时间之力的个人主页 - 老虎社区

时间之力

时间之力

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IP属地：湖南

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5主题

0勋章

08-07

专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题

谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考

10-27 18:06

我开仓了5.0股$SPDR黄金ETF(GLD)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

10-27 08:06

我开仓了5.0股$SPDR黄金ETF(GLD)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

2024-06-12

$甲骨文(ORCL)$ 认知到了，交易和持股不行，仍然赚不到钱。复盘为鉴

10-13

我开仓了1手$PDD 20251031 120.0 PUT$ ,去查看订单详情。

2020-12-14

$绿叶制药(02186)$欲哭无泪

09-12

我平仓了50.0股$德银沪深300指数ETF(ASHR)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-09

我开仓了$爱奇艺(IQ)$ ,爱奇艺的自制好看，唯一剩下的独立中国视频上市公司有没有价值。长期看

2021-02-08

$比特币基金(GBTC)$上看300刀

2020-10-12

$迅雷(XNET)$大家知道迅雷未来会成为什么吗？可以去查一下现在的话事人是谁，做过什么产品，背后投资人又是谁。给个提示，are you ready?

10-24

我开仓了10.0股$SPDR黄金ETF(GLD)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

06-23

我平仓了$三花智控(02050)$ ,无脑打新赚钱已结束

2021-10-01

$Grayscale Ethereum Trust (ETH)(ETHE)$为啥我交易不了这个品种了@老虎证券

2020-12-23

$老虎证券(TIGR)$坚定看好老虎

2020-10-12

$迅雷(XNET)$陈被董事会罢免，包括爆出这个事情，我认为是在有序出清。等待涅槃

10-24

我开仓了10.0股$Oklo Inc.(OKLO)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

10-24

我开仓了200.0股$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-29

我开仓了10.0股$联合健康(UNH)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

08-22

我平仓了500.0股$SharpLink Gaming(SBET)$ ,去查看订单详情。@小虎看单

06-25

我开仓了$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,对比下蜜雪和霸王，估值不对等，折价有点太大了。买个观察仓

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16:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169052407","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。<strong>腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842730381\" style=\"text-align: start;\">估值仍有空间，低于全球同行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，<strong>腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。</strong>从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至收盘，腾讯股价为639港元/股。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3bcc43d9350446a192d14eac577ce89\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2025201952\" style=\"text-align: start;\">AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，<strong>其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。</p><h2 id=\"id_669212140\" style=\"text-align: start;\">上调资本开支与云业务预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。<strong>该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，<strong>预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，</strong>远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2344954280\" style=\"text-align: start;\">游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>游戏业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。</p></li><li><p><strong>广告业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>利润率：</strong> 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-13 16:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169052407","content_text":"高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。估值仍有空间，低于全球同行尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至收盘，腾讯股价为639港元/股。AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。游戏业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。广告业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。利润率： 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488954349634216,"gmtCreate":1760400717770,"gmtModify":1760400720163,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每天5.5","listText":"每天5.5","text":"每天5.5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488954349634216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483779825038032,"gmtCreate":1759139100190,"gmtModify":1759139102978,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。 以此贴纪念带我入行的坤哥。","listText":"沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。 以此贴纪念带我入行的坤哥。","text":"沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。 以此贴纪念带我入行的坤哥。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/483779825038032","repostId":"1146772496","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1146772496","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1759133836,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1146772496?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-09-29 16:17","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"老虎暗盘 | “智能座舱第一股”博泰车联盘初涨超30%","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1146772496","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"达到国际先进水平。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>9月29日周一，“智能座舱第一股” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">博泰车联</a> 开启暗盘交易，截至发稿涨超30%，不计手续费每手赚超600港元。公司是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c1cf34d1a8dd6a513b2ff1906368db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>博泰车联始终专注于汽车智能化核心领域，是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。与多数侧重硬件组装的同行不同，博泰车联从起步阶段便构建了“软件+硬件+云端服务”的一体化发展模式，这种差异化战略使其在激烈的市场竞争中迅速建立起坚实的技术壁垒。</p><p>截至2024年12月31日，博泰车联在国内智能座舱和网联服务解决方案供应商中，注册发明专利数量位居首位。2023年，公司更是被国家发改委等四部门联合认定为“国家企业技术中心”，其两项核心技术获得国家新能源汽车技术创新中心的认定，达到国际先进水平。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎暗盘 | “智能座舱第一股”博泰车联盘初涨超30%</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n老虎暗盘 | “智能座舱第一股”博泰车联盘初涨超30%\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-09-29 16:17</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>9月29日周一，“智能座舱第一股” <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">博泰车联</a> 开启暗盘交易，截至发稿涨超30%，不计手续费每手赚超600港元。公司是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c1cf34d1a8dd6a513b2ff1906368db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>博泰车联始终专注于汽车智能化核心领域，是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。与多数侧重硬件组装的同行不同，博泰车联从起步阶段便构建了“软件+硬件+云端服务”的一体化发展模式，这种差异化战略使其在激烈的市场竞争中迅速建立起坚实的技术壁垒。</p><p>截至2024年12月31日，博泰车联在国内智能座舱和网联服务解决方案供应商中，注册发明专利数量位居首位。2023年，公司更是被国家发改委等四部门联合认定为“国家企业技术中心”，其两项核心技术获得国家新能源汽车技术创新中心的认定，达到国际先进水平。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65f6d722195807971ef1f77c699c839","relate_stocks":{"02889":"博泰车联"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146772496","content_text":"9月29日周一，“智能座舱第一股” 博泰车联 开启暗盘交易，截至发稿涨超30%，不计手续费每手赚超600港元。公司是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。博泰车联始终专注于汽车智能化核心领域，是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。与多数侧重硬件组装的同行不同，博泰车联从起步阶段便构建了“软件+硬件+云端服务”的一体化发展模式，这种差异化战略使其在激烈的市场竞争中迅速建立起坚实的技术壁垒。截至2024年12月31日，博泰车联在国内智能座舱和网联服务解决方案供应商中，注册发明专利数量位居首位。2023年，公司更是被国家发改委等四部门联合认定为“国家企业技术中心”，其两项核心技术获得国家新能源汽车技术创新中心的认定，达到国际先进水平。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02889":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464988673167640,"gmtCreate":1754547953251,"gmtModify":1754547955206,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","listText":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","text":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464988673167640","repostId":"2557374529","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2557374529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754481355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2557374529?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 19:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557374529","media":"昆仑侠","summary":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01448\">福寿园</a>公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：</p><p>1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；</p><p>2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；</p><p>3、<span>商誉</span>和<span>资产</span>减值。</p><p>4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250806201600511v15202xircrnan0\"/><p>简单说一下我的观点：</p><p>1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。</p><p>2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。</p><p>3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。</p><p>4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。</p><p>5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年<span>分红</span>是实打实的。</p><p>6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。</p><p>7、 现在的问题是要对福寿园未来长期<span>净利润</span>的一个稳态缺乏合理的推断，需要中报以及各地殡葬管理条例落实后后有个较为清晰的认知。</p><p>以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。</p><p>最后提示一下风险：以上仅作为我个人的一些理解，可能和事实有很大的出入，不作为任何投资建议或暗示，据此买卖，风险自负。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 19:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b><strong>昆仑侠</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01448":"福寿园","BK1215":"特殊消费者服务","BK1605":"殡葬概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2557374529","content_text":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年分红是实打实的。6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。7、 现在的问题是要对福寿园未来长期净利润的一个稳态缺乏合理的推断，需要中报以及各地殡葬管理条例落实后后有个较为清晰的认知。以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。最后提示一下风险：以上仅作为我个人的一些理解，可能和事实有很大的出入，不作为任何投资建议或暗示，据此买卖，风险自负。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"01448":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4199884945608990","authorId":"4199884945608990","name":"他化自在。","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"idStr":"4199884945608990","authorIdStr":"4199884945608990"},"content":"请教一下，常年亏损就没钱分红了吧？二季度亏2亿多，后面怎么看？这公司前景怎么样？","text":"请教一下，常年亏损就没钱分红了吧？二季度亏2亿多，后面怎么看？这公司前景怎么样？","html":"请教一下，常年亏损就没钱分红了吧？二季度亏2亿多，后面怎么看？这公司前景怎么样？"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":439093685162208,"gmtCreate":1748236136485,"gmtModify":1748236138125,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"海外，ai(nocode)都有不错进展。我认为jd影响是噪音，中期视角可以忽略，可能1/2季度大家会关注，到26年末我认为不会对现在格局有本质区别，抖音本地生活是威胁，接近52周低点，拿他3个月再看。25/5/26","listText":"海外，ai(nocode)都有不错进展。我认为jd影响是噪音，中期视角可以忽略，可能1/2季度大家会关注，到26年末我认为不会对现在格局有本质区别，抖音本地生活是威胁，接近52周低点，拿他3个月再看。25/5/26","text":"海外，ai(nocode)都有不错进展。我认为jd影响是噪音，中期视角可以忽略，可能1/2季度大家会关注，到26年末我认为不会对现在格局有本质区别，抖音本地生活是威胁，接近52周低点，拿他3个月再看。25/5/26","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/439093685162208","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1132,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":363126830625088,"gmtCreate":1729696608077,"gmtModify":1729696610067,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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&nbsp;</a>哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗","text":"$微型2年美债收益率2402(2YY2402)$ 哪位大神了解，给讲解一下呗","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/271924058579080","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2447,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":182043843915864,"gmtCreate":1685452826335,"gmtModify":1685462606952,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>sell put at 180, sell call at205","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">$特斯拉(TSLA)$&nbsp;</a>sell put at 180, sell call at205","text":"$特斯拉(TSLA)$ sell put at 180, sell call at205","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182043843915864","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1452,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":624164850,"gmtCreate":1677162518470,"gmtModify":1677162521055,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","listText":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","text":"文中提到：内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。 回复作者，你怕是不了解基本财务知识，内容成本是摊销口径，不完全是当期作品成本完摊销。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/624164850","repostId":"1113392598","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1113392598","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1677155926,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113392598?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2023-02-23 20:38","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113392598","media":"读懂财经","summary":"长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。</p><p>2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。</p><p>内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，连续5个季度保持下降趋势。与此同时，公司会员数量四季度同比增长15.1%，会员ARPU值同比增长0.7%。</p><p>与大多数人想象的不同，爱奇艺的盈利，并非完全是“抠”出来的。一方面，影视投资遇冷，使平台议价能力不断提升；另一方面，爱奇艺与腾讯视频、优酷在内容供给数量和质量上都拉开了明显的差距。</p><p>形势看起来一片大好。在去年环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。</p><p>本文持有以下核心观点：</p><p>1、<b>爱奇艺打破了长视频平台依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。</b>以往长视频注重靠内容“军备竞赛”拉用户。但爱奇艺内容成本连续5个季度下降后，会员数量不降反升，说明长视频平台有能力在控制成本的基础上，实现用户、营收增长。</p><p>2、<b>爱奇艺盈利离不开供给端改善。</b>影视投资遇冷，演员无戏可拍，使爱奇艺等长视频平台拿到了行业议价权，其影视剧成本开始降低。并且这种供给端改善的成本降低，也不会影响爱奇艺对爆款剧的投入，其内容质量依然维持在高水准，在2022年4季度，其市占率创新高。</p><p>3、<b>长视频正重复啤酒的故事。</b>头部啤酒在通过价格战市场份额无果后，告别内卷，开始了以盈利为导向的默契提价。长视频也走到了和解阶段，这是每个企业的机会。但提价空间到顶、以及缺少海外市场，都使长视频仍有很大的不确定性。</p><p>01 内容成本同比下降19%，用户、营收不降反升</p><p>在首次实现年度盈利背后，爱奇艺的经营表现正在全面好转。2022年四季度，在广告业务表现不佳的情况下，爱奇艺会员营收实现47亿，同比增长15%。与过去几个季度相比，四季度爱奇艺的会员营收增速明显提升。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/060b299deab3b726f012de2a30a39551\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>从财报看，<b>四季度爱奇艺的会员业务营收加速增长，是由会员数量与会员ARPU值共同推动的。</b>在此之前，会员业务增长的逻辑更多是依靠用户ARPU值提升。2021年Q4-2022年Q2，公司用户ARPU值同比增速至少在3.8%以上。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/46bf8e081f958467a365b894c2803720\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>到了四季度，在用户ARPU值仍保持0.7%的同比增速下，爱奇艺会员数量为1.12亿，同比增长15.1%。这也是近5个季度。爱奇艺首次实现用户增长。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a1eef9f4a3fec78e7c89dffe0b037045\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>会员数量重返增长后，会员结构亦有向好表现。爱奇艺管理层在2022年Q4电话会上提到，“与去年同期相比，第四季度年卡会员的占比明显增加。”这意味着，消费者因某部剧而来，又随某部剧播完离开的情况有所改善。</p><p><b>值得一提的是，爱奇艺收入的加速增长，还是在内容成本大幅下降的基础上实现的。</b>2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%。这是爱奇艺连续5个季度实现内容成本下降。其中，自2022年Q1开始，爱奇艺内容成本至少同比下降18%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df92ae4bb204954bf025f93436a2ae2e\" tg-width=\"612\" tg-height=\"372\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。<b>这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。</b></p><p>02 逆势盈利，是供给端的胜利</p><p>之所以爱奇艺能够实现降本增效，除了自身的主动调整外，更离不开行业供给端的变化。</p><p>在疫情以及经济下行压力下，影视剧投资遇冷。2022年，电视剧备案量已经由2019年下降的905部下降到472部。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ff65c3670431338850a148ebf7b8c318\" tg-width=\"482\" tg-height=\"290\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><b>影视投资遇冷，使爱奇艺这样的头部平台出现议价能力进一步提升。</b>据制片人江江透露，一线演员片酬之前在5000—8000万之间，如今需要打对折。而活跃都市剧中的中生代演员，原来一部戏能要一两千万，如今只需要500万。龚宇在早些时候也表示，采购的版权成本从最高超过1500万一集电视剧，现在回落到800万以下。</p><p><b>在内容成本整体回落的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端的表现也开始与同行拉开差距。</b></p><p>从数量上看，爱奇艺的内容数量降幅是爱优腾中最小的。2022年三季度，爱优腾均减少了剧集供应，其中，爱奇艺上新39部，同比减少7部；腾讯视频上新33部，同比减少10部；优酷上新22部，同比减少14部。</p><p>从质量上看，爱奇艺的表现同样优于其他竞对。根据云合数据发布的2022年连续剧网播表现，在全网连续剧有效播放TOP20、热播期集均有效播放TOP20三项主要榜单中，爱奇艺均有12部以上作品上榜。如果仅算独播剧的话，爱奇艺分别有9个、7个、8个，均为行业最好表现。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5828e525c91dae4894de604bf1727236\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"637\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>在会员内容有效播放的指标上，爱奇艺播放量为153亿，同比及环比分别上涨36%、14%。而腾讯的这一数字是119亿，同比环比分别下降9%、3%。优酷会员内容有效播放为81亿，同比上涨53%，环比下降3%。</p><p>总的来说，在行业整体成本下降的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端表现出明显的优势，是其经营效率全面好转的关键。随之带来一个问题：一直以来，长视频行业都被视为一个高度同质化的行业，我们应该如何理解当下爱奇艺的优势？这种优势又是否能够延续？</p><p>03 长视频的机与危</p><p>在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。为了吸引用户，他们彼此间大打内容的“军事竞赛”，巨资打造的剧集也充满了不确定性。</p><p>所以，在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。但近年来，长视频的逻辑正在发生变化。用户红利消失加上资本环境不佳，让国内的视频流媒体玩家已经逐渐达成一个微妙的共识，不再为了用户增长盲目烧钱，通过涨价谋求更好的财务表现。</p><p><b>某种程度上说，当下流媒体的局面有点像当年的啤酒行业。</b>2010-2017年间，啤酒行业非常不受资本市场待见，青岛啤酒的股价一直徘徊在30元左右。其中的原因便是，激烈的市场竞争，导致整个行业利润微薄。</p><p>彼时，国内的啤酒行业也掀起过一轮，类似流媒体行业竞争。百润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、燕京啤酒、嘉士伯为抢占市场，大搞“买10送2”这种价格战，在杀敌一千自伤八百的情况下，所有的企业都赚不到钱。</p><p>但打了几年后发现，五家啤酒企业的市场份额基本没有变动。因此，龙头啤酒企业的策略也逐渐从“市场为王”转变为“盈利为王”，这也带来了其盈利能力的提升。自2018年至今，青岛啤酒涨超178%。</p><p>从这个角度来看，流媒体的竞争格局正在复刻啤酒行业，逐渐从要规模走向要利润，从盲目内卷走向精细化运营。</p><p>如果说，盈利能力提升给了投资人看多爱奇艺的理由。那么，成长性就是摆在投资人面前的一个难题。</p><p>目前，国内视频网站基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/人均收入占比为0.8%、1.1%、1.5。对比奈飞，奈飞基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/月人均收入分别为0.3%、0.5%、0.6%。</p><p>奈飞的会员价格/月人均收入基本到顶，近两年该占比一直没有提升。奈飞的增长也开始更多的依靠价格体系下探，推出了价格更低的广告版会员。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/458f6a2d059310078965da399f4c1397\" tg-width=\"681\" tg-height=\"233\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>换言之，<b>在人均消费不及美国的情况下，国内会员价格/月人均收入远高于奈飞，说明国内长视频网站的提价空间已经不大。</b></p><p>在会员数量方面，爱奇艺连续两年会员数停留在1亿上下，海外市场缺失使其很难在用户数量上有更大的突破。</p><p>文化差异决定了国内视频网站很难复制奈飞。好莱坞输出了影响全球的文化，从20年代到现在，美国影片长期占据了部分国家80%的银幕时间。这种情况下，奈飞可以通过向海外输出内容，获得海外用户。而中国影视在海外的认可度和受欢迎程度不高，“爱优腾”全球化布局的难度数倍于奈飞。</p><p>在去年艰难无比的环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。</p></body></html>","source":"ddcj","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的</title>\n<style 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}\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n爱奇艺终于盈利了，但不是“抠”出来的\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2023-02-23 20:38 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ><strong>读懂财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f48fbc541b07547e95dfb5b1221fb6ed","relate_stocks":{"IQ":"爱奇艺"},"source_url":"https://mp.weixin.qq.com/s/e8TlJhNgw--AHmK7bCGKPQ","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113392598","content_text":"长视频终于交出了久违的盈利答卷。2月22日，爱奇艺发布2022年四季报。财报显示，2022年爱奇艺实现营收290亿，同比下降5%，扣非净利润实现13亿，首次实现全年盈利。其中，2022年四季度爱奇艺实现扣非净利润8.6亿，连续四个季度运营盈利。内容成本下降，会员数量、会员ARPU值等各项经营指标不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首次年度盈利的关键。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%，连续5个季度保持下降趋势。与此同时，公司会员数量四季度同比增长15.1%，会员ARPU值同比增长0.7%。与大多数人想象的不同，爱奇艺的盈利，并非完全是“抠”出来的。一方面，影视投资遇冷，使平台议价能力不断提升；另一方面，爱奇艺与腾讯视频、优酷在内容供给数量和质量上都拉开了明显的差距。形势看起来一片大好。在去年环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。本文持有以下核心观点：1、爱奇艺打破了长视频平台依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。以往长视频注重靠内容“军备竞赛”拉用户。但爱奇艺内容成本连续5个季度下降后，会员数量不降反升，说明长视频平台有能力在控制成本的基础上，实现用户、营收增长。2、爱奇艺盈利离不开供给端改善。影视投资遇冷，演员无戏可拍，使爱奇艺等长视频平台拿到了行业议价权，其影视剧成本开始降低。并且这种供给端改善的成本降低，也不会影响爱奇艺对爆款剧的投入，其内容质量依然维持在高水准，在2022年4季度，其市占率创新高。3、长视频正重复啤酒的故事。头部啤酒在通过价格战市场份额无果后，告别内卷，开始了以盈利为导向的默契提价。长视频也走到了和解阶段，这是每个企业的机会。但提价空间到顶、以及缺少海外市场，都使长视频仍有很大的不确定性。01 内容成本同比下降19%，用户、营收不降反升在首次实现年度盈利背后，爱奇艺的经营表现正在全面好转。2022年四季度，在广告业务表现不佳的情况下，爱奇艺会员营收实现47亿，同比增长15%。与过去几个季度相比，四季度爱奇艺的会员营收增速明显提升。从财报看，四季度爱奇艺的会员业务营收加速增长，是由会员数量与会员ARPU值共同推动的。在此之前，会员业务增长的逻辑更多是依靠用户ARPU值提升。2021年Q4-2022年Q2，公司用户ARPU值同比增速至少在3.8%以上。到了四季度，在用户ARPU值仍保持0.7%的同比增速下，爱奇艺会员数量为1.12亿，同比增长15.1%。这也是近5个季度。爱奇艺首次实现用户增长。会员数量重返增长后，会员结构亦有向好表现。爱奇艺管理层在2022年Q4电话会上提到，“与去年同期相比，第四季度年卡会员的占比明显增加。”这意味着，消费者因某部剧而来，又随某部剧播完离开的情况有所改善。值得一提的是，爱奇艺收入的加速增长，还是在内容成本大幅下降的基础上实现的。2022年Q4，爱奇艺内容成本为39亿，同比下降19%。这是爱奇艺连续5个季度实现内容成本下降。其中，自2022年Q1开始，爱奇艺内容成本至少同比下降18%。内容成本持续下降，用户、营收不降反升，是爱奇艺能够实现首先年度盈利的关键。这也一定程度上打破了此前长视频平台收入依靠内容成本驱动的逻辑。02 逆势盈利，是供给端的胜利之所以爱奇艺能够实现降本增效，除了自身的主动调整外，更离不开行业供给端的变化。在疫情以及经济下行压力下，影视剧投资遇冷。2022年，电视剧备案量已经由2019年下降的905部下降到472部。影视投资遇冷，使爱奇艺这样的头部平台出现议价能力进一步提升。据制片人江江透露，一线演员片酬之前在5000—8000万之间，如今需要打对折。而活跃都市剧中的中生代演员，原来一部戏能要一两千万，如今只需要500万。龚宇在早些时候也表示，采购的版权成本从最高超过1500万一集电视剧，现在回落到800万以下。在内容成本整体回落的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端的表现也开始与同行拉开差距。从数量上看，爱奇艺的内容数量降幅是爱优腾中最小的。2022年三季度，爱优腾均减少了剧集供应，其中，爱奇艺上新39部，同比减少7部；腾讯视频上新33部，同比减少10部；优酷上新22部，同比减少14部。从质量上看，爱奇艺的表现同样优于其他竞对。根据云合数据发布的2022年连续剧网播表现，在全网连续剧有效播放TOP20、热播期集均有效播放TOP20三项主要榜单中，爱奇艺均有12部以上作品上榜。如果仅算独播剧的话，爱奇艺分别有9个、7个、8个，均为行业最好表现。在会员内容有效播放的指标上，爱奇艺播放量为153亿，同比及环比分别上涨36%、14%。而腾讯的这一数字是119亿，同比环比分别下降9%、3%。优酷会员内容有效播放为81亿，同比上涨53%，环比下降3%。总的来说，在行业整体成本下降的情况下，爱奇艺在内容端表现出明显的优势，是其经营效率全面好转的关键。随之带来一个问题：一直以来，长视频行业都被视为一个高度同质化的行业，我们应该如何理解当下爱奇艺的优势？这种优势又是否能够延续？03 长视频的机与危在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。为了吸引用户，他们彼此间大打内容的“军事竞赛”，巨资打造的剧集也充满了不确定性。所以，在很长时间的人们认知里，长视频都是没有太多投资价值的行业。但近年来，长视频的逻辑正在发生变化。用户红利消失加上资本环境不佳，让国内的视频流媒体玩家已经逐渐达成一个微妙的共识，不再为了用户增长盲目烧钱，通过涨价谋求更好的财务表现。某种程度上说，当下流媒体的局面有点像当年的啤酒行业。2010-2017年间，啤酒行业非常不受资本市场待见，青岛啤酒的股价一直徘徊在30元左右。其中的原因便是，激烈的市场竞争，导致整个行业利润微薄。彼时，国内的啤酒行业也掀起过一轮，类似流媒体行业竞争。百润啤酒、青岛啤酒、百威亚太、燕京啤酒、嘉士伯为抢占市场，大搞“买10送2”这种价格战，在杀敌一千自伤八百的情况下，所有的企业都赚不到钱。但打了几年后发现，五家啤酒企业的市场份额基本没有变动。因此，龙头啤酒企业的策略也逐渐从“市场为王”转变为“盈利为王”，这也带来了其盈利能力的提升。自2018年至今，青岛啤酒涨超178%。从这个角度来看，流媒体的竞争格局正在复刻啤酒行业，逐渐从要规模走向要利润，从盲目内卷走向精细化运营。如果说，盈利能力提升给了投资人看多爱奇艺的理由。那么，成长性就是摆在投资人面前的一个难题。目前，国内视频网站基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/人均收入占比为0.8%、1.1%、1.5。对比奈飞，奈飞基础会员、标准会员、高级会员/月人均收入分别为0.3%、0.5%、0.6%。奈飞的会员价格/月人均收入基本到顶，近两年该占比一直没有提升。奈飞的增长也开始更多的依靠价格体系下探，推出了价格更低的广告版会员。换言之，在人均消费不及美国的情况下，国内会员价格/月人均收入远高于奈飞，说明国内长视频网站的提价空间已经不大。在会员数量方面，爱奇艺连续两年会员数停留在1亿上下，海外市场缺失使其很难在用户数量上有更大的突破。文化差异决定了国内视频网站很难复制奈飞。好莱坞输出了影响全球的文化，从20年代到现在，美国影片长期占据了部分国家80%的银幕时间。这种情况下，奈飞可以通过向海外输出内容，获得海外用户。而中国影视在海外的认可度和受欢迎程度不高，“爱优腾”全球化布局的难度数倍于奈飞。在去年艰难无比的环境下，爱奇艺能够实现盈利，是件不容易的事儿。接下来，摆在爱奇艺面前的问题是，未来的成长性应该从哪去找。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"IQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":625447479,"gmtCreate":1676696987891,"gmtModify":1676697491725,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 19:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b><strong>昆仑侠</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"01448":"福寿园","BK1215":"特殊消费者服务","BK1605":"殡葬概念"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2557374529","content_text":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年分红是实打实的。6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。7、 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