时间之力的个人主页 - 老虎社区

时间之力

时间之力

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IP属地：湖南

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71粉丝

5主题

0勋章

10-14

这种外行的话听听就算了，都是买方的bitc

三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速

10-14

每天5.5

10-06

我平仓了1手$AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL$ ,收手

10-02

我平仓了10手$OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-29

沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。以此贴纪念带我入行的坤哥。

老虎暗盘 | “智能座舱第一股”博泰车联盘初涨超30%

09-24

我开仓了2手$CMB.HK 20260330 40.00 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-19

我开仓了1手$ABNB 20251121 100.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-18

我开仓了1手$PDD 20251024 122.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-15

我平仓了200.0股$香港交易所(00388)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-12

我开仓了1000.0股$基石药业-B(02616)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

09-10

我开仓了500.0股$基石药业-B(02616)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

08-29

我开仓了100手$IQ 20251017 3.0 CALL$ ,新任老板，港股上市，爱奇艺又行了

08-09

我开仓了$爱奇艺(IQ)$ ,爱奇艺的自制好看，唯一剩下的独立中国视频上市公司有没有价值。长期看

08-07

专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题

谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考

07-31

我平仓了$Strategy(MSTR)$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！

06-25

我开仓了$霸王茶姬(CHA)$ ,对比下蜜雪和霸王，估值不对等，折价有点太大了。买个观察仓

06-24

我开仓了2手$ALB.HK 20250828 85.00 PUT$ ,卖put看多

06-24

我开仓了10手$MET.HK 20251230 200.00 CALL$ ,长期拿着，到年底再看

06-24

我开仓了1手$MSTR 20250627 350.0 PUT$ ,看好大饼

06-23

我平仓了$三花智控(02050)$ ,无脑打新赚钱已结束

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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16:42","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1169052407","media":"华尔街见闻","summary":"上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。<strong>腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。</p><h2 id=\"id_2842730381\" style=\"text-align: start;\">估值仍有空间，低于全球同行</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，<strong>腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。</strong>从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至收盘，腾讯股价为639港元/股。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/a3bcc43d9350446a192d14eac577ce89\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><h2 id=\"id_2025201952\" style=\"text-align: start;\">AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，<strong>其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。</p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。</p><h2 id=\"id_669212140\" style=\"text-align: start;\">上调资本开支与云业务预期</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。<strong>该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。</strong></p><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，<strong>预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，</strong>远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。</p><h2 id=\"id_2344954280\" style=\"text-align: start;\">游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张</h2><p style=\"text-align: justify;\">对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。</p><blockquote><ul style=\"\"><li><p><strong>游戏业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。</p></li><li><p><strong>广告业务：</strong> 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。</p></li><li><p><strong>利润率：</strong> 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。</p></li></ul></blockquote></body></html>","source":"wallstreetcn_api","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n三年3500亿！高盛大幅上调腾讯资本开支预期，看好云业务提速\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-10-13 16:42 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067><strong>华尔街见闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e7799eeb7043b8caaf3d109c3b13109e","relate_stocks":{"00700":"腾讯控股"},"source_url":"https://wallstreetcn.com/articles/3757067","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1169052407","content_text":"高盛在一份最新研究报告中重申了对腾讯控股的“买入”评级，并上调其目标价，认为尽管该公司股价今年以来大幅上涨，但其估值与全球同行相比并不苛刻。腾讯依然是中国市场最具确定性的人工智能应用受益者。据追风交易台消息，在12日发布的报告中，高盛分析师Ronald Keung等人将腾讯的12个月目标价从701港元上调至770港元。今年迄今，腾讯股价上涨51%，跑赢同期恒生科技指数44%的涨幅。高盛认为，尽管投资者对地缘政治风险的担忧再起，但腾讯的基本面依然强劲。其估值水平、在多个人工智能应用领域的变现潜力以及稳定的股东回报政策，共同构成了其核心投资逻辑。该行预计，市场对腾讯即将于11月13日公布的第三季度业绩，将重点关注其AI应用与资本开支前景、基础及多模态大模型能力，以及游戏和广告等核心业务的增长可见性。预计腾讯Q3营收同比增长13%，每股收益同比增长18%，后者的增速将持续达到营收增速的1.5倍。这主要得益于广告、游戏和消费金融等高利润业务的驱动，以及公司整体的经营杠杆效应。估值仍有空间，低于全球同行尽管股价已经历一轮重估，但高盛认为腾讯的估值仍不算苛刻。报告指出，腾讯当前估值对应2026年预期非国际财务报告准则（non-IFRS）市盈率为19倍，若剔除其投资组合，则为16倍。从国际比较来看，其基于国际财务报告准则（IFRS）的市盈率为22倍，低于Meta（24倍）和谷歌（23倍）等全球科技巨头。高盛在报告中给出了腾讯股价在基本、牛市和熊市三种情景下的估值，分别为770港元、846港元和541港元，认为其风险回报状况偏向积极。分析师认为，腾讯旗下资产的商业化程度相对不足，而AI将为各业务线带来多个新的变现驱动力，这为其未来增长留下了空间。截至收盘，腾讯股价为639港元/股。AI全面赋能，混元大模型取得突破高盛将腾讯视为“中国互联网行业中，定位最佳的AI应用核心标的之一”，其核心逻辑在于AI能够赋能腾讯的几乎所有业务线，包括游戏、广告、金融科技、云服务和电子商务，并通过其独特的微信生态系统和全球游戏资产实现落地。报告特别强调了腾讯在AI领域的最新突破。其自研的混元图像大模型Hunyuan Image 3.0，近期在权威的文本到图像模型排行榜LMarena上排名第一，表现优于包括OpenAI旗下模型在内的全球领先同行。这是混元大模型首次在全球基准测试中登顶。此外，其AI应用“元宝”App的日活跃用户（DAU）在第三季度实现了12%的环比增长（据QuestMobile数据）。高盛认为，借鉴Kakao与OpenAI合作将其模型整合进KakaoTalk的案例，微信未来在AI搜索和生产力功能之外，有望探索更多AI智能体功能，进一步强化其“超级应用”的生态地位。上调资本开支与云业务预期基于对AI需求的乐观判断，高盛上调了对腾讯的资本开支预测。该行将腾讯2025至2027财年的资本开支总额预测从3000亿元人民币上调至3500亿元人民币，并预计其2025至2027年的年度资本开支将分别达到1000亿、1170亿和1290亿元人民币。高盛认为，未来几年国内芯片供应的增加，将为腾讯的AI推理需求提供支持。资本开支的增加将直接利好云业务。因此，高盛大幅上调了对腾讯云的收入增长预测，预计其在2025、2026和2027年的增速将分别达到11%、25%和20%，远高于此前8%、7%和6%的预测。基于更高的增长预期，高盛也将腾讯云业务的估值从每股38港元提升至每股48港元。游戏广告增长稳健，利润率持续扩张对于传统核心业务，高盛同样维持乐观预期。游戏业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年的游戏收入将分别同比增长16%和18%。增长动力来自《三角洲行动》等新游戏的强劲表现，以及《王者荣耀》等常青游戏的稳健运营。此外，《流放之路2》等重磅游戏储备也为未来增长提供了清晰的路线图。广告业务： 预计2025年第三季度和全年营销服务收入增速均为19%。AI驱动的广告技术升级提升了点击转化率，同时视频号广告加载率的提升和微信搜索广告等新库存的释放，将持续推动广告收入增长。利润率： 高盛预计，腾讯的利润率将继续扩张，2025年第三季度的经营利润率（OPM）将扩大212个基点。但随着AI相关的GPU折旧成本、研发投入和营销费用增加，利润增长与收入增长之间的差距可能会在未来逐渐收窄。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"00700":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":488954349634216,"gmtCreate":1760400717770,"gmtModify":1760400720163,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"每天5.5","listText":"每天5.5","text":"每天5.5","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/488954349634216","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":486315368296752,"gmtCreate":1759757801131,"gmtModify":1759758628916,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,收手","listText":"我平仓了1手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL\">$AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL$&nbsp;</a>,收手","text":"我平仓了1手$AMD 20251031 165.0 CALL$ ,收手","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/486315368296752","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":312,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":484909941240656,"gmtCreate":1759415414027,"gmtModify":1759415416949,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT\">$OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","listText":"我平仓了10手<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/OPT/OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT\">$OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT$&nbsp;</a>,来看看我最新分享的订单！","text":"我平仓了10手$OXY 20251219 35.0 PUT$ ,来看看我最新分享的订单！","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/484909941240656","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":534,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":483779825038032,"gmtCreate":1759139100190,"gmtModify":1759139102978,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。 以此贴纪念带我入行的坤哥。","listText":"沈晖当年从这出走创立的威马，博泰已上市，威马今何在。创业者，不是背景光鲜亮丽就行的，要能一直在牌桌上。 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class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c1cf34d1a8dd6a513b2ff1906368db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>博泰车联始终专注于汽车智能化核心领域，是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。与多数侧重硬件组装的同行不同，博泰车联从起步阶段便构建了“软件+硬件+云端服务”的一体化发展模式，这种差异化战略使其在激烈的市场竞争中迅速建立起坚实的技术壁垒。</p><p>截至2024年12月31日，博泰车联在国内智能座舱和网联服务解决方案供应商中，注册发明专利数量位居首位。2023年，公司更是被国家发改委等四部门联合认定为“国家企业技术中心”，其两项核心技术获得国家新能源汽车技术创新中心的认定，达到国际先进水平。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>老虎暗盘 | “智能座舱第一股”博泰车联盘初涨超30%</title>\n<style 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/02889\">博泰车联</a> 开启暗盘交易，截至发稿涨超30%，不计手续费每手赚超600港元。公司是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75c1cf34d1a8dd6a513b2ff1906368db\" title=\"\" tg-width=\"755\" tg-height=\"385\"/></p><p>博泰车联始终专注于汽车智能化核心领域，是中国最早开发智能座舱解决方案的企业之一。与多数侧重硬件组装的同行不同，博泰车联从起步阶段便构建了“软件+硬件+云端服务”的一体化发展模式，这种差异化战略使其在激烈的市场竞争中迅速建立起坚实的技术壁垒。</p><p>截至2024年12月31日，博泰车联在国内智能座舱和网联服务解决方案供应商中，注册发明专利数量位居首位。2023年，公司更是被国家发改委等四部门联合认定为“国家企业技术中心”，其两项核心技术获得国家新能源汽车技术创新中心的认定，达到国际先进水平。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c65f6d722195807971ef1f77c699c839","relate_stocks":{"02889":"博泰车联"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1146772496","content_text":"9月29日周一，“智能座舱第一股” 博泰车联 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,爱奇艺的自制好看，唯一剩下的独立中国视频上市公司有没有价值。长期看","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/465584891560376","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3843,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":464988673167640,"gmtCreate":1754547953251,"gmtModify":1754547955206,"author":{"id":"3530617415391986","authorId":"3530617415391986","name":"时间之力","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/65460eb079130582b5559d08eb8ef0d2","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3530617415391986","authorIdStr":"3530617415391986"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","listText":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","text":"专业。当成高股息股买，这个价格没问题","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/464988673167640","repostId":"2557374529","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2557374529","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1754481355,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2557374529?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-08-06 19:55","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2557374529","media":"昆仑侠","summary":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。","content":"<html><body><article><p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01448\">福寿园</a>公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：</p><p>1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；</p><p>2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；</p><p>3、<span>商誉</span>和<span>资产</span>减值。</p><p>4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。</p><img src=\"https://fid-75186.picgzc.qpic.cn/20250806201600511v15202xircrnan0\"/><p>简单说一下我的观点：</p><p>1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。</p><p>2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。</p><p>3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。</p><p>4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。</p><p>5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年<span>分红</span>是实打实的。</p><p>6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。</p><p>7、 现在的问题是要对福寿园未来长期<span>净利润</span>的一个稳态缺乏合理的推断，需要中报以及各地殡葬管理条例落实后后有个较为清晰的认知。</p><p>以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。</p><p>最后提示一下风险：以上仅作为我个人的一些理解，可能和事实有很大的出入，不作为任何投资建议或暗示，据此买卖，风险自负。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考</title>\n<style 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href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1215":"特殊消费者服务","BK1605":"殡葬概念","01448":"福寿园"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2557374529","content_text":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年分红是实打实的。6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。7、 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现在的问题是要对福寿园未来长期<span>净利润</span>的一个稳态缺乏合理的推断，需要中报以及各地殡葬管理条例落实后后有个较为清晰的认知。</p><p>以上是我的一些思考，不要问我买卖操作问题，我不方便回答。</p><p>最后提示一下风险：以上仅作为我个人的一些理解，可能和事实有很大的出入，不作为任何投资建议或暗示，据此买卖，风险自负。</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n谈几点我对福寿园中报预警的思考\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2025-08-06 19:55 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b><strong>昆仑侠</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK1215":"特殊消费者服务","BK1605":"殡葬概念","01448":"福寿园"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN20250806201607a478b901&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2557374529","content_text":"福寿园公司发布中报预警，预计亏损 2.35-2.65 亿。公司公告是三个原因：1、宏观经济和客户消费更加谨慎使得业绩下滑；2、部分子公司因不同税务原因导致税务成本上升；3、商誉和资产减值。4、同时表示扣非后净利润率保持在较高水平。简单说一下我的观点：1、 因为去年底开始行业整顿，墓地出售价格受到窗口指导，公司此前预计营收下降 10%，墓地均价下降 25%，没想到直接给干亏了 2.5 亿左右。2、 业绩下滑是肯定的，但单纯业绩原因最多只是多赚和小赚的区别，不可能亏这么多，这个从商业模式就能理解到。3、 公告提到，不同子公司因不同税务原因，说明不是一家子公司，也是不同税务原因，这个可以参照去年年报，可能涉及税率增加和追缴，另一家同行万桐园发公告说的是适用税率提高了。这个不方便展开讲了。4、 商誉和资产减值，估计和去年的情况类似。5、 管理层被诟病很多，经常出各种幺蛾子。但不建议啥都往诚信上面去套。至少这几年分红是实打实的。6、 我认为福寿园公司的商誉模式是不错的，需求也是与日俱增的，这个到了一定年龄，参加一些白事会有更深的感悟。7、 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