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先赚88888888万亿美金再说!
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主神级交易员鄧文
17:55
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
犹太民族擒获世界帝国的难度,比我们上下几千年的历史上、皇子夺嫡擒获国公府的难度大多了,连朱隶也就擒获半个国公府而已、朱隶牛吧,犹太民族三次连续擒获世界帝国,真TM牛
主神级交易员鄧文
17:45
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
犹太民族这波又要赢嘛了,全球化下就没有这种机会,逆全球化下、通过黄金又擒获了一个世界帝国,斯基当立首功、库什纳从功,看看前面的首功从功、路径一模一样,当年的西班牙帝国、大英帝国,现货黄金这波10年内到100万刀基本是稳了,不是10万刀,
主神级交易员鄧文
15:14
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
寂寞
主神级交易员鄧文
15:13
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
无聊
主神级交易员鄧文
02-27 11:25
$英伟达(NVDA)$
卧槽,看到不少标的的波动幅度都很大,这陪佩了宏观波动达峰和共振,宏观-大量个股-英伟达,这个波动幅度链条在顺畅的传导,看样子,什么时候英伟达的波动幅度加大,就是市场广度扩张的结束之时,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-27 11:04
$英伟达(NVDA)$
计划交易靠本事了,这波交易贝森特随甚至会出现反向的概率、而且概率很大、与计划重合的概率非常小,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-27 10:50
$英伟达(NVDA)$
贝森特随、的路径:意思就是说:贝森特随、再来一次的路径,市场的走势:黄金在目前4400-5598区间内偏中上沿大幅波动(参考3500-2800区间波动),AI板块延续下跌趋势到有序区间下沿后开始拉升加密货币为其兜底(拉到超过前高的概率很小,),这是第一步,第二部:拉黄金破前高,拉升AI巨头,让市场广度成上行的收榨趋势,AI巨头位置超过三大盘,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-27 10:35
$英伟达(NVDA)$
马后炮帖: 昨晚达子财报跌了5%左右,这波动幅度算很小了,跟宏观波动达峰和共振不陪佩,英伟达的位置是第二高的、只低于三大盘,AI板块由高位下跌、周期和价值股由地位向上上升,市场广度在扩张,非常好的现象;在目前的态势和宏观环境下,跌10%才正常,目前贝森特前面就三条路径:黄金储备拉的不够高、拉黄金储备对AI的作用已经失效、趁此压低AI板块跟关税日后一样留下上涨空间, 三条路径有一个解决方法:耶伦规。这个去年上半年贝森特用过一次,这次再用就有点掉价了,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-27 10:10
大型人口失踪回归现场,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-25
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对比拜登时代,当时通胀高职、美联储大幅加息、实体经济萎靡、水又达峰走下坡路,金融市场是波动性下跌,而特朗普时代,关税壁垒、逆全球化、经济转型,水源切换,金融市场在25年4月份一步跌到位,后续的波动并不大,拜登时代的路径很好预测,而特朗普路径根本预测不了,只能知道其100%试探、不行就退缩、行就推行大赚,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-25
利息收入超过营收的一半多,
抱歉,原内容已删除
主神级交易员鄧文
02-24
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
小心宏观冲击事件的达峰VS美股市场的分化达峰和美债市场的背离达峰,事件与金融达峰,很容易共振,而英伟达财报日刚好赶在这个窗口期,共振很容易加大英伟达财报日的波动幅度,等英伟达财报一过,市场将会迎来达峰后的下坡期,这时卖出波动率的最佳时间,参考4月关税日、目前的波动率达峰没有当时大,当时波动率达峰大、退峰时间长,这波的退峰时间肯定要比当时要短、同时特朗普在闹幺蛾子决定了峰值降低没有当时的低,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
无聊
主神级交易员鄧文
02-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
相比于这次玩英伟达财报,打微软期权的末日对敲、微软更有新价比,因为英伟达这次可能上涨下跌或横排,而微软这波绝对只有一种情况:在目前位置要么上涨要么下跌,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、
主神级交易员鄧文
02-23
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、
主神级交易员鄧文
02-23
最早的国内是90年代后期的门户网站和搜索,后面0几年的太阳能板和光伏、当年新余的赛维,后面的智能手机,再到1几年的移动互联网,然后是新能源汽车,现在的AI模型,看里面对比欧美的不同与相同,除了新能源电动车,
抱歉,原内容已删除
主神级交易员鄧文
02-22
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
无聊
主神级交易员鄧文
02-19
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这波由格林兰岛-关税欧洲卖出美国- 微软大跌沃什鹰派- AI软件,坏事一起上的冲击波,目前在由过了高潮峰顶到退潮1/2位置,而整个美股市场各大板块的位置目前并不配佩上面的位置,而美债目前的位置,美元是走在最前面的、美债随后;而今天市场新闻报道的在隔夜sof利率市场期权和美债期权的开仓、在提前走退潮完马上进入拉升期,不是盘整期、其开仓的基准是:特朗普喜欢搞事,只要特朗普喜欢搞事就会压低盘整期并推动进入拉升期的叙事,
主神级交易员鄧文
02-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
这也说明:贝森特的操盘手法跟耶伦一样:在市场受冲击的时候,利用金额市场广度的扩张来进行对冲操作,二4月的关税日就是上限,
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犹太民族擒获世界帝国的难度,比我们上下几千年的历史上、皇子夺嫡擒获国公府的难度大多了,连朱隶也就擒获半个国公府而已、朱隶牛吧,犹太民族三次连续擒获世界帝国,真TM牛","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/537606583834088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":537604059324424,"gmtCreate":1772271958030,"gmtModify":1772276104035,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 犹太民族这波又要赢嘛了,全球化下就没有这种机会,逆全球化下、通过黄金又擒获了一个世界帝国,斯基当立首功、库什纳从功,看看前面的首功从功、路径一模一样,当年的西班牙帝国、大英帝国,现货黄金这波10年内到100万刀基本是稳了,不是10万刀,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 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</a> 相比于这次玩英伟达财报,打微软期权的末日对敲、微软更有新价比,因为英伟达这次可能上涨下跌或横排,而微软这波绝对只有一种情况:在目前位置要么上涨要么下跌,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 相比于这次玩英伟达财报,打微软期权的末日对敲、微软更有新价比,因为英伟达这次可能上涨下跌或横排,而微软这波绝对只有一种情况:在目前位置要么上涨要么下跌,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535733457809632","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535732150469512,"gmtCreate":1771814867900,"gmtModify":1771816432882,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535732150469512","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":630,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535731789280816,"gmtCreate":1771814849099,"gmtModify":1771816433055,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 我日,我最担心的是黄金现在就提前上涨,那我的路径成功率就在向0靠拢,目前什么关税违法、特朗普全球一刀切15%,打伊朗预期,这两个对黄金的上涨动能,都比不过特朗普团队信用在降低(特朗普推行的国策搞不定内部,),要加大拉伸黄金储备来补信用缺口,这个一波流就得涨到10000刀以上去、第二个是目前美帝金额市场,看事件冲击的进程VS各个资产走势的位置、这两者的不对称,凸显了这波黄金涨到5598还是太低了,我日,局势的发展与计划的路径目前倾斜度在加大,情况在变糟、","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535731789280816","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535717195560552,"gmtCreate":1771811297087,"gmtModify":1771811299730,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"最早的国内是90年代后期的门户网站和搜索,后面0几年的太阳能板和光伏、当年新余的赛维,后面的智能手机,再到1几年的移动互联网,然后是新能源汽车,现在的AI模型,看里面对比欧美的不同与相同,除了新能源电动车,","listText":"最早的国内是90年代后期的门户网站和搜索,后面0几年的太阳能板和光伏、当年新余的赛维,后面的智能手机,再到1几年的移动互联网,然后是新能源汽车,现在的AI模型,看里面对比欧美的不同与相同,除了新能源电动车,","text":"最早的国内是90年代后期的门户网站和搜索,后面0几年的太阳能板和光伏、当年新余的赛维,后面的智能手机,再到1几年的移动互联网,然后是新能源汽车,现在的AI模型,看里面对比欧美的不同与相同,除了新能源电动车,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535717195560552","repostId":"2613043223","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":130,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":535233431950872,"gmtCreate":1771691310612,"gmtModify":1771691322558,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 无聊","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 无聊","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 无聊","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/05ab2f0fb8324f5cfbd73823723b93ef","width":"1206","height":"2622"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/535233431950872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534401023521928,"gmtCreate":1771489888315,"gmtModify":1771491165105,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这波由格林兰岛-关税欧洲卖出美国- 微软大跌沃什鹰派- AI软件,坏事一起上的冲击波,目前在由过了高潮峰顶到退潮1/2位置,而整个美股市场各大板块的位置目前并不配佩上面的位置,而美债目前的位置,美元是走在最前面的、美债随后;而今天市场新闻报道的在隔夜sof利率市场期权和美债期权的开仓、在提前走退潮完马上进入拉升期,不是盘整期、其开仓的基准是:特朗普喜欢搞事,只要特朗普喜欢搞事就会压低盘整期并推动进入拉升期的叙事,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这波由格林兰岛-关税欧洲卖出美国- 微软大跌沃什鹰派- AI软件,坏事一起上的冲击波,目前在由过了高潮峰顶到退潮1/2位置,而整个美股市场各大板块的位置目前并不配佩上面的位置,而美债目前的位置,美元是走在最前面的、美债随后;而今天市场新闻报道的在隔夜sof利率市场期权和美债期权的开仓、在提前走退潮完马上进入拉升期,不是盘整期、其开仓的基准是:特朗普喜欢搞事,只要特朗普喜欢搞事就会压低盘整期并推动进入拉升期的叙事,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这波由格林兰岛-关税欧洲卖出美国- 微软大跌沃什鹰派- AI软件,坏事一起上的冲击波,目前在由过了高潮峰顶到退潮1/2位置,而整个美股市场各大板块的位置目前并不配佩上面的位置,而美债目前的位置,美元是走在最前面的、美债随后;而今天市场新闻报道的在隔夜sof利率市场期权和美债期权的开仓、在提前走退潮完马上进入拉升期,不是盘整期、其开仓的基准是:特朗普喜欢搞事,只要特朗普喜欢搞事就会压低盘整期并推动进入拉升期的叙事,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534401023521928","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":920,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":534009096787352,"gmtCreate":1771394322351,"gmtModify":1771398467502,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这也说明:贝森特的操盘手法跟耶伦一样:在市场受冲击的时候,利用金额市场广度的扩张来进行对冲操作,二4月的关税日就是上限,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 这也说明:贝森特的操盘手法跟耶伦一样:在市场受冲击的时候,利用金额市场广度的扩张来进行对冲操作,二4月的关税日就是上限,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 这也说明:贝森特的操盘手法跟耶伦一样:在市场受冲击的时候,利用金额市场广度的扩张来进行对冲操作,二4月的关税日就是上限,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/534009096787352","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":227021600936000,"gmtCreate":1696433264212,"gmtModify":1696433907902,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":66,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227021600936000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13380,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283206034890968,"gmtCreate":1710170483770,"gmtModify":1710173759693,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283206034890968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":19908,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000298","authorId":"9000000000000298","name":"海明威78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ce3ebb7bc89a87c064908623092f59","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000298","authorIdStr":"9000000000000298"},"content":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来","text":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来","html":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000300","authorId":"9000000000000300","name":"股友之家00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf1da32355d7fcd455bcb763ef83cd5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000300","authorIdStr":"9000000000000300"},"content":"数波浪这方面你是专业的","text":"数波浪这方面你是专业的","html":"数波浪这方面你是专业的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296265465610488,"gmtCreate":1713368123907,"gmtModify":1713368146050,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bd778bf478de10764ec3f2e9cc5a4e","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296265465610488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000318","authorId":"9000000000000318","name":"超跌反弹NS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78783ce3e429ee2122ef7f1aa2114299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000318","authorIdStr":"9000000000000318"},"content":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍","text":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍","html":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010328","authorId":"10000000000010328","name":"准备好了大忽悠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05637de10fca666e37d2c570e52012a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010328","authorIdStr":"10000000000010328"},"content":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。","text":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。","html":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665736854,"gmtCreate":1667481176278,"gmtModify":1667481178157,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665736854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6637,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295992155099384,"gmtCreate":1713293827416,"gmtModify":1713320003661,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295992155099384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":24775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437340877473194","authorId":"3437340877473194","name":"Cjfsky201610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/990f83875eb3fd831df53d5601c8bd7c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3437340877473194","authorIdStr":"3437340877473194"},"content":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。","text":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。","html":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000255","authorId":"9000000000000255","name":"森林之王伍德","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b281a4dbc6b48ecea5562613495fa83","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000255","authorIdStr":"9000000000000255"},"content":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!","text":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!","html":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297068569248032,"gmtCreate":1713555242326,"gmtModify":1713701019297,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297068569248032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37930,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117540333361860","authorId":"4117540333361860","name":"Frank fire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c42af94733e5af7f3855c918c24520d6","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4117540333361860","authorIdStr":"4117540333361860"},"content":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?","text":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?","html":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010286","authorId":"10000000000010286","name":"老地方等你","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdd403049856caa030d5acaf3e72506","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010286","authorIdStr":"10000000000010286"},"content":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。","text":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。","html":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430946821087544,"gmtCreate":1746182446987,"gmtModify":1746182448714,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","listText":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","text":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430946821087544","repostId":"2532731892","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"森焱鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357b7a5fb495989a98ac3bdd933533b7","crmLevel":3,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"3443259955812259","authorIdStr":"3443259955812259"},"content":"终于看到了8年前的标题!","text":"终于看到了8年前的标题!","html":"终于看到了8年前的标题!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355107914191120,"gmtCreate":1727705825216,"gmtModify":1727705992948,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355107914191120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":15157,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4165787134050210","authorIdStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!","text":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!","html":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289696765968592,"gmtCreate":1711733382902,"gmtModify":1711735018284,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289696765968592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":36627,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000541","authorId":"9000000000000541","name":"新年新开始","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000541","authorIdStr":"9000000000000541"},"content":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。","text":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。","html":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000211","authorId":"9000000000000211","name":"咪咕蜡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/075bc3e15bde527a282c42a96ff35a51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"9000000000000211","authorIdStr":"9000000000000211"},"content":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。","text":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。","html":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373021227528576,"gmtCreate":1732115208025,"gmtModify":1732117756558,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3503176530513854","authorIdStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373021227528576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16392,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3440540550401156","authorIdStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????","text":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????","html":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010339","authorId":"10000000000010339","name":"究极失眠患者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ad1b1423595443786a811bd5d0be2b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"10000000000010339","authorIdStr":"10000000000010339"},"content":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享","text":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享","html":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}