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火火兔爸

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04-10 11:58

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 亚马逊烧一百亿美元落子工业ai 北京时间4月7日，据《金融时报》报道，杰夫·贝佐斯(Jeff Bezos)旗下神秘创业公司“普罗米修斯计划”从OpenAI挖走了一位xAI的联合创始人。眼下，普罗米修斯计划正在大举招聘，以实现其雄心勃勃的目标：打造能够改变工业领域的AI系统。据知情人士透露，xAI联合创始人凯尔·科西奇(Kyle Kosic)已加入普罗米修斯计划，该公司由贝佐斯和谷歌前高管维克拉姆·巴贾杰(Vikram Bajaj)领导。

04-10 11:54

讨厌的是业务被抢的预期可不是短期业绩能体现的。业绩出来也是冲高回落。

@微量德丰:$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 我看下来，Mike Burry 让不少看涨 PLTR 的人赚到了钱。几周后财报出来，PLTR 价格至少能涨 45，现在可是在 129。

04-10 00:50

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 模型不重要无人机配送才重要带来现金流

04-09 23:52

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 无人机快速配送可以显著拉升现金流。

04-09 23:09

$英特尔(INTC)$ 短期累积涨幅太高了，毕竟还都是空头支票

04-09 23:06

$英特尔(INTC)$ 61会是一道坎

04-09 23:06

$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 无人机配送加上云服务需求提升估值

04-09 22:33

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 主要微软亚马逊谷歌都宣布介入工业ai领域，引发资金厌恶风险，尽管替代pltr的逻辑并不一定成立。

04-09 21:02

$英特尔-T(04335)$ 什么情况？

04-08 23:39

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 和平对于pltr是不利的

04-07

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 机构持仓占比高跌不下去就起来吧

04-02

$美光科技(MU)$ 华尔街节前收割

04-01

$英特尔(INTC)$ 估值最高的时候接盘基金的筹码

04-01

$英特尔(INTC)$ 回购消耗现金利空啊

03-16

这篇文章不错，转发给大家看看

@khikho:AI估值循环的断层与救赎

03-11

$宁德时代(03750)$ 港股永远是早盘狂拉中午收割，下午再拉

03-11

$ARM Holdings(ARM)$ armCPU需求高增

03-06

$博通(AVGO)$ 博通的内存已经提前锁定产能，刚好度过内存紧缺的2026到2027阶段

03-06

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 全球开启资产挤兑现现金模式

03-06

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 已经结束

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Bajaj)领导。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551972736111640","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551971668517848,"gmtCreate":1775793276857,"gmtModify":1775793279303,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"讨厌的是业务被抢的预期可不是短期业绩能体现的。业绩出来也是冲高回落。","listText":"讨厌的是业务被抢的预期可不是短期业绩能体现的。业绩出来也是冲高回落。","text":"讨厌的是业务被抢的预期可不是短期业绩能体现的。业绩出来也是冲高回落。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551971668517848","repostId":"551890056962128","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":551890056962128,"gmtCreate":1775762387000,"gmtModify":1775791907516,"author":{"id":"10000000000010479","authorId":"10000000000010479","name":"微量德丰","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2214c44af667ceaccefbb23d0bcacbb8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"10000000000010479","authorIdStr":"10000000000010479"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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129。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551890056962128","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":150,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551808236484880,"gmtCreate":1775753449911,"gmtModify":1775753452156,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 模型不重要无人机配送才重要带来现金流","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">$亚马逊(AMZN)$&nbsp;</a> 模型不重要无人机配送才重要带来现金流","text":"$亚马逊(AMZN)$ 模型不重要无人机配送才重要带来现金流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551808236484880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667612229510","authorId":"3527667612229510","name":"William85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3527667612229510","authorIdStr":"3527667612229510"},"content":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！","text":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！","html":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551794251723480,"gmtCreate":1775749961063,"gmtModify":1775749964356,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3546249304196282","authorIdStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a 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模型不重要无人机配送才重要带来现金流","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551808236484880","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":270,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3527667612229510","authorId":"3527667612229510","name":"William85","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3527667612229510","idStr":"3527667612229510"},"content":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！","text":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！","html":"无人机配送真香，现金流哗哗来！"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":440268950704936,"gmtCreate":1748526446232,"gmtModify":1748526447399,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"作者没看懂pltr，应该对标微软","listText":"作者没看懂pltr，应该对标微软","text":"作者没看懂pltr，应该对标微软","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/440268950704936","repostId":"1168896343","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1168896343","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"为用户提供金融资讯、行情、数据，旨在帮助投资者理解世界，做投资决策。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"老虎资讯综合","id":"102","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1748514945,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1168896343?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2025-05-29 18:35","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"Palantir年内暴涨63%，领涨纳斯达克100指数，目前是阶段高点吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168896343","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"这家公司可能成为下一个软件巨头。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><em>作者：Trevor Jennewine</em></p><p><em>来源：The Motley Fool</em></p><p><strong>摘要</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir 股价今年迄今已上涨 63%，领涨纳斯达克 100 指数。</p></li><li><p>Forrester Research 将 Palantir 评为人工智能平台领域的领导者。</p></li><li><p>Palantir 股价今年两次突破销售额 100 倍，很少有软件公司能达到这样的估值。</p></li></ul><p>5月14日，Palantir涨至至每股133.49美元的历史高点。此后，该股小幅回落，但截至5月27日，其年初至今的回报率高达63%，仍领跑纳斯达克100指数。Palantir能否在2025年剩余的几个月里保持这一势头？</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da861aca043563e01bdbf9139515aac2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Palantir利用人工智能帮助客户优化决策</strong></p><p>Palantir为商业和政府部门的客户开发数据分析软件。其主要平台（Gotham和Foundry）允许用户整合信息、训练机器学习模型和查询数据。其配套的人工智能平台（AIP）是一个大型语言模型编排工具，可让客户将生成式人工智能融入到运营中。</p><p>Palantir 的关键优势在于其基于“本体”的软件架构。本体是一个构建于数据集和模型之上的框架，它定义了数字信息与工厂、设备和耗材等实体资产之间的关系。本体不仅允许用户查询数据以改进决策，还能创建一个反馈循环，随着时间的推移产生更深入的洞察。</p><p>Palantir 公布了令人印象深刻的第一季度财务业绩。得益于政府部门强劲的销售增长，公司营收增长 39%，达到 8.84 亿美元，这是公司连续第七年实现增长。非公认会计准则美股净利润增长 62%，达到每股 0.13 美元。管理层还上调了全年业绩指引，预计 2025 年营收将增长 36%。</p><p>Palantir 完全有能力保持这一势头。Forrester Research 将该公司评为人工智能和机器学习平台领域的技术领导者，预计该市场将以每年 40% 的速度增长，到 2028 年将达到 1530 亿美元。晨星分析师 Mike Giarelli 今年早些时候写道：“这家公司可能成为下一个软件巨头。”</p><p>然而，投资者不应忽视估值。估值目前对市场可能并不重要，但最终总会起到决定性作用。Palantir 目前的市盈率为调整后收益的 265 倍。对于一家预计 2025 年收益将增长 41% 的公司来说，这个估值看起来非常昂贵。然而，Palantir 已连续六个季度超出市场普遍预期，平均高出 10%。</p><p><strong>Palantir 是历史上最昂贵的软件股票之一</strong></p><p>我刚才提到，对于一家预计今年盈利增长 41% 的公司来说，Palantir 的市盈率 (P/E) 非常高。话虽如此，有人可能会认为，由于华尔街经常低估 Palantir，其盈利增长速度可能远超预期。所以，让我们从另一个角度来思考估值。</p><p>Palantir 的市销率 (P/S) 在 2 月份突破了 100 倍，并在 5 月份再次达到这一水平。我回顾了过去 20 年 50 多只软件股的估值：在此期间，只有另外 6 只股票的市销率超过 100 倍，而且它们最终都下跌了至少 70%，如下所述：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Bill Holdings 在 2021 年 9 月 8 日的市销率为 103 倍。该股最终下跌了 87%。</p></li><li><p>Cloudflare 在 2021 年 11 月 18 日的市销率为 114 倍。该股最终下跌了 83%。</p></li><li><p>SentinelOne 在 2021 年 9 月 16 日的市销率为 106 倍。该股最终下跌了 82%。</p></li><li><p>Snowflake 在 2020 年 12 月 8 日的市销率为 184 倍。该股最终下跌了 72%。</p></li><li><p>2024年12月26日，SoundHound AI的市销率为111倍。该股最终下跌了70%。</p></li><li><p>2020年10月19日，Zoom Communications的市销率为124倍。该股最终下跌了90%。</p></li></ul><p>如上所示，过去二十年中，除Palantir外，只有六只软件股的市盈率达到100倍，达到该估值后，其股价从峰值到谷底的平均跌幅为81%。我们可以将这个数字套用到Palantir身上，对未来可能发生的事情做出合理的预测。</p><p>具体来说，Palantir在2月18日收盘价为每股124.62美元，当天其市盈率达到了107倍的峰值。如果其表现与历史平均水平持平，最终将下跌81%，至每股23.67美元。这意味着其股价从目前的123美元下跌幅度大致相同。</p><p>当然，过往表现并不能保证未来的业绩，Palantir也有可能成为例外。但我认为投资者应该避免以当前价格买入该股。其风险回报状况严重偏向风险。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir年内暴涨63%，领涨纳斯达克100指数，目前是阶段高点吗？</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir年内暴涨63%，领涨纳斯达克100指数，目前是阶段高点吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2025-05-29 18:35</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p><em>作者：Trevor Jennewine</em></p><p><em>来源：The Motley Fool</em></p><p><strong>摘要</strong></p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Palantir 股价今年迄今已上涨 63%，领涨纳斯达克 100 指数。</p></li><li><p>Forrester Research 将 Palantir 评为人工智能平台领域的领导者。</p></li><li><p>Palantir 股价今年两次突破销售额 100 倍，很少有软件公司能达到这样的估值。</p></li></ul><p>5月14日，Palantir涨至至每股133.49美元的历史高点。此后，该股小幅回落，但截至5月27日，其年初至今的回报率高达63%，仍领跑纳斯达克100指数。Palantir能否在2025年剩余的几个月里保持这一势头？</p><p></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/da861aca043563e01bdbf9139515aac2\" tg-width=\"560\" tg-height=\"240\"/></p><p><strong>Palantir利用人工智能帮助客户优化决策</strong></p><p>Palantir为商业和政府部门的客户开发数据分析软件。其主要平台（Gotham和Foundry）允许用户整合信息、训练机器学习模型和查询数据。其配套的人工智能平台（AIP）是一个大型语言模型编排工具，可让客户将生成式人工智能融入到运营中。</p><p>Palantir 的关键优势在于其基于“本体”的软件架构。本体是一个构建于数据集和模型之上的框架，它定义了数字信息与工厂、设备和耗材等实体资产之间的关系。本体不仅允许用户查询数据以改进决策，还能创建一个反馈循环，随着时间的推移产生更深入的洞察。</p><p>Palantir 公布了令人印象深刻的第一季度财务业绩。得益于政府部门强劲的销售增长，公司营收增长 39%，达到 8.84 亿美元，这是公司连续第七年实现增长。非公认会计准则美股净利润增长 62%，达到每股 0.13 美元。管理层还上调了全年业绩指引，预计 2025 年营收将增长 36%。</p><p>Palantir 完全有能力保持这一势头。Forrester Research 将该公司评为人工智能和机器学习平台领域的技术领导者，预计该市场将以每年 40% 的速度增长，到 2028 年将达到 1530 亿美元。晨星分析师 Mike Giarelli 今年早些时候写道：“这家公司可能成为下一个软件巨头。”</p><p>然而，投资者不应忽视估值。估值目前对市场可能并不重要，但最终总会起到决定性作用。Palantir 目前的市盈率为调整后收益的 265 倍。对于一家预计 2025 年收益将增长 41% 的公司来说，这个估值看起来非常昂贵。然而，Palantir 已连续六个季度超出市场普遍预期，平均高出 10%。</p><p><strong>Palantir 是历史上最昂贵的软件股票之一</strong></p><p>我刚才提到，对于一家预计今年盈利增长 41% 的公司来说，Palantir 的市盈率 (P/E) 非常高。话虽如此，有人可能会认为，由于华尔街经常低估 Palantir，其盈利增长速度可能远超预期。所以，让我们从另一个角度来思考估值。</p><p>Palantir 的市销率 (P/S) 在 2 月份突破了 100 倍，并在 5 月份再次达到这一水平。我回顾了过去 20 年 50 多只软件股的估值：在此期间，只有另外 6 只股票的市销率超过 100 倍，而且它们最终都下跌了至少 70%，如下所述：</p><ul style=\"\"><li><p>Bill Holdings 在 2021 年 9 月 8 日的市销率为 103 倍。该股最终下跌了 87%。</p></li><li><p>Cloudflare 在 2021 年 11 月 18 日的市销率为 114 倍。该股最终下跌了 83%。</p></li><li><p>SentinelOne 在 2021 年 9 月 16 日的市销率为 106 倍。该股最终下跌了 82%。</p></li><li><p>Snowflake 在 2020 年 12 月 8 日的市销率为 184 倍。该股最终下跌了 72%。</p></li><li><p>2024年12月26日，SoundHound AI的市销率为111倍。该股最终下跌了70%。</p></li><li><p>2020年10月19日，Zoom Communications的市销率为124倍。该股最终下跌了90%。</p></li></ul><p>如上所示，过去二十年中，除Palantir外，只有六只软件股的市盈率达到100倍，达到该估值后，其股价从峰值到谷底的平均跌幅为81%。我们可以将这个数字套用到Palantir身上，对未来可能发生的事情做出合理的预测。</p><p>具体来说，Palantir在2月18日收盘价为每股124.62美元，当天其市盈率达到了107倍的峰值。如果其表现与历史平均水平持平，最终将下跌81%，至每股23.67美元。这意味着其股价从目前的123美元下跌幅度大致相同。</p><p>当然，过往表现并不能保证未来的业绩，Palantir也有可能成为例外。但我认为投资者应该避免以当前价格买入该股。其风险回报状况严重偏向风险。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d544e6f7498c68812d1a765bff723fc2","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168896343","content_text":"作者：Trevor Jennewine来源：The Motley Fool摘要Palantir 股价今年迄今已上涨 63%，领涨纳斯达克 100 指数。Forrester Research 将 Palantir 评为人工智能平台领域的领导者。Palantir 股价今年两次突破销售额 100 倍，很少有软件公司能达到这样的估值。5月14日，Palantir涨至至每股133.49美元的历史高点。此后，该股小幅回落，但截至5月27日，其年初至今的回报率高达63%，仍领跑纳斯达克100指数。Palantir能否在2025年剩余的几个月里保持这一势头？Palantir利用人工智能帮助客户优化决策Palantir为商业和政府部门的客户开发数据分析软件。其主要平台（Gotham和Foundry）允许用户整合信息、训练机器学习模型和查询数据。其配套的人工智能平台（AIP）是一个大型语言模型编排工具，可让客户将生成式人工智能融入到运营中。Palantir 的关键优势在于其基于“本体”的软件架构。本体是一个构建于数据集和模型之上的框架，它定义了数字信息与工厂、设备和耗材等实体资产之间的关系。本体不仅允许用户查询数据以改进决策，还能创建一个反馈循环，随着时间的推移产生更深入的洞察。Palantir 公布了令人印象深刻的第一季度财务业绩。得益于政府部门强劲的销售增长，公司营收增长 39%，达到 8.84 亿美元，这是公司连续第七年实现增长。非公认会计准则美股净利润增长 62%，达到每股 0.13 美元。管理层还上调了全年业绩指引，预计 2025 年营收将增长 36%。Palantir 完全有能力保持这一势头。Forrester Research 将该公司评为人工智能和机器学习平台领域的技术领导者，预计该市场将以每年 40% 的速度增长，到 2028 年将达到 1530 亿美元。晨星分析师 Mike Giarelli 今年早些时候写道：“这家公司可能成为下一个软件巨头。”然而，投资者不应忽视估值。估值目前对市场可能并不重要，但最终总会起到决定性作用。Palantir 目前的市盈率为调整后收益的 265 倍。对于一家预计 2025 年收益将增长 41% 的公司来说，这个估值看起来非常昂贵。然而，Palantir 已连续六个季度超出市场普遍预期，平均高出 10%。Palantir 是历史上最昂贵的软件股票之一我刚才提到，对于一家预计今年盈利增长 41% 的公司来说，Palantir 的市盈率 (P/E) 非常高。话虽如此，有人可能会认为，由于华尔街经常低估 Palantir，其盈利增长速度可能远超预期。所以，让我们从另一个角度来思考估值。Palantir 的市销率 (P/S) 在 2 月份突破了 100 倍，并在 5 月份再次达到这一水平。我回顾了过去 20 年 50 多只软件股的估值：在此期间，只有另外 6 只股票的市销率超过 100 倍，而且它们最终都下跌了至少 70%，如下所述：Bill Holdings 在 2021 年 9 月 8 日的市销率为 103 倍。该股最终下跌了 87%。Cloudflare 在 2021 年 11 月 18 日的市销率为 114 倍。该股最终下跌了 83%。SentinelOne 在 2021 年 9 月 16 日的市销率为 106 倍。该股最终下跌了 82%。Snowflake 在 2020 年 12 月 8 日的市销率为 184 倍。该股最终下跌了 72%。2024年12月26日，SoundHound AI的市销率为111倍。该股最终下跌了70%。2020年10月19日，Zoom Communications的市销率为124倍。该股最终下跌了90%。如上所示，过去二十年中，除Palantir外，只有六只软件股的市盈率达到100倍，达到该估值后，其股价从峰值到谷底的平均跌幅为81%。我们可以将这个数字套用到Palantir身上，对未来可能发生的事情做出合理的预测。具体来说，Palantir在2月18日收盘价为每股124.62美元，当天其市盈率达到了107倍的峰值。如果其表现与历史平均水平持平，最终将下跌81%，至每股23.67美元。这意味着其股价从目前的123美元下跌幅度大致相同。当然，过往表现并不能保证未来的业绩，Palantir也有可能成为例外。但我认为投资者应该避免以当前价格买入该股。其风险回报状况严重偏向风险。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":1.1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2411,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3579592247575705","authorId":"3579592247575705","name":"DrSean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1463b1fdc8546a7d7fce66ec56cb9ca7","crmLevel":7,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3579592247575705","idStr":"3579592247575705"},"content":"对标微软，你是在搞笑吗？他靠的是什么在对标？微软、google哪些在AI方面没有基础架构没有研究？一直在吹自己AI方向多强，你听过PLTR有出过什么前沿算法的研究吗？Goolge18年就架构了 Transformer模型，现在主流方向都在用这个，Deepseek用蒸馏模型，他提出什么模型了？比别人好了吗？销售方面政府订单一半，说明没有市场竞争能力，靠的都是政府关系，你见过国内哪家公司靠政府关系能做大的？而且这个情况在美国，你觉得他能吃下多少市场？现在一个季度销售8个亿，每个季度增长这么点，现在市值已经3000亿美金了，你对他估值是多少？难道1万亿？现在万亿的公司一共5家，全世界都能看到他们的产品，你见过PLTR的产品吗？想想这些再做多吧。","text":"对标微软，你是在搞笑吗？他靠的是什么在对标？微软、google哪些在AI方面没有基础架构没有研究？一直在吹自己AI方向多强，你听过PLTR有出过什么前沿算法的研究吗？Goolge18年就架构了 Transformer模型，现在主流方向都在用这个，Deepseek用蒸馏模型，他提出什么模型了？比别人好了吗？销售方面政府订单一半，说明没有市场竞争能力，靠的都是政府关系，你见过国内哪家公司靠政府关系能做大的？而且这个情况在美国，你觉得他能吃下多少市场？现在一个季度销售8个亿，每个季度增长这么点，现在市值已经3000亿美金了，你对他估值是多少？难道1万亿？现在万亿的公司一共5家，全世界都能看到他们的产品，你见过PLTR的产品吗？想想这些再做多吧。","html":"对标微软，你是在搞笑吗？他靠的是什么在对标？微软、google哪些在AI方面没有基础架构没有研究？一直在吹自己AI方向多强，你听过PLTR有出过什么前沿算法的研究吗？Goolge18年就架构了 Transformer模型，现在主流方向都在用这个，Deepseek用蒸馏模型，他提出什么模型了？比别人好了吗？销售方面政府订单一半，说明没有市场竞争能力，靠的都是政府关系，你见过国内哪家公司靠政府关系能做大的？而且这个情况在美国，你觉得他能吃下多少市场？现在一个季度销售8个亿，每个季度增长这么点，现在市值已经3000亿美金了，你对他估值是多少？难道1万亿？现在万亿的公司一共5家，全世界都能看到他们的产品，你见过PLTR的产品吗？想想这些再做多吧。"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":551774603573024,"gmtCreate":1775745233789,"gmtModify":1775745236051,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> 主要微软亚马逊谷歌都宣布介入工业ai领域，引发资金厌恶风险，尽管替代pltr的逻辑并不一定成立。","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a> 主要微软亚马逊谷歌都宣布介入工业ai领域，引发资金厌恶风险，尽管替代pltr的逻辑并不一定成立。","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ 主要微软亚马逊谷歌都宣布介入工业ai领域，引发资金厌恶风险，尽管替代pltr的逻辑并不一定成立。","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/551774603573024","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":502945250431784,"gmtCreate":1763817445622,"gmtModify":1763875802269,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 感谢英伟达pltr和礼来共同促使我三年一个月达成五百倍收益","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LLY\">$礼来(LLY)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a> 感谢英伟达pltr和礼来共同促使我三年一个月达成五百倍收益","text":"$礼来(LLY)$ $Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$ $英伟达(NVDA)$ 感谢英伟达pltr和礼来共同促使我三年一个月达成五百倍收益","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad0936828ff47f9ec7f671129f676c2d","width":"957","height":"216"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":22,"commentSize":18,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/502945250431784","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":11040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3575453506994802","authorId":"3575453506994802","name":"老鹰飞翔","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3033df8d5693e4a9045f973d88b65f87","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3575453506994802","idStr":"3575453506994802"},"content":"恭喜恭喜🎉🎉🎉 沾沾大佬的喜气！","text":"恭喜恭喜🎉🎉🎉 沾沾大佬的喜气！","html":"恭喜恭喜🎉🎉🎉 沾沾大佬的喜气！"},{"author":{"id":"3515065343866850","authorId":"3515065343866850","name":"尖沙咀龍哥","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b179506c14a825d353bcd9e99387a7a","crmLevel":8,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3515065343866850","idStr":"3515065343866850"},"content":"主要靠期权吗","text":"主要靠期权吗","html":"主要靠期权吗"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":267210360516872,"gmtCreate":1706261374372,"gmtModify":1706447402020,"author":{"id":"3546249304196282","authorId":"3546249304196282","name":"火火兔爸","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1914631c23e50a7645217a36cc9d9598","crmLevel":9,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3546249304196282","idStr":"3546249304196282"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"晒晒收益，只做正股不搞期权<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","listText":"晒晒收益，只做正股不搞期权<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NVDA\">$英伟达(NVDA)$&nbsp;</a>&nbsp;","text":"晒晒收益，只做正股不搞期权$英伟达(NVDA)$","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dcd3d6f79ff48eb7a95ac6fd27ace1cc","width":"998","height":"1163"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":17,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/267210360516872","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":6820,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3456140950403382","authorId":"3456140950403382","name":"风_99","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5e5b1938caf163c456484718eec269de","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":1,"authorIdStr":"3456140950403382","idStr":"3456140950403382"},"content":"你这业绩牛逼，经过正股考验后，完全可以用小部分资金再上期权，创造辉煌了","text":"你这业绩牛逼，经过正股考验后，完全可以用小部分资金再上期权，创造辉煌了","html":"你这业绩牛逼，经过正股考验后，完全可以用小部分资金再上期权，创造辉煌了"},{"author":{"id":"3478594197398735","authorId":"3478594197398735","name":"诚信是牛市","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/56881f8bca5ac358a9f54c7d9d218dcd","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"3478594197398735","idStr":"3478594197398735"},"content":"关键是本金多少啊","text":"关键是本金多少啊","html":"关键是本金多少啊"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}