MrMrsBean的个人主页 - 老虎社区

MrMrsBean

MrMrsBean

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

154关注

23粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-09-10

Please like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

Please like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

Please like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

Please like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-10

Please like and comment. Thanks.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-07

Please like and comment. Thx

Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Please like and comment. Thx

Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Please like and comment. Thx

GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Please like and comment. Thx

Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>

2021-09-07

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-31

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

Please like and comment. Thx

Marqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.<blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote>

2021-08-30

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-30

Please like and comment. Thx

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"3571129545109571","uuid":"3571129545109571","gmtCreate":1608035523861,"gmtModify":1622427028822,"name":"MrMrsBean","pinyin":"mrmrsbean","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":23,"headSize":154,"tweetSize":367,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":2,"name":"无畏虎","nameTw":"無畏虎","represent":"初生牛犊","factor":"发布3条非转发主帖,1条获得他人回复或点赞","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-4","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"明星虎友","description":"加入老虎社区2000天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dddf24b906c7011de2617d4fb3f76987","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/53d58ad32c97254c6f74db8b97e6ec49","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6304700d92ad91c7a33e2e92ec32ecc1","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.06.08","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37-1","templateUuid":"976c19eed35f4cd78f17501c2e99ef37","name":"博闻投资者","description":"累计交易超过10只正股","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e74cc24115c4fbae6154ec1b1041bf47","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d48265cbfd97c57f9048db29f22227b0","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76c6d6898b073c77e1c537ebe9ac1c57","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1102,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969-1","templateUuid":"35ec162348d5460f88c959321e554969","name":"精英交易员","description":"证券或期货账户累计交易次数达到30次","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab0f87127c854ce3191a752d57b46edc","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c9835ce48b8c8743566d344ac7a7ba8c","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76754b53ce7a90019f132c1d2fbc698f","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":"60.35%","individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":4,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":883119794,"gmtCreate":1631225111718,"gmtModify":1631891649765,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883119794","repostId":"2166349857","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2911,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883119536,"gmtCreate":1631225097025,"gmtModify":1631891649769,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883119536","repostId":"2166854349","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3367,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883119670,"gmtCreate":1631225086490,"gmtModify":1631891649773,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883119670","repostId":"2166498593","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883119101,"gmtCreate":1631225070603,"gmtModify":1631891649775,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883119101","repostId":"2166349856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2876,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":883119903,"gmtCreate":1631225059902,"gmtModify":1631891649777,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/883119903","repostId":"2166349803","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2628,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817207352,"gmtCreate":1630965796376,"gmtModify":1631891649782,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817207352","repostId":"1138372877","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138372877","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932732,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1138372877?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:52","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138372877","media":"zerohedge","summary":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no d","content":"<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席讲话时，金融市场会倾听，杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话也不例外。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听到他的经济顾问时抱怨的内容：<i><b>“一方面是'这个'，另一方面是'那个'。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他迫切需要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间的总体经济平静之后，经济增长温和至合理，物价通胀相对较低，而且在冠状病毒封锁之前的 2020 年初，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会有什么期待。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国内生产总值和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis&nbsp;(BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元急剧下降至2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计是实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比 2020 年的低点增加了 12.5%，目前的水平高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government&nbsp;expenditures&nbsp;came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就实际私营部门活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭授权放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总额的35%。仅在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占总额的5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从国内生产总值中扣除，以此作为美国经济 “健康状况 ”的虚假指标，那么由于山姆大叔除了从私营部门征收的税款或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，那么私营经济的表现远没有国内生产总值数据所显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业率和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In&nbsp;July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初失业率达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，去年4月失业率上升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍然使其比 2020 年初的低点高出近 55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the&nbsp;Consumer Price Index&nbsp;(CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动，2021年CPI在今年7月升至5.4%。某些子集团，如能源和二手车汽车行业，按年率计算增长达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然居高不下，CPI 的涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及冠状病毒变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间内 GDP 将如何增长仍存在疑问，所有的目光和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做!</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current&nbsp;monthly purchase&nbsp;of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月价值1200亿美元的资产购买——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近于零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，由于供给侧问题，近期物价通胀可能只是暂时性的飙升，因此对物价上涨加速的担忧可能是错误的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近 “充分就业 ”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国家经济复苏的加息都必须谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此通常的宏观经济衡量标准所反映的持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往完全恢复和增长的经济的平稳道路。因此，现在真正具体说明何时以及减少多少资产购买，或者这些利率将从目前接近于零的水平上调多少可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健平稳的轨道上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖给世界带来的威胁等因素是独一无二的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一项独特的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直接的政策计划，因此为几乎每个人提供了一些东西，以缓解人们的恐惧和担忧，即要么政策脚在油门上停留太久，要么开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他保持沉默是因为他对经济前景的真诚怀疑，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命连任美联储理事会主席。毕竟，你不希望看起来像是在计划任何明确的政策举措，这些举措可能会威胁到参议员或众议员在2022年大选中的连任，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数席位的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the&nbsp;“Political Economic Cycle”&nbsp;(<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”的分析以来，一些经济学家就认识到，政治家和中央银行家对经济周期的各个阶段很敏感，因为它们可能会影响政治选举周期，从而影响他们对政策决策和方向的思考。<i>基克洛斯</i>1947年5月），他在书中追溯了在民主社会中观察到的由商业周期的各个阶段引起的执政政府的变化，以及政府中的人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治立场。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th&nbsp;century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国从 19 世纪中叶到 1945 年的这段时期，分析结果可以总结如下： “在英国，所有普遍的经济萧条...都会导致内阁危机和执政党更迭...在美国，在 1865 年至 1945 年的 20 次选举中，有 16 次选举都涉及在经济萧条时期投票时改变政党控制权，而在繁荣时期投票时保住政党的职位”。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图 “稳定金融和经济状况，并可能在短期内成功做到这一点”。虽然他的文章中没有追求这一点，但事实是，造成 “繁荣 ”和导致 “萧条 ”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时光 ”的货币和财政政策最终会引发经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权力地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）关于美联储政策及其未来可能方向的声明中困境的真正本质。基本的假设是，中央银行可以而且应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供需双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些需要在供应方了解需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付多少钱来获得它的价值来做到这一点；同时，价格告诉需求方供应商能够和愿意生产什么产品并提供销售，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场这两个方面的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是对借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以金钱表示）的人之间跨时间的资源使用交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付溢价，以换取未来支付此类溢价。该溢价是利率，可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。任何高于或低于此的利率都会分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何央行希望操纵低于市场协调水平的利率时，它会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可能会超过经济中的实际储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介的单位数量增加，买方可以通过这种媒介表达对所需商品和服务的更大需求，而且总体上往往会对整体市场价格造成上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过那些新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但这笔钱随后会转到另一组人手中；也就是说，那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，这第二个群体将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币逐步增加一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，所有成品和生产要素的价格都会在序列的不同时间受到不同程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续下去，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和被花费的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在这个过程中，人们发现一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源就会被分配和用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行储备伎俩</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the&nbsp;Monetary Base&nbsp;(loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>十多年来，自2008-2009年金融和住房危机以来，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应量。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系中的可贷准备金加上一般流通中的货币）相当于8370亿美元；到2014年8月，货币基础已经扩大到4万亿美元以上。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机在政府强制封锁和关闭方面影响美国之前，它仍然处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，货币基础达到6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of&nbsp;July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve&nbsp;pays&nbsp;those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统的货币供应量如此巨大地增加，却没有出现预期的普遍物价上涨？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷储备。</b>因此，截至 2021 年 7 月，银行持有约 3.9 万亿美元的 “超额准备金”（即高于美联储最低规定的准备金，要求银行持有储户可能提取现金），美联储向这些银行支付 0.15% 的利率。换句话说，63%的货币基础被排除在活跃的贷款市场之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国实际国内生产总值自 2010 年以来增长了 25% 以上，而货币流通速度（货币在每一段时间内的交易周转次数）在过去十年左右的时间里下降了近 40%，考虑到这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行，让银行不要把过去十年公开市场操作创造的巨额银行储备全部放出去的 “伎俩”，总体而言物价没有上涨得更多，也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地推高到远低于任何不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，市场利率对经济中真实的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系起到了什么信息作用，这并非没有道理。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借款。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了基于市场的资源分配和使用定价体系。任何人如何轻松知道有多少真正的储蓄可用于资助投资和其他贷款用途，而不会使经济严重失去平衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驶经济 “巨轮 ”确保国内生产总值增长、物价适度通胀和劳动力 “充分就业 ”为名，实际上是在以 “宏观经济 ”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的 “微观经济 ”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说他们想做的事情。<b>事实上，他们试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来实现其既定目标，这是在继续失衡并错误地 “扭曲 ”实体经济，从而导致不稳定，最终导致经济衰退和可能的物价上涨，而他们声称希望防止这种情况发生。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Jerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJerome Powell's Quest For Economic Stability Is Destabilizing<blockquote>杰罗姆·鲍威尔对经济稳定的追求正在破坏稳定</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:52</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:<i><b>“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”</b></i>Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.</p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席讲话时，金融市场会倾听，杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔举行的央行行长年会上的虚拟讲话也不例外。他们得到的是哈里·杜鲁门在听到他的经济顾问时抱怨的内容：<i><b>“一方面是'这个'，另一方面是'那个'。”</b></i>杜鲁门说，他迫切需要一个单手经济学家。</blockquote></p><p> After a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,<b>everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.</b></p><p><blockquote>在经历了十年大部分时间的总体经济平静之后，经济增长温和至合理，物价通胀相对较低，而且在冠状病毒封锁之前的 2020 年初，失业率处于半个世纪以来的最低水平，<b>面对过去一年半发生的一切，每个人现在都担心美联储在未来几个月和几年的货币和利率政策方面会有什么期待。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Whipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>国内生产总值和巨额政府支出</b></blockquote></p><p> After a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis&nbsp;(BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.</p><p><blockquote>在实际国内生产总值（GDP）从2019年第四季度的19.2万亿美元急剧下降至2020年第二季度的17.2万亿美元，即实际GDP在几个月内下降了9%之后，经济分析局（BEA）对2021年第二季度的最新修订估计是实际GDP达到19.36万亿美元。这比 2020 年的低点增加了 12.5%，目前的水平高于冠状病毒爆发前的高点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government&nbsp;expenditures&nbsp;came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.</b>By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.</p><p><blockquote><b>然而，值得记住的是，就实际私营部门活力而言，所有这些数字都被夸大了，因为2019年，联邦政府支出达到4.45万亿美元，占19.2万亿美元GDP总额的23%。</b>到2020年底，由于去年下半年联邦和州对美国经济大部分地区的封锁和关闭授权放松，实际GDP已恢复至18.76万亿美元，但联邦政府支出达到6.6万亿美元，占GDP总额的35%。仅在2021年上半年，在19.36万亿美元的GDP中，联邦支出已经占总额的5.86万亿美元，占30.2%。</blockquote></p><p> If government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.</p><p><blockquote>如果政府支出甚至部分从国内生产总值中扣除，以此作为美国经济 “健康状况 ”的虚假指标，那么由于山姆大叔除了从私营部门征收的税款或从金融市场借款之外没有什么可花的，那么私营经济的表现远没有国内生产总值数据所显示的那么好。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>滞后的失业率和不断上升的物价通胀</b></blockquote></p><p> After unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In&nbsp;July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.</p><p><blockquote>在2020年初失业率达到劳动力3.5%的低点后，由于政府下令停止大量经济活动，去年4月失业率上升至近15%。2021年7月，失业率降至劳动力的5.4%；但这仍然使其比 2020 年初的低点高出近 55%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>After the&nbsp;Consumer Price Index&nbsp;(CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在过去十年中，消费者价格指数（CPI）每年大多在1%至2%的相对狭窄范围内波动，2021年CPI在今年7月升至5.4%。某些子集团，如能源和二手车汽车行业，按年率计算增长达到两位数。</b></blockquote></p><p> With unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.</p><p><blockquote>由于失业率仍然居高不下，CPI 的涨幅明显高于十年来的年平均水平，鉴于供应链持续中断以及冠状病毒变异和新变异影响的不确定性，今年剩余时间内 GDP 将如何增长仍存在疑问，所有的目光和耳朵都转向了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）关于美联储货币和利率政策未来方向的声明。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的政策声明也许是这个，也许是那个</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>And what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!</b></p><p><blockquote><b>而他说的是，美联储理事会还没有决定该怎么做!</b></blockquote></p><p> On the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current&nbsp;monthly purchase&nbsp;of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，经济正在改善，因此，也许在今年年底之前，美联储将减少目前每月价值1200亿美元的资产购买——800亿美元的美国政府证券和400亿美元的抵押贷款支持证券。它可能会决定不再使用其政策工具将关键利率保持在接近于零的水平。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，由于供给侧问题，近期物价通胀可能只是暂时性的飙升，因此对物价上涨加速的担忧可能是错误的。因此，过快减少资产购买可能还为时过早，当然，在失业率再次降至更接近 “充分就业 ”标准基准的水平之前，任何可能缩短国家经济复苏的加息都必须谨慎。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.</p><p><blockquote>一方面，冠状病毒最糟糕的时期可能已经过去，因此通常的宏观经济衡量标准所反映的持续改善的道路上可能不会出现新的停工障碍。另一方面，病毒变种可能会阻碍通往完全恢复和增长的经济的平稳道路。因此，现在真正具体说明何时以及减少多少资产购买，或者这些利率将从目前接近于零的水平上调多少可能还为时过早。</blockquote></p><p> The Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席还表示，一方面，美联储领导层拥有丰富的经验和政策工具，可以让经济保持在稳健平稳的轨道上。另一方面，冠状病毒的影响和全球变暖给世界带来的威胁等因素是独一无二的，这使得制定美联储的政策路线成为一项独特的挑战。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Powell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle</b></p><p><blockquote><b>鲍威尔的沉默与政治商业周期</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>In other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.</b>Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.</p><p><blockquote><b>换句话说，杰罗姆·鲍威尔回避了任何直接的政策计划，因此为几乎每个人提供了一些东西，以缓解人们的恐惧和担忧，即要么政策脚在油门上停留太久，要么开始踩刹车太快。</b>要么他保持沉默是因为他对经济前景的真诚怀疑，要么他知道如何迎合白宫和国会的观众，他们将决定他是否被任命连任美联储理事会主席。毕竟，你不希望看起来像是在计划任何明确的政策举措，这些举措可能会威胁到参议员或众议员在2022年大选中的连任，或者激怒一位不想失去在国家立法机构中微弱多数席位的总统。</blockquote></p><p> That politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the&nbsp;“Political Economic Cycle”&nbsp;(<i>Kyklos</i>, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.</p><p><blockquote>至少自约翰·阿克曼（Johan Akerman，1896-1982）对“政治经济周期”的分析以来，一些经济学家就认识到，政治家和中央银行家对经济周期的各个阶段很敏感，因为它们可能会影响政治选举周期，从而影响他们对政策决策和方向的思考。<i>基克洛斯</i>1947年5月），他在书中追溯了在民主社会中观察到的由商业周期的各个阶段引起的执政政府的变化，以及政府中的人如何试图管理公共政策以维持他们的政治立场。</blockquote></p><p> Historically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th&nbsp;century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼说，从历史上看，纵观英国、美国、德国和瑞典等国从 19 世纪中叶到 1945 年的这段时期，分析结果可以总结如下： “在英国，所有普遍的经济萧条...都会导致内阁危机和执政党更迭...在美国，在 1865 年至 1945 年的 20 次选举中，有 16 次选举都涉及在经济萧条时期投票时改变政党控制权，而在繁荣时期投票时保住政党的职位”。</blockquote></p><p> Governments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)</p><p><blockquote>阿克曼还指出，各国政府试图 “稳定金融和经济状况，并可能在短期内成功做到这一点”。虽然他的文章中没有追求这一点，但事实是，造成 “繁荣 ”和导致 “萧条 ”的潜在环境通常是政府自己的政策。制作。“好时光 ”的货币和财政政策最终会引发经济危机，威胁到政治决策者的权力地位。因此，当经济衰退或萧条最终发生时，政府往往会在下一次选举中垮台。（第107页）</blockquote></p><p> <b>Interest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment</b></p><p><blockquote><b>利率应协调储蓄和投资</b></blockquote></p><p> But this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.</p><p><blockquote>但这触及了杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）关于美联储政策及其未来可能方向的声明中困境的真正本质。基本的假设是，中央银行可以而且应该试图管理货币体系和金融市场的利率水平，因此，试图对整个社会进行宏观管理。</blockquote></p><p> Let us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.</p><p><blockquote>让我们从利率开始。市场价格的作用是使供需双方达到协调平衡。价格通过有效地告知那些需要在供应方了解需求者想要什么以及他们愿意支付多少钱来获得它的价值来做到这一点；同时，价格告诉需求方供应商能够和愿意生产什么产品并提供销售，以及以什么价格反映了生产者将特定商品或服务推向市场的机会成本。市场这两个方面的竞争互动带来了它们之间的平衡。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是对借款人和贷款人做同样的事情。它是那些有兴趣并愿意推迟更直接地使用其拥有或控制的资源（以金钱表示）的人之间跨时间的资源使用交易，以换取那些有兴趣更直接地使用超出其自身能力的资源的人在未来支付溢价，以换取未来支付此类溢价。该溢价是利率，可能会随着贷款期限和延长贷款的风险因素而变化。</blockquote></p><p> The role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.</p><p><blockquote>利率的作用是协调储户的意愿和借款人的意愿。任何高于或低于此的利率都会分别导致储蓄超过投资需求或投资需求超过可用储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Manipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets</b></p><p><blockquote><b>操纵利率扭曲市场</b></blockquote></p><p> The crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.</p><p><blockquote>比如说，低于市场清算或协调水平的帽子价格之间的关键区别在于，短缺会导致一些有意愿的买家空手离开市场；但是，当美联储或任何央行希望操纵低于市场协调水平的利率时，它会用新创造的货币来填补缺口，这些货币可能会超过经济中的实际储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> This not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅导致交换媒介的单位数量增加，买方可以通过这种媒介表达对所需商品和服务的更大需求，而且总体上往往会对整体市场价格造成上行压力。它还影响相对价格和工资的结构，因为货币供应量的增加只能通过那些新货币的借款人希望购买和使用的特定商品、资源和服务的需求增加而进入经济。但这笔钱随后会转到另一组人手中；也就是说，那些向借款人出售这些商品、资源和服务的人。反过来，这第二个群体将他们从销售中获得的新钱花在他们希望增加需求的其他商品、资源和服务上。</blockquote></p><p> Step-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.</p><p><blockquote>随着时间的推移，新创造的货币逐步增加一套商品和服务的需求和价格，然后是另一套，然后是另一套，直到最后，原则上，所有成品和生产要素的价格都会在序列的不同时间受到不同程度的影响，只要货币通货膨胀过程继续下去，相对利润率和就业机会就会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> This also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.</p><p><blockquote>这也意味着，每当货币扩张停止或放缓，甚至可能未能加速时，由于货币进入经济和被花费的方式而产生的劳动力、资源和资本设备的模式使用就开始分崩离析。这引发了一个重新调整过程，在这个过程中，人们发现一旦通货膨胀过程结束，劳动力、资本和资源就会被分配和用于不可持续的用途。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美联储的货币扩张和银行储备伎俩</b></blockquote></p><p> For over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the&nbsp;Monetary Base&nbsp;(loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.</p><p><blockquote>十多年来，自2008-2009年金融和住房危机以来，美联储一直在大幅扩大货币供应量。2008年1月，货币基础（银行体系中的可贷准备金加上一般流通中的货币）相当于8370亿美元；到2014年8月，货币基础已经扩大到4万亿美元以上。2020年2月，就在冠状病毒危机在政府强制封锁和关闭方面影响美国之前，它仍然处于3.45万亿美元的历史高位；但到2021年7月，货币基础达到6.13万亿美元，仅在过去一年半就增长了近78%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.</b>As a result, as of&nbsp;July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve&nbsp;pays&nbsp;those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.</p><p><blockquote><b>为什么通过银行系统的货币供应量如此巨大地增加，却没有出现预期的普遍物价上涨？因为美联储一直在付钱给银行，不要完全借出他们可以支配的可贷储备。</b>因此，截至 2021 年 7 月，银行持有约 3.9 万亿美元的 “超额准备金”（即高于美联储最低规定的准备金，要求银行持有储户可能提取现金），美联储向这些银行支付 0.15% 的利率。换句话说，63%的货币基础被排除在活跃的贷款市场之外。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Given that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于美国实际国内生产总值自 2010 年以来增长了 25% 以上，而货币流通速度（货币在每一段时间内的交易周转次数）在过去十年左右的时间里下降了近 40%，考虑到这些抵消因素，再加上美联储付钱给银行，让银行不要把过去十年公开市场操作创造的巨额银行储备全部放出去的 “伎俩”，总体而言物价没有上涨得更多，也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Markets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>即使价格通胀较低，市场仍然扭曲</b></blockquote></p><p> It is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，通过持续大量购买美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，市场利率被人为地推高到远低于任何不以这种方式操纵的金融市场的利率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>在这种情况下，市场利率对经济中真实的潜在储蓄和投资借贷关系起到了什么信息作用，这并非没有道理。美联储的货币和利率政策破坏了任何合理准确的跨期价格来协调储蓄和借款。</b></blockquote></p><p> Another way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?</p><p><blockquote>另一种说法是，美联储的货币中央计划实际上废除了基于市场的资源分配和使用定价体系。任何人如何轻松知道有多少真正的储蓄可用于资助投资和其他贷款用途，而不会使经济严重失去平衡？</blockquote></p><p> In the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.</p><p><blockquote>杰罗姆-鲍威尔（Jerome Powell）和他的美联储董事会成员以试图驾驶经济 “巨轮 ”确保国内生产总值增长、物价适度通胀和劳动力 “充分就业 ”为名，实际上是在以 “宏观经济 ”稳定的名义扭曲一系列相互关联的 “微观经济 ”关系，为最终的经济衰退埋下伏笔。</blockquote></p><p> When the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.<b>By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.</b></p><p><blockquote>当美联储主席谨慎地暗示美国央行行长们不确定他们要做什么时，那是因为他们不能做他们说他们想做的事情。<b>事实上，他们试图通过他们所掌握的货币和利率政策工具来实现其既定目标，这是在继续失衡并错误地 “扭曲 ”实体经济，从而导致不稳定，最终导致经济衰退和可能的物价上涨，而他们声称希望防止这种情况发生。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/economics/jerome-powells-quest-economic-stability-destabilizing","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138372877","content_text":"When the chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank speaks the financial markets listen, and this was no different with Jerome Powell’s virtual address to the annual meeting of central bankers at Jackson Hole, Wyoming. What they got is what Harry Truman complained about when hearing from his economic advisors:“On the one hand, ‘this,’ but on the other hand, ‘that’.”Truman said that he desperately wanted a one-handed economist.\nAfter a decade of general economic calm most of the time, with modest to reasonable growth, relatively low price inflation, and, at the beginning of 2020 before the Coronavirus lockdowns, unemployment at its lowest level in half a century,everyone is now worried about what to expect from the Federal Reserve in terms of monetary and interest rate policy in the months and years ahead in the face of all that has been happening for the last year and a half.\nWhipsaw GDP and Huge Government Expenditures\nAfter a staggering decline in real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $19.2 trillion in the fourth quarter of 2019 to $17.2 trillion in the second quarter of 2020, or a 9 percent decrease of real GDP in a matter of a few months, the latest revised estimate by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) for the second quarter of 2021 is that real GDP reached $19.36 trillion. This was a 12.5 percent increase over its 2020 low, and a level now above its pre-Coronavirus high.\nIt is worth keeping in mind, however, that all of these numbers are exaggerated in terms of real private sector vibrancy because in 2019, federal government expenditures came to $4.45 trillion, or 23 percent of that $19.2 trillion GDP total.By the end of 2020, due to the relaxing of the federal and state lockdown and shutdown mandates over much of the U.S. economy in the second half of last year, real GDP had recovered to $18.76 trillion, but federal government expenditures came to $6.6 trillion, or 35 percent of that total GDP. And just in the first half of 2021, out of that $19.36 trillion GDP, federal spending has already been $5.86 trillion of that total, or 30.2 percent.\nIf government spending is even partly discounted from GDP as a false indicator of the economic “health” of the U.S., since Uncle Sam has nothing to spend other than what it either first taxes away from the private sector or has borrowed from the financial markets, the private economy is far from doing as well as the GDP numbers suggest.\nLagging Unemployment and Rising Price Inflation\nAfter unemployment had reached a low of 3.5 percent of the labor force at the start of 2020, it rose to almost 15 percent in April of last year, due to the government-commanded halt of a huge amount of economic activity. In July 2021, unemployment had declined to 5.4 percent of the labor force; but this still left it almost 55 percent above its low at the beginning of 2020.\nAfter the Consumer Price Index (CPI) mostly fluctuated in a relatively narrow range of between one and two percent, annually, over the last ten years, 2021 has seen the CPI increase to 5.4 percent in July of this year. Certain subgroups, such as energy and used car automotive sectors increased in double digit ranges on an annualized basis.\nWith unemployment still considered high, with the CPI increasing noticeably above the decade-long annual average, and question marks concerning how GDP will grow for the remainder of this year, given continuing supply-chain disruptions and uncertainties about the impact of variations and new mutations of the Coronavirus, all eyes and ears turned to Jerome Powell’s pronouncements about the future direction of Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy.\nPowell’s Maybe This, Maybe That, Policy Pronouncement\nAnd what he said was that the Federal Reserve Board of Governors has not decided what to do!\nOn the one hand, the economy is improving so, perhaps, before the end of the year, the Fed will reduce its current monthly purchase of $120 billion worth of assets – $80 billion of U.S. government securities, and $40 billion of mortgage-backed securities. And it may decide that it is time to no longer use its policy tools to keep key interest rates close to zero.\nOn the other hand, recent price inflation may only be a transitory spurt due to supply-side problems, so the concern about accelerating price increases may be misplaced. Therefore, it may be premature to reduce asset purchases too quickly and certainly it is necessary to be cautious in any nudging up of interest rates that might cut short the national economic recovery before unemployment has been reduced, once again, to a level closer to standard benchmarks of “full employment.”\nOn the one hand, the worst of the Coronavirus may have passed, so there may be no new shutdown hurdles in the way of continuing improvement as reflected in the usual macroeconomic measurements. On the other hand, virus variants may prevent a smooth path to a fully restored and growing economy. So, it may be too soon to really specify when and by how much asset purchases will be reduced or by how much those interest rates will be raised from their current near zero levels.\nThe Fed Chairman also said that, on the one hand, the Fed leadership has plenty of experience and policy tools to keep the economy on a sound and even path. On the other hand, such things as the impact of the Coronavirus and the threats facing the world from global warming are unique, making charting the Fed policy course a distinct challenge.\nPowell’s Reticence and the Political Business Cycle\nIn other words, Jerome Powell evaded any straightforward policy program, and therefore offered something for almost everyone, in terms of easing fears and concerns that either the policy foot will stay too long where it is on the accelerator or will start putting on the brakes too quickly.Either he is being reticent due to honest doubts about what he thinks is ahead for the economy, or he knows how to play to the audience in the White House and in Congress who will decide whether or not he is appointed for a second term as chairman of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. After all, you don’t want to seem to be planning any clear policy moves that might threaten the reelection of Senators or Congressmen in the 2022 elections, or antagonize a president who does not want to lose his thin majority in the national legislature.\nThat politicians and central bankers are sensitive to the phases of the business cycle as they may impact the political electoral cycle in thinking about their policy decisions and directions has been understood by some economists at least since Johan Akerman’s (1896-1982) analysis of the “Political Economic Cycle” (Kyklos, May 1947), in which he traced out observed changes in those running governments in democratic societies resulting from the phases in the business cycle, and how those in government attempt to manage public policy to maintain their political positions.\nHistorically, Akerman said, looking over the period from the mid-19th century to 1945 in countries like Great Britain, the United States, Germany, and Sweden, the result of the analysis could be summarized in the following way: “All general economic depressions in England . . . lead to cabinet crises and a change of the party in power . . . In the United States the presidential elections as a rule involve a change in party control when votes are cast during a depression and a maintenance of the party in office when the votes are cast during periods of prosperity,” in sixteen of the twenty elections between 1865 and 1945.\nGovernments, Akerman also pointed out, try “to stabilize financial and economic conditions, and for a brief period may succeed in doing so.” While not pursuing it in his article, the fact is that the underlying circumstances that create “booms” that result in “busts” are usually of the government’s own policy. making. The “good times” monetary and fiscal policies finally create the economic crises that threaten the political policy-makers’ positions in authority. Hence, a government’s frequent demise in the next election when a recession or depression finally occurs. (p. 107)\nInterest Rates Should Coordinate Savings and Investment\nBut this gets to the real essence of the dilemma in Jerome Powell’s statement of Federal Reserve policy and its possible future direction. The underlying presumption is that a central bank can and should be attempting to manage the monetary system and the level of interest rates in the financial markets and, therefore, trying to macro-manage the society as a whole.\nLet us start with interest rates. The role of market prices is to bring into coordinated balance the two sides of demand and supply. Prices do so by effectively informing those needing to know on the supply side what is it that demanders want and the value they place upon it in terms of what they are willing to pay to get it; prices, at the same time, inform demanders what suppliers can and are willing to produce and offer for sale, and at what price reflecting the producer’s opportunity costs of bringing a particular good or service to market. The competitive interaction of those two sides of the market brings about the balance between them.\nThe role of interest rates is to do the same for borrowers and lenders. It is the trading of the use of resources across time between those who are interested and willing to defer the more immediate use of resources (expressed in money) in their possession or under their control, in return for a premium in the future from those interested in more immediate uses of those resources beyond their own capacity in exchange for paying such a premium in the future. That premium is the rate of interest, which may vary with the duration of the loan and risk elements in extending it.\nThe role of the rate of interest is to coordinate the willingness of savers with the desires of borrowers. Any rate of interest above or below this results in, respectively, an excess of savings over investment demand or an excess of investment demand over available savings.\nManipulating Interests Rates Distorts Markets\nThe crucial difference between a price, say, for hats that is set below the market-clearing, or coordinating, level is that a shortage results with some willing buyers leaving the market empty-handed; but when the Federal Reserve, or any central bank, wishes to manipulate interest rates below the market coordinating level, it fills the gap with newly created money with which loans may be extended in excess of actual savings in the economy.\nThis not only results in an increase in the number of units of the medium of exchange through which buyers can express their greater demand for desired goods and services, tending, in general, to place upward pressure on overall market prices. It also influences the structure of relative prices and wages, since increases in the supply of money can only enter the economy through the increased demand for the particular goods, resources, and services those borrowers of that new money wish to purchase and use. But the money is then passed to another group of hands; that is, those who have sold those goods, resources and services to the borrowers. This second group, in turn, spends the new money that they have received from sales on other goods, resources and services for which they wish to increase their demand.\nStep-by-step, in a patterned sequence through time, the newly created money increases the demands and the prices of one set of goods and services, and then another, and then another, until, finally, in principle, all prices for finished goods and the factors of production will have been impacted to one degree or another, at different times in the sequence, with changes in relative profit margins and employment opportunities for as long as the monetary inflationary process continues.\nThis also means that whenever the monetary expansion stops or slows down, or even, perhaps, fails to accelerate, the resulting patterned use of labor, resources, and capital equipment brought into existence due to the way the money has entered into the economy and is being spent, period-after-period, begins to fall apart. This precipitates a readjustment process during which it is discovered that labor, capital and resources have been directed into allocated and applied for uses that are unsustainable once the inflationary process comes to an end.\nThe Fed’s Monetary Expansion and Bank Reserve Tricks\nFor over ten years, since the financial and housing crisis of 2008-2009, the Federal Reserve has been dramatically expanding the money supply. In January 2008, the Monetary Base (loanable reserves in the banking system plus currency in general circulation) equaled $837 billion; by August 2014, the Monetary Base had been expanded to over $4 trillion. In February 2020, just before the Coronavirus crisis impacted the U.S. in terms of the government mandated lockdowns and shutdowns, it still was historically high at $3.45 trillion; but by July 2021, the Monetary Base stood at $6.13 trillion, or a nearly 78 percent increase just in the last year and a half.\nWhy has there not been the expected general price inflation from such a huge increase in the money supply through the banking system? Because the Federal Reserve has been paying banks not to fully lend the loanable reserves at their disposal.As a result, as of July 2021, banks were holding “excess reserves,” (that is, reserves above the minimum Federal Reserve rules require banks to hold against possible cash withdrawals by their depositors), of around $3.9 trillion, upon which the Federal Reserve pays those banks an interest rate of 0.15 percent. In other words, 63 percent of the Monetary Base is being held off the active loan market.\nGiven that real GDP in the United States has increased by over 25 percent since 2010, and the velocity of circulation of money (number of times money turns over in transactions per period of time), has decreased by almost 40 percent over the last ten years or so, it is not too surprising that prices in general have not been rising more, or more rapidly, given these countervailing factors, plus the Federal Reserve’s “trick” of paying banks to not lend all the huge amount of bank reserves their open market operations have created during the past decade.\nMarkets Still Distorted, Even with Low Price Inflation\nIt is nonetheless the case, that through its continuing large purchases of U.S. treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, market interest rates have been artificially pushed significantly below any rates of interest that would prevail on financial markets not manipulated in this manner.\nIt is not unreasonable to ask what informational role market interest rates have been even playing about the real underlying savings and investment borrowing relationship in the economy in such a setting. Federal Reserve monetary and interest rate policy has undermined any reasonably accurate intertemporal price to coordinate saving with borrowing.\nAnother way of saying this is that the Federal Reserve’s monetary central planning has virtually abolished a market-based pricing system for the allocation and use of resources across time. How can anyone easily know what real savings is available to fund investment and other loan uses in a way that is not throwing the economy out of serious balance?\nIn the name of trying to steer the economic “ship” to assure growing GDP, moderate price inflation, and “full employment” of the labor force, Jerome Powell and his fellow Fed Board members are, in fact, setting the stage for an eventual economic downturn by distorting a series of interconnected “microeconomic” relationships in the name of “macroeconomic” stability.\nWhen the Fed chairman cautiously suggests that the American central bankers are not sure what they are going to do, it is because they cannot do what they say they want to do.By trying to pursue their declared goals through the monetary and interest rate policy tools at their disposal, they are, in fact, continuing to imbalance and wrongly “twist” the real economy in ways that will result in the instability, and the eventual recession and likely price inflation they say they wish to prevent.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204433,"gmtCreate":1630965777822,"gmtModify":1631891649785,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204433","repostId":"1183504703","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1183504703","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630932846,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1183504703?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 20:54","market":"fut","language":"en","title":"Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1183504703","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline i","content":"<p><u><b>Commodities Tie the Year Together</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大宗商品将这一年联系在一起</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply</b>. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation.&nbsp;Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.</p><p><blockquote><b>对于许多投资者来说，2021 年比主要指数所暗示的要艰难</b>. 在这一年里，'ESG'和'量化'仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在这一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的争论几乎一直在进行。大宗商品恰好是所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start with the challenging year.&nbsp;<b>The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.</b></p><p><blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。<b>这位不经意的观察者认为 2021 年是一次漫步，截至 9 月 1 日，全球股市回报率为 16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>But under the surface, it’s been hard</b>. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote><b>但在表面之下，这很艰难</b>. 在美国股市这样一个 “良好 ”的市场中，情况一直很艰难，因为美国股市的重大轮动导致了相对表现的急剧波动（美国小盘股在 3 月中旬上涨了 20%，此后一直在走低）。全球股市表现不佳，MSCI 中国指数自 2 月 14 日以来已下跌 26%，而 MSCI 欧洲指数同期上涨 14%。许多活跃的经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a&nbsp;Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从数量上看，这可能是利率和外汇更加艰难的一年。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在特定时刻的表现进行系统性投资。演员阵容问道：“如果我做的是市场上历史上行之有效的事情，根据目前的信息，我该怎么做？”</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes.&nbsp;Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现更差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote></p><p> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:</p><p><blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统性投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都要好（信贷次之）。为什么？我们有几个理论：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>大宗商品变动周期更长的趋势意味着动能更有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流动也更加平静），让更多 “正常 ”的动态得以发挥。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于量化投资和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。在可能的情况下，去这些类型的策略起作用的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG.&nbsp;The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the&nbsp;release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品还与第二个大投资主题ESG息息相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性仍然不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，气候变化看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管与 ESG 相关的股票在 2021 年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote></p><p> The price for&nbsp;EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see&nbsp;Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格（MO1 Comdty）今年迄今已上涨 88%。我的同事罗伯特-普林（Robert Pulleyn）一直认为，提高排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。短期内，鉴于最近的涨幅，他认为在价格到 2027 年恢复上升趋势至 102 欧元/吨之前，存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在 2021 年 8 月 9 日 3 月恢复上涨之前）。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see&nbsp;Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年的油价更高而不是更低？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少其资本支出计划，我的同事 Martijn Rats 认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格上涨（参见播客 | 市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例、电动汽车和石油，2021 年 9 月 2 日）。</blockquote></p><p> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is&nbsp;the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?</p><p><blockquote>ESG和系统化投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021 年的情况比头条指数所显示的要艰难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通货膨胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有什么看法？</blockquote></p><p> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,<b>recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022</b>.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格往往是通货膨胀的代名词，但我们的预测表明，大宗商品价格现在将发挥更小的作用。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（租金增长在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。然而，<b>近期大宗商品价格的稳定应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计总体通胀将在 2022 年中期放缓</b>.</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.<b>Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the&nbsp;US&nbsp;and&nbsp;China</b>(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。<b>我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济将放缓</b>（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和 CRB RIND 指数是周期性走强的两个关键先兆，它们仍然处于高位，这与这种经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为 9 月份公布的 8 月份数据可能看起来很差，并考验市场的决心。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Morgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMorgan Stanley: Commodities Find Themselves At The Center Of 2021's Most Important Stories<blockquote>摩根士丹利：大宗商品发现自己处于 2021 年最重要故事的中心</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 20:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Commodities Tie the Year Together</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>大宗商品将这一年联系在一起</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <b>2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply</b>. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation.&nbsp;Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.</p><p><blockquote><b>对于许多投资者来说，2021 年比主要指数所暗示的要艰难</b>. 在这一年里，'ESG'和'量化'仍然是投资界的关键结构性趋势。在这一年里，关于增长和通胀前景的争论几乎一直在进行。大宗商品恰好是所有这些故事的中心。</blockquote></p><p> Let’s start with the challenging year.&nbsp;<b>The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.</b></p><p><blockquote>让我们从充满挑战的一年开始。<b>这位不经意的观察者认为 2021 年是一次漫步，截至 9 月 1 日，全球股市回报率为 16%，波动性处于历史低位，这是情有可原的。</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>But under the surface, it’s been hard</b>. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.</p><p><blockquote><b>但在表面之下，这很艰难</b>. 在美国股市这样一个 “良好 ”的市场中，情况一直很艰难，因为美国股市的重大轮动导致了相对表现的急剧波动（美国小盘股在 3 月中旬上涨了 20%，此后一直在走低）。全球股市表现不佳，MSCI 中国指数自 2 月 14 日以来已下跌 26%，而 MSCI 欧洲指数同期上涨 14%。许多活跃的经理落后于他们的基准。</blockquote></p><p> Yet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a&nbsp;Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从数量上看，这可能是利率和外汇更加艰难的一年。我们运行跨资产系统交易工具（CAST），旨在确定哪些因素对跨资产表现至关重要，并根据这些因素在特定时刻的表现进行系统性投资。演员阵容问道：“如果我做的是市场上历史上行之有效的事情，根据目前的信息，我该怎么做？”</blockquote></p><p> Year-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes.&nbsp;Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.</p><p><blockquote>今年迄今为止，与所有其他资产类别相比，遵循这些历史模式导致利率和外汇表现更差。历史模式在哪里做得更好？商品。好多了。</blockquote></p><p> Investing systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:</p><p><blockquote>基于有吸引力的因素（利差、动量、估值、支持性基本面）进行系统性投资，在大宗商品中的效果比任何其他资产类别都要好（信贷次之）。为什么？我们有几个理论：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Natural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>商品市场的自然低效率会产生风险溢价。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>The tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.</p><p><blockquote><li>大宗商品变动周期更长的趋势意味着动能更有效。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li><b>Central banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.</b></p><p><blockquote><li><b>各国央行没有干预这些市场（投资者流动也更加平静），让更多 “正常 ”的动态得以发挥。</b></li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> Given the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于量化投资和系统投资作为投资管理主题的突出地位，这一点非常重要。在可能的情况下，去这些类型的策略起作用的地方。</blockquote></p><p> Commodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG.&nbsp;The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the&nbsp;release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.</p><p><blockquote>大宗商品还与第二个大投资主题ESG息息相关。气候变化的潜在现实和严重性仍然不变，事实上，在政府间气候变化专门委员会（IPCC）发布报告后，气候变化看起来更加紧迫。然而，尽管与 ESG 相关的股票在 2021 年出现了明显波动，但大宗商品市场传递了更加一致的信息。</blockquote></p><p> The price for&nbsp;EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see&nbsp;Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>例如，欧盟碳排放价格（MO1 Comdty）今年迄今已上涨 88%。我的同事罗伯特-普林（Robert Pulleyn）一直认为，提高排放价格对于实现欧盟的气候目标至关重要。短期内，鉴于最近的涨幅，他认为在价格到 2027 年恢复上升趋势至 102 欧元/吨之前，存在下跌风险（参见公用事业：碳：未来的疲软风险？在 2021 年 8 月 9 日 3 月恢复上涨之前）。</blockquote></p><p> Wait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see&nbsp;Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).</p><p><blockquote>等等，你可能会说。如果大宗商品市场如此关注气候变化的现实，为什么今年的油价更高而不是更低？同样，我们认为市场实际上是相当理性的。股东压力和未来电动汽车采用的威胁正在导致石油生产商大幅减少其资本支出计划，我的同事 Martijn Rats 认为这一发展将有助于限制供应并保持价格上涨（参见播客 | 市场思考：挪威的奇怪案例、电动汽车和石油，2021 年 9 月 2 日）。</blockquote></p><p> ESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is&nbsp;the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?</p><p><blockquote>ESG和系统化投资是主要的行业主题。我们都知道，2021 年的情况比头条指数所显示的要艰难。但今年最大的新闻是围绕增长和通货膨胀的辩论。公平地说，大宗商品对此有什么看法？</blockquote></p><p> While commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,<b>recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022</b>.</p><p><blockquote>虽然大宗商品价格往往是通货膨胀的代名词，但我们的预测表明，大宗商品价格现在将发挥更小的作用。价格最大的下行风险可能来自核心商品（需求远高于趋势），而最大的上行风险可能来自租金增长（租金增长在篮子中占很大份额，而且强劲）。然而，<b>近期大宗商品价格的稳定应该会强化总体通胀的暂时性，我们的经济学家预计总体通胀将在 2022 年中期放缓</b>.</blockquote></p><p></p><p> On the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.<b>Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the&nbsp;US&nbsp;and&nbsp;China</b>(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.</p><p><blockquote>然而，在增长辩论中，大宗商品是前沿和中心。<b>我们的经济学家预计美国和中国第三季度经济将放缓</b>（但不是欧洲，这是另一个时间的故事）。铜价和 CRB RIND 指数是周期性走强的两个关键先兆，它们仍然处于高位，这与这种经济疲软将是暂时的观点一致。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/addcaef8407fdc8cf9f4efb87956bf0d\" tg-width=\"1258\" tg-height=\"650\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.</p><p><blockquote>我们将关注这些指标的弹性，因为 9 月份公布的 8 月份数据可能看起来很差，并考验市场的决心。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/morgan-stanley-commodities-find-themselves-center-all-2021s-most-important-stories","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1183504703","content_text":"Commodities Tie the Year Together\n2021 has been a harder year for many investors than the headline indices imply. It’s been a year where ‘ESG’ and ‘Quant’ remain key structural trends in the investment community. And it’s been a year that has seen an almost constant, running debate over the outlook for growth and inflation. Commodities, it just so happens, find themselves at the center of all these stories.\nLet’s start with the challenging year. The casual observer could be forgiven for thinking that 2021 has been a walk in the park, with global equities returning 16% through September 1, with historically low volatility.\nBut under the surface, it’s been hard. It’s been hard in a ‘good’ market like US equities, where major rotations have led to sharp swings in relative performance (US small caps rose +20% through mid-March, and are lower since). And it’s been hard in global equities, where MSCI China has fallen 26% since February 14, while MSCI Europe is up 14% over the same period. Many active managers are lagging their benchmarks.\nYet quantitatively, it may be an even harder year in rates and FX. We run a Cross-Asset Systematic Trading tool, or CAST, which aims to identify what factors matter for cross-asset performance, and systematically invest based on how those factors look at a given moment. CAST asks “if I do what has historically worked in the market, given current information, what should I do?”.\nYear-to-date, following these historical patterns has led to poorer outcomes in interest rates and FX compared with all other asset classes. Where have historical patterns done better? Commodities. A lot better.\nInvesting systematically based on attractive factors (carry, momentum, valuation, supportive fundamentals) has been working better in commodities than any other asset class (credit is second). Why? We have a few theories:\n\nNatural inefficiencies in the commodity market create risk premium.\nThe tendency of commodities to move in longer cycles means that momentum is more effective.\nCentral banks aren’t intervening in these markets (and investor flows have been more muted), allowing more ‘normal’ dynamics to play out.\n\nGiven the prominence of quant and systematic investing as themes in investment management, this is pretty important. To the extent one can, go where these types of strategies are working.\nCommodities also tie into a second big investment theme, ESG. The underlying reality and seriousness of climate change remains constant, and indeed, looks even more pressing following the release from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Yet while ESG-linked equities have seen pronounced swings in 2021, commodity markets have delivered a far more consistent message.\nThe price for EU Carbon emissions, for example (MO1 Comdty), has risen 88% year-to-date. My colleague Robert Pulleyn has been bullish on the belief that a higher price on emissions is essential to meet the EU’s climate goals. Near term, he sees the risk of a decline given recent gains, before prices resume their upward trend toward €102/ton by 2027 (see Utilities: Carbon: Softness Risk Ahead? Before Upwards March Resumes, August 9, 2021).\nWait, you might say. If commodity markets are so focused on the realities of climate change, why are oil prices higher this year, not lower? Again, we think the market is actually pretty rational. Shareholder pressure and the threat of future EV adoption is causing oil producers to dramatically reduce their capex plans, a development that my colleague Martijn Rats believes will help limit supply and keep prices elevated (see Podcast | Thoughts on the Market: The Curious Case of Norway, EVs and Oil, September 2, 2021).\nESG and systematic investing are major industry themes. 2021 being harder than the headline indices suggest is something we’re all aware of. But the biggest story of the year is the debate around growth and inflation. What, it seems fair to say, do commodities have to say about that?\nWhile commodity prices are often synonymous with inflation, our forecasts suggest they’ll now play a smaller role. The biggest downside risk to prices is likely to come from core goods (where demand has been well-above trend), while the biggest risk to the upside is likely to come from rental growth (which is a large share of the basket, and strong). Nonetheless,recent stabilization in commodity prices should reinforce the transitory nature of headline inflation, which our economists expect to moderate into mid-2022.\nOn the growth debate, however, commodities are front and center.Our economists see a 3Q slowdown in both the US and China(but not Europe, which is a story for another time). Copper prices and the CRB RIND index, two key harbingers of cyclical strength, remain high, consistent with a view that this economic weakness will be temporary.\n\nWe’ll be watching the resilience of these indicators as August data, reported in September, may look poor, and test the market's resolve.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2907,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204674,"gmtCreate":1630965750398,"gmtModify":1631891649793,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204674","repostId":"1143325200","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1143325200","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630882610,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1143325200?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 06:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1143325200","media":"Barrons","summary":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then feat","content":"<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债券市场周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几项值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，随后是周四的国际报纸和周五的克罗格。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日活动。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者进行交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日活动。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的 8 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的一致估计是，总体指数每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 每月上涨 0.5%，这不包括波动性更大的食品和能源价格。7 月份核心指数和总体指数均上涨 1%。8 月份消费者价格指数将于下周，即 9 月 14 日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个央行辖区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行周四也将宣布货币政策决定，但外界普遍预计将把目标利率维持在当前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告7月份消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行宣布货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论盈利。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>GameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGameStop, Moderna, Home Depot, Kroger, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>游戏驿站、Moderna、家得宝、克罗格等投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 06:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和债券市场周一因劳动节休市。假期缩短的一周将发布几项值得注意的公司更新和经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> GameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its&nbsp;$21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle&nbsp;hosts&nbsp;an investor day on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica将于周三发布季度业绩，随后是周四的国际报纸和周五的克罗格。Analog Devices刚刚以210亿美元收购Maxim Integrated Products，将于周三举办投资者日活动。Moderna、丹纳赫和家得宝管理层也将于周四与投资者进行交谈。最后，雅宝将于周五举办投资者日活动。</blockquote></p><p> The economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.</p><p><blockquote>本周的经济数据亮点将是周五美国劳工统计局公布的 8 月份生产者价格指数。经济学家的一致估计是，总体指数每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 每月上涨 0.5%，这不包括波动性更大的食品和能源价格。7 月份核心指数和总体指数均上涨 1%。8 月份消费者价格指数将于下周，即 9 月 14 日公布。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>周二，美联储将发布最新的褐皮书，其中包含十几个央行辖区的经济、招聘和商业状况的最新信息。欧洲央行周四也将宣布货币政策决定，但外界普遍预计将把目标利率维持在当前负0.5%的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Stock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote>股票和固定收益市场因劳动节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote>劳工统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote>美联储报告7月份消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> The European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote>欧洲央行宣布货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> The Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote>劳工部报告了截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> The BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote>BLS报告8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格评级召开会议讨论盈利。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","HD":"家得宝","KR":"克罗格","GME":"游戏驿站","MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/gamestop-moderna-home-depot-kroger-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51630853023?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1143325200","content_text":"U.S. stock and bond markets are closed on Monday for Labor Day. The holiday-shortened week then features several notable company updates and economic data releases.\nGameStop and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results on Wednesday, followed by International Paper on Thursday and Kroger on Friday. Analog Devices—fresh off of its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products—will host an investor day on Wednesday. Moderna, Danaher, and Home Depot managements will also speak with investors on Thursday. Finally, Albemarle hosts an investor day on Friday.\nThe economic data highlight of the week will be Friday’s August producer price index from the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Economists’ consensus estimate is for a 0.6% monthly rise in the headline index, and a 0.5% increase for the core PPI—which leaves out more volatile food and energy prices. Both the core and headline indexes rose 1% in July. The August consumer price index will be out the following week, on Sept. 14.\nOn Tuesday, the Federal Reserve will release its latest beige book, full of updates on economic, hiring, and business conditions in each of the dozen central bank districts. The European Central Bank also announces a monetary-policy decision on Thursday, but is widely expected to hold its target interest rate at its current level of negative 0.5%.\nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reports the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"KR":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"GME":0.9,"HD":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MRNA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3200,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204160,"gmtCreate":1630965730550,"gmtModify":1631891649799,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204160","repostId":"1158349328","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158349328","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630913486,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1158349328?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-06 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158349328","media":"Barron's","summary":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like","content":"<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy 2021 Is the Kind of Year to Banish the September Stock Blues<blockquote>为什么 2021 年是消除 9 月份股市忧郁的一年</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-06 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.</p><p><blockquote>众所周知，股市在 9 月份表现不佳。但在2021年这样的年份，情况可能不一定如此。</blockquote></p><p> Since 1928, the average September return for the S&amp;P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&amp;P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.</p><p><blockquote>自1928年以来，标普500 9月份的平均回报率为0.99%。这使得本月比 5 月份糟糕得多，5 月份的平均跌幅为 0.11%，在投资者悲观情绪中排名第二。但这里有一个警告。历史还发现，在今年早些时候强劲上涨之后的9月份往往会有正回报。根据 Fundstrat 的数据，当标普500在前六个月上涨超过 13% 时，自 1928 年以来 9 月份的涨幅中值为 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> Over that 93-year span, the S&amp;P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&amp;P 500 rallied 14%.</p><p><blockquote>在这93年的时间里，标准普尔指数在9月份下跌了54%。但当市场从 1 月到 6 月上涨时，9 月份有 63% 的股票出现正增长。截至今年6月，标普500上涨了14%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc9b7962b08fe42d27d182d586cf20e4\" tg-width=\"778\" tg-height=\"440\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">A similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&amp;P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&amp;P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.</p><p><blockquote>类似的趋势也适用于这一年。Wells Fargo 的策略师最近将标普500的目标上调至较当前价格上涨 6% 以上的水平。他们使用 1990 年的数据表示，在标准普尔指数前 8 个月实现两位数百分比增长的年份，到年底还会上涨 8%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/23718a745d8c03556be0411afdf1af64\" tg-width=\"792\" tg-height=\"438\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The S&amp;P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&amp;P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.</p><p><blockquote>标普500周四收于4523点，8月份迄今上涨20.4%。但是要注意一件事：旅程可能会很颠簸。标普500今年的回调幅度没有超过 5%。随着风险的出现——德尔塔变异毒株、通货膨胀、高估值，甚至公司税的增加——股票很容易修正。“Fundstrat 研究主管汤姆-李（Tom Lee）写道：”市场'超买'，即将出现回调。也许吧，但如果这个市场不敌九月的忧郁，也不要感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This&nbsp;Week&nbsp;</b></p><p><blockquote><b>本周</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 9/6</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/6星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Stock and fixed-income</b> markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.</p><p><blockquote><b>股票和固定收益</b>为纪念劳动节，市场关闭。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 9/7</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二 9/7</b></blockquote></p><p> Casey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Casey's General Stores 和 Coupa Software 公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 9/8</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三 9/8</b></blockquote></p><p> Copart, GameStop,&nbsp;and Lululemon Athletica&nbsp;release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>Copart、游戏驿站和Lululemon Athletica发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices 召开电话会议，讨论其资本分配计划并更新其 2021 财年展望。该公司最近完成了对 Maxim Integrated Products 的 210 亿美元收购。</blockquote></p><p> Global Payments, Johnson Controls International,&nbsp;and ResMed&nbsp;hold virtual investor days.</p><p><blockquote>Global Payments、江森自控国际公司和瑞思迈公司举办虚拟投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Labor</b>&nbsp;Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工局</b>统计局发布职位空缺和劳动力流动调查。普遍估计7月最后一个工作日将有1000万个职位空缺。6月份，开业人数为1010万人，连续第四个月创纪录。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>报告7月份的消费信贷数据。6 月份未偿消费者债务总额增加 377 亿美元，达到创纪录的 4.32 万亿美元。第二季度，经季节性调整后的消费信贷年率为 8.8%，反映了被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Reserve</b> releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.</p><p><blockquote><b>美联储</b>今年八次中的第六次发布褐皮书。该报告总结了12个美联储区当前的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 9/9</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 9/9</b></blockquote></p><p> Home Depot&nbsp;hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.</p><p><blockquote>家得宝（Home Depot）召开了一次电话会议，讨论其 ESG 战略，由公司首席可持续发展官罗恩-贾维斯（Ron Jarvis）主持。</blockquote></p><p> Moderna hosts its fifth annual R&amp;D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.</p><p><blockquote>Moderna 举办第五届年度研发日，讨论公司正在研发的疫苗。首席执行官 Stéphane Bancel 将是演讲者之一。</blockquote></p><p> Danaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.</p><p><blockquote>丹纳赫召开投资者和分析师会议，由其首席执行官雷纳·布莱尔主持。</blockquote></p><p> International Paper,&nbsp;Synchrony Financial,&nbsp;and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.</p><p><blockquote>国际纸业、Synchrony Financial 和 Willis Towers Watson 举办投资者日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The European Central</b>&nbsp;Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.</p><p><blockquote><b>欧洲中心</b>银行宣布其货币政策决定。欧洲央行预计将维持关键利率在负0.5%不变。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b>&nbsp;reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 9 月 4 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。8 月份，平均每周申请人数为 35.5 万人，是大流行病爆发以来的最低水平。这也将是联邦增强失业救济金额外300美元发放的最后一周。它们将于9月6日到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 9/10</b></p><p><blockquote><b>9/10星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The BLS reports</b>the producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.</p><p><blockquote><b>BLS报告</b>8月份生产者价格指数。经济学家预测核心 PPI 将每月上涨 0.6%，核心 PPI 将上涨 0.5%，其中不包括波动较大的食品和能源价格。7 月份两者均上涨 1%。</blockquote></p><p> Kroger&nbsp;holds a conference calls to discuss earnings.&nbsp;Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.</p><p><blockquote>克罗格在评级召开会议讨论收益。雅宝和Bio-Techne举办2021年投资者日。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/september-stock-market-outlook-51630703979?mod=markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158349328","content_text":"Stocks famously perform poorly in September. But that may not necessarily be the case in a year like 2021.\nSince 1928, the average September return for the S&P 500 has been a 0.99% loss. That makes the month far worse than May, which ranks second in investor gloom with an average loss of 0.11%. But there’s a caveat here. History also finds that Septembers that follow strong gains earlier in the year tended to have positive returns. When the S&P 500 rose by more than 13% over the first six months, the median September gain since 1928 rang in at 1.4%, according to Fundstrat.\nOver that 93-year span, the S&P fell in 54% of the Septembers. But when markets rose from January through June, 63% of the Septembers saw positive gains. Through June of this year, the S&P 500 rallied 14%.\nA similar trend applies to the year. Strategists atWells Fargo recently lifted their target for the S&P 500 to a level that reflects more than 6% upside from current prices. Using data back to 1990, they say that in years in which the S&P sees double-digit percentage gains for the first eight months, it rises another 8% to finish the year.\nThe S&P 500 closed on Thursday at 4523, ending August with a year-to-date gain of 20.4%. But be aware of one thing: The ride could be bumpy. The S&P 500 hasn’t had a pullback of more than 5% this year. With risks on the horizon—the Delta variant, inflation, high valuations, even a corporate-tax increase—stocks could easily correct. “Markets are ‘overbought’ and due for a pullback,” writes Fundstrat research head Tom Lee. Perhaps, but don’t be surprised if this market bucks the September blues.\nThis Week \nMonday 9/6\nStock and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Labor Day.\nTuesday 9/7\nCasey’s General Stores and Coupa Software announce earnings.\nWednesday 9/8\nCopart, GameStop, and Lululemon Athletica release quarterly results.\nAnalog Devices hosts a conference call to discuss its capital-allocation plans and update its outlook for fiscal 2021. The company recently closed its $21 billion acquisition of Maxim Integrated Products.\nGlobal Payments, Johnson Controls International, and ResMed hold virtual investor days.\nThe Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. Consensus estimate is for 10 million job openings on the last business day of July. In June, there were 10.1 million openings, the fourth consecutive monthly record.\nThe Federal Reserve reports consumer credit data for July. Total outstanding consumer debt increased by $37.7 billion to a record $4.32 trillion in June. For the second quarter, consumer credit rose at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 8.8%, reflecting pent-up demand.\nThe Federal Reserve releases the beige book for the sixth of eight times this year. The report summarizes current economic conditions among the 12 Federal Reserve districts.\nThursday 9/9\nHome Depot hosts a conference call to discuss its ESG strategy, led by Ron Jarvis, the company’s chief sustainability officer.\nModerna hosts its fifth annual R&D day to discuss vaccines in the company’s pipeline. CEO Stéphane Bancel will be among the presenters.\nDanaher holds an investor and analyst meeting, hosted by its CEO Rainer Blair.\nInternational Paper, Synchrony Financial, and Willis Towers Watson hold investor days.\nThe European Central Bank announces its monetary-policy decision. The ECB is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at minus 0.5%.\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Sept. 4. In August, claims averaged 355,000 a week, the lowest since the pandemic’s onset. This will also be the last week that the extra $300 from federal enhanced unemployment benefits is available. They are set to expire by Sept. 6.\nFriday 9/10\nThe BLS reportsthe producer price index for August. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly rise along with a 0.5% increase for the core PPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices. Both jumped 1% in July.\nKroger holds a conference calls to discuss earnings. Albemarle and Bio-Techne host their 2021 investor days.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3063,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":817204982,"gmtCreate":1630965710946,"gmtModify":1631891649797,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/817204982","repostId":"1121396906","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2939,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818573454,"gmtCreate":1630422245478,"gmtModify":1633678166343,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818573454","repostId":"2163868612","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818573138,"gmtCreate":1630422228624,"gmtModify":1633678166669,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818573138","repostId":"1145804281","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1188,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818579773,"gmtCreate":1630422218592,"gmtModify":1633678166914,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818579773","repostId":"1155259610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818579236,"gmtCreate":1630422207625,"gmtModify":1633678167157,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818579236","repostId":"2163868190","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":932,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818579180,"gmtCreate":1630422196240,"gmtModify":1633678167381,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818579180","repostId":"1173998132","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1353,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811227778,"gmtCreate":1630328717494,"gmtModify":1704958506856,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811227778","repostId":"1170900581","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170900581","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630326276,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170900581?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-30 20:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Marqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.<blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170900581","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Marqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.\n\nMarqeta enables companies like DoorDash a","content":"<p>Marqeta&nbsp;shares&nbsp;popped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;12%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85d4ff62301523018e58e4fa94adf17\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta enables companies like DoorDash and Affirm to build out highly specialized payments capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta使DoorDash和Affirm等公司能够构建高度专业化的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> Affirm Holdings Inc said on&nbsp;last Friday it has partnered with Amazon.com Inc to make its buy now, pay later service available to certain customers of the e-commerce giant.</p><p><blockquote>Affirm Holdings Inc 上周五表示，已与亚马逊公司合作，向这家电子商务巨头的某些客户提供先买后付服务。</blockquote></p><p> Affirm uses Marqeta to issue virtual cards for last mile financing, as well as card control by restricting funds by merchant, dollar amount, and time.</p><p><blockquote>Affirm 使用 Marqeta 发行虚拟卡进行最后一英里融资，并通过按商家、金额和时间限制资金来进行卡控制。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Marqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.<blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMarqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.<blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-30 20:24</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Marqeta&nbsp;shares&nbsp;popped&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;12%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta 股价在盘前交易中上涨超过 12%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b85d4ff62301523018e58e4fa94adf17\" tg-width=\"889\" tg-height=\"600\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Marqeta enables companies like DoorDash and Affirm to build out highly specialized payments capabilities.</p><p><blockquote>Marqeta使DoorDash和Affirm等公司能够构建高度专业化的支付能力。</blockquote></p><p> Affirm Holdings Inc said on&nbsp;last Friday it has partnered with Amazon.com Inc to make its buy now, pay later service available to certain customers of the e-commerce giant.</p><p><blockquote>Affirm Holdings Inc 上周五表示，已与亚马逊公司合作，向这家电子商务巨头的某些客户提供先买后付服务。</blockquote></p><p> Affirm uses Marqeta to issue virtual cards for last mile financing, as well as card control by restricting funds by merchant, dollar amount, and time.</p><p><blockquote>Affirm 使用 Marqeta 发行虚拟卡进行最后一英里融资，并通过按商家、金额和时间限制资金来进行卡控制。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","AFRM":"Affirm Holdings, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170900581","content_text":"Marqeta shares popped more than 12% in premarket trading.\n\nMarqeta enables companies like DoorDash and Affirm to build out highly specialized payments capabilities.\nAffirm Holdings Inc said on last Friday it has partnered with Amazon.com Inc to make its buy now, pay later service available to certain customers of the e-commerce giant.\nAffirm uses Marqeta to issue virtual cards for last mile financing, as well as card control by restricting funds by merchant, dollar amount, and time.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AFRM":0.9,"MQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811227216,"gmtCreate":1630328704835,"gmtModify":1704958505989,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811227216","repostId":"2163252886","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1016,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811227896,"gmtCreate":1630328693715,"gmtModify":1704958505816,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811227896","repostId":"2163886771","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1004,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811224728,"gmtCreate":1630328682364,"gmtModify":1704958505297,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811224728","repostId":"2163889350","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":811224667,"gmtCreate":1630328664759,"gmtModify":1704958504604,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3571129545109571","authorIdStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811224667","repostId":"2163788958","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1070,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":899284797,"gmtCreate":1628201102019,"gmtModify":1633752791756,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/899284797","repostId":"2157458815","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":610,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833038230,"gmtCreate":1629188408920,"gmtModify":1633686716463,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833038230","repostId":"2160791292","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896213241,"gmtCreate":1628584313683,"gmtModify":1633745964627,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896213241","repostId":"1135271471","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135271471","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628582972,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135271471?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 16:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fisker shares surged 13% in premarket trading.<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中飙升 13%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135271471","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Fisker shares surged 13% in premarket trading.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas resumes coverage on","content":"<p>Fisker&nbsp;shares surged 13% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中飙升 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f00bc18f7231ad94dee4a100df3dcc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas resumes coverage on Fisker (NYSE:FSR) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40.00. The analyst sets a new $90 bull case.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 恢复对 Fisker (NYSE:FSR) 的报道，给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为 40.00 美元。分析师设定了一个新的 90 美元牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst comments \"Among an ever increasing range of EV manufacturers, what attracts us to Fisker is the company's focused strategy on design and engineering and supply chain while leveraging the Magna-Steyr relationship in contract manufacturing to derisk the ramp, accelerate time to market and provide a path to scale and profitability. We believe Fisker is meant to display the power of what can happen when a clean-sheet approach leverages Magna's contract manufacturing. The shared/vested interest and Fisker's design and experience, combined with reasonable valuation underpins the Overweight.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师评论道：“在不断增加的电动汽车制造商中，菲斯克吸引我们的是该公司专注于设计、工程和供应链的战略，同时利用麦格纳-斯太尔在合同制造方面的关系来降低斜坡风险，加快上市时间并提供规模化和盈利能力的途径。我们相信，菲斯克旨在展示当白纸方法利用麦格纳的合同制造时可能发生的事情的力量。共同/既得利益以及菲斯克的设计和经验，再加上合理的估值，支撑了跑赢大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Fisker closed at $14.46 yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 股价昨天收于 14.46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fisker shares surged 13% in premarket trading.<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中飙升 13%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFisker shares surged 13% in premarket trading.<blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中飙升 13%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 16:09</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Fisker&nbsp;shares surged 13% in premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>菲斯克股价在盘前交易中飙升 13%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/78f00bc18f7231ad94dee4a100df3dcc\" tg-width=\"861\" tg-height=\"607\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Morgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas resumes coverage on Fisker (NYSE:FSR) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40.00. The analyst sets a new $90 bull case.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师 Adam Jonas 恢复对 Fisker (NYSE:FSR) 的报道，给予跑赢大盘评级，目标价为 40.00 美元。分析师设定了一个新的 90 美元牛市案例。</blockquote></p><p> The analyst comments \"Among an ever increasing range of EV manufacturers, what attracts us to Fisker is the company's focused strategy on design and engineering and supply chain while leveraging the Magna-Steyr relationship in contract manufacturing to derisk the ramp, accelerate time to market and provide a path to scale and profitability. We believe Fisker is meant to display the power of what can happen when a clean-sheet approach leverages Magna's contract manufacturing. The shared/vested interest and Fisker's design and experience, combined with reasonable valuation underpins the Overweight.\"</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师评论道：“在不断增加的电动汽车制造商中，菲斯克吸引我们的是该公司专注于设计、工程和供应链的战略，同时利用麦格纳-斯太尔在合同制造方面的关系来降低斜坡风险，加快上市时间并提供规模化和盈利能力的途径。我们相信，菲斯克旨在展示当白纸方法利用麦格纳的合同制造时可能发生的事情的力量。共同/既得利益以及菲斯克的设计和经验，再加上合理的估值，支撑了跑赢大盘。”</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Fisker closed at $14.46 yesterday.</p><p><blockquote>Fisker 股价昨天收于 14.46 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"FSR":"菲斯克"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135271471","content_text":"Fisker shares surged 13% in premarket trading.\nMorgan Stanley analyst Adam Jonas resumes coverage on Fisker (NYSE:FSR) with an Overweight rating and a price target of $40.00. The analyst sets a new $90 bull case.\nThe analyst comments \"Among an ever increasing range of EV manufacturers, what attracts us to Fisker is the company's focused strategy on design and engineering and supply chain while leveraging the Magna-Steyr relationship in contract manufacturing to derisk the ramp, accelerate time to market and provide a path to scale and profitability. We believe Fisker is meant to display the power of what can happen when a clean-sheet approach leverages Magna's contract manufacturing. The shared/vested interest and Fisker's design and experience, combined with reasonable valuation underpins the Overweight.\"\nShares of Fisker closed at $14.46 yesterday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"FSR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890663097,"gmtCreate":1628114805519,"gmtModify":1633753583188,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890663097","repostId":"1187165636","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":673,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120194267,"gmtCreate":1624312873659,"gmtModify":1634008108778,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like and comment. Thx","listText":"Plz like and comment. Thx","text":"Plz like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120194267","repostId":"2145084835","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896213119,"gmtCreate":1628584297631,"gmtModify":1633745964950,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896213119","repostId":"1199439318","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1199439318","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1628583651,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1199439318?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-10 16:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares fell 1% in premarket trading,as the company delivering 8,621 Chinese-made vehicles in China  in July, down 69% from the previous month.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌 1%，该公司 7 月份在中国交付了 8,621 辆中国制造的汽车，环比下降 69%。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1199439318","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;the&nbsp;company&nbsp;delivering&nbsp;8,621&nbsp;Chinese-made&nbsp;vehicles&nbsp;in&nbsp;China&nbsp; in July, down 69% from the previous month.","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;the&nbsp;company&nbsp;delivering&nbsp;8,621&nbsp;Chinese-made&nbsp;vehicles&nbsp;in&nbsp;China&nbsp; in July, down 69% from the previous month.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌 1%，该公司 7 月份在中国交付了 8,621 辆中国制造的汽车，环比下降 69%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6658f9412245f1a24a5923cb11933e10\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares fell 1% in premarket trading,as the company delivering 8,621 Chinese-made vehicles in China  in July, down 69% from the previous month.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌 1%，该公司 7 月份在中国交付了 8,621 辆中国制造的汽车，环比下降 69%。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares fell 1% in premarket trading,as the company delivering 8,621 Chinese-made vehicles in China  in July, down 69% from the previous month.<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌 1%，该公司 7 月份在中国交付了 8,621 辆中国制造的汽车，环比下降 69%。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-10 16:20</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;fell&nbsp;1%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading,as&nbsp;the&nbsp;company&nbsp;delivering&nbsp;8,621&nbsp;Chinese-made&nbsp;vehicles&nbsp;in&nbsp;China&nbsp; in July, down 69% from the previous month.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中下跌 1%，该公司 7 月份在中国交付了 8,621 辆中国制造的汽车，环比下降 69%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6658f9412245f1a24a5923cb11933e10\" tg-width=\"859\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1199439318","content_text":"Tesla shares fell 1% in premarket trading,as the company delivering 8,621 Chinese-made vehicles in China  in July, down 69% from the previous month.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807814663,"gmtCreate":1628028724852,"gmtModify":1633754366339,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807814663","repostId":"1127822150","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":182766555,"gmtCreate":1623621501377,"gmtModify":1634031209059,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow..... Please like and comment. Thx","listText":"Wow..... Please like and comment. Thx","text":"Wow..... Please like and comment. Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/182766555","repostId":"2142204074","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805331720,"gmtCreate":1627859992160,"gmtModify":1633755966304,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","listText":"Please like and comment. Thanks.&nbsp;","text":"Please like and comment. Thanks.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805331720","repostId":"1142925544","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142925544","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627787240,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1142925544?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-01 11:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142925544","media":"Barron's","summary":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970","content":"<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Investors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInvestors, Beware! Stocks Are Entering the Most Dangerous Stretch of the Year<blockquote>投资者小心!股市正在进入一年中最危险的时期</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-01 11:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.</p><p><blockquote>“是的，现在是夏天，我一年中的季节”，乐队高唱着 20 世纪 70 年代的金色老歌《夏天》，回忆起在海滩或烧烤旁的美好时光。当时没有必要提醒任何人干旱、野火或新冠肺炎激增，这些都是今年潮湿季节的不幸特征。</blockquote></p><p> But the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&amp;P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.</p><p><blockquote>但根据美国银行分析师斯蒂芬·萨特迈尔 (Stephen Suttmeier) 编制的 1928 年数据，8 月的到来也意味着股市进入了历史上一年中最危险的时期。他发现，标准普尔 500 指数在 8 月、9 月和 10 月的平均回报率为 0.03%，这是该大型股基准指数一年中最糟糕的三个月。事实上，它们是唯一平均亏损的三个月时期。</blockquote></p><p> August actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&amp;P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.</p><p><blockquote>他在一份研究报告中补充道，八月实际上是一年中最好和最差的月份。7 月份标普500的平均回报率为 1.58%，其中 59.1% 的时间为正面结果，而 9 月份的平均回报率为负 1.03%，不到一半的时间（即 45%）以正面结果结束。</blockquote></p><p> This July did even better than the norm, with the S&amp;P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.</p><p><blockquote>今年7月的表现甚至好于正常水平，标普500上涨了2.27%。据道琼斯统计专家称，这也是该指数连续第六个月上涨，是自 2018 年 9 月以来最长的连涨。在此期间，其累计上涨18.34%。</blockquote></p><p> August’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&amp;P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”</p><p><blockquote>8 月份的记录介于两者之间，平均标普500回报率为 0.70%，阳性结果率为 58.1%，标志着从 “夏季撕裂 ”到 “秋季下跌 ”的过渡。</blockquote></p><p> Not surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.</p><p><blockquote>Suttmeier 发现，毫不奇怪，8 月至 10 月期间的滞后回报伴随着波动性的上升。根据 1992 年的记录，继 4 月至 7 月期间波动性相对较低之后，ECBOE 波动率指数 (VIX) 在那几个月经常出现飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Past isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.</p><p><blockquote>过去不一定是序幕，但如果是序幕，那么如果股市确实经历了典型的季节性动荡时期，Robinhood Markets（股票代码：HOOD）首次公开募股的时机可能会被证明是有利的。这家在线经纪商的假定使命是向被老牌机构忽视的新手开放投资，周四以 38 美元的价格出售了 5500 万股股票。在这个过程中，它给所有进入IPO的人提供了宝贵的一课：低买高卖。</blockquote></p><p> The company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.</p><p><blockquote>该公司显然满足了后一个要求，高价出售其股票，尽管它们的定价处于预期的 38-42 美元范围的低端。他们的价格在第一天交易中下跌了8.4%，尽管他们在周五有所回升。截至周末，持有 Robinhood IPO 的买家下跌了 7.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Among those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.</p><p><blockquote>公司联合创始人、首席执行官弗拉基米尔-特涅夫（Vladimir Tenev）和首席创意官拜朱-巴特（Baiju Bhatt）都在高价抛售，他们在首次公开募股中分别抛售了 125 万股股票。正如我杰出的前任艾伦-阿贝尔森（Alan Abelson）喜欢指出的那样，卖出股票有很多很好的理由，但预期股价上涨并不是其中之一。鉴于富裕的所有者有能力通过廉价借款来将其资产货币化，而且无需缴纳资本利得税，这一点从未如此真实。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，Tenev 和 Bhatt 仍然持有 Robinhood 的重大股份。Asour 的同事 Avi Salzman 报道称，这些股票按首次发行价计算价值 25 亿美元，Tenev 和 Bhatt 保留投票控制权。如果股价达到 300 美元，两人还可以获得 Tenev 价值高达 67 亿美元的股票奖励，Bhatt 价值高达 40 亿美元的股票奖励，或者接近众所周知的十袋大亨。</blockquote></p><p> But in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”</p><p><blockquote>但为了打击收入不平等，这对潜在的亿万富翁夫妇象征性地减薪，美国工人的平均年薪降至 34,248 美元。正如喜剧演员雅科夫-斯米尔诺夫（Yakov Smirnoff）喜欢说的那样：“多么美好的国家啊!”</blockquote></p><p> How those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.</p><p><blockquote>这些工人的情况将是定于本周五发布的月度就业报告的主题。</blockquote></p><p> Economists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家对非农就业人数的预测集中在增加 90 万人左右。Jefferies 经济学家 Aneta Markowska 和 Thomas Simons 估计，这一增幅可能会超过人们期待已久的 100 万大关；他们预测120万。</blockquote></p><p> Markowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)</p><p><blockquote>Markowska和Simons认为，一些州补充失业救济金的到期将增加劳动力供应，尽管这是一个有争议的问题。(有关就业市场的更多信息，请参阅本周的封面故事）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-news-robinhood-sp500-51627692215?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142925544","content_text":"“Yes, it’s summer, my time of year,”as the group War sangin that golden oldie “Summer” from the 1970s, recalling pleasant times at the beach or by the barbecue. No need to remind anyone back then of droughts, wildfires, or Covid-19 surges that are unfortunate features of the steamy season this year.\nBut the coming of August also means entering what historically has been the most treacherous stretch of the year for stocks, according to data going back to 1928 compiled by Bank of America analyst Stephen Suttmeier. He finds that theS&P 500index had a negative return averaging 0.03% in August, September, and October—the worst three-month span of the year for the big-cap benchmark. In fact, they constitute the only three-month period that averages in the red.\nAugust actually is bracketed by the best and worst months of the year, he adds in a research note. July averages a 1.58% return on the S&P 500, with positive results 59.1% of the time, while September averages a negative 1.03%, ending in the plus column less than half of the time, or 45%.\nThis July did even better than the norm, with the S&P 500 gaining 2.27%. It also was the sixth consecutive up month for the index—the longest positive streak since September 2018, according to Dow Jones’ statistical mavens. During that period, its cumulative advance was 18.34%.\nAugust’s record is in between, with an average 0.70% S&P 500 return and positive results 58.1% of the time, marking a transition from the “summer rip” to the “fall dip.”\nNot surprisingly, the laggard returns of the August-October period are accompanied by an uptick in volatility, Suttmeier finds. Based on records going back to 1992, theCboe Volatility Index,or VIX, has often seen spikes during those months, following relatively subdued volatility in the April-July period.\nPast isn’t necessarily prologue, but if it is, the timing of the initial public offering byRobinhood Markets(ticker: HOOD) might prove propitious, if the stock market does have its typical seasonal rough patch. The online broker, whose putative mission is to open investing to novices supposedly ignored by established outfits, sold 55 million shares at $38 on Thursday. In the process, it provided a valuable lesson to all those who got in on the IPO: Buy low and sell high.\nThe company evidently fulfilled the latter imperative, selling its shares high, even though they were priced at the low end of the expected $38-$42 range. Their price sank 8.4% on their first day of trading, although they recouped a bit on Friday. By week’s end, buyers of Robinhood’s IPO who held were down 7.5%.\nAmong those who sold high were the company’s co-founders, CEO Vladimir Tenev and Chief Creative Officer Baiju Bhatt, who each offloaded 1.25 million shares in the IPO. As my illustrious predecessor, Alan Abelson, liked to observe, there are many good reasons to sell a stock, but expecting it to go up isn’t one of them. That has never been more true, given the ability of rich owners to monetize their assets by borrowing against them cheaply, and without incurring capital-gains taxes.\nTo be sure, Tenev and Bhatt still have significant stakes in Robinhood. Asour colleague Avi Salzman reported, these were worth $2.5 billion at the initial offering price, and Tenev and Bhatt retain voting control. The two also could receive awards of shares worth as much as $6.7 billion for Tenev and $4 billion for Bhatt, if the stock hits $300, or nearly the proverbial ten-bagger from here.\nBut in a blow against income inequality, the potential billionaire pair took symbolic pay cuts, to $34,248, the average annual wage of American workers. As the comedian Yakov Smirnoff likes to say, “What a country!”\nHow those workers are faring will be a subject of the monthly employment report slated for release this coming Friday.\nEconomists’ forecasts for nonfarm payrolls center around a gain of 900,000. Jefferies economists Aneta Markowska and Thomas Simons estimate that the increase could top the long-anticipated one million mark; they forecast 1.2 million.\nMarkowska and Simons think the expiration of supplemental unemployment benefits in some states will boost the labor supply, although that is a matter of significant debate. (For more on the jobs market, seethis week’s cover story.)","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1103,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141714018,"gmtCreate":1625891550534,"gmtModify":1633936305812,"author":{"id":"3571129545109571","authorId":"3571129545109571","name":"MrMrsBean","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8f1ab99fec06884945521404915aec0e","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3571129545109571","idStr":"3571129545109571"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Plz like and comment... Thx","listText":"Plz like and comment... Thx","text":"Plz like and comment... Thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141714018","repostId":"2150306047","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":778,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}