SG Visual Research 图解研报
SG Visual Research 图解研报
来自新加坡的华文创作号,用中文整理与解读英文研报和企业信息。
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NIO 3Q25: Beat or Beware?

$蔚来(NIO)$   $蔚来-SW(09866)$   $蔚来(NIO.SI)$   NIO’s 3Q25 results came in stronger on margins, but the bigger picture remains challenging. Gross margin beat expectations, yet net loss was still RMB 3.66bn. Management also cut 4Q guidance and is less confident about breakeven this year. Competition in China’s EV SUV market is intensifying, and NIO may need price cuts when its new L-series arrives. Key question now: Can NIO protect margins and recover volume in early 2026?
NIO 3Q25: Beat or Beware?

名创优品海外直营收入大增70%,市场还在用“十元店”逻辑给它定价吗?

$名创优品(MNSO)$  $名创优品(09896)$  2025Q3,名创优品海外直营门店收入同比激增 70%,国内同店销售重回 高个位数增长。 这已不是靠开店数量驱动的增长,而是 大店模型升级、自有IP变现、海外直营盈利模型跑通 的综合结果。 更关键的是,经调整营业利润率环比改善,利润下滑趋势明显收窄。 当一家公司在国内优化效率、在欧美打造品牌直营店、还手握TOPTOY这样的第二曲线,我们是否还该用“低价杂货铺”的旧框架去估值? (一图读懂详见下图👇)
名创优品海外直营收入大增70%,市场还在用“十元店”逻辑给它定价吗?

Adobe 的 AI 故事正在从“功能演示”转向“真金白银”。

$Adobe(ADBE)$   最新财报显示,AI 相关新增 ARR 已占整体超三分之一,生成式积分消耗量单季激增约 3 倍——用户不是在试用,而是在高频使用。 但与此同时,公司首次将 FY26 运营利润率指引下调至 45%,为多年新低。一边是创纪录的 26 亿美元净新增 ARR 指引,一边是利润承压,这究竟是“战略性投入”,还是增长质量在悄悄变化? 值得思考的是:当一家软件公司把超过 1/3 的新收入归因于 AI,我们该如何判断这是可持续变现,还是短期叙事包装? (一图读懂详见正文)
Adobe 的 AI 故事正在从“功能演示”转向“真金白银”。

Mixue Group (2097.HK): Cost Leadership and Global Expansion Set the Stage for Multi-Year Growth

$蜜雪集团(02097)$  Mixue Group’s latest coverage highlights a business model that is scaling more rapidly — and more efficiently — than most beverage peers. The company now operates 53,000+ stores worldwide, including nearly 4,800 overseas, making it the world’s largest freshly-made beverage chain. Its core advantage comes from an integrated cost structure: End-to-end supply chain with self-produced ingredients Highly standardized operations A widely recognized brand IP (“Snow King”) Extremely low marketing spending relative to industry norms Deferred demand in lower-tier Chinese cities and accelerating growth in Southeast Asia provide meaningful visibility for store expansion. Mixue already holds 19.5% market share in Southeast Asia and is extendi
Mixue Group (2097.HK): Cost Leadership and Global Expansion Set the Stage for Multi-Year Growth

Horizon Robotics-W: High Compute + HSD Architecture Are Entering a Multi-Year Ramp-Up

$地平线机器人-W(09660)$  Horizon Robotics is moving into a decisive scale-up phase, and this update highlights why the market should not ignore it. The key catalyst is computing power + full-stack architecture advancing simultaneously. The Journey series has now shipped over 10 million SoCs, covering more than 40 OEMs and 400 models, making Horizon one of the most widely deployed intelligent-driving chip suppliers in China. The newly mass-produced Journey 6 platform spans 10–560 TOPS, positioning it as the only domestic solution capable of supporting L2 to full-scenario urban assisted driving on a single architecture. At the same time, the company’s HSD software-hardware integrated ADAS stack is entering a rapid commercialization cycle. It has alread
Horizon Robotics-W: High Compute + HSD Architecture Are Entering a Multi-Year Ramp-Up

NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

$网易(NTES)$   $网易-S(09999)$   NetEase’s 3Q25 looked “fine” at first glance — but one number changes everything: 🔥 Deferred revenue +25% YoY This is future profit already locked in and waiting to be recognized. If you follow China gaming, you know: Deferred revenue spikes → earnings beat in the next 1–2 quarters. And the setup looks strong: 🎮 PC games +33% YoY after Blizzard’s return 📱 Mobile still growing with legacy blockbusters + new momentum 🚀 A loaded 2026 pipeline: Forgotten Seas, Unbounded, Starry Abyss, Returning Tang — multiple titles capable of becoming annual hits. Profitability is inflecting too: Non-GAAP NP +26.7% YoY Youdao: 5th consecutive profitable quarter Cloud Music: stable
NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

XPeng 2026: From EV Maker to Full-Stack AI Tech

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$   $小鹏汽车-W(09868)$   XPeng may be entering its strongest transformation phase yet — shifting from a pure EV manufacturer to a full-stack AI technology company. 🔥 EREV strategy is working The new X9 delivers 1602 km range, leading the global 7-seater segment and driving XPeng’s return to strong monthly deliveries. 🔥 Robotaxi commercialization in 2026 XPeng will launch three mass-produced Robotaxi models, powered by its VLA 2.0 model with 260 km/disengagement, one of the best in China. 🔥 Partnership with Volkswagen deepens VW will use XPeng’s architecture beginning 2026, and XPeng’s self-developed Turing AI chip has already been officially adopted — a major milestone. 🔥 Humanoid r
XPeng 2026: From EV Maker to Full-Stack AI Tech

Baozun 3Q25: Real Profit Turnaround Underway — Can BZUN Sustain the Momentum?

$宝尊电商(BZUN)$  $宝尊电商-W(09991)$  Baozun just posted one of its most encouraging quarters in years. 🔥 Non-GAAP net loss narrowed sharply to RMB –40m 🔥 BEC (e-commerce services) returned to profit with RMB 28m OP 🔥 BBM (brand management) revenue jumped 20%, driven by GAP and Hunter 🔥 GAP’s young customer base up 25% thanks to targeted campaigns Operational efficiency is clearly improving: Fulfilment cost ratio dropped –4.5pts YoY Inventory turnover improved ~20% Service revenue mix continues to rise CMBI now expects: ✔ BEC profit to surge in 4Q25 ✔ BBM to break even by 4Q25 ✔ Target price raised to US$3.81, BUY maintained Key question for investors: Is Baozun entering a multi-quarter recovery cycle? Or w
Baozun 3Q25: Real Profit Turnaround Underway — Can BZUN Sustain the Momentum?

Moore Threads’ IPO just sent China’s local GPU race into overdrive.

$摩尔线程(688795)$  Retail investors piled into the deal with 4,000× subscription, signalling massive appetite for domestic AI chip plays as China pushes to replace Nvidia hardware. The Beijing-based GPU start-up — founded in 2020 by former Nvidia China head James Zhang and staffed with ex-Nvidia/AMD veterans — has launched four generations of GPUs (Sudi, Chunxiao, Quyuan, Pinghu) despite being on the U.S. Entity List. Key numbers investors overlooked: 2024 revenue: RMB 438.5m (+200% 3-yr CAGR) 2024 net loss: RMB –1.5bn (heavy R&D + inventory) 1H25 revenue: RMB 701.8m 1H25 net loss: narrowed to RMB –271m IPO proceeds: RMB 8bn Valuation: RMB 53.7bn Backers include Tencent, ByteDance, Sequoia China, GGV and Shenzhen Capital Group — almost 90 sha
Moore Threads’ IPO just sent China’s local GPU race into overdrive.

Salesforce 3QFY26: AI Revenue Is Exploding — Is CRM Entering Its Next Supercycle?

$赛富时(CRM)$   Salesforce just posted one of its strongest AI-driven quarters yet. 🔥 AI ARR jumped 114% YoY (Agentforce + Data 360) 🔥 Agentforce ARR surged 330% YoY, with over 3.2 trillion tokens processed 🔥 The company closed 9,500 Agentforce deals — up 50% QoQ Meanwhile, operating margin improved and cRPO growth outpaced expectations. Management now believes AI will be a multi-year growth engine, with FY30 revenue still tracking toward US$60B. But here’s the key question: Is Salesforce becoming the leading enterprise AI agent platform, or is the market already pricing in perfection? What’s your take on CRM right now?
Salesforce 3QFY26: AI Revenue Is Exploding — Is CRM Entering Its Next Supercycle?

JD Industrials IPO: China’s No.1 Industrial Supply Chain Platform — Worth Subscribing?

$京东工业(07618)$  JD Industrials (7618.HK) — often called “China’s No.1 industrial supply chain platform” — is finally coming to market. Here are the key takeaways from the latest IPO review: 🔹 Huge Market Opportunity China’s industrial supply chain market is heading toward RMB 1.1 trillion by 2029, with low digital penetration. 🔹 Strong Platform Fundamentals Over 81 million SKUs, 11,000+ enterprise clients, and the largest share in China’s MRO/B2B industrial segment. 🔹 Solid Growth Trend 1H25 revenue +19%, improving gross margin (18.6%), and rising adjusted profit. 🔹 JD Ecosystem Advantage Integrated logistics + supply chain + fulfillment give JD Industrials a real moat. But there are risks: ⚠ Gross margin still lower vs global peers ⚠ Heavy reli
JD Industrials IPO: China’s No.1 Industrial Supply Chain Platform — Worth Subscribing?

Alibaba 2QFY26: Cloud Explodes, but QC Burns the Profits — Turning Point or Trap?

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$   $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$   Alibaba just posted one of its most contradictory quarters in years. ☁ Cloud revenue jumped 34.5% YoY — the strongest growth since the restructuring. 🔥 But adj. EBITA collapsed 78%, dragged down by heavy investment in quick commerce (QC). Here’s the twist: Management says cloud demand is so strong that supply can’t keep up, and QC losses have been cut by 50% per order since August. And Keeta Hong Kong? ➡ Turned profitable in just 29 months, beating its own 36-month target. So the big question: Is Alibaba entering a new “cloud + quick commerce” synergy cycle? Or will QC continue burning profits?
Alibaba 2QFY26: Cloud Explodes, but QC Burns the Profits — Turning Point or Trap?

Meituan 3Q25: Massive Loss, FD Spending Peaked — Is a Turnaround Coming?

$美团-W(03690)$   $美团ADR(MPNGY)$   Meituan’s 3Q25 numbers were messy: revenue missed, and the adjusted loss ballooned to –RMB 16bn — one of the worst quarters since listing. But here’s the twist: Analysts believe food-delivery spending may have already peaked in 3Q25, with competition easing in Oct–Nov. If true, 4Q25 could be the start of margin stabilization. Meanwhile, Keeta Hong Kong turned profitable in just 29 months, much faster than expected — and Meituan is preparing to replicate this model in GCC markets. So the real question now: Is Meituan finally shifting from “burning cash” to “creating value”? Or is the competition (Douyin + Ele.me) still too strong for a real recovery?
Meituan 3Q25: Massive Loss, FD Spending Peaked — Is a Turnaround Coming?
One Chart to Understand Li Auto’s 3Q25 Slowdown: What Really Happened? 一图读懂理想汽车 2025 年 Q3:放缓背后的真正原因 $理想汽车(LI)$   $理想汽车-W(02015)$ 
One Chart to Understand a Hong Kong–Singapore Dual-Listed Company: 一图读懂香港,新加坡双重上市公司: $Infinity Dev(ZBA.SI)$  $星谦发展(00640)$  
一图读懂研报: $金味有限公司(1D0.SI)$ 
一图读懂Singtel第二季度财报 $新电信(Z74.SI)$  
🇸🇬 【Market Question 】 Rents in Singapore seem to be firming up again over the past few weeks — especially around the CBD fringe, Buona Vista, and the East side. Even co-living and serviced apartments I’ve been tracking are back to above 90% occupancy, which is pretty telling. It got me thinking: If residential rents continue rising into next year, which segment do you think benefits the most? 1️⃣ Co-living operators (Coliwoo, Hmlet, Weave) 2️⃣ Student accommodation (Centurion, Far East Orchard) 3️⃣ Worker dorms (Centurion REIT) 4️⃣ Hospitality / Serviced apartment REITs I have a view, but I’m curious to hear what the community thinks first. — SG Visual Research
One Chart to Understand the New Listing: $Coliwoo Hldgs(W8W.SI)$ 

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