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Jordlee88

Jordlee88

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2021-06-07

Wow

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2021-06-17

$Workhorse(WKHS)$Hehehehe

2021-06-18

$Workhorse(WKHS)$Going strong

2021-06-18

Wow really

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2021-06-09

$Seanergy Maritime(SHIP)$:(

2021-06-08

$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Like pls

2021-06-07

.

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2021-06-06

Wow

Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>

2021-06-29

Hehe

Palantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote>

2021-06-18

Like my comment pls

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15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115559324","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMoats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate stayin","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Moats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.</li>  <li>There are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.</li>  <li>These moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0361567f2939770c4946a5568ce8dc7e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1033\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>护城河是企业为保护利润和产生持久力而建立的竞争优势。</li><li>护城河有七种类型，伟大的公司通常有两到三种。Palantir拥有全部七个。</li><li>这些护城河将使Palantir能够建立具有持久影响力和盈利能力的业务。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻简介：论建立王朝</b></blockquote></p><p> In the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.</p><p><blockquote>16世纪中叶，日本陷入了全面内战。</blockquote></p><p> Oda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.</p><p><blockquote>织田信长，一个被认为是“伟大的统一者”（或战场上的“魔王”）的武士，正在成为全日本最强大的武士军阀。他的名字已经成为军事才华的代名词，他有能力推翻更强大的对手。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有强大的力量，但佛教中的一个派别——一心一意的一辉（联盟）——开始巩固权力，建造堡垒，积累越来越多的武僧。Ikko一辉最终在今天大阪的石山本愿寺（石山）建立了自己的堡垒。</blockquote></p><p> By the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.</p><p><blockquote>到了16世纪60年代，信长已经击败了日本所有反对的武士军阀，只有一晃一辉阻止了信长用他的霸权覆盖日本。</blockquote></p><p> And so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.</p><p><blockquote>因此，1570年，信长带着30,000名士兵出发前往石山本愿寺，其中许多人接受过早期版本的火绳枪的训练。信长本人手持日本最著名的剑——“道吉里安纲”。传说道吉里安纲被用来杀死当时最可怕的恶魔——酒吞道吉。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有大量武器，但他对石山本愿寺要塞的进攻并没有成功。他的部队围攻石山十年，他被击退了十年。事实上，1580年一光一号最终投降时，是应朝廷的要求，而不是要塞被攻破。</blockquote></p><p> So how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?</p><p><blockquote>那么一晃一辉是如何抵挡住中世纪日本最可怕的幕府将军的呢？</blockquote></p><p> A moat, of course.</p><p><blockquote>当然是护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Flowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.</p><p><blockquote>环绕石山大教堂要塞的是一条错综复杂的护城河，上面是毫无特色的城墙。由于有了护城河，这些城墙不能被攻城塔或隧道攻击。它们不能被攀爬或跨越。它无懈可击。</blockquote></p><p> In reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.</p><p><blockquote>关于这种可以防御攻击者10年或更长时间的中世纪结构，“护城河”一词从此成为衡量企业寿命的常用指标。我欣赏历史有意义的时候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s Seven Moats</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的七大护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”</i>  -Peter Thiel, Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir</p><p><blockquote><i>增长很容易衡量，但持久性却不容易。如果你把短期增长看得比什么都重要，你就错过了你应该问的最重要的问题：十年后，这项业务还会存在吗？光靠数字是不会告诉你答案的；相反，你必须批判性地思考你的业务的质量特征。”</i>—Peter Thiel，Palantir创始人兼董事长</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.</p><p><blockquote>在《7种权力》一书中，汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)写道，企业可以用来指导价值创造工作的七条护城河。赫尔默认为，通过将卓越运营与深思熟虑的护城河建设相结合，企业或许能够使自己具有持久的价值。这七种力量是：规模经济、网络效应、反向定位、转换成本、品牌、垄断资源和流程力量。</blockquote></p><p> Helmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.</p><p><blockquote>赫尔默概述了以现代企业为代表的这些护城河的案例研究。Pixar拥有智囊团（被垄断的资源），Nike（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）可以为一双鞋收取比竞争对手（品牌）更高的费用，而Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）的内容制作成本随着订户的增加而降低（规模经济）。世界上最具标志性的公司有两条，也许三条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has all seven.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)拥有全部七项。</blockquote></p><p> I know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.</p><p><blockquote>我知道这听起来很疯狂，因为Palantir九个月前上市，是的，它仍然没有盈利。是的，基于股票的薪酬是丰厚的。是的，收入集中，是的，估值乐观。对所有这些都是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> No take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.</p><p><blockquote>没有收回。Palantir有七条护城河。让我给你看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's Scale Economies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的规模经济</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The quality of declining unit costs as volume increases</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着数量的增加，单位成本下降的质量</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的销售周期可能是其商业模式中最被误解的方面。反对者认为Palantir是一家服务公司。以每股35美元的价格买入的购物者认为Palantir是一家SaaS公司。他们都是对的。</blockquote></p><p> Gotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”</p><p><blockquote>Gotham和Foundry为政府和商业客户提供高利润的经常性软件合同。与此同时，Palantir引进技术顾问来扩大和成熟这些合同。Palantir将这个销售周期描述为“收购、扩张和规模化”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Acquire</b></p><p><blockquote><b>获得</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Palantir<i>is</i>a software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.</p><p><blockquote>而Palantir<i>是</i>作为一家软件公司，它与其他分享这个标签的公司截然不同。例如，向企业销售Zoom（ZM）这样的软件和销售Foundry之间存在一些差异。截至2021年第一季度，Palantir报告每位客户的年收入为810万美元。这种惊人的产品收入掩盖了Palantir产品的价值，但也凸显了其销售周期的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，Acquire客户被描述为那些享受Palantir技术短期试点部署的客户。Palantir亏本运营这些账户，并指出这一销售阶段通常平均持续6-9个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> The second phase, Expand, is characterized by<i>value building.</i>Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.</p><p><blockquote>第二阶段，扩展，其特征是<i>价值建设。</i>Palantir专注于了解客户的挑战并应对这些挑战。这些客户向Palantir提供较大收入合同，但通常也代表负贡献利润率。</blockquote></p><p> I know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptor<i>bespoke.</i></p><p><blockquote>我知道，连续两个阶段的无利可图的产品交付。然而，这一阶段的特点是Palantir的个性化价值创造几乎呈病毒式扩张，这得益于收购阶段6-9个月的数据摄取和客户反馈。正是在这个阶段，Palantir的产品开始配得上这个描述<i>定制的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Expand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.</p><p><blockquote>Expand是由首席执行官Alex Karp本人推动的，在大流行之前，他每年有250天亲自拜访客户。这也许是卡普最不可磨灭的贡献；这位首席执行官为一家从未有过销售人员的公司担任销售人员。Palantir的客户是鲸鱼。卡普是亚哈船长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比例</b></blockquote></p><p> The word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.</p><p><blockquote>“规模”一词在Palantir S-1中被使用了整整44次，Palantir将规模客户定义为那些贡献具有正边际的成熟合同的客户。在规模化过程中，我们见证了Palantir单位经济效益的逆转。随着客户账户的成熟，Palantir的投资成本会降低。客户现在可以独立操作，在Foundry或Gotham之上构建自己的应用程序。这会带来新的用例、更少的服务费以及更大比例的高利润经常性收入。</blockquote></p><p>   It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.  Source:Palantir S-1</p><p><blockquote>正是在我们与客户合作的规模阶段，我们通常会看到特定账户的贡献率有所提高。2019年，我们在规模阶段从客户那里获得了5.657亿美元的收入，贡献率为55%。2020年上半年，这些客户创造了2.963亿美元的收入，贡献率为68%。资料来源：Palantir S-1</blockquote></p><p> And also:</p><p><blockquote>还有：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.</b>We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a  <b>contribution margin during the period of 89%.</b>  Source:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine</p><p><blockquote><b>我们相信，从长远来看，我们所有的客户都将进入规模化阶段。</b>我们还相信，随着我们在整个客户运营中部署我们的软件平台以及管理和运营我们的软件方面变得更加高效，规模阶段账户的边际贡献将进一步增加……2020年上半年，前25%的客户截至2019年底，规模阶段的边际贡献为<b>期内供款率为89%。</b>资料来源：Palantir S-1，重点矿</blockquote></p><p> For those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:<b>Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.</b>As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些因Palantir无法盈利而苦恼的人，请注意：<b>Palantir刚刚开始利用这条护城河来推动接近90%的天文数字贡献率。</b>随着Palantir将更多客户从扩张转向规模化，利润率将会提高，成本将会降低，收入集中度将会多元化。随着Palantir优化并在某些情况下自动化软件部署，我预计获取和扩展周期会缩短，从而使飞轮旋转得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604faf2a51bd7d6e60abbc5d89663571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着更多客户使用产品，产品变得更有价值</i></blockquote></p><p> In Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,”&nbsp;is listed&nbsp;within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，“产生网络效应”列在第一原则部分。他们接着描述了随着越来越多的员工使用Palantir的软件如何对客户变得更有价值。</blockquote></p><p>   At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.  -Source:Palantir’s S-1</p><p><blockquote>在一家金融服务客户中，network effects使我们的平台能够从单个用例扩展到跨合规、前台、风险和内部审计部门的70多个工作流。-资料来源：Palantir的S-1</blockquote></p><p> Imagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你是奥克兰银行的一名穿着毛衣背心的软件工程师，刚刚同意进行代工试点。当您啜饮燕麦牛奶拿铁时，您开始点击Foundry信息仪表板，慢慢地探索和试验Foundry平台。你意识到你可以在注入人工智能的应用程序上运行数据分析，并开始识别效率低下的地方，这些地方与你的团队和主管分享（让你看起来很聪明）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>随着Foundry用于识别优化目标，开发人员开始在Foundry之上构建他们自己的应用层，它识别新的用例和新的应用，并添加新的层。Palantir的网络效应表现为数字歌剧蛋糕；随着效用产生效用，不可磨灭的用例堆栈越来越高。这是Palantir的第二条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.</p><p><blockquote>我相信也有特定行业的网络效应在起作用。与Palantir当前客户空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)相比，波音公司(NYSE：BA)的Palantir软件部署有多大不同？我敢打赌，不多。</blockquote></p><p> The Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended to<i>any</i>pharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>生命科学领域是另一个例子，Palantir将其确定为未来的主要增长领域。Palantir透露，一家排名前5的制药公司正在使用Foundry来整合数千项临床试验的基因分型和实验室数据。这种经验可以推广到<i>任何</i>制药公司，Palantir与该客户的合作使我们能够预见此类公司将从中受益的无数用例。这里的远见不是无形的；对于与Palantir签署协议的每一个额外的特定行业客户来说，它可以以更低的成本加速产品扩展。</blockquote></p><p> This moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir最大的客户不断扩张并续签更大的合同，这条护城河在数字上得到了证实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Switching</b>&nbsp;<b>Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>切换</b> <b>成本</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Customers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier</i></p><p><blockquote><i>如果客户转向不同的产品供应商，他们将遭受价值损失</i></blockquote></p><p> This is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是Palantir最容易强调的护城河。如果您对机器学习有基本的了解，您可能会直觉到像Palantir这样的数据分析公司会有很高的转换成本。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there is a<i>point of no return</i>for customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.</p><p><blockquote>我相信有个<i>不归路</i>对于处于销售周期扩展阶段的客户。在这一点上，代工用例正在成倍增加，效率正在实现，软件正在变得越来越少的服务，而更多的是企业的中央操作系统。在给定的组织中，Palantir会整理数PB的数据并将其提炼为可操作的流程，Foundry每天都会更好地了解组织的需求。请记住，这可能是客户关系的18个月，Foundry已成为公司工作流程中的日常分析工具。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这是不归路，因为这里的替代方案是不可想象的。首先，这个替代软件提供商是谁？布勒？即使有类似于Foundry的服务，但没有，你也要从头再来。企业希望加速，不，奔向数字化、人工智能驱动的未来。尝试向高级管理层解释，我们必须在18个月内停止代工业务，因为价格太高。您必须回到第0天进行数据收集、分析和提炼。这将是最大规模的努力、时间和费用的重复。在Expand的某个地方，你陷得太深了——如果你关灯，冰淇淋就会融化。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir最大的合同是Palantir最长的客户。这不是巧合。这是Palantir的第三条护城河。随着客户成为Palantir产品的深度用户，转换成本只会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Commodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>商品软件服务永远不会享有Palantir所拥有的战略优势。如果你的公司从Skype转向Zoom，这真的有那么大的问题吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir'sBranding</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的品牌</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller</i></p><p><blockquote><i>从卖方的历史信息中产生的客观上相同的产品的更高价值的持久属性</i></blockquote></p><p> The Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.</p><p><blockquote>在可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）等基本消费品的背景下，品牌护城河更容易理解。例如，我可能会花双倍的钱买一杯可口可乐。</blockquote></p><p> Making this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.</p><p><blockquote>在数据分析软件中进行这种比较是一个挑战，因为我不相信Palantir有相同的产品。然而，假设一下，让我们假设这样一家公司存在。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir自2003年成立以来已打造了一个标志性品牌。起诉美国，过去18年来，Palantir一直由中央情报局资助，与识别和击毙奥萨马·本·拉登有关。军队和胜利，并精心策划了一个阴谋和表面上超自然的分析能力的叙事。但这种公司形象并不是我在这里要强调的品牌护城河。</blockquote></p><p> This is the publicly traded company the<i>U.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program</i>. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家上市公司<i>美国政府雇佣员工来管理他们的核计划</i>.这是NHS雇佣的公司，在我们这个时代最大的公共卫生危机期间管理个人防护设备库存和疫苗推广。在过去的二十年里，Palantir拥有在我国面临的最极端情况下度过难关的记录。我认为，对于美国政府来说，没有哪家软件公司比Palantir更能体现可靠性和安全性。这是一个经久不衰的品牌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The below press releases were announced over the past two months<i>alone</i>:</p><p><blockquote>以下是过去两个月发布的新闻稿<i>单独的</i>：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response</li>  <li>Palantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command</li>  <li>Palantir and Space Force Expand Partnership</li> </ul> I don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CDC与Palantir续签疾病监测和疫情应对合作伙伴关系</li><li>Palantir获得价值1.11亿美元的合同，为美国特种作战司令部提供任务指挥平台</li><li>Palantir与太空军扩大合作伙伴关系</li></ul>我不在乎你对Palantir的估值有多悲观。没有一家软件公司拥有Palantir在美国政府及其海外盟友中所拥有的品牌价值。随着Palantir扩展到商业领域，客户越来越关注网络安全和数据保真度……哪个竞争对手能指出Palantir的简历？当误差幅度必须为零，并且您正在展望一个不会失败的场景时，请押注Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Counter-Positioning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>反向定位</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>A newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business</i></p><p><blockquote><i>新进入者采用了一种新的、优越的商业模式，而在位者由于预期对其现有业务造成损害而不会模仿这种模式</i></blockquote></p><p> Counter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the&nbsp;digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.</p><p><blockquote>反向定位是一条独特的护城河，我认为数字钱包领域的Square(SQ)最能代表这一点。现有银行的行动完全是为了对抗Square的举措，部分原因是监管，部分原因是竞争被低估，但主要是因为提供数字钱包解决方案可能会蚕食银行的核心产品。这就是反定位护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的反向定位护城河可能不太明显。首先，谁是现任者？Palantir的技术极具颠覆性，因此很难理解天然竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> For Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbent<i>was</i>the government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.</p><p><blockquote>对于哥谭市（政府）来说，现任<i>什么</i>政府；美国。陆军、国防部、中央情报局等。让我们把时钟拨回到2015年。美国。陆军发布了一份招标书，寻求建造分布式通用地面系统-陆军（DCGS-A）。这将是一个集成的数据分析框架，可以从众多来源收集数据，跨一套分析工具无缝共享数据，并为战场上的士兵提供易于使用的可视化。听起来很熟悉？对我来说，这听起来就像Palantir的Gotham产品。</blockquote></p><p> DCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>DCGS-A实际上是一个酝酿了十多年的陆军内部项目，开发成本为30亿美元。Palantir以低得多的成本参与了竞标，但陆军选择继续自己的内部开发。Palantir最终对陆军提起诉讼，辩称哥谭市提供了陆军试图建设的确切服务，而且成本只是陆军试图建设的一小部分。2016年10月，一名联邦法官做出了有利于Palantir（2377）的裁决，并开创了政府必须在最大实际范围内采购商业服务和产品的先例。陆军对此提出上诉，但后来于2018年在美国上诉法院维持原判。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70fc6c13c9c0d3ca0b559fd48bdff1da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Palantir S-1 Filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir S-1文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir针对陆军的里程碑式诉讼出人意料地加深了与美国政府的关系。诉讼发生后的一年，Palantir的陆军收入相当于前11年的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.</p><p><blockquote>与现有银行类似，规模也会产生官僚主义和惰性。尽管美国政府拥有巨大的影响力和权力，但它要么选择在数据分析方面投资不足，行动过于缓慢，要么低估了私营部门的创新步伐。可能每种都有一些。</blockquote></p><p> These same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.</p><p><blockquote>这些同样的竞争问题也出现在私营部门。甲骨文(ORCL)和SAP(SAP)等大型企业软件巨头在过去十年里一直在为“足够好”的产品建立销售团队。与此同时，Palantir在没有知名销售人员的情况下一直在痴迷地扩大和完善他们的产品（稍后将详细介绍）。Palantir在过去18年里的全部重点是设计伟大的产品，而现有企业现在刚刚感受到企业软件文化转变的深刻、几乎是全球性的呻吟，以及错失机会的哀叹。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在通过投资数据分析领域几家年轻、颠覆性的公司来深化其反定位护城河。在我之前的Palantir文章中，Palantir的SPAC：你看到卡普所看到的了吗？，我将Palantir对这些公司的投资概述为扩大市场覆盖范围和建立有价值的投资组合的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.</p><p><blockquote>从那以后，我在这个分析中又增加了一层。这些投资公司不仅扩大了Palantir的市场影响力，而且还是Palantir产品的灯塔，是可能表明velocity Foundry对产品路线图和上市步伐做出贡献的使者。通过与这些公司合作，Palantir巩固了其技术领先地位，并展示了对其声誉所依据的创新产品DNA的承诺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Cornered Resources</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>被垄断的资源</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Preferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value</i></p><p><blockquote><i>以有吸引力的条款优先获得可以独立增值的令人垂涎的资产</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有两种资源，使其相对于竞争对手具有显着优势：技术和人才。我将从泰尔对技术优势的定义开始。这是雄心勃勃的，但Palantir清除了这个障碍。</blockquote></p><p>   As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”  - Peter Thiel, Co-Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir,<i>Zero to One</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一个很好的经验法则，专有技术必须在某些重要方面比最接近的替代品至少好10倍，才能带来真正的垄断优势。”-Peter Thiel，Palantir联合创始人兼董事长，<i>零比一</i></blockquote></p><p> Ten times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.</p><p><blockquote>好了十倍。当提供的产品比替代产品好10倍时，惊人的事情就会发生。SpaceX（太空）火箭的效率比NASA高10倍，在Bumble（BMBL）结识下一个男朋友比在当地酒吧容易10倍，在Netflix（NFLX）上观看《指环王》比开车去百思买（BBY）买一套DVD容易10倍。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwise<i>never existed</i>. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.</p><p><blockquote>尽管还处于早期阶段，但Palantir的软件在几个方面似乎已经比竞争对手好10倍。例如，在2021年第一季度，Gotham被用来使国防部所有11个作战司令部能够从情报、作战、后勤和供应数据中产生综合战略决策优势。这种能力否则<i>从未存在过</i>.Palantir的软件非常先进，它不断发明新的用例，这证明了这些产品所代表的对数改进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03bd98e9e9f53009b19523de56ceb5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续在创新方面超越竞争对手。在Palantir的2020年第四季度收益演示中，他们提供了国防部影响6级(IL-6)状态轨迹的最新信息。他们是世界上仅有的四家IL-5公司（关键任务信息国家安全系统）之一，目标是IL-6，这将使他们成为机密国家安全系统的第一个SaaS。作为参照系，IL-2公司包括数据分析巨头Snowflake(SNOW)和Google(GOOG)。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的数据更好，因为Palantir的数据质量更好。在分析中，我们非常重视数据量，因此数据质量更加重要。十多年来，哥谭市一直在泥地、太空和海底嗡嗡作响，被最严酷和最苛刻的场景所告知。哥谭是经过战斗考验的企业软件。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的第二个陷入困境的资源是人才。据报道，卡普对顶尖工程人才的嗅觉和吸引能力导致了一份几乎无法效仿的名人录。</blockquote></p><p> As an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:</p><p><blockquote>作为一名投资者，我可以接受Palantir空头涂鸦他们的稀释现金流模型以及基于股票的薪酬如何影响它。但这些熊不能同日而语：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Complain about Palantir’s SBC and--</li>  <li>Argue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent</li> </ol> Palantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>抱怨Palantir的SBC和--</li><li>认为Palantir没有工程人才护城河</li></ol>Palantir正在通过SBC和改变世界的机会激励工程和产品人才。如果一支NFL球队没有工资帽，每个位置都将由联盟中的顶级球员填补。这就是卡普所做的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Process Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>过程功率</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Embedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment</i></p><p><blockquote><i>嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品，并且只能通过扩展承诺来匹配</i></blockquote></p><p> Process Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.</p><p><blockquote>流程能力是Palantir的第七条也是最后一条护城河。最明显的例子是产品部署速度和Palantir产品的综合性。</blockquote></p><p>   An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.  -Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update</p><p><blockquote>一家能源巨头在几个小时内部署了我们的ERP套件。在两周内，他们节省了5700万美元的现金，预计年化将节省10亿美元。-Palantir 2020年第三季度业务更新</blockquote></p><p> Traditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手提供的传统高接触软件解决方案以路线图的方式交付，最终产品交付有时需要几个月甚至几年的时间。Palantir的软件可以在数小时内部署并实现效益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.</p><p><blockquote>此外，没有竞争对手拥有Palantir所提供的全面数据分析产品。这意味着不使用Palantir的客户要承担数十家独立公司的许可费，这些公司的软件通常无法相互通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1a1a03982b19a3b4181802ebb450f6\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"758\"><span>Source:The Generalist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通才</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir已经构建了完整的数据分析应用程序堆栈，并将根据客户的需要继续这样做。由此产生的产品如此引人注目且交付速度如此之快，以至于Palantir没有任何直接竞争对手。在上图中，概述了Palantir的19种产品应用，并提供了简要描述以及哪些竞争对手提供了类似的产品。请注意，下一个最全面的产品来自Tableau，只有四种产品与Palantir重叠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033d44206281f6449c0178f2f5943681\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"><span>Source: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Me，在Palantir S-1文件的帮助下</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.</p><p><blockquote>当我最初开始撰写有关Palantir流程能力的笔记时，产品部署速度及其全面性等功能立即显而易见。然而，我对Palantir的商业模式思考得越多，我就越开始看到第二条护城河，一条更宽、更深的护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.</p><p><blockquote>也许Palantir最大的战略优势是其产品为客户提供了流程能力护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Said another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，Foundry和Gotham允许客户建立自己的工艺能力护城河。如果您是一家使用Palantir的财富100强公司，随着您的供应链实现共振、低效率被削减以及产品路线图斜率垂直，您对竞争对手的领先优势将会扩大。Palantir的软件允许客户查看以其命名的非常引人注目的石头。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir认识到了这条护城河，这就是他们积极投资早期数据公司的原因——因此他们可能会在Palantir护城河保护的快速增长的业务中分得一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.</p><p><blockquote>我着迷于用王朝的持久力建立堡垒般的企业的概念。只有少数公司能够拥有Palantir的七种力量，而且在数据分析领域还没有一家公司。Palantir的规模经济、网络效应、品牌、反向定位、垄断资源和流程能力为其自身、投资者和客户创造巨大价值奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Over the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,<i>enduringly valuable</i>. Palantir is building a dynasty.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几十年里，这些护城河将汇集并相互作用，推动一个常青的飞轮，使Palantir能够创建一项业务，用Helmer的话说，<i>持久有价值</i>.Palantir正在建立一个王朝。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Moats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.</li>  <li>There are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.</li>  <li>These moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0361567f2939770c4946a5568ce8dc7e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1033\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>护城河是企业为保护利润和产生持久力而建立的竞争优势。</li><li>护城河有七种类型，伟大的公司通常有两到三种。Palantir拥有全部七个。</li><li>这些护城河将使Palantir能够建立具有持久影响力和盈利能力的业务。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻简介：论建立王朝</b></blockquote></p><p> In the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.</p><p><blockquote>16世纪中叶，日本陷入了全面内战。</blockquote></p><p> Oda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.</p><p><blockquote>织田信长，一个被认为是“伟大的统一者”（或战场上的“魔王”）的武士，正在成为全日本最强大的武士军阀。他的名字已经成为军事才华的代名词，他有能力推翻更强大的对手。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有强大的力量，但佛教中的一个派别——一心一意的一辉（联盟）——开始巩固权力，建造堡垒，积累越来越多的武僧。Ikko一辉最终在今天大阪的石山本愿寺（石山）建立了自己的堡垒。</blockquote></p><p> By the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.</p><p><blockquote>到了16世纪60年代，信长已经击败了日本所有反对的武士军阀，只有一晃一辉阻止了信长用他的霸权覆盖日本。</blockquote></p><p> And so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.</p><p><blockquote>因此，1570年，信长带着30,000名士兵出发前往石山本愿寺，其中许多人接受过早期版本的火绳枪的训练。信长本人手持日本最著名的剑——“道吉里安纲”。传说道吉里安纲被用来杀死当时最可怕的恶魔——酒吞道吉。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有大量武器，但他对石山本愿寺要塞的进攻并没有成功。他的部队围攻石山十年，他被击退了十年。事实上，1580年一光一号最终投降时，是应朝廷的要求，而不是要塞被攻破。</blockquote></p><p> So how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?</p><p><blockquote>那么一晃一辉是如何抵挡住中世纪日本最可怕的幕府将军的呢？</blockquote></p><p> A moat, of course.</p><p><blockquote>当然是护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Flowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.</p><p><blockquote>环绕石山大教堂要塞的是一条错综复杂的护城河，上面是毫无特色的城墙。由于有了护城河，这些城墙不能被攻城塔或隧道攻击。它们不能被攀爬或跨越。它无懈可击。</blockquote></p><p> In reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.</p><p><blockquote>关于这种可以防御攻击者10年或更长时间的中世纪结构，“护城河”一词从此成为衡量企业寿命的常用指标。我欣赏历史有意义的时候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s Seven Moats</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的七大护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”</i>  -Peter Thiel, Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir</p><p><blockquote><i>增长很容易衡量，但持久性却不容易。如果你把短期增长看得比什么都重要，你就错过了你应该问的最重要的问题：十年后，这项业务还会存在吗？光靠数字是不会告诉你答案的；相反，你必须批判性地思考你的业务的质量特征。”</i>—Peter Thiel，Palantir创始人兼董事长</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.</p><p><blockquote>在《7种权力》一书中，汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)写道，企业可以用来指导价值创造工作的七条护城河。赫尔默认为，通过将卓越运营与深思熟虑的护城河建设相结合，企业或许能够使自己具有持久的价值。这七种力量是：规模经济、网络效应、反向定位、转换成本、品牌、垄断资源和流程力量。</blockquote></p><p> Helmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.</p><p><blockquote>赫尔默概述了以现代企业为代表的这些护城河的案例研究。Pixar拥有智囊团（被垄断的资源），Nike（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）可以为一双鞋收取比竞争对手（品牌）更高的费用，而Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）的内容制作成本随着订户的增加而降低（规模经济）。世界上最具标志性的公司有两条，也许三条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has all seven.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)拥有全部七项。</blockquote></p><p> I know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.</p><p><blockquote>我知道这听起来很疯狂，因为Palantir九个月前上市，是的，它仍然没有盈利。是的，基于股票的薪酬是丰厚的。是的，收入集中，是的，估值乐观。对所有这些都是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> No take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.</p><p><blockquote>没有收回。Palantir有七条护城河。让我给你看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's Scale Economies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的规模经济</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The quality of declining unit costs as volume increases</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着数量的增加，单位成本下降的质量</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的销售周期可能是其商业模式中最被误解的方面。反对者认为Palantir是一家服务公司。以每股35美元的价格买入的购物者认为Palantir是一家SaaS公司。他们都是对的。</blockquote></p><p> Gotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”</p><p><blockquote>Gotham和Foundry为政府和商业客户提供高利润的经常性软件合同。与此同时，Palantir引进技术顾问来扩大和成熟这些合同。Palantir将这个销售周期描述为“收购、扩张和规模化”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Acquire</b></p><p><blockquote><b>获得</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Palantir<i>is</i>a software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.</p><p><blockquote>而Palantir<i>是</i>作为一家软件公司，它与其他分享这个标签的公司截然不同。例如，向企业销售Zoom（ZM）这样的软件和销售Foundry之间存在一些差异。截至2021年第一季度，Palantir报告每位客户的年收入为810万美元。这种惊人的产品收入掩盖了Palantir产品的价值，但也凸显了其销售周期的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，Acquire客户被描述为那些享受Palantir技术短期试点部署的客户。Palantir亏本运营这些账户，并指出这一销售阶段通常平均持续6-9个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> The second phase, Expand, is characterized by<i>value building.</i>Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.</p><p><blockquote>第二阶段，扩展，其特征是<i>价值建设。</i>Palantir专注于了解客户的挑战并应对这些挑战。这些客户向Palantir提供较大收入合同，但通常也代表负贡献利润率。</blockquote></p><p> I know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptor<i>bespoke.</i></p><p><blockquote>我知道，连续两个阶段的无利可图的产品交付。然而，这一阶段的特点是Palantir的个性化价值创造几乎呈病毒式扩张，这得益于收购阶段6-9个月的数据摄取和客户反馈。正是在这个阶段，Palantir的产品开始配得上这个描述<i>定制的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Expand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.</p><p><blockquote>Expand是由首席执行官Alex Karp本人推动的，在大流行之前，他每年有250天亲自拜访客户。这也许是卡普最不可磨灭的贡献；这位首席执行官为一家从未有过销售人员的公司担任销售人员。Palantir的客户是鲸鱼。卡普是亚哈船长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比例</b></blockquote></p><p> The word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.</p><p><blockquote>“规模”一词在Palantir S-1中被使用了整整44次，Palantir将规模客户定义为那些贡献具有正边际的成熟合同的客户。在规模化过程中，我们见证了Palantir单位经济效益的逆转。随着客户账户的成熟，Palantir的投资成本会降低。客户现在可以独立操作，在Foundry或Gotham之上构建自己的应用程序。这会带来新的用例、更少的服务费以及更大比例的高利润经常性收入。</blockquote></p><p>   It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.  Source:Palantir S-1</p><p><blockquote>正是在我们与客户合作的规模阶段，我们通常会看到特定账户的贡献率有所提高。2019年，我们在规模阶段从客户那里获得了5.657亿美元的收入，贡献率为55%。2020年上半年，这些客户创造了2.963亿美元的收入，贡献率为68%。资料来源：Palantir S-1</blockquote></p><p> And also:</p><p><blockquote>还有：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.</b>We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a  <b>contribution margin during the period of 89%.</b>  Source:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine</p><p><blockquote><b>我们相信，从长远来看，我们所有的客户都将进入规模化阶段。</b>我们还相信，随着我们在整个客户运营中部署我们的软件平台以及管理和运营我们的软件方面变得更加高效，规模阶段账户的边际贡献将进一步增加……2020年上半年，前25%的客户截至2019年底，规模阶段的边际贡献为<b>期内供款率为89%。</b>资料来源：Palantir S-1，重点矿</blockquote></p><p> For those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:<b>Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.</b>As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些因Palantir无法盈利而苦恼的人，请注意：<b>Palantir刚刚开始利用这条护城河来推动接近90%的天文数字贡献率。</b>随着Palantir将更多客户从扩张转向规模化，利润率将会提高，成本将会降低，收入集中度将会多元化。随着Palantir优化并在某些情况下自动化软件部署，我预计获取和扩展周期会缩短，从而使飞轮旋转得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604faf2a51bd7d6e60abbc5d89663571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着更多客户使用产品，产品变得更有价值</i></blockquote></p><p> In Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,”&nbsp;is listed&nbsp;within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，“产生网络效应”列在第一原则部分。他们接着描述了随着越来越多的员工使用Palantir的软件如何对客户变得更有价值。</blockquote></p><p>   At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.  -Source:Palantir’s S-1</p><p><blockquote>在一家金融服务客户中，network effects使我们的平台能够从单个用例扩展到跨合规、前台、风险和内部审计部门的70多个工作流。-资料来源：Palantir的S-1</blockquote></p><p> Imagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你是奥克兰银行的一名穿着毛衣背心的软件工程师，刚刚同意进行代工试点。当您啜饮燕麦牛奶拿铁时，您开始点击Foundry信息仪表板，慢慢地探索和试验Foundry平台。你意识到你可以在注入人工智能的应用程序上运行数据分析，并开始识别效率低下的地方，这些地方与你的团队和主管分享（让你看起来很聪明）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>随着Foundry用于识别优化目标，开发人员开始在Foundry之上构建他们自己的应用层，它识别新的用例和新的应用，并添加新的层。Palantir的网络效应表现为数字歌剧蛋糕；随着效用产生效用，不可磨灭的用例堆栈越来越高。这是Palantir的第二条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.</p><p><blockquote>我相信也有特定行业的网络效应在起作用。与Palantir当前客户空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)相比，波音公司(NYSE：BA)的Palantir软件部署有多大不同？我敢打赌，不多。</blockquote></p><p> The Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended to<i>any</i>pharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>生命科学领域是另一个例子，Palantir将其确定为未来的主要增长领域。Palantir透露，一家排名前5的制药公司正在使用Foundry来整合数千项临床试验的基因分型和实验室数据。这种经验可以推广到<i>任何</i>制药公司，Palantir与该客户的合作使我们能够预见此类公司将从中受益的无数用例。这里的远见不是无形的；对于与Palantir签署协议的每一个额外的特定行业客户来说，它可以以更低的成本加速产品扩展。</blockquote></p><p> This moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir最大的客户不断扩张并续签更大的合同，这条护城河在数字上得到了证实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Switching</b>&nbsp;<b>Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>切换</b> <b>成本</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Customers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier</i></p><p><blockquote><i>如果客户转向不同的产品供应商，他们将遭受价值损失</i></blockquote></p><p> This is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是Palantir最容易强调的护城河。如果您对机器学习有基本的了解，您可能会直觉到像Palantir这样的数据分析公司会有很高的转换成本。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there is a<i>point of no return</i>for customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.</p><p><blockquote>我相信有个<i>不归路</i>对于处于销售周期扩展阶段的客户。在这一点上，代工用例正在成倍增加，效率正在实现，软件正在变得越来越少的服务，而更多的是企业的中央操作系统。在给定的组织中，Palantir会整理数PB的数据并将其提炼为可操作的流程，Foundry每天都会更好地了解组织的需求。请记住，这可能是客户关系的18个月，Foundry已成为公司工作流程中的日常分析工具。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这是不归路，因为这里的替代方案是不可想象的。首先，这个替代软件提供商是谁？布勒？即使有类似于Foundry的服务，但没有，你也要从头再来。企业希望加速，不，奔向数字化、人工智能驱动的未来。尝试向高级管理层解释，我们必须在18个月内停止代工业务，因为价格太高。您必须回到第0天进行数据收集、分析和提炼。这将是最大规模的努力、时间和费用的重复。在Expand的某个地方，你陷得太深了——如果你关灯，冰淇淋就会融化。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir最大的合同是Palantir最长的客户。这不是巧合。这是Palantir的第三条护城河。随着客户成为Palantir产品的深度用户，转换成本只会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Commodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>商品软件服务永远不会享有Palantir所拥有的战略优势。如果你的公司从Skype转向Zoom，这真的有那么大的问题吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir'sBranding</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的品牌</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller</i></p><p><blockquote><i>从卖方的历史信息中产生的客观上相同的产品的更高价值的持久属性</i></blockquote></p><p> The Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.</p><p><blockquote>在可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）等基本消费品的背景下，品牌护城河更容易理解。例如，我可能会花双倍的钱买一杯可口可乐。</blockquote></p><p> Making this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.</p><p><blockquote>在数据分析软件中进行这种比较是一个挑战，因为我不相信Palantir有相同的产品。然而，假设一下，让我们假设这样一家公司存在。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir自2003年成立以来已打造了一个标志性品牌。起诉美国，过去18年来，Palantir一直由中央情报局资助，与识别和击毙奥萨马·本·拉登有关。军队和胜利，并精心策划了一个阴谋和表面上超自然的分析能力的叙事。但这种公司形象并不是我在这里要强调的品牌护城河。</blockquote></p><p> This is the publicly traded company the<i>U.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program</i>. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家上市公司<i>美国政府雇佣员工来管理他们的核计划</i>.这是NHS雇佣的公司，在我们这个时代最大的公共卫生危机期间管理个人防护设备库存和疫苗推广。在过去的二十年里，Palantir拥有在我国面临的最极端情况下度过难关的记录。我认为，对于美国政府来说，没有哪家软件公司比Palantir更能体现可靠性和安全性。这是一个经久不衰的品牌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The below press releases were announced over the past two months<i>alone</i>:</p><p><blockquote>以下是过去两个月发布的新闻稿<i>单独的</i>：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response</li>  <li>Palantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command</li>  <li>Palantir and Space Force Expand Partnership</li> </ul> I don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CDC与Palantir续签疾病监测和疫情应对合作伙伴关系</li><li>Palantir获得价值1.11亿美元的合同，为美国特种作战司令部提供任务指挥平台</li><li>Palantir与太空军扩大合作伙伴关系</li></ul>我不在乎你对Palantir的估值有多悲观。没有一家软件公司拥有Palantir在美国政府及其海外盟友中所拥有的品牌价值。随着Palantir扩展到商业领域，客户越来越关注网络安全和数据保真度……哪个竞争对手能指出Palantir的简历？当误差幅度必须为零，并且您正在展望一个不会失败的场景时，请押注Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Counter-Positioning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>反向定位</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>A newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business</i></p><p><blockquote><i>新进入者采用了一种新的、优越的商业模式，而在位者由于预期对其现有业务造成损害而不会模仿这种模式</i></blockquote></p><p> Counter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the&nbsp;digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.</p><p><blockquote>反向定位是一条独特的护城河，我认为数字钱包领域的Square(SQ)最能代表这一点。现有银行的行动完全是为了对抗Square的举措，部分原因是监管，部分原因是竞争被低估，但主要是因为提供数字钱包解决方案可能会蚕食银行的核心产品。这就是反定位护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的反向定位护城河可能不太明显。首先，谁是现任者？Palantir的技术极具颠覆性，因此很难理解天然竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> For Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbent<i>was</i>the government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.</p><p><blockquote>对于哥谭市（政府）来说，现任<i>什么</i>政府；美国。陆军、国防部、中央情报局等。让我们把时钟拨回到2015年。美国。陆军发布了一份招标书，寻求建造分布式通用地面系统-陆军（DCGS-A）。这将是一个集成的数据分析框架，可以从众多来源收集数据，跨一套分析工具无缝共享数据，并为战场上的士兵提供易于使用的可视化。听起来很熟悉？对我来说，这听起来就像Palantir的Gotham产品。</blockquote></p><p> DCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>DCGS-A实际上是一个酝酿了十多年的陆军内部项目，开发成本为30亿美元。Palantir以低得多的成本参与了竞标，但陆军选择继续自己的内部开发。Palantir最终对陆军提起诉讼，辩称哥谭市提供了陆军试图建设的确切服务，而且成本只是陆军试图建设的一小部分。2016年10月，一名联邦法官做出了有利于Palantir（2377）的裁决，并开创了政府必须在最大实际范围内采购商业服务和产品的先例。陆军对此提出上诉，但后来于2018年在美国上诉法院维持原判。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70fc6c13c9c0d3ca0b559fd48bdff1da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Palantir S-1 Filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir S-1文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir针对陆军的里程碑式诉讼出人意料地加深了与美国政府的关系。诉讼发生后的一年，Palantir的陆军收入相当于前11年的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.</p><p><blockquote>与现有银行类似，规模也会产生官僚主义和惰性。尽管美国政府拥有巨大的影响力和权力，但它要么选择在数据分析方面投资不足，行动过于缓慢，要么低估了私营部门的创新步伐。可能每种都有一些。</blockquote></p><p> These same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.</p><p><blockquote>这些同样的竞争问题也出现在私营部门。甲骨文(ORCL)和SAP(SAP)等大型企业软件巨头在过去十年里一直在为“足够好”的产品建立销售团队。与此同时，Palantir在没有知名销售人员的情况下一直在痴迷地扩大和完善他们的产品（稍后将详细介绍）。Palantir在过去18年里的全部重点是设计伟大的产品，而现有企业现在刚刚感受到企业软件文化转变的深刻、几乎是全球性的呻吟，以及错失机会的哀叹。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在通过投资数据分析领域几家年轻、颠覆性的公司来深化其反定位护城河。在我之前的Palantir文章中，Palantir的SPAC：你看到卡普所看到的了吗？，我将Palantir对这些公司的投资概述为扩大市场覆盖范围和建立有价值的投资组合的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.</p><p><blockquote>从那以后，我在这个分析中又增加了一层。这些投资公司不仅扩大了Palantir的市场影响力，而且还是Palantir产品的灯塔，是可能表明velocity Foundry对产品路线图和上市步伐做出贡献的使者。通过与这些公司合作，Palantir巩固了其技术领先地位，并展示了对其声誉所依据的创新产品DNA的承诺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Cornered Resources</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>被垄断的资源</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Preferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value</i></p><p><blockquote><i>以有吸引力的条款优先获得可以独立增值的令人垂涎的资产</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有两种资源，使其相对于竞争对手具有显着优势：技术和人才。我将从泰尔对技术优势的定义开始。这是雄心勃勃的，但Palantir清除了这个障碍。</blockquote></p><p>   As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”  - Peter Thiel, Co-Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir,<i>Zero to One</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一个很好的经验法则，专有技术必须在某些重要方面比最接近的替代品至少好10倍，才能带来真正的垄断优势。”-Peter Thiel，Palantir联合创始人兼董事长，<i>零比一</i></blockquote></p><p> Ten times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.</p><p><blockquote>好了十倍。当提供的产品比替代产品好10倍时，惊人的事情就会发生。SpaceX（太空）火箭的效率比NASA高10倍，在Bumble（BMBL）结识下一个男朋友比在当地酒吧容易10倍，在Netflix（NFLX）上观看《指环王》比开车去百思买（BBY）买一套DVD容易10倍。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwise<i>never existed</i>. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.</p><p><blockquote>尽管还处于早期阶段，但Palantir的软件在几个方面似乎已经比竞争对手好10倍。例如，在2021年第一季度，Gotham被用来使国防部所有11个作战司令部能够从情报、作战、后勤和供应数据中产生综合战略决策优势。这种能力否则<i>从未存在过</i>.Palantir的软件非常先进，它不断发明新的用例，这证明了这些产品所代表的对数改进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03bd98e9e9f53009b19523de56ceb5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续在创新方面超越竞争对手。在Palantir的2020年第四季度收益演示中，他们提供了国防部影响6级(IL-6)状态轨迹的最新信息。他们是世界上仅有的四家IL-5公司（关键任务信息国家安全系统）之一，目标是IL-6，这将使他们成为机密国家安全系统的第一个SaaS。作为参照系，IL-2公司包括数据分析巨头Snowflake(SNOW)和Google(GOOG)。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的数据更好，因为Palantir的数据质量更好。在分析中，我们非常重视数据量，因此数据质量更加重要。十多年来，哥谭市一直在泥地、太空和海底嗡嗡作响，被最严酷和最苛刻的场景所告知。哥谭是经过战斗考验的企业软件。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的第二个陷入困境的资源是人才。据报道，卡普对顶尖工程人才的嗅觉和吸引能力导致了一份几乎无法效仿的名人录。</blockquote></p><p> As an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:</p><p><blockquote>作为一名投资者，我可以接受Palantir空头涂鸦他们的稀释现金流模型以及基于股票的薪酬如何影响它。但这些熊不能同日而语：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Complain about Palantir’s SBC and--</li>  <li>Argue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent</li> </ol> Palantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>抱怨Palantir的SBC和--</li><li>认为Palantir没有工程人才护城河</li></ol>Palantir正在通过SBC和改变世界的机会激励工程和产品人才。如果一支NFL球队没有工资帽，每个位置都将由联盟中的顶级球员填补。这就是卡普所做的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Process Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>过程功率</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Embedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment</i></p><p><blockquote><i>嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品，并且只能通过扩展承诺来匹配</i></blockquote></p><p> Process Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.</p><p><blockquote>流程能力是Palantir的第七条也是最后一条护城河。最明显的例子是产品部署速度和Palantir产品的综合性。</blockquote></p><p>   An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.  -Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update</p><p><blockquote>一家能源巨头在几个小时内部署了我们的ERP套件。在两周内，他们节省了5700万美元的现金，预计年化将节省10亿美元。-Palantir 2020年第三季度业务更新</blockquote></p><p> Traditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手提供的传统高接触软件解决方案以路线图的方式交付，最终产品交付有时需要几个月甚至几年的时间。Palantir的软件可以在数小时内部署并实现效益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.</p><p><blockquote>此外，没有竞争对手拥有Palantir所提供的全面数据分析产品。这意味着不使用Palantir的客户要承担数十家独立公司的许可费，这些公司的软件通常无法相互通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1a1a03982b19a3b4181802ebb450f6\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"758\"><span>Source:The Generalist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通才</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir已经构建了完整的数据分析应用程序堆栈，并将根据客户的需要继续这样做。由此产生的产品如此引人注目且交付速度如此之快，以至于Palantir没有任何直接竞争对手。在上图中，概述了Palantir的19种产品应用，并提供了简要描述以及哪些竞争对手提供了类似的产品。请注意，下一个最全面的产品来自Tableau，只有四种产品与Palantir重叠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033d44206281f6449c0178f2f5943681\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"><span>Source: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Me，在Palantir S-1文件的帮助下</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.</p><p><blockquote>当我最初开始撰写有关Palantir流程能力的笔记时，产品部署速度及其全面性等功能立即显而易见。然而，我对Palantir的商业模式思考得越多，我就越开始看到第二条护城河，一条更宽、更深的护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.</p><p><blockquote>也许Palantir最大的战略优势是其产品为客户提供了流程能力护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Said another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，Foundry和Gotham允许客户建立自己的工艺能力护城河。如果您是一家使用Palantir的财富100强公司，随着您的供应链实现共振、低效率被削减以及产品路线图斜率垂直，您对竞争对手的领先优势将会扩大。Palantir的软件允许客户查看以其命名的非常引人注目的石头。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir认识到了这条护城河，这就是他们积极投资早期数据公司的原因——因此他们可能会在Palantir护城河保护的快速增长的业务中分得一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.</p><p><blockquote>我着迷于用王朝的持久力建立堡垒般的企业的概念。只有少数公司能够拥有Palantir的七种力量，而且在数据分析领域还没有一家公司。Palantir的规模经济、网络效应、品牌、反向定位、垄断资源和流程能力为其自身、投资者和客户创造巨大价值奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Over the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,<i>enduringly valuable</i>. Palantir is building a dynasty.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几十年里，这些护城河将汇集并相互作用，推动一个常青的飞轮，使Palantir能够创建一项业务，用Helmer的话说，<i>持久有价值</i>.Palantir正在建立一个王朝。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436865-palantir-seven-moats-building-a-dynasty\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436865-palantir-seven-moats-building-a-dynasty","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115559324","content_text":"Summary\n\nMoats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.\nThere are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.\nThese moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images\nNewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty\nIn the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.\nOda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.\nDespite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.\nBy the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.\nAnd so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.\nDespite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.\nSo how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?\nA moat, of course.\nFlowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.\nIn reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.\nPalantir’s Seven Moats\n\nGrowth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”\n\n-Peter Thiel, Founder & Chairman, Palantir\nIn 7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.\nHelmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.\nPalantir (PLTR) has all seven.\nI know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.\nNo take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.\nPalantir's Scale Economies\nThe quality of declining unit costs as volume increases\nPalantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.\nGotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”\nAcquire\nWhile Palantirisa software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.\nIn Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.\nExpand\nThe second phase, Expand, is characterized byvalue building.Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.\nI know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptorbespoke.\nExpand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.\nScale\nThe word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.\n\n It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.\n\nSource:Palantir S-1\nAnd also:\n\nWe believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a\n contribution margin during the period of 89%.\n\nSource:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine\nFor those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.\nSource:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update\nPalantir's Network effects\nThe product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product\nIn Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,” is listed within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.\n\n At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.\n\n-Source:Palantir’s S-1\nImagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).\nAs Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.\nI believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.\nThe Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended toanypharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.\nThis moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.\nPalantir's Switching Costs\nCustomers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier\nThis is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.\nI believe there is apoint of no returnfor customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.\nI believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.\nPalantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.\nCommodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?\nPalantir'sBranding\nThe durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller\nThe Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.\nMaking this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.\nPalantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.\nThis is the publicly traded company theU.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.\nThe below press releases were announced over the past two monthsalone:\n\nCDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response\nPalantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command\nPalantir and Space Force Expand Partnership\n\nI don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.\nPalantir's Counter-Positioning\nA newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business\nCounter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.\nPalantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.\nFor Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbentwasthe government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.\nDCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.\nSource:Palantir S-1 Filing\nPalantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.\nSimilar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.\nThese same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.\nPalantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.\nI have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.\nPalantir's Cornered Resources\nPreferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value\nPalantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.\n\n As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”\n\n- Peter Thiel, Co-Founder & Chairman, Palantir,Zero to One\nTen times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.\nAlthough it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwisenever existed. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.\nSource:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update\nAnd Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).\nPalantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.\nPalantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.\nAs an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:\n\nComplain about Palantir’s SBC and--\nArgue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent\n\nPalantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.\nPalantir's Process Power\nEmbedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment\nProcess Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.\n\n An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.\n\n-Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update\nTraditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.\nIn addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.\nSource:The Generalist\nPalantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.\nSource: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing\nWhen I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.\nPerhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.\nSaid another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.\nPalantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.\nPalantir Final Thoughts\nI am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.\nOver the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,enduringly valuable. Palantir is building a dynasty.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128539050,"gmtCreate":1624522653970,"gmtModify":1634004908330,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment pls","listText":"Like my comment pls","text":"Like my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128539050","repostId":"2145014410","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120287406,"gmtCreate":1624324887205,"gmtModify":1634007799613,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Seriously&nbsp;","listText":"Seriously&nbsp;","text":"Seriously","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120287406","repostId":"1179311244","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1179311244","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624274237,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1179311244?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-21 19:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed<blockquote>华尔街担心美联储后全球股市下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1179311244","media":"CNN Business","summary":"Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors c","content":"<p>Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>香港（CNN Business）全球股市和加密货币周一回调，投资者继续权衡美联储可能比预期更早加息的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Markets were broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropping more than 3% — easily the worst major performer — after Wall Street closed out its worst week in months on Friday with a 1.6% fall on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).</p><p><blockquote>市场普遍走低，日本日经225指数(N225)下跌超过3%，无疑是表现最差的主要指数，此前华尔街周五结束了数月来最糟糕的一周，道琼斯工业平均指数(INDU)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) dropped 0.8%. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was the regional outlier in Asia, up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生指数(HSI)下跌1.1%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI)下跌0.8%。中国上证综指(SHCOMP)是亚洲地区的异常值，上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The fallout spilled over into Europe, where London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 0.1%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) was up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>影响蔓延到欧洲，伦敦富时100指数(UKX)下跌0.1%。法国CAC 40指数(CAC40)下跌0.2%，德国DAX指数(DAX)上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The declines followed volatility in the United States on Friday, where the Dow's weak close left it 3.5% lower on the week, its worst pullback since late January. The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) lost 1.3% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五美国股市出现波动，道琼斯指数收盘疲软，本周下跌3.5%，为1月底以来最严重回调。标普500(SPX)周五下跌1.3%，纳斯达克综合指数(COMP)下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> US futures were muted early Monday, experiencing little change.</p><p><blockquote>美国期货周一早盘表现平淡，变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street was already having a rough week, but stocks slid even further on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should raise interest rates as soon as the end of next year. That was even more hawkish than the signal the Fed sent out on Wednesday that it may raise rates twice by late 2023.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街已经度过了艰难的一周，但在圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德告诉CNBC，他认为美联储最早应该在明年年底加息后，周五股市进一步下跌。这比美联储周三发出的可能在2023年底前加息两次的信号更加鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is worried about inflation. But investors are also nervous about the Fed taking away the stimulus it is injecting into the market to counter the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街担心通货膨胀。但投资者也对美联储取消向市场注入的刺激措施感到紧张，以应对Covid-19大流行对经济的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The crypto market is also struggling Monday, though it wasn't immediately apparent why. Bitcoin is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading just above $33,000 per coin, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum fell more than 7%, while dogecoin plunged more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币市场周一也陷入困境，但原因尚不清楚。根据CoinDesk的数据，比特币在过去24小时内下跌了6%以上，每枚硬币的交易价格略高于33,000美元。以太币跌超7%，狗狗币暴跌超8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Global stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed<blockquote>华尔街担心美联储后全球股市下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGlobal stocks slide after Wall Street frets about the Fed<blockquote>华尔街担心美联储后全球股市下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">CNN Business</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-21 19:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote>香港（CNN Business）全球股市和加密货币周一回调，投资者继续权衡美联储可能比预期更早加息的信号。</blockquote></p><p> Markets were broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropping more than 3% — easily the worst major performer — after Wall Street closed out its worst week in months on Friday with a 1.6% fall on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).</p><p><blockquote>市场普遍走低，日本日经225指数(N225)下跌超过3%，无疑是表现最差的主要指数，此前华尔街周五结束了数月来最糟糕的一周，道琼斯工业平均指数(INDU)下跌1.6%。</blockquote></p><p> Hong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) dropped 0.8%. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was the regional outlier in Asia, up 0.1%.</p><p><blockquote>香港恒生指数(HSI)下跌1.1%，韩国综合指数(KOSPI)下跌0.8%。中国上证综指(SHCOMP)是亚洲地区的异常值，上涨0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> The fallout spilled over into Europe, where London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 0.1%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) was up 0.2%.</p><p><blockquote>影响蔓延到欧洲，伦敦富时100指数(UKX)下跌0.1%。法国CAC 40指数(CAC40)下跌0.2%，德国DAX指数(DAX)上涨0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> The declines followed volatility in the United States on Friday, where the Dow's weak close left it 3.5% lower on the week, its worst pullback since late January. The S&amp;P 500 (SPX) lost 1.3% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 0.9%.</p><p><blockquote>周五美国股市出现波动，道琼斯指数收盘疲软，本周下跌3.5%，为1月底以来最严重回调。标普500(SPX)周五下跌1.3%，纳斯达克综合指数(COMP)下跌0.9%。</blockquote></p><p> US futures were muted early Monday, experiencing little change.</p><p><blockquote>美国期货周一早盘表现平淡，变化不大。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street was already having a rough week, but stocks slid even further on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should raise interest rates as soon as the end of next year. That was even more hawkish than the signal the Fed sent out on Wednesday that it may raise rates twice by late 2023.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街已经度过了艰难的一周，但在圣路易斯联储主席詹姆斯·布拉德告诉CNBC，他认为美联储最早应该在明年年底加息后，周五股市进一步下跌。这比美联储周三发出的可能在2023年底前加息两次的信号更加鹰派。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street is worried about inflation. But investors are also nervous about the Fed taking away the stimulus it is injecting into the market to counter the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街担心通货膨胀。但投资者也对美联储取消向市场注入的刺激措施感到紧张，以应对Covid-19大流行对经济的影响。</blockquote></p><p> The crypto market is also struggling Monday, though it wasn't immediately apparent why. Bitcoin is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading just above $33,000 per coin, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum fell more than 7%, while dogecoin plunged more than 8%.</p><p><blockquote>加密货币市场周一也陷入困境，但原因尚不清楚。根据CoinDesk的数据，比特币在过去24小时内下跌了6%以上，每枚硬币的交易价格略高于33,000美元。以太币跌超7%，狗狗币暴跌超8%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/global-stocks-fed/index.html\">CNN Business</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://edition.cnn.com/2021/06/21/investing/global-stocks-fed/index.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1179311244","content_text":"Hong Kong (CNN Business)Global stocks and cryptocurrencies are pulling back on Monday as investors continue to weigh signals from the Federal Reserve that it could raise interest rates sooner than expected.\nMarkets were broadly lower, with Japan's Nikkei 225 (N225) dropping more than 3% — easily the worst major performer — after Wall Street closed out its worst week in months on Friday with a 1.6% fall on the Dow Jones Industrial Average (INDU).\nHong Kong's Hang Seng (HSI) fell 1.1% and South Korea's Kospi (KOSPI) dropped 0.8%. China's Shanghai Composite (SHCOMP) was the regional outlier in Asia, up 0.1%.\nThe fallout spilled over into Europe, where London's FTSE 100 (UKX) dropped 0.1%. France's CAC 40 (CAC40) fell 0.2%, while Germany's DAX (DAX) was up 0.2%.\nThe declines followed volatility in the United States on Friday, where the Dow's weak close left it 3.5% lower on the week, its worst pullback since late January. The S&P 500 (SPX) lost 1.3% on Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite (COMP) shed 0.9%.\nUS futures were muted early Monday, experiencing little change.\nWall Street was already having a rough week, but stocks slid even further on Friday after St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard told CNBC that he thinks the Fed should raise interest rates as soon as the end of next year. That was even more hawkish than the signal the Fed sent out on Wednesday that it may raise rates twice by late 2023.\nWall Street is worried about inflation. But investors are also nervous about the Fed taking away the stimulus it is injecting into the market to counter the economic impact of the Covid-19 pandemic.\nThe crypto market is also struggling Monday, though it wasn't immediately apparent why. Bitcoin is down more than 6% in the last 24 hours, trading just above $33,000 per coin, according to CoinDesk. Ethereum fell more than 7%, while dogecoin plunged more than 8%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2753,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":162233166,"gmtCreate":1624064113355,"gmtModify":1634023390507,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes yes yes&nbsp;","listText":"Yes yes yes&nbsp;","text":"Yes yes yes","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162233166","repostId":"2144250776","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166612322,"gmtCreate":1624005826266,"gmtModify":1631885988441,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Going strong","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Going strong","text":"$Workhorse(WKHS)$Going strong","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b1c6a266a9786a4b36cc5fa0c71e5e04","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166612322","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2211,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166616267,"gmtCreate":1624005800259,"gmtModify":1634024229057,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166616267","repostId":"2144005727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166616896,"gmtCreate":1624005790215,"gmtModify":1634024229176,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow really&nbsp;","listText":"Wow really&nbsp;","text":"Wow really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166616896","repostId":"2144005727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1756,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166618458,"gmtCreate":1624005733074,"gmtModify":1631888350369,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Cmon&nbsp;","listText":"Cmon&nbsp;","text":"Cmon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5a08865c64b7df1f092197fcd55895d4","width":"1125","height":"2442"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166618458","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161694037,"gmtCreate":1623921054829,"gmtModify":1631885988479,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Hehehehe","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WKHS\">$Workhorse(WKHS)$</a>Hehehehe","text":"$Workhorse(WKHS)$Hehehehe","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/481454bc5b8c97c02f6a132cf781bc58","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161694037","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3254,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169139669,"gmtCreate":1623820595151,"gmtModify":1634027569692,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Cmon","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PLTR\">$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$</a>Cmon","text":"$Palantir Technologies Inc.(PLTR)$Cmon","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de310297a5c474c5d28a4a6102076e11","width":"1242","height":"1767"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169139669","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":169130410,"gmtCreate":1623820552730,"gmtModify":1634027570393,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Really","listText":"Really","text":"Really","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/169130410","repostId":"1185142374","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185142374","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623811255,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185142374?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 10:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185142374","media":"Barrons","summary":"Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But ","content":"<p>Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计美联储将继续支持经济和金融市场。但央行犯错的余地有限，任何信息传递失误都可能给股市带来高昂的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Markets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while&nbsp;investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储不会对当前的宽松货币政策做出任何突然或剧烈的改变。尽管通胀高于预期，但10年期国债收益率已从一个月前的1.64%降至1.51%。纳斯达克100指数是大型市值和快速增长的科技公司指数，过去一个月上涨了5%以上。当长期债券收益率保持在低位时，成长型股票的估值会显着提升，因为成长型公司预计利润会在特别长期的基础上增长。不过，尽管投资者预计美联储将很快缩减债券购买计划的规模，这将提高债券价格并降低其收益率，但大多数人认为美联储不会立即或大幅这样做。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>Wolfe Research首席投资策略师Chris Senyek写道：“很明显，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将强烈重申他的立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the&nbsp;recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see&nbsp;inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果美联储不明智地选择措辞，它可能会引发科技股大幅下跌。由于纳斯达克100指数徘徊在6月14日创下的历史新高以下，加上10年期国债收益率远低于2021年1.75%的峰值，如果美联储说错了，科技股很容易受到下行冲击。森耶克指出，美联储可能确实比一些人想象的更愿意缩减或缩小债券购买计划的规模。他引用了最近火爆的通货膨胀。可以肯定的是，大多数市场参与者认为通胀是暂时的，这是从去年封锁期间的低价自然同比反弹的结果。即便如此，如果美联储的讲话表明将在年底前开始缩减规模——这是预期的时间——股市可能会大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.</p><p><blockquote>“由于股票和债券目前都‘定价完美’，最轻微的沟通失误都可能引发大幅抛售，”Senyek表示，他引用了Nasdsaq 100指数最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Watch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储是否即将开始缩减规模，或者只是考虑在未来几个季度采取行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe Fed Should Talk About Tapering. Here’s What Could Happen to the Stock Market.<blockquote>美联储应该讨论缩减规模。以下是股市可能发生的情况。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 10:40</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.</p><p><blockquote>投资者预计美联储将继续支持经济和金融市场。但央行犯错的余地有限，任何信息传递失误都可能给股市带来高昂的代价。</blockquote></p><p> Markets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while&nbsp;investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.</p><p><blockquote>市场预计美联储不会对当前的宽松货币政策做出任何突然或剧烈的改变。尽管通胀高于预期，但10年期国债收益率已从一个月前的1.64%降至1.51%。纳斯达克100指数是大型市值和快速增长的科技公司指数，过去一个月上涨了5%以上。当长期债券收益率保持在低位时，成长型股票的估值会显着提升，因为成长型公司预计利润会在特别长期的基础上增长。不过，尽管投资者预计美联储将很快缩减债券购买计划的规模，这将提高债券价格并降低其收益率，但大多数人认为美联储不会立即或大幅这样做。</blockquote></p><p> “It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.</p><p><blockquote>Wolfe Research首席投资策略师Chris Senyek写道：“很明显，市场预计美联储主席鲍威尔将强烈重申他的立场。”</blockquote></p><p> Now, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the&nbsp;recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see&nbsp;inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.</p><p><blockquote>现在，如果美联储不明智地选择措辞，它可能会引发科技股大幅下跌。由于纳斯达克100指数徘徊在6月14日创下的历史新高以下，加上10年期国债收益率远低于2021年1.75%的峰值，如果美联储说错了，科技股很容易受到下行冲击。森耶克指出，美联储可能确实比一些人想象的更愿意缩减或缩小债券购买计划的规模。他引用了最近火爆的通货膨胀。可以肯定的是，大多数市场参与者认为通胀是暂时的，这是从去年封锁期间的低价自然同比反弹的结果。即便如此，如果美联储的讲话表明将在年底前开始缩减规模——这是预期的时间——股市可能会大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.</p><p><blockquote>“由于股票和债券目前都‘定价完美’，最轻微的沟通失误都可能引发大幅抛售，”Senyek表示，他引用了Nasdsaq 100指数最近的上涨。</blockquote></p><p> Watch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming quarters.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储是否即将开始缩减规模，或者只是考虑在未来几个季度采取行动。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-tapering-stock-market-51623777984?mod=RTA\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-tapering-stock-market-51623777984?mod=RTA","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185142374","content_text":"Investors expect the Federal Reserve to remain supportive of the economy and financial markets. But the central bank has limited margin for error, and any miscues on messaging could be costly to the stock market.\nMarkets do not expect the Fed to make any sudden or drastic changes to its current easy-money policy. The 10-year Treasury bond’s yield has fallen to 1.51% from 1.64% a month ago, even as inflation has run hotter than expected. The Nasdaq 100, an index of large capitalization and fast-growing technology companies,is up more than 5% in the past month. Growth stocks see a significant valuation booster when long-dated bond yields remain low, as growth companies expect growing profits on a particularly long-term basis. But while investors expect the Fed to soon reduce the size of its bond-buying program, which would raise bond prices and lower their yields, most don’t think the Fed will do so immediately or drastically.\n“It’s pretty clear that the market expects Fed Chair Powell to strongly reiterate his stances,” writes Chris Senyek, chief investment strategist at Wolfe Research.\nNow, the Fed could stoke a harsh move downwards in tech stocks if it doesn’t choose its words wisely. With the Nasdaq 100 hovering just below a new all-time high set on June 14—accompanied with a 10-year Treasury bond yield that’s well below its 2021 peak of 1.75%—tech stocks are vulnerable to a downward jolt if the Fed misspeaks. Senyek notes that the Fed may indeed be more ready to taper—or reduce the size of its bond-buying program—than some appreciate. He cites the recently hot inflation. To be sure, most market participants see inflation as transitory, a result of a natural year-over-year bounce from low prices during last year’s lockdown. Even so, if the Fed speaks in a way that indicates it will begin tapering before the end of the year—which is the expected timing—stocks could fall sharply.\n“With both stocks and bonds currently ‘priced for perfection,’ the slightest miscommunication could spark a sharp selloff,” says Senyek, who cites the Nasdsaq 100’s recent rise.\nWatch to see if the Fed is about to begin tapering, or is merely considering the move in the coming 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11:55","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120164826","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was publishe","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Zillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nZillow: Significant Downside Remains<blockquote>Zillow：仍存在重大下行空间</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-06 11:55</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Shares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.</li>  <li>However, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.</li>  <li>That is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.</li>  <li>Yet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2b4c631e3e6b24aaf024fb49665ea3\" tg-width=\"768\" tg-height=\"512\"><span>Photo by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>自从我在Seeking Alpha上发表“获利了结”文章以来，Zillow Group的股价已下跌约30%。</li><li>然而，尽管最新的第一季度每股收益报告明显改善，但该股看起来还会进一步下跌。</li><li>这是因为利润率惨淡，第二季度的前瞻性调整EBITDA指引疲弱（低于第一季度），而且流通股数量持续增长。</li><li>然而，该股的预期市盈率仍接近100倍。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摄影：Sundry Photography/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The&nbsp;<b>Zillow Group</b>&nbsp;(ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.</p><p><blockquote>The<b>Zillow集团</b>毫无疑问，（ZG）已经成为排名第一的在线房地产网站和购房消费者的一站式商店。该公司最近转向看涨期权iHome业务（直接从消费者那里购买房屋，然后在公开市场上出售），这是最近收入增长的积极催化剂，该业务与ZG的抵押贷款业务融合得很好。部门以及互联网、媒体和技术部门。然而，尽管最近股价大幅下跌，但在我看来，ZG的估值似乎仍然被严重高估。这是因为利润率——一言以蔽之——可怜。此外，Q2指引疲弱，公司计划今年再增聘2,000名员工。在我看来，这将在今年剩余时间里进一步给利润率带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Rationale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资理由</b></blockquote></p><p> Like many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.</p><p><blockquote>像许多美国人一样，Zillow已经成为我最喜欢的网站之一。我肯定不是唯一一个经常查看Zillow.com以了解我的家以及我过去拥有的家以及我的朋友和家人的家的当前“Zestimate”是多少的人。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Statista的营销份额数据显示，Zillow在每月独立访问量方面排名第一，Zillow集团在2014年收购的Trulia排名第二。总体而言，与曾经与Realtor.com争夺消费者眼球的激烈竞争相比，Zillow集团在房地产网站市场（至少从独立访问量指标来看）的份额是其3倍以上：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/929acb56fa1d566e5f6c3ac0d250c2c2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"553\"><span>Source:Statista</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：斯塔蒂斯塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> But of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:</p><p><blockquote>但当然还有其他指标来判断房地产网站的受欢迎程度和使用情况。以下是来自SimilarWeb.com的最新数据（2021年4月1日）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/836f372f61ccb570286e9ac3e0f3143b\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"366\"><span>Source:SimilarWeb.com</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：SimilarWeb.com</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.</p><p><blockquote>当谈到平均访问持续时间、每次访问浏览的页面和跳出率（只浏览一页然后离开网站的消费者的百分比）时，Zillow和Trulia再次显示出令人印象深刻的对比。也就是说，请注意，上面显示的SimilarWeb评级中肯定有其他指标，因为仅从这些指标来看，人们就可以认为rightmove.co.uk拥有如图所示的最佳统计数据。无论如何，这张图是Zillow/Trulia品牌非常强大并且是市场领导者的另一个指标。</blockquote></p><p> However, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.</p><p><blockquote>然而，眼球是不够的...观点和活动需要转化为利润，而这正是Zillow集团与其相当高的估值相比所苦苦挣扎的地方。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Q1 Earnings</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一季度收益</b></blockquote></p><p> Zillow released its&nbsp;Q1 EPS report&nbsp;on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share&nbsp;beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).</p><p><blockquote>Zillow于5月4日发布了第一季度EPS报告。这是一份强有力的报告。GAAP每股净利润为0.20美元，比预期高出0.13美元。收入为12.2亿美元，超出1.2亿美元，同比增长8%。该公司报告称，其网站和移动应用程序流量强劲，第一季度平均每月用户2.21亿（同比增长15%），访问量达25亿次（同比增长19%）。</blockquote></p><p> The most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.</p><p><blockquote>第一季度最有趣的细分市场是iHome（或ZG评级“Zillow提供的”），因为它约占收入的57%，并且是Zillow指望成为盈利增长引擎的细分市场。</blockquote></p><p> However, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如下图所示，到目前为止，利润率相当小：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/82e5264c5427eb9f8b1987c2182cb39a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"311\"><span>Source: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> As can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?</p><p><blockquote>可以看出，房屋买卖（翻转可能是一个更好的词）的总回报（扣除运营成本和利息支出）不到平均每户收入的4.94%。尽管全国房地产市场普遍被认为非常火爆。此外，请注意，iHome业务对公司未来的增长愿望构成威胁，因为转向iHome几乎损害了公司的首要代理业务。这一转变也可能意味着Zillow的广告收入面临更大压力，这些收入通常来自其iHome部门目前正在抢走房屋的代理商。而这一切的利润率只有4.9%？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Going Forward</b></p><p><blockquote><b>展望未来</b></blockquote></p><p> The chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:</p><p><blockquote>下图是该公司第二季度的指引：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d976a71e1e72bb8f0c6ac3306aa4f100\" tg-width=\"628\" tg-height=\"337\"><span>Source: Zillow's Q1 EPS report</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Zillow第一季度每股收益报告</span></p></blockquote></p><p> At the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that&nbsp;<b>will be down considerably</b>&nbsp;from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.</p><p><blockquote>在指导调整后EBITDA总额（1.28亿美元）的中点，请注意<b>将大幅下降</b>第一季度调整后EBITDA总额为1.81亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the&nbsp;SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).</p><p><blockquote>此外，请注意，第一季度末的加权平均股数（未包含在第一季度每股收益报告中，但可以在SEC 10-Q文件中找到）为259,346,000股（同比增长23%）。预计到第二季度末，该股数量将继续增长至约2.655亿股（基于上述指导）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> So we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我们的利润率疲软，调整后的EBITDA下降，而完全稀释的股票数量大幅增加。嗯嗯。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March&nbsp;<i>Zillow: Take Profits</i>), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The&nbsp;Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管该股最近有所调整（请注意，自我3月份的Seeking Alpha文章以来，该股已下跌约30%<i>Zillow：获利了结</i>），考虑到刚刚提出的第一季度和第二季度指引的分析，该股的估值仍然很高。寻求阿尔法远期市盈率=97.7倍。</blockquote></p><p> That is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering&nbsp;<b>Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year</b>, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到疲软的第二季度指引，就Zillow的增长前景（或非增长……）而言，这显然是一个丰富的比较。此外，我不清楚改善公司未来微薄利润率的催化剂是什么。考虑到这一点尤其如此<b>Zillow计划今年再增聘2000名员工</b>，员工人数增加约40%。在我看来，在提高利润率方面，员工人数的增长将是一个重大阻力。也就是说，Zillow在试图扩大业务规模时无法证明利润率不断增加。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，转向iHome也意味着ZG现在面临更多的宏观层面风险，因为它将越来越依赖于房地产市场的起伏（现在……）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> The risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今天购买Zillow Group的风险是定价接近完美的估值水平。我说“接近完美”是因为当我写关于ZG的“获利了结”文章时，它的定价已经达到了完美，而且自从那篇文章发表以来，它已经下跌了30%，现在我将简单地看涨期权ZG一个“丰富的估值”命题。</blockquote></p><p> The goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.</p><p><blockquote>好消息是，Zillow的资产负债表相对强劲：在本季度完成了5.51亿美元的股票发行后，该公司在本季度末拥有47亿美元现金（高于2020年底的39亿美元）。</blockquote></p><p> That compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，债务为22.59亿美元，较年底略有下降。因此，根据第一季度末已发行的2.655亿股稀释后股票，该公司估计每股净现金为9.19美元。Zillow可能需要保留相当数量的现金，以抵消其因直接投资房地产市场而面临的较高风险。这是因为历史告诉我们，美国房地产市场可能会随时发生变化，并可能导致ZG持有相当大的房屋库存。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Summary &amp; Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结和结论</b></blockquote></p><p> While Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Zillow的第一季度报告确实比环比有了很大改善，但该公司自己的第二季度指引似乎更能说明我在上一篇关于该公司的文章中提出的论点。也就是说，与其表现出的增长指标相比，该股的估值似乎根本不正常。尽管房地产市场火热且高度升值，但第二季度调整后EBITDA仍连续下降...嗯，我只是无法理解目前的估值水平。因此，我维持上一篇文章中的观点：在ZG达到约50美元/股的水平之前，我不会对其感兴趣。</blockquote></p><p> I will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.</p><p><blockquote>我将以ZG的五年价格图表结束，并指出我的50美元目标大致是该股在大流行之前的水平。当然，自那时以来的每股收益报告问题并不能证明股价快速大幅上涨至200美元是合理的……或者，甚至是目前110美元的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f243f9f555525da2dcb1589d18cd30f\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"403\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"Z":"Zillow"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4433217-zillow-significant-downside-remains","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120164826","content_text":"Summary\n\nShares of Zillow Group have come down some 30% since my \"Take Profits\" article was published on Seeking Alpha.\nHowever, and despite a definite improvement in the latest Q1 EPS report, the stock looks to have a further downside to come.\nThat is because margins are dismal, forward adjusted EBITDA guidance for Q2 was weak (lower than Q1), and the outstanding share count continues to grow.\nYet, the stock still trades with a forward P/E of nearly 100x.\n\nPhoto by Sundry Photography/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe Zillow Group (ZG) has, without a doubt, established itself as the #1 online real estate website and as one-stop shop for home-buying consumers. The company's recent pivot to what I'll call the iHome business (purchasing homes directly from consumers and then selling them on the open market) has been a positive catalyst of late in terms of revenue growth, and that business blends well with ZG's Mortgage Segment and Internet, Media, and Technology Segment. However, despite the recent and significant drop in the price of the shares, ZG still seem substantially overvalued in my opinion. That is because margins are - in a word - pathetic. In addition, Q2 guidance was weak and the company plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year. In my opinion, that will pressure margins even further through the remainder of the year.\nInvestment Rationale\nLike many Americans, Zillow has become one of my favorite websites. I am surely not alone when it comes to frequently checking Zillow.com to see what the current \"Zestimate\" is for my home as well as for the homes I have owned in the past, and those of my friends and family.\nIndeed, marketing share data from Statista shows that Zillow is #1 in unique monthly visits, and Trulia - which the Zillow Group bought in 2014 - is #2. In aggregate that gives the Zillow group a stranglehold on the real estate website market (at least by the unique visits metric) at more than 3x the share as compared to what was once a highly competitive race with Realtor.com for consumers' eye-balls:\nSource:Statista\nBut of course there are other metrics to judge the popularity and use of real estate websites. Here is more recent data (April 1, 2021) from SimilarWeb.com:\nSource:SimilarWeb.com\nWhen it comes to average visit duration, pages viewed per visit, and bounce rate (the % of consumers that only view one-page then leave the site), Zillow and Trulia again show impressive comps. That said, note there must be other metrics that figure into the SimilarWeb ratings shown above because - from these metrics alone - one could argue rightmove.co.uk has the best stats as shown. Regardless, this graphic is another indicator that the Zillow/Trulia brand is very strong and the market leader.\nHowever, eye-balls aren't enough ... the views and activity need to be converted into profits, and that is where the Zillow Group is struggling in comparison to its rather lofty valuation.\nQ1 Earnings\nZillow released its Q1 EPS report on May 4th. It was a strong report. GAAP net-income of $0.20/share beat estimates by a whopping $0.13. Revenue of $1.22 billion was a $120 million beat and was up 8% yoy. The company reported strong traffic on its website and mobile apps, with 221 million average monthly users (up 15% yoy) driving 2.5 billion visits during Q1 (up 19% yoy).\nThe most interesting segment in Q1 was the iHome (or what ZG calls \"Zillow Offers\") because it accounted for ~57% of revenue and is the segment Zillow is counting on to be is profitable growth engine.\nHowever, as can be seen in the graphic below, the margins are - so far - quite puny:\nSource: Zillow'sQ1 EPS report\nAs can be seen, the all-in return (after operating costs and interest expense) on the home buying/selling (flipping might be a better word) is a scant 4.94% of the average per-home revenue. That is despite what is generally considered to be a very hot-market real estate market across the nation. In addition, note the iHome business is a threat to the company's future growth aspirations because the pivot to iHome has pretty much cratered the company's Premier Agent business. The pivot also likely means more pressure on Zillow's advertising revenue which generally comes from the agents its iHome segment is now stealing away homes from. And all that for only 4.9% margins?\nGoing Forward\nThe chart below is the company's guidance for Q2:\nSource: Zillow's Q1 EPS report\nAt the midpoint of guidance total adjusted EBITDA ($128 million), note that will be down considerably from the $181 million in total adjusted EBITDA delivered in Q1.\nIn addition, note the weighted average share-count at the end of Q1 (it was not included in the Q1 EPS report, but can be found in the SEC 10-Q filing) was 259,346,000 shares (up a whopping 23% yoy). And that share-count is expected to continue growing to an estimated 265.5 million shares at the end of Q2 (based on the guidance shown above).\nValuation\nSo we have weak margins, falling adjusted EBITDA and a significantly rising number of fully diluted shares. Hmmmm.\nYet, despite the recent correction in the stock (note the stock is down ~30% since my Seeking Alpha article in March Zillow: Take Profits), the stock is still trading at a lofty valuation given the analysis of Q1 and Q2 guidance just presented. The Seeking Alpha forward P/E=97.7x.\nThat is obviously a rich comparison in terms of Zillow's growth prospects (or non-growth...) considering the weak Q2 guidance. In addition, it is not clear to me what the catalyst will be to improve the company's awfully small margins going forward. That is especially the case considering Zillow plans to hire an additional 2,000 employees this year, increasing its headcount by some 40%. In my opinion, this headcount growth will be a significant headwind when it comes to increasing margins. That is, Zillow is not able to demonstrate increasing margins as it tries to scale-up its operations.\nMeantime, the pivot to iHome also means that ZG now has significantly more macro-level risks as it will be increasingly dependent on the ups (now..) and downs (coming...) of the housing market.\nRisks\nThe risk of buying Zillow Group today is - in my opinion, a priced-to-near-perfection valuation level. I say \"near perfection\" because it was priced to perfection when I wrote my \"Take Profits\" article on ZG, and since it is down 30% since that piece was published, now I will simply call ZG a \"rich valuation\" proposition.\nThe goods news is that Zillow has a relatively strong balance sheet: it ended the quarter with $4.7 billion in cash (up from $3.9 billion at the end of 2020) after completing a $551 million stock offering during the quarter.\nThat compares to $2.259 billion in debt, which was down slightly from year-end. As a result, the company has an estimated $9.19/share in net cash based on the 265.5 million diluted shares outstanding at the end of Q1. And Zillow will likely need to keep a fair amount of cash in order to offset its higher risk profile due to direct exposure to the housing market. That is because history shows us the US housing market can change on-a-dime and could catch ZG holding a rather large inventory of homes.\nSummary & Conclusion\nWhile Zillow's Q1 report was certainly much improved on a sequential basis, the company's own Q2 guidance seems to be more indicative of the thesis I presented in my last article on the company. That is, the stock's valuation simply appears to be substantially out-of-whack in comparison to its demonstrated growth metrics. More shares, falling sequential adjusted EBITDA in Q2 despite a hot and highly appreciating housing market and ... well, I just cannot understand the current valuation level. As a result, I maintain the opinion from my previous article: I wouldn't be interested in ZG until it reached the ~$50/share level.\nI will end with a five-year price chart of ZG and note that my $50 target is roughly where the stock was prior to the pandemic. Certainly the EPS reports issues since that time do not justify the rapid and substantial increase in the shares to $200 ... or, even the current $110 level.\nData byYCharts","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"Z":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159846714,"gmtCreate":1624958222638,"gmtModify":1633946528110,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hehe","listText":"Hehe","text":"Hehe","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159846714","repostId":"1115559324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115559324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624952930,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115559324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-29 15:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115559324","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nMoats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate stayin","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Moats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.</li>  <li>There are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.</li>  <li>These moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0361567f2939770c4946a5568ce8dc7e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1033\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>护城河是企业为保护利润和产生持久力而建立的竞争优势。</li><li>护城河有七种类型，伟大的公司通常有两到三种。Palantir拥有全部七个。</li><li>这些护城河将使Palantir能够建立具有持久影响力和盈利能力的业务。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻简介：论建立王朝</b></blockquote></p><p> In the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.</p><p><blockquote>16世纪中叶，日本陷入了全面内战。</blockquote></p><p> Oda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.</p><p><blockquote>织田信长，一个被认为是“伟大的统一者”（或战场上的“魔王”）的武士，正在成为全日本最强大的武士军阀。他的名字已经成为军事才华的代名词，他有能力推翻更强大的对手。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有强大的力量，但佛教中的一个派别——一心一意的一辉（联盟）——开始巩固权力，建造堡垒，积累越来越多的武僧。Ikko一辉最终在今天大阪的石山本愿寺（石山）建立了自己的堡垒。</blockquote></p><p> By the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.</p><p><blockquote>到了16世纪60年代，信长已经击败了日本所有反对的武士军阀，只有一晃一辉阻止了信长用他的霸权覆盖日本。</blockquote></p><p> And so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.</p><p><blockquote>因此，1570年，信长带着30,000名士兵出发前往石山本愿寺，其中许多人接受过早期版本的火绳枪的训练。信长本人手持日本最著名的剑——“道吉里安纲”。传说道吉里安纲被用来杀死当时最可怕的恶魔——酒吞道吉。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有大量武器，但他对石山本愿寺要塞的进攻并没有成功。他的部队围攻石山十年，他被击退了十年。事实上，1580年一光一号最终投降时，是应朝廷的要求，而不是要塞被攻破。</blockquote></p><p> So how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?</p><p><blockquote>那么一晃一辉是如何抵挡住中世纪日本最可怕的幕府将军的呢？</blockquote></p><p> A moat, of course.</p><p><blockquote>当然是护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Flowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.</p><p><blockquote>环绕石山大教堂要塞的是一条错综复杂的护城河，上面是毫无特色的城墙。由于有了护城河，这些城墙不能被攻城塔或隧道攻击。它们不能被攀爬或跨越。它无懈可击。</blockquote></p><p> In reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.</p><p><blockquote>关于这种可以防御攻击者10年或更长时间的中世纪结构，“护城河”一词从此成为衡量企业寿命的常用指标。我欣赏历史有意义的时候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s Seven Moats</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的七大护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”</i>  -Peter Thiel, Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir</p><p><blockquote><i>增长很容易衡量，但持久性却不容易。如果你把短期增长看得比什么都重要，你就错过了你应该问的最重要的问题：十年后，这项业务还会存在吗？光靠数字是不会告诉你答案的；相反，你必须批判性地思考你的业务的质量特征。”</i>—Peter Thiel，Palantir创始人兼董事长</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.</p><p><blockquote>在《7种权力》一书中，汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)写道，企业可以用来指导价值创造工作的七条护城河。赫尔默认为，通过将卓越运营与深思熟虑的护城河建设相结合，企业或许能够使自己具有持久的价值。这七种力量是：规模经济、网络效应、反向定位、转换成本、品牌、垄断资源和流程力量。</blockquote></p><p> Helmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.</p><p><blockquote>赫尔默概述了以现代企业为代表的这些护城河的案例研究。Pixar拥有智囊团（被垄断的资源），Nike（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）可以为一双鞋收取比竞争对手（品牌）更高的费用，而Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）的内容制作成本随着订户的增加而降低（规模经济）。世界上最具标志性的公司有两条，也许三条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has all seven.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)拥有全部七项。</blockquote></p><p> I know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.</p><p><blockquote>我知道这听起来很疯狂，因为Palantir九个月前上市，是的，它仍然没有盈利。是的，基于股票的薪酬是丰厚的。是的，收入集中，是的，估值乐观。对所有这些都是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> No take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.</p><p><blockquote>没有收回。Palantir有七条护城河。让我给你看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's Scale Economies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的规模经济</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The quality of declining unit costs as volume increases</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着数量的增加，单位成本下降的质量</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的销售周期可能是其商业模式中最被误解的方面。反对者认为Palantir是一家服务公司。以每股35美元的价格买入的购物者认为Palantir是一家SaaS公司。他们都是对的。</blockquote></p><p> Gotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”</p><p><blockquote>Gotham和Foundry为政府和商业客户提供高利润的经常性软件合同。与此同时，Palantir引进技术顾问来扩大和成熟这些合同。Palantir将这个销售周期描述为“收购、扩张和规模化”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Acquire</b></p><p><blockquote><b>获得</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Palantir<i>is</i>a software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.</p><p><blockquote>而Palantir<i>是</i>作为一家软件公司，它与其他分享这个标签的公司截然不同。例如，向企业销售Zoom（ZM）这样的软件和销售Foundry之间存在一些差异。截至2021年第一季度，Palantir报告每位客户的年收入为810万美元。这种惊人的产品收入掩盖了Palantir产品的价值，但也凸显了其销售周期的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，Acquire客户被描述为那些享受Palantir技术短期试点部署的客户。Palantir亏本运营这些账户，并指出这一销售阶段通常平均持续6-9个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> The second phase, Expand, is characterized by<i>value building.</i>Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.</p><p><blockquote>第二阶段，扩展，其特征是<i>价值建设。</i>Palantir专注于了解客户的挑战并应对这些挑战。这些客户向Palantir提供较大收入合同，但通常也代表负贡献利润率。</blockquote></p><p> I know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptor<i>bespoke.</i></p><p><blockquote>我知道，连续两个阶段的无利可图的产品交付。然而，这一阶段的特点是Palantir的个性化价值创造几乎呈病毒式扩张，这得益于收购阶段6-9个月的数据摄取和客户反馈。正是在这个阶段，Palantir的产品开始配得上这个描述<i>定制的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Expand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.</p><p><blockquote>Expand是由首席执行官Alex Karp本人推动的，在大流行之前，他每年有250天亲自拜访客户。这也许是卡普最不可磨灭的贡献；这位首席执行官为一家从未有过销售人员的公司担任销售人员。Palantir的客户是鲸鱼。卡普是亚哈船长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比例</b></blockquote></p><p> The word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.</p><p><blockquote>“规模”一词在Palantir S-1中被使用了整整44次，Palantir将规模客户定义为那些贡献具有正边际的成熟合同的客户。在规模化过程中，我们见证了Palantir单位经济效益的逆转。随着客户账户的成熟，Palantir的投资成本会降低。客户现在可以独立操作，在Foundry或Gotham之上构建自己的应用程序。这会带来新的用例、更少的服务费以及更大比例的高利润经常性收入。</blockquote></p><p>   It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.  Source:Palantir S-1</p><p><blockquote>正是在我们与客户合作的规模阶段，我们通常会看到特定账户的贡献率有所提高。2019年，我们在规模阶段从客户那里获得了5.657亿美元的收入，贡献率为55%。2020年上半年，这些客户创造了2.963亿美元的收入，贡献率为68%。资料来源：Palantir S-1</blockquote></p><p> And also:</p><p><blockquote>还有：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.</b>We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a  <b>contribution margin during the period of 89%.</b>  Source:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine</p><p><blockquote><b>我们相信，从长远来看，我们所有的客户都将进入规模化阶段。</b>我们还相信，随着我们在整个客户运营中部署我们的软件平台以及管理和运营我们的软件方面变得更加高效，规模阶段账户的边际贡献将进一步增加……2020年上半年，前25%的客户截至2019年底，规模阶段的边际贡献为<b>期内供款率为89%。</b>资料来源：Palantir S-1，重点矿</blockquote></p><p> For those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:<b>Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.</b>As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些因Palantir无法盈利而苦恼的人，请注意：<b>Palantir刚刚开始利用这条护城河来推动接近90%的天文数字贡献率。</b>随着Palantir将更多客户从扩张转向规模化，利润率将会提高，成本将会降低，收入集中度将会多元化。随着Palantir优化并在某些情况下自动化软件部署，我预计获取和扩展周期会缩短，从而使飞轮旋转得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604faf2a51bd7d6e60abbc5d89663571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着更多客户使用产品，产品变得更有价值</i></blockquote></p><p> In Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,”&nbsp;is listed&nbsp;within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，“产生网络效应”列在第一原则部分。他们接着描述了随着越来越多的员工使用Palantir的软件如何对客户变得更有价值。</blockquote></p><p>   At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.  -Source:Palantir’s S-1</p><p><blockquote>在一家金融服务客户中，network effects使我们的平台能够从单个用例扩展到跨合规、前台、风险和内部审计部门的70多个工作流。-资料来源：Palantir的S-1</blockquote></p><p> Imagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你是奥克兰银行的一名穿着毛衣背心的软件工程师，刚刚同意进行代工试点。当您啜饮燕麦牛奶拿铁时，您开始点击Foundry信息仪表板，慢慢地探索和试验Foundry平台。你意识到你可以在注入人工智能的应用程序上运行数据分析，并开始识别效率低下的地方，这些地方与你的团队和主管分享（让你看起来很聪明）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>随着Foundry用于识别优化目标，开发人员开始在Foundry之上构建他们自己的应用层，它识别新的用例和新的应用，并添加新的层。Palantir的网络效应表现为数字歌剧蛋糕；随着效用产生效用，不可磨灭的用例堆栈越来越高。这是Palantir的第二条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.</p><p><blockquote>我相信也有特定行业的网络效应在起作用。与Palantir当前客户空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)相比，波音公司(NYSE：BA)的Palantir软件部署有多大不同？我敢打赌，不多。</blockquote></p><p> The Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended to<i>any</i>pharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>生命科学领域是另一个例子，Palantir将其确定为未来的主要增长领域。Palantir透露，一家排名前5的制药公司正在使用Foundry来整合数千项临床试验的基因分型和实验室数据。这种经验可以推广到<i>任何</i>制药公司，Palantir与该客户的合作使我们能够预见此类公司将从中受益的无数用例。这里的远见不是无形的；对于与Palantir签署协议的每一个额外的特定行业客户来说，它可以以更低的成本加速产品扩展。</blockquote></p><p> This moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir最大的客户不断扩张并续签更大的合同，这条护城河在数字上得到了证实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Switching</b>&nbsp;<b>Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>切换</b> <b>成本</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Customers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier</i></p><p><blockquote><i>如果客户转向不同的产品供应商，他们将遭受价值损失</i></blockquote></p><p> This is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是Palantir最容易强调的护城河。如果您对机器学习有基本的了解，您可能会直觉到像Palantir这样的数据分析公司会有很高的转换成本。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there is a<i>point of no return</i>for customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.</p><p><blockquote>我相信有个<i>不归路</i>对于处于销售周期扩展阶段的客户。在这一点上，代工用例正在成倍增加，效率正在实现，软件正在变得越来越少的服务，而更多的是企业的中央操作系统。在给定的组织中，Palantir会整理数PB的数据并将其提炼为可操作的流程，Foundry每天都会更好地了解组织的需求。请记住，这可能是客户关系的18个月，Foundry已成为公司工作流程中的日常分析工具。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这是不归路，因为这里的替代方案是不可想象的。首先，这个替代软件提供商是谁？布勒？即使有类似于Foundry的服务，但没有，你也要从头再来。企业希望加速，不，奔向数字化、人工智能驱动的未来。尝试向高级管理层解释，我们必须在18个月内停止代工业务，因为价格太高。您必须回到第0天进行数据收集、分析和提炼。这将是最大规模的努力、时间和费用的重复。在Expand的某个地方，你陷得太深了——如果你关灯，冰淇淋就会融化。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir最大的合同是Palantir最长的客户。这不是巧合。这是Palantir的第三条护城河。随着客户成为Palantir产品的深度用户，转换成本只会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Commodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>商品软件服务永远不会享有Palantir所拥有的战略优势。如果你的公司从Skype转向Zoom，这真的有那么大的问题吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir'sBranding</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的品牌</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller</i></p><p><blockquote><i>从卖方的历史信息中产生的客观上相同的产品的更高价值的持久属性</i></blockquote></p><p> The Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.</p><p><blockquote>在可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）等基本消费品的背景下，品牌护城河更容易理解。例如，我可能会花双倍的钱买一杯可口可乐。</blockquote></p><p> Making this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.</p><p><blockquote>在数据分析软件中进行这种比较是一个挑战，因为我不相信Palantir有相同的产品。然而，假设一下，让我们假设这样一家公司存在。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir自2003年成立以来已打造了一个标志性品牌。起诉美国，过去18年来，Palantir一直由中央情报局资助，与识别和击毙奥萨马·本·拉登有关。军队和胜利，并精心策划了一个阴谋和表面上超自然的分析能力的叙事。但这种公司形象并不是我在这里要强调的品牌护城河。</blockquote></p><p> This is the publicly traded company the<i>U.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program</i>. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家上市公司<i>美国政府雇佣员工来管理他们的核计划</i>.这是NHS雇佣的公司，在我们这个时代最大的公共卫生危机期间管理个人防护设备库存和疫苗推广。在过去的二十年里，Palantir拥有在我国面临的最极端情况下度过难关的记录。我认为，对于美国政府来说，没有哪家软件公司比Palantir更能体现可靠性和安全性。这是一个经久不衰的品牌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The below press releases were announced over the past two months<i>alone</i>:</p><p><blockquote>以下是过去两个月发布的新闻稿<i>单独的</i>：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response</li>  <li>Palantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command</li>  <li>Palantir and Space Force Expand Partnership</li> </ul> I don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CDC与Palantir续签疾病监测和疫情应对合作伙伴关系</li><li>Palantir获得价值1.11亿美元的合同，为美国特种作战司令部提供任务指挥平台</li><li>Palantir与太空军扩大合作伙伴关系</li></ul>我不在乎你对Palantir的估值有多悲观。没有一家软件公司拥有Palantir在美国政府及其海外盟友中所拥有的品牌价值。随着Palantir扩展到商业领域，客户越来越关注网络安全和数据保真度……哪个竞争对手能指出Palantir的简历？当误差幅度必须为零，并且您正在展望一个不会失败的场景时，请押注Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Counter-Positioning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>反向定位</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>A newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business</i></p><p><blockquote><i>新进入者采用了一种新的、优越的商业模式，而在位者由于预期对其现有业务造成损害而不会模仿这种模式</i></blockquote></p><p> Counter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the&nbsp;digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.</p><p><blockquote>反向定位是一条独特的护城河，我认为数字钱包领域的Square(SQ)最能代表这一点。现有银行的行动完全是为了对抗Square的举措，部分原因是监管，部分原因是竞争被低估，但主要是因为提供数字钱包解决方案可能会蚕食银行的核心产品。这就是反定位护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的反向定位护城河可能不太明显。首先，谁是现任者？Palantir的技术极具颠覆性，因此很难理解天然竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> For Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbent<i>was</i>the government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.</p><p><blockquote>对于哥谭市（政府）来说，现任<i>什么</i>政府；美国。陆军、国防部、中央情报局等。让我们把时钟拨回到2015年。美国。陆军发布了一份招标书，寻求建造分布式通用地面系统-陆军（DCGS-A）。这将是一个集成的数据分析框架，可以从众多来源收集数据，跨一套分析工具无缝共享数据，并为战场上的士兵提供易于使用的可视化。听起来很熟悉？对我来说，这听起来就像Palantir的Gotham产品。</blockquote></p><p> DCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>DCGS-A实际上是一个酝酿了十多年的陆军内部项目，开发成本为30亿美元。Palantir以低得多的成本参与了竞标，但陆军选择继续自己的内部开发。Palantir最终对陆军提起诉讼，辩称哥谭市提供了陆军试图建设的确切服务，而且成本只是陆军试图建设的一小部分。2016年10月，一名联邦法官做出了有利于Palantir（2377）的裁决，并开创了政府必须在最大实际范围内采购商业服务和产品的先例。陆军对此提出上诉，但后来于2018年在美国上诉法院维持原判。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70fc6c13c9c0d3ca0b559fd48bdff1da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Palantir S-1 Filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir S-1文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir针对陆军的里程碑式诉讼出人意料地加深了与美国政府的关系。诉讼发生后的一年，Palantir的陆军收入相当于前11年的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.</p><p><blockquote>与现有银行类似，规模也会产生官僚主义和惰性。尽管美国政府拥有巨大的影响力和权力，但它要么选择在数据分析方面投资不足，行动过于缓慢，要么低估了私营部门的创新步伐。可能每种都有一些。</blockquote></p><p> These same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.</p><p><blockquote>这些同样的竞争问题也出现在私营部门。甲骨文(ORCL)和SAP(SAP)等大型企业软件巨头在过去十年里一直在为“足够好”的产品建立销售团队。与此同时，Palantir在没有知名销售人员的情况下一直在痴迷地扩大和完善他们的产品（稍后将详细介绍）。Palantir在过去18年里的全部重点是设计伟大的产品，而现有企业现在刚刚感受到企业软件文化转变的深刻、几乎是全球性的呻吟，以及错失机会的哀叹。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在通过投资数据分析领域几家年轻、颠覆性的公司来深化其反定位护城河。在我之前的Palantir文章中，Palantir的SPAC：你看到卡普所看到的了吗？，我将Palantir对这些公司的投资概述为扩大市场覆盖范围和建立有价值的投资组合的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.</p><p><blockquote>从那以后，我在这个分析中又增加了一层。这些投资公司不仅扩大了Palantir的市场影响力，而且还是Palantir产品的灯塔，是可能表明velocity Foundry对产品路线图和上市步伐做出贡献的使者。通过与这些公司合作，Palantir巩固了其技术领先地位，并展示了对其声誉所依据的创新产品DNA的承诺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Cornered Resources</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>被垄断的资源</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Preferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value</i></p><p><blockquote><i>以有吸引力的条款优先获得可以独立增值的令人垂涎的资产</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有两种资源，使其相对于竞争对手具有显着优势：技术和人才。我将从泰尔对技术优势的定义开始。这是雄心勃勃的，但Palantir清除了这个障碍。</blockquote></p><p>   As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”  - Peter Thiel, Co-Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir,<i>Zero to One</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一个很好的经验法则，专有技术必须在某些重要方面比最接近的替代品至少好10倍，才能带来真正的垄断优势。”-Peter Thiel，Palantir联合创始人兼董事长，<i>零比一</i></blockquote></p><p> Ten times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.</p><p><blockquote>好了十倍。当提供的产品比替代产品好10倍时，惊人的事情就会发生。SpaceX（太空）火箭的效率比NASA高10倍，在Bumble（BMBL）结识下一个男朋友比在当地酒吧容易10倍，在Netflix（NFLX）上观看《指环王》比开车去百思买（BBY）买一套DVD容易10倍。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwise<i>never existed</i>. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.</p><p><blockquote>尽管还处于早期阶段，但Palantir的软件在几个方面似乎已经比竞争对手好10倍。例如，在2021年第一季度，Gotham被用来使国防部所有11个作战司令部能够从情报、作战、后勤和供应数据中产生综合战略决策优势。这种能力否则<i>从未存在过</i>.Palantir的软件非常先进，它不断发明新的用例，这证明了这些产品所代表的对数改进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03bd98e9e9f53009b19523de56ceb5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续在创新方面超越竞争对手。在Palantir的2020年第四季度收益演示中，他们提供了国防部影响6级(IL-6)状态轨迹的最新信息。他们是世界上仅有的四家IL-5公司（关键任务信息国家安全系统）之一，目标是IL-6，这将使他们成为机密国家安全系统的第一个SaaS。作为参照系，IL-2公司包括数据分析巨头Snowflake(SNOW)和Google(GOOG)。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的数据更好，因为Palantir的数据质量更好。在分析中，我们非常重视数据量，因此数据质量更加重要。十多年来，哥谭市一直在泥地、太空和海底嗡嗡作响，被最严酷和最苛刻的场景所告知。哥谭是经过战斗考验的企业软件。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的第二个陷入困境的资源是人才。据报道，卡普对顶尖工程人才的嗅觉和吸引能力导致了一份几乎无法效仿的名人录。</blockquote></p><p> As an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:</p><p><blockquote>作为一名投资者，我可以接受Palantir空头涂鸦他们的稀释现金流模型以及基于股票的薪酬如何影响它。但这些熊不能同日而语：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Complain about Palantir’s SBC and--</li>  <li>Argue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent</li> </ol> Palantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>抱怨Palantir的SBC和--</li><li>认为Palantir没有工程人才护城河</li></ol>Palantir正在通过SBC和改变世界的机会激励工程和产品人才。如果一支NFL球队没有工资帽，每个位置都将由联盟中的顶级球员填补。这就是卡普所做的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Process Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>过程功率</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Embedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment</i></p><p><blockquote><i>嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品，并且只能通过扩展承诺来匹配</i></blockquote></p><p> Process Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.</p><p><blockquote>流程能力是Palantir的第七条也是最后一条护城河。最明显的例子是产品部署速度和Palantir产品的综合性。</blockquote></p><p>   An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.  -Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update</p><p><blockquote>一家能源巨头在几个小时内部署了我们的ERP套件。在两周内，他们节省了5700万美元的现金，预计年化将节省10亿美元。-Palantir 2020年第三季度业务更新</blockquote></p><p> Traditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手提供的传统高接触软件解决方案以路线图的方式交付，最终产品交付有时需要几个月甚至几年的时间。Palantir的软件可以在数小时内部署并实现效益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.</p><p><blockquote>此外，没有竞争对手拥有Palantir所提供的全面数据分析产品。这意味着不使用Palantir的客户要承担数十家独立公司的许可费，这些公司的软件通常无法相互通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1a1a03982b19a3b4181802ebb450f6\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"758\"><span>Source:The Generalist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通才</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir已经构建了完整的数据分析应用程序堆栈，并将根据客户的需要继续这样做。由此产生的产品如此引人注目且交付速度如此之快，以至于Palantir没有任何直接竞争对手。在上图中，概述了Palantir的19种产品应用，并提供了简要描述以及哪些竞争对手提供了类似的产品。请注意，下一个最全面的产品来自Tableau，只有四种产品与Palantir重叠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033d44206281f6449c0178f2f5943681\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"><span>Source: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Me，在Palantir S-1文件的帮助下</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.</p><p><blockquote>当我最初开始撰写有关Palantir流程能力的笔记时，产品部署速度及其全面性等功能立即显而易见。然而，我对Palantir的商业模式思考得越多，我就越开始看到第二条护城河，一条更宽、更深的护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.</p><p><blockquote>也许Palantir最大的战略优势是其产品为客户提供了流程能力护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Said another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，Foundry和Gotham允许客户建立自己的工艺能力护城河。如果您是一家使用Palantir的财富100强公司，随着您的供应链实现共振、低效率被削减以及产品路线图斜率垂直，您对竞争对手的领先优势将会扩大。Palantir的软件允许客户查看以其命名的非常引人注目的石头。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir认识到了这条护城河，这就是他们积极投资早期数据公司的原因——因此他们可能会在Palantir护城河保护的快速增长的业务中分得一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.</p><p><blockquote>我着迷于用王朝的持久力建立堡垒般的企业的概念。只有少数公司能够拥有Palantir的七种力量，而且在数据分析领域还没有一家公司。Palantir的规模经济、网络效应、品牌、反向定位、垄断资源和流程能力为其自身、投资者和客户创造巨大价值奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Over the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,<i>enduringly valuable</i>. Palantir is building a dynasty.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几十年里，这些护城河将汇集并相互作用，推动一个常青的飞轮，使Palantir能够创建一项业务，用Helmer的话说，<i>持久有价值</i>.Palantir正在建立一个王朝。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: On Building A Dynasty<blockquote>Palantir：建立王朝</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-29 15:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Moats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.</li>  <li>There are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.</li>  <li>These moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0361567f2939770c4946a5568ce8dc7e\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1033\"><span>Scott Olson/Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>护城河是企业为保护利润和产生持久力而建立的竞争优势。</li><li>护城河有七种类型，伟大的公司通常有两到三种。Palantir拥有全部七个。</li><li>这些护城河将使Palantir能够建立具有持久影响力和盈利能力的业务。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·奥尔森/盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>NewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新闻简介：论建立王朝</b></blockquote></p><p> In the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.</p><p><blockquote>16世纪中叶，日本陷入了全面内战。</blockquote></p><p> Oda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.</p><p><blockquote>织田信长，一个被认为是“伟大的统一者”（或战场上的“魔王”）的武士，正在成为全日本最强大的武士军阀。他的名字已经成为军事才华的代名词，他有能力推翻更强大的对手。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有强大的力量，但佛教中的一个派别——一心一意的一辉（联盟）——开始巩固权力，建造堡垒，积累越来越多的武僧。Ikko一辉最终在今天大阪的石山本愿寺（石山）建立了自己的堡垒。</blockquote></p><p> By the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.</p><p><blockquote>到了16世纪60年代，信长已经击败了日本所有反对的武士军阀，只有一晃一辉阻止了信长用他的霸权覆盖日本。</blockquote></p><p> And so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.</p><p><blockquote>因此，1570年，信长带着30,000名士兵出发前往石山本愿寺，其中许多人接受过早期版本的火绳枪的训练。信长本人手持日本最著名的剑——“道吉里安纲”。传说道吉里安纲被用来杀死当时最可怕的恶魔——酒吞道吉。</blockquote></p><p> Despite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.</p><p><blockquote>尽管信长拥有大量武器，但他对石山本愿寺要塞的进攻并没有成功。他的部队围攻石山十年，他被击退了十年。事实上，1580年一光一号最终投降时，是应朝廷的要求，而不是要塞被攻破。</blockquote></p><p> So how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?</p><p><blockquote>那么一晃一辉是如何抵挡住中世纪日本最可怕的幕府将军的呢？</blockquote></p><p> A moat, of course.</p><p><blockquote>当然是护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Flowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.</p><p><blockquote>环绕石山大教堂要塞的是一条错综复杂的护城河，上面是毫无特色的城墙。由于有了护城河，这些城墙不能被攻城塔或隧道攻击。它们不能被攀爬或跨越。它无懈可击。</blockquote></p><p> In reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.</p><p><blockquote>关于这种可以防御攻击者10年或更长时间的中世纪结构，“护城河”一词从此成为衡量企业寿命的常用指标。我欣赏历史有意义的时候。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir’s Seven Moats</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的七大护城河</b></blockquote></p><p>   <i>Growth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”</i>  -Peter Thiel, Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir</p><p><blockquote><i>增长很容易衡量，但持久性却不容易。如果你把短期增长看得比什么都重要，你就错过了你应该问的最重要的问题：十年后，这项业务还会存在吗？光靠数字是不会告诉你答案的；相反，你必须批判性地思考你的业务的质量特征。”</i>—Peter Thiel，Palantir创始人兼董事长</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.</p><p><blockquote>在《7种权力》一书中，汉密尔顿·赫尔默(Hamilton Helmer)写道，企业可以用来指导价值创造工作的七条护城河。赫尔默认为，通过将卓越运营与深思熟虑的护城河建设相结合，企业或许能够使自己具有持久的价值。这七种力量是：规模经济、网络效应、反向定位、转换成本、品牌、垄断资源和流程力量。</blockquote></p><p> Helmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.</p><p><blockquote>赫尔默概述了以现代企业为代表的这些护城河的案例研究。Pixar拥有智囊团（被垄断的资源），Nike（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NKE）可以为一双鞋收取比竞争对手（品牌）更高的费用，而Netflix（纳斯达克股票代码：NFLX）的内容制作成本随着订户的增加而降低（规模经济）。世界上最具标志性的公司有两条，也许三条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir (PLTR) has all seven.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir(PLTR)拥有全部七项。</blockquote></p><p> I know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.</p><p><blockquote>我知道这听起来很疯狂，因为Palantir九个月前上市，是的，它仍然没有盈利。是的，基于股票的薪酬是丰厚的。是的，收入集中，是的，估值乐观。对所有这些都是肯定的。</blockquote></p><p> No take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.</p><p><blockquote>没有收回。Palantir有七条护城河。让我给你看看。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's Scale Economies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的规模经济</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The quality of declining unit costs as volume increases</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着数量的增加，单位成本下降的质量</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的销售周期可能是其商业模式中最被误解的方面。反对者认为Palantir是一家服务公司。以每股35美元的价格买入的购物者认为Palantir是一家SaaS公司。他们都是对的。</blockquote></p><p> Gotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”</p><p><blockquote>Gotham和Foundry为政府和商业客户提供高利润的经常性软件合同。与此同时，Palantir引进技术顾问来扩大和成熟这些合同。Palantir将这个销售周期描述为“收购、扩张和规模化”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Acquire</b></p><p><blockquote><b>获得</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> While Palantir<i>is</i>a software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.</p><p><blockquote>而Palantir<i>是</i>作为一家软件公司，它与其他分享这个标签的公司截然不同。例如，向企业销售Zoom（ZM）这样的软件和销售Foundry之间存在一些差异。截至2021年第一季度，Palantir报告每位客户的年收入为810万美元。这种惊人的产品收入掩盖了Palantir产品的价值，但也凸显了其销售周期的复杂性。</blockquote></p><p> In&nbsp;Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，Acquire客户被描述为那些享受Palantir技术短期试点部署的客户。Palantir亏本运营这些账户，并指出这一销售阶段通常平均持续6-9个月。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Expand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>扩大</b></blockquote></p><p> The second phase, Expand, is characterized by<i>value building.</i>Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.</p><p><blockquote>第二阶段，扩展，其特征是<i>价值建设。</i>Palantir专注于了解客户的挑战并应对这些挑战。这些客户向Palantir提供较大收入合同，但通常也代表负贡献利润率。</blockquote></p><p> I know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptor<i>bespoke.</i></p><p><blockquote>我知道，连续两个阶段的无利可图的产品交付。然而，这一阶段的特点是Palantir的个性化价值创造几乎呈病毒式扩张，这得益于收购阶段6-9个月的数据摄取和客户反馈。正是在这个阶段，Palantir的产品开始配得上这个描述<i>定制的。</i></blockquote></p><p> Expand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.</p><p><blockquote>Expand是由首席执行官Alex Karp本人推动的，在大流行之前，他每年有250天亲自拜访客户。这也许是卡普最不可磨灭的贡献；这位首席执行官为一家从未有过销售人员的公司担任销售人员。Palantir的客户是鲸鱼。卡普是亚哈船长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Scale</b></p><p><blockquote><b>比例</b></blockquote></p><p> The word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.</p><p><blockquote>“规模”一词在Palantir S-1中被使用了整整44次，Palantir将规模客户定义为那些贡献具有正边际的成熟合同的客户。在规模化过程中，我们见证了Palantir单位经济效益的逆转。随着客户账户的成熟，Palantir的投资成本会降低。客户现在可以独立操作，在Foundry或Gotham之上构建自己的应用程序。这会带来新的用例、更少的服务费以及更大比例的高利润经常性收入。</blockquote></p><p>   It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.  Source:Palantir S-1</p><p><blockquote>正是在我们与客户合作的规模阶段，我们通常会看到特定账户的贡献率有所提高。2019年，我们在规模阶段从客户那里获得了5.657亿美元的收入，贡献率为55%。2020年上半年，这些客户创造了2.963亿美元的收入，贡献率为68%。资料来源：Palantir S-1</blockquote></p><p> And also:</p><p><blockquote>还有：</blockquote></p><p>   <b>We believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.</b>We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a  <b>contribution margin during the period of 89%.</b>  Source:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine</p><p><blockquote><b>我们相信，从长远来看，我们所有的客户都将进入规模化阶段。</b>我们还相信，随着我们在整个客户运营中部署我们的软件平台以及管理和运营我们的软件方面变得更加高效，规模阶段账户的边际贡献将进一步增加……2020年上半年，前25%的客户截至2019年底，规模阶段的边际贡献为<b>期内供款率为89%。</b>资料来源：Palantir S-1，重点矿</blockquote></p><p> For those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:<b>Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.</b>As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些因Palantir无法盈利而苦恼的人，请注意：<b>Palantir刚刚开始利用这条护城河来推动接近90%的天文数字贡献率。</b>随着Palantir将更多客户从扩张转向规模化，利润率将会提高，成本将会降低，收入集中度将会多元化。随着Palantir优化并在某些情况下自动化软件部署，我预计获取和扩展周期会缩短，从而使飞轮旋转得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/604faf2a51bd7d6e60abbc5d89663571\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"378\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Network effects</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>网络效应</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product</i></p><p><blockquote><i>随着更多客户使用产品，产品变得更有价值</i></blockquote></p><p> In Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,”&nbsp;is listed&nbsp;within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.</p><p><blockquote>在Palantir的S-1中，“产生网络效应”列在第一原则部分。他们接着描述了随着越来越多的员工使用Palantir的软件如何对客户变得更有价值。</blockquote></p><p>   At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.  -Source:Palantir’s S-1</p><p><blockquote>在一家金融服务客户中，network effects使我们的平台能够从单个用例扩展到跨合规、前台、风险和内部审计部门的70多个工作流。-资料来源：Palantir的S-1</blockquote></p><p> Imagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).</p><p><blockquote>想象一下，你是奥克兰银行的一名穿着毛衣背心的软件工程师，刚刚同意进行代工试点。当您啜饮燕麦牛奶拿铁时，您开始点击Foundry信息仪表板，慢慢地探索和试验Foundry平台。你意识到你可以在注入人工智能的应用程序上运行数据分析，并开始识别效率低下的地方，这些地方与你的团队和主管分享（让你看起来很聪明）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> As Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>随着Foundry用于识别优化目标，开发人员开始在Foundry之上构建他们自己的应用层，它识别新的用例和新的应用，并添加新的层。Palantir的网络效应表现为数字歌剧蛋糕；随着效用产生效用，不可磨灭的用例堆栈越来越高。这是Palantir的第二条护城河。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.</p><p><blockquote>我相信也有特定行业的网络效应在起作用。与Palantir当前客户空中客车公司(OTCPK：EADSF)相比，波音公司(NYSE：BA)的Palantir软件部署有多大不同？我敢打赌，不多。</blockquote></p><p> The Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended to<i>any</i>pharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>生命科学领域是另一个例子，Palantir将其确定为未来的主要增长领域。Palantir透露，一家排名前5的制药公司正在使用Foundry来整合数千项临床试验的基因分型和实验室数据。这种经验可以推广到<i>任何</i>制药公司，Palantir与该客户的合作使我们能够预见此类公司将从中受益的无数用例。这里的远见不是无形的；对于与Palantir签署协议的每一个额外的特定行业客户来说，它可以以更低的成本加速产品扩展。</blockquote></p><p> This moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.</p><p><blockquote>随着Palantir最大的客户不断扩张并续签更大的合同，这条护城河在数字上得到了证实。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Switching</b>&nbsp;<b>Costs</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>切换</b> <b>成本</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Customers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier</i></p><p><blockquote><i>如果客户转向不同的产品供应商，他们将遭受价值损失</i></blockquote></p><p> This is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.</p><p><blockquote>这也许是Palantir最容易强调的护城河。如果您对机器学习有基本的了解，您可能会直觉到像Palantir这样的数据分析公司会有很高的转换成本。</blockquote></p><p> I believe there is a<i>point of no return</i>for customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.</p><p><blockquote>我相信有个<i>不归路</i>对于处于销售周期扩展阶段的客户。在这一点上，代工用例正在成倍增加，效率正在实现，软件正在变得越来越少的服务，而更多的是企业的中央操作系统。在给定的组织中，Palantir会整理数PB的数据并将其提炼为可操作的流程，Foundry每天都会更好地了解组织的需求。请记住，这可能是客户关系的18个月，Foundry已成为公司工作流程中的日常分析工具。</blockquote></p><p> I believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这是不归路，因为这里的替代方案是不可想象的。首先，这个替代软件提供商是谁？布勒？即使有类似于Foundry的服务，但没有，你也要从头再来。企业希望加速，不，奔向数字化、人工智能驱动的未来。尝试向高级管理层解释，我们必须在18个月内停止代工业务，因为价格太高。您必须回到第0天进行数据收集、分析和提炼。这将是最大规模的努力、时间和费用的重复。在Expand的某个地方，你陷得太深了——如果你关灯，冰淇淋就会融化。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir最大的合同是Palantir最长的客户。这不是巧合。这是Palantir的第三条护城河。随着客户成为Palantir产品的深度用户，转换成本只会增加。</blockquote></p><p> Commodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>商品软件服务永远不会享有Palantir所拥有的战略优势。如果你的公司从Skype转向Zoom，这真的有那么大的问题吗？</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir'sBranding</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的品牌</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>The durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller</i></p><p><blockquote><i>从卖方的历史信息中产生的客观上相同的产品的更高价值的持久属性</i></blockquote></p><p> The Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.</p><p><blockquote>在可口可乐（纽约证券交易所股票代码：KO）等基本消费品的背景下，品牌护城河更容易理解。例如，我可能会花双倍的钱买一杯可口可乐。</blockquote></p><p> Making this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.</p><p><blockquote>在数据分析软件中进行这种比较是一个挑战，因为我不相信Palantir有相同的产品。然而，假设一下，让我们假设这样一家公司存在。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir自2003年成立以来已打造了一个标志性品牌。起诉美国，过去18年来，Palantir一直由中央情报局资助，与识别和击毙奥萨马·本·拉登有关。军队和胜利，并精心策划了一个阴谋和表面上超自然的分析能力的叙事。但这种公司形象并不是我在这里要强调的品牌护城河。</blockquote></p><p> This is the publicly traded company the<i>U.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program</i>. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.</p><p><blockquote>这是一家上市公司<i>美国政府雇佣员工来管理他们的核计划</i>.这是NHS雇佣的公司，在我们这个时代最大的公共卫生危机期间管理个人防护设备库存和疫苗推广。在过去的二十年里，Palantir拥有在我国面临的最极端情况下度过难关的记录。我认为，对于美国政府来说，没有哪家软件公司比Palantir更能体现可靠性和安全性。这是一个经久不衰的品牌。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The below press releases were announced over the past two months<i>alone</i>:</p><p><blockquote>以下是过去两个月发布的新闻稿<i>单独的</i>：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response</li>  <li>Palantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command</li>  <li>Palantir and Space Force Expand Partnership</li> </ul> I don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CDC与Palantir续签疾病监测和疫情应对合作伙伴关系</li><li>Palantir获得价值1.11亿美元的合同，为美国特种作战司令部提供任务指挥平台</li><li>Palantir与太空军扩大合作伙伴关系</li></ul>我不在乎你对Palantir的估值有多悲观。没有一家软件公司拥有Palantir在美国政府及其海外盟友中所拥有的品牌价值。随着Palantir扩展到商业领域，客户越来越关注网络安全和数据保真度……哪个竞争对手能指出Palantir的简历？当误差幅度必须为零，并且您正在展望一个不会失败的场景时，请押注Palantir。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Counter-Positioning</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>反向定位</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>A newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business</i></p><p><blockquote><i>新进入者采用了一种新的、优越的商业模式，而在位者由于预期对其现有业务造成损害而不会模仿这种模式</i></blockquote></p><p> Counter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the&nbsp;digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.</p><p><blockquote>反向定位是一条独特的护城河，我认为数字钱包领域的Square(SQ)最能代表这一点。现有银行的行动完全是为了对抗Square的举措，部分原因是监管，部分原因是竞争被低估，但主要是因为提供数字钱包解决方案可能会蚕食银行的核心产品。这就是反定位护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的反向定位护城河可能不太明显。首先，谁是现任者？Palantir的技术极具颠覆性，因此很难理解天然竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p> For Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbent<i>was</i>the government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.</p><p><blockquote>对于哥谭市（政府）来说，现任<i>什么</i>政府；美国。陆军、国防部、中央情报局等。让我们把时钟拨回到2015年。美国。陆军发布了一份招标书，寻求建造分布式通用地面系统-陆军（DCGS-A）。这将是一个集成的数据分析框架，可以从众多来源收集数据，跨一套分析工具无缝共享数据，并为战场上的士兵提供易于使用的可视化。听起来很熟悉？对我来说，这听起来就像Palantir的Gotham产品。</blockquote></p><p> DCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.</p><p><blockquote>DCGS-A实际上是一个酝酿了十多年的陆军内部项目，开发成本为30亿美元。Palantir以低得多的成本参与了竞标，但陆军选择继续自己的内部开发。Palantir最终对陆军提起诉讼，辩称哥谭市提供了陆军试图建设的确切服务，而且成本只是陆军试图建设的一小部分。2016年10月，一名联邦法官做出了有利于Palantir（2377）的裁决，并开创了政府必须在最大实际范围内采购商业服务和产品的先例。陆军对此提出上诉，但后来于2018年在美国上诉法院维持原判。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70fc6c13c9c0d3ca0b559fd48bdff1da\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"457\"><span>Source:Palantir S-1 Filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir S-1文件</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir针对陆军的里程碑式诉讼出人意料地加深了与美国政府的关系。诉讼发生后的一年，Palantir的陆军收入相当于前11年的总和。</blockquote></p><p> Similar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.</p><p><blockquote>与现有银行类似，规模也会产生官僚主义和惰性。尽管美国政府拥有巨大的影响力和权力，但它要么选择在数据分析方面投资不足，行动过于缓慢，要么低估了私营部门的创新步伐。可能每种都有一些。</blockquote></p><p> These same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.</p><p><blockquote>这些同样的竞争问题也出现在私营部门。甲骨文(ORCL)和SAP(SAP)等大型企业软件巨头在过去十年里一直在为“足够好”的产品建立销售团队。与此同时，Palantir在没有知名销售人员的情况下一直在痴迷地扩大和完善他们的产品（稍后将详细介绍）。Palantir在过去18年里的全部重点是设计伟大的产品，而现有企业现在刚刚感受到企业软件文化转变的深刻、几乎是全球性的呻吟，以及错失机会的哀叹。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir正在通过投资数据分析领域几家年轻、颠覆性的公司来深化其反定位护城河。在我之前的Palantir文章中，Palantir的SPAC：你看到卡普所看到的了吗？，我将Palantir对这些公司的投资概述为扩大市场覆盖范围和建立有价值的投资组合的机会。</blockquote></p><p> I have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.</p><p><blockquote>从那以后，我在这个分析中又增加了一层。这些投资公司不仅扩大了Palantir的市场影响力，而且还是Palantir产品的灯塔，是可能表明velocity Foundry对产品路线图和上市步伐做出贡献的使者。通过与这些公司合作，Palantir巩固了其技术领先地位，并展示了对其声誉所依据的创新产品DNA的承诺。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Cornered Resources</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>被垄断的资源</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Preferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value</i></p><p><blockquote><i>以有吸引力的条款优先获得可以独立增值的令人垂涎的资产</i></blockquote></p><p> Palantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir拥有两种资源，使其相对于竞争对手具有显着优势：技术和人才。我将从泰尔对技术优势的定义开始。这是雄心勃勃的，但Palantir清除了这个障碍。</blockquote></p><p>   As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”  - Peter Thiel, Co-Founder &amp; Chairman, Palantir,<i>Zero to One</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一个很好的经验法则，专有技术必须在某些重要方面比最接近的替代品至少好10倍，才能带来真正的垄断优势。”-Peter Thiel，Palantir联合创始人兼董事长，<i>零比一</i></blockquote></p><p> Ten times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.</p><p><blockquote>好了十倍。当提供的产品比替代产品好10倍时，惊人的事情就会发生。SpaceX（太空）火箭的效率比NASA高10倍，在Bumble（BMBL）结识下一个男朋友比在当地酒吧容易10倍，在Netflix（NFLX）上观看《指环王》比开车去百思买（BBY）买一套DVD容易10倍。</blockquote></p><p> Although it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwise<i>never existed</i>. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.</p><p><blockquote>尽管还处于早期阶段，但Palantir的软件在几个方面似乎已经比竞争对手好10倍。例如，在2021年第一季度，Gotham被用来使国防部所有11个作战司令部能够从情报、作战、后勤和供应数据中产生综合战略决策优势。这种能力否则<i>从未存在过</i>.Palantir的软件非常先进，它不断发明新的用例，这证明了这些产品所代表的对数改进。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/03bd98e9e9f53009b19523de56ceb5dd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"384\"><span>Source:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir 2020年第四季度业务更新</span></p></blockquote></p><p> And Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).</p><p><blockquote>Palantir继续在创新方面超越竞争对手。在Palantir的2020年第四季度收益演示中，他们提供了国防部影响6级(IL-6)状态轨迹的最新信息。他们是世界上仅有的四家IL-5公司（关键任务信息国家安全系统）之一，目标是IL-6，这将使他们成为机密国家安全系统的第一个SaaS。作为参照系，IL-2公司包括数据分析巨头Snowflake(SNOW)和Google(GOOG)。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的数据更好，因为Palantir的数据质量更好。在分析中，我们非常重视数据量，因此数据质量更加重要。十多年来，哥谭市一直在泥地、太空和海底嗡嗡作响，被最严酷和最苛刻的场景所告知。哥谭是经过战斗考验的企业软件。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的第二个陷入困境的资源是人才。据报道，卡普对顶尖工程人才的嗅觉和吸引能力导致了一份几乎无法效仿的名人录。</blockquote></p><p> As an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:</p><p><blockquote>作为一名投资者，我可以接受Palantir空头涂鸦他们的稀释现金流模型以及基于股票的薪酬如何影响它。但这些熊不能同日而语：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Complain about Palantir’s SBC and--</li>  <li>Argue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent</li> </ol> Palantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>抱怨Palantir的SBC和--</li><li>认为Palantir没有工程人才护城河</li></ol>Palantir正在通过SBC和改变世界的机会激励工程和产品人才。如果一支NFL球队没有工资帽，每个位置都将由联盟中的顶级球员填补。这就是卡普所做的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir's</b>&nbsp;<b>Process Power</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir的</b> <b>过程功率</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Embedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment</i></p><p><blockquote><i>嵌入式公司组织和活动集，可实现更低的成本和/或更好的产品，并且只能通过扩展承诺来匹配</i></blockquote></p><p> Process Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.</p><p><blockquote>流程能力是Palantir的第七条也是最后一条护城河。最明显的例子是产品部署速度和Palantir产品的综合性。</blockquote></p><p>   An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.  -Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update</p><p><blockquote>一家能源巨头在几个小时内部署了我们的ERP套件。在两周内，他们节省了5700万美元的现金，预计年化将节省10亿美元。-Palantir 2020年第三季度业务更新</blockquote></p><p> Traditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.</p><p><blockquote>竞争对手提供的传统高接触软件解决方案以路线图的方式交付，最终产品交付有时需要几个月甚至几年的时间。Palantir的软件可以在数小时内部署并实现效益。</blockquote></p><p> In addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.</p><p><blockquote>此外，没有竞争对手拥有Palantir所提供的全面数据分析产品。这意味着不使用Palantir的客户要承担数十家独立公司的许可费，这些公司的软件通常无法相互通信。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e1a1a03982b19a3b4181802ebb450f6\" tg-width=\"608\" tg-height=\"758\"><span>Source:The Generalist</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：通才</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir已经构建了完整的数据分析应用程序堆栈，并将根据客户的需要继续这样做。由此产生的产品如此引人注目且交付速度如此之快，以至于Palantir没有任何直接竞争对手。在上图中，概述了Palantir的19种产品应用，并提供了简要描述以及哪些竞争对手提供了类似的产品。请注意，下一个最全面的产品来自Tableau，只有四种产品与Palantir重叠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/033d44206281f6449c0178f2f5943681\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"402\"><span>Source: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Me，在Palantir S-1文件的帮助下</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.</p><p><blockquote>当我最初开始撰写有关Palantir流程能力的笔记时，产品部署速度及其全面性等功能立即显而易见。然而，我对Palantir的商业模式思考得越多，我就越开始看到第二条护城河，一条更宽、更深的护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.</p><p><blockquote>也许Palantir最大的战略优势是其产品为客户提供了流程能力护城河。</blockquote></p><p> Said another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，Foundry和Gotham允许客户建立自己的工艺能力护城河。如果您是一家使用Palantir的财富100强公司，随着您的供应链实现共振、低效率被削减以及产品路线图斜率垂直，您对竞争对手的领先优势将会扩大。Palantir的软件允许客户查看以其命名的非常引人注目的石头。</blockquote></p><p> Palantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir认识到了这条护城河，这就是他们积极投资早期数据公司的原因——因此他们可能会在Palantir护城河保护的快速增长的业务中分得一杯羹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Palantir Final Thoughts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Palantir最后的想法</b></blockquote></p><p> I am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.</p><p><blockquote>我着迷于用王朝的持久力建立堡垒般的企业的概念。只有少数公司能够拥有Palantir的七种力量，而且在数据分析领域还没有一家公司。Palantir的规模经济、网络效应、品牌、反向定位、垄断资源和流程能力为其自身、投资者和客户创造巨大价值奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> Over the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,<i>enduringly valuable</i>. Palantir is building a dynasty.</p><p><blockquote>在未来几十年里，这些护城河将汇集并相互作用，推动一个常青的飞轮，使Palantir能够创建一项业务，用Helmer的话说，<i>持久有价值</i>.Palantir正在建立一个王朝。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436865-palantir-seven-moats-building-a-dynasty\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436865-palantir-seven-moats-building-a-dynasty","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115559324","content_text":"Summary\n\nMoats are competitive advantages built by businesses to protect profits and generate staying power.\nThere are seven types of moats, and great companies generally have two or three. Palantir has all seven.\nThese moats will allow Palantir to build an enduringly impactful and profitable business.\n\nScott Olson/Getty Images\nNewsIntroduction: On Building a Dynasty\nIn the mid 16thcentury, Japan was engaged in all-out civil war.\nOda Nobunaga, a samurai regarded as the “Great Unifier” (or “Devil king,” on the battlefield) was emerging as the most powerful samurai warlord in all of Japan. His name had become synonymous with military brilliance, and he had a knack for unseating more powerful opponents.\nDespite the power of Nobunaga, a faction of the Buddhist faith, called the Ikkō (Single Minded) Ikki (League), began consolidating power, building fortresses and accumulating growing numbers of warrior monks. The Ikkō Ikki ultimately established themselves in the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji (Stone Mountain) in what is modern day Osaka.\nBy the 1560’s Nobunaga had defeated all opposing samurai warlords in Japan, and only the Ikkō Ikki stood in the way of Nobunaga blanketing Japan with his hegemony.\nAnd so, in 1570 Nobunaga set out for Ishiyama Hongan-ji with 30,000 troops, many of whom were trained with early versions of rifles known as arquebuses. Nobunaga himself was armed with the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna: Japan’s most famous sword. Legend has it that the Dōjigiri Yasutsuna was used to kill the most terrifying demon of its time: the Shuten-Dōji.\nDespite the considerable weapons at his disposal, Nobunaga’s attack on the fortress of Ishiyama Hongan-ji was unsuccessful. For ten years his forces laid siege to Ishiyama, and for ten years he was repelled. Indeed, when the Ikkō Ikki finally surrendered in 1580, it was at the request of the Imperial Court rather than the fortress being overrun.\nSo how did the Ikkō Ikki fend off the most fearsome shogun in medieval Japan?\nA moat, of course.\nFlowing around the cathedral fortress of Ishiyama was an intricate labyrinth of moats surmounted by featureless walls. As a consequence of the moats, these walls could not be assaulted with siege towers or tunneled through. They could not be climbed or vaulted. It was unassailable.\nIn reference to this medieval structure that could provide defense against attackers for 10 years or more, the word “moat” has since become a common measure of a business’ longevity. I appreciate when history makes sense.\nPalantir’s Seven Moats\n\nGrowth is easy to measure, but durability isn’t. If you focus on near-term growth above all else, you miss the most important question you should be asking: will this business still be around a decade from now? Numbers alone won’t tell you the answer; instead you must think critically about the qualitative characteristics of your business.”\n\n-Peter Thiel, Founder & Chairman, Palantir\nIn 7 Powers, Hamilton Helmer writes about the seven moats a business may employ to guide value-creation efforts. By combining operational excellence with thoughtful moat-building, Helmer argues, a business may be able to make itself enduringly valuable. The seven powers are: Scale Economies, Network Effects, Counter-Positioning, Switching Costs, Branding, Cornered Resources, and Process Power.\nHelmer outlines case studies of these moats represented by modern day enterprises. Pixar had the brain trust (Cornered Resource), Nike(NYSE:NKE)can charge more for a pair of shoes than competitors (Brand), and Netflix’s(NASDAQ:NFLX)content costs less to produce as it gains subscribers (Scale Economies). The most iconic companies in the world have two, maybe three moats.\nPalantir (PLTR) has all seven.\nI know that sounds crazy because Palantir went public nine months ago, and yes, it remains unprofitable. Yes, the stock based compensation is corpulent. Yes, revenue is concentrated and yes, valuation is optimistic. Yes to all of it.\nNo take backs. Palantir has seven moats. Let me show you.\nPalantir's Scale Economies\nThe quality of declining unit costs as volume increases\nPalantir’s sales cycles are perhaps the most misunderstood aspect of their business model. Naysayers argue Palantir is a services company. Bag holders who bought at $35/share argue Palantir is a SaaS company. They’re both right.\nGotham and Foundry drive high margin, recurring software contracts for government and commercial customers alike. Meanwhile, Palantir parachutes in technical consultants to expand and mature these contracts. Palantir describes this sales cycle as “Acquire, Expand, and Scale.”\nAcquire\nWhile Palantirisa software company, it stands quite apart from others who share this label. For example, there are some differences between selling a software like Zoom (ZM) to an enterprise, and selling Foundry. As of Q1 2021, Palantir reported $8.1 million in annual revenue per customer. This staggering product revenue belies the value of Palantir’s offerings, but also underscores the complexity of their sales cycle.\nIn Palantir’s S-1, Acquire customers are described as those enjoying short-term pilot deployments of Palantir’s technology. Palantir operates these accounts at a loss, and notes this selling phase generally lasts 6-9 months on average.\nExpand\nThe second phase, Expand, is characterized byvalue building.Palantir focuses on understanding the customer’s challenges and delivering against them. These are customers who provide larger revenue contracts to Palantir, but also generally represent negative contribution margins.\nI know, two stages in a row of unprofitable product delivery. However, this stage is marked by an almost viral expansion of Palantir’s personalized value creation, informed by 6 – 9 months of data ingestion and customer feedback during the Acquire phase. It is in this stage that Palantir’s offerings begin to merit the descriptorbespoke.\nExpand is fueled by CEO Alex Karp himself, who, prior to the pandemic, spent 250 days a year visiting clients in person. This is perhaps the most ineffaceable contribution of Karp; the CEO served as a salesforce for a company that never had one. Palantir’s customers are whales. Karp is Captain Ahab.\nScale\nThe word “scale” is used a full 44 times in thePalantir S-1, and Palantir defines Scale customers as those contributing mature contracts with a positive contribution margin. During Scale, we witness a reversal of Palantir’s unit economics. As customer accounts mature, Palantir’s investment costs decrease. Customers can now operate independently, building their own applications on top of Foundry or Gotham. This results in new use cases, less services fees, and a greater proportion of high-margin recurring revenue.\n\n It is in the Scale phase of our partnerships with customers that we generally see contribution margin on particular accounts improve. In 2019, we generated $565.7 million in revenue from customers in the Scale phase, with a contribution margin of 55%. In H1 2020, those same customers generated $296.3 million in revenue, with a contribution margin of 68%.\n\nSource:Palantir S-1\nAnd also:\n\nWe believe that all of our customers will move into the Scale phase over the long term.We also believe that contribution margin for Scale phase accounts will increase further as we become more efficient at deploying our software platforms across the entirety of our customers’ operations and at managing and operating our software…In H1 2020, the top 25% of customers by contribution margin in the Scale phase as of the end of 2019 had a\n contribution margin during the period of 89%.\n\nSource:Palantir S-1, emphasis mine\nFor those of you wringing your clammy hands over Palantir’s inability to turn a profit, take notice:Palantir has just begun to leverage this moat to drive astronomical contribution margins approaching 90%.As Palantir converts more customers from Expand to Scale, margins will improve, costs will depress, and revenue concentration will diversify. As Palantir optimizes and in some cases automates software deployment, I expect the Acquire and Expand cycles shorten, allowing this flywheel to spin faster.\nSource:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update\nPalantir's Network effects\nThe product becomes more valuable as more customers use the product\nIn Palantir’s S-1, “Generate Network Effects,” is listed within the First Principles section. They go on to describe how Palantir’s software becomes more valuable to the customer as more employees use the product.\n\n At a financial services customer, network effects enabled our platforms to scale from a single use case to more than 70 workstreams across compliance, front office, risk, and internal audit desks.\n\n-Source:Palantir’s S-1\nImagine, for a moment, you are a sweater-vest wearing software engineer at Okland Bank, who just agreed to a Foundry pilot. As you sip your oat milk latte, you begin clicking through Foundry information dashboards, and slowly you explore and experiment with the Foundry platform. You realize you can run data-analytics on AI-infused applications, and begin identifying inefficiencies, which are shared with your team and supervisors (making you look quite brilliant).\nAs Foundry is used to identify optimization targets, developers begin building their own application layer on top of Foundry, which identifies new use cases and new applications, and new layers are added. Palantir’s network effects manifest as a digital opera cake; an indelible stack of use cases rising ever higher as utility begets utility. This is the second of Palantir’s moats.\nI believe there are sector-specific network effects in play as well. How much different would Palantir’s software deployment be for Boeing(NYSE:BA)as compared to current Palantir customer Airbus(OTCPK:EADSF)? Not much, I'd wager.\nThe Life Sciences sector, which Palantir identified as a major growth area moving forward is another example. Palantir revealed that a top 5 pharma company is using Foundry to integrate genotyping and lab data across thousands of clinical trials. This experience can be extended toanypharma company, and Palantir’s work with this customer allows foresight into the myriad use cases such companies would benefit from. Foresight here is not intangible; it results in accelerated product expansion at lower cost for each and every additional sector-specific customer who inks a deal with Palantir.\nThis moat is borne out in the numbers, as Palantir’s largest customers continue to expand and renew larger contracts.\nPalantir's Switching Costs\nCustomers would incur value loss if they switched to a different product supplier\nThis is perhaps the easiest moat to highlight for Palantir. If you understand machine learning at a basic level, you might intuit how a data analytics company like Palantir would have high Switching Costs.\nI believe there is apoint of no returnfor customers somewhere in the Expand phase of the sales cycle. At this point, Foundry use cases are multiplying, efficiencies are being realized, and the software is becoming less a service and more the central operating system of the enterprise. In a given organization, petabytes of data have been collated by Palantir and refined into actionable processes, and each day Foundry knows the organizational needs a little bit better. Remember, this is likely 18 months into a customer relationship, and Foundry has become an everyday analytics tool in the company workflow.\nI believe this is the point of no return, because the alternative here is unimaginable. First and foremost, who is this alternative software provider? Bueller? Even if there was a comparable service to Foundry, and there’s not, you would be starting entirely over again. Enterprises want to accelerate, no, hurtle towards a digital, AI-driven future. Try explaining to senior management we have to pull the plug 18 months in on Foundry because the price tag is too steep. You would have to go back to Day 0 with data collection, analysis and refining. It would be a duplication of effort, time and expense of the greatest scale. Somewhere in Expand you’re in too deep – if you turn off the lights, the ice cream melts.\nPalantir’s largest contracts have been customers of Palantir the longest. This is not coincidence. It is a moat, Palantir's third. Switching costs only increase as customers become deeper users of Palantir products.\nCommodity software services will never enjoy the strategic advantage Palantir owns. Would it really be that big of a deal if your company switched from Skype to Zoom?\nPalantir'sBranding\nThe durable attribution of higher value to an objectively identical offering that arises from historical information about the seller\nThe Branding moat is easier to understand in the context of basic consumer products, like Coca-Cola(NYSE:KO). I would probably pay double for a Coca-Cola than a Koka Kola, for example.\nMaking this comparison in data analytics software is challenged because I don’t believe there is an identical offering to Palantir. Hypothetically, however, let’s assume such a company exists.\nPalantir has built an iconic brand since its inception in 2003. Over the past 18 years, Palantir has been funded by the CIA, linked to the identification and killing of Osama Bin Laden, sued the U.S. Army and won, and has carefully curated a narrative of intrigue and ostensibly supernatural analytics capabilities. But this company image is not the Branding moat I aim to highlight here.\nThis is the publicly traded company theU.S. government hires to manage their nuclear program. This is the company the NHS hires to manage PPE inventory and vaccine rollout during the greatest public health crisis of our time. Over the past two decades, Palantir has a track record of coming through in the most extreme circumstances our country faces. To the U.S. government, I would argue, there is no software company that better epitomizes reliability and security than Palantir. That is an enduring brand.\nThe below press releases were announced over the past two monthsalone:\n\nCDC Renews Partnership with Palantir for Disease Monitoring and Outbreak Response\nPalantir Awarded $111m Contract to Provide Mission Command Platform for the United States Special Operations Command\nPalantir and Space Force Expand Partnership\n\nI don’t care how bearish you may be about Palantir’s valuation. There is no software company that has the brand value Palantir does with the U.S. government and her allies abroad. As Palantir expands into commercial vectors with clients evermore concerned about cybersecurity, and data fidelity… what competitor can point to the resume Palantir can? When the margin of error must be zero, and you are looking down the barrel of a no fail scenario, bet on Palantir.\nPalantir's Counter-Positioning\nA newcomer adopts a new, superior business model which the incumbent does not mimic due to anticipated damage to their existing business\nCounter-positioning is a unique moat, I think best represented by Square (SQ) in the digital wallet space. Incumbent banks have moved with all the intention of an ice floe to counter Square’s moves, partly due to regulation, partly due to underestimated competition, but mostly because offering digital wallet solutions could cannibalize banks’ core products. This is the Counter-Positioning moat.\nPalantir’s Counter-Positioning moat is perhaps less obvious. First off, who is the incumbent? Palantir’s technology is so disruptive, it can be challenging to construe a natural competitor.\nFor Gotham (Gov’t), the incumbentwasthe government; the U.S. Army, the DoD, the CIA, etc. Let’s wind back the clocks to 2015. The U.S. Army released a solicitation seeking bids to build the Distributed Common Ground System-Army (DCGS-A). This would be an integrated data analytics framework that could gather data from numerous sources, share data seamlessly across a suite of analytical tools and provide easy-to use visualization for soldiers in the field. Sound familiar? Sounds exactly like Palantir’s Gotham product to me.\nDCGS-A was actually an internal Army project over a decade in the making at a development cost of $3 Billion. Palantir entered into the bidding at a much lower cost, but the Army elected to continue its own internal development. Palantir ultimately filed a lawsuit against the Army, arguing that Gotham provided the exact services the Army was attempting to build, and at a fraction of the cost. In October of 2016, a federal judge ruled in favor of Palantir (§ 2377), and established the precedent that the government must procure commercial services and products to the maximum practical extent. This was appealed by the Army, but later held up in the U.S. Court of Appeals in 2018.\nSource:Palantir S-1 Filing\nPalantir’s landmark lawsuit against the Army surprisingly resulted in a deepening relationship with the U.S. Government. In the year following the lawsuit, Palantir’s Army revenue equaled the sum of the eleven preceding years.\nSimilar to incumbent banks, there is something about size that begets bureaucracy and inertia. The U.S. government, for all its influence and power, either chose to underinvest in data analytics, moved too slowly, or underestimated the pace of innovation in the private sector. It was probably some of each.\nThese same competitive issues are manifesting in the private sector. Massive enterprise software behemoths like Oracle (ORCL) and SAP (SAP) have spent the past decade building out sales teams for ‘good enough’ products. Meanwhile, Palantir has been obsessively proliferating and refining their offerings (more on this later) without a recognizable salesforce. Palantir’s entire focus over the past 18 years was engineering great product, and the incumbents are just now sensing the deep, almost planetary groan of enterprise software culture shifting, the jeremiad of an opportunity missed.\nPalantir is deepening its Counter-Positioning moat by investing in several young, disruptive companies in the data analytics space. In my prior Palantir article,Palantir’s SPACs: Do You See What Karp Sees?, I outlined Palantir’s investments in these companies as opportunities to expand market reach and build a valuable portfolio.\nI have since added another layer to this analysis. These investment companies are not just expanding Palantir’s market reach, they are lighthouses for Palantir’s products, emissaries that may evince the velocity Foundry contributes to product roadmap and go to market pace. By partnering with these companies, Palantir is cementing its technological leadership and demonstrating commitment to the innovative product DNA its reputation is built around.\nPalantir's Cornered Resources\nPreferential access at attractive terms to a coveted asset that can independently enhance value\nPalantir hoards two resources that confer a remarkable advantage over its competitors: technology and talent. I’m going to start with Thiel’s definition of technological advantage. It’s ambitious, but Palantir clears this bar.\n\n As a good rule of thumb, proprietary technology must be at least 10 times better than its closest substitute in some important dimension to lead to a real monopolistic advantage.”\n\n- Peter Thiel, Co-Founder & Chairman, Palantir,Zero to One\nTen times better. When the product offered is 10x better than the alternative, amazing things can happen. SpaceX’s (SPACE) rockets are 10x more efficient than NASA’s, meeting your next boyfriend is 10x easier on Bumble (BMBL) than it is in your local bar, and streaming Lord of the Rings on Netflix (NFLX) is 10x easier than driving to Best Buy (BBY) to wrangle up a set of DVDs.\nAlthough it’s early days, Palantir’s software already appears to be 10x better than competitors in several ways. In Q1 2021, for example, Gotham was used to enable all 11 DoD Combatant Commands to generate integrated strategic decision advantage from intelligence, operations, logistics and supply data. This capability otherwisenever existed. Palantir’s software is so advanced it continues to invent new use cases, which is a testament to the logarithmic improvement these offerings represent.\nSource:Palantir Q4 2020 Business Update\nAnd Palantir continues to out-innovate competitors. In Palantir’s Q4 2020 earning presentation, they provided an update on trajectory towards a DoD Impact Level 6 (IL-6) status. They are one of only four IL-5 companies (Mission Critical Information National Security Systems) in the world, and are targeting IL-6, which would make them the first SaaS for Classified Secret National Security Systems. For frame of reference, IL-2 companies include data analytics giants Snowflake (SNOW) and Google (GOOG).\nPalantir’s data are better because Palantir’s data quality is better. For as much import as we place on data volume in analytics, data quality is even more prized. Gotham has been humming in the mud, in space, and on the ocean floor more than a decade, informed by the harshest and most demanding scenarios. Gotham is battle tested enterprise software.\nPalantir’s second Cornered Resource is talent. Karp’s reported nose for and ability to seduce top engineering talent has resulted in a who’s who roster almost impossible to emulate.\nAs an investor, I am okay with Palantir bears doodling out their diluted cash flow models and how stock based compensation affects it. But these bears cannot in the same breath:\n\nComplain about Palantir’s SBC and--\nArgue Palantir does not have a moat of engineering talent\n\nPalantir is incentivizing engineering and product talent with SBC and an opportunity to change the world. If one NFL team had no salary cap, every position would be filled with the top player in The League. That is what Karp has done.\nPalantir's Process Power\nEmbedded company organization and activity sets enabling lower costs and/or superior product, and which can be matched only by an extended commitment\nProcess Power is Palantir's seventh, and final, moat. The most obvious examples are product deployment speed and the comprehensive nature of Palantir’s offerings.\n\n An energy supermajor deployed our ERP suite in hours. Within two weeks, they generated $57 million of cash savings and expect to generate $1 billion on an annualized basis.\n\n-Palantir Q3 2020 Business Update\nTraditional high touch software solutions offered by competitors are delivered in roadmap fashion, with an ultimate product delivery sometimes months or even years down the road. Palantir’s software can be deployed and benefits realized within hours.\nIn addition, there are no competitors that have the sweeping data analytics offerings Palantir does. This means customers who are not using Palantir are burdened with licensing fees from dozens of separate companies whose software oftentimes doesn’t communicate with each other.\nSource:The Generalist\nPalantir has built a full stack of data analytics applications and continues to do so as needed for clients. The resulting product offering is so compelling and so rapidly delivered that Palantir does not have any direct competitors. In the above chart, Palantir's 19 product applications are outlined, with brief descriptions and which competitors offer a comparable product. Notice that the next most comprehensive offering comes from Tableau, and has only four products overlapping with Palantir.\nSource: Me, with help from Palantir’s S-1 filing\nWhen I initially began writing notes about Palantir’s Process Power, features such as product deployment speed and their comprehensive nature were immediately apparent. However, the more I reflected on Palantir’s business model, the more I began to see a second moat, one that is wider and deeper.\nPerhaps Palantir’s greatest strategic advantage is that its products offer the Process Power moat to its customers.\nSaid another way, Foundry and Gotham allow customers to build their own Process Power moat. If you are a Fortune 100 company using Palantir, your lead over competitors widens as your supply chains achieve resonance, inefficiencies are trimmed and the product roadmap slope goes vertical. Palantir's software allows customers to look into the very seeing stone it was named for.\nPalantir recognized this moat, which is why they are investing aggressively in early data companies – so they might take share in rapidly growing businesses defended by Palantir’s moats.\nPalantir Final Thoughts\nI am fascinated with the concept of building a fortress-like business with the staying power of a dynasty. There are only a few companies that can boast Palantir’s mélange of seven powers, and none exist in the data analytics sector. Palantir’s Scale Economies, Network Effects, Branding, Counter-Positioning, Cornered Resources, and Process Power have set the stage for massive value creation for itself, its investors and its clients.\nOver the coming decades, these moats will pool and interact, driving an evergreen flywheel allowing Palantir to create a business that is, in the words of Helmer,enduringly valuable. Palantir is building a dynasty.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2051,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":166616267,"gmtCreate":1624005800259,"gmtModify":1634024229057,"author":{"id":"3566777210018518","authorId":"3566777210018518","name":"Jordlee88","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1b6fd82d565980c00d01a02b919bb70e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3566777210018518","idStr":"3566777210018518"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like my comment pls&nbsp;","text":"Like my comment pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/166616267","repostId":"2144005727","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2011,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}