effortless
10-16
这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看
@期权小班长：
6000万美元看跌大单做空微软，暴雨将至？
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true}","description":"你想知道的期权知识都在这里，咨询期权问题@期权小助手","image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/672d6bc9cf055ebef009d5ee69bfef82"}],"images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8709d586928e677fde12d2e55f2bcfda","width":"2478","height":"428"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7137ce5e1df3deac9b82e6cb9ce12bd7","width":"2484","height":"250"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee0f3c9507213ecc774a6224346719b","width":"1040","height":"1028"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bae2456154be81ac8da8f5529e80199","width":"1038","height":"870"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3942578da61ba5946ca43679ea554b7","width":"1038","height":"1058"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538a1cdedde11eda7e0fe8b9f9abc4ba","width":"1038","height":"606"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f96d73572827676b06951bb0415166","width":"1038","height":"738"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a401c67bd6472b188fff96fa9b66e8","width":"1038","height":"1056"}],"coverImages":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8709d586928e677fde12d2e55f2bcfda","width":"2478","height":"428"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7137ce5e1df3deac9b82e6cb9ce12bd7","width":"2484","height":"250"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee0f3c9507213ecc774a6224346719b","width":"1040","height":"1028"}],"title":"6000万美元看跌大单做空微软，暴雨将至？","html":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"MSFT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微软\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> </p><p>在看涨的日子里谈这个不讨喜，但这组大单实在是太离谱了。</p><p>前几日有人买了总额近6000万美元的看跌期权，都是11月14日到期，行权价分别是515<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20515.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT$</a> ，520<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20520.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT$</a> 和525。</p><p>其中525<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20525.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT$</a> 是在10月7日下单成交量1万手，520是在10月9日下单成交量1.27万手，515大单10月13日下单成交量1.7万手，总成交额约6000多万美元。</p><p>离谱的地方在于数量很大，到期日很近，以及持续买入。要知道6000万可不是小数目，在大单里也很罕见了，这周跟下周msft不跌的话6000万就要打水漂了。</p><p>建议还是跟之前一样，降低杠杆，留出现金，给正股上领口保护，以及适当做空。</p><p>可以继续观察一下今天开盘有没有新增看跌开仓。总之目前情况还是明晰。</p><p>另外10月6日高点有sell call大单 <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251107 550.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251107%20550.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20251107 550.0 CALL$</a> ，这张大单现在也可以参考。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8709d586928e677fde12d2e55f2bcfda\" tg-width=\"2478\" tg-height=\"428\"></p><p>还有一个动向，long call roll仓，从11月585call <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251121%20585.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月600call <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20260116 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020260116%20600.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20260116 600.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>也能说明一些问题，就是多头认为财报季很难给出15%以上的涨幅，所以延期到1月，行权价提高说明多头认为谈判过后微软股价弹性恢复的很好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7137ce5e1df3deac9b82e6cb9ce12bd7\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"250\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>预计到11月7日前股价很难突破190，机构价差策略是sell190 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251107 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251107%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251107 190.0 CALL$</a> buy200 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251107 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251107%20200.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251107 200.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>本周看跌价差是sell170 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20170.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT$</a> buy167.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 167.5 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20167.5%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 167.5 PUT$</a> 。总之看起来本周还会继续回调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee0f3c9507213ecc774a6224346719b\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>空头开仓不是很积极，从开仓看震荡区间还是400～450，有点佛系的不可思议了。可能空头都去搞芯片股了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bae2456154be81ac8da8f5529e80199\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"870\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>前排看跌开仓： <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251020 622.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251020%20622.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251020 622.0 PUT$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251031 660.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251031 660.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>如果要发生黑天鹅，时间点也就最近这两周。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3942578da61ba5946ca43679ea554b7\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MP\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP Materials Corp.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a> </p><p>mp本周大概率止步100，机构开仓看涨和看跌行权价是100call和95put <a data-mention-id=\"MP 20251017 95.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MP%2020251017%2095.0%20PUT\">$MP 20251017 95.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"MP 20251017 100.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MP%2020251017%20100.0%20CALL\">$MP 20251017 100.0 CALL$</a> ，使用方法参考之前聊过的CRWV，股价触及put行权价可以考虑sell put，触及call则需要看情况，不建议sell call除非有正股。</p><p>另外需要注意的是昨日机构被逼空进行了roll 仓，roll仓前的策略是80put和86call。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538a1cdedde11eda7e0fe8b9f9abc4ba\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"606\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>可能因为这次财报涨跌很难猜所以开仓数据不多，但总的看来偏向低于325 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251031 325.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251031%20325.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251031 325.0 CALL$</a> ，如果想做空波动率建议加一条buy call的腿保护。</p><p>看跌预期是高于270 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260618%20270.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT$</a> ，不过2026年6月股价肯定高于270。</p><p>另外黑天鹅开仓是180put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT\">$TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT$ </a> ，之前10月6日成交量达到9555手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f96d73572827676b06951bb0415166\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"738\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>看跌开仓大多围绕150进行布局比如 <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20251017 155.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020251017%20155.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20251017 155.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260618%20150.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT$</a> ，说明市场很看好阿里。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a401c67bd6472b188fff96fa9b66e8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p></p></body></html>","htmlText":"<html><head></head><body><p><a data-mention-id=\"MSFT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"微软\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">$微软(MSFT)$</a> </p><p>在看涨的日子里谈这个不讨喜，但这组大单实在是太离谱了。</p><p>前几日有人买了总额近6000万美元的看跌期权，都是11月14日到期，行权价分别是515<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20515.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT$</a> ，520<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20520.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT$</a> 和525。</p><p>其中525<a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251114%20525.0%20PUT\">$MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT$</a> 是在10月7日下单成交量1万手，520是在10月9日下单成交量1.27万手，515大单10月13日下单成交量1.7万手，总成交额约6000多万美元。</p><p>离谱的地方在于数量很大，到期日很近，以及持续买入。要知道6000万可不是小数目，在大单里也很罕见了，这周跟下周msft不跌的话6000万就要打水漂了。</p><p>建议还是跟之前一样，降低杠杆，留出现金，给正股上领口保护，以及适当做空。</p><p>可以继续观察一下今天开盘有没有新增看跌开仓。总之目前情况还是明晰。</p><p>另外10月6日高点有sell call大单 <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251107 550.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251107%20550.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20251107 550.0 CALL$</a> ，这张大单现在也可以参考。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8709d586928e677fde12d2e55f2bcfda\" tg-width=\"2478\" tg-height=\"428\"></p><p>还有一个动向，long call roll仓，从11月585call <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020251121%20585.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL$</a> roll到明年1月600call <a data-mention-id=\"MSFT 20260116 600.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MSFT\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MSFT%2020260116%20600.0%20CALL\">$MSFT 20260116 600.0 CALL$</a> 。</p><p>也能说明一些问题，就是多头认为财报季很难给出15%以上的涨幅，所以延期到1月，行权价提高说明多头认为谈判过后微软股价弹性恢复的很好。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7137ce5e1df3deac9b82e6cb9ce12bd7\" tg-width=\"2484\" tg-height=\"250\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"英伟达\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a> </p><p>预计到11月7日前股价很难突破190，机构价差策略是sell190 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251107 190.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251107%20190.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251107 190.0 CALL$</a> buy200 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251107 200.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251107%20200.0%20CALL\">$NVDA 20251107 200.0 CALL$</a> </p><p>本周看跌价差是sell170 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20170.0%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT$</a> buy167.5 <a data-mention-id=\"NVDA 20251017 167.5 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NVDA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NVDA%2020251017%20167.5%20PUT\">$NVDA 20251017 167.5 PUT$</a> 。总之看起来本周还会继续回调。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5ee0f3c9507213ecc774a6224346719b\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSLA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"特斯拉\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a> </p><p>空头开仓不是很积极，从开仓看震荡区间还是400～450，有点佛系的不可思议了。可能空头都去搞芯片股了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bae2456154be81ac8da8f5529e80199\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"870\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a> </p><p>前排看跌开仓： <a data-mention-id=\"SPY 20251020 622.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"SPY\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY%2020251020%20622.0%20PUT\">$SPY 20251020 622.0 PUT$</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/SPY 20251031 660.0 PUT\">$SPY 20251031 660.0 PUT$ </a> </p><p>如果要发生黑天鹅，时间点也就最近这两周。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3942578da61ba5946ca43679ea554b7\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"MP\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP Materials Corp.\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MP\">$MP Materials Corp.(MP)$</a> </p><p>mp本周大概率止步100，机构开仓看涨和看跌行权价是100call和95put <a data-mention-id=\"MP 20251017 95.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MP%2020251017%2095.0%20PUT\">$MP 20251017 95.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"MP 20251017 100.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"MP\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MP%2020251017%20100.0%20CALL\">$MP 20251017 100.0 CALL$</a> ，使用方法参考之前聊过的CRWV，股价触及put行权价可以考虑sell put，触及call则需要看情况，不建议sell call除非有正股。</p><p>另外需要注意的是昨日机构被逼空进行了roll 仓，roll仓前的策略是80put和86call。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/538a1cdedde11eda7e0fe8b9f9abc4ba\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"606\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"TSM\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"台积电\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">$台积电(TSM)$</a> </p><p>可能因为这次财报涨跌很难猜所以开仓数据不多，但总的看来偏向低于325 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20251031 325.0 CALL\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020251031%20325.0%20CALL\">$TSM 20251031 325.0 CALL$</a> ，如果想做空波动率建议加一条buy call的腿保护。</p><p>看跌预期是高于270 <a data-mention-id=\"TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"TSM\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM%2020260618%20270.0%20PUT\">$TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT$</a> ，不过2026年6月股价肯定高于270。</p><p>另外黑天鹅开仓是180put <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT\">$TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT$ </a> ，之前10月6日成交量达到9555手</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/98f96d73572827676b06951bb0415166\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"738\"></p><p> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"阿里巴巴\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$</a> </p><p>看跌开仓大多围绕150进行布局比如 <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20251017 155.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020251017%20155.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20251017 155.0 PUT$</a> <a data-mention-id=\"BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"BABA\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/BABA%2020260618%20150.0%20PUT\">$BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT$</a> ，说明市场很看好阿里。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a401c67bd6472b188fff96fa9b66e8\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p></p></body></html>","text":"$微软(MSFT)$ 在看涨的日子里谈这个不讨喜，但这组大单实在是太离谱了。 前几日有人买了总额近6000万美元的看跌期权，都是11月14日到期，行权价分别是515$MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT$ ，520$MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT$ 和525。 其中525$MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT$ 是在10月7日下单成交量1万手，520是在10月9日下单成交量1.27万手，515大单10月13日下单成交量1.7万手，总成交额约6000多万美元。 离谱的地方在于数量很大，到期日很近，以及持续买入。要知道6000万可不是小数目，在大单里也很罕见了，这周跟下周msft不跌的话6000万就要打水漂了。 建议还是跟之前一样，降低杠杆，留出现金，给正股上领口保护，以及适当做空。 可以继续观察一下今天开盘有没有新增看跌开仓。总之目前情况还是明晰。 另外10月6日高点有sell call大单 $MSFT 20251107 550.0 CALL$ ，这张大单现在也可以参考。 还有一个动向，long call roll仓，从11月585call $MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL$ roll到明年1月600call $MSFT 20260116 600.0 CALL$ 。 也能说明一些问题，就是多头认为财报季很难给出15%以上的涨幅，所以延期到1月，行权价提高说明多头认为谈判过后微软股价弹性恢复的很好。 $英伟达(NVDA)$ 预计到11月7日前股价很难突破190，机构价差策略是sell190 $NVDA 20251107 190.0 CALL$ buy200 $NVDA 20251107 200.0 CALL$ 本周看跌价差是sell170 $NVDA 20251017 170.0 PUT$ buy167.5 $NVDA 20251017 167.5 PUT$ 。总之看起来本周还会继续回调。 $特斯拉(TSLA)$ 空头开仓不是很积极，从开仓看震荡区间还是400～450，有点佛系的不可思议了。可能空头都去搞芯片股了。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 前排看跌开仓： $SPY 20251020 622.0 PUT$ $SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT$ $SPY 20251031 660.0 PUT$ 如果要发生黑天鹅，时间点也就最近这两周。 $MP Materials Corp.(MP)$ mp本周大概率止步100，机构开仓看涨和看跌行权价是100call和95put $MP 20251017 95.0 PUT$ $MP 20251017 100.0 CALL$ ，使用方法参考之前聊过的CRWV，股价触及put行权价可以考虑sell put，触及call则需要看情况，不建议sell call除非有正股。 另外需要注意的是昨日机构被逼空进行了roll 仓，roll仓前的策略是80put和86call。 $台积电(TSM)$ 可能因为这次财报涨跌很难猜所以开仓数据不多，但总的看来偏向低于325 $TSM 20251031 325.0 CALL$ ，如果想做空波动率建议加一条buy call的腿保护。 看跌预期是高于270 $TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT$ ，不过2026年6月股价肯定高于270。 另外黑天鹅开仓是180put $TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT$ ，之前10月6日成交量达到9555手 $阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 看跌开仓大多围绕150进行布局比如 $BABA 20251017 155.0 PUT$ $BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT$ ，说明市场很看好阿里。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/489593958764936","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","MP","BABA","TSM","TSLA","MSFT","SPY","MSFT 20251114 520.0 PUT","MSFT 20251114 525.0 PUT","TSM 20260116 180.0 PUT","MSFT 20251114 515.0 PUT","MSFT 20251121 585.0 CALL","SPY 20251121 625.0 PUT","BABA 20260618 150.0 PUT","TSM 20260618 270.0 PUT","MSFT 20260116 600.0 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