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HYYOONG

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2021-09-03

Fast fast shoot up ah!!

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2021-08-31

Zoom down!!

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2021-08-27

We need the technoking!!!

Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能再次触及900美元吗？</blockquote>

2021-07-29

Ready player one!!

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2021-07-10

Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]

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2021-06-30

How about salary spike?

Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote>

2021-06-29

S&P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?

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2021-06-27

No no, to the moon!!

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2021-06-26

Crypto winter…

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2021-06-21

Housing market as tight as my wallet?

Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>

2021-06-19

Buy the dip!

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2021-06-18

Go go go

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2021-06-18

I think i better run instead

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2021-06-17

How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well

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2021-06-16

Witcher 4!!

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-15

High to the moon!!

Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于反弹模式：以下是它能达到的高度</blockquote>

2021-06-14

Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]

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2021-06-12

Scare no money more

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2021-06-11

It will move to there eventually

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2021-06-09

On the moon?

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fast shoot up ah!!","listText":"Fast fast shoot up ah!!","text":"Fast fast shoot up ah!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812704023","repostId":"1166895425","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4145,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818088767,"gmtCreate":1630366315359,"gmtModify":1704959057874,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Zoom down!!","listText":"Zoom down!!","text":"Zoom 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technoking!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810728834","repostId":"1161561973","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161561973","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629991651,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161561973?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-26 23:27","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能再次触及900美元吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161561973","media":"investing.com","summary":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling","content":"<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股票再次势头强劲。在从 1 月 25 日盘中触及的 900.40 美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了 17%……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1594375853987","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能再次触及900美元吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Tesla Shares Hit $900 Again This Year?<blockquote>特斯拉股价今年能再次触及900美元吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investing.com</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-26 23:27</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past ...</p><p><blockquote><div>电动汽车制造商特斯拉（纳斯达克股票代码：TSLA）的股票再次势头强劲。在从 1 月 25 日盘中触及的 900.40 美元的历史新高下跌后，特斯拉股价在过去一段时间内上涨了 17%……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999\">investing.com</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.investing.com/analysis/can-tesla-shares-hit-900-again-this-year-200599999","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161561973","content_text":"Electric vehicle maker Tesla Motors' (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock is picking up momentum again. After falling from a record high $900.40, hit intraday on Jan. 25, TSLA shares have gained 17% during the past three months, outperforming the benchmark NASDAQ 100 Index.\nThe biggest question Tesla bulls now have is, whether, on top of the current gains, can the EV manufacturer's stock push through back to the all-time high of $900 this year?\nTesla Weekly Chart.\nGiven the highly volatile nature of the stock, it’s tough to predict whether the current Tesla rally has legs. But it’s important to note that the outlook for its car sales is becoming more uncertain than it was a year ago.\nFirst, the global chip shortage continues to cast doubt on Tesla’s ambitious sales targets for 2021. Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk highlighted challenges that come from the unpredictability of chip supplies and the hurdles he expects in ramping production at two new factories in Austin, Texas, and Berlin, later this year.\nTesla again delayed delivery of its semi-trailer truck—already two years late. The first trucks of this type are now slated for 2022. The company attributed the delay to supply-chain issues and limited battery-cell supply, as well as management trying to focus on getting new factories online. The company’s plans for its first pickup truck, once expected to go to customers as early as this year, are also being affected by parts issues.\nThis is what Musk told analysts last month:\n\n “While we’re making cars at full speed, the global chip-shortage situation remains quite serious. For the rest of this year, our growth rate will be determined by the slowest part in our supply chain.”\n\nRegulatory Probe\nBesides the risks to the market’s earnings consensus for this fiscal year, Tesla is facing a regulatory probe that could result in a massive recall.\nThe U.S.opened a formal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system last week after almost a dozen collisions involving first-responder vehicles. In the last seven years, Tesla has charged clients thousands of dollars for this feature.\nThe probe by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) covers an estimated 765,000 Tesla Model Y, X, S and 3 vehicles from the 2014 model year onward. The regulator—which has the power to deem cars defective and order recalls—said it launched the investigation after 11 crashes that resulted in 17 injuries and one fatality.\nBloomberg reported that Tesla has been criticized for years for labeling the system in a potentially misleading way. Since late 2016, it has marketed this higher-level functionality feature as Full Self-Driving Capability. In reality, Autopilot is a driver-assistance system that maintains vehicles’ speed and keeps them centered in lanes when engaged, though the driver is supposed to supervise at all times.\nTesla now sells that package of features—often referred to as FSD—for $10,000 or $199 a month.\nAfter the NHTSA launched of the probe, two Democratic senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to also investigate Tesla over the company’s advertising of its Autopilot and FSD technology.\nIn a letter last Wednesday, Sen. Richard Blumenthal of Connecticut and Sen. Ed Markey of Massachusetts asked FTC Chair Lina Khan to examine whether Tesla used “potentially deceptive and unfair practices” in its marketing of those technologies.\n“We fear that Tesla’s Autopilot and FSD features are not as mature and reliable as the company pitches to the public,” they wrote, pointing to comments from Musk, as well as a 2019 YouTube video entitled “Full Self-Driving” and has a link to Tesla’s site.\nHighlighting these risks and how they could affect Tesla’s current stock price, however, shouldn’t hide the fact that there are many analysts who continue to remain bullish on TSLA. Piper Sandler reiterated its overweight rating on the stock and its price target of $1,200 this month.\nIn a note, analysts Alexander Potter and Winnie Dong said:\n\n “Bottom line: We still really like this stock. Tesla is still the driving force behind higher [battery electric vehicle] penetration globally.”\n\nBottom Line\nIt’s difficult to predict the future course for Tesla stock given the huge amount of speculative interest in this name. But recent developments show that it will be quite hard for the EV automaker to exceed expectations in this tough manufacturing environment.\nInvestors should trade this name with caution.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801694864,"gmtCreate":1627513933458,"gmtModify":1633764358314,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ready player one!!","listText":"Ready player one!!","text":"Ready player one!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801694864","repostId":"1171529765","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2755,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141707836,"gmtCreate":1625889808525,"gmtModify":1633936331842,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","listText":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]&nbsp;","text":"Not Gamestop or AMC? [Miser]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141707836","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1942,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153970239,"gmtCreate":1625008066321,"gmtModify":1633946034706,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How about salary spike?","listText":"How about salary spike?","text":"How about salary spike?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153970239","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180006824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>对通胀对成长型和价值型股票的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助你判断美国股市近期的涨跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得牢记，因为根据最近的经验，你有理由认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着强大的作用。例如，在 4 月中旬至 5 月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长型股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。自5月中旬以来，通胀担忧有所消退，价值股表现滞后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通货膨胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值股和成长股的相对表现之间存在值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）从1871年开始的月度通货膨胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通货膨胀和标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上是空的。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过一种称为r平方的统计方法来衡量）。无论 1 个月到 12 个月之间的时间跨度如何，自 1871 年以来，CPI（或其前身）预测的标普500波动幅度都不超过 4%。(请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率，以免影响我的计算）。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通货膨胀有着爱恨交织的关系。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通货紧缩时，较高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票是负相关的。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动相关性，该图表跟踪了过去 12 个月 CPI 与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>作为对这一令人惊讶的结论的反复检查，我重新分析了利率而不是CPI。这一点很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了未来通胀的预期。利率短期变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通货膨胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的同样模式？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自 1926 年以来美国价值和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇 (Ken French)。（具体来说，价值股票投资组合包含了美国市场 30% 的账面/市值比率最低，而成长型股票投资组合包含了 30% 的账面/市值比率最高。）当关注从 1 个月到 12 个月的所有追踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长型股票的相对表现之间没有统计学上的显著相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率与价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了一种负相关关系。这与我们过去几个月所看到的情况恰恰相反，也与传统智慧教导我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在以前押注增长的时候押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在着一种不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找更有力的线索，以了解市场的走向。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>对通胀对成长型和价值型股票的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助你判断美国股市近期的涨跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得牢记，因为根据最近的经验，你有理由认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着强大的作用。例如，在 4 月中旬至 5 月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长型股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。自5月中旬以来，通胀担忧有所消退，价值股表现滞后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通货膨胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值股和成长股的相对表现之间存在值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）从1871年开始的月度通货膨胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通货膨胀和标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上是空的。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过一种称为r平方的统计方法来衡量）。无论 1 个月到 12 个月之间的时间跨度如何，自 1871 年以来，CPI（或其前身）预测的标普500波动幅度都不超过 4%。(请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率，以免影响我的计算）。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通货膨胀有着爱恨交织的关系。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通货紧缩时，较高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票是负相关的。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动相关性，该图表跟踪了过去 12 个月 CPI 与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>作为对这一令人惊讶的结论的反复检查，我重新分析了利率而不是CPI。这一点很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了未来通胀的预期。利率短期变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通货膨胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的同样模式？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自 1926 年以来美国价值和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇 (Ken French)。（具体来说，价值股票投资组合包含了美国市场 30% 的账面/市值比率最低，而成长型股票投资组合包含了 30% 的账面/市值比率最高。）当关注从 1 个月到 12 个月的所有追踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长型股票的相对表现之间没有统计学上的显著相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率与价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了一种负相关关系。这与我们过去几个月所看到的情况恰恰相反，也与传统智慧教导我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在以前押注增长的时候押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在着一种不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找更有力的线索，以了解市场的走向。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150583447,"gmtCreate":1624921659989,"gmtModify":1631884082173,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","listText":"S&amp;P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","text":"S&P 500-to-BTC? New ratio?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150583447","repostId":"1143737614","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124897127,"gmtCreate":1624757595869,"gmtModify":1633949063230,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No no, to the moon!!","listText":"No no, to the moon!!","text":"No no, to the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124897127","repostId":"1172737444","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":125643971,"gmtCreate":1624672947193,"gmtModify":1633949787709,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Crypto winter…","listText":"Crypto winter…","text":"Crypto winter…","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/125643971","repostId":"2146500392","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164556580,"gmtCreate":1624231220240,"gmtModify":1634009344239,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","listText":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","text":"Housing market as tight as my wallet?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164556580","repostId":"1149451535","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149451535","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624021899,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149451535?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-18 21:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149451535","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTight U.S. Housing Market Uncoils With Sellers Ready to Cash Out<blockquote>美国房地产市场紧张，卖家准备套现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-18 21:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在大流行期间，随着美国房价比以往任何时候都更高、更快地攀升，潜在的房屋卖家们一直紧张，他们终于开始套现，这是缓解疯狂房地产市场严重短缺的一步。</blockquote></p><p> The number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.</p><p><blockquote>根据购房者投资平台 Haus 的数据，6 月初美国待售房屋数量较 5 月份同一周攀升 6.7%。这是自去年 Covid-19 封锁以来的最大增幅。在所测量的 100 个大都市地区中，有 54 个地区的房源数量有所上升，包括费城、纽约、波士顿、底特律、丹佛和西雅图周边地区。</blockquote></p><p> “Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”</p><p><blockquote>“在豪斯的数据中，匹兹堡 EXP Realty 的经纪人朱莉-韦尔特（Julie Welter）说：”卖家们都在说，'是时候了，让我们赚钱吧'。“随着世界重新开放，绝大多数人都接种了疫苗，这给人们带来了新的舒适感”。</blockquote></p><p> The housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.</p><p><blockquote>房地产市场距离正常还有很长的路要走，库存仍比一年前下降近38%，接近历史低点。但随着东海岸到西海岸的竞购战爆发，任何供应增加的迹象对买家来说都是一个受欢迎的喘息机会。更多的房源也可能有助于缓解导致房源短缺的一个问题：卖家因为很难找到其他东西可以买而留在原地。</blockquote></p><p> Throughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.</p><p><blockquote>在整个疫情，购房者吵着要利用创纪录的低抵押贷款利率和工作灵活性搬家，却发现可用的房屋很快就被吞没了。根据全国房地产经纪人协会的数据，4月份美国现房价格中值同比飙升19%，达到创纪录的341,600美元，帮助业主获得资产净值。</blockquote></p><p> The end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.</p><p><blockquote>封锁的结束也让卖家们不愿让购房者在他们的厨房和卧室里闲逛。Haus 首席经济学家拉尔夫·麦克劳克林 (Ralph McLaughlin) 表示，一些人还渴望搬到新冠病毒让他们远离太久的家庭附近。</blockquote></p><p> “People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”那些考虑在两三年内出售的人可能已经加快了他们的计划。“他们现在正在出售，以实现去年获得的 20% 股权。”</blockquote></p><p> Shauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.</p><p><blockquote>爱达荷州博伊西的 Redfin 经纪人肖娜·彭德尔顿 (Shauna Pendleton) 表示，今年已有 35 名卖家与她谈论房产上市事宜。她说，这大约是 2020 年同期人数的两倍。Redfin 的数据显示，该地区是全国房价增长最快的地区，6 月初房价同比上涨 42%。</blockquote></p><p> “These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”</p><p><blockquote>“彭德尔顿谈到她的新卖家客户时说：”这些人大多是退休人员。“封锁让人们对自己想住在哪里有了全新的看法。他们想念家人”。</blockquote></p><p> The Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.</p><p><blockquote>据 Haus 称，宾夕法尼亚州阿伦敦地区是纽约人和新泽西人寻找更实惠地区的热门市场，该地区的挂牌量从 5 月初的极低水平攀升了 30%，该地区不包括签约房屋数据。</blockquote></p><p> With houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.</p><p><blockquote>大利哈伊谷房地产经纪人集团（Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group）总裁蒂姆·特佩斯（Tim Tepes）说，由于房价远高于要价，许多当地人现在都想卖掉房子，搬到该州其他地方更便宜的地方。他说，尽管新房源不断增加，但房屋正在迅速找到买家。</blockquote></p><p> Cooling Prices</p><p><blockquote>降温价格</blockquote></p><p> McLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.</p><p><blockquote>麦克劳克林表示，他预计到今年年底美国房价增长率将放缓至10%以下。他说，随着买家定价过高，需求也可能降温，特别是如果借贷成本开始上升的话。美联储官员本周表示，他们预计到 2023 年底将加息两次——比许多人想象的要早。</blockquote></p><p> “The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”</p><p><blockquote>“麦克劳克林说：”导致新供应的同样力量，可能也是降低购房者保持购房兴趣的同样力量。“这主要是物价上涨。”</blockquote></p><p> The market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.</p><p><blockquote>新建房屋市场也可能趋于缓和。房屋建筑商一直在抬高价格，因为需求太高，他们无法跟上。房屋建筑数据提供商和咨询公司 Zonda 的首席经济学家阿里·沃尔夫 (Ali Wolf) 表示，现在一些买家感受到了一点贴纸冲击。</blockquote></p><p> About 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.</p><p><blockquote>Zonda 5 月份调查的建筑商中，约 40% 的人将买家犹豫不决列为他们面临的挑战之一，高于上个月的约 20%。她说，因此，新房市场已经从 “难以忍受 ”的火热变成了炙手可热。</blockquote></p><p> In Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.</p><p><blockquote>在德克萨斯州奥斯汀，代理商正在通过电话和短信联系房主，告诉他们通过出售可以赚多少钱。Local Life Realty 的代理人亚历克斯·赖特 (Alex Wright) 表示，这一信息开始引起共鸣。</blockquote></p><p> Wright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.</p><p><blockquote>赖特在该地区长大，她说她儿时最好的朋友的父母现在已经 60 多岁了，他们想搬到中西部，以便离她的祖母更近一些。奥斯汀已今非昔比。她说，这里的物价已经变得很贵，从玉米饼到咖啡，什么都要排队，更不用说住房了。</blockquote></p><p> Wright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.</p><p><blockquote>赖特说，她的买家欢迎更多的选择，但赢得一套房子仍然是一个挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”竞争仍然非常激烈。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tight-u-housing-market-uncoils-124500354.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149451535","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Prospective home sellers who sat tight as U.S. prices climbed higher and faster than ever during the pandemic are finally emerging to cash out, a step toward easing a dire shortage in the frenzied housing market.\nThe number of U.S. homes for sale climbed 6.7% in early June from the same weekly period in May, according to Haus, an investment platform for homebuyers. That was the biggest increase since Covid-19 lockdowns took hold last year. Listings rose in 54 of the 100 metropolitan areas measured, including the regions around Philadelphia, New York, Boston, Detroit, Denver and Seattle.\n“Sellers are saying, ‘it’s time, let’s make the money,’” said Julie Welter, an agent with EXP Realty in Pittsburgh, which had the biggest supply increase in Haus’s data. “With the world opening up again and the vast majority of people being vaccinated, it has given a new comfort level to people.”\nThe housing market is long way from normal, with inventory still down almost 38% from a year earlier and near historic lows. But with bidding wars erupting from coast to coast, any sign of increased supply is a welcome respite for buyers. More listings also may help ease a problem contributing to the scarcity: sellers staying put because it’s a struggle to find something else to purchase.\nThroughout the pandemic, homebuyers clamored to take advantage of record-low mortgage rates and job flexibility to move, only to find the scant homes available were quickly being swallowed up. The median U.S. existing-home price shot up 19% in April from a year earlier to a record $341,600, according to the National Association of Realtors, helping owners gain equity.\nThe end of lockdowns also is bringing out sellers who were reluctant to have home shoppers traipsing through their kitchens and bedrooms. Some people also are eager to move closer to the families that Covid kept them away from for too long, said Ralph McLaughlin, chief economist at Haus.\n“People who were thinking about selling in two or three years may have accelerated their plans,” McLaughlin said. “They’re selling now to realize the 20% equity they’ve gained in the past year.”\nShauna Pendleton, a Redfin agent in Boise, Idaho, said 35 sellers have talked to her this year about listing properties. That’s about twice as many as in the same time in 2020, she said. The area has seen some of the fastest price growth in the country, with home values up 42% in early June from a year earlier, according to Redfin.\n“These are mostly retirees,” Pendleton said of her new seller clients. “The lockdown has given people a whole new perspective about where they want to live. And they’re missing their family.”\nThe Allentown, Pennsylvania, region -- a hot market for New Yorkers and New Jerseyans looking for a more affordable area -- has seen listings climb 30% from extremely low levels in early May, according to Haus, which excluded homes that are under contract from its data.\nWith houses going for well over their asking price, many locals are now being tempted into selling and moving to cheaper spots elsewhere in the state, said Tim Tepes, president of the Greater Lehigh Valley Realtors group. Even as new listings are rising, homes are quickly finding buyers, he said.\nCooling Prices\nMcLaughlin said he expects U.S. home-price growth to slow to less than 10% by the end of the year. Demand may also cool as buyers are priced out, especially if borrowing costs start to rise, he said. Federal Reserve officials indicated this week that they expect two interest-rate increases by the end of 2023 -- sooner than many thought.\n“The same force leading to new supply may be the same force that reduces the ability of homebuyers to keep interested in buying the home,” McLaughlin said. “That’s mainly rising prices.”\nThe market for newly built houses may also be easing. Homebuilders have been jacking up prices because demand was too high for them to keep up with. Now some buyers are feeling a bit of sticker shock, said Ali Wolf, chief economist for Zonda, a homebuilding data provider and consultancy.\nAbout 40% of builders surveyed by Zonda in May listed buyer hesitancy among their challenges, up from about 20% the month before. As a result, the new-home market has gone from “unbearably” hot to just hot, she said.\nIn Austin, Texas, agents are reaching out to homeowners by phone and text, telling them how much they can make by selling. That message is starting to resonate, said Alex Wright, an agent with Local Life Realty.\nWright, who grew up in the area, says her childhood best friend’s parents, now in their 60s, want to move to the Midwest to be closer to her grandmother. Austin isn’t the same place anymore. It has gotten expensive, and there’s a line for everything from tacos to coffee, not to mention housing, she said.\nWright says her buyers welcome more choice, but winning a home is still a challenge.\n“It’s still crazy competitive,” she said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162671433,"gmtCreate":1624063363222,"gmtModify":1634023417975,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy the dip!","listText":"Buy the dip!","text":"Buy the dip!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162671433","repostId":"1175119628","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168836773,"gmtCreate":1623970661992,"gmtModify":1634025168900,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go go go","listText":"Go go go","text":"Go go go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168836773","repostId":"2144156742","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168174171,"gmtCreate":1623969277293,"gmtModify":1634025195785,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"I think i better run instead","listText":"I think i better run instead","text":"I think i better run instead","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168174171","repostId":"1100514296","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":849,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163202635,"gmtCreate":1623885306227,"gmtModify":1634026588044,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","listText":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","text":"How i wish my salary can get two rate hikes as well","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163202635","repostId":"2144270718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160628497,"gmtCreate":1623796775919,"gmtModify":1634028220441,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Witcher 4!!","listText":"Witcher 4!!","text":"Witcher 4!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160628497","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":741,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":184207116,"gmtCreate":1623714908935,"gmtModify":1634029793039,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"High to the moon!!","listText":"High to the moon!!","text":"High to the moon!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/184207116","repostId":"1195129456","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195129456","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623714452,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195129456?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 07:47","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于反弹模式： 以下是它能达到的高度</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195129456","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.Even with strong earnings and an impressive GTC event , Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.For Nvidia though, shares finally broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to","content":"<p>Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，英伟达股价一直在走高，轻松创下历史新高。从这里能走多远？</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia&nbsp;shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达股价走高，英伟达股价终于给多头带来了一些欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数大型科技公司一样，英伟达在 9 月初达到顶峰，达到每股约 588 美元。我们曾有过高于这一水平的反弹，但没有一次是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite a&nbsp;shortage in semiconductors&nbsp;keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market&nbsp;keeping demand high&nbsp;for mining-specific chips.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体短缺导致需求居高不下。尽管加密货币挖矿市场对挖矿专用芯片的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> Even with strong earnings&nbsp;and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.</p><p><blockquote>即使盈利强劲，GTC 活动也令人印象深刻（管理层再次更新了高于普遍预期的指引），英伟达的股价也无法上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Others like Apple&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊等其他公司也经历了同样的事情——强劲的运营和好于预期的业绩，但股价却停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> For Nvidia though, shares&nbsp;<i>finally</i>&nbsp;broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于英伟达来说，股票<i>终于</i>在公司最新财报发布后爆发。现在投资者正试图弄清楚这只股票能走多远。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37425d9c63ee1f6f0517088f67194c9a\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.</p><p><blockquote>该公司五月中旬公布财报后，股价暴跌一天。尽管英伟达业绩强劲，但成长型股票仍处于熊市，投资者仍不确定是否应该购买英伟达。</blockquote></p><p> It took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>花了一天时间才弄清楚，但随后他们开始狼吞虎咽地吃掉股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a&nbsp;4-for-1 stock split&nbsp;coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着持续增长起到推动作用，以及 7 月 20 日即将进行的 4 比 1 股票分割，买家可能会继续提高这个名字的出价。这就是我们去年夏末在苹果和特斯拉看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这里的涨势都很陡峭，虽然英伟达股票一次休息了几天，但近一个月来仍未测试 10 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> As it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.</p><p><blockquote>目前来看，从 2021 年开始，股价将从较大和较短的区间达到 161.8% 的扩展区域。此外，威廉姆斯%R读数也有一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> These observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.</p><p><blockquote>这些观察让我短期内对该股有点谨慎，但不是以看跌的方式。相反，它让我意识到一些潜在的整合，老实说，在如此大的反弹之后，这将是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我看好英伟达。如果该股能够维持10日移动平均线并徘徊在700美元左右，则为更高的价格打开了大门。具体来说，它在桌面上保留了750到766美元，后者在两倍范围扩展前后发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> At $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.</p><p><blockquote>分拆后，Nvidia 的股价为 750 美元，交易价格为 187.50 美元。这在分裂后的世界可能会留下高达 200 美元的空间，在分裂前的世界可能会留下高达 800 美元的空间。</blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者或交易者来说，261.8% 的涨幅在 860 美元附近似乎遥不可及，但如果 Nvidia 能继续走高，我不排除未来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> On a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>当收盘价低于 690 美元和 10 日移动平均线时，我们可能会重新测试 650 美元的突破水平和/或 21 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于反弹模式： 以下是它能达到的高度</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNvidia Is in Rally Mode: Here’s How High It Can Go<blockquote>英伟达处于反弹模式： 以下是它能达到的高度</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 07:47</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?</p><p><blockquote>过去一个月，英伟达股价一直在走高，轻松创下历史新高。从这里能走多远？</blockquote></p><p> Nvidia&nbsp;shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.</p><p><blockquote>随着英伟达股价走高，英伟达股价终于给多头带来了一些欢呼。</blockquote></p><p> Just like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>与大多数大型科技公司一样，英伟达在 9 月初达到顶峰，达到每股约 588 美元。我们曾有过高于这一水平的反弹，但没有一次是可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> That’s despite a&nbsp;shortage in semiconductors&nbsp;keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market&nbsp;keeping demand high&nbsp;for mining-specific chips.</p><p><blockquote>尽管半导体短缺导致需求居高不下。尽管加密货币挖矿市场对挖矿专用芯片的需求一直很高。</blockquote></p><p> Even with strong earnings&nbsp;and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.</p><p><blockquote>即使盈利强劲，GTC 活动也令人印象深刻（管理层再次更新了高于普遍预期的指引），英伟达的股价也无法上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Others like Apple&nbsp;and Amazon&nbsp;have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.</p><p><blockquote>苹果和亚马逊等其他公司也经历了同样的事情——强劲的运营和好于预期的业绩，但股价却停滞不前。</blockquote></p><p> For Nvidia though, shares&nbsp;<i>finally</i>&nbsp;broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.</p><p><blockquote>不过，对于英伟达来说，股票<i>终于</i>在公司最新财报发布后爆发。现在投资者正试图弄清楚这只股票能走多远。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Trading Nvidia</b></p><p><blockquote><b>交易英伟达</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/37425d9c63ee1f6f0517088f67194c9a\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"760\"><span>Daily chart of Nvidia stock.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>英伟达股票日线图。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Shares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.</p><p><blockquote>该公司五月中旬公布财报后，股价暴跌一天。尽管英伟达业绩强劲，但成长型股票仍处于熊市，投资者仍不确定是否应该购买英伟达。</blockquote></p><p> It took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.</p><p><blockquote>花了一天时间才弄清楚，但随后他们开始狼吞虎咽地吃掉股票。</blockquote></p><p> However, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a&nbsp;4-for-1 stock split&nbsp;coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>然而，随着持续增长起到推动作用，以及 7 月 20 日即将进行的 4 比 1 股票分割，买家可能会继续提高这个名字的出价。这就是我们去年夏末在苹果和特斯拉看到的情况。</blockquote></p><p> In any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，这里的涨势都很陡峭，虽然英伟达股票一次休息了几天，但近一个月来仍未测试 10 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p> As it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.</p><p><blockquote>目前来看，从 2021 年开始，股价将从较大和较短的区间达到 161.8% 的扩展区域。此外，威廉姆斯%R读数也有一些差异。</blockquote></p><p> These observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.</p><p><blockquote>这些观察让我短期内对该股有点谨慎，但不是以看跌的方式。相反，它让我意识到一些潜在的整合，老实说，在如此大的反弹之后，这将是健康的。</blockquote></p><p> That said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，我看好英伟达。如果该股能够维持10日移动平均线并徘徊在700美元左右，则为更高的价格打开了大门。具体来说，它在桌面上保留了750到766美元，后者在两倍范围扩展前后发挥作用。</blockquote></p><p> At $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.</p><p><blockquote>分拆后，Nvidia 的股价为 750 美元，交易价格为 187.50 美元。这在分裂后的世界可能会留下高达 200 美元的空间，在分裂前的世界可能会留下高达 800 美元的空间。</blockquote></p><p> For long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.</p><p><blockquote>对于长期投资者或交易者来说，261.8% 的涨幅在 860 美元附近似乎遥不可及，但如果 Nvidia 能继续走高，我不排除未来实现这一目标。</blockquote></p><p> On a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.</p><p><blockquote>当收盘价低于 690 美元和 10 日移动平均线时，我们可能会重新测试 650 美元的突破水平和/或 21 日移动平均线。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-rally-new-highs-trading-061421\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/nvidia-nvda-stock-rally-new-highs-trading-061421","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195129456","content_text":"Nvidia has been ripping higher over the past month, easily running to new all-time highs. How far can it go from here?\nNvidia shares have finally been giving bulls something to cheer about as the stock scorches higher.\nJust like most of big tech, Nvidia topped in early September, hitting roughly $588 a share. We’ve had spurts above that level, but none of the rallies have been sustainable.\nThat’s despite a shortage in semiconductors keeping demand elevated. It’s also despite the crypto-mining market keeping demand high for mining-specific chips.\nEven with strong earnings and an impressive GTC event (where management again updated its guidance above consensus expectations), Nvidia stock couldn’t get moving.\nOthers like Apple and Amazon have been experiencing the same thing - strong operations and better-than-expected results but a stagnant share price.\nFor Nvidia though, shares finally broke out after the company’s most recent earnings report. Now investors are trying to figure out just how far this stock can run.\nTrading Nvidia\nDaily chart of Nvidia stock.\nShares stumbled for a day after the company reported earnings in mid-May. Growth stocks were still in a bear market and investors weren’t sure if they should buy Nvidia despite strong results.\nIt took a day to figure out, but then they started to gobble up the stock.\nHowever, with sustained growth acting as a tailwind and a 4-for-1 stock split coming on July 20, buyers may continue to bid this name higher. That’s what we saw near the end of summer last year with Apple and Tesla.\nIn any regard, the rally here has been steep and while Nvidia stock has rested for a few days at a time, it still has not tested 10-day moving average in almost a month.\nAs it stands now, shares are hitting the 161.8% extension areas from both the larger and shorter ranges from 2021. Additionally, there is a bit of divergence on the Williams %R reading.\nThese observations have me a bit cautious on the stock in the short term, but not in a bearish way. Rather, it leaves me mindful of some potential consolidation, which to be honest, would be healthy after such a big rally.\nThat said, I am bullish on Nvidia. If this stock can maintain the 10-day moving average and hang around $700, it opens the door for higher prices. Specifically, it keeps $750 to $766 on the table, the latter of which comes into play around the two-times range extension.\nAt $750 post-split, Nvidia would be trading at $187.50. That could leave room up to $200 in a post-split world or $800 in pre-split world.\nFor long-term investors or traders, the 261.8% extension up near $860 seems impossibly far off, but if Nvidia can continue to trend higher, I wouldn’t rule this target out in the future.\nOn a close below $690 and the 10-day moving average, we could get a retest of the $650 breakout level and/or the 21-day moving average.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":580,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185053822,"gmtCreate":1623628079166,"gmtModify":1634031102276,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"Higher than my hourly wage [Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185053822","repostId":"2142209295","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":871,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":188543032,"gmtCreate":1623456498826,"gmtModify":1634033034707,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Scare no money more","listText":"Scare no money more","text":"Scare no money more","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/188543032","repostId":"2142823202","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":965,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":181001351,"gmtCreate":1623365298173,"gmtModify":1634034268049,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It will move to there&nbsp;eventually&nbsp;","listText":"It will move to there&nbsp;eventually&nbsp;","text":"It will move to there eventually","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/181001351","repostId":"1195294102","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":863,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":180131184,"gmtCreate":1623194110648,"gmtModify":1634036058137,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3554924249585989","idStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"On the moon?","listText":"On the moon?","text":"On the moon?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/180131184","repostId":"1193765977","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":588,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":100781487,"gmtCreate":1619651176049,"gmtModify":1634211120474,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/100781487","repostId":"1132578048","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191132812,"gmtCreate":1620863312636,"gmtModify":1634195835581,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","listText":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","text":"Dun like this news, but like my comment and comment thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191132812","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":587,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":105749440,"gmtCreate":1620342678880,"gmtModify":1634206012620,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good, comment and like pls","listText":"Good, comment and like pls","text":"Good, comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/105749440","repostId":"1127838610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":936,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":371589132,"gmtCreate":1618960894726,"gmtModify":1634289663351,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/371589132","repostId":"2129289138","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":342313086,"gmtCreate":1618184078745,"gmtModify":1634294626213,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","listText":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","text":"Finally can view Spiderman and Jumanji on Netflix!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/342313086","repostId":"2126315033","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":542,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":376253181,"gmtCreate":1619133989243,"gmtModify":1634288379362,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment please","listText":"Like and comment please","text":"Like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/376253181","repostId":"2129336009","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":748,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":190322241,"gmtCreate":1620601752283,"gmtModify":1634197886627,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","listText":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","text":"Low hiring not good, like and comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/190322241","repostId":"1193602237","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1193602237","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1620471120,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1193602237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-08 18:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1193602237","media":"reuters","summary":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in dema","content":"<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. hiring takes big step back as businesses scramble for workers, raw materials<blockquote>随着企业争夺工人和原材料，美国招聘大幅倒退</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">reuters</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-05-08 18:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.</p><p><blockquote>美国雇主可能在 4 月份雇佣了近 100 万名工人，因为他们急于满足需求激增，这是在公共卫生迅速改善和政府提供大量财政援助的情况下经济重新开放所释放的。</blockquote></p><p>The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周五发布的备受关注的就业报告将首次显示白宫 3 月份批准的 1.9 万亿美元 COVID-19 大流行救助计划的影响。这可能表明经济以更大的势头进入第二季度，坚定地走上了今年近四十年来最好表现的轨道。</blockquote></p><p>\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"</p><p><blockquote>荷兰国际集团驻纽约首席国际经济学家詹姆斯·奈特利表示：“我们正在寻找一个相当不错的数字，反映我们所看到的正在进行的重新开放。”“随着人们口袋里有了现金，经济活动看起来不错，这应该会导致整个经济中越来越多的招聘。”</blockquote></p><p>According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.</p><p><blockquote>根据路透社对经济学家的调查，继3月份增加91.6万个之后，上个月非农就业人数可能增加97.8万个。这将使就业人数比 2020 年 2 月的峰值低约 750 万个。</blockquote></p><p>Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.</p><p><blockquote>12 个月前，经济因强制关闭非必要企业以减缓第一波 COVID-19 感染而减少了创纪录的 2067.9 万个工作岗位。</blockquote></p><p>April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.</p><p><blockquote>4月份的就业人数估计从低至65.6万人到高达210万人不等。自疫情爆发以来，新申请失业救济人数首次降至 50 万人以下，美国雇主 4 月份宣布的裁员人数为近 21 年来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.</p><p><blockquote>消费者对劳动力市场的看法也是 13 个月来最强劲的，这也表明就业又出现了大幅增长。但被压抑的需求导致了劳动力和原材料短缺，第一季度经济年化增长率为 6.4%，这是自 2003 年第三季度以来的第二快增长率。</blockquote></p><p>From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.</p><p><blockquote>从制造业到餐馆，雇主们都在争抢工人。劳动力短缺被归咎于一系列因素，包括仍在家照顾孩子的父母、与冠状病毒相关的退休和慷慨的失业支票。</blockquote></p><p>\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.</p><p><blockquote>花旗集团驻纽约经济学家维罗妮卡·克拉克表示：“虽然我们预计工人短缺不会对 4 月份的就业造成明显影响，但在扩大的失业救济金于 9 月份到期之前，未来几个月重新招聘可能会变得更加困难。”</blockquote></p><p>Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.</p><p><blockquote>随着餐馆、酒吧和游乐园等更多高接触的企业重新开业，休闲和酒店业可能会推动工资增长。16岁以上的美国人现在有资格接种新冠肺炎疫苗，导致纽约州、新泽西州和康涅狄格州等州取消了对企业的大部分冠状病毒产能限制。</blockquote></p><p>BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINS</p><p><blockquote>广泛的就业增长</blockquote></p><p>Solid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.</p><p><blockquote>尽管全球半导体芯片短缺迫使汽车制造商减产，但预计制造业也将稳步增长。强劲的住房需求可能会推高建筑业就业人数。</blockquote></p><p>Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.</p><p><blockquote>随着许多州恢复面对面学习，学区雇佣了更多教师，政府就业预计也会增加。</blockquote></p><p>Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的招聘不太可能对乔·拜登总统在教育和儿童保育、中低收入家庭、基础设施和就业方面再支出 4 万亿美元的计划产生影响。预计它也不会影响货币政策，美联储已表示准备让经济运行比前几个周期更热。</blockquote></p><p>Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>数百万美国人仍然失业，许多人因为疫情而永久失业。</blockquote></p><p>\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"</p><p><blockquote>纽约 TS Lombard 首席美国经济学家史蒂文·布利茨 (Steven Blitz) 表示：“没有人知道新冠疫情过后的经济会是什么样子。”“永久流离失所的人数一直居高不下。（支出）计划的目的是让经济走上更高的增长轨迹，以便这些人能够尽早就业。”</blockquote></p><p>The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"</p><p><blockquote>失业率预计将从3月份的6.0%降至4月份的5.8%。人们错误地将自己归类为“有工作但不工作”，从而低估了失业率。</blockquote></p><p>To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.</p><p><blockquote>为了衡量经济复苏，经济学家将关注失业超过六个月的人数以及因永久性失业而失业的人数。</blockquote></p><p>The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>劳动力参与率，即拥有工作或正在寻找工作的工作年龄美国人的比例，上个月可能有所改善，尽管仍低于大流行前的水平。在疫情期间，超过400万人，其中许多是妇女，退出了劳动力市场。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.</p><p><blockquote>由于工资较低的休闲和酒店业预计将主导就业增长，平均时薪在3月份下降0.1%后，4月份可能保持不变。这将导致工资在3月份增长4.2%后同比下降0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通资产管理公司(J.P. Morgan Asset Management)驻纽约首席全球策略师大卫·凯利(David Kelly)表示：“我们将密切关注平均时薪，寻找招聘合格工人的困难开始推高薪酬的迹象。”</blockquote></p><p>\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"</p><p><blockquote>“如果劳动力市场收紧推动工资增长，那么美联储预计温和且短暂的通胀反弹可能会变得更强劲、更持久，从而导致美联储提前收紧货币政策。”</blockquote></p><p>The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.</p><p><blockquote>预计工资下降不会对消费者支出产生影响，美国人有超过2万亿美元的超额储蓄。平均工作周预计稳定在34.9小时。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.reuters.com/markets\">reuters</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.reuters.com/markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1193602237","content_text":"U.S. employers likely hired nearly a million workers in April as they rushed to meet a surge in demand, unleashed by the reopening of the economy amid rapidly improving public health and massive financial help from the government.The Labor Department's closely watched employment report on Friday will be the first to show the impact of the White House's $1.9 trillion COVID-19 pandemic rescue package, which was approved in March. It is likely to show the economy entered the second quarter with even greater momentum, firmly putting it on track this year for its best performance in almost four decades.\"We are looking for a pretty good figure, reflecting the ongoing reopening we have seen,\" said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING in New York. \"With cash in people's pockets, economic activity is looking good and that should lead to more and more hiring right across the economy.\"According to a Reuters survey of economists, nonfarm payrolls likely increased by 978,000 jobs last month after rising by 916,000 in March. That would leave employment about 7.5 million jobs below its peak in February 2020.Twelve months ago, the economy purged a record 20.679 million jobs as it reeled from mandatory closures of nonessential businesses to slow the first wave of COVID-19 infections.April's payrolls estimates range from as low as 656,000 to as high as 2.1 million jobs. New claims for unemployment benefits have dropped below 500,000 for the first-time since the pandemic started and job cuts announced by U.S.-based employers in April were the lowest in nearly 21 years.Also arguing for another month of blockbuster job growth, consumers' perceptions of the labor market are the strongest in 13 months. But the pent-up demand, which contributed to the economy's 6.4% annualized growth pace in the first quarter, the second-fastest since the third quarter of 2003, has triggered shortages of labor and raw materials.From manufacturing to restaurants, employers are scrambling for workers. A range of factors, including parents still at home caring for children, coronavirus-related retirements and generous unemployment checks, are blamed for the labor shortages.\"While we do not expect that lack of workers will weigh noticeably on April employment, rehiring could become more difficult in coming months before expanded unemployment benefits expire in September,\" said Veronica Clark, an economist at Citigroup in New York.Payroll gains were likely led by the leisure and hospitality industry as more high-contact businesses such as restaurants, bars and amusement parks reopen. Americans over the age of 16 are now eligible to receive the COVID-19 vaccine, leading states like New York, New Jersey and Connecticut to lift most of their coronavirus capacity restrictions on businesses.BROAD EMPLOYMENT GAINSSolid gains were also expected in manufacturing, despite a global semiconductor chip shortage, which has forced motor vehicle manufacturers to cut production. Strong housing demand likely boosted construction payrolls.Government employment is also expected to have picked up as school districts hired more teachers following the resumption of in-person learning in many states.Robust hiring is unlikely to have an impact on President Joe Biden's plan to spend another $4 trillion on education and childcare, middle- and low-income families, infrastructure and jobs. Neither was it expected to influence monetary policy, with the Federal Reserve having signaled it is prepared to let the economy run hotter than it did in previous cycles.Millions of Americans remain out of work and many have permanently lost jobs because of the pandemic.\"Nobody knows what the economy is going to look like post COVID,\" said Steven Blitz, chief U.S. economist at TS Lombard in New York. \"There is a stubbornly high number of people who have been permanently displaced. The (spending) plans are about giving the economy a higher trajectory of growth so that these people can be hired sooner rather than later.\"The unemployment rate is forecast dropping to 5.8% in April from 6.0% in March. The unemployment rate has been understated by people misclassifying themselves as being \"employed but absent from work.\"To gauge the recovery, economists will focus on the number of people who have been unemployed for more than six months as well as those out of work because of permanent job losses.The labor force participation rate, or the proportion of working-age Americans who have a job or are looking for one, likely improved last month, though it remained below its pre-pandemic level. More than 4 million people, many of them women, dropped out of the labor force during the pandemic.With the lower-wage leisure and hospitality industry expected to dominate employment gains, average hourly earnings were likely unchanged in April after dipping 0.1% in March. That would lead to a 0.4% drop in wages on a year-on-year basis after a 4.2% increase in March.\"We will be watching average hourly earnings very closely for signs that difficulty in hiring qualified workers is beginning to boost compensation,\" said David Kelly, chief global strategist at J.P. Morgan Asset Management in New York.\"If tightening labor markets boost wage growth, then the inflation bounce which the Fed is anticipating to be modest and transitory could turn out to be stronger and longer-lasting, leading to earlier Fed tightening.\"The anticipated drop in wages will have no impact on consumer spending, with Americans sitting on more than $2 trillion in excess savings. The average workweek was forecast steady at 34.9 hours.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":726,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101231678,"gmtCreate":1619915310794,"gmtModify":1634209200683,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment","listText":"Like and comment","text":"Like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101231678","repostId":"2132603015","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":351062079,"gmtCreate":1616546564291,"gmtModify":1634525281536,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No more diamond hands for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>?","listText":"No more diamond hands for <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GME\">$GameStop(GME)$</a>?","text":"No more diamond hands for $GameStop(GME)$?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/351062079","repostId":"1101903714","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153970239,"gmtCreate":1625008066321,"gmtModify":1633946034706,"author":{"id":"3554924249585989","authorId":"3554924249585989","name":"HYYOONG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3554924249585989","authorIdStr":"3554924249585989"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"How about salary spike?","listText":"How about salary spike?","text":"How about salary spike?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153970239","repostId":"1180006824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180006824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624979545,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180006824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180006824","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basi","content":"<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>对通胀对成长型和价值型股票的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助你判断美国股市近期的涨跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得牢记，因为根据最近的经验，你有理由认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着强大的作用。例如，在 4 月中旬至 5 月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长型股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。自5月中旬以来，通胀担忧有所消退，价值股表现滞后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通货膨胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值股和成长股的相对表现之间存在值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）从1871年开始的月度通货膨胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通货膨胀和标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上是空的。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过一种称为r平方的统计方法来衡量）。无论 1 个月到 12 个月之间的时间跨度如何，自 1871 年以来，CPI（或其前身）预测的标普500波动幅度都不超过 4%。(请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率，以免影响我的计算）。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通货膨胀有着爱恨交织的关系。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通货紧缩时，较高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票是负相关的。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动相关性，该图表跟踪了过去 12 个月 CPI 与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>作为对这一令人惊讶的结论的反复检查，我重新分析了利率而不是CPI。这一点很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了未来通胀的预期。利率短期变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通货膨胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的同样模式？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自 1926 年以来美国价值和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇 (Ken French)。（具体来说，价值股票投资组合包含了美国市场 30% 的账面/市值比率最低，而成长型股票投资组合包含了 30% 的账面/市值比率最高。）当关注从 1 个月到 12 个月的所有追踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长型股票的相对表现之间没有统计学上的显著相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率与价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了一种负相关关系。这与我们过去几个月所看到的情况恰恰相反，也与传统智慧教导我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在以前押注增长的时候押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在着一种不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找更有力的线索，以了解市场的走向。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere’s what inflation’s spike means for stocks now<blockquote>通胀飙升对股市意味着什么</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 23:12</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis</p><p><blockquote>对通胀对成长型和价值型股票的短期影响的预期没有历史依据</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a11ddc0063c90ff3e9f3bfe11e8ad739\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"850\"><span>AGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>法新社/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Don’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.</p><p><blockquote>不要指望最新的通胀数据来帮助你判断美国股市近期的涨跌。</blockquote></p><p> That’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.</p><p><blockquote>这一点值得牢记，因为根据最近的经验，你有理由认为通货膨胀在股市的短期波动中发挥着强大的作用。例如，在 4 月中旬至 5 月中旬的通胀恐慌期间，价值股的表现优于成长型股——正如传统观点所预期的那样。自5月中旬以来，通胀担忧有所消退，价值股表现滞后。</blockquote></p><p> It doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>事情并不总是这么顺利。事实上，我找不到通货膨胀的短期趋势与整个股市的表现或价值股和成长股的相对表现之间存在值得注意的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> To search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&amp;P 500&nbsp;over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>为了寻找这种相关性，我首先分析了耶鲁大学金融学教授罗伯特·席勒（Robert Shiller）从1871年开始的月度通货膨胀、利率和股市数据。我计算了从过去一个月到过去12个月的不同短期时期内通货膨胀和标普500之间的相关系数。</blockquote></p><p> I largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&amp;P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&amp;P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)</p><p><blockquote>我基本上是空的。考虑CPI的变化在多大程度上解释或预测了标普500的同时变化（通过一种称为r平方的统计方法来衡量）。无论 1 个月到 12 个月之间的时间跨度如何，自 1871 年以来，CPI（或其前身）预测的标普500波动幅度都不超过 4%。(请注意，在衡量这些相关性时，我关注的是标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率，以免影响我的计算）。</blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.</p><p><blockquote>缺乏强相关性的原因之一是股市与通货膨胀有着爱恨交织的关系。当投资者更担心经济疲软，甚至通货紧缩时，较高的通胀有时被视为一件好事。在其他时候，通货膨胀和股票是负相关的。</blockquote></p><p> This fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&amp;P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.</p><p><blockquote>下图说明了这种波动相关性，该图表跟踪了过去 12 个月 CPI 与标普500经通胀调整后的总回报率之间的相关系数。注意没有任何一致的关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/12ac0cc9ed7a8d766f3308cbf6daeaf5\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"882\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.</p><p><blockquote>作为对这一令人惊讶的结论的反复检查，我重新分析了利率而不是CPI。这一点很有启发性，因为利率不仅反映了近期通胀的变化，还反映了未来通胀的预期。利率短期变动与股市之间的相关性甚至比我关注通货膨胀时还要弱。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Value vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise</b></p><p><blockquote><b>通货膨胀和利率上升时的价值与增长</b></blockquote></p><p> What about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?</p><p><blockquote>价值相对于增长的表现如何？从历史上看，它肯定遵循了我们在过去几个月中看到的同样模式？</blockquote></p><p> Not so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>不是这样的。为了得出这个违反直觉的结论，我分析了自 1926 年以来美国价值和成长型股票的月回报率，数据来自达特茅斯学院金融学教授肯·弗伦奇 (Ken French)。（具体来说，价值股票投资组合包含了美国市场 30% 的账面/市值比率最低，而成长型股票投资组合包含了 30% 的账面/市值比率最高。）当关注从 1 个月到 12 个月的所有追踪时间段时，我发现通货膨胀与价值股和成长型股票的相对表现之间没有统计学上的显著相关性。</blockquote></p><p> Even more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>更令人惊讶的是，当我关注利率与价值相对于增长的表现之间的关系时，我发现了一种负相关关系。这与我们过去几个月所看到的情况恰恰相反，也与传统智慧教导我们的价值股在利率上升的环境中应该如何表现相反。</blockquote></p><p> My analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.</p><p><blockquote>我的分析并不表明投资者现在应该反其道而行之，在以前押注增长的时候押注价值，反之亦然。这一分析的要点是，通货膨胀和利率与股票市场和价值相对于增长的表现之间存在着一种不稳定且往往微不足道的历史关系。</blockquote></p><p> Short-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.</p><p><blockquote>短期股市计时器需要在其他地方寻找更有力的线索，以了解市场的走向。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/heres-what-inflations-spike-means-for-stocks-now-11624928059?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180006824","content_text":"Expectations about inflation’s short-term impact on growth- and value stocks have no historical basis\nAGENCE FRANCE-PRESSE/GETTY IMAGES\nDon’t look to the latest inflation figures to help you time the U.S. stock market’s near-term ups and downs.\nThat’s worth keeping in mind because, based on recent experience, you’d be excused for thinking that inflation plays a powerful role in the stock market’s shorter-term gyrations. During the inflation scare between mid-April and mid-May, for example, value stocks outperformed growth stocks — just as conventional wisdom would expect. Since mid-May, inflation worries have receded and value stocks have lagged.\nIt doesn’t always work out this neatly. In fact, I could find no noteworthy historical relationship between inflation’s short-term trend and the performance of either the stock market as a whole or the relative performance of value- and growth stocks.\nTo search for such correlations, I started by analyzing monthly inflation, interest rates and stock market data from Yale University finance professor Robert Shiller going back to 1871. I calculated the correlation coefficients between inflation and the S&P 500 over different short-term periods extending from the trailing one month to trailing 12 months.\nI largely came up empty. Consider the extent to which changes in the CPI explain or predict simultaneous changes in the S&P 500 (as measured by a statistic known as r-squared). Regardless of the time horizon between one- and 12 months, the CPI (or its predecessor) since 1871 has been able to predict no more than 4% of the S&P 500’s gyrations. (Note carefully that, when measuring these correlations, I focused on the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return so as not to bias my calculations.)\nOne of the reasons for the absence of a strong correlation is that the stock market has a love-hate relationship with inflation. When investors are more worried about economic weakness, or even deflation, higher inflation is sometimes seen as a good thing. At other times inflation and stocks are inversely correlated.\nThis fluctuating correlation is illustrated in the chart below, which tracks the correlation coefficient between the CPI and the S&P 500’s inflation-adjusted total return over the trailing 12 months. Notice the absence of any consistent relationship.\n\nAs a double-check on this surprising conclusion, I reran my analysis focusing on interest rates rather than the CPI. That’s revealing because interest rates reflect not only recent changes in inflation but also expected future inflation. The correlations between short-term movements in interest rates and the stock market were even weaker than when I focused on inflation.\nValue vs. growth when inflation and interest rates rise\nWhat about value’s performance relative to growth? Surely it historically has followed the same pattern we’ve seen over the past couple of months?\nNot so. To reach that counterintuitive conclusion, I analyzed the monthly returns of U.S. value and growth stocks since 1926, courtesy of data from Dartmouth College finance professor Ken French. (Specifically, the value stock portfolio contained the 30% of the U.S. market with the lowest book/market ratios, while the growth stock portfolio contained the 30% with the highest such ratios.) When focusing on all trailing time periods from one- to 12 months, I found no statistically significant correlation between inflation and the relative performance of value and growth stocks.\nEven more surprising is what emerged when focusing on the relationship between interest rates and value’s performance relative to growth: I found an inverse correlation. That is just the opposite of what we saw over the past couple of months, and the opposite of what conventional wisdom teaches us about how value stocks should perform in a rising interest rate environment.\nMy analysis doesn’t suggest that investors should now do the opposite, betting on value when previously they bet on growth, or vice versa. The point of this analysis is that there’s an unsteady and often insignificant historical relationship between inflation and interest rates, on the one hand, and the stock market and value’s performance relative to growth, on the other.\nShort-term stock-market timers need to look elsewhere for stronger clues as to where the market is headed.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}