时间之力的个人主页 - 老虎社区

时间之力

时间之力

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IP属地：上海

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5主题

0勋章

05-19

我开仓了2手$MET.HK 20250523 145.00 CALL$ ,卖put成交了，反手再卖call增加利润空间，核心是对公司本身有判断。

05-19

我平仓了300.0股$腾讯控股(00700)$ ,交易的基础是业绩，业绩底清晰，找交易机会。一年抓住一次足够

05-14

我开仓了3手$OXY 20250516 43.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

05-14

我开仓了4手$MET.HK 20250516 137.50 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

05-06

我开仓了3手$MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

2024-10-23

$拼多多(PDD)$ 他买公司就好了？他不买公司就不好了？

2024-06-12

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 认知到了，交易和持股不行，仍然赚不到钱。复盘为鉴

2024-02-09

$微型2年美债收益率2402(2YY2402)$ 哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗

2023-05-30

$特斯拉(TSLA)$ sell put at 180, sell call at205

2023-02-23

文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。

爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的

2023-02-18

$APOLLO出行(00860)$ 拟以20.2亿美元收购威马控股旗下WM MOTOR（威马汽车），以每股0.55港元配发288亿股的方式进行结算。目前现价才1毛7，意味着伪马还没装进来已经估值缩水只剩 3成，只值6 亿美刀了？

2021-10-01

$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$为啥我交易不了这个品种了@老虎证券

2021-09-27

$中国恒大(03333)$第一次卖空，哈哈继续看跌

2021-02-25

在一二线买过房的人，可以对比下贝壳和其他家的服务，完全是数量级的差异。所以，我认为贝壳就是拥有定价权，没毛病，继续涨

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-12

具体什么代码

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-02-08

$比特币基金(GBTC)$上看300刀

2021-01-04

$比特币基金(GBTC)$哈哈哈等调整继续淦

2021-01-03

怎么空?

@JOE9菜哥:$比特币基金(GBTC)$可以考虑做空了诸位

2021-01-03

我觉得会

抱歉，原内容已删除

2020-12-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$坚定看好老虎

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/434812709311120","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":432026336596040,"gmtCreate":1746497375330,"gmtModify":1747967245867,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我开仓了3手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT\">$MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我开仓了3手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT\">$MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我开仓了3手$MIU.HK 20250529 42.00 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/432026336596040","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363126830625088,"gmtCreate":1729696608077,"gmtModify":1729696610067,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> 他买公司就好了？他不买公司就不好了？","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">$拼多多(PDD)$&nbsp;</a> 他买公司就好了？他不买公司就不好了？","text":"$拼多多(PDD)$ 他买公司就好了？他不买公司就不好了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363126830625088","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1395,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":316116650668288,"gmtCreate":1718203204511,"gmtModify":1718624306112,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> 认知到了，交易和持股不行，仍然赚不到钱。复盘为鉴","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">$甲骨文(ORCL)$</a> 认知到了，交易和持股不行，仍然赚不到钱。复盘为鉴","text":"$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 认知到了，交易和持股不行，仍然赚不到钱。复盘为鉴","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/316116650668288","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1892,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":271924058579080,"gmtCreate":1707435035741,"gmtModify":1707435036601,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/2YY2402\">$微型2年美债收益率2402(2YY2402)$ &nbsp;</a>哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/FUT/2YY2402\">$微型2年美债收益率2402(2YY2402)$ &nbsp;</a>哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗","text":"$微型2年美债收益率2402(2YY2402)$ 哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271924058579080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2129,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182043843915864,"gmtCreate":1685452826335,"gmtModify":1685462606952,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>sell put at 180, sell call at205","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>sell put at 180, sell call at205","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ sell put at 180, sell call at205","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182043843915864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624164850,"gmtCreate":1677162518470,"gmtModify":1677162521055,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","listText":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","text":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624164850","repostId":"1113392598","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113392598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677155926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113392598?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-23 20:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113392598","media":"读懂财经","summary":"长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。</p><p>2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。</p><p>内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，连续5个季度保持下降趋势。与此同时，公司会员数量四季度同比增长15.1%，会员ARPU值同比增长0.7%。</p><p>与大多数人想象的不同，爱奇艺的盈利，并非完全是“抠”出来的。一方面，影视投资遇冷，使平台议价能力不断提升；另一方面，爱奇艺与腾讯视频、优酷在内容供给数量和质量上都拉开了明显的差距。</p><p>形势看起来一片大好。在去年环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。</p><p>本文持有以下核心观点：</p><p>1、<b>爱奇艺打破了长视频平台依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。</b>以往长视频注重靠内容“军备竞赛”拉用户。但爱奇艺内容成本连续5个季度下降后，会员数量不降反升，说明长视频平台有能力在控制成本的基础上，实现用户、营收增长。</p><p>2、<b>爱奇艺盈利离不开供给端改善。</b>影视投资遇冷，演员无戏可拍，使爱奇艺等长视频平台拿到了行业议价权，其影视剧成本开始降低。并且这种供给端改善的成本降低，也不会影响爱奇艺对爆款剧的投入，其内容质量依然维持在高水准，在2022年4季度，其市占率创新高。</p><p>3、<b>长视频正重复啤酒的故事。</b>头部啤酒在通过价格战市场份额无果后，告别内卷，开始了以盈利为导向的默契提价。长视频也走到了和解阶段，这是每个企业的机会。但提价空间到顶、以及缺少海外市场，都使长视频仍有很大的不确定性。</p><p>01 内容成本同比下降19%，用户、营收不降反升</p><p>在首次实现年度盈利背后，爱奇艺的经营表现正在全面好转。2022年四季度，在广告业务表现不佳的情况下，爱奇艺会员营收实现47亿，同比增长15%。与过去几个季度相比，四季度爱奇艺的会员营收增速明显提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/060b299deab3b726f012de2a30a39551\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>从财报看，<b>四季度爱奇艺的会员业务营收加速增长，是由会员数量与会员ARPU值共同推动的。</b>在此之前，会员业务增长的逻辑更多是依靠用户ARPU值提升。2021年Q4-2022年Q2，公司用户ARPU值同比增速至少在3.8%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46bf8e081f958467a365b894c2803720\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>到了四季度，在用户ARPU值仍保持0.7%的同比增速下，爱奇艺会员数量为1.12亿，同比增长15.1%。这也是近5个季度。爱奇艺首次实现用户增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1eef9f4a3fec78e7c89dffe0b037045\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>会员数量重返增长后，会员结构亦有向好表现。爱奇艺管理层在2022年Q4电话会上提到，“与去年同期相比，第四季度年卡会员的占比明显增加。”这意味着，消费者因某部剧而来，又随某部剧播完离开的情况有所改善。</p><p><b>值得一提的是，爱奇艺收入的加速增长，还是在内容成本大幅下降的基础上实现的。</b>2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%。这是爱奇艺连续5个季度实现内容成本下降。其中，自2022年Q1开始，爱奇艺内容成本至少同比下降18%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df92ae4bb204954bf025f93436a2ae2e\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。<b>这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。</b></p><p>02 逆势盈利，是供给端的胜利</p><p>之所以爱奇艺能够实现降本增效，除了自身的主动调整外，更离不开行业供给端的变化。</p><p>在疫情以及经济下行压力下，影视剧投资遇冷。2022年，电视剧备案量已经由2019年下降的905部下降到472部。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff65c3670431338850a148ebf7b8c318\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>影视投资遇冷，使爱奇艺这样的头部平台出现议价能力进一步提升。</b>据制片人江江透露，一线演员片酬之前在5000—8000万之间，如今需要打对折。而活跃都市剧中的中生代演员，原来一部戏能要一两千万，如今只需要500万。龚宇在早些时候也表示，采购的版权成本从最高超过1500万一集电视剧，现在回落到800万以下。</p><p><b>在内容成本整体回落的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端的表现也开始与同行拉开差距。</b></p><p>从数量上看，爱奇艺的内容数量降幅是爱优腾中最小的。2022年三季度，爱优腾均减少了剧集供应，其中，爱奇艺上新39部，同比减少7部；腾讯视频上新33部，同比减少10部；优酷上新22部，同比减少14部。</p><p>从质量上看，爱奇艺的表现同样优于其他竞对。根据云合数据发布的2022年连续剧网播表现，在全网连续剧有效播放TOP20、热播期集均有效播放TOP20三项主要榜单中，爱奇艺均有12部以上作品上榜。如果仅算独播剧的话，爱奇艺分别有9个、7个、8个，均为行业最好表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5828e525c91dae4894de604bf1727236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在会员内容有效播放的指标上，爱奇艺播放量为153亿，同比及环比分别上涨36%、14%。而腾讯的这一数字是119亿，同比环比分别下降9%、3%。优酷会员内容有效播放为81亿，同比上涨53%，环比下降3%。</p><p>总的来说，在行业整体成本下降的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端表现出明显的优势，是其经营效率全面好转的关键。随之带来一个问题：一直以来，长视频行业都被视为一个高度同质化的行业，我们应该如何理解当下爱奇艺的优势？这种优势又是否能够延续？</p><p>03 长视频的机与危</p><p>在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。为了吸引用户，他们彼此间大打内容的“军事竞赛”，巨资打造的剧集也充满了不确定性。</p><p>所以，在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。但近年来，长视频的逻辑正在发生变化。用户红利消失加上资本环境不佳，让国内的视频流媒体玩家已经逐渐达成一个微妙的共识，不再为了用户增长盲目烧钱，通过涨价谋求更好的财务表现。</p><p><b>某种程度上说，当下流媒体的局面有点像当年的啤酒行业。</b>2010-2017年间，啤酒行业非常不受资本市场待见，青岛啤酒的股价一直徘徊在30元左右。其中的原因便是，激烈的市场竞争，导致整个行业利润微薄。</p><p>彼时，国内的啤酒行业也掀起过一轮，类似流媒体行业竞争。百润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、燕京啤酒、嘉士伯为抢占市场，大搞“买10送2”这种价格战，在杀敌一千自伤八百的情况下，所有的企业都赚不到钱。</p><p>但打了几年后发现，五家啤酒企业的市场份额基本没有变动。因此，龙头啤酒企业的策略也逐渐从“市场为王”转变为“盈利为王”，这也带来了其盈利能力的提升。自2018年至今，青岛啤酒涨超178%。</p><p>从这个角度来看，流媒体的竞争格局正在复刻啤酒行业，逐渐从要规模走向要利润，从盲目内卷走向精细化运营。</p><p>如果说，盈利能力提升给了投资人看多爱奇艺的理由。那么，成长性就是摆在投资人面前的一个难题。</p><p>目前，国内视频网站基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/人均收入占比为0.8%、1.1%、1.5。对比奈飞，奈飞基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/月人均收入分别为0.3%、0.5%、0.6%。</p><p>奈飞的会员价格/月人均收入基本到顶，近两年该占比一直没有提升。奈飞的增长也开始更多的依靠价格体系下探，推出了价格更低的广告版会员。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/458f6a2d059310078965da399f4c1397\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>换言之，<b>在人均消费不及美国的情况下，国内会员价格/月人均收入远高于奈飞，说明国内长视频网站的提价空间已经不大。</b></p><p>在会员数量方面，爱奇艺连续两年会员数停留在1亿上下，海外市场缺失使其很难在用户数量上有更大的突破。</p><p>文化差异决定了国内视频网站很难复制奈飞。好莱坞输出了影响全球的文化，从20年代到现在，美国影片长期占据了部分国家80%的银幕时间。这种情况下，奈飞可以通过向海外输出内容，获得海外用户。而中国影视在海外的认可度和受欢迎程度不高，“爱优腾”全球化布局的难度数倍于奈飞。</p><p>在去年艰难无比的环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。</p></body></html>","source":"ddcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-23 20:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ><strong>读懂财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113392598","content_text":"长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，连续5个季度保持下降趋势。与此同时，公司会员数量四季度同比增长15.1%，会员ARPU值同比增长0.7%。与大多数人想象的不同，爱奇艺的盈利，并非完全是“抠”出来的。一方面，影视投资遇冷，使平台议价能力不断提升；另一方面，爱奇艺与腾讯视频、优酷在内容供给数量和质量上都拉开了明显的差距。形势看起来一片大好。在去年环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。本文持有以下核心观点：1、爱奇艺打破了长视频平台依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。以往长视频注重靠内容“军备竞赛”拉用户。但爱奇艺内容成本连续5个季度下降后，会员数量不降反升，说明长视频平台有能力在控制成本的基础上，实现用户、营收增长。2、爱奇艺盈利离不开供给端改善。影视投资遇冷，演员无戏可拍，使爱奇艺等长视频平台拿到了行业议价权，其影视剧成本开始降低。并且这种供给端改善的成本降低，也不会影响爱奇艺对爆款剧的投入，其内容质量依然维持在高水准，在2022年4季度，其市占率创新高。3、长视频正重复啤酒的故事。头部啤酒在通过价格战市场份额无果后，告别内卷，开始了以盈利为导向的默契提价。长视频也走到了和解阶段，这是每个企业的机会。但提价空间到顶、以及缺少海外市场，都使长视频仍有很大的不确定性。01 内容成本同比下降19%，用户、营收不降反升在首次实现年度盈利背后，爱奇艺的经营表现正在全面好转。2022年四季度，在广告业务表现不佳的情况下，爱奇艺会员营收实现47亿，同比增长15%。与过去几个季度相比，四季度爱奇艺的会员营收增速明显提升。从财报看，四季度爱奇艺的会员业务营收加速增长，是由会员数量与会员ARPU值共同推动的。在此之前，会员业务增长的逻辑更多是依靠用户ARPU值提升。2021年Q4-2022年Q2，公司用户ARPU值同比增速至少在3.8%以上。到了四季度，在用户ARPU值仍保持0.7%的同比增速下，爱奇艺会员数量为1.12亿，同比增长15.1%。这也是近5个季度。爱奇艺首次实现用户增长。会员数量重返增长后，会员结构亦有向好表现。爱奇艺管理层在2022年Q4电话会上提到，“与去年同期相比，第四季度年卡会员的占比明显增加。”这意味着，消费者因某部剧而来，又随某部剧播完离开的情况有所改善。值得一提的是，爱奇艺收入的加速增长，还是在内容成本大幅下降的基础上实现的。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%。这是爱奇艺连续5个季度实现内容成本下降。其中，自2022年Q1开始，爱奇艺内容成本至少同比下降18%。内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。02 逆势盈利，是供给端的胜利之所以爱奇艺能够实现降本增效，除了自身的主动调整外，更离不开行业供给端的变化。在疫情以及经济下行压力下，影视剧投资遇冷。2022年，电视剧备案量已经由2019年下降的905部下降到472部。影视投资遇冷，使爱奇艺这样的头部平台出现议价能力进一步提升。据制片人江江透露，一线演员片酬之前在5000—8000万之间，如今需要打对折。而活跃都市剧中的中生代演员，原来一部戏能要一两千万，如今只需要500万。龚宇在早些时候也表示，采购的版权成本从最高超过1500万一集电视剧，现在回落到800万以下。在内容成本整体回落的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端的表现也开始与同行拉开差距。从数量上看，爱奇艺的内容数量降幅是爱优腾中最小的。2022年三季度，爱优腾均减少了剧集供应，其中，爱奇艺上新39部，同比减少7部；腾讯视频上新33部，同比减少10部；优酷上新22部，同比减少14部。从质量上看，爱奇艺的表现同样优于其他竞对。根据云合数据发布的2022年连续剧网播表现，在全网连续剧有效播放TOP20、热播期集均有效播放TOP20三项主要榜单中，爱奇艺均有12部以上作品上榜。如果仅算独播剧的话，爱奇艺分别有9个、7个、8个，均为行业最好表现。在会员内容有效播放的指标上，爱奇艺播放量为153亿，同比及环比分别上涨36%、14%。而腾讯的这一数字是119亿，同比环比分别下降9%、3%。优酷会员内容有效播放为81亿，同比上涨53%，环比下降3%。总的来说，在行业整体成本下降的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端表现出明显的优势，是其经营效率全面好转的关键。随之带来一个问题：一直以来，长视频行业都被视为一个高度同质化的行业，我们应该如何理解当下爱奇艺的优势？这种优势又是否能够延续？03 长视频的机与危在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。为了吸引用户，他们彼此间大打内容的“军事竞赛”，巨资打造的剧集也充满了不确定性。所以，在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。但近年来，长视频的逻辑正在发生变化。用户红利消失加上资本环境不佳，让国内的视频流媒体玩家已经逐渐达成一个微妙的共识，不再为了用户增长盲目烧钱，通过涨价谋求更好的财务表现。某种程度上说，当下流媒体的局面有点像当年的啤酒行业。2010-2017年间，啤酒行业非常不受资本市场待见，青岛啤酒的股价一直徘徊在30元左右。其中的原因便是，激烈的市场竞争，导致整个行业利润微薄。彼时，国内的啤酒行业也掀起过一轮，类似流媒体行业竞争。百润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、燕京啤酒、嘉士伯为抢占市场，大搞“买10送2”这种价格战，在杀敌一千自伤八百的情况下，所有的企业都赚不到钱。但打了几年后发现，五家啤酒企业的市场份额基本没有变动。因此，龙头啤酒企业的策略也逐渐从“市场为王”转变为“盈利为王”，这也带来了其盈利能力的提升。自2018年至今，青岛啤酒涨超178%。从这个角度来看，流媒体的竞争格局正在复刻啤酒行业，逐渐从要规模走向要利润，从盲目内卷走向精细化运营。如果说，盈利能力提升给了投资人看多爱奇艺的理由。那么，成长性就是摆在投资人面前的一个难题。目前，国内视频网站基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/人均收入占比为0.8%、1.1%、1.5。对比奈飞，奈飞基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/月人均收入分别为0.3%、0.5%、0.6%。奈飞的会员价格/月人均收入基本到顶，近两年该占比一直没有提升。奈飞的增长也开始更多的依靠价格体系下探，推出了价格更低的广告版会员。换言之，在人均消费不及美国的情况下，国内会员价格/月人均收入远高于奈飞，说明国内长视频网站的提价空间已经不大。在会员数量方面，爱奇艺连续两年会员数停留在1亿上下，海外市场缺失使其很难在用户数量上有更大的突破。文化差异决定了国内视频网站很难复制奈飞。好莱坞输出了影响全球的文化，从20年代到现在，美国影片长期占据了部分国家80%的银幕时间。这种情况下，奈飞可以通过向海外输出内容，获得海外用户。而中国影视在海外的认可度和受欢迎程度不高，“爱优腾”全球化布局的难度数倍于奈飞。在去年艰难无比的环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1816,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625447479,"gmtCreate":1676696987891,"gmtModify":1676697491725,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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亿美刀了？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/625447479","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2361,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864600457,"gmtCreate":1633095188935,"gmtModify":1633095188935,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETHE\">$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$</a>为啥我交易不了这个品种了@老虎证券","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ETHE\">$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$</a>为啥我交易不了这个品种了@老虎证券","text":"$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$为啥我交易不了这个品种了@老虎证券","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c63e350ae73f2209a6d250dae12672af","width":"1170","height":"2026"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864600457","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"32620807141440","authorId":"32620807141440","name":"小小骆驼","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"32620807141440","authorIdStr":"32620807141440"},"content":"监管问题，国内已经不让买了吧","text":"监管问题，国内已经不让买了吧","html":"监管问题，国内已经不让买了吧"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866943023,"gmtCreate":1632728171062,"gmtModify":1632728171062,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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