SG Visual Research 图解研报
SG Visual Research 图解研报
来自新加坡的华文创作号,用中文整理与解读英文研报和企业信息。
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NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

$网易(NTES)$   $网易-S(09999)$   NetEase’s 3Q25 looked “fine” at first glance — but one number changes everything: 🔥 Deferred revenue +25% YoY This is future profit already locked in and waiting to be recognized. If you follow China gaming, you know: Deferred revenue spikes → earnings beat in the next 1–2 quarters. And the setup looks strong: 🎮 PC games +33% YoY after Blizzard’s return 📱 Mobile still growing with legacy blockbusters + new momentum 🚀 A loaded 2026 pipeline: Forgotten Seas, Unbounded, Starry Abyss, Returning Tang — multiple titles capable of becoming annual hits. Profitability is inflecting too: Non-GAAP NP +26.7% YoY Youdao: 5th consecutive profitable quarter Cloud Music: stable
NetEase 3Q25: The Market Is Sleeping on a 25% Deferred Revenue Spike — 2026 Could Surprise Everyone

Alibaba 2QFY26: Cloud Explodes, but QC Burns the Profits — Turning Point or Trap?

$阿里巴巴(BABA)$   $阿里巴巴-W(09988)$   Alibaba just posted one of its most contradictory quarters in years. ☁ Cloud revenue jumped 34.5% YoY — the strongest growth since the restructuring. 🔥 But adj. EBITA collapsed 78%, dragged down by heavy investment in quick commerce (QC). Here’s the twist: Management says cloud demand is so strong that supply can’t keep up, and QC losses have been cut by 50% per order since August. And Keeta Hong Kong? ➡ Turned profitable in just 29 months, beating its own 36-month target. So the big question: Is Alibaba entering a new “cloud + quick commerce” synergy cycle? Or will QC continue burning profits?
Alibaba 2QFY26: Cloud Explodes, but QC Burns the Profits — Turning Point or Trap?

新交所估值洼地?深度拆解LMS Compliance (SGX: LMS) 的首评研报

$LMS Compliance(LMS.SI)$   针对 LMS Compliance (LMS.SI) 发出的首评研报,逻辑很硬。 作为一家深耕马来西亚的检测合规龙头,几个数据值得关注: 护城河: 85% 以上的经常性收入,现金流极强。 增长引擎: 2025 年新马两地强制性 ESG 披露的最大受益者。 估值: 目前 SGX 整体估值偏低,这类高增长、高派息潜力的标的值得复盘。
新交所估值洼地?深度拆解LMS Compliance (SGX: LMS) 的首评研报

Adobe 的 AI 故事正在从“功能演示”转向“真金白银”。

$Adobe(ADBE)$   最新财报显示,AI 相关新增 ARR 已占整体超三分之一,生成式积分消耗量单季激增约 3 倍——用户不是在试用,而是在高频使用。 但与此同时,公司首次将 FY26 运营利润率指引下调至 45%,为多年新低。一边是创纪录的 26 亿美元净新增 ARR 指引,一边是利润承压,这究竟是“战略性投入”,还是增长质量在悄悄变化? 值得思考的是:当一家软件公司把超过 1/3 的新收入归因于 AI,我们该如何判断这是可持续变现,还是短期叙事包装? (一图读懂详见正文)
Adobe 的 AI 故事正在从“功能演示”转向“真金白银”。

小鹏,终于走到“技术兑现”的那一步了

$小鹏汽车(XPEV)$  $小鹏汽车-W(09868)$   L3 自动驾驶拿到路测牌照,全年交付直接翻倍,毛利率首次站上 20%。 这些信号放在一起,意味着一件事: 技术开始转化成规模,而不是停在 PPT 里。 @小鹏汽车 
小鹏,终于走到“技术兑现”的那一步了

Moore Threads’ IPO just sent China’s local GPU race into overdrive.

$摩尔线程(688795)$  Retail investors piled into the deal with 4,000× subscription, signalling massive appetite for domestic AI chip plays as China pushes to replace Nvidia hardware. The Beijing-based GPU start-up — founded in 2020 by former Nvidia China head James Zhang and staffed with ex-Nvidia/AMD veterans — has launched four generations of GPUs (Sudi, Chunxiao, Quyuan, Pinghu) despite being on the U.S. Entity List. Key numbers investors overlooked: 2024 revenue: RMB 438.5m (+200% 3-yr CAGR) 2024 net loss: RMB –1.5bn (heavy R&D + inventory) 1H25 revenue: RMB 701.8m 1H25 net loss: narrowed to RMB –271m IPO proceeds: RMB 8bn Valuation: RMB 53.7bn Backers include Tencent, ByteDance, Sequoia China, GGV and Shenzhen Capital Group — almost 90 sha
Moore Threads’ IPO just sent China’s local GPU race into overdrive.

JD Industrials IPO: China’s No.1 Industrial Supply Chain Platform — Worth Subscribing?

$京东工业(07618)$  JD Industrials (7618.HK) — often called “China’s No.1 industrial supply chain platform” — is finally coming to market. Here are the key takeaways from the latest IPO review: 🔹 Huge Market Opportunity China’s industrial supply chain market is heading toward RMB 1.1 trillion by 2029, with low digital penetration. 🔹 Strong Platform Fundamentals Over 81 million SKUs, 11,000+ enterprise clients, and the largest share in China’s MRO/B2B industrial segment. 🔹 Solid Growth Trend 1H25 revenue +19%, improving gross margin (18.6%), and rising adjusted profit. 🔹 JD Ecosystem Advantage Integrated logistics + supply chain + fulfillment give JD Industrials a real moat. But there are risks: ⚠ Gross margin still lower vs global peers ⚠ Heavy reli
JD Industrials IPO: China’s No.1 Industrial Supply Chain Platform — Worth Subscribing?

NIO 3Q25: Beat or Beware?

$蔚来(NIO)$   $蔚来-SW(09866)$   $蔚来(NIO.SI)$   NIO’s 3Q25 results came in stronger on margins, but the bigger picture remains challenging. Gross margin beat expectations, yet net loss was still RMB 3.66bn. Management also cut 4Q guidance and is less confident about breakeven this year. Competition in China’s EV SUV market is intensifying, and NIO may need price cuts when its new L-series arrives. Key question now: Can NIO protect margins and recover volume in early 2026?
NIO 3Q25: Beat or Beware?

可能是上半年最被低估的新交所上市公司

$LMS Compliance(LMS.SI)$   合规是刚需,不是景气品。 这篇研报最有意思的点在于: 检测是底盘:客户重复率高(85%+),收入以实验室检测为主(FY24:93.6%) ESG 是增量:新加坡 FY2025 起强制披露 Scope 1/2,马来西亚也在分阶段推进——第三方鉴证需求只会越来越多 财务质量很硬:FY24 净利率 20.5%,EBITDA margin 36%,还带净现金(RM 9.8m) 研报给的锚点也很直接:目标价 S$0.44(较 S$0.35 约 +26%)。 这不是爆发型故事,更像是监管推着走的“确定性生意”,市场现在还没认真按平台去定价。 [财迷]  留言告诉我星股你看好哪支?我来解读研报
可能是上半年最被低估的新交所上市公司

Salesforce 3QFY26: AI Revenue Is Exploding — Is CRM Entering Its Next Supercycle?

$赛富时(CRM)$   Salesforce just posted one of its strongest AI-driven quarters yet. 🔥 AI ARR jumped 114% YoY (Agentforce + Data 360) 🔥 Agentforce ARR surged 330% YoY, with over 3.2 trillion tokens processed 🔥 The company closed 9,500 Agentforce deals — up 50% QoQ Meanwhile, operating margin improved and cRPO growth outpaced expectations. Management now believes AI will be a multi-year growth engine, with FY30 revenue still tracking toward US$60B. But here’s the key question: Is Salesforce becoming the leading enterprise AI agent platform, or is the market already pricing in perfection? What’s your take on CRM right now?
Salesforce 3QFY26: AI Revenue Is Exploding — Is CRM Entering Its Next Supercycle?

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