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路边的硬菜

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路边的硬菜

07-17

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 哈哈哈挂99块捡破烂

路边的硬菜

08-04

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 虚火来的！回光反照！

路边的硬菜

03-12

挑！估值这玩意就是套钱的而已，当年诺基亚完蛋只用了一年时间！

路边的硬菜

2025-10-24

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 近期不爆涨我切

路边的硬菜

07-22

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 第一波解禁来了！99块！99块

路边的硬菜

07-10

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 这发行价，那么硬？这都不破位？

路边的硬菜

07-07

$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 今天不破，明天也破！这是定律来的

路边的硬菜

02-03

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 这次跌了不是开玩笑！

路边的硬菜

05-19

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 快跑啊卸磨杀驴来了

路边的硬菜

2025-12-31

$英伟达(NVDA)$ 再不跑就跑不了了

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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它憋不住了吧","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 它憋不住了吧","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/596405398942648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":143,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595397954917152,"gmtCreate":1786378958318,"gmtModify":1786378960645,"author":{"id":"4222906755614502","authorId":"4222906755614502","name":"路边的硬菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4222906755614502","authorIdStr":"4222906755614502"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 这很A仔啊涨点，又可以跌一个月，韭菜香","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 这很A仔啊涨点，又可以跌一个月，韭菜香","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 这很A仔啊涨点，又可以跌一个月，韭菜香","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595397954917152","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":593219061105360,"gmtCreate":1785843362577,"gmtModify":1785843364700,"author":{"id":"4222906755614502","authorId":"4222906755614502","name":"路边的硬菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4222906755614502","authorIdStr":"4222906755614502"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 虚火来的！回光反照！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCX\">$SpaceX(SPCX)$</a> 虚火来的！回光反照！","text":"$SpaceX(SPCX)$ 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哈哈哈挂99块捡破烂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/586780649496856","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4188550895709712","authorId":"4188550895709712","name":"鑫870323","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4188550895709712","authorIdStr":"4188550895709712"},"content":"最多30不能再多了","text":"最多30不能再多了","html":"最多30不能再多了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":584349303926872,"gmtCreate":1783694823646,"gmtModify":1783694825691,"author":{"id":"4222906755614502","authorId":"4222906755614502","name":"路边的硬菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4222906755614502","authorIdStr":"4222906755614502"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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这发行价，那么硬？这都不破位？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/584349303926872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":877,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3493271406476446","authorId":"3493271406476446","name":"Cary111","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3493271406476446","authorIdStr":"3493271406476446"},"content":"2万亿市值还没解禁呢，好戏还在后边呢","text":"2万亿市值还没解禁呢，好戏还在后边呢","html":"2万亿市值还没解禁呢，好戏还在后边呢"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583274351146048,"gmtCreate":1783432403748,"gmtModify":1783432405932,"author":{"id":"4222906755614502","authorId":"4222906755614502","name":"路边的硬菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4222906755614502","authorIdStr":"4222906755614502"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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买不到就画圈圈让它破发！[贱笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/574505983973352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":573536081548560,"gmtCreate":1781053102841,"gmtModify":1781055107847,"author":{"id":"4222906755614502","authorId":"4222906755614502","name":"路边的硬菜","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4222906755614502","authorIdStr":"4222906755614502"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"破发！破发！[生气]&nbsp;&nbsp;","listText":"破发！破发！[生气]&nbsp;&nbsp;","text":"破发！破发！[生气]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/573536081548560","repostId":"2642415418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2642415418","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1781067012,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2642415418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-10 12:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"AI超级牛市进入“SpaceX时刻”！被动资金火箭燃料蓄势点火，AI算力狂潮远未谢幕","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2642415418","media":"智通财经","summary":"预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">近日有不少金融市场专业学者和市场观察人士撰文表示，指数追踪型基金(即指数ETF)即将对SpaceX股票形成数十亿美元的新增需求，<strong>这种前景可能会形成一个反馈循环，进一步推高埃隆·马斯克创立的这家聚焦于“太空探索+AI”的美国超级巨头股票价格与整体市值。</strong>预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。<strong>SpaceX创纪录级别的前所未有IPO规模，已经不只是单个融资事件，更像是一次对全球“AI超级牛市“背景下资金承接能力的极限压力测试，并且在一些分析师看来，SpaceX或成AI超级牛市的强劲放大器，而非泡沫终结者。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在美东时间周二，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，<strong>SpaceX已吸引超过2500亿美元的投资者认购需求，远超该公司计划筹集的750亿美元，有望成为史上最大规模的首次公开募股(即IPO)。如果SpaceX股价因指数资金和稀缺流通盘持续上涨，就可能进一步吸引更多资金追逐，从而进一步强化估值扩张，因此在一些持续看好AI算力狂潮所主导的全球“AI超级牛市”行情大趋势的华尔街分析师们看来，AI超级牛市轨迹远未完结，SpaceX更像是AI超级牛市的受益者和放大器，而非市场所恐慌的“抽水型”终结者</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2500亿美元认购规模本身说明，<strong>当前全球风险资本对于AI算力基础设施、商业航天和下一代聚焦太空的AI基础设施资产的追逐远未降温。如果市场真的处于流动性枯竭边缘，很难出现近4倍超额认购。</strong>相反，这意味着大量长期资金、主权基金、养老金、成长基金和主动型对冲基金资金正在主动寻找能够承载未来十年增长叙事的核心资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从华尔街最新主流观点来看，尽管近期包括ARM、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光</a>、SK海力士以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>在内的全球股市AI算力产业链股价大幅回调，但是在华尔街目前并没有出现“AI超级牛市结束”的悲观共识，反而出现了截然相反现象：越来越多大型投资机构是在上调基准股指目标位，而上调理由几乎都与AI资本开支浪潮、AI基础设施建设进程火热以及AI驱动的盈利扩张有关。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街商业银行巨头<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>明确指出AI算力相关基础设施投资正在支撑企业盈利与风险资产表现;同时强调真正风险来自通胀失控和融资成本上升，而非AI相关的需求衰退或者是“AI泡沫破裂”悲观叙事。 花旗更是逆势将标普500指数年底目标点位从7700点上调至8100点，成为华尔街主流机构中目标最高的投行之一</strong>。</p><h2 id=\"id_3837930952\">当指数基金遇上SpaceX：被动投资正亲手改写价格发现机制</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在此前两家大型指数提供商修改规则允许SpaceX被提前纳入基准指数之后，纳斯达克指数公司(Nasdaq Inc.)、富时罗素指数公司(FTSE Russell)以及MSCI全球指数公司(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSCI\">MSCI Inc</a>.)现在都准备将该公司快速纳入各自的基准指数编制体系。<strong>根据指数再平衡预测服务商Intropic的统计数据，仅在上市交易15天后，约30%的SpaceX自由流通股就将由被动投资者持有。而作为对比，在这些指数提供商们此前较慢的指数纳入规则下，这一比例大约只有4%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">仅仅是对这种机械性需求的强劲预期，就足以对SpaceX股价形成重大上行驱动力，甚至发生在投资基金之间争抢股票之前。再叠加围绕马斯克本人的市场看涨信仰，以及围绕SpaceX与人工智能的市场狂热看涨情绪，风险则在于，指数产品本身可能会推动其最终不得不支付的股票成本价格不断上涨。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bf5e476702d8031dab002c2a7d093f6\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"899\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也使得这家火箭制造商+人工智能领军者的重磅上市，不仅成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)，同时也成为检验被动投资资金对于市场影响力的一次重要“理性测试”。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“每一家指数提供商都试图如此迅速地将SpaceX纳入基准指数，其中一个原因是基准指数之间存在隐性的竞争关系。”长期研究被动投资影响的哈佛商学院助理教授Marco Sammon表示。“这看起来是一个指数编制方法，而非基本面因素，但是可能对价格产生巨大影响的案例。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">根据研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence的最新测算数据，目前被动投资工具约占美国股票型基金资产的大约60%，并控制着标普500指数约五分之一的市值。因此，金融市场的专业学者们长期以来可谓一直担忧，指数化投资可能会扭曲交易行为和市场价格形成机制。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">来自哈佛大学的Sammon此前曾证明，<strong>由于对指数纳入事件的广泛预期，指数成分股纳入所带来的价格上行压力实际上得到了抑制。Sammon发布的一份研究报告显示，背后的核心原因在于，对冲基金和做市商中的专业交易员们往往会提前逐步买入股票进行布局</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在他与John Shim以及Stefano Pegoraro合作撰写的一篇工作论文中，他们发现这些中介机构会在指数基金真正需要股票之前建立仓位，然后在指数基金买入时卖出持仓。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“但是其中的一个重要问题在于，新股被快速纳入指数后，套利者建立库存仓位的时间将大幅缩短。”Sammon表示。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在另一项研究中，他与哈佛大学同事Chris Murray研究了CRSP——一家拥有部分IPO快速纳入机制的指数提供商。他们发现，被提前纳入指数的公司，在指数纳入日前平均跑赢市场5个百分点，而这一效应会在三周内显著回吐。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>他们还发现，被快速纳入指数的公司能够在股票市场IPO中募集更多资金——这表明刚性的被动投资需求确实会产生真实的经济扩张后果。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这实际上相当于对被动投资者征收了一种“影子税(shadow tax)”：他们不得不在高位选择机械买入;与此同时，公司本身却无法直接将股票资产出售给指数追踪基金。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“当纳入窗口被压缩时，同样规模的机械性需求更有可能带来更大的短期价格冲击，并随后出现反转。”Sammon表示，“而这种情况又会因IPO后市场本身波动大、流动性相当较差而被进一步放大。在这种环境下，指数型基金的投资者们所承担的成本将更高。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">对于指数提供商而言，是否快速纳入一家公司，本质上是在两种风险之间做选择：一种是仓促纳入一个被过度炒作的新股标的;另一种则是错过一家行业巨头的上市时刻带来的巨大资金流入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">除了SpaceX之外，全球两大AI应用领军者——OpenAI和Anthropic预计也将在不久之后进行大型IPO。标普道琼斯指数公司(S&amp;P Dow Jones Indices)已经拒绝了可能让这三家公司提前且快速进入美国基准指数的提议，其他指数编制公司则普遍松绑指数纳入规则以更早纳入这些巨额IPO科技公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">“<strong>企业如今是在更加成熟的发展阶段才选择上市，而快速纳入IPO有助于指数更好地代表那些真正对经济增长前景重要的上市公司</strong>。”来自纳斯达克公司的经济学家Phil Mackintosh和Nicole Torskiy上周在公司博客中写道。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>根据他们基于2010年至2025年数据的研究，率先进入罗素1000指数(Russell 1000)的股票，往往能够跑赢标普1500指数(S&amp;P 1500)</strong>。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">即便如此，Intropic表示，对SpaceX股票的被动需求仍可能形成一个<strong>“反身性循环(reflexive loop)”。该机构在周一发布的博客文章中指出，各指数所产生的资金流入规模，将取决于公司在各指数排名日(rank date)的市值。而这一市值本身，可能因为套利者提前建仓、准备迎接机械性买盘而被暂时推高。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">如果参与IPO的投资者们本身也是出于对未来被动资金需求的预期而认购股票，那么这种循环甚至可能进一步延伸至IPO定价阶段，Intropic表示。“被动资金流所带来的价格冲击通常是短暂的，但它可能会在一家企业股票市场旅程中最重要的时刻，扰乱价格发现机制。”这家总部位于伦敦的金融机构写道。</p><h2 id=\"id_2433600793\">SpaceX不是终结者，而是AI算力狂潮的放大器! AI超级牛市或刚进入下半场</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">一些投资者所担忧的“巨额IPO抽水效应”确实存在，但其影响更偏向短期市场结构，<strong>而非长期牛市逻辑。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>的最新研究报告显示，2026年美国总股权发行规模即便达到约6000亿美元，也不到美国股市总市值的1%，理论上市场可以吸收，只是会阶段性挤压小型IPO和部分高拥挤持仓。高盛表示，即便把2026年IPO融资预测上调至2250亿美元，并将增发、可转债、SPAC等纳入后形成更大的股权供给，按美国股市总市值比例以及历史百分位来看仍未突破历史常态;更关键的是，美国企业回购仍是市场最强需求端，并且高盛预计标普500指数仍有盈利增长支撑。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">SpaceX正在从“商业航天与太空探索公司”加速向“全球AI算力基础设施运营商+AI应用巨无霸”转型，<strong>2500亿美元认购规模远超预期足以说明市场接受这一增长叙事，此后也将不断强化“SpaceX创纪录IPO实际上是在扩展AI超级牛市的边界，而不是消耗AI牛市的流动性”的趋势与轨迹。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">ARM、美光、SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMD\">AMD</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>等AI算力产业链领军者们股价近期大幅调整，更多体现的是预期重定价而非产业逻辑逆转。过去一年AI产业链部分环节涨幅过快，市场开始从“无限乐观预期”回归到“实际订单兑现节奏”。<strong>历史上无论是云计算超级周期、智能手机周期还是IT互联网周期，龙头产业趋势往往伴随着20%-40%的阶段性调整。只要全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼带动AI GPU/AI ASIC、数据中心高性能CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、高性能网络基础设施、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层继续大规模扩张与增长，这类调整更接近AI牛市中的换手与估值消化，而非熊市起点。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在一些分析师看来，真正导致“AI泡沫”彻底破裂乃至全球股市陷入熊市的前置条件，<strong>不是SpaceX史无前例IPO上市本身，而是SpaceX极高估值IPO叠加10年及以上长期限美债收益率创纪录式上行、企业盈利大幅放缓、AI资本开支放缓、AI创收回报遭遇投资者们一致质疑、被动资金机械调仓和主动基金赎回压力同时出现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">从全球资本流向观察，<strong>目前更像是AI超级牛市进入第二阶段。</strong>第一阶段由AI GPU和ASIC主导的超大规模训练集群驱动;第二阶段开始向数据中心电力链条、HBM/DRAM/NAND、先进封装、液冷散热、数据中心CPU、光通信/光互连、高性能以太网网络基础设施/数据中心DCI高速互联，以及PC、可穿戴消费电子、人形机器人、自动驾驶等AI应用终端SpaceX所代表的太空AI算力基础设施等“新AI中心”全面扩散。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街金融巨头高盛近期多次上调韩国KOSPI基准指数目标位，押注今年以来疯涨100%且波动剧烈的韩国股市还能狂飙，<strong>高盛对于韩国KOSPI基准指数的目标点位从8000、9000一路提升至12000点(相比之下，该指数周三开盘交易于7900附近)，其核心逻辑并非宏观刺激或者货币政策因素，而是长期存储景气周期与AI内存/存储芯片需求持续大爆发，而SK海力士、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSD.UK\">三星电子</a>等韩国龙头恰恰是全球AI算力链条最重要的受益者之一。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8644399e41558064729bc8dffe946045\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1231\" tg-height=\"586\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，<strong>在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在华尔街金融巨头美国银行(Bank of America )的分析师团队看来<strong>，AI算力基础设施正在进入更持久、更宽广的资本开支周期。几乎同一时间，另一华尔街金融巨头摩根士丹利发布的研报显示，AI算力军备竞赛进入系统级扩张阶段，AI基础设施需求正在呈现罕见的“无弹性”趋势——即无论成本曲线如何，科技巨头们仍然继续加码建设AI数据中心，而这种“需求无弹性”会持续强化美国经济韧性以及标普500指数整体盈利增速，并且预测到2028年，接近3万亿美元AI相关基础设施投资将流经全球经济，而且超过80%的支出仍在前方。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">台积电掌舵者魏哲家上周在年度股东会上表示，需求将在未来多年超过供给，即使美国新增产能上线，台积电未来数年仍难以完全满足AI驱动需求;具体的AI资本开支展望层面，台积电掌舵者魏哲家在股东大会上表述的“高点在哪里我也不知道”“没有看到任何需求停止指标”可谓是这次台积电股东会最具AI算力产业链看涨层面的产业链巨头表态。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>AI超级牛市进入“SpaceX时刻”！被动资金火箭燃料蓄势点火，AI算力狂潮远未谢幕</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAI超级牛市进入“SpaceX时刻”！被动资金火箭燃料蓄势点火，AI算力狂潮远未谢幕\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-10 12:50 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>近日有不少金融市场专业学者和市场观察人士撰文表示，指数追踪型基金(即指数ETF)即将对SpaceX股票形成数十亿美元的新增需求，这种前景可能会形成一个反馈循环，进一步推高埃隆·马斯克创立的这家聚焦于“太空探索+AI”的美国超级巨头股票价格与整体市值。预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37a92dcaf28f64e8cb7016e217314e1f","relate_stocks":{"SPCX":"SPAC and New Issue ETF","SPCU":"2倍做多SpaceX ETF-Defiance","CHAT":"ROUNDHILL GENERATIVE AI & TECHNOLOGY ETF","DXYZ":"Destiny Tech100 Inc","BK4615":"SpaceX概念","SNK":"2倍做空SpaceX ETF-GraniteShares","ARTY":"ISHARES FUTURE AI & TECH ETF","XOVR":"ERShares Private-Public Crossover ETF","AIPO":"Defiance AI and Power Infrastructure ETF","SPAL":"2倍做多Space X ETF-GraniteShares","AGIX":"通用人工智能 ETF-AGIX","BK4089":"非传统电信运营商","UFO":"Procure Space ETF"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1452324.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2642415418","content_text":"近日有不少金融市场专业学者和市场观察人士撰文表示，指数追踪型基金(即指数ETF)即将对SpaceX股票形成数十亿美元的新增需求，这种前景可能会形成一个反馈循环，进一步推高埃隆·马斯克创立的这家聚焦于“太空探索+AI”的美国超级巨头股票价格与整体市值。预期规模高达3万亿美元的AI算力相关基础设施投资与建设进程可谓如火如荼，再叠加指数跟踪型基金对SpaceX股票的数十亿美元需求前景，因此在一些看涨后市的分析师们看来，对于席卷全球股票市场的“AI超级牛市”而言，围绕AI的全球牛市可能远未完结。也就是说，经过15天的公开市场上市交易之后，SpaceX约30%的自由流通股将由聚焦于指数ETF被动投资者们所持有，这可能会给股价持续带来上行推动力。SpaceX创纪录级别的前所未有IPO规模，已经不只是单个融资事件，更像是一次对全球“AI超级牛市“背景下资金承接能力的极限压力测试，并且在一些分析师看来，SpaceX或成AI超级牛市的强劲放大器，而非泡沫终结者。在美东时间周二，有媒体援引知情人士透露的消息报道称，SpaceX已吸引超过2500亿美元的投资者认购需求，远超该公司计划筹集的750亿美元，有望成为史上最大规模的首次公开募股(即IPO)。如果SpaceX股价因指数资金和稀缺流通盘持续上涨，就可能进一步吸引更多资金追逐，从而进一步强化估值扩张，因此在一些持续看好AI算力狂潮所主导的全球“AI超级牛市”行情大趋势的华尔街分析师们看来，AI超级牛市轨迹远未完结，SpaceX更像是AI超级牛市的受益者和放大器，而非市场所恐慌的“抽水型”终结者。2500亿美元认购规模本身说明，当前全球风险资本对于AI算力基础设施、商业航天和下一代聚焦太空的AI基础设施资产的追逐远未降温。如果市场真的处于流动性枯竭边缘，很难出现近4倍超额认购。相反，这意味着大量长期资金、主权基金、养老金、成长基金和主动型对冲基金资金正在主动寻找能够承载未来十年增长叙事的核心资产。从华尔街最新主流观点来看，尽管近期包括ARM、美光、SK海力士以及三星在内的全球股市AI算力产业链股价大幅回调，但是在华尔街目前并没有出现“AI超级牛市结束”的悲观共识，反而出现了截然相反现象：越来越多大型投资机构是在上调基准股指目标位，而上调理由几乎都与AI资本开支浪潮、AI基础设施建设进程火热以及AI驱动的盈利扩张有关。华尔街商业银行巨头摩根大通发布的最新研究报告则显示，在AI算力交易主题主导的科技股牛市狂欢驱动之下，该机构预测美股基准股指之一的标普500指数可能在未来一年内突破9000点这一看似遥不可及的史诗级关口，意味着2024年以来疯涨超60%的该基准股票指数还能涨超20%。摩根士丹利明确指出AI算力相关基础设施投资正在支撑企业盈利与风险资产表现;同时强调真正风险来自通胀失控和融资成本上升，而非AI相关的需求衰退或者是“AI泡沫破裂”悲观叙事。 花旗更是逆势将标普500指数年底目标点位从7700点上调至8100点，成为华尔街主流机构中目标最高的投行之一。当指数基金遇上SpaceX：被动投资正亲手改写价格发现机制在此前两家大型指数提供商修改规则允许SpaceX被提前纳入基准指数之后，纳斯达克指数公司(Nasdaq Inc.)、富时罗素指数公司(FTSE Russell)以及MSCI全球指数公司(MSCI Inc.)现在都准备将该公司快速纳入各自的基准指数编制体系。根据指数再平衡预测服务商Intropic的统计数据，仅在上市交易15天后，约30%的SpaceX自由流通股就将由被动投资者持有。而作为对比，在这些指数提供商们此前较慢的指数纳入规则下，这一比例大约只有4%。仅仅是对这种机械性需求的强劲预期，就足以对SpaceX股价形成重大上行驱动力，甚至发生在投资基金之间争抢股票之前。再叠加围绕马斯克本人的市场看涨信仰，以及围绕SpaceX与人工智能的市场狂热看涨情绪，风险则在于，指数产品本身可能会推动其最终不得不支付的股票成本价格不断上涨。这也使得这家火箭制造商+人工智能领军者的重磅上市，不仅成为历史上规模最大的首次公开募股(IPO)，同时也成为检验被动投资资金对于市场影响力的一次重要“理性测试”。“每一家指数提供商都试图如此迅速地将SpaceX纳入基准指数，其中一个原因是基准指数之间存在隐性的竞争关系。”长期研究被动投资影响的哈佛商学院助理教授Marco Sammon表示。“这看起来是一个指数编制方法，而非基本面因素，但是可能对价格产生巨大影响的案例。”根据研究机构Bloomberg Intelligence的最新测算数据，目前被动投资工具约占美国股票型基金资产的大约60%，并控制着标普500指数约五分之一的市值。因此，金融市场的专业学者们长期以来可谓一直担忧，指数化投资可能会扭曲交易行为和市场价格形成机制。来自哈佛大学的Sammon此前曾证明，由于对指数纳入事件的广泛预期，指数成分股纳入所带来的价格上行压力实际上得到了抑制。Sammon发布的一份研究报告显示，背后的核心原因在于，对冲基金和做市商中的专业交易员们往往会提前逐步买入股票进行布局。在他与John Shim以及Stefano Pegoraro合作撰写的一篇工作论文中，他们发现这些中介机构会在指数基金真正需要股票之前建立仓位，然后在指数基金买入时卖出持仓。“但是其中的一个重要问题在于，新股被快速纳入指数后，套利者建立库存仓位的时间将大幅缩短。”Sammon表示。在另一项研究中，他与哈佛大学同事Chris Murray研究了CRSP——一家拥有部分IPO快速纳入机制的指数提供商。他们发现，被提前纳入指数的公司，在指数纳入日前平均跑赢市场5个百分点，而这一效应会在三周内显著回吐。他们还发现，被快速纳入指数的公司能够在股票市场IPO中募集更多资金——这表明刚性的被动投资需求确实会产生真实的经济扩张后果。这实际上相当于对被动投资者征收了一种“影子税(shadow tax)”：他们不得不在高位选择机械买入;与此同时，公司本身却无法直接将股票资产出售给指数追踪基金。“当纳入窗口被压缩时，同样规模的机械性需求更有可能带来更大的短期价格冲击，并随后出现反转。”Sammon表示，“而这种情况又会因IPO后市场本身波动大、流动性相当较差而被进一步放大。在这种环境下，指数型基金的投资者们所承担的成本将更高。”对于指数提供商而言，是否快速纳入一家公司，本质上是在两种风险之间做选择：一种是仓促纳入一个被过度炒作的新股标的;另一种则是错过一家行业巨头的上市时刻带来的巨大资金流入。除了SpaceX之外，全球两大AI应用领军者——OpenAI和Anthropic预计也将在不久之后进行大型IPO。标普道琼斯指数公司(S&P Dow Jones Indices)已经拒绝了可能让这三家公司提前且快速进入美国基准指数的提议，其他指数编制公司则普遍松绑指数纳入规则以更早纳入这些巨额IPO科技公司。“企业如今是在更加成熟的发展阶段才选择上市，而快速纳入IPO有助于指数更好地代表那些真正对经济增长前景重要的上市公司。”来自纳斯达克公司的经济学家Phil Mackintosh和Nicole Torskiy上周在公司博客中写道。根据他们基于2010年至2025年数据的研究，率先进入罗素1000指数(Russell 1000)的股票，往往能够跑赢标普1500指数(S&P 1500)。即便如此，Intropic表示，对SpaceX股票的被动需求仍可能形成一个“反身性循环(reflexive loop)”。该机构在周一发布的博客文章中指出，各指数所产生的资金流入规模，将取决于公司在各指数排名日(rank date)的市值。而这一市值本身，可能因为套利者提前建仓、准备迎接机械性买盘而被暂时推高。如果参与IPO的投资者们本身也是出于对未来被动资金需求的预期而认购股票，那么这种循环甚至可能进一步延伸至IPO定价阶段，Intropic表示。“被动资金流所带来的价格冲击通常是短暂的，但它可能会在一家企业股票市场旅程中最重要的时刻，扰乱价格发现机制。”这家总部位于伦敦的金融机构写道。SpaceX不是终结者，而是AI算力狂潮的放大器! AI超级牛市或刚进入下半场一些投资者所担忧的“巨额IPO抽水效应”确实存在，但其影响更偏向短期市场结构，而非长期牛市逻辑。高盛的最新研究报告显示，2026年美国总股权发行规模即便达到约6000亿美元，也不到美国股市总市值的1%，理论上市场可以吸收，只是会阶段性挤压小型IPO和部分高拥挤持仓。高盛表示，即便把2026年IPO融资预测上调至2250亿美元，并将增发、可转债、SPAC等纳入后形成更大的股权供给，按美国股市总市值比例以及历史百分位来看仍未突破历史常态;更关键的是，美国企业回购仍是市场最强需求端，并且高盛预计标普500指数仍有盈利增长支撑。SpaceX正在从“商业航天与太空探索公司”加速向“全球AI算力基础设施运营商+AI应用巨无霸”转型，2500亿美元认购规模远超预期足以说明市场接受这一增长叙事，此后也将不断强化“SpaceX创纪录IPO实际上是在扩展AI超级牛市的边界，而不是消耗AI牛市的流动性”的趋势与轨迹。ARM、美光、SK海力士、三星电子以及AMD、台积电等AI算力产业链领军者们股价近期大幅调整，更多体现的是预期重定价而非产业逻辑逆转。过去一年AI产业链部分环节涨幅过快，市场开始从“无限乐观预期”回归到“实际订单兑现节奏”。历史上无论是云计算超级周期、智能手机周期还是IT互联网周期，龙头产业趋势往往伴随着20%-40%的阶段性调整。只要全球AI数据中心建设进程如火如荼带动AI GPU/AI ASIC、数据中心高性能CPU、DRAM/NAND/HBM存储、高性能网络基础设施、AI PCB、液冷系统、数据中心光互连系统、ABF载板/玻璃基板与广泛晶圆代工等全栈AI算力基础设施层继续大规模扩张与增长，这类调整更接近AI牛市中的换手与估值消化，而非熊市起点。在一些分析师看来，真正导致“AI泡沫”彻底破裂乃至全球股市陷入熊市的前置条件，不是SpaceX史无前例IPO上市本身，而是SpaceX极高估值IPO叠加10年及以上长期限美债收益率创纪录式上行、企业盈利大幅放缓、AI资本开支放缓、AI创收回报遭遇投资者们一致质疑、被动资金机械调仓和主动基金赎回压力同时出现。从全球资本流向观察，目前更像是AI超级牛市进入第二阶段。第一阶段由AI 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