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Jshssjj
10-09
290(万)？
文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题
Jshssjj
06-25
怕高苦命人
美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”
去老虎APP查看更多动态
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17:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122337448","media":"美股速递","summary":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","content":"<p>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</title>\n<style 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17:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 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ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122337448","content_text":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSYW.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449847197909008,"gmtCreate":1750852751217,"gmtModify":1750858541525,"author":{"id":"4213610328024832","authorId":"4213610328024832","name":"Jshssjj","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213610328024832","authorIdStr":"4213610328024832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怕高苦命人","listText":"怕高苦命人","text":"怕高苦命人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449847197909008","repostId":"2546214201","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2546214201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1750851974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2546214201?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-25 19:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2546214201","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。</p><p>目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施大规模关税政策，同时中东地区的冲突又带来了诸多不确定性。尽管如此，美股依然逆风前行，屡创新高，距离历史最高点仅一步之遥。</p><p>但标普500指数涨得越高，人们就越担心其市盈率开始显得过高。数据显示，该指数目前的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的 22 倍，比长期平均水平高出 35%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c0551aa361f1ba317ac654c596e6bf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p>虽然估值本身并非有效的市场择时工具，但鉴于标普 500 指数成分股公司的股价走势远超其企业经营状况，有一种粗略的衡量方法能够直观地反映出估值中这种严重脱节的程度。而此时，投资者正面临着一些关键风险。美国总统特朗普于 7 月 9 日设定的与美国主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的最后期限已日益临近，而下一个财报季也即将拉开帷幕。</p><p>彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保持不变)。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon表示：“目前市场的水平是可持续的，但‘从现在起’我们就不能抱有太高的信心了。今年下半年的盈利预期可能过于乐观了，再加上市盈率正接近周期性高点，这就给盈利增长带来了更大的压力，使其必须超过预期。这并非不可能实现的目标，但标准很高。”</p><p>据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。</p><p>他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。周二，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者无需急于调整政策，但较低的通胀水平和劳动力招聘的疲软态势可能意味着今年会更早地进行降息。</p><p>迄今为止，即便基本面与股价上涨背道而驰，华尔街的策略师们仍建议投资者将任何可能出现的回调视为买入良机——尤其是投资于科技股和成长型股票。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-25 19:46 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2546214201","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施大规模关税政策，同时中东地区的冲突又带来了诸多不确定性。尽管如此，美股依然逆风前行，屡创新高，距离历史最高点仅一步之遥。但标普500指数涨得越高，人们就越担心其市盈率开始显得过高。数据显示，该指数目前的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的 22 倍，比长期平均水平高出 35%。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。虽然估值本身并非有效的市场择时工具，但鉴于标普 500 指数成分股公司的股价走势远超其企业经营状况，有一种粗略的衡量方法能够直观地反映出估值中这种严重脱节的程度。而此时，投资者正面临着一些关键风险。美国总统特朗普于 7 月 9 日设定的与美国主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的最后期限已日益临近，而下一个财报季也即将拉开帷幕。彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保持不变)。嘉信理财高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon表示：“目前市场的水平是可持续的，但‘从现在起’我们就不能抱有太高的信心了。今年下半年的盈利预期可能过于乐观了，再加上市盈率正接近周期性高点，这就给盈利增长带来了更大的压力，使其必须超过预期。这并非不可能实现的目标，但标准很高。”据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。周二，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者无需急于调整政策，但较低的通胀水平和劳动力招聘的疲软态势可能意味着今年会更早地进行降息。迄今为止，即便基本面与股价上涨背道而驰，华尔街的策略师们仍建议投资者将任何可能出现的回调视为买入良机——尤其是投资于科技股和成长型股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":487329584735056,"gmtCreate":1760006147302,"gmtModify":1760014615070,"author":{"id":"4213610328024832","authorId":"4213610328024832","name":"Jshssjj","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213610328024832","authorIdStr":"4213610328024832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"290(万)？","listText":"290(万)？","text":"290(万)？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/487329584735056","repostId":"1122337448","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1122337448","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球快讯第一时间播报","home_visible":1,"media_name":"美股速递","id":"1004306016","head_image":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a"},"pubTimestamp":1760001465,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122337448?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-10-09 17:17","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122337448","media":"美股速递","summary":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","content":"<p>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1004306016\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/b3bf6d02ad1a6e9e7377eebbb162346a);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">美股速递 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-10-09 17:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LU1861559042.SGD":"日兴方舟颠覆性创新基金B SGD","LU1839511570.USD":"WELLS FARGO GLOBAL FACTOR ENHANCED EQUITY \"I\" (USD) ACC","BK4612":"AI芯片","LU0820561818.USD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金Cl AM DIS","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU1551013342.USD":"Allianz Income and Growth Cl AMg2 DIS USD","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","TSLA":"特斯拉","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4574":"无人驾驶","LU0345769128.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0943347566.SGD":"安联收益及增长平衡基金AM H2-SGD","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0234572021.USD":"高盛美国核心股票组合Acc","LU0820562030.AUD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMH2\" (AUDHDG) H2 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ACC"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122337448","content_text":"文件显示，美国国家公路交通安全管理局对近290万辆特斯拉汽车展开调查，涉及FSD功能启用时的交通安全违规问题","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":1,"TSYW.SI":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449847197909008,"gmtCreate":1750852751217,"gmtModify":1750858541525,"author":{"id":"4213610328024832","authorId":"4213610328024832","name":"Jshssjj","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4213610328024832","authorIdStr":"4213610328024832"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"怕高苦命人","listText":"怕高苦命人","text":"怕高苦命人","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449847197909008","repostId":"2546214201","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2546214201","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1750851974,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2546214201?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-25 19:46","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2546214201","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。</p><p>目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施大规模关税政策，同时中东地区的冲突又带来了诸多不确定性。尽管如此，美股依然逆风前行，屡创新高，距离历史最高点仅一步之遥。</p><p>但标普500指数涨得越高，人们就越担心其市盈率开始显得过高。数据显示，该指数目前的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的 22 倍，比长期平均水平高出 35%。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c0551aa361f1ba317ac654c596e6bf4\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"709\" tg-height=\"379\"/></p><p>虽然估值本身并非有效的市场择时工具，但鉴于标普 500 指数成分股公司的股价走势远超其企业经营状况，有一种粗略的衡量方法能够直观地反映出估值中这种严重脱节的程度。而此时，投资者正面临着一些关键风险。美国总统特朗普于 7 月 9 日设定的与美国主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的最后期限已日益临近，而下一个财报季也即将拉开帷幕。</p><p>彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保持不变)。</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon表示：“目前市场的水平是可持续的，但‘从现在起’我们就不能抱有太高的信心了。今年下半年的盈利预期可能过于乐观了，再加上市盈率正接近周期性高点，这就给盈利增长带来了更大的压力，使其必须超过预期。这并非不可能实现的目标，但标准很高。”</p><p>据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。</p><p>他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。周二，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者无需急于调整政策，但较低的通胀水平和劳动力招聘的疲软态势可能意味着今年会更早地进行降息。</p><p>迄今为止，即便基本面与股价上涨背道而驰，华尔街的策略师们仍建议投资者将任何可能出现的回调视为买入良机——尤其是投资于科技股和成长型股票。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美股面临“高估值风险”，需要两大因素“救场”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-06-25 19:46 北京时间 <a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e90f0093c95026e18203fb8d91b976d","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","SDS":"两倍做空标普500ETF","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","IVV":"标普500指数ETF","SH":"标普500反向ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","UPRO":"三倍做多标普500ETF","SPXU":"三倍做空标普500ETF","OEX":"标普100","OEF":"标普100指数ETF-iShares","BK4581":"高盛持仓","SSO":"两倍做多标普500ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1309647.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2546214201","content_text":"智通财经APP获悉，美国股市近期在多重压力下仍屡创新高，但估值过高引发担忧。标普500市盈率达22倍，远超长期均值35%，多项指标显示其处于历史高位。市场能否持续上涨取决于企业盈利能否超预期或美联储降息。但鉴于估值水平高企，美股盈利超预期门槛很高;与此同时，美联储也表示不急于调整政策。目前，美国股市正遭遇历史上罕见的不利情况。在2025年，众多不利因素一同出现：美国新政府正费力调整全球秩序、实施大规模关税政策，同时中东地区的冲突又带来了诸多不确定性。尽管如此，美股依然逆风前行，屡创新高，距离历史最高点仅一步之遥。但标普500指数涨得越高，人们就越担心其市盈率开始显得过高。数据显示，该指数目前的市盈率为未来12个月预期利润的 22 倍，比长期平均水平高出 35%。美国银行策略师追踪的 20 种此类估值指标中，标普500指数在每一项指标上都被认为估值过高。虽然估值本身并非有效的市场择时工具，但鉴于标普 500 指数成分股公司的股价走势远超其企业经营状况，有一种粗略的衡量方法能够直观地反映出估值中这种严重脱节的程度。而此时，投资者正面临着一些关键风险。美国总统特朗普于 7 月 9 日设定的与美国主要贸易伙伴达成关税协议的最后期限已日益临近，而下一个财报季也即将拉开帷幕。彭博一项模型考虑了诸如美国国债收益率、每股收益以及股票风险溢价等要素，该模型显示，以历史数据计算，标普500指数的合理市盈率应维持在约17.7倍的水平，而目前的市盈率为 23.7倍。要使市盈率回归到合理价值水平，该指标的盈利水平需在未来一年内增长 30%(假设股价保持不变)。嘉信理财高级投资策略师Kevin Gordon表示：“目前市场的水平是可持续的，但‘从现在起’我们就不能抱有太高的信心了。今年下半年的盈利预期可能过于乐观了，再加上市盈率正接近周期性高点，这就给盈利增长带来了更大的压力，使其必须超过预期。这并非不可能实现的目标，但标准很高。”据彭博策略师Gina Martin Adams和Michael Casper称，除了盈利增长之外，美联储大幅降息也将是使标普500指数中的基本面与市场价格之间的差距缩小的另一种方式。他们并未明确说明美联储降息幅度需要达到何种程度才能实现这一目标。周二，美联储主席鲍威尔重申了他的观点，即政策制定者无需急于调整政策，但较低的通胀水平和劳动力招聘的疲软态势可能意味着今年会更早地进行降息。迄今为止，即便基本面与股价上涨背道而驰，华尔街的策略师们仍建议投资者将任何可能出现的回调视为买入良机——尤其是投资于科技股和成长型股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.6,"ESmain":0.6,"MESmain":0.6,"IVV":0.6,"OEF":0.6,"OEX":0.6,"SDS":0.6,"SH":0.6,"SPXU":0.6,"SPY":0.9,"SSO":0.6,"UPRO":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":706,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
