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主神级交易员鄧文
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主神级交易员鄧文
04-30 12:39
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
天下大势: 拉涨黄金、搞低汇率、大搞科技,这会成为逆全球化开端的竞赛模式,哪个国家不跟进、哪个国家在逆全球化开端就要淘汰出局,天下大势,
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-25
新王上任,这诚意不咋滴,
报道:苹果计划为iPhone 18系列进行大量芯片和内存升级
主神级交易员鄧文
04-24
$英特尔(INTC)$
贝森特操盘术真的很差劲,不是一般的差,拉涨黄金BTC姨太作为水源,大方水,然后通过美元贬值和AI大科技来进行货币乘数的扩张,(大基建和大房地产没戏、),你贝森特要是换种玩法,通过社保医保来进行货币乘数扩张,那还是个人物,还是那句话,黄金拉到了5598美元、其水足够这波反单里面的微软、英特尔、甲骨文成为最亮的崽,而龙头英伟达在特朗普怂了后、并没有跌到位,这波反单可惜了龙头英伟达了,
主神级交易员鄧文
04-24
$英特尔(INTC)$
黄金拉到1万刀/盏司;英特尔市值到2万亿刀应该没人反对吧,也就是还有6倍,股价快500,
主神级交易员鄧文
04-24
$英特尔(INTC)$
啊,兄弟们,下波黄金拉到8000美元/盏司之时,就是小尔子到200之日,
主神级交易员鄧文
04-24
有波动率均值回归,同样也有间距均值回归,
多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达
主神级交易员鄧文
04-24
人家在做多AI产业广度,毕竟微软与英伟达的间距太大了,
多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达
主神级交易员鄧文
04-21
首先得搞清楚社会前进是建立在什么上面:多了块田、低通胀、还是生产率繁荣, 二是生产率繁荣建立在什么上面:以大QE玩法、以黄金储备玩法、还是像二战红利、全球化红利,互联网是建立在苏联解体全球化1.0基础上的,包括移动妇联网,而AI人工智能从22年开始叙事、说明是建立在大QE基础上的,而建立在冷战时期黄金储备玩法上的是:70年代-苏联解体89年,这个里面只有里根循环,在布雷森解体前的生产率是建立在二战红利上的,源头都没有搞清楚、还相当美联储主席、想学格林斯潘,日梦,
想学格林斯潘?沃什的AI降通胀逻辑,他未来的同事们并不买账
主神级交易员鄧文
04-20
手机版本看不到图片,
伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火
主神级交易员鄧文
04-20
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
搞不定被制裁了快50年的伊朗,还在这边忽悠自己、自己给自己带高帽,没谁了, 趁目前美国军备拉垮、还没智能化的时候,目前是联合毛熊一起去瓜分北美大陆的最佳时机,欧盟肯定巴不得、他们又可以做老大了包括英国,日本也巴不得、自己脖子上的绳子没了、再得个珍珠港和中途豆,大家都得利,唯一的冤大头就是美国,但美国都没了就不算冤大头了,这局全世界都得利,你好我好大家好,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-18
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对特朗普也是无语:一是喜欢甩锅、经济差都是拜登的事,好的都是我的功劳;二是喜欢吹牛,我一上任24小时内解决俄乌冲突;三是没魄力喜欢退缩,看去年今年;四是一点信誉都没有,问哈梅内伊最有发言权;五是:自己都做了、还不准媒体报道,上面五点,把地痞流氓无赖的特征展现的淋漓尽致,👍
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战路径,这意味着以这两人为主的供和挡势力不可能走越战路径;而珉主挡这边,像复制路径、可惜没有这样的人带头,加州州长pass、当时做中间人的污点就是尼可松2.0,哈哈姐已经失败一次、给机会不中用啊,一眼看去:没人;
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$标普500(.SPX)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$英特尔(INTC)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高、决定了标普、纳指在年底涨多高,以年内拉到8000刀算,标普在年底要拉到9000点左右、纳指在38000点左右,AI产业的半导体、AI软件、AI计算:英伟达拉到350,特斯拉拉到800左右,微软由于走势慢年底妥妥的与前高平齐,甲骨文650左右,英特尔年底就可以到200,要是年底黄金拉到10000刀,以上的年底价格全部上调25%,
$标普500(.SPX)$
$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
$苹果(AAPL)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,
$苹果(AAPL)$
$英伟达(NVDA)$
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
意思是:这波财报季,超预期的都参考高盛,先跌、然后低开高走;不及预期的参考富国银行,下跌,
奈飞Q1业绩超预期增长但指引逊色,“灵魂人物”董事长将离任,股价盘后跌近9%
主神级交易员鄧文
04-17
一是:跟爱泼斯坦案的关系都没撇清楚,二是:其代表的以雅思兰黛为资本利益的标签,三是:过往任职美联储的糟糕表现,四是亿万富翁的标签相对于上面三点已经不重要了,
为下周听证会“预热”,美国民主党议员猛批沃什:上亿资产“不披露”,甘为特朗普“傀儡”
主神级交易员鄧文
04-16
$特斯拉(TSLA)$
越南战争PK现在的美伊战争:世界帝国的十字路口: 越战:二战红利的家底快吃完了,刚好亚洲利益上来了;打,优点:虽然军备拉垮,但通过三年战争也知道了自己军备拉垮并发展升级的方向,升级,虽然苦了国内、物价高涨、发展机会停下来,布雷森还是玩的罗斯福那一套,其他国家看美帝搞不定越南,那不好意思,我们也要搞大动作,但当时的核心美帝还是抓住了:军备升级,这才是世界帝国的基础,其他的什么滞涨、高利率、别国搞东搞西的、别来防癌喔发展武备;事后也验证了发展武备的正确性,看信息化战争的海海湾战争; 现在的美伊战争:军备拉垮,跟当时越战一样的拉垮,现在和谈并结束战争的话,那么将会是一种新的情景,世界帝国衰落的开始这种概率最大,如果再打、跟越战一样陷入泥潭,那重走一篇当年的路就可以;要是再打并搞定了伊朗和霍什么海峡、这种概率太低了直接pass,
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06:37","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"报道:苹果计划为iPhone 18系列进行大量芯片和内存升级","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2630887350","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"iPhone 18系列硬件配置重磅升级,据报道拟维持现有定价不变。iPhone 18全系列搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片;全系标配12GB运行内存,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义;基带芯片与无线模块也推陈出新。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>iPhone 18系列硬件配置重磅升级,据报道拟维持现有定价不变。iPhone 18全系列搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片;全系标配12GB运行内存,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义;基带芯片与无线模块也推陈出新。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>正筹备对iPhone 18系列实施全面硬件升级,涵盖首款2纳米芯片、新一代自研5G基带及标配内存扩容,同时据报道拟维持现有定价不变。</p><p>据媒体报道,<strong>iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。全系列标配12GB内存,较现有机型实现跨越式提升。同时将推出第二代C2 5G基带芯片,有望首次支持毫米波频段,并引入新一代N2无线网络连接模块。</strong></p><p><strong>上述升级若与价格不变策略同步落地,将显著强化苹果在中高端智能手机市场的竞争优势。</strong></p><p>硬件规格大幅跃升叠加内存价格高企,苹果能否维持价格冻结,目前尚无定论。天风国际证券郭明𫓹此前表示,苹果服务业务的强劲盈利能力为公司提供了消化成本上涨的空间,但最终是否涨价,仍有待官方正式发布时揭晓。</p><h2 id=\"id_2565462071\">首款2纳米芯片亮相</h2><p>iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。</p><p>标准版iPhone 18将配备A20芯片,而iPhone 18 Pro及iPhone 18 Pro Max则搭载性能更强的A20 Pro,延续此前高低配型号的芯片差异化策略。</p><p>值得关注的是,即便基础版iPhone 18在部分环节有所缩减(包括屏幕规格下调),苹果仍计划为全系配备最优内核配置,意在提升标准版机型吸引力。</p><h2 id=\"id_2807659691\">12GB内存标配,基带与无线连接全面迭代</h2><p>全系标配12GB运行内存是本次升级的核心亮点之一。</p><p>更大的内存容量将直接提升设备在本地运行AI指令时的流畅度,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义。同时改善后台应用的驻留能力,并为游戏画质优化提供更充裕的内存资源。</p><p>在基带芯片层面,苹果计划推出C2,作为C1及C1X的迭代产品。C2有望成为苹果首款支持毫米波的自研基带芯片,并通过新无线电非地面网络(NR-NTN)标准带来升级版卫星连接能力。</p><p>此外,新一代N2无线网络模块也将随iPhone 18系列首次亮相,但目前市场对其相较N1的具体性能改善幅度尚不明确。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>报道:苹果计划为iPhone 18系列进行大量芯片和内存升级</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n报道:苹果计划为iPhone 18系列进行大量芯片和内存升级\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-25 06:37</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>iPhone 18系列硬件配置重磅升级,据报道拟维持现有定价不变。iPhone 18全系列搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片;全系标配12GB运行内存,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义;基带芯片与无线模块也推陈出新。</p></blockquote><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">苹果</a>正筹备对iPhone 18系列实施全面硬件升级,涵盖首款2纳米芯片、新一代自研5G基带及标配内存扩容,同时据报道拟维持现有定价不变。</p><p>据媒体报道,<strong>iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。全系列标配12GB内存,较现有机型实现跨越式提升。同时将推出第二代C2 5G基带芯片,有望首次支持毫米波频段,并引入新一代N2无线网络连接模块。</strong></p><p><strong>上述升级若与价格不变策略同步落地,将显著强化苹果在中高端智能手机市场的竞争优势。</strong></p><p>硬件规格大幅跃升叠加内存价格高企,苹果能否维持价格冻结,目前尚无定论。天风国际证券郭明𫓹此前表示,苹果服务业务的强劲盈利能力为公司提供了消化成本上涨的空间,但最终是否涨价,仍有待官方正式发布时揭晓。</p><h2 id=\"id_2565462071\">首款2纳米芯片亮相</h2><p>iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。</p><p>标准版iPhone 18将配备A20芯片,而iPhone 18 Pro及iPhone 18 Pro Max则搭载性能更强的A20 Pro,延续此前高低配型号的芯片差异化策略。</p><p>值得关注的是,即便基础版iPhone 18在部分环节有所缩减(包括屏幕规格下调),苹果仍计划为全系配备最优内核配置,意在提升标准版机型吸引力。</p><h2 id=\"id_2807659691\">12GB内存标配,基带与无线连接全面迭代</h2><p>全系标配12GB运行内存是本次升级的核心亮点之一。</p><p>更大的内存容量将直接提升设备在本地运行AI指令时的流畅度,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义。同时改善后台应用的驻留能力,并为游戏画质优化提供更充裕的内存资源。</p><p>在基带芯片层面,苹果计划推出C2,作为C1及C1X的迭代产品。C2有望成为苹果首款支持毫米波的自研基带芯片,并通过新无线电非地面网络(NR-NTN)标准带来升级版卫星连接能力。</p><p>此外,新一代N2无线网络模块也将随iPhone 18系列首次亮相,但目前市场对其相较N1的具体性能改善幅度尚不明确。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/052d0d3a6389985cf72883e9c3047ae4","relate_stocks":{"LU0154236417.USD":"BGF US FLEXIBLE EQUITY \"A2\" ACC","LU0726765562.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USD HEDGED) INC","LU2381873111.SGD":"BGF SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL EQUITY HIGH INCOME \"A6\" (SGDHDG) INC","LU0080751232.USD":"富达环球多元动力基金A","LU2125154778.USD":"ALLSPRING GLOBAL EQUITY ENHANCED INCOME \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2347655073.USD":"JPM GLOBAL INCOME \"A\" (USDHDG) INC A","LU1206712785.SGD":"Aviva Investors - Multi-Strategy Target Return Ah SGD","LU0070217475.USD":"JPM GLOBAL SELECT EQUITY \"A\" 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ACC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770869","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2630887350","content_text":"iPhone 18系列硬件配置重磅升级,据报道拟维持现有定价不变。iPhone 18全系列搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片;全系标配12GB运行内存,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义;基带芯片与无线模块也推陈出新。苹果正筹备对iPhone 18系列实施全面硬件升级,涵盖首款2纳米芯片、新一代自研5G基带及标配内存扩容,同时据报道拟维持现有定价不变。据媒体报道,iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。全系列标配12GB内存,较现有机型实现跨越式提升。同时将推出第二代C2 5G基带芯片,有望首次支持毫米波频段,并引入新一代N2无线网络连接模块。上述升级若与价格不变策略同步落地,将显著强化苹果在中高端智能手机市场的竞争优势。硬件规格大幅跃升叠加内存价格高企,苹果能否维持价格冻结,目前尚无定论。天风国际证券郭明𫓹此前表示,苹果服务业务的强劲盈利能力为公司提供了消化成本上涨的空间,但最终是否涨价,仍有待官方正式发布时揭晓。首款2纳米芯片亮相iPhone 18系列将搭载苹果首款基于2纳米制程的自研芯片。标准版iPhone 18将配备A20芯片,而iPhone 18 Pro及iPhone 18 Pro Max则搭载性能更强的A20 Pro,延续此前高低配型号的芯片差异化策略。值得关注的是,即便基础版iPhone 18在部分环节有所缩减(包括屏幕规格下调),苹果仍计划为全系配备最优内核配置,意在提升标准版机型吸引力。12GB内存标配,基带与无线连接全面迭代全系标配12GB运行内存是本次升级的核心亮点之一。更大的内存容量将直接提升设备在本地运行AI指令时的流畅度,对端侧AI战略具有实质意义。同时改善后台应用的驻留能力,并为游戏画质优化提供更充裕的内存资源。在基带芯片层面,苹果计划推出C2,作为C1及C1X的迭代产品。C2有望成为苹果首款支持毫米波的自研基带芯片,并通过新无线电非地面网络(NR-NTN)标准带来升级版卫星连接能力。此外,新一代N2无线网络模块也将随iPhone 18系列首次亮相,但目前市场对其相较N1的具体性能改善幅度尚不明确。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"APLY":0.6,"AAPD":0.6,"AAPU":0.6,"AAPY":0.6,"AAPW":0.6,"AAPX":0.6,"AAPL":2,"AAPB":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":265,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557078764352672,"gmtCreate":1777037342561,"gmtModify":1777037345249,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 贝森特操盘术真的很差劲,不是一般的差,拉涨黄金BTC姨太作为水源,大方水,然后通过美元贬值和AI大科技来进行货币乘数的扩张,(大基建和大房地产没戏、),你贝森特要是换种玩法,通过社保医保来进行货币乘数扩张,那还是个人物,还是那句话,黄金拉到了5598美元、其水足够这波反单里面的微软、英特尔、甲骨文成为最亮的崽,而龙头英伟达在特朗普怂了后、并没有跌到位,这波反单可惜了龙头英伟达了,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 贝森特操盘术真的很差劲,不是一般的差,拉涨黄金BTC姨太作为水源,大方水,然后通过美元贬值和AI大科技来进行货币乘数的扩张,(大基建和大房地产没戏、),你贝森特要是换种玩法,通过社保医保来进行货币乘数扩张,那还是个人物,还是那句话,黄金拉到了5598美元、其水足够这波反单里面的微软、英特尔、甲骨文成为最亮的崽,而龙头英伟达在特朗普怂了后、并没有跌到位,这波反单可惜了龙头英伟达了,","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 贝森特操盘术真的很差劲,不是一般的差,拉涨黄金BTC姨太作为水源,大方水,然后通过美元贬值和AI大科技来进行货币乘数的扩张,(大基建和大房地产没戏、),你贝森特要是换种玩法,通过社保医保来进行货币乘数扩张,那还是个人物,还是那句话,黄金拉到了5598美元、其水足够这波反单里面的微软、英特尔、甲骨文成为最亮的崽,而龙头英伟达在特朗普怂了后、并没有跌到位,这波反单可惜了龙头英伟达了,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557078764352672","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557077132535568,"gmtCreate":1777036928929,"gmtModify":1777036930982,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 黄金拉到1万刀/盏司;英特尔市值到2万亿刀应该没人反对吧,也就是还有6倍,股价快500,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 黄金拉到1万刀/盏司;英特尔市值到2万亿刀应该没人反对吧,也就是还有6倍,股价快500,","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 黄金拉到1万刀/盏司;英特尔市值到2万亿刀应该没人反对吧,也就是还有6倍,股价快500,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557077132535568","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557076652401792,"gmtCreate":1777036743860,"gmtModify":1777036745857,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 啊,兄弟们,下波黄金拉到8000美元/盏司之时,就是小尔子到200之日,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> 啊,兄弟们,下波黄金拉到8000美元/盏司之时,就是小尔子到200之日,","text":"$英特尔(INTC)$ 啊,兄弟们,下波黄金拉到8000美元/盏司之时,就是小尔子到200之日,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557076652401792","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":328,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557037164823776,"gmtCreate":1777004493879,"gmtModify":1777004496591,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"有波动率均值回归,同样也有间距均值回归,","listText":"有波动率均值回归,同样也有间距均值回归,","text":"有波动率均值回归,同样也有间距均值回归,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557037164823776","repostId":"2629864080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629864080","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776987504,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629864080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 07:38","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629864080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"《大空头》原型投资人Michael Burry周四宣布建仓微软,增持Adobe、PayPal等软件股,同时买入纳指ETF及英伟达看跌期权做空科技大盘与半导体。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0949170426.SGD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 SGD-H","LU1645745479.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKDHDG) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) 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Burry买入京东和阿里巴巴股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SOXX":1.82,"ANV":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MSFT":2,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"NVDA":2,"MSFL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":161,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":557035674302600,"gmtCreate":1777004208764,"gmtModify":1777004212007,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"人家在做多AI产业广度,毕竟微软与英伟达的间距太大了,","listText":"人家在做多AI产业广度,毕竟微软与英伟达的间距太大了,","text":"人家在做多AI产业广度,毕竟微软与英伟达的间距太大了,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/557035674302600","repostId":"2629864080","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2629864080","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776987504,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2629864080?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-24 07:38","market":"fut","language":"zh","title":"多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2629864080","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"《大空头》原型投资人Michael Burry周四宣布建仓微软,增持Adobe、PayPal等软件股,同时买入纳指ETF及英伟达看跌期权做空科技大盘与半导体。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; 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class=\"title\">\n多软件、空芯片!“大空头”买入微软,做空英伟达\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-24 07:38</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>《大空头》原型,知名投资者Michael Burry,正在构建一套方向相互对立的科技股投资组合。一边增持软件板块个股,一边通过期权押注科技大盘及半导体板块下跌。</p>\n<p>据Burry本人在Substack发文披露,他于周四买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MSFT\">微软</a>股票,并同步增仓MSCI、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ADBE\">Adobe</a>,进一步扩大对软件行业的多头敞口。</p>\n<p>与此同时,他买入了Invesco QQQ Trust ETF的2027年1月及2027年3月看跌期权,以及<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">英伟达</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EEMA\">iShares</a>半导体ETF的2027年1月看跌期权,显示其对科技板块整体及芯片行业的中期走势持谨慎态度。</p>\n<p>上述布局将软件股多头与纳斯达克指数及半导体板块空头并置,呈现出明显的板块轮动与对冲逻辑,对关注科技行业的投资者具有重要参考意义。</p>\n<p>另外,4月10日,Michael Burry买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>股票。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/556acfb895c7cc721517dba494c0775b","relate_stocks":{"IE00BK4W5M84.HKD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (HKD) ACC","LU0949170426.SGD":"Blackrock Global Multi-Asset Income A6 SGD-H","LU1645745479.HKD":"ALLIANZ EUROPE INCOME AND GROWTH \"AM\" (HKDHDG) INC","IE00BK4W5L77.USD":"HSBC GLOBAL FUNDS ICAV US EQUITY INDEX \"HC\" (USD) ACC","IE00BYXW3230.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL DYNAMIC ASSET ALLOCATION \"AA\" (USD) ACC","LU2417539215.USD":"ALLIANZ GLOBAL INCOME \"AMF\" (USD) INC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) 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Burry买入京东和阿里巴巴股票。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVD":0.6,"DIPS":0.6,"NVDS":0.6,"NVDB":0.6,"MSFO":0.6,"MSFY":0.6,"MSFU":0.6,"NVDG":0.6,"SOXX":1.82,"ANV":0.6,"NVDO":0.6,"NVDL":0.6,"MSFD":0.6,"NVII":0.6,"NVDQ":0.6,"NVDW":0.6,"MSFT":2,"NVDX":0.6,"NVDU":0.6,"NVYY":0.6,"MSFX":0.6,"NVDD":0.6,"MSFW":0.6,"NVDA":2,"MSFL":0.6,"NVDY":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":308,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555886587835376,"gmtCreate":1776747743326,"gmtModify":1776747747072,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"首先得搞清楚社会前进是建立在什么上面:多了块田、低通胀、还是生产率繁荣, 二是生产率繁荣建立在什么上面:以大QE玩法、以黄金储备玩法、还是像二战红利、全球化红利,互联网是建立在苏联解体全球化1.0基础上的,包括移动妇联网,而AI人工智能从22年开始叙事、说明是建立在大QE基础上的,而建立在冷战时期黄金储备玩法上的是:70年代-苏联解体89年,这个里面只有里根循环,在布雷森解体前的生产率是建立在二战红利上的,源头都没有搞清楚、还相当美联储主席、想学格林斯潘,日梦,","listText":"首先得搞清楚社会前进是建立在什么上面:多了块田、低通胀、还是生产率繁荣, 二是生产率繁荣建立在什么上面:以大QE玩法、以黄金储备玩法、还是像二战红利、全球化红利,互联网是建立在苏联解体全球化1.0基础上的,包括移动妇联网,而AI人工智能从22年开始叙事、说明是建立在大QE基础上的,而建立在冷战时期黄金储备玩法上的是:70年代-苏联解体89年,这个里面只有里根循环,在布雷森解体前的生产率是建立在二战红利上的,源头都没有搞清楚、还相当美联储主席、想学格林斯潘,日梦,","text":"首先得搞清楚社会前进是建立在什么上面:多了块田、低通胀、还是生产率繁荣, 二是生产率繁荣建立在什么上面:以大QE玩法、以黄金储备玩法、还是像二战红利、全球化红利,互联网是建立在苏联解体全球化1.0基础上的,包括移动妇联网,而AI人工智能从22年开始叙事、说明是建立在大QE基础上的,而建立在冷战时期黄金储备玩法上的是:70年代-苏联解体89年,这个里面只有里根循环,在布雷森解体前的生产率是建立在二战红利上的,源头都没有搞清楚、还相当美联储主席、想学格林斯潘,日梦,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555886587835376","repostId":"2628747131","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2628747131","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776690647,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2628747131?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-20 21:10","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"想学格林斯潘?沃什的AI降通胀逻辑,他未来的同事们并不买账","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628747131","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"“新美联储通讯社”、知名记者Nick Timiraos指出,沃什押注AI生产力红利、为降息铺路的逻辑正遭美联储内部系统性质疑。耶伦等认为短期难获FOMC支持,官员普遍担忧AI当前更多推升需求与通胀。叠加中东冲突冲击供应链,沃什试图复刻格林斯潘的政策路径,正面临现实环境与政策共识的双重掣肘。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什押注人工智能生产力红利,试图复刻格林斯潘1990年代的货币政策传奇,为大幅降息提供理论依据。</p>\n<p>然而,在“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报知名记者Nick Timiraos看来,<strong>这一逻辑正遭遇来自美联储内部的系统性质疑,而中东冲突进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险,</strong></p>\n<p>Timiraos在最新报告中指出,多位现任及前任美联储官员已相继发出明确但措辞克制的警示信号。前美联储主席耶伦直言,"我真的不认为FOMC在短期内会接受这一套。"圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则在本月的一次演讲中将提前降息定性为"冒险之举"。</p>\n<p><strong>周二,沃什将出席参议院提名确认听证会。若获确认,沃什将于5月中旬接掌美联储,届时面临的是通胀连续六年高于2%目标、财政赤字高企、地缘冲突持续扰动供应链的复杂局面——这与格林斯潘当年所处的宏观环境存在根本差异。</strong>市场正密切关注沃什在听证会上的表态,以判断其提名前构建的政策框架在多大程度上仍将坚守。</p>\n<h2>AI生产力逻辑:降息的理论基础</h2>\n<p>沃什的核心论点结构清晰:AI浪潮将大幅提升劳动生产率,企业可以在不推高价格的前提下提高工资,或以更少人力完成同等产出,从而压低劳动力成本。这一机制将在不重燃通胀的条件下为降息创造空间。</p>\n<p>据Timiraos报道,沃什去年秋天在一档财经播客中表示,生产力提升带来的通胀下行效应不会立即反映在官方数据中,这将给依赖数据决策的央行官员制造两难困境,"他们将不得不下一个赌注。"他同时警告,若美联储领导层判断失误,可能以"经济过热"为由压制这轮生产力繁荣,重蹈过去六七年间多次决策失误的覆辙。</p>\n<p>财政部长Scott Bessent为这一逻辑背书,建议外界重读格林斯潘传记,了解他如何正确地让经济在火热状态下运行,并指出当前生产力繁荣尚处萌芽阶段,但已为政策调整提供了理论支撑。沃什的导师、亿万富翁Stanley Druckenmiller则向英国《金融时报》表示,沃什通过管理涉及科技公司的私募股权投资,积累了对技术影响经济的深刻判断力,对AI发展速度和颠覆性潜力的理解远超普通宏观经济学家。</p>\n<h2>格林斯潘类比:历史相似,处境迥异</h2>\n<p>沃什及特朗普政府官员反复援引的历史先例,是格林斯潘在1996至1997年间的决策:彼时格林斯潘力排主张加息的同僚,押注互联网革命驱动的生产力繁荣将在经济加速增长的同时维持低通胀,最终被历史证明正确。</p>\n<p>然而,多位美联储官员指出,这一类比存在根本性缺陷。其一,当年的政策辩论是"维持利率还是加息",而非"是否降息"——1990年代中期通胀已降至数十年来首次触及2%,联邦预算赤字正转向盈余;今天,通胀已连续六年超标,赤字则攀升至战时或衰退期外罕见的水平。其二,1990年代全球贸易体系扩张带来的廉价进口品持续压低物价,而当前关税、逆全球化与地缘冲突正产生相反效果。</p>\n<p>此外,权威性问题同样不容忽视。利率决策由12人组成的联邦公开市场委员会集体作出,主席的影响力高度依赖长期积累的公信力。格林斯潘在作出那次生产力判断时,已在主席位置上耕耘逾十年。耶伦在上周的一场会议上表示,"我不认为沃什进门时就具备那种级别的公信力。"</p>\n<h2>内部质疑:需求先行,通胀风险犹存</h2>\n<p>美联储内部对沃什逻辑的抵触,集中于一个关键分歧:AI目前究竟在拉动需求还是扩充供给?</p>\n<p>多位美联储官员指出,AI热潮当前的主要表现是数据中心建设热潮、电价飙升以及股市上涨带动的消费扩张——这些均构成短期价格上行压力,而非生产力提升带来的供给侧扩张。Musalem在演讲中反转了沃什的叙事框架,指出真正"有利于增长"的立场恰恰是维持低通胀,而非以未来生产力收益为由提前放松货币政策。</p>\n<p>前美联储官员、现任纽约梅隆投资管理公司首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出,AI"目前并未对生产力增加多少贡献",并强调沃什及其盟友援引的案例大多来自"生产技术的企业,而非使用技术的企业"。前圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard措辞更为直接:<strong>AI的广泛应用不会"像硅谷希望的那么快,那些人是在为自己的IPO造势。"</strong></p>\n<p>诺贝尔奖得主Daron Acemoglu则表示,"无论是经济理论还是数据"均无法支撑技术乐观主义者的看涨情绪。</p>\n<h2>格林斯潘真正的底牌</h2>\n<p>即便沃什的方向判断正确,他仍面临一道难以绕过的程序性门槛:如何说服FOMC。</p>\n<p>据亲历1996年9月FOMC会议的人士回忆,格林斯潘当年能够说服耶伦等同僚,依靠的并非单纯直觉,而是扎实的微观数据——零售商部署库存管理系统、卡车司机使用GPS、制造商采用计算机辅助设计,这些来自实体经济终端用户的证据构成了他论点的基础。</p>\n<p>前美联储副主席Don Kohn指出,格林斯潘是一位极为注重数据的人,他的直觉背后是挖掘出了其他人未曾发现的深层信息。</p>\n<p>相比之下,沃什目前援引的AI应用案例主要来自技术生产端,而非经济体中广泛采用技术的企业。这意味着,若要在利率决策会议上推销"AI生产力繁荣"理论,他必须向委员会呈现可量化的经济数据,而非依赖硅谷的叙事。</p>\n<h2>中东冲击重塑方程式</h2>\n<p>自沃什提名前构建上述论点以来,外部环境已发生显著变化。Timiraos指出,伊朗战争是最新也是最尖锐的冲击,进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险。</p>\n<p>即便是沃什的支持者也开始踩刹车。曾任财政部高级顾问、现任SMBC Americas首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna表示,"凯文的观点是正确的:AI确实可能推动一段时间的通胀下行",但伊朗战争已改变了方程式,"美联储应该等待。"</p>\n<p>BNP Paribas首席美国经济学家James Egelhof则表示,自沃什提出上述论点以来已发生一系列冲击,"与所有经验丰富的经济学家一样,我们预期沃什先生会根据新情况修正和更新其观点。"</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,沃什本人此前并非没有表达过审慎立场。他在2023年的一篇评论文章中,以美联储疫情后通胀预测的失误为据,指出"政策制定者不应将所有筹码押注在对低价格或任何其他事物的期望上。"周二的听证会,将是外界首次得以判断这一立场是否仍然有效的机会。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>想学格林斯潘?沃什的AI降通胀逻辑,他未来的同事们并不买账</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n想学格林斯潘?沃什的AI降通胀逻辑,他未来的同事们并不买账\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-20 21:10</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什押注人工智能生产力红利,试图复刻格林斯潘1990年代的货币政策传奇,为大幅降息提供理论依据。</p>\n<p>然而,在“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报知名记者Nick Timiraos看来,<strong>这一逻辑正遭遇来自美联储内部的系统性质疑,而中东冲突进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险,</strong></p>\n<p>Timiraos在最新报告中指出,多位现任及前任美联储官员已相继发出明确但措辞克制的警示信号。前美联储主席耶伦直言,"我真的不认为FOMC在短期内会接受这一套。"圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则在本月的一次演讲中将提前降息定性为"冒险之举"。</p>\n<p><strong>周二,沃什将出席参议院提名确认听证会。若获确认,沃什将于5月中旬接掌美联储,届时面临的是通胀连续六年高于2%目标、财政赤字高企、地缘冲突持续扰动供应链的复杂局面——这与格林斯潘当年所处的宏观环境存在根本差异。</strong>市场正密切关注沃什在听证会上的表态,以判断其提名前构建的政策框架在多大程度上仍将坚守。</p>\n<h2>AI生产力逻辑:降息的理论基础</h2>\n<p>沃什的核心论点结构清晰:AI浪潮将大幅提升劳动生产率,企业可以在不推高价格的前提下提高工资,或以更少人力完成同等产出,从而压低劳动力成本。这一机制将在不重燃通胀的条件下为降息创造空间。</p>\n<p>据Timiraos报道,沃什去年秋天在一档财经播客中表示,生产力提升带来的通胀下行效应不会立即反映在官方数据中,这将给依赖数据决策的央行官员制造两难困境,"他们将不得不下一个赌注。"他同时警告,若美联储领导层判断失误,可能以"经济过热"为由压制这轮生产力繁荣,重蹈过去六七年间多次决策失误的覆辙。</p>\n<p>财政部长Scott Bessent为这一逻辑背书,建议外界重读格林斯潘传记,了解他如何正确地让经济在火热状态下运行,并指出当前生产力繁荣尚处萌芽阶段,但已为政策调整提供了理论支撑。沃什的导师、亿万富翁Stanley Druckenmiller则向英国《金融时报》表示,沃什通过管理涉及科技公司的私募股权投资,积累了对技术影响经济的深刻判断力,对AI发展速度和颠覆性潜力的理解远超普通宏观经济学家。</p>\n<h2>格林斯潘类比:历史相似,处境迥异</h2>\n<p>沃什及特朗普政府官员反复援引的历史先例,是格林斯潘在1996至1997年间的决策:彼时格林斯潘力排主张加息的同僚,押注互联网革命驱动的生产力繁荣将在经济加速增长的同时维持低通胀,最终被历史证明正确。</p>\n<p>然而,多位美联储官员指出,这一类比存在根本性缺陷。其一,当年的政策辩论是"维持利率还是加息",而非"是否降息"——1990年代中期通胀已降至数十年来首次触及2%,联邦预算赤字正转向盈余;今天,通胀已连续六年超标,赤字则攀升至战时或衰退期外罕见的水平。其二,1990年代全球贸易体系扩张带来的廉价进口品持续压低物价,而当前关税、逆全球化与地缘冲突正产生相反效果。</p>\n<p>此外,权威性问题同样不容忽视。利率决策由12人组成的联邦公开市场委员会集体作出,主席的影响力高度依赖长期积累的公信力。格林斯潘在作出那次生产力判断时,已在主席位置上耕耘逾十年。耶伦在上周的一场会议上表示,"我不认为沃什进门时就具备那种级别的公信力。"</p>\n<h2>内部质疑:需求先行,通胀风险犹存</h2>\n<p>美联储内部对沃什逻辑的抵触,集中于一个关键分歧:AI目前究竟在拉动需求还是扩充供给?</p>\n<p>多位美联储官员指出,AI热潮当前的主要表现是数据中心建设热潮、电价飙升以及股市上涨带动的消费扩张——这些均构成短期价格上行压力,而非生产力提升带来的供给侧扩张。Musalem在演讲中反转了沃什的叙事框架,指出真正"有利于增长"的立场恰恰是维持低通胀,而非以未来生产力收益为由提前放松货币政策。</p>\n<p>前美联储官员、现任纽约梅隆投资管理公司首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出,AI"目前并未对生产力增加多少贡献",并强调沃什及其盟友援引的案例大多来自"生产技术的企业,而非使用技术的企业"。前圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard措辞更为直接:<strong>AI的广泛应用不会"像硅谷希望的那么快,那些人是在为自己的IPO造势。"</strong></p>\n<p>诺贝尔奖得主Daron Acemoglu则表示,"无论是经济理论还是数据"均无法支撑技术乐观主义者的看涨情绪。</p>\n<h2>格林斯潘真正的底牌</h2>\n<p>即便沃什的方向判断正确,他仍面临一道难以绕过的程序性门槛:如何说服FOMC。</p>\n<p>据亲历1996年9月FOMC会议的人士回忆,格林斯潘当年能够说服耶伦等同僚,依靠的并非单纯直觉,而是扎实的微观数据——零售商部署库存管理系统、卡车司机使用GPS、制造商采用计算机辅助设计,这些来自实体经济终端用户的证据构成了他论点的基础。</p>\n<p>前美联储副主席Don Kohn指出,格林斯潘是一位极为注重数据的人,他的直觉背后是挖掘出了其他人未曾发现的深层信息。</p>\n<p>相比之下,沃什目前援引的AI应用案例主要来自技术生产端,而非经济体中广泛采用技术的企业。这意味着,若要在利率决策会议上推销"AI生产力繁荣"理论,他必须向委员会呈现可量化的经济数据,而非依赖硅谷的叙事。</p>\n<h2>中东冲击重塑方程式</h2>\n<p>自沃什提名前构建上述论点以来,外部环境已发生显著变化。Timiraos指出,伊朗战争是最新也是最尖锐的冲击,进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险。</p>\n<p>即便是沃什的支持者也开始踩刹车。曾任财政部高级顾问、现任SMBC Americas首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna表示,"凯文的观点是正确的:AI确实可能推动一段时间的通胀下行",但伊朗战争已改变了方程式,"美联储应该等待。"</p>\n<p>BNP Paribas首席美国经济学家James Egelhof则表示,自沃什提出上述论点以来已发生一系列冲击,"与所有经验丰富的经济学家一样,我们预期沃什先生会根据新情况修正和更新其观点。"</p>\n<p>值得注意的是,沃什本人此前并非没有表达过审慎立场。他在2023年的一篇评论文章中,以美联储疫情后通胀预测的失误为据,指出"政策制定者不应将所有筹码押注在对低价格或任何其他事物的期望上。"周二的听证会,将是外界首次得以判断这一立场是否仍然有效的机会。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dad334200ed8073076115663398d5349","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","BK4581":"高盛持仓","BK4588":"碎股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770411","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2628747131","content_text":"特朗普提名的美联储主席人选凯文·沃什押注人工智能生产力红利,试图复刻格林斯潘1990年代的货币政策传奇,为大幅降息提供理论依据。\n然而,在“新美联储通讯社”、华尔街日报知名记者Nick Timiraos看来,这一逻辑正遭遇来自美联储内部的系统性质疑,而中东冲突进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险,\nTimiraos在最新报告中指出,多位现任及前任美联储官员已相继发出明确但措辞克制的警示信号。前美联储主席耶伦直言,\"我真的不认为FOMC在短期内会接受这一套。\"圣路易斯联储主席Alberto Musalem则在本月的一次演讲中将提前降息定性为\"冒险之举\"。\n周二,沃什将出席参议院提名确认听证会。若获确认,沃什将于5月中旬接掌美联储,届时面临的是通胀连续六年高于2%目标、财政赤字高企、地缘冲突持续扰动供应链的复杂局面——这与格林斯潘当年所处的宏观环境存在根本差异。市场正密切关注沃什在听证会上的表态,以判断其提名前构建的政策框架在多大程度上仍将坚守。\nAI生产力逻辑:降息的理论基础\n沃什的核心论点结构清晰:AI浪潮将大幅提升劳动生产率,企业可以在不推高价格的前提下提高工资,或以更少人力完成同等产出,从而压低劳动力成本。这一机制将在不重燃通胀的条件下为降息创造空间。\n据Timiraos报道,沃什去年秋天在一档财经播客中表示,生产力提升带来的通胀下行效应不会立即反映在官方数据中,这将给依赖数据决策的央行官员制造两难困境,\"他们将不得不下一个赌注。\"他同时警告,若美联储领导层判断失误,可能以\"经济过热\"为由压制这轮生产力繁荣,重蹈过去六七年间多次决策失误的覆辙。\n财政部长Scott Bessent为这一逻辑背书,建议外界重读格林斯潘传记,了解他如何正确地让经济在火热状态下运行,并指出当前生产力繁荣尚处萌芽阶段,但已为政策调整提供了理论支撑。沃什的导师、亿万富翁Stanley Druckenmiller则向英国《金融时报》表示,沃什通过管理涉及科技公司的私募股权投资,积累了对技术影响经济的深刻判断力,对AI发展速度和颠覆性潜力的理解远超普通宏观经济学家。\n格林斯潘类比:历史相似,处境迥异\n沃什及特朗普政府官员反复援引的历史先例,是格林斯潘在1996至1997年间的决策:彼时格林斯潘力排主张加息的同僚,押注互联网革命驱动的生产力繁荣将在经济加速增长的同时维持低通胀,最终被历史证明正确。\n然而,多位美联储官员指出,这一类比存在根本性缺陷。其一,当年的政策辩论是\"维持利率还是加息\",而非\"是否降息\"——1990年代中期通胀已降至数十年来首次触及2%,联邦预算赤字正转向盈余;今天,通胀已连续六年超标,赤字则攀升至战时或衰退期外罕见的水平。其二,1990年代全球贸易体系扩张带来的廉价进口品持续压低物价,而当前关税、逆全球化与地缘冲突正产生相反效果。\n此外,权威性问题同样不容忽视。利率决策由12人组成的联邦公开市场委员会集体作出,主席的影响力高度依赖长期积累的公信力。格林斯潘在作出那次生产力判断时,已在主席位置上耕耘逾十年。耶伦在上周的一场会议上表示,\"我不认为沃什进门时就具备那种级别的公信力。\"\n内部质疑:需求先行,通胀风险犹存\n美联储内部对沃什逻辑的抵触,集中于一个关键分歧:AI目前究竟在拉动需求还是扩充供给?\n多位美联储官员指出,AI热潮当前的主要表现是数据中心建设热潮、电价飙升以及股市上涨带动的消费扩张——这些均构成短期价格上行压力,而非生产力提升带来的供给侧扩张。Musalem在演讲中反转了沃什的叙事框架,指出真正\"有利于增长\"的立场恰恰是维持低通胀,而非以未来生产力收益为由提前放松货币政策。\n前美联储官员、现任纽约梅隆投资管理公司首席经济学家Vincent Reinhart指出,AI\"目前并未对生产力增加多少贡献\",并强调沃什及其盟友援引的案例大多来自\"生产技术的企业,而非使用技术的企业\"。前圣路易斯联储主席James Bullard措辞更为直接:AI的广泛应用不会\"像硅谷希望的那么快,那些人是在为自己的IPO造势。\"\n诺贝尔奖得主Daron Acemoglu则表示,\"无论是经济理论还是数据\"均无法支撑技术乐观主义者的看涨情绪。\n格林斯潘真正的底牌\n即便沃什的方向判断正确,他仍面临一道难以绕过的程序性门槛:如何说服FOMC。\n据亲历1996年9月FOMC会议的人士回忆,格林斯潘当年能够说服耶伦等同僚,依靠的并非单纯直觉,而是扎实的微观数据——零售商部署库存管理系统、卡车司机使用GPS、制造商采用计算机辅助设计,这些来自实体经济终端用户的证据构成了他论点的基础。\n前美联储副主席Don Kohn指出,格林斯潘是一位极为注重数据的人,他的直觉背后是挖掘出了其他人未曾发现的深层信息。\n相比之下,沃什目前援引的AI应用案例主要来自技术生产端,而非经济体中广泛采用技术的企业。这意味着,若要在利率决策会议上推销\"AI生产力繁荣\"理论,他必须向委员会呈现可量化的经济数据,而非依赖硅谷的叙事。\n中东冲击重塑方程式\n自沃什提名前构建上述论点以来,外部环境已发生显著变化。Timiraos指出,伊朗战争是最新也是最尖锐的冲击,进一步加剧了供应链压力和价格上行风险。\n即便是沃什的支持者也开始踩刹车。曾任财政部高级顾问、现任SMBC Americas首席经济学家Joseph Lavorgna表示,\"凯文的观点是正确的:AI确实可能推动一段时间的通胀下行\",但伊朗战争已改变了方程式,\"美联储应该等待。\"\nBNP Paribas首席美国经济学家James Egelhof则表示,自沃什提出上述论点以来已发生一系列冲击,\"与所有经验丰富的经济学家一样,我们预期沃什先生会根据新情况修正和更新其观点。\"\n值得注意的是,沃什本人此前并非没有表达过审慎立场。他在2023年的一篇评论文章中,以美联储疫情后通胀预测的失误为据,指出\"政策制定者不应将所有筹码押注在对低价格或任何其他事物的期望上。\"周二的听证会,将是外界首次得以判断这一立场是否仍然有效的机会。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555521631942216,"gmtCreate":1776659975521,"gmtModify":1776659977825,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"手机版本看不到图片,","listText":"手机版本看不到图片,","text":"手机版本看不到图片,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555521631942216","repostId":"1186584837","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1186584837","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据,旨在帮助投资者理解世界,做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1776513822,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186584837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-18 20:03","market":"sg","language":"zh","title":"伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186584837","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"伊朗方面尚未就此表态。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><strong>两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。</strong></p><p>海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)</p><p>英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。</p><p>航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。</p><p>美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。</p><p><strong>伊朗方面动态</strong></p><p>伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。</p><p>伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; 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height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n伊朗革命卫队向试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的油轮开火\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-18 20:03</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><strong>两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。</strong></p><p>海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)</p><p>英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。</p><p>航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。</p><p>美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。</p><p><strong>伊朗方面动态</strong></p><p>伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。</p><p>伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/8eb0f1ec1a037b8ad760d2e47cc43998","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186584837","content_text":"两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。海事情报公司“油轮追踪者”网站18日在社交媒体发文说,两艘试图穿越霍尔木兹海峡的印度船只被伊朗伊斯兰革命卫队海军逼退,其间出现开火情况。其中一艘是悬挂印度国旗的超大型油轮。伊朗方面尚未就此表态。(新华社)英国海上贸易行动办公室:一艘油轮的船长报告称,遭到两艘伊朗革命卫队炮艇接近。伊朗革命卫队的炮艇向油轮开火,油轮及其船员报告安全。航运消息人士:商船收到伊朗海军的无线电消息,霍尔木兹海峡再次关闭,禁止任何船只通行。美国中央司令部:美国军队正在对进入或离开伊朗港口和沿海地区的船只实施海上封锁。伊朗方面动态伊朗最高领袖穆杰塔巴:伊朗军队正在英勇地捍卫属于它的土地、水域和旗帜。伊朗副外长赛义德·哈提布扎德表示,伊朗永远不会接受美国对其港口的封锁或美国发出的任何其他“命令”。“未来永远不会有任何封锁,”他说。“殖民主义的时代必须终结,”他补充道。美国“不能向其他国家发号施令”。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZmain":2,"CLmain":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":555514106795560,"gmtCreate":1776658135761,"gmtModify":1776659714402,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 搞不定被制裁了快50年的伊朗,还在这边忽悠自己、自己给自己带高帽,没谁了, 趁目前美国军备拉垮、还没智能化的时候,目前是联合毛熊一起去瓜分北美大陆的最佳时机,欧盟肯定巴不得、他们又可以做老大了包括英国,日本也巴不得、自己脖子上的绳子没了、再得个珍珠港和中途豆,大家都得利,唯一的冤大头就是美国,但美国都没了就不算冤大头了,这局全世界都得利,你好我好大家好,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 搞不定被制裁了快50年的伊朗,还在这边忽悠自己、自己给自己带高帽,没谁了, 趁目前美国军备拉垮、还没智能化的时候,目前是联合毛熊一起去瓜分北美大陆的最佳时机,欧盟肯定巴不得、他们又可以做老大了包括英国,日本也巴不得、自己脖子上的绳子没了、再得个珍珠港和中途豆,大家都得利,唯一的冤大头就是美国,但美国都没了就不算冤大头了,这局全世界都得利,你好我好大家好,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 搞不定被制裁了快50年的伊朗,还在这边忽悠自己、自己给自己带高帽,没谁了, 趁目前美国军备拉垮、还没智能化的时候,目前是联合毛熊一起去瓜分北美大陆的最佳时机,欧盟肯定巴不得、他们又可以做老大了包括英国,日本也巴不得、自己脖子上的绳子没了、再得个珍珠港和中途豆,大家都得利,唯一的冤大头就是美国,但美国都没了就不算冤大头了,这局全世界都得利,你好我好大家好,$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/555514106795560","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3489487981979095","authorId":"3489487981979095","name":"大财主可爱又可乐","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9944c858a49c52b840b8869395a354d","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3489487981979095","idStr":"3489487981979095"},"content":"你这思路清奇 应该去大A啊 是不是来错地方了","text":"你这思路清奇 应该去大A啊 是不是来错地方了","html":"你这思路清奇 应该去大A啊 是不是来错地方了"},{"author":{"id":"4093596070918460","authorId":"4093596070918460","name":"闲人马斯克","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8de4bb6ae7ead34f761208585a438824","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4093596070918460","idStr":"4093596070918460"},"content":"是没有搞定,内一被送走了,内二也不敢露面了","text":"是没有搞定,内一被送走了,内二也不敢露面了","html":"是没有搞定,内一被送走了,内二也不敢露面了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554802437284168,"gmtCreate":1776484378919,"gmtModify":1776487521882,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对特朗普也是无语:一是喜欢甩锅、经济差都是拜登的事,好的都是我的功劳;二是喜欢吹牛,我一上任24小时内解决俄乌冲突;三是没魄力喜欢退缩,看去年今年;四是一点信誉都没有,问哈梅内伊最有发言权;五是:自己都做了、还不准媒体报道,上面五点,把地痞流氓无赖的特征展现的淋漓尽致,👍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对特朗普也是无语:一是喜欢甩锅、经济差都是拜登的事,好的都是我的功劳;二是喜欢吹牛,我一上任24小时内解决俄乌冲突;三是没魄力喜欢退缩,看去年今年;四是一点信誉都没有,问哈梅内伊最有发言权;五是:自己都做了、还不准媒体报道,上面五点,把地痞流氓无赖的特征展现的淋漓尽致,👍<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 对特朗普也是无语:一是喜欢甩锅、经济差都是拜登的事,好的都是我的功劳;二是喜欢吹牛,我一上任24小时内解决俄乌冲突;三是没魄力喜欢退缩,看去年今年;四是一点信誉都没有,问哈梅内伊最有发言权;五是:自己都做了、还不准媒体报道,上面五点,把地痞流氓无赖的特征展现的淋漓尽致,👍$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554802437284168","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1969,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440897161812160","authorId":"3440897161812160","name":"james duan","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a853dee41408bff6e6595b04b4887f94","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3440897161812160","idStr":"3440897161812160"},"content":"可能这就是老美的基因呢 以前资本家们并没有像他那么表现出来而已","text":"可能这就是老美的基因呢 以前资本家们并没有像他那么表现出来而已","html":"可能这就是老美的基因呢 以前资本家们并没有像他那么表现出来而已"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554505310409712,"gmtCreate":1776411912516,"gmtModify":1776414556565,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战路径,这意味着以这两人为主的供和挡势力不可能走越战路径;而珉主挡这边,像复制路径、可惜没有这样的人带头,加州州长pass、当时做中间人的污点就是尼可松2.0,哈哈姐已经失败一次、给机会不中用啊,一眼看去:没人;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战路径,这意味着以这两人为主的供和挡势力不可能走越战路径;而珉主挡这边,像复制路径、可惜没有这样的人带头,加州州长pass、当时做中间人的污点就是尼可松2.0,哈哈姐已经失败一次、给机会不中用啊,一眼看去:没人;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 万斯和其代表的铁锈区是越战路径里面的最大受害者、也是全球化1.0时代最大的失意群体,而老特这种没魄力的渣男特征决定了其不可能走越战路径,这意味着以这两人为主的供和挡势力不可能走越战路径;而珉主挡这边,像复制路径、可惜没有这样的人带头,加州州长pass、当时做中间人的污点就是尼可松2.0,哈哈姐已经失败一次、给机会不中用啊,一眼看去:没人;$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $标普500(.SPX)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $英特尔(INTC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554505310409712","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2438,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554502756800248,"gmtCreate":1776411286685,"gmtModify":1776411749097,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">$英特尔(INTC)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $英特尔(INTC)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554502756800248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554502588365080,"gmtCreate":1776411250747,"gmtModify":1776411473313,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 世界帝国的十字路口:何去何从: 可以排除像海湾战争那样快速搞定伊朗,那么就剩十字路口了,一条是像越南战争那样,以牺牲国内为主、一条是上面帖子里的发展为主,越南战争的路径,看当时的1965年-现在的2026年,这条路径对于美帝来说是非常成功的路径,经济、军事、全球老大、摆脱前面两大世界帝国被犹太民族通过黄金擒获的命运,这条路径美国简直赢嘛了;那么另一条从未有过的路径,发展为主,当年的西班牙帝国大英帝国也走过这条路径,成功了没有、看世界目前,西班牙现在都开始学印度做骑墙派了,欧盟开始抢毛熊的角色演双簧;这条发展路径里,黄金才是主角,其风头压过了大QE玩法、利率下行、美元贬值,就是四大货币乘数扩张工具大基建大房地产大科技大社保医保,在黄金面前都的靠边稍息,而随着黄金唱主角、犹太民族又可以通过黄金、第三次擒获世界帝国、跟当年擒获西班牙帝国大英帝国一模一样,发展这条想法很理想、但黄金现实很骨感,我们即使不联合毛熊趁次军备拉垮机会去瓜分北美大陆,犹太民族也会完成他们的第三次历史使命,就像我们上下五千年王朝更替、世家们也会完成自己的历史使命一样,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554502588365080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554495794124984,"gmtCreate":1776409589714,"gmtModify":1776409592828,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高、决定了标普、纳指在年底涨多高,以年内拉到8000刀算,标普在年底要拉到9000点左右、纳指在38000点左右,AI产业的半导体、AI软件、AI计算:英伟达拉到350,特斯拉拉到800左右,微软由于走势慢年底妥妥的与前高平齐,甲骨文650左右,英特尔年底就可以到200,要是年底黄金拉到10000刀,以上的年底价格全部上调25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高、决定了标普、纳指在年底涨多高,以年内拉到8000刀算,标普在年底要拉到9000点左右、纳指在38000点左右,AI产业的半导体、AI软件、AI计算:英伟达拉到350,特斯拉拉到800左右,微软由于走势慢年底妥妥的与前高平齐,甲骨文650左右,英特尔年底就可以到200,要是年底黄金拉到10000刀,以上的年底价格全部上调25%,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.SPX\">$标普500(.SPX)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">$纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 和平谈判、以美国国内发展为主题,这条路径目前概率最大、 那么路径内,看黄金拉多高(国债规模保持不变或增长缓慢的情况下),黄金拉多高、决定了标普、纳指在年底涨多高,以年内拉到8000刀算,标普在年底要拉到9000点左右、纳指在38000点左右,AI产业的半导体、AI软件、AI计算:英伟达拉到350,特斯拉拉到800左右,微软由于走势慢年底妥妥的与前高平齐,甲骨文650左右,英特尔年底就可以到200,要是年底黄金拉到10000刀,以上的年底价格全部上调25%,$标普500(.SPX)$ $纳斯达克(.IXIC)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ $苹果(AAPL)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554495794124984","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3580106986186914","authorId":"3580106986186914","name":"Enndm_","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2918527ef8b7e0bfccea56c4ae9f0d7f","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3580106986186914","idStr":"3580106986186914"},"content":"黄金要是10000刀 那世界大战3已经打到一半了估计","text":"黄金要是10000刀 那世界大战3已经打到一半了估计","html":"黄金要是10000刀 那世界大战3已经打到一半了估计"},{"author":{"id":"4199543189920392","authorId":"4199543189920392","name":"Sacred Rabbit","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11284644c21c4f05ac09d2b5c2b09e7d","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4199543189920392","idStr":"4199543189920392"},"content":"想法是好的[捂脸] 太敢想了","text":"想法是好的[捂脸] 太敢想了","html":"想法是好的[捂脸] 太敢想了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554491312306232,"gmtCreate":1776408494914,"gmtModify":1776409707741,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AAPL\">$苹果(AAPL)$ </a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> ","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,$苹果(AAPL)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554491312306232","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1116,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554491268510912,"gmtCreate":1776408415493,"gmtModify":1776409339914,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 对贝森特拉盘真的无语: 去年4月份关税日后,也是先拉三大盘的,然后是大科技股,去年是6月下旬拉到平齐高点,然后6-12月份的上涨是三大盘+大科技股作为火车头,罗素2000,防御、周期跟进,市场广度扩张,80%的都站上了50日线、20日线,这个广度扩张比耶伦时代要大,而美元贬值、财政发行短期国债、拉高黄金就是这波的动力,然后在12月份股市的估值太高了、拉不上去了,鲍威尔12月开始缩表并购买短期国债,后续是摩根大通的戴蒙都看不下去了,直接甩出私募信贷蟑螂打压估值、后面的AI冲击SaaS,然后的美伊战争,美伊战争在那个什么特朗普抹掉伊朗文明的那个礼拜一百天,亚洲股市先死为敬、下午欧洲股市跟上,美元涨到101以上,特朗普怂了,贝森特很好的理解了特朗普的怂样,先拉大盘,打压美元到99.1以下去, 美国很可能选择当年越南战争相反的道路,保国内、国内优先,不是越战和后面的以牺牲国内经济为代价,那么排除越战后70年代的路径,排除搞定伊朗路径,就剩发展这条路径了,意味着:AI产业和后续的马斯克太空探索公司产业,这两大产业会成为优先项,如果只发展AI产业,那么水源:美元贬值、赤字短债、拉黄金到8000、降点利率,水应该够了,要是两大产业都搞,那黄金得拉到1亿美元去、利率得降到1%下面去,国债规模保持目前39万亿不变;要是国债规模扩张、那黄金1亿美元/盏司得成倍的下拉,美元贬值参考黄金价格,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554491268510912","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":350,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554461419291080,"gmtCreate":1776401123808,"gmtModify":1776401126359,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"意思是:这波财报季,超预期的都参考高盛,先跌、然后低开高走;不及预期的参考富国银行,下跌,","listText":"意思是:这波财报季,超预期的都参考高盛,先跌、然后低开高走;不及预期的参考富国银行,下跌,","text":"意思是:这波财报季,超预期的都参考高盛,先跌、然后低开高走;不及预期的参考富国银行,下跌,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554461419291080","repostId":"2628857247","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2628857247","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1776382187,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2628857247?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-17 07:29","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"奈飞Q1业绩超预期增长但指引逊色,“灵魂人物”董事长将离任,股价盘后跌近9%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2628857247","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"Q1奈飞营收增长放缓至16%但强于预期;EPS同比增86%大超预期,源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元。奈飞预计Q2内容摊销同比增速全年最高;全年营业利润率指引维持不变未上调,略低于预期,今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元,全年自由现金流指引上调超10%至125亿美元。领导奈飞29年的联合创始人Hastings将6月任期届满后退出董事会。股价盘后一度跌10%。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>Q1奈飞营收增长放缓至16%但强于预期;EPS同比增86%大超预期,源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元。奈飞预计Q2内容摊销同比增速全年最高;全年营业利润率指引维持不变未上调,略低于预期,今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元,全年自由现金流指引上调超10%至125亿美元。领导奈飞29年的联合创始人Hastings将6月任期届满后退出董事会。股价盘后跌近9%。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">流媒体巨头奈飞(Netflix)公布喜忧参半的消息,引发市场剧烈反应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间16日周四,奈飞公布的今年第一季度营收和盈利增长比华尔街预期的强劲,但二季度的业绩指引逊于预期。奈飞同时宣布,公司联合创始人、董事长Reed Hastings将于6月退出董事会,带来管理层变动的不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上消息传出后,周四收盘微涨不足0.1%的奈飞股价盘后跳水,盘后跌近9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bf1e497c22bddcaa316a33d54c8a92\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"139\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为,奈飞股价大跌有三方面原因。一是在奈飞3月涨价后的增长动能疑虑,奈飞将标准无广告套餐上调2美元至20美元/月,提价短期利好收入,但在流媒体竞争加剧的背景下,此举可能抑制用户增长或增加流失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二是不同于一季度的盈利强于预期,本季的营收和每股收益(EPS)指引放缓程度超出共识预期,显示市场更看重未来而非过去。对于高估值成长股而言,估值锚更多取决于未来现金流。此外,全年的营业利润率指引维持不变,低于市场预期,在一季度已超指引的背景下未上修,容易被解读为管理层对后续成本与竞争环境更为谨慎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后一点,作为奈飞文化与战略的核心塑造者,Hastings的退出具有象征意义,投资者担忧公司长期战略连续性,尽管奈飞近年来已逐步完成“去创始人化”,市场仍对这一节点保持谨慎态度。</p><h2 id=\"id_281548840\">Q1营收增长放缓但高于华尔街预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示,奈飞一季度营收同比增长16%至122.5亿美元,高于分析师预计的121.7亿美元,虽然增速较上一季、即去年第四季度的17.6%略有放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞管理层将营收增长归功于“略高于计划的订阅收入”,同时也受到汇率与对冲因素的边际利好影响。驱动因素仍是三件套:会员增长、价格提升、广告收入增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利方面,一季度营业利润同比增长18%至39.6亿美元,高于预期的39.4亿美元,营业利润率32.3%,略低于分析师预期的32.4%,但较去年同期的31.7%小幅改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较于流媒体行业普遍面临的内容成本与竞争压力,奈飞在利润率上的韧性仍是财报的亮点之一。</p><h2 id=\"id_244017636\">Q1 EPS大增源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度奈飞的EPS同比增长86%至1.23美元,大超预期,较分析师预期的0.76美元高61.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞一季度净利润同比增长81.7%至52.8亿美元,远高于营业利润水平,主要来自“利息及其他收入”录得28.5亿美元,管理层明确指出,这其中包含与华纳兄弟交易相关的28亿美元终止费。换言之,这是奈飞在结束竞购华纳兄弟资产后收到的“意外之财”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为,这也是市场在解读奈飞财报时更为谨慎的原因之一:EPS确实大幅增长,但其中有较大的一次性项目贡献。若投资者更关注可持续经营性盈利,即以营业利润、营业利润率为主判断,一季度奈飞经营端的超预期幅度相对有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce045c7074d7d503e112e2790ee61160\" tg-width=\"1316\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><h2 id=\"57f0d8e5\">各地区表现:日本带动亚太与会员增长,欧洲市场增速更多受汇率“加成”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分区域看,一季度四大区域营收均实现两位数增长:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>UCAN(美国+加拿大):52.45亿美元,同比增长14%;</p></li><li><p>EMEA(欧洲等):39.98亿美元,同比增长17%,以固定汇率计算则增长12%,显示增速受汇率影响更大;</p></li><li><p>LATAM(拉美):14.97亿美元,同比增长19%,以固定汇率计算增长18%;</p></li><li><p>APAC(亚太):15.09亿美元,同比增长20%,以固定汇率计算增长19%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞在股东信中特别强调了日本市场的拉动效应:世界棒球经典赛(WBC)作为其首个区域性直播大事件在日本打破观看纪录,并带来该国“史上最大单日注册”,使日本成为一季度会员增长的最大贡献来源。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f395f5e1c11f53c269a8923c24b4f054\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"eps\">全年营业利润率指引未上调 Q2内容摊销增速全年最高</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩指引方面,奈飞预计,二季度营收125.7亿美元,相当于同比增长13.5%,而分析师预期为126.4亿美元,二季度EPS为0.78美元,较分析师预期的0.84美元低逾7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利能力上,奈飞提供的二季度营业利润率指引为32.6%,低于去年同期的34.1%。奈飞的今年全年营业利润率指引维持在31.5%不变,并未上调,略低于分析师预期的32%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞管理层对二季度盈利压力给出的解释是:今年内容摊销增长将“前高后低”,二季度将出现全年最高的同比摊销增速,随后在下半年回落至中高个位数增速;因此利润率在三、四季度同比有望回升,从而实现全年31.5%的利润率目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_3914419693\">今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元 全年自由现金流指引上调超10%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在商业化方面,奈飞继续把广告视作“第二增长曲线”。公司称,广告套餐在开通广告服务国家的一季度新增注册中占比超过60%,广告客户数量超过4000家,同比增70%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">管理层维持2026年、即今年的广告收入约30亿美元的目标,较2025年翻倍,并表示,今年将推出更多衡量与归因工具,以第一方数据帮助广告主评估“增量效果”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现金流是本次财报的一大亮点,一季度奈飞的经营现金流52.9亿美元,自由现金流(FCF)50.9亿美元,较去年同期大幅提升。公司指出,其中一部分来自华纳兄弟相关终止费的现金入账。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此基础上,奈飞将今年全年的FCF指引从约110亿美元上调至约125亿美元,升幅13.6%。资本回报方面,公司在交易期暂停回购后已恢复,一季度回购1350万股、耗资13亿美元,现有回购授权剩余约68亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产负债表方面,公司期末现金及现金等价物约123亿美元,总债务约144亿美元,净负债约21亿美元,整体杠杆水平仍相对可控。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c2c811225c16b77178b11a63e40e71\" tg-width=\"1299\" tg-height=\"694\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_386739169\">领导奈飞29年的“灵魂人物”6月离任</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞周四公布的致股东信披露,在今年6月任期届满时,公司联合创始人、董事长Hastings将不会参加当月年度股东大会上举行的董事连任竞选,不再寻求连任董事职务,计划将精力投入到慈善事业及其他个人追求之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之,在6月任期到期后,Hastings就将正式退出董事会,结束他在奈飞长达29年的管理与治理角色,把个人精力投入到慈善与其他个人事务中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,Hastings被公认为推动了电影和电视节目家庭观看模式的革命性变革,并彻底颠覆了好莱坞传统的商业模式。他的离任标志着,奈飞的一个时代正式落幕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">评论认为,对市场而言,这一变化更多属于治理结构与象征意义层面的事件,但在公司正推进广告、直播与更多内容形态扩张的节点上,也可能放大部分投资者对“长期战略一致性”的敏感度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">eMarketer 高级分析师Ross Benes评论称:“随着公司步入一个没有Reed Hastings的新纪元,广告将发挥更为重要的作用。鉴于‘预售季’(Upfronts)在即,眼下正是壮大广告业务的最佳时机。”</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>奈飞Q1业绩超预期增长但指引逊色,“灵魂人物”董事长将离任,股价盘后跌近9%</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n奈飞Q1业绩超预期增长但指引逊色,“灵魂人物”董事长将离任,股价盘后跌近9%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2026-04-17 07:29</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p><strong>Q1奈飞营收增长放缓至16%但强于预期;EPS同比增86%大超预期,源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元。奈飞预计Q2内容摊销同比增速全年最高;全年营业利润率指引维持不变未上调,略低于预期,今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元,全年自由现金流指引上调超10%至125亿美元。领导奈飞29年的联合创始人Hastings将6月任期届满后退出董事会。股价盘后跌近9%。</strong></p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">流媒体巨头奈飞(Netflix)公布喜忧参半的消息,引发市场剧烈反应。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美东时间16日周四,奈飞公布的今年第一季度营收和盈利增长比华尔街预期的强劲,但二季度的业绩指引逊于预期。奈飞同时宣布,公司联合创始人、董事长Reed Hastings将于6月退出董事会,带来管理层变动的不确定性。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">以上消息传出后,周四收盘微涨不足0.1%的奈飞股价盘后跳水,盘后跌近9%。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/63bf1e497c22bddcaa316a33d54c8a92\" tg-width=\"466\" tg-height=\"139\"/></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为,奈飞股价大跌有三方面原因。一是在奈飞3月涨价后的增长动能疑虑,奈飞将标准无广告套餐上调2美元至20美元/月,提价短期利好收入,但在流媒体竞争加剧的背景下,此举可能抑制用户增长或增加流失。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">二是不同于一季度的盈利强于预期,本季的营收和每股收益(EPS)指引放缓程度超出共识预期,显示市场更看重未来而非过去。对于高估值成长股而言,估值锚更多取决于未来现金流。此外,全年的营业利润率指引维持不变,低于市场预期,在一季度已超指引的背景下未上修,容易被解读为管理层对后续成本与竞争环境更为谨慎。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">最后一点,作为奈飞文化与战略的核心塑造者,Hastings的退出具有象征意义,投资者担忧公司长期战略连续性,尽管奈飞近年来已逐步完成“去创始人化”,市场仍对这一节点保持谨慎态度。</p><h2 id=\"id_281548840\">Q1营收增长放缓但高于华尔街预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">财报显示,奈飞一季度营收同比增长16%至122.5亿美元,高于分析师预计的121.7亿美元,虽然增速较上一季、即去年第四季度的17.6%略有放缓。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞管理层将营收增长归功于“略高于计划的订阅收入”,同时也受到汇率与对冲因素的边际利好影响。驱动因素仍是三件套:会员增长、价格提升、广告收入增加。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利方面,一季度营业利润同比增长18%至39.6亿美元,高于预期的39.4亿美元,营业利润率32.3%,略低于分析师预期的32.4%,但较去年同期的31.7%小幅改善。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">相较于流媒体行业普遍面临的内容成本与竞争压力,奈飞在利润率上的韧性仍是财报的亮点之一。</p><h2 id=\"id_244017636\">Q1 EPS大增源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">一季度奈飞的EPS同比增长86%至1.23美元,大超预期,较分析师预期的0.76美元高61.8%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞一季度净利润同比增长81.7%至52.8亿美元,远高于营业利润水平,主要来自“利息及其他收入”录得28.5亿美元,管理层明确指出,这其中包含与华纳兄弟交易相关的28亿美元终止费。换言之,这是奈飞在结束竞购华纳兄弟资产后收到的“意外之财”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分析认为,这也是市场在解读奈飞财报时更为谨慎的原因之一:EPS确实大幅增长,但其中有较大的一次性项目贡献。若投资者更关注可持续经营性盈利,即以营业利润、营业利润率为主判断,一季度奈飞经营端的超预期幅度相对有限。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce045c7074d7d503e112e2790ee61160\" tg-width=\"1316\" tg-height=\"664\"/></p><h2 id=\"57f0d8e5\">各地区表现:日本带动亚太与会员增长,欧洲市场增速更多受汇率“加成”</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">分区域看,一季度四大区域营收均实现两位数增长:</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>UCAN(美国+加拿大):52.45亿美元,同比增长14%;</p></li><li><p>EMEA(欧洲等):39.98亿美元,同比增长17%,以固定汇率计算则增长12%,显示增速受汇率影响更大;</p></li><li><p>LATAM(拉美):14.97亿美元,同比增长19%,以固定汇率计算增长18%;</p></li><li><p>APAC(亚太):15.09亿美元,同比增长20%,以固定汇率计算增长19%。</p></li></ul><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞在股东信中特别强调了日本市场的拉动效应:世界棒球经典赛(WBC)作为其首个区域性直播大事件在日本打破观看纪录,并带来该国“史上最大单日注册”,使日本成为一季度会员增长的最大贡献来源。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f395f5e1c11f53c269a8923c24b4f054\" tg-width=\"2560\" tg-height=\"1436\"/></p><h2 id=\"eps\">全年营业利润率指引未上调 Q2内容摊销增速全年最高</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">业绩指引方面,奈飞预计,二季度营收125.7亿美元,相当于同比增长13.5%,而分析师预期为126.4亿美元,二季度EPS为0.78美元,较分析师预期的0.84美元低逾7%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">盈利能力上,奈飞提供的二季度营业利润率指引为32.6%,低于去年同期的34.1%。奈飞的今年全年营业利润率指引维持在31.5%不变,并未上调,略低于分析师预期的32%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞管理层对二季度盈利压力给出的解释是:今年内容摊销增长将“前高后低”,二季度将出现全年最高的同比摊销增速,随后在下半年回落至中高个位数增速;因此利润率在三、四季度同比有望回升,从而实现全年31.5%的利润率目标。</p><h2 id=\"id_3914419693\">今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元 全年自由现金流指引上调超10%</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在商业化方面,奈飞继续把广告视作“第二增长曲线”。公司称,广告套餐在开通广告服务国家的一季度新增注册中占比超过60%,广告客户数量超过4000家,同比增70%。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">管理层维持2026年、即今年的广告收入约30亿美元的目标,较2025年翻倍,并表示,今年将推出更多衡量与归因工具,以第一方数据帮助广告主评估“增量效果”。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">现金流是本次财报的一大亮点,一季度奈飞的经营现金流52.9亿美元,自由现金流(FCF)50.9亿美元,较去年同期大幅提升。公司指出,其中一部分来自华纳兄弟相关终止费的现金入账。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">在此基础上,奈飞将今年全年的FCF指引从约110亿美元上调至约125亿美元,升幅13.6%。资本回报方面,公司在交易期暂停回购后已恢复,一季度回购1350万股、耗资13亿美元,现有回购授权剩余约68亿美元。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">资产负债表方面,公司期末现金及现金等价物约123亿美元,总债务约144亿美元,净负债约21亿美元,整体杠杆水平仍相对可控。</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57c2c811225c16b77178b11a63e40e71\" tg-width=\"1299\" tg-height=\"694\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_386739169\">领导奈飞29年的“灵魂人物”6月离任</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">奈飞周四公布的致股东信披露,在今年6月任期届满时,公司联合创始人、董事长Hastings将不会参加当月年度股东大会上举行的董事连任竞选,不再寻求连任董事职务,计划将精力投入到慈善事业及其他个人追求之中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">换言之,在6月任期到期后,Hastings就将正式退出董事会,结束他在奈飞长达29年的管理与治理角色,把个人精力投入到慈善与其他个人事务中。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">媒体称,Hastings被公认为推动了电影和电视节目家庭观看模式的革命性变革,并彻底颠覆了好莱坞传统的商业模式。他的离任标志着,奈飞的一个时代正式落幕。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">评论认为,对市场而言,这一变化更多属于治理结构与象征意义层面的事件,但在公司正推进广告、直播与更多内容形态扩张的节点上,也可能放大部分投资者对“长期战略一致性”的敏感度。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">eMarketer 高级分析师Ross Benes评论称:“随着公司步入一个没有Reed Hastings的新纪元,广告将发挥更为重要的作用。鉴于‘预售季’(Upfronts)在即,眼下正是壮大广告业务的最佳时机。”</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bacf45b377460779a7d562ed00e9f398","relate_stocks":{"LU0079474960.USD":"联博美国增长基金A","LU1127390331.HKD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"A\" (HKD) ACC","LU2361044949.HKD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4581":"高盛持仓","LU0882574139.USD":"富达环球消费行业基金A ACC","IE00BQXX3D17.EUR":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (EUR) ACC","LU2361044865.SGD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","IE00BQXX3C00.GBP":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (GBP) ACC","LU2361045086.USD":"WELLINGTON US QUALITY GROWTH \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0868494617.USD":"UBS (LUX) EQUITY SICAV - US TOTAL YIELD SUSTAINABLE \"P\" (USD) ACC","LU1046421795.USD":"富达环球科技A-ACC","NFLX":"奈飞","IE00BQXX3F31.USD":"GUINNESS GLOBAL INNOVATORS \"C\" (USD) ACC","LU0077335932.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICAN GROWTH \"A\" INC","LU2108987350.USD":"UBS (LUX) 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ACC","LU0082616367.USD":"摩根大通美国科技A(dist)","LU0353189680.USD":"富国美国全盘成长基金Cl A Acc","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","LU0203201768.USD":"AB SICAV I - ALL MARKET INCOME PORTFOLIO \"AX\" (USD) INC","LU1720051017.SGD":"Allianz Global Artificial Intelligence AT Acc H2-SGD","LU2362540622.SGD":"WELLINGTON NEXT GENERATION GLOBAL EQUITY \"A\" (SGDHDG) ACC","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","LU0417517546.SGD":"Allianz US Equity Cl AT Acc SGD"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770192","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2628857247","content_text":"Q1奈飞营收增长放缓至16%但强于预期;EPS同比增86%大超预期,源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元。奈飞预计Q2内容摊销同比增速全年最高;全年营业利润率指引维持不变未上调,略低于预期,今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元,全年自由现金流指引上调超10%至125亿美元。领导奈飞29年的联合创始人Hastings将6月任期届满后退出董事会。股价盘后跌近9%。流媒体巨头奈飞(Netflix)公布喜忧参半的消息,引发市场剧烈反应。美东时间16日周四,奈飞公布的今年第一季度营收和盈利增长比华尔街预期的强劲,但二季度的业绩指引逊于预期。奈飞同时宣布,公司联合创始人、董事长Reed Hastings将于6月退出董事会,带来管理层变动的不确定性。以上消息传出后,周四收盘微涨不足0.1%的奈飞股价盘后跳水,盘后跌近9%。分析认为,奈飞股价大跌有三方面原因。一是在奈飞3月涨价后的增长动能疑虑,奈飞将标准无广告套餐上调2美元至20美元/月,提价短期利好收入,但在流媒体竞争加剧的背景下,此举可能抑制用户增长或增加流失。二是不同于一季度的盈利强于预期,本季的营收和每股收益(EPS)指引放缓程度超出共识预期,显示市场更看重未来而非过去。对于高估值成长股而言,估值锚更多取决于未来现金流。此外,全年的营业利润率指引维持不变,低于市场预期,在一季度已超指引的背景下未上修,容易被解读为管理层对后续成本与竞争环境更为谨慎。最后一点,作为奈飞文化与战略的核心塑造者,Hastings的退出具有象征意义,投资者担忧公司长期战略连续性,尽管奈飞近年来已逐步完成“去创始人化”,市场仍对这一节点保持谨慎态度。Q1营收增长放缓但高于华尔街预期财报显示,奈飞一季度营收同比增长16%至122.5亿美元,高于分析师预计的121.7亿美元,虽然增速较上一季、即去年第四季度的17.6%略有放缓。奈飞管理层将营收增长归功于“略高于计划的订阅收入”,同时也受到汇率与对冲因素的边际利好影响。驱动因素仍是三件套:会员增长、价格提升、广告收入增加。盈利方面,一季度营业利润同比增长18%至39.6亿美元,高于预期的39.4亿美元,营业利润率32.3%,略低于分析师预期的32.4%,但较去年同期的31.7%小幅改善。相较于流媒体行业普遍面临的内容成本与竞争压力,奈飞在利润率上的韧性仍是财报的亮点之一。Q1 EPS大增源于结束竞购华纳的一次性收入28.5亿美元一季度奈飞的EPS同比增长86%至1.23美元,大超预期,较分析师预期的0.76美元高61.8%。奈飞一季度净利润同比增长81.7%至52.8亿美元,远高于营业利润水平,主要来自“利息及其他收入”录得28.5亿美元,管理层明确指出,这其中包含与华纳兄弟交易相关的28亿美元终止费。换言之,这是奈飞在结束竞购华纳兄弟资产后收到的“意外之财”。分析认为,这也是市场在解读奈飞财报时更为谨慎的原因之一:EPS确实大幅增长,但其中有较大的一次性项目贡献。若投资者更关注可持续经营性盈利,即以营业利润、营业利润率为主判断,一季度奈飞经营端的超预期幅度相对有限。各地区表现:日本带动亚太与会员增长,欧洲市场增速更多受汇率“加成”分区域看,一季度四大区域营收均实现两位数增长:UCAN(美国+加拿大):52.45亿美元,同比增长14%;EMEA(欧洲等):39.98亿美元,同比增长17%,以固定汇率计算则增长12%,显示增速受汇率影响更大;LATAM(拉美):14.97亿美元,同比增长19%,以固定汇率计算增长18%;APAC(亚太):15.09亿美元,同比增长20%,以固定汇率计算增长19%。奈飞在股东信中特别强调了日本市场的拉动效应:世界棒球经典赛(WBC)作为其首个区域性直播大事件在日本打破观看纪录,并带来该国“史上最大单日注册”,使日本成为一季度会员增长的最大贡献来源。全年营业利润率指引未上调 Q2内容摊销增速全年最高业绩指引方面,奈飞预计,二季度营收125.7亿美元,相当于同比增长13.5%,而分析师预期为126.4亿美元,二季度EPS为0.78美元,较分析师预期的0.84美元低逾7%。盈利能力上,奈飞提供的二季度营业利润率指引为32.6%,低于去年同期的34.1%。奈飞的今年全年营业利润率指引维持在31.5%不变,并未上调,略低于分析师预期的32%。奈飞管理层对二季度盈利压力给出的解释是:今年内容摊销增长将“前高后低”,二季度将出现全年最高的同比摊销增速,随后在下半年回落至中高个位数增速;因此利润率在三、四季度同比有望回升,从而实现全年31.5%的利润率目标。今年广告收入目标维持在30亿美元 全年自由现金流指引上调超10%在商业化方面,奈飞继续把广告视作“第二增长曲线”。公司称,广告套餐在开通广告服务国家的一季度新增注册中占比超过60%,广告客户数量超过4000家,同比增70%。管理层维持2026年、即今年的广告收入约30亿美元的目标,较2025年翻倍,并表示,今年将推出更多衡量与归因工具,以第一方数据帮助广告主评估“增量效果”。现金流是本次财报的一大亮点,一季度奈飞的经营现金流52.9亿美元,自由现金流(FCF)50.9亿美元,较去年同期大幅提升。公司指出,其中一部分来自华纳兄弟相关终止费的现金入账。在此基础上,奈飞将今年全年的FCF指引从约110亿美元上调至约125亿美元,升幅13.6%。资本回报方面,公司在交易期暂停回购后已恢复,一季度回购1350万股、耗资13亿美元,现有回购授权剩余约68亿美元。资产负债表方面,公司期末现金及现金等价物约123亿美元,总债务约144亿美元,净负债约21亿美元,整体杠杆水平仍相对可控。领导奈飞29年的“灵魂人物”6月离任奈飞周四公布的致股东信披露,在今年6月任期届满时,公司联合创始人、董事长Hastings将不会参加当月年度股东大会上举行的董事连任竞选,不再寻求连任董事职务,计划将精力投入到慈善事业及其他个人追求之中。换言之,在6月任期到期后,Hastings就将正式退出董事会,结束他在奈飞长达29年的管理与治理角色,把个人精力投入到慈善与其他个人事务中。媒体称,Hastings被公认为推动了电影和电视节目家庭观看模式的革命性变革,并彻底颠覆了好莱坞传统的商业模式。他的离任标志着,奈飞的一个时代正式落幕。评论认为,对市场而言,这一变化更多属于治理结构与象征意义层面的事件,但在公司正推进广告、直播与更多内容形态扩张的节点上,也可能放大部分投资者对“长期战略一致性”的敏感度。eMarketer 高级分析师Ross Benes评论称:“随着公司步入一个没有Reed Hastings的新纪元,广告将发挥更为重要的作用。鉴于‘预售季’(Upfronts)在即,眼下正是壮大广告业务的最佳时机。”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NFLX":2}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":583,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554460469715168,"gmtCreate":1776400888654,"gmtModify":1776400891355,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"一是:跟爱泼斯坦案的关系都没撇清楚,二是:其代表的以雅思兰黛为资本利益的标签,三是:过往任职美联储的糟糕表现,四是亿万富翁的标签相对于上面三点已经不重要了,","listText":"一是:跟爱泼斯坦案的关系都没撇清楚,二是:其代表的以雅思兰黛为资本利益的标签,三是:过往任职美联储的糟糕表现,四是亿万富翁的标签相对于上面三点已经不重要了,","text":"一是:跟爱泼斯坦案的关系都没撇清楚,二是:其代表的以雅思兰黛为资本利益的标签,三是:过往任职美联储的糟糕表现,四是亿万富翁的标签相对于上面三点已经不重要了,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554460469715168","repostId":"1105627837","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105627837","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1776387927,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1105627837?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2026-04-17 09:05","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"为下周听证会“预热”,美国民主党议员猛批沃什:上亿资产“不披露”,甘为特朗普“傀儡”","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105627837","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"美联储权力交接风波骤起:特朗普提名的主席候选人沃什因逾1亿美元资产拒绝披露,遭参议院民主党人集体狙击,共和党内部亦现倒戈。同日,该委员会全体11名民主党议员联名发起施压,要求全面推迟对沃什的确认听证程序。然而,沃什以保密协议为由,拒绝披露其中一只名为Juggernaut基金的底层资产。目前,特朗普政府正通过两起法律纠纷向美联储施压。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>美联储权力交接风波骤起:特朗普提名的主席候选人沃什因逾1亿美元资产拒绝披露,遭参议院民主党人集体狙击,共和党内部亦现倒戈。叠加司法部对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查及白宫持续施压,5月15日权力交接能否平稳落地已成未知数,美联储独立性危机正倒逼市场重新定价利率前景。</p></blockquote><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人沃什正面临参议院民主党人的强烈抵制,其超过1亿美元的“未披露”资产引发道德合规争议,这一僵局加剧了市场对全球最重要央行领导层能否平稳交接的担忧。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据英国《金融时报》报道,参议院银行委员会最高民主党人Elizabeth Warren周四猛烈抨击沃什,<strong>指责其隐瞒核心金融资产,并直言若其获得确认,将沦为特朗普的“傀儡”。同日,该委员会全体11名民主党议员联名发起施压,要求全面推迟对沃什的确认听证程序。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">此次人事争议叠加美国政府针对现任美联储官员的法律行动,令沃什在现任主席鲍威尔于5月15日任期届满前获批的可能性大幅下降。投资者正密切关注这一政治博弈对美联储独立性的直接冲击,任何领导层的权力真空或政治化倾向都可能重塑市场对美国未来利率路径的定价。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">随着两党议员的反对声浪日益高涨,<strong>原定于下周(4月21日)举行的参议院听证会注定将是一场充满火药味的交锋,美联储的权力过渡正面临前所未有的不确定性。</strong></p><h2 id=\"id_2062274997\">资产披露引发合规争议</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">引发此次风波的核心在于沃什庞大且不透明的财务状况。据美国政府道德办公室(OGE)公布的长达69页的披露文件显示,沃什近期申报了价值超过1.3亿美元的资产。其中,超过1亿美元投资于Stanley Druckenmiller家族办公室Duquesne运营的多个基金。然而,沃什以保密协议为由,拒绝披露其中一只名为Juggernaut基金的底层资产。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">Elizabeth Warren对此表达了“深切担忧”。<strong>她指出,超过1亿美元的资产流向完全未知的实体,这不仅是一个危险信号,更是“伴随着烟花和火花的危险信号”。</strong>Warren强调,尽管沃什承诺将剥离这些资产,但这并不能解决问题,因为缺乏初始披露意味着外界无法核实这些财务纠葛是否在接任美联储主席前被彻底解除。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管OGE表示沃什的披露报告符合联邦道德规范,且剥离部分资产后即可合规,但民主党人坚持认为,在特朗普政府中,没有任何人能在未完全披露财务持仓及利益纠葛的情况下顺利推进提名。</p><h2 id=\"id_2574294215\">两党夹击,听证会面临推迟风险</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\"><strong>除了资产透明度问题,沃什的提名程序正成为两党围绕美联储独立性展开博弈的筹码。</strong>参议院银行委员会的11位民主党成员已致函该委员会共和党主席Tim Scott,明确要求在针对现任美联储主席Jay 鲍威尔和美联储理事Lisa Cook的调查结束之前,不得推进沃什的提名程序。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">沃什不仅面临民主党人的集体狙击,还遭到了共和党内部的阻击。参议院银行委员会共和党成员Thom Tillis此前誓言,在司法部放弃对鲍威尔的调查之前,他将阻止沃什的提名在委员会通过。目前共和党在该委员会仅拥有13对11的微弱多数优势,这意味着Tillis一人的反对票就足以将沃什挡在全院投票的门外。</p><h2 id=\"id_2326015697\">白宫施压与美联储独立性隐忧</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">当前围绕提名的僵局,根源在于特朗普政府与美联储之间不断升级的矛盾。特朗普多次公开抨击鲍威尔降息不够迅速,甚至称其为“白痴”,并向媒体表示,等到“沃什上任时”,利率将会降低。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">目前,特朗普政府正通过两起法律纠纷向美联储施压。其一是去年宣布解雇任期本应至2038年的理事Lisa Cook,理由是未经证实的按揭欺诈指控,该案目前已被最高法院受理。其二是美国司法部针对鲍威尔处理美联储总部25亿美元翻修工程超支问题展开的刑事调查。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管联邦法官近期撤销了针对该翻修项目的传票,但特朗普的长期盟友、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Pirro表示将提起上诉,其团队本周二甚至未经通知突访了美联储工地。白宫首席经济顾问Kevin Hassett本周透露,司法部介入是因为总统希望对超支问题展开调查。特朗普已公开为该调查背书,并威胁称如果鲍威尔在任期结束后不主动离职,将直接将其解雇。</p><h2 id=\"id_1963775693\">权力交接充满变数</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">司法调查与国会阻击的双重压力,正严重阻碍美联储权力的顺利交接。<strong>如果沃什未能及时在5月15日前获得参议院确认,美国货币政策的掌舵权将面临法律层面的未知数。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">鲍威尔此前已明确表示,若继任者未获确认,他将以临时主席身份留任,并强调此举在法律和先例上均有充分依据。法律专家普遍支持鲍威尔的立场,指出美联储董事会有权在主席空缺时委托成员临时履职,且去年的多起独立判例已确认,对于需要参议院确认的职位,总统无权在未获参议院支持的情况下自行任命代理人选。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">然而,外界日益担忧特朗普政府将挑战这一法律框架,试图强行安排其他董事会成员接替。这一潜在的法律冲突可能进一步动摇市场对美联储决策独立性的信心,迫使投资者在充满迷雾的政策环境中重新评估风险。</p></body></html>","source":"lsy1762389672944","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>为下周听证会“预热”,美国民主党议员猛批沃什:上亿资产“不披露”,甘为特朗普“傀儡”</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n为下周听证会“预热”,美国民主党议员猛批沃什:上亿资产“不披露”,甘为特朗普“傀儡”\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2026-04-17 09:05 北京时间 <a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770189><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美联储权力交接风波骤起:特朗普提名的主席候选人沃什因逾1亿美元资产拒绝披露,遭参议院民主党人集体狙击,共和党内部亦现倒戈。叠加司法部对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查及白宫持续施压,5月15日权力交接能否平稳落地已成未知数,美联储独立性危机正倒逼市场重新定价利率前景。美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人沃什正面临参议院民主党人的强烈抵制,其超过1亿美元的“未披露”资产引发道德合规争议,这一僵局加剧了市场对...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770189\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/dad334200ed8073076115663398d5349","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3770189","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105627837","content_text":"美联储权力交接风波骤起:特朗普提名的主席候选人沃什因逾1亿美元资产拒绝披露,遭参议院民主党人集体狙击,共和党内部亦现倒戈。叠加司法部对现任主席鲍威尔的刑事调查及白宫持续施压,5月15日权力交接能否平稳落地已成未知数,美联储独立性危机正倒逼市场重新定价利率前景。美国总统特朗普提名的美联储主席候选人沃什正面临参议院民主党人的强烈抵制,其超过1亿美元的“未披露”资产引发道德合规争议,这一僵局加剧了市场对全球最重要央行领导层能否平稳交接的担忧。据英国《金融时报》报道,参议院银行委员会最高民主党人Elizabeth Warren周四猛烈抨击沃什,指责其隐瞒核心金融资产,并直言若其获得确认,将沦为特朗普的“傀儡”。同日,该委员会全体11名民主党议员联名发起施压,要求全面推迟对沃什的确认听证程序。此次人事争议叠加美国政府针对现任美联储官员的法律行动,令沃什在现任主席鲍威尔于5月15日任期届满前获批的可能性大幅下降。投资者正密切关注这一政治博弈对美联储独立性的直接冲击,任何领导层的权力真空或政治化倾向都可能重塑市场对美国未来利率路径的定价。随着两党议员的反对声浪日益高涨,原定于下周(4月21日)举行的参议院听证会注定将是一场充满火药味的交锋,美联储的权力过渡正面临前所未有的不确定性。资产披露引发合规争议引发此次风波的核心在于沃什庞大且不透明的财务状况。据美国政府道德办公室(OGE)公布的长达69页的披露文件显示,沃什近期申报了价值超过1.3亿美元的资产。其中,超过1亿美元投资于Stanley Druckenmiller家族办公室Duquesne运营的多个基金。然而,沃什以保密协议为由,拒绝披露其中一只名为Juggernaut基金的底层资产。Elizabeth Warren对此表达了“深切担忧”。她指出,超过1亿美元的资产流向完全未知的实体,这不仅是一个危险信号,更是“伴随着烟花和火花的危险信号”。Warren强调,尽管沃什承诺将剥离这些资产,但这并不能解决问题,因为缺乏初始披露意味着外界无法核实这些财务纠葛是否在接任美联储主席前被彻底解除。尽管OGE表示沃什的披露报告符合联邦道德规范,且剥离部分资产后即可合规,但民主党人坚持认为,在特朗普政府中,没有任何人能在未完全披露财务持仓及利益纠葛的情况下顺利推进提名。两党夹击,听证会面临推迟风险除了资产透明度问题,沃什的提名程序正成为两党围绕美联储独立性展开博弈的筹码。参议院银行委员会的11位民主党成员已致函该委员会共和党主席Tim Scott,明确要求在针对现任美联储主席Jay 鲍威尔和美联储理事Lisa Cook的调查结束之前,不得推进沃什的提名程序。沃什不仅面临民主党人的集体狙击,还遭到了共和党内部的阻击。参议院银行委员会共和党成员Thom Tillis此前誓言,在司法部放弃对鲍威尔的调查之前,他将阻止沃什的提名在委员会通过。目前共和党在该委员会仅拥有13对11的微弱多数优势,这意味着Tillis一人的反对票就足以将沃什挡在全院投票的门外。白宫施压与美联储独立性隐忧当前围绕提名的僵局,根源在于特朗普政府与美联储之间不断升级的矛盾。特朗普多次公开抨击鲍威尔降息不够迅速,甚至称其为“白痴”,并向媒体表示,等到“沃什上任时”,利率将会降低。目前,特朗普政府正通过两起法律纠纷向美联储施压。其一是去年宣布解雇任期本应至2038年的理事Lisa Cook,理由是未经证实的按揭欺诈指控,该案目前已被最高法院受理。其二是美国司法部针对鲍威尔处理美联储总部25亿美元翻修工程超支问题展开的刑事调查。尽管联邦法官近期撤销了针对该翻修项目的传票,但特朗普的长期盟友、哥伦比亚特区联邦检察官Pirro表示将提起上诉,其团队本周二甚至未经通知突访了美联储工地。白宫首席经济顾问Kevin Hassett本周透露,司法部介入是因为总统希望对超支问题展开调查。特朗普已公开为该调查背书,并威胁称如果鲍威尔在任期结束后不主动离职,将直接将其解雇。权力交接充满变数司法调查与国会阻击的双重压力,正严重阻碍美联储权力的顺利交接。如果沃什未能及时在5月15日前获得参议院确认,美国货币政策的掌舵权将面临法律层面的未知数。鲍威尔此前已明确表示,若继任者未获确认,他将以临时主席身份留任,并强调此举在法律和先例上均有充分依据。法律专家普遍支持鲍威尔的立场,指出美联储董事会有权在主席空缺时委托成员临时履职,且去年的多起独立判例已确认,对于需要参议院确认的职位,总统无权在未获参议院支持的情况下自行任命代理人选。然而,外界日益担忧特朗普政府将挑战这一法律框架,试图强行安排其他董事会成员接替。这一潜在的法律冲突可能进一步动摇市场对美联储决策独立性的信心,迫使投资者在充满迷雾的政策环境中重新评估风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":388,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":554179906590768,"gmtCreate":1776332468019,"gmtModify":1776332742679,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 越南战争PK现在的美伊战争:世界帝国的十字路口: 越战:二战红利的家底快吃完了,刚好亚洲利益上来了;打,优点:虽然军备拉垮,但通过三年战争也知道了自己军备拉垮并发展升级的方向,升级,虽然苦了国内、物价高涨、发展机会停下来,布雷森还是玩的罗斯福那一套,其他国家看美帝搞不定越南,那不好意思,我们也要搞大动作,但当时的核心美帝还是抓住了:军备升级,这才是世界帝国的基础,其他的什么滞涨、高利率、别国搞东搞西的、别来防癌喔发展武备;事后也验证了发展武备的正确性,看信息化战争的海海湾战争; 现在的美伊战争:军备拉垮,跟当时越战一样的拉垮,现在和谈并结束战争的话,那么将会是一种新的情景,世界帝国衰落的开始这种概率最大,如果再打、跟越战一样陷入泥潭,那重走一篇当年的路就可以;要是再打并搞定了伊朗和霍什么海峡、这种概率太低了直接pass,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a> 越南战争PK现在的美伊战争:世界帝国的十字路口: 越战:二战红利的家底快吃完了,刚好亚洲利益上来了;打,优点:虽然军备拉垮,但通过三年战争也知道了自己军备拉垮并发展升级的方向,升级,虽然苦了国内、物价高涨、发展机会停下来,布雷森还是玩的罗斯福那一套,其他国家看美帝搞不定越南,那不好意思,我们也要搞大动作,但当时的核心美帝还是抓住了:军备升级,这才是世界帝国的基础,其他的什么滞涨、高利率、别国搞东搞西的、别来防癌喔发展武备;事后也验证了发展武备的正确性,看信息化战争的海海湾战争; 现在的美伊战争:军备拉垮,跟当时越战一样的拉垮,现在和谈并结束战争的话,那么将会是一种新的情景,世界帝国衰落的开始这种概率最大,如果再打、跟越战一样陷入泥潭,那重走一篇当年的路就可以;要是再打并搞定了伊朗和霍什么海峡、这种概率太低了直接pass,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 越南战争PK现在的美伊战争:世界帝国的十字路口: 越战:二战红利的家底快吃完了,刚好亚洲利益上来了;打,优点:虽然军备拉垮,但通过三年战争也知道了自己军备拉垮并发展升级的方向,升级,虽然苦了国内、物价高涨、发展机会停下来,布雷森还是玩的罗斯福那一套,其他国家看美帝搞不定越南,那不好意思,我们也要搞大动作,但当时的核心美帝还是抓住了:军备升级,这才是世界帝国的基础,其他的什么滞涨、高利率、别国搞东搞西的、别来防癌喔发展武备;事后也验证了发展武备的正确性,看信息化战争的海海湾战争; 现在的美伊战争:军备拉垮,跟当时越战一样的拉垮,现在和谈并结束战争的话,那么将会是一种新的情景,世界帝国衰落的开始这种概率最大,如果再打、跟越战一样陷入泥潭,那重走一篇当年的路就可以;要是再打并搞定了伊朗和霍什么海峡、这种概率太低了直接pass,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/554179906590768","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":227021600936000,"gmtCreate":1696433264212,"gmtModify":1696433907902,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$ </a>不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ 不知道这波是否对美联储的意识判断失误,在水位处于供需平衡的零界点,美联储要么抑制市场的隐含波动率、要么释放IV,释放IV有两个点:1是有大事发生,如前面的国债流动性危机银行事件等,2对冲中等事件,如这波的关门、霸工,我判断美联储抑制IV的概率要大于释放IV,其二是去年都在释放IV,今年情况这么好,没理由再释放,但这波会议后,数据+官员的讲话,冲击了我的认为,今晚数据差于预期、如果官员讲话反过来偏鸽,那么冲击率加大、如果还是偏鹰的路径那么没有冲击波,后者也决定了VIX的走势,VIX下跌和下跌的速率决定了其与股市的相关性的大小;以上,应该可以决定市场箱体运动的幅度大小,其也跟IV正相关,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":66,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/227021600936000","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":13974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":283206034890968,"gmtCreate":1710170483770,"gmtModify":1710173759693,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 基于目前的英伟达的状况,来谈谈下一浪,下一浪的下一浪上次说没了,那么就说下一浪,看今天盘前和盘后的蛛丝马迹,是有人在做空美弟的,原因我前面的帖子里说过了,佬鲍和耶伦会以生产率的提高来推动下步的经济扩张,以房地产等pass;目前市场这种四两拨千金的位置、不做空美弟打断其意图不行滴;蛛丝马迹:盘前对比以前那次疫情前几天的特斯拉,在第二次冲击1000的道路上到了925左右被疫情over了,这次盘前921,开盘梦啦VIX,没想到人家压桌VIX震荡上行;看目前盘面,基于财报的这一浪是到不了1080了,以目前的态势,顶多102几,要是再跌,破坏这浪,两个:不过1000或者重新来一小浪浪到1080,如果跌到700多,那么就是大浪,基于生产率的提高,因为大市值会上看3万亿也就是1300这样,大浪700多-1300,跌得多浪会越大,跌得少目前这样顶多这浪延续102几,跌的多点走小浪到不了1000再走浪1300,就这三种路径了,除非佬鲍和耶伦不想要生产率而选择以房地产等来扩张经济,概率几乎为零,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":31,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/283206034890968","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":20421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000298","authorId":"9000000000000298","name":"海明威78","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/49ce3ebb7bc89a87c064908623092f59","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000298","idStr":"9000000000000298"},"content":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来","text":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来","html":"英伟达要是立不起来,估计美股指数也立不起来"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000300","authorId":"9000000000000300","name":"股友之家00","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3cf1da32355d7fcd455bcb763ef83cd5","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000300","idStr":"9000000000000300"},"content":"数波浪这方面你是专业的","text":"数波浪这方面你是专业的","html":"数波浪这方面你是专业的"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":296265465610488,"gmtCreate":1713368123907,"gmtModify":1713368146050,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 接以前的帖子吧,清晰的谈谈Q2财报季: 1)确认二次通胀开始上行而美指10Y美元压制不住时,那么就是开始传导到股市和信用债了,股市开启下行趋势、信用债利差扩张趋势,这里,股市里强中弱股票标的,受财报里盈利亏损的影响,亏损的下行速度肯定大、而盈利的会脉冲上涨一下再慢速下行,弱势的肯定会区间性的扩大,即使盈利也脉冲下然后下跌相对快点,月底的PCE是个确定因子, 2)如果不能确认通胀二次开始,只是CPI的基本确认、而P CE是还下行颠簸路径的,同时美指和10Y还在拉,那么可以断定股市和信用债就是目前的震荡区间,财报季的盈利亏损会造成脉冲式的影响、没有速率,有些会刺破底部有些会刺破区间顶部但并不会成为趋势、后续就看货币市场基金的流出量和、通胀VS经济的走势 然后再说说速率的简单分析方法的误差性与随机性的对比,","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7bd778bf478de10764ec3f2e9cc5a4e","width":"3024","height":"4032"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":21,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/296265465610488","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000318","authorId":"9000000000000318","name":"超跌反弹NS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78783ce3e429ee2122ef7f1aa2114299","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000318","idStr":"9000000000000318"},"content":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍","text":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍","html":"你的分析对于Q2财报季的走势非常清晰,让人信服。感谢你的内容,👍"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010328","authorId":"10000000000010328","name":"准备好了大忽悠","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c05637de10fca666e37d2c570e52012a","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010328","idStr":"10000000000010328"},"content":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。","text":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。","html":"此外,对于速率的简单分析方法,需要注意其误差性和随机性。"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":665736854,"gmtCreate":1667481176278,"gmtModify":1667481178157,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$</a>我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$我自己个人对期权玩家的划分:初级,中级,高级; 初级:策略+波动率,芝商所去年还看到有近30种策略,今年看都削掉了一半, 中级:在初级的基础上,加上希腊值,和一些中性策略,希腊值是知道希腊值在整个期权链里面的动态波动走势,如财报前后做市商拉高IV,财报后的IV下降,这里面的各个希腊值是怎么动态变动的;平时没什么情况希腊值是怎么变动的;上行时希腊值在期权链里面是怎么变动的,下行或震荡希腊值又是怎么动态变动的; 高级,在中级的基础上,希腊值的二阶导数的玩法,如Vega对冲,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":4,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/665736854","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":7403,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":295992155099384,"gmtCreate":1713293827416,"gmtModify":1713320003661,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 目前,观察美联储路径的方法:就一个对比性的指标,道指标普纳指。道指已经接近去年12月28号的节点,标普纳指还没有,那么通过盘面分析技术,标普纳指还得跟跌。个股里面,AI板块是回调最大的,虽然前面几个月涨能最强,尤其英伟达。两个路径:地缘引发VIX施加三大盘,或者财报的大的不佳引发标普纳指跟跌。道指相对于最高点跌了6%,标普纳指是4.5,缺口补齐是肯定的。是否6再下刺就看月底的PCE。英伟达抛开财报不讲,宏观大势和技术面很难破820。如何PCE验证通胀只是下行的颠簸?抛开地缘,820就是浪底,也是最佳单边call的入场口。当然,IV VS上一浪的时间*3是检验其call性价比的一个重要指标。IV低并时间短、call倍数高,下注肯定要大;IV高时间长倍数低,性价比最差。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":2,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/295992155099384","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":25394,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3437340877473194","authorId":"3437340877473194","name":"Cjfsky201610","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/990f83875eb3fd831df53d5601c8bd7c","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3437340877473194","idStr":"3437340877473194"},"content":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。","text":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。","html":"可不可以认为工业空心化导致了道指跌得厉害,而纳指和标普里都包含了对AI的全球占比高的预期因素。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000255","authorId":"9000000000000255","name":"森林之王伍德","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5b281a4dbc6b48ecea5562613495fa83","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000255","idStr":"9000000000000255"},"content":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!","text":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!","html":"👏👏👏感谢你的精彩分析和投资建议!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":297068569248032,"gmtCreate":1713555242326,"gmtModify":1713701019297,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 英伟达这760750差不多就是底部了,要是PCE证强,整个整个股市再跌,波动太大、很容易冲击美联储的路径,pass,从这个结果出发,PCE证伪比证强的概率大很多,如何真的错误、那么意外着后面就是鱼更大、证强会把所有的指标像弹簧一样压到极致、出现最极致的单边call点,而且还是大范围多板块的单边call点,出现这种情况、市场上的资金也填不了这个call点、即使美联储马上100%停止缩表,这个点会把货币市场和避险资金都吸干,财政赤字扩大或美联储再QE才能压住这个点,这种情况pass,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":24,"commentSize":14,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/297068569248032","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":38690,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4117540333361860","authorId":"4117540333361860","name":"Frank fire","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ed681945dd8bc74cc881f0516277a79c","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"4117540333361860","idStr":"4117540333361860"},"content":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?","text":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?","html":"请教博主,市场上的资金为何会填补不了这个上涨点?仅PCE证伪会有那么大威力?"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010286","authorId":"10000000000010286","name":"老地方等你","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3bdd403049856caa030d5acaf3e72506","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010286","idStr":"10000000000010286"},"content":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。","text":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。","html":"英伟达的股价现在大约在760.75,已经接近底部了。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":430946821087544,"gmtCreate":1746182446987,"gmtModify":1746182448714,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","listText":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","text":"高盛反着买、别墅靠大海,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/430946821087544","repostId":"2532731892","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2532731892","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"追踪全球财经热点,精选影响您财富的资讯,投资理财必备神器!","home_visible":1,"media_name":"华尔街见闻","id":"1084101182","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e"},"pubTimestamp":1746178879,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2532731892?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-02 17:41","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"风险资产和商品都“未充分定价衰退风险”,高盛:对冲衰退,建议多金、空油!","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2532731892","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"考虑到特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。如果美国全面步入衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点,美债、美元等传统安全资产继续下跌。","content":"<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>考虑到特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。如果美国全面步入衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点,美债、美元等传统安全资产继续下跌。</p></blockquote><p>随着贸易战释放越来越多缓和信号,全球股市迎来一轮大反弹,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数已经连涨八天。然而,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为,特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,风险资产大幅低估了美国经济衰退的风险,美债、美元等传统安全资产可能继续下跌,而黄金、石油看跌期权有望成为最佳避险工具。</p><p>追风交易台消息,<strong>高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。</strong>同样重要的是,“4D结构性趋势”——去美元化、国防支出增加、能源去风险和铜矿投资不足——将长期利好黄金和铜。</p><h2 id=\"id_2130974840\">衰退风险被低估,传统对冲方式或失灵</h2><p>虽然最新经济数据看似坚挺,商品需求表现良好,但高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。这一判断基于几个关键因素:</p><blockquote><p><strong>特朗普政策:</strong>政策不确定性指数已经从长期平均水平108激增至近期的高位。</p><p><strong>企业信心受创</strong>:费城联储服务业和制造业调查以及纽约联储调查均显示,预期经济活动下滑的受访者比例已经接近历史高位。</p><p><strong>其他:</strong>实际收入增长可能放缓,金融环境仍然紧张,美国生产中断风险犹存。</p></blockquote><p>高盛估计,<strong>如果发生全面衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点</strong>(较周四收盘价低17.9%),美国高收益信用利差将扩大至788个基点,短期收益率将降至3%以下。</p><p>更令人担忧的是,高盛策略师指出,<strong>传统的投资组合对冲工具—长期美债和美元—可能继续无法有效抵御股票风险。</strong></p><blockquote><p>近期不寻常的“新兴市场式相关性”(股票下跌/收益率上升/美元下跌)清晰地表明市场正担忧最近的政策行动对美国治理和制度信誉的影响。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1206049314\">黄金——最佳衰退对冲工具</h2><p>高盛认为,美国治理和制度信誉担忧、避险情绪以及美联储更大幅度的降息,可能将黄金价格推高至远超其已经看涨的基准情景(2025年末3,700美元/盎司,2026年中期4,000美元/盎司)。</p><p><strong>在经济衰退情境下,由于ETF流入加速,高盛估计黄金价格将在年底达到3,880美元/盎司。</strong>而在极端情境中,如果市场对美联储政策从属风险或美国储备政策变化的担忧加剧,<strong>2025年末黄金价格甚至可能达到4,500美元/盎司。</strong></p><p>金价大幅上涨的一个关键驱动因素是近年来央行购金量的显著增加。自从2022年俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结,多个已经开始多元化减少美元储备,自那以来央行购金量增长了五倍。</p><p>而私人投资者的资产配置转变可能是金价下一个飞跃的关键。数据显示,全球黄金ETF持有量仅相当于美国国债市场规模的1%和标普500市场资本总值的0.5%。这意味着,即使投资者仅将小部分资金从美国固定收益或风险资产转移至黄金,也可能对相对规模较小的黄金市场产生巨大影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_3663549892\">石油看跌期权——衰退情境下的优质保护</h2><p>尽管在高盛的基准情境下,布伦特/WTI油价仅小幅下滑(2025年剩余时间平均63/59美元,2026年58/55美元),但石油看跌期权仍是优质的衰退对冲工具。</p><p>报告指出,与全球增长和石油需求放缓相比,油价在下一次衰退中可能出现更大幅度下跌,因为OPEC供应减产幅度可能小于过去三次衰退期间2.7百万桶/日的中值峰值至谷值下降幅度。这主要是因为OPEC目前拥有较高的备用产能。</p><p>在基准情境下(OPEC取消0.7百万桶/日减产计划),<strong>高盛估计在美国衰退情境下2026年布伦特原油平均价格为53美元/桶,</strong>在全球经济放缓情境下为47美元/桶。如果OPEC完全取消2.2百万桶/日的减产并且全球经济放缓,2026年下半年布伦特原油价格可能跌至40美元/桶以下。</p><h2 id=\"id_613233522\">“4D结构性趋势”,长期利好黄金和铜</h2><p>高盛认为,超越2025年的周期性疲软,市场应关注“4D结构性趋势”,这些趋势将进一步增强黄金和铜作为长期投资的吸引力:</p><p><strong>去美元化</strong>:美元仍然显著高估,但已开始贬值。高盛预计,关税和美国政策的其他转变可能导致美国企业利润和家庭实际收入增长放缓,美国资产表现不再特别出色,以及私人投资组合持久地减少美元配置的愿望。</p><p><strong>国防支出增加</strong>:欧洲正在进行大规模军事建设以支持乌克兰并提高安全独立性。高盛估计,欧洲在未来5年内将军费支出从GDP的2%提高到3%。根据高盛估计,美国国防部门约占美国铜、铝和锌需求的5%,镍需求的13%。</p><p><strong>能源去风险</strong>:随着美国将油气出口定位为讨价还价筹码和地缘政治支配力量的来源,其他国家可能会更积极地寻求能源安全,包括通过电气化,因为可再生能源和煤炭在许多经济体中通常比石油和天然气更容易在国内获得。高盛估计,电气化将在2024-2030年期间使全球铜需求年均增长率提高约2个百分点。</p><p><strong>铜矿投资不足</strong>:在低投资多年后,南美采矿供应的特别疲软开局支持高盛的观点,即铜价可能会恢复(假设没有衰退)到2026年12月的10,600美元/吨,这是激励智利棕地投资所需的水平。在衰退情境下,高盛估计铜价可能跌至成本支撑水平7,500美元/吨以下10%,达到6,750美元/吨,与过去主要经济下行期间所达到的低点一致。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>风险资产和商品都“未充分定价衰退风险”,高盛:对冲衰退,建议多金、空油!</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ 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padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n风险资产和商品都“未充分定价衰退风险”,高盛:对冲衰退,建议多金、空油!\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1084101182\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/66809d1f5c2e43e2bdf15820c6d6897e);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">华尔街见闻 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-02 17:41</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><blockquote><p>考虑到特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。如果美国全面步入衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点,美债、美元等传统安全资产继续下跌。</p></blockquote><p>随着贸易战释放越来越多缓和信号,全球股市迎来一轮大反弹,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/161125\">标普500</a>指数已经连涨八天。然而,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>认为,特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,风险资产大幅低估了美国经济衰退的风险,美债、美元等传统安全资产可能继续下跌,而黄金、石油看跌期权有望成为最佳避险工具。</p><p>追风交易台消息,<strong>高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。</strong>同样重要的是,“4D结构性趋势”——去美元化、国防支出增加、能源去风险和铜矿投资不足——将长期利好黄金和铜。</p><h2 id=\"id_2130974840\">衰退风险被低估,传统对冲方式或失灵</h2><p>虽然最新经济数据看似坚挺,商品需求表现良好,但高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。这一判断基于几个关键因素:</p><blockquote><p><strong>特朗普政策:</strong>政策不确定性指数已经从长期平均水平108激增至近期的高位。</p><p><strong>企业信心受创</strong>:费城联储服务业和制造业调查以及纽约联储调查均显示,预期经济活动下滑的受访者比例已经接近历史高位。</p><p><strong>其他:</strong>实际收入增长可能放缓,金融环境仍然紧张,美国生产中断风险犹存。</p></blockquote><p>高盛估计,<strong>如果发生全面衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点</strong>(较周四收盘价低17.9%),美国高收益信用利差将扩大至788个基点,短期收益率将降至3%以下。</p><p>更令人担忧的是,高盛策略师指出,<strong>传统的投资组合对冲工具—长期美债和美元—可能继续无法有效抵御股票风险。</strong></p><blockquote><p>近期不寻常的“新兴市场式相关性”(股票下跌/收益率上升/美元下跌)清晰地表明市场正担忧最近的政策行动对美国治理和制度信誉的影响。</p></blockquote><h2 id=\"id_1206049314\">黄金——最佳衰退对冲工具</h2><p>高盛认为,美国治理和制度信誉担忧、避险情绪以及美联储更大幅度的降息,可能将黄金价格推高至远超其已经看涨的基准情景(2025年末3,700美元/盎司,2026年中期4,000美元/盎司)。</p><p><strong>在经济衰退情境下,由于ETF流入加速,高盛估计黄金价格将在年底达到3,880美元/盎司。</strong>而在极端情境中,如果市场对美联储政策从属风险或美国储备政策变化的担忧加剧,<strong>2025年末黄金价格甚至可能达到4,500美元/盎司。</strong></p><p>金价大幅上涨的一个关键驱动因素是近年来央行购金量的显著增加。自从2022年俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结,多个已经开始多元化减少美元储备,自那以来央行购金量增长了五倍。</p><p>而私人投资者的资产配置转变可能是金价下一个飞跃的关键。数据显示,全球黄金ETF持有量仅相当于美国国债市场规模的1%和标普500市场资本总值的0.5%。这意味着,即使投资者仅将小部分资金从美国固定收益或风险资产转移至黄金,也可能对相对规模较小的黄金市场产生巨大影响。</p><h2 id=\"id_3663549892\">石油看跌期权——衰退情境下的优质保护</h2><p>尽管在高盛的基准情境下,布伦特/WTI油价仅小幅下滑(2025年剩余时间平均63/59美元,2026年58/55美元),但石油看跌期权仍是优质的衰退对冲工具。</p><p>报告指出,与全球增长和石油需求放缓相比,油价在下一次衰退中可能出现更大幅度下跌,因为OPEC供应减产幅度可能小于过去三次衰退期间2.7百万桶/日的中值峰值至谷值下降幅度。这主要是因为OPEC目前拥有较高的备用产能。</p><p>在基准情境下(OPEC取消0.7百万桶/日减产计划),<strong>高盛估计在美国衰退情境下2026年布伦特原油平均价格为53美元/桶,</strong>在全球经济放缓情境下为47美元/桶。如果OPEC完全取消2.2百万桶/日的减产并且全球经济放缓,2026年下半年布伦特原油价格可能跌至40美元/桶以下。</p><h2 id=\"id_613233522\">“4D结构性趋势”,长期利好黄金和铜</h2><p>高盛认为,超越2025年的周期性疲软,市场应关注“4D结构性趋势”,这些趋势将进一步增强黄金和铜作为长期投资的吸引力:</p><p><strong>去美元化</strong>:美元仍然显著高估,但已开始贬值。高盛预计,关税和美国政策的其他转变可能导致美国企业利润和家庭实际收入增长放缓,美国资产表现不再特别出色,以及私人投资组合持久地减少美元配置的愿望。</p><p><strong>国防支出增加</strong>:欧洲正在进行大规模军事建设以支持乌克兰并提高安全独立性。高盛估计,欧洲在未来5年内将军费支出从GDP的2%提高到3%。根据高盛估计,美国国防部门约占美国铜、铝和锌需求的5%,镍需求的13%。</p><p><strong>能源去风险</strong>:随着美国将油气出口定位为讨价还价筹码和地缘政治支配力量的来源,其他国家可能会更积极地寻求能源安全,包括通过电气化,因为可再生能源和煤炭在许多经济体中通常比石油和天然气更容易在国内获得。高盛估计,电气化将在2024-2030年期间使全球铜需求年均增长率提高约2个百分点。</p><p><strong>铜矿投资不足</strong>:在低投资多年后,南美采矿供应的特别疲软开局支持高盛的观点,即铜价可能会恢复(假设没有衰退)到2026年12月的10,600美元/吨,这是激励智利棕地投资所需的水平。在衰退情境下,高盛估计铜价可能跌至成本支撑水平7,500美元/吨以下10%,达到6,750美元/吨,与过去主要经济下行期间所达到的低点一致。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4f6ec6e99c0c8b9feb7f296b78c65a54","relate_stocks":{"BK4585":"ETF&股票定投概念","LU2237438978.USD":"Amundi Funds US Pioneer A2 (C) USD","IE0034235188.USD":"PINEBRIDGE GLOBAL FOCUS EQUITY \"A\" (USD) ACC","BK4127":"投资银行业与经纪业","LU0048573561.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) INC","LU1791807156.HKD":"BGF WORLD FINANCIALS \"A2\" (HKDHDG) ACC","LU2750360997.AUD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (AUDHDG) INC","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","LU0251142724.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD","LU0251131958.USD":"FIDELITY AMERICA \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443382.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA USD","LU1868837300.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"9\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443549.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A MIncA SGD-H","LU2237443895.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) ACC","BK4516":"特朗普概念","LU2237443465.HKD":"abrdn SICAV I - GLOBAL DYNAMIC DIVIDEND \"A\" (HKD) INC","LU2237443622.USD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc USD","BK4504":"桥水持仓","IE00BFXG1179.USD":"BNY MELLON U.S. EQUITY INCOME \"B\" (USD) INC","IE0004086264.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU2237443978.SGD":"Aberdeen Standard SICAV I - Global Dynamic Dividend A Acc SGD-H","LU1868836914.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"3\" (USD) ACC","LU0061475181.USD":"THREADNEEDLE (LUX) AMERICAN \"AU\" (USD) ACC","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4588":"碎股","LU1868837136.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"8\" (USD) ACC","IE00B19Z3581.USD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc USD","IE0004091025.USD":"BNY MELLON GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES \"B\" (USD) ACC","BK4552":"Archegos爆仓风波概念","LU1868836591.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"1U\"(USD) ACC","LU2471134952.CNY":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (CNYHDG) INC","LU0106831901.USD":"贝莱德世界金融基金A2","LU1868836757.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN FUND \"2\" (USD) ACC","LU1668664300.SGD":"Blackrock World Financials A2 SGD-H","LU2471134879.HKD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (HKD) INC","IE00B19Z3B42.SGD":"Legg Mason ClearBridge - Value A Acc SGD","LU0742534661.SGD":"Fidelity America A-SGD (hedged)","LU2471134523.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) ACC","LU0096364046.USD":"CT (LUX) I AMERICAN \"DU\" (USD) ACC","LU2471134796.USD":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (USD) INC","IE00BSNM7G36.USD":"NEUBERGER BERMAN SYSTEMATIC GLOBAL SUSTAINABLE VALUE \"A\" (USD) ACC","IE0002270589.USD":"LEGG MASON CLEARBRIDGE VALUE \"A\" (USD) INC","LU2750360641.GBP":"INVESCO GLOBAL EQUITY INCOME ADVANTAGE \"A\" (GBPHDG) INC"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3746385","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2532731892","content_text":"考虑到特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。如果美国全面步入衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点,美债、美元等传统安全资产继续下跌。随着贸易战释放越来越多缓和信号,全球股市迎来一轮大反弹,标普500指数已经连涨八天。然而,高盛认为,特朗普政策仍存在巨大的不确定性,风险资产大幅低估了美国经济衰退的风险,美债、美元等传统安全资产可能继续下跌,而黄金、石油看跌期权有望成为最佳避险工具。追风交易台消息,高盛预测,经济衰退情境下,金价有可能在年底升至3880美元/盎司,布油或跌至53美元/桶。同样重要的是,“4D结构性趋势”——去美元化、国防支出增加、能源去风险和铜矿投资不足——将长期利好黄金和铜。衰退风险被低估,传统对冲方式或失灵虽然最新经济数据看似坚挺,商品需求表现良好,但高盛警告称未来12个月美国经济陷入衰退的概率高达45%。这一判断基于几个关键因素:特朗普政策:政策不确定性指数已经从长期平均水平108激增至近期的高位。企业信心受创:费城联储服务业和制造业调查以及纽约联储调查均显示,预期经济活动下滑的受访者比例已经接近历史高位。其他:实际收入增长可能放缓,金融环境仍然紧张,美国生产中断风险犹存。高盛估计,如果发生全面衰退,标普500指数可能跌至4,600点(较周四收盘价低17.9%),美国高收益信用利差将扩大至788个基点,短期收益率将降至3%以下。更令人担忧的是,高盛策略师指出,传统的投资组合对冲工具—长期美债和美元—可能继续无法有效抵御股票风险。近期不寻常的“新兴市场式相关性”(股票下跌/收益率上升/美元下跌)清晰地表明市场正担忧最近的政策行动对美国治理和制度信誉的影响。黄金——最佳衰退对冲工具高盛认为,美国治理和制度信誉担忧、避险情绪以及美联储更大幅度的降息,可能将黄金价格推高至远超其已经看涨的基准情景(2025年末3,700美元/盎司,2026年中期4,000美元/盎司)。在经济衰退情境下,由于ETF流入加速,高盛估计黄金价格将在年底达到3,880美元/盎司。而在极端情境中,如果市场对美联储政策从属风险或美国储备政策变化的担忧加剧,2025年末黄金价格甚至可能达到4,500美元/盎司。金价大幅上涨的一个关键驱动因素是近年来央行购金量的显著增加。自从2022年俄罗斯外汇储备被冻结,多个已经开始多元化减少美元储备,自那以来央行购金量增长了五倍。而私人投资者的资产配置转变可能是金价下一个飞跃的关键。数据显示,全球黄金ETF持有量仅相当于美国国债市场规模的1%和标普500市场资本总值的0.5%。这意味着,即使投资者仅将小部分资金从美国固定收益或风险资产转移至黄金,也可能对相对规模较小的黄金市场产生巨大影响。石油看跌期权——衰退情境下的优质保护尽管在高盛的基准情境下,布伦特/WTI油价仅小幅下滑(2025年剩余时间平均63/59美元,2026年58/55美元),但石油看跌期权仍是优质的衰退对冲工具。报告指出,与全球增长和石油需求放缓相比,油价在下一次衰退中可能出现更大幅度下跌,因为OPEC供应减产幅度可能小于过去三次衰退期间2.7百万桶/日的中值峰值至谷值下降幅度。这主要是因为OPEC目前拥有较高的备用产能。在基准情境下(OPEC取消0.7百万桶/日减产计划),高盛估计在美国衰退情境下2026年布伦特原油平均价格为53美元/桶,在全球经济放缓情境下为47美元/桶。如果OPEC完全取消2.2百万桶/日的减产并且全球经济放缓,2026年下半年布伦特原油价格可能跌至40美元/桶以下。“4D结构性趋势”,长期利好黄金和铜高盛认为,超越2025年的周期性疲软,市场应关注“4D结构性趋势”,这些趋势将进一步增强黄金和铜作为长期投资的吸引力:去美元化:美元仍然显著高估,但已开始贬值。高盛预计,关税和美国政策的其他转变可能导致美国企业利润和家庭实际收入增长放缓,美国资产表现不再特别出色,以及私人投资组合持久地减少美元配置的愿望。国防支出增加:欧洲正在进行大规模军事建设以支持乌克兰并提高安全独立性。高盛估计,欧洲在未来5年内将军费支出从GDP的2%提高到3%。根据高盛估计,美国国防部门约占美国铜、铝和锌需求的5%,镍需求的13%。能源去风险:随着美国将油气出口定位为讨价还价筹码和地缘政治支配力量的来源,其他国家可能会更积极地寻求能源安全,包括通过电气化,因为可再生能源和煤炭在许多经济体中通常比石油和天然气更容易在国内获得。高盛估计,电气化将在2024-2030年期间使全球铜需求年均增长率提高约2个百分点。铜矿投资不足:在低投资多年后,南美采矿供应的特别疲软开局支持高盛的观点,即铜价可能会恢复(假设没有衰退)到2026年12月的10,600美元/吨,这是激励智利棕地投资所需的水平。在衰退情境下,高盛估计铜价可能跌至成本支撑水平7,500美元/吨以下10%,达到6,750美元/吨,与过去主要经济下行期间所达到的低点一致。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3443259955812259","authorId":"3443259955812259","name":"森焱鑫洋","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/357b7a5fb495989a98ac3bdd933533b7","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3443259955812259","idStr":"3443259955812259"},"content":"终于看到了8年前的标题!","text":"终于看到了8年前的标题!","html":"终于看到了8年前的标题!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":355107914191120,"gmtCreate":1727705825216,"gmtModify":1727705992948,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 一眼看穿大A: 1)不考虑风险、喜欢裸奔的,直接就可以买买买,当年日本的政策把日经指数涨了100%,现在全球都在开启降息周期宽松周期, 2)看宏观政策,参考当年日本的政策,14年的棚改化政策,现在的靶点是企业企业家, 3)综合交易来讲,今天大A典型的融涨,刺激政策+超预期政策+融涨,从2700左右到现在的3300,基本吃完,节后,基本锚定美元指数,与妹纸成负相关性、可能高达0.8以上,如妹纸破100,还得涨,基本不带回调的,破4000问题不大,如美指还在100-101整,小回调,后续就看企业和企业家的了、但市场会预期他们回购,毕竟国家队要买给他们滴,破4000概率比上面小点;如美指上涨趋势(但涨不太高,103差不多了、毕竟欧美阵营里,日本GDP2.9、西班牙3.0、新西兰负数,大点的国家还好、小国的GDP不忍直视,),大A大回调,这也符合4天涨2700-3300斜率都快90度了,然后,随着美指向100下跌靠拢,大A回调后上涨,破4000的概率比上面要小, 4)玩风险回报比,最好的情况对比当年的日经、100%,现在上涨了37%左右,风险-1对比回报0.63,缺口高达0.37,即使美指破100、用外汇来对冲这个缺口,在100以下做空美元好于在100以上做空、这个又优于做多人民币来对冲缺口,风险回报比也才1:1,没有一点吸引力,当然,你也可以去对冲风险端,变1:2什么的,国内有这个工具吗?一眼望去都是高风险低收益的工具, 5)纵观大A与宏观走势,大部分时间里,大A都不在宏观路径以内,其大部分数据都是脱离的,而现在、前面的出政策、超预期、融涨,2700-3300,都是在宏观路径里面,对比期权里的IV倾斜,叠加企业家门没这么快动作,打市场走势偏离宏观路径才是最佳的交易,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":18,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":3,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/355107914191120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":16007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4165787134050210","authorId":"4165787134050210","name":"业余的全职专业投资人","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4165787134050210","idStr":"4165787134050210"},"content":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!","text":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!","html":"就是想套外资韭菜的,外资都是SB没有用的,年初与去年放开新冠之后都是这样说的,结果呢?全部被打脸!"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":289696765968592,"gmtCreate":1711733382902,"gmtModify":1711735018284,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 都在大唱美股要回调,我是嗤之以鼻的,很多指标都吵买,尤其是水位的问题,看近半个月的很多翘翘版模式,流动性的缺紧张,但是把宏观放大了看、叠加佬鲍议息讲话、叠加宏观目前发生的事情,可以得出结论:是调整或者说风格在切换,而不是进入回调,切换是由流动性切换到资金使用效率,就像我半月前发帖说耶伦和佬鲍面临的一个很简单的选择题里的答案,目前观察近段VIX的走势,波动不大、说明切换很丝滑,很多AI浪潮的表的都保持着强劲的上涨动能,看英伟达,虽然调整幅度大,没去观察板块、不知板块在调整还是在轮动,我想官员讲话会照顾好这种切换,目前看官员的讲话并没有去放大波动,,SO,等切换完,资金使用效率高的板块和资金使用效率低的板块走势会完全分化,激进的押注资金使用效率高的,中性点的做多效率高做空效率低的,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":32,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/289696765968592","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":37286,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"9000000000000541","authorId":"9000000000000541","name":"新年新开始","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000541","idStr":"9000000000000541"},"content":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。","text":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。","html":"从长期来看,关注那些具有较强创新能力和利润率的行业和个股可能是更明智的选择。"},{"author":{"id":"9000000000000211","authorId":"9000000000000211","name":"咪咕蜡","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/075bc3e15bde527a282c42a96ff35a51","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"9000000000000211","idStr":"9000000000000211"},"content":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。","text":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。","html":"我会继续关注和分析市场走势,寻找一些相对优质的投资机会。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":373021227528576,"gmtCreate":1732115208025,"gmtModify":1732117756558,"author":{"id":"3503176530513854","authorId":"3503176530513854","name":"主神级交易员鄧文","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f2ca16674f05ce7610dac8b312ef4f5b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3503176530513854","idStr":"3503176530513854"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$ </a> 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","text":"$英伟达(NVDA)$ 昨天发帖说波动小,但小概率的是波动大,如果波动真的大,那么会出现巨鲸陨落,参考特斯拉,同时,科技浪潮都在明珠挡总统任上,就看破不破位了,如果走小概率叠加破位路径,那可以断定是巨鲸陨落, 这波财报季,大科技股的财报和基本面的作用基本为零,市场预期作用也为零,倒是指引和前景占比大点,而占比最大的是:超脱系统外,这个在财报占比大,看前面的几大科技股财报走势,","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":27,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/373021227528576","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":17040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3440540550401156","authorId":"3440540550401156","name":"KEINS","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70c84e27d76e3a3450fb952380b9db3e","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3440540550401156","idStr":"3440540550401156"},"content":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????","text":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????","html":"笑死,巨鲸陨落???哈哈哈,怎么你华为研发了替代品??你造出了英伟达芯片????"},{"author":{"id":"10000000000010339","authorId":"10000000000010339","name":"究极失眠患者","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1ad1b1423595443786a811bd5d0be2b","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"10000000000010339","idStr":"10000000000010339"},"content":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享","text":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享","html":"[惊讶] 这种分析真的是洞察力惊人,感谢分享"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}