人生舵手__小琳
12-09
太厉害了👍 跟紧班长
@期权小班长：
H200喜获解禁，英伟达趋势要走强吗？
免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。
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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a09dcf02adb115f8702a5400faa2253c\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NFLX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"奈飞\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a></p><p>奈飞近期受收购案影响股价暴跌，很多人关心能不能抄底。看跌期权开仓来看目前价位很有吸引力，看跌期权行权价开仓集中在90～95，月线ma20有比较强的支撑。不过也有空头继续看空到日线ma120位置价格80 <a data-mention-id=\"NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NFLX\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX%2020260821%2080.0%20PUT\">$NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3000手，成交额约150万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae5aad281317a096b6ca5fea52b3882\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p>值得注意的是，收购案的另一方华纳兄弟 <a data-mention-id=\"WBD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">$WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC(WBD)$</a> 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$</a></p><p>标题答案是，下限极大改善了，上限稍微上挪187.5。</p><p>12月和1月因为堆积了大量未平仓期权，所以这两个月主要以区间震荡为主，除非爆出重大利好，比如新出了一个现象级的AI应用，那么所有的AI板块会一起飞。</p><p>如果没有现象级产品拉动，预期12月～1月16号就是在160～200区间震荡。1月16日到期200call未平仓数据有15.9万手，19号到期200call有10.6万手，这种情况下股价不会高于200。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4378c17e513485fb2569f99e4594bb0e\" tg-width=\"1040\" tg-height=\"1028\"></p><p>但是利好消息大大提升了看跌期权开仓的行权价，极端对冲减少，支撑位变高，我觉得总体震荡区间可以谨慎提升至170～200。</p><p>理论上H200解禁应该是重大利好消息，不过额外增加25%的税收抵消部分利好，预计贡献每股收益大约只有20～50美分。但我觉得这个消息重要点在于打开了中国市场的想象空间，为以后的财报预测铺路了。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1e12fcbb874df197b66f27e4cd0be40\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1024\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"SPY\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"标普500ETF\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPY\">$标普500ETF(SPY)$</a></p><p>做极端对冲的大大减少，闪崩概率降低，维持周一观点，大盘处于正常高位回调状态，在680～685之间震荡。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a09dcf02adb115f8702a5400faa2253c\" tg-width=\"1036\" tg-height=\"1056\"></p><p><a data-mention-id=\"NFLX\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"奈飞\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NFLX\">$奈飞(NFLX)$</a></p><p>奈飞近期受收购案影响股价暴跌，很多人关心能不能抄底。看跌期权开仓来看目前价位很有吸引力，看跌期权行权价开仓集中在90～95，月线ma20有比较强的支撑。不过也有空头继续看空到日线ma120位置价格80 <a data-mention-id=\"NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"NFLX\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/NFLX%2020260821%2080.0%20PUT\">$NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT$</a> ，开仓3000手，成交额约150万美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ae5aad281317a096b6ca5fea52b3882\" tg-width=\"1038\" tg-height=\"1058\"></p><p>值得注意的是，收购案的另一方华纳兄弟 <a data-mention-id=\"WBD\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBD\">$WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC(WBD)$</a> 有套利机会，奈飞收购价折合约27.75美元。派拉蒙中途进行狙击，提出收购价是现金每股30美元。</p><p>目前来看两方都有决心完成收购，当下情况很适合做sell put <a data-mention-id=\"WBD 20251219 27.0 PUT\" class=\"teditor-mention\" data-mention-name=\"WBD\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/WBD%2020251219%2027.0%20PUT\">$WBD 20251219 27.0 PUT$</a> ，年化收益率29%，也不怕有股价波动接盘套牢问题，反正后面都要被收购。</p><p>小说明：</p><p>近期发现评论区有些新来的朋友可能看不太懂，然后觉得文章没有意义。</p><p>这个问题吧，主要碍于篇幅和时间来不及掰开揉碎给策略解释一遍。另外写这个东西有没有效果文字很难说清楚，那就放一下收益率吧。</p><p>对于今年的市场行情这个收益属于比较正常的范围，不算高，但也能对得起每天码字的辛苦。</p><p>与天天跟着一起辛苦复盘的诸位共勉。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a602484c581075a65cce4a3bc1859007\" tg-width=\"1206\" tg-height=\"519\"></p></body></html>","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 标题答案是，下限极大改善了，上限稍微上挪187.5。 12月和1月因为堆积了大量未平仓期权，所以这两个月主要以区间震荡为主，除非爆出重大利好，比如新出了一个现象级的AI应用，那么所有的AI板块会一起飞。 如果没有现象级产品拉动，预期12月～1月16号就是在160～200区间震荡。1月16日到期200call未平仓数据有15.9万手，19号到期200call有10.6万手，这种情况下股价不会高于200。 但是利好消息大大提升了看跌期权开仓的行权价，极端对冲减少，支撑位变高，我觉得总体震荡区间可以谨慎提升至170～200。 理论上H200解禁应该是重大利好消息，不过额外增加25%的税收抵消部分利好，预计贡献每股收益大约只有20～50美分。但我觉得这个消息重要点在于打开了中国市场的想象空间，为以后的财报预测铺路了。 $标普500ETF(SPY)$ 做极端对冲的大大减少，闪崩概率降低，维持周一观点，大盘处于正常高位回调状态，在680～685之间震荡。 $奈飞(NFLX)$ 奈飞近期受收购案影响股价暴跌，很多人关心能不能抄底。看跌期权开仓来看目前价位很有吸引力，看跌期权行权价开仓集中在90～95，月线ma20有比较强的支撑。不过也有空头继续看空到日线ma120位置价格80 $NFLX 20260821 80.0 PUT$ ，开仓3000手，成交额约150万美元。 值得注意的是，收购案的另一方华纳兄弟 $WARNER BROS DISCOVERY INC(WBD)$ 有套利机会，奈飞收购价折合约27.75美元。派拉蒙中途进行狙击，提出收购价是现金每股30美元。 目前来看两方都有决心完成收购，当下情况很适合做sell put $WBD 20251219 27.0 PUT$ ，年化收益率29%，也不怕有股价波动接盘套牢问题，反正后面都要被收购。 小说明： 近期发现评论区有些新来的朋友可能看不太懂，然后觉得文章没有意义。 这个问题吧，主要碍于篇幅和时间来不及掰开揉碎给策略解释一遍。另外写这个东西有没有效果文字很难说清楚，那就放一下收益率吧。 对于今年的市场行情这个收益属于比较正常的范围，不算高，但也能对得起每天码字的辛苦。 与天天跟着一起辛苦复盘的诸位共勉。","highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/508966750871680","repostId":0,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"commentLimit":10,"symbols":["NVDA","WBD","SPY","NFLX","NFLX 20260821 80.0 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