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2主题

0勋章

2021-06-15

Great! Pls comment on my post

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2021-11-23

$The Beachbody Company(BODY)$ Not going to catch the falling knife :(This company has potential but did not fullfill it

2021-10-27

Good sia

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2021-10-06

Umm

Microsoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出 Windows 11</blockquote>

2021-10-05

Indeed

A decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年过去了，乔布斯仍在为苹果铺路</blockquote>

2021-10-04

What

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2021-10-02

Wut

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2021-09-25

Good

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2021-09-25

Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams

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2021-09-24

Can throw lightning away

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2021-09-23

Automation to replace Humans

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2021-09-22

Like

Sens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>麦康奈尔先生，谢尔比提供短期政府。没有债务上限的拨款法案</blockquote>

2021-09-21

No good

Will the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？看这个号码。</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Okay

@何安迪:比特币最危险的实验开启，繁荣还是失败？

2021-09-07

Author must have shorted it!

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2021-09-02

All green

Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Noted

Here's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是 Support.com 股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote>

2021-08-21

Oh no

Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>

2021-08-20

Doubt

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2021-08-19

If you dare

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2021-08-17

Agree

3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>

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Pls comment on my post","listText":"Great! Pls comment on my post","text":"Great! Pls comment on my post","images":[],"top":2,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187191054","repostId":"1181891821","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4083,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":875703685,"gmtCreate":1637682423288,"gmtModify":1637682423412,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BODY\">$The Beachbody Company(BODY)$</a> Not going to catch the falling knife :(This company has potential but did not fullfill it","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BODY\">$The Beachbody Company(BODY)$</a> Not going to catch the falling knife :(This company has potential but did not fullfill it","text":"$The Beachbody Company(BODY)$ Not going to catch the falling knife :(This company has potential but did not fullfill it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875703685","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":855182704,"gmtCreate":1635343629551,"gmtModify":1635344531015,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good sia","listText":"Good sia","text":"Good sia","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/855182704","repostId":"1157044987","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2903,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829853381,"gmtCreate":1633489854068,"gmtModify":1633489854344,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Umm","listText":"Umm","text":"Umm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829853381","repostId":"1168799213","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1168799213","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633487415,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1168799213?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-06 10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Microsoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出 Windows 11</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1168799213","media":"CNN Business","summary":"(CNN Business) - Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not every","content":"<p><div> (CNN Business) - Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away. Starting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（CNN Business）-微软正在推出六年来的首次重大Windows更新。但不是每个人都能马上得到它。从周二开始，Windows 11将免费提供……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Microsoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出 Windows 11</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicrosoft begins rollout of Windows 11<blockquote>微软开始推出 Windows 11</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-06 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> (CNN Business) - Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away. Starting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free ...</p><p><blockquote><div>（CNN Business）-微软正在推出六年来的首次重大Windows更新。但不是每个人都能马上得到它。从周二开始，Windows 11将免费提供……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MSFT":"微软"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/10/05/tech/windows-11-download/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1168799213","content_text":"(CNN Business) - Microsoft is rolling out its first major Windows update in six years. But not everyone will be able to get it right away.\nStarting Tuesday, Windows 11 will be available as a free download to existing Windows users depending on the hardware and age of their PC device.Microsoft (MSFT) previously said its \"phased and measured\" approach to introducing the new operating system will begin with Windows 10 PCs and PCs that come preloaded with Windows. Users will be notified when they're eligible for the update from now through mid-2022.\nWhile the update isn't quite the substantial change from Windows 8 to Windows 10 that came out in 2015, Windows 11 features a handful of notable design changes, including a new interface that is intended to bring \"a sense of calm and ease.\" A new Start menu shows recently opened files, regardless of which device was used. And a new personalized Widgets feed, powered by artificial intelligence, promises to provide a faster way to access apps.\nOther updates are geared towardproviding more flexibility, such as more multitasking tools, support for Android mobile apps in its new app store, and an integration with Microsoft Teams, its workplace chat and videoconferencing app.\nUnlike Apple (APLE), which unveils a new operating system for its Mac computers each year,Microsoft (MSFT) takes a staggered approach.\nGeoff Blaber, CEO of market research firm CCS Insight, said the latest update won't be \"revolutionary,\" but he believes it'll do enough to please its massive user base. (Windows 10 runs on about 1.3 billion devices worldwide, according to Microsoft.)\n\"Windows 11 is an iterative release that pinpoints where Windows needs greater ambition rather than introducing the sweeping changes seen with its predecessor,\" he said. \"Microsoft is making adjustments to areas that have potential to move the needle on user experience, engagement and the ever-expanding reach of Office 365 apps.\"\nIt could also increase hardware sales as it gets closer to the end of Windows 10 support in 2025.\nAt a livestreamed media event last month, Microsoft also showed off updates to its Surface line that'll ship with Windows 11. Its flagship announcement was a $1,599 Surface Laptop Studio that can change from laptop mode to a position better for streaming TV shows and another for drawing or sketching. The device, which took nearly five years to develop, was designed specifically alongside the development of Windows 11.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3782,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829097275,"gmtCreate":1633441603021,"gmtModify":1633441603287,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Indeed","listText":"Indeed","text":"Indeed","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829097275","repostId":"1116662375","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1116662375","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1633441259,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1116662375?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-05 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年过去了，乔布斯仍在为苹果铺路</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116662375","media":"macworld","summary":"Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jo","content":"<p>Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.</p><p><blockquote>时间向前滚动，过去退去，一切都开始褪色，不是吗？十年前，史蒂夫-乔布斯去世了，当时我不知道人们会如何缅怀他。在这期间的几年里，他最著名的产品——苹果本身——已经上升到了难以想象的权力和影响力水平。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actually<i>could</i>go on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离职后，苹果取得了如此大的进步，但这丝毫没有降低他的地位。可以相对容易地说，蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的苹果的成功表明，尽管在 2011 年末每个人都感到担忧，但该公司实际上<i>可以</i>继续没有工作掌舵。但并非所有人都这么想。相反，乔布斯被认为是让苹果走上了今天的道路。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years before</p><p><blockquote>10年前</blockquote></p><p> On October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the&nbsp;iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an&nbsp;entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin&nbsp;expanding into retail.</p><p><blockquote>2001年10月5日，也就是乔布斯去世的10年前，苹果正忙于从一个巨大的洞里挖掘自己。1996 年底，乔布斯收购了 NeXT 公司，重返公司，1997 年年中掌权，四年后，他的巨大成就主要是苹果还没有倒闭。多亏了iMac G3，该公司有了一条财务生命线，使其能够翻新Mac产品线的其余部分，推出全新的Mac，并开始向零售业扩张。</blockquote></p><p> This is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an&nbsp;invisible era&nbsp;where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个与大多数人记忆中截然不同的苹果，这是一个看不见的时代，乔布斯疯狂地把想法扔到墙上，看看什么会坚持下去。（一个服务器!Acube形状的Power Mac!）这个苹果不怕失败。它不怕显得愚蠢。事实上，它完全接受了这样一个事实，即它需要不断尝试，并愿意失败，以便找到可能成功的地方。</blockquote></p><p> One of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个疯狂的想法最终拯救了公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cbc070a8abecbfeba42331c92a783\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果已经挣扎了很多年。然后iPod出现了，开始了一连串的成功，造就了今天的公司。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ten years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.</p><p><blockquote>在史蒂夫-乔布斯去世前十年，他和他的团队正在对几周后推出的新产品进行最后的润色。这是另一个仍然值得尝试的奇怪想法——一个如此小巧的数字音乐播放器，你可以在口袋里携带一千首歌曲。</blockquote></p><p> The iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,<i>would</i>never consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.</p><p><blockquote>iMac G3 的销售成功可能给了苹果一条生命线，但正是 iPod（本月晚些时候将迎来 20 岁生日）向无数从未接触过 iPod、<i>将会</i>永远不要考虑买苹果电脑。再加上不断扩大的苹果零售帝国--另一个可能以灾难告终的想法--iPod 让人们开始关注苹果这个品牌，让他们也开始考虑 Mac--苹果的财富也随之增长。</blockquote></p><p> From there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那里开始，苹果走上了制造iPhone和iPad的道路，构建了驱动公司今天的核心三大产品。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years after</p><p><blockquote>10年后</blockquote></p><p> During Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.</p><p><blockquote>在乔布斯担任首席执行官的苹果最后一个财季，苹果交出了有史以来最好的财季。该公司创造了创纪录的 286 亿美元收入和创纪录的 73.1 亿美元利润。它售出了价值133亿美元的iPhone、价值60亿美元的iPad和价值51亿美元的Mac电脑。</blockquote></p><p> Ten years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离开苹果十年后，结果稍好一些。收入为 814 亿美元，是十年前季度的 2.8 倍。利润为 217 亿美元，几乎是十年前总额的三倍。苹果售出了价值 395 亿美元的 iPhone（增长近 3 倍）、价值 73 亿美元的 iPad（增长 22%）和价值 82 亿美元的 Mac（增长 61%）。</blockquote></p><p> Under Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.</p><p><blockquote>在蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的管理下，苹果平均每个季度的收入增加了两倍。它在可穿戴产品（如苹果手表和AirPods）和服务方面增长了两大新收入来源。蒂姆·库克值得称赞吗？鉴于如此多的专家确信，如果没有乔布斯掌舵，苹果将彻底陷入困境，我当然这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff011b19b561e07a75dc6408fdd7251\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>乔布斯去世后，苹果取得了巨大的成功。蒂姆·库克应该得到所有的荣誉，就像乔布斯被视为一手策划这一切一样。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>正如苹果的现代企业文化真正归功于乔布斯在 20 世纪 90 年代重返公司时建立的文化一样，库克本人也被乔布斯选为接班人。我认为可以公平地说，乔布斯可能看到了苹果的发展轨迹，并信任库克带领公司实现增长，同时继续专注于开发新产品和迭代现有产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然库克带领苹果渡过难关值得称赞，但乔布斯理所当然地被视为幕后策划者。乔布斯去世后的十年里，苹果取得了巨大成功，这只会增加他的遗产。</blockquote></p><p> But lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.</p><p><blockquote>但是我们不要忘记，没有什么是永恒的。乔布斯可能不会想到的苹果电视+服务最近首播了一部根据艾萨克-阿西莫夫（Isaac Asimov）的《基金会》系列丛书改编的电视剧。从根本上说，《基础》讲述的是一个人对未来的愿景--以及一个人的愿景是如何无法与历史的风暴相媲美的。</blockquote></p><p> Time does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?</p><p><blockquote>时间确实在前进，我们对事件的看法也在不断变化。亲眼目睹的事件变成了重新讲述的老故事，受制于我们记忆的限制和二手故事的不完美。我的女儿是在iPod发布后不久出生的，但在它发货之前。她马上就要20岁了。时间去哪儿了？</blockquote></p><p> “Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>“乔布斯去世时，我写道：”我们这些有幸变老变态的人会说，我们看到那个人站在舞台上，身后是巨大的苹果标志，并推出了一款标志性的、改变世界的新产品。“一百年后，或许他会沦为一幅漫画。”也许是这样。但我们都应该很幸运。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1633441374938","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年过去了，乔布斯仍在为苹果铺路</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA decade later, Steve Jobs is still paving Apple’s path to success<blockquote>十年过去了，乔布斯仍在为苹果铺路</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">macworld</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-10-05 21:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.</p><p><blockquote>时间向前滚动，过去退去，一切都开始褪色，不是吗？十年前，史蒂夫-乔布斯去世了，当时我不知道人们会如何缅怀他。在这期间的几年里，他最著名的产品——苹果本身——已经上升到了难以想象的权力和影响力水平。</blockquote></p><p> The fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actually<i>could</i>go on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离职后，苹果取得了如此大的进步，但这丝毫没有降低他的地位。可以相对容易地说，蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的苹果的成功表明，尽管在 2011 年末每个人都感到担忧，但该公司实际上<i>可以</i>继续没有工作掌舵。但并非所有人都这么想。相反，乔布斯被认为是让苹果走上了今天的道路。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years before</p><p><blockquote>10年前</blockquote></p><p> On October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the&nbsp;iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an&nbsp;entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin&nbsp;expanding into retail.</p><p><blockquote>2001年10月5日，也就是乔布斯去世的10年前，苹果正忙于从一个巨大的洞里挖掘自己。1996 年底，乔布斯收购了 NeXT 公司，重返公司，1997 年年中掌权，四年后，他的巨大成就主要是苹果还没有倒闭。多亏了iMac G3，该公司有了一条财务生命线，使其能够翻新Mac产品线的其余部分，推出全新的Mac，并开始向零售业扩张。</blockquote></p><p> This is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an&nbsp;invisible era&nbsp;where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个与大多数人记忆中截然不同的苹果，这是一个看不见的时代，乔布斯疯狂地把想法扔到墙上，看看什么会坚持下去。（一个服务器!Acube形状的Power Mac!）这个苹果不怕失败。它不怕显得愚蠢。事实上，它完全接受了这样一个事实，即它需要不断尝试，并愿意失败，以便找到可能成功的地方。</blockquote></p><p> One of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个疯狂的想法最终拯救了公司。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/272cbc070a8abecbfeba42331c92a783\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>苹果已经挣扎了很多年。然后iPod出现了，开始了一连串的成功，造就了今天的公司。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Ten years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.</p><p><blockquote>在史蒂夫-乔布斯去世前十年，他和他的团队正在对几周后推出的新产品进行最后的润色。这是另一个仍然值得尝试的奇怪想法——一个如此小巧的数字音乐播放器，你可以在口袋里携带一千首歌曲。</blockquote></p><p> The iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,<i>would</i>never consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.</p><p><blockquote>iMac G3 的销售成功可能给了苹果一条生命线，但正是 iPod（本月晚些时候将迎来 20 岁生日）向无数从未接触过 iPod、<i>将会</i>永远不要考虑买苹果电脑。再加上不断扩大的苹果零售帝国--另一个可能以灾难告终的想法--iPod 让人们开始关注苹果这个品牌，让他们也开始考虑 Mac--苹果的财富也随之增长。</blockquote></p><p> From there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那里开始，苹果走上了制造iPhone和iPad的道路，构建了驱动公司今天的核心三大产品。</blockquote></p><p> The 10 years after</p><p><blockquote>10年后</blockquote></p><p> During Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.</p><p><blockquote>在乔布斯担任首席执行官的苹果最后一个财季，苹果交出了有史以来最好的财季。该公司创造了创纪录的 286 亿美元收入和创纪录的 73.1 亿美元利润。它售出了价值133亿美元的iPhone、价值60亿美元的iPad和价值51亿美元的Mac电脑。</blockquote></p><p> Ten years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).</p><p><blockquote>乔布斯离开苹果十年后，结果稍好一些。收入为 814 亿美元，是十年前季度的 2.8 倍。利润为 217 亿美元，几乎是十年前总额的三倍。苹果售出了价值 395 亿美元的 iPhone（增长近 3 倍）、价值 73 亿美元的 iPad（增长 22%）和价值 82 亿美元的 Mac（增长 61%）。</blockquote></p><p> Under Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.</p><p><blockquote>在蒂姆-库克（Tim Cook）的管理下，苹果平均每个季度的收入增加了两倍。它在可穿戴产品（如苹果手表和AirPods）和服务方面增长了两大新收入来源。蒂姆·库克值得称赞吗？鉴于如此多的专家确信，如果没有乔布斯掌舵，苹果将彻底陷入困境，我当然这么认为。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff011b19b561e07a75dc6408fdd7251\" tg-width=\"1200\" tg-height=\"800\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Apple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>乔布斯去世后，苹果取得了巨大的成功。蒂姆·库克应该得到所有的荣誉，就像乔布斯被视为一手策划这一切一样。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Just as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.</p><p><blockquote>正如苹果的现代企业文化真正归功于乔布斯在 20 世纪 90 年代重返公司时建立的文化一样，库克本人也被乔布斯选为接班人。我认为可以公平地说，乔布斯可能看到了苹果的发展轨迹，并信任库克带领公司实现增长，同时继续专注于开发新产品和迭代现有产品。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> So while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.</p><p><blockquote>因此，虽然库克带领苹果渡过难关值得称赞，但乔布斯理所当然地被视为幕后策划者。乔布斯去世后的十年里，苹果取得了巨大成功，这只会增加他的遗产。</blockquote></p><p> But lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.</p><p><blockquote>但是我们不要忘记，没有什么是永恒的。乔布斯可能不会想到的苹果电视+服务最近首播了一部根据艾萨克-阿西莫夫（Isaac Asimov）的《基金会》系列丛书改编的电视剧。从根本上说，《基础》讲述的是一个人对未来的愿景--以及一个人的愿景是如何无法与历史的风暴相媲美的。</blockquote></p><p> Time does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?</p><p><blockquote>时间确实在前进，我们对事件的看法也在不断变化。亲眼目睹的事件变成了重新讲述的老故事，受制于我们记忆的限制和二手故事的不完美。我的女儿是在iPod发布后不久出生的，但在它发货之前。她马上就要20岁了。时间去哪儿了？</blockquote></p><p> “Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.</p><p><blockquote>“乔布斯去世时，我写道：”我们这些有幸变老变态的人会说，我们看到那个人站在舞台上，身后是巨大的苹果标志，并推出了一款标志性的、改变世界的新产品。“一百年后，或许他会沦为一幅漫画。”也许是这样。但我们都应该很幸运。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.macworld.com/article/540956/steve-jobs-apple-path-to-success.html\">macworld</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.macworld.com/article/540956/steve-jobs-apple-path-to-success.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116662375","content_text":"Time rolls forward, the past recedes, and it all starts to fade, doesn’t it? Ten years ago, Steve Jobs died, and at the time Ipondered how he’d be remembered. In the intervening years, his most notable product–Apple itself–has risen to unimaginable levels of power and influence.\nThe fact that so much of Apple’s growth has happened since Jobs’s departure hasn’t reduced him at all. It would be relatively easy to argue that the success of Tim Cook’s Apple suggests that, despite everyone’s concern in the late days of 2011, the company actuallycouldgo on without Jobs at the helm. But that’s not what anyone thinks. Instead, Jobs is credited for putting Apple on the path that led to it becoming what it is today.\nThe 10 years before\nOn October 5, 2001, 10 years before Jobs passed away, Apple is busy digging itself out of an enormous hole. Jobs returned to the company with the purchase of NeXT in late 1996, assumed the reins of power in mid-1997, and four years later his big accomplishment is mostly that Apple hasn’t gone out of business yet. Thanks to the iMac G3, the company had a financial lifeline that has allowed it to renovate the rest of the Mac product line, get an entirely new Mac OSout the door, and begin expanding into retail.\nThis is a very different Apple than the one that most people remember, an invisible era where Jobs was furiously throwing ideas at the wall to see what would stick. (A server! Acube-shaped Power Mac!) This Apple was not afraid of failure. It wasn’t afraid of looking foolish. It was, in fact, completely embracing the fact that it would need to keep trying and be willing to fail in order to find where it might succeed.\nOne of those wild ideas ended up saving the company.\nApple had been struggling for years. Then the iPod came along to start a string of successes that made the company what it is today.\nTen years before Steve Jobs died, he and his team were putting the finishing touches on the new product they’d be introducing a couple of weeks later. It was another weird idea that was still worth trying–a digital music player so compact that you could carry a thousand songs with you in your pocket.\nThe iMac G3’s sales success might have given Apple a lifeline, but it was the iPod (which has its 20th birthday later this month) that introduced Apple’s brand to countless people who had never,wouldnever consider buying a Mac. And combined with the expanding Apple retail empire–another idea that might have ended in disaster, but didn’t–the iPod turned people on to Apple as a brand, making them consider the Mac as well–and Apple’s fortunes grew.\nFrom there, of course, Apple was on the path to build the iPhone and the iPad, constructing the core trio of products that drive the company even today.\nThe 10 years after\nDuring Apple’sfinal financial quarter with Jobs as CEO, Apple delivered its best financial quarter ever. The company generated a record $28.6 billion in revenue and a record $7.31 billion in profit. It sold $13.3 billion worth of iPhones, $6 billion worth of iPads, and $5.1 billion worth of Macs.\nTen years after Jobs left Apple,the resultswere a bit better. Revenue was $81.4 billion, 2.8 times more than the decade-ago quarter. Profit was $21.7 billion, nearly three times the decade-ago total. Apple sold $39.5 billion worth of iPhones (up nearly 3 times), $7.3 billion worth of iPads (up 22 percent), and $8.2 billion worth of Macs (up 61 percent).\nUnder Tim Cook’s stewardship, Apple has tripled what it makes in an average quarter. It has grown two major new sources of revenue in wearable products (such as Apple Watch and AirPods) and services. Does Tim Cook deserve credit for this? Given how so many experts were convinced that Apple would be utterly adrift without Steve Jobs at the helm, I certainly think so.\nApple has experienced tremendous success since Steve Jobs’ death. Tim Cook deserves all the credit, just as Jobs is viewed as the one who set it all up.\nJust as Apple’s modern corporate culture really owes itself to what Jobs established when he returned to the company in the 1990s, Cook himself was chosen by Jobs as his successor. I think it’s fair to say that Jobs probably saw the trajectory Apple was on and trusted Cook to navigate the company through that growth while also continuing to focus on developing new products and iterating on existing ones.\nSo while Cook deserves credit for steering Apple through these waters, Jobs is rightfully viewed as the person who set it all up. The enormous success of Apple in the decade since Jobs died only adds to his legacy.\nBut lest we forget, nothing is forever. Apple TV+, a service that Jobs probably wouldn’t have conceived of himself, recently premiered a series based on Isaac Asimov’s “Foundation” book series. “Foundation” is, fundamentally, about one man’s vision of the future–and how one man’s vision is no match for the sweep of history.\nTime does roll forward, and our perceptions of events continue to shift. Events witnessed in person become old stories retold, subject to the limits of our memories and the imperfection of second-hand storytelling. My daughter was born just after the iPod was announced, but before it shipped. She’s about to turn 20. Where does the time go?\n“Those of us who are lucky enough to grow old and rickety (in a way that, cruelly, Steven Paul Jobs was never allowed to) will say that we saw that man stand upon a stage with a giant Apple logo behind him and introduce a new iconic, world-changing product,”I wrote when Jobs died. “In a hundred years, perhaps he will have been reduced to a caricature.” Maybe so. But we should all be so lucky.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820102536,"gmtCreate":1633356733852,"gmtModify":1633356734172,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What","listText":"What","text":"What","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820102536","repostId":"1195244845","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":864447944,"gmtCreate":1633142636645,"gmtModify":1633142636946,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wut","listText":"Wut","text":"Wut","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/864447944","repostId":"2172968387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3839,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868007973,"gmtCreate":1632545157292,"gmtModify":1632799201614,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868007973","repostId":"1149730497","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":868004574,"gmtCreate":1632545111798,"gmtModify":1632799202107,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","listText":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","text":"Either goes well or goes badNot sure what moat Zoom have over other software says WebEx or Teams","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/868004574","repostId":"1117076176","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2749,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":861915708,"gmtCreate":1632448232704,"gmtModify":1632723202209,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can throw lightning away","listText":"Can throw lightning away","text":"Can throw lightning away","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/861915708","repostId":"2169042660","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":863315114,"gmtCreate":1632358288438,"gmtModify":1632800967755,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Automation to replace Humans","listText":"Automation to replace Humans","text":"Automation to replace Humans","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/863315114","repostId":"2169652287","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3733,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":869435978,"gmtCreate":1632315237494,"gmtModify":1632801321232,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like","listText":"Like","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/869435978","repostId":"1182163370","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182163370","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632313786,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1182163370?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-22 20:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>麦康奈尔先生，谢尔比提供短期政府。没有债务上限的拨款法案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182163370","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered ","content":"<p>Senate&nbsp;Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby&nbsp;(R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure&nbsp;that also suspends thedebt limit&nbsp;until after the 2022 election.</p><p><blockquote>参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（肯塔基州共和党人）和参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于 9 月 21 日提出了一项竞争性的短期政府融资法案，就在众议院民主党人通过了一项权宜之计措施，该措施也暂停了债务上限直至 2022 年大选之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bill&nbsp;from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;does not include a debt ceiling suspension,</b>as&nbsp;Republicans have urged&nbsp;Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation,&nbsp;a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.</p><p><blockquote><b>麦康奈尔和谢尔比的法案不包括暂停债务上限，</b>共和党人敦促多数党民主党人通过和解自行提高28.4万亿美元的债务上限，和解是一项特殊的议会程序，将加快参议院通过预算措施。</blockquote></p><p> <i>[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[ZH：该法案的出台可能会增加参议院不达成协议的可能性，目前市场倾向于同意，因为债务上限焦虑根本没有缓解]</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adde3642e318f1934b298f8bbca83d08\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Through&nbsp;reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate.&nbsp;But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过和解，民主党人将能够绕过60票批准立法的要求，转而依靠参议院的简单多数。但民主党人迄今为止一直抵制这样做，称提高债务上限的投票应该是两党的投票。</b></blockquote></p><p>   “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby&nbsp;said in a statement.  <i>Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote>“我很高兴与麦康奈尔领导人一起提出一揽子计划，该计划将延长政府资金，提供急需的救灾，并向阿富汗提供有针对性的援助。共和党人和民主党人已经进行了数周的两党两院谈判，以保持政府开放并提供紧急援助。谢尔比在一份声明中说：”这项法案反映了这些紧迫的优先事项。<i>2021 年 8 月 10 日，参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党）走过华盛顿美国国会大厦的地下室。（塞缪尔·科勒姆/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,</b></i>” he added.  Similar to the&nbsp;Democrats’ bill, the legislation from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“重要的是，我们的立法包括为铁穹项目提供资金，履行了我们对一个历史性的重要盟友的承诺，并删除了民主党在债务上限问题上考虑不周的措辞。两党议员都可以支持这项措施，我敦促他们尽快支持、</b></i>”他补充道。与民主党的法案类似，麦康奈尔和谢尔比的立法也将使政府在12月3日之前获得资金。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes&nbsp;resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome,&nbsp;Israel’s defense system.&nbsp;The Republicans senators said the funding for the&nbsp;Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于救灾和援助阿富汗盟友的资源，以及为以色列的防御系统“铁穹”提供资金。共和党参议员表示，为“铁穹”提供的资金将 “增强以色列的防御能力，抵御哈马斯的袭击”。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,&nbsp;House Democrats removed&nbsp;$1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards&nbsp;Palestinians.</p><p><blockquote>本周二，众议院民主党人在指责以色列军方侵犯人权及其对待巴勒斯坦人的方式的情况下，从他们的法案中删除了为穹顶提供的 10 亿美元资金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>An Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2012 年 11 月 15 日，以色列比尔谢巴市附近的铁穹反导弹发射站发射导弹，一名以色列士兵躺在地上。（伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The latest GOP legislation comes after&nbsp;The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to&nbsp;pass a bill&nbsp;that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it&nbsp;through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共和党最新立法是在众议院周二晚间投票通过一项法案之后出台的，该法案将避免政府关门或美国违约，在 12 月 3 日之前为其提供资金，并在 2022 年 12 月 16 日之前暂停债务限额。</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>民主党占多数的众议院以220票对211票的投票结果符合党派路线。然而，该法案现在在参议院面临着一个严峻的障碍，共和党人表示他们将发起阻挠议事。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to&nbsp;reporters at a press conference on Tuesday,&nbsp;McConnell reiterated that&nbsp;Republicans were willing to support&nbsp;a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as&nbsp;assistance for Louisiana,&nbsp;which has been left debilitated by&nbsp;hurricane Ida in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>麦康奈尔在周二的新闻发布会上对记者说，共和党人愿意支持短期政府拨款法案，如果该法案包括对铁穹的资金支持，以及对路易斯安那州的援助，路易斯安那州最近几周因飓风艾达而被削弱。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.    “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.  Congress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default.&nbsp;The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>“据《国会山报》报道，麦康奈尔说：”我们准备支持一项持续的决议，向路易斯安那州提供援助，并提供额外资金来补充铁穹。“他补充说：”我们不准备解除民主党总统、民主党众议院、民主党参议院解决债务上限问题的执政义务。国会必须在9月30日之前通过一项拨款计划，以避免政府关门或美国违约。额外的时间将允许立法者就来年的预算进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前的债务上限已经被突破，债务高达28.78万亿美元。财政部的 “非常措施 ”暂时为其提供资金，预计该措施将于 10 月份用尽。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>麦康奈尔先生，谢尔比提供短期政府。没有债务上限的拨款法案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSens McConnell, Shelby Offer Short-Term Govt. Funding Bill Without Debt Ceiling<blockquote>麦康奈尔先生，谢尔比提供短期政府。没有债务上限的拨款法案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-22 20:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Senate&nbsp;Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby&nbsp;(R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure&nbsp;that also suspends thedebt limit&nbsp;until after the 2022 election.</p><p><blockquote>参议院少数党领袖米奇·麦康奈尔（肯塔基州共和党人）和参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党人）于 9 月 21 日提出了一项竞争性的短期政府融资法案，就在众议院民主党人通过了一项权宜之计措施，该措施也暂停了债务上限直至 2022 年大选之后。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bill&nbsp;from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;does not include a debt ceiling suspension,</b>as&nbsp;Republicans have urged&nbsp;Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation,&nbsp;a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.</p><p><blockquote><b>麦康奈尔和谢尔比的法案不包括暂停债务上限，</b>共和党人敦促多数党民主党人通过和解自行提高28.4万亿美元的债务上限，和解是一项特殊的议会程序，将加快参议院通过预算措施。</blockquote></p><p> <i>[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]</i></p><p><blockquote><i>[ZH：该法案的出台可能会增加参议院不达成协议的可能性，目前市场倾向于同意，因为债务上限焦虑根本没有缓解]</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adde3642e318f1934b298f8bbca83d08\" tg-width=\"1024\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><b>Through&nbsp;reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate.&nbsp;But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通过和解，民主党人将能够绕过60票批准立法的要求，转而依靠参议院的简单多数。但民主党人迄今为止一直抵制这样做，称提高债务上限的投票应该是两党的投票。</b></blockquote></p><p>   “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby&nbsp;said in a statement.  <i>Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote>“我很高兴与麦康奈尔领导人一起提出一揽子计划，该计划将延长政府资金，提供急需的救灾，并向阿富汗提供有针对性的援助。共和党人和民主党人已经进行了数周的两党两院谈判，以保持政府开放并提供紧急援助。谢尔比在一份声明中说：”这项法案反映了这些紧迫的优先事项。<i>2021 年 8 月 10 日，参议员理查德·谢尔比（阿拉巴马州共和党）走过华盛顿美国国会大厦的地下室。（塞缪尔·科勒姆/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p>   <i><b>“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,</b></i>” he added.  Similar to the&nbsp;Democrats’ bill, the legislation from&nbsp;McConnell and&nbsp;Shelby&nbsp;would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.</p><p><blockquote><i><b>“重要的是，我们的立法包括为铁穹项目提供资金，履行了我们对一个历史性的重要盟友的承诺，并删除了民主党在债务上限问题上考虑不周的措辞。两党议员都可以支持这项措施，我敦促他们尽快支持、</b></i>”他补充道。与民主党的法案类似，麦康奈尔和谢尔比的立法也将使政府在12月3日之前获得资金。</blockquote></p><p> It also includes&nbsp;resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome,&nbsp;Israel’s defense system.&nbsp;The Republicans senators said the funding for the&nbsp;Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”</p><p><blockquote>它还包括用于救灾和援助阿富汗盟友的资源，以及为以色列的防御系统“铁穹”提供资金。共和党参议员表示，为“铁穹”提供的资金将 “增强以色列的防御能力，抵御哈马斯的袭击”。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,&nbsp;House Democrats removed&nbsp;$1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards&nbsp;Palestinians.</p><p><blockquote>本周二，众议院民主党人在指责以色列军方侵犯人权及其对待巴勒斯坦人的方式的情况下，从他们的法案中删除了为穹顶提供的 10 亿美元资金。</blockquote></p><p> <i>An Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)</i></p><p><blockquote><i>2012 年 11 月 15 日，以色列比尔谢巴市附近的铁穹反导弹发射站发射导弹，一名以色列士兵躺在地上。（伊利亚·叶菲莫维奇/盖蒂图片社）</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>The latest GOP legislation comes after&nbsp;The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to&nbsp;pass a bill&nbsp;that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it&nbsp;through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共和党最新立法是在众议院周二晚间投票通过一项法案之后出台的，该法案将避免政府关门或美国违约，在 12 月 3 日之前为其提供资金，并在 2022 年 12 月 16 日之前暂停债务限额。</b></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>民主党占多数的众议院以220票对211票的投票结果符合党派路线。然而，该法案现在在参议院面临着一个严峻的障碍，共和党人表示他们将发起阻挠议事。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to&nbsp;reporters at a press conference on Tuesday,&nbsp;McConnell reiterated that&nbsp;Republicans were willing to support&nbsp;a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as&nbsp;assistance for Louisiana,&nbsp;which has been left debilitated by&nbsp;hurricane Ida in recent weeks.</p><p><blockquote>麦康奈尔在周二的新闻发布会上对记者说，共和党人愿意支持短期政府拨款法案，如果该法案包括对铁穹的资金支持，以及对路易斯安那州的援助，路易斯安那州最近几周因飓风艾达而被削弱。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.    “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.  Congress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default.&nbsp;The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>“据《国会山报》报道，麦康奈尔说：”我们准备支持一项持续的决议，向路易斯安那州提供援助，并提供额外资金来补充铁穹。“他补充说：”我们不准备解除民主党总统、民主党众议院、民主党参议院解决债务上限问题的执政义务。国会必须在9月30日之前通过一项拨款计划，以避免政府关门或美国违约。额外的时间将允许立法者就来年的预算进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>目前的债务上限已经被突破，债务高达28.78万亿美元。财政部的 “非常措施 ”暂时为其提供资金，预计该措施将于 10 月份用尽。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sens-mcconnell-shelby-offer-short-term-govt-funding-bill-without-debt-ceiling?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/sens-mcconnell-shelby-offer-short-term-govt-funding-bill-without-debt-ceiling?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182163370","content_text":"Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) on Sept. 21 offered a competing short-term government funding bill, just as House Democratspassed a stopgap measure that also suspends thedebt limit until after the 2022 election.\nThe bill from McConnell and Shelby does not include a debt ceiling suspension,as Republicans have urged Democrats—the majority party—to raise the $28.4 trillion debt ceiling themselves through reconciliation, a special parliamentary procedure that would expedite the passage of a budgetary measure through the Senate.\n[ZH: The introduction of the bill likely increases the probability of no Senate deal, and for now, the market is tending to agree as debt ceiling anxiety has not eased at all]\nThrough reconciliation, Democrats would be able to bypass the need for 60 votes to approve legislation, and instead rely on a simple majority in the Senate. But Democrats have resisted doing that so far, saying the vote to raise the debt limit should be a bipartisan one.\n\n “I am pleased to introduce a package with Leader McConnell that would extend government funding, provide much-needed disaster relief, and deliver targeted Afghan assistance. Republicans and Democrats have undergone bipartisan, bicameral negotiations for weeks to keep the government open and provide emergency aid. This bill reflects those urgent priorities,” Shelby said in a statement.\n\nSen. Richard Shelby (R-Ala.) walks through the basement of the U.S. Capitol Building in Washington, on Aug. 10, 2021. (Samuel Corum/Getty Images)\n\n“Importantly, our legislation includes funding for the Iron Dome, making good on our commitment to a historic and significant ally, and removes the Democrats’ ill-conceived language on the debt limit. Members on both sides of the aisle can support this measure, and I urge them to do so with haste,” he added.\n\nSimilar to the Democrats’ bill, the legislation from McConnell and Shelby would also keep the government funded through Dec. 3.\nIt also includes resources for disaster aid and assistance for Afghan allies, as well as funding for the Iron Dome, Israel’s defense system. The Republicans senators said the funding for the Iron Dome would “bolster Israel’s defense capacity and protect against Hamas attacks.”\nOn Tuesday, House Democrats removed $1 billion in funding for the Dome from their bill, amid accusations of human rights abuses within the Israel’s military and its treatment towards Palestinians.\nAn Israeli soldier lies on the ground as missiles are fired from an Iron Dome anti-missile station near the city of Beer Sheva, Israel on Nov. 15, 2012. (Ilia Yefimovich/Getty Images)\nThe latest GOP legislation comes after The House of Representatives voted late Tuesday to pass a bill that would avert a government shutdown or U.S. default, fund it through Dec. 3 and suspend the debt limit through Dec. 16, 2022.\nThe 220–211 vote in the Democrat-majority chamber was on party lines. However, the bill now faces a tough hurdle in the Senate, where Republicans have said they would mount a filibuster.\nSpeaking to reporters at a press conference on Tuesday, McConnell reiterated that Republicans were willing to support a short-term government funding bill if it included funding support for the Iron Dome, as well as assistance for Louisiana, which has been left debilitated by hurricane Ida in recent weeks.\n\n “We’re prepared to support a continuing resolution with assistance for Louisiana, with additional funds to replenish Iron Dome,” McConnell said, reported The Hill.\n\n\n “What we’re not prepared to do is to relieve the Democratic president, Democratic House, Democratic Senate from their governing obligation to address the debt ceiling,” he added.\n\nCongress must pass a funding plan by Sept. 30 to avert a government shutdown or U.S. default. The extra time will allow lawmakers to negotiate on the budget for the coming year.\nThe current debt ceiling has already been breached, with debt at $28.78 trillion. It is being temporarily financed through the Treasury Department’s “extraordinary measures,” which it expects will be exhausted by October.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":884,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":860516068,"gmtCreate":1632187868554,"gmtModify":1632802207208,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No good","listText":"No good","text":"No good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/860516068","repostId":"1134768038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1134768038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632185861,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1134768038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-21 08:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Will the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？看这个号码。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1134768038","media":"Barrons","summary":"Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling","content":"<p>Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.</p><p><blockquote>周一的抛售是否预示着华尔街一直呼吁的股市大幅调整？分析师正在寻找关键层面的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一经历了几个月来最糟糕的一天，暴跌 1.7%。随着美联储会议的临近以及国会预算和债务上限谈判的继续，投资者的不确定性也越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> Friday, the S&amp;P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&amp;P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>周五，标普500跌破50日移动平均线，这一技术指标显示投资者对后市失去信心。截至周一收盘，标普500比历史最高点低3.9%，为6月中旬以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the S&amp;P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，标准普尔又发出了一个麻烦的信号。该指数短暂跌破 4,320 点的 100 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>现在，问题是股市是会迅速反弹还是会出现回调，回调的定义是从近期高点下跌 10%。Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 正在关注 100 日移动平均线。他说，随着市场跌破这些关键水平，“你还没有需求购买波动性”。</blockquote></p><p> If the S&amp;P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>如果标普500大幅跌破 4230 点水平，且该指数中的大多数股票都处于亏损状态，请小心回调。这表明市场参与者仍然看到了股票价格中没有反映的巨大风险。</blockquote></p><p> “Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“在那个水平上，它会是一把落刀吗？1-2%？”卡佩莱里说。“波动环境延长的可能性更大。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the S&amp;P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，如果标普500出现上涨、小幅下跌或指数中大多数股票上涨的情况，则该指数可能会快速回调。这些情况中的任何一种都预示着乐观。</blockquote></p><p> “[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.</p><p><blockquote>“Cappelleri 说：”[4,320 点水平]可能会鼓励一些逢低买入，因为今年市场一直非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Other analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>其他分析师也在关注。“Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）周一写道：”我们非常重视今天的价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> Some good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说是个好消息：该指数周一收盘高于该关键水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Will the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？看这个号码。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWill the Stock Market Selloff Get Worse? Watch This Number.<blockquote>股市抛售会变得更糟吗？看这个号码。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-21 08:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.</p><p><blockquote>周一的抛售是否预示着华尔街一直呼吁的股市大幅调整？分析师正在寻找关键层面的线索。</blockquote></p><p> The S&amp;P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周一经历了几个月来最糟糕的一天，暴跌 1.7%。随着美联储会议的临近以及国会预算和债务上限谈判的继续，投资者的不确定性也越来越大。</blockquote></p><p> Friday, the S&amp;P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&amp;P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.</p><p><blockquote>周五，标普500跌破50日移动平均线，这一技术指标显示投资者对后市失去信心。截至周一收盘，标普500比历史最高点低3.9%，为6月中旬以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p> But on Monday, the S&amp;P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.</p><p><blockquote>但周一，标准普尔又发出了一个麻烦的信号。该指数短暂跌破 4,320 点的 100 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> Now, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>现在，问题是股市是会迅速反弹还是会出现回调，回调的定义是从近期高点下跌 10%。Instinet 首席市场技术员 Frank Cappelleri 正在关注 100 日移动平均线。他说，随着市场跌破这些关键水平，“你还没有需求购买波动性”。</blockquote></p><p> If the S&amp;P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.</p><p><blockquote>如果标普500大幅跌破 4230 点水平，且该指数中的大多数股票都处于亏损状态，请小心回调。这表明市场参与者仍然看到了股票价格中没有反映的巨大风险。</blockquote></p><p> “Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”</p><p><blockquote>“在那个水平上，它会是一把落刀吗？1-2%？”卡佩莱里说。“波动环境延长的可能性更大。”</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, the S&amp;P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，如果标普500出现上涨、小幅下跌或指数中大多数股票上涨的情况，则该指数可能会快速回调。这些情况中的任何一种都预示着乐观。</blockquote></p><p> “[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.</p><p><blockquote>“Cappelleri 说：”[4,320 点水平]可能会鼓励一些逢低买入，因为今年市场一直非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> Other analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.</p><p><blockquote>其他分析师也在关注。“Fairlead Strategies 创始人凯蒂-斯托克顿（Katie Stockton）周一写道：”我们非常重视今天的价格走势。</blockquote></p><p> Some good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.</p><p><blockquote>对投资者来说是个好消息：该指数周一收盘高于该关键水平。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-pullback-technical-levels-51632184898?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-pullback-technical-levels-51632184898?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1134768038","content_text":"Was Monday’s selloff indicative of the big stock market correction that Wall Street has been calling for? Analysts are watching a key level for clues.\nThe S&P 500 had its worst day in months Monday, tumbling 1.7%. Investors are also growing uncertain as the Federal Reserve’s meeting nears and negotiations over the Congressional budget and debt ceiling continue.\nFriday, the S&P 500 fell below its 50-day moving average, a technical indicator that shows investors are losing confidence in the market outlook. The S&P 500 is 3.9% below its all-time high as of Monday’s close, at its lowest level since mid-June.\nBut on Monday, the S&P flashed another troublesome signal. The index briefly fell below its 100-day moving average of 4,320.\nNow, the question is whether stocks will bounce back quickly or suffer a correction, defined as a 10% drop from a recent high. Frank Cappelleri, chief market technician at Instinet, is watching the 100-day moving average. As the market has fallen below these key levels, “You haven’t had the demand to buy [the] volatility,” he said.\nIf the S&P 500 falls significantly below the 4230 level with a majority of the stocks on the index in the red, watch out for a correction. That would indicate that market participants still see large risks that aren’t reflected in stock prices.\n“Is it going to be a falling knife at that level? 1-2% down moves?” Cappelleri said. “[The] chances of an elongated volatility environment are higher.”\nOn the other hand, the S&P 500 could be in for a quick pullback if it sees a move higher, a tiny move lower, or a drop where the majority of stocks on the index are rising. Any of those scenarios would signal optimism.\n“[The 4,320 level] can encourage some dip buying because the market has been so consistent this year,” said Cappelleri.\nOther analysts are watching, too. “We are placing a lot of weight on today’s price action,” wrote founder of Fairlead Strategies Katie Stockton, on Monday.\nSome good news for investors: The index closed Monday above that key level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1053,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880362075,"gmtCreate":1631021344997,"gmtModify":1631890587393,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Okay","listText":"Okay","text":"Okay","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880362075","repostId":"880945915","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":880945915,"gmtCreate":1631014610934,"gmtModify":1631019364417,"author":{"id":"3568081734360099","authorId":"3568081734360099","name":"何安迪","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/02c7061d02e3c72d7ce21a375ae80cb6","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3568081734360099","idStr":"3568081734360099"},"themes":[],"title":"比特币最危险的实验开启，繁荣还是失败？","htmlText":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","listText":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","text":"看到一条新闻，狗狗币的”老婆“Wifedoge，在过去7天价格翻了9倍。 一时间，我分辨不出，究竟是翻9倍对我的打击大，还是连狗狗币都脱单这个事儿对我的打击更大。 Wifedoge在今年7月推出，总供应量747千万亿枚，据它自己的推特账号称，其中5%的代币要留给马斯克。和Baby Doge（小狗狗币）同类，都是克隆狗狗币的加密货币，当然，暴涨暴跌也跟狗狗币基本如出一辙，8月底一天之内疯狂上涨3300%，然后市值又从232万美元狂泻到301406美元。 今天，比特币也有新闻。 比特币一项因对电力的过度浪费被人们诟病，过去5年，比特币挖矿消耗的电量已经增长了10倍。根据研究，比特币每年挖矿消耗的电力，相当于全球电力消费总量的0.5%，超过了芬兰550万人口使用的总电量，是谷歌全球业务用电量的7倍多，也大致相当于美国华盛顿州每年的用电量。 萨尔瓦多的总统表示，该国周一购买了400比特币，并且计划购买更多。总统布克尔表示，计划要求企业接受比特币来交换商品和服务，政府也接受比特币来支付税款。一来，这将吸引更多的人进入金融系统，使汇款更便宜，二来使用比特币作为法定货币，每年可以为萨尔瓦多人节省4亿美元的交易费用。 这件事，可以算得上是比特币最引人注目的考验，也是比特币首次作为法定货币。 萨尔瓦多是拉美地区最贫穷的国家之一，也因为内战被评为世界上最危险的地区之一，自2001年以来一直以美元作为官方货币，总人口约682万人，有超过200万的人口生活在国外，因此国家GDP的20%来自汇款，即从国外汇往国内的钱，每年汇回40多亿美元。 因为国家小，金融服务框架薄弱，国家希望通过比特币提升金融服务的水平，数字货币也可以让萨尔瓦多人避免寄钱回家的高昂费用。 但实际情况确是，国家连支持数字货币的基础设施都没有，大部分的人其实连比特币是什么都不清楚，更别说用比特币作为流通货币了。 不管怎样，无论是比特","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdda03bba2f7d44c008564f63b7336a2","width":"-1","height":"-1"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880945915","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":2,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880366259,"gmtCreate":1631021323971,"gmtModify":1631890587394,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Author must have shorted it!","listText":"Author must have shorted it!","text":"Author must have shorted it!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880366259","repostId":"1132739446","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":878,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812928970,"gmtCreate":1630547608790,"gmtModify":1631890587397,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"All green","listText":"All green","text":"All green","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812928970","repostId":"1105808841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105808841","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630547089,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105808841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 09:44","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105808841","media":"AFP","summary":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their ","content":"<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在本周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%或175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌 0.20% 或 7.20 点，至 3,559.90 点；中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数下跌 0.22% 或 5.32 点，至 2,412.57 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1605843958005","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Hong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHong Kong: Shares extend gains at open<blockquote>香港：股市开盘延续涨幅</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">AFP</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 09:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.</p><p><blockquote>【香港】香港股市周四早盘再次上涨，投资者在本周末美国关键就业数据公布前等待时机。</blockquote></p><p> The Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.</p><p><blockquote>恒生指数上涨0.67%或175.23点，至26,203.52点。</blockquote></p><p> The Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.</p><p><blockquote>上证综指下跌 0.20% 或 7.20 点，至 3,559.90 点；中国第二大交易所深圳综合指数下跌 0.22% 或 5.32 点，至 2,412.57 点。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3\">AFP</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HSI":"恒生指数"},"source_url":"https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/stocks/hong-kong-shares-extend-gains-at-open-3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105808841","content_text":"[HONG KONG] Hong Kong stocks began with another advance on Thursday morning as investors bide their time ahead of the release of key US jobs data at the end of the week.\nThe Hang Seng Index rose 0.67 per cent or 175.23 points to 26,203.52.\nThe Shanghai Composite dipped 0.20 per cent or 7.20 points to 3,559.90, while the Shenzhen Composite Index on China's second exchange fell 0.22 per cent or 5.32 points to 2,412.57.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HSI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":770,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816991787,"gmtCreate":1630459010949,"gmtModify":1631890587401,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816991787","repostId":"1192163327","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1192163327","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630458553,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1192163327?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 09:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是 Support.com 股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1192163327","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?\n\nKey Points\n\nSupport.com is the latest super-","content":"<p>  <b>Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?</b>  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票令人难以置信的反弹即将结束吗？</b><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Support.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.</li> </ul> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Support.com 是最新的超级热门模因股票，最近的回调并不一定表明其大幅上涨的日子已经结束。</li></ul><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b> slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">支持网</a></b>周二交易中暴跌两位数，收盘下跌约 13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股的回调必须放在上下文中。该公司最近吸引了 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 董事会和其他青睐模因股票的投资者的关注，尽管今天遭到抛售，但其股价在 2021 年的交易中仍飙升了约 1,310%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Is there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的核心技术支持客户服务和安全软件业务是否推动了令人难以置信的反弹？可能不会。Support 的收入微薄，过去三年销售额下降了近␠43%。</blockquote></p><p> Like&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.</p><p><blockquote>喜欢<b>游戏驿站</b>和<b>AMC院线控股</b>在此之前，该股因其较高的空头兴趣而吸引了投资者的关注。过去几年，散户投资者的新活动激增，这为大规模挤空铺平了道路，因为社交媒体的关注和新兴的大众情绪促使股票买家涌入遭受重创、失宠的公司追求爆炸性回报。</blockquote></p><p> Support's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>Support 的股东还计划就与私人持有的潜在合并进行投票<b>比特币</b>9 月 10 日的矿工 Greenidge Generation。随着空头挤压势头的持续以及加密货币挖矿的潜在推动，对于模因股票投资者来说，股票可能会继续成为猫薄荷。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> The company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的市值约为 7.59 亿美元，这意味着其估值约为过去 12 个月销售额的 19.5 倍。对于一家看起来正在衰落的公司来说，这是一个很高的估值，但在模因势头强劲的时代，传统的投资逻辑和估值指标有时会过时。</blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对于一些模因股票来说，这是“永不言败”的一年。例如，尽管发行了大量新股，而且核心业务的长期前景值得怀疑，但AMC院线在 2021 年的股价仍上涨了约 2,150%。</blockquote></p><p> History suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，模因领导者最终会感受到地心引力的吸引力，并开始更接近其基本面的交易。但你不能排除支持和其他热门模因门票在短期内将享受更大收益的可能性。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是 Support.com 股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Support.com Stock Was Down Big Tuesday<blockquote>这就是 Support.com 股价周二大幅下跌的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-01 09:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?</b>  <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>模因股票令人难以置信的反弹即将结束吗？</b><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Support.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.</li> </ul> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Support.com 是最新的超级热门模因股票，最近的回调并不一定表明其大幅上涨的日子已经结束。</li></ul><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">Support.com</a></b> slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.</p><p><blockquote>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPRT\">支持网</a></b>周二交易中暴跌两位数，收盘下跌约 13.8%。</blockquote></p><p> The pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>该股的回调必须放在上下文中。该公司最近吸引了 Reddit 的 WallStreetBets 董事会和其他青睐模因股票的投资者的关注，尽管今天遭到抛售，但其股价在 2021 年的交易中仍飙升了约 1,310%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Is there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.</p><p><blockquote>该公司的核心技术支持客户服务和安全软件业务是否推动了令人难以置信的反弹？可能不会。Support 的收入微薄，过去三年销售额下降了近␠43%。</blockquote></p><p> Like&nbsp;<b>GameStop</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings</b>&nbsp;before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.</p><p><blockquote>喜欢<b>游戏驿站</b>和<b>AMC院线控股</b>在此之前，该股因其较高的空头兴趣而吸引了投资者的关注。过去几年，散户投资者的新活动激增，这为大规模挤空铺平了道路，因为社交媒体的关注和新兴的大众情绪促使股票买家涌入遭受重创、失宠的公司追求爆炸性回报。</blockquote></p><p> Support's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held&nbsp;<b>Bitcoin</b>&nbsp;miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.</p><p><blockquote>Support 的股东还计划就与私人持有的潜在合并进行投票<b>比特币</b>9 月 10 日的矿工 Greenidge Generation。随着空头挤压势头的持续以及加密货币挖矿的潜在推动，对于模因股票投资者来说，股票可能会继续成为猫薄荷。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> The company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的市值约为 7.59 亿美元，这意味着其估值约为过去 12 个月销售额的 19.5 倍。对于一家看起来正在衰落的公司来说，这是一个很高的估值，但在模因势头强劲的时代，传统的投资逻辑和估值指标有时会过时。</blockquote></p><p> It's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>对于一些模因股票来说，这是“永不言败”的一年。例如，尽管发行了大量新股，而且核心业务的长期前景值得怀疑，但AMC院线在 2021 年的股价仍上涨了约 2,150%。</blockquote></p><p> History suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.</p><p><blockquote>历史表明，模因领导者最终会感受到地心引力的吸引力，并开始更接近其基本面的交易。但你不能排除支持和其他热门模因门票在短期内将享受更大收益的可能性。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/31/heres-why-supportcom-stock-was-down-big-today/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPRT":"Support.com"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/31/heres-why-supportcom-stock-was-down-big-today/?source=eptyholnk0000202&utm_source=yahoo-host&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=article","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1192163327","content_text":"Is the meme stock's incredible rally coming to an end?\n\nKey Points\n\nSupport.com is the latest super-hot meme stock, and the recent pullback doesn't necessarily indicate that its days of big gains are over.\n\nWhat happened\nShares of Support.com slumped by double digits in Tuesday's trading, ending the day down roughly 13.8%.\nThe pullback for the stock has to be put in context. The company has recently attracted attention from Reddit's WallStreetBets board and other investors who favor meme stocks, and its share price has soared roughly 1,310% in 2021's trading despite today's sell-off.\nSo what\nIs there anything about the company's core tech-support customer services and security software businesses driving the incredible rally? Probably not. Support is posting meager revenue, and its sales have slipped nearly 43% over the last three years.\nLike GameStop and AMC Entertainment Holdings before it, the stock has attracted investor attention due to its high short interest. The last couple of years have seen a surge of new activity among retail investors, and that's paved the way for a massive short squeeze as the social media spotlight and emerging popular sentiment have prompted stock buyers to pour into beaten-down, out-of-favor companies in pursuit of explosive returns.\nSupport's shareholders are also scheduled to vote on a potential merger with privately held Bitcoin miner Greenidge Generation on Sept. 10. With short squeeze momentum afoot and a potential push into crypto mining, shares could continue to be catnip for meme-stock investors.\nNow what\nThe company now has a market capitalization of roughly $759 million, which means that it's valued at roughly 19.5 times sales over the trailing-12-month period. That's a steep valuation for what otherwise looks to be a declining company, but conventional investing logic and valuation metrics sometimes go out the window in the era of meme momentum.\nIt's been a year of \"never say never\" for some meme stocks. AMC Entertainment, for example, is up roughly 2,150% in 2021 despite substantial new share offerings and a core business with a questionable long-term outlook.\nHistory suggests that meme leaders will eventually feel the pull of gravity and come to trade closer in line with their underlying fundamentals. But you can't rule out the possibility that Support and other hot meme tickets will enjoy more big gains the near term.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPRT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":794,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836445675,"gmtCreate":1629518398097,"gmtModify":1631890587403,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh no","listText":"Oh no","text":"Oh no","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836445675","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1040,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836159036,"gmtCreate":1629466734125,"gmtModify":1631890587414,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Doubt","listText":"Doubt","text":"Doubt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836159036","repostId":"2160971198","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":773,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":831767023,"gmtCreate":1629350721662,"gmtModify":1631890587410,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If you dare&nbsp;","listText":"If you dare&nbsp;","text":"If you dare","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/831767023","repostId":"1152703663","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":921,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839507822,"gmtCreate":1629164670366,"gmtModify":1631888360748,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3548519664875261","idStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Agree","listText":"Agree","text":"Agree","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839507822","repostId":"1133874781","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1133874781","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629164267,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1133874781?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1133874781","media":"TheStreet","summary":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazo","content":"<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票可能比当今亚马逊更好的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的行为相似，尤其是在过去一两年里。请看下面的一年滚动相关性图表--越接近+1，股票的日回报率就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了三个原因，说明为什么 AAPL 可能比同行 AMZN 更好。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven很快就会站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，以确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL 与 AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度收益以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增长率的急剧放缓。亚马逊已经证明，大流行病时期对公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>相反的情况发生在苹果身上。虽然较为悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但事实证明他们错了： 第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了 36% 和 101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对角度来看，不可否认的是，苹果股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了 AMZN 的估值如何比苹果高得多，无论是在追踪收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价不完美的环境中，多花一点钱购买人们可能认为更好的股票可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样的时期，股票估值似乎捉襟见肘，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.被低估的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Seeking Alpha 表示，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，虽然亚马逊在电子商务和云计算领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果的股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家位于库比蒂诺的公司可能会在明年或 2023 年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Reasons To Buy Apple Stock Over Amazon<blockquote>购买苹果股票而不是亚马逊股票的 3 个理由</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.</p><p><blockquote>这位苹果专家提出了苹果股票可能比当今亚马逊更好的三个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Amazon&nbsp;or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.</p><p><blockquote>亚马逊还是苹果股票？也许选择一个而不是另一个可能不会有太大的区别，因为两者的行为相似，尤其是在过去一两年里。请看下面的一年滚动相关性图表--越接近+1，股票的日回报率就越接近。</blockquote></p><p> But today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel&nbsp;Amazon Maven will soon take the other side&nbsp;of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.</p><p><blockquote>但今天，这位苹果专家提出了三个原因，说明为什么 AAPL 可能比同行 AMZN 更好。对于那些感兴趣的人来说，我们的姐妹频道亚马逊Maven很快就会站在争论的另一边。检查这两篇论文，以确定哪一篇最有意义。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2842dada1100f7fa50ce607c91359294\" tg-width=\"777\" tg-height=\"429\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 1：一年滚动相关性，AAPL 与 AMZN。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#1. Post-pandemic outperformer</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#1.大流行后跑赢大盘</b></blockquote></p><p> Since reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.</p><p><blockquote>自公布第二季度收益以来，亚马逊股价未能上涨。罪魁祸首是网店收入增长率的急剧放缓。亚马逊已经证明，大流行病时期对公司的电子商务业务特别有利，但派对可能已经结束。</blockquote></p><p> The opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.</p><p><blockquote>相反的情况发生在苹果身上。虽然较为悲观的分析师认为大流行后的环境将成为公司财务业绩的阻力，但事实证明他们错了： 第三财季的收入和盈利分别增长了 36% 和 101%，令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addc3e819f69d2aa771eb0cbf30a7d02\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"456\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：2021年第三季度按地理细分市场划分的收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#2. Valuations more appealing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2.估值更具吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> In absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).</p><p><blockquote>从绝对角度来看，不可否认的是，苹果股票比亚马逊更实惠。下图显示了 AMZN 的估值如何比苹果高得多，无论是在追踪收益（贵近两倍）还是自由现金流（贵得多）方面。</blockquote></p><p> In an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.</p><p><blockquote>在资产定价不完美的环境中，多花一点钱购买人们可能认为更好的股票可能是有意义的。但在像当前这样的时期，股票估值似乎捉襟见肘，在价格标签上更加保守可能是最好的方法。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8bbc5964d65a7779bfa877427132d2f5\" tg-width=\"999\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图3：AAPL和AMZN的估值。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>#3. Underappreciated growth</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3.被低估的增长</b></blockquote></p><p> Lastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.</p><p><blockquote>最后，Seeking Alpha 表示，亚马逊的营收和利润增长速度一直快于苹果，分析师预计未来情况仍将如此。然而，虽然亚马逊在电子商务和云计算领域的增长机会似乎众所周知，但苹果的股价可能无法正确反映该公司两到五年的增长潜力。</blockquote></p><p> The Cupertino company could be&nbsp;introducing a new mixed reality headset&nbsp;next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car&nbsp;that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.</p><p><blockquote>这家位于库比蒂诺的公司可能会在明年或 2023 年推出一款新的混合现实耳机，随后推出一款苹果汽车，这可能会极大地改变（改善？）该公司的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","AMZN":"亚马逊"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/3-reasons-to-buy-apple-stock-over-amazon","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1133874781","content_text":"The Apple Maven presents three reasons why Apple stock may be a better pick than Amazon today.\nAmazon or Apple stock? Maybe picking one over the other might not make too much difference, since both have behaved similarly, especially in the past year or two. See the rolling one-year correlation chart below – the closer to +1, the closer the stocks’ daily returns track each other.\nBut today, the Apple Maven presents three reasons why AAPL may be a better bet compared to its peer AMZN. For those interested, our sister channel Amazon Maven will soon take the other side of the argument. Check out both theses to determine which makes most sense.\nFigure 1: One-year rolling correlation, AAPL vs. AMZN.\n#1. Post-pandemic outperformer\nSince reporting Q2 earnings, Amazon stock has failed to gain any lift. The culprit has been a sharp deceleration in the online store’s revenue growth rate. Amazon has proved that the pandemic period was particularly beneficial for the company’s e-commerce business, but that the party might be over.\nThe opposite has happened to Apple. While the more pessimistic analysts believed that the post-pandemic environment would be a headwind to the company’s financial performance,Apple proved them wrong: astounding revenue and earnings growth of 36% and 101%, respectively, in fiscal Q3.\nFigure 2: FQ3 2021 revenue growth by geo segment.\n#2. Valuations more appealing\nIn absolute terms, it is undeniable that Apple stock is a more affordable play than Amazon. The chart below shows how AMZN is substantially more richly valued than Apple, both in terms of trailing earnings (nearly twice more expensive) and free cash flow (substantially more expensive).\nIn an environment in which assets are not priced for perfection, paying a bit more for what one might consider a better stock could make sense. But during a period like the current one, in which equity valuations seem stretched thin, being a bit more conservative on the price tag may be the best approach.\nFigure 3: AAPL and AMZN's valuation.\n#3. Underappreciated growth\nLastly, Amazon has been growing its top and bottom lines at a faster pace than Apple – and analysts expect this to still be the case going forward,according to Seeking Alpha. However, while Amazon’s growth opportunities in e-commerce and cloud seem to be well-understood, Apple stock price may not properly reflect the company’s two- to five-year growth potential.\nThe Cupertino company could be introducing a new mixed reality headset next year or in 2023,followed by an Apple Car that could drastically change (improve?) the company’s financial performance.Valued at an attractive current-year P/E of 25 times, I suspect that the market has not properly factored these opportunities into the share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMZN":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":992,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":169037811,"gmtCreate":1623808717933,"gmtModify":1634027804473,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment and like&nbsp;","listText":"Comment and like&nbsp;","text":"Comment and like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169037811","repostId":"1120789392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124871191,"gmtCreate":1624760198413,"gmtModify":1633948992522,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and share","listText":"Please like and share","text":"Please like and share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124871191","repostId":"1117734317","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117734317","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624759414,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117734317?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117734317","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong re","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare: The Bear Case<blockquote>广场：熊案</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>On the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.</li>  <li>In reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.</li>  <li>This has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.</li>  <li>And whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.</li>  <li>Given the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f072284e4d267ddbfaf6f17db8b6aa46\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>从表面上看，Square 似乎是一家成长型公司，也是一项良好的投资，具有强劲的收入增长和庞大的现金应用程序用户群。</li><li>事实上，该公司一直在努力将营收转化为利润。</li><li>这导致 Square 扩大其产品，以证明夸大的收入估值是合理的，而这可能永远不会带来有意义的盈利增长。</li><li>虽然乍一看，它的现金应用故事似乎是一个萌芽的前景，但它可能只不过是基于必要性的暂时增长。</li><li>鉴于目前的估值和日益增长的比特币阻力，Square 可能面临收入和盈利的大幅下调。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>AndreyPopov/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Square Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the&nbsp;most popular stocks&nbsp;among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.</p><p><blockquote>Square Inc.（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SQ）是最受散户交易者和投资者欢迎的股票之一，在 Robinhood 的 100 强排名中排名第 57 位。这导致去年价格上涨了 135%，使 SQ 的市值超过 1000 亿美元，与中型公司的波动性相媲美。</blockquote></p><p> On the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a&nbsp;banking license&nbsp;via Square Financial Services.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，价格和估值似乎是合理的，该公司通过 Cash App、比特币 (BTC-USD)、PPP 贷款逐步增加收入并扩大产品组合，最近还通过 Square Financial Services 凭借银行牌照深耕商业贷款业务。</blockquote></p><p> However, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于对严重依赖比特币收入的未来收入预测的猜测，这些估值正逐渐脱离公司及其核心业务的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adc746c80eba08b76805234d32a7eff4\" tg-width=\"638\" tg-height=\"358\"><span>Source: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 历史财务信息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.</p><p><blockquote>除此之外，SQ 还可能面临与小企业定位相关的其他几个问题；政策和法规；以及一般宏观经济因素，这些因素可能会产生不利因素，影响其估值，并给投资者带来不对称的下行风险，我将在下面进行推断。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>SQ是一家支付处理和商业工具提供商，促进企业/卖家和个人之间的交易，并为他们提供硬件、在线基础设施和分析。此外，它还通过现金应用程序为个人提供服务，该应用程序似乎正在呈指数级增长，允许用户发送、接收、持有和投资资金，最近还推出了比特币。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cee1136e6c6e1b5294daf79d06e4a1e8\" tg-width=\"382\" tg-height=\"421\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度股东信 - 现金应用程序流入与毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As of March 2020, the&nbsp;company has received a Banking License&nbsp;from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年3月，该公司已获得联邦存款保险公司（FDIC）颁发的银行许可证，可以向使用SQ进行支付处理的零售商发放商业贷款。</blockquote></p><p> Given all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于所有这些积极消息，根据未来增长预测，该股在过去 3 年中上涨了 330% 以上，并且自 2020 年以来一直追赶收入预期，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> This was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.</p><p><blockquote>这在新冠疫情期间很常见，因为未知的水域意味着营收增长对于生存至关重要。此外，美联储看似无休止的印钞，加上零利率，意味着资金流入显示出最高增长潜力的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/214a8d95ef4deef4b9e6e7ec8ca86793\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与每股收益预测和 2021 年收入预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在2021年第一季度，随着印刷放缓，收益率开始上升，联邦政府对个人的转移支付消散，因此不断增加的收入预期开始对市场意味着更少，导致SQ价格走势在200美元至280美元之间。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a03c8294f2805d4e82fbc3fed739f45\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 数据（年初至今平方价）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Quantitative</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数量的</b></blockquote></p><p> Year to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，SQ 相对于支付处理行业表现良好，为股东带来了约 12% 的价格上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c32bf1243cd5e4252fc8af88b2ee4bfb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector &gt;$50 bln Year to Date)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（SQ 与支付处理行业今年迄今为止 &gt;500 亿美元）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在远期收益和收入的基础上与这些公司进行评估时，也就不足为奇了。SQ 2021 年和 2022 年的盈利增长高于平均水平和中位数，2021 年收入增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b67e41d041b35bf5e8ae3c7adb55c7d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"444\"><span>Source: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，行业比较（支付处理商）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.</p><p><blockquote>虽然与同行相比，SQ 的远期市盈率似乎被夸大了，但其远期市盈率相对较小，低于行业平均水平和中位数，这或许证明了其当前价值的合理性。</blockquote></p><p> However, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.</p><p><blockquote>然而，一旦你从等式中删除比特币收入，你就会得到更夸张的前瞻性 PS 估计，而收入增长要低得多，而收入增长代表了 SQ 的主要业务。</blockquote></p><p> For this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.</p><p><blockquote>对于这个等式，我从 2021 年第一季度的业绩中删除了比特币的收入，并根据分析师的平均预期（该预期显示 2021 年第二季度至第四季度的收入几乎没有或没有连续增长）来判断，将该数字乘以 4 倍，年终收入估计为 61.4070 亿美元。前几年，我已经将比特币从收入中剔除。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/624b2de0076a4f2d6062c52036b5d176\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"182\"><span>Source: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 收入增长（2018 年至 2021 年比特币与不包括比特币的预测）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5337259448695cf7fc6a796d86dba775\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"245\"><span>Source: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，SQ 与行业比较（收入估计不包括比特币）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.</p><p><blockquote>正如我们所看到的，这描绘了一幅非常不同的公司图景，虽然收入增长仍略高于同样具有高市盈率的竞争对手，但突然之间，盈利估值看起来更有意义，并且很难证明远期市盈率高于平均水平 3 倍，高于中位数 4.5 倍。尤其是当美国运通公司（AXP）、万事达卡公司（MA）、PayPal控股公司（PYPL）和维萨卡公司（V）等公司的每股收益平均高出4倍时。其中大多数支付股息，并具有类似的增长估计，波动风险较小。</blockquote></p><p> Many will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which&nbsp;Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:</p><p><blockquote>许多人会认为“这并不重要，因为BTC现在是他们收入指标的一部分，除了交易量之外，重要的是”。不过，我举一个 2018 年比特币抛售的例子，其中比特币下跌了 70%，交易量也从高点下降了约 75%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b01941a1ab02f1b6dc27d73a2705a242\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"320\"><span>Source: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Bitcoinvisuals.com（2018年比特币市场交易量）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> On a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.</p><p><blockquote>从估值角度来看，如果比特币因全球监管加强而继续回调，这将给投资者带来巨大的下行风险，因为该公司基本上是根据比特币支撑的收入指标进行交易的。很简单，比特币的价格下降可能意味着收入预期的下调，从而导致SQ价格的高度波动回撤。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c89cf1b41c0d446571c7a471bb8d8e50\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"377\"><span>Source: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，使用 YCHARTS 的数据（平方价格相关性 - 收入、每股收益和 EBITDA）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到该股与同行相比的历史波动性，这种情况变得越来越有可能，而且它也成为共识空头头寸也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d47874b5957751f0d485a9aa9ec5016\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"233\"><span>Source: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者（SQ 与行业比较隐含和已实现波动性以及空头利息）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend&nbsp;in which the author suggests that&nbsp;SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in&nbsp;I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的分析， 作者认为 SQ 2025 年的增长基本上是在我不得不同意的价值趋势中定价的。SQ 对收入预测的依赖（比特币大幅放大了收入预测）给投资者带来了中短期内不对称的下行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Macro</b></p><p><blockquote><b>宏观的</b></blockquote></p><p> Whilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>虽然我们正处于重新开放的过程中，但许多事情仍然不确定，如需求可持续性水平、就业增长和创造以及通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p> Whilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.</p><p><blockquote>虽然媒体的情绪总体上是积极的，但在我们得出结论之前，有几个表面之下的宏观经济问题需要解决。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Environment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小型企业环境</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).</p><p><blockquote>SQ的MRQ显示，近49%的毛利润来自卖家生态系统（小企业）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a0f50d03e91a1609a120fa139b61e292\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（Q1 2021 10Q 第 39 页 - 分部毛利润）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> The majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with &lt;$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.</p><p><blockquote>其中大部分来自总付款额&lt;500,000美元的卖家（69.5%）。这使得square在很大程度上受到小商业周期波动的影响。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75fbdbba973e9d39e9d07b50d6174b03\" tg-width=\"380\" tg-height=\"502\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2021年第一季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Delving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.</p><p><blockquote>深入研究商业形成统计数据，有一幅美好的画面，2021年5月超过500,000份商业申请为SQ提供了无尽的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/777bf7fbfba7b466a8c89baa9b21a72d\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"475\"><span>Source: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Census.gov（商业应用，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Again, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.</p><p><blockquote>同样，当我们更深入地挖掘并查看对老牌小企业乐观情绪进行排名的统计数据时，情况开始扭曲，并开始看起来像2008年的下降。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e5be8fe67a4c257868eb79101d262e77\" tg-width=\"525\" tg-height=\"557\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 乐观，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当我们审视小企业未来的扩张前景时，这也降至低点，与2008年的情况类似。这可能表明 SQ 毛利率的面包和黄油可能不会以之前 2017 年至 2020 年期间的速度增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1a555c19fb385f170bb6deb2b3abcca\" tg-width=\"539\" tg-height=\"319\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，应该指出的是，小企业给出其负面前景的两个主要原因是“经济状况”和“政治气候”，这可能与2020年的选举、COVID、最近的政策变化有关，并且有些短暂。或者，它可能类似于 2008 年至 2016 年的缓慢 3 月，我们根本不知道，除了这是一个较低的读数，因此可能会影响 SQ 的高收入和盈利增长预期。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4fbef66ecf854fe482a86e001dec91e6\" tg-width=\"523\" tg-height=\"271\"><span>Source: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：NFIB（小企业经济趋势 - 展望原因，2021 年 5 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Small Business Lending</b></p><p><blockquote><b>小企业贷款</b></blockquote></p><p> Looking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the&nbsp;PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，SQ 显然旨在通过获得银行牌照来巩固其在商业贷款领域的地位。这对该公司来说非常积极，因为他们拥有庞大且不断增长的小型企业用户群、自 2014 年以来的经验以及于 2021 年 5 月 31 日停止的 PPP 计划。</blockquote></p><p> Currently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.</p><p><blockquote>目前，由于新冠疫情的复苏努力，银行贷款已经减少。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/327e5b2f822c5f6e8b6298b58c0d4f94\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（美国商业银行-商业和工业贷款）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This can be verified through the credit conditions index in the&nbsp;monthly NFIB report. Although, an&nbsp;American Banker survey&nbsp;is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.</p><p><blockquote>这可以通过NFIB月度报告中的信用状况指数来验证。尽管如此，美国银行家调查报告称，86%的小企业发现很难获得信贷，不得不求助于个人信贷。</blockquote></p><p> This is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of&nbsp;capital restraints&nbsp;placed on Wells Fargo &amp; Company (WFC).</p><p><blockquote>这对 SQ 来说是积极的，因为这将使他们能够填补市场上小企业的信贷缺口。尽管我认为这将是短暂的，因为有人猜测，当美联储缩减规模时，他们也将宣布解除对富国银行公司（WFC）的资本限制。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/530b7de3c5d05e7e8f5de219d3582ea7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"689\"><span>Source: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：瑞士信贷（全球货币快报 - 2021 年 5 月 25 日）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had&nbsp;lifted these restraints&nbsp;to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美联储在 2020 年初取消了这些限制，以通过 PPP 计划帮助小企业，而缩减规模有着扰乱市场的历史，这种情况发生的可能性相当大。如果这种情况发生，我怀疑 WFC 将再次成为小企业信贷领域的巨头，并且由于其在该领域广泛的网络和历史，将成为 SQ 的强劲竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin, Legislation &amp; Gensler</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币、立法和根斯勒</b></blockquote></p><p> Bitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor&nbsp;banks&nbsp;have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the&nbsp;purchase of Bitcoin using their services.</p><p><blockquote>截至2020年下半年和2021年上半年的大部分时间，比特币一直是头条新闻，这是有充分理由的。它在散户交易者和投资者中越来越受欢迎，并表现出非凡的升值。此外，一些小银行对这种媒介感兴趣，尽管许多银行和金融机构已经明确禁止使用他们的服务购买比特币。</blockquote></p><p> The primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as&nbsp;money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.</p><p><blockquote>他们反对的主要原因很可能与非法活动有关，如洗钱、恐怖主义、虚假交易量，以及我不想参与的类似活动，银行也不想参与。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Consequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China&nbsp;and&nbsp;India.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在最近的炒作中，许多国家现在正在介入监管比特币的使用，但其他国家更进一步，正在制定立法禁止其使用和开采，最明显的是中国和印度。</blockquote></p><p> This has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.</p><p><blockquote>自 2021 年 5 月 ATHs 以来，这对比特币的价格产生了负面影响，约为 65,000 美元，此后回撤了 -46%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with&nbsp;Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.</p><p><blockquote>这对比特币的未来也是极其不利的，因为大部分比特币采矿是在中国进行的（年初至今约70%），采矿的算力与价格相关。因此，如果这些价格因中国采矿活动减少而下降，价格肯定会随之下跌，从而影响 SQ 的比特币持有量和未来交易量。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/75ef78953396700241870a3f3ae8d8be\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"382\"><span>Source: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：剑桥大学（剑桥比特币年初至今电力消耗指数）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst the SEC has come out and said that&nbsp;Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has&nbsp;warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to&nbsp;2000 and 2008.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美国证券交易委员会已经出面表示比特币监管不在他们2021年的议程上，但Gary Gensler警告投资者要谨慎。Gensler在保护投资者的法规方面也有着悠久的历史，尽管没有将比特币列入2021年的议程，但我建议读者研究他在2000年和2008年的历史。</blockquote></p><p> Looking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，总体而言，这对比特币和 SQ 来说不是好兆头。很可能会有进一步的监管而不是采纳，对其价格产生负面影响，导致 2018 年产量下降以及采矿活动重演。</blockquote></p><p> <b>General Economy - The Worry for Retail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总体经济 - 零售业的担忧</b></blockquote></p><p> Separately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout&nbsp;2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.</p><p><blockquote>另外，我们也可能看到零售业未来的负面形势。零售业的复苏大部分并非由“被压抑的需求”推动，而是主要通过 2020 年全年和 2021 年初发放的补贴。当检查下图时，我们可以看到，一旦你减去转移收据（政府刺激支票和就业福利——红线），收入就不是以前的样子了。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97a5a8cfaa11dd3c5ab5544778a40b90\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"247\"><span>Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行（可支配收入与实际收入减去转移支付与个人储蓄与零售贸易销售额）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.</p><p><blockquote>此外，我们可以看到，零售销售的大部分飙升（紫色）主要是由刺激支票推动的，刺激支票支票支撑了可支配收入（蓝色）和消费者储蓄（绿色），尽管现在刺激已经结束，人们不得不开始挖掘他们的储蓄，3月至4月期间，储蓄环比下降了54%。</blockquote></p><p> The consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is&nbsp;considered to be the most revealing&nbsp;amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.</p><p><blockquote>在研究U6失业率时，消费者支出情况变得更糟，经济学家认为U6失业率是最能说明问题的，因为它包括失业、就业不足和沮丧的求职者。总的来说，这对未来的可自由支配消费模式来说不是一个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c09f260d254df1a847962a6b6896764c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"388\"><span>Source: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Macrotrends.net（U6 失业率 vs U5 失业率 vs 官方数据）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Finally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.</p><p><blockquote>最后，食品和能源成本的上涨（我预计食品成本将持续上涨）应该会阻碍消费者未来的可自由支配支出。我之前写过关于马赛克公司（MOS）和安德森公司（ANDE）的文章，概述了我对这一趋势的理由。</blockquote></p><p> In relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，我们可以根据2019年底的数据看到他们对非必需消费品支出的历史敞口。当考虑以下数字时：零售；专业服务、美容和个人护理、家居和维修、休闲和娱乐以及休闲使用，总敞口约为59%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddddbe8ed21ed16aab29a7b5ebbc846\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Statista（Raynor de Best - 卖家行业 GPV，2019 年 12 月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Whilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.</p><p><blockquote>虽然由于比特币的权重，这可能不会对其收入数据产生重大影响，但我确实预计这将削弱未来的毛利润数据，并随着刺激措施进一步消退，对利润率产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financials</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Bitcoin</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比特币</b></blockquote></p><p> When examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).</p><p><blockquote>在检查SQ的财务状况时，我们可以很容易地看到，比特币是推动其收入增长的主要因素（MRQ占总收入的69%），其估值就是由此得出的（参见上面的介绍部分-SQ价格与收入部分；和定量部分-SQ价格相关性）。</blockquote></p><p> From their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.</p><p><blockquote>从他们2021年第一季度股东信第12页中，他们表示，截至2021年3月31日，他们持有的股份的公允价值为4.72亿美元。这一天的收盘价为58,918.83美元，约合8,011个比特币。他们还表示，他们最初在这一时期和第四季度向比特币投资了 2 亿美元，因此他们的平均价格约为每个比特币 25,000 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Currently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.</p><p><blockquote>目前，比特币的价格约为34,600美元，它似乎也在努力寻找牵引力，特别是当你检查一些其他趋势时。例如，看看谷歌趋势上“购买比特币”的搜索趋势，这显然正在减弱。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d6b3b70625f48232fa97f1aa14f5548e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"333\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 全球 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Additionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.</p><p><blockquote>此外，当你将这些数据与刺激支付进行比较时，很明显两者之间在2020年下半年存在关系，最近的许多猜测可能是由政府补贴驱动的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54329dbe61b7b1f9fc1347f632aff709\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\"><span>Source: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：USA.Gov（新冠刺激支票日期）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.</p><p><blockquote>搜索量的激增大约发生在后两次政府刺激支票的时间，滞后几天到几周。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c7a198a905e4a89f11faa1b4db4003b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"340\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：Google Trends（购买比特币搜索词 - 美国 12 个月）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.</p><p><blockquote>这也与比特币在2020年12月和2021年1月的价格上涨以及2021年3月和4月的失败反弹相吻合。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0428576ae2c8312e747c3ae5fccab637\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"401\"><span>Source: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：YCHARTS（比特币价格 1 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.</p><p><blockquote>因此，在这个例子中，如果我们持续抛售-70%，这与2018年发生的情况类似。我们将回到2020年11月大约20,000美元的比特币价格。</blockquote></p><p> This is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在数量减少、进一步立法和哈希率下降的基础上，这仍然是可行的。也可以推测，SQ可能会产生4000万美元的减值费用，这将极大地影响经营利润、净利润和股东收益以及未来预测。尽管这纯粹是理论上的，没有考虑本季度的交易，例如在 ATHs 或附近的购买或销售。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于未来缺乏刺激付款和消费者可自由支配支出收紧，随着进入该领域的资金减少和交易量下降，比特币产生的收入也可能下降。对 SQ 的收入预测以及随后的价格和估值产生负面影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cash App</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现金应用程序</b></blockquote></p><p> On the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.</p><p><blockquote>从表面上看，Cash App 似乎正在呈指数级增长，成为用户交易的可行平台，每月交易活跃客户超过 3600 万，同比增长 50%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b457a1d1f65d9d40fac153a9926aa167\" tg-width=\"262\" tg-height=\"230\"><span>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：SQ投资者关系（2020年第四季度股东信）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:</p><p><blockquote>然而，现金应用程序的这种增长未来可能是不可持续的，SQ 在其季度备案说明中对此进行了详细阐述：</blockquote></p><p>   Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from&nbsp;  <b>government relief programs</b>&nbsp;most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)</i>  Part of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.</p><p><blockquote>Cash App 收入受益于活跃 Cash App 客户数量的增长以及<b>政府救济计划</b>最近于2020年12月下旬和2021年3月通过成为法律，以及2020年通过的早期刺激计划的累积收益。这些计划提供了额外的刺激救济和失业救济，导致消费者支出和流入我们的现金应用生态系统的增加。Cash App 的收入增长可能不会在未来几个季度保持在相同的水平，并且可能会受到进一步刺激救济和福利计划的颁布以及比特币的需求和市场价格等因素的影响。<i>资料来源：SQ 投资者关系（2021 年第一季度第 10 季度文件 - 第 49 页）</i>Cash App的部分问题是理论上的持续使用和未来的采用。去年的大部分增长主要是由现金应用生态系统的刺激支付推动的，因此在这种情况下是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> The two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:</p><p><blockquote>该应用程序的搜索量出现了两次急剧上升：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>April 12-18 2020</li>  <li>January 24-30 2021</li> </ul> These coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2020年4月12日至18日</li><li>2021年1月24日至30日</li></ul>这些与刺激付款相吻合，因为他们最初发送刺激付款，并逐渐将其存入人们的账户。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f9485d2feac40030b5190195a471781e\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Google Trends（现金应用搜索词 - 美国 5 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Therefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.</p><p><blockquote>因此，随着政府刺激付款的结束，比特币再次失去相关性，越来越多的人重返工作岗位，减少日内交易，这可能会对未来的用户增长指标产生负面影响，影响 SQ 收入预期、毛利润数据及其收益。</blockquote></p><p> Further, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.</p><p><blockquote>此外，还有许多其他更可行的平台，另一位寻求阿尔法贡献者价值趋势在这里详细阐述了这些平台。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:</p><p><blockquote>同样重要的是要记住他们如何定义这些用户，“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”如下：</blockquote></p><p>   ... has at least  <b>one financial transaction</b>using any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.    <i>Source: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)</i>  So, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...</p><p><blockquote>...至少有<b>一笔金融交易</b>在指定期间内使用Cash App内的任何产品或服务。<i>资料来源：SQ Investor Relations（2020 年第四季度股东信 - 第 4 页）</i>因此，如果客户每月一次从雇主那里收到工资或失业救济金，并每月一次将其全部转入他们的银行账户，他们就是“交易活跃现金应用程序客户”...</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.</p><p><blockquote>也许“活跃”客户的更好量化指标是大于5笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p> Examining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.</p><p><blockquote>检查 SQ 的技术面，很明显该股目前在 200 美元至 280 美元之间波动，多次尝试突破 250 美元，两次尝试在 300 美元附近失败，显示出一些势头正在消退的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4c277d5239e06c67b7ff6fd7fff319bb\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"642\"><span>Source: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者，数据来自 FINVIZ（SQ 图）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.</p><p><blockquote>在检查暗池订单流量时，由于暗池处于低位，当前的涨势有可能继续，这可能会持续到 8 月份的收益。虽然我不会抱太大希望，除非出现一些严肃的好消息，比特币重返ATHs。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3323bfcd903c74dce542b53b0b56e093\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\"><span>Source: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Squeezemetrics.com（SQ Dark Pools 与 Implied Vol 2 年）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> From the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>从13F备案中我们也可以看到，不少基金都减少了敞口，平仓，新进持仓较少。看跌期权与看涨期权的比率也变得相当高，尤其是对于一只市值达 1000 亿美元的股票来说，这表明我们并不是唯一有同样想法的人。</blockquote></p><p> Caution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.</p><p><blockquote>不过，需要谨慎，因为 SQ 与比特币的问题显然正在成为共识交易，当这些看跌期权被解除时，伽马可能会变为正，这可能会导致该股大幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b221f08c025ba225e32114f0e76dd272\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"152\"><span>Source: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Whalewisdom.com（SQ基金定位）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Further, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been&nbsp;significant liquidity issues&nbsp;the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.</p><p><blockquote>此外，关于 ARK ETF，过去 6 个月出现重大流动性问题也就不足为奇了，我同意另一位 Seeking Alpha 撰稿人的论点，即我们将看到这些 ETF 中持有的股票价格回归均值。值得注意的是，凯西已经大大减少了她对SQ的接触，她可能会选择她的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ecce0e1f1cd9e7e47fe27105be3f6ad0\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\"><span>Source: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Cathiesark.com（持有的 SQ 股票 - 所有 ETF）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Given the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于上述信息，这是一家很难做空的公司。它要么会带来巨大的回报，要么会因为它的波动性而撕掉你的脸。此外，许多基金希望对财务报表上有比特币的公司进行一定程度的投资。因此，如果你要自担风险将其交易为空头，建议谨慎行事，你应该始终选择你的战斗。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Targets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>价格目标</b></blockquote></p><p> On the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SQ ATR 的波动性，SQ 可能会在今年年底跌至约 100 美元的低点，有 40% 的时间是有利的。如果你把比特币完全从等式中剔除，这与我2021年底的价格一致。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4ec1e2586568ef7e0aea0c54e3503acc\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"222\"><span>Source: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者（SQ ATR计算器）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> However, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这样做是不明智的，因为这是他们收入的一部分，无论2021年初的比特币销量有多高，年底的销量有多低。</blockquote></p><p> I do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.</p><p><blockquote>我确实预计该股将再次下跌并重新测试 200 美元，可能跌至 160 美元。虽然用SQ确定估值非常困难，主要是因为估值来自比特币收入，也来自基金和市场在未来采用资产时的感知价值。</blockquote></p><p> If the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).</p><p><blockquote>如果市场开始再次认为比特币无关紧要，我预计 SQ 将慢慢抛售至 150 美元至 160 美元之间（-37% 下行空间），并且不太可能反弹至 300 美元以上（25% 上行空间）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> With respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.</p><p><blockquote>关于SQ，应注意以下风险。</blockquote></p><p> The company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?</p><p><blockquote>不管你喜不喜欢SQ，公司都在成长。主要问题是：市场价值比特币会有任何现实的基础吗？有没有比特币，它增长了多少？有没有比特币，未来的潜在增长是多少？市场相信吗，或者就此而言，市场在乎吗？</blockquote></p><p></p><p> If the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.</p><p><blockquote>如果比特币失去相关性，从谷歌趋势来看，更有可能的是，假设 SQ 将因此而在 2021 年下半年遭受损失，并对收入预期造成重大打击，这并不奇怪。然而，如果比特币的采用率增加，负面新闻消失，因为这是一家成长型公司，它可能会继续反弹。</blockquote></p><p> Further, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.</p><p><blockquote>此外，消费者支出模式正在产生混合数据，上面我提出了一个熊市案例。如果人们的行为发生变化，例如申请将增加经济支出的工作，并有望促进小企业增长，增加小企业乐观情绪和扩张，这对SQ作为支付处理领域的周期性业务非常有利。</blockquote></p><p> Again, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.</p><p><blockquote>同样，谨慎是必要的，尽管我确实认为公司未来的增长是有价格的，SQ 持有者面临的下行风险高于上行风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> SQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>SQ 是一家高增长公司，从长远来看有一些潜在的积极因素；然而，其估值非常值得怀疑，因为其高收入估计主要来自比特币交易，而不是底线盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p> From a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>从数量的角度来看，它在同行中看起来不错，但经过进一步检查，它似乎被严重高估了，因为未来的增长，至少在2021年，可能来自比特币。此外，如果没有政府的持续刺激，其现金应用程序采用统计数据可能不会继续保持同样的运行率。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.</p><p><blockquote>此外，它还面临着几个潜在的宏观经济障碍，涉及小企业风险、贷款竞争对手、消费者交易竞争对手、比特币立法和零售需求疲软。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436723-square-the-bear-case","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117734317","content_text":"Summary\n\nOn the surface, Square appears to be a growing company and a good investment with strong revenue growth and a large Cash App user base.\nIn reality, the company has struggled to translate its top line into bottom line earnings.\nThis has resulted in Square expanding its products to justify exaggerated revenue valuations which may never result in meaningful earnings growth.\nAnd whilst at first glance its Cash App story appears to be a budding prospect, it may be nothing more than temporary growth based on necessity.\nGiven the current valuation and the increasing Bitcoin headwinds, Square could face significant revisions downwards in revenue and earnings.\n\nAndreyPopov/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nSquare Inc.(NYSE:SQ)is one of the most popular stocks among retail traders and investors, ranking 57 in Robinhood's top 100 rankings. This has resulted in a 135% increase in price over the last year allowing SQ to reach a market capitalization of greater than $100bln, trading with the volatility of a mid-cap company.\nOn the surface the price and valuation may seem justified, with the company sequentially increasing revenues and expanding its portfolio of products through Cash App, Bitcoin (BTC-USD), PPP loans and most recently delving into the commercial loans business with a banking license via Square Financial Services.\nHowever, these valuations are becoming disaggregated from the fundamentals of the company and its core business on speculation of future revenue projections which are heavily reliant on Bitcoin revenues.\nSource: Author, with data from SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Historical Financial Information)\nIn addition to this, SQ potentially faces several other issues related to small business positioning; policy and regulation; and general macroeconomic factors which may create headwinds that will impact its valuation and pose an asymmetric downside risk for investors, which I will extrapolate on below.\nOverview\nSQ is a payment processing and business tool provider that facilitates transactions between businesses / sellers and individuals and provides them with hardware, online infrastructure and analytics. Additionally, it services individuals through Cash App which appears to be growing exponentially and allows users to send, receive, hold and invest money, and recently Bitcoin.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter - Cash App Inflows vs Gross Profit)\nAs of March 2020, the company has received a Banking License from the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) to originate commercial loans to retailers which use SQ for payment processing.\nGiven all of this positive news, it is not surprising that the stock has rallied over 330% in the last 3 years on the basis of future growth projections and, since 2020, has chased revenue estimates.\nThis was a common occurrence during COVID, as unchartered waters meant that top line growth was imperative for survival. Further, seemingly endless money printing by the Fed, combined with zero rates, meant money flowed into stocks which showed the highest potential for growth.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs EPS Estimates and Revenue Estimates 2021)\nHowever, in Q1 2021, as the printing slowed, yields began to rise and federal transfers to individuals dissipated, and consequently ever increasing revenue estimates began to mean less for the market, resulting in SQ price action ranging between $200 to $280.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price YTD)\nQuantitative\nYear to Date, SQ has been a good performer relative to the payment processing sector, returning ~12% price increases to shareholders.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ vs Payment Processing Sector >$50 bln Year to Date)\nIt is also not a surprise to see why when evaluated against these companies on a forward earnings and revenue basis. SQ has above average and median earnings growth for 2021 and 2022, as well as strong revenue growth for 2021.\nSource: Author, Sector Comparison (Payment Processors)\nWhilst SQ's forward PE seems exaggerated in contrast to its counterparts, its forward PS is relatively small and below the sector averages and median, perhaps justifying its present value.\nHowever, once you remove Bitcoin revenue from the equation, you get much more exaggerated forward PS estimates on much lower revenue growth, which represents SQ's primary business.\nFor this equation, I have removed Bitcoin revenue from their Q1 2021 results, and judging by average analyst expectations which show little to no sequential revenue growth from Q2-Q4 2021, multiplied this figure by 4x for a year end revenue estimate of $6,140.70 mln. For prior years, I have removed Bitcoin from Revenue.\nSource: Author, SQ Revenue Growth (2018 to 2021 Estimates with Bitcoin vs excl Bitcoin)\nSource: Author, SQ vs Sector Comps (Revenue Estimates excl Bitcoin)\nAs we can see this paints a very different picture of the company, and whilst revenue is still growing slightly above comps which also have high PS ratios, suddenly valuations on earnings look more meaningful and it becomes difficult to justify a forward PE 3x above the average and 4.5x above the median. Especially when companies such as American Express Co (AXP), Mastercard Inc (MA), PayPal Holdings Inc (PYPL) and Visa Inc (V) are producing on average 4x higher EPS. The majority of which pay a dividend and have similar growth estimates with less volatility risk.\nMany will suggest that \"this does not matter as BTC is now part of their revenue metrics and that is that, besides transaction volume is what is important\". However, I would cite the example of the 2018 Bitcoin sell off in which Bitcoin fell 70%, and transaction volumes fell from highs by approximately 75% as well:\nSource: Bitcoinvisuals.com (Bitcoin Market Volume 2018)\nOn a valuation basis, this presents a substantial downside risk to investors if Bitcoin continued to retrace as a result of being met by increased regulation globally, as the company is essentially trading on revenue metrics propped up by Bitcoin. Quite simply, price down in Bitcoin could mean downwards revisions to revenue estimates and consequently a highly volatile retracement in the price of SQ.\nSource: Author, using data from YCHARTS (SQ Price Correlation - Revenue, EPS and EBITDA)\nThis becomes increasingly likely given the historical volatility of the stock when compared to its peers and it is not surprising that it is also becoming a consensus short position.\nSource: Author (SQ vs Sector Comps Implied and Realized Volatility and Short Interest)\nGiven the analysis by another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend in which the author suggests that SQ's 2025 growth is essentially priced in I would have to agree. SQ's reliance on revenue estimates which have been amplified substantially by Bitcoin present an asymmetric risk to the downside in the short to medium term for investors.\nMacro\nWhilst we are in the process of reopening, many things remain uncertain, such as the level of demand sustainability, job growth and creation, and inflation.\nWhilst the sentiment is overall positive in the media, there are several macroeconomic issues that are beneath the surface which need to be resolved before we can conclude that we are in the clear.\nSmall Business Environment\nSQ's MRQ shows that nearly 49% of the Gross Profit comes from the Seller ecosystem (small businesses).\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Page 39 - Segmented Gross Profit)\nThe majority of this is originating from exposure to sellers with <$500,000 Gross Payment Volume (69.5%). This makes square substantially exposed to fluctuations in the small business cycle.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter)\nDelving into the Business Formation Statistics, there is a rosy picture, with over 500,000 business applications for the month of May, 2021 providing an endless surge of opportunity for SQ.\nSource: Census.gov (Business Applications, May 2021)\nAgain, when we dig deeper and look at the statistics below which rank the optimism of established small businesses, the picture begins to distort and starts to look like the descent into 2008.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Optimism, May 2021)\nFurther, when we examine Small Business future outlook on expansion, this has also descended to lows and similar to what was seen in 2008. This could suggest that the bread and butter of SQ's gross profit margin, may not expand at the rate previously seen during 2017 to 2020.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Outlook, May 2021)\nAdditionally, it should be noted that the two primary reasons small businesses are giving for their negative outlook are \"Economic Conditions\" and \"Political Climate\", which could be related to the election in 2020, COVID, recent policy changes and be somewhat transitory. Alternatively it could resemble the slow march of 2008 to 2016, we simply do not know, except for the fact it is a low reading and consequently could weigh on SQ's high revenue and earnings growth estimates.\nSource: NFIB (Small Business Economic Trends - Reasons for Outlook, May 2021)\nSmall Business Lending\nLooking forward, SQ clearly aims to solidify its position in the commercial lending space through acquiring a banking license. This is very positive for the company due to their large and growing small business user base,their experience since 2014, and the PPP program, which stopped on May 31, 2021.\nCurrently, bank lending has receded as a result of recovery efforts from COVID.\nSource: YCHARTS (US Commercial Banks - Commercial and Industrial Loans)\nThis can be verified through the credit conditions index in the monthly NFIB report. Although, an American Banker survey is reporting that 86% of small businesses are finding it difficult to access credit, and are having to resort to personal credit.\nThis is positive for SQ as it will allow them to fill the gap for credit to small business within the market. Though I believe it will be short lived as there is speculation that when the Fed tapers, they will also announce the lifting of capital restraints placed on Wells Fargo & Company (WFC).\nSource: Credit Suisse (Global Money Dispatch - 25 May 2021)\nThere is a fairly good probability that this will occur, given that early in 2020 the Fed had lifted these restraints to help small businesses via the PPP program and tapering has a history of upsetting the market. If this occurs, I suspect WFC will become a giant amongst the small business credit space once more and be a very tough competitor to SQ due to their extensive network and history in the space.\nBitcoin, Legislation & Gensler\nBitcoin has been making headlines as of 2H 2020 and much of 1H 2021 for good reason. It is gaining traction amongst retail traders and investors and has shown exceptional appreciation. Further, some minor banks have been interested in the medium although many banks and financial institutions have explicitly banned the purchase of Bitcoin using their services.\nThe primary reasons for their objection is more than likely to do with illicit activities, such as money laundering,terrorism,fake transaction volumes, and similar activities which I do not want to get into and neither do banks.\nConsequently, on the recent hype, many countries are now stepping in to regulate the use of Bitcoin, but others are going a step further and are enacting legislation to ban its use and mining, most notably,China and India.\nThis has had a negative impact on the price of Bitcoin since the ATHs in May 2021 of ~$65,000, retracing -46% since then.\nIt is also extremely negative for Bitcoin going forward as the majority of Bitcoin mining is done in China (~70% YTD) with Hashrates of mining being correlated to the price. Therefore if these recede on decreasing Chinese mining activity, price could surely follow, affecting SQ's Bitcoin holdings and future transaction volumes.\nSource: Cambridge University (Cambridge Bitcoin Electricity Consumption Index YTD)\nWhilst the SEC has come out and said that Bitcoin regulation is not on their agenda for 2021, Gary Gensler has warned investors to be cautious. Gensler is also has a long history on regulations to protect investors, and despite not putting Bitcoin on the agenda for 2021, I advise readers to study his history with respect to 2000 and 2008.\nLooking out further, this does not bode well for Bitcoin and SQ, generally. It is likely that there could be further regulation rather than adoption, negatively impacting its price, leading to a repeat of 2018 lower volumes as well as mining activity.\nGeneral Economy - The Worry for Retail\nSeparately, we could also be seeing a negative situation for retail going forward. Much of the recovery in retail as not been driven by \"pent up demand\" but mostly through subsidies issued throughout 2020 and the start of 2021. When examining the graph below, we can see that once you subtract transfer receipts (government stimulus cheques and employment benefits - red line), income is not what it used to be.\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (Disposable Income vs Real Income minus Transfers vs Personal Savings vs Retail Trade Sales)\nAdditionally, we can see that much of the spikes in retail sales (purple) have been driven mainly through the stimulus cheques which bolstered disposable income (blue) and consumer savings (green), though now stimulus has ended and people are having to start to dig into their savings, which is dropped 54% month on month between March and April.\nThe consumer spending situation is made worse when examining U6 unemployment, which is considered to be the most revealing amongst economists as it includes unemployed, underemployed and discouraged job seekers. This, generally speaking, does not bode well for consumer discretionary spending patterns going forward.\nSource: Macrotrends.net (U6 Unemployment Rate vs U5 vs Official)\nFinally, the rising cost of food and energy, which for food I expect to continue, should hamper consumer discretionary spend going forward. I have previously written articles on The Mosaic Company (MOS)hereand The Andersons (ANDE)here, which outline my justification for this trend.\nIn relation to SQ, we can see their historical exposure to consumer discretionary spend based on end 2019 data. When taking into account figures from: retail; professional services, beauty and personal care, home and repair, leisure and entertainment, and casual use, the total exposure is approximately 59%.\nSource: Statista (Raynor de Best - GPV by Seller Industry Dec 2019)\nWhilst this may not impact its revenue figures substantially due to the weighting of bitcoin, I do expect this to undermine is gross profit figures going forward and negatively impact margins as stimulus further fades.\nFinancials\nBitcoin\nWhen examining the financials of SQ we can easily see that Bitcoin is the predominant factor driving its revenue growth (MRQ 69% of total revenue) of which its valuation is derived (see above Introduction section - SQ Price vs Revenue Segments; and Quantitative section - SQ Price correlation).\nFrom their Q1 2021 Shareholder Letter, page 12 they have stated that on March 31, 2021 the fair value of their holdings was $472 million. On this date the closing price was $58,918.83, or approximately 8,011 Bitcoins. They also state they initially invested $200 million into bitcoin during this period and Q4, so their average price is roughly $25,000 per Bitcoin.\nCurrently, the price of Bitcoin sits at approximately $34,600 and it also appears to be struggling to find traction, especially when you examine some other trends. For example, looking at search trends of \"Buy Bitcoin\" on Google Trends, this is clearly waning.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - Worldwide 5 Yrs)\nAdditionally, when you align this data with stimulus payments it is clear there is a relationship between the two in 2H 2020, and much of the recent speculation could be driven by government subsidies.\nSource: USA.Gov (COVID Stimulus Cheque Dates)\nThe spike in searches occurs roughly around the time of the two latter government stimulus cheques with a lag of a few days to a few weeks.\nSource: Google Trends (Buy Bitcoin search terms - USA 12 Months)\nThis also coincides with Bitcoin's price run up in December 2020 and January 2021, as well the failed rally in March and April 2021.\nSource: YCHARTS (Bitcoin Price 1 Yr)\nThus, in this example, if we have a continued sell off of -70%, which is similar to what occurred in 2018. We would be back at November 2020 Bitcoin prices of $20,000 approximately.\nThis is still feasible on the basis of dwindling volume, further legislation and declining hashrates. It could also be theorized that SQ may carry an impairment charge of $40 million, which would greatly affect operating income, net income and shareholder earnings and future estimates. Though this is purely theoretical without accounting for transactions in the current quarter, such as purchases or sales at or near ATHs.\nAdditionally, with the lack of stimulus payments going forward and tighter consumer discretionary spend, the revenue generated from Bitcoin may also decline as less money enters the space and volumes decline. Negatively impacting revenue estimates for SQ and subsequently their price and valuation.\nCash App\nOn the surface, it looks like Cash App is growing exponentially into a viable platform for users to transact, with more than 36 million monthly transacting active customers, up 50% YoY.\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter)\nHowever, this growth in Cash App may be unsustainable going forward, with SQ elaborating on this in their Quarterly filing notes:\n\n Cash App revenue benefited from growth in numbers of active Cash App customers and from \n government relief programs most recently passed into law in late December 2020 and in March 2021, as well as cumulative benefit from earlier stimulus programs passed in 2020. These programs provided additional stimulus relief and unemployment benefits which resulted in an increase in consumer spending and inflows into our Cash App ecosystem. Cash App revenue growth may not be sustained at the same levels in future quarters and may be impacted by the enactment of further stimulus relief and benefit programs, as well as the demand and market prices for bitcoin, amongst other factors.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q1 2021 10Q Filings - Page 49)\n\nPart of the issue with Cash App is theoretical continued use and future adoption. Much of the growth seen over the last year was predominantly fueled by stimulus payments through the Cash App ecosystem, and therefore by necessity given the circumstances.\nThe two sharp spikes in searches for the app occurred on:\n\nApril 12-18 2020\nJanuary 24-30 2021\n\nThese coincide with stimulus payments as they initially sent them and they gradually deposited them into people's accounts.\nSource: Google Trends (Cash App search terms - USA 5 Years)\nTherefore, as government stimulus payments end, and Bitcoin again fades from relevancy, and more people return to work and day-trade less, this could negatively impact user growth metrics going forward, impacting SQ revenue estimates, gross profit figures, and its earnings.\nFurther, there are a multitude of other more viable platforms, which another Seeking Alpha contributor,The Value Trend, has elaborated onhere.\nIt is also important to keep in mind how they define these users, a \"Transacting active Cash App customer\" is the following:\n\n ... has at least\n one financial transactionusing any product or service within Cash App during the specified period.\n\n\nSource: SQ Investor Relations (Q4 2020 Shareholder Letter - Page 4)\n\nSo, if a customer received their wages from an employer, or unemployment benefit, into Cash App once per month, and transferred all of it to their bank account once per month, they are a \"transacting active Cash App customer\"...\nPerhaps a better quantifier of an \"active\" customer would be greater than 5 transactions.\nTechnicals\nExamining the technicals of SQ, it is clear that the stock is now ranging between $200 and $280, with several breakout attempts at $250 and 2 failed attempts near $300, showing several signs that momentum is dying out.\nSource: Author, with data from FINVIZ (SQ Chart)\nWhen examining dark pool order flows, there is a possibility for the current rally to continue as dark pools are at lows, which may likely continue into earnings by August. Although I would not get my hopes up unless some seriously good news occurs and Bitcoin rallies back to ATHs.\nSource: Squeezemetrics.com (SQ Dark Pools vs Implied Vol 2 Years)\nFrom the 13F filings, we can also see that many funds have reduced exposure and closed their positions, with fewer new positions being added. The Put to Call ratio is also becoming quite high, especially on a stock that has $100 bln market cap, signaling that we are not the only ones thinking the same thing.\nCaution is required though, as SQ's issues with Bitcoin are obviously becoming a consensus trade, and when those puts are lifted, gamma may turn positive and it could cause the stock to rally significantly.\nSource: Whalewisdom.com (SQ Funds Positioning)\nFurther, with relation to ARK ETFs, it is no surprise that there have been significant liquidity issues the last 6 months, and I agree with another Seeking Alpha contributor's thesisherethat we will see a reversion to the mean with respect to prices of stocks held in these ETFs. What can be noted is that Cathie has significantly reduced her exposure to SQ and that she may be picking her battles.\nSource: Cathiesark.com (SQ Shares Held - All ETFs)\nGiven the above information, this is a difficult company to be short. It will either payoff enormously, or rip your face off due to its volatility. Additionally there are many funds wanting some small level of exposure to a company with Bitcoin on the financial statements. Therefore, if you were to trade this as a short at your own risk, discretion is advised and you should always pick your battles.\nPrice Targets\nOn the basis of volatility through SQ's ATR it is possible that SQ could move to a low of approximately $100 by the end of the year, moving in favor 40% of the time. This aligns with my year end 2021 price if you remove Bitcoin entirely from the equation.\nSource: Author (SQ ATR Calculator)\nHowever, it would not be sensible to do this as it is part of their revenue for the time being, no matter how high Bitcoin volumes were in the start of 2021 and how low they may be at the end of the year.\nI do expect the stock to fall again and retest $200, possibly breaking down to $160. Though it is very difficult to determine a valuation with SQ, mainly because the valuation is derived from Bitcoin revenues, and also the perceived value by funds and the market in the future adoption of the asset.\nIf the market begins to perceive Bitcoin again as irrelevant, I would expect SQ to slowly sell off to between $150 and $160 (-37% downside) with a low probability that it will rally past $300 (25% upside).\nRisks\nWith respect to SQ the following risks should be noted.\nThe company is growing, whether you like SQ or not. The main questions are: Will the market value Bitcoin on any realistic basis? How much is it growing with and without Bitcoin? What is the potential future growth with and without Bitcoin? And does the market believe it, or for that matter care?\nIf the Bitcoin fades from relevancy, and judging by Google Trends, it is more likely than it is not, it is not outlandish to assume that SQ will suffer as a result of this and over the 2H 2021 and take a substantial hit to revenue estimates. However, if Bitcoin adoption increases and negative news fades, since this is a growth company, it could simply continue rallying.\nFurther, consumer spending patterns are producing mixed data, and above I have presented a bear case. This could easily turn the other way if people's behavior changes, such as applying for jobs which will increase spending in the economy and hopefully produce small business growth and increase small business optimism and expansion, which is very beneficial for SQ as a cyclical business in the payment processing space.\nAgain, caution is necessary, though I do think that future growth of the company is priced in and there is a higher risk to holders of SQ to the downside than to the upside.\nSummary\nSQ is a high growth company with some potential positive points in the long run; however, its valuation is highly questionable due to its high revenue estimates predominantly derived from Bitcoin transactions and not bottom-line earnings growth.\nFrom a quantitative perspective, it looks good amongst its peers but upon further examination it appears to be extremely overvalued as future growth, at least for 2021, may be derived from Bitcoin. Further, its Cash App adoption statistics may not continue to see the same run rate going forward without continued government stimulus.\nAdditionally, it faces several potential macroeconomic hurdles with respect to small business exposure, lending competitors, consumer transaction competitors, Bitcoin legislation and softening retail demand.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896854722,"gmtCreate":1628571437566,"gmtModify":1631893690713,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Whattt","listText":"Whattt","text":"Whattt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896854722","repostId":"1152604328","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152173202,"gmtCreate":1625278401906,"gmtModify":1633941841202,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","listText":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","text":"Please like and comment!Thank you!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152173202","repostId":"1114445293","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1114445293","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625277820,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1114445293?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-03 10:03","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1114445293","media":"Barron's","summary":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguish","content":"<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Robinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRobinhood’s IPO Could Be a Sign the Stock Market Has Peaked<blockquote>Robinhood 的 IPO 可能是股市见顶的标志</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-03 10:03</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.</p><p><blockquote>正如一句老话所说，没有什么比过度更成功了。直到它消失，这一直是市场周期的显著特点，最引人注目的是，在本世纪，这一直是市场周期的显著特点。与去年大流行病引发的爆发不同，2000 年网络泡沫破裂和 2008 年金融危机的标志是急于抓住时机和投资者资金的公司进行首次公开募股。</blockquote></p><p> All of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.</p><p><blockquote>所有这一切都将成为本周期敲钟事件的序幕--在线经纪商 Robinhood 的首次公开募股。该文件已于上周提交给美国证券交易委员会。这里讨论了这家声称要实现投资民主化的新贵（在此过程中，经纪业务的自律机构 Finra 对其处以创纪录的 7000 万美元罚款）的财务细节，但 S-1 文件中深埋在了几个要点之中。</blockquote></p><p> Customer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 3 月 31 日，客户资产比去年同期翻了两番多，达到 809 亿美元，其中最大的份额--约 651 亿美元--来自股票。期权的资产规模相对较小，只有 20 亿美元，但却创造了 3 月份季度 4.204 亿美元交易收入的近一半（1.979 亿美元）。尽管股票资产是期权资产的 40 倍，但股票仍产生了 1.333 亿美元的收入。加密货币收入总计 8760 万美元，客户加密资产总计 116 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> While Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 Robinhood 通过让资金有限的新手投资者购买自己喜欢的股票的部分股份，向他们开放市场，但这并不是它最大的业务。相反，投机性期权交易在今年年初呈爆炸式增长，尤其是在 YOLO（You Only Live Once）人群中，他们愿意在 Reddit 上热议的廉价、即将到期的股票评级上下注几美元。</blockquote></p><p> There are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?</p><p><blockquote>有迹象表明，随着经济重新开放和恢复到大流行前的正常状态（新冠病例在稳步下降后有所上升），冬季达到顶峰的疯狂交易已经有所缓解。在 Robinhood 这样的经纪平台上交易加密货币可能会更简单，但 DeFi（去中心化金融）的优势不就是根本不需要中介机构吗？</blockquote></p><p> Bulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的看涨者将押注于其独立交易模式的持续增长，而不是投资者通过顾问使用被动资金，文件对此嗤之以鼻。该券商承诺将为其客户预留高达 35% 的 IPO 资金，这些客户往往是热情的买家，更重要的是，他们会在动荡时期用 “钻石手 ”抓住他们。</blockquote></p><p> And, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions of<i>The Big Short</i>, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.</p><p><blockquote>迈克尔·伯里告诉我们的同事康纳·史密斯，事实上，未来可能会出现动荡，甚至更糟的情况。伯里，书籍和电影版中的关键人物<i>大空头</i>在次级抵押贷款崩溃之前，他通过做空房地产市场赢得了一大笔钱。最近，他曾是 GameStop（股票代码：GME）的早期看涨者，但在 2020 年第四季度，在围绕原始备忘录股票的狂热兴起之前，他获利了结。现在，他警告说，这场热潮将以泪水告终。</blockquote></p><p> “I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在一封电子邮件中告诉康纳：”我不知道像这样的备忘录股票什么时候会崩盘，但我们可能不用等太久，因为我相信零售人群已经完全投入到这个主题中，华尔街也纷纷效仿。“我们已经没有新的资金可以赶上潮流了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,<i>Barron’s</i>Andrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.</p><p><blockquote>Robinhood 的发行并不是第一次可能成为市场顶级事件的股票发售。早在2007年年中，<i>巴伦</i>安德鲁·巴里 (Andrew Bary) 正是这样称呼黑石集团 (BX) 的 IPO，就在对过度次级贷款的担忧席卷全球货币市场的几周前，以及道琼斯工业平均指数在次年 10 月达到峰值的几个月前。</blockquote></p><p> And who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,<i>Barron’s</i>published itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.</p><p><blockquote>谁能忘记20世纪90年代末古怪的IPO游行，这些IPO预示着互联网的潜力，但缺乏盈利或收入，甚至缺乏可行的商业计划？到2000年3月，<i>巴伦</i>发表了开创性的封面故事，揭示了这些网络宠儿正在迅速烧钱。就在那个月，纳斯达克综合指数开始发声；到2002年10月，该指数将下降近80%。</blockquote></p><p> While Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&amp;P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.</p><p><blockquote>虽然伯里警告说，备忘录股票可能会从大幅上涨的水平崩盘，一些公司利用了这一水平发行了高估值股票，但整体市场--目前的交易价格约为未来 12 个月预计市盈率的 21.5 倍--尚未接近过去周期的泡沫水平。但市场策略师和机构投资者的调查认为上涨空间不大，标准普尔 500 指数的年终目标平均约为 4200 点，低于周四收盘价的 4319 点。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And while it’s always dangerous to say this, it<i>is</i>different this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.</p><p><blockquote>虽然这么说总是很危险，但<i>是</i>这次与2000年和2008年不同。在那些年的崩盘之前，美联储已经收紧政策一段时间了，导致收益率曲线从平坦到负倾斜。短期国债收益率被推高于长期国债收益率，导致债券市场预测经济将陷入困境。</blockquote></p><p> Now, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.</p><p><blockquote>现在，相比之下，美联储才刚刚开始谈论减少对国债和机构抵押贷款支持证券的大规模购买。这将为美联储的主要联邦基金目标利率最早在 2022 年首次上调做准备，目前该利率处于 0% 至 0.25% 的最低区间，可能要到 2023 年。</blockquote></p><p> The yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.</p><p><blockquote>根据圣路易斯联储的数据，过去三个月收益率曲线有所趋平，两年期和十年期国债之间的利差从 3 月 29 日的 1.59 个百分点收窄至 1.23 个百分点（这仍然是宽松政策的迹象）。</blockquote></p><p> But there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic book<i>Irrational Exuberance</i>.</p><p><blockquote>但任何市场狂热也有心理因素在起作用。“大多数投资者似乎也将股市视为一种自然力量。他们没有完全意识到，作为一个群体，他们自己决定着市场的水平，”诺贝尔奖获得者罗伯特·席勒在他如今已成为经典著作的中心人物。<i>非理性繁荣</i>.</blockquote></p><p> “In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”</p><p><blockquote>“简而言之，价格水平在某种程度上是由一个自我实现的预言推动的，这个预言是基于广大大小投资者持有的类似预感，并得到了新闻媒体的强化，而新闻媒体往往满足于认可这种投资者诱导的传统智慧。”</blockquote></p><p> Readers can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has been<i>Barron’s</i>credo in the century since its founding.</p><p><blockquote>读者可以权衡交易员的预感与 Robinhood IPO 的相关性。至于后一种关于媒体的说法，我们表示反对；相反的意见而不是传统的智慧<i>巴伦</i>信条自成立以来的一个世纪。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/analyst-explains-why-netflix-should-sell-ads-51624987059","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1114445293","content_text":"Nothing succeeds like excess, as the old quip goes. Until it doesn’t, which has been the distinguishing aspect of market cycles forever and, most dramatically, in this century. Unlike last year’s pandemic-induced paroxysm, the 2000 bursting of the dot-com bubble and the 2008 financial crisis were marked by initial public offerings by companies eager to seize the moment—and investors’ money.\nAll of which is prologue to what could shape up as this cycle’s bell-ringing event, theinitial public offering of Robinhood, the online broker that pioneered zero commissions and hooked a new generation on investing and trading. Thepaperwork was filedwith the SEC this past week. Financial details about the upstart that purports to democratize investing (and, in the process, was hit with a record$70 million fine by Finra, the brokerage business’s self-regulatory body) are discussedhere, but a few salient points are buried deep in the S-1 filing.\nCustomer assets more than quadrupled, to $80.9 billion, on March 31 from the total a year earlier, with the lion’s share—some $65.1 billion—accounted for by equities. Options comprised a relatively small $2 billion in assets, but generated nearly half ($197.9 million) of the March quarter’s $420.4 million in transactions revenue. Stocks produced $133.3 million in revenue, even though assets in equities were 40 times as large as those in options. Revenue from cryptocurrencies totaled $87.6 million, with customers’ crypto assets totaling $11.6 billion.\nWhile Robinhood makes much of opening the market to neophyte investors with limited means by letting them buy fractional shares of their favorite stocks, that’s not its biggest business. Instead, it’s speculative options trading, which exploded early this year especially among the YOLO (You Only Live Once) crowd willing to stake a few bucks on cheap, about-to-expire calls of stocks talked up on Reddit.\nThere are signs that the frenzied trading, which peaked during the winter, has eased with the reopening of the economy and the return to the prepandemic normal (and with it an uptick in Covid cases after a steady decline). Trading crypto might be simpler on a brokerage platform like Robinhood, but wasn’t the advantage of DeFi (decentralized finance) supposed to be that intermediaries wouldn’t be needed at all?\nBulls on Robinhood would be betting on continued growth of its independent trading model, rather than investors using passive funds through advisors, which the filing derides. The broker pledged to reserve up to 35% of its IPO for its customers, who are apt to be enthusiastic buyers and, more importantly, hold onto them with “diamond hands” through volatile times.\nAnd, indeed, turbulence, or worse, could lie ahead,Michael Burry told our colleague Connor Smith. Burry, a key player in both the book and film versions ofThe Big Short, won a fortune by betting against the housing market before the subprime mortgage collapse. More recently, he was an early bull onGamestop(ticker: GME), but took his profits in 2020’s fourth quarter before the frenzy around the original meme stock took off. Now he’s warning that the craze will end in tears.\n“I don’t know when meme stocks such as this will crash, but we probably do not have to wait too long, as I believe the retail crowd is fully invested in this theme, and Wall Street has jumped on the coattails,” he told Connor in an email. “We’re running out of new money available to jump on the bandwagon.”\nThe Robinhood offering wouldn’t be the first stock sale that could be a top-of-the-market event. Back in mid-2007,Barron’sAndrew Bary calledthe IPO ofBlackstone Group(BX) precisely that, just weeks before concerns about excesses of subprime lending rumbled through the global money markets and months before theDow Jones Industrial Averagepeaked the following October.\nAnd who could forget the parade of wacky IPOs in the late 1990s that presaged the potential of the internet, but lacked earnings or revenue or even a viable business plan? By March 2000,Barron’spublished itsseminal cover storyrevealing that these dot-com darlings were rapidly burning cash. That very month marked theNasdaq Composite’speak; the index would fall nearly 80% by October 2002.\nWhile Burry warns of a crash in meme stocks from their vastly elevated levels, which some of the companies have exploited by issuing richly valued shares, the overall market—now trading at about 21.5 times estimated earnings for the next 12 months—hasn’t approached the bubble levels of past cycles. But surveys of market strategists and institutional investors see little upside, with year-end targets averaging around 4200 on theS&P 500—shy of Thursday’s close of 4319.\nAnd while it’s always dangerous to say this, itisdifferent this time around from 2000 and 2008. Ahead of crashes in those years, the Federal Reserve had been tightening policy for some time, resulting in a flat-to-negatively sloped yield curve. Shorter-term Treasury yields were pushed above longer-term ones, leading the bond market to predict that the economy was headed for the rocks.\nNow, in contrast, the Fed has only begun talking about talking about reducing its massive purchases of Treasury and agency mortgage-backed securities. That would be preparation for the initial liftoff of the Fed’s key federal-funds target rate, currently in a rock-bottom 0% to 0.25% range, in 2022 at the earliest and maybe not until 2023.\nThe yield curve has flattened a bit in the past three months, with thespread between the two- and 10-year notenarrowing to 1.23 percentage points (still a sign of an accommodative policy), from 1.59 points on March 29, according to the St. Louis Fed.\nBut there is also a psychological element at play in any market frenzy. “Most investors also seem to view the stock market as a force of nature itself. They do not fully realize that they themselves, as a group, determine the level of the market,” Nobel laureate Robert Shiller wrote in his now-classic bookIrrational Exuberance.\n“In short, the price level is driven to a certain extent by a self-fulfilling prophecy, based on similar hunches held by a vast cross-section of large and small investors and reinforced by news media that are often content to ratify this investor-induced conventional wisdom.”\nReaders can weigh the relevance of the point about traders’ hunches to the Robinhood IPO. As for the latter statement regarding the media, we demur; contrary opinion rather than conventional wisdom has beenBarron’scredo in the century since its founding.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":553,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180882042,"gmtCreate":1623198528786,"gmtModify":1634035957246,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment","listText":"Pls like and comment","text":"Pls like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180882042","repostId":"2141126527","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112865739,"gmtCreate":1622861095121,"gmtModify":1634097276360,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112865739","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>美国 IPO 前一周：数字支付、心理健康服务等多元化 8 IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</li><li>支付平台 Marqeta 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八次IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>市场</b>(MQ) 计划以 124 亿美元的市值筹集 10 亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta 发展迅速，其客户中包括 Affirm (AFRM) 和 DoorDash (DASH) 等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中国在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ) 计划以 82 亿美元的市值筹集 8.64 亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，根据MAUs，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>LifeStance健康</b>(LFST) 计划以 61 亿美元的市值筹集 6.4 亿美元。LifeStance表示，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，截至2021年3月31日，在27个州的73个MSA雇佣了3300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管息税前利润在2021年第一季度变为负值，但该公司仍表现出增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>星期一网</b>(MNDY) 计划以 68 亿美元的市值筹集 4.9 亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建适合其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce 和 Zoom 计划同时投资 1.5 亿美元进行私募。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>口袋</b>（任务）计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利且增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA) 计划以 21 亿美元的市值筹集 2.5 亿美元。该公司的 Zeta 营销平台利用身份数据，通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta 盈利，为 1,000 多名客户提供服务，到 2020 年将提供大约 5 亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>在线奢侈品市场<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) 计划以 7.73 亿美元的市值筹集 1.12 亿美元。1stDibs连接古董、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020 年，该市场在过去一年中有超过 58,000 名买家进行了购买，平均每年总购买金额超过 5,500 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME) 计划以 19 亿美元的市值筹集 4300 万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年市场份额为32%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将对 6 家公司进行街头调查，多达 11 家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数年初至今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital 的 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）追踪该指数，持有量最大的 ETF 包括Zoom Video (ZM) 和优步 (UBER)。Renaissance International IPO 指数今年迄今下跌 1.1%，而 ACWX 指数上涨 10.5%。Renaissance Capital 的国际 IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）追踪该指数，持有的 ETF 包括 Nexi 和 EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.",".DJI":"道琼斯","BZ":"BOSS直聘","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ZME":"掌门教育","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp."},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"BZ":0.9,"MQ":0.9,"DIBS":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"LFST":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":818,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103236542,"gmtCreate":1619785460086,"gmtModify":1634209958129,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment my post please!","listText":"Please like and comment my post please!","text":"Please like and comment my post please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103236542","repostId":"1180935504","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180935504","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1619785386,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180935504?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-04-30 20:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"JPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply chain<blockquote>摩根大通开发部门寻求为疫苗供应链提供资金</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180935504","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in a","content":"<p>JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）的发展金融机构旨在每年为超过 1000 亿美元的活动提供资金，该机构正在寻求支持更多供应链交易，以帮助发展中国家抗击 COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>疫情之后，印度等一些新兴市场在疫苗和其他医疗设备的供应方面举步维艰。</blockquote></p><p> \"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.</p><p><blockquote>该机构董事总经理 Faheen Allibhoy 表示：“我们希望进行更多以发展和影响力为核心的交易。”</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy说，疫苗供应链、注重性别的贷款、水和粮食安全以及气候智能型农业是该机构将关注的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发展金融机构成立于去年，旨在每年通过投资银行交易为发展活动提供超过 1000 亿美元的资金，并由其市场业务提供额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，该机构将437笔交易归类为发展融资，总价值1460亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它帮助摩洛哥和多米尼加共和国政府发行债券，筹集的资金分别用于帮助受疫情影响的公司和为国家预算提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy 表示，2021 年，该银行还将重点关注更多交易，其中该银行充当融资结构代理，并于 2 月份完成了在非洲的第一笔交易，即涉及 Liquid Telecom 的 6.2 亿美元交易。</blockquote></p><p> This month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.</p><p><blockquote>本月，世行宣布计划在 10 年内提供超过 2.5 万亿美元的融资和便利，以推进应对气候变化和促进可持续发展的长期解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJPMorgan development arm seeks to fund vaccine supply chain<blockquote>摩根大通开发部门寻求为疫苗供应链提供资金</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-04-30 20:23</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通（纽约证券交易所股票代码：JPM）的发展金融机构旨在每年为超过 1000 亿美元的活动提供资金，该机构正在寻求支持更多供应链交易，以帮助发展中国家抗击 COVID-19。</blockquote></p><p> Some emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>疫情之后，印度等一些新兴市场在疫苗和其他医疗设备的供应方面举步维艰。</blockquote></p><p> \"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.</p><p><blockquote>该机构董事总经理 Faheen Allibhoy 表示：“我们希望进行更多以发展和影响力为核心的交易。”</blockquote></p><p> The vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy说，疫苗供应链、注重性别的贷款、水和粮食安全以及气候智能型农业是该机构将关注的领域。</blockquote></p><p> The JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通发展金融机构成立于去年，旨在每年通过投资银行交易为发展活动提供超过 1000 亿美元的资金，并由其市场业务提供额外资金。</blockquote></p><p> In 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.</p><p><blockquote>2020年，该机构将437笔交易归类为发展融资，总价值1460亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> It has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.</p><p><blockquote>它帮助摩洛哥和多米尼加共和国政府发行债券，筹集的资金分别用于帮助受疫情影响的公司和为国家预算提供资金。</blockquote></p><p> In 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.</p><p><blockquote>Allibhoy 表示，2021 年，该银行还将重点关注更多交易，其中该银行充当融资结构代理，并于 2 月份完成了在非洲的第一笔交易，即涉及 Liquid Telecom 的 6.2 亿美元交易。</blockquote></p><p> This month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.</p><p><blockquote>本月，世行宣布计划在 10 年内提供超过 2.5 万亿美元的融资和便利，以推进应对气候变化和促进可持续发展的长期解决方案。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JPM":"摩根大通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180935504","content_text":"JPMorgan (NYSE:JPM)'s development finance institution which aims to fund more than $100 billion in activities per year is looking to back more supply chain deals to help fight COVID-19 in developing countries, a bank executive told Reuters.\nSome emerging markets such as India have struggled with supplies of vaccines and other medical equipment in the wake of the pandemic.\n\"We'd like to do more transactions that have development and impact at their heart,\" said Faheen Allibhoy, managing director of the institution.\nThe vaccine supply chain, gender-focused lending, water and food security, and climate-smart agriculture are areas where the institution will look to focus, Allibhoy said.\nThe JPMorgan Development Finance Institution was set up last year and aims to fund more than $100 billion annually in development activities from investment banking deals, with extra contributions from its markets businesses.\nIn 2020, the institution qualified 437 transactions as development finance worth a total of $146 billion.\nIt has helped with bonds for the governments of Morocco and the Dominican Republic, where the funds raised are aimed at helping companies affected by the pandemic and financing the state budget, respectively.\nIn 2021 it is also focusing on more deals where the bank acts as a financing structuring agent, having in February completed its first in Africa, a $620 million deal involving Liquid Telecom, Allibhoy said.\nThis month, the bank announced plans to finance and facilitate more than $2.5 trillion over 10 years to advance long-term solutions that fight climate change and contribute to sustainable development.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124878650,"gmtCreate":1624760249070,"gmtModify":1633948991162,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","listText":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","text":"Oh dear, another fall in price?Please like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124878650","repostId":"1121141266","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121141266","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624760169,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121141266?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-27 10:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121141266","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.Tesla  apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”The notice from","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla ‘Recall’ in China to Impact Nearly 300,000 Vehicles. What to Know.<blockquote>特斯拉在华 “召回 ”影响近 30 万辆汽车。要知道什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-27 10:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局周五晚些时候表示，由于辅助驾驶功能出现问题，特斯拉将不得不 “召回 ”近 30 万辆中国制造或进口汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）在中国社交媒体网站微博上道歉。“据《华尔街日报》报道，该公司表示：”对于此次召回给所有车主带来的不便，我们深表歉意。“特斯拉将继续严格按照国家要求提高安全性。”</blockquote></p><p> The notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service&nbsp;AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question from<i>Barron’s</i>on whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.</p><p><blockquote>据法新社报道，中国监管机构的通知称，巡航控制系统可能会意外启动，从而导致碰撞。报告称，特斯拉将能够远程为受影响的客户更新软件，因此他们不必归还汽车。监管机构没有立即回答来自<i>巴伦</i>这个问题是否已经导致了中国的碰撞。</blockquote></p><p> China is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by&nbsp;more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.</p><p><blockquote>中国是特斯拉的一个重要市场，该公司约 30% 的汽车在中国销售。中国的销售最近一直不稳定，4 月份出现下降，随后 5 月份的数据更加有希望。自 2019 年以来，特斯拉一直在上海工厂生产汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with&nbsp;a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.</p><p><blockquote>最近，一些中国客户对特斯拉的质量和服务提出了投诉，并在 4 月份的上海车展上举行了抗议活动。特斯拉在四月份就其处理客户投诉的方式向客户道歉。</blockquote></p><p> The issues are part of&nbsp;a larger public relations problem&nbsp;that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was&nbsp;on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.</p><p><blockquote>这些问题是更大的公共关系问题的一部分，可能会给特斯拉股价带来压力，该股在 2020 年上涨八倍后，今年已下跌 5%。也就是说，该股在过去一周一直在上涨，这可能与对季度末汽车交付的乐观情绪有关。特斯拉尚未公布第二季度财报发布日期。</blockquote></p><p> It’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六上午没有立即回应置评请求。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-recall-china-51624718932?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121141266","content_text":"Tesla will have to “recall” nearly 300,000 vehicles made in China or imported there due to a problem with an assisted driving function, China’s State Administration for Market Regulation said late on Friday.\nTesla (ticker: TSLA) apologized on Weibo, a Chinese social media site. “We apologize for the inconvenience caused by this recall to all car owners,” the company said, according toThe Wall Street Journal. “Tesla will continue to improve safety in strict accordance with national requirements.”\nThe notice from the Chinese regulator said that the cruise control system could be activated by accident, which could cause a collision, according to newswire service AFP. Tesla will be able to update the software for impacted customers remotely, so they will not have to return their cars, the report said. The regulator did not immediately answer a question fromBarron’son whether the issue had already led to collisions in China.\nChina is a key market for Tesla, which sells about 30% of its vehicles there. Sales in China have been spotty lately, with a decline in April followed by more promising May numbers. Tesla has been making vehicles at a Shanghai plant since 2019.\nLately, there have been complaints from some Chinese customers about Tesla’s quality and service, with a protest at the Shanghai Auto Show in April. Tesla apologized to customers in April for how it dealt with customer complaints.\nThe issues are part of a larger public relations problem that may be weighing on Tesla stock, which is down 5% this year after rising eight-fold in 2020. That said, the stock was on an upswing over the past week, perhaps related to optimism about end-of-quarter vehicle deliveries. Tesla has not announced the date of its second-quarter earnings report yet.\nIt’s not clear if the issue in China could also impact vehicles in the U.S. Tesla did not immediately respond to a request for comment on Saturday morning.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":167161639,"gmtCreate":1624252720421,"gmtModify":1634008833024,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","listText":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","text":"Pls like and comment :) make this the top!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/167161639","repostId":"2145108800","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169665558,"gmtCreate":1623833535374,"gmtModify":1634027388452,"author":{"id":"3548519664875261","authorId":"3548519664875261","name":"duhduhduh","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3d0b0a451777c580da7e35ef36023d93","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3548519664875261","authorIdStr":"3548519664875261"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment pls","listText":"Like and comment pls","text":"Like and comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169665558","repostId":"2143760952","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":500,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}