美伊缓和后，资产怎么看？

SG Visual Research 图解研报

$比特币ETF-iShares(IBIT)$

$黄金ETF-SPDR(GLD)$

美伊谈判出现进展后，市场进入 risk-on relief：

油价回落，股指期货上涨，通胀担忧缓和，避险需求降温。

核心传导链是：

地缘风险下降

→ 油价下跌

→ 通胀压力缓和

→ 美债压力下降

→ 风险偏好改善

但资产关系不是固定答案。

如果谈判反复，油价和黄金可能重新走强，股市和 BTC 也可能承压。

同一个事件，不同主导变量，资产反应可能完全不同。

免责声明

本文仅用于信息交流、研究及教育用途，不构成任何投资建议、买卖建议或证券推荐。

美伊战火连升八晚、油价跳涨2.2%，美股扛得住"三重风险"吗？

地缘风险持续升温。周末美军完成对伊朗连续第八晚打击，目标包括沿岸监视与防空设施，伊朗则继续向约旦、科威特、巴林等地还击，地区临时停火进一步破裂。霍尔木兹海峡通航风险陡增，近期单日仅录得3艘船舶穿越，沙特已将逾七成原油出口改道红海。原油（CLmain）跳涨2.23%，油价上行将直接推升通胀担忧、强化美联储维持高利率甚至再度加息的压力，高估值科技股或首当其冲；黄金虽有避险买盘支撑，也将受到利率预期上行的牵制。当周一美股要同时消化"油价+通胀+地缘"三重风险，你更看好原油、黄金，还是逢低布局美股？

免责声明：上述内容仅代表发帖人个人观点，不构成本平台的任何投资建议。

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