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IvanTeo

IvanTeo

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2021-09-01

Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?

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2021-08-11

It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future

The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>

2021-08-10

Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”

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2021-08-07

DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging

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2021-08-02

The trends are unpredictable

Square, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote>

2021-06-14

It is anyone’s guess at this point

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2021-02-16

Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.

Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>

2021-02-11

Not sure if Pinterest can monetise

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2021-02-08

Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ

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2021-02-05

Hope Nokia stay focused

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2021-02-05

Go doge

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that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","listText":"Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","text":"Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816087417","repostId":"1168824387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892290712,"gmtCreate":1628661322836,"gmtModify":1631891655855,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","listText":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","text":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892290712","repostId":"1163924715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163924715","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628654753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163924715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 12:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163924715","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond","content":"<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 12:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIU":"小牛电动","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163924715","content_text":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields dropped again in Asias hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%. China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.\nIn the secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.\nOn July 1st, a total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including 8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC). Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as shown in the following figure.\n\nAbout Its Positions\nAs a fund that is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.\nThe Ark Funds claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American investor as well as the CEO & CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including Li Auto, NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by Niu Technologies are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".\nLet’s look into the lightening of the Ark Funds\n10 stocks are chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5 billion, accounting for about 80%. Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA, BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key dates are marked below.\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nThe Ark Funds cleared all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and continued the pace in the past few days. \nAnother marked date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's suspicion of high-growth companies in China.\nThe third marked date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin (Kanzhun Limited), which is also a company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.\nIn the past week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7 stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450 million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIU":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896385946,"gmtCreate":1628556812185,"gmtModify":1631891655858,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","listText":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","text":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896385946","repostId":"1190360123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893461770,"gmtCreate":1628296021090,"gmtModify":1631884483619,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","listText":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","text":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893461770","repostId":"1180025090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805208129,"gmtCreate":1627880503961,"gmtModify":1631891655859,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The trends are unpredictable&nbsp;","listText":"The trends are unpredictable&nbsp;","text":"The trends are unpredictable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805208129","repostId":"1138315390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138315390","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627876975,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138315390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138315390","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Heading into a new trading week,Square Inc.,RobinHood Markets Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. a","content":"<p>Heading into a new trading week,<b>Square Inc.</b>,<b>RobinHood Markets Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;are&nbsp;among&nbsp;the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.</p><p><blockquote>进入新的交易周，<b>广场公司。</b>,<b>罗宾汉市场公司。</b>和<b>先进微设备公司。</b>是 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上关注度最高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P SPDR 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>标准普尔 SPDR 500 ETF 信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，过去 24 小时内，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 181 次，是论坛上讨论最多的股票，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 56 次。</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum&nbsp;respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在线经纪公司 Robinhood Markets 和芯片制造商 Advanced Micro Devices 分别位列第三和第四，在论坛上分别吸引了 47 次和 46 次提及。</blockquote></p><p> The other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>, video game retailer&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp</b>., medical insurance technology company&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments Corp.</b>, movie theatre chain&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>, e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com Inc.</b>&nbsp;and electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>.</p><p><blockquote>论坛上其他热门股票包括中国电子商务巨头<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</b>电子游戏零售商<b>游戏驿站公司</b>.，医保科技公司<b>三叶草健康投资公司。</b>, 连锁电影院<b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>, 电商巨头<b>亚马逊公司。</b>和电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated&nbsp;stock-market debut&nbsp;last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: Robinhood Markets 在上周备受期待的股市首次亮相后，继续受到散户投资者的高度关注。截至记者发稿时，WSB 论坛上的一篇帖子警告说，做空 Robinhood 的人将面临 “大风暴”，该帖子获得了 87% 的赞成票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jack Dorsey</b>-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>杰克·多西</b>-led Square 周日表示，已同意以约 290 亿美元的股票收购总部位于澳大利亚的 “先买后付 ”平台 Afterpay Ltd.。该公司还公布第二季度利润扭亏为盈，每股收益为 0.40 美元，收入同比飙升 143%，达到 46.8 亿美元。虽然每股收益超出了分析师的预期，但收入却低于他们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Advanced Micro Devices saw&nbsp;unusual options activity&nbsp;on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的股价周五出现了不寻常的期权活动。该公司上周公布的第二季度业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW将于周二公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: SPDR 标普500 ETF 信托基金股价在周五的常规交易时段收盘下跌近 0.5%，报 438.51 美元，而 Robinhood Market 股价收盘上涨近 1%，报 35.15 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Square shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.</p><p><blockquote>Square 股价在周五的交易中收盘下跌 3.1%，报 247.26 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 12:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Heading into a new trading week,<b>Square Inc.</b>,<b>RobinHood Markets Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;are&nbsp;among&nbsp;the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.</p><p><blockquote>进入新的交易周，<b>广场公司。</b>,<b>罗宾汉市场公司。</b>和<b>先进微设备公司。</b>是 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上关注度最高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P SPDR 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>标准普尔 SPDR 500 ETF 信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，过去 24 小时内，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 181 次，是论坛上讨论最多的股票，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 56 次。</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum&nbsp;respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在线经纪公司 Robinhood Markets 和芯片制造商 Advanced Micro Devices 分别位列第三和第四，在论坛上分别吸引了 47 次和 46 次提及。</blockquote></p><p> The other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>, video game retailer&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp</b>., medical insurance technology company&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments Corp.</b>, movie theatre chain&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>, e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com Inc.</b>&nbsp;and electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>.</p><p><blockquote>论坛上其他热门股票包括中国电子商务巨头<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</b>电子游戏零售商<b>游戏驿站公司</b>.，医保科技公司<b>三叶草健康投资公司。</b>, 连锁电影院<b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>, 电商巨头<b>亚马逊公司。</b>和电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated&nbsp;stock-market debut&nbsp;last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: Robinhood Markets 在上周备受期待的股市首次亮相后，继续受到散户投资者的高度关注。截至记者发稿时，WSB 论坛上的一篇帖子警告说，做空 Robinhood 的人将面临 “大风暴”，该帖子获得了 87% 的赞成票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jack Dorsey</b>-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>杰克·多西</b>-led Square 周日表示，已同意以约 290 亿美元的股票收购总部位于澳大利亚的 “先买后付 ”平台 Afterpay Ltd.。该公司还公布第二季度利润扭亏为盈，每股收益为 0.40 美元，收入同比飙升 143%，达到 46.8 亿美元。虽然每股收益超出了分析师的预期，但收入却低于他们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Advanced Micro Devices saw&nbsp;unusual options activity&nbsp;on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的股价周五出现了不寻常的期权活动。该公司上周公布的第二季度业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW将于周二公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: SPDR 标普500 ETF 信托基金股价在周五的常规交易时段收盘下跌近 0.5%，报 438.51 美元，而 Robinhood Market 股价收盘上涨近 1%，报 35.15 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Square shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.</p><p><blockquote>Square 股价在周五的交易中收盘下跌 3.1%，报 247.26 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","AMD":"美国超微公司","HOOD":"Robinhood","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138315390","content_text":"Heading into a new trading week,Square Inc.,RobinHood Markets Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. are among the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.\nWhat Happened: Exchange-traded fund S&P SPDR 500 ETF Trust was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.\nOnline brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum respectively.\nThe other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., video game retailer GameStop Corp., medical insurance technology company Clover Health Investments Corp., movie theatre chain AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. and electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc..\nWhy It Matters: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated stock-market debut last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.\nJack Dorsey-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.\nShares of Advanced Micro Devices saw unusual options activity on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.\nAlibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.\nPrice Action: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.\nSquare shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"HOOD":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185871354,"gmtCreate":1623643872678,"gmtModify":1631891655866,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","listText":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","text":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185871354","repostId":"2142422555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382614795,"gmtCreate":1613441004417,"gmtModify":1631891655866,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.&nbsp;","listText":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.&nbsp;","text":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382614795","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标普500技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能处于泡沫中，有破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论： 罗宾-格林伍德（Robin Greenwood）是一位金融和银行学教授，也是该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；安德烈·施莱弗，经济学教授；还有杨友，博士候选人。他们在 2019 年 1 月出版的《金融经济学杂志》（Journal of Financial Economics）上发表的研究报告《Fama 的泡沫》（Bubbles for Fama）中，分析了 1926 年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些比较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>虽然没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但还有两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能处于泡沫中的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦</i>他和他的研究伙伴们从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫 “很少是市场范围内的 ”事件。他说，更常见的情况是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，泡沫也会在某些市场领域显现出来。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫的顶端，所有泡沫之母，当然就是这种情况。格林伍德提醒我们，即使互联网股票在 20 世纪 90 年代末和 21 世纪初飙升至离谱的估值，市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市中，其他一些行业实际上取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为两年回报率至少比整体市场高出 100 个百分点的任何行业。这确实是一个很高的标准——在他们拥有 1926 年至 2016 年间业绩数据的所有行业中，在这 90 年期间的任何时候，只有 40 个行业符合该定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，而且那些会破裂的泡沫也不一定会马上破裂。研究人员还在这里提出了一个严格的前提条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在接下来的两年内，泡沫至少损失了40%，他们就认为泡沫已经破裂。在符合研究人员定义的 40 个行业中，有 21 个行业（即 53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>假设未来和过去一样，这意味着什么： 任何在任何两年期间跑赢市场 100 个百分点的行业，在接下来的两年里，都有略高于二分之一的机会亏损 40% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩溃的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场 50 个百分点而不是 100 个百分点时，崩盘的几率就降至仅 20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据 FactSet 的数据，过去两年，它的表现比标普500高出 151 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们倾向于将教授的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017 年 11 月，我用这个公式论证了比特币崩溃的几率大于 80%。在接下来的12个月里，它损失了67%。2020 年 2 月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉（TSLA）崩溃的几率为 80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了 59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞速发展的资产一样暴涨。我是否应该再次预测他们坠毁的可能性很大，我问格林伍德？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>但他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估了，市场上的个别部分 “泡沫和泡沫令人难以置信”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标普500技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能处于泡沫中，有破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论： 罗宾-格林伍德（Robin Greenwood）是一位金融和银行学教授，也是该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；安德烈·施莱弗，经济学教授；还有杨友，博士候选人。他们在 2019 年 1 月出版的《金融经济学杂志》（Journal of Financial Economics）上发表的研究报告《Fama 的泡沫》（Bubbles for Fama）中，分析了 1926 年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些比较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>虽然没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但还有两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能处于泡沫中的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦</i>他和他的研究伙伴们从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫 “很少是市场范围内的 ”事件。他说，更常见的情况是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，泡沫也会在某些市场领域显现出来。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫的顶端，所有泡沫之母，当然就是这种情况。格林伍德提醒我们，即使互联网股票在 20 世纪 90 年代末和 21 世纪初飙升至离谱的估值，市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市中，其他一些行业实际上取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为两年回报率至少比整体市场高出 100 个百分点的任何行业。这确实是一个很高的标准——在他们拥有 1926 年至 2016 年间业绩数据的所有行业中，在这 90 年期间的任何时候，只有 40 个行业符合该定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，而且那些会破裂的泡沫也不一定会马上破裂。研究人员还在这里提出了一个严格的前提条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在接下来的两年内，泡沫至少损失了40%，他们就认为泡沫已经破裂。在符合研究人员定义的 40 个行业中，有 21 个行业（即 53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>假设未来和过去一样，这意味着什么： 任何在任何两年期间跑赢市场 100 个百分点的行业，在接下来的两年里，都有略高于二分之一的机会亏损 40% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩溃的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场 50 个百分点而不是 100 个百分点时，崩盘的几率就降至仅 20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据 FactSet 的数据，过去两年，它的表现比标普500高出 151 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们倾向于将教授的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017 年 11 月，我用这个公式论证了比特币崩溃的几率大于 80%。在接下来的12个月里，它损失了67%。2020 年 2 月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉（TSLA）崩溃的几率为 80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了 59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞速发展的资产一样暴涨。我是否应该再次预测他们坠毁的可能性很大，我问格林伍德？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>但他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估了，市场上的个别部分 “泡沫和泡沫令人难以置信”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","STX":"希捷科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","WDC":"西部数据"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"WDC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388352448,"gmtCreate":1613028758484,"gmtModify":1703768520143,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise&nbsp;","listText":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise&nbsp;","text":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388352448","repostId":"2110204192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389256273,"gmtCreate":1612780849592,"gmtModify":1703764906869,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","listText":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","text":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389256273","repostId":"1163750848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317476576,"gmtCreate":1612481539895,"gmtModify":1703762448882,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope Nokia stay focused&nbsp;","listText":"Hope Nokia stay focused&nbsp;","text":"Hope Nokia stay focused","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317476576","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317478529,"gmtCreate":1612481429061,"gmtModify":1703762447853,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Go doge&nbsp;","listText":"Go doge&nbsp;","text":"Go doge","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317478529","repostId":"1180680925","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":745,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":805208129,"gmtCreate":1627880503961,"gmtModify":1631891655859,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"The trends are unpredictable&nbsp;","listText":"The trends are unpredictable&nbsp;","text":"The trends are unpredictable","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805208129","repostId":"1138315390","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138315390","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1627876975,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138315390?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 12:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Square, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138315390","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"Heading into a new trading week,Square Inc.,RobinHood Markets Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. a","content":"<p>Heading into a new trading week,<b>Square Inc.</b>,<b>RobinHood Markets Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;are&nbsp;among&nbsp;the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.</p><p><blockquote>进入新的交易周，<b>广场公司。</b>,<b>罗宾汉市场公司。</b>和<b>先进微设备公司。</b>是 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上关注度最高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P SPDR 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>标准普尔 SPDR 500 ETF 信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，过去 24 小时内，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 181 次，是论坛上讨论最多的股票，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 56 次。</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum&nbsp;respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在线经纪公司 Robinhood Markets 和芯片制造商 Advanced Micro Devices 分别位列第三和第四，在论坛上分别吸引了 47 次和 46 次提及。</blockquote></p><p> The other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>, video game retailer&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp</b>., medical insurance technology company&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments Corp.</b>, movie theatre chain&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>, e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com Inc.</b>&nbsp;and electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>.</p><p><blockquote>论坛上其他热门股票包括中国电子商务巨头<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</b>电子游戏零售商<b>游戏驿站公司</b>.，医保科技公司<b>三叶草健康投资公司。</b>, 连锁电影院<b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>, 电商巨头<b>亚马逊公司。</b>和电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated&nbsp;stock-market debut&nbsp;last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: Robinhood Markets 在上周备受期待的股市首次亮相后，继续受到散户投资者的高度关注。截至记者发稿时，WSB 论坛上的一篇帖子警告说，做空 Robinhood 的人将面临 “大风暴”，该帖子获得了 87% 的赞成票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jack Dorsey</b>-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>杰克·多西</b>-led Square 周日表示，已同意以约 290 亿美元的股票收购总部位于澳大利亚的 “先买后付 ”平台 Afterpay Ltd.。该公司还公布第二季度利润扭亏为盈，每股收益为 0.40 美元，收入同比飙升 143%，达到 46.8 亿美元。虽然每股收益超出了分析师的预期，但收入却低于他们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Advanced Micro Devices saw&nbsp;unusual options activity&nbsp;on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的股价周五出现了不寻常的期权活动。该公司上周公布的第二季度业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW将于周二公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: SPDR 标普500 ETF 信托基金股价在周五的常规交易时段收盘下跌近 0.5%，报 438.51 美元，而 Robinhood Market 股价收盘上涨近 1%，报 35.15 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Square shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.</p><p><blockquote>Square 股价在周五的交易中收盘下跌 3.1%，报 247.26 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Square, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSquare, Robinhood, AMD, GameStop, Alibaba, AMC — Here's What WallStreetBets Is Talking About Heading Into New Week<blockquote>Square、Robinhood、AMD、游戏驿站、阿里巴巴-SW、AMC——以下是 WallStreetBets 在新一周开始时谈论的内容</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-02 12:02</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Heading into a new trading week,<b>Square Inc.</b>,<b>RobinHood Markets Inc.</b>&nbsp;and&nbsp;<b>Advanced Micro Devices Inc.</b>&nbsp;are&nbsp;among&nbsp;the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.</p><p><blockquote>进入新的交易周，<b>广场公司。</b>,<b>罗宾汉市场公司。</b>和<b>先进微设备公司。</b>是 Reddit 的 r/WallStreetBets 论坛上关注度最高的股票之一。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What Happened</b>: Exchange-traded fund&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P SPDR 500 ETF Trust</b>&nbsp;was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.</p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b>: 交易所买卖基金<b>标准普尔 SPDR 500 ETF 信托</b>Quiver Quantitative 的数据显示，过去 24 小时内，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 181 次，是论坛上讨论最多的股票，金融科技公司 Square 被提及 56 次。</blockquote></p><p> Online brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum&nbsp;respectively.</p><p><blockquote>在线经纪公司 Robinhood Markets 和芯片制造商 Advanced Micro Devices 分别位列第三和第四，在论坛上分别吸引了 47 次和 46 次提及。</blockquote></p><p> The other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Alibaba Group Holding Ltd.</b>, video game retailer&nbsp;<b>GameStop Corp</b>., medical insurance technology company&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments Corp.</b>, movie theatre chain&nbsp;<b>AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc.</b>, e-commerce giant&nbsp;<b>Amazon.com Inc.</b>&nbsp;and electric vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>Tesla Inc.</b>.</p><p><blockquote>论坛上其他热门股票包括中国电子商务巨头<b>阿里巴巴-SW集团控股有限公司</b>电子游戏零售商<b>游戏驿站公司</b>.，医保科技公司<b>三叶草健康投资公司。</b>, 连锁电影院<b>AMC院线控股公司。</b>, 电商巨头<b>亚马逊公司。</b>和电动汽车制造商<b>特斯拉公司。</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why It Matters</b>: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated&nbsp;stock-market debut&nbsp;last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么它很重要</b>: Robinhood Markets 在上周备受期待的股市首次亮相后，继续受到散户投资者的高度关注。截至记者发稿时，WSB 论坛上的一篇帖子警告说，做空 Robinhood 的人将面临 “大风暴”，该帖子获得了 87% 的赞成票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Jack Dorsey</b>-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>杰克·多西</b>-led Square 周日表示，已同意以约 290 亿美元的股票收购总部位于澳大利亚的 “先买后付 ”平台 Afterpay Ltd.。该公司还公布第二季度利润扭亏为盈，每股收益为 0.40 美元，收入同比飙升 143%，达到 46.8 亿美元。虽然每股收益超出了分析师的预期，但收入却低于他们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Advanced Micro Devices saw&nbsp;unusual options activity&nbsp;on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.</p><p><blockquote>Advanced Micro Devices 的股价周五出现了不寻常的期权活动。该公司上周公布的第二季度业绩好于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW将于周二公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Price Action</b>: SPDR S&amp;P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.</p><p><blockquote><b>价格行为</b>: SPDR 标普500 ETF 信托基金股价在周五的常规交易时段收盘下跌近 0.5%，报 438.51 美元，而 Robinhood Market 股价收盘上涨近 1%，报 35.15 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Square shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.</p><p><blockquote>Square 股价在周五的交易中收盘下跌 3.1%，报 247.26 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","AMC":"AMC院线","AMD":"美国超微公司","HOOD":"Robinhood","BABA":"阿里巴巴"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138315390","content_text":"Heading into a new trading week,Square Inc.,RobinHood Markets Inc. and Advanced Micro Devices Inc. are among the stocks seeing the highest interest on Reddit’s r/WallStreetBets forum.\nWhat Happened: Exchange-traded fund S&P SPDR 500 ETF Trust was the most discussed stock on the forum with 181 mentions, fintech firm Square with 56 mentions during the last 24 hours, data from Quiver Quantitative showed.\nOnline brokerage Robinhood Markets and chipmaker Advanced Micro Devices are in the third and fourth positions, having attracted 47 and 46 mentions on the forum respectively.\nThe other stocks that are trending on the forum include Chinese e-commerce giant Alibaba Group Holding Ltd., video game retailer GameStop Corp., medical insurance technology company Clover Health Investments Corp., movie theatre chain AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc., e-commerce giant Amazon.com Inc. and electric vehicle maker Tesla Inc..\nWhy It Matters: Robinhood Markets continues to see high interest from retail investors after its highly anticipated stock-market debut last week. A post on the WSB forum warning that people who shorted Robinhood have a “big storm coming,” had 87% upvotes at press time.\nJack Dorsey-led Square said on Sunday it has agreed to acquire the Australia-based ‘buy now, pay later’ platform Afterpay Ltd. for about $29 billion in stock. The company also reported a turnaround to profit in the second quarter with earnings per share of $0.40, while revenue surged 143% year-over-year to $4.68 billion. While the earnings per share beat analysts’ estimates, revenue missed their expectations.\nShares of Advanced Micro Devices saw unusual options activity on Friday. The company reported better-than-expected second-quarter results last week.\nAlibaba is set to report earnings on Tuesday.\nPrice Action: SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust shares closed almost 0.5% lower in Friday’s regular trading session at $438.51, while Robinhood Market shares closed almost 1% higher at $35.15.\nSquare shares closed 3.1% lower in Friday’s trading at $247.26.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"HOOD":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"AMD":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893461770,"gmtCreate":1628296021090,"gmtModify":1631884483619,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","listText":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","text":"DOW, NASDAQ keeps breaking new high but hyper growth stocks seems to be lagging","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893461770","repostId":"1180025090","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2511,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816087417,"gmtCreate":1630455714939,"gmtModify":1631891655856,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","listText":"Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","text":"Anything that has a chain to electric vehicles is gold now?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816087417","repostId":"1168824387","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1998,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":892290712,"gmtCreate":1628661322836,"gmtModify":1631891655855,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","listText":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","text":"It could be a short term strategy for ARK. They will probably buy back at some point in the future","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/892290712","repostId":"1163924715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1163924715","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628654753,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1163924715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-11 12:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1163924715","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond","content":"<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Ark Funds' Actions to Lighten up China Concepts Stocks<blockquote>方舟基金减轻中国概念股的行动</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-11 12:05</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Pre-market overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>上市前概述</b></blockquote></p><p> U.S.&nbsp;stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the&nbsp;U.S.&nbsp;10-Year&nbsp;Government&nbsp;Bond Yields dropped again in Asias&nbsp;hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%.&nbsp;China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.</p><p><blockquote>美股盘前交易下跌，亚洲时段美国10年期国债收益率再度下跌，拖累大宗商品价格，原油跌幅高达5%，中国概念股盘前交易小幅上涨。</blockquote></p><p> In the&nbsp;secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments&nbsp;in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating&nbsp;their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been&nbsp;reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has&nbsp;never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have&nbsp;rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is&nbsp;that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在二级市场上，有两类美国基金愿意在中国进行投资。其中，其中一人已清盘或正在逐步清盘其持有的股份。从方舟基金的日常操作来看，其一直在减仓包括腾讯控股在内的中概股，从未加仓，尽管上述个股近期出现了一定程度的反弹。最近出现的一个更令人鼓舞的信号是，方舟基金已经停止减持中国股票。</blockquote></p><p> On July 1st, a&nbsp;total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including&nbsp;8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC).&nbsp;Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as&nbsp;shown in the following figure.</p><p><blockquote>7月1日，共有10只在美国上市的中国股票被方舟基金覆盖，其中包括8只中国概念股和2只在美国场外交易（OTC）交易的港股，以当日收盘价计算，这10只股票合计18亿美元，如下图所示。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5be54c5dfdf52cd1c4ea28364f2dc37a\" tg-width=\"622\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>About Its Positions</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于其立场</b></blockquote></p><p> As a fund that&nbsp;is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size&nbsp;of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in&nbsp;emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an&nbsp;investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks&nbsp;and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.</p><p><blockquote>作为一只投资中国股票不够积极的基金，18亿美元的仓位规模很难说小。投资新兴市场的最大共同基金是景顺新兴市场基金，在华投资150亿美元，涵盖中概股、港股和A股。因此，方舟在中国的投资并非微不足道。</blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds&nbsp;claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust&nbsp;China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions&nbsp;held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing&nbsp;power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American&nbsp;investor as well as the CEO &amp; CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's&nbsp;driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so&nbsp;large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target&nbsp;of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">Li Auto</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">NIO Inc.</a> and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">XPeng Inc.</a>, but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">Niu Technologies</a> are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not&nbsp;yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金号称以技术为基础，但基金似乎并不完全信任中国的技术。通过分析其持有的中国股票，方舟基金现在持有的最多头寸是拥有巨大购买力的电子商务股票，而不是科技公司的股票。美国投资者、Ark Invest 首席执行官兼首席信息官凯西-伍德（Cathie Wood）曾在电视上称赞百度的无人驾驶技术，而他们对百度股票的持仓并没有那么大。然后，中国的新能源汽车来了。方舟基金的投资目标并非中国电动汽车三驾马车，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LI\">理想汽车</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIO\">蔚来</a>和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/XPEV\">小鹏汽车</a>但是小牛电动。生产的电动汽车<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NIU\">小牛电动</a>在纽约很畅销，而另外三家制造商尚未扩展到美国。这再次反映了凯西·伍德对中国“技术”的怀疑态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Let’s look into&nbsp;the lightening of the Ark Funds</b></p><p><blockquote><b>让我们来看看方舟基金的闪电</b></blockquote></p><p> 10 stocks are&nbsp;chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on&nbsp;July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5&nbsp;billion, accounting for about 80%.&nbsp;Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA,&nbsp;BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key&nbsp;dates are marked below.</p><p><blockquote>选择了10只股票来分析它们的份额变化。7月1日持仓最多的5只个股（京东、TCEHY、贝科、PDD、百度）如图1所示，合计15亿美元，约占80%，另外5只个股分别是阿里巴巴、小牛、虎牙、比亚迪、百度，合计3亿美元，约占20%（图2）。关键日期标记在下面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/41b4d86b2c5953dc32e4a31fb13ee410\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"269\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 1</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09631c97e67c3aa9711d607bca310526\" tg-width=\"554\" tg-height=\"252\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Figure 2</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The Ark Funds cleared&nbsp;all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The&nbsp;news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and&nbsp;continued the pace in the past few days.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>方舟基金于7月13日、14日清仓虎牙全部持仓（上图标注）。虎牙与斗鱼合并失败的消息在7月12日公布，但方舟基金当天并未实质性减仓，延续了过去几天的步伐。</blockquote></p><p> Another marked&nbsp;date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on&nbsp;Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had&nbsp;occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following&nbsp;week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had&nbsp;to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by&nbsp;Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's&nbsp;suspicion of high-growth companies in China.</p><p><blockquote>另一个标记的日期是7月26日（图1）。7月23日星期五，中国教育股暴跌超过50%。那一天，很少有人意识到连锁反应已经发生，在香港上市的中国股票将在接下来的一周内暴跌。方舟基金也没有意识到这一点。7月26日，方舟基金不得不减仓。前5大持仓均被方舟减仓，科控股站上破位。这反映出Cathie Wood对中国高成长性公司的怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The third marked&nbsp;date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds&nbsp;only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin&nbsp;(<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">Kanzhun Limited</a>), which is also a&nbsp;company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still&nbsp;very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.</p><p><blockquote>第三个标记日期是7月28日，如图2所示。在这一轮风波中，方舟基金仅减仓了老板直聘股票（<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BZ\">看准有限公司</a>），这也是一家市值相对较小的公司。与此同时，凯西·伍德仍然非常坚持在小牛电动的投资。</blockquote></p><p> In the past&nbsp;week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the&nbsp;Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7&nbsp;stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450&nbsp;million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.</p><p><blockquote>近一周，中国概念股价格仍在低位徘徊，但方舟基金不再减仓。目前只剩下7只股票。以上周五收盘价计算，仓位为4.5亿美元，较7月1日减少75%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"XPEV":"小鹏集团","NIU":"小牛电动","NIO":"蔚来","LI":"理想汽车","BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1163924715","content_text":"Pre-market overview\nU.S. stocks fell in the pre-market trading, and the U.S. 10-Year Government Bond Yields dropped again in Asias hours, pulling down the prices of commodities with crude oil falling up to 5%. China Concepts Stocks rose slightly in the pre-market trading.\nIn the secondary market, there are two types of US funds willing to make investments in China. Thereinto, one of them has liquidated or been gradually liquidating their holdings. According to the daily operations of the Ark Funds, it has been reducing its positions in China Concepts Stocks including Tencent, and has never increased its positions, although the afore-mentioned stocks have rebounded to some extent recently. A more pleasing signal appeared lately is that the Ark Funds has stopped lightening up Chinese stocks.\nOn July 1st, a total of 10 Chinese stocks listed in the U.S. are covered by the Ark Funds, including 8 China Concept Stocks and 2 Hong Kong stocks traded in U.S. over-the-counter (OTC). Based on the closing price of the day, these 10 stocks totaled $1.8 billion, as shown in the following figure.\n\nAbout Its Positions\nAs a fund that is not active enough to invest in Chinese stocks, it is hard to say that the size of $1.8-billion position is small. The largest mutual fund that invests in emerging markets is the Invesco Developing Markets Fund, which has an investment of $15 billion in China, covering China Concepts Stocks, Hong Kong Stocks and A shares. Therefore, Ark's investment in China is not trivial.\nThe Ark Funds claims to be technology-based, but it seems that the Funds does not fully trust China's technology. By analyzing its holdings on Chinese stocks, the most positions held by the Ark Funds now are stocks of e-commerce which owns vast purchasing power, rather than those of technology companies. Cathie Wood, an American investor as well as the CEO & CIO of Ark Invest, once praised Baidu's driverless technology on TV, while their position in Baidu’s stock is not so large. Then, here comes the new energy vehicles of China. The investment target of the Ark Funds is not the Chinese EV trio including Li Auto, NIO Inc. and XPeng Inc., but NIU Technologies. The electric vehicles produced by Niu Technologies are good sellers in New York, while another three makers have not yet expanded into the United States. Once again, it reflects Cathie Wood's skeptical attitude towards China's \"technology\".\nLet’s look into the lightening of the Ark Funds\n10 stocks are chosen to analyze their share changes. 5 stocks with the largest positions on July 1 (JD, TCEHY, BEKE, PDD, and BIDU) are shown in Figure 1, totaling $1.5 billion, accounting for about 80%. Another 5 stocks are BABA, NIU, HUYA, BYDDY, and BZ, totaling $300 million, accounting for about 20% (Figure 2). Key dates are marked below.\nFigure 1\nFigure 2\nThe Ark Funds cleared all its positions in HUYA on July 13 and 14 (marked in the Figure above). The news of the failed merger between Huya and DouYu was announced on July 12, but the Ark Funds did not substantially lighten up its position on the day, and continued the pace in the past few days. \nAnother marked date is July 26 (Figure 1). The Chinese education stocks plummeted over 50% on Friday, July 23. On that day, few people realized that a chain reaction had occurred, and Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong would slump in the following week. The Ark Funds failed to realize it, either. On July 26, the Ark Funds had to lighten up its positions. The top 5 largest positions were all reduced by Ark, with Ke Holdings standing in the breach. This reflects Cathie Wood's suspicion of high-growth companies in China.\nThe third marked date is July 28, as shown in Figure 2. In this round of turmoil, the Ark Funds only lightened up its positions in the stocks of BOSS Zhipin (Kanzhun Limited), which is also a company with a relatively small market value. Meanwhile, Cathie Wood is still very insistent on the investments in NIU Technologies.\nIn the past week, the prices of China Concepts Stocks still hovered at a low level, but the Ark Funds no longer lightened up their positions. At present, there are only 7 stocks left. Based on the closing price last Friday, the position is $450 million, which is a 75% decrease compared to that of July 1.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIU":0.9,"LI":0.9,"NIO":0.9,"BZ":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2209,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":185871354,"gmtCreate":1623643872678,"gmtModify":1631891655866,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","listText":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","text":"It is anyone’s guess at this point","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/185871354","repostId":"2142422555","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896385946,"gmtCreate":1628556812185,"gmtModify":1631891655858,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","listText":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","text":"Gives meaning to the quote “invest in yourself”","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896385946","repostId":"1190360123","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1985,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":382614795,"gmtCreate":1613441004417,"gmtModify":1631891655866,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.&nbsp;","listText":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.&nbsp;","text":"Although the market is over priced now, the overall market’s perception of value is uneven.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/382614795","repostId":"1185344045","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185344045","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613440524,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185344045?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-16 09:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185344045","media":"Barrons","summary":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk","content":"<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标普500技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能处于泡沫中，有破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论： 罗宾-格林伍德（Robin Greenwood）是一位金融和银行学教授，也是该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；安德烈·施莱弗，经济学教授；还有杨友，博士候选人。他们在 2019 年 1 月出版的《金融经济学杂志》（Journal of Financial Economics）上发表的研究报告《Fama 的泡沫》（Bubbles for Fama）中，分析了 1926 年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些比较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>虽然没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但还有两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能处于泡沫中的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦</i>他和他的研究伙伴们从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫 “很少是市场范围内的 ”事件。他说，更常见的情况是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，泡沫也会在某些市场领域显现出来。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫的顶端，所有泡沫之母，当然就是这种情况。格林伍德提醒我们，即使互联网股票在 20 世纪 90 年代末和 21 世纪初飙升至离谱的估值，市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市中，其他一些行业实际上取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为两年回报率至少比整体市场高出 100 个百分点的任何行业。这确实是一个很高的标准——在他们拥有 1926 年至 2016 年间业绩数据的所有行业中，在这 90 年期间的任何时候，只有 40 个行业符合该定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，而且那些会破裂的泡沫也不一定会马上破裂。研究人员还在这里提出了一个严格的前提条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在接下来的两年内，泡沫至少损失了40%，他们就认为泡沫已经破裂。在符合研究人员定义的 40 个行业中，有 21 个行业（即 53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>假设未来和过去一样，这意味着什么： 任何在任何两年期间跑赢市场 100 个百分点的行业，在接下来的两年里，都有略高于二分之一的机会亏损 40% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩溃的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场 50 个百分点而不是 100 个百分点时，崩盘的几率就降至仅 20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据 FactSet 的数据，过去两年，它的表现比标普500高出 151 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们倾向于将教授的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017 年 11 月，我用这个公式论证了比特币崩溃的几率大于 80%。在接下来的12个月里，它损失了67%。2020 年 2 月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉（TSLA）崩溃的几率为 80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了 59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞速发展的资产一样暴涨。我是否应该再次预测他们坠毁的可能性很大，我问格林伍德？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>但他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估了，市场上的个别部分 “泡沫和泡沫令人难以置信”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Where the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhere the Real Stock Market Bubble Is<blockquote>真正的股市泡沫在哪里</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-16 09:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>It is likely that the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.</p><p><blockquote>标普500技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数很可能处于泡沫中，有破裂的风险。</blockquote></p><p>That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways&nbsp;to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.</p><p><blockquote>这是我从哈佛大学三位研究人员的一项研究中得出的结论： 罗宾-格林伍德（Robin Greenwood）是一位金融和银行学教授，也是该机构行为金融和金融稳定项目的主席；安德烈·施莱弗，经济学教授；还有杨友，博士候选人。他们在 2019 年 1 月出版的《金融经济学杂志》（Journal of Financial Economics）上发表的研究报告《Fama 的泡沫》（Bubbles for Fama）中，分析了 1926 年以来的美国股市历史，以寻找预测即将破裂的泡沫的方法。</blockquote></p><p>Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are&nbsp;Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and&nbsp;Western Digital(WDC).</p><p><blockquote>应用研究人员得出的公式，我计算出在未来两年的某个时候，技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数有80%的可能性比现在低40%。该行业一些比较知名的公司包括苹果（股票代码：AAPL）、希捷科技（STX）和西部数据（WDC）。</blockquote></p><p>Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.</p><p><blockquote>虽然没有其他行业符合研究人员对泡沫的定义，但还有两个行业接近泡沫。他们也在技术领域：半导体和半导体设备，以及软件。</blockquote></p><p>Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood told<i>Barron’s</i>that he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.</p><p><blockquote>为什么要关注一个可能处于泡沫中的行业，而不是整个市场？格林伍德教授告诉<i>巴伦</i>他和他的研究伙伴们从对泡沫历史的研究中了解到，泡沫 “很少是市场范围内的 ”事件。他说，更常见的情况是，即使其他行业仍然被低估，泡沫也会在某些市场领域显现出来。</blockquote></p><p>This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.</p><p><blockquote>在互联网泡沫的顶端，所有泡沫之母，当然就是这种情况。格林伍德提醒我们，即使互联网股票在 20 世纪 90 年代末和 21 世纪初飙升至离谱的估值，市场的其他板块——尤其是价值股——要么估值合理，甚至被低估。在伴随互联网泡沫股票破裂的熊市中，其他一些行业实际上取得了进展。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员将泡沫定义为两年回报率至少比整体市场高出 100 个百分点的任何行业。这确实是一个很高的标准——在他们拥有 1926 年至 2016 年间业绩数据的所有行业中，在这 90 年期间的任何时候，只有 40 个行业符合该定义。</blockquote></p><p>Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.</p><p><blockquote>当然，并不是所有的泡沫都会破裂，而且那些会破裂的泡沫也不一定会马上破裂。研究人员还在这里提出了一个严格的前提条件：一旦一个行业满足了他们对泡沫的定义，如果在接下来的两年内，泡沫至少损失了40%，他们就认为泡沫已经破裂。在符合研究人员定义的 40 个行业中，有 21 个行业（即 53%）破裂。</blockquote></p><p>What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.</p><p><blockquote>假设未来和过去一样，这意味着什么： 任何在任何两年期间跑赢市场 100 个百分点的行业，在接下来的两年里，都有略高于二分之一的机会亏损 40% 或更多。</blockquote></p><p>The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.</p><p><blockquote>研究人员还研究了当他们收紧或放松对泡沫的定义时，崩溃的概率是如何变化的。当他们将标准设定为仅领先市场 50 个百分点而不是 100 个百分点时，崩盘的几率就降至仅 20%。当他们将标准收紧到150个百分点时，崩溃的概率上升到80%。</blockquote></p><p>This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage &amp; Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;by 151 percentage points.</p><p><blockquote>后一种概率适用于技术硬件、存储和外围设备指数。根据 FactSet 的数据，过去两年，它的表现比标普500高出 151 个百分点。</blockquote></p><p>One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of&nbsp;Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>人们倾向于将教授的公式应用于个别证券，就像我自己过去所做的那样。例如，2017 年 11 月，我用这个公式论证了比特币崩溃的几率大于 80%。在接下来的12个月里，它损失了67%。2020 年 2 月，我再次使用教授们的公式来论证特斯拉（TSLA）崩溃的几率为 80%。该股在接下来的六周内下跌了 59%。</blockquote></p><p>Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.</p><p><blockquote>当然，从那时起，特斯拉和比特币就像许多其他飞速发展的资产一样暴涨。我是否应该再次预测他们坠毁的可能性很大，我问格林伍德？他表示反对，强调需要进一步研究影响个股崩盘几率的各种因素。</blockquote></p><p>Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”</p><p><blockquote>但他补充说，他认为不仅整个股市被高估了，市场上的个别部分 “泡沫和泡沫令人难以置信”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AAPL":"苹果",".DJI":"道琼斯","STX":"希捷科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","WDC":"西部数据"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/this-is-where-the-real-stock-market-bubble-is-51613388601?mod=hp_LEAD_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185344045","content_text":"It is likely that the S&P 500 Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals indexis in a bubble at risk of bursting.That’s the conclusion I draw from a study by three Harvard University researchers: Robin Greenwood, a finance and banking professor who chairs the institution’s Behavioral Finance and Financial Stability project; Andrei Shleifer, an economics professor; and Yang You, a Ph.D. candidate. In their study,“Bubbles for Fama,”published in the January 2019 issue of the Journal of Financial Economics, they analyzed U.S. stock market history back to 1926 in search of ways to forecast a bubble that was about to burst.Applying the formula the researchers derive, I calculate there is an 80% chance that the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index will be 40% lower than today at some point in the next two years. Among some of the better-known firms in this industry are Apple(ticker: AAPL),Seagate Technology(STX), and Western Digital(WDC).Though no other industries satisfy the researchers’ definition of a bubble, two others come close. They are also in the technology arena: Semiconductors and Semiconductor Equipment, and Software.Why focus on an industry that may be in a bubble, rather than the market as a whole? Prof. Greenwood toldBarron’sthat he and his fellow researchers learned from their study of the history of bubbles that they “rarely are marketwide” events. Far more common, he said, is for a bubble to manifest in certain pockets of the market even as other sectors remain undervalued.This was certainly the case at the top ofthe dot-com bubble, the mother of all bubbles. Greenwood reminds us that, even as dot-com stocks soared to outrageous valuations in the late 1990s and early 2000, other sectors of the market—notably value stocks—were either fairly valued or even undervalued. Some of those other sectors actually gained ground during the bear market that accompanied the bursting of the dot-com bubble stocks.The researchers define a bubble to be any industry whose two-year return is at least 100 percentage points greater than the overall market’s. This is a high standard indeed—among all industries for which they had performance data between 1926 and 2016, just 40 satisfied the definition at any point over this 90-year period.Not all bubbles burst, of course, and those that do don’t always burst right away. The researchers imposed a strict precondition here as well: Once an industry satisfied their definition of a bubble, they considered it to have burst if, within the subsequent two years, it lost at least 40% of its value. Of the 40 industries that satisfied the researchers’ definition of a bubble, 21—or 53%—burst.What this means, assuming the future is like the past: There’s a slightly better than one out of two chance that any industry that outperforms the market by 100 percentage points in any two-year period will lose 40% or more over the subsequent two years.The researchers also studied how the probabilities of a crash changed when they tightened or loosened their definition of a bubble. When they set the criterion to be just 50 percentage points ahead of the market, instead of 100, the odds of a crash fell to just 20%. When they tightened the criterion to 150 percentage points, the probabilities of a crash rose to 80%.This latter probability is what applies to the Technology Hardware, Storage & Peripherals index. Over the past two years, according to FactSet, it has outperformed the S&P 500 by 151 percentage points.One is tempted to apply the professors’ formula to individual securities, as I myself have done in the past. In November 2017, for example, I used the formula to argue thatthe odds of Bitcoin crashingwere greater than 80%. It lost 67% over the next 12 months. I used the professors’ formulaonce again in February 2020to argue that the odds of Tesla(TSLA) crashing were 80%. The stock lost 59% over the next six weeks.Since then, of course,TeslaandBitcoin have skyrocketed, as have any of a number of other highflying assets. Should I once again forecast that there is a high probability of their crashing, I asked Greenwood? He demurred, stressing that further research is needed into the various factors that affect the odds of an individual stock crashing.Yet he added he believes that not only is the broad stock market overvalued, there are individual pockets of the market that are “incredibly frothy and bubbly.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"WDC":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"STX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":388352448,"gmtCreate":1613028758484,"gmtModify":1703768520143,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise&nbsp;","listText":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise&nbsp;","text":"Not sure if Pinterest can monetise","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/388352448","repostId":"2110204192","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2582,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":389256273,"gmtCreate":1612780849592,"gmtModify":1703764906869,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","listText":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","text":"Looks like a huge day for NASDAQ","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/389256273","repostId":"1163750848","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3105,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":317476576,"gmtCreate":1612481539895,"gmtModify":1703762448882,"author":{"id":"3561757396404610","authorId":"3561757396404610","name":"IvanTeo","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09ad7baf8f067a94c8d3f2222a521ef8","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3561757396404610","authorIdStr":"3561757396404610"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hope Nokia stay focused&nbsp;","listText":"Hope Nokia stay focused&nbsp;","text":"Hope Nokia stay focused","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/317476576","repostId":"1162866028","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3216,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}