gugu
08-15
这么快就到目标区间
该不该做个有格局的人？
[捂脸]
@gugu：
紫金矿业，总想赌把大的
晒晒更赚钱
晒晒你的盈亏单，秀秀虎友们的实力！
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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Leader
08-15
Leader
黄金挺高了，我基本都清了
gugu
:
上半年国内黄金消费下降3.5%，金条金币需求增长快23.7%，首饰消费下滑26%。全球黄金2季度增长3%。
菜百的财报一直很好，都是直营店，没有关店潮压力。另外也和区域人群有关，北京大城市买金条多。而加盟商巨多，下沉做的好的老凤祥很惨。
Leader
回复
gugu
:
不一定，金价高位需求也会下降，像国内的首饰店，销量反而低迷，供需平衡
gugu
:
那etf期权就要做短线，对于贵金属挖掘企业无所谓，金价高位对于企业都是好的。
Leader
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gugu
:
我判断金价不会大幅上涨了，震荡概率大，时间收益性价比不高
gugu
:
你判断金价不涨了？
厚积薄发886
08-15
厚积薄发886
我觉得大盘的趋势还在，我前面的中煤中铝都卖飞了，再拿拿吧，车上呆呆的好，你说呢？
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ddac668b6f14a7ad29a1ddb41e82ef7\" tg-width=\"1500\" tg-height=\"914\"></p>\n<p>45%毛利来自铜，年复合增长24%，未来3年10%。中国第1，全球第4。</p>\n<p>30%毛利来自金，年复合增长12%，未来三年7.5%；中国第1，全球第6，产量是中国整体的24%。</p>\n<p>白银、铁、钼、钨、钴等，毛利占比20%。紫金是中国最大的矿产银生产商。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><strong>公司就是个吞金兽，不断融资，不断并购，分红越来越少。</strong></p>\n<p>2013-2016年，分红率70-80%</p>\n<p>2017-2020年，分红率50%左右</p>\n<p>2021年-2024年，分红率30%</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><strong>历年资金募集（数据不全）</strong></p>\n<p>2003年，港股上市募集12.05亿</p>\n<p>2008年，A股上市募集98亿</p>\n<p>2017年，A股非公开增发46.35亿元*发行价3.11元/股=144亿</p>\n<p>2019年，A股增发募集80亿，增发23.46亿股</p>\n<p>2020-2024年，公司债、短期融资券、中期票据，52笔，募资502.5亿</p>\n<p>2020年，可转债60亿</p>\n<p>2024年，H股上市募资25亿美元，20亿美元可转债，5亿股票募资</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><strong>历年收购（数据不全）</strong></p>\n<p>2020年，3.23亿加元，收购了圭亚那金田100%股权</p>\n<p>2020年，39亿元收购巨龙铜业50.1%的股权</p>\n<p>2021年，9.6亿加元的对价收购了加拿大新锂公司，进而拥有了位于阿根廷的3Q盐湖项目。</p>\n<p>2022年，77亿元盾安集团旗下四项资产包，取得了西藏拉果错盐湖锂矿70%权益</p>\n<p>2022年，40亿元收购瑞银矿业30%股权</p>\n<p>2022年，41亿元入股招金矿业，第二大股东。</p>\n<p>2024年10月，10亿美元收购加纳Akyem金矿，该金矿是加纳最大的金矿之一，储量及资源量分别为34.6吨、54.4吨。</p>\n<p>2025年1月，35元/股的对价收购藏格矿业24.82%股权，137.29亿。</p>\n<p></p>\n<p><strong>目前来看金属矿完全跟随商品周期，紫金24年市值排名世界No.4，市场给的估值不低。</strong></p>\n<p>目前处于行业周期的上升期，19年1月至今金价涨了164%，16年至今铜价在5500美元/吨-9000美元/吨区间波动。股价和黄金走势图比较吻合，我是看好金价才买入紫金矿业。目前3.6倍pb，价格比较贵。</p>\n<p>公司目前想要分拆黄金业务港股上市，如果黄金业务给22倍pe的话，其他业务14倍pe，整体市值可上浮10-15%。</p>\n<p>公司铜储量47%，黄金储量50%，锌储量86%是自主勘查，剩余靠收购。<strong>大规模收购的逻辑要想成立，必须是是紫金的矿山管理/挖掘技术/冶炼技术，能让成本更低。这是我最大担忧。保持目前的仓位，暂时不买入。</strong></p></body></html>","text":"45%毛利来自铜，年复合增长24%，未来3年10%。中国第1，全球第4。 30%毛利来自金，年复合增长12%，未来三年7.5%；中国第1，全球第6，产量是中国整体的24%。 白银、铁、钼、钨、钴等，毛利占比20%。紫金是中国最大的矿产银生产商。 公司就是个吞金兽，不断融资，不断并购，分红越来越少。 2013-2016年，分红率70-80% 2017-2020年，分红率50%左右 2021年-2024年，分红率30% 历年资金募集（数据不全） 2003年，港股上市募集12.05亿 2008年，A股上市募集98亿 2017年，A股非公开增发46.35亿元*发行价3.11元/股=144亿 2019年，A股增发募集80亿，增发23.46亿股 2020-2024年，公司债、短期融资券、中期票据，52笔，募资502.5亿 2020年，可转债60亿 2024年，H股上市募资25亿美元，20亿美元可转债，5亿股票募资 历年收购（数据不全） 2020年，3.23亿加元，收购了圭亚那金田100%股权 2020年，39亿元收购巨龙铜业50.1%的股权 2021年，9.6亿加元的对价收购了加拿大新锂公司，进而拥有了位于阿根廷的3Q盐湖项目。 2022年，77亿元盾安集团旗下四项资产包，取得了西藏拉果错盐湖锂矿70%权益 2022年，40亿元收购瑞银矿业30%股权 2022年，41亿元入股招金矿业，第二大股东。 2024年10月，10亿美元收购加纳Akyem金矿，该金矿是加纳最大的金矿之一，储量及资源量分别为34.6吨、54.4吨。 2025年1月，35元/股的对价收购藏格矿业24.82%股权，137.29亿。 目前来看金属矿完全跟随商品周期，紫金24年市值排名世界No.4，市场给的估值不低。 目前处于行业周期的上升期，19年1月至今金价涨了164%，16年至今铜价在5500美元/吨-9000美元/吨区间波动。股价和黄金走势图比较吻合，我是看好金价才买入紫金矿业。目前3.6倍pb，价格比较贵。 公司目前想要分拆黄金业务港股上市，如果黄金业务给22倍pe的话，其他业务14倍pe，整体市值可上浮10-15%。 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