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醉拳甘迺迪

醉拳甘迺迪

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醉拳甘迺迪

05-14

上次腾讯阿里都是发财报就跌，这次估计也是一样。

醉拳甘迺迪

03-27

‌$特斯拉(TSLA)$ ‌汽车关税妥妥的赢家啊！后面特朗普还要给他无人驾驶robotaxi开绿灯，冲！

醉拳甘迺迪

03-24

会跌几天，跌到他的增发价格下限附近，即48-52那样子，然后继续上涨。短期还会炒作小米ai眼镜和suv的消息刺激。中期会有小米机器人刺激。小米就是中国的纳斯达克，回调就是买点，回调5%小买，回调10%大买，回调20%梭哈买。

醉拳甘迺迪

03-17

‌$美国超微公司(AMD)$ ‌可能是我理解错吧。Deepseek的出现，应该是对非NVDA的AI算力的巨大利好才对，其后续的一些开源项目比如FlashMLA等，对优化非NVDA有很好的借鉴作用，后面非NVDA的用武之地会越来越大。但是市场是没有认识的呢，还是我理解错了？我还是相信自己，继续买入AMD。

醉拳甘迺迪

03-04

$Tempus AI(TEM)$ 首先要认识到ai医疗是个非常有前途的方向，且必定会诞生超级公司；然后，就是要判断哪个公司会成，现在来看，tem成的概率大

“AI新贵”Tempus AI十天跌去43%，是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？

醉拳甘迺迪

02-27

小米还有很大预期可以炒，首先是suv，然后AI刚挖了ds的核心，机器人，芯片设计，还有智能家居全屋电器等等等等，还有最最核心的，那个干一样成一样的男人，雷军！

醉拳甘迺迪

02-26

‌$英伟达(NVDA)$ ‌算力的逻辑被Deepseek颠覆了，新的开源flashMLA等让各个GPU厂商都可以提供高效的算力了！空NVDA！至少跌20%

醉拳甘迺迪

02-13

‌$Garden Stage Ltd.(GSIW)$ ‌老庄还没收够筹码？？赶紧炒起来啊

醉拳甘迺迪

02-13

‌$Garden Stage Ltd.(GSIW)$ ‌老庄还不赶紧趁中概股流动性好，来拉个几倍？？

醉拳甘迺迪

02-12

‌$Tempus AI(TEM)$ ‌‌昨天过山车暴力洗盘

醉拳甘迺迪

02-12

‌$Tempus AI(TEM)$ ‌这过山车真的猛，多少英雄好汉被这狗庄绞杀了‌[捂脸] ‌

醉拳甘迺迪

01-30

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 本来算力就没有amd什么事，所以影响相对较小的！而且！以前要n卡的高门槛，可能还会变成a卡+算法就能平替！还有！cpu眼看马上已经把intel按地上摩擦了！大量的游戏玩家闭眼冲x3d系列！amd yes！光这个叙事就值得一个翻倍奖励！

醉拳甘迺迪

01-30

祝股友们蛇年发大财！巳巳如意！

醉拳甘迺迪

01-30

一种观点，nvda算力的叙述已经见顶了，但是！不要忘记，nvda还有ai应用的叙述即将开启：机器人、虚拟宇宙、无人驾驶、游戏等等等等，原本捉襟见肘的算力资源，现在可以毫无保留地更广泛地投入到各个应用方向的发展，开启新一波更宏大的成长曲线

醉拳甘迺迪

01-29

实则是利好算力！以前门槛太高了，现在买几张卡就可以了，反而会更多人去买“几张卡”，对nvda来说，总需求反而变大

醉拳甘迺迪

2024-12-17

‌$YINN 20260116 27.0 CALL$ ‌大佬是不是还没走？？？‌[666] ‌

醉拳甘迺迪

2024-10-29

$美国超微公司(AMD)$ 随着英特尔cpu的各种问题，amd无疑是最大赢家，此消彼长，amd yes！

醉拳甘迺迪

2024-10-23

$百度集团-SW(09888)$ 库克来华讨论ai，那么会和哪个国内ai合作？百度应该是第一选择

醉拳甘迺迪

2024-10-07

‌$老虎证券(TIGR)$ ‌华尔街打压

醉拳甘迺迪

2024-07-24

$安诺电子(APH)$ 今天a股沃尔封不住涨停板，应该是提前知道财报不及预期

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‌可能是我理解错吧。Deepseek的出现，应该是对非NVDA的AI算力的巨大利好才对，其后续的一些开源项目比如FlashMLA等，对优化非NVDA有很好的借鉴作用，后面非NVDA的用武之地会越来越大。但是市场是没有认识的呢，还是我理解错了？我还是相信自己，继续买入AMD。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/414411518833072","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4546,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3538735830225820","authorId":"3538735830225820","name":"无业游民加持","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22c036a77bec57a3f7be662b3f2b53bc","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3538735830225820","authorIdStr":"3538735830225820"},"content":"是市场的问题，美股现在吃情绪和故事。现在AMD有技术无故事","text":"是市场的问题，美股现在吃情绪和故事。现在AMD有技术无故事","html":"是市场的问题，美股现在吃情绪和故事。现在AMD有技术无故事"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":409899711709440,"gmtCreate":1741082897866,"gmtModify":1741082899749,"author":{"id":"3502341397240080","authorId":"3502341397240080","name":"醉拳甘迺迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cc9232c80e43d351cf59acf1b10d03b4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3502341397240080","authorIdStr":"3502341397240080"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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17:27","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"“AI新贵”Tempus AI十天跌去43%，是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1154776946","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"在未来几个季度，Tempus AI的股价可能仍会波动，但着眼于长期的价值投资者，现在应该是一个逢低建仓的机会。Q4业绩情况尽管 Tempus AI 第四季度的总体数据喜忧参半，但有几个因素值得考虑。然而，相较于 Tempus AI 的初步预期，这一指引实际上略有上调。从字里行间来看，Tempus AI 现在的有机增长预期似乎比一个月前略好。对于 Ambry Genetics，Tempus AI 预计该公司在 2025 年将增长约 25%，这意味着营收约为 3.75 亿美元。对于Tempus AI 来说，最大的风险之一仍然是竞争加剧的可能性。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>自2月14日创下历史新高以来，“AI新贵” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">Tempus AI</a> 过去10个交易日已累计跌超43%，曾经的木头姐与佩洛西“心头好”风光不再：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b4f458f8540b1f6c1dff968059c94a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>经历了连续的暴跌之后，市场必然会对Tempus AI 的前景提出疑问：这是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？</p><p>从最近公布的第四季度财报来看，公司Q4的财务数据与其 1 月中旬的初步公告相符。尽管这些数据略低于市场普遍预期，但鉴于此前已有初步公告，这并不意外。</p><p>实际上，公司还略微上调了 2025 年的营收指引，并对调整后EBITDA的盈利情况给出了更具体的说明。的确，该公司仍处于盈利进程的早期阶段。不过，其主要关注点仍应放在营收增长和客户接纳方面。</p><p>Tempus AI 是医疗保健人工智能行业的领先企业，虽然该公司的应用仍处于被采用的早期阶段，但 Tempus AI 已开发出一种专有的数据模型，旨在提供个性化的医疗保健治疗建议。</p><p>投资者可能会继续担心该公司维持快速增长的能力，然而对于 2025 年而言，30% 的有机营收（organic revenue）增长预期似乎颇具吸引力，此外公司对 Ambry Genetics 的收购已正式完成，未来将会整合到 Tempus AI 中。</p><p>公司对人工智能的投资仍处于早期阶段，但在医疗保健领域存在巨大的机会，虽然医疗保健AI投资可能需要多个季度才能获得发展动力，但 Tempus AI 提供了一个具有差异化的市场领先解决方案。</p><p>在未来几个季度，Tempus AI的股价可能仍会波动，但着眼于长期的价值投资者，现在应该是一个逢低建仓的机会。</p><h3 id=\"id_1003516\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4业绩情况</h3><p>尽管 Tempus AI 第四季度的总体数据喜忧参半，但有几个因素值得考虑。</p><p>公司第四季度营收为 2.007 亿美元，同比增长 35.8%，不过比市场普遍预期低了 210 万美元。本季度调整后的 EBITDA 亏损收窄至 780 万美元，而上个季度的亏损为 2180 万美元。</p><p>虽然公布的总体数据未达预期，但应着重注意的是，Tempus AI 在 1 月 13 日就已提供了初步财务业绩，其中包括营收 2 亿美元（已达成）以及调整后的 EBITDA 环比改善（已达成）。在此背景下，第四季度的实际业绩与管理层的预期非常相符。</p><p>审视该公司的两个业务板块，可以发现两者在第四季度都表现强劲：</p><p>基因组学业务营收为 1.204 亿美元，同比增长 30.6%，业务量同比增长 22.5%。全年来看，该公司共进行了 27.08 万次肿瘤下一代测序（Oncology NGS）检测，每次检测的平均营收同比增长 5%，达到 1530 美元。</p><p>的确，基因组学业务板块的增长有所放缓，但随着公司规模的不断扩大，这在很大程度上是预料之中的，且对 Ambry Genetics 的收购将归入这一业务板块。</p><p>Ambry Genetics 每年对约 40 万名患者进行测序，产生了大量数据。Tempus AI 可以利用这些数据来扩充其现有的数据服务。Ambry Genetics 的产品线使 Tempus AI 能够立即拓展到新的领域（儿科、罕见病、心脏病学、生殖健康、免疫学等）。</p><p>在数据与服务业务板块，该公司第四季度营收为 8020 万美元，同比增长 44.6%。重要的是，该公司报告的剩余合同总价值超过 9.4 亿美元，其中包括约 3 亿美元的未来选择权收入。从本质上讲，该公司数据与服务业务板块的潜在合同总价值超过 12.4 亿美元。</p><p>此外，该业务板块在 2024 年的净营收留存率约为 140%。对于软件公司来说，这是一个非常重要的指标，它代表了现有客户平均支出相比去年同期的增长幅度。所以如果一个客户在 2023 年支出 100 美元，那么在 2024 年，平均每个客户的支出约为 140 美元。</p><p>这一非常强劲的指标表明，现有客户从 Tempus AI 的服务中获得了很多价值，并且他们有很高的意愿进一步增加支出。</p><p>说到 2025 年的业绩指引，总体数据再次略低于最初预期。然而，相较于 Tempus AI 的初步预期，这一指引实际上略有上调。</p><p>对于 2025 年，Tempus AI 现在预计营收约为 12.4 亿美元，同比增长约 79%。这略高于该公司 1 月中旬提供初步业绩时预计的约 12.3 亿美元营收。</p><p>在营收指引中，其中包括 Tempus AI 核心业务约 30% 的增长，而此前提到的有机增长是 “接近 30%”。从字里行间来看，Tempus AI 现在的有机增长预期似乎比一个月前略好。</p><p>对于 Ambry Genetics，Tempus AI 预计该公司在 2025 年将增长约 25%，这意味着营收约为 3.75 亿美元。鉴于此次收购于 2025 年 2 月 3 日完成，这意味着 12 个月中有大约 11 个月的营收将计入 2025 年，即 Ambry Genetics 约贡献 3.5 亿美元营收。</p><p>2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 预计约为 500 万美元。由于该公司此前预计 2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 仅为正值，这一最新指引符合预期。</p><p>总体而言，该公司第四季度的业绩几乎与其初步业绩一致。2025 年的指引指标实际上略好于预期，因此这份最新的财务报告对 Tempus AI 来说总体是积极的。</p><h3 id=\"id_844979538\" style=\"text-align: start;\">估值与风险</h3><p>对一家处于早期阶段的公司进行估值时，最具挑战性的方面之一是确定合适的股票估值倍数。Tempus AI 目前的预期营收倍数约为 8.8 倍，虽然这对一些投资者来说可能较高，但这与其他领先的软件公司非常相符。</p><p>需要考虑的一点是，Tempus AI 的增长在未来多年可能会高于软件公司的平均水平。如果 Tempus AI 能够保持 25% 以上的有机营收增长，那么从未来的角度看，当前的估值就会合理得多。</p><p>该公司目前的市值约为 97 亿美元，拥有约 4.5 亿美元现金和约 4.35 亿美元债务，当前企业价值略低于 97 亿美元。</p><p>2025 年的营收指引约为 12.4 亿美元，假设 2026 年增长 25%（这意味着增长速度会放缓），2026 年的营收最终可能达到约 15.5 亿美元。这将意味着营收倍数约为 6.3 倍，更为合理。</p><p>对于希望增加对医疗保健人工智能投资的长期投资者来说，Tempus AI 仍然是一个有吸引力的早期投资机会。该公司在产品被市场接受的进程中仍处于早期阶段，但Tempus AI 有大量的新市场机会来提升产品的吸引力。</p><p>对于Tempus AI 来说，最大的风险之一仍然是竞争加剧的可能性。如果公司能够证明其解决方案符合市场需求，这可能会吸引更多竞争对手进入该领域。</p><p>此外，随着整个医疗保健行业开始对人工智能解决方案投入更多资金，这个终端市场的竞争可能会更加激烈。</p><p>从最近的财务业绩可以看出，未达到投资者预期的数据导致了股价回落。如果该公司再次公布令人失望的季度业绩，或者下调 2025 年的业绩指引，可能会面临更多问题。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta 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hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“AI新贵”Tempus AI十天跌去43%，是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-03-04 17:27</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>自2月14日创下历史新高以来，“AI新贵” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TEM\">Tempus AI</a> 过去10个交易日已累计跌超43%，曾经的木头姐与佩洛西“心头好”风光不再：</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/69b4f458f8540b1f6c1dff968059c94a\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p>经历了连续的暴跌之后，市场必然会对Tempus AI 的前景提出疑问：这是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？</p><p>从最近公布的第四季度财报来看，公司Q4的财务数据与其 1 月中旬的初步公告相符。尽管这些数据略低于市场普遍预期，但鉴于此前已有初步公告，这并不意外。</p><p>实际上，公司还略微上调了 2025 年的营收指引，并对调整后EBITDA的盈利情况给出了更具体的说明。的确，该公司仍处于盈利进程的早期阶段。不过，其主要关注点仍应放在营收增长和客户接纳方面。</p><p>Tempus AI 是医疗保健人工智能行业的领先企业，虽然该公司的应用仍处于被采用的早期阶段，但 Tempus AI 已开发出一种专有的数据模型，旨在提供个性化的医疗保健治疗建议。</p><p>投资者可能会继续担心该公司维持快速增长的能力，然而对于 2025 年而言，30% 的有机营收（organic revenue）增长预期似乎颇具吸引力，此外公司对 Ambry Genetics 的收购已正式完成，未来将会整合到 Tempus AI 中。</p><p>公司对人工智能的投资仍处于早期阶段，但在医疗保健领域存在巨大的机会，虽然医疗保健AI投资可能需要多个季度才能获得发展动力，但 Tempus AI 提供了一个具有差异化的市场领先解决方案。</p><p>在未来几个季度，Tempus AI的股价可能仍会波动，但着眼于长期的价值投资者，现在应该是一个逢低建仓的机会。</p><h3 id=\"id_1003516\" style=\"text-align: start;\">Q4业绩情况</h3><p>尽管 Tempus AI 第四季度的总体数据喜忧参半，但有几个因素值得考虑。</p><p>公司第四季度营收为 2.007 亿美元，同比增长 35.8%，不过比市场普遍预期低了 210 万美元。本季度调整后的 EBITDA 亏损收窄至 780 万美元，而上个季度的亏损为 2180 万美元。</p><p>虽然公布的总体数据未达预期，但应着重注意的是，Tempus AI 在 1 月 13 日就已提供了初步财务业绩，其中包括营收 2 亿美元（已达成）以及调整后的 EBITDA 环比改善（已达成）。在此背景下，第四季度的实际业绩与管理层的预期非常相符。</p><p>审视该公司的两个业务板块，可以发现两者在第四季度都表现强劲：</p><p>基因组学业务营收为 1.204 亿美元，同比增长 30.6%，业务量同比增长 22.5%。全年来看，该公司共进行了 27.08 万次肿瘤下一代测序（Oncology NGS）检测，每次检测的平均营收同比增长 5%，达到 1530 美元。</p><p>的确，基因组学业务板块的增长有所放缓，但随着公司规模的不断扩大，这在很大程度上是预料之中的，且对 Ambry Genetics 的收购将归入这一业务板块。</p><p>Ambry Genetics 每年对约 40 万名患者进行测序，产生了大量数据。Tempus AI 可以利用这些数据来扩充其现有的数据服务。Ambry Genetics 的产品线使 Tempus AI 能够立即拓展到新的领域（儿科、罕见病、心脏病学、生殖健康、免疫学等）。</p><p>在数据与服务业务板块，该公司第四季度营收为 8020 万美元，同比增长 44.6%。重要的是，该公司报告的剩余合同总价值超过 9.4 亿美元，其中包括约 3 亿美元的未来选择权收入。从本质上讲，该公司数据与服务业务板块的潜在合同总价值超过 12.4 亿美元。</p><p>此外，该业务板块在 2024 年的净营收留存率约为 140%。对于软件公司来说，这是一个非常重要的指标，它代表了现有客户平均支出相比去年同期的增长幅度。所以如果一个客户在 2023 年支出 100 美元，那么在 2024 年，平均每个客户的支出约为 140 美元。</p><p>这一非常强劲的指标表明，现有客户从 Tempus AI 的服务中获得了很多价值，并且他们有很高的意愿进一步增加支出。</p><p>说到 2025 年的业绩指引，总体数据再次略低于最初预期。然而，相较于 Tempus AI 的初步预期，这一指引实际上略有上调。</p><p>对于 2025 年，Tempus AI 现在预计营收约为 12.4 亿美元，同比增长约 79%。这略高于该公司 1 月中旬提供初步业绩时预计的约 12.3 亿美元营收。</p><p>在营收指引中，其中包括 Tempus AI 核心业务约 30% 的增长，而此前提到的有机增长是 “接近 30%”。从字里行间来看，Tempus AI 现在的有机增长预期似乎比一个月前略好。</p><p>对于 Ambry Genetics，Tempus AI 预计该公司在 2025 年将增长约 25%，这意味着营收约为 3.75 亿美元。鉴于此次收购于 2025 年 2 月 3 日完成，这意味着 12 个月中有大约 11 个月的营收将计入 2025 年，即 Ambry Genetics 约贡献 3.5 亿美元营收。</p><p>2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 预计约为 500 万美元。由于该公司此前预计 2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 仅为正值，这一最新指引符合预期。</p><p>总体而言，该公司第四季度的业绩几乎与其初步业绩一致。2025 年的指引指标实际上略好于预期，因此这份最新的财务报告对 Tempus AI 来说总体是积极的。</p><h3 id=\"id_844979538\" style=\"text-align: start;\">估值与风险</h3><p>对一家处于早期阶段的公司进行估值时，最具挑战性的方面之一是确定合适的股票估值倍数。Tempus AI 目前的预期营收倍数约为 8.8 倍，虽然这对一些投资者来说可能较高，但这与其他领先的软件公司非常相符。</p><p>需要考虑的一点是，Tempus AI 的增长在未来多年可能会高于软件公司的平均水平。如果 Tempus AI 能够保持 25% 以上的有机营收增长，那么从未来的角度看，当前的估值就会合理得多。</p><p>该公司目前的市值约为 97 亿美元，拥有约 4.5 亿美元现金和约 4.35 亿美元债务，当前企业价值略低于 97 亿美元。</p><p>2025 年的营收指引约为 12.4 亿美元，假设 2026 年增长 25%（这意味着增长速度会放缓），2026 年的营收最终可能达到约 15.5 亿美元。这将意味着营收倍数约为 6.3 倍，更为合理。</p><p>对于希望增加对医疗保健人工智能投资的长期投资者来说，Tempus AI 仍然是一个有吸引力的早期投资机会。该公司在产品被市场接受的进程中仍处于早期阶段，但Tempus AI 有大量的新市场机会来提升产品的吸引力。</p><p>对于Tempus AI 来说，最大的风险之一仍然是竞争加剧的可能性。如果公司能够证明其解决方案符合市场需求，这可能会吸引更多竞争对手进入该领域。</p><p>此外，随着整个医疗保健行业开始对人工智能解决方案投入更多资金，这个终端市场的竞争可能会更加激烈。</p><p>从最近的财务业绩可以看出，未达到投资者预期的数据导致了股价回落。如果该公司再次公布令人失望的季度业绩，或者下调 2025 年的业绩指引，可能会面临更多问题。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d5b00c25f67d9aea31de2ea60b2b2e5","relate_stocks":{"TEM":"Tempus AI"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1154776946","content_text":"自2月14日创下历史新高以来，“AI新贵” Tempus AI 过去10个交易日已累计跌超43%，曾经的木头姐与佩洛西“心头好”风光不再：经历了连续的暴跌之后，市场必然会对Tempus AI 的前景提出疑问：这是泡沫破碎还是抄底时机？从最近公布的第四季度财报来看，公司Q4的财务数据与其 1 月中旬的初步公告相符。尽管这些数据略低于市场普遍预期，但鉴于此前已有初步公告，这并不意外。实际上，公司还略微上调了 2025 年的营收指引，并对调整后EBITDA的盈利情况给出了更具体的说明。的确，该公司仍处于盈利进程的早期阶段。不过，其主要关注点仍应放在营收增长和客户接纳方面。Tempus AI 是医疗保健人工智能行业的领先企业，虽然该公司的应用仍处于被采用的早期阶段，但 Tempus AI 已开发出一种专有的数据模型，旨在提供个性化的医疗保健治疗建议。投资者可能会继续担心该公司维持快速增长的能力，然而对于 2025 年而言，30% 的有机营收（organic revenue）增长预期似乎颇具吸引力，此外公司对 Ambry Genetics 的收购已正式完成，未来将会整合到 Tempus AI 中。公司对人工智能的投资仍处于早期阶段，但在医疗保健领域存在巨大的机会，虽然医疗保健AI投资可能需要多个季度才能获得发展动力，但 Tempus AI 提供了一个具有差异化的市场领先解决方案。在未来几个季度，Tempus AI的股价可能仍会波动，但着眼于长期的价值投资者，现在应该是一个逢低建仓的机会。Q4业绩情况尽管 Tempus AI 第四季度的总体数据喜忧参半，但有几个因素值得考虑。公司第四季度营收为 2.007 亿美元，同比增长 35.8%，不过比市场普遍预期低了 210 万美元。本季度调整后的 EBITDA 亏损收窄至 780 万美元，而上个季度的亏损为 2180 万美元。虽然公布的总体数据未达预期，但应着重注意的是，Tempus AI 在 1 月 13 日就已提供了初步财务业绩，其中包括营收 2 亿美元（已达成）以及调整后的 EBITDA 环比改善（已达成）。在此背景下，第四季度的实际业绩与管理层的预期非常相符。审视该公司的两个业务板块，可以发现两者在第四季度都表现强劲：基因组学业务营收为 1.204 亿美元，同比增长 30.6%，业务量同比增长 22.5%。全年来看，该公司共进行了 27.08 万次肿瘤下一代测序（Oncology NGS）检测，每次检测的平均营收同比增长 5%，达到 1530 美元。的确，基因组学业务板块的增长有所放缓，但随着公司规模的不断扩大，这在很大程度上是预料之中的，且对 Ambry Genetics 的收购将归入这一业务板块。Ambry Genetics 每年对约 40 万名患者进行测序，产生了大量数据。Tempus AI 可以利用这些数据来扩充其现有的数据服务。Ambry Genetics 的产品线使 Tempus AI 能够立即拓展到新的领域（儿科、罕见病、心脏病学、生殖健康、免疫学等）。在数据与服务业务板块，该公司第四季度营收为 8020 万美元，同比增长 44.6%。重要的是，该公司报告的剩余合同总价值超过 9.4 亿美元，其中包括约 3 亿美元的未来选择权收入。从本质上讲，该公司数据与服务业务板块的潜在合同总价值超过 12.4 亿美元。此外，该业务板块在 2024 年的净营收留存率约为 140%。对于软件公司来说，这是一个非常重要的指标，它代表了现有客户平均支出相比去年同期的增长幅度。所以如果一个客户在 2023 年支出 100 美元，那么在 2024 年，平均每个客户的支出约为 140 美元。这一非常强劲的指标表明，现有客户从 Tempus AI 的服务中获得了很多价值，并且他们有很高的意愿进一步增加支出。说到 2025 年的业绩指引，总体数据再次略低于最初预期。然而，相较于 Tempus AI 的初步预期，这一指引实际上略有上调。对于 2025 年，Tempus AI 现在预计营收约为 12.4 亿美元，同比增长约 79%。这略高于该公司 1 月中旬提供初步业绩时预计的约 12.3 亿美元营收。在营收指引中，其中包括 Tempus AI 核心业务约 30% 的增长，而此前提到的有机增长是 “接近 30%”。从字里行间来看，Tempus AI 现在的有机增长预期似乎比一个月前略好。对于 Ambry Genetics，Tempus AI 预计该公司在 2025 年将增长约 25%，这意味着营收约为 3.75 亿美元。鉴于此次收购于 2025 年 2 月 3 日完成，这意味着 12 个月中有大约 11 个月的营收将计入 2025 年，即 Ambry Genetics 约贡献 3.5 亿美元营收。2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 预计约为 500 万美元。由于该公司此前预计 2025 年调整后的 EBITDA 仅为正值，这一最新指引符合预期。总体而言，该公司第四季度的业绩几乎与其初步业绩一致。2025 年的指引指标实际上略好于预期，因此这份最新的财务报告对 Tempus AI 来说总体是积极的。估值与风险对一家处于早期阶段的公司进行估值时，最具挑战性的方面之一是确定合适的股票估值倍数。Tempus AI 目前的预期营收倍数约为 8.8 倍，虽然这对一些投资者来说可能较高，但这与其他领先的软件公司非常相符。需要考虑的一点是，Tempus AI 的增长在未来多年可能会高于软件公司的平均水平。如果 Tempus AI 能够保持 25% 以上的有机营收增长，那么从未来的角度看，当前的估值就会合理得多。该公司目前的市值约为 97 亿美元，拥有约 4.5 亿美元现金和约 4.35 亿美元债务，当前企业价值略低于 97 亿美元。2025 年的营收指引约为 12.4 亿美元，假设 2026 年增长 25%（这意味着增长速度会放缓），2026 年的营收最终可能达到约 15.5 亿美元。这将意味着营收倍数约为 6.3 倍，更为合理。对于希望增加对医疗保健人工智能投资的长期投资者来说，Tempus AI 仍然是一个有吸引力的早期投资机会。该公司在产品被市场接受的进程中仍处于早期阶段，但Tempus AI 有大量的新市场机会来提升产品的吸引力。对于Tempus AI 来说，最大的风险之一仍然是竞争加剧的可能性。如果公司能够证明其解决方案符合市场需求，这可能会吸引更多竞争对手进入该领域。此外，随着整个医疗保健行业开始对人工智能解决方案投入更多资金，这个终端市场的竞争可能会更加激烈。从最近的财务业绩可以看出，未达到投资者预期的数据导致了股价回落。如果该公司再次公布令人失望的季度业绩，或者下调 2025 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