股心的个人主页 - 老虎社区

股心

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IP属地：湖南

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08-22

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 英伟达亲儿子太多，没有一个能活长久的

08-22

$CoreWeave, Inc.(CRWV)$ 昙花一现

08-18

$Bullish(BLSH)$ 昙花一现

08-15

$Figma(FIG)$ 昙花一现。

07-25

$英特尔(INTC)$ 垃圾公司永远是垃圾，财报超预期大涨都能最后转成大跌。

07-17

假新闻太多，

“加密周”遇冷！多项加密货币法案遭众议院否决，加密货币概念股应声下跌

07-10

买买，马上要起飞，在不进没有机会了

06-30

$Opendoor Technologies Inc(OPEN)$ 妖股一枚鉴定完毕，永久删除自选股

06-25

关税利空可以完全忽略了吗？

06-20

幼稚加无知

Airwallex CEO：做空Circle的时候到了

05-14

关税都取消了，还空？

05-12

幼稚

Guggenheim：重申Tesla评级，由卖出调整至卖出评级, 目标价由170.00美元调整至170.00美元。

05-12

$Tradr 2X Short TSLA Daily ETF(TSLQ)$ 还有人敢空特斯拉吗？

05-06

Replying to @我的新昵称呢:芒格不就买了阿里巴巴，现在还套着出不来//@我的新昵称呢:让他买中概，然后下跌99%，看看他会说什么[开心]

05-05

$苹果(AAPL)$ 苹果缺钱吗？公司需要发债不理解，有人能解释一下吗？

03-08

特斯拉的擎天柱机器人不看好了吗？机器人才是特斯拉未来主要产业

2024-12-31

$Defiance Daily Target 2X Long MSTR ETF(MSTX)$ 这是显示问题吗？MSTR盘尾没有大跌，这杠杠却大跌？有谁知道吗？

2024-12-24

$T-REX 2X LONG NVIDIA DAILY TARGET ETF(NVDX)$ 这显示有问题，英伟达没有跌，

2024-12-11

不是没有批准吗？

2024-10-30

$超微电脑(SMCI)$ 有多少人被套？

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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昙花一现。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/467755570696728","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":448,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":460343518040280,"gmtCreate":1753398174271,"gmtModify":1753407367947,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> 垃圾公司永远是垃圾，财报超预期大涨都能最后转成大跌。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$</a> 垃圾公司永远是垃圾，财报超预期大涨都能最后转成大跌。","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 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06:00","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“加密周”遇冷！多项加密货币法案遭众议院否决，加密货币概念股应声下跌","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2551197139","media":"智通财经","summary":"7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。</p><p>此次投票结果为196票赞成、223票反对，其中有13位共和党议员与民主党人站在同一阵线，否决了这项议案的程序性动议(rule vote)。由于未能通过程序性规则，法案无法进入正式辩论和表决阶段。</p><p>此举不仅罕见地显示出众议院共和党议员对特朗普的“反抗”，也令原本被市场广泛预期将顺利通过的法案陷入停滞。众议院领导层计划最早于周二晚间再次尝试推动投票，但尚不清楚是否会对法案内容或规则进行修改，以争取保守派议员的支持。</p><p>在投票失败后，加密概念股应声下跌。稳定币发行商<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRCL\">Circle</a>股价一度大跌逾7%，最终收跌4.58%；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase</a>跌1.52%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MARA\">MARA Holdings</a>跌2.34%。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342a567355f964f52f304d99148549c5\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>这次被搁置的三项法案包括《GENIUS法案》：旨在为稳定币设立联邦监管框架，要求100%储备、每月审计，并允许合格私营机构在美国政府批准下发行数字美元。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。《CLARITY法案》：拟界定加密资产究竟是证券还是商品，由证券交易委员会(SEC)或商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)负责监管。禁止美联储发行央行数字货币(CBDC)的提案，这一条款在共和党内部具有较大争议。</p><p>投票反对派之一、来自乔治亚州的共和党议员Marjorie Taylor Greene在社交媒体上写道：“我投票反对《GENIUS法案》的程序性规则，因为该法案并未禁止CBDC，也因为议长约翰逊没有允许我们提交相关修正案。”</p><p>她强调，特朗普在1月23日的行政命令中已明确要求禁止CBDC，因此“国会也必须在《GENIUS法案》中体现这一禁令”。</p><p>特朗普周二在其社交平台Truth Social上发文，称“众议院即将投票通过一项重大法案，将使美国在数字资产领域成为毋庸置疑的世界第一”。</p><p>然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。</p><p>Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。本轮法案原本被视为推动稳定币主流化、提升美国数字资产监管清晰度的关键一步，也被认为是加密行业力争“合规上岸”的重大突破。</p><p>据报道，仅在2024年，加密行业就投入逾2.45亿美元游说与政治捐款，以助选亲加密的国会议员，打造历史上最支持数字资产的美国国会。而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾表示，一旦《GENIUS法案》通过，美国稳定币市场规模有望从目前数千亿美元增长至逾2万亿美元。</p><p>白宫AI与加密事务负责人David Sacks更预测，该法案将“几乎在一夜之间”释放出数万亿美元对美国国债的潜在需求。</p><p>与此同时，加密行业最具影响力的政治行动委员会Fairshake也在周二披露，其手头持有1.41亿美元资金，为2026年中期选举争取监管胜利和支持候选人提供“弹药”。</p></body></html>","source":"stock_zhitongcaijing","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“加密周”遇冷！多项加密货币法案遭众议院否决，加密货币概念股应声下跌</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1318257.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/962be253ee7459c393769e9105cb1429","relate_stocks":{"CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp.","BK4588":"碎股","BK4023":"应用软件","BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4594":"比特币ETF概念","MARA":"MARA Holdings","BK4601":"加密货币现货ETF","COIN":"Coinbase Global, Inc."},"source_url":"http://www.zhitongcaijing.com/content/detail/1318257.html","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2551197139","content_text":"7月16日，美国总统特朗普力挺的多项加密货币监管法案周二在众议院未能通过关键程序性投票，令整个加密行业遭遇重大挫折。此次投票结果为196票赞成、223票反对，其中有13位共和党议员与民主党人站在同一阵线，否决了这项议案的程序性动议(rule vote)。由于未能通过程序性规则，法案无法进入正式辩论和表决阶段。此举不仅罕见地显示出众议院共和党议员对特朗普的“反抗”，也令原本被市场广泛预期将顺利通过的法案陷入停滞。众议院领导层计划最早于周二晚间再次尝试推动投票，但尚不清楚是否会对法案内容或规则进行修改，以争取保守派议员的支持。在投票失败后，加密概念股应声下跌。稳定币发行商Circle股价一度大跌逾7%，最终收跌4.58%；Coinbase跌1.52%，MARA Holdings跌2.34%。尽管如此，自上月上市以来，Circle股价仍比发行价上涨六倍以上。这次被搁置的三项法案包括《GENIUS法案》：旨在为稳定币设立联邦监管框架，要求100%储备、每月审计，并允许合格私营机构在美国政府批准下发行数字美元。该法案上月已在参议院获得部分民主党人支持后通过，被视为美国首个联邦层级的稳定币监管提案。《CLARITY法案》：拟界定加密资产究竟是证券还是商品，由证券交易委员会(SEC)或商品期货交易委员会(CFTC)负责监管。禁止美联储发行央行数字货币(CBDC)的提案，这一条款在共和党内部具有较大争议。投票反对派之一、来自乔治亚州的共和党议员Marjorie Taylor Greene在社交媒体上写道：“我投票反对《GENIUS法案》的程序性规则，因为该法案并未禁止CBDC，也因为议长约翰逊没有允许我们提交相关修正案。”她强调，特朗普在1月23日的行政命令中已明确要求禁止CBDC，因此“国会也必须在《GENIUS法案》中体现这一禁令”。特朗普周二在其社交平台Truth Social上发文，称“众议院即将投票通过一项重大法案，将使美国在数字资产领域成为毋庸置疑的世界第一”。然而，众议院共和党的分歧却让特朗普在“加密周”高调支持的立法行动遭遇打击。Circle作为USDC稳定币的发行方，占据全球美元挂钩稳定币市场约24%的份额。本轮法案原本被视为推动稳定币主流化、提升美国数字资产监管清晰度的关键一步，也被认为是加密行业力争“合规上岸”的重大突破。据报道，仅在2024年，加密行业就投入逾2.45亿美元游说与政治捐款，以助选亲加密的国会议员，打造历史上最支持数字资产的美国国会。而美国财政部长斯科特·贝森特曾表示，一旦《GENIUS法案》通过，美国稳定币市场规模有望从目前数千亿美元增长至逾2万亿美元。白宫AI与加密事务负责人David 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妖股一枚鉴定完毕，永久删除自选股","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/451608680169648","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1771,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":449811857674960,"gmtCreate":1750843865739,"gmtModify":1750844251482,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"关税利空可以完全忽略了吗？","listText":"关税利空可以完全忽略了吗？","text":"关税利空可以完全忽略了吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/449811857674960","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":828,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":447939845964200,"gmtCreate":1750383246426,"gmtModify":1750383402921,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"幼稚加无知","listText":"幼稚加无知","text":"幼稚加无知","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/447939845964200","repostId":"2544190697","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2544190697","kind":"live","pubTimestamp":1750381771,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2544190697?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-06-20 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href=\"https://x.com/awxjack/status/1935792017961083390\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"159940":"金融","BK4023":"应用软件","CRCL":"Circle Internet Corp."},"source_url":"https://x.com/awxjack/status/1935792017961083390","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2544190697","content_text":"【Airwallex CEO：做空Circle的时候到了】金色财经报道，企业支付及金融平台Airwallex联合创始人兼首席执行官Jack Zhang在X平台发文：做空Circle的时候到了。Jack 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11:19","market":"sh","language":"zh","title":"刚刚，外围传出重磅利好！反攻号角即将吹响？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182723380","media":"券商中国","summary":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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11:19</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？</p><p><strong>大反攻</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300274\">阳光电源</a>大涨近8%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300763\">锦浪科技</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300118\">东方日升</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300776\">帝尔激光</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/300751\">迈为股份</a>等新能源权重股全线爆发。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88f92c248b4845e8ecbe0ffd317760d8\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"479\"/></p><p> <strong>与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/00700\">腾讯控股</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。</strong></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff4525c88c2653bf5987a7530df0a57c\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"366\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。</p><p><strong>市场能否企稳？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/601059\">信达证券</a>表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/000776\">广发证券</a>对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。</p><p style=\"text-align: right;\"><br/></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/264deaae5d5fcaee3f3b1708dc19dfb2","relate_stocks":{"399001":"深证成指","399006":"创业板指","HSI":"恒生指数","HSTECH":"恒生科技指数","000001.SH":"上证指数"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182723380","content_text":"就在刚才，外围又传来A股的重磅消息！1月23日早间，A股市场一度重挫，但随后迎来反攻，各大指数迅速翻红，创业板指涨幅扩大至1%以上。港股市场更是快速拉升，恒指涨幅扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。究竟有何利好刺激？据彭博社今早消息，目前，中国正在考虑采取一揽子措施来稳定股市，涉及的金额比较大。但上述消息未获官方证实。昨天晚上，国务院常务会议指出，要采取“强有力的”措施稳定资本市场。香港方面，香港特区行政长官李家超称，正密切留意股市波动情况，监管机构很谨慎留意变化，暂时认为市场运作有序，未见不寻常现象。那么，此次是否能够稳住市场？大反攻刚刚，股市的大反攻来了！在早盘急速杀跌之后，十点过后，做多资金突然进场，上证指数翻红，早盘一度跌超1%；创业板指劲升2%，阳光电源大涨近8%，锦浪科技、东方日升、帝尔激光、迈为股份等新能源权重股全线爆发。 与此同时，港股市场亦集体大爆发。早上开盘，恒生指数高开0.52%，科技股领涨，恒生科技指数涨0.88%，腾讯控股、阿里巴巴涨近2%。但亦是十点过后，恒生指数展开大反攻，涨幅快速扩大至3%，恒生科技指数涨超5%。值得注意的是，北上资金突然一改常态，掉头做多，早上净买入超过20亿元。而A50期指亦是直线拉升。连人民币都被带动，快速升值。那么，究竟有何利好刺激？彭博社今早传来的消息指出，中国考虑为稳定基金提供离岸资金，这些政策可能在近期出台，涉及金额可能比较大。最近两天，A股市场持续下行，沪深300指数本周跌至五年低点，中证1000昨天亦创出阶段新低。在这种背景之下，昨天召开的国务院常务会议指出，要进一步健全完善资本市场基础制度，更加注重投融资动态平衡，大力提升上市公司质量和投资价值，加大中长期资金入市力度，增强市场内在稳定性。要加强资本市场监管，对违法违规行为“零容忍”，打造规范透明的市场环境。要采取更加有力有效措施，着力稳市场、稳信心。要增强宏观政策取向一致性，加强政策工具创新和协调配合，巩固和增强经济回升向好态势，促进资本市场平稳健康发展。从估值来看，来自德邦证券的数据显示，截至2024年1月20日，A股总体PE（TTM）为15.51倍，2012年以来30%分位；创业板指PE（TTM）估值为25.28倍，2012年以来0%分位；从一致预期角度来看，全A总体PE（2023E）为14.66倍，总体PE（2024E）为12.39倍，分别为2012年以来28%、7%分位。目前A股估值水平处于历低位，港股的估值水平则更低，按理不至于跌成现在这样。市场能否企稳？估值如此之低，为何没人敢买？信达证券表示，以此前的市场为例，2012年底，上证综指的PE（TTM）比2008年的低点更低，但由于制造业投资持续下行，稳增长力度相比2008年底更小，所以投资者迟迟不敢大幅买入。因为之前的历次牛市大多由经济大幅回升驱动，而2013年—2015年的牛市，几乎是不依赖投资回升的，在此期间制造业投资依然还在持续下行。所以面临2012年底或2014年中的估值底，如果单纯关注经济数据，是很难想到未来牛市高度的。每一次熊市，都会有很多宏大的担心，有些是错的，熊市会在错误逐渐证伪的情况下结束（比如2008年熊市）。有些宏大的担心是对的，但熊市依然会结束，因为股市估值会提前消化长期的担心，之后即使长期担心依然存在，股市可能会在完全不同的利多逻辑演绎下结束熊市。广发证券对债务周期背景下的股市进行了研究。他们指出，债务周期下，海外股市大级别底部的形成有赖于企业/居民杠杆率的趋势回落。①泰国1994年—2002年：1997年经济泡沫达到高峰，股市直至2002年三季度在去杠杆较为充分后迎来大级别反转，2004年前后GDP增速才回到危机前峰值。②美国2007年-2009年金融危机：2007年四季度—2008年三季度居民/企业杠杆率陆续见顶回落，2009年一季度股市见底并开启大级别反转。此外，债务风险的消化程度决定了市场底部坚实与否，大级别反转需要债务风险的显著出清：①日本二十世纪90年代前中期：前期债务风险出清缓慢，企业杠杆率直至1993年四季度才开始见顶回落，1990.9、1992.7、1995.6的股市底部都先后被突破；②德国1999年—2009年：2000年—2003年第一阶段去杠杆并不充分，2008年—2009年第二阶段债务风险显著消化，2009年一季度德国股市迎来大级别拐点。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"399001":1.1,"399006":1.1,"000001.SH":1.1,"HSI":1.1,"HSTECH":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":358268339290240,"gmtCreate":1728486646308,"gmtModify":1728486887989,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","listText":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","text":"没有拿住，卖飞了，45的本，47清仓，不知道还有机会买入吗？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358268339290240","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271668679954528,"gmtCreate":1707363190967,"gmtModify":1707372138399,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$&nbsp;</a><v-v data-views=\"0\"></v-v> 扶不起的阿斗","text":"$阿里巴巴-SW(09988)$ 扶不起的阿斗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271668679954528","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":359766300,"gmtCreate":1616424570900,"gmtModify":1616424570900,"author":{"id":"3476405047536270","authorId":"3476405047536270","name":"股心","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3476405047536270","authorIdStr":"3476405047536270"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UVXY\">$1.5倍做多波动率指数短期期货ETF-ProShares(UVXY)$</a>还有多少人拿着?出来冒个泡，成本多少?","listText":"<a 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