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2021-03-02

Down, down, down

'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>

2021-02-23

Bad

Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote>

2021-02-20

Nice

Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote>

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down, down&nbsp;","listText":"Down, down, down&nbsp;","text":"Down, down, down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365066391","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105841550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>总结：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股权更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险聚类分析</b>显示最新的头寸分析、旗舰 Ark Innovation ETF 中的交叉相关性以及回撤分析。昨天，对于这个风险集群来说，又是一个糟糕的交易日，Ark Invest 的所有 ETF 都出现了资金流出，突显出风险情绪已经发生了变化。随着创始人本周大胆增加在特斯拉的头寸，这一风险集群可能会变成丑陋的强制抛售动态，不仅给特斯拉、比特币和方舟基金带来痛苦，也给美国生物技术股票带来痛苦。方舟投资是其中的主要持有者，在选定的名称中拥有较高的所有权。一个多月前，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的事情，因为特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性正在飙升。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大的重叠，因为这两种工具都是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了 Ark Invest，其著名的 Ark Innovation ETF 在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人 Cathie Wood 是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的坚定信徒。这类人坚信技术主要对社会的各个方面都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上的高度财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和像奇点大学这样的机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的网络营销机器将普通人吸入游戏。最近，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又以实际行动为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了 15 亿美元，从而大大增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互促进，形成了正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔 ”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟立场更新、凯西-伍德的大胆举动以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及对未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的担忧。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面上升，凯西·伍德一度认为有必要公开支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了他们在特斯拉的头寸，未来使用大量数字来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你有看到大量资金流出的风险时，你应该首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸，同时你可以控制局面。因为如果你被迫通过救赎来做这件事，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时 Ark Invest 的最新持仓情况。方舟投资持有流通股10%以上的股票仍有26只。如果方舟投资突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负面反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也要注意，美国生物技术股票在这份流通股比例较高的股票名单中所占比例过高。如果 Ark Invest 突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物技术股票的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会蔓延到整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>方舟投资基金持有的合并所有权超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升到资产管理规模的7%，前五名现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square 最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以 1.7 亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在方舟创新 ETF 本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的 10.2%，加上Roku (6%) 和 Square (5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的 21.6%。如果你看看方舟创新ETF中的10个最大头寸，那么共同的主线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价很低。除了特斯拉，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股票风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司更具主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本变了。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest AUM 在所有基金中排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上升和下降异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升，无论是资产类别还是单只股票。下图显示了自 2020 年初以来 Ark Innovation ETF 的 10 天移动互相关。它最近已经上升到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且从几周前的0.2迅速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待风险的方法是绘制自 2015 年 12 月以来 Ark Innovation ETF 与纳斯达克 100 指数的回撤情况。<b>ETF 的回撤幅度通常是纳斯达克 100 指数的 1.22 倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为 2.44，因此表明 Ark Innovation ETF 正在发生一些特殊情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金流出继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，因为它是一个异常值，表明风险的负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-01 20:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>总结：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股权更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险聚类分析</b>显示最新的头寸分析、旗舰 Ark Innovation ETF 中的交叉相关性以及回撤分析。昨天，对于这个风险集群来说，又是一个糟糕的交易日，Ark Invest 的所有 ETF 都出现了资金流出，突显出风险情绪已经发生了变化。随着创始人本周大胆增加在特斯拉的头寸，这一风险集群可能会变成丑陋的强制抛售动态，不仅给特斯拉、比特币和方舟基金带来痛苦，也给美国生物技术股票带来痛苦。方舟投资是其中的主要持有者，在选定的名称中拥有较高的所有权。一个多月前，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的事情，因为特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性正在飙升。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大的重叠，因为这两种工具都是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了 Ark Invest，其著名的 Ark Innovation ETF 在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人 Cathie Wood 是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的坚定信徒。这类人坚信技术主要对社会的各个方面都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上的高度财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和像奇点大学这样的机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的网络营销机器将普通人吸入游戏。最近，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又以实际行动为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了 15 亿美元，从而大大增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互促进，形成了正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔 ”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟立场更新、凯西-伍德的大胆举动以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及对未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的担忧。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面上升，凯西·伍德一度认为有必要公开支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了他们在特斯拉的头寸，未来使用大量数字来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你有看到大量资金流出的风险时，你应该首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸，同时你可以控制局面。因为如果你被迫通过救赎来做这件事，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时 Ark Invest 的最新持仓情况。方舟投资持有流通股10%以上的股票仍有26只。如果方舟投资突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负面反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也要注意，美国生物技术股票在这份流通股比例较高的股票名单中所占比例过高。如果 Ark Invest 突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物技术股票的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会蔓延到整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>方舟投资基金持有的合并所有权超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升到资产管理规模的7%，前五名现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square 最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以 1.7 亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在方舟创新 ETF 本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的 10.2%，加上Roku (6%) 和 Square (5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的 21.6%。如果你看看方舟创新ETF中的10个最大头寸，那么共同的主线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价很低。除了特斯拉，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股票风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司更具主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本变了。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest AUM 在所有基金中排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上升和下降异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升，无论是资产类别还是单只股票。下图显示了自 2020 年初以来 Ark Innovation ETF 的 10 天移动互相关。它最近已经上升到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且从几周前的0.2迅速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待风险的方法是绘制自 2015 年 12 月以来 Ark Innovation ETF 与纳斯达克 100 指数的回撤情况。<b>ETF 的回撤幅度通常是纳斯达克 100 指数的 1.22 倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为 2.44，因此表明 Ark Innovation ETF 正在发生一些特殊情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金流出继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，因为它是一个异常值，表明风险的负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369277411,"gmtCreate":1614054067133,"gmtModify":1634551378333,"author":{"id":"3572491876154529","authorId":"3572491876154529","name":"YangL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572491876154529","authorIdStr":"3572491876154529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad","listText":"Bad","text":"Bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369277411","repostId":"1175731087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175731087","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614049350,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175731087?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175731087","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer Tesla is now in bear-market territory. That’s a problem for the entire EV sector.Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.Of course, Tesla is the 800-pound gorilla in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Stree","content":"<p>Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is now in&nbsp;bear-market&nbsp;territory. That’s a problem for the entire&nbsp;EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先驱特斯拉的股票目前处于熊市区域。这是整个电动汽车行业的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一收盘下跌 8.6%，至每股 714.50 美元。这使它们比 1 月份触及的 52 周高点 900.40 美元下跌了近 186 美元。下降了约 21%。</blockquote></p><p>It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这个术语通常适用于广泛的股票群体，这么说似乎很奇怪，但特斯拉股票出现了新的熊市——从高点下跌了 20%。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, Tesla is the&nbsp;800-pound gorilla&nbsp;in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉是电动汽车领域的800磅重的大猩猩。它的价值几乎相当于所有其他传统汽车制造商的总和。当特斯拉股价下跌时，其他电动汽车股票也会随之下跌，因为华尔街通常会依靠特斯拉的估值来制定目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, shares of three other&nbsp;high-flying&nbsp;EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>周一，其他三只销量可观的电动汽车股票——蔚来（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）——的股价下跌了约 7% 至 8%。自特斯拉股价创下历史新高以来，蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车的股价平均下跌了约 20%，就像特斯拉一样。</blockquote></p><p>It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.</p><p><blockquote>看起来特斯拉是电动汽车股票的基准，就像标普500是美国股票的比较基础一样。这为电动汽车投资者提出了一个有趣的想法：测试版的特斯拉版本。从某种意义上说，贝塔概念可以被视为衡量股票系统性风险的指标。市场的走势与个股的贝塔系数有关。</blockquote></p><p>If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&amp;P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果一只股票的贝塔系数为 2，那么如果市场上涨 1%，预计它将上涨约 2%。贝塔值并不总是高于 1。例如，标准普尔 500 指数中的金矿公司的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此如果大盘指数上涨，它们的涨幅不会那么快。</blockquote></p><p>Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&amp;P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以将黄金贝塔系数解释为，这些黄金股票发生的事情中，大约有一半是由标普500发生的事情解释的，另一半是由其他因素造成的，如金价的走势。</blockquote></p><p>Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.</p><p><blockquote>贝塔只是一个数学计算。如果投资者愿意，他们可以计算股票相对于中央公园大气压力的贝塔值。然而，数学必须有意义，所以没有人这样做。然而，就电动汽车而言，特斯拉对任何电动汽车股票来说都是一种风险，这种想法并不牵强。</blockquote></p><p>The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来、小鹏和理想这三只中国电动汽车股票的 “特斯拉贝塔”约为 0.5。就像黄金股一样，这可以被解释为说这三只股票发生的事情大约有一半是特斯拉股票发生的事情的函数。</blockquote></p><p>It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?</p><p><blockquote>这是个有趣的想法。但特斯拉股票到底发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p>It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一切都与通胀上升的可能性有关。由于金融贴现率的运作方式，通货膨胀加剧是市场越来越担心的问题，它往往会对高增长股票而不是低增长股票造成更大的惩罚。特斯拉的大部分现金流都来自未来几年，而当利率上升时，未来现金流的价值就会降低。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>周一，许多成长型股票都表现不佳。众所周知，许多快速增长的科技公司所在地纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%。特斯拉相对于纳斯达克的贝塔值约为 2，因此投资者对特斯拉股价下跌 5% 并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site&nbsp;Electrek&nbsp;reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，特斯拉股价下跌了 9%。额外的4%仍然是个谜。据新闻网站 Electrek 报道，特斯拉已停止接受价格最低的 Model Y 的订单，但对价格较低的电动汽车车型的高需求并不是一件坏事。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/728e2afa9536498c3500bf3fdae26f29\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;is also spending a lot of time tweeting about&nbsp;cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也花了很多时间在推特上谈论加密货币。这可能会让特斯拉投资者感到不安。然而，他的推特与近期的历史并没有什么不同。马斯克因其在许多话题上的推文而闻名。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is now in&nbsp;bear-market&nbsp;territory. That’s a problem for the entire&nbsp;EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先驱特斯拉的股票目前处于熊市区域。这是整个电动汽车行业的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一收盘下跌 8.6%，至每股 714.50 美元。这使它们比 1 月份触及的 52 周高点 900.40 美元下跌了近 186 美元。下降了约 21%。</blockquote></p><p>It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这个术语通常适用于广泛的股票群体，这么说似乎很奇怪，但特斯拉股票出现了新的熊市——从高点下跌了 20%。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, Tesla is the&nbsp;800-pound gorilla&nbsp;in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉是电动汽车领域的800磅重的大猩猩。它的价值几乎相当于所有其他传统汽车制造商的总和。当特斯拉股价下跌时，其他电动汽车股票也会随之下跌，因为华尔街通常会依靠特斯拉的估值来制定目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, shares of three other&nbsp;high-flying&nbsp;EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>周一，其他三只销量可观的电动汽车股票——蔚来（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）——的股价下跌了约 7% 至 8%。自特斯拉股价创下历史新高以来，蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车的股价平均下跌了约 20%，就像特斯拉一样。</blockquote></p><p>It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.</p><p><blockquote>看起来特斯拉是电动汽车股票的基准，就像标普500是美国股票的比较基础一样。这为电动汽车投资者提出了一个有趣的想法：测试版的特斯拉版本。从某种意义上说，贝塔概念可以被视为衡量股票系统性风险的指标。市场的走势与个股的贝塔系数有关。</blockquote></p><p>If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&amp;P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果一只股票的贝塔系数为 2，那么如果市场上涨 1%，预计它将上涨约 2%。贝塔值并不总是高于 1。例如，标准普尔 500 指数中的金矿公司的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此如果大盘指数上涨，它们的涨幅不会那么快。</blockquote></p><p>Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&amp;P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以将黄金贝塔系数解释为，这些黄金股票发生的事情中，大约有一半是由标普500发生的事情解释的，另一半是由其他因素造成的，如金价的走势。</blockquote></p><p>Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.</p><p><blockquote>贝塔只是一个数学计算。如果投资者愿意，他们可以计算股票相对于中央公园大气压力的贝塔值。然而，数学必须有意义，所以没有人这样做。然而，就电动汽车而言，特斯拉对任何电动汽车股票来说都是一种风险，这种想法并不牵强。</blockquote></p><p>The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来、小鹏和理想这三只中国电动汽车股票的 “特斯拉贝塔”约为 0.5。就像黄金股一样，这可以被解释为说这三只股票发生的事情大约有一半是特斯拉股票发生的事情的函数。</blockquote></p><p>It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?</p><p><blockquote>这是个有趣的想法。但特斯拉股票到底发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p>It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一切都与通胀上升的可能性有关。由于金融贴现率的运作方式，通货膨胀加剧是市场越来越担心的问题，它往往会对高增长股票而不是低增长股票造成更大的惩罚。特斯拉的大部分现金流都来自未来几年，而当利率上升时，未来现金流的价值就会降低。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>周一，许多成长型股票都表现不佳。众所周知，许多快速增长的科技公司所在地纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%。特斯拉相对于纳斯达克的贝塔值约为 2，因此投资者对特斯拉股价下跌 5% 并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site&nbsp;Electrek&nbsp;reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，特斯拉股价下跌了 9%。额外的4%仍然是个谜。据新闻网站 Electrek 报道，特斯拉已停止接受价格最低的 Model Y 的订单，但对价格较低的电动汽车车型的高需求并不是一件坏事。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/728e2afa9536498c3500bf3fdae26f29\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;is also spending a lot of time tweeting about&nbsp;cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也花了很多时间在推特上谈论加密货币。这可能会让特斯拉投资者感到不安。然而，他的推特与近期的历史并没有什么不同。马斯克因其在许多话题上的推文而闻名。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-in-a-bear-market-its-taking-other-ev-stocks-with-it-51614034570?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-in-a-bear-market-its-taking-other-ev-stocks-with-it-51614034570?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175731087","content_text":"Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer Tesla is now in bear-market territory. That’s a problem for the entire EV sector.Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.Of course, Tesla is the 800-pound gorilla in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.Monday, shares of three other high-flying EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and Li Auto shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the S&P 500 is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site Electrek reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.CEO Elon Musk is also spending a lot of time tweeting about cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":387459765,"gmtCreate":1613780073157,"gmtModify":1634552280319,"author":{"id":"3572491876154529","authorId":"3572491876154529","name":"YangL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572491876154529","authorIdStr":"3572491876154529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387459765","repostId":"1161529893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161529893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613733842,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161529893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161529893","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by so","content":"<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴尔斯说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛 GS（-0.91%）将其机器人咨询服务 Marcus 限制为至少有 1000 万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少 1000 美元投资的人都可以使用与高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同的交易算法，每年只需支付 0.35% 的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在搭上机器人投资列车之前，还有更多成本需要考虑。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯-巴尔斯（Vance Barse）说：”就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 35 个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是 “亏损领先”，但他说，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”人们忘记了银行的最终生意是赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括 Vanguard、Fidelity 和 Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及 Betterment 和 Wealthfront 等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪人的费用会增加到1%或以上。行业出版物《Inside Information》对近 1,000 名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和 Betterment 提供的机器人顾问与 Robinhood 等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而 Robinhood 允许用户投资单个 ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是抢劫投资呢？把它想象成自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易踩下刹车。如果您赶时间，想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好和期望的短期和长期回报等因素设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，通常收取不超过0.5%的年费，而人力投资顾问的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能会成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅-洛（Cynthia Loh）不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务拥有更多来自人类的投入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在 MarketWatch 上所写： “关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问实质上意味着将资金控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化组件和人工组件，在幕后运行。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以从 “一劳永逸”的投资方式中得到安慰，让市场自行其是。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet 的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼-林-贝尔福（Tiffany Lam-Balfour）说，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你知道你不一定要一时冲动地做出买卖资产的决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”当你投资时，你不会想一直盯着市场看，然后说'哦，我需要摆脱困境'。“你想让专业人士帮你渡过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会增加。即使你有世界上最优秀的理财顾问，你也不能指望这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对年长投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付是很复杂的。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh 说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更精简、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理投资者自己动手更难、更耗时的平凡活动，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经常没有门可以敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。在大多数机器人投资平台上，您需要填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、理想退休年龄和您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>不过，它不会知道你是刚刚有了孩子，想开始为孩子以后的教育存钱，还是最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了，这个人会向谁寻求建议，该平台是否提供建议，如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化的投资建议，而提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，总部位于纽约市的财务咨询集团 Lifelaidout 的注册财务规划师罗杰-马（Roger Ma）说，机器人顾问不一定 “在管理资金时考虑到税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售累积亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马云说，传统顾问通常专门构建投资组合，以获得最节税的结果。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但对于机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易相同，这些投资者可能与您处于不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，但尤其是对初学者来说，它可能会 “使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果你只是想尝试一下，想感觉自己投资的是一个多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要做机器人顾问。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金会选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整仓位。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人建议和人类建议。2015 年，MarketWatch 邀请了四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问，为一位假设的 35 岁、拥有 40,000 美元投资的投资者构建投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>结果也许让机器人顾问的批评者感到惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group 的研究总监迈克尔-基茨（Michael Kitces）在审查了结果后说，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议 “没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 19:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴尔斯说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛 GS（-0.91%）将其机器人咨询服务 Marcus 限制为至少有 1000 万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少 1000 美元投资的人都可以使用与高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同的交易算法，每年只需支付 0.35% 的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在搭上机器人投资列车之前，还有更多成本需要考虑。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯-巴尔斯（Vance Barse）说：”就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 35 个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是 “亏损领先”，但他说，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”人们忘记了银行的最终生意是赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括 Vanguard、Fidelity 和 Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及 Betterment 和 Wealthfront 等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪人的费用会增加到1%或以上。行业出版物《Inside Information》对近 1,000 名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和 Betterment 提供的机器人顾问与 Robinhood 等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而 Robinhood 允许用户投资单个 ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是抢劫投资呢？把它想象成自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易踩下刹车。如果您赶时间，想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好和期望的短期和长期回报等因素设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，通常收取不超过0.5%的年费，而人力投资顾问的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能会成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅-洛（Cynthia Loh）不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务拥有更多来自人类的投入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在 MarketWatch 上所写： “关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问实质上意味着将资金控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化组件和人工组件，在幕后运行。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以从 “一劳永逸”的投资方式中得到安慰，让市场自行其是。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet 的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼-林-贝尔福（Tiffany Lam-Balfour）说，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你知道你不一定要一时冲动地做出买卖资产的决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”当你投资时，你不会想一直盯着市场看，然后说'哦，我需要摆脱困境'。“你想让专业人士帮你渡过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会增加。即使你有世界上最优秀的理财顾问，你也不能指望这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对年长投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付是很复杂的。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh 说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更精简、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理投资者自己动手更难、更耗时的平凡活动，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经常没有门可以敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。在大多数机器人投资平台上，您需要填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、理想退休年龄和您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>不过，它不会知道你是刚刚有了孩子，想开始为孩子以后的教育存钱，还是最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了，这个人会向谁寻求建议，该平台是否提供建议，如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化的投资建议，而提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，总部位于纽约市的财务咨询集团 Lifelaidout 的注册财务规划师罗杰-马（Roger Ma）说，机器人顾问不一定 “在管理资金时考虑到税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售累积亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马云说，传统顾问通常专门构建投资组合，以获得最节税的结果。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但对于机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易相同，这些投资者可能与您处于不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，但尤其是对初学者来说，它可能会 “使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果你只是想尝试一下，想感觉自己投资的是一个多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要做机器人顾问。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金会选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整仓位。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人建议和人类建议。2015 年，MarketWatch 邀请了四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问，为一位假设的 35 岁、拥有 40,000 美元投资的投资者构建投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>结果也许让机器人顾问的批评者感到惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group 的研究总监迈克尔-基茨（Michael Kitces）在审查了结果后说，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议 “没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161529893","content_text":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\n\nRobo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.\nNow anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.\n“Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\nAlthough the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.\n“People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.\nGoldman Sachs declined to comment.\nThe company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.\nFees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.\nThe median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.\nRobo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.\nRobo investing as a self-driving car\nConsumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.\nThe rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.\nSo what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.\nYou put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.\nRobo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.\nThere are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.\nAnd rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.\nCynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.\nAs she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”\nRobos appeal to inexperienced investors\nRobo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.\nThat makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.\n“When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”\nThat said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”\nOthers disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.\n“Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.\nThere is often no door to knock on\nYour robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.\nIt won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.\n“The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.\nNot all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.\nAdditionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.\nFor instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.\nBut with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.\nOn top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.\n“If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.\nDon’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.\nBut not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.\nThe results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":387459765,"gmtCreate":1613780073157,"gmtModify":1634552280319,"author":{"id":"3572491876154529","authorId":"3572491876154529","name":"YangL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572491876154529","authorIdStr":"3572491876154529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/387459765","repostId":"1161529893","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1161529893","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1613733842,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1161529893?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-19 19:24","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1161529893","media":"Marketwatch","summary":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by so","content":"<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴尔斯说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛 GS（-0.91%）将其机器人咨询服务 Marcus 限制为至少有 1000 万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少 1000 美元投资的人都可以使用与高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同的交易算法，每年只需支付 0.35% 的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在搭上机器人投资列车之前，还有更多成本需要考虑。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯-巴尔斯（Vance Barse）说：”就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 35 个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是 “亏损领先”，但他说，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”人们忘记了银行的最终生意是赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括 Vanguard、Fidelity 和 Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及 Betterment 和 Wealthfront 等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪人的费用会增加到1%或以上。行业出版物《Inside Information》对近 1,000 名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和 Betterment 提供的机器人顾问与 Robinhood 等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而 Robinhood 允许用户投资单个 ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是抢劫投资呢？把它想象成自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易踩下刹车。如果您赶时间，想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好和期望的短期和长期回报等因素设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，通常收取不超过0.5%的年费，而人力投资顾问的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能会成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅-洛（Cynthia Loh）不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务拥有更多来自人类的投入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在 MarketWatch 上所写： “关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问实质上意味着将资金控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化组件和人工组件，在幕后运行。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以从 “一劳永逸”的投资方式中得到安慰，让市场自行其是。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet 的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼-林-贝尔福（Tiffany Lam-Balfour）说，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你知道你不一定要一时冲动地做出买卖资产的决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”当你投资时，你不会想一直盯着市场看，然后说'哦，我需要摆脱困境'。“你想让专业人士帮你渡过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会增加。即使你有世界上最优秀的理财顾问，你也不能指望这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对年长投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付是很复杂的。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh 说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更精简、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理投资者自己动手更难、更耗时的平凡活动，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经常没有门可以敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。在大多数机器人投资平台上，您需要填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、理想退休年龄和您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>不过，它不会知道你是刚刚有了孩子，想开始为孩子以后的教育存钱，还是最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了，这个人会向谁寻求建议，该平台是否提供建议，如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化的投资建议，而提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，总部位于纽约市的财务咨询集团 Lifelaidout 的注册财务规划师罗杰-马（Roger Ma）说，机器人顾问不一定 “在管理资金时考虑到税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售累积亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马云说，传统顾问通常专门构建投资组合，以获得最节税的结果。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但对于机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易相同，这些投资者可能与您处于不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，但尤其是对初学者来说，它可能会 “使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果你只是想尝试一下，想感觉自己投资的是一个多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要做机器人顾问。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金会选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整仓位。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人建议和人类建议。2015 年，MarketWatch 邀请了四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问，为一位假设的 35 岁、拥有 40,000 美元投资的投资者构建投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>结果也许让机器人顾问的批评者感到惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group 的研究总监迈克尔-基茨（Michael Kitces）在审查了结果后说，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议 “没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs is joining the robo-investing party — should you?<blockquote>高盛正在加入机器人投资队伍——你应该吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-19 19:24</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  ‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.  Robo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.</p><p><blockquote>“就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢，”加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯·巴尔斯说，他经营着一家名为Your Dedicated Fiduciary的公司。机器人投资在几乎每个经纪平台上都变得越来越普遍。直到周二，高盛 GS（-0.91%）将其机器人咨询服务 Marcus 限制为至少有 1000 万美元可投资的人。</blockquote></p><p> Now anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.</p><p><blockquote>现在，任何拥有至少 1000 美元投资的人都可以使用与高盛一些最富有的客户使用的相同的交易算法，每年只需支付 0.35% 的咨询费。但投资专家表示，在搭上机器人投资列车之前，还有更多成本需要考虑。</blockquote></p><p> “Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.</p><p><blockquote>“加利福尼亚州圣地亚哥的财务顾问万斯-巴尔斯（Vance Barse）说：”就像在拉斯维加斯一样，房子通常会赢。</blockquote></p><p> Although the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.</p><p><blockquote>虽然 35 个基点的价格标签对高盛来说是 “亏损领先”，但他说，公司通常会提出这样的报价，以吸引客户向他们交叉销售银行产品。</blockquote></p><p> “People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”人们忘记了银行的最终生意是赚钱。</blockquote></p><p> Goldman Sachs declined to comment.</p><p><blockquote>高盛拒绝置评。</blockquote></p><p> The company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.</p><p><blockquote>该公司是其他提供数字顾问的主要金融服务公司之一，包括 Vanguard、Fidelity 和 Schwab SCHW，+1.03%，以及 Betterment 和 Wealthfront 等初创公司。</blockquote></p><p> Fees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问的费用从0.25%左右开始，传统经纪人的费用会增加到1%或以上。行业出版物《Inside Information》对近 1,000 名理财规划师进行的一项调查发现，投资组合越大，客户支付的费用比例就越低。</blockquote></p><p> The median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.</p><p><blockquote>对于100万美元或以下的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在1%左右，对于价值500万至1000万美元的投资组合，年费中位数徘徊在0.5%左右。</blockquote></p><p> Robo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>高盛和 Betterment 提供的机器人顾问与 Robinhood 等机器人平台不同。前者建议投资组合专注于交易所交易基金，而 Robinhood 允许用户投资单个 ETF、股票、期权甚至加密货币。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robo investing as a self-driving car</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人投资自动驾驶汽车</b></blockquote></p><p> Consumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情期间，消费者以前所未有的水平转向机器人投资。</blockquote></p><p> The rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.</p><p><blockquote>根据研究和咨询公司艾特集团5月份发布的一份报告，与去年第四季度相比，2020年第一季度新开户率跃升了50%至300%。</blockquote></p><p> So what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.</p><p><blockquote>那么什么是抢劫投资呢？把它想象成自动驾驶汽车。</blockquote></p><p> You put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.</p><p><blockquote>你输入目的地，在后座系好安全带，你的司机（机器人顾问）就会到达那里。作为乘客，如果你担心司机把你引向错误的方向，你就不能轻易踩下刹车。如果您赶时间，想更快地到达目的地，也不能踩油门。</blockquote></p><p> Robo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资平台使用先进的交易算法软件，根据个人的风险偏好和期望的短期和长期回报等因素设计投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> There are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.</p><p><blockquote>有200多个平台提供这些服务，通常收取不超过0.5%的年费，而人力投资顾问的年费为1%。</blockquote></p><p> And rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.</p><p><blockquote>机器人顾问处理资产的买卖，而不是完全自己投资，这可能会成为第二份工作并导致情绪化的投资决策。</blockquote></p><p> Cynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财数字咨询和创新副总裁辛西娅-洛（Cynthia Loh）不同意这种观点，她认为机器人投资并不意味着让技术控制你的资金。她说，嘉信理财拥有一支投资专家团队，负责监督投资策略并在市场波动期间进行监控，尽管有些服务比其他服务拥有更多来自人类的投入。</blockquote></p><p> As she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”</p><p><blockquote>正如她最近在 MarketWatch 上所写： “关于自动化投资的一个常见误解是，选择机器人顾问实质上意味着将资金控制权交给机器人。事实是，机器人解决方案结合了自动化组件和人工组件，在幕后运行。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Robos appeal to inexperienced investors</b></p><p><blockquote><b>机器人吸引缺乏经验的投资者</b></blockquote></p><p> Robo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.</p><p><blockquote>机器人投资往往吸引缺乏经验或没有时间或精力管理自己投资组合的投资者。巴尔斯说，这些投资者可以从 “一劳永逸”的投资方式中得到安慰，让市场自行其是。</blockquote></p><p> That makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.</p><p><blockquote>NerdWallet 的投资和退休专家蒂芙尼-林-贝尔福（Tiffany Lam-Balfour）说，这使得你更容易承受市场波动，因为你知道你不一定要一时冲动地做出买卖资产的决定。</blockquote></p><p> “When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”</p><p><blockquote>“她说：”当你投资时，你不会想一直盯着市场看，然后说'哦，我需要摆脱困境'。“你想让专业人士帮你渡过难关，因为他们知道你的时间范围，他们会自动为你调整你的投资组合”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> That said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，“你不能指望你的投资只会增加。即使你有世界上最优秀的理财顾问，你也不能指望这一点”。</blockquote></p><p> Others disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.</p><p><blockquote>其他人不同意，并表示机器人顾问对年长投资者有吸引力。“退休后的规划和支付是很复杂的。有很多选择可以帮助投资者度过难关，机器人投资就是其中之一，”Loh 说。</blockquote></p><p> “Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.</p><p><blockquote>“许多深思熟虑的长期投资者发现，他们想要一种更现代、更精简、更便宜的投资方式，而机器人投资正好符合要求。他们很乐意让技术来处理投资者自己动手更难、更耗时的平凡活动，”她补充道。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There is often no door to knock on</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经常没有门可以敲</b></blockquote></p><p> Your robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.</p><p><blockquote>你的机器人顾问只知道你告诉它什么。在大多数机器人投资平台上，您需要填写的简单问卷将收集有关您的年收入、理想退休年龄和您愿意承担的风险水平的信息。</blockquote></p><p> It won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.</p><p><blockquote>不过，它不会知道你是刚刚有了孩子，想开始为孩子以后的教育存钱，还是最近失业了。</blockquote></p><p> “The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.</p><p><blockquote>“那么问题就变成了，这个人会向谁寻求建议，该平台是否提供建议，如果提供，复杂程度如何？”巴斯说。</blockquote></p><p> Not all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.</p><p><blockquote>并非所有平台都提供个性化的投资建议，而提供人工建议的混合模式往往会收取更高的年费。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.</p><p><blockquote>此外，总部位于纽约市的财务咨询集团 Lifelaidout 的注册财务规划师罗杰-马（Roger Ma）说，机器人顾问不一定 “在管理资金时考虑到税收效率”。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.</p><p><blockquote>例如，投资者抵消长期投资税款的一种常见方式是出售累积亏损的资产。《工作你的钱，而不是你的生活》一书的作者马云说，传统顾问通常专门构建投资组合，以获得最节税的结果。</blockquote></p><p> But with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.</p><p><blockquote>但对于机器人投资，为您进行的交易与为许多其他投资者进行的交易相同，这些投资者可能与您处于不同的税级。</blockquote></p><p> On top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.</p><p><blockquote>最重要的是，虽然机器人投资可能感觉像是一种简单的投资方式，但尤其是对初学者来说，它可能会 “使投资过于复杂”，马云说。</blockquote></p><p> “If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果你只是想尝试一下，想感觉自己投资的是一个多元化的投资组合，我不会说绝对不要做机器人顾问。</blockquote></p><p> Don’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，不要排除通过目标日期基金进行投资，该基金会选择单一基金进行投资，并根据投资目标随着时间的推移调整仓位。</blockquote></p><p> But not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.</p><p><blockquote>但并不是每个人都能区分机器人建议和人类建议。2015 年，MarketWatch 邀请了四位著名的机器人顾问和四位传统的有血有肉的机器人顾问，为一位假设的 35 岁、拥有 40,000 美元投资的投资者构建投资组合。</blockquote></p><p> The results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.</p><p><blockquote>结果也许让机器人顾问的批评者感到惊讶。Pinnacle Advisory Group 的研究总监迈克尔-基茨（Michael Kitces）在审查了结果后说，机器人的建议与人类顾问的建议 “没有太大不同”。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page\">Marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/goldman-sachs-is-joining-the-robo-investing-party-should-you-11613658128?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1161529893","content_text":"‘Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\n\nRobo investing has become increasingly ubiquitous on practically every brokerage platform. Until Tuesday, Goldman Sachs GS, -0.91% restricted its robo-advisory service, Marcus, to people who had at least $10 million to invest.\nNow anyone with at least $1,000 to invest in can access the same trading algorithms that have been used by some of Goldman Sachs’ wealthiest clients for a 0.35% annual advisory fee. But investing experts say there are more costs to consider before jumping on the robo-investing train.\n“Much like in Vegas, the house generally wins,” said Vance Barse, a San Diego, California-based financial advisor who runs a company called Your Dedicated Fiduciary.\nAlthough the 35 basis-point price tag is a “loss leader” to Goldman Sachs, he said companies typically make such offers in order to attract clients to cross-sell them banking products.\n“People forget that banks are ultimately in the business of making money,” he said.\nGoldman Sachs declined to comment.\nThe company is among other major financial-services firms offering digital advisers, including Vanguard, Fidelity and Schwab SCHW, +1.03% and startups such as Betterment and Wealthfront.\nFees for robo advisers can start at around 0.25%, and increase to 1% and above for traditional brokers. A survey of nearly 1,000 financial planners by Inside Information, a trade publication, found that the bigger the portfolio, the lower the percentage clients paid in fees.\nThe median annual charge hovered at around 1% for portfolios of $1 million or less, and 0.5% for portfolios worth $5 million to $10 million.\nRobo advisers like those on offer from Goldman Sachs and Betterment differ from robo platforms like Robinhood. The former suggest portfolios focused on exchange-traded funds, while Robinhood allows users to invest in individual ETFs, stocks, options and even cryptocurrencies.\nRobo investing as a self-driving car\nConsumers have turned to robo-investing at unprecedented levels during the pandemic.\nThe rate of new accounts opened jumped between 50% and 300% during the first quarter of 2020 compared to the fourth quarter of last year, according to a May report published by research and advisory firm Aite Group.\nSo what is rob-investing? Think of it like a self-driving car.\nYou put in your destination, buckle up in the backseat and your driver (robo adviser) will get there. You, the passenger, can’t easily slam the breaks if you fear your driver is leading you in the wrong direction. Nor can you put your foot on the gas pedal if you’re in a rush and want to get to your destination faster.\nRobo-investing platforms use advanced-trading algorithm software to design investment portfolios based on factors such as an individual’s appetite for risk-taking and desired short-term and long-term returns.\nThere are over 200 platforms that provide these services charging typically no more than a 0.5% annual advisory fee, compared to the 1% annual fee human investment advisors charge.\nAnd rather than investing entirely on your own, which can become a second job and lead to emotional investment decisions, robo advisers handle buying and selling assets.\nCynthia Loh, Schwab vice president of Digital Advice and Innovation, disagrees, and argues that robo investing doesn’t mean giving technology control of your money. Schwab, she said, has a team of investment experts who oversee investment strategy and keep watch during periods of market volatility, although some services have more input from humans than others.\nAs she recently wrote on MarketWatch: “One common misconception about automated investing is that choosing a robo adviser essentially means handing control of your money over to robots. The truth is that robo solutions have a combination of automated and human components running things behind the scenes.”\nRobos appeal to inexperienced investors\nRobo investing tends to appeal to inexperienced investors or ones who don’t have the time or energy to manage their own portfolios. These investors can take comfort in the “set it and forget it approach to investing and overtime let the markets do their thing,” Barse said.\nThat makes it much easier to stomach market volatility knowing that you don’t necessarily have to make spur-of-the-moment decisions to buy or sell assets, said Tiffany Lam-Balfour, an investing and retirement specialist at NerdWallet.\n“When you’re investing, you don’t want to keep looking at the market and going ‘Oh I need to get out of this,’” she said. “You want to leave it to the professionals to get you through it because they know what your time horizon is, and they’ll adjust your portfolio automatically for you.”\nThat said, “you can’t just expect your investments will only go up. Even if you had the world’s best human financial adviser you can’t expect that.”\nOthers disagree, and say robo advisers appeal to older investors. “Planning for and paying yourself in retirement is complex. There are many options out there to help investors through it, and robo investing is one of them,” Loh said.\n“Many thoughtful, long-term investors have discovered that they want a more modern, streamlined, and inexpensive way to invest, and robo investing fits the bill. They are happy to let technology handle the mundane activities that are harder and more time-consuming for investors to do themselves,” she added.\nThere is often no door to knock on\nYour robo adviser only knows what you tell it. The simplistic questionnaire you’re required to fill out will on most robo-investing platforms will collect information on your annual income, desired age to retire and the level of risk you’re willing to take on.\nIt won’t however know if you just had a child and would like to begin saving for their education down the road or if you recently lost your job.\n“The question then becomes to whom does that person go to for advice and does that platform offer that and if so, to what level of complexity?” said Barse.\nNot all platforms give individualized investment advice and the hybrid models that do offer advice from a human tend to charge higher annual fees.\nAdditionally, a robo adviser won’t necessarily “manage your money with tax efficiency at front of mind,” said Roger Ma, a certified financial planner at Lifelaidout, a New York City-based financial advisory group.\nFor instance, one common way investors offset the taxes they pay on long-term investments is by selling assets that have accrued losses. Traditional advisers often specialize in constructing portfolios that lead to the most tax-efficient outcomes, said Ma, who is the author of “Work Your Money, Not Your Life”.\nBut with robo investing, the trades that are made for you are the same ones that are being made for a slew of other investors who may fall under a different tax-bracket than you.\nOn top of that, while robo investing may feel like a simplistic way to get into investing, especially for beginners it can “overcomplicate investing,” Ma said.\n“If you are just looking to dip your toe in and you want to feel like you’re invested in a diversified portfolio, I wouldn’t say definitely don’t do a robo adviser,” he said.\nDon’t rule out investing through a target-date fund that selects a single fund to invest in and adjusts the position over time based on their investment goals, he added.\nBut not everyone can tell the difference between robo advice and advice from a human being. In 2015, MarketWatch asked four prominent robo advisers and four of the traditional, flesh-and-blood variety to construct portfolios for a hypothetical 35-year-old investor with $40,000 to invest.\nThe results were, perhaps, surprising for critics of robo advisers. The robots’ suggestions were “not massively different” from what the human advisers proposed, said Michael Kitces, Pinnacle Advisory Group’s research director, after reviewing the results.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3276,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":365066391,"gmtCreate":1614680337813,"gmtModify":1703479764991,"author":{"id":"3572491876154529","authorId":"3572491876154529","name":"YangL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572491876154529","authorIdStr":"3572491876154529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Down, down, down&nbsp;","listText":"Down, down, down&nbsp;","text":"Down, down, down","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/365066391","repostId":"1105841550","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105841550","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614600153,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105841550?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-01 20:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105841550","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark ri","content":"<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>总结：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股权更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险聚类分析</b>显示最新的头寸分析、旗舰 Ark Innovation ETF 中的交叉相关性以及回撤分析。昨天，对于这个风险集群来说，又是一个糟糕的交易日，Ark Invest 的所有 ETF 都出现了资金流出，突显出风险情绪已经发生了变化。随着创始人本周大胆增加在特斯拉的头寸，这一风险集群可能会变成丑陋的强制抛售动态，不仅给特斯拉、比特币和方舟基金带来痛苦，也给美国生物技术股票带来痛苦。方舟投资是其中的主要持有者，在选定的名称中拥有较高的所有权。一个多月前，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的事情，因为特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性正在飙升。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大的重叠，因为这两种工具都是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了 Ark Invest，其著名的 Ark Innovation ETF 在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人 Cathie Wood 是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的坚定信徒。这类人坚信技术主要对社会的各个方面都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上的高度财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和像奇点大学这样的机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的网络营销机器将普通人吸入游戏。最近，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又以实际行动为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了 15 亿美元，从而大大增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互促进，形成了正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔 ”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟立场更新、凯西-伍德的大胆举动以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及对未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的担忧。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面上升，凯西·伍德一度认为有必要公开支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了他们在特斯拉的头寸，未来使用大量数字来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你有看到大量资金流出的风险时，你应该首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸，同时你可以控制局面。因为如果你被迫通过救赎来做这件事，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时 Ark Invest 的最新持仓情况。方舟投资持有流通股10%以上的股票仍有26只。如果方舟投资突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负面反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也要注意，美国生物技术股票在这份流通股比例较高的股票名单中所占比例过高。如果 Ark Invest 突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物技术股票的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会蔓延到整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>方舟投资基金持有的合并所有权超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升到资产管理规模的7%，前五名现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square 最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以 1.7 亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在方舟创新 ETF 本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的 10.2%，加上Roku (6%) 和 Square (5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的 21.6%。如果你看看方舟创新ETF中的10个最大头寸，那么共同的主线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价很低。除了特斯拉，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股票风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司更具主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本变了。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest AUM 在所有基金中排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上升和下降异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升，无论是资产类别还是单只股票。下图显示了自 2020 年初以来 Ark Innovation ETF 的 10 天移动互相关。它最近已经上升到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且从几周前的0.2迅速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待风险的方法是绘制自 2015 年 12 月以来 Ark Innovation ETF 与纳斯达克 100 指数的回撤情况。<b>ETF 的回撤幅度通常是纳斯达克 100 指数的 1.22 倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为 2.44，因此表明 Ark Innovation ETF 正在发生一些特殊情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金流出继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，因为它是一个异常值，表明风险的负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Build Me An Ark': The Tsunami Of Risk Of Tesla-Bitcoin-Cathie Wood Is Coming<blockquote>“为我建造一艘方舟”：特斯拉-比特币-凯西·伍德的风险海啸即将到来</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-01 20:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><u><b>Summary:</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>总结：</b></u></blockquote></p><p>   In today's equity update we are following up on our  <b>analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster</b>showing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.  A little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that&nbsp;Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation&nbsp;which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.</p><p><blockquote>在今天的股权更新中，我们将跟进我们的<b>特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险聚类分析</b>显示最新的头寸分析、旗舰 Ark Innovation ETF 中的交叉相关性以及回撤分析。昨天，对于这个风险集群来说，又是一个糟糕的交易日，Ark Invest 的所有 ETF 都出现了资金流出，突显出风险情绪已经发生了变化。随着创始人本周大胆增加在特斯拉的头寸，这一风险集群可能会变成丑陋的强制抛售动态，不仅给特斯拉、比特币和方舟基金带来痛苦，也给美国生物技术股票带来痛苦。方舟投资是其中的主要持有者，在选定的名称中拥有较高的所有权。一个多月前，我们首次将特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群标记为值得注意的事情，因为特斯拉和比特币之间的短期相关性正在飙升。嘉信理财的一项调查也证实了我们的怀疑，即存在很大的重叠，因为这两种工具都是千禧一代持有的前五大工具之一。我们的分析很快让我们找到了 Ark Invest，其著名的 Ark Innovation ETF 在特斯拉拥有大量头寸，其魅力四射的创始人 Cathie Wood 是硅谷所谓颠覆性创新文化的坚定信徒。这类人坚信技术主要对社会的各个方面都有好处，比特币是防止未来财富被没收的一种保护，由于历史上的高度财富不平等，这很可能是不可避免的。</blockquote></p><p> This disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.</p><p><blockquote>这种颠覆性的创新文化是强大的。它是由这个星球上一些最富有的人提出的。关于创新和像奇点大学这样的机构的无休止的介绍促进了这些观点。在比特币背后，你会发现一个巨大的网络营销机器将普通人吸入游戏。最近，埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）等富人公开支持比特币，先是以书面形式，后来又以实际行动为特斯拉的资产负债表增加了 15 亿美元，从而大大增加了其盈利波动性。特斯拉-比特币-方舟三角及其各自的势头相互促进，形成了正反馈循环，吸引更多投资者进入这些工具。正如我们本周所看到的，“风险之塔 ”开始出现裂缝。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Ark position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology</b></p><p><blockquote><b>方舟立场更新、凯西-伍德的大胆举动以及生物技术面临的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> This week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that&nbsp;she had increased their position in Tesla&nbsp;using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.</p><p><blockquote>本周，特斯拉-比特币-方舟都面临着来自政府对比特币的负面声音的压力，以及对未来几年特斯拉真正竞争的担忧。风险集群显然在一起移动，相关性开始上升。周二，波动性全面上升，凯西·伍德一度认为有必要公开支持她的基金，并表示她已经增加了他们在特斯拉的头寸，未来使用大量数字来证明增加风险的合理性。这是一个大胆的举动，但它大大增加了风险。当你有看到大量资金流出的风险时，你应该首先开始减少流动性最差的头寸，同时你可以控制局面。因为如果你被迫通过救赎来做这件事，游戏就会发生巨大的变化。</blockquote></p><p> The tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了截至昨天收盘时 Ark Invest 的最新持仓情况。方舟投资持有流通股10%以上的股票仍有26只。如果方舟投资突然与特斯拉和比特币一起陷入负面反馈循环，这可能会成为一个严重的问题。但也要注意，美国生物技术股票在这份流通股比例较高的股票名单中所占比例过高。如果 Ark Invest 突然经历全面资金外流，就像昨天一样，那么他们可能会突然成为美国生物技术股票的被迫卖家，而他们是鲸鱼。尽管该集团是多元化的，但这可能会蔓延到整个美国生物技术领域。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Stocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares</i></p><p><blockquote><i>方舟投资基金持有的合并所有权超过流通股10%的股票</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b97684f80243d32efc06f3379d51d4fb\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"353\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了所有基金的最大头寸。在这里，特斯拉现在已经跃升到资产管理规模的7%，前五名现在占资产管理规模的21.6%。最大的五只股票是特斯拉、Teladoc Health、Square、Roku和百度。Square 最近刚刚公布了令人失望的第四季度收益，并宣布以 1.7 亿美元收购比特币，进一步增加了该风险集群的风险和反馈循环。在方舟创新 ETF 本身中，特斯拉目前占资产的 10.2%，加上Roku (6%) 和 Square (5.4%)，这三只股票占资产的 21.6%。如果你看看方舟创新ETF中的10个最大头寸，那么共同的主线是它们都具有非常高的股票估值，因此隐含的股票风险溢价很低。除了特斯拉，它们也主要是股权融资，这意味着WACC（资本成本）主要来自股权成本。由于隐含股票风险溢价较低，无风险利率比微软或苹果等公司更具主导地位。这意味着利率上升可能会突然导致股票估值发生巨大变化。不是因为未来不同，而是因为资本成本变了。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Top positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds</i></p><p><blockquote><i>Ark Invest AUM 在所有基金中排名靠前</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7e06fcb66d5a52e629b48c9cab492586\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"302\">Source: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：Ark Invest、彭博社和盛宝集团</blockquote></p><p> <u><b>Correlations on the rise and drawdown outlier</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>上升和下降异常值的相关性</b></u></blockquote></p><p> The best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.</p><p><blockquote>风险失控的最佳迹象总是快速上升，无论是资产类别还是单只股票。下图显示了自 2020 年初以来 Ark Innovation ETF 的 10 天移动互相关。它最近已经上升到0.6左右，虽然这不是一个新的记录，但方向是上升的，并且从几周前的0.2迅速上升。下周对于特斯拉-比特币-方舟风险集群来说至关重要，因为负反馈循环可能是暴力的，其结果非常不可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ab96aaafda10c2371b1d3a1a14c4a48a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"280\"><i>Source: Bloomberg and Saxo Group</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社和盛宝集团</i></blockquote></p><p> Another way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.<b>The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100</b>. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.</p><p><blockquote>另一种看待风险的方法是绘制自 2015 年 12 月以来 Ark Innovation ETF 与纳斯达克 100 指数的回撤情况。<b>ETF 的回撤幅度通常是纳斯达克 100 指数的 1.22 倍</b>截至昨天，该比率为 2.44，因此表明 Ark Innovation ETF 正在发生一些特殊情况。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/80db26e42e2910071718ff22a1ff3f2b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"308\"><b>If outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>如果今天资金流出继续，特斯拉再次面临压力，那么该指标很可能会创下新纪录，因为它是一个异常值，表明风险的负反馈循环已经开始。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GBTC":"比特币ETF-Grayscale","ARKG":"ARK Genomic Revolution ETF","ARKR":"Ark Restaurants Corp","ARKQ":"ARK Autonomous Technology & Robotics ETF","TSLA":"特斯拉","ARKF":"ARK Fintech Innovation ETF","ARKK":"ARK Innovation ETF","ARKW":"ARK Next Generation Internet ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/build-me-ark-tsunami-risk-tesla-bitcoin-cathie-wood-coming","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105841550","content_text":"Summary:\n\n In today's equity update we are following up on our\n analysis of the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk clustershowing an updated positions analysis, cross-correlations in the flagship Ark Innovation ETF, and an drawdown analysis. Yesterday, was another bad session for this risk cluster and Ark Invest had a day with outflows across all their ETFs highlighting that risk sentiment has changed. With the founder's bold move to increase the position in Tesla during the week the risk has gone up that this risk cluster could turn into an ugly forced selling dynamic causing pain in not only Tesla, Bitcoin, and Ark funds, but also US biotechnology stocks where Ark Invest is a major holder with high ownership in selected names.\n\nA little over a month ago we first flagged the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as something to take note off as short-term correlation between Tesla and Bitcoin was shooting up. A survey from Charles Schwab also confirmed our suspicion that there is a big overlap as these two instruments are among the top five holdings by millennials. Our analysis quickly led us to Ark Invest with its famous Ark Innovation ETF which had a big position in Tesla and its charismatic founder Cathie Wood is a big believer in the so-called disruptive innovation culture of Silicon Valley. This class of people believe firmly in technology as mainly good for society in all its aspects and that Bitcoin is a protection against future wealth confiscation which is most likely inevitable due to historically high wealth inequality.\nThis disruptive innovation culture is powerful. It is presented by some of the wealthiest people of this planet. Endless presentation about innovation and institutions like the Singularity University promote these views. Behind Bitcoin you find a huge online marketing machine sucking ordinary people into the game. Recently wealthy people such as Elon Musk has openly supported Bitcoin, first in writing and later in action adding $1.5bn to Tesla’s balance sheet and thereby significantly increasing its earnings volatility. The triangle of Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark and their respective momentum has reinforced each other creating a positive feedback loop luring more investors into these instruments. As we have seen this week the ‘tower of risk’ is beginning to show cracks.\nArk position update and Cathie Wood’s bold move and the risk to biotechnology\nThis week Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark all came under pressure from negative voices in governments over Bitcoin and beginning noise over real competition for Tesla in the coming years. The risk cluster was clearly moving together, and correlations started rising. On Tuesday, volatility picked up across the board and at one point Cathie Wood felt it was necessary to go public supporting her funds and said that she had increased their position in Tesla using big numbers in the future to justify increasing the risk. This is a bold move, but it increases the risk considerably. When you are at risk of seeing sizeable outflows, you should start reducing the most illiquid positions first while you can control the situation. Because if you are forced to do it by redemptions the game changes dramatically.\nThe tables below show updated Ark Invest positions as of yesterday’s close. There are still 26 stocks where Ark Invest holds more than 10% of the outstanding shares. This could become a serious problem if Ark Invest is suddenly caught in a negative feedback loop together with Tesla and Bitcoin. But also note how US biotechnology stocks are overrepresented in this list of stocks with high ownership in percentage of outstanding shares. If Ark Invest suddenly experience across the board outflows, like it did yesterday, then they can suddenly be the forced seller in US biotechnology stocks where they are the whale. This could cascade into the overall US biotechnology segment although the group is diverse.\nStocks held by Ark Invest funds with combined ownership above 10% of outstanding shares\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nThe table below shows the largest positions across all funds. Here Tesla has now jumped to 7% of AUM and the first five positions now account for 21.6% of AUM. The five biggest stocks are Tesla, Teladoc Health, Square, Roku, and Baidu. Square just recently reported disappointing Q4 earnings and announced the purchase of $170mn of Bitcoin increasing the risk and feedback loop further in this risk cluster. In the Ark Innovation ETF itself, Tesla is now 10.2% of assets and together with Roku (6%) and Square (5.4%) these three stocks represent 21.6% of assets. If you look at the 10 largest positions in the Ark Innovation ETF then the red thread is that they all come with very high equity valuations and thus low implied equity risk premiums. They are all also mostly equity financed, except for Tesla, which means that the WACC, cost of capital, predominantly come from the cost of equity. With low implied equity risk premiums, the risk-free rate dominates much more than for a company such as say Microsoft or Apple. This means that the rising interest rates could suddenly cause a huge shift in equity valuations. Not because the future is different but because the cost of capital has changed.\nTop positions in terms of Ark Invest AUM across all funds\nSource: Ark Invest, Bloomberg, and Saxo Group\nCorrelations on the rise and drawdown outlier\nThe best sign of risk going haywire is always fast rising cross-correlations whether it is on asset classes or single stocks. The chart below shows the 10-day moving cross-correlation in the Ark Innovation ETF since early 2020. It has recently moved to around 0.6 and while it is not a new record the direction is up and has been fast coming from only 0.2 from a few weeks ago. The next week will be critical for the Tesla-Bitcoin-Ark risk cluster as negative feedback loops can be violent and very unpredictable in their outcome.\nSource: Bloomberg and Saxo Group\nAnother way of looking at risk is by plotting Ark Innovation ETF drawdowns against that of Nasdaq 100 since December 2015.The ETF has typically experienced a drawdown that is 1.22 times larger than that of Nasdaq 100. As of yesterday, the ratio stands at 2.44 and thus illustrates that something idiosyncratic is taking place at Ark Innovation ETF.\nIf outflows continue today and Tesla comes under pressure again then this indicator could very well hit a new record in terms of being an outlier signaling a negative feedback loop on risk has started.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GBTC":0.9,"ARKK":0.9,"ARKF":0.9,"ARKG":0.9,"ARKW":0.9,"ARKR":0.9,"ARKQ":0.9,"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369277411,"gmtCreate":1614054067133,"gmtModify":1634551378333,"author":{"id":"3572491876154529","authorId":"3572491876154529","name":"YangL","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572491876154529","authorIdStr":"3572491876154529"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bad","listText":"Bad","text":"Bad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369277411","repostId":"1175731087","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175731087","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614049350,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175731087?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 11:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175731087","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer Tesla is now in bear-market territory. That’s a problem for the entire EV sector.Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.Of course, Tesla is the 800-pound gorilla in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Stree","content":"<p>Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is now in&nbsp;bear-market&nbsp;territory. That’s a problem for the entire&nbsp;EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先驱特斯拉的股票目前处于熊市区域。这是整个电动汽车行业的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一收盘下跌 8.6%，至每股 714.50 美元。这使它们比 1 月份触及的 52 周高点 900.40 美元下跌了近 186 美元。下降了约 21%。</blockquote></p><p>It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这个术语通常适用于广泛的股票群体，这么说似乎很奇怪，但特斯拉股票出现了新的熊市——从高点下跌了 20%。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, Tesla is the&nbsp;800-pound gorilla&nbsp;in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉是电动汽车领域的800磅重的大猩猩。它的价值几乎相当于所有其他传统汽车制造商的总和。当特斯拉股价下跌时，其他电动汽车股票也会随之下跌，因为华尔街通常会依靠特斯拉的估值来制定目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, shares of three other&nbsp;high-flying&nbsp;EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>周一，其他三只销量可观的电动汽车股票——蔚来（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）——的股价下跌了约 7% 至 8%。自特斯拉股价创下历史新高以来，蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车的股价平均下跌了约 20%，就像特斯拉一样。</blockquote></p><p>It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.</p><p><blockquote>看起来特斯拉是电动汽车股票的基准，就像标普500是美国股票的比较基础一样。这为电动汽车投资者提出了一个有趣的想法：测试版的特斯拉版本。从某种意义上说，贝塔概念可以被视为衡量股票系统性风险的指标。市场的走势与个股的贝塔系数有关。</blockquote></p><p>If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&amp;P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果一只股票的贝塔系数为 2，那么如果市场上涨 1%，预计它将上涨约 2%。贝塔值并不总是高于 1。例如，标准普尔 500 指数中的金矿公司的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此如果大盘指数上涨，它们的涨幅不会那么快。</blockquote></p><p>Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&amp;P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以将黄金贝塔系数解释为，这些黄金股票发生的事情中，大约有一半是由标普500发生的事情解释的，另一半是由其他因素造成的，如金价的走势。</blockquote></p><p>Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.</p><p><blockquote>贝塔只是一个数学计算。如果投资者愿意，他们可以计算股票相对于中央公园大气压力的贝塔值。然而，数学必须有意义，所以没有人这样做。然而，就电动汽车而言，特斯拉对任何电动汽车股票来说都是一种风险，这种想法并不牵强。</blockquote></p><p>The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来、小鹏和理想这三只中国电动汽车股票的 “特斯拉贝塔”约为 0.5。就像黄金股一样，这可以被解释为说这三只股票发生的事情大约有一半是特斯拉股票发生的事情的函数。</blockquote></p><p>It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?</p><p><blockquote>这是个有趣的想法。但特斯拉股票到底发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p>It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一切都与通胀上升的可能性有关。由于金融贴现率的运作方式，通货膨胀加剧是市场越来越担心的问题，它往往会对高增长股票而不是低增长股票造成更大的惩罚。特斯拉的大部分现金流都来自未来几年，而当利率上升时，未来现金流的价值就会降低。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>周一，许多成长型股票都表现不佳。众所周知，许多快速增长的科技公司所在地纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%。特斯拉相对于纳斯达克的贝塔值约为 2，因此投资者对特斯拉股价下跌 5% 并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site&nbsp;Electrek&nbsp;reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，特斯拉股价下跌了 9%。额外的4%仍然是个谜。据新闻网站 Electrek 报道，特斯拉已停止接受价格最低的 Model Y 的订单，但对价格较低的电动汽车车型的高需求并不是一件坏事。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/728e2afa9536498c3500bf3fdae26f29\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;is also spending a lot of time tweeting about&nbsp;cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也花了很多时间在推特上谈论加密货币。这可能会让特斯拉投资者感到不安。然而，他的推特与近期的历史并没有什么不同。马斯克因其在许多话题上的推文而闻名。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Stock Is in a Bear Market. It’s Taking Other EV Stocks With It.<blockquote>特斯拉股票正处于熊市。它还带动了其他电动汽车股票。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 11:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;is now in&nbsp;bear-market&nbsp;territory. That’s a problem for the entire&nbsp;EV sector.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车先驱特斯拉的股票目前处于熊市区域。这是整个电动汽车行业的问题。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价周一收盘下跌 8.6%，至每股 714.50 美元。这使它们比 1 月份触及的 52 周高点 900.40 美元下跌了近 186 美元。下降了约 21%。</blockquote></p><p>It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到这个术语通常适用于广泛的股票群体，这么说似乎很奇怪，但特斯拉股票出现了新的熊市——从高点下跌了 20%。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, Tesla is the&nbsp;800-pound gorilla&nbsp;in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.</p><p><blockquote>当然，特斯拉是电动汽车领域的800磅重的大猩猩。它的价值几乎相当于所有其他传统汽车制造商的总和。当特斯拉股价下跌时，其他电动汽车股票也会随之下跌，因为华尔街通常会依靠特斯拉的估值来制定目标价。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, shares of three other&nbsp;high-flying&nbsp;EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and&nbsp;Li Auto&nbsp;shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.</p><p><blockquote>周一，其他三只销量可观的电动汽车股票——蔚来（蔚来）、小鹏汽车（XPEV）和理想汽车（LI）——的股价下跌了约 7% 至 8%。自特斯拉股价创下历史新高以来，蔚来、小鹏和理想汽车的股价平均下跌了约 20%，就像特斯拉一样。</blockquote></p><p>It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.</p><p><blockquote>看起来特斯拉是电动汽车股票的基准，就像标普500是美国股票的比较基础一样。这为电动汽车投资者提出了一个有趣的想法：测试版的特斯拉版本。从某种意义上说，贝塔概念可以被视为衡量股票系统性风险的指标。市场的走势与个股的贝塔系数有关。</blockquote></p><p>If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&amp;P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.</p><p><blockquote>例如，如果一只股票的贝塔系数为 2，那么如果市场上涨 1%，预计它将上涨约 2%。贝塔值并不总是高于 1。例如，标准普尔 500 指数中的金矿公司的贝塔系数约为 0.5，因此如果大盘指数上涨，它们的涨幅不会那么快。</blockquote></p><p>Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&amp;P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.</p><p><blockquote>投资者可以将黄金贝塔系数解释为，这些黄金股票发生的事情中，大约有一半是由标普500发生的事情解释的，另一半是由其他因素造成的，如金价的走势。</blockquote></p><p>Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.</p><p><blockquote>贝塔只是一个数学计算。如果投资者愿意，他们可以计算股票相对于中央公园大气压力的贝塔值。然而，数学必须有意义，所以没有人这样做。然而，就电动汽车而言，特斯拉对任何电动汽车股票来说都是一种风险，这种想法并不牵强。</blockquote></p><p>The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来、小鹏和理想这三只中国电动汽车股票的 “特斯拉贝塔”约为 0.5。就像黄金股一样，这可以被解释为说这三只股票发生的事情大约有一半是特斯拉股票发生的事情的函数。</blockquote></p><p>It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?</p><p><blockquote>这是个有趣的想法。但特斯拉股票到底发生了什么？</blockquote></p><p>It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.</p><p><blockquote>这一切都与通胀上升的可能性有关。由于金融贴现率的运作方式，通货膨胀加剧是市场越来越担心的问题，它往往会对高增长股票而不是低增长股票造成更大的惩罚。特斯拉的大部分现金流都来自未来几年，而当利率上升时，未来现金流的价值就会降低。</blockquote></p><p>Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The&nbsp;Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.</p><p><blockquote>周一，许多成长型股票都表现不佳。众所周知，许多快速增长的科技公司所在地纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%。特斯拉相对于纳斯达克的贝塔值约为 2，因此投资者对特斯拉股价下跌 5% 并不感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p>Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site&nbsp;Electrek&nbsp;reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.</p><p><blockquote>不过，特斯拉股价下跌了 9%。额外的4%仍然是个谜。据新闻网站 Electrek 报道，特斯拉已停止接受价格最低的 Model Y 的订单，但对价格较低的电动汽车车型的高需求并不是一件坏事。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/728e2afa9536498c3500bf3fdae26f29\" tg-width=\"642\" tg-height=\"213\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>CEO&nbsp;Elon Musk&nbsp;is also spending a lot of time tweeting about&nbsp;cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.</p><p><blockquote>首席执行官埃隆·马斯克也花了很多时间在推特上谈论加密货币。这可能会让特斯拉投资者感到不安。然而，他的推特与近期的历史并没有什么不同。马斯克因其在许多话题上的推文而闻名。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-in-a-bear-market-its-taking-other-ev-stocks-with-it-51614034570?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来","XPEV":"小鹏集团","TSLA":"特斯拉","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-is-in-a-bear-market-its-taking-other-ev-stocks-with-it-51614034570?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175731087","content_text":"Stock in the electric- vehicle pioneer Tesla is now in bear-market territory. That’s a problem for the entire EV sector.Tesla shares closed down 8.6% Monday at $714.50 a share. That leaves them down almost $186 from the 52-week high of $900.40 they reached in January. That’s a drop of roughly 21%.It seems odd to say, given that the term is usually applied to broad groups of stocks, but there is a new bear market—a drop of 20% from a high—in Tesla shares.Of course, Tesla is the 800-pound gorilla in the EV sector. It is worth almost as much as all other traditional car makers combined. And when Tesla stock drops, other EV stocks follow because Wall Street often relies on Tesla’s valuation to come up with price targets.Monday, shares of three other high-flying EV stocks with significant sales—NIO(NIO),XPeng(XPEV) andLi Auto(LI)—fell roughly 7% to 8%. And since Tesla stock hit its all-time high, NIO, XPeng and Li Auto shares are down roughly 20% on average, just like Tesla.It looks as if Tesla is the benchmark for EV stocks just like the S&P 500 is the basis for comparison for U.S. stocks. That raises an interesting idea for EV investors: the Tesla version of beta. The beta concept can be thought of, in a sense, as a measure of a stock’s systemic risk. What happens to a market is linked to what happens to an individual stock by that stock’s beta.If a stock, for instance, has a beta of 2, it would be expected to rise about 2% if the market rose 1%. Beta values aren’t always above 1. Gold-mining companies in theS&P 500,for instance, have a beta of roughly 0.5, so they don’t rise as fast if the broader index goes up.Investors can interpret the gold beta as saying roughly half of what happens to those golds stock is explained by what happens to the S&P 500, and the other half is due to other factors, such as what’s going on with gold prices.Beta is just a mathematical calculation. Investors, if they want, can calculate a stock’s beta relative to atmospheric pressure in Central Park. The math has to mean something, though, so no one does that. In the case of EVs, however, the idea of Tesla-as-risk to any EV stock doesn’t feel like a stretch.The “Tesla beta” of the three Chinese EV stocks—NIO, XPeng and Li—is about 0.5. That can be interpreted, as with gold stocks, as saying about half of what happens to those three shares is a function of what happens to Tesla stock.It’s an interesting idea. But what is happening to Tesla stock anyway?It’s all about the potential for higher inflation. Increasing inflation, a growing concern in the market, tends to punish high-growth stocks more than low-growth stocks because of the way financial discount rates work. Most of Tesla’s cash flow comes in future years, and future cash flow is worth less today when interest rates rise.Monday, many growth stocks took it on the chin. The Nasdaq Composite,known as the home of many fast-growing tech companies, fell 2.5%. Tesla’s beta value relative to the Nasdaq is about 2, so investors shouldn’t be surprised by a 5% drop in Tesla stock.Tesla shares fell 9%, though. The extra 4% remains a mystery. The news site Electrek reported Tesla stopped taking orders for its lowest-priced Model Y, but high demand for lower-price EV models isn’t really a bad thing.CEO Elon Musk is also spending a lot of time tweeting about cryptocurrencies. That might be unnerving Tesla investors. His tweeting, however, isn’t really any different than recent history. Musk is famous for his tweeting on lots of topics.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TSLA":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2856,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}