带来的短期冲击。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到<strong>7300亿美元</strong>，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03e38a3a3c63bd5a9d8d8ca2d384d1c5","relate_stocks":{"DIPS":"做空NVDA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","NVDW":"NVDA周配息ETF-Roundhill","07788":"南方两倍做多英伟达","AMUU":"2倍做多AMD ETF-Direxion","AMDU":"Defiance Leveraged Long + Income AMD ETF","DELL":"戴尔","AVGG":"2倍做多AVGO ETF-Leverage Shares","DLLL":"2倍做多DELL 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Ultra单机架物料成本（BOM）一度由约660万美元升至800万美元。调整配置后，BOM重新降至约640万美元。与此同时，HBM成本占整机BOM的比重由接近40%降至约28%，节省出来的预算则更多投入到高速互联网络，网络成本占比由4%提升至12%。换句话说，当HBM成本不断攀升时，AI服务器厂商开始重新评估资金配置，希望将更多预算投入到提升整体系统性能和扩展能力的环节，而不仅仅是继续增加单卡内存容量。这一变化也意味着产业链的利润正在重新分配。上游存储厂商仍然是最大受益者。SK海力士第二季度营业利润达到60.54万亿韩元，创历史新高；三星电子半导体业务贡献了集团**99.7%**的营业利润。相比之下，下游终端厂商则面临更大的成本压力。三星移动业务第二季度亏损约0.7万亿韩元，智能手机厂商普遍抵制存储厂商提出的涨价方案，产业链利润进一步向上游集中。不过，SemiAnalysis认为，近期AI存储板块股价大幅波动，并不意味着行业基本面发生根本变化，更大程度上反映了杠杆资金出清及外资获利了结带来的短期冲击。从基本面来看，HBM供给依然偏紧，而AI基础设施投资热度仍未降温。预计2026年全球五大云服务厂商资本开支合计将达到7300亿美元，同比接近翻倍。在AI需求持续增长的背景下，HBM龙头厂商的长期景气逻辑仍然存在，只是随着HBM价格持续上涨，整机厂商未来可能会更加关注成本效率，在性能、成本和功耗之间寻找新的平衡。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"07388":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"AVGG":0.6,"07788":0.6,"AVS":0.6,"SMYY":0.6,"SMCI":2,"AMYY":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"SMCL":0.6,"AVL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"SMCY":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"MUU":0.6,"AMDL":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"HPE":2,"AMDY":0.6,"AMUU":0.6,"DELL":2,"NVDD":0.6,"DLLL":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"SMCC":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"MULL":0.6,"AVGU":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"SMCZ":0.6,"AMDG":0.6,"AVGO":2,"NVDL":0.6,"MU":2,"SMCX":0.6,"AMDD":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"AMDU":0.6,"DAMD":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"AVGW":0.6,"AVGX":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDA":2,"AMDW":0.6,"AMD":2,"NVII":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582055511184664,"gmtCreate":1783134898947,"gmtModify":1783137554962,"author":{"id":"4212060604166930","authorId":"4212060604166930","name":"飞翔678","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4212060604166930","idStr":"4212060604166930"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","listText":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","text":"这个王八蛋诈骗犯有出来招摇撞骗了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582055511184664","repostId":"2648520346","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2648520346","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1782952915,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2648520346?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-02 08:41","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2648520346","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SemiAnalysis透露，谷歌下一代TPU（Humufish）将弃用台积电CoWoS，改用英特尔EMIB-T封装。EMIB-T通过硅通孔实现垂直供电，不仅去除了昂贵的中介层、大幅降低成本并提高硅片利用率，还能更好地支持下一代HBM。然而，EMIB-T作为新技术，其大规模量产的良率仍是英特尔面临的最大考验。","content":"<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>SemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSemiAnalysis：谷歌下一代TPU将采用英特尔EMIB-T封装\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-02 08:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><body><p>7月1日，据知名半导体分析机构SemiAnalysis透露，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>下一代代号为Humufish的TPU将放弃<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>的CoWoS封装，转而采用<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>的EMIB-T技术。</p>\n<p>目前，台积电的CoWoS是AI芯片封装的行业默认标准。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>作为头部科技巨头，其旗舰产品若成功迁移至英特尔的封装体系，将对台积电造成冲击。SemiAnalysis在X平台称，</p>\n<blockquote>\n<p>“谷歌下一代TPU，代号Humufish，将采用英特尔EMIB-T，而不是台积电CoWoS。CoWoS是行业默认选择，这正是一个旗舰部件转向其他方案值得关注的原因。”</p>\n</blockquote>\n<p>两者的核心区别在于封装的物理路径。CoWoS将所有的裸片（dies）放置在一个大型的硅或RDL中介层上。而英特尔的EMIB技术，则是将小型硅桥直接嵌入有机基板中，仅仅在需要芯片间连接的地方才进行桥接。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/dc414855-7c00-49df-9436-064e5440c8d2.png\"/></p>\n<h2>摆脱光罩限制与降低成本</h2>\n<p>台积电CoWoS的硅中介层是通过光刻技术打印的，因此其物理尺寸受到光罩极限的严格限制。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称：“单片版本（CoWoS-S）的极限大约是光罩尺寸的3.3倍，这也是台积电转向CoWoS-L的原因。EMIB不受光罩极限的束缚，因此它是一项扩展性强得多的技术。”</p>\n<p>除了尺寸突破，成本和效率是另一个核心驱动力。EMIB完全去除了昂贵的中介层，使得封装成本显著降低。</p>\n<p>更直观的差异体现在硅片利用率上。晶圆是圆形的，如果要从中切割出大型中介层，边缘区域会产生大量浪费，且尺寸越大良率越低。这就好比用圆面团切大块的方饼，边角料注定很多。</p>\n<p>相比之下，SemiAnalysis表示：“微小的硅桥可以密集排列，几乎没有浪费。”此外，这一选择也让买家在台积电之外，获得了第二家供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/66d96e90-cc5f-47da-98b9-64ddff22df65.png\"/></p>\n<div> </div>\n<div> </div>\n<h2><strong>垂直供电加持，EMIB-T适配下一代HBM</strong></h2>\n<p>Humufish具体采用的是EMIB-T技术，其中的“T”代表硅通孔（TSV）。这一设计解决了传统封装中的供电痛点。</p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis解释称，普通的EMIB在硅桥中没有过孔，电力必须绕过它通过基板传输，这给供电带来了压力。“EMIB-T将电力垂直直接穿过硅桥，并增加了电容器和接地层以提供更纯净的电力。”</p>\n<p>这种架构上的升级，正是为了让芯片能够适配下一代HBM（高带宽内存）和更高带宽的互连需求。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/7be113d1-7bd9-41b5-9b53-10ee1323b5dd.png\"/></p>\n<h2>架构适配性与量产大考</h2>\n<p>针对市场关于台积电CoWoS-L同样使用局部硅桥的讨论，业内独立分析人士Nutty指出，CoWoS-L在基于硅桥的结构之上增加了一个全局RDL层，这虽然提高了布线的灵活性，但也增加了面积和工艺复杂性。</p>\n<p>“对于像Humufish这样似乎针对推理和代理工作负载进行优化的芯片来说，数据流可能更加结构化。”Nutty分析称，“在这种情况下，EMIB仅在需要的地方放置高密度链接的方法，比为全封装布线灵活性买单更加合理。”</p>\n<p>Nutty认为，这正是EMIB-T的重要意义所在。它不仅能减少硅片使用量和封装成本，还能作为受限的CoWoS生态系统之外的第二供应商。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/acc53030-1114-4425-ad5d-a26d3397f5dc.png\"/></p>\n<h2><strong>量产良率成关键，英特尔面临执行力大考</strong></h2>\n<p>尽管架构极具吸引力，但执行力仍是最大的未知数。网友Axi直言：“在吹嘘节省成本之前，先给我们看看良率。”</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://wpimg-wscn.awtmt.com/668a8cd3-cdbf-44aa-b24a-011baa6db190.png\"/></p>\n<p>SemiAnalysis警告称：“普通的EMIB已经大规模出货多年，但EMIB-T是新技术，提供供电的硅桥在扩大制造规模时难度更大。”</p>\n<p>只有当英特尔能够按计划提升良率和产量时，这些优势才能落地。如果英特尔的进度出现延误，谷歌的后备方案依然是产能受限的CoWoS。这场技术迁移的成败，将直接检验英特尔先进封装的真实交付能力。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU0345768153.USD":"NINETY 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