HYYOONG的个人主页 - 老虎社区

HYYOONG

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2021-09-03

Fast fast shoot up ah!!

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2021-08-31

Zoom down!!

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2021-08-27

We need the technoking!!!

Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>

2021-07-29

Ready player one!!

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2021-07-10

Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]

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2021-06-30

How about salary spike?

Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>

2021-06-29

S&P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?

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2021-06-27

No no, to the moon!!

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2021-06-26

Crypto winter…

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2021-06-21

Housing market as tight as my wallet?

Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Buy the dip!

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2021-06-18

Go go go

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2021-06-18

I think i better run instead

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2021-06-17

How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well

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2021-06-16

Witcher 4!!

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-15

High to the moon!!

Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于拉力模式：这是它能走多高</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]

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2021-06-12

Scare no money more

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2021-06-11

It will move to there eventually

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2021-06-09

On the moon?

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technoking!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810728834","repostId":"1161561973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161561973","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629991651,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1161561973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161561973","media":"investing.com","summary":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling","content":"<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能否再次触及900美元？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investing.com</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克：TSLA）的股价再次上涨。在从1月25日盘中触及的900.40美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了17%...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">investing.com</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161561973","content_text":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past three months, outperforming the benchmark NASDAQ 100 Index.\nThe biggest question Tesla bulls now have is, whether, on top of the current gains, can the EV manufacturer's stock push through back to the all-time high of $900 this year?\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nGiven the highly volatile nature of the stock, it’s tough to predict whether the current Tesla rally has legs. But it’s important to note that the outlook for its car sales is becoming more uncertain than it was a year ago.\nFirst, the global chip shortage continues to cast doubt on Tesla’s ambitious sales targets for 2021. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk highlighted challenges that come from the unpredictability of chip supplies and the hurdles he expects in ramping production at two new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, later this year.\nTesla again delayed delivery of its semi-trailer truck—already two years late. The first trucks of this type are now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as management trying to focus on getting new factories online. The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues.\nThis is what Musk told analysts last month:\n\n “While we’re making cars at full speed, the global chip-shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rate will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.”\n\nRegulatory Probe\nBesides the risks to the market’s earnings consensus for this fiscal year, Tesla is facing a regulatory probe that could result in a massive recall.\nThe U.S.opened a formal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system last week after almost a dozen collisions involving first-responder vehicles. In the last seven years, Tesla has charged clients thousands of dollars for this feature.\nThe probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014 model year onward. The regulator—which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls—said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.\nBloomberg reported that Tesla has been criticized for years for labeling the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed this higher-level functionality feature as Full Self-Driving Capability. In reality, Autopilot is a driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times.\nTesla now sells that package of features—often referred to as FSD—for $10,000 or $199 a month.\nAfter the NHTSA launched of the probe, two Democratic senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to also investigate Tesla over the company’s advertising of its Autopilot and FSD technology.\nIn a letter last Wednesday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts asked FTC Chair Lina Khan to examine whether Tesla used “potentially deceptive and unfair practices” in its marketing of those technologies.\n“We fear that Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD features are not as mature and reliable as the company pitches to the public,” they wrote, pointing to comments from Musk, as well as a 2019 YouTube video entitled “Full Self-Driving” and has a link to Tesla’s site.\nHighlighting these risks and how they could affect Tesla’s current stock price, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that there are many analysts who continue to remain bullish on TSLA. Piper Sandler reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and its price target of $1,200 this month.\nIn a note, analysts Alexander Potter and Winnie Dong said:\n\n “Bottom line: We still really like this stock. Tesla is still the driving force behind higher [battery electric vehicle] penetration globally.”\n\nBottom Line\nIt’s difficult to predict the future course for Tesla stock given the huge amount of speculative interest in this name. But recent developments show that it will be quite hard for the EV automaker to exceed expectations in this tough manufacturing environment.\nInvestors should trade this name with caution.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3325,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801694864,"gmtCreate":1627513933458,"gmtModify":1633764358314,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ready player one!!","listText":"Ready player one!!","text":"Ready player one!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801694864","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2239,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141707836,"gmtCreate":1625889808525,"gmtModify":1633936331842,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141707836","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1259,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153970239,"gmtCreate":1625008066321,"gmtModify":1633946034706,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How about salary spike?","listText":"How about salary spike?","text":"How about salary spike?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153970239","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180006824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150583447,"gmtCreate":1624921659989,"gmtModify":1631884082173,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","listText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","text":"S&P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150583447","repostId":"1143737614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2082,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124897127,"gmtCreate":1624757595869,"gmtModify":1633949063230,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No no, to the moon!!","listText":"No no, to the moon!!","text":"No no, to the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124897127","repostId":"1172737444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2115,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125643971,"gmtCreate":1624672947193,"gmtModify":1633949787709,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Crypto winter…","listText":"Crypto winter…","text":"Crypto winter…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125643971","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164556580,"gmtCreate":1624231220240,"gmtModify":1634009344239,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","listText":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","text":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164556580","repostId":"1149451535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149451535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021899,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149451535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149451535","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，那些按兵不动的潜在房屋卖家终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂的房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台Haus的数据，6月初美国待售房屋数量较5月同期增长6.7%。这是自去年Covid-19封锁以来的最大增幅。在接受调查的100个大都市地区中，有54个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“卖家说，‘是时候了，让我们赚钱吧，’”匹兹堡EXP Realty的经纪人朱莉·韦尔特(Julie Welter)说，该公司的供应量增幅最大。“随着世界再次开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适度。”</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场与正常情况相去甚远，库存仍较上年同期下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着竞购战从东海岸到西海岸爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致稀缺的一个问题：卖家留在原地，因为很难找到其他东西来购买。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现稀缺的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中位数同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得了股权。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让那些不愿意让家庭购物者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛的卖家走了出来。Haus首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林(Ralph McLaughlin)表示，一些人还渴望搬到离新冠疫情让他们远离太久的家庭更近的地方。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划，”麦克劳克林说。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的20%股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的Redfin经纪人Shauna Pendleton表示，今年已有35名卖家与她讨论过挂牌事宜。她说，这大约是2020年同期的两倍。根据Redfin的数据，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区之一，6月初房价同比上涨42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“这些人大多是退休人员，”彭德尔顿在谈到她的新卖家客户时说道。“封锁让人们对自己想要住在哪里有了全新的认识。而且他们想念家人。”</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Haus的数据，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从5月初的极低水平攀升了30%，该地区不包括合同中的房屋。其数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）表示，由于房屋价格远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新挂牌房源不断增加，但房屋很快就找到了买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计美国房价增长到今年年底将放缓至10%以下。他表示，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是在借贷成本开始上升的情况下。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到2023年底将加息两次，比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林说：“导致新供应的同一股力量可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的能力的同一股力量。”“这主要是价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋的市场也可能正在缓解。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。住宅建筑数据提供商和咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫(Ali Wolf)表示，现在一些买家感到有点震惊。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5月份调查的建筑商中，约40%将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于一个月前的约20%。她说，结果，新房市场已经从“难以忍受”的火爆变成了刚刚火爆。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理人通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty的经纪人亚历克斯·赖特(Alex Wright)表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经60多岁了，想搬到中西部，离她的祖母更近。奥斯汀不再是同一个地方了。她说，它变得越来越贵，从墨西哥玉米卷到咖啡，所有东西都有一条线，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一个家仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“竞争仍然非常激烈，”她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，那些按兵不动的潜在房屋卖家终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂的房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台Haus的数据，6月初美国待售房屋数量较5月同期增长6.7%。这是自去年Covid-19封锁以来的最大增幅。在接受调查的100个大都市地区中，有54个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“卖家说，‘是时候了，让我们赚钱吧，’”匹兹堡EXP Realty的经纪人朱莉·韦尔特(Julie Welter)说，该公司的供应量增幅最大。“随着世界再次开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适度。”</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场与正常情况相去甚远，库存仍较上年同期下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着竞购战从东海岸到西海岸爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致稀缺的一个问题：卖家留在原地，因为很难找到其他东西来购买。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现稀缺的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中位数同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得了股权。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让那些不愿意让家庭购物者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛的卖家走了出来。Haus首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林(Ralph McLaughlin)表示，一些人还渴望搬到离新冠疫情让他们远离太久的家庭更近的地方。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划，”麦克劳克林说。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的20%股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的Redfin经纪人Shauna Pendleton表示，今年已有35名卖家与她讨论过挂牌事宜。她说，这大约是2020年同期的两倍。根据Redfin的数据，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区之一，6月初房价同比上涨42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“这些人大多是退休人员，”彭德尔顿在谈到她的新卖家客户时说道。“封锁让人们对自己想要住在哪里有了全新的认识。而且他们想念家人。”</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>根据Haus的数据，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从5月初的极低水平攀升了30%，该地区不包括合同中的房屋。其数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）表示，由于房屋价格远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新挂牌房源不断增加，但房屋很快就找到了买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计美国房价增长到今年年底将放缓至10%以下。他表示，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是在借贷成本开始上升的情况下。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到2023年底将加息两次，比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林说：“导致新供应的同一股力量可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的能力的同一股力量。”“这主要是价格上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋的市场也可能正在缓解。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。住宅建筑数据提供商和咨询公司Zonda的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫(Ali Wolf)表示，现在一些买家感到有点震惊。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5月份调查的建筑商中，约40%将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于一个月前的约20%。她说，结果，新房市场已经从“难以忍受”的火爆变成了刚刚火爆。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理人通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty的经纪人亚历克斯·赖特(Alex Wright)表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经60多岁了，想搬到中西部，离她的祖母更近。奥斯汀不再是同一个地方了。她说，它变得越来越贵，从墨西哥玉米卷到咖啡，所有东西都有一条线，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一个家仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“竞争仍然非常激烈，”她说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149451535","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.\nThe number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.\n“Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”\nThe housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.\nThroughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.\nThe end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.\n“People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”\nShauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.\n“These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”\nThe Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.\nWith houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.\nCooling Prices\nMcLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.\n“The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”\nThe market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.\nAbout 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.\nIn Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.\nWright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.\nWright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.\n“It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2489,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162671433,"gmtCreate":1624063363222,"gmtModify":1634023417975,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the dip!","listText":"Buy the dip!","text":"Buy the 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instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168174171","repostId":"1100514296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":573,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163202635,"gmtCreate":1623885306227,"gmtModify":1634026588044,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","listText":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","text":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163202635","repostId":"2144270718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160628497,"gmtCreate":1623796775919,"gmtModify":1634028220441,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Witcher 4!!","listText":"Witcher 4!!","text":"Witcher 4!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160628497","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184207116,"gmtCreate":1623714908935,"gmtModify":1634029793039,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"High to the moon!!","listText":"High to the moon!!","text":"High to the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184207116","repostId":"1195129456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195129456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623714452,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1195129456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 07:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于拉力模式：这是它能走多高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195129456","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.Even with strong earnings and an impressive GTC event , Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.For Nvidia though, shares finally broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to","content":"<p>Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，英伟达股价一直在飙升，轻松创下历史新高。从这里能走多远？</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia&nbsp;shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达股价飙升，该股终于给多头带来了值得欢呼的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>就像大多数大型科技公司一样，Nvidia在9月初达到顶峰，达到每股约588美元。我们曾出现过高于该水平的反弹，但没有一次反弹是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite a&nbsp;shortage in semiconductors&nbsp;keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market&nbsp;keeping demand high&nbsp;for mining-specific chips.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体短缺导致需求居高不下。尽管加密货币挖矿市场对挖矿专用芯片的需求仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Even with strong earnings&nbsp;and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.</p><p><blockquote>即使有强劲的盈利和令人印象深刻的GTC活动（管理层再次更新了高于普遍预期的指引），英伟达股票仍无法上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Others like Apple&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊等其他公司也经历了同样的事情——强劲的运营和好于预期的业绩，但股价却停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> For Nvidia though, shares&nbsp;<i>finally</i>&nbsp;broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于英伟达来说，股票<i>终于</i>在公司最新财报发布后爆发。现在投资者正试图弄清楚这只股票能跑多远。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37425d9c63ee1f6f0517088f67194c9a\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.</p><p><blockquote>该公司5月中旬公布财报后，股价下跌一天。成长型股票仍处于熊市，尽管业绩强劲，投资者不确定是否应该购买英伟达。</blockquote></p><p> It took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>花了一天时间才弄清楚，但后来他们开始狼吞虎咽地吃股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a&nbsp;4-for-1 stock split&nbsp;coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着持续增长的推动以及7月20日4比1的股票分割，买家可能会继续提高这个名字的出价。这就是我们去年夏末在苹果和特斯拉身上看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这里的涨势一直很强劲，虽然英伟达股票一次休息了几天，但它在近一个月的时间里仍然没有测试10日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> As it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.</p><p><blockquote>就目前情况而言，从2021年起，股价从较大范围和较短范围均触及161.8%的延伸区域。此外，威廉姆斯%R读数存在一点分歧。</blockquote></p><p> These observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.</p><p><blockquote>这些观察让我在短期内对该股有点谨慎，但不是看跌。相反，它让我注意到一些潜在的盘整，老实说，在如此大的反弹之后，这将是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我看好英伟达。如果该股能够维持10日均线并徘徊在700美元附近，则为更高的价格打开了大门。具体来说，它将750美元至766美元保留在桌面上，后者在两倍范围扩展周围发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> At $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.</p><p><blockquote>分拆后，英伟达的交易价格为750美元，交易价格为187.50美元。这可能会在分裂后的世界中留下高达200美元的空间，在分裂前的世界中留下高达800美元的空间。</blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者或交易者来说，上涨261.8%至860美元附近似乎遥不可及，但如果Nvidia能够继续走高，我不排除未来出现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> On a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>如果收盘价低于690美元和10日移动平均线，我们可能会重新测试650美元的突破水平和/或21日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于拉力模式：这是它能走多高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于拉力模式：这是它能走多高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 07:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，英伟达股价一直在飙升，轻松创下历史新高。从这里能走多远？</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia&nbsp;shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达股价飙升，该股终于给多头带来了值得欢呼的东西。</blockquote></p><p> Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>就像大多数大型科技公司一样，Nvidia在9月初达到顶峰，达到每股约588美元。我们曾出现过高于该水平的反弹，但没有一次反弹是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite a&nbsp;shortage in semiconductors&nbsp;keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market&nbsp;keeping demand high&nbsp;for mining-specific chips.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体短缺导致需求居高不下。尽管加密货币挖矿市场对挖矿专用芯片的需求仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> Even with strong earnings&nbsp;and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.</p><p><blockquote>即使有强劲的盈利和令人印象深刻的GTC活动（管理层再次更新了高于普遍预期的指引），英伟达股票仍无法上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Others like Apple&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊等其他公司也经历了同样的事情——强劲的运营和好于预期的业绩，但股价却停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> For Nvidia though, shares&nbsp;<i>finally</i>&nbsp;broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于英伟达来说，股票<i>终于</i>在公司最新财报发布后爆发。现在投资者正试图弄清楚这只股票能跑多远。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37425d9c63ee1f6f0517088f67194c9a\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.</p><p><blockquote>该公司5月中旬公布财报后，股价下跌一天。成长型股票仍处于熊市，尽管业绩强劲，投资者不确定是否应该购买英伟达。</blockquote></p><p> It took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>花了一天时间才弄清楚，但后来他们开始狼吞虎咽地吃股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a&nbsp;4-for-1 stock split&nbsp;coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着持续增长的推动以及7月20日4比1的股票分割，买家可能会继续提高这个名字的出价。这就是我们去年夏末在苹果和特斯拉身上看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这里的涨势一直很强劲，虽然英伟达股票一次休息了几天，但它在近一个月的时间里仍然没有测试10日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> As it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.</p><p><blockquote>就目前情况而言，从2021年起，股价从较大范围和较短范围均触及161.8%的延伸区域。此外，威廉姆斯%R读数存在一点分歧。</blockquote></p><p> These observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.</p><p><blockquote>这些观察让我在短期内对该股有点谨慎，但不是看跌。相反，它让我注意到一些潜在的盘整，老实说，在如此大的反弹之后，这将是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我看好英伟达。如果该股能够维持10日均线并徘徊在700美元附近，则为更高的价格打开了大门。具体来说，它将750美元至766美元保留在桌面上，后者在两倍范围扩展周围发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> At $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.</p><p><blockquote>分拆后，英伟达的交易价格为750美元，交易价格为187.50美元。这可能会在分裂后的世界中留下高达200美元的空间，在分裂前的世界中留下高达800美元的空间。</blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者或交易者来说，上涨261.8%至860美元附近似乎遥不可及，但如果Nvidia能够继续走高，我不排除未来出现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> On a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>如果收盘价低于690美元和10日移动平均线，我们可能会重新测试650美元的突破水平和/或21日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-rally-new-highs-trading-061421\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-rally-new-highs-trading-061421","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195129456","content_text":"Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?\nNvidia shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.\nJust like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.\nThat’s despite a shortage in semiconductors keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market keeping demand high for mining-specific chips.\nEven with strong earnings and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.\nOthers like Apple and Amazon have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.\nFor Nvidia though, shares finally broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.\nTrading Nvidia\nDaily chart of Nvidia stock.\nShares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.\nIt took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.\nHowever, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a 4-for-1 stock split coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.\nIn any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.\nAs it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.\nThese observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.\nThat said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.\nAt $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.\nFor long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.\nOn a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":464,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185053822,"gmtCreate":1623628079166,"gmtModify":1634031102276,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185053822","repostId":"2142209295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":718,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188543032,"gmtCreate":1623456498826,"gmtModify":1634033034707,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Scare no money more","listText":"Scare no money more","text":"Scare no money more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188543032","repostId":"2142823202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181001351,"gmtCreate":1623365298173,"gmtModify":1634034268049,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It will move to there&nbsp;eventually&nbsp;","listText":"It will move to there&nbsp;eventually&nbsp;","text":"It will move to there eventually","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181001351","repostId":"1195294102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":671,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180131184,"gmtCreate":1623194110648,"gmtModify":1634036058137,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"On the moon?","listText":"On the moon?","text":"On the moon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180131184","repostId":"1193765977","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":455,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100781487,"gmtCreate":1619651176049,"gmtModify":1634211120474,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100781487","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":730,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191132812,"gmtCreate":1620863312636,"gmtModify":1634195835581,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","listText":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","text":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191132812","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":467,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105749440,"gmtCreate":1620342678880,"gmtModify":1634206012620,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good, comment and like pls","listText":"Good, comment and like pls","text":"Good, comment and like 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please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371589132","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342313086,"gmtCreate":1618184078745,"gmtModify":1634294626213,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","listText":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","text":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342313086","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376253181,"gmtCreate":1619133989243,"gmtModify":1634288379362,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376253181","repostId":"2129336009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190322241,"gmtCreate":1620601752283,"gmtModify":1634197886627,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","listText":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","text":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190322241","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在4月份雇佣了近100万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求的激增，而需求是由公共卫生迅速改善和政府的大规模财政援助导致的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫3月份批准的1.9万亿美元COVID-19大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，使其今年走上近四十年来最佳表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映出我们所看到的持续重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加916,000个就业岗位后，上个月非农就业岗位可能增加978,000个。这将使就业岗位比2020年2月的峰值减少约750万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12个月前，由于强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波COVID-19感染，经济损失了创纪录的2067.9万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至656,000人到高至210万人不等。自疫情开始以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至50万以下，美国雇主4月份宣布的裁员人数为近21年来最低。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法是13个月来最强烈的，这也是就业增长又一个月的原因。但被压抑的需求推动了第一季度经济6.4%的年化增长率，为2003年第三季度以来的第二快，引发了劳动力和原材料的短缺。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主都在争夺工人。一系列因素被归咎于劳动力短缺，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团(Citigroup)驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会明显影响4月份的就业，但在9月份扩大的失业救济金到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触性企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会带动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种COVID-19疫苗，导致纽约、新泽西和康涅狄格等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将强劲增长。强劲的住房需求可能会提振建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>在许多州恢复面对面学习后，随着学区雇用更多教师，政府就业预计也会回升。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再投入4万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约TS Lombard首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数居高不下。（支出）计划旨在让经济走上更高的增长轨道，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>预计4月份失业率将从3月份的6.0%降至5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但没有工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量复苏情况，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即有工作或正在找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，但仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人退出了劳动力市场，其中许多是女性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份上涨4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始提高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧提振了工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且暂时的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预期的工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人拥有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均每周工作时间预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>由于企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在4月份雇佣了近100万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求的激增，而需求是由公共卫生迅速改善和政府的大规模财政援助导致的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫3月份批准的1.9万亿美元COVID-19大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，使其今年走上近四十年来最佳表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映出我们所看到的持续重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加916,000个就业岗位后，上个月非农就业岗位可能增加978,000个。这将使就业岗位比2020年2月的峰值减少约750万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12个月前，由于强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波COVID-19感染，经济损失了创纪录的2067.9万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至656,000人到高至210万人不等。自疫情开始以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至50万以下，美国雇主4月份宣布的裁员人数为近21年来最低。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法是13个月来最强烈的，这也是就业增长又一个月的原因。但被压抑的需求推动了第一季度经济6.4%的年化增长率，为2003年第三季度以来的第二快，引发了劳动力和原材料的短缺。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主都在争夺工人。一系列因素被归咎于劳动力短缺，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团(Citigroup)驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克(Veronica Clark)表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会明显影响4月份的就业，但在9月份扩大的失业救济金到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触性企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会带动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种COVID-19疫苗，导致纽约、新泽西和康涅狄格等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将强劲增长。强劲的住房需求可能会提振建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>在许多州恢复面对面学习后，随着学区雇用更多教师，政府就业预计也会回升。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再投入4万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约TS Lombard首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨(Steven Blitz)表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数居高不下。（支出）计划旨在让经济走上更高的增长轨道，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>预计4月份失业率将从3月份的6.0%降至5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但没有工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量复苏情况，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即有工作或正在找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，但仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人退出了劳动力市场，其中许多是女性。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份上涨4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司驻纽约首席全球策略师David Kelly表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始提高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧提振了工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且暂时的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预期的工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人拥有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均每周工作时间预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101231678,"gmtCreate":1619915310794,"gmtModify":1634209200683,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101231678","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351062079,"gmtCreate":1616546564291,"gmtModify":1634525281536,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"No more diamond hands for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>?","listText":"No more diamond hands for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>?","text":"No more diamond hands for $GameStop(GME)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351062079","repostId":"1101903714","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153970239,"gmtCreate":1625008066321,"gmtModify":1633946034706,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"How about salary spike?","listText":"How about salary spike?","text":"How about salary spike?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153970239","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1180006824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>这就是通胀飙升对股市的意义</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>关于通胀对成长股和价值股的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助您把握美国股市近期涨跌的时机。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得记住，因为根据最近的经验，你可以情有可原地认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着重要作用。例如，在4月中旬至5月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。5月中旬以来，通胀担忧消退，价值股表现落后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值型和成长型股票的相对表现之间有任何值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·希勒(Robert Shiller)自1871年以来的每月通胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通胀与标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上一无所获。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过称为r平方的统计数据来衡量）。无论1个月到12个月之间的时间范围如何，自1871年以来，CPI（或其前身）能够预测的标普500波动不超过4%。（请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报，以免影响我的计算。）</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通胀又爱又恨。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通缩时，更高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票呈负相关。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动的相关性，该图表跟踪了过去12个月CPI与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>为了仔细检查这个令人惊讶的结论，我重新运行了我的分析，重点是利率而不是CPI。这很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了预期的未来通胀。短期利率变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的相同模式吗？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自1926年以来美国价值型和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇。（具体来说，价值股投资组合包含美国市场账面/市值比率最低的30%，而成长股投资组合包含此类比率最高的30%。）当关注从1个月到12个月的所有跟踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长股的相对表现之间没有统计上显着的相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率和价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了负相关。这与我们过去几个月所看到的恰恰相反，也与传统智慧告诉我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现的观点相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在之前押注增长时押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，一方面，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找有关市场走向的更强有力的线索。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2299,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}