eff的个人主页 - 老虎社区

eff

eff

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2017-12-15

终于回本了，请今晚爆涨！！！！！

$TOP Ships Inc(TOPS)$ 请求回本！！！

终于回本了，请今晚爆涨！！！！！

2017-12-06

冲到3.03航运要爆发了！！！！！

$Globus Maritime Limited(GLBS)$ 冲到3.05冲不要耸！！！！！！！！

冲到3.03航运要爆发了！！！！！

2018-01-10

冲回去！！！！

$Ameri Holdings, Inc.(AMRH)$d

冲回去！！！！

2017-12-01

$Banro(BAA)$ 为什么不爆涨！！！！

04-03

$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$

03-27

要打一次性打完

原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入

03-24

不要再拉了

@奥利弗奎恩:$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$ 什么情况？？？

2025-10-23

5.5*0.6=3.3

@经济观察报:油价大涨之下广聚能源业绩快报却“净利腰斩”

2023-09-15

奇耻大辱

A股主要指数进一步快速拉升，创业板指涨0.54%

2022-12-15

$NQ100指数主连 2303(NQmain)$

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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2605(CLmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549743055994936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547012916594560,"gmtCreate":1774571630169,"gmtModify":1774571632899,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"要打一次性打完","listText":"要打一次性打完","text":"要打一次性打完","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547012916594560","repostId":"2622372698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2622372698","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774513215,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622372698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-26 16:20","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622372698","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"原油期货曲线\"贴水\"暗示市场押注美伊冲突短暂收场，近月布伦特逼近99美元、远月却跌至79美元，看似理性却暗藏玄机——分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损与核问题的深层复杂性，令这场\"相对平静\"的定价极度脆弱，尾部风险远未充分入账。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。</p><p>据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e735e4e9fc435de27f925e04b6eb3d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p>然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。<strong>在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。</strong></p><p>富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。</p><p>多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：&#34;考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3268460204\">市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件</h2><p>所谓&#34;贴水&#34;（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。</p><p>Toni Meadows表示：&#34;贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_210820907\">长端曲线已反映持久代价</h2><p>尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。</p><p>Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归&#34;正常&#34;——但这一&#34;正常&#34;水平比冲突前高出约10美元。<strong>&#34;深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，&#34;她说，&#34;但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。&#34;</strong></p><p>布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。</p><h2 id=\"id_3234206453\">基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧</h2><p>多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。</p><p>Katy Stoves认为，&#34;即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。&#34;她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。</p><p>Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力&#34;全面降级&#34;的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：&#34;如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-26 16:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。</p><p>据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e735e4e9fc435de27f925e04b6eb3d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p>然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。<strong>在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。</strong></p><p>富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。</p><p>多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：&#34;考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3268460204\">市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件</h2><p>所谓&#34;贴水&#34;（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。</p><p>Toni Meadows表示：&#34;贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_210820907\">长端曲线已反映持久代价</h2><p>尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。</p><p>Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归&#34;正常&#34;——但这一&#34;正常&#34;水平比冲突前高出约10美元。<strong>&#34;深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，&#34;她说，&#34;但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。&#34;</strong></p><p>布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。</p><h2 id=\"id_3234206453\">基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧</h2><p>多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。</p><p>Katy Stoves认为，&#34;即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。&#34;她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。</p><p>Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力&#34;全面降级&#34;的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：&#34;如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b869860fd524e1c4d1e42b2d81d1a2","relate_stocks":{"LU1621768206.USD":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU2449327464.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0788109394.HKD":"BGF WORLD ENERGY \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","IE00B29SXL02.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) INC","IE00B29SXK94.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1621767737.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1621767810.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A\" (EUR) INC","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1621768115.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"B\" (EUR) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2384288077.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A-INS\" (EUR) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768452","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2622372698","content_text":"原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：\"考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。\"市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件所谓\"贴水\"（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。Toni Meadows表示：\"贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。\"长端曲线已反映持久代价尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归\"正常\"——但这一\"正常\"水平比冲突前高出约10美元。\"深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，\"她说，\"但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。\"布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。Katy Stoves认为，\"即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。\"她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力\"全面降级\"的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：\"如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CL2609":2,"CL2607":2,"CLmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546016548901072,"gmtCreate":1774314253270,"gmtModify":1774314255477,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不要再拉了","listText":"不要再拉了","text":"不要再拉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546016548901072","repostId":"545810924548424","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":545810924548424,"gmtCreate":1774264244244,"gmtModify":1774264246353,"author":{"id":"3505422400270239","authorId":"3505422400270239","name":"奥利弗奎恩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d10093840bffd285360202973949e33","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3505422400270239","idStr":"3505422400270239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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什么情况？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545810924548424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492334593286224,"gmtCreate":1761184216847,"gmtModify":1761184218756,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"5.5*0.6=3.3","listText":"5.5*0.6=3.3","text":"5.5*0.6=3.3","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492334593286224","repostId":"635684131","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635684131,"gmtCreate":1646979295000,"gmtModify":1646981444874,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577852034187700","idStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"油价大涨之下 广聚能源业绩快报却“净利腰斩”","htmlText":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤&nbsp;油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","listText":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤&nbsp;油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","text":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤 油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635684131","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":422999310819496,"gmtCreate":1744298446085,"gmtModify":1744298448023,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"必须涨","listText":"必须涨","text":"必须涨","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/422999310819496","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1861,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":391108365332736,"gmtCreate":1736491642383,"gmtModify":1736491643431,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 涨停","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/399006\">$创业板指(399006)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 涨停","text":"$创业板指(399006)$ 涨停","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/391108365332736","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2256,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":390639854600224,"gmtCreate":1736402949523,"gmtModify":1736402950394,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000759\">$中百集团(000759)$ </a>15.75*0.65=10.2375","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000759\">$中百集团(000759)$ </a>15.75*0.65=10.2375","text":"$中百集团(000759)$ 15.75*0.65=10.2375","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/390639854600224","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2057,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":368455679054016,"gmtCreate":1730992576919,"gmtModify":1730992578245,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 涨停","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v> 涨停","text":"$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ 涨停","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/368455679054016","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365818161611072,"gmtCreate":1730351142507,"gmtModify":1730351144121,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不要","listText":"不要","text":"不要","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365818161611072","repostId":"2479743223","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2479743223","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1730345905,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2479743223?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2024-10-31 11:38","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"A股午评 | 创业板指涨1.4% 地产、光伏、大金融股走强 贵金属等领跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2479743223","media":"智通财经网","summary":"市场早盘探底回升，截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.4%。","content":"<html><body><div> <p>10月31日，市场早盘探底回升，截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.4%。</p><p>盘面上，光伏、风电、BC电池等新能源赛道开盘活跃，教育、电力、种植业等行业涨幅居前；高位股继续活跃，多只个股一字涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002583\">海能达</a>走出26天22板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000158\">常山北明</a>6天4板，北交所润农节水4连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002542\">中化岩土</a>12天10板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603268\">松发股份</a>11连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000958\">电投产融</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603656\">泰禾智能</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600292\">远达环保</a>均9连板。下跌方面，稀土、中船系等板块大幅调整，白酒、家电、旅游等大消费跌幅居前。</p><p>焦点股方面，新股N强达大涨超530%，触发二次临停。</p><p>主力资金方面，资金青睐光伏、商用车、白色家电等行业，资金出逃光学光电子、软件开发、教育等行业。</p><p><strong>机构观点</strong></p><p>展望后市，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601162\">天风证券</a>称，短期反弹或并未结束，关键看情绪和资金。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601881\">中国银河</a>证券</strong><strong>：关注增量政策成效释放，看好银行配置价值</strong></p><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06881\">中国银河</a>证券指出，财政货币政策逆周期调节加强，促进经济回暖。地产政策组合拳加码，支撑短期信贷。加速商品房去库存、盘活存量土地，改善房企流动性，叠加地方化债加力，有助银行资产质量优化。降准降息及存款利率、存量房贷利率下调落地，银行息差受影响中性。关注后续政策实施成效。我们继续看好银行板块配置价值，维持推荐评级。</p><p><strong><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600958\">东方证券</a></strong><strong>：等股市和经济良性互动，有助于行情走得更远</strong></p><p>本轮上涨出现“快涨、大波动”的结构，底部逐步抬升，但由于外部冲击及国内经济运行中的问题化解需要时间，行情难免有震荡曲折，其实是等股市和经济良性互动，有助于行情走得更远。展望后市，科技成长仍将延续优势，如半导体周期上行，新兴成长类资产当前盈利优势显著。</p><p><strong>天风证券：短期反弹或并未结束</strong></p><p>天风证券称，短期反弹或并未结束，关键看情绪和资金。情绪看政策。我们认为随着政策的逐步明朗化，市场将从情绪驱动转向理性。市场参与者将能够更清楚地看到政策的全貌，包括政策的规模、防风险的措施，以及除了防风险之外，政策是否还能刺激经济增长，比如消费和投资。届时，市场将更加关注政策的实际受益者，而不是简单因为情绪改善而去抄底低估值股票。资金看外资。</p><p>市场反弹的持续性依赖于资金动向，尤其关注增量资金的身份。此轮增量资金主要包括散户和外资，其中外资的作用尤为关键。外部的制约仍然存在。从外部环境来看，人民币汇率的升值是近期政策连续出台的重要支撑。然而，当人民币汇率升到7之后，继续升值遇到了阻力，这也反映了外部因素的变化。</p><p><strong>热门板块</strong></p><p><strong>1、光伏概念走强</strong></p><p>光伏概念开盘走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600481\">双良节能</a>竞价涨停录得5连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600505\">西昌电力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002634\">棒杰股份</a>竞价涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603628\">清源股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002459\">晶澳科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/301155\">海力风电</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300129\">泰胜风能</a>等多股高开。</p><p>点评：消息面上，国家发展改革委等六部门发布《关于大力实施可再生能源替代行动的指导意见》。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600030\">中信证券</a>指出，多重利好有望提振光伏行业低位投资价值。</p><p><strong>2、</strong><strong>券商</strong><strong>、</strong><strong>多元金融</strong><strong>板块拉升</strong></p><p>券商股、多元金融板块异动拉升，电投产融9连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002797\">第一创业</a>2连板，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600705\">中航产融</a>涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600864\">哈投股份</a>冲击涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000415\">渤海租赁</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600390\">五矿资本</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002423\">中粮资本</a>涨超7%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000783\">长江证券</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601198\">东兴证券</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000686\">东北证券</a>、天风证券、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000712\">锦龙股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601555\">东吴证券</a>等跟涨。</p><p><strong>3、地产股持续走强</strong></p><p>房地产板块持续走强，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600383\">金地集团</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601588\">北辰实业</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600322\">津投城开</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600340\">华夏幸福</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600208\">衢州发展</a>等十余股涨停。</p><p>点评：消息面上，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601398\">工商银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601288\">农业银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601988\">中国银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601939\">建设银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601328\">交通银行</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601658\">邮储银行</a>六大商业银行今天（31日）发布公告，将从明天（11月1日）起，陆续对商业性个人住房贷款利率实行新的定价机制。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/06030\">中信证券</a>指出，年内房价有望止跌回稳，地产板块估值有望持续修复。</p><p><strong>4、</strong><strong>低空经济</strong><strong>反复活跃</strong></p><p>低空经济反复活跃，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002085\">万丰奥威</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600843\">上工申贝</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603261\">立航科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002253\">川大智胜</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600178\">东安动力</a>、中化岩土、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600580\">卧龙电驱</a>等涨停，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/001696\">宗申动力</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300107\">建新股份</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/600990\">四创电子</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/688631\">莱斯信息</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000099\">中信海直</a>等涨超5%。</p><p>点评：消息面上，据小鹏汇天消息，小鹏汇天“陆地航母”分体式飞行汽车即将亮相2024年中国航展。11月12日，将在斗门莲洲展示区进行全球首次公开飞行；同时，“陆地航母”也将在珠海国际航展中心8号馆进行静态展示。</p><p><strong>本文转载自“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯</a>自选股”；智通财经编辑：王秋佳。</strong></p> <div></div> </div></body></html>","source":"highlight_zhitongcaijin","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A股午评 | 创业板指涨1.4% 地产、光伏、大金融股走强 贵金属等领跌</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA股午评 | 创业板指涨1.4% 地产、光伏、大金融股走强 贵金属等领跌\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2024-10-31 11:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1204719.html><strong>智通财经网</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>10月31日，市场早盘探底回升，截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.4%。盘面上，光伏、风电、BC电池等新能源赛道开盘活跃，教育、电力、种植业等行业涨幅居前；高位股继续活跃，多只个股一字涨停，海能达走出26天22板，常山北明6天4板，北交所润农节水4连板，中化岩土12天10板，松发股份11连板，电投产融、泰禾智能、远达环保均9连板。下跌方面，稀土、中船系等板块大幅调整，白酒...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1204719.html\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://img.zhitongcaijing.com/image/20241031/20241031114337_77380.png?x-oss-process=image/format,jpg/quality,Q_80/resize,w_250","relate_stocks":{"159982":"中证500","399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","399300":"沪深300"},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1204719.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/6ca2dcdccfa2217fb20a0351f4efe814","article_id":"2479743223","content_text":"10月31日，市场早盘探底回升，截至收盘，沪指涨0.36%，深成指涨0.9%，创业板指涨1.4%。盘面上，光伏、风电、BC电池等新能源赛道开盘活跃，教育、电力、种植业等行业涨幅居前；高位股继续活跃，多只个股一字涨停，海能达走出26天22板，常山北明6天4板，北交所润农节水4连板，中化岩土12天10板，松发股份11连板，电投产融、泰禾智能、远达环保均9连板。下跌方面，稀土、中船系等板块大幅调整，白酒、家电、旅游等大消费跌幅居前。焦点股方面，新股N强达大涨超530%，触发二次临停。主力资金方面，资金青睐光伏、商用车、白色家电等行业，资金出逃光学光电子、软件开发、教育等行业。机构观点展望后市，天风证券称，短期反弹或并未结束，关键看情绪和资金。中国银河证券：关注增量政策成效释放，看好银行配置价值中国银河证券指出，财政货币政策逆周期调节加强，促进经济回暖。地产政策组合拳加码，支撑短期信贷。加速商品房去库存、盘活存量土地，改善房企流动性，叠加地方化债加力，有助银行资产质量优化。降准降息及存款利率、存量房贷利率下调落地，银行息差受影响中性。关注后续政策实施成效。我们继续看好银行板块配置价值，维持推荐评级。东方证券：等股市和经济良性互动，有助于行情走得更远本轮上涨出现“快涨、大波动”的结构，底部逐步抬升，但由于外部冲击及国内经济运行中的问题化解需要时间，行情难免有震荡曲折，其实是等股市和经济良性互动，有助于行情走得更远。展望后市，科技成长仍将延续优势，如半导体周期上行，新兴成长类资产当前盈利优势显著。天风证券：短期反弹或并未结束天风证券称，短期反弹或并未结束，关键看情绪和资金。情绪看政策。我们认为随着政策的逐步明朗化，市场将从情绪驱动转向理性。市场参与者将能够更清楚地看到政策的全貌，包括政策的规模、防风险的措施，以及除了防风险之外，政策是否还能刺激经济增长，比如消费和投资。届时，市场将更加关注政策的实际受益者，而不是简单因为情绪改善而去抄底低估值股票。资金看外资。市场反弹的持续性依赖于资金动向，尤其关注增量资金的身份。此轮增量资金主要包括散户和外资，其中外资的作用尤为关键。外部的制约仍然存在。从外部环境来看，人民币汇率的升值是近期政策连续出台的重要支撑。然而，当人民币汇率升到7之后，继续升值遇到了阻力，这也反映了外部因素的变化。热门板块1、光伏概念走强光伏概念开盘走强，双良节能竞价涨停录得5连板，西昌电力、棒杰股份竞价涨停，清源股份、晶澳科技、海力风电、泰胜风能等多股高开。点评：消息面上，国家发展改革委等六部门发布《关于大力实施可再生能源替代行动的指导意见》。中信证券指出，多重利好有望提振光伏行业低位投资价值。2、券商、多元金融板块拉升券商股、多元金融板块异动拉升，电投产融9连板，第一创业2连板，中航产融涨停，哈投股份冲击涨停，渤海租赁、五矿资本、中粮资本涨超7%，长江证券、东兴证券、东北证券、天风证券、锦龙股份、东吴证券等跟涨。3、地产股持续走强房地产板块持续走强，金地集团、北辰实业、津投城开、华夏幸福、衢州发展等十余股涨停。点评：消息面上，工商银行、农业银行、中国银行、建设银行、交通银行、邮储银行六大商业银行今天（31日）发布公告，将从明天（11月1日）起，陆续对商业性个人住房贷款利率实行新的定价机制。中信证券指出，年内房价有望止跌回稳，地产板块估值有望持续修复。4、低空经济反复活跃低空经济反复活跃，万丰奥威、上工申贝、立航科技、川大智胜、东安动力、中化岩土、卧龙电驱等涨停，宗申动力、建新股份、四创电子、莱斯信息、中信海直等涨超5%。点评：消息面上，据小鹏汇天消息，小鹏汇天“陆地航母”分体式飞行汽车即将亮相2024年中国航展。11月12日，将在斗门莲洲展示区进行全球首次公开飞行；同时，“陆地航母”也将在珠海国际航展中心8号馆进行静态展示。本文转载自“腾讯自选股”；智通财经编辑：王秋佳。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159982":1,"399001":1,"399006":1,"399300":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":365626704449760,"gmtCreate":1730264759944,"gmtModify":1730264761126,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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6万亿","text":"$创业板指(399006)$ 6万亿","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/360277355585696","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":245924497657920,"gmtCreate":1701054762833,"gmtModify":1701054764136,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"要脸吗","listText":"要脸吗","text":"要脸吗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/245924497657920","repostId":"1147966664","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1147966664","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"致力于提供最及时的财经资讯，最专业的解读分析，覆盖宏观经济、金融机构、A股市场、上市公司、投资理财等财经领域。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"券商中国","id":"9","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f"},"pubTimestamp":1701038189,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1147966664?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-11-27 06:36","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"十大券商一周策略：本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束！估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1147966664","media":"券商中国","summary":"当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现，历史规律显示每年通常有岁末年初行情，本轮尚未结束。综上，国金证券认为本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束，但短期内上涨动力或环比减弱，维持谨慎乐观的态度，建议不追高，而敢于逢低介入。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3cc980d198e76a956045c08144ea8f7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"689\"/></p><p><strong>中信证券：展望2024年，港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信证券研报指出，进入2023年，内外部因素导致港股受压，但10月底以来转折已现；而7月底以来海外无风险利率飙升下，市场开始重审AI主题继续推动美股上涨的动能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望2024年，在情绪修复、政策推动经济复苏、中美库存周期共振向上、人民币汇率企稳等因素下，中信证券判断港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情。但同时仍需关注海外货币紧缩及选举等风险事件或阶段性扰动港股投资者情绪。</p><p><strong>海通证券：当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海通策略研报认为，本轮上涨行情走得较为纠结，主因宏观信号不一致，经济数据喜忧参半，资金存量格局延续，外资仍在流出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现，历史规律显示每年通常有岁末年初行情，本轮尚未结束。历史上年底结构再平衡概率较大，这次既要重视可能再平衡的大金融及医药，又要重视政策和技术双轮驱动的科技。</p><p><strong>中金公司：对后续市场表现不必悲观，继续关注结构性配置机遇</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中金策略发表研报指出，10月底以来的市场反弹得益于投资者风险偏好改善背景下的估值回稳，建议关注以下几个方面的变化：1）逆周期调节政策仍在加码过程中；2）前期美元指数、美债利率给A股市场带来的影响有所缓解；3）A股估值仍处于历史较极端水平，未来有较大修复空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望后市，虽然近期A股市场在前期持续反弹后短期有所波动，但中金策略认为当前资产价格依然隐含投资者较为谨慎的预期，对后续市场表现不必悲观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">配置上，风险偏好的回升有望驱动A股小盘风格继续占优，但需要关注大小盘风格的估值分化程度，历史经验显示较大的估值分化也或带来短期的风格再平衡。行业层面建议关注半导体产业链、智能汽车产业链的投资机会，以及受益于企业出海、利率环境缓和的创新药等。</p><p><strong>中信建投证券：消费电子行业或迎复苏，关注新技术变化</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投证券研报表示，在消费电子行业资本开支经历了3年的下行周期后，判断2024年行业景气度有望回暖。2023Q3以来，随着苹果、华为等品牌推出新品，全球智能手机出货量跌幅已收窄至1%，2024年手机市场有望迎来新一轮复苏，设备企业在2024H1的新接订单值得期待；此外，钛材(机床刀具、3D打印两大方向)、XR、OLED、机器视觉有望带来结构性机会。</p><p><strong>申万宏源证券：岁末年初行情迎来动力切换窗口</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">申万宏源研报认为，岁末年初行情的演绎符合预期，目前来到了动力切换的窗口，后续行情的看点将是美联储经济回落进一步确认、国内稳增长持续催化、国内金融改革加码。国内刺激政策催化，驱动领涨板块“高低切”，短期顺周期占优波段还有演绎空间。中期方面，2024年结构选择三大思路：1. 新产业不断出现是必然趋势(华为链创新还有很多看点)；2. 从中国经济新范式思考景气方向(出口链和新跨国公司、新消费)；3. 强调公司治理、股东回报正在成为一种思潮，广义中特估提估值可期。</p><p><strong>广发证券：中资股启航</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券表示，2023年新范式在权益市场的特征体现为：“中美利差倒挂且持续走阔+中美ERP之差在历史低位持续徘徊”。股市ERP之差映射双方宏观底色之差，与利差持续倒挂且走阔相符，当前组合与2005-2006年和2013-2014年的中国、90年代日本相仿，长期新范式下最优资产组合仍是“杠铃策略”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着中美政策底共振，2024年进入利差收窄、ERP之差收敛的“回眸”小周期，历史三段收敛小周期内的资产表现：2024年中资股有望上行，港股更优，人民币汇率升值，区间风格偏向成长/小盘。</p><p><strong>中泰证券：本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中泰证券策略研报认为，本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调，建议积极把握。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就配置方向而言：（1）除了本轮救灾水利建设外，预计明年初围绕年轻租客的城中村改造亦将得到较大力度的中央财政发力加码，建材板块或相对受益。（2）指数在经历超跌反弹后，市场或再次进入结构性行情阶段，如同今年1-3月的AI行情。建议配置预计产业政策发力乐观的军工、信创、电网建设等板块。其中，今年军费增速保持稳定增长，叠加供应链安全和军工集团国企改革的催化，军工板块或有较大的发力空间；信创产业作为战略性新兴产业，政策发力趋势整体乐观；电力市场改革政策加速催化，或带来改革成效初显，投资机会与市场预期相对乐观。（3）立足更长周期，在四季度市场由超跌反弹到结构性行情过渡后，在明年配置的过程中需要注意防御，建议关注医药以及电力等高分红板块。（4）在此基础上，结合近期市场演绎，在后续轮动中港股/恒生科技板块券商板块以及AI板块或将成为有持续超额收益率的核心主线。</p><p><strong>兴业证券：岁末年初，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">兴业证券策略团队表示，随着外部环境改善，以及海外对国内经济悲观的修复，近期人民币显著升值，外资流出压力也已在边际缓解。往后看，考虑到岁末年初也是外资机构rebalance portfolio、集中加仓A股的传统时间窗口，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">外资流出压力缓解的同时，近期国内各项政策宽松措施继续加速落地、加码。此外，近期也观察到国内资金面迎来改善，对市场形成正反馈。结构上，重点关注价值成长龙头以及港股恒生科技等优质资产，在外资回暖、国内资金面改善共振驱动，叠加年底重要会议政策预期的催化下，有望带动市场整体迎来一波修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前来看，本轮全A库存周期切换已经启动，各行业间切换进度存在明显分化。结合前述复盘规律，兴业证券策略团队认为可以优先关注库存周期领先且资本开支同比处在低位的行业。</p><p><strong>国金证券 ：本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国金证券表示，展望12月A股上涨动力大概率仍将维持“单一”地受美债利率下行影响，且美债利率早在11月已较大程度释放了下行压力，因此，对于年末推升A股的动力或边际减弱。当然，市场仍旧期待年底政策预期，倘若“宽货币”、“宽财政”等预期兑现，市场上涨动力或将有所增加。综上，国金证券认为本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束，但短期内上涨动力或环比减弱，维持谨慎乐观的态度，建议不追高，而敢于逢低介入。</p><p><strong>华西证券：权益市场有望演绎震荡向上的行情</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华西证券表示，又到岁末时，宽信用中需积极引入增量资金。美联储最新会议纪要重申谨慎基调，但市场已几乎排除美联储继续加息的可能，本轮十年期美债利率从5%快速下行至4.4%附近，在当前位置进一步大幅下行面临一定阻力。与此同时，国内地产金融政策加快放松使得市场宽信用预期升温，岁末之际，重要会议的政策定调将成主线。预计后续稳增长仍会加码发力，积极财政将成为宽信用的主要抓手，货币政策保持相对宽松，资本市场投资端改革重点在于引入中长期资金，权益市场有望演绎震荡向上的行情。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>十大券商一周策略：本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束！估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n十大券商一周策略：本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束！估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/9\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d482d56459984e8c86a6a137295b3c4f);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">券商中国 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2023-11-27 06:36</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3cc980d198e76a956045c08144ea8f7\" alt=\"\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"689\"/></p><p><strong>中信证券：展望2024年，港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信证券研报指出，进入2023年，内外部因素导致港股受压，但10月底以来转折已现；而7月底以来海外无风险利率飙升下，市场开始重审AI主题继续推动美股上涨的动能。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望2024年，在情绪修复、政策推动经济复苏、中美库存周期共振向上、人民币汇率企稳等因素下，中信证券判断港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情。但同时仍需关注海外货币紧缩及选举等风险事件或阶段性扰动港股投资者情绪。</p><p><strong>海通证券：当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">海通策略研报认为，本轮上涨行情走得较为纠结，主因宏观信号不一致，经济数据喜忧参半，资金存量格局延续，外资仍在流出。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现，历史规律显示每年通常有岁末年初行情，本轮尚未结束。历史上年底结构再平衡概率较大，这次既要重视可能再平衡的大金融及医药，又要重视政策和技术双轮驱动的科技。</p><p><strong>中金公司：对后续市场表现不必悲观，继续关注结构性配置机遇</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中金策略发表研报指出，10月底以来的市场反弹得益于投资者风险偏好改善背景下的估值回稳，建议关注以下几个方面的变化：1）逆周期调节政策仍在加码过程中；2）前期美元指数、美债利率给A股市场带来的影响有所缓解；3）A股估值仍处于历史较极端水平，未来有较大修复空间。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">展望后市，虽然近期A股市场在前期持续反弹后短期有所波动，但中金策略认为当前资产价格依然隐含投资者较为谨慎的预期，对后续市场表现不必悲观。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">配置上，风险偏好的回升有望驱动A股小盘风格继续占优，但需要关注大小盘风格的估值分化程度，历史经验显示较大的估值分化也或带来短期的风格再平衡。行业层面建议关注半导体产业链、智能汽车产业链的投资机会，以及受益于企业出海、利率环境缓和的创新药等。</p><p><strong>中信建投证券：消费电子行业或迎复苏，关注新技术变化</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中信建投证券研报表示，在消费电子行业资本开支经历了3年的下行周期后，判断2024年行业景气度有望回暖。2023Q3以来，随着苹果、华为等品牌推出新品，全球智能手机出货量跌幅已收窄至1%，2024年手机市场有望迎来新一轮复苏，设备企业在2024H1的新接订单值得期待；此外，钛材(机床刀具、3D打印两大方向)、XR、OLED、机器视觉有望带来结构性机会。</p><p><strong>申万宏源证券：岁末年初行情迎来动力切换窗口</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">申万宏源研报认为，岁末年初行情的演绎符合预期，目前来到了动力切换的窗口，后续行情的看点将是美联储经济回落进一步确认、国内稳增长持续催化、国内金融改革加码。国内刺激政策催化，驱动领涨板块“高低切”，短期顺周期占优波段还有演绎空间。中期方面，2024年结构选择三大思路：1. 新产业不断出现是必然趋势(华为链创新还有很多看点)；2. 从中国经济新范式思考景气方向(出口链和新跨国公司、新消费)；3. 强调公司治理、股东回报正在成为一种思潮，广义中特估提估值可期。</p><p><strong>广发证券：中资股启航</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">广发证券表示，2023年新范式在权益市场的特征体现为：“中美利差倒挂且持续走阔+中美ERP之差在历史低位持续徘徊”。股市ERP之差映射双方宏观底色之差，与利差持续倒挂且走阔相符，当前组合与2005-2006年和2013-2014年的中国、90年代日本相仿，长期新范式下最优资产组合仍是“杠铃策略”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着中美政策底共振，2024年进入利差收窄、ERP之差收敛的“回眸”小周期，历史三段收敛小周期内的资产表现：2024年中资股有望上行，港股更优，人民币汇率升值，区间风格偏向成长/小盘。</p><p><strong>中泰证券：本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">中泰证券策略研报认为，本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调，建议积极把握。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">就配置方向而言：（1）除了本轮救灾水利建设外，预计明年初围绕年轻租客的城中村改造亦将得到较大力度的中央财政发力加码，建材板块或相对受益。（2）指数在经历超跌反弹后，市场或再次进入结构性行情阶段，如同今年1-3月的AI行情。建议配置预计产业政策发力乐观的军工、信创、电网建设等板块。其中，今年军费增速保持稳定增长，叠加供应链安全和军工集团国企改革的催化，军工板块或有较大的发力空间；信创产业作为战略性新兴产业，政策发力趋势整体乐观；电力市场改革政策加速催化，或带来改革成效初显，投资机会与市场预期相对乐观。（3）立足更长周期，在四季度市场由超跌反弹到结构性行情过渡后，在明年配置的过程中需要注意防御，建议关注医药以及电力等高分红板块。（4）在此基础上，结合近期市场演绎，在后续轮动中港股/恒生科技板块券商板块以及AI板块或将成为有持续超额收益率的核心主线。</p><p><strong>兴业证券：岁末年初，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">兴业证券策略团队表示，随着外部环境改善，以及海外对国内经济悲观的修复，近期人民币显著升值，外资流出压力也已在边际缓解。往后看，考虑到岁末年初也是外资机构rebalance portfolio、集中加仓A股的传统时间窗口，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">外资流出压力缓解的同时，近期国内各项政策宽松措施继续加速落地、加码。此外，近期也观察到国内资金面迎来改善，对市场形成正反馈。结构上，重点关注价值成长龙头以及港股恒生科技等优质资产，在外资回暖、国内资金面改善共振驱动，叠加年底重要会议政策预期的催化下，有望带动市场整体迎来一波修复。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前来看，本轮全A库存周期切换已经启动，各行业间切换进度存在明显分化。结合前述复盘规律，兴业证券策略团队认为可以优先关注库存周期领先且资本开支同比处在低位的行业。</p><p><strong>国金证券 ：本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">国金证券表示，展望12月A股上涨动力大概率仍将维持“单一”地受美债利率下行影响，且美债利率早在11月已较大程度释放了下行压力，因此，对于年末推升A股的动力或边际减弱。当然，市场仍旧期待年底政策预期，倘若“宽货币”、“宽财政”等预期兑现，市场上涨动力或将有所增加。综上，国金证券认为本轮A股反弹行情尚未结束，但短期内上涨动力或环比减弱，维持谨慎乐观的态度，建议不追高，而敢于逢低介入。</p><p><strong>华西证券：权益市场有望演绎震荡向上的行情</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">华西证券表示，又到岁末时，宽信用中需积极引入增量资金。美联储最新会议纪要重申谨慎基调，但市场已几乎排除美联储继续加息的可能，本轮十年期美债利率从5%快速下行至4.4%附近，在当前位置进一步大幅下行面临一定阻力。与此同时，国内地产金融政策加快放松使得市场宽信用预期升温，岁末之际，重要会议的政策定调将成主线。预计后续稳增长仍会加码发力，积极财政将成为宽信用的主要抓手，货币政策保持相对宽松，资本市场投资端改革重点在于引入中长期资金，权益市场有望演绎震荡向上的行情。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ebb146d9df27844cb787ad545c50986d","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1147966664","content_text":"中信证券：展望2024年，港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情中信证券研报指出，进入2023年，内外部因素导致港股受压，但10月底以来转折已现；而7月底以来海外无风险利率飙升下，市场开始重审AI主题继续推动美股上涨的动能。展望2024年，在情绪修复、政策推动经济复苏、中美库存周期共振向上、人民币汇率企稳等因素下，中信证券判断港股有望开启贯穿全年的修复行情。但同时仍需关注海外货币紧缩及选举等风险事件或阶段性扰动港股投资者情绪。海通证券：当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现海通策略研报认为，本轮上涨行情走得较为纠结，主因宏观信号不一致，经济数据喜忧参半，资金存量格局延续，外资仍在流出。当前A股估值仍在底部，海内外积极因素正在出现，历史规律显示每年通常有岁末年初行情，本轮尚未结束。历史上年底结构再平衡概率较大，这次既要重视可能再平衡的大金融及医药，又要重视政策和技术双轮驱动的科技。中金公司：对后续市场表现不必悲观，继续关注结构性配置机遇中金策略发表研报指出，10月底以来的市场反弹得益于投资者风险偏好改善背景下的估值回稳，建议关注以下几个方面的变化：1）逆周期调节政策仍在加码过程中；2）前期美元指数、美债利率给A股市场带来的影响有所缓解；3）A股估值仍处于历史较极端水平，未来有较大修复空间。展望后市，虽然近期A股市场在前期持续反弹后短期有所波动，但中金策略认为当前资产价格依然隐含投资者较为谨慎的预期，对后续市场表现不必悲观。配置上，风险偏好的回升有望驱动A股小盘风格继续占优，但需要关注大小盘风格的估值分化程度，历史经验显示较大的估值分化也或带来短期的风格再平衡。行业层面建议关注半导体产业链、智能汽车产业链的投资机会，以及受益于企业出海、利率环境缓和的创新药等。中信建投证券：消费电子行业或迎复苏，关注新技术变化中信建投证券研报表示，在消费电子行业资本开支经历了3年的下行周期后，判断2024年行业景气度有望回暖。2023Q3以来，随着苹果、华为等品牌推出新品，全球智能手机出货量跌幅已收窄至1%，2024年手机市场有望迎来新一轮复苏，设备企业在2024H1的新接订单值得期待；此外，钛材(机床刀具、3D打印两大方向)、XR、OLED、机器视觉有望带来结构性机会。申万宏源证券：岁末年初行情迎来动力切换窗口申万宏源研报认为，岁末年初行情的演绎符合预期，目前来到了动力切换的窗口，后续行情的看点将是美联储经济回落进一步确认、国内稳增长持续催化、国内金融改革加码。国内刺激政策催化，驱动领涨板块“高低切”，短期顺周期占优波段还有演绎空间。中期方面，2024年结构选择三大思路：1. 新产业不断出现是必然趋势(华为链创新还有很多看点)；2. 从中国经济新范式思考景气方向(出口链和新跨国公司、新消费)；3. 强调公司治理、股东回报正在成为一种思潮，广义中特估提估值可期。广发证券：中资股启航广发证券表示，2023年新范式在权益市场的特征体现为：“中美利差倒挂且持续走阔+中美ERP之差在历史低位持续徘徊”。股市ERP之差映射双方宏观底色之差，与利差持续倒挂且走阔相符，当前组合与2005-2006年和2013-2014年的中国、90年代日本相仿，长期新范式下最优资产组合仍是“杠铃策略”。随着中美政策底共振，2024年进入利差收窄、ERP之差收敛的“回眸”小周期，历史三段收敛小周期内的资产表现：2024年中资股有望上行，港股更优，人民币汇率升值，区间风格偏向成长/小盘。中泰证券：本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调中泰证券策略研报认为，本轮超跌反弹在级别、时间、空间上进一步拓展和上调，建议积极把握。就配置方向而言：（1）除了本轮救灾水利建设外，预计明年初围绕年轻租客的城中村改造亦将得到较大力度的中央财政发力加码，建材板块或相对受益。（2）指数在经历超跌反弹后，市场或再次进入结构性行情阶段，如同今年1-3月的AI行情。建议配置预计产业政策发力乐观的军工、信创、电网建设等板块。其中，今年军费增速保持稳定增长，叠加供应链安全和军工集团国企改革的催化，军工板块或有较大的发力空间；信创产业作为战略性新兴产业，政策发力趋势整体乐观；电力市场改革政策加速催化，或带来改革成效初显，投资机会与市场预期相对乐观。（3）立足更长周期，在四季度市场由超跌反弹到结构性行情过渡后，在明年配置的过程中需要注意防御，建议关注医药以及电力等高分红板块。（4）在此基础上，结合近期市场演绎，在后续轮动中港股/恒生科技板块券商板块以及AI板块或将成为有持续超额收益率的核心主线。兴业证券：岁末年初，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动兴业证券策略团队表示，随着外部环境改善，以及海外对国内经济悲观的修复，近期人民币显著升值，外资流出压力也已在边际缓解。往后看，考虑到岁末年初也是外资机构rebalance portfolio、集中加仓A股的传统时间窗口，外资回流有望成为市场的重要驱动。外资流出压力缓解的同时，近期国内各项政策宽松措施继续加速落地、加码。此外，近期也观察到国内资金面迎来改善，对市场形成正反馈。结构上，重点关注价值成长龙头以及港股恒生科技等优质资产，在外资回暖、国内资金面改善共振驱动，叠加年底重要会议政策预期的催化下，有望带动市场整体迎来一波修复。目前来看，本轮全A库存周期切换已经启动，各行业间切换进度存在明显分化。结合前述复盘规律，兴业证券策略团队认为可以优先关注库存周期领先且资本开支同比处在低位的行业。国金证券 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml><strong>港股那点事</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！     沪指涨0.39%，创业板指涨0.54%，深证成指涨0.43%，科创50涨1.4%。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2367669832","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！     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，你觉得老美会把利润给我们吗？这里不是A股，不会给机会的，利润只有少数人吃到了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":549743055994936,"gmtCreate":1775218927548,"gmtModify":1775218929028,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/CLmain\">$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"1\"></v-v>&nbsp;","text":"$WTI原油主连 2605(CLmain)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/549743055994936","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":44,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":547012916594560,"gmtCreate":1774571630169,"gmtModify":1774571632899,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"要打一次性打完","listText":"要打一次性打完","text":"要打一次性打完","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/547012916594560","repostId":"2622372698","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2622372698","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1774513215,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2622372698?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-03-26 16:20","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2622372698","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"原油期货曲线\"贴水\"暗示市场押注美伊冲突短暂收场，近月布伦特逼近99美元、远月却跌至79美元，看似理性却暗藏玄机——分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损与核问题的深层复杂性，令这场\"相对平静\"的定价极度脆弱，尾部风险远未充分入账。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。</p><p>据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e735e4e9fc435de27f925e04b6eb3d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p>然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。<strong>在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。</strong></p><p>富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。</p><p>多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：&#34;考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3268460204\">市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件</h2><p>所谓&#34;贴水&#34;（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。</p><p>Toni Meadows表示：&#34;贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_210820907\">长端曲线已反映持久代价</h2><p>尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。</p><p>Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归&#34;正常&#34;——但这一&#34;正常&#34;水平比冲突前高出约10美元。<strong>&#34;深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，&#34;她说，&#34;但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。&#34;</strong></p><p>布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。</p><h2 id=\"id_3234206453\">基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧</h2><p>多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。</p><p>Katy Stoves认为，&#34;即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。&#34;她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。</p><p>Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力&#34;全面降级&#34;的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：&#34;如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。&#34;</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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}\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n原油期货贴水：投资者押注伊朗冲突短暂，高风险或未完全计入\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-03-26 16:20</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。</p><p>据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/3e735e4e9fc435de27f925e04b6eb3d9\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"667\"/></p><p>然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。<strong>在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。</strong></p><p>富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。</p><p>多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：&#34;考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_3268460204\">市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件</h2><p>所谓&#34;贴水&#34;（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。</p><p>Toni Meadows表示：&#34;贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。&#34;</p><h2 id=\"id_210820907\">长端曲线已反映持久代价</h2><p>尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。</p><p>Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归&#34;正常&#34;——但这一&#34;正常&#34;水平比冲突前高出约10美元。<strong>&#34;深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，&#34;她说，&#34;但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。&#34;</strong></p><p>布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。</p><h2 id=\"id_3234206453\">基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧</h2><p>多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。</p><p>Katy Stoves认为，&#34;即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。&#34;她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。</p><p>Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力&#34;全面降级&#34;的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：&#34;如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。&#34;</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7b869860fd524e1c4d1e42b2d81d1a2","relate_stocks":{"LU1621768206.USD":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (USD) ACC","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU2449327464.USD":"HSBC GIF GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE EQUITY \"AC\" (USD) ACC","BK4144":"石油与天然气的储存和运输","LU0345780950.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0788109394.HKD":"BGF WORLD ENERGY \"A2\" (HKDHGD) ACC","IE00B29SXL02.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) INC","IE00B29SXK94.USD":"FIRST SENTIER GLOBAL LISTED INFRASTRUCTURE \"I\" (USD) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0122376428.USD":"贝莱德世界能源基金A2","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1621767737.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"AAZ\" (EUR) ACC","LU0345781412.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (USD) INC","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1621767810.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A\" (EUR) INC","LU0630314457.HKD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL NATURAL RESOURCES \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU0368265418.SGD":"Blackrock World Energy Fund A2 SGD-H","LU1621768115.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"B\" (EUR) INC","LU0170899867.USD":"EASTSPRING INVESTMENTS WORLD VALUE EQUITY  \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2384288077.EUR":"AZ EQUITY GLOBAL INFRASTRUCTURE \"A-INS\" (EUR) ACC","LU0314104364.USD":"MANULIFE GF AMERICAN GROWTH \"AA\" (USD) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3768452","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2622372698","content_text":"原油期货陷入贴水结构，交易员普遍押注美伊冲突将短暂收场。但分析人士警告，能源基础设施的潜在毁损、谈判前景的高度不确定性以及伊朗核问题的深层复杂性，意味着市场或远未充分定价所有潜在风险。据央视新闻报道，白宫向伊朗提交包含15项内容的和平方案，消息一出，油价应声大幅下跌。但华盛顿与德黑兰之间相互矛盾的表态、中东地区持续的导弹打击以及霍尔木兹海峡的航运积压，令价格仍维持高位。全球基准布伦特原油近月期货徘徊于99美元/桶附近，较2月28日美以对伊朗发动首轮打击前高出约36%。然而，原油期货曲线呈现出截然不同的预期。在贴水结构下，布伦特12月交割合约报约79.70美元，较近月合约低约17%，但仍比冲突爆发前高出约10%。富时罗素全球投资研究主管Indrani De指出，曲线形态表明市场已将约10至12美元的长期风险溢价内化为定价基准，同时预期短期冲击将随局势缓和逐步消退。多位分析人士同时提醒，当前相对平静的市场定价可能低估了局势恶化的尾部风险。BRI Wealth Management投资主管Toni Meadows对CNBC表示：\"考虑到潜在结果的范围，市场表现相对平静。\"市场押注冲突属于阶段性事件所谓\"贴水\"（backwardation），是指近月期货合约价格高于远月合约，通常意味着当前供给吃紧，但市场预期未来将趋于宽松。Toni Meadows表示：\"贴水——即未来价格低于当前——说明市场认为当前油价的上涨是暂时性的。这是一个事件，而非常态化因素。否则，出于对供应稀缺的担忧，远月合约的价格理应更高。\"长端曲线已反映持久代价尽管贴水结构暗示短期冲击，但期货曲线的绝对水平揭示出市场对冲突长尾影响的真实判断。Indrani De表示，目前油价期货曲线在约四个月后出现明显下跌拐点，至约10个月后（即年底）基本回归\"正常\"——但这一\"正常\"水平比冲突前高出约10美元。\"深度贴水结构表明，即便是受冲击最大的市场，也在为早期解决方案定价，\"她说，\"但若看10个月后布伦特的价格水平，仍比危机前高出约10至12美元。我认为，这可以视为已内嵌于市场的风险溢价。\"布伦特12月合约目前报约79.70美元。这意味着，在交易者眼中，即便冲突最终化解，地缘政治紧张局势也已在全球油价中留下持久印记。基础设施毁损与核扩散隐忧多位分析师认为，当前的市场定价尚未充分反映局势进一步恶化的情景。Katy Stoves认为，\"即便最终达成某种停火……修复这些设施、让其重新上线需要时间。\"她特别指出，液化天然气（LNG）工厂一旦被摧毁，重建往往历时数年。Toni Meadows则对通过轰炸实现伊朗核能力\"全面降级\"的可行性持怀疑态度。他补充道：\"如果冲突短暂，双方能找到退坡路，且地区产能没有遭到实质性破坏，那是一种情形——但这是一个非常脆弱的组合。\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CL2609":2,"CL2607":2,"CLmain":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":546016548901072,"gmtCreate":1774314253270,"gmtModify":1774314255477,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"不要再拉了","listText":"不要再拉了","text":"不要再拉了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/546016548901072","repostId":"545810924548424","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":545810924548424,"gmtCreate":1774264244244,"gmtModify":1774264246353,"author":{"id":"3505422400270239","authorId":"3505422400270239","name":"奥利弗奎恩","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d10093840bffd285360202973949e33","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3505422400270239","idStr":"3505422400270239"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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什么情况？？？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/545810924548424","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":237,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":492334593286224,"gmtCreate":1761184216847,"gmtModify":1761184218756,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"5.5*0.6=3.3","listText":"5.5*0.6=3.3","text":"5.5*0.6=3.3","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/492334593286224","repostId":"635684131","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":635684131,"gmtCreate":1646979295000,"gmtModify":1646981444874,"author":{"id":"3577852034187700","authorId":"3577852034187700","name":"经济观察报","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f64ac2aa784ef0f271ddeb45c7dc72bc","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577852034187700","idStr":"3577852034187700"},"themes":[],"title":"油价大涨之下 广聚能源业绩快报却“净利腰斩”","htmlText":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤&nbsp;油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","listText":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤&nbsp;油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","text":"经济观察网 记者 邹永勤 油价持续大涨，主营与石油相关的上市公司就一定业绩大增吗？答案似乎并不肯定。 通联数据Datayes！的统计显示，2021年国际原油期货（WTI）大涨55.8%，同期国内的原油、燃油和低硫燃油三大期货品种指数亦分别录得了60.4%、39.9%和38.9%的不俗升幅。而正是在国内外油价一片大涨的背景下，广聚能源（SZ000096.SZ）却于3月11日交出了净利接近腰斩的2021年度业绩快报。 业绩快报显示，广聚能源去年的营业利润同比减少31.16％，利润总额同比减少31.43％，归属于上市公司股东的净利润盈利6770.44万元，同比减少47.94%，扣除非经常性损益后的归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比减少73.48％；基本每股收益盈利0.13元，同比减少48%。 业绩大幅下降另有原因 公司资料显示，广聚能源具有成品油、液化石油气、危险化学品特许经营资质，以及广东省内高速公路建设经营加油站的资质；旗下全资子公司南山石油主要经营汽柴油批发、零售及仓储业务，是深圳市和珠江三角洲地区成品油主要经销商之一。 如此优秀的基本面加持，广聚能源为何未能在2021年分享到油价大涨的红利，甚至于业绩大幅下滑？ “我们并没有原油进口的资质，只不过是通过批发来零售。批发价格跟随国际原油价格的上涨而上涨，而我们油站的零售价格却取决于国家的定价。所以，我们的批零差价是有一定范围限制的，并不是说油价大涨利润空间就会大幅增加”。该公司的证券事务代表李若莎在接受经济观察网记者采访时强调，其实成品油业务跟2020年相比是持平甚至略有增长的，之所以总体净利下降，主要是受其他业务板块拖累而已。 正如李若莎所言，业绩快报亦显示，广聚能源2021年的营业收入约16.2亿元，同比增加31.81%，主要受益于其子公司成品油销量、销价均较上年同期上涨；同时强调，“子公司成品油业务利润与上年同期","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/635684131","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1983,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":220067332427864,"gmtCreate":1694756847324,"gmtModify":1694756848710,"author":{"id":"3470869813974709","authorId":"3470869813974709","name":"eff","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a7b73c3635e334f8816701a98f8bf75","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3470869813974709","idStr":"3470869813974709"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"奇耻大辱","listText":"奇耻大辱","text":"奇耻大辱","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/220067332427864","repostId":"2367669832","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2367669832","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1694746380,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2367669832?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-09-15 10:53","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"A股主要指数进一步快速拉升，创业板指涨0.54%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2367669832","media":"港股那点事","summary":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！     沪指涨0.39%，创业板指涨0.54%，深证成指涨0.43%，科创50涨1.4%。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP","content":"<html><body><div>\n<blockquote><p>　　炒股就看<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/603586\">金麒麟</a>分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！</p></blockquote> <p cms-style=\"font-L\"><font cms-hidden=\"true\" cms-style=\"font-L\"></font>    沪指涨0.39%，创业板指涨0.54%，深证成指涨0.43%，科创50涨1.4%。</p><div><img src=\"http://n.sinaimg.cn/spider20230915/302/w706h396/20230915/f959-931e7639bc25b114859f2bfb94f853bf.png\"/><span></span></div>\n<div>\n<span>现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！</span>\n<img src=\"\"/>\n</div>\n<div>\n<div><img src=\"\"/></div>\n<div>海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</div>\n</div>\n</div></body></html>","source":"sina","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta 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href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml><strong>港股那点事</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！     沪指涨0.39%，创业板指涨0.54%，深证成指涨0.43%，科创50涨1.4%。\n\n现在送您60元福利红包，直接提现不套路~~~快来参与活动吧！\n\n\n\n\n海量资讯、精准解读，尽在新浪财经APP</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/hkstock/marketalerts/2023-09-15/doc-imzmuepn2374321.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/b0d1b7e8843deea78cc308b15114de44","article_id":"2367669832","content_text":"炒股就看金麒麟分析师研报，权威，专业，及时，全面，助您挖掘潜力主题机会！     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