yyykkk的个人主页 - 老虎社区

yyykkk

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2021-03-07

$英特尔(INTC)$ 我已经重仓买入了英特，通用汽车， rkt ， ccl ， NLS 的看涨期权，

2021-05-22

可以毫不客气的说，小米无论做什么都像模仿华为产品的拙劣的山寨地摊货，永远在模仿，从来没被认可和赢得名声

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-03-07

$Rocket Companies(RKT)$ 我周五收盘时买入了40手的看涨期权，感觉基本调整到位，下周应该会有一波上涨行情，拭目以待

2021-07-14

$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想

2021-05-21

煞有介事，装腔作势

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-05-28

整个行业已经崩溃了

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-04-17

ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-17

好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议，完全不符合常识

Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>

2021-07-16

$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊

2021-05-28

这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值

抱歉，原内容已删除

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Holdings(NU)。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PFE":1,"AMZN":1,"ARKK":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2904,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":605100876,"gmtCreate":1639124034011,"gmtModify":1639124034011,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","listText":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","text":"贾骗子也要穷途末路了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/605100876","repostId":"2190400476","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":871429743,"gmtCreate":1637107136414,"gmtModify":1637107136414,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","listText":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","text":"直接加个零卖给下家，这些股票真是吓死我了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/871429743","repostId":"1125979652","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125979652","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"全球第五大财经门户网站Investing.com中国官方微信，提供全球各国海量金融资讯和实时行情数据，包括股票股指、外汇、期货、基金、债券、加密货币等。关注全球金融市场动态的投资者千万不可错过。","home_visible":1,"media_name":"英为财情Investing","id":"92","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313"},"pubTimestamp":1637058775,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1125979652?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-16 18:32","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"千亿市值不是梦，Lucid上升潜力巨大","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125979652","media":"英为财情Investing","summary":"一直被视为特斯拉最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。\n财报亮点颇多\n财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元","content":"<p>一直被视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。</p>\n<p><b>财报亮点颇多</b></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。</p>\n<p>虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。</p>\n<p>巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5a25063a413be165056ef7e7ea3dcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lucid走势图，来源：Investing.com</p>\n<p><b>产品本身是关键</b></p>\n<p>抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。</p>\n<p>Lucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。</p>\n<p>在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。</p>\n<p>不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。</p>\n<p>目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。</p>\n<p>消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？</p>\n<p><b>产能稳固提高</b></p>\n<p>Lucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。</p>\n<p>展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。</p>\n<p>产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。</p>\n<p><b>升值潜力大</b></p>\n<p>Lucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a> (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。</p>\n<p>不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。</p>\n<p>Rivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>千亿市值不是梦，Lucid上升潜力巨大</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ 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margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n千亿市值不是梦，Lucid上升潜力巨大\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/92\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/406e2b4996e14cd8a66a2a6864ef4313);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">英为财情Investing </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-11-16 18:32</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>一直被视为<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。</p>\n<p><b>财报亮点颇多</b></p>\n<p>财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。</p>\n<p>虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。</p>\n<p>巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd5a25063a413be165056ef7e7ea3dcb\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"462\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Lucid走势图，来源：Investing.com</p>\n<p><b>产品本身是关键</b></p>\n<p>抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/002594\">比亚迪</a>等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。</p>\n<p>Lucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。</p>\n<p>在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。</p>\n<p>不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。</p>\n<p>目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。</p>\n<p>消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？</p>\n<p><b>产能稳固提高</b></p>\n<p>Lucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。</p>\n<p>展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。</p>\n<p>产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。</p>\n<p><b>升值潜力大</b></p>\n<p>Lucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a> (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。</p>\n<p>不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。</p>\n<p>Rivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMZN\">亚马逊</a>和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。</p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/feab65090845d7956ac1858c7f62d5db","relate_stocks":{"LCID":"Lucid Group Inc"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125979652","content_text":"一直被视为特斯拉最主要竞争对手之一的Lucid Group (NASDAQ:LCID)在美东时间11月15日（周一）美股盘后公布了三季度业绩报告。\n财报亮点颇多\n财报显示，第三季度营收为23.2万美元，低于市场普遍预期的125万美元，也低于去年同期的33.4万美元，同比下降31%;净亏损5.24亿美元，上年同期为1.61亿美元，同比扩大225%;摊薄后每股亏损0.43美元，上年同期为6.64美元。此外，该公司目前的现金余额为 48 亿美元。\n虽然财报并不亮眼，但是好消息是Lucid刚刚发布的电动汽车Air已经获得了超过1.7万份订单，预计订单金额超过13亿美元。值得一提的是上个月的订单量就超过 13,000 台，表明其订单增长迅速。该公司预计明年将生产2万辆汽车。\n巨额现金、订单增长和未来产量令人浮想联翩，财报公布后，在11月15日的尾盘交易中，Lucid股价上涨4%。\nLucid走势图，来源：Investing.com\n产品本身是关键\n抛开资本、运营、产能等问题，一个汽车公司最大核心是其所制造的汽车本身。特斯拉和比亚迪等新能源车商之所以能有如此高的成就，离不开其过硬的产品实力。\nLucid的核心竞争力在于一定程度上解决了“续航焦虑”，单次充电最远可行驶520英里（EPA认证续航里程，约837公里），是美国市场上销售的电动汽车中续航最长的车型，它原本对标的特斯拉超长续航车型Model S Plaid+生产早已取消。\n在最近的MotorTrend年度最佳汽车奖评中，Lucid Air击败一众对手，荣获“年度汽车”奖。Lucid Air在效率、价值、设计先进性、工程卓越性、安全性和预期功能的性能六项关键标准中表现出色，击败了包括奔驰EQS和保时捷Taycan等24名竞争对手。\n不过Lucid Air是一款新车，产品质量还需市场进一步检验。\n目前Lucid Air的售价为16.9万美元（约合104万人民币左右），即使未来较低配置的车型也要13.9万美元，这个价格比特斯拉最顶配的轿跑车型Model S Plaid的售价12.3740美元，还要贵上不少。\n消费者是否会为了购买一台新上市的电动车而付出如此高昂的价格呢？\n产能稳固提高\nLucid位于亚利桑那州卡萨格兰德的先进制造工厂(AMP-1)已投入运营，年产量可达3.4万辆。预计到 2023年底，产能将达到每年9万辆。第二阶段的扩建预计将增加285万平方英尺的生产面积，并将进一步垂直整合生产流程。\n展望未来，Lucid 首席执行官Peter Rawlinson表示看到市场对Lucid Air的巨大需求，随着亚利桑那州工厂的生产规模扩大，预订量也在加快增长。公司仍有望在2022年实现生产2万辆汽车的目标。但是他也承认，全球供应链的持续中断可能会带来风险，该公司正在采取措施来降低这一风险。\n产能的提高对于车企来说至关重要，规模化意味着成本将会下降，也意味着更大的定价空间。就像特斯拉一样，在规模扩大之后，随着成本下降，特斯拉也在不断地下调其电动车的售价。\n升值潜力大\nLucid目前市值约为726亿美元，比同为造车新势力的蔚来汽车 (NYSE:NIO)406亿美元和小鹏汽车 (NYSE:XPEV)303亿美元高很多，但是比第一梯队特斯拉 (NASDAQ:TSLA)1万亿美元和比亚迪 (SZ:002594)1360亿美元还是差上不少。\n不过值得一提的是，一辆车都还没有卖刚上市四天估值就已经达到1300亿美元，仅次于比亚迪的Rivian(NASDAQ:RIVN)，已经成为全球市值第五的汽车制造商，要知道特斯拉当初上市市值也只有20亿美元。\nRivian和Lucid一个主打电动SUV和皮卡，一个主打电动轿车，但是不论从哪个角度来看Lucid都不比Rivian要差，甚至很多方面都要强于Rivian。不能仅仅是因为其背靠亚马逊和福特市值就可以比Lucid高出将近一倍。若以Rivian为标准的话，Lucid显然是被低估了，而且上升潜力也更大。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LCID":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3294,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866999903,"gmtCreate":1632718286202,"gmtModify":1632718506955,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","listText":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","text":"坐看看空美光的被打脸","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866999903","repostId":"2170645634","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2170645634","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1632713105,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2170645634?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 11:25","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2170645634","media":"新浪财经","summary":"　　美光科技将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。　　该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。　　在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。　　Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MU\">美光科技</a>（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。</p>\n<p>该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/893e998d1767599e575186603826c2d7\" tg-width=\"578\" tg-height=\"315\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>需要考虑的因素</p>\n<p>在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。</p>\n<p>疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。</p>\n<p>预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。</p>\n<p>不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。</p>\n<p>此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。</p>\n<p>另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。</p>\n<p>Zacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。</p>","source":"sina_us","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n尽管芯片需求强劲，分析师预计美光科技Q4业绩难超预期\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-09-27 11:25 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml><strong>新浪财经</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b81c0c0111c68e734ad1f1bf2673e76","relate_stocks":{"159813":"芯片","MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/usstock/c/2021-09-27/doc-iktzscyx6559050.shtml","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2170645634","content_text":"美光科技（MU.US）将于9月28日公布2021年第四季度财报。 Zacks预期其Q4调整后每股收益为 2.31 美元，同比增长113.9%；预计营收为81.9 亿美元，同比增长35.3%。\n该公司在过去四个季度的收益都超过了Zacks的共识估计，平均较预期高出7.7%。\n\n需要考虑的因素\n在家工作和学习的情况刺激了个人电脑制造商和数据中心运营商对芯片的大量需求，预计这将推动美光科技第四季度业绩。\n疫情期间的远程工作和在线学习趋势也促进了对云存储的需求。 此外，封锁促进了全球在线和电子商务服务的使用，迫使数据中心运营商增加容量，以适应云服务的需求激增。 这些因素都可能提高美光在本季度的营收。\n预计第四季度的云计算、图形、个人电脑和笔记本电脑、5G和汽车市场的DRAM Bit出货量稳步上升。\n不过，利润率较低的 NAND产品的占比上升，加上内存价格较低且制造成本难以下降，预计将使利润率吃紧。\n此外，更高的预审费用和人工费用可能对美光公司第四季度的业绩产生负面影响。 在第二季度的财报电话会议上，该公司指出，由于预审费用和人工费用的增加，预计2021财年下半年的运营费用将增加。\n另外，由于恢复加薪，预计第四季度的运营费用将大幅增加。 这可能会损害季度利润率和盈利能力。\nZacks予美光科技的评级为4（卖出），根据模型，美光本季度的收益可能不会超过预期。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"159813":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":888688797,"gmtCreate":1631493521719,"gmtModify":1631493521719,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","listText":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","text":"有没有人像我这样，对这些内容完全看不懂，也不知道这些技术和发展到底是为了什么，对社会和进步是什么用的？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/888688797","repostId":"1132461050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3645,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":817506645,"gmtCreate":1630973125687,"gmtModify":1630973125687,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","listText":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","text":"厌恶wood， 天天鼓吹不靠谱泡沐","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817506645","repostId":"1101678797","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839766262,"gmtCreate":1629182819256,"gmtModify":1629182819256,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","listText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","text":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766262","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其行业报告《内存——冬天即将来临》中将美光（纳斯达克：MU）评级下调至与跑赢大盘同等的权重。MM警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，可能导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其行业报告《内存——冬天即将来临》中将美光（纳斯达克：MU）评级下调至与跑赢大盘同等的权重。MM警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，可能导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":173636961,"gmtCreate":1626656728353,"gmtModify":1626656728353,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","listText":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","text":"匹夫无罪 怀璧有罪， 台积电就是美国砧板上的肉","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173636961","repostId":"2152283687","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"2152283687","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626631712,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2152283687?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-19 02:08","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国工程师去了台积电总部！刘德音放出猛料，3nm还能保住吗？","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2152283687","media":"腾讯新闻","summary":"7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。台积电有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期12到18个月的培训。这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。","content":"<html><body><article><p>7月15日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSM\">台积电</a>发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；<span>净利润</span>为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约2300亿元）。</p><p>台积电</p><p>有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。这种说法其实挺勉强的，毕竟该公司的毛利率仅仅下滑了0.5%，其中又包含了<span>汇率</span>不利和插单生产车用芯片的因素。尤其是后者，台积电总裁魏哲家称“上半年的车用MCU产量，比去年同期提升了30%”。<strong>这30%靠的是“super hot run”（超级急件），也就是放着高利润的消费电子芯片订单不生产，优先为车企服务。</strong></p><p>张忠谋</p><p>既然毛利率下滑，不代表台积电盈利能力下降，那么财报呈现的便只剩利好。如此一来，股票被抛售的根源，自然指向了在线法说会。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。<strong>其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期</strong><strong>12到18个月的</strong><strong>培训。</strong>而此前传出的消息是，创始人张忠谋吐槽美国员工上班不积极，台积电开出三倍薪资，调本土工程师去美国。</p><p>刘德音（图右）</p><p>在当时，人们想到的是刘德音在答应建厂时，说的那句“台积电会把核心技术留在老家”。可是现在，给人的感觉却是“教哪些东西，哪些东西保密，未必由台积电决定”。尤其5月17日，路透社爆料：<strong>台积电感受到<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SMSN.UK\">三星</a>跑到德州建3nm工厂的压力，正计划在亚利桑那州建设3nm乃至2nm的晶圆代工厂。</strong>这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？</p><p>三星</p><p>倘若台积电的坦诚，能够换来同等的诚意，这件事也算是塞翁失马。遗憾的是，建厂前许诺的蜜月期，大概率是一张口头支票。台积电出发前，得到的信息是“提振美国半导体”，即过去帮忙。结果6月8日，自己就被列入了对方的“安全威胁名单”。不仅如此，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/INTC\">英特尔</a>CEO帕特·基尔辛格还在7月7日，给出了一条这样的建议：<strong>540亿美元的</strong><strong>半导体扶持资金，应该用在税收总部、工厂、专利都在美国的公司。</strong></p><p>基尔辛格</p><p>当初富士康赴美建厂的时候，好歹获得了一句“世界第八大奇迹”的称赞。如果后续招人顺利的话，未必拿不到被许诺的补贴。相形之下，台积电的建厂体验，差的不是一点半点。<strong>要知道，</strong><strong>台积电</strong><strong>在</strong><strong>亚利桑那州</strong><strong>的工厂，</strong><strong>聘请</strong><strong>的</strong><strong>人力资源主管Benjamin Miller</strong><strong>（</strong><strong>本杰明·米勒</strong><strong>），在英特尔工作了25年时间。</strong>与其说这是挖人，不如说是合作。结果八字还没一撇，英特尔竟然直接摊牌：自己其实连补贴都不想给台积电。</p><p>英特尔</p><p>既然处境如此尴尬，台积电肯定也要另做打算，争取保证自己的灵活性。<strong>这就不得不提到，刘德音的第二则猛料“台积电的布局，有客户需求与生产成本等诸多考量，目前谈论‘是否会在日本大量制造’，仍然太早”。</strong>台积电追求自主的主要手段，就是在南京、日本和德国建厂。此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。现在刘德音又亲口确认，台积电正纠结产出的问题，不一定会在日本建厂。那么剩下的，就只有德国。</p><p>格罗方德</p><p>可是基尔辛格已经在早前表态，英特尔有去欧洲建厂的相关计划。再结合台积电保护自有技术过程中，所表现出来的被动，以及基尔辛格绝对算不上友好的态度，德国未必是一个好选择。就在7月16日，科创板日报还曝出“英特尔打算收购格罗方德”的消息。<strong>格罗方德是全球第四大晶圆代工厂，技术停留在10nm工艺以上，对英特尔的主要价值是客户。</strong>台积电答应建厂之前，英特尔也没说自己要代工。如今却加速回归，恐怕是来者不善，台积电还能去哪？（李双喜）</p></article></body></html>","source":"tencent","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" 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#eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国工程师去了台积电总部！刘德音放出猛料，3nm还能保住吗？\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-07-19 02:08 北京时间&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b><strong>腾讯新闻</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；净利润为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约...</p>\n\n<a href=\"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b\">网页链接</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/975836d8c6eb511241583dccb0d387f2","relate_stocks":{"EWT":"台湾ETF-iShares MSCI","TSM":"台积电","03145":"华夏亚洲高息股"},"source_url":"http://gu.qq.com/resources/shy/news/detail-v2/index.html#/?id=nesSN202107190221137c21eb53&s=b","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/9a95c1376e76363c1401fee7d3717173","article_id":"2152283687","content_text":"7月15日，台积电发布了第二季度财报，并就此召开了在线法说会。财报显示：台积电当季营收为3721.45亿元新台币（约861.91亿元），同比增长19.8%，超出市场预期；净利润为1343.59亿元新台币（约311.18亿元），同比增长11.2%，比预期利润少了1.31%。换成一般的公司，净利润略低于预期，而营收创纪录，仍属于重大利好。但台积电等来的却是，发布财报当天，市值蒸发355亿美元（约2300亿元）。台积电有分析称，这是因为台积电的盈利能力下降了，所以投资者才会兴趣大减。这种说法其实挺勉强的，毕竟该公司的毛利率仅仅下滑了0.5%，其中又包含了汇率不利和插单生产车用芯片的因素。尤其是后者，台积电总裁魏哲家称“上半年的车用MCU产量，比去年同期提升了30%”。这30%靠的是“super hot run”（超级急件），也就是放着高利润的消费电子芯片订单不生产，优先为车企服务。张忠谋既然毛利率下滑，不代表台积电盈利能力下降，那么财报呈现的便只剩利好。如此一来，股票被抛售的根源，自然指向了在线法说会。会上，台积电董事长刘德音放出了两则猛料。其一是100多名美国工程师，带着家属去了台积电总部，将接受为期12到18个月的培训。而此前传出的消息是，创始人张忠谋吐槽美国员工上班不积极，台积电开出三倍薪资，调本土工程师去美国。刘德音（图右）在当时，人们想到的是刘德音在答应建厂时，说的那句“台积电会把核心技术留在老家”。可是现在，给人的感觉却是“教哪些东西，哪些东西保密，未必由台积电决定”。尤其5月17日，路透社爆料：台积电感受到三星跑到德州建3nm工厂的压力，正计划在亚利桑那州建设3nm乃至2nm的晶圆代工厂。这是台积电最先进的技术，到时候美国工程师可能又要去总部学习，叫投资者如何不担心？三星倘若台积电的坦诚，能够换来同等的诚意，这件事也算是塞翁失马。遗憾的是，建厂前许诺的蜜月期，大概率是一张口头支票。台积电出发前，得到的信息是“提振美国半导体”，即过去帮忙。结果6月8日，自己就被列入了对方的“安全威胁名单”。不仅如此，英特尔CEO帕特·基尔辛格还在7月7日，给出了一条这样的建议：540亿美元的半导体扶持资金，应该用在税收总部、工厂、专利都在美国的公司。基尔辛格当初富士康赴美建厂的时候，好歹获得了一句“世界第八大奇迹”的称赞。如果后续招人顺利的话，未必拿不到被许诺的补贴。相形之下，台积电的建厂体验，差的不是一点半点。要知道，台积电在亚利桑那州的工厂，聘请的人力资源主管Benjamin Miller（本杰明·米勒），在英特尔工作了25年时间。与其说这是挖人，不如说是合作。结果八字还没一撇，英特尔竟然直接摊牌：自己其实连补贴都不想给台积电。英特尔既然处境如此尴尬，台积电肯定也要另做打算，争取保证自己的灵活性。这就不得不提到，刘德音的第二则猛料“台积电的布局，有客户需求与生产成本等诸多考量，目前谈论‘是否会在日本大量制造’，仍然太早”。台积电追求自主的主要手段，就是在南京、日本和德国建厂。此前，南京28nm工厂扩产计划被叫停。现在刘德音又亲口确认，台积电正纠结产出的问题，不一定会在日本建厂。那么剩下的，就只有德国。格罗方德可是基尔辛格已经在早前表态，英特尔有去欧洲建厂的相关计划。再结合台积电保护自有技术过程中，所表现出来的被动，以及基尔辛格绝对算不上友好的态度，德国未必是一个好选择。就在7月16日，科创板日报还曝出“英特尔打算收购格罗方德”的消息。格罗方德是全球第四大晶圆代工厂，技术停留在10nm工艺以上，对英特尔的主要价值是客户。台积电答应建厂之前，英特尔也没说自己要代工。如今却加速回归，恐怕是来者不善，台积电还能去哪？（李双喜）","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TWmain":1,"TSM":1,"EWT":0.6,"03145":0.6}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":5737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170802548,"gmtCreate":1626417041784,"gmtModify":1626417041784,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TDOC\">$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$</a> 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","text":"$Teladoc Health Inc.(TDOC)$ 这个股票的合理价位应该再跌一半，耐心等着吧，别抱有短期的幻想","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145459918","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3144,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":142282799,"gmtCreate":1626152964811,"gmtModify":1626152964811,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"不知所云","listText":"不知所云","text":"不知所云","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142282799","repostId":"1126488208","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1937,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":140050708,"gmtCreate":1625620686804,"gmtModify":1625620686804,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 请问哪位知道CRSR 的Q2 财报发布日期？","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140050708","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":154488868,"gmtCreate":1625538995354,"gmtModify":1625538995354,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"典型双标文章","listText":"典型双标文章","text":"典型双标文章","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154488868","repostId":"2149074334","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1727,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":156880193,"gmtCreate":1625210385012,"gmtModify":1625210385012,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","listText":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","text":"存储的需求怎么了能降低呢，远不止PC 场景啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/156880193","repostId":"1174610224","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1174610224","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625188786,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1174610224?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-02 09:19","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光科技和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1174610224","media":"thestreet","summary":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) wa","content":"<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;(<b>MU</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;was bucking the trend.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技(<b>穆</b>)-Get报告和其他芯片股周四下跌，但英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）正在逆势而上。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;(<b>SOXX</b>) &nbsp;was down 1.4% at closing. Micron,&nbsp;the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX半导体ETF（<b>SOXX</b>）收盘下跌1.4%。基准芯片指数跌幅最大的美光科技下跌5.7%，至80.11美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials&nbsp;(<b>AMAT</b>), down 3.1%; Lam Research&nbsp;(<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments&nbsp;(<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;was off nearly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>周四下跌的其他半导体行业公司包括应用材料公司（<b>阿马特</b>），下跌3.1%；Lam Research（<b>LRCX</b>)-获取报告，折扣2.7%，德州仪器(<b>TXN</b>)-Get报告下跌近1%。</blockquote></p><p> Video Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%</p><p><blockquote>视频预览：加密的基础如何改变金融科技-VanEckWatch这个独家对话，区块链的演变：加密的基础如何改变金融科技。由VanEck赞助的premiere专家免费网络研讨会。体积90%</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>然而，BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava将这家芯片巨头的目标股价从75美元上调至1,000美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级后，英伟达股价上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博称，这家位于加州圣克拉拉的公司的目标是华尔街最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology shares fell even after the&nbsp;company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技公布第三财季每股净收入增长了一倍多，收入增长了36%，但该公司股价仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share.&nbsp;Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月3日的季度，美光科技盈利17.4亿美元，即每股1.52美元，而去年同期为8.03亿美元，即每股71美分。最新调整后每股收益为1.88美元。营收从54.4亿美元达到74.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.</p><p><blockquote>据the Fly报道，多位分析师上调了美光科技的目标价，但瑞银分析师蒂莫西·阿库里(Timothy Arcuri)将该公司的目标价从120美元下调至110美元，同时维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司的周期评论应该解决投资者对可持续性的担忧，但管理层对成本和资本支出的展望“影响”了2022年自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)表示：“很多人说‘个人电脑已见顶’，这对美光科技不利。”</blockquote></p><p> Cramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look&nbsp;everything is on allocation.'\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默补充说，首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉“没有说出我想听到的话，即‘看，一切都在分配中。’”</blockquote></p><p> \"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因为他没有这样做，”克莱默说，“人们会说‘你知道吗，是时候专注于其他半决赛了，走上食物链的上游，而不是下游。’那就是英伟达。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光科技和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron and Chip Stocks Drop but Nvidia Climbs<blockquote>美光科技和芯片股下跌，但英伟达上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-02 09:19</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Micron Technology&nbsp;(<b>MU</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia&nbsp;(<b>NVDA</b>)&nbsp;was bucking the trend.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技(<b>穆</b>)-Get报告和其他芯片股周四下跌，但英伟达(<b>NVDA</b>）正在逆势而上。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;(<b>SOXX</b>) &nbsp;was down 1.4% at closing. Micron,&nbsp;the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.</p><p><blockquote>iShares PHLX半导体ETF（<b>SOXX</b>）收盘下跌1.4%。基准芯片指数跌幅最大的美光科技下跌5.7%，至80.11美元。</blockquote></p><p> Other semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials&nbsp;(<b>AMAT</b>), down 3.1%; Lam Research&nbsp;(<b>LRCX</b>) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments&nbsp;(<b>TXN</b>) -Get Report&nbsp;was off nearly 1%.</p><p><blockquote>周四下跌的其他半导体行业公司包括应用材料公司（<b>阿马特</b>），下跌3.1%；Lam Research（<b>LRCX</b>)-获取报告，折扣2.7%，德州仪器(<b>TXN</b>)-Get报告下跌近1%。</blockquote></p><p> Video Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%</p><p><blockquote>视频预览：加密的基础如何改变金融科技-VanEckWatch这个独家对话，区块链的演变：加密的基础如何改变金融科技。由VanEck赞助的premiere专家免费网络研讨会。体积90%</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.</p><p><blockquote>然而，BMO资本市场分析师Ambrish Srivastava将这家芯片巨头的目标股价从75美元上调至1,000美元，并确认跑赢大盘评级后，英伟达股价上涨1.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.</p><p><blockquote>据彭博称，这家位于加州圣克拉拉的公司的目标是华尔街最高的。</blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology shares fell even after the&nbsp;company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.</p><p><blockquote>尽管美光科技公布第三财季每股净收入增长了一倍多，收入增长了36%，但该公司股价仍下跌。</blockquote></p><p> For the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share.&nbsp;Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至6月3日的季度，美光科技盈利17.4亿美元，即每股1.52美元，而去年同期为8.03亿美元，即每股71美分。最新调整后每股收益为1.88美元。营收从54.4亿美元达到74.2亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Several analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.</p><p><blockquote>据the Fly报道，多位分析师上调了美光科技的目标价，但瑞银分析师蒂莫西·阿库里(Timothy Arcuri)将该公司的目标价从120美元下调至110美元，同时维持买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> He noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，该公司的周期评论应该解决投资者对可持续性的担忧，但管理层对成本和资本支出的展望“影响”了2022年自由现金流。</blockquote></p><p> TheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"</p><p><blockquote>TheStreet创始人吉姆·克莱默(Jim Cramer)表示：“很多人说‘个人电脑已见顶’，这对美光科技不利。”</blockquote></p><p> Cramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look&nbsp;everything is on allocation.'\"</p><p><blockquote>克莱默补充说，首席执行官桑杰·梅赫罗特拉“没有说出我想听到的话，即‘看，一切都在分配中。’”</blockquote></p><p> \"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"</p><p><blockquote>“因为他没有这样做，”克莱默说，“人们会说‘你知道吗，是时候专注于其他半决赛了，走上食物链的上游，而不是下游。’那就是英伟达。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO\">thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMAT":"应用材料","LRCX":"拉姆研究","TXN":"德州仪器","MU":"美光科技","NVDA":"英伟达"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/micron-sinks-most-chip-stocks-but-nvidia-climbs?puc=yahoo&cm_ven=YAHOO","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1174610224","content_text":"Micron Technology (MU) -Get Report and other chip stocks were falling Thursday, but Nvidia (NVDA) was bucking the trend.\nThe iShares PHLX Semiconductor ETF (SOXX)  was down 1.4% at closing. Micron, the biggest decliner in the benchmark chip index, fell 5.7% to $80.11.\nOther semiconductor industry companies losing ground Thursday included Applied Materials (AMAT), down 3.1%; Lam Research (LRCX) -Get Report, off 2.7%, and Texas Instruments (TXN) -Get Report was off nearly 1%.\nVideo Preview: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech - VanEckWatch this exclusive conversation, The Evolution of Blockchain: How the Foundation of Crypto Is Changing Fintech. A free webinar with premiere experts, sponsored by VanEck.Volume 90%\nShares of Nvidia, however, were up 1.1%, afterBMO Capital Marketsanalyst Ambrish Srivastava raised his price target on the chip titan to $1,000 from $75 and affirmed an outperform rating.\nThe target on the Santa Clara, Calif., company is the highest on Wall Street, according to Bloomberg.\nMicron Technology shares fell even after the company reportedfiscal-third-quarternet income per share more than doubled on 36% higher revenue.\nFor the quarter ended June 3, Micron earned $1.74 billion, or $1.52 a share, compared with $803 million, or 71 cents, in the year-earlier quarter. The latest adjusted earnings were $1.88 a share. Revenue reached $7.42 billion from $5.44 billion.\nSeveral analysts raised their price targets for Micron, but UBS analyst Timothy Arcuri lowered the firm's price target to $110 from $120, while keeping a buy rating, according to the Fly.\nHe noted that the company's cycle commentary should address investors' concerns regarding sustainability, but the management's outlook on cost and capital expenditures \"take a bite\" out of 2022 free cash flows.\nTheStreet FounderJim Cramer said\"there's a lot of people saying 'PCs peaked,' and that's bad for Micron.\"\nCramer added that CEO Sanjay Mehrotra \"did not say what I wanted to hear, which is, 'look everything is on allocation.'\"\n\"And because he didn’t do that,\" Cramer said, \"people are saying 'you know what, it’s time to focus on other semis, and go up the food chain, not down.' And that would be Nvidia.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9,"TXN":0.9,"MU":0.9,"LRCX":0.9,"AMAT":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":116051951,"gmtCreate":1622767200073,"gmtModify":1622767200073,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","listText":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","text":"此时不割韭菜更待何时？不同意增发天理不容","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116051951","repostId":"2140732964","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1483,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":110924791,"gmtCreate":1622422675613,"gmtModify":1622422675613,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","listText":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","text":"实在非常讨厌这种中国的大平台企业，到底有什么价值？美团挣的每分钱都是其他企业的几倍损失和多少人的失业，从国家来看总体是损失","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/110924791","repostId":"1181277246","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1181277246","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"关注消费领域的财经新媒体","home_visible":1,"media_name":"斑马消费","id":"1062589793","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619"},"pubTimestamp":1622419072,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181277246?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-31 07:57","market":"hk","language":"zh","title":"王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181277246","media":"斑马消费","summary":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要","content":"<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n王兴的无限战争，美团的烧钱无底洞\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1062589793\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/96a44abb8f6e4a7f9ab19581f07af619);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">斑马消费 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-05-31 07:57</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。</p>\n<p>只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。</p>\n<p>而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。<b>扩张无止境，战火永不停。</b></p>\n<p>持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？</p>\n<p><b>一季度亏损48.46亿元</b></p>\n<p>5月28日，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/03690\">美团-W</a>披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。</p>\n<p>即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。</p>\n<p><b>今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录</b>，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。</p>\n<p>但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。</p>\n<p><b>对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。</b></p>\n<p>2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。</p>\n<p>上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。</p>\n<p>2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。</p>\n<p>不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。</p>\n<p>斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于<b>公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。</b></p>\n<p>原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/35379da5b734064bbfc80ae81d50d115\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p><b>王兴的无限战争</b></p>\n<p>美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。</p>\n<p>字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/01896\">猫眼娱乐</a>，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。</p>\n<p>其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。</p>\n<p>王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。</p>\n<p>一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。</p>\n<p>不过，整体而言，<b>美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。</b></p>\n<p>2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。</p>\n<p>截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。</p>\n<p>注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，<b>拉新的前提是烧钱</b>，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。</p>\n<p>越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。</p>\n<p>除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PDD\">拼多多</a>和阿里<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JD\">京东</a>苏宁，慌不慌？</p>\n<p>为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？</p>\n<p><b>美团真的没有边界吗？</b></p>\n<p>作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。</p>\n<p>“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。<b>只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”</b></p>\n<p>理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/128c68d7e383dee6f01c979244187ee8\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"544\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？</p>\n<p>当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。</p>\n<p>企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。</p>\n<p>面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。</p>\n<p>王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，<b>竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。</b></p>\n<p>做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。</p>\n<p>而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/196695de414cfc7dd66ff169a221180b\" tg-width=\"1080\" tg-height=\"720\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>拼多多、滴滴、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴</a>等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。</p>\n<p>好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。</p>\n<p>此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。</p>\n<p>4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。</p>\n<p>短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，<b>是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？</b></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e1238455e09ac8d1135014cb37eb0f4d","relate_stocks":{"03690":"美团-W","QNETCN":"纳斯达克中美互联网老虎指数"},"is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181277246","content_text":"2020年录得盈利后，美团在2021年Q1业绩大变脸，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n实际上，2020年盈利，主要也是因为投资的理想汽车美股上市、股价飙升，主营业务仍然是巨亏。\n只要2020年中爆发的社区团购烧钱大战，不以巨头们找到稳定增长与合理盈利的平衡而结束，这一波亏损便会持续下去。\n而且，在王兴“边界论”的指挥下，美团正在不断将新业务纳入到拼杀版图中来，比如最近开始崭露头角的团好货。扩张无止境，战火永不停。\n持续的亏损、对手的围堵，都没能让王兴的战鼓歇下来，反垄断能让它停下指挥棒吗？\n一季度亏损48.46亿元\n5月28日，美团-W披露2021年Q1业绩公告，公司收入370.16亿元，同比增长120.94%，净利润-48.46亿元，同比下降206.90%。\n即便剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，更能反映公司主营业务盈利情况的经调整亏损额，当期也达到38.92亿元。\n今年一季度，美团的营业收入增长率超过120%，创下公司上市以来单季度收入增长的最高纪录，主要原因为公司三大业务均实现收入翻倍增长。其中增速最高的新业务及其他板块（主要为社区团购），收入同比增长了135.45%。\n但是，亏损也是来自这个板块。今年1-3月，公司餐饮外卖和到店、酒店及旅游，分别实现经营利润11.16亿元和27.48亿元，但扛不住新业务亏掉80.44亿元，导致公司整体净利润为负。\n对于仍处于成长期的美团来说，亏损一直是常态。\n2015年-2018年，公司净利润分别为-105.19亿元、-57.95亿元、-189.88亿元、-1154.93亿元。同样剔除可转换可赎回优先股公允价值变动等因素后，公司经调整净利润分别为-59.14亿元、-53.53亿元、-28.53亿元、-85.17亿元。\n上市后的第一年，美团终于盈利了一回。2019年，公司净利润14.60亿元，经调整净利润22.70亿元。然而，这十几亿业绩，剔除投资收益等项目，相对于公司近千亿收入，只能是聊胜于无。\n2020年，公司进军社区团购，推出美团优选，行业陷入熟悉的烧钱大战之中。\n不过，美团最终却奇迹般地实现了盈利。去年，公司收入、净利润分别为1147.95亿元、47.08亿元。\n斑马消费梳理后发现，这主要是由于公司金融投资的公允价值变动收益50亿元，以及其他收益净额32亿元。\n原来，美团投资的新能源汽车理想汽车，2020年7月美股上市，随后几个月股价飙升，最高价较发行价上涨了接近300%，该公司市值一度飙升至接近400亿美元左右。美团所持股份的价值也水涨船高。若剔除这些影响因素，公司仍然是巨亏的。\n\n王兴的无限战争\n美团王兴与字节跳动张一鸣均来自福建龙岩，2007年王兴创立饭否，张一鸣是其技术合伙人。两家公司的发展思路，也如出一辙。\n字节跳动依靠今日头条，陆续孵化出抖音、西瓜视频、悟空问答、懂车帝等产品；美团以起家的团购业务为核心，陆续拓展至外卖、酒店、出行、社区团购。现在独立成长的猫眼娱乐，就是从美团的电影票频道中孵化出来的。\n其中尤其以美团的裂变更为彻底，如今外卖、酒店这两大业务，都盖过了到店业务的风头。\n王兴像一位运筹帷幄的古代大将军，打下一座又一座城池，将之连成一片扩充势力范围后，再向更多更大的城池进攻。\n一方面，美团以现有的业务服务，来稳定现有客户群；另一方面，以用户规模为基础，开辟新业务，获取新用户，相辅相成。\n不过，整体而言，美团的用户和商户增长速度，增长恐难以持续。\n2018年-2020年，美团交易用户数目增长率分别为29.3%、12.5%、13.3%，活跃商家数目增长率分别为32.1%、7.1%、10.1%。\n截止2021年3月31日的12个月，公司交易用户数目达到5.69亿，同比增长26.9%，活跃商家数目710万，同比增长16.9%。\n注意，2020年以来的新增用户，绝大部分来自社区团购、闪购、单车等新业务，仅有少量由外卖等传统业务贡献。当然最重要的是，拉新的前提是烧钱，新业务去年亏损108.55亿元，今年仅一季度就亏掉了80.44亿元。\n越是在用户增长见顶、拉新成本上升的时候，越需要加快新业务的裂变速度。\n除了我们熟知的上述业务，美团正在积极布局电商，团好货已经占据了美团APP的核心分区之一，拼多多和阿里京东苏宁，慌不慌？\n为了增加用户时长，美团有没有可能学支付宝和携程，布局内容？坐拥如此大的流量，大多为高频使用，美团有没有可能像B站和快手那样，上几个赚钱最快的游戏产品？\n美团真的没有边界吗？\n作为企业家中的思想家和战略家，王兴在江湖中流传最广的便是“边界论”。\n“万物其实是没有简单边界的，所以我不认为要给自己设限。只要核心是清晰的——我们到底服务什么人？给他们提供什么服务？我们就会不断尝试各种业务。”\n理论上来说，只要坐拥海量用户，就可以不断地进行业务的多元化。比如说我们现在看到的，滴滴的社区团购、网易的养殖……都搞得有声有色。\n\n但是，美团真的可以无限扩张下去吗？\n当一家公司的业务足够庞杂，风险的积累往往超出想象。就以美团旗下的300万骑手而言，人们现在更关注骑手这个职业的收入与风险暴涨，系统与骑手的匹配，这都会无形中加大公司的投入。\n企业的战略平衡，最终落点都是资金。在一二级市场持续的输血下，即便连续多年巨额亏损，截止2021年3月底公司现金及现金等价物以及短期理财投资分别为178亿元和353亿元。\n面对社区团购、电商这一场又一场恶战，美团觉得这些钱可能还不够，4月底发公告准备通过发行可换股债券和新股，募资100亿美元。\n王兴不希望美团有边界，但是，竞争对手们想用业务围堵的方式，把美团困在边界内。\n做生意，要把朋友搞得多多的，把敌人搞得少少的。\n而美团正相反。进军酒店，把几乎一统OTA天下的携程，重新拉回战场；推出美团打车，收购摩拜，挤压的是滴滴的市场；就连共享充电宝这个并不大的市场，三电一兽短兵相接，因为美团进入，预期格局大不一样……\n\n拼多多、滴滴、阿里巴巴等巨头相继加入社区团购大战，学美团不断拓展边界、通过线下业务转化线上流量之外，一个不得不提的出发点，就是围堵美团——因为社区团购与美团的既有业务和战略布局最贴近。\n好一招围魏救赵，亦或是围点打援。\n此前京东前高管评论京东分拆上市时说，“拆了省的以后被反垄断”。在本地生活领域业务几乎无所不包的美团，当下正面临这样的烦恼。\n4月26日，市场监管总局发布通知，依法对美团涉嫌垄断行为立案调查。\n短期来看，会罚多少钱？中长期来看，是否会对美团的业务布局产生影响？王兴会不会就此重新梳理一下他的“边界论”？","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"03690":0.9,"QNETCN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3715,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":137528147,"gmtCreate":1622365584289,"gmtModify":1622365584289,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","listText":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","text":"比特币注定不会成为货币，因为作为法定货币是否有价值取决于一个国家主权和经济能力的背书，比特币只能作为投机资产在哪炒作，但不可能作为货币，完全不符合逻辑","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137528147","repostId":"1196267503","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2574,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135793571,"gmtCreate":1622181905493,"gmtModify":1622181905493,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","listText":"整个行业已经崩溃了","text":"整个行业已经崩溃了","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essenti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我周五收盘时买入了40手的看涨期权，感觉基本调整到位，下周应该会有一波上涨行情，拭目以待","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/320633248","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"3576903129122961","authorId":"3576903129122961","name":"人来人往1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54cec49f1e685203503377551826a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576903129122961","authorIdStr":"3576903129122961"},"content":"40手？目标股价多少？","text":"40手？目标股价多少？","html":"40手？目标股价多少？"},{"author":{"id":"3576903129122961","authorId":"3576903129122961","name":"人来人往1977","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1d54cec49f1e685203503377551826a8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"3576903129122961","authorIdStr":"3576903129122961"},"content":"股价翻个倍你就发达了","text":"股价翻个倍你就发达了","html":"股价翻个倍你就发达了"}],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":145459918,"gmtCreate":1626239801634,"gmtModify":1626239801634,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","listText":"ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","text":"ark 在制造大量的泡沫，尤其是非常不喜欢她对加密货币无时无刻的鼓吹","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/379066142","repostId":"2128985135","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":845,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839766262,"gmtCreate":1629182819256,"gmtModify":1629182819256,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","listText":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","text":"好内容，摩根斯坦利分析师内容我第一眼就觉得不可思议， 完全不符合常识","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839766262","repostId":"1162723925","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1162723925","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629170609,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1162723925?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 11:23","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1162723925","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其行业报告《内存——冬天即将来临》中将美光（纳斯达克：MU）评级下调至与跑赢大盘同等的权重。MM警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，可能导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Micron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMicron Technology: Winter May Be Coming, But Not This Year... Nor The Next<blockquote>美光科技：冬天可能来了，但今年不会……也不是下一个</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-17 11:23</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>The report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.</li>  <li>The report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72f0a26068ce9a56688977e5a0dd9578\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>borisyankov/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>摩根士丹利下调存储芯片评级是基于PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>该报告谈到了PC销量下降的问题，但没有认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加。</li><li>该报告关注的是DRAM现货价格，而不是占供应商ASP 90%的合同价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>borisyankov/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师在其行业报告《内存——冬天即将来临》中将美光（纳斯达克：MU）评级下调至与跑赢大盘同等的权重。MM警告称，DRAM内存业务即将降温，可能导致DRAM价格下降。</blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley noted that</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利指出，</blockquote></p><p>   “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”  Micron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>“DRAM状况正在失去动力，我们的拐点路标建议谨慎从这里开始，从周期中期到周期后期发生了变化，这种相变在历史上意味着远期回报面临着充满挑战的背景。”美光科技股价创下2020年3月16日以来最大单日百分比跌幅，当时下跌19.8%。MU过去一年的股价如图1所示，说明了过去几天的抛售以及自2021年4月12日达到高点以来下跌超过25%的情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ea0b20556a40eb39c18b7aa1ed295e1c\" tg-width=\"634\" tg-height=\"416\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 1</p><p><blockquote>图表1</blockquote></p><p> This article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.</p><p><blockquote>本文提供的数据驳斥了摩根士丹利提出的基本观点，即DRAM需求的恶化正在加速当前内存上行周期的结束，导致2022年1Q下行周期的开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Morgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM</b></p><p><blockquote><b>摩根士丹利对数据的误解#1 PC DRAM的百分比很小</b></blockquote></p><p> The first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “<i>Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"</i></p><p><blockquote>第一点是摩根士丹利强调PC DRAM价格侵蚀是DRAM市场低迷的先兆。为什么？因为PC仅占DRAM需求的15%，如图2所示，根据我们题为“<i>热门IC：人工智能、5G、CMOS图像传感器和存储芯片的市场分析。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b40e66f4b73b27303075791c19fe36f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 2</p><p><blockquote>图表2</blockquote></p><p> <b>#2 Increased DRAM content per PC</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#2每台PC的DRAM含量增加</b></blockquote></p><p> The 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.</p><p><blockquote>PC 15%的DRAM需求几乎不足以导致内存周期的停止。但这不是重点。摩根士丹利忽略了一个事实，即即使个人电脑市场放缓，每台个人电脑的DRAM含量每年都在增加。</blockquote></p><p> Chart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.</p><p><blockquote>图3显示了2015年至2023年间PC单位出货量。事实上，我的预测显示，个人电脑将在2022年和2023年下降，但这种下降是由于在与COVID疫情相关的工作/学习/居家订单期间对个人电脑的非凡需求之后，个人电脑需求正常化。2020年延续到2021年。</blockquote></p><p> Prior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年之前，个人电脑市场正在下降，我预计2022年和2023年相应的回报将正常化，每年下降几个百分点。我估计每台PC的DRAM内容将从2015年的5.5 GB增加到2023年的14 GB。在此期间增加了2.5倍。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5732cd4948d7209d76ccb4f7628560ab\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 3</p><p><blockquote>图表3</blockquote></p><p> Thus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.</p><p><blockquote>因此，尽管PC单元将减少，但DRAM内容将在未来两年内增加。但是考虑到每台PC的DRAM内容的增加，我们在图4中看到DRAM的增长非常不同。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7c21d24f41f7f77bc00c62ed82b44f62\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 4</p><p><blockquote>图表4</blockquote></p><p> <b>#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#3现货平均售价不同于合约平均售价</b></blockquote></p><p> Chart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.</p><p><blockquote>图5显示了现货ASP与合约ASP的DRAM数据比较。TrendForce和摩根士丹利报告的全部理由是2021年现货价格下跌，以及当前内存周期的结束。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b5a2774dcaff2d53edd141e0cc1e2d13\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"346\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">Chart 5</p><p><blockquote>图表5</blockquote></p><p> Why they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.</p><p><blockquote>为什么他们选择现货价格的下跌作为周期结束的催化剂，而选择合约价格的上涨作为内存强劲增长的催化剂，这是非理性和不合逻辑的。</blockquote></p><p> Importantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，PC销售（图3）和价格（图5）之间没有相关性。在图3中，个人电脑销量处于最低时期（2017年和2018年），而平均售价处于最高时期。因此，PC销售额和ASP之间存在反比关系，而不是增加MS预测可信度的直接关系。</blockquote></p><p> <b>#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>#4现货ASP是恐惧、不确定性和怀疑的函数（FUD因子）</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Also note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.</p><p><blockquote>另请注意，图5显示了2016年10月至2000年底期间跟踪的现货和合约价格。随后，现货价格与合约价格出现分歧，现货价格上涨，然后崩溃，而合约价格继续强劲增长，没有减弱。</blockquote></p><p> This bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.</p><p><blockquote>这种分歧显然是“半导体短缺”的结果，在这种情况下，由于感知到的内存短缺，现货市场的价格上涨，这被解释为不仅影响汽车，还影响每一个使用芯片的应用。</blockquote></p><p> TrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce试图解释短缺是由于PC供应商的库存造成的，我同意这一点，我也将其归因于2000年的DRAM崩溃。我在2021年6月24日的半导体深度市场时事通讯文章中讨论了库存和囤积是2000年和2020年的一个主要因素。</blockquote></p><p> However, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.</p><p><blockquote>然而，TrendForce在新闻稿中关于涨价下行压力的说法与图表5中合同价格持续上涨有增无减的数据背道而驰。</blockquote></p><p>   “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”  Spot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:</p><p><blockquote>“就合约市场而言，PC OEM目前的DRAM库存水平相对较高，因为他们提前大量储备了PC DRAM，预计即将出现短缺。不仅PC OEM的高DRAM库存给PC DRAM可能的价格上涨带来了下行压力，而且欧洲和美国逐步取消与COVID相关的限制也可能降低笔记本电脑的整体需求，从而拉低PC DRAM的整体需求。”现货价格基于买家愿意为带有恐惧、不确定性和怀疑暗流的物品支付的价格。例如，在我2021年6月19日发表的题为“美光科技：不短缺，强劲增长，时期”的SA文章中，来自评论者：</blockquote></p><p>   \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"  About 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.</p><p><blockquote>“而且，为了证实您的微控制器假设，我们最近被告知，我们将无法为我们现有的产品之一获得3美元的微控制器。我不知道这是否是瑞萨火灾的直接结果。但当我们查看现货市场时，该部分的报价为81美元（这不是打字错误）。所以现在我们必须重新设计该板以使用不同的部件。”大约10年前，我是一个太阳能电池诉讼案件的“专家证人”，投诉的基础是由于硅短缺，现货硅价格在几周内从每公吨35美元上涨到每公吨500多美元。一旦硅制造商开始生产更多的硅，价格就会下降。</blockquote></p><p> Both these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.</p><p><blockquote>这两个例子都说明现货价格对实际（合同）价格没有直接影响，而且通常是暂时的。</blockquote></p><p> Back to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).</p><p><blockquote>回到DRAM周期将根据现货价格结束的错误论点，我在图6中显示了支持性数据，表明他们的数据是错误的。此图表显示了美光、三星电子(OTC：SSNLF)和SK海力士(OTC：HXSCL)直接报告的DRAM平均售价。</blockquote></p><p> Comparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.</p><p><blockquote>比较图5和图6，很明显，直接来自DRAM供应商的数据与正合同价格相匹配，而不是现货价格。读者还必须记住，现货价格仅占客户支付的DRAM价格的10%。合同价格代表实际价格的90%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d56577da5391c86374739262f773c7f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"465\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 6</p><p><blockquote>图表6</blockquote></p><p> Chart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.</p><p><blockquote>图7显示了SIA（半导体行业协会）三个月移动平均值的内存ASP。同样，比较图表7和图表5，很明显合同价格是更有效的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/be8f41d833e46a0145982559a7e23732\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"341\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Chart 7</p><p><blockquote>图表7</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investor Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资者要点</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:</p><p><blockquote>TrendForce最近的新闻稿和摩根士丹利一天后的报告是基于不合理和不合逻辑的数据。他们的分析基于：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.</li>  <li>A drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).</li>  <li>Failure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.</li>  <li>DRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.</li> </ul> Strong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PC DRAM平均售价仅占DRAM总需求的15%。</li><li>个人电脑销量下降，由于疫情，个人电脑销量一直在下降，只是有所增加，但个人电脑销量低与平均售价高相关（图3和图5）。</li><li>未能认识到每台PC的DRAM内容每年都在增加，并且该指标显示增长没有减少。</li><li>DRAM现货价格而非合约价格，后者与DRAM制造商提供的报告数据相关。</li></ul>对存储芯片的强劲需求将持续到2023年，因为供应受到抑制的不是短缺，而是明智的资本支出。5G、服务器和电动汽车等存储芯片的强劲需求为美光科技带来了持续的推动力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MU":"美光科技"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4449857-micron-technology-winter-may-be-coming-but-not-this-year-nor-the-next","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1162723925","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe Morgan Stanley downgrade of Memory chips was based on PC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nThe report addressed dropping PC sales, but failed to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year.\nThe report focuses on DRAM spot prices, instead of contract prices that make up 90% of supplier ASPs.\n\nborisyankov/E+ via Getty Images\nMorgan Stanley analysts downgraded Micron(NASDAQ:MU)to equal weight from overweight, in their industry report titled, “Memory - Winter Is Coming.\" MS cautioned of a coming cool down in the DRAM memory business that could lead to lower DRAM prices.\nMorgan Stanley noted that\n\n “DRAM conditions are losing steam, and our inflection signposts suggest caution from here there’s been a change from mid-cycle to late cycle, and that this phase-change has historically meant a challenging backdrop for forward returns.”\n\nMicron Technology’sstock had its worst single-day percentage decline since March 16, 2020, when it fell 19.8%. MU's stock price for the past year is shown in Chart 1, illustrating the sell-off in the past few days coupled with a drop of more than 25% since reaching a high on April 12, 2021.\n\nChart 1\nThis article presents data that refutes the underlying case presented by Morgan Stanley that worsening DRAM demand is contributing to an acceleration of the end of the current memory upcycle leading to the start of a down cycle in 1Q 2022.\nMorgan Stanley’s Misinterpretation of Data#1 Small Percentage of PC DRAM\nThe first point is the emphasis by Morgan Stanley on PC DRAM price erosion as a harbinger for the downturn in the DRAM market. Why? Because PCs represent just 15% of the demand for DRAMs,as shown in Chart 2, according to our report entitled “Hot ICs: A Market Analysis of Artificial Intelligence, 5G, CMOS Image Sensors, and Memory Chips.\"\nChart 2\n#2 Increased DRAM content per PC\nThe 15% DRAM demand for PCs is hardly enough to cause a stop in the memory cycle. But that's beside the point. Morgan Stanley overlooks the fact that DRAM content per PC increases each year even if the PC market has slowed.\nChart 3 shows that PC unit shipments between 2015 and 2023. Indeed, my forecast shows that PCs will decrease in 2022 and 2023, but the decrease is due to a normalization of PC demand following the extraordinary demand for PCs during the work/study/stay-at-home orders associated with the COVID pandemic in 2020 that carried over into 2021.\nPrior to 2020, the PC market was decreasing, and I anticipate a corresponding return normalcy with a decrease of a few percent per year in 2022 and 2023. I estimate that DRAM content per PC will increase from 5.5 GB in 2015 to 14 GB in 2023. That’s an increase of 2.5 times during this period.\n\nChart 3\nThus, although PC units will decrease, DRAM content will increase during the next two years. But factoring in the increase in DRAM content per PC, we see in Chart 4 a much different growth in DRAMs.\nChart 4\n#3 Spot ASPs are Different than Contract ASPs\nChart 5 shows DRAM data comparison for Spot ASPs vs Contract ASPs. The entire rationale for the TrendForce and Morgan Stanley reports is the drop in spot prices in 2021, and the resultant end of the current memory cycle.\nChart 5\nWhy they chose the drop in spot prices as the catalyst for the end of the cycle vs. the increase in contract prices as a catalyst for strong memory growth is irrational and illogical.\nImportantly, there's no correlation between PC sales (Chart 3) and prices (Chart 5). In Chart 3, PC sales were at their lowest period (2017 and 2018) while ASPs were at their highest. Thus, there's an inverse relationship between PC sales and ASPs, not a direct relationship that would add credibility to the MS forecast.\n#4 Spot ASPs Are a Function of Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt (FUD Factor)\nAlso note that Chart 5 shows that spot and contract prices tracked between October 2016 and the end of 2000. A bifurcation in spot vs contract prices then took place in which spot prices escalated and then collapsed, while contract prices continued a strong growth with no abatement.\nThis bifurcation is clearly the result of the “semiconductor shortage” in which prices on the spot market have risen as a result of a perceived shortage of memory that has been interpreted as impacting not only automobiles, but every application using chips.\nTrendForce attempted to explain the shortage is due to stockpiling by PC suppliers, and I agree, which I also attributed to the DRAM collapse in 2000.I discussed stockpiling and hoarding as a major factor in 2000 and 2020, in a June 24, 2021 Semiconductor Deep Dive Marketplace newsletter articlehere.\nHowever, TrendForce’s statement in its press release of downward pressure on price hikes runs counter to the data in Chart 5 that contract prices have continued to increase unabated.\n\n “Regarding the contract market, PC OEMs currently carry relatively high levels of DRAM inventory because they substantially stocked up on PC DRAM beforehand in anticipation of an upcoming shortage. Not only has PC OEMs’ high DRAM inventory put downward pressure on possible price hikes for PC DRAM, but the gradual lifting of COVID-related restrictions in Europe and the US will also likely lower the overall demand for notebook computers, thereby pulling down the overall demand for PC DRAM.”\n\nSpot prices are based on what a buyer is willing to pay for an item with an undercurrent of fear, uncertainty, and doubt. For example, in my June 19, 2021, SA article entitled \"Micron Technology: No Shortage, Strong Growth, Period,\" from a commenter:\n\n \"And, to lend credence to your microcontroller hypothesis, we recently were told that we would not be able to get a $3 micro for one of our existing products. I don't know if it was a direct result of the Renesas fire or not. But when we looked at the spot market we were quoted $81 for that part (that's not a typo). So now we have to re-design that board to use a different part.\"\n\nAbout 10 years ago, I was an \"expert witness\" in a solar cell litigation case, and the basis of the complaint was the fact that spot silicon prices increased from $35 per metric ton to more than $500 per metric ton in a period of a few weeks because of silicon shortages. Once silicon manufacturers started making more silicon, prices dropped.\nBoth these examples illustrate that spot prices have no direct bearing on real (contract) prices, and are often transitory.\nBack to the erroneous thesis that a DRAM cycle will end based on spot prices, I show supportive data in Chart 6 that suggests their data is wrong. This chart shows DRAM ASPs as reported directly from Micron, Samsung Electronics(OTC:SSNLF)and SK Hynix(OTC:HXSCL).\nComparing Chart 5 and Chart 6, it is clear that data directly from the DRAM suppliers matches the positive contract prices and not spot prices. Readers must remember also that spot prices represent only 10% of the DRAM prices paid by customers. Contract prices represent 90% of actual prices.\n\nChart 6\nChart 7 shows memory ASPs on a three-month moving average from the SIA (Semiconductor Industry Association). Again, comparing Chart 7 with Chart 5, it is clear that the contract prices are the more valid metric.\n\nChart 7\nInvestor Takeaway\nThe recent press release from TrendForce and a report a day later by Morgan Stanley is based in data that's irrational and illogical. Their analysis is based on:\n\nPC DRAM ASPs that represent just 15% of the total DRAM demand.\nA drop in PC sales, which have been in decline and only increased due to the pandemic, but low PC sales correlate with high ASPs (Charts 3 and 5).\nFailure to recognize that DRAM content per PC is increasing each year and that metric shows no abatement in growth.\nDRAM spot prices instead of contract prices, the latter of which correlate with reporting data supplied by DRAM manufacturer.\n\nStrong demand for memory chips will continue through 2023 as supply is held in check not by shortages but judicious capex spend. The strong demand for memory chips such as 5G, servers, and EVs present a continuing tailwind for Micron Technology.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4383,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":170802548,"gmtCreate":1626417041784,"gmtModify":1626417041784,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CRSR\">$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$</a> 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","text":"$Corsair Gaming, Inc.(CRSR)$ 实在看不懂这个股为啥走得那么疲软，业绩，增长都很好啊","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170802548","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2284,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":135790027,"gmtCreate":1622181660769,"gmtModify":1622181660769,"author":{"id":"3559956192210914","authorId":"3559956192210914","name":"yyykkk","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3559956192210914","authorIdStr":"3559956192210914"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","listText":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","text":"这个股票多于15块都是严重高估，根本不值","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/135790027","repostId":"1157072297","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1054,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}