鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复的个人主页 - 老虎社区

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

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鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

2023-12-27

$Coinbase Global, Inc.(COIN)$

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

08-10

等不到的宝宝的

硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

04-23

在不在不在在不在不

@观象咨询:TSLA Q1 财报拆解：毛利率 21.1% 创两年新高，Robotaxi 零事故运营，但 250 亿 capex 引发分歧

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

04-10

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 炒米粉麻烦麻烦父母

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

04-10

$Meta Platforms, Inc.(META)$ 想你谢谢你的你男的女的那么多

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

2025-07-17

切切切切的

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

08-10

哈哈哈就

单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

2025-08-07

想你想你想你想你想你想你想你出门

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

2025-08-07

大家都觉得京东看看学校操场VV

鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复

2025-08-07

想你的男的女的么么么么哒咩麻烦麻烦

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08:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658860500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Callahan梳理出AI浪潮下三大结构性转变：智能体（硅基）流量超越人类（碳基）流量（机器人流量已占全网53%）；光学元器件大幅跑赢存储芯片（8月以来领先逾20个百分点）；开源模型以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能，直接冲击闭源商业模式。当前市场被定性为\"回归正常而非繁荣\"。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI浪潮重塑科技板块格局的关键节点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级TMT交易员Peter Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：<strong>AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能</strong>——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括<strong>仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲</strong>。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——<strong>前者正从AI&#34;逆风&#34;叙事切换至AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。</strong>与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个<strong>正在加速成形的&#34;推理经济&#34;</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，<strong>五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍</strong>——&#34;人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差&#34;。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/107aed2c947eb88e33e8a5add1862783\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking</a>表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a>本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为&#34;开源vs闭源&#34;的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为&#34;回归正常而非繁荣&#34;，将盈利增速放缓描述为&#34;结构变化而非方向逆转&#34;。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。&#34;（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>——突破还是跌破？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac0160ccf13d987ca3fe94ee7c3fd20a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20d9a23bb138c8ea7bcdf93433282f1f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"593\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">Coherent</a>连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>上涨36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYZ\">Block</a>——股价能否追上基本面？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c782eb4ba27cba3a2a2537b7a8eb695c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：<strong>股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当&#34;天花板&#34;。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8439faffdec561586a8f7240ed6d64bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找&#34;推理经济&#34;受益标的（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、Cloudflare、Plantir、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb7e142ecdd2767bffa7bb5ba459f5d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>——迟来的补涨行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1470158896638340ad0c4f5e955c5a9b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：&#34;GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。&#34;这与此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云厂商的表态一脉相承。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>——正面情绪与向下修正的背离</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：&#34;same ol&#39; story&#34;——情绪与基本面的背离，是这只股票长期面临的核心矛盾。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86cc7b4c08c88cfba13e9e4499751067\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">8、Atlassian——连续两次单日暴涨30%，年内仍亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Atlassian连续两个财报季实现T+1单日涨幅超30%，推动股价自年内低点累计反弹约160%。然而，这张图表揭示了一个极具戏剧性的事实：即便如此，TEAM年初至今仍录得负回报。这一数据既说明此前跌幅之深，也提示投资者在追高时需审慎评估安全边际。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff6b05886f2a6f2b2e8e1e5bd40ab955\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"591\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">9、UBER——GARP逻辑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Uber再度呈现&#34;业绩超预期、股价冲高回落&#34;的模式，但过去两周股价累计上涨约15%，且投资者对话中开始出现明确的GARP（合理价格成长）与价值投资逻辑——约13倍远期自由现金流对应中高个位数至两位数的营收增速，估值吸引力正在引发机构关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30958674187c4159e12d8aa213ebcb6d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">10、二季度财报——信息技术领跑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">信息技术板块在二季度财报季中领跑标普500，82%的成分公司盈利超预期，72%的公司营收超预期。这一数据为Callahan对科技板块的建仓性判断提供了最直接的基本面支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a849406725d67eb63e6e409778ffd5b3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 08:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI浪潮重塑科技板块格局的关键节点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级TMT交易员Peter Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：<strong>AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能</strong>——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括<strong>仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲</strong>。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——<strong>前者正从AI&#34;逆风&#34;叙事切换至AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。</strong>与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个<strong>正在加速成形的&#34;推理经济&#34;</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，<strong>五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍</strong>——&#34;人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差&#34;。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/107aed2c947eb88e33e8a5add1862783\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking</a>表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a>本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为&#34;开源vs闭源&#34;的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为&#34;回归正常而非繁荣&#34;，将盈利增速放缓描述为&#34;结构变化而非方向逆转&#34;。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。&#34;（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>——突破还是跌破？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac0160ccf13d987ca3fe94ee7c3fd20a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20d9a23bb138c8ea7bcdf93433282f1f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"593\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">Coherent</a>连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>上涨36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYZ\">Block</a>——股价能否追上基本面？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c782eb4ba27cba3a2a2537b7a8eb695c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：<strong>股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当&#34;天花板&#34;。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8439faffdec561586a8f7240ed6d64bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找&#34;推理经济&#34;受益标的（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、Cloudflare、Plantir、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb7e142ecdd2767bffa7bb5ba459f5d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>——迟来的补涨行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1470158896638340ad0c4f5e955c5a9b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：&#34;GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。&#34;这与此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云厂商的表态一脉相承。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>——正面情绪与向下修正的背离</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：&#34;same ol&#39; story&#34;——情绪与基本面的背离，是这只股票长期面临的核心矛盾。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86cc7b4c08c88cfba13e9e4499751067\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">8、Atlassian——连续两次单日暴涨30%，年内仍亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Atlassian连续两个财报季实现T+1单日涨幅超30%，推动股价自年内低点累计反弹约160%。然而，这张图表揭示了一个极具戏剧性的事实：即便如此，TEAM年初至今仍录得负回报。这一数据既说明此前跌幅之深，也提示投资者在追高时需审慎评估安全边际。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff6b05886f2a6f2b2e8e1e5bd40ab955\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"591\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">9、UBER——GARP逻辑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Uber再度呈现&#34;业绩超预期、股价冲高回落&#34;的模式，但过去两周股价累计上涨约15%，且投资者对话中开始出现明确的GARP（合理价格成长）与价值投资逻辑——约13倍远期自由现金流对应中高个位数至两位数的营收增速，估值吸引力正在引发机构关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30958674187c4159e12d8aa213ebcb6d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">10、二季度财报——信息技术领跑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">信息技术板块在二季度财报季中领跑标普500，82%的成分公司盈利超预期，72%的公司营收超预期。这一数据为Callahan对科技板块的建仓性判断提供了最直接的基本面支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a849406725d67eb63e6e409778ffd5b3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb491e894d559b9a3e21efb1b66dc3e6","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","SNDQ":"2倍做空SNDK 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ACC","AAOI":"Applied Optoelectronics Inc.","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","MULL":"2倍做多MU ETF-GraniteShares","LU0345770308.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU0345770993.USD":"NINETY ONE GSF GLOBAL STRATEGIC EQUITY \"A\" (USD) INC","CRDU":"Tradr 2X Long CRDO Daily ETF","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","SNDC":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Corgi","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","SNDG":"2倍做多SNDK ETF-Leverage Shares","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779037","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658860500","content_text":"在AI浪潮重塑科技板块格局的关键节点，高盛顶级TMT交易员Peter Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——前者正从AI\"逆风\"叙事切换至AI\"顺风\"叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个正在加速成形的\"推理经济\"。三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。Cloudflare在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍——\"人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差\"。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。Booking表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；MercadoLibre本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。Pinterest在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为\"开源vs闭源\"的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为\"回归正常而非繁荣\"，将盈利增速放缓描述为\"结构变化而非方向逆转\"。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：\"趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。\"（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）1、迪士尼——突破还是跌破？迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。具体来看，Coherent连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，Fabrinet上涨36%，康宁上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。3、Block——股价能否追上基本面？支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？4、惠普——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当\"天花板\"。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找\"推理经济\"受益标的（如Snowflake、Cloudflare、Plantir、CrowdStrike、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，ServiceNow首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、Adobe、Salesforce等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI\"顺风\"叙事。值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。6、英伟达——迟来的补涨行情？英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：\"GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。\"这与此前微软、亚马逊等云厂商的表态一脉相承。7、Spotify——正面情绪与向下修正的背离Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：\"same ol' story\"——情绪与基本面的背离，是这只股票长期面临的核心矛盾。8、Atlassian——连续两次单日暴涨30%，年内仍亏损Atlassian连续两个财报季实现T+1单日涨幅超30%，推动股价自年内低点累计反弹约160%。然而，这张图表揭示了一个极具戏剧性的事实：即便如此，TEAM年初至今仍录得负回报。这一数据既说明此前跌幅之深，也提示投资者在追高时需审慎评估安全边际。9、UBER——GARP逻辑浮现Uber再度呈现\"业绩超预期、股价冲高回落\"的模式，但过去两周股价累计上涨约15%，且投资者对话中开始出现明确的GARP（合理价格成长）与价值投资逻辑——约13倍远期自由现金流对应中高个位数至两位数的营收增速，估值吸引力正在引发机构关注。10、二季度财报——信息技术领跑标普500信息技术板块在二季度财报季中领跑标普500，82%的成分公司盈利超预期，72%的公司营收超预期。这一数据为Callahan对科技板块的建仓性判断提供了最直接的基本面支撑。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDG":0.6,"LITX":0.6,"ALAB":2,"LWLG":2,"SKHU":0.6,"MIC":0.6,"SKHX":0.6,"SNDK":2,"ALMU":2,"COHX":0.6,"MUZ":0.6,"CRDU":0.6,"COHR":2,"MU":2,"CRDO":2,"MULL":0.6,"LITE":2,"MUU":0.6,"07709":0.6,"SNXX":0.6,"AAOI":2,"LABX":0.6,"MUYY":0.6,"SNDU":0.6,"GSX":0.6,"SKDD":0.6,"HYNX":0.6,"SKHZ":0.6,"SK":0.6,"MUD":0.6,"FN":2,"CIEN":2,"POET":2,"SNDC":0.6,"SKHY":2,"SKUU":0.6,"SNDQ":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":311,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595253563327264,"gmtCreate":1786343706465,"gmtModify":1786343708612,"author":{"id":"3499820222370562","authorId":"3499820222370562","name":"鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc4d49ff51bea4b7e655468c18be550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499820222370562","authorIdStr":"3499820222370562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈哈就","listText":"哈哈哈就","text":"哈哈哈就","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595253563327264","repostId":"2658601043","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2658601043","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786333551,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2658601043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-10 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658601043","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士上周股价重挫15%，市场恐慌情绪蔓延——英伟达削减HBM采购、股东回报悬而未决、540亿韩元天量资本支出接连冲击投资者信心。但摩根大通逐一拆解传言：五折定价系误读、资本支出属既定计划、股东回报时间表已明显提前。分析师直言\"最坏时刻已过\"，目标价较现价仍有94%上行空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为市场反应过度。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。</p>\n<p>分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为市场反应过度。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。</p>\n<p>分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eeab9dfe7ba82d0e09d5270014bc513","relate_stocks":{"LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","FNCL":"Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" 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Rowe Price Financials ETF"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3779045","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2658601043","content_text":"SK海力士股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但摩根大通认为市场反应过度。\n据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，三星电子跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：英伟达削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。\n分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。\n报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。\n股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露\n围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。\n这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的\"年底前\"表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。\nHBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测\n上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道\"不准确\"。\n报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。\n540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划\nSK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。\n据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的\"2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能\"目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。\nSolidigm 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$387.51。这份财报有两面：利润端超预期，但资本开支大幅上修让市场犹豫。以下是关键看点。📊 核心数据营收：$223.9 亿（同比 +16%，符合预期）Non-GAAP EPS：$0.41（预期 $0.36-$0.38，超约 10%）毛利率：21.1%（去年 16.3%，+478bps）汽车毛利率（剔除碳积分）：19.2%（超去年任何单季）交付量：358,023 辆（同比 +6%，低于预期约 7,600 辆）Capex：$24.9 亿（同比 +67%）📈 最大亮点：毛利率反转21.1% 是过去两年的最高水平。从 2024 年价格战时期的 ~15% 一路修复到现在，说明：→ 降价周期结束→ 成本优化在兑现（制造效率 + 原材料成本下降）→ 定价权在回归剔除碳积分后 19.2% 的汽车毛利率更有含金量——纯卖车利润，没有补贴水分。💸 最大争议：$250 亿 Capex全年 capex 从上季指引的 $200 亿上调至 $250 亿以上，增幅 25%。管理层预告今年剩余时间自由现金流为负。投向：👉 Cybercab 产线建设（Robotaxi 量产准备）👉 AI 算力基础设施👉 4680 电池扩产这就是盘后涨幅回吐的原因：利润在变好，但全部投出去了。🤖 Robotaxi 进展👉 达拉斯 + 休斯顿无人驾驶运营中，付费里程环比翻倍👉 零事故、零伤亡👉 FSD 订阅 128 万用户（+51% YoY），转纯订阅制👉 目标年底覆盖约 12 个州👉 Optimus 人形机器人将在 7-8 月揭幕量产版Robotaxi 从 PPT 变成了有收入的业务，这个质变比交付量差 7,600 辆","text":"特斯拉（ $特斯拉(TSLA)$ ）4/22 盘后发布 Q1 2026 财报，盘后先涨 4% 后回吐，最终微涨 0.3%，报 $387.51。这份财报有两面：利润端超预期，但资本开支大幅上修让市场犹豫。以下是关键看点。📊 核心数据营收：$223.9 亿（同比 +16%，符合预期）Non-GAAP EPS：$0.41（预期 $0.36-$0.38，超约 10%）毛利率：21.1%（去年 16.3%，+478bps）汽车毛利率（剔除碳积分）：19.2%（超去年任何单季）交付量：358,023 辆（同比 +6%，低于预期约 7,600 辆）Capex：$24.9 亿（同比 +67%）📈 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08:53","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658860500","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Callahan梳理出AI浪潮下三大结构性转变：智能体（硅基）流量超越人类（碳基）流量（机器人流量已占全网53%）；光学元器件大幅跑赢存储芯片（8月以来领先逾20个百分点）；开源模型以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能，直接冲击闭源商业模式。当前市场被定性为\"回归正常而非繁荣\"。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI浪潮重塑科技板块格局的关键节点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级TMT交易员Peter Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：<strong>AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能</strong>——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括<strong>仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲</strong>。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——<strong>前者正从AI&#34;逆风&#34;叙事切换至AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。</strong>与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个<strong>正在加速成形的&#34;推理经济&#34;</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，<strong>五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍</strong>——&#34;人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差&#34;。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/107aed2c947eb88e33e8a5add1862783\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking</a>表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a>本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为&#34;开源vs闭源&#34;的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为&#34;回归正常而非繁荣&#34;，将盈利增速放缓描述为&#34;结构变化而非方向逆转&#34;。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。&#34;（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>——突破还是跌破？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac0160ccf13d987ca3fe94ee7c3fd20a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20d9a23bb138c8ea7bcdf93433282f1f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"593\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">Coherent</a>连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>上涨36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYZ\">Block</a>——股价能否追上基本面？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c782eb4ba27cba3a2a2537b7a8eb695c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：<strong>股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当&#34;天花板&#34;。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8439faffdec561586a8f7240ed6d64bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找&#34;推理经济&#34;受益标的（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、Cloudflare、Plantir、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb7e142ecdd2767bffa7bb5ba459f5d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>——迟来的补涨行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1470158896638340ad0c4f5e955c5a9b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：&#34;GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。&#34;这与此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云厂商的表态一脉相承。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>——正面情绪与向下修正的背离</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：&#34;same ol&#39; story&#34;——情绪与基本面的背离，是这只股票长期面临的核心矛盾。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86cc7b4c08c88cfba13e9e4499751067\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">8、Atlassian——连续两次单日暴涨30%，年内仍亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Atlassian连续两个财报季实现T+1单日涨幅超30%，推动股价自年内低点累计反弹约160%。然而，这张图表揭示了一个极具戏剧性的事实：即便如此，TEAM年初至今仍录得负回报。这一数据既说明此前跌幅之深，也提示投资者在追高时需审慎评估安全边际。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff6b05886f2a6f2b2e8e1e5bd40ab955\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"591\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">9、UBER——GARP逻辑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Uber再度呈现&#34;业绩超预期、股价冲高回落&#34;的模式，但过去两周股价累计上涨约15%，且投资者对话中开始出现明确的GARP（合理价格成长）与价值投资逻辑——约13倍远期自由现金流对应中高个位数至两位数的营收增速，估值吸引力正在引发机构关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30958674187c4159e12d8aa213ebcb6d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">10、二季度财报——信息技术领跑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">信息技术板块在二季度财报季中领跑标普500，82%的成分公司盈利超预期，72%的公司营收超预期。这一数据为Callahan对科技板块的建仓性判断提供了最直接的基本面支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a849406725d67eb63e6e409778ffd5b3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span></span></p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n硅基vs碳基、光vs存储、开源vs闭源--这是高盛顶级科技交易员最关注的10张图表\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 08:53</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在AI浪潮重塑科技板块格局的关键节点，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>顶级TMT交易员Peter Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：<strong>AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能</strong>——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括<strong>仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲</strong>。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——<strong>前者正从AI&#34;逆风&#34;叙事切换至AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。</strong>与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个<strong>正在加速成形的&#34;推理经济&#34;</strong>。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NET\">Cloudflare</a>在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，<strong>五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍</strong>——&#34;人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差&#34;。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/107aed2c947eb88e33e8a5add1862783\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"739\" tg-height=\"339\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BKNG\">Booking</a>表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MELI\">MercadoLibre</a>本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\">Pinterest</a>在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为&#34;开源vs闭源&#34;的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为&#34;回归正常而非繁荣&#34;，将盈利增速放缓描述为&#34;结构变化而非方向逆转&#34;。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：</p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align: left;\"><strong>&#34;趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。&#34;（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）</strong></p></blockquote><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">1、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DIS\">迪士尼</a>——突破还是跌破？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ac0160ccf13d987ca3fe94ee7c3fd20a\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"985\" tg-height=\"594\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/20d9a23bb138c8ea7bcdf93433282f1f\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"996\" tg-height=\"593\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">具体来看，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COHR\">Coherent</a>连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FN\">Fabrinet</a>上涨36%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GLW\">康宁</a>上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">3、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XYZ\">Block</a>——股价能否追上基本面？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/c782eb4ba27cba3a2a2537b7a8eb695c\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"986\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：<strong>股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？</strong></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">4、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HPQ\">惠普</a>——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当&#34;天花板&#34;。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8439faffdec561586a8f7240ed6d64bf\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"987\" tg-height=\"642\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找&#34;推理经济&#34;受益标的（如<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNOW\">Snowflake</a>、Cloudflare、Plantir、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRWD\">CrowdStrike</a>、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NOW\">ServiceNow</a>首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/cb7e142ecdd2767bffa7bb5ba459f5d7\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"731\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRM\">Salesforce</a>等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI&#34;顺风&#34;叙事。</p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">6、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>——迟来的补涨行情？</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/1470158896638340ad0c4f5e955c5a9b\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"882\" tg-height=\"583\"/><span></span></p><p style=\"text-align: left;\">GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：&#34;GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。&#34;这与此前<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>等云厂商的表态一脉相承。</p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">7、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPOT\">Spotify</a>——正面情绪与向下修正的背离</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：&#34;same ol&#39; story&#34;——情绪与基本面的背离，是这只股票长期面临的核心矛盾。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/86cc7b4c08c88cfba13e9e4499751067\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"590\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">8、Atlassian——连续两次单日暴涨30%，年内仍亏损</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Atlassian连续两个财报季实现T+1单日涨幅超30%，推动股价自年内低点累计反弹约160%。然而，这张图表揭示了一个极具戏剧性的事实：即便如此，TEAM年初至今仍录得负回报。这一数据既说明此前跌幅之深，也提示投资者在追高时需审慎评估安全边际。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/ff6b05886f2a6f2b2e8e1e5bd40ab955\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"591\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">9、UBER——GARP逻辑浮现</h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">Uber再度呈现&#34;业绩超预期、股价冲高回落&#34;的模式，但过去两周股价累计上涨约15%，且投资者对话中开始出现明确的GARP（合理价格成长）与价值投资逻辑——约13倍远期自由现金流对应中高个位数至两位数的营收增速，估值吸引力正在引发机构关注。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/30958674187c4159e12d8aa213ebcb6d\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"911\" tg-height=\"494\"/><span></span></p><h2 style=\"text-align: left;\">10、二季度财报——信息技术领跑<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a></h2><p style=\"text-align: left;\">信息技术板块在二季度财报季中领跑标普500，82%的成分公司盈利超预期，72%的公司营收超预期。这一数据为Callahan对科技板块的建仓性判断提供了最直接的基本面支撑。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a849406725d67eb63e6e409778ffd5b3\" data-align=\"center\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"418\"/><span></span></p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb491e894d559b9a3e21efb1b66dc3e6","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","SNDQ":"2倍做空SNDK 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Callahan梳理出10大核心观察与10张关键图表，勾勒出当前科技投资最重要的结构性转变：AI智能体（硅基）流量正在超越人类（碳基）流量、光学元器件正在跑赢存储芯片、开源模型正在以不足闭源8%的成本实现更优性能——三组对比，折射出AI基础设施投资逻辑的深层演变。Callahan在8月9日的报告中对科技板块8月及后续走势维持建仓性判断，理由包括仓位结构趋于清洁、技术面压力缓解、估值相对合理，以及基本面与盈利表现强劲。上周纳斯达克100指数单周上涨5%，VIX收于14附近，创年内新低，美联储政策路径讨论在非农数据公布后暂退幕后。在行业层面，本轮财报季进一步拉大了数据基础设施与开发工具类公司与传统SaaS应用厂商之间的情绪分化——前者正从AI\"逆风\"叙事切换至AI\"顺风\"叙事，而后者能否跟上这一叙事转换，将是接下来市场关注的焦点。与此同时，GPU算力持续紧张、非人类网络流量占比突破50%、企业AI预算快速扩张等信号，共同指向一个正在加速成形的\"推理经济\"。三大结构性主题：智能体、光学、开源智能体正在取代人类成为互联网主角。Cloudflare在财报电话会议上披露，非人类流量已超过人类流量，并预测若当前趋势延续，五年后非人类流量将是人类流量的1000倍——\"人类将成为互联网上的四舍五入误差\"。第三方数据亦显示，2025年机器人流量已占全网流量的53%，人类流量占比已不足半数。企业AI预算扩张，但ROI分化已现。Booking表示，AI投资已实现正回报，相关成本仍处于整体技术支出的低个位数水平；MercadoLibre本季度AI投入约8000万美元，并披露客服人员规模在业务体量增长3倍的背景下从10000人降至7000人，90%的客户交互已无需人工介入。开源模型正在以极低成本挑战闭源生态。Pinterest在财报中披露，通过在专有数据上对开源模型进行后训练，其性能超越闭源第三方模型，且每笔交易成本不足可比闭源模型的8%。这一数据对闭源AI模型的商业模式构成直接挑战，也为\"开源vs闭源\"的市场争论提供了来自实际应用层的有力注脚。高盛近期销售与交易报告将当前市场定性为\"回归正常而非繁荣\"，将盈利增速放缓描述为\"结构变化而非方向逆转\"。高盛合伙人Louis Miller则以一句市场格言作结：\"趋势是你的朋友，直到它在终点转弯。\"（The trend is your friend until it bends in the end.）1、迪士尼——突破还是跌破？迪士尼本季度交出了一份强劲成绩单，国内主题公园出勤率加速回升，但市场对盈利修正空间的争议并未消散。从技术面看，DIS股价已在下降通道中运行数年，当前正处于关键节点——是向上突破还是再度下行，成为投资者关注的核心问题。2、光学vs存储——本季度最显著的板块分化这是Callahan本周收到最多客户询问的话题之一。三季度至今，光学股（蓝线）与存储股（红线）均在7月经历了约30%的回撤，但进入8月后，光学股已累计跑赢存储股逾20个百分点。具体来看，Coherent连续7个交易日上涨，区间涨幅达73%；Lumentum同期上涨43%，Fabrinet上涨36%，康宁上涨34%，Ciena上涨24%。相比之下，NAND、DRAM及硬盘驱动器（HDD）类存储标的同期涨幅普遍在0至20%之间，明显落后。这一分化背后，是市场对AI推理阶段算力需求结构的重新定价——光互联需求的爆发速度正在超出此前预期。3、Block——股价能否追上基本面？支付服务提供商Block股价（黑线）长期在80美元低位区间徘徊，而其毛利润（蓝线）持续走高，两者之间的背离日益显著。高盛交易员Christian DeGrasse标注的这张图表，提出了一个核心问题：股价能否最终向基本面靠拢，实现向上修复？4、惠普——40天涨40%，关键阻力位在前惠普股价悄然在40个交易日内上涨约40%，正在重新测试约30美元的关键阻力位——该位置在过去一年中多次充当\"天花板\"。能否有效突破，将是判断这轮反弹性质的重要信号。5、SaaS观察——200日均线上方的破冰时刻尽管市场对话的焦点集中在寻找\"推理经济\"受益标的（如Snowflake、Cloudflare、Plantir、CrowdStrike、派拓网络等），但Callahan指出，ServiceNow首次在逾一年后收于200日均线上方，这一信号难以忽视。这也呼应了他对SaaS/应用类公司的核心判断：随着Intuit、Adobe、Salesforce等非季度财报密集发布，市场将密切观察这些公司能否也构建起属于自己的AI\"顺风\"叙事。值得一提的是，Atlassian自年内低点已累计反弹约160%，但年初至今仍下跌约6%——这一矛盾数据本身，正是当前SaaS板块处境的缩影。6、英伟达——迟来的补涨行情？英伟达上周上涨11.5%，创下2025年5月以来最佳单周表现。Callahan认为，催化剂路径正在向有利方向演变——即将到来的财报、Vera Rubin架构发布、以及密集的行业会议季，共同构成NVDA补涨的潜在驱动力。图表呈现了英伟达与费城半导体指数（SOX）的相对走势，英伟达的相对强势正在重新确立。GPU算力供给层面，紧张态势仍在持续。Akamai在财报电话会议上表示：\"GPU需求依然异常强劲，我们所有的GPU容量已全部售罄。\"这与此前微软、亚马逊等云厂商的表态一脉相承。7、Spotify——正面情绪与向下修正的背离Spotify围绕AI音乐发布的投资者情绪颇为积极，但图表揭示了一个令人警惕的现实：过去近两年，公司运营利润预测（橙线）持续下修，而股价（白线）却在情绪驱动下维持高位。Callahan的判断简洁直接：\"same ol' 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最大亮点：毛利率反转21.1% 是过去两年的最高水平。从 2024 年价格战时期的 ~15% 一路修复到现在，说明：→ 降价周期结束→ 成本优化在兑现（制造效率 + 原材料成本下降）→ 定价权在回归剔除碳积分后 19.2% 的汽车毛利率更有含金量——纯卖车利润，没有补贴水分。💸 最大争议：$250 亿 Capex全年 capex 从上季指引的 $200 亿上调至 $250 亿以上，增幅 25%。管理层预告今年剩余时间自由现金流为负。投向：👉 Cybercab 产线建设（Robotaxi 量产准备）👉 AI 算力基础设施👉 4680 电池扩产这就是盘后涨幅回吐的原因：利润在变好，但全部投出去了。🤖 Robotaxi 进展👉 达拉斯 + 休斯顿无人驾驶运营中，付费里程环比翻倍👉 零事故、零伤亡👉 FSD 订阅 128 万用户（+51% YoY），转纯订阅制👉 目标年底覆盖约 12 个州👉 Optimus 人形机器人将在 7-8 月揭幕量产版Robotaxi 从 PPT 变成了有收入的业务，这个质变比交付量差 7,600 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想你谢谢你的你男的女的那么多","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551990848923840","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1114,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":457520285581512,"gmtCreate":1752736712981,"gmtModify":1752737350465,"author":{"id":"3499820222370562","authorId":"3499820222370562","name":"鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc4d49ff51bea4b7e655468c18be550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499820222370562","authorIdStr":"3499820222370562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"切切切切的","listText":"切切切切的","text":"切切切切的","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/08dc4e1c1d9205b1f1f70a075ff68a98","width":"980","height":"2703"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/457520285581512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":694,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":595253563327264,"gmtCreate":1786343706465,"gmtModify":1786343708612,"author":{"id":"3499820222370562","authorId":"3499820222370562","name":"鑫哥哥662的地方反反复复个哈哈哈哈嗝反反复复","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cc4d49ff51bea4b7e655468c18be550","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3499820222370562","authorIdStr":"3499820222370562"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"哈哈哈就","listText":"哈哈哈就","text":"哈哈哈就","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/595253563327264","repostId":"2658601043","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2658601043","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点，精选影响您财富的资讯，投资理财必备神器！","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1786333551,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2658601043?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-08-10 11:45","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2658601043","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"SK海力士上周股价重挫15%，市场恐慌情绪蔓延——英伟达削减HBM采购、股东回报悬而未决、540亿韩元天量资本支出接连冲击投资者信心。但摩根大通逐一拆解传言：五折定价系误读、资本支出属既定计划、股东回报时间表已明显提前。分析师直言\"最坏时刻已过\"，目标价较现价仍有94%上行空间。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为市场反应过度。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。</p>\n<p>分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n单周再跌15%！摩根大通详解海力士：英伟达减配、半价折扣、回购等\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-08-10 11:45</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SKHY\">SK海力士</a>股价上周遭遇重挫，多重负面消息叠加引发市场恐慌，但<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>认为市场反应过度。</p>\n<p>据追风交易台，摩根大通8月9日发布的研究报告指出，SK海力士股价上周下跌15%，同期韩国综合股价指数（Kospi）跌幅为5%，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SSNLF\">三星电子</a>跌幅为9%。此轮下跌由三大市场传言驱动：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>削减HBM芯片采购量及定价不确定性、股东回报时间表不明朗叠加子公司IPO计划，以及大规模基础设施资本支出披露。</p>\n<p>分析师Jay Kwon在报告中逐一回应上述疑虑，<strong>认为“最坏的时刻已经过去”，并预计股价情绪将从中期维度逐步改善</strong>，并维持对SK海力士的增持评级，目标价为275万韩元（对应2027年6月），较上周收盘价仍有近94%的上行空间。</p>\n<p>报告指出，未来一至两个月内的三大关键催化剂包括：股东回报计划更新（三季度末前）、HBM合同价格更新（三季度末前），以及美国子公司上市计划更新（一个月内）。</p>\n<h2>股东回报：时间表提前，三季度末前披露</h2>\n<p>围绕股东回报的不确定性是上周股价下跌的核心诱因之一。SK海力士已通过监管文件披露，正积极评估额外股东回报措施以提升股东价值，并预计在三季度末前完成并公布相关方案。</p>\n<p>这一时间表较管理层此前在二季度业绩说明会上给出的&#34;年底前&#34;表态明显提前。摩根大通预计，<strong>SK海力士未来三年将产生空前规模的自由现金流，估算累计自由现金流超过800万亿韩元。</strong>报告指出，投资者普遍期待SK海力士作出比日本及美国存储器同行更大力度的股东回报承诺，原因在于该公司过去12个月的盈利能力（包括Kioxia股权出售收益）显著高于同行。一旦推出渐进式股东回报政策，市场反应将较为积极。</p>\n<h2>HBM定价：五折传言失实，摩根大通给出保守预测</h2>\n<p>上周市场流传SK海力士将以竞争对手五折价格为2027年HBM4产品定价，引发投资者对公司盈利能力的广泛担忧。报告明确表示，上述报道&#34;不准确&#34;。</p>\n<p>报告采用相对保守的定价假设——低于2026年预估基础上40%的同比涨幅——并给出三点支撑逻辑：其一，存储器供应商有动力优先为DDR5、LPDDR5及NAND等长期协议产品争取更高溢价，这些产品的利润率显著高于HBM；其二，英伟达是SK海力士最大客户，双方存在多项产品合作，公司可从多年采购的视角与客户谈判；<strong>其三，HBM价格每年均可重新议定，后续年份仍有调价空间</strong>——管理层的表态暗示HBM将面临多年短缺，短期合同定价未必是首要考量，若公司优先锁定三至五年的长期协议量，则短期价格让步具有战略合理性。报告同时指出，若SK海力士最终实现高于预期的HBM均价，将构成每股盈利的上行风险。</p>\n<h2>540亿韩元资本支出：规模庞大，但属既定计划</h2>\n<p>SK海力士宣布540亿韩元（约381亿美元）的大规模资本支出计划，拟在韩国新建两座存储芯片工厂，消息引发市场对财务压力的担忧。该计划规模虽大，但属于公司既定战略的延续。</p>\n<p>据报告，上述资本支出中，352亿韩元用于龙仁Y2集群的DRAM工厂（略高于龙仁一期的310亿韩元投入），191亿韩元用于清州M17的NAND工厂。龙仁Y2是龙仁四大集群中的第二个，计划于2027年7月破土动工，主要用于2031年以后的产能扩张；清州M17将于明年2月破土，首个洁净室目标于2028年底竣工，投资周期延续至2031年4月。上述安排与公司此前披露的&#34;2030年前实现100万片晶圆产能&#34;目标一脉相承，并非超出预期的新增支出。</p>\n<h2>Solidigm IPO：战略价值存疑，仍在评估中</h2>\n<p>针对SK海力士旗下美国子公司Solidigm赴美上市的传言，公司管理层表示方案仍在评估中，将于一个月内给出进一步说明。</p>\n<p>报告指出，SK海力士于2021年从<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>收购Solidigm，主要目的是获取企业级固态硬盘解决方案（QLC方案的浮栅技术）；经历2023年短暂亏损后，随着AI驱动NAND市场进入超级周期，这笔收购已获得丰厚回报，当前NAND利润率超过70%。鉴于SK海力士充裕的内部现金流和资产负债表完全可以支撑资本支出而无需稀释现有股东权益，<strong>Solidigm上市在融资层面的战略价值有限。</strong></p>\n<p>此外，报告还指出，Solidigm上市可能与韩国2026年初商法修订中关于重复上市的相关规定存在冲突，且在扩大投资者基础和估值重塑方面亦缺乏充分的战略逻辑。</p>\n</body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8eeab9dfe7ba82d0e09d5270014bc513","relate_stocks":{"LU0106261372.USD":"SCHRODER ISF US LARGE CAP \"A\" ACC","LU1629891620.HKD":"ALLIANZ INCOME AND GROWTH \"AMG2\" (H2-HKD) INC","IE00BBT3K403.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE TACTICAL DIVIDEND INCOME \"A(USD) ACC","IE00B775SV38.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN US MULTICAP OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","SK":"2倍做多海力士ETF-Corgi","FNCL":"Fidelity MSCI Financials Index ETF","LU2746668461.USD":"MANULIFE DYNAMIC LEADERS \"AA\" 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