$中国海洋石油(00_老虎社区_美港股上老虎

$中国海洋石油(00883)$海峡每多封一天，油的缺口就会非线性地扩大，不以谁的意志为转移，中海油的估值将由短期博弈转为较长期化的利润增厚方向继续演进

地缘风险持续升温。周末美军完成对伊朗连续第八晚打击，目标包括沿岸监视与防空设施，伊朗则继续向约旦、科威特、巴林等地还击，地区临时停火进一步破裂。霍尔木兹海峡通航风险陡增，近期单日仅录得3艘船舶穿越，沙特已将逾七成原油出口改道红海。原油（CLmain）跳涨2.23%，油价上行将直接推升通胀担忧、强化美联储维持高利率甚至再度加息的压力，高估值科技股或首当其冲；黄金虽有避险买盘支撑，也将受到利率预期上行的牵制。当周一美股要同时消化"油价+通胀+地缘"三重风险，你更看好原油、黄金，还是逢低布局美股？

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