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08-07

大模型屁用没有，深蓝国际象棋下的好过人类围棋也打败人类了，就应该出行业模型比如医生教师各行各业专属模型！

Gemini崩塌，Meta反超成为“AI老三”？谷歌会是一年前的Meta 吗？

08-07

下一季财报，现金流负500亿，不打骨折

Alphabet启动250亿美元发债，获超四倍认购，热度超越亚马逊和SpaceX

07-22

谷歌还增加开支，傻了吗

谷歌重磅财报夜，将上调Capex指引？资深分析师：2026年或冲击2000亿美元

07-07

疯了

最长四十年期！亚马逊拟发行至少250亿美元债券，加码AI基础设施投资

07-06

18良率还不行就推14

盘前异动 | 英特尔盘前涨超3%，评估14A2双面供电架构，1.4nm级制程推进背面供电优化

06-28

疯狂投入买硬件时代结束了，优化算法比算力更重要

谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张

05-21

其实国内一直偷偷买

英伟达Q1营收超预期增85%，指引再新高仍不够亮眼，新增回购800亿且大幅上调股息

05-13

涨给特朗普看

异动｜中国资产爆发！世纪互联涨超30%，阿里、京东涨超8%

05-13

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 丧事喜办

05-05

AMD肯定预期不行，为什么呢！因为GPU投入太大了，GPU需求开始下降了，数据中心一直不是英特尔对手，内存价格上涨，装机减少！怎么看英特尔都是CPU需求增长最大受益者

04-30

下一次谷歌也赢不了

科技巨头财报大比拼，为什么只有谷歌赢了？

04-13

故事大王

牵手国家级数据交易所！迅策科技加速布局垂类Token工厂，股价暴涨22%

04-10

没人紧张，不赚钱都没用

匿名霸榜、阿里认领，HappyHorse让谁紧张？

03-23

没有用了，AI泡沫破裂了

阿里明日或将发布重要芯片产品

03-18

忽悠接着忽悠，客户在哪？客户怎么赚钱？

百度AI算力、文件存储等产品涨价，最高达30%

03-09

活不过一年

伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴将发表讲话

02-28

讲故事已经不行了！AI不赚钱只有芯片赚钱！

抱歉，原内容已删除

02-21

我买了put

财报前瞻｜英伟达Q4放榜在即！四大维度决定业绩成色与长期估值，高盛、瑞银预计将大超预期

02-20

加把劲，市值超过百度！😂

智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，总市值突破3000亿港元

02-16

没人看了，啥用没有

以小胜大！千问Qwen3.5重磅发布，每百万Token仅0.8元

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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14:11","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Gemini崩塌，Meta反超成为“AI老三”？谷歌会是一年前的Meta 吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2657694191","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"单日市值蒸发逾1800亿美元！Gemini延期引爆谷歌AI高层大地震：顶尖人才集体出走，Hassabis退位。实干派全面接权。谷歌彻底抛弃“研究机构”幻想，转向残酷的AI工业化落地。这场迟来的现实主义洗牌能否挽救其AI霸权？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>正在经历一场创立近30年来最深刻的AI领导层重组。Gemini旗舰模型持续落后、顶尖人才集体出走，迫使谷歌在&#34;伟大研究机构&#34;与&#34;残酷模型产品公司&#34;之间作出迟来已久的抉择——而这个抉择，正在从根本上重塑这家公司的AI战略逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年8月5日，谷歌宣布Demis Hassabis卸任Google DeepMind CEO，转任Alphabet首席科学家及Google DeepMind董事长。消息发布仅数分钟前，在谷歌工作27年的Jeff Dean与Oriol Vinyals、Sanjay Ghemawat、Quoc Le联合宣布离职，创立AI科研公司Discovery Loop。与此同时，Koray Kavukcuoglu接任Google DeepMind日常运营，全面掌管模型开发、前沿研究、Gemini应用及开发者生态，直接向CEO Sundar Pichai汇报。消息公布后，谷歌母公司Alphabet股价单日蒸发逾1800亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e66fae0542ac8a19b9201ac78c965163\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1930\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是一次早已酝酿的权力转移的最终制度化，而非突如其来的人事地震。原定于2026年夏季发布的Gemini 3.5 Pro迟迟未能上线，OpenAI和Anthropic则在coding agent、长任务执行等关键赛道持续领跑。就在不到两个月前，参与设计Gemini技术架构的Noam Shazeer已转投OpenAI，与Hassabis共同获得诺贝尔奖的John Jumper则加盟Anthropic。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>I黄金一代的集体撤离，标志着一个时代的终结。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">旗舰模型延期，人才外流加速</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gemini 3.5 Pro的发布延误是此次管理层变动最直接的导火索。据报道，该模型原计划于今年夏天推出，截至7月下旬仍处于合作伙伴测试阶段，谷歌仅表示将在&#34;准备好后&#34;广泛上线。与此同时，内部团队已启动Gemini 4的训练工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">人才流失同步加剧。此次与Jeff Dean一同出走的Oriol Vinyals，曾是谷歌对抗Anthropic和OpenAI的核心将领之一。在更早之前，Noam Shazeer加入OpenAI，John Jumper转投Anthropic。Jeremy Nixon曾在Google Brain从事研究工作，他将Jeff Dean的离职形容为&#34;几乎难以想象&#34;，并警告称：&#34;这可能是谷歌长期以来首次真正意义上的危机时刻。谷歌的人才流失速度无人能及。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌7月发布了若干小型AI模型，包括一款专注网络安全的产品，在编程和金融任务基准测试中表现尚可，但未能超越竞争对手。与此同时，谷歌维持着大规模资本投入——公司预计今年在数据中心及AI基础设施上的支出将达1950亿至2050亿美元，较去年的850亿美元翻番以上。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三年组织矛盾的总爆发</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次调整的根源，可追溯至2023年4月谷歌将Google Brain与DeepMind合并的决定。合并之初，外界普遍将其解读为集中顶尖AI人才、加速研发的战略之举。然而，谷歌在合并时混淆了两个性质截然不同的问题：人才能否集中，与集中后应做什么，是两回事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Google Brain自诞生起便与谷歌的搜索、广告和基础设施体系深度绑定，天然具有工程交付属性。DeepMind则始终将自身定位为接近&#34;阿波罗计划&#34;的事业——先解决智能本身，再用智能解决一切问题。<strong>Hassabis的核心兴趣从未是提升下一季度的Token销售，而是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>、世界模型与科学发现；AlphaFold的诺贝尔奖级成就，也赋予这种长期主义以无可辩驳的正当性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去三年，谷歌一边要求DeepMind服务于数十亿用户规模的商业产品需求，一边又不愿放弃DeepMind作为顶级研究圣地的光环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据与谷歌AI高层多有接触的行业人士描述，在冲刺Gemini 2.5的阶段，负责数据管线和RLHF等核心工作的团队已以创业公司的节奏通宵加班，但保持研究院风格的DeepMind部分团队仍在&#34;探索某两个方向如何结合&#34;的松弛惯性中运转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hassabis在组织上名义主导全局，实际关注却始终指向AGI与科学使命；Jeff Dean保留着首席科学家头衔，但Google Brain路线在合并后已逐渐失去组织主导权；Koray Kavukcuoglu则被悄然赋予越来越多的产品整合责任，权力结构早已悄然改变，头衔却仍保留着旧秩序的外壳。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">权力转移早在一年前完成</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">事实上，此次人事调整不过是将过去一年已经发生的权力变化彻底制度化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年6月，谷歌为Kavukcuoglu专门设立Chief AI Architect职位，同时晋升其为高级副总裁，并将汇报线调整为直接向Pichai负责。Pichai在内部备忘录中写明，Kavukcuoglu的新使命是让谷歌最领先的模型更快进入产品，实现更顺畅的整合、更快的迭代与更高的效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌对Kavukcuoglu的官方定位也在彼时悄然转变——不再只是DeepMind的技术负责人，而是明确领导Gemini生成式AI模型的开发及其在谷歌产品中的规模化集成。他是DeepMind早期成员，曾参与构建DQN深度强化学习系统，师从AI先驱Yann LeCun，研究背景扎实；与Hassabis不同的是，他在讨论技术路线时总会最终落回到具体的产品落地与用户需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在Kavukcuoglu看来，原生多模态的价值不在于跑分，而在于使模型能够完成此前根本无法完成的任务。这种务实导向，正是谷歌当前阶段所需要的。谷歌不是今天才认定Kavukcuoglu更适合掌管Gemini，只是一直不愿公开否定Hassabis的领导安排。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌的&#34;TBD战略&#34;与工业化AI时代</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>谷歌过去三年奉行的，实质上是一种&#34;待定（TBD）战略&#34;——在&#34;伟大研究机构&#34;与&#34;残酷模型产品公司&#34;之间始终不愿作出清晰选择，寄望于两全其美，结果两端皆未做到最好。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一逻辑在AI发展早期尚能成立——当时一次底层技术突破仍可拉开代际差距，天才时刻值得等待。但进入当前阶段，模型竞争越来越依赖高密度实验、数据工程、推理优化、成本控制和持续交付，而非等待下一个AlphaGo时刻。每三个月不掉队，成为比&#34;下一个十年改变科学&#34;更紧迫的生存命题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次调整后，谷歌形成了新的分工格局：<strong>Kavukcuoglu带队高强度训练与迭代；Pichai负责将模型嵌入谷歌旗下每一项业务；Hassabis转向AGI、科学发现与Isomorphic Labs的AI制药研究；Jeff Dean则携手老搭档重新创业，谷歌为其提供投资与云服务支持，静待未来技术成果纳入生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是一种现实主义的安排，也是一次明确的失败承认。那个让外界相信大公司可以由一群天才科学家决定AI方向的谷歌，正在成为历史。至于谷歌能否在Kavukcuoglu的工业化执行逻辑下重建竞争力，还是会步入更深的人才离心漩涡，市场正在寻找答案——而Gemini 3.5 Pro何时亮相，将是最早的一块试金石。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGemini崩塌，Meta反超成为“AI老三”？谷歌会是一年前的Meta 吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-07 14:11</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>正在经历一场创立近30年来最深刻的AI领导层重组。Gemini旗舰模型持续落后、顶尖人才集体出走，迫使谷歌在&#34;伟大研究机构&#34;与&#34;残酷模型产品公司&#34;之间作出迟来已久的抉择——而这个抉择，正在从根本上重塑这家公司的AI战略逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2026年8月5日，谷歌宣布Demis Hassabis卸任Google DeepMind CEO，转任Alphabet首席科学家及Google DeepMind董事长。消息发布仅数分钟前，在谷歌工作27年的Jeff Dean与Oriol Vinyals、Sanjay Ghemawat、Quoc Le联合宣布离职，创立AI科研公司Discovery Loop。与此同时，Koray Kavukcuoglu接任Google DeepMind日常运营，全面掌管模型开发、前沿研究、Gemini应用及开发者生态，直接向CEO Sundar Pichai汇报。消息公布后，谷歌母公司Alphabet股价单日蒸发逾1800亿美元。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/e66fae0542ac8a19b9201ac78c965163\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1930\" tg-height=\"1212\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是一次早已酝酿的权力转移的最终制度化，而非突如其来的人事地震。原定于2026年夏季发布的Gemini 3.5 Pro迟迟未能上线，OpenAI和Anthropic则在coding agent、长任务执行等关键赛道持续领跑。就在不到两个月前，参与设计Gemini技术架构的Noam Shazeer已转投OpenAI，与Hassabis共同获得诺贝尔奖的John Jumper则加盟Anthropic。<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌A</a>I黄金一代的集体撤离，标志着一个时代的终结。</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">旗舰模型延期，人才外流加速</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Gemini 3.5 Pro的发布延误是此次管理层变动最直接的导火索。据报道，该模型原计划于今年夏天推出，截至7月下旬仍处于合作伙伴测试阶段，谷歌仅表示将在&#34;准备好后&#34;广泛上线。与此同时，内部团队已启动Gemini 4的训练工作。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">人才流失同步加剧。此次与Jeff Dean一同出走的Oriol Vinyals，曾是谷歌对抗Anthropic和OpenAI的核心将领之一。在更早之前，Noam Shazeer加入OpenAI，John Jumper转投Anthropic。Jeremy Nixon曾在Google Brain从事研究工作，他将Jeff Dean的离职形容为&#34;几乎难以想象&#34;，并警告称：&#34;这可能是谷歌长期以来首次真正意义上的危机时刻。谷歌的人才流失速度无人能及。&#34;</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌7月发布了若干小型AI模型，包括一款专注网络安全的产品，在编程和金融任务基准测试中表现尚可，但未能超越竞争对手。与此同时，谷歌维持着大规模资本投入——公司预计今年在数据中心及AI基础设施上的支出将达1950亿至2050亿美元，较去年的850亿美元翻番以上。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三年组织矛盾的总爆发</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次调整的根源，可追溯至2023年4月谷歌将Google Brain与DeepMind合并的决定。合并之初，外界普遍将其解读为集中顶尖AI人才、加速研发的战略之举。然而，谷歌在合并时混淆了两个性质截然不同的问题：人才能否集中，与集中后应做什么，是两回事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Google Brain自诞生起便与谷歌的搜索、广告和基础设施体系深度绑定，天然具有工程交付属性。DeepMind则始终将自身定位为接近&#34;阿波罗计划&#34;的事业——先解决智能本身，再用智能解决一切问题。<strong>Hassabis的核心兴趣从未是提升下一季度的Token销售，而是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AGBK\">AGI</a>、世界模型与科学发现；AlphaFold的诺贝尔奖级成就，也赋予这种长期主义以无可辩驳的正当性。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">过去三年，谷歌一边要求DeepMind服务于数十亿用户规模的商业产品需求，一边又不愿放弃DeepMind作为顶级研究圣地的光环。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>据与谷歌AI高层多有接触的行业人士描述，在冲刺Gemini 2.5的阶段，负责数据管线和RLHF等核心工作的团队已以创业公司的节奏通宵加班，但保持研究院风格的DeepMind部分团队仍在&#34;探索某两个方向如何结合&#34;的松弛惯性中运转。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Hassabis在组织上名义主导全局，实际关注却始终指向AGI与科学使命；Jeff Dean保留着首席科学家头衔，但Google Brain路线在合并后已逐渐失去组织主导权；Koray Kavukcuoglu则被悄然赋予越来越多的产品整合责任，权力结构早已悄然改变，头衔却仍保留着旧秩序的外壳。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">权力转移早在一年前完成</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">事实上，此次人事调整不过是将过去一年已经发生的权力变化彻底制度化。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">2025年6月，谷歌为Kavukcuoglu专门设立Chief AI Architect职位，同时晋升其为高级副总裁，并将汇报线调整为直接向Pichai负责。Pichai在内部备忘录中写明，Kavukcuoglu的新使命是让谷歌最领先的模型更快进入产品，实现更顺畅的整合、更快的迭代与更高的效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌对Kavukcuoglu的官方定位也在彼时悄然转变——不再只是DeepMind的技术负责人，而是明确领导Gemini生成式AI模型的开发及其在谷歌产品中的规模化集成。他是DeepMind早期成员，曾参与构建DQN深度强化学习系统，师从AI先驱Yann LeCun，研究背景扎实；与Hassabis不同的是，他在讨论技术路线时总会最终落回到具体的产品落地与用户需求。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在Kavukcuoglu看来，原生多模态的价值不在于跑分，而在于使模型能够完成此前根本无法完成的任务。这种务实导向，正是谷歌当前阶段所需要的。谷歌不是今天才认定Kavukcuoglu更适合掌管Gemini，只是一直不愿公开否定Hassabis的领导安排。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌的&#34;TBD战略&#34;与工业化AI时代</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>谷歌过去三年奉行的，实质上是一种&#34;待定（TBD）战略&#34;——在&#34;伟大研究机构&#34;与&#34;残酷模型产品公司&#34;之间始终不愿作出清晰选择，寄望于两全其美，结果两端皆未做到最好。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一逻辑在AI发展早期尚能成立——当时一次底层技术突破仍可拉开代际差距，天才时刻值得等待。但进入当前阶段，模型竞争越来越依赖高密度实验、数据工程、推理优化、成本控制和持续交付，而非等待下一个AlphaGo时刻。每三个月不掉队，成为比&#34;下一个十年改变科学&#34;更紧迫的生存命题。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此次调整后，谷歌形成了新的分工格局：<strong>Kavukcuoglu带队高强度训练与迭代；Pichai负责将模型嵌入谷歌旗下每一项业务；Hassabis转向AGI、科学发现与Isomorphic Labs的AI制药研究；Jeff Dean则携手老搭档重新创业，谷歌为其提供投资与云服务支持，静待未来技术成果纳入生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是一种现实主义的安排，也是一次明确的失败承认。那个让外界相信大公司可以由一群天才科学家决定AI方向的谷歌，正在成为历史。至于谷歌能否在Kavukcuoglu的工业化执行逻辑下重建竞争力，还是会步入更深的人才离心漩涡，市场正在寻找答案——而Gemini 3.5 Pro何时亮相，将是最早的一块试金石。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f41a30bb04d9de6640eaefee10257833","relate_stocks":{"LU0690374961.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) INC","LU0345769631.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1244550577.SGD":"FTIF - Franklin Global Multi-Asset Income A (Mdis) SGD-H1","IE00B19Z9505.USD":"美盛-美国大盘成长股A Acc","LU0477156953.USD":"HARRIS ASSOCIATES US VALUE EQUITY \"RE\" (USD) ACC","LU0211326839.USD":"TEMPLETON GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0690374615.EUR":"FUNDSMITH EQUITY \"R\" (EUR) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC 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Pro的发布延误是此次管理层变动最直接的导火索。据报道，该模型原计划于今年夏天推出，截至7月下旬仍处于合作伙伴测试阶段，谷歌仅表示将在\"准备好后\"广泛上线。与此同时，内部团队已启动Gemini 4的训练工作。人才流失同步加剧。此次与Jeff Dean一同出走的Oriol Vinyals，曾是谷歌对抗Anthropic和OpenAI的核心将领之一。在更早之前，Noam Shazeer加入OpenAI，John Jumper转投Anthropic。Jeremy Nixon曾在Google Brain从事研究工作，他将Jeff Dean的离职形容为\"几乎难以想象\"，并警告称：\"这可能是谷歌长期以来首次真正意义上的危机时刻。谷歌的人才流失速度无人能及。\"谷歌7月发布了若干小型AI模型，包括一款专注网络安全的产品，在编程和金融任务基准测试中表现尚可，但未能超越竞争对手。与此同时，谷歌维持着大规模资本投入——公司预计今年在数据中心及AI基础设施上的支出将达1950亿至2050亿美元，较去年的850亿美元翻番以上。三年组织矛盾的总爆发此次调整的根源，可追溯至2023年4月谷歌将Google Brain与DeepMind合并的决定。合并之初，外界普遍将其解读为集中顶尖AI人才、加速研发的战略之举。然而，谷歌在合并时混淆了两个性质截然不同的问题：人才能否集中，与集中后应做什么，是两回事。Google Brain自诞生起便与谷歌的搜索、广告和基础设施体系深度绑定，天然具有工程交付属性。DeepMind则始终将自身定位为接近\"阿波罗计划\"的事业——先解决智能本身，再用智能解决一切问题。Hassabis的核心兴趣从未是提升下一季度的Token销售，而是AGI、世界模型与科学发现；AlphaFold的诺贝尔奖级成就，也赋予这种长期主义以无可辩驳的正当性。过去三年，谷歌一边要求DeepMind服务于数十亿用户规模的商业产品需求，一边又不愿放弃DeepMind作为顶级研究圣地的光环。据与谷歌AI高层多有接触的行业人士描述，在冲刺Gemini 2.5的阶段，负责数据管线和RLHF等核心工作的团队已以创业公司的节奏通宵加班，但保持研究院风格的DeepMind部分团队仍在\"探索某两个方向如何结合\"的松弛惯性中运转。Hassabis在组织上名义主导全局，实际关注却始终指向AGI与科学使命；Jeff Dean保留着首席科学家头衔，但Google Brain路线在合并后已逐渐失去组织主导权；Koray Kavukcuoglu则被悄然赋予越来越多的产品整合责任，权力结构早已悄然改变，头衔却仍保留着旧秩序的外壳。权力转移早在一年前完成事实上，此次人事调整不过是将过去一年已经发生的权力变化彻底制度化。2025年6月，谷歌为Kavukcuoglu专门设立Chief AI Architect职位，同时晋升其为高级副总裁，并将汇报线调整为直接向Pichai负责。Pichai在内部备忘录中写明，Kavukcuoglu的新使命是让谷歌最领先的模型更快进入产品，实现更顺畅的整合、更快的迭代与更高的效率。谷歌对Kavukcuoglu的官方定位也在彼时悄然转变——不再只是DeepMind的技术负责人，而是明确领导Gemini生成式AI模型的开发及其在谷歌产品中的规模化集成。他是DeepMind早期成员，曾参与构建DQN深度强化学习系统，师从AI先驱Yann LeCun，研究背景扎实；与Hassabis不同的是，他在讨论技术路线时总会最终落回到具体的产品落地与用户需求。在Kavukcuoglu看来，原生多模态的价值不在于跑分，而在于使模型能够完成此前根本无法完成的任务。这种务实导向，正是谷歌当前阶段所需要的。谷歌不是今天才认定Kavukcuoglu更适合掌管Gemini，只是一直不愿公开否定Hassabis的领导安排。谷歌的\"TBD战略\"与工业化AI时代谷歌过去三年奉行的，实质上是一种\"待定（TBD）战略\"——在\"伟大研究机构\"与\"残酷模型产品公司\"之间始终不愿作出清晰选择，寄望于两全其美，结果两端皆未做到最好。这一逻辑在AI发展早期尚能成立——当时一次底层技术突破仍可拉开代际差距，天才时刻值得等待。但进入当前阶段，模型竞争越来越依赖高密度实验、数据工程、推理优化、成本控制和持续交付，而非等待下一个AlphaGo时刻。每三个月不掉队，成为比\"下一个十年改变科学\"更紧迫的生存命题。此次调整后，谷歌形成了新的分工格局：Kavukcuoglu带队高强度训练与迭代；Pichai负责将模型嵌入谷歌旗下每一项业务；Hassabis转向AGI、科学发现与Isomorphic Labs的AI制药研究；Jeff Dean则携手老搭档重新创业，谷歌为其提供投资与云服务支持，静待未来技术成果纳入生态。这是一种现实主义的安排，也是一次明确的失败承认。那个让外界相信大公司可以由一群天才科学家决定AI方向的谷歌，正在成为历史。至于谷歌能否在Kavukcuoglu的工业化执行逻辑下重建竞争力，还是会步入更深的人才离心漩涡，市场正在寻找答案——而Gemini 3.5 Pro何时亮相，将是最早的一块试金石。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOU":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOG":2.1,"FCOM":0.6,"FBYY":0.6,"CQTM":0.6,"GOOGL":2.1,"GGLL":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SKYY":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"VOX":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"FBL":0.6,"METW":0.6,"METD":0.6,"LTL":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"METU":0.6,"FBY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"TRUC":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"XDAT":0.6,"META":2.1,"GXPC":0.6,"METV":0.6,"XLC":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"CMAG":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":419,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3582775585343989","authorId":"3582775585343989","name":"多云轩","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3582775585343989","idStr":"3582775585343989"},"content":"你让那么多中产下岗会出大乱子的","text":"你让那么多中产下岗会出大乱子的","html":"你让那么多中产下岗会出大乱子的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":594140546334984,"gmtCreate":1786070527565,"gmtModify":1786070529409,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"下一季财报，现金流负500亿，不打骨折","listText":"下一季财报，现金流负500亿，不打骨折","text":"下一季财报，现金流负500亿，不打骨折","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/594140546334984","repostId":"1102054079","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1102054079","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1786060106,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1102054079?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-07 07:48","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Alphabet启动250亿美元发债，获超四倍认购，热度超越亚马逊和SpaceX","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1102054079","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"此次需求超过了亚马逊和SpaceX等公司近期人工智能相关债券发行的认购热度。就在约两周前，Alphabet将2026年资本开支预期上调至最高2050亿美元，超过2025年支出规模的两倍，令市场对AI投资回报的疑虑重燃。本次债券发行启动后，Alphabet今年2月发行的债券利差扩大。在债券市场，Alphabet发债计划与美联储潜在加息预期的叠加，构成了当日美债承压的双重驱动。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet正寻求通过新一轮美元投资级债券发行筹资最多250亿美元，此举不仅考验投资者对AI相关债务的真实胃口，更直接推动长端美债收益率走高，令市场承压。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据报道6日援引知情人士透露，<strong>Alphabet此次债券发行分拆为10个部分，期限覆盖2年至40年，最长期限档的初始价格指导利差约为高于美国国债155个基点。最终发行规模尚未确定。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">受上述消息影响，美债收益率全线走高3至4个基点，长期债券领跌，10年期美债收益率升至约4.65%，2s10s、5s30s期限利差均扩大至盘中最阔水平。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/5fef9bb2ec6844b990b8bc638dc350cf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"432\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>此次债券发行的认购订单规模约达1150亿美元，超过预期发行规模的四倍以上。这表明在近期抛售后，投资者对与人工智能热潮相关的债券需求重新回暖。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次需求超过了亚马逊和SpaceX等公司近期人工智能相关债券发行的认购热度。Alphabet此笔交易向投资者提供了相对较高的发行让步。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次发债的时间节点颇为敏感。就在约两周前，<strong>Alphabet将2026年资本开支预期上调至最高2050亿美元，超过2025年支出规模的两倍，令市场对AI投资回报的疑虑重燃。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">本次债券发行启动后，Alphabet今年2月发行的债券利差扩大。截至美国东部时间上午10:28，与周三收盘水平相比，利差扩大了6-12个基点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与此同时，短端美债亦受另一重压力：据英国《金融时报》报道，美联储主席沃什若在未来几周看到偏热通胀数据，将准备在9月会议上加息，报道发布后短期美债收益率同步走高。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>AI债券需求降温，市场承接压力上升</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet此次发债，是在AI基础设施融资需求与投资者信心出现裂痕的背景下推进的。上周，一家与贝莱德关联的公司为Meta Platforms位于德克萨斯州的数据中心项目发行了125亿美元债券，初始需求冷淡，此前亚马逊的相关债券发行同样遭遇认购热情不足。包括SpaceX在内的多家企业新发AI相关债券，二级市场利差亦出现走阔。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>2025年以来，大型科技公司通过债券市场累计融资逾3500亿美元，其中Alphabet与亚马逊居于领跑位置。</strong>Alphabet仅在2026年上半年便已发债逾500亿美元，发行币种涵盖瑞士法郎、英镑、欧元、加元及日元等多种货币，并于约两个月前完成近850亿美元的股票增发。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left; padding-left: 10px;\"><strong>融资规模持续扩张，现金流首现负值</strong></h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">持续攀升的资本支出已在Alphabet财务数据上留下明显印记。大规模资本开支拖累Alphabet出现自IPO以来首个自由现金流为负的季度，市场对超大规模科技公司&#34;负现金流时代提前到来&#34;的担忧由此加剧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Alphabet同步提交申请，拟发行最多400亿美元的A类和C类股票，进一步扩充资本储备，为持续扩张的AI基础设施投入提供弹药。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在债券市场，Alphabet发债计划与美联储潜在加息预期的叠加，构成了当日美债承压的双重驱动。长端收益率受供给压力推升更为显著，带动收益率曲线整体陡化。利率市场目前仍计入约15个基点的9月加息预期，至年底累计加息预期约达33个基点，市场对货币政策路径的不确定性仍高。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于固定收益投资者而言，如何在AI资本开支扩张带来的供给冲击与潜在利率上行风险之间寻求平衡，正成为当前不得不面对的核心命题。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAlphabet启动250亿美元发债，获超四倍认购，热度超越亚马逊和SpaceX\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-08-07 07:48 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778864><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Alphabet正寻求通过新一轮美元投资级债券发行筹资最多250亿美元，此举不仅考验投资者对AI相关债务的真实胃口，更直接推动长端美债收益率走高，令市场承压。据报道6日援引知情人士透露，Alphabet此次债券发行分拆为10个部分，期限覆盖2年至40年，最长期限档的初始价格指导利差约为高于美国国债155个基点。最终发行规模尚未确定。受上述消息影响，美债收益率全线走高3至4个基点，长期债券领跌，10...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778864\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46029346cc3e64319c2b318fd1af0381","relate_stocks":{"GOOX":"2倍做多GOOG ETF-T-REX","GOOG":"谷歌","GOU":"GraniteShares 2x Long GOOGL Daily ETF","GOOP":"KURV YIELD PREMIUM STRATEGY GOOGLE (GOOGL) ETF","GOOY":"GOOGL期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","GOOGL":"谷歌A","GGLL":"2倍做多GOOGL-Direxion","GOOW":"Roundhill GOOGL WeeklyPay ETF","GGLS":"1倍做空GOOGL ETF-Direxion"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3778864","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1102054079","content_text":"Alphabet正寻求通过新一轮美元投资级债券发行筹资最多250亿美元，此举不仅考验投资者对AI相关债务的真实胃口，更直接推动长端美债收益率走高，令市场承压。据报道6日援引知情人士透露，Alphabet此次债券发行分拆为10个部分，期限覆盖2年至40年，最长期限档的初始价格指导利差约为高于美国国债155个基点。最终发行规模尚未确定。受上述消息影响，美债收益率全线走高3至4个基点，长期债券领跌，10年期美债收益率升至约4.65%，2s10s、5s30s期限利差均扩大至盘中最阔水平。此次债券发行的认购订单规模约达1150亿美元，超过预期发行规模的四倍以上。这表明在近期抛售后，投资者对与人工智能热潮相关的债券需求重新回暖。此次需求超过了亚马逊和SpaceX等公司近期人工智能相关债券发行的认购热度。Alphabet此笔交易向投资者提供了相对较高的发行让步。此次发债的时间节点颇为敏感。就在约两周前，Alphabet将2026年资本开支预期上调至最高2050亿美元，超过2025年支出规模的两倍，令市场对AI投资回报的疑虑重燃。本次债券发行启动后，Alphabet今年2月发行的债券利差扩大。截至美国东部时间上午10:28，与周三收盘水平相比，利差扩大了6-12个基点。与此同时，短端美债亦受另一重压力：据英国《金融时报》报道，美联储主席沃什若在未来几周看到偏热通胀数据，将准备在9月会议上加息，报道发布后短期美债收益率同步走高。AI债券需求降温，市场承接压力上升Alphabet此次发债，是在AI基础设施融资需求与投资者信心出现裂痕的背景下推进的。上周，一家与贝莱德关联的公司为Meta Platforms位于德克萨斯州的数据中心项目发行了125亿美元债券，初始需求冷淡，此前亚马逊的相关债券发行同样遭遇认购热情不足。包括SpaceX在内的多家企业新发AI相关债券，二级市场利差亦出现走阔。2025年以来，大型科技公司通过债券市场累计融资逾3500亿美元，其中Alphabet与亚马逊居于领跑位置。Alphabet仅在2026年上半年便已发债逾500亿美元，发行币种涵盖瑞士法郎、英镑、欧元、加元及日元等多种货币，并于约两个月前完成近850亿美元的股票增发。融资规模持续扩张，现金流首现负值持续攀升的资本支出已在Alphabet财务数据上留下明显印记。大规模资本开支拖累Alphabet出现自IPO以来首个自由现金流为负的季度，市场对超大规模科技公司\"负现金流时代提前到来\"的担忧由此加剧。Alphabet同步提交申请，拟发行最多400亿美元的A类和C类股票，进一步扩充资本储备，为持续扩张的AI基础设施投入提供弹药。在债券市场，Alphabet发债计划与美联储潜在加息预期的叠加，构成了当日美债承压的双重驱动。长端收益率受供给压力推升更为显著，带动收益率曲线整体陡化。利率市场目前仍计入约15个基点的9月加息预期，至年底累计加息预期约达33个基点，市场对货币政策路径的不确定性仍高。对于固定收益投资者而言，如何在AI资本开支扩张带来的供给冲击与潜在利率上行风险之间寻求平衡，正成为当前不得不面对的核心命题。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GGLS":0.6,"GOOG":2,"GOOP":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOGL":2,"GGLL":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":588576417349760,"gmtCreate":1784726948687,"gmtModify":1784727826990,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"谷歌还增加开支，傻了吗","listText":"谷歌还增加开支，傻了吗","text":"谷歌还增加开支，傻了吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/588576417349760","repostId":"2653275956","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2653275956","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1784714440,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2653275956?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-22 18:00","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"谷歌重磅财报夜，将上调Capex指引？资深分析师：2026年或冲击2000亿美元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2653275956","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"从业逾40年的科技分析师罗伯特·卡斯特拉诺指出，Alphabet此前2026年1800亿至1900亿美元的Capex指引过于保守，预计本次财报将上调至1900亿至2000亿美元。德银亦大幅上调预测，预计2027年Capex达3250亿美元（此前为2500亿）、2028年达3650亿至3700亿美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet将于当地时间7月22日美股盘后（北京时间23日凌晨）公布第二季度业绩，但市场真正关注的焦点并非单季利润表现，而是管理层是否会进一步上调AI资本开支（Capex）指引。</p>\n<p>拥有40多年科技行业研究经验的The Information Network总裁罗伯特·卡斯特拉诺撰文指出，多项产业链信号显示，<strong>Alphabet此前给出的2026年1800亿至1900亿美元Capex预期可能已经偏保守。</strong>随着AI数据中心建设持续提速、云计算需求保持强劲增长，Alphabet未来数年的AI基础设施投入仍可能维持上行趋势。</p>\n<p>卡斯特拉诺预计，<strong>Alphabet或将在财报中将2026年资本开支指引上调至1900亿至2000亿美元，同时维持2027年开支将接近3000亿美元的相关表述不变。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>也大幅提高了对Alphabet未来资本开支的预测。</strong>据华尔街见闻此前文章，德银预计，Alphabet 2027年Capex将达到约3250亿美元，较此前2500亿美元的预测明显上调；2028年资本开支则可能进一步升至3650亿至3700亿美元。</p>\n<p>若这一趋势兑现，意味着AI基础设施投资周期仍在持续扩张，市场此前关于AI资本开支即将见顶、增长动能放缓的担忧或将面临重新定价。</p>\n<h2>AI军备竞赛升温：五大科技巨头2026年资本开支或突破7700亿美元</h2>\n<p><strong>AI基础设施投资浪潮正在进入更大规模扩张阶段，Alphabet资本开支的走向，其市场意义已远超单季财报本身。</strong></p>\n<p>随着超大规模云厂商持续加码数据中心、算力和能源基础设施建设，资本投入正从过去的渐进式增长转向以千亿美元为单位的长期竞赛。</p>\n<p>据市场数据，Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>五家公司资本开支合计已从截至2025年4月的过去12个月2710亿美元，大幅提升至截至2026年4月的4820亿美元。<strong>按照各家公司现有指引及市场预期，五大巨头2026年全年资本开支预计将达到7450亿至7750亿美元，较前一周期增长约55%至61%。</strong></p>\n<p>这一数字不仅反映出科技巨头对AI商业化前景的押注，也意味着它们正在成为整个半导体产业链需求增长的核心驱动力。</p>\n<h2>五大巨头主导AI基础设施投资周期</h2>\n<p>需要注意的是，超7700亿美元资本开支并不会全部直接流向芯片供应商。其中包括服务器、网络设备、数据中心建设、土地、电力设施以及能源供应体系等多个领域。</p>\n<p>但从产业链传导来看，每一座新增AI数据中心都将带动多个环节的同步扩张。<strong>从高性能计算芯片、HBM存储，到先进封装、晶圆制造、测试设备以及高速互联网络，AI基础设施投资正在形成完整的供应链拉动效应。</strong></p>\n<p>市场关注的核心在于，当前AI产业链的需求并非由单一企业驱动，而是由少数超大规模云厂商共同决定。它们对GPU、定制ASIC、HBM、光网络以及数据中心电力系统的采购节奏，正在成为衡量整个半导体周期景气度的重要指标。</p>\n<p><strong>因此，Alphabet资本开支是否进一步上调，不只是对Gemini模型和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云业务前景的判断，更是对下一阶段AI基础设施需求强度的验证。</strong></p>\n<h2>Meta出租缓冲，谷歌订单兜底——AI资本开支的两条路径</h2>\n<p>近期Meta考虑向外部客户出售部分AI基础设施容量，引发市场对AI投资是否出现过剩的讨论。但从产业逻辑看，这一动作更像是提高资产利用率，而非削减投资。</p>\n<p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>调整后的预测，Meta推动部分AI基础设施容量外部化，主要原因是内部推理需求释放存在时间差，希望通过对外出租提前实现资产回报。这意味着Meta正在对已投入的算力资源进行商业化，而非因为需求不足而被迫消化过剩产能。</p>\n<p>相比之下，Alphabet具备更强的内部消化能力。<strong>谷歌云目前积压合同金额达到4620亿美元，企业客户对AI算力和云服务的需求已经形成较强的订单支撑。这意味着Alphabet新增资本投入能够更直接对应未来收入增长，其资本开支扩张的商业确定性也更高。</strong></p>\n<h2>Alphabet财报成为AI周期重要观察窗口</h2>\n<p><strong>对于市场而言，Alphabet7月22日公布的二季度业绩，关键并不只是盈利和收入表现，而是管理层是否进一步提高AI资本开支预期。</strong></p>\n<p>如果Alphabet上调2026年资本支出指引，将强化市场对AI基础设施投资周期持续性的判断，并为芯片、存储、先进封装以及数据中心产业链提供新的基本面支撑。</p>\n<p>反之，如果资本开支低于预期，市场可能重新评估AI投资回报周期，并对相关科技股估值形成短期压力。</p>\n<p>随着微软、Meta和亚马逊随后公布业绩，华尔街将进一步观察这场AI基础设施竞赛是否仍在加速，以及数千亿美元资本投入能否持续转化为收入增长。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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.h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌重磅财报夜，将上调Capex指引？资深分析师：2026年或冲击2000亿美元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-22 18:00</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>母公司Alphabet将于当地时间7月22日美股盘后（北京时间23日凌晨）公布第二季度业绩，但市场真正关注的焦点并非单季利润表现，而是管理层是否会进一步上调AI资本开支（Capex）指引。</p>\n<p>拥有40多年科技行业研究经验的The Information Network总裁罗伯特·卡斯特拉诺撰文指出，多项产业链信号显示，<strong>Alphabet此前给出的2026年1800亿至1900亿美元Capex预期可能已经偏保守。</strong>随着AI数据中心建设持续提速、云计算需求保持强劲增长，Alphabet未来数年的AI基础设施投入仍可能维持上行趋势。</p>\n<p>卡斯特拉诺预计，<strong>Alphabet或将在财报中将2026年资本开支指引上调至1900亿至2000亿美元，同时维持2027年开支将接近3000亿美元的相关表述不变。</strong></p>\n<p>与此同时，<strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DB\">德意志银行</a>也大幅提高了对Alphabet未来资本开支的预测。</strong>据华尔街见闻此前文章，德银预计，Alphabet 2027年Capex将达到约3250亿美元，较此前2500亿美元的预测明显上调；2028年资本开支则可能进一步升至3650亿至3700亿美元。</p>\n<p>若这一趋势兑现，意味着AI基础设施投资周期仍在持续扩张，市场此前关于AI资本开支即将见顶、增长动能放缓的担忧或将面临重新定价。</p>\n<h2>AI军备竞赛升温：五大科技巨头2026年资本开支或突破7700亿美元</h2>\n<p><strong>AI基础设施投资浪潮正在进入更大规模扩张阶段，Alphabet资本开支的走向，其市场意义已远超单季财报本身。</strong></p>\n<p>随着超大规模云厂商持续加码数据中心、算力和能源基础设施建设，资本投入正从过去的渐进式增长转向以千亿美元为单位的长期竞赛。</p>\n<p>据市场数据，Alphabet、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>五家公司资本开支合计已从截至2025年4月的过去12个月2710亿美元，大幅提升至截至2026年4月的4820亿美元。<strong>按照各家公司现有指引及市场预期，五大巨头2026年全年资本开支预计将达到7450亿至7750亿美元，较前一周期增长约55%至61%。</strong></p>\n<p>这一数字不仅反映出科技巨头对AI商业化前景的押注，也意味着它们正在成为整个半导体产业链需求增长的核心驱动力。</p>\n<h2>五大巨头主导AI基础设施投资周期</h2>\n<p>需要注意的是，超7700亿美元资本开支并不会全部直接流向芯片供应商。其中包括服务器、网络设备、数据中心建设、土地、电力设施以及能源供应体系等多个领域。</p>\n<p>但从产业链传导来看，每一座新增AI数据中心都将带动多个环节的同步扩张。<strong>从高性能计算芯片、HBM存储，到先进封装、晶圆制造、测试设备以及高速互联网络，AI基础设施投资正在形成完整的供应链拉动效应。</strong></p>\n<p>市场关注的核心在于，当前AI产业链的需求并非由单一企业驱动，而是由少数超大规模云厂商共同决定。它们对GPU、定制ASIC、HBM、光网络以及数据中心电力系统的采购节奏，正在成为衡量整个半导体周期景气度的重要指标。</p>\n<p><strong>因此，Alphabet资本开支是否进一步上调，不只是对Gemini模型和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>云业务前景的判断，更是对下一阶段AI基础设施需求强度的验证。</strong></p>\n<h2>Meta出租缓冲，谷歌订单兜底——AI资本开支的两条路径</h2>\n<p>近期Meta考虑向外部客户出售部分AI基础设施容量，引发市场对AI投资是否出现过剩的讨论。但从产业逻辑看，这一动作更像是提高资产利用率，而非削减投资。</p>\n<p>据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>调整后的预测，Meta推动部分AI基础设施容量外部化，主要原因是内部推理需求释放存在时间差，希望通过对外出租提前实现资产回报。这意味着Meta正在对已投入的算力资源进行商业化，而非因为需求不足而被迫消化过剩产能。</p>\n<p>相比之下，Alphabet具备更强的内部消化能力。<strong>谷歌云目前积压合同金额达到4620亿美元，企业客户对AI算力和云服务的需求已经形成较强的订单支撑。这意味着Alphabet新增资本投入能够更直接对应未来收入增长，其资本开支扩张的商业确定性也更高。</strong></p>\n<h2>Alphabet财报成为AI周期重要观察窗口</h2>\n<p><strong>对于市场而言，Alphabet7月22日公布的二季度业绩，关键并不只是盈利和收入表现，而是管理层是否进一步提高AI资本开支预期。</strong></p>\n<p>如果Alphabet上调2026年资本支出指引，将强化市场对AI基础设施投资周期持续性的判断，并为芯片、存储、先进封装以及数据中心产业链提供新的基本面支撑。</p>\n<p>反之，如果资本开支低于预期，市场可能重新评估AI投资回报周期，并对相关科技股估值形成短期压力。</p>\n<p>随着微软、Meta和亚马逊随后公布业绩，华尔街将进一步观察这场AI基础设施竞赛是否仍在加速，以及数千亿美元资本投入能否持续转化为收入增长。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2ed03d3f06ef6d586c673a6d3f12935e","relate_stocks":{"LU2168564495.EUR":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND \"AI\" (EUR) ACC","LU0312595415.SGD":"Schroder ISF Global Climate Change Equity A Acc SGD","BK4602":"量子计算概念","LU2168564222.USD":"AZ ALLOCATION - TREND 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ACC","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","LU0444971666.USD":"天利全球科技基金","LU1506573853.SGD":"MANULIFE GF GLOBAL EQUITY \"AA\" (SGD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3777680","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2653275956","content_text":"谷歌母公司Alphabet将于当地时间7月22日美股盘后（北京时间23日凌晨）公布第二季度业绩，但市场真正关注的焦点并非单季利润表现，而是管理层是否会进一步上调AI资本开支（Capex）指引。\n拥有40多年科技行业研究经验的The Information Network总裁罗伯特·卡斯特拉诺撰文指出，多项产业链信号显示，Alphabet此前给出的2026年1800亿至1900亿美元Capex预期可能已经偏保守。随着AI数据中心建设持续提速、云计算需求保持强劲增长，Alphabet未来数年的AI基础设施投入仍可能维持上行趋势。\n卡斯特拉诺预计，Alphabet或将在财报中将2026年资本开支指引上调至1900亿至2000亿美元，同时维持2027年开支将接近3000亿美元的相关表述不变。\n与此同时，德意志银行也大幅提高了对Alphabet未来资本开支的预测。据华尔街见闻此前文章，德银预计，Alphabet 2027年Capex将达到约3250亿美元，较此前2500亿美元的预测明显上调；2028年资本开支则可能进一步升至3650亿至3700亿美元。\n若这一趋势兑现，意味着AI基础设施投资周期仍在持续扩张，市场此前关于AI资本开支即将见顶、增长动能放缓的担忧或将面临重新定价。\nAI军备竞赛升温：五大科技巨头2026年资本开支或突破7700亿美元\nAI基础设施投资浪潮正在进入更大规模扩张阶段，Alphabet资本开支的走向，其市场意义已远超单季财报本身。\n随着超大规模云厂商持续加码数据中心、算力和能源基础设施建设，资本投入正从过去的渐进式增长转向以千亿美元为单位的长期竞赛。\n据市场数据，Alphabet、亚马逊、微软、Meta和甲骨文五家公司资本开支合计已从截至2025年4月的过去12个月2710亿美元，大幅提升至截至2026年4月的4820亿美元。按照各家公司现有指引及市场预期，五大巨头2026年全年资本开支预计将达到7450亿至7750亿美元，较前一周期增长约55%至61%。\n这一数字不仅反映出科技巨头对AI商业化前景的押注，也意味着它们正在成为整个半导体产业链需求增长的核心驱动力。\n五大巨头主导AI基础设施投资周期\n需要注意的是，超7700亿美元资本开支并不会全部直接流向芯片供应商。其中包括服务器、网络设备、数据中心建设、土地、电力设施以及能源供应体系等多个领域。\n但从产业链传导来看，每一座新增AI数据中心都将带动多个环节的同步扩张。从高性能计算芯片、HBM存储，到先进封装、晶圆制造、测试设备以及高速互联网络，AI基础设施投资正在形成完整的供应链拉动效应。\n市场关注的核心在于，当前AI产业链的需求并非由单一企业驱动，而是由少数超大规模云厂商共同决定。它们对GPU、定制ASIC、HBM、光网络以及数据中心电力系统的采购节奏，正在成为衡量整个半导体周期景气度的重要指标。\n因此，Alphabet资本开支是否进一步上调，不只是对Gemini模型和谷歌云业务前景的判断，更是对下一阶段AI基础设施需求强度的验证。\nMeta出租缓冲，谷歌订单兜底——AI资本开支的两条路径\n近期Meta考虑向外部客户出售部分AI基础设施容量，引发市场对AI投资是否出现过剩的讨论。但从产业逻辑看，这一动作更像是提高资产利用率，而非削减投资。\n据富国银行调整后的预测，Meta推动部分AI基础设施容量外部化，主要原因是内部推理需求释放存在时间差，希望通过对外出租提前实现资产回报。这意味着Meta正在对已投入的算力资源进行商业化，而非因为需求不足而被迫消化过剩产能。\n相比之下，Alphabet具备更强的内部消化能力。谷歌云目前积压合同金额达到4620亿美元，企业客户对AI算力和云服务的需求已经形成较强的订单支撑。这意味着Alphabet新增资本投入能够更直接对应未来收入增长，其资本开支扩张的商业确定性也更高。\nAlphabet财报成为AI周期重要观察窗口\n对于市场而言，Alphabet7月22日公布的二季度业绩，关键并不只是盈利和收入表现，而是管理层是否进一步提高AI资本开支预期。\n如果Alphabet上调2026年资本支出指引，将强化市场对AI基础设施投资周期持续性的判断，并为芯片、存储、先进封装以及数据中心产业链提供新的基本面支撑。\n反之，如果资本开支低于预期，市场可能重新评估AI投资回报周期，并对相关科技股估值形成短期压力。\n随着微软、Meta和亚马逊随后公布业绩，华尔街将进一步观察这场AI基础设施竞赛是否仍在加速，以及数千亿美元资本投入能否持续转化为收入增长。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OGIG":0.6,"XLC":0.6,"GXPC":0.6,"GOOG":2,"ILDR":0.6,"GOOGL":1.96,"GOOP":0.6,"CMAG":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"LTL":0.6,"SNPE":0.6,"CQTM":0.6,"TRUC":0.6,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOY":0.6,"METV":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"VOX":0.6,"GOOW":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"FCOM":0.6,"EFIV":0.6,"SKYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":484,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":583263800828232,"gmtCreate":1783429817867,"gmtModify":1783429819639,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"疯了","listText":"疯了","text":"疯了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/583263800828232","repostId":"2649049987","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2649049987","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1783425841,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2649049987?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-07 20:04","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"最长四十年期！亚马逊拟发行至少250亿美元债券，加码AI基础设施投资","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2649049987","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"亚马逊拟发行至少250亿美元债券，期限跨度从3年延伸至40年。资金将用于资本开支、并购及偿债，反映科技巨头持续加码AI投入，市场对其债券需求依然强劲。","content":"<html><head></head><body><div>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>正筹备一笔规模至少250亿美元的美元债券，成为超大规模云计算企业近期密集融资浪潮中的最新一例，凸显科技巨头在人工智能基础设施上的投入力度持续升温。</span></p>\n</div>\n<p>周二，彭博社援引知情人士透露，本次发行规模可能随投资者需求进一步扩大，最终方案尚未确定。<strong>债券将分为多达八个期限档次，期限跨度从3年延伸至40年</strong>，承销行为巴克莱、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>。</p>\n<p>此次融资所得将用于一般公司用途，包括偿还债务、并购及资本支出。目前投资者对同类超大规模企业发债需求旺盛，近期多笔发行均获数倍超额认购。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>八档期限覆盖短中长期，最长期限溢价约145基点</h2>\n</div>\n<p>据知情人士透露，<strong>本次债券分为最多八个期限，覆盖3年至40年，发行方要求对方不具名，因相关细节尚未公开。</strong>其中最长期限为2066年到期债券，初始价格指引为较美国国债利率溢价约145基点。</p>\n<p>巴克莱、高盛、摩根大通及摩根士丹利担任本次债券发行的承销管理行。摩根大通代表拒绝置评，亚马逊及其他承销行代表未立即回应置评请求。</p>\n<p>募集资金将用于一般公司用途，可能涵盖偿还债务、企业收购及资本支出等方向。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>超大规模云计算企业密集发债，AI基础设施投资驱动融资需求</h2>\n</div>\n<p>本次发债是超大规模云计算企业近期一系列大规模债券发行的最新案例。上述企业正将数千亿美元投入人工智能基础设施建设，由此催生庞大的融资需求。</p>\n<p>据彭博报道，市场投资者迄今表现出强劲买盘意愿，近期多笔同类发行均获得数倍于发行规模的认购订单，显示固定收益市场对该类别信用资产需求持续旺盛。</p>\n<p>亚马逊此次融资规模之大，进一步表明超大规模云计算企业在AI军备竞赛中的资本支出预期仍在上修，债券市场正持续承接这一融资浪潮。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" 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left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n最长四十年期！亚马逊拟发行至少250亿美元债券，加码AI基础设施投资\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-07 20:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><div>\n<p><span><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>正筹备一笔规模至少250亿美元的美元债券，成为超大规模云计算企业近期密集融资浪潮中的最新一例，凸显科技巨头在人工智能基础设施上的投入力度持续升温。</span></p>\n</div>\n<p>周二，彭博社援引知情人士透露，本次发行规模可能随投资者需求进一步扩大，最终方案尚未确定。<strong>债券将分为多达八个期限档次，期限跨度从3年延伸至40年</strong>，承销行为巴克莱、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>。</p>\n<p>此次融资所得将用于一般公司用途，包括偿还债务、并购及资本支出。目前投资者对同类超大规模企业发债需求旺盛，近期多笔发行均获数倍超额认购。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>八档期限覆盖短中长期，最长期限溢价约145基点</h2>\n</div>\n<p>据知情人士透露，<strong>本次债券分为最多八个期限，覆盖3年至40年，发行方要求对方不具名，因相关细节尚未公开。</strong>其中最长期限为2066年到期债券，初始价格指引为较美国国债利率溢价约145基点。</p>\n<p>巴克莱、高盛、摩根大通及摩根士丹利担任本次债券发行的承销管理行。摩根大通代表拒绝置评，亚马逊及其他承销行代表未立即回应置评请求。</p>\n<p>募集资金将用于一般公司用途，可能涵盖偿还债务、企业收购及资本支出等方向。</p>\n<div>\n<h2>超大规模云计算企业密集发债，AI基础设施投资驱动融资需求</h2>\n</div>\n<p>本次发债是超大规模云计算企业近期一系列大规模债券发行的最新案例。上述企业正将数千亿美元投入人工智能基础设施建设，由此催生庞大的融资需求。</p>\n<p>据彭博报道，市场投资者迄今表现出强劲买盘意愿，近期多笔同类发行均获得数倍于发行规模的认购订单，显示固定收益市场对该类别信用资产需求持续旺盛。</p>\n<p>亚马逊此次融资规模之大，进一步表明超大规模云计算企业在AI军备竞赛中的资本支出预期仍在上修，债券市场正持续承接这一融资浪潮。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f29fffd34931564d17aabf713055878d","relate_stocks":{"IE00BMPRXR70.SGD":"Neuberger Berman 5G Connectivity A Acc SGD-H","SG9999014898.SGD":"United Global Quality Growth Fund Dis SGD","LU2954938101.SGD":"T 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Acc","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3776394","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2649049987","content_text":"亚马逊正筹备一笔规模至少250亿美元的美元债券，成为超大规模云计算企业近期密集融资浪潮中的最新一例，凸显科技巨头在人工智能基础设施上的投入力度持续升温。\n\n周二，彭博社援引知情人士透露，本次发行规模可能随投资者需求进一步扩大，最终方案尚未确定。债券将分为多达八个期限档次，期限跨度从3年延伸至40年，承销行为巴克莱、高盛、摩根大通及摩根士丹利。\n此次融资所得将用于一般公司用途，包括偿还债务、并购及资本支出。目前投资者对同类超大规模企业发债需求旺盛，近期多笔发行均获数倍超额认购。\n\n八档期限覆盖短中长期，最长期限溢价约145基点\n\n据知情人士透露，本次债券分为最多八个期限，覆盖3年至40年，发行方要求对方不具名，因相关细节尚未公开。其中最长期限为2066年到期债券，初始价格指引为较美国国债利率溢价约145基点。\n巴克莱、高盛、摩根大通及摩根士丹利担任本次债券发行的承销管理行。摩根大通代表拒绝置评，亚马逊及其他承销行代表未立即回应置评请求。\n募集资金将用于一般公司用途，可能涵盖偿还债务、企业收购及资本支出等方向。\n\n超大规模云计算企业密集发债，AI基础设施投资驱动融资需求\n\n本次发债是超大规模云计算企业近期一系列大规模债券发行的最新案例。上述企业正将数千亿美元投入人工智能基础设施建设，由此催生庞大的融资需求。\n据彭博报道，市场投资者迄今表现出强劲买盘意愿，近期多笔同类发行均获得数倍于发行规模的认购订单，显示固定收益市场对该类别信用资产需求持续旺盛。\n亚马逊此次融资规模之大，进一步表明超大规模云计算企业在AI军备竞赛中的资本支出预期仍在上修，债券市场正持续承接这一融资浪潮。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZD":0.6,"OGIG":0.6,"AMZW":0.6,"WANT":0.6,"ONLN":0.6,"AMZY":0.6,"AMZU":0.6,"AMZP":0.6,"ILDR":0.6,"AMZZ":0.6,"AMZN":1.97,"CLIX":0.6,"RTH":0.6,"AZYY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":582855410991672,"gmtCreate":1783330198858,"gmtModify":1783330201303,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"18良率还不行就推14","listText":"18良率还不行就推14","text":"18良率还不行就推14","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/582855410991672","repostId":"1181309166","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1181309166","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1783329894,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1181309166?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-07-06 17:24","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"盘前异动 | 英特尔盘前涨超3%，评估14A2双面供电架构，1.4nm级制程推进背面供电优化","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181309166","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英特尔正在内部评估一种用于14A2制程的双面供电架构，通过晶圆正面和背面金属层共同进行电力传输，以改善先进制程下的供电与布线问题。此前，公司计划在基础14A节点采用自研背面供电网络PowerDirect。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>盘前涨超3%。英特尔正在评估一套面向1.4nm级制程的双面供电方案，试图在先进制程竞争中缩小与其他晶圆代工厂的差距。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照原有规划，英特尔将在基础14A节点采用自研背面供电网络PowerDirect，也就是通过晶圆背面为晶体管供电，从而释放正面布线空间，并提升芯片功耗与信号传输效率。目前，公司正在进一步评估14A2节点的混合式方案，即同时利用晶圆正面和背面金属层进行电力路径设计。该方案并不是完全替代背面供电，而是在背面供电基础上，引入正背面协同布线，以应对更先进节点下的制造限制。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推动这一调整的原因主要来自光刻和金属层间距收缩压力。随着最小金属层间距向约21纳米推进，制造过程中随机缺陷风险上升，单一供电和布线路径面临更高工艺难度。双面供电架构的评估，反映出英特尔在14A2节点上对良率、功耗和布线密度进行进一步优化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/147c17d0f013d8091925ed735df23b84\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"582\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>盘前异动 | 英特尔盘前涨超3%，评估14A2双面供电架构，1.4nm级制程推进背面供电优化</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 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class=\"title\">\n盘前异动 | 英特尔盘前涨超3%，评估14A2双面供电架构，1.4nm级制程推进背面供电优化\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-07-06 17:24</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">7月6日， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>盘前涨超3%。英特尔正在评估一套面向1.4nm级制程的双面供电方案，试图在先进制程竞争中缩小与其他晶圆代工厂的差距。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">按照原有规划，英特尔将在基础14A节点采用自研背面供电网络PowerDirect，也就是通过晶圆背面为晶体管供电，从而释放正面布线空间，并提升芯片功耗与信号传输效率。目前，公司正在进一步评估14A2节点的混合式方案，即同时利用晶圆正面和背面金属层进行电力路径设计。该方案并不是完全替代背面供电，而是在背面供电基础上，引入正背面协同布线，以应对更先进节点下的制造限制。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">推动这一调整的原因主要来自光刻和金属层间距收缩压力。随着最小金属层间距向约21纳米推进，制造过程中随机缺陷风险上升，单一供电和布线路径面临更高工艺难度。双面供电架构的评估，反映出英特尔在14A2节点上对良率、功耗和布线密度进行进一步优化。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/147c17d0f013d8091925ed735df23b84\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"582\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e58fcd4a67c330616cf11ed02c0ac7c5","relate_stocks":{"INTW":"2倍做多INTC ETF-GraniteShares","LINT":"Direxion Daily INTC Bull 2X ETF","INTC":"英特尔"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181309166","content_text":"7月6日， 英特尔盘前涨超3%。英特尔正在评估一套面向1.4nm级制程的双面供电方案，试图在先进制程竞争中缩小与其他晶圆代工厂的差距。按照原有规划，英特尔将在基础14A节点采用自研背面供电网络PowerDirect，也就是通过晶圆背面为晶体管供电，从而释放正面布线空间，并提升芯片功耗与信号传输效率。目前，公司正在进一步评估14A2节点的混合式方案，即同时利用晶圆正面和背面金属层进行电力路径设计。该方案并不是完全替代背面供电，而是在背面供电基础上，引入正背面协同布线，以应对更先进节点下的制造限制。推动这一调整的原因主要来自光刻和金属层间距收缩压力。随着最小金属层间距向约21纳米推进，制造过程中随机缺陷风险上升，单一供电和布线路径面临更高工艺难度。双面供电架构的评估，反映出英特尔在14A2节点上对良率、功耗和布线密度进行进一步优化。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LINT":0.6,"INTW":0.6,"INTC":2.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":579985344684912,"gmtCreate":1782628076373,"gmtModify":1782629696740,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"疯狂投入买硬件时代结束了，优化算法比算力更重要","listText":"疯狂投入买硬件时代结束了，优化算法比算力更重要","text":"疯狂投入买硬件时代结束了，优化算法比算力更重要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/579985344684912","repostId":"2646311199","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2646311199","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1782620940,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2646311199?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-06-28 12:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2646311199","media":"环球市场播报","summary":"英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，$谷歌(GOOG)$在今年3月前后告知$Meta(META)$，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。$谷歌(GOOGL)$与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">谷歌</a>在今年3月前后告知<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/META\">Meta</a>，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOGL\">谷歌</a>与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谷歌限制了Meta的Gemini使用量，因为人工智能需求激增导致产能紧张\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-06-28 12:29 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-28/doc-iniexucw0700757.shtml><strong>环球市场播报</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>英国媒体援引三位知情人士消息称，谷歌在今年3月前后告知Meta，无法足额供应其所需的Gemini模型算力额度。此举打乱并推迟了Meta多项内部人工智能项目的推进节奏。受该算力限制，叠加公司整体压缩人工智能成本的战略，Meta已要求员工节约调用AI令牌，提升使用效率。谷歌与Meta均拒绝对该报道置评。</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2026-06-28/doc-iniexucw0700757.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8024f8b7ed0a3612f2c54c4d945b4ad0","relate_stocks":{"LU2023250330.USD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG\" (USD) INC","LU0476273544.USD":"CT (LUX) I GLOBAL TECHNOLOGY \"BU\" (USD) ACC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU1917777945.USD":"安联专题基金Cl AT Acc","BK4538":"云计算","LU1244550221.USD":"FRANKLIN GLOBAL MULTI-ASSET  INCOME \"A\" (USDHEDGED) INC (M)","LU0149725797.USD":"汇丰美国股市经济规模基金","LU2242650005.HKD":"FIDELITY FUNDS GLOBAL MULTI 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04:31","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"英伟达Q1营收超预期增85%，指引再新高仍不够亮眼，新增回购800亿且大幅上调股息","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133348929","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"英伟达2027财年Q1业绩：营收816亿美元，同比增长85%；调整后EPS1.87美元，同比增长140%。数据中心收入创历史新高，达752亿美元，比上年同期增长92%。英伟达在其展望中未计入来自中国的数据中心计算收入。GAAP 和非 GAAP 毛利率预计分别为 74.9% 和 75.0%，上下浮动 50 个基点。GAAP 和非 GAAP 运营费用预计分别为约 85 亿美元和 83 亿美元。英伟达宣布追加800亿美元的股票回购授权，并将季度现金股息从每股0.01美元提高至每股0.25美元。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Q1英伟达营收创逾一年最高同比增速；数据中心业务营收同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，其中计算收入低于预期；EPS同比翻一倍多，毛利率环比略降至75%、略高于预期。Q2营收指引高于预期均值但低于最乐观预期，且不含中国数据中心计算收入；季度股息大幅提高24倍至0.25美元。英伟达称，向分为数据中心和边缘计算两大平台的新版财报框架过渡。盘后股价转跌，一度跌超3%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球AI产业链的“总龙头”英伟达毫无悬念地交出了一份比华尔街平均预期更强劲的收入成绩单，但并没有以往的超预期幅度那么亮眼。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间20日周三，英伟达公布，截至2026年4月26日的公司2027财年第一财季（“一季度”），营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师预期高将近3.1%。核心业务数据中心的营收752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度英伟达盈利同样强劲，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）同比增长140%至1.87美元，较上一季明显加快增长，较分析师预期高将近6.3%。同口径下当季毛利率为75.0%，略低于上一季创一年半来最高水平，但高于分析师预期的74.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银分析师Vivek Arya团队在财报公布前指出，英伟达过去十个季度的实际营收平均超出管理层指引7%至8%，该司此前的营收指引中值为780亿美元，据此推算，按以往规律，一季度营收应在830亿至840亿美元。而本次公布的实际营收比这个预期区间的低端还低将近1.7%，较区间高端低2.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达此次给出的第二财季（“二季度”）营收指引中值910亿美元，再创单季纪录，高于分析师预期均值、但低于最乐观预期960亿美元。该司还特别说明，此指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efe877b12b5a2e06f4327383d5a15e0\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"572\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本回报方面，英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元的股票回购规模，同时将季度股息从每股0.01美元大幅提高至0.25美元。这反映出公司现金流和盈利能力依然充沛，也显示管理层愿意在高位继续通过回购支撑股东回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布后，周三本已收涨1.3%的英伟达股价盘后震荡，先转跌并一度跌超3%。分析认为，其背后核心矛盾在于：财报业绩本身依然强劲，但市场此前对英伟达的预期已极高，投资者更关注的是超预期幅度是否足够大，以及新版财报框架下的业务可比性和增长质量如何重新定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45923881f68a95c69d6d58d324477e27\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><h2 id=\"591bea9f\">Q1营收创一年多最高增速 但市场已经习惯英伟达“更大幅度”超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达一季度营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%，创截至2024年10月末的2025财年第三财季以来最高单季增速，较上一季的增速73%提速，总营收较分析师预期791.9亿美元高出24.3亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从营收的绝对规模看，英伟达仍录得非常强劲的业绩，尤其是在公司收入基数已经极高的情况下，继续实现超预期并不容易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但对英伟达而言，市场的衡量标准已经不同于普通的蓝筹科技股。过去多个季度，英伟达依靠AI GPU、数据中心加速计算需求持续给出远超预期的收入和指引，投资者逐渐形成了“必须显著超预期”的交易习惯。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，这份财报的关键不是“有没有超预期”，而是“超预期是否足以支撑当前估值和此前涨幅”。一季度营收并未明显改写市场对于公司短期增长斜率的判断，这也是股价盘后出现抛压的重要原因之一。</p><h2 id=\"752-ai\">数据中心收入同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，AI主线仍然强劲</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度数据中心业务的营收同比增长92%至752亿美元，较分析师预期734.8亿美元高约2.3%，较上一季所创的该业务收入前纪录高21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/285f02421c92ed798722eb32fb3e5ea9\" tg-width=\"1113\" tg-height=\"562\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据中心业务一季度约占总营收的92%，说明英伟达当前几乎已经成为一家高度由AI数据中心资本开支驱动的公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这组数据释放的正面信号很明确：全球云厂商、企业客户和AI基础设施投资仍在继续，训练和推理需求仍对英伟达高端GPU、网络产品和整套数据中心解决方案形成支撑。只要AI资本开支周期没有明显降温，英伟达的核心收入来源就仍具备较强韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这也带来一个潜在问题：市场对数据中心业务的依赖程度越来越高。当数据中心占比超过九成，投资者对该业务的任何边际变化都会极其敏感。即便752亿美元本身超预期，只要增长速度没有明显高于此前乐观假设，股价也可能出现“利好兑现”式波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，按照以前的财报框架，数据中心业务中的数据中心计算收入同比增长77%，增至创纪录的604亿美元，仍低于分析师预期的将近611亿美元，环比增18%；当季数据中心网络收入同比增199%至148亿美元、也创新高。</p><h2 id=\"eps\">EPS增速重新加快，毛利率高位稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利能力是本季财报的另一大亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达一季度非GAAP调整后EPS为1.87美元，高于市场预期1.76美元，同比增速达到140%。相比上一季度82%的同比增速，本季度利润增速明显重新加快，显示收入增长仍在高效转化为利润增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率方面，非GAAP毛利率为75.0%，高于市场预期的74.5%，同比大幅提升14.2个百分点。这一水平对半导体公司而言极高，反映出英伟达在AI芯片、系统、软件生态和供应链议价中的优势地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从环比看，毛利率较上一季度75.1%略低0.1个百分点。这个变化并不大，也谈不上明显压力，但对于估值已经很高的英伟达来说，市场会非常敏感地观察毛利率是否已经接近阶段性高点。尤其在产品切换、供应链扩张和客户结构变化过程中，投资者会关注后续毛利率能否继续维持在75%左右的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccaddfb392999685d5e426eb8cc442de\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3853664375\">二季度营收指引高于预期 且不含中国数据中心计算收入</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达预计二季度营收为910亿美元、上下浮动2%，即891.8亿美元至928.2亿美元，高于分析师预期均值870亿美元，但还低于最乐观预期960亿美元。二季度非GAAP口径下毛利率预计为75.0%，上下浮动50个基点，即74.5%至75.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">考虑到英伟达在其展望中并未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，二季度的指引无疑稳健。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达称指引不含上述中国市场部分收入有两层含义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面，这体现了公司对中国相关业务的不确定性采取了较为保守的处理方式。在出口管制、产品合规和地缘政治风险持续存在的背景下，英伟达没有把中国数据中心计算收入纳入二季度指引，有助于降低指引兑现风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，这也让二季度910亿美元的指引显得更有分量。也就是说，即便没有计入中国数据中心计算业务，公司仍预计营收显著高于市场预期，说明中国以外地区的数据中心需求足够强劲。如果未来中国相关业务出现边际改善，理论上还可能带来额外上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"800\">800亿美元回购与大幅上调派息，显示现金充裕但难以成为股价主线</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元股票回购，这是一个相当可观的资本回报计划。与此同时，公司将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，增幅达24倍。该笔股息将于2026 年 6 月26日支付。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这说明英伟达管理层对公司现金流和长期盈利能力有信心。对于大型科技股而言，大规模回购通常可以在股价波动时提供一定支撑，也有助于提高每股收益表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，对英伟达这类高成长、高估值股票来说，股息和回购通常不是市场定价的第一变量。投资者真正关心的仍是AI芯片需求、数据中心收入增速、产品迭代节奏、供给能力和利润率趋势。换言之，800亿美元回购是利好，但很难单独抵消市场对“增长惊喜不足”的担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3688b39a444386b3fb25b8058d1bec2\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><h2 id=\"e8760ffd\">新版财报框架带来重新定价过程</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达同时披露，公司正在向新的财报框架过渡，该框架能更准确地反映其当前及未来的增长驱动力切换至新版报告框架。具体而言，这种框架是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达设立两大市场平台——数据中心（Data Center）和边缘计算（Edge Computing）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在数据中心平台内部，将披露两个细分市场的数据：超大规模（Hyperscale）市场，以及 ACIE 市场（涵盖 AI 云、工业应用及企业级应用）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，超大规模市场将包含来自公有云服务商及全球顶尖消费互联网公司的营收。ACIE 市场则旨在展现英伟达在各行各业及全球各地，针对各类专为 AI 用途构建的数据中心及“AI 工厂”所蕴藏的增长机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">边缘计算平台则重点涵盖各类用于支持Agentic AI及实体 AI 的数据处理设备，具体包括个人电脑（PC）、游戏主机、工作站、AI-RAN 基站、机器人设备以及汽车系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上变化本身不一定是负面，但会影响投资者对不同业务线的可比性分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于英伟达而言，市场长期跟踪的核心指标包括数据中心收入、游戏业务、专业可视化、汽车与机器人等板块表现。报告口径调整后，投资者需要重新理解各业务的边界、收入归类方式以及同比/环比趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这类调整有时会增加财报发布初期的交易噪音。尤其是英伟达这类高度被量化资金、期权资金和高频交易关注的公司，盘后交易往往会先对 headline数据作出反应，再根据电话会和报告细节重新定价。新版报告框架可能也是股价盘后震荡的原因之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于长期投资者来说，报告框架调整本身未必改变公司的基本面，但会对短期模型比较产生影响。分析师需要重新梳理不同业务线之间的归类方式、历史口径的可比性，以及新框架下哪些指标更能反映核心增长动能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b722e58af4d50e93522675f281af8\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>英伟达Q1营收超预期增85%，指引再新高仍不够亮眼，新增回购800亿且大幅上调股息</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n英伟达Q1营收超预期增85%，指引再新高仍不够亮眼，新增回购800亿且大幅上调股息\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-21 04:31</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Q1英伟达营收创逾一年最高同比增速；数据中心业务营收同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，其中计算收入低于预期；EPS同比翻一倍多，毛利率环比略降至75%、略高于预期。Q2营收指引高于预期均值但低于最乐观预期，且不含中国数据中心计算收入；季度股息大幅提高24倍至0.25美元。英伟达称，向分为数据中心和边缘计算两大平台的新版财报框架过渡。盘后股价转跌，一度跌超3%。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">全球AI产业链的“总龙头”英伟达毫无悬念地交出了一份比华尔街平均预期更强劲的收入成绩单，但并没有以往的超预期幅度那么亮眼。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间20日周三，英伟达公布，截至2026年4月26日的公司2027财年第一财季（“一季度”），营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师预期高将近3.1%。核心业务数据中心的营收752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度英伟达盈利同样强劲，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）同比增长140%至1.87美元，较上一季明显加快增长，较分析师预期高将近6.3%。同口径下当季毛利率为75.0%，略低于上一季创一年半来最高水平，但高于分析师预期的74.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美银分析师Vivek Arya团队在财报公布前指出，英伟达过去十个季度的实际营收平均超出管理层指引7%至8%，该司此前的营收指引中值为780亿美元，据此推算，按以往规律，一季度营收应在830亿至840亿美元。而本次公布的实际营收比这个预期区间的低端还低将近1.7%，较区间高端低2.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达此次给出的第二财季（“二季度”）营收指引中值910亿美元，再创单季纪录，高于分析师预期均值、但低于最乐观预期960亿美元。该司还特别说明，此指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1efe877b12b5a2e06f4327383d5a15e0\" tg-width=\"1004\" tg-height=\"572\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资本回报方面，英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元的股票回购规模，同时将季度股息从每股0.01美元大幅提高至0.25美元。这反映出公司现金流和盈利能力依然充沛，也显示管理层愿意在高位继续通过回购支撑股东回报。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报公布后，周三本已收涨1.3%的英伟达股价盘后震荡，先转跌并一度跌超3%。分析认为，其背后核心矛盾在于：财报业绩本身依然强劲，但市场此前对英伟达的预期已极高，投资者更关注的是超预期幅度是否足够大，以及新版财报框架下的业务可比性和增长质量如何重新定价。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45923881f68a95c69d6d58d324477e27\" tg-width=\"980\" tg-height=\"427\"/></p><h2 id=\"591bea9f\">Q1营收创一年多最高增速 但市场已经习惯英伟达“更大幅度”超预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达一季度营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%，创截至2024年10月末的2025财年第三财季以来最高单季增速，较上一季的增速73%提速，总营收较分析师预期791.9亿美元高出24.3亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从营收的绝对规模看，英伟达仍录得非常强劲的业绩，尤其是在公司收入基数已经极高的情况下，继续实现超预期并不容易。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但对英伟达而言，市场的衡量标准已经不同于普通的蓝筹科技股。过去多个季度，英伟达依靠AI GPU、数据中心加速计算需求持续给出远超预期的收入和指引，投资者逐渐形成了“必须显著超预期”的交易习惯。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">因此，这份财报的关键不是“有没有超预期”，而是“超预期是否足以支撑当前估值和此前涨幅”。一季度营收并未明显改写市场对于公司短期增长斜率的判断，这也是股价盘后出现抛压的重要原因之一。</p><h2 id=\"752-ai\">数据中心收入同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，AI主线仍然强劲</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度数据中心业务的营收同比增长92%至752亿美元，较分析师预期734.8亿美元高约2.3%，较上一季所创的该业务收入前纪录高21%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/285f02421c92ed798722eb32fb3e5ea9\" tg-width=\"1113\" tg-height=\"562\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">数据中心业务一季度约占总营收的92%，说明英伟达当前几乎已经成为一家高度由AI数据中心资本开支驱动的公司。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这组数据释放的正面信号很明确：全球云厂商、企业客户和AI基础设施投资仍在继续，训练和推理需求仍对英伟达高端GPU、网络产品和整套数据中心解决方案形成支撑。只要AI资本开支周期没有明显降温，英伟达的核心收入来源就仍具备较强韧性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但这也带来一个潜在问题：市场对数据中心业务的依赖程度越来越高。当数据中心占比超过九成，投资者对该业务的任何边际变化都会极其敏感。即便752亿美元本身超预期，只要增长速度没有明显高于此前乐观假设，股价也可能出现“利好兑现”式波动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，按照以前的财报框架，数据中心业务中的数据中心计算收入同比增长77%，增至创纪录的604亿美元，仍低于分析师预期的将近611亿美元，环比增18%；当季数据中心网络收入同比增199%至148亿美元、也创新高。</p><h2 id=\"eps\">EPS增速重新加快，毛利率高位稳定</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利能力是本季财报的另一大亮点。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达一季度非GAAP调整后EPS为1.87美元，高于市场预期1.76美元，同比增速达到140%。相比上一季度82%的同比增速，本季度利润增速明显重新加快，显示收入增长仍在高效转化为利润增长。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">毛利率方面，非GAAP毛利率为75.0%，高于市场预期的74.5%，同比大幅提升14.2个百分点。这一水平对半导体公司而言极高，反映出英伟达在AI芯片、系统、软件生态和供应链议价中的优势地位。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">但从环比看，毛利率较上一季度75.1%略低0.1个百分点。这个变化并不大，也谈不上明显压力，但对于估值已经很高的英伟达来说，市场会非常敏感地观察毛利率是否已经接近阶段性高点。尤其在产品切换、供应链扩张和客户结构变化过程中，投资者会关注后续毛利率能否继续维持在75%左右的高位。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ccaddfb392999685d5e426eb8cc442de\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3853664375\">二季度营收指引高于预期 且不含中国数据中心计算收入</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达预计二季度营收为910亿美元、上下浮动2%，即891.8亿美元至928.2亿美元，高于分析师预期均值870亿美元，但还低于最乐观预期960亿美元。二季度非GAAP口径下毛利率预计为75.0%，上下浮动50个基点，即74.5%至75.5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">考虑到英伟达在其展望中并未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，二季度的指引无疑稳健。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达称指引不含上述中国市场部分收入有两层含义。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一方面，这体现了公司对中国相关业务的不确定性采取了较为保守的处理方式。在出口管制、产品合规和地缘政治风险持续存在的背景下，英伟达没有把中国数据中心计算收入纳入二季度指引，有助于降低指引兑现风险。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">另一方面，这也让二季度910亿美元的指引显得更有分量。也就是说，即便没有计入中国数据中心计算业务，公司仍预计营收显著高于市场预期，说明中国以外地区的数据中心需求足够强劲。如果未来中国相关业务出现边际改善，理论上还可能带来额外上行空间。</p><h2 id=\"800\">800亿美元回购与大幅上调派息，显示现金充裕但难以成为股价主线</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元股票回购，这是一个相当可观的资本回报计划。与此同时，公司将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，增幅达24倍。该笔股息将于2026 年 6 月26日支付。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这说明英伟达管理层对公司现金流和长期盈利能力有信心。对于大型科技股而言，大规模回购通常可以在股价波动时提供一定支撑，也有助于提高每股收益表现。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">不过，对英伟达这类高成长、高估值股票来说，股息和回购通常不是市场定价的第一变量。投资者真正关心的仍是AI芯片需求、数据中心收入增速、产品迭代节奏、供给能力和利润率趋势。换言之，800亿美元回购是利好，但很难单独抵消市场对“增长惊喜不足”的担忧。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d3688b39a444386b3fb25b8058d1bec2\" tg-width=\"1104\" tg-height=\"560\"/></p><h2 id=\"e8760ffd\">新版财报框架带来重新定价过程</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达同时披露，公司正在向新的财报框架过渡，该框架能更准确地反映其当前及未来的增长驱动力切换至新版报告框架。具体而言，这种框架是：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">英伟达设立两大市场平台——数据中心（Data Center）和边缘计算（Edge Computing）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在数据中心平台内部，将披露两个细分市场的数据：超大规模（Hyperscale）市场，以及 ACIE 市场（涵盖 AI 云、工业应用及企业级应用）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">其中，超大规模市场将包含来自公有云服务商及全球顶尖消费互联网公司的营收。ACIE 市场则旨在展现英伟达在各行各业及全球各地，针对各类专为 AI 用途构建的数据中心及“AI 工厂”所蕴藏的增长机遇。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">边缘计算平台则重点涵盖各类用于支持Agentic AI及实体 AI 的数据处理设备，具体包括个人电脑（PC）、游戏主机、工作站、AI-RAN 基站、机器人设备以及汽车系统。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上变化本身不一定是负面，但会影响投资者对不同业务线的可比性分析。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于英伟达而言，市场长期跟踪的核心指标包括数据中心收入、游戏业务、专业可视化、汽车与机器人等板块表现。报告口径调整后，投资者需要重新理解各业务的边界、收入归类方式以及同比/环比趋势。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">这类调整有时会增加财报发布初期的交易噪音。尤其是英伟达这类高度被量化资金、期权资金和高频交易关注的公司，盘后交易往往会先对 headline数据作出反应，再根据电话会和报告细节重新定价。新版报告框架可能也是股价盘后震荡的原因之一。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于长期投资者来说，报告框架调整本身未必改变公司的基本面，但会对短期模型比较产生影响。分析师需要重新梳理不同业务线之间的归类方式、历史口径的可比性，以及新框架下哪些指标更能反映核心增长动能。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893b722e58af4d50e93522675f281af8\" tg-width=\"1118\" tg-height=\"565\"/></p><p><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7308276753c5ff6ceaac8e2cceebffd3","relate_stocks":{"NVDD":"1倍做空NVDA ETF-Direxion","ANV":"GraniteShares Autocallable NVDA ETF","NVDG":"2倍做多NVDA ETF- Leverage Shares","NVDL":"2倍做多NVDA ETF-GraniteShares","NVDQ":"2倍做空NVDA 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ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133348929","content_text":"Q1英伟达营收创逾一年最高同比增速；数据中心业务营收同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，其中计算收入低于预期；EPS同比翻一倍多，毛利率环比略降至75%、略高于预期。Q2营收指引高于预期均值但低于最乐观预期，且不含中国数据中心计算收入；季度股息大幅提高24倍至0.25美元。英伟达称，向分为数据中心和边缘计算两大平台的新版财报框架过渡。盘后股价转跌，一度跌超3%。全球AI产业链的“总龙头”英伟达毫无悬念地交出了一份比华尔街平均预期更强劲的收入成绩单，但并没有以往的超预期幅度那么亮眼。美东时间20日周三，英伟达公布，截至2026年4月26日的公司2027财年第一财季（“一季度”），营收同比增长85%至816.2亿美元，较分析师预期高将近3.1%。核心业务数据中心的营收752亿美元，贡献公司九成以上营收，和总营收均继续刷新单季最高纪录，显示AI算力需求仍是英伟达增长的绝对主线。一季度英伟达盈利同样强劲，非GAAP口径下调整后每股收益（EPS）同比增长140%至1.87美元，较上一季明显加快增长，较分析师预期高将近6.3%。同口径下当季毛利率为75.0%，略低于上一季创一年半来最高水平，但高于分析师预期的74.5%。美银分析师Vivek Arya团队在财报公布前指出，英伟达过去十个季度的实际营收平均超出管理层指引7%至8%，该司此前的营收指引中值为780亿美元，据此推算，按以往规律，一季度营收应在830亿至840亿美元。而本次公布的实际营收比这个预期区间的低端还低将近1.7%，较区间高端低2.8%。英伟达此次给出的第二财季（“二季度”）营收指引中值910亿美元，再创单季纪录，高于分析师预期均值、但低于最乐观预期960亿美元。该司还特别说明，此指引未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，这意味着当前指引主要依靠中国以外市场需求支撑，也为未来潜在增量留下空间。资本回报方面，英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元的股票回购规模，同时将季度股息从每股0.01美元大幅提高至0.25美元。这反映出公司现金流和盈利能力依然充沛，也显示管理层愿意在高位继续通过回购支撑股东回报。财报公布后，周三本已收涨1.3%的英伟达股价盘后震荡，先转跌并一度跌超3%。分析认为，其背后核心矛盾在于：财报业绩本身依然强劲，但市场此前对英伟达的预期已极高，投资者更关注的是超预期幅度是否足够大，以及新版财报框架下的业务可比性和增长质量如何重新定价。Q1营收创一年多最高增速 但市场已经习惯英伟达“更大幅度”超预期英伟达一季度营收816.2亿美元，同比增长85%，创截至2024年10月末的2025财年第三财季以来最高单季增速，较上一季的增速73%提速，总营收较分析师预期791.9亿美元高出24.3亿美元。从营收的绝对规模看，英伟达仍录得非常强劲的业绩，尤其是在公司收入基数已经极高的情况下，继续实现超预期并不容易。但对英伟达而言，市场的衡量标准已经不同于普通的蓝筹科技股。过去多个季度，英伟达依靠AI GPU、数据中心加速计算需求持续给出远超预期的收入和指引，投资者逐渐形成了“必须显著超预期”的交易习惯。因此，这份财报的关键不是“有没有超预期”，而是“超预期是否足以支撑当前估值和此前涨幅”。一季度营收并未明显改写市场对于公司短期增长斜率的判断，这也是股价盘后出现抛压的重要原因之一。数据中心收入同比增92%、环比前纪录增21%，AI主线仍然强劲一季度数据中心业务的营收同比增长92%至752亿美元，较分析师预期734.8亿美元高约2.3%，较上一季所创的该业务收入前纪录高21%。数据中心业务一季度约占总营收的92%，说明英伟达当前几乎已经成为一家高度由AI数据中心资本开支驱动的公司。这组数据释放的正面信号很明确：全球云厂商、企业客户和AI基础设施投资仍在继续，训练和推理需求仍对英伟达高端GPU、网络产品和整套数据中心解决方案形成支撑。只要AI资本开支周期没有明显降温，英伟达的核心收入来源就仍具备较强韧性。但这也带来一个潜在问题：市场对数据中心业务的依赖程度越来越高。当数据中心占比超过九成，投资者对该业务的任何边际变化都会极其敏感。即便752亿美元本身超预期，只要增长速度没有明显高于此前乐观假设，股价也可能出现“利好兑现”式波动。此外，按照以前的财报框架，数据中心业务中的数据中心计算收入同比增长77%，增至创纪录的604亿美元，仍低于分析师预期的将近611亿美元，环比增18%；当季数据中心网络收入同比增199%至148亿美元、也创新高。EPS增速重新加快，毛利率高位稳定盈利能力是本季财报的另一大亮点。英伟达一季度非GAAP调整后EPS为1.87美元，高于市场预期1.76美元，同比增速达到140%。相比上一季度82%的同比增速，本季度利润增速明显重新加快，显示收入增长仍在高效转化为利润增长。毛利率方面，非GAAP毛利率为75.0%，高于市场预期的74.5%，同比大幅提升14.2个百分点。这一水平对半导体公司而言极高，反映出英伟达在AI芯片、系统、软件生态和供应链议价中的优势地位。但从环比看，毛利率较上一季度75.1%略低0.1个百分点。这个变化并不大，也谈不上明显压力，但对于估值已经很高的英伟达来说，市场会非常敏感地观察毛利率是否已经接近阶段性高点。尤其在产品切换、供应链扩张和客户结构变化过程中，投资者会关注后续毛利率能否继续维持在75%左右的高位。二季度营收指引高于预期 且不含中国数据中心计算收入英伟达预计二季度营收为910亿美元、上下浮动2%，即891.8亿美元至928.2亿美元，高于分析师预期均值870亿美元，但还低于最乐观预期960亿美元。二季度非GAAP口径下毛利率预计为75.0%，上下浮动50个基点，即74.5%至75.5%。考虑到英伟达在其展望中并未计入来自中国的任何数据中心计算业务营收，二季度的指引无疑稳健。英伟达称指引不含上述中国市场部分收入有两层含义。一方面，这体现了公司对中国相关业务的不确定性采取了较为保守的处理方式。在出口管制、产品合规和地缘政治风险持续存在的背景下，英伟达没有把中国数据中心计算收入纳入二季度指引，有助于降低指引兑现风险。另一方面，这也让二季度910亿美元的指引显得更有分量。也就是说，即便没有计入中国数据中心计算业务，公司仍预计营收显著高于市场预期，说明中国以外地区的数据中心需求足够强劲。如果未来中国相关业务出现边际改善，理论上还可能带来额外上行空间。800亿美元回购与大幅上调派息，显示现金充裕但难以成为股价主线英伟达董事会授权追加800亿美元股票回购，这是一个相当可观的资本回报计划。与此同时，公司将季度股息从每股0.01美元提高至0.25美元，增幅达24倍。该笔股息将于2026 年 6 月26日支付。这说明英伟达管理层对公司现金流和长期盈利能力有信心。对于大型科技股而言，大规模回购通常可以在股价波动时提供一定支撑，也有助于提高每股收益表现。不过，对英伟达这类高成长、高估值股票来说，股息和回购通常不是市场定价的第一变量。投资者真正关心的仍是AI芯片需求、数据中心收入增速、产品迭代节奏、供给能力和利润率趋势。换言之，800亿美元回购是利好，但很难单独抵消市场对“增长惊喜不足”的担忧。新版财报框架带来重新定价过程英伟达同时披露，公司正在向新的财报框架过渡，该框架能更准确地反映其当前及未来的增长驱动力切换至新版报告框架。具体而言，这种框架是：英伟达设立两大市场平台——数据中心（Data Center）和边缘计算（Edge Computing）。在数据中心平台内部，将披露两个细分市场的数据：超大规模（Hyperscale）市场，以及 ACIE 市场（涵盖 AI 云、工业应用及企业级应用）。其中，超大规模市场将包含来自公有云服务商及全球顶尖消费互联网公司的营收。ACIE 市场则旨在展现英伟达在各行各业及全球各地，针对各类专为 AI 用途构建的数据中心及“AI 工厂”所蕴藏的增长机遇。边缘计算平台则重点涵盖各类用于支持Agentic AI及实体 AI 的数据处理设备，具体包括个人电脑（PC）、游戏主机、工作站、AI-RAN 基站、机器人设备以及汽车系统。以上变化本身不一定是负面，但会影响投资者对不同业务线的可比性分析。对于英伟达而言，市场长期跟踪的核心指标包括数据中心收入、游戏业务、专业可视化、汽车与机器人等板块表现。报告口径调整后，投资者需要重新理解各业务的边界、收入归类方式以及同比/环比趋势。这类调整有时会增加财报发布初期的交易噪音。尤其是英伟达这类高度被量化资金、期权资金和高频交易关注的公司，盘后交易往往会先对 headline数据作出反应，再根据电话会和报告细节重新定价。新版报告框架可能也是股价盘后震荡的原因之一。对于长期投资者来说，报告框架调整本身未必改变公司的基本面，但会对短期模型比较产生影响。分析师需要重新梳理不同业务线之间的归类方式、历史口径的可比性，以及新框架下哪些指标更能反映核心增长动能。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDG":0.6,"NVDY":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"ANV":0.6,"NVD":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"07388":0.6,"NVDA":2,"NVII":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"07788":0.6,"DIPS":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563806650463480,"gmtCreate":1778682436827,"gmtModify":1778682861707,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"涨给特朗普看","listText":"涨给特朗普看","text":"涨给特朗普看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563806650463480","repostId":"1163243737","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163243737","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1778680545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163243737?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-05-13 21:55","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"异动｜中国资产爆发！世纪互联涨超30%，阿里、京东涨超8%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163243737","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"京东涨近7%，百度、蔚来涨超5%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>周三，中国资产爆发。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅扩大至4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETF-Direxion</a> 涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion</a> 涨6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares</a> 涨5%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea135bdc0df9a858dbbefc6c8d103701\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>个股方面。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a> 涨超30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a> 涨超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a> 涨近20%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a> 涨超4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/309f62a69ba6dbdb394e816ca6672fb0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/572eed6b1e2388f493df3f17aedfa657\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>异动｜中国资产爆发！世纪互联涨超30%，阿里、京东涨超8%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n异动｜中国资产爆发！世纪互联涨超30%，阿里、京东涨超8%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-05-13 21:55</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>周三，中国资产爆发。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅扩大至4%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CWEB\">两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETF-Direxion</a> 涨近10%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/YINN\">三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion</a> 涨6%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KWEB\">中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares</a> 涨5%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea135bdc0df9a858dbbefc6c8d103701\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p>个股方面。 <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/VNET\">世纪互联</a> 涨超30%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a> 涨超8%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/KC\">金山云</a> 涨近20%， <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BIDU\">百度</a> 、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a> 涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a> 涨超4%。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/309f62a69ba6dbdb394e816ca6672fb0\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/572eed6b1e2388f493df3f17aedfa657\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\" data-image-type=\"kline\"/></p><p></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d752152b73947ff2f4b1c08ab9eecc39","relate_stocks":{"BIDU":"百度","KC":"金山云","BABO":"BABA期权收益策略ETF-YieldMax","BABA":"阿里巴巴","KJD":"2倍做多JD ETF-KraneShares","BABX":"2倍做多BABA ETF-GraniteShares","BIDG":"2倍做多BIDU ETF-Leverage Shares","KBAB":"2倍做多BABA ETF-KraneShares","BABU":"Direxion Daily BABA Bull 2X ETF","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","NIOG":"2倍做多NIO ETF-Leverage Shares","BBYY":"GraniteShares YieldBOOST BABA ETF","JD":"京东","KBDU":"2倍做多BIDU ETF-KraneShares","BABW":"Roundhill BABA WeeklyPay ETF"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163243737","content_text":"周三，中国资产爆发。纳斯达克中国金龙指数涨幅扩大至4%， 两倍做多沪深中国互联网股票ETF-Direxion 涨近10%，三倍做多富时中国ETF-Direxion 涨6%， 中国海外互联网ETF-KraneShares 涨5%。个股方面。 世纪互联 涨超30%，阿里巴巴 、京东 涨超8%， 金山云 涨近20%， 百度 、蔚来 涨超7%，理想汽车 涨超4%。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BIDG":0.6,"LI":2,"BBYY":0.6,"NIOG":0.6,"BABW":0.6,"BABO":0.6,"BABU":0.6,"BIDU":2,"JD":2,"BABA":2,"KC":2,"BABX":0.6,"KBAB":0.6,"NIO":2,"KJD":0.6,"KBDU":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1355,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3498680662745699","authorId":"3498680662745699","name":"Mediator","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e27d4b46eee1454d2bd4f83bb56ab921","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3498680662745699","idStr":"3498680662745699"},"content":"确实很有可能，访华时期撑门面，顺便诱多，还给六月高位接盘智谱和minimax铺路，一举三得。","text":"确实很有可能，访华时期撑门面，顺便诱多，还给六月高位接盘智谱和minimax铺路，一举三得。","html":"确实很有可能，访华时期撑门面，顺便诱多，还给六月高位接盘智谱和minimax铺路，一举三得。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":563800009142360,"gmtCreate":1778680792047,"gmtModify":1778681187625,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a> 丧事喜办","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$阿里巴巴(BABA)$&nbsp;</a> 丧事喜办","text":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$ 丧事喜办","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/563800009142360","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":560820765796040,"gmtCreate":1777950895569,"gmtModify":1777950898466,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"AMD肯定预期不行，为什么呢！因为GPU投入太大了，GPU需求开始下降了，数据中心一直不是英特尔对手，内存价格上涨，装机减少！怎么看英特尔都是CPU需求增长最大受益者","listText":"AMD肯定预期不行，为什么呢！因为GPU投入太大了，GPU需求开始下降了，数据中心一直不是英特尔对手，内存价格上涨，装机减少！怎么看英特尔都是CPU需求增长最大受益者","text":"AMD肯定预期不行，为什么呢！因为GPU投入太大了，GPU需求开始下降了，数据中心一直不是英特尔对手，内存价格上涨，装机减少！怎么看英特尔都是CPU需求增长最大受益者","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/560820765796040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6151,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4123883148833520","authorId":"4123883148833520","name":"抱西瓜捡芝麻","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4123883148833520","idStr":"4123883148833520"},"content":"数据中心一直不是英特尔对手。。。你是来搞笑的么","text":"数据中心一直不是英特尔对手。。。你是来搞笑的么","html":"数据中心一直不是英特尔对手。。。你是来搞笑的么"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":559129367478336,"gmtCreate":1777537881836,"gmtModify":1777537884361,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"下一次谷歌也赢不了","listText":"下一次谷歌也赢不了","text":"下一次谷歌也赢不了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/559129367478336","repostId":"2631701765","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2631701765","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1777519935,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2631701765?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-30 11:32","market":"other","language":"zh","title":"科技巨头财报大比拼，为什么只有谷歌赢了？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2631701765","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"核心在于谷歌云营收大增63%，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，巨额订单为其AI资本支出提供了清晰回报逻辑。而其余三家因云增速不及预期或缺乏变现路径引发担忧。市场逻辑已明确：只奖励有订单支撑的AI投入，惩罚无法变现的烧钱。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>核心在于谷歌云营收大增63%，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，巨额订单为其AI资本支出提供了清晰回报逻辑。而其余三家因云增速不及预期或缺乏变现路径引发担忧。市场逻辑已明确：只奖励有订单支撑的AI投入，惩罚无法变现的烧钱。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月29日同一天，谷歌、Meta、微软、亚马逊四家科技巨头都公布了财报，且全部超出华尔街预期，但市场却只奖励了其中一家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet周三（4月29日）盘后股价大涨逾7%，<strong>成为这场财报季&#34;超级碗&#34;的唯一赢家。</strong>谷歌云季度营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，为巨额资本支出提供了清晰的回报逻辑。首席执行官Sundar Pichai在财报电话会上表示：&#34;<strong>我们的AI投资和全栈布局正在点亮业务的每一个角落</strong>。&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ab560ea7bc87010a47aaaa1d103464\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"585\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Meta盘后跌逾7%，微软和亚马逊各跌约2%。三家公司的共同困境在于：<strong>资本支出大幅攀升，但云业务增速或不及预期，或仅与市场预期持平，投资者对AI投入能否转化为可见回报的疑虑明显升温。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ec97605b76224d1c29cfb65fbbb922\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"584\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士指出，这场财报季的核心分歧，不在于谁的业绩更好，而在于谁的支出更有说服力。这也折射出市场对科技巨头AI叙事的重新审视——有订单支撑的投入被奖励，缺乏变现路径的烧钱则遭到惩罚。</p><h2 id=\"id_314187186\" style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌：云业务爆发，AI投资获认可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet本季度的核心亮点集中于谷歌云。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，云业务营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，运营利润率达33%，远超市场预期。更关键的是，谷歌云订单积压规模较上季度近乎翻倍，达到462亿美元，AI需求与张量处理器（TPU）硬件销售是主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一数字为Alphabet上调资本支出计划提供了直接背书。<strong>公司将全年资本支出指引从此前的1750亿至1850亿美元上调至1800亿至1900亿美元，并暗示2027年资本支出将&#34;大幅增加&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>投资者对Google Cloud的增长如此着迷，以至于他们愿意忽略Alphabet上调的资本支出预期。</strong>Direxion资本市场主管Jake Behan在报告中指出：“Alphabet的投资得到了回报，因为它背后有4600亿美元的订单积压作为支撑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">首席财务官Anat Ashkenazi在电话会上表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;我们对AI算力资源的内外部需求正处于前所未有的水平。&#34;Pichai亦补充称：&#34;如果我们能满足需求，云业务收入本可以更高。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>广告业务同样稳健。</strong>搜索广告营收同比增长19%至604亿美元，YouTube广告收入增长11%至近100亿美元，订阅、平台及设备业务增长19%至124亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3345784751\" style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊与微软：云业务增速成焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与Alphabet的顺风顺水不同，亚马逊和微软的云业务表现虽然稳健，但未能完全满足市场的极高期待。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Jefferies分析师Brent Thill在财报后的报告中写道，<strong>尽管亚马逊的AWS本季度加速至28%的增长，但这一结果略低于28%至30%的目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">瑞银（UBS）的分析师Stephen Ju也指出，AWS 28%的增长低于瑞银和投资者分别预期的32%和30%以上，这将在短期内拖累股价。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，亚马逊在电子商务和广告业务上的强劲表现，以及对第二季度的乐观指引，为股价提供了一定支撑。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>微软方面，</strong>尽管报告了付费Copilot订阅量环比增加500万，但Azure 39%的营收增长仅符合预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱分析师Raimo Lenschow认为，<strong>微软第一季度业绩稳健，但没有重大惊喜。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他指出，Azure的稳定增长（按固定汇率计算为39%）与AWS（28%）和GCP（63%）的显著加速相比，可能引发市场的进一步辩论。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，微软计划今年在资本支出上投入1900亿美元，低于市场预期的380亿美元，这可能让人对其AI势头产生疑问。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_329437350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta：资本支出激增引发担忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta的处境则更为尴尬。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，尽管其第一季度营收增长33%，超出预期，但这并不足以在投资者眼中证明其增加资本支出的合理性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Meta现在计划在2026年支出1250亿至1450亿美元，高于此前1150亿至1350亿美元的预期。</strong>与其他三家超大规模云计算公司不同，Meta没有向客户销售AI计算的云业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">瑞银分析师Esha Vaish指出，<strong>资本支出指引的增加和符合预期的第二季度营收指引，抵消了第一季度营收和利润超预期的利好</strong>，从而拖累了股价。投资者将密切关注其产品开发（如商业聊天机器人/Meta AI）的数据点，以及增加资本支出预算的理由。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>科技巨头财报大比拼，为什么只有谷歌赢了？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n科技巨头财报大比拼，为什么只有谷歌赢了？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-30 11:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>核心在于谷歌云营收大增63%，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，巨额订单为其AI资本支出提供了清晰回报逻辑。而其余三家因云增速不及预期或缺乏变现路径引发担忧。市场逻辑已明确：只奖励有订单支撑的AI投入，惩罚无法变现的烧钱。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">4月29日同一天，谷歌、Meta、微软、亚马逊四家科技巨头都公布了财报，且全部超出华尔街预期，但市场却只奖励了其中一家。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet周三（4月29日）盘后股价大涨逾7%，<strong>成为这场财报季&#34;超级碗&#34;的唯一赢家。</strong>谷歌云季度营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，为巨额资本支出提供了清晰的回报逻辑。首席执行官Sundar Pichai在财报电话会上表示：&#34;<strong>我们的AI投资和全栈布局正在点亮业务的每一个角落</strong>。&#34;</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b7ab560ea7bc87010a47aaaa1d103464\" tg-width=\"845\" tg-height=\"585\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与此同时，Meta盘后跌逾7%，微软和亚马逊各跌约2%。三家公司的共同困境在于：<strong>资本支出大幅攀升，但云业务增速或不及预期，或仅与市场预期持平，投资者对AI投入能否转化为可见回报的疑虑明显升温。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26ec97605b76224d1c29cfb65fbbb922\" tg-width=\"854\" tg-height=\"584\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析人士指出，这场财报季的核心分歧，不在于谁的业绩更好，而在于谁的支出更有说服力。这也折射出市场对科技巨头AI叙事的重新审视——有订单支撑的投入被奖励，缺乏变现路径的烧钱则遭到惩罚。</p><h2 id=\"id_314187186\" style=\"text-align: left;\">谷歌：云业务爆发，AI投资获认可</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Alphabet本季度的核心亮点集中于谷歌云。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">财报显示，云业务营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，运营利润率达33%，远超市场预期。更关键的是，谷歌云订单积压规模较上季度近乎翻倍，达到462亿美元，AI需求与张量处理器（TPU）硬件销售是主要驱动力。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这一数字为Alphabet上调资本支出计划提供了直接背书。<strong>公司将全年资本支出指引从此前的1750亿至1850亿美元上调至1800亿至1900亿美元，并暗示2027年资本支出将&#34;大幅增加&#34;。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>投资者对Google Cloud的增长如此着迷，以至于他们愿意忽略Alphabet上调的资本支出预期。</strong>Direxion资本市场主管Jake Behan在报告中指出：“Alphabet的投资得到了回报，因为它背后有4600亿美元的订单积压作为支撑。”</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">首席财务官Anat Ashkenazi在电话会上表示：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">&#34;我们对AI算力资源的内外部需求正处于前所未有的水平。&#34;Pichai亦补充称：&#34;如果我们能满足需求，云业务收入本可以更高。&#34;</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>广告业务同样稳健。</strong>搜索广告营收同比增长19%至604亿美元，YouTube广告收入增长11%至近100亿美元，订阅、平台及设备业务增长19%至124亿美元。</p><h2 id=\"id_3345784751\" style=\"text-align: left;\">亚马逊与微软：云业务增速成焦点</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">与Alphabet的顺风顺水不同，亚马逊和微软的云业务表现虽然稳健，但未能完全满足市场的极高期待。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Jefferies分析师Brent Thill在财报后的报告中写道，<strong>尽管亚马逊的AWS本季度加速至28%的增长，但这一结果略低于28%至30%的目标。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">瑞银（UBS）的分析师Stephen Ju也指出，AWS 28%的增长低于瑞银和投资者分别预期的32%和30%以上，这将在短期内拖累股价。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">不过，亚马逊在电子商务和广告业务上的强劲表现，以及对第二季度的乐观指引，为股价提供了一定支撑。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>微软方面，</strong>尽管报告了付费Copilot订阅量环比增加500万，但Azure 39%的营收增长仅符合预期。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">巴克莱分析师Raimo Lenschow认为，<strong>微软第一季度业绩稳健，但没有重大惊喜。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">他指出，Azure的稳定增长（按固定汇率计算为39%）与AWS（28%）和GCP（63%）的显著加速相比，可能引发市场的进一步辩论。</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\">此外，微软计划今年在资本支出上投入1900亿美元，低于市场预期的380亿美元，这可能让人对其AI势头产生疑问。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_329437350\" style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta：资本支出激增引发担忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Meta的处境则更为尴尬。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">分析指出，尽管其第一季度营收增长33%，超出预期，但这并不足以在投资者眼中证明其增加资本支出的合理性。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Meta现在计划在2026年支出1250亿至1450亿美元，高于此前1150亿至1350亿美元的预期。</strong>与其他三家超大规模云计算公司不同，Meta没有向客户销售AI计算的云业务。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">瑞银分析师Esha Vaish指出，<strong>资本支出指引的增加和符合预期的第二季度营收指引，抵消了第一季度营收和利润超预期的利好</strong>，从而拖累了股价。投资者将密切关注其产品开发（如商业聊天机器人/Meta AI）的数据点，以及增加资本支出预算的理由。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69bda624dad1064625bad9c30f3beafa","relate_stocks":{"LU0788109477.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL ALLOCATION \"A2\" (HKDHGD) 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INC","BK4514":"搜索引擎"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3771342","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2631701765","content_text":"核心在于谷歌云营收大增63%，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，巨额订单为其AI资本支出提供了清晰回报逻辑。而其余三家因云增速不及预期或缺乏变现路径引发担忧。市场逻辑已明确：只奖励有订单支撑的AI投入，惩罚无法变现的烧钱。4月29日同一天，谷歌、Meta、微软、亚马逊四家科技巨头都公布了财报，且全部超出华尔街预期，但市场却只奖励了其中一家。Alphabet周三（4月29日）盘后股价大涨逾7%，成为这场财报季\"超级碗\"的唯一赢家。谷歌云季度营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，订单积压规模近乎翻倍至462亿美元，为巨额资本支出提供了清晰的回报逻辑。首席执行官Sundar Pichai在财报电话会上表示：\"我们的AI投资和全栈布局正在点亮业务的每一个角落。\"与此同时，Meta盘后跌逾7%，微软和亚马逊各跌约2%。三家公司的共同困境在于：资本支出大幅攀升，但云业务增速或不及预期，或仅与市场预期持平，投资者对AI投入能否转化为可见回报的疑虑明显升温。分析人士指出，这场财报季的核心分歧，不在于谁的业绩更好，而在于谁的支出更有说服力。这也折射出市场对科技巨头AI叙事的重新审视——有订单支撑的投入被奖励，缺乏变现路径的烧钱则遭到惩罚。谷歌：云业务爆发，AI投资获认可Alphabet本季度的核心亮点集中于谷歌云。财报显示，云业务营收同比增长63%至200亿美元，运营利润率达33%，远超市场预期。更关键的是，谷歌云订单积压规模较上季度近乎翻倍，达到462亿美元，AI需求与张量处理器（TPU）硬件销售是主要驱动力。这一数字为Alphabet上调资本支出计划提供了直接背书。公司将全年资本支出指引从此前的1750亿至1850亿美元上调至1800亿至1900亿美元，并暗示2027年资本支出将\"大幅增加\"。投资者对Google Cloud的增长如此着迷，以至于他们愿意忽略Alphabet上调的资本支出预期。Direxion资本市场主管Jake Behan在报告中指出：“Alphabet的投资得到了回报，因为它背后有4600亿美元的订单积压作为支撑。”首席财务官Anat Ashkenazi在电话会上表示：\"我们对AI算力资源的内外部需求正处于前所未有的水平。\"Pichai亦补充称：\"如果我们能满足需求，云业务收入本可以更高。\"广告业务同样稳健。搜索广告营收同比增长19%至604亿美元，YouTube广告收入增长11%至近100亿美元，订阅、平台及设备业务增长19%至124亿美元。亚马逊与微软：云业务增速成焦点与Alphabet的顺风顺水不同，亚马逊和微软的云业务表现虽然稳健，但未能完全满足市场的极高期待。Jefferies分析师Brent Thill在财报后的报告中写道，尽管亚马逊的AWS本季度加速至28%的增长，但这一结果略低于28%至30%的目标。瑞银（UBS）的分析师Stephen Ju也指出，AWS 28%的增长低于瑞银和投资者分别预期的32%和30%以上，这将在短期内拖累股价。不过，亚马逊在电子商务和广告业务上的强劲表现，以及对第二季度的乐观指引，为股价提供了一定支撑。微软方面，尽管报告了付费Copilot订阅量环比增加500万，但Azure 39%的营收增长仅符合预期。巴克莱分析师Raimo Lenschow认为，微软第一季度业绩稳健，但没有重大惊喜。他指出，Azure的稳定增长（按固定汇率计算为39%）与AWS（28%）和GCP（63%）的显著加速相比，可能引发市场的进一步辩论。此外，微软计划今年在资本支出上投入1900亿美元，低于市场预期的380亿美元，这可能让人对其AI势头产生疑问。Meta：资本支出激增引发担忧Meta的处境则更为尴尬。分析指出，尽管其第一季度营收增长33%，超出预期，但这并不足以在投资者眼中证明其增加资本支出的合理性。Meta现在计划在2026年支出1250亿至1450亿美元，高于此前1150亿至1350亿美元的预期。与其他三家超大规模云计算公司不同，Meta没有向客户销售AI计算的云业务。瑞银分析师Esha Vaish指出，资本支出指引的增加和符合预期的第二季度营收指引，抵消了第一季度营收和利润超预期的利好，从而拖累了股价。投资者将密切关注其产品开发（如商业聊天机器人/Meta AI）的数据点，以及增加资本支出预算的理由。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":1.85,"GOOY":0.6,"GOOX":0.6,"GOU":0.6,"GOOGL":1.98,"MSFT":1.85,"META":1.87,"GGLS":0.6,"GOOP":0.6,"GGLL":0.6,"GOOW":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1389,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":553003208069376,"gmtCreate":1776045113315,"gmtModify":1776045115644,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"故事大王","listText":"故事大王","text":"故事大王","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/553003208069376","repostId":"2627107867","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2627107867","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776044991,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2627107867?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-13 09:49","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"牵手国家级数据交易所！迅策科技加速布局垂类Token工厂，股价暴涨22%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2627107867","media":"智通财经","summary":"智通财经APP获悉，4月12日，迅策科技（03317）与深圳数据交易所正式签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在三方面展开合作：一是联合推动企业数智化转型；二是共建数据资产化与入表服务体系；三是打造具身智能数据规范体系，覆盖智能机器人、自动驾驶、智能终端等场景。迅策科技作为“Token第一股”，以AI Data Agent为核心，构建了从数据获取、清洗、标准化到模型调优的全链路技术能力。此次合作标志着公司正在从“数据治理”向“垂类Token精炼”延伸，为AI推理时代的高质量数据供给提供基础设施支撑。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>4月13日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03317\">迅策</a>盘初涨超22%，公司与深圳数据交易所正式签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在三方面展开合作：一是联合推动企业数智化转型；二是共建数据资产化与入表服务体系；三是打造具身智能数据规范体系，覆盖智能机器人、自动驾驶、智能终端等场景。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cae91c4e12288f8dceade195a8b75ce3\" tg-width=\"978\" tg-height=\"559\"/></p><p>迅策科技作为“Token第一股”，以AI Data Agent为核心，构建了从数据获取、清洗、标准化到模型调优的全链路技术能力。此次合作标志着公司正在从“数据治理”向“垂类Token精炼”延伸，为AI推理时代的高质量数据供给提供基础设施支撑。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE 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class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-13 09:49 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427524.html><strong>智通财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>4月13日，迅策盘初涨超22%，公司与深圳数据交易所正式签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在三方面展开合作：一是联合推动企业数智化转型；二是共建数据资产化与入表服务体系；三是打造具身智能数据规范体系，覆盖智能机器人、自动驾驶、智能终端等场景。迅策科技作为“Token第一股”，以AI Data Agent为核心，构建了从数据获取、清洗、标准化到模型调优的全链路技术能力。此次合作标志着公司正在从“数据...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427524.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87a679ede1e23d7f01b3e330ca38448","relate_stocks":{"03317":"迅策","BK1155":"信息科技咨询与其它服务"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1427524.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2627107867","content_text":"4月13日，迅策盘初涨超22%，公司与深圳数据交易所正式签署战略合作协议。根据协议，双方将在三方面展开合作：一是联合推动企业数智化转型；二是共建数据资产化与入表服务体系；三是打造具身智能数据规范体系，覆盖智能机器人、自动驾驶、智能终端等场景。迅策科技作为“Token第一股”，以AI Data Agent为核心，构建了从数据获取、清洗、标准化到模型调优的全链路技术能力。此次合作标志着公司正在从“数据治理”向“垂类Token精炼”延伸，为AI推理时代的高质量数据供给提供基础设施支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03317":1.5}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1543,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":552008926500856,"gmtCreate":1775802443045,"gmtModify":1775802445280,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没人紧张，不赚钱都没用","listText":"没人紧张，不赚钱都没用","text":"没人紧张，不赚钱都没用","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/552008926500856","repostId":"1147448074","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1147448074","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1775801747,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1147448074?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-10 14:15","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"匿名霸榜、阿里认领，HappyHorse让谁紧张？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147448074","media":"定焦One","summary":"更需要强调的是，目前除了官方榜单与有限的外部样本外，HappyHorse尚未经过充分的第三方使用与验证。多个信源将HappyHorse与张迪联系在一起。直到4月10日，阿里巴巴方面表示，HappyHorse是阿里ATH旗下创新事业部郑波团队研发的模型，目前处于内测，会于近期开放API。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>Seedance和可灵还睡得着吗？</p></blockquote><p>一匹匿名黑马，成为了AI视频圈最热的话题。</p><p>近日，Artificial Analysis的视频竞技场排行榜更新。一个从未出现过的名字——HappyHorse-1.0，同时出现在四个子榜单的前两位：截至4月9日中午，文生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1378分，领先第二名Seedance2.0整整105分；图生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1411分，刷新全平台历史最高纪录。在带音频的赛道上，它以1分和2分的微弱优势与Seedance 2.0并驾齐驱。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/344bbb5f648a68a36aadddd8aef166e1\" alt=\"图源 / Artificial Analysis\" title=\"图源 / Artificial Analysis\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"655\"/><span>图源 / Artificial Analysis</span></p><p>没有发布会，没有任何公司背书，这匹黑马在短时间内完成了从零到双榜第一的跨越，将此前稳坐榜首数月的字节跳动Seedance2.0拉下了王座。在它的模型名称旁边，只有四个字：“即将推出”。这匹马，还没有真正跑起来。</p><p>直到4月10日，阿里官宣它来自ATH旗下创新事业部。接下来，HappyHorse会给行业带来什么？</p><h2 id=\"id_596530727\">01.HappyHorse的第一，含金量如何？</h2><p>要理解HappyHorse的真实水平，需先拆解它在Artificial Analysis（以下简称“AA”）不同榜单上的得分情况。</p><p><strong>AA视频竞技场设四大核心赛道：文生视频（无音频）、图生视频（无音频）、文生视频（带音频）、图生视频（带音频）。</strong>截至4月9日的最新数据，在纯画质维度，HappyHorse已经建立统治地位；但一旦进入音画融合，它的领先优势并没有那么明显。</p><p>在文生视频（无声）赛道，HappyHorse斩获1378分，领先第二名字节跳动Seedance2.0 105 分。在Elo体系中，超过百分的差距意味着用户在盲测中几乎呈现“一边倒”的偏好。而在图生视频（无声）赛道，它跑出的1411分更是刷新了平台历史记录。对于追求极致运镜与画面质感的创作者而言，这匹马目前就是行业天花板。</p><p><strong>然而，一旦加入音频维度，战局瞬间反转。</strong>HappyHorse与Seedance2.0的分差收缩至1-2分，几乎可以忽略不计。这也说明，在音画同步、音频质量及语义对齐层面，HappyHorse并未实现大幅超越，双方仍处于同一技术水平线。</p><p>结合社交媒体上的技术拆解与用户反馈，HappyHorse的优势大致可以归结为两个方向。</p><p><strong>其一是架构层面的统一建模路径：</strong>多个信源指出，它采用约150亿参数规模的纯自注意力单流Transformer，将文本、视频与音频token放入同一序列进行联合建模，这种方式区别于常见的“视频生成+音频后处理”的拼接方案，使声音与画面在生成之初就处于同一语义空间，从而在口播与人物场景中呈现出更自然的同步效果。</p><p><strong>其二是对人像场景的针对性优化：</strong>根据公开信息，多位参与AA盲测的用户反馈，其人物面部纹理更加细腻、镜头切换更为流畅，在复杂提示词下的人物一致性表现也更稳定，一位用户在连续对比Pyramid-Flow、Veo 3.1 Lite与PixVerse V6后甚至表示“只要出现HappyHorse基本都会选它”。</p><p>而这一主观体验恰好与Elo高分形成呼应。在AA的评测样本中，人像与口播类内容占比超过60%，使得这一局部优势被持续放大，并最终体现在整体排名上。</p><p><strong>但高分并不意味着全能，社交媒体上的批评声同样不少。</strong></p><p>不少用户指出，已经发布的视频中水体抖动细节不自然、快速运动中的条纹物体崩坏以及在大屏显示下的画质劣化等问题。这些缺陷在无音频赛道的高分掩盖下往往被忽略，但在影视级应用中却是致命伤。一位AIGC导演告诉「AIX财经」，从流出的片段看，它的感官很接近Seedance2.0，真实度不错，但剧烈运动时的“AI感”依然浓重。</p><p>X用户daniel.dmai更是直言不讳：“别把排名太当回事。当HappyHorse碰到的都是些旧模型时，大家自然会选那个看起来更顺眼的。它跟 Seedance2.0比还差得远。”</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ac535c5c58831f470dfc2b14be774e5\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"542\"/></p><p><strong>这种分歧，正好指向Elo盲测机制的优势与局限。</strong></p><p>在AA评测中，用户先提交提示词或参考图像，系统调用两个模型生成结果并进行匿名展示，用户在不知模型来源的情况下进行选择，所有投票被纳入类似国际象棋排名的Elo系统，根据胜负关系动态调整分数，从而得到最终排名。</p><p>作为AI视频领域最具公信力的评测体系之一，Artificial Analysis的权威性正是来自于这套能够捕捉用户真实偏好的游戏规则。HappyHorse的高分是超过9000次真实用户盲选结果，比任何实验室跑出来的技术指标都更接近真实用户感受。</p><p>但其局限同样明显。首先，样本分布并非均衡，人像与口播类内容占比过高，使得在该场景中表现突出的模型更容易获得高分。另外，“刷榜”风险同样存在。有研究指出，Elo评分系统在特定情况下，可能通过数学变换掩盖底层数据的不确定性，从而影响评分。</p><p>因此，榜单高分不等于实际应用中的完美表现。在实际项目中，高分辨率下细节的稳定性、长时间视频的连贯性等，都是榜单盲测难以覆盖的。</p><p>更需要强调的是，目前除了官方榜单与有限的外部样本外，HappyHorse尚未经过充分的第三方使用与验证。这匹“匿名快马”的真实速度与能力，需等模型真正披露后才会揭晓。</p><h2 id=\"id_861912958\">02.这匹马来自哪里？</h2><p>随着HappyHorse霸榜，寻找这匹马的“主人”成了本周AI圈最热闹的猜谜游戏。</p><p>目前流传最广的线索，主要来自两个方向。</p><p><strong>第一条线索来自技术侧的逐项对比。</strong></p><p>有开发者将HappyHorse在榜单中的公开基准表现，与已知模型逐项对比，试图通过“能力特征”反推其来源。X用户Vigo Zhao的比对结果指向一个高度重合的对象——daVinci-MagiHuman。视觉质量4.80、文本对齐4.18、物理一致性4.52、语音字错率14.60%，四项核心指标几乎一一对应。与此同时，两者在官网架构描述、演示视频风格上的相似性，也让这一猜测进一步增强。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/313f4a91ff67360af601225f8b4e0941\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"1057\"/></p><p>公开信息显示，daVinci-MagiHuman由上海创智学院（SII）生成式人工智能研究实验室（GAIR）与AI初创公司Sand.ai联合研发，已于今年3月在GitHub开源。如果这一链条成立，那么HappyHorse并非“横空出世”，而是一次技术复用。</p><p>相比于技术比对，<strong>第二条线索更具戏剧性，它指向了一个名字——张迪。</strong></p><p>多个信源将HappyHorse与张迪联系在一起。公开信息显示，张迪在2010年毕业于上海交大后加入阿里，在阿里妈妈体系内长期负责大数据与机器学习架构。2020年，他转投快手，担任技术副总裁，主导搭建可灵大模型体系，并推出可灵1.0 / 2.0视频生成模型，被业内称为“可灵之父”。2025年短暂加入B站后，又在同年回归阿里，出任淘天集团未来生活实验室负责人。</p><p>如果传闻属实，时间线在这里变得耐人寻味。张迪回归阿里约5个月后，HappyHorse登顶，这意味着一支刚刚重组的团队，在半年内就用一款更轻量、更高效的模型实现了对行业头部的“反杀”。这是技术能力的体现，也意味着人才流动正在重新塑造竞争格局。</p><p><strong>「AIX财经」向阿里相关人员求证，对方回复“这个事情我们不太了解”。</strong>但资本市场已先行一步。消息发酵当天，阿里巴巴港股一度上涨超过 7%。直到4月10日，阿里巴巴方面表示，HappyHorse是阿里ATH旗下创新事业部郑波团队研发的模型，目前处于内测，会于近期开放API。郑波是阿里副总裁，于2017年9月加入，历任淘宝搜推算法负责人、阿里妈妈CTO、淘天集团算法技术负责人。</p><p>不过，HappyHorse的出场方式本身，或许比“它是谁”更重要。</p><p>从命名到发布路径，它都带有明显的“设计痕迹”。2026年是农历马年，“HappyHorse”本身藏着马年梗；官方支持语言中将普通话与粤语并列，也进一步强化了其出自亚洲团队的可能性。更关键的是，它选择的不是发布会，而是榜单，不是讲故事，而是直接给结果。</p><p>这一策略并非孤例。今年2月，神秘模型Pony Alpha在OpenRouter平台上线时，同样没有任何背景信息，却迅速引发行业“猜爹”，最终被证实为智谱AI的GLM-5。路径几乎完全一致：匿名上线-榜单出圈-身份揭晓。</p><p><strong>先盲测，再发布——正在成为一种可复制的行业打法。</strong></p><p>把模型丢进第三方评测平台，剥离品牌溢价，只拼性价比，让用户用鼠标投票。如果跑出好成绩，自然引发行业关注和媒体报道。</p><p>这种策略特别适合资源有限但技术尖端的亚洲团队。不用砸钱做营销，只需要一个足够好的模型和一个足够公信的评测平台。HappyHorse的参数规模约150亿，并不算当前视频模型中的“巨无霸”，Seedance2.0的体量普遍被认为更大，但它通过架构设计与评测场景的精准匹配，实现了“以小博大”的效果。</p><p>但这种策略也有短板。</p><p>当用户不知道模型来自哪里时，评价标准被压缩到最单一的维度——好不好用。一旦身份揭晓、产品开放，用户的判断会迅速叠加品牌、稳定性、成本与可控性等因素，预期也会随之抬升。<strong>如果实际体验无法支撑这种预期，热度往往会迅速回落。</strong></p><p>Pony Alpha在身份确认后的关注度明显低于匿名阶段，正是一个典型例子。因此，与其说HappyHorse的悬念在于“它是谁”，不如说在于当这匹马真正亮相之后，它还能不能跑出现在这样的速度。</p><h2 id=\"id_2301101273\">03.“快乐马”让谁不快乐？</h2><p>如果把时间线拉长，AI视频赛道正处于一场剧烈的重构之中。</p><p>2026年初，字节跳动的Seedance2.0爆火出圈，接过了“行业标杆”的接力棒。而曾经的领跑者OpenAI却在3月突然按下停止键——Sora全面关停。这款曾被视为“视频生成GPT时刻”的产品，最终倒在了经济账面前：日均1500万美元的推理成本，对比生命周期内仅约210万美元的总收入，这种严重的“成本-收益”倒挂，让先行者最终成了先烈。</p><p>Sora退场留下的真空，迅速被字节与快手填补。Seedance2.0承接了技术天花板的预期；可灵则以超6000万用户和正向毛利率，稳扎稳打地推进变现。两者共同点很明显，均为闭源模型，均在积极商业化，均在用真金白银验证AI视频的商业模式是否成立。</p><p>直到HappyHorse突然出现。它带来的冲击，不只是性能上“更强一点”。</p><p><strong>对于开发者而言，HappyHorse的开源基因意味着游戏规则的重写。</strong>一旦模型权重与推理代码全量披露，用户可以绕过高昂的API付费体系，转向自部署与深度定制。它挑战的就不再是某一款产品，而是整个闭源商业模式的底层逻辑。</p><p>换句话说，它动的是规则，而不仅仅是排名。</p><p>150亿的参数规模，意味着相对更低的推理门槛。一旦支持私有化部署，对于高频使用视频生成的工作室和营销团队而言，边际成本将随使用量增加而持续摊薄。</p><p>虽然HappyHorse尚未公测亦未公布定价，但业内已出现强烈预期，不少讨论认为其费用或仅为Seedance的一半。这种价格预期背后，折射出专业创作群体对现有闭源模型高成本压力的集体焦虑。</p><p>当然，这一切的前提是——开源真正落地。</p><p>除了开源之外，对于HappyHorse而言，真正问题在于上线后能不能赢下市场。</p><p>即梦与可灵的壁垒，除了技术本身，还有与业务场景的深度融合。在电商直播、广告投放、内容分发等场景中，视频生成能力只是插件，<strong>流量分配权与业务流闭环才是真正的护城河。</strong>HappyHorse可以赢在盲测的第一眼惊艳里，但要进入真实生产流，还有更长的路要走。</p><p>与此同时，更残酷的现实是，技术领先的“保质期”正在急剧缩短。</p><p>从去年9月至今，可灵2.5Turbo、Seedance2.0、SkyReelsV4等模型轮流登顶，几乎每月一次“新王登基”。好耶科技创始人吴杰茜曾对「AIX财经」表示，视频大模型的竞争是一场永不停歇的烧钱长跑。一旦投入强度稍有松懈，或迭代速度慢于对手，用户会毫不犹豫地倒向更新、更强的模型。“赢家通吃”的法则，迫使厂商持续加码，稍有松懈即被淘汰。</p><p>HappyHorse的出现，短期内让享受Sora退场红利的头部厂商感受到了切实压力。长期来看，它向整个行业抛出了一组更本质的拷问：<strong>开源与闭源，哪种路径能跑通长效盈利？</strong>在迭代周期以月为单位的赛道里，真正的护城河究竟是模型本身，还是那张看不见的商业分发网络？</p><p>Sora的失败证明了一件事，技术领先不能替代商业闭环。而HappyHorse的出现提醒了另一件事：在开源浪潮面前，闭源模型的定价权与壁垒，或许比想象中更加脆弱。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1702049645432","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>匿名霸榜、阿里认领，HappyHorse让谁紧张？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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}\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n匿名霸榜、阿里认领，HappyHorse让谁紧张？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-10 14:15 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jwbtS5ctiejUDnwoIG1rNA><strong>定焦One</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Seedance和可灵还睡得着吗？一匹匿名黑马，成为了AI视频圈最热的话题。近日，Artificial Analysis的视频竞技场排行榜更新。一个从未出现过的名字——HappyHorse-1.0，同时出现在四个子榜单的前两位：截至4月9日中午，文生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1378分，领先第二名Seedance2.0整整105分；图生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1411分，刷新全平台历史最高纪录。在带...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jwbtS5ctiejUDnwoIG1rNA\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c87a679ede1e23d7f01b3e330ca38448","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/jwbtS5ctiejUDnwoIG1rNA","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147448074","content_text":"Seedance和可灵还睡得着吗？一匹匿名黑马，成为了AI视频圈最热的话题。近日，Artificial Analysis的视频竞技场排行榜更新。一个从未出现过的名字——HappyHorse-1.0，同时出现在四个子榜单的前两位：截至4月9日中午，文生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1378分，领先第二名Seedance2.0整整105分；图生视频（无音频）赛道Elo1411分，刷新全平台历史最高纪录。在带音频的赛道上，它以1分和2分的微弱优势与Seedance 2.0并驾齐驱。图源 / Artificial Analysis没有发布会，没有任何公司背书，这匹黑马在短时间内完成了从零到双榜第一的跨越，将此前稳坐榜首数月的字节跳动Seedance2.0拉下了王座。在它的模型名称旁边，只有四个字：“即将推出”。这匹马，还没有真正跑起来。直到4月10日，阿里官宣它来自ATH旗下创新事业部。接下来，HappyHorse会给行业带来什么？01.HappyHorse的第一，含金量如何？要理解HappyHorse的真实水平，需先拆解它在Artificial Analysis（以下简称“AA”）不同榜单上的得分情况。AA视频竞技场设四大核心赛道：文生视频（无音频）、图生视频（无音频）、文生视频（带音频）、图生视频（带音频）。截至4月9日的最新数据，在纯画质维度，HappyHorse已经建立统治地位；但一旦进入音画融合，它的领先优势并没有那么明显。在文生视频（无声）赛道，HappyHorse斩获1378分，领先第二名字节跳动Seedance2.0 105 分。在Elo体系中，超过百分的差距意味着用户在盲测中几乎呈现“一边倒”的偏好。而在图生视频（无声）赛道，它跑出的1411分更是刷新了平台历史记录。对于追求极致运镜与画面质感的创作者而言，这匹马目前就是行业天花板。然而，一旦加入音频维度，战局瞬间反转。HappyHorse与Seedance2.0的分差收缩至1-2分，几乎可以忽略不计。这也说明，在音画同步、音频质量及语义对齐层面，HappyHorse并未实现大幅超越，双方仍处于同一技术水平线。结合社交媒体上的技术拆解与用户反馈，HappyHorse的优势大致可以归结为两个方向。其一是架构层面的统一建模路径：多个信源指出，它采用约150亿参数规模的纯自注意力单流Transformer，将文本、视频与音频token放入同一序列进行联合建模，这种方式区别于常见的“视频生成+音频后处理”的拼接方案，使声音与画面在生成之初就处于同一语义空间，从而在口播与人物场景中呈现出更自然的同步效果。其二是对人像场景的针对性优化：根据公开信息，多位参与AA盲测的用户反馈，其人物面部纹理更加细腻、镜头切换更为流畅，在复杂提示词下的人物一致性表现也更稳定，一位用户在连续对比Pyramid-Flow、Veo 3.1 Lite与PixVerse V6后甚至表示“只要出现HappyHorse基本都会选它”。而这一主观体验恰好与Elo高分形成呼应。在AA的评测样本中，人像与口播类内容占比超过60%，使得这一局部优势被持续放大，并最终体现在整体排名上。但高分并不意味着全能，社交媒体上的批评声同样不少。不少用户指出，已经发布的视频中水体抖动细节不自然、快速运动中的条纹物体崩坏以及在大屏显示下的画质劣化等问题。这些缺陷在无音频赛道的高分掩盖下往往被忽略，但在影视级应用中却是致命伤。一位AIGC导演告诉「AIX财经」，从流出的片段看，它的感官很接近Seedance2.0，真实度不错，但剧烈运动时的“AI感”依然浓重。X用户daniel.dmai更是直言不讳：“别把排名太当回事。当HappyHorse碰到的都是些旧模型时，大家自然会选那个看起来更顺眼的。它跟 Seedance2.0比还差得远。”这种分歧，正好指向Elo盲测机制的优势与局限。在AA评测中，用户先提交提示词或参考图像，系统调用两个模型生成结果并进行匿名展示，用户在不知模型来源的情况下进行选择，所有投票被纳入类似国际象棋排名的Elo系统，根据胜负关系动态调整分数，从而得到最终排名。作为AI视频领域最具公信力的评测体系之一，Artificial Analysis的权威性正是来自于这套能够捕捉用户真实偏好的游戏规则。HappyHorse的高分是超过9000次真实用户盲选结果，比任何实验室跑出来的技术指标都更接近真实用户感受。但其局限同样明显。首先，样本分布并非均衡，人像与口播类内容占比过高，使得在该场景中表现突出的模型更容易获得高分。另外，“刷榜”风险同样存在。有研究指出，Elo评分系统在特定情况下，可能通过数学变换掩盖底层数据的不确定性，从而影响评分。因此，榜单高分不等于实际应用中的完美表现。在实际项目中，高分辨率下细节的稳定性、长时间视频的连贯性等，都是榜单盲测难以覆盖的。更需要强调的是，目前除了官方榜单与有限的外部样本外，HappyHorse尚未经过充分的第三方使用与验证。这匹“匿名快马”的真实速度与能力，需等模型真正披露后才会揭晓。02.这匹马来自哪里？随着HappyHorse霸榜，寻找这匹马的“主人”成了本周AI圈最热闹的猜谜游戏。目前流传最广的线索，主要来自两个方向。第一条线索来自技术侧的逐项对比。有开发者将HappyHorse在榜单中的公开基准表现，与已知模型逐项对比，试图通过“能力特征”反推其来源。X用户Vigo Zhao的比对结果指向一个高度重合的对象——daVinci-MagiHuman。视觉质量4.80、文本对齐4.18、物理一致性4.52、语音字错率14.60%，四项核心指标几乎一一对应。与此同时，两者在官网架构描述、演示视频风格上的相似性，也让这一猜测进一步增强。公开信息显示，daVinci-MagiHuman由上海创智学院（SII）生成式人工智能研究实验室（GAIR）与AI初创公司Sand.ai联合研发，已于今年3月在GitHub开源。如果这一链条成立，那么HappyHorse并非“横空出世”，而是一次技术复用。相比于技术比对，第二条线索更具戏剧性，它指向了一个名字——张迪。多个信源将HappyHorse与张迪联系在一起。公开信息显示，张迪在2010年毕业于上海交大后加入阿里，在阿里妈妈体系内长期负责大数据与机器学习架构。2020年，他转投快手，担任技术副总裁，主导搭建可灵大模型体系，并推出可灵1.0 / 2.0视频生成模型，被业内称为“可灵之父”。2025年短暂加入B站后，又在同年回归阿里，出任淘天集团未来生活实验室负责人。如果传闻属实，时间线在这里变得耐人寻味。张迪回归阿里约5个月后，HappyHorse登顶，这意味着一支刚刚重组的团队，在半年内就用一款更轻量、更高效的模型实现了对行业头部的“反杀”。这是技术能力的体现，也意味着人才流动正在重新塑造竞争格局。「AIX财经」向阿里相关人员求证，对方回复“这个事情我们不太了解”。但资本市场已先行一步。消息发酵当天，阿里巴巴港股一度上涨超过 7%。直到4月10日，阿里巴巴方面表示，HappyHorse是阿里ATH旗下创新事业部郑波团队研发的模型，目前处于内测，会于近期开放API。郑波是阿里副总裁，于2017年9月加入，历任淘宝搜推算法负责人、阿里妈妈CTO、淘天集团算法技术负责人。不过，HappyHorse的出场方式本身，或许比“它是谁”更重要。从命名到发布路径，它都带有明显的“设计痕迹”。2026年是农历马年，“HappyHorse”本身藏着马年梗；官方支持语言中将普通话与粤语并列，也进一步强化了其出自亚洲团队的可能性。更关键的是，它选择的不是发布会，而是榜单，不是讲故事，而是直接给结果。这一策略并非孤例。今年2月，神秘模型Pony Alpha在OpenRouter平台上线时，同样没有任何背景信息，却迅速引发行业“猜爹”，最终被证实为智谱AI的GLM-5。路径几乎完全一致：匿名上线-榜单出圈-身份揭晓。先盲测，再发布——正在成为一种可复制的行业打法。把模型丢进第三方评测平台，剥离品牌溢价，只拼性价比，让用户用鼠标投票。如果跑出好成绩，自然引发行业关注和媒体报道。这种策略特别适合资源有限但技术尖端的亚洲团队。不用砸钱做营销，只需要一个足够好的模型和一个足够公信的评测平台。HappyHorse的参数规模约150亿，并不算当前视频模型中的“巨无霸”，Seedance2.0的体量普遍被认为更大，但它通过架构设计与评测场景的精准匹配，实现了“以小博大”的效果。但这种策略也有短板。当用户不知道模型来自哪里时，评价标准被压缩到最单一的维度——好不好用。一旦身份揭晓、产品开放，用户的判断会迅速叠加品牌、稳定性、成本与可控性等因素，预期也会随之抬升。如果实际体验无法支撑这种预期，热度往往会迅速回落。Pony Alpha在身份确认后的关注度明显低于匿名阶段，正是一个典型例子。因此，与其说HappyHorse的悬念在于“它是谁”，不如说在于当这匹马真正亮相之后，它还能不能跑出现在这样的速度。03.“快乐马”让谁不快乐？如果把时间线拉长，AI视频赛道正处于一场剧烈的重构之中。2026年初，字节跳动的Seedance2.0爆火出圈，接过了“行业标杆”的接力棒。而曾经的领跑者OpenAI却在3月突然按下停止键——Sora全面关停。这款曾被视为“视频生成GPT时刻”的产品，最终倒在了经济账面前：日均1500万美元的推理成本，对比生命周期内仅约210万美元的总收入，这种严重的“成本-收益”倒挂，让先行者最终成了先烈。Sora退场留下的真空，迅速被字节与快手填补。Seedance2.0承接了技术天花板的预期；可灵则以超6000万用户和正向毛利率，稳扎稳打地推进变现。两者共同点很明显，均为闭源模型，均在积极商业化，均在用真金白银验证AI视频的商业模式是否成立。直到HappyHorse突然出现。它带来的冲击，不只是性能上“更强一点”。对于开发者而言，HappyHorse的开源基因意味着游戏规则的重写。一旦模型权重与推理代码全量披露，用户可以绕过高昂的API付费体系，转向自部署与深度定制。它挑战的就不再是某一款产品，而是整个闭源商业模式的底层逻辑。换句话说，它动的是规则，而不仅仅是排名。150亿的参数规模，意味着相对更低的推理门槛。一旦支持私有化部署，对于高频使用视频生成的工作室和营销团队而言，边际成本将随使用量增加而持续摊薄。虽然HappyHorse尚未公测亦未公布定价，但业内已出现强烈预期，不少讨论认为其费用或仅为Seedance的一半。这种价格预期背后，折射出专业创作群体对现有闭源模型高成本压力的集体焦虑。当然，这一切的前提是——开源真正落地。除了开源之外，对于HappyHorse而言，真正问题在于上线后能不能赢下市场。即梦与可灵的壁垒，除了技术本身，还有与业务场景的深度融合。在电商直播、广告投放、内容分发等场景中，视频生成能力只是插件，流量分配权与业务流闭环才是真正的护城河。HappyHorse可以赢在盲测的第一眼惊艳里，但要进入真实生产流，还有更长的路要走。与此同时，更残酷的现实是，技术领先的“保质期”正在急剧缩短。从去年9月至今，可灵2.5Turbo、Seedance2.0、SkyReelsV4等模型轮流登顶，几乎每月一次“新王登基”。好耶科技创始人吴杰茜曾对「AIX财经」表示，视频大模型的竞争是一场永不停歇的烧钱长跑。一旦投入强度稍有松懈，或迭代速度慢于对手，用户会毫不犹豫地倒向更新、更强的模型。“赢家通吃”的法则，迫使厂商持续加码，稍有松懈即被淘汰。HappyHorse的出现，短期内让享受Sora退场红利的头部厂商感受到了切实压力。长期来看，它向整个行业抛出了一组更本质的拷问：开源与闭源，哪种路径能跑通长效盈利？在迭代周期以月为单位的赛道里，真正的护城河究竟是模型本身，还是那张看不见的商业分发网络？Sora的失败证明了一件事，技术领先不能替代商业闭环。而HappyHorse的出现提醒了另一件事：在开源浪潮面前，闭源模型的定价权与壁垒，或许比想象中更加脆弱。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":545696465854928,"gmtCreate":1774236111124,"gmtModify":1774236113766,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没有用了，AI泡沫破裂了","listText":"没有用了，AI泡沫破裂了","text":"没有用了，AI泡沫破裂了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545696465854928","repostId":"1156954131","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1156954131","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1774235943,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156954131?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-23 11:19","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"阿里明日或将发布重要芯片产品","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156954131","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"$阿里巴巴(BABA)$达摩院明日或将发布重要芯片产品，或直指今年爆发的AI Agent算力需求。公开信息显示，达摩院明日将在上海举行年度2026玄铁RISC-V生态大会，去年曾发布行业内首款服务器级RISC-V CPU。（界面）","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>达摩院明日或将发布重要芯片产品，或直指今年爆发的AI Agent算力需求。公开信息显示，达摩院明日将在上海举行年度2026玄铁RISC-V生态大会，去年曾发布行业内首款服务器级RISC-V CPU。（界面）</p><p>阿里港股股价一度快速拉升。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>阿里明日或将发布重要芯片产品</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>达摩院明日或将发布重要芯片产品，或直指今年爆发的AI Agent算力需求。公开信息显示，达摩院明日将在上海举行年度2026玄铁RISC-V生态大会，去年曾发布行业内首款服务器级RISC-V CPU。（界面）</p><p>阿里港股股价一度快速拉升。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"LU0106959298.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY FUND - EMERGING MARKETS SUSTAINABLE LEADERS (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1242518857.USD":"FULLERTON LUX FUNDS - ASIA ABSOLUTE ALPHA \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0821914370.USD":"贝莱德亚洲成长领袖A2","BK4122":"互联网与直销零售","BK4575":"芯片概念","LU0651947912.USD":"BGF EMERGING MARKETS EQUITY INCOME \"A5G\" (USD) INC","BK4579":"人工智能","BK4614":"Manus概念股","LU0328353924.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - GLOBAL EMERGING MARKETS OPPORTUNITY (USD) \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU0949170772.SGD":"Blackrock Global Equity Income A6 SGD-H","LU1003077747.HKD":"BGF GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME \"A6\" (HKDHDG) INC","IE00BF5LJ272.USD":"Legg Mason Martin Currie - Global Emerging Markets A Acc 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15:43","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"百度AI算力、文件存储等产品涨价，最高达30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174285115","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"预计于4月18日正式生效。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>3月18日周三，百度智能云发布AI算力、存储等产品调价公告。<strong>AI算力相关产品服务：上调约5%-30%，并行文件存储等：上调约30%。</strong>调价自2026年4月18日 00:00（北京时间） 起执行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdaac200d5c58a28e098c049224398b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"843\"/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>百度AI算力、文件存储等产品涨价，最高达30%</title>\n<style 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15:43</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>3月18日周三，百度智能云发布AI算力、存储等产品调价公告。<strong>AI算力相关产品服务：上调约5%-30%，并行文件存储等：上调约30%。</strong>调价自2026年4月18日 00:00（北京时间） 起执行。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0bdaac200d5c58a28e098c049224398b\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1920\" tg-height=\"843\"/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0cb3c6c3c55603d00a14ee3389850b7f","relate_stocks":{"09888":"百度集团-SW","BIDU":"百度"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174285115","content_text":"3月18日周三，百度智能云发布AI算力、存储等产品调价公告。AI算力相关产品服务：上调约5%-30%，并行文件存储等：上调约30%。调价自2026年4月18日 00:00（北京时间） 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19:01","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴将发表讲话","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117075369","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"据新华社消息，伊朗媒体9日报道，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴几小时后将首次向伊朗民众发表讲话。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社消息，伊朗媒体9日报道，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴几小时后将首次向伊朗民众发表讲话。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴将发表讲话</title>\n<style 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19:01</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>据新华社消息，伊朗媒体9日报道，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴几小时后将首次向伊朗民众发表讲话。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3077a1d80042aadb42adc63ba63b4208","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117075369","content_text":"据新华社消息，伊朗媒体9日报道，伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴几小时后将首次向伊朗民众发表讲话。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ESmain":2,"NQmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2855,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537507841831312,"gmtCreate":1772248457347,"gmtModify":1772248460080,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"讲故事已经不行了！AI不赚钱只有芯片赚钱！","listText":"讲故事已经不行了！AI不赚钱只有芯片赚钱！","text":"讲故事已经不行了！AI不赚钱只有芯片赚钱！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537507841831312","repostId":"1174813257","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535051135866336,"gmtCreate":1771648636376,"gmtModify":1771648638609,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"我买了put","listText":"我买了put","text":"我买了put","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535051135866336","repostId":"1175131086","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175131086","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771465200,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175131086?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-19 09:40","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"财报前瞻｜英伟达Q4放榜在即！四大维度决定业绩成色与长期估值，高盛、瑞银预计将大超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175131086","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"英伟达将于美东时间2月25日盘后发布2026财年第四季度财报。此前英伟达在CES展上披露，Rubin已进入生产阶段，预计将在2026年下半年逐步爬坡。本季度财报中，相关客户的需求反馈及营收贡献细节，将成为市场判断英伟达需求韧性的重要依据。指出两大因素将支撑英伟达Q4业绩瑞银将英伟达目标价从235美元上调至245美元，并重申“买入”评级。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>英伟达将于美东时间2月25日盘后发布2026财年第四季度财报。在当前AI军备竞赛愈演愈烈、市场对资本支出泡沫议论纷纷的背景下，这份财报不仅是简单的业绩检验，更被视为全球AI热潮能否持续的核心风向标。</p><p>根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，英伟达2026财年第四季度营收有望达到610.8亿美元，同比增长60.58%；每股收益（EPS）预计为1.52美元，同比增幅达80.66%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/744ba34f0c89e5b7b4f645f564b97a01\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1086557954\">上季度业绩回顾</h2><p>英伟达三季度营业收入570.1亿美元，同比增长约62%，分析师预期551.9亿美元，英伟达自身指引529.2亿至550.8亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度非GAAP口径下调整后的每股收益（EPS）为1.30美元，同比增长60%，分析师预期1.26美元，前一季度同比增长54%；三季度调整后毛利率为73.6%，同比下降1.4个百分点，分析师预期74.0%，英伟达指引为73%至74%，前一季度为72.7%、同比下降3个百分点。</p><p>三季度数据中心营收512亿美元，同比增长66%，分析师预期为493.4亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度游戏和AI PC业务营收43亿美元，同比增长30%，分析师预期为44.2亿美元，前一季度同比增长49%；三季度专业可视化营收7.6亿美元，同比增长56%，分析师预期为6.128亿美元，前一季度同比增长32%；三季度汽车和机器人业务营收5.92亿美元，同比增长32%，分析师预期为6.209亿美元，前一季度同比增长69%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9869718c5da11b4555259beb69afe79\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3842041188\" style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度核心看点</h2><p>相较于单纯的营收、利润数据，本季度财报的核心看点集中在产品进展、市场增量、未来指引三大层面，具体可拆解为四大关键维度，这也是决定英伟达股价后续走势及长期估值的核心变量。</p><h3 id=\"id_2344897205\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）Blackwell架构芯片：产能与营收贡献成核心引擎</h3><p>作为英伟达“史上最强大的AI芯片”，Blackwell架构芯片推理速度较上一代提升25倍，自推出以来订单持续火爆，已排满2026年全年，总金额高达5000亿美元，目前已占英伟达数据中心业务营收的三分之二，成为拉动业绩增长的核心动力。</p><p>本季度财报中，市场将重点关注两大关键点：一是产能爬坡速度，尤其是2026财年全年出货量能否达到预期的610万颗，这将直接反映台积电CoWoS封装产能瓶颈的缓解情况，若出货量超预期，将显著提振市场信心；二是营收贡献，瑞银明确预测，Blackwell芯片本季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为业绩超预期的核心支撑，其实际营收占比将直接决定Q4业绩的“天花板”。此外，Blackwell芯片的成本控制情况也需重点关注，若成本上行幅度超出预期，可能导致毛利率小幅下滑，引发市场对盈利能力的担忧。</p><h3 id=\"id_3234509430\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）Rubin新品进展：中长期增长的关键伏笔</h3><p>Rubin作为英伟达最新一代架构芯片，被视为支撑公司未来2-3年增长的核心产品，也是市场关注的中长期焦点。此前英伟达在CES展上披露，Rubin已进入生产阶段，预计将在2026年下半年逐步爬坡。</p><p>本季度财报及后续业绩电话会中，市场将重点关注Rubin芯片的最新进展：一是量产节奏是否符合预期，高盛预计该芯片将在Q4进入放量阶段，其放量速度将直接决定英伟达2027财年的增长动能；二是客户订单情况，尤其是超大规模云厂商及主权国家的意向订单，将印证Rubin芯片的市场认可度；三是技术迭代细节，是否有新的性能突破或成本优化，将影响市场对其长期竞争力的判断。</p><h3 id=\"id_3297617513\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（三）市场增量：中国市场与非超大规模客户的贡献</h3><p>除了核心的超大规模云厂商需求外，中国市场及非超大规模客户的增量的需求，将成为本季度财报的重要亮点，也是支撑业绩超预期的潜在动力。</p><p>中国市场方面，此前媒体报道显示，中国已批准英伟达H200芯片的进口，尽管细节可能存在变化，但多数机构预计，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等国内科技巨头将逐步启动采购，为英伟达带来新的营收增量。本季度财报中，市场将重点关注中国市场的营收占比及环比增长情况，若增量显著，将进一步增厚公司营收及EPS表现。据调研数据显示，国内头部云厂商、大模型企业2026年对英伟达高端芯片的意向订单超200万颗，但目前英伟达库存仅70万颗，供需缺口显著，也预示着中国市场的长期增长潜力。</p><p>非超大规模客户方面，OpenAI计划2026年下半年起逐步部署英伟达相关产品，Anthropic已将2026年营收预期上调20%，同时主权国家的AI部署需求保持稳健，这些客户已成为英伟达的重要增长增量。本季度财报中，相关客户的需求反馈及营收贡献细节，将成为市场判断英伟达需求韧性的重要依据。</p><h3 id=\"id_844904608\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（四）2027财年指引：收入可见度决定长期估值</h3><p>当前华尔街对英伟达的投资叙事，已从“季度业绩超预期”转向“2027财年收入可见性”的溢价评估阶段，因此本季度财报中，管理层对2027财年的业绩指引，将成为影响股价长期走势的核心变量。</p><p>市场普遍预期，英伟达将给出强劲的2027财年Q1营收指引，其中瑞银预测指引金额将达760亿美元，远超市场普遍预期的740亿-750亿美元区间；高盛则预测2027财年Q1营收将达768.4亿美元，EPS达1.80美元，均超出市场预期8%以上。此外，管理层对2027财年全年营收增速、毛利率目标、Blackwell及Rubin芯片的全年出货预期等表述，将直接影响市场对英伟达中长期盈利前景的判断，若指引超出预期，将显著提振股价，进一步打开估值空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_2485025134\" style=\"text-align: left;\">投行观点</h2><h3 id=\"id_923258907\">高盛：预测英伟达Q4业绩碾压市场预期！指出需求将持续高景气</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛近期发布研究报告，指出英伟达的核心投资叙事已经跨越了单纯的季度业绩“超预期与上修”阶段，转而进入了一个以“2027年收入可见性”为核心的溢价评估阶段。在报告中，高盛对英伟达业绩的多个核心指标预测均超过彭博预期：预计26Q4营收为673亿美元，超出市场一致预期约3%；同期每股收益为1.59美元，超出市场一致预期约5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，英伟达的强劲业绩并非建立在利润率大幅扩张的激进假设之上，即成本端的变动比例可能并不大；业绩增长更多依靠真实、强劲的市场需求，并且这种增长更具可持续性。高盛进一步指出，英伟达26财年的业绩预期上行空间已基本反映在当前股价中，后续股价能否实现超预期表现，核心将取决于2027财年的收入可见性此外，高盛还在报告中表示，英伟达2026年上半年还将迎来两大关键催化：一是3月份英伟达GPU技术大会上的新产品发布，二是基于英伟达最新产品训练的全新语言大模型推出，这两大事件有望进一步提振市场情绪，投资者可关注两大市场的后续影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_2238586251\">瑞银：重申买入评级！指出两大因素将支撑英伟达Q4业绩</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银将英伟达目标价从235美元上调至245美元，并重申“买入”评级。瑞银分析师蒂莫西.阿库里表示：“尽管股价表现不温不火，且管理层似乎对围绕增长与利润率可持续性的普遍质疑感到沮丧，但供应链信号仍显乐观，再加上我们即将在下月迎来GTC大会，此次财报的背景基调显得积极。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，瑞银对英伟达业绩的乐观判断主要基于两方面支撑：一是通过对亚洲供应链1月份出口数据的分析，自动数据处理相关设备在传统淡季实现逆势增长，直接体现全球数据中心对AI基础设施的旺盛需求；其二，英伟达新一代Blackwell架构芯片产能正加速扩张，瑞银预计该系列产品在第四季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为拉动业绩超预期的核心增长因素。</p><h2 id=\"id_765316502\" style=\"text-align: left;\">总结：业绩大概率超预期，长期聚焦增长确定性</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达2026财年Q4业绩大概率延续高增长态势，Blackwell芯片产能释放、台积电营收印证的需求韧性，以及机构普遍看涨的预期，为业绩超预期奠定了坚实基础。本季度财报的核心意义，不仅在于验证短期业绩韧性，更在于通过Blackwell、Rubin的产品进展、中国市场增量及2027财年指引，消除市场对AI需求可持续性的担忧，推动股价突破高位震荡格局。</p><p>对于投资者而言，可重点关注三大核心逻辑：一是短期业绩是否超预期，尤其是营收、EPS及毛利率的实际表现；二是中期增长动能，即Blackwell产能爬坡速度及Rubin新品进展；三是长期估值支撑，即2027财年收入可见度及市场需求的可持续性。此外，3月份英伟达GPU技术大会（GTC）的新产品发布，以及基于其最新芯片训练的全新大语言模型推出，将成为后续股价的重要催化剂，值得持续关注。</p><p>总体而言，英伟达作为AI基础设施的绝对龙头，其长期增长逻辑未发生根本性变化，Q4财报有望成为其股价反弹的重要契机，而中长期表现则取决于产品迭代速度、市场需求韧性及竞争格局的演变。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>财报前瞻｜英伟达Q4放榜在即！四大维度决定业绩成色与长期估值，高盛、瑞银预计将大超预期</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n财报前瞻｜英伟达Q4放榜在即！四大维度决定业绩成色与长期估值，高盛、瑞银预计将大超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-19 09:40</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>英伟达将于美东时间2月25日盘后发布2026财年第四季度财报。在当前AI军备竞赛愈演愈烈、市场对资本支出泡沫议论纷纷的背景下，这份财报不仅是简单的业绩检验，更被视为全球AI热潮能否持续的核心风向标。</p><p>根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，英伟达2026财年第四季度营收有望达到610.8亿美元，同比增长60.58%；每股收益（EPS）预计为1.52美元，同比增幅达80.66%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/744ba34f0c89e5b7b4f645f564b97a01\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1179\" tg-height=\"639\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_1086557954\">上季度业绩回顾</h2><p>英伟达三季度营业收入570.1亿美元，同比增长约62%，分析师预期551.9亿美元，英伟达自身指引529.2亿至550.8亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度非GAAP口径下调整后的每股收益（EPS）为1.30美元，同比增长60%，分析师预期1.26美元，前一季度同比增长54%；三季度调整后毛利率为73.6%，同比下降1.4个百分点，分析师预期74.0%，英伟达指引为73%至74%，前一季度为72.7%、同比下降3个百分点。</p><p>三季度数据中心营收512亿美元，同比增长66%，分析师预期为493.4亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度游戏和AI PC业务营收43亿美元，同比增长30%，分析师预期为44.2亿美元，前一季度同比增长49%；三季度专业可视化营收7.6亿美元，同比增长56%，分析师预期为6.128亿美元，前一季度同比增长32%；三季度汽车和机器人业务营收5.92亿美元，同比增长32%，分析师预期为6.209亿美元，前一季度同比增长69%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9869718c5da11b4555259beb69afe79\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1438\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_3842041188\" style=\"text-align: left;\">本季度核心看点</h2><p>相较于单纯的营收、利润数据，本季度财报的核心看点集中在产品进展、市场增量、未来指引三大层面，具体可拆解为四大关键维度，这也是决定英伟达股价后续走势及长期估值的核心变量。</p><h3 id=\"id_2344897205\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（一）Blackwell架构芯片：产能与营收贡献成核心引擎</h3><p>作为英伟达“史上最强大的AI芯片”，Blackwell架构芯片推理速度较上一代提升25倍，自推出以来订单持续火爆，已排满2026年全年，总金额高达5000亿美元，目前已占英伟达数据中心业务营收的三分之二，成为拉动业绩增长的核心动力。</p><p>本季度财报中，市场将重点关注两大关键点：一是产能爬坡速度，尤其是2026财年全年出货量能否达到预期的610万颗，这将直接反映台积电CoWoS封装产能瓶颈的缓解情况，若出货量超预期，将显著提振市场信心；二是营收贡献，瑞银明确预测，Blackwell芯片本季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为业绩超预期的核心支撑，其实际营收占比将直接决定Q4业绩的“天花板”。此外，Blackwell芯片的成本控制情况也需重点关注，若成本上行幅度超出预期，可能导致毛利率小幅下滑，引发市场对盈利能力的担忧。</p><h3 id=\"id_3234509430\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（二）Rubin新品进展：中长期增长的关键伏笔</h3><p>Rubin作为英伟达最新一代架构芯片，被视为支撑公司未来2-3年增长的核心产品，也是市场关注的中长期焦点。此前英伟达在CES展上披露，Rubin已进入生产阶段，预计将在2026年下半年逐步爬坡。</p><p>本季度财报及后续业绩电话会中，市场将重点关注Rubin芯片的最新进展：一是量产节奏是否符合预期，高盛预计该芯片将在Q4进入放量阶段，其放量速度将直接决定英伟达2027财年的增长动能；二是客户订单情况，尤其是超大规模云厂商及主权国家的意向订单，将印证Rubin芯片的市场认可度；三是技术迭代细节，是否有新的性能突破或成本优化，将影响市场对其长期竞争力的判断。</p><h3 id=\"id_3297617513\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（三）市场增量：中国市场与非超大规模客户的贡献</h3><p>除了核心的超大规模云厂商需求外，中国市场及非超大规模客户的增量的需求，将成为本季度财报的重要亮点，也是支撑业绩超预期的潜在动力。</p><p>中国市场方面，此前媒体报道显示，中国已批准英伟达H200芯片的进口，尽管细节可能存在变化，但多数机构预计，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等国内科技巨头将逐步启动采购，为英伟达带来新的营收增量。本季度财报中，市场将重点关注中国市场的营收占比及环比增长情况，若增量显著，将进一步增厚公司营收及EPS表现。据调研数据显示，国内头部云厂商、大模型企业2026年对英伟达高端芯片的意向订单超200万颗，但目前英伟达库存仅70万颗，供需缺口显著，也预示着中国市场的长期增长潜力。</p><p>非超大规模客户方面，OpenAI计划2026年下半年起逐步部署英伟达相关产品，Anthropic已将2026年营收预期上调20%，同时主权国家的AI部署需求保持稳健，这些客户已成为英伟达的重要增长增量。本季度财报中，相关客户的需求反馈及营收贡献细节，将成为市场判断英伟达需求韧性的重要依据。</p><h3 id=\"id_844904608\" style=\"text-align: left;\">（四）2027财年指引：收入可见度决定长期估值</h3><p>当前华尔街对英伟达的投资叙事，已从“季度业绩超预期”转向“2027财年收入可见性”的溢价评估阶段，因此本季度财报中，管理层对2027财年的业绩指引，将成为影响股价长期走势的核心变量。</p><p>市场普遍预期，英伟达将给出强劲的2027财年Q1营收指引，其中瑞银预测指引金额将达760亿美元，远超市场普遍预期的740亿-750亿美元区间；高盛则预测2027财年Q1营收将达768.4亿美元，EPS达1.80美元，均超出市场预期8%以上。此外，管理层对2027财年全年营收增速、毛利率目标、Blackwell及Rubin芯片的全年出货预期等表述，将直接影响市场对英伟达中长期盈利前景的判断，若指引超出预期，将显著提振股价，进一步打开估值空间。</p><h2 id=\"id_2485025134\" style=\"text-align: left;\">投行观点</h2><h3 id=\"id_923258907\">高盛：预测英伟达Q4业绩碾压市场预期！指出需求将持续高景气</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛近期发布研究报告，指出英伟达的核心投资叙事已经跨越了单纯的季度业绩“超预期与上修”阶段，转而进入了一个以“2027年收入可见性”为核心的溢价评估阶段。在报告中，高盛对英伟达业绩的多个核心指标预测均超过彭博预期：预计26Q4营收为673亿美元，超出市场一致预期约3%；同期每股收益为1.59美元，超出市场一致预期约5%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，英伟达的强劲业绩并非建立在利润率大幅扩张的激进假设之上，即成本端的变动比例可能并不大；业绩增长更多依靠真实、强劲的市场需求，并且这种增长更具可持续性。高盛进一步指出，英伟达26财年的业绩预期上行空间已基本反映在当前股价中，后续股价能否实现超预期表现，核心将取决于2027财年的收入可见性此外，高盛还在报告中表示，英伟达2026年上半年还将迎来两大关键催化：一是3月份英伟达GPU技术大会上的新产品发布，二是基于英伟达最新产品训练的全新语言大模型推出，这两大事件有望进一步提振市场情绪，投资者可关注两大市场的后续影响。</p><h3 id=\"id_2238586251\">瑞银：重申买入评级！指出两大因素将支撑英伟达Q4业绩</h3><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">瑞银将英伟达目标价从235美元上调至245美元，并重申“买入”评级。瑞银分析师蒂莫西.阿库里表示：“尽管股价表现不温不火，且管理层似乎对围绕增长与利润率可持续性的普遍质疑感到沮丧，但供应链信号仍显乐观，再加上我们即将在下月迎来GTC大会，此次财报的背景基调显得积极。”</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，瑞银对英伟达业绩的乐观判断主要基于两方面支撑：一是通过对亚洲供应链1月份出口数据的分析，自动数据处理相关设备在传统淡季实现逆势增长，直接体现全球数据中心对AI基础设施的旺盛需求；其二，英伟达新一代Blackwell架构芯片产能正加速扩张，瑞银预计该系列产品在第四季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为拉动业绩超预期的核心增长因素。</p><h2 id=\"id_765316502\" style=\"text-align: left;\">总结：业绩大概率超预期，长期聚焦增长确定性</h2><p>综合来看，英伟达2026财年Q4业绩大概率延续高增长态势，Blackwell芯片产能释放、台积电营收印证的需求韧性，以及机构普遍看涨的预期，为业绩超预期奠定了坚实基础。本季度财报的核心意义，不仅在于验证短期业绩韧性，更在于通过Blackwell、Rubin的产品进展、中国市场增量及2027财年指引，消除市场对AI需求可持续性的担忧，推动股价突破高位震荡格局。</p><p>对于投资者而言，可重点关注三大核心逻辑：一是短期业绩是否超预期，尤其是营收、EPS及毛利率的实际表现；二是中期增长动能，即Blackwell产能爬坡速度及Rubin新品进展；三是长期估值支撑，即2027财年收入可见度及市场需求的可持续性。此外，3月份英伟达GPU技术大会（GTC）的新产品发布，以及基于其最新芯片训练的全新大语言模型推出，将成为后续股价的重要催化剂，值得持续关注。</p><p>总体而言，英伟达作为AI基础设施的绝对龙头，其长期增长逻辑未发生根本性变化，Q4财报有望成为其股价反弹的重要契机，而中长期表现则取决于产品迭代速度、市场需求韧性及竞争格局的演变。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd1f07fc1711bfde661e8db62d4a32","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175131086","content_text":"英伟达将于美东时间2月25日盘后发布2026财年第四季度财报。在当前AI军备竞赛愈演愈烈、市场对资本支出泡沫议论纷纷的背景下，这份财报不仅是简单的业绩检验，更被视为全球AI热潮能否持续的核心风向标。根据老虎国际APP数据来源预测，英伟达2026财年第四季度营收有望达到610.8亿美元，同比增长60.58%；每股收益（EPS）预计为1.52美元，同比增幅达80.66%。上季度业绩回顾英伟达三季度营业收入570.1亿美元，同比增长约62%，分析师预期551.9亿美元，英伟达自身指引529.2亿至550.8亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度非GAAP口径下调整后的每股收益（EPS）为1.30美元，同比增长60%，分析师预期1.26美元，前一季度同比增长54%；三季度调整后毛利率为73.6%，同比下降1.4个百分点，分析师预期74.0%，英伟达指引为73%至74%，前一季度为72.7%、同比下降3个百分点。三季度数据中心营收512亿美元，同比增长66%，分析师预期为493.4亿美元，前一季度同比增长56%；三季度游戏和AI PC业务营收43亿美元，同比增长30%，分析师预期为44.2亿美元，前一季度同比增长49%；三季度专业可视化营收7.6亿美元，同比增长56%，分析师预期为6.128亿美元，前一季度同比增长32%；三季度汽车和机器人业务营收5.92亿美元，同比增长32%，分析师预期为6.209亿美元，前一季度同比增长69%。本季度核心看点相较于单纯的营收、利润数据，本季度财报的核心看点集中在产品进展、市场增量、未来指引三大层面，具体可拆解为四大关键维度，这也是决定英伟达股价后续走势及长期估值的核心变量。（一）Blackwell架构芯片：产能与营收贡献成核心引擎作为英伟达“史上最强大的AI芯片”，Blackwell架构芯片推理速度较上一代提升25倍，自推出以来订单持续火爆，已排满2026年全年，总金额高达5000亿美元，目前已占英伟达数据中心业务营收的三分之二，成为拉动业绩增长的核心动力。本季度财报中，市场将重点关注两大关键点：一是产能爬坡速度，尤其是2026财年全年出货量能否达到预期的610万颗，这将直接反映台积电CoWoS封装产能瓶颈的缓解情况，若出货量超预期，将显著提振市场信心；二是营收贡献，瑞银明确预测，Blackwell芯片本季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为业绩超预期的核心支撑，其实际营收占比将直接决定Q4业绩的“天花板”。此外，Blackwell芯片的成本控制情况也需重点关注，若成本上行幅度超出预期，可能导致毛利率小幅下滑，引发市场对盈利能力的担忧。（二）Rubin新品进展：中长期增长的关键伏笔Rubin作为英伟达最新一代架构芯片，被视为支撑公司未来2-3年增长的核心产品，也是市场关注的中长期焦点。此前英伟达在CES展上披露，Rubin已进入生产阶段，预计将在2026年下半年逐步爬坡。本季度财报及后续业绩电话会中，市场将重点关注Rubin芯片的最新进展：一是量产节奏是否符合预期，高盛预计该芯片将在Q4进入放量阶段，其放量速度将直接决定英伟达2027财年的增长动能；二是客户订单情况，尤其是超大规模云厂商及主权国家的意向订单，将印证Rubin芯片的市场认可度；三是技术迭代细节，是否有新的性能突破或成本优化，将影响市场对其长期竞争力的判断。（三）市场增量：中国市场与非超大规模客户的贡献除了核心的超大规模云厂商需求外，中国市场及非超大规模客户的增量的需求，将成为本季度财报的重要亮点，也是支撑业绩超预期的潜在动力。中国市场方面，此前媒体报道显示，中国已批准英伟达H200芯片的进口，尽管细节可能存在变化，但多数机构预计，腾讯、阿里巴巴、字节跳动等国内科技巨头将逐步启动采购，为英伟达带来新的营收增量。本季度财报中，市场将重点关注中国市场的营收占比及环比增长情况，若增量显著，将进一步增厚公司营收及EPS表现。据调研数据显示，国内头部云厂商、大模型企业2026年对英伟达高端芯片的意向订单超200万颗，但目前英伟达库存仅70万颗，供需缺口显著，也预示着中国市场的长期增长潜力。非超大规模客户方面，OpenAI计划2026年下半年起逐步部署英伟达相关产品，Anthropic已将2026年营收预期上调20%，同时主权国家的AI部署需求保持稳健，这些客户已成为英伟达的重要增长增量。本季度财报中，相关客户的需求反馈及营收贡献细节，将成为市场判断英伟达需求韧性的重要依据。（四）2027财年指引：收入可见度决定长期估值当前华尔街对英伟达的投资叙事，已从“季度业绩超预期”转向“2027财年收入可见性”的溢价评估阶段，因此本季度财报中，管理层对2027财年的业绩指引，将成为影响股价长期走势的核心变量。市场普遍预期，英伟达将给出强劲的2027财年Q1营收指引，其中瑞银预测指引金额将达760亿美元，远超市场普遍预期的740亿-750亿美元区间；高盛则预测2027财年Q1营收将达768.4亿美元，EPS达1.80美元，均超出市场预期8%以上。此外，管理层对2027财年全年营收增速、毛利率目标、Blackwell及Rubin芯片的全年出货预期等表述，将直接影响市场对英伟达中长期盈利前景的判断，若指引超出预期，将显著提振股价，进一步打开估值空间。投行观点高盛：预测英伟达Q4业绩碾压市场预期！指出需求将持续高景气高盛近期发布研究报告，指出英伟达的核心投资叙事已经跨越了单纯的季度业绩“超预期与上修”阶段，转而进入了一个以“2027年收入可见性”为核心的溢价评估阶段。在报告中，高盛对英伟达业绩的多个核心指标预测均超过彭博预期：预计26Q4营收为673亿美元，超出市场一致预期约3%；同期每股收益为1.59美元，超出市场一致预期约5%。高盛认为，英伟达的强劲业绩并非建立在利润率大幅扩张的激进假设之上，即成本端的变动比例可能并不大；业绩增长更多依靠真实、强劲的市场需求，并且这种增长更具可持续性。高盛进一步指出，英伟达26财年的业绩预期上行空间已基本反映在当前股价中，后续股价能否实现超预期表现，核心将取决于2027财年的收入可见性此外，高盛还在报告中表示，英伟达2026年上半年还将迎来两大关键催化：一是3月份英伟达GPU技术大会上的新产品发布，二是基于英伟达最新产品训练的全新语言大模型推出，这两大事件有望进一步提振市场情绪，投资者可关注两大市场的后续影响。瑞银：重申买入评级！指出两大因素将支撑英伟达Q4业绩瑞银将英伟达目标价从235美元上调至245美元，并重申“买入”评级。瑞银分析师蒂莫西.阿库里表示：“尽管股价表现不温不火，且管理层似乎对围绕增长与利润率可持续性的普遍质疑感到沮丧，但供应链信号仍显乐观，再加上我们即将在下月迎来GTC大会，此次财报的背景基调显得积极。”值得注意的是，瑞银对英伟达业绩的乐观判断主要基于两方面支撑：一是通过对亚洲供应链1月份出口数据的分析，自动数据处理相关设备在传统淡季实现逆势增长，直接体现全球数据中心对AI基础设施的旺盛需求；其二，英伟达新一代Blackwell架构芯片产能正加速扩张，瑞银预计该系列产品在第四季度将贡献约90亿美元收入，成为拉动业绩超预期的核心增长因素。总结：业绩大概率超预期，长期聚焦增长确定性综合来看，英伟达2026财年Q4业绩大概率延续高增长态势，Blackwell芯片产能释放、台积电营收印证的需求韧性，以及机构普遍看涨的预期，为业绩超预期奠定了坚实基础。本季度财报的核心意义，不仅在于验证短期业绩韧性，更在于通过Blackwell、Rubin的产品进展、中国市场增量及2027财年指引，消除市场对AI需求可持续性的担忧，推动股价突破高位震荡格局。对于投资者而言，可重点关注三大核心逻辑：一是短期业绩是否超预期，尤其是营收、EPS及毛利率的实际表现；二是中期增长动能，即Blackwell产能爬坡速度及Rubin新品进展；三是长期估值支撑，即2027财年收入可见度及市场需求的可持续性。此外，3月份英伟达GPU技术大会（GTC）的新产品发布，以及基于其最新芯片训练的全新大语言模型推出，将成为后续股价的重要催化剂，值得持续关注。总体而言，英伟达作为AI基础设施的绝对龙头，其长期增长逻辑未发生根本性变化，Q4财报有望成为其股价反弹的重要契机，而中长期表现则取决于产品迭代速度、市场需求韧性及竞争格局的演变。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534755874566488,"gmtCreate":1771566798428,"gmtModify":1771566800551,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"加把劲，市值超过百度！😂","listText":"加把劲，市值超过百度！😂","text":"加把劲，市值超过百度！😂","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534755874566488","repostId":"1197225359","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1197225359","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1771573800,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1197225359?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-20 15:50","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，总市值突破3000亿港元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1197225359","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"2月20日，智谱午后涨幅扩大至近30%，成交额超23亿，市值突破2900亿港元。消息面上，据中科曙光消息，曙光SothisAI近日升级，实现智谱GLM-5、阿里Qwen3.5大模型全面接入，并进一步简化和优化企业AI平台构建与运营流程。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>2月20日，港股AI应用股走强，智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，股价最高报696港元，总市值突破3000亿港元。2月以来累计大涨206%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f48daee18b4dd783c6e6cf3ae84d1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>消息面上，据中科曙光消息，曙光SothisAI近日升级，实现智谱GLM-5、阿里Qwen3.5大模型全面接入，并进一步简化和优化企业AI平台构建与运营流程。此外，“太初元碁“完成多款国产主流开源大模型的深度适配工作，其中包括智谱GLM-5.0、阿里千问Qwen3.5-397B-A17B。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，2月12日，智谱在官方渠道宣布上调GLM Coding Plan订阅价格，涨幅“至少30%”。此前，海外云厂商于本月纷纷提价。国联民生证券表示，智谱GLM Coding Plan的涨价折射的是产业定价逻辑的改变：当推理消耗变成生产资料，模型厂商有机会把“算力稀缺”通过分层定价与订阅化产品转化为毛利与现金流。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，总市值突破3000亿港元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，总市值突破3000亿港元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-02-20 15:50</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>2月20日，港股AI应用股走强，智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，股价最高报696港元，总市值突破3000亿港元。2月以来累计大涨206%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e8f48daee18b4dd783c6e6cf3ae84d1d\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>消息面上，据中科曙光消息，曙光SothisAI近日升级，实现智谱GLM-5、阿里Qwen3.5大模型全面接入，并进一步简化和优化企业AI平台构建与运营流程。此外，“太初元碁“完成多款国产主流开源大模型的深度适配工作，其中包括智谱GLM-5.0、阿里千问Qwen3.5-397B-A17B。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">值得注意的是，2月12日，智谱在官方渠道宣布上调GLM Coding Plan订阅价格，涨幅“至少30%”。此前，海外云厂商于本月纷纷提价。国联民生证券表示，智谱GLM Coding Plan的涨价折射的是产业定价逻辑的改变：当推理消耗变成生产资料，模型厂商有机会把“算力稀缺”通过分层定价与订阅化产品转化为毛利与现金流。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c1cb237e736a4e03c939622e7b71e8e7","relate_stocks":{"02513":"智谱"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1197225359","content_text":"2月20日，港股AI应用股走强，智谱尾盘涨幅扩大至37%，股价最高报696港元，总市值突破3000亿港元。2月以来累计大涨206%。消息面上，据中科曙光消息，曙光SothisAI近日升级，实现智谱GLM-5、阿里Qwen3.5大模型全面接入，并进一步简化和优化企业AI平台构建与运营流程。此外，“太初元碁“完成多款国产主流开源大模型的深度适配工作，其中包括智谱GLM-5.0、阿里千问Qwen3.5-397B-A17B。值得注意的是，2月12日，智谱在官方渠道宣布上调GLM Coding Plan订阅价格，涨幅“至少30%”。此前，海外云厂商于本月纷纷提价。国联民生证券表示，智谱GLM Coding Plan的涨价折射的是产业定价逻辑的改变：当推理消耗变成生产资料，模型厂商有机会把“算力稀缺”通过分层定价与订阅化产品转化为毛利与现金流。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02513":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":533347049284984,"gmtCreate":1771232571439,"gmtModify":1771232574388,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"没人看了，啥用没有","listText":"没人看了，啥用没有","text":"没人看了，啥用没有","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/533347049284984","repostId":"1148657687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148657687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1771232285,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1148657687?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-02-16 16:58","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"以小胜大！千问Qwen3.5重磅发布，每百万Token仅0.8元","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148657687","media":"阿里云","summary":"2月16日，今天下午，阿里在chat.qwen.ai页面低调上线了Qwen3.5-Plus和Qwen3.5-397B-A17B两款新模型。Qwen3.5-Plus定位为Qwen3.5系列最新大语言模型，Qwen3.5-397B-A17B定位则是Qwen3.5开源系列旗舰大语言模型。两款模型均支持文本和多模态任务。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>刚刚，阿里巴巴开源全新一代大模型千问Qwen3.5-Plus，登顶全球最强开源模型。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/caca0b9d2496af9c639fe722ce994942\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"698\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该模型总参数为3970亿，激活仅170亿，以小胜大，性能超过万亿参数的Qwen3-Max模型，部署显存占用降低60%，推理效率大幅提升，最大推理吞吐量可提升至19倍。</p><p>目前，千问APP、PC端已接入Qwen3.5-Plus模型。开发者可在魔搭社区和HuggingFace下载新模型，同时可在阿里云百炼直接获取API服务（文末点击阅读原文可直接跳转）。Qwen3.5-Plus的API价格每百万Token低至0.8元。</p><p><strong>原生多模态模型</strong></p><p><strong>模型性能全方位提升</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">与前几代的千问大语言模型不同，千问3.5实现了从纯文本模型到原生多模态模型的代际跃迁。</p><p>千问3预训练在纯文本Tokens上进行，而千问3.5则基于视觉和文本混合token上预训练，并大幅新增中英文、多语言、STEM和推理等数据，让张开“眼睛”的大模型学会了更密集的世界知识和推理逻辑，以不到40%的参数量获得超万亿的Qwen3-Max基座模型的顶尖性能，在推理、编程、Agent智能体等全方位基准评估中均表现优异。</p><p>比如，千问3.5在MMLU-Pro认知能力评测中得分87.8分，超越GPT-5.2；在博士级难题GPQA测评中斩获88.4分，高于Claude 4.5；在指令遵循IFBench以76.5分刷新所有模型纪录；而在通用Agent评测BFCL-V4、搜索Agent评测Browsecomp等基准中，千问3.5表现均超越Gemini 3 Pro。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">原生多模态训练，也带来千问3.5的视觉能力飞跃：在多模态推理（MathVison）、通用视觉问答VQA（RealWorldQA）、文本识别和文件理解（CC_OCR）、空间智能（RefCOCO-avg）、视频理解（MLVU）等众多权威评测中，千问3.5均斩获最佳性能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在学科解题、任务规划与物理空间推理等任务上，千问3.5相比千问专项模型Qwen3-VL表现更好，空间定位推理和带图推理能力均大幅增强，推理分析更精细、精准；在视频理解方面，千问3.5支持长达2小时（1M token上下文）的视频直接输入，适用于长视频内容分析与摘要生成；同时，千问3.5实现了视觉理解与代码能力的原生融合，结合图搜和生图工具，可将手绘界面草图直接转为可用的前端代码，一张截图就能定位并修复UI问题，让视觉编程真正成为生产力工具。</p><p><strong>创新门控技术</strong></p><p><strong>小参数实现极致性能</strong></p><p>千问3.5性能跃升的背后，是对Transformer经典架构的重大创新突破。千问团队自研的门控技术成果，曾斩获全球AI顶会2025 NeurIPS最佳论文，该前沿技术已融入到千问3.5创新的混合架构中去，团队结合线性注意力机制与稀疏混合专家MoE模型架构，实现了397B总参数激活仅17B的极致模型效率；同时，千问3.5通过训练稳定优化以及多 token 预测等系列技术，Qwen3.5性能与Qwen3-Max模型持平，并进一步提升了推理效率：在常用的32K上下文场景中，千问3.5推理吞吐量可提升8.6倍；在256K超长上下文情况下，Qwen3.5推理吞吐量最大提升至19倍，推理效率大幅提升。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9915856b7af3ee283954fc739369849a\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"458\"/></p><p><em>千问3.5推理效率大幅提升<br/>最大吞吐量提升至19倍</em></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">千问3.5的原生多模态训练，是在阿里云AI基础设施上高效完成的。通过系列基础技术创新，千问3.5在文本、图像、视频等混合数据训练吞吐量，几近100%持平纯文本基座模型训练，大举降低了原生多模态训练的难度门槛；同时，通过设计精巧的FP8、FP32精度应用策略，在训练稳定扩展到数十万亿个token时，激活内存减少约50% ，训练还能提速10% ，进一步提升了节约了模型训练成本、提升了训练效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>Agent应用进一步突破</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能体支持扩展至百万级</strong></p><p>基于顶级视觉能力，千问3.5也实现了从Agent框架到Agent应用的新突破。</p><p>千问3.5可自主操作手机与电脑，高效完成日常任务，在移动端支持更多主流APP与指令，在PC端可处理更复杂的多步骤操作，如跨应用数据整理、自动化流程执行等，显著提升操作效率。</p><p>同时，千问团队构建了一个可扩展的Agent异步强化学习框架，端到端可加速3到5倍，并将基于插件的智能体Agent支持扩展至百万级规模。</p><p>1月15日，千问App发布全球首个消费级AI购物Agent。春节期间，千问AI购物Agent6天时间帮用户完成了1.2亿笔订单，在全球首次实现大规模真实世界任务执行和商业化验证。Agent能力大幅增强的千问3.5，将进一步打开千问APP在工作和生活中帮人办事的想象空间。</p><p>自2023年开源以来，阿里已开源400多个千问模型，覆盖全尺寸、全模态，千问全球下载量突破10亿次，单月下载量是DeepSeek、Meta、OpenAI、智谱、Kimi、MiniMax等2到8名总和，开发者基于千问开发的衍生模型超20万，是公认的全球第一开源模型，也是开发者最友好的开源大模型。</p><p>面向不同国家的AI开发者和企业的需求，千问大模型还在持续演进：千问3.5扩展支持201种语言，将词表大小从150k扩展到250K，可最高提升小语种60%的编码效率。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，不同尺寸、不同功能的千问3.5系列模型也将陆续开源发布。性能更强的旗舰模型Qwen3.5-Max不久后也将发布，敬请期待。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1726717805271","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>以小胜大！千问Qwen3.5重磅发布，每百万Token仅0.8元</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; 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width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n以小胜大！千问Qwen3.5重磅发布，每百万Token仅0.8元\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-02-16 16:58 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4NjI4MzM4MQ==&mid=2660259096&idx=1&sn=f102c621c89baae3cf64c8003e5573d9&chksm=857fbfc08bb5068545f4146d068c9b090efa850afbbdb71246de081d3333962f6cffe88731ee&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd><strong>阿里云</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>刚刚，阿里巴巴开源全新一代大模型千问Qwen3.5-Plus，登顶全球最强开源模型。该模型总参数为3970亿，激活仅170亿，以小胜大，性能超过万亿参数的Qwen3-Max模型，部署显存占用降低60%，推理效率大幅提升，最大推理吞吐量可提升至19倍。目前，千问APP、PC端已接入Qwen3.5-Plus模型。开发者可在魔搭社区和HuggingFace下载新模型，同时可在阿里云百炼直接获取API服务...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4NjI4MzM4MQ==&mid=2660259096&idx=1&sn=f102c621c89baae3cf64c8003e5573d9&chksm=857fbfc08bb5068545f4146d068c9b090efa850afbbdb71246de081d3333962f6cffe88731ee&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ddeb1f7be03fe06014ae549a8abe22","relate_stocks":{"09988":"阿里巴巴-W","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s?__biz=MzA4NjI4MzM4MQ==&mid=2660259096&idx=1&sn=f102c621c89baae3cf64c8003e5573d9&chksm=857fbfc08bb5068545f4146d068c9b090efa850afbbdb71246de081d3333962f6cffe88731ee&scene=0&xtrack=1#rd","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148657687","content_text":"刚刚，阿里巴巴开源全新一代大模型千问Qwen3.5-Plus，登顶全球最强开源模型。该模型总参数为3970亿，激活仅170亿，以小胜大，性能超过万亿参数的Qwen3-Max模型，部署显存占用降低60%，推理效率大幅提升，最大推理吞吐量可提升至19倍。目前，千问APP、PC端已接入Qwen3.5-Plus模型。开发者可在魔搭社区和HuggingFace下载新模型，同时可在阿里云百炼直接获取API服务（文末点击阅读原文可直接跳转）。Qwen3.5-Plus的API价格每百万Token低至0.8元。原生多模态模型模型性能全方位提升与前几代的千问大语言模型不同，千问3.5实现了从纯文本模型到原生多模态模型的代际跃迁。千问3预训练在纯文本Tokens上进行，而千问3.5则基于视觉和文本混合token上预训练，并大幅新增中英文、多语言、STEM和推理等数据，让张开“眼睛”的大模型学会了更密集的世界知识和推理逻辑，以不到40%的参数量获得超万亿的Qwen3-Max基座模型的顶尖性能，在推理、编程、Agent智能体等全方位基准评估中均表现优异。比如，千问3.5在MMLU-Pro认知能力评测中得分87.8分，超越GPT-5.2；在博士级难题GPQA测评中斩获88.4分，高于Claude 4.5；在指令遵循IFBench以76.5分刷新所有模型纪录；而在通用Agent评测BFCL-V4、搜索Agent评测Browsecomp等基准中，千问3.5表现均超越Gemini 3 Pro。原生多模态训练，也带来千问3.5的视觉能力飞跃：在多模态推理（MathVison）、通用视觉问答VQA（RealWorldQA）、文本识别和文件理解（CC_OCR）、空间智能（RefCOCO-avg）、视频理解（MLVU）等众多权威评测中，千问3.5均斩获最佳性能。在学科解题、任务规划与物理空间推理等任务上，千问3.5相比千问专项模型Qwen3-VL表现更好，空间定位推理和带图推理能力均大幅增强，推理分析更精细、精准；在视频理解方面，千问3.5支持长达2小时（1M token上下文）的视频直接输入，适用于长视频内容分析与摘要生成；同时，千问3.5实现了视觉理解与代码能力的原生融合，结合图搜和生图工具，可将手绘界面草图直接转为可用的前端代码，一张截图就能定位并修复UI问题，让视觉编程真正成为生产力工具。创新门控技术小参数实现极致性能千问3.5性能跃升的背后，是对Transformer经典架构的重大创新突破。千问团队自研的门控技术成果，曾斩获全球AI顶会2025 NeurIPS最佳论文，该前沿技术已融入到千问3.5创新的混合架构中去，团队结合线性注意力机制与稀疏混合专家MoE模型架构，实现了397B总参数激活仅17B的极致模型效率；同时，千问3.5通过训练稳定优化以及多 token 预测等系列技术，Qwen3.5性能与Qwen3-Max模型持平，并进一步提升了推理效率：在常用的32K上下文场景中，千问3.5推理吞吐量可提升8.6倍；在256K超长上下文情况下，Qwen3.5推理吞吐量最大提升至19倍，推理效率大幅提升。千问3.5推理效率大幅提升最大吞吐量提升至19倍千问3.5的原生多模态训练，是在阿里云AI基础设施上高效完成的。通过系列基础技术创新，千问3.5在文本、图像、视频等混合数据训练吞吐量，几近100%持平纯文本基座模型训练，大举降低了原生多模态训练的难度门槛；同时，通过设计精巧的FP8、FP32精度应用策略，在训练稳定扩展到数十万亿个token时，激活内存减少约50% ，训练还能提速10% ，进一步提升了节约了模型训练成本、提升了训练效率。Agent应用进一步突破智能体支持扩展至百万级基于顶级视觉能力，千问3.5也实现了从Agent框架到Agent应用的新突破。千问3.5可自主操作手机与电脑，高效完成日常任务，在移动端支持更多主流APP与指令，在PC端可处理更复杂的多步骤操作，如跨应用数据整理、自动化流程执行等，显著提升操作效率。同时，千问团队构建了一个可扩展的Agent异步强化学习框架，端到端可加速3到5倍，并将基于插件的智能体Agent支持扩展至百万级规模。1月15日，千问App发布全球首个消费级AI购物Agent。春节期间，千问AI购物Agent6天时间帮用户完成了1.2亿笔订单，在全球首次实现大规模真实世界任务执行和商业化验证。Agent能力大幅增强的千问3.5，将进一步打开千问APP在工作和生活中帮人办事的想象空间。自2023年开源以来，阿里已开源400多个千问模型，覆盖全尺寸、全模态，千问全球下载量突破10亿次，单月下载量是DeepSeek、Meta、OpenAI、智谱、Kimi、MiniMax等2到8名总和，开发者基于千问开发的衍生模型超20万，是公认的全球第一开源模型，也是开发者最友好的开源大模型。面向不同国家的AI开发者和企业的需求，千问大模型还在持续演进：千问3.5扩展支持201种语言，将词表大小从150k扩展到250K，可最高提升小语种60%的编码效率。此外，不同尺寸、不同功能的千问3.5系列模型也将陆续开源发布。性能更强的旗舰模型Qwen3.5-Max不久后也将发布，敬请期待。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09988":2,"BABA":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":202781957558336,"gmtCreate":1690535228097,"gmtModify":1690535234392,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"奇怪了，口袋里面都没钱了，会有接盘吗？以前是有钱不敢买，拉高有追涨，你现在拉的再高有追涨的人吗。","listText":"奇怪了，口袋里面都没钱了，会有接盘吗？以前是有钱不敢买，拉高有追涨，你现在拉的再高有追涨的人吗。","text":"奇怪了，口袋里面都没钱了，会有接盘吗？以前是有钱不敢买，拉高有追涨，你现在拉的再高有追涨的人吗。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/202781957558336","repostId":"1164631704","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4348,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3544055750866906","authorId":"3544055750866906","name":"Kaogdecs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bf00b968740573b869e26109bbbc4d5a","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3544055750866906","idStr":"3544055750866906"},"content":"哥们虽然我也空仓，但是感觉牛市真要来了，有钱人钱多啊","text":"哥们虽然我也空仓，但是感觉牛市真要来了，有钱人钱多啊","html":"哥们虽然我也空仓，但是感觉牛市真要来了，有钱人钱多啊"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":924656285,"gmtCreate":1588341059547,"gmtModify":1704367440287,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$</a>昨天盘前最高53，现在43，一天跌了20%，主力凶残！","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RCL\">$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$</a>昨天盘前最高53，现在43，一天跌了20%，主力凶残！","text":"$皇家加勒比邮轮(RCL)$昨天盘前最高53，现在43，一天跌了20%，主力凶残！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":32,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/924656285","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7837,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3499573028018910","authorId":"3499573028018910","name":"智乾未来","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/595ee11d6613dc6e08e1e6684f18e82f","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3499573028018910","idStr":"3499573028018910"},"content":"你如果这样的心态，总有一次做T你会做飞。而且不可能赚到大钱，少看盘，多看周/月线。我要是你的资金量，我直接卸载APP，3个月后再看。","text":"你如果这样的心态，总有一次做T你会做飞。而且不可能赚到大钱，少看盘，多看周/月线。我要是你的资金量，我直接卸载APP，3个月后再看。","html":"你如果这样的心态，总有一次做T你会做飞。而且不可能赚到大钱，少看盘，多看周/月线。我要是你的资金量，我直接卸载APP，3个月后再看。"},{"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"content":"我昨天有6万美金利润，今天就一万了！不知道怎么办","text":"我昨天有6万美金利润，今天就一万了！不知道怎么办","html":"我昨天有6万美金利润，今天就一万了！不知道怎么办"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":346157345,"gmtCreate":1618017048187,"gmtModify":1618019832928,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"中国烟草罚多少","listText":"中国烟草罚多少","text":"中国烟草罚多少","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":25,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/346157345","repostId":"1145816571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145816571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1618016831,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145816571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-10 09:07","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145816571","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对$阿里巴巴$集团控股有限公司在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元。","content":"<p>2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。</p><p>市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展案件分析论证；多次听取阿里巴巴集团陈述意见，保障其合法权利。本案事实清楚、证据确凿、定性准确、处理恰当、手续完备、程序合法。</p><p>经查，阿里巴巴集团在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。自2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团滥用该市场支配地位，对平台内商家提出“二选一”要求，禁止平台内商家在其他竞争性平台开店或参加促销活动，并借助市场力量、平台规则和数据、算法等技术手段，采取多种奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求执行，维持、增强自身市场力量，获取不正当竞争优势。</p><p>调查表明，<b>阿里巴巴集团实施“二选一”行为排除、限制了中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的竞争，妨碍了商品服务和资源要素自由流通，影响了平台经济创新发展，侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，构成《反垄断法》第十七条第一款第（四）项禁止“没有正当理由，限定交易相对人只能与其进行交易”的滥用市场支配地位行为</b>。</p><p>根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，<b>责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元</b>。同时，按照《行政处罚法》坚持处罚与教育相结合的原则，向阿里巴巴集团发出《行政指导书》，要求其围绕严格落实平台企业主体责任、加强内控合规管理、维护公平竞争、保护平台内商家和消费者合法权益等方面进行全面整改，并连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规报告。</p><p>【相关阅读】</p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/NW/1141772391\" target=\"_blank\">阿里巴巴发布《致客户和公众的一封信》：为商家创造更开放更公平的平台环境</a></p>","source":"highlight_wallstreetcn","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ 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#494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n罚款182.28亿！市场监管总局处罚阿里巴巴垄断行为\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-04-10 09:07 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/995418fbbbc235e75883dec898dccaa8","relate_stocks":{"BABA":"阿里巴巴","09988":"阿里巴巴-W"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3627208","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/cc96873d3d23ee6ac10685520df9c100","article_id":"1145816571","content_text":"2020年12月，市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》对阿里巴巴集团控股有限公司（以下简称阿里巴巴集团）在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场滥用市场支配地位行为立案调查。市场监管总局成立专案组，在扎实开展前期工作基础上，对阿里巴巴集团进行现场检查，调查询问相关人员，查阅复制有关文件资料，获取大量证据材料；对其他竞争性平台和平台内商家广泛开展调查取证；对本案证据材料进行深入核查和大数据分析；组织专家反复深入开展案件分析论证；多次听取阿里巴巴集团陈述意见，保障其合法权利。本案事实清楚、证据确凿、定性准确、处理恰当、手续完备、程序合法。经查，阿里巴巴集团在中国境内网络零售平台服务市场具有支配地位。自2015年以来，阿里巴巴集团滥用该市场支配地位，对平台内商家提出“二选一”要求，禁止平台内商家在其他竞争性平台开店或参加促销活动，并借助市场力量、平台规则和数据、算法等技术手段，采取多种奖惩措施保障“二选一”要求执行，维持、增强自身市场力量，获取不正当竞争优势。调查表明，阿里巴巴集团实施“二选一”行为排除、限制了中国境内网络零售平台服务市场的竞争，妨碍了商品服务和资源要素自由流通，影响了平台经济创新发展，侵害了平台内商家的合法权益，损害了消费者利益，构成《反垄断法》第十七条第一款第（四）项禁止“没有正当理由，限定交易相对人只能与其进行交易”的滥用市场支配地位行为。根据《反垄断法》第四十七条、第四十九条规定，综合考虑阿里巴巴集团违法行为的性质、程度和持续时间等因素，2021年4月10日，市场监管总局依法作出行政处罚决定，责令阿里巴巴集团停止违法行为，并处以其2019年中国境内销售额4557.12亿元4%的罚款，计182.28亿元。同时，按照《行政处罚法》坚持处罚与教育相结合的原则，向阿里巴巴集团发出《行政指导书》，要求其围绕严格落实平台企业主体责任、加强内控合规管理、维护公平竞争、保护平台内商家和消费者合法权益等方面进行全面整改，并连续三年向市场监管总局提交自查合规报告。【相关阅读】阿里巴巴发布《致客户和公众的一封信》：为商家创造更开放更公平的平台环境","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BABA":0.9,"09988":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3485728882911187","authorId":"3485728882911187","name":"申屠青竹","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/27eba484160e82091e8187ad8179e2f3","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3485728882911187","idStr":"3485728882911187"},"content":"烟草每年上交利税过万亿。。你说多少。。","text":"烟草每年上交利税过万亿。。你说多少。。","html":"烟草每年上交利税过万亿。。你说多少。。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":69878,"gmtCreate":1498608948204,"gmtModify":1704878251122,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"$Advanced 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今天股市汇市又出钱了，gjd辛苦了！我们离金融危机又进了一步，钱不留在需要的时候！现在到处撒，未来救货币钱就少了！","text":"$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$ 今天股市汇市又出钱了，gjd辛苦了！我们离金融危机又进了一步，钱不留在需要的时候！现在到处撒，未来救货币钱就少了！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296279949721680","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2356,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":279170939801824,"gmtCreate":1709178410262,"gmtModify":1709184969547,"author":{"id":"3439498180568292","authorId":"3439498180568292","name":"源自","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adf8535711666c83bb51b225d892a9b9","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3439498180568292","idStr":"3439498180568292"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/USDCNH.FOREX\">$美元/离岸人民币(USDCNH.FOREX)$</a> 人民币放水放疯了，人民币崩跌控制不住了","listText":"<a 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