Chloe26的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2022-02-20

Ok

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2022-02-17

Meta

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2022-02-15

Sea

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2022-02-13

Roblox

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2022-02-12

Inflation

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2022-02-11

Ok

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2022-02-11

Ok

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2022-02-10

Inflation

Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote>

2022-02-09

Zoom

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2022-02-06

Ok

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2022-02-05

Pltr

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>

2022-02-04

Meta

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2022-02-01

Pltr

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2022-01-29

Ok

Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>

2022-01-26

Noted

These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>

2022-01-25

Noted

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2022-01-24

[Smile]

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2022-01-20

Ok

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2022-01-14

Great

3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote>

2022-01-12

Palantir

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644499821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173531022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-10 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173531022","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>过去12个月，1月份消费者价格飙升超过预期，表明通胀前景恶化，并巩固了今年大幅加息的可能性。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，衡量数十种日常消费品成本的消费者价格指数较去年同期上涨7.5%。</blockquote></p><p>That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，道琼斯对备受关注的通胀指标的估计为7.2%。这是自1982年2月以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>剔除挥发性天然气和食品杂货成本，CPI上涨6%，而预期为5.9%。</blockquote></p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p><blockquote>月度利率也高于预期，总体CPI和核心CPI均上涨0.6%，而这两项指标的预期均上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p><p><blockquote>核心通胀升至1982年8月以来最快水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982<blockquote>过去一年通货膨胀率上升7.5%，为1982年以来最高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2022-02-10 21:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>过去12个月，1月份消费者价格飙升超过预期，表明通胀前景恶化，并巩固了今年大幅加息的可能性。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>美国劳工部周四报告称，衡量数十种日常消费品成本的消费者价格指数较去年同期上涨7.5%。</blockquote></p><p>That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p><blockquote>相比之下，道琼斯对备受关注的通胀指标的估计为7.2%。这是自1982年2月以来的最高读数。</blockquote></p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p><blockquote>剔除挥发性天然气和食品杂货成本，CPI上涨6%，而预期为5.9%。</blockquote></p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p><blockquote>月度利率也高于预期，总体CPI和核心CPI均上涨0.6%，而这两项指标的预期均上涨0.4%。</blockquote></p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p><p><blockquote>核心通胀升至1982年8月以来最快水平。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173531022","content_text":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NQmain":0.9,"YMmain":0.9,"ESmain":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633746630,"gmtCreate":1644363144623,"gmtModify":1644363144805,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom","listText":"Zoom","text":"Zoom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633746630","repostId":"2209583985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2390,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633289792,"gmtCreate":1644125903943,"gmtModify":1644125904110,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633289792","repostId":"1105432695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633201726,"gmtCreate":1644064783506,"gmtModify":1644064783607,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633201726","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购、（2）扩张和（3）规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?<blockquote>Palantir：危险信号还是机遇？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-02-05 11:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body><b>总结</b></body></html></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir总共只有203名客户，而其中只有20名客户占总收入的58%。</li><li>与2020年相比，2021年前三季度Palantir核心客户群的年化收入增长放缓至20%。</li><li>2021年，Palantir从根本上改变了其上市战略。该公司目前正在利用其现金积极投资同意购买Palantir软件的其他公司（被投资方）。</li><li>管理层继续指导到十年中期销售额增长30%。然而，Palantir的三阶段业务模式暗示，不包括其被投资方的销售额，销售额呈下降趋势。</li><li>Palantir提供了非凡的长期增长潜力，这应该使其成为所有成长型投资者的观察名单。投资案例建立在机会和危险信号之间的支点上。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>agawa288/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>我给予Palantir（纽约证券交易所股票代码：PLTR）中性风险/回报评级，因为长期增长机会被近期危险信号所抵消。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，一些值得注意的危险信号值得谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。</blockquote></p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险/回报评级：中性</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><blockquote>与企业软件领域的同行相比，Palantir在获取和扩大客户群方面拥有不同寻常的商业模式。该公司根据三个发展阶段或群体对其客户进行分类：（1）收购、（2）扩张和（3）规模。虽然它们是适用于所有企业的通用术语，但由于该公司对待客户的方式，它们在Palantir的情况下是独一无二的。</blockquote></p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p><blockquote><b>客户详细信息</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir将收购群体中的客户定义为截至年底收入低于100,000美元且对Palantir无利可图的客户。扩展群组的特点是一个销售额超过100,000美元但仍未盈利的客户。最后，规模群体被定义为在这一年中为Palantir创造了超过100,000美元收入且具有盈利关系的客户。</blockquote></p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p><blockquote>下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。第一个表显示了Palantir在2020年底分类的每个客户群体的2020年销售额（2020年收入）。在2021年年化栏中，您会发现这些2020年客户群到2021年第三季度的年化销售额。在第二组表格中，我汇编了过去12个月Palantir最大客户的关键详细信息，以及与2021年Palantir新客户相关的关键详细信息，这些客户尚未分配到某个群组。队列分类在每年年底进行。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p><blockquote>为了便于比较，我对相关信息进行了颜色编码。Palantir的主要现实之一是其集中的客户群，以蓝色突出显示。Palantir只有203个客户，前20名占销售额的58%。</blockquote></p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>根据定义，Palantir最大的客户属于规模群体。到2021年前三季度，规模队列（2020年底分类）以20%的年化速度增长。鉴于该群体占Palantir收入的86%，如果没有其他两个群体的爆炸性增长或规模群体的实质性加速，将销售增长率大幅提高到20%以上将具有挑战性。应该指出的是，管理层指导到十年中期年销售额增长30%。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p><blockquote>上表中以黄色突出显示了2020年底收购和扩展队列。在年终Palantir报告发布之前，2021年的新客户不会被分配到一个队列中。我用黄色突出显示了相关的2021年新客户数据，以便于与2020年获取和扩展客户群体进行比较。我认为2021年新客户销售业绩（不包括对被投资方的销售）是可持续的核心增长率。被投资方的客户获取策略非常不寻常，具有极高的资本风险，从而引入声誉风险，从而引入品牌风险。</blockquote></p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，这里的被投资方是指Palantir使用Palantir的软件购买其股票以换取被投资方的客户。这意味着，来自被投资方的收入是Palantir投资这些客户股票的回报。在这方面，这些不是公平交易。我认为，不包括对被投资方的销售的新客户数量是确定纯粹基于市场的新客户增长率的重要数据点。</blockquote></p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><blockquote>与2021年规模群体的年化增长率20%类似，到2021年第三季度，新客户销售额的年化增长率为22%，而2020年收购和扩张群体的销售额为2060万美元。虽然这不是新客户销售增长的完美比较，但这是一个公平的估计。因此，Palantir的基本销售增长率似乎倾向于接近20%，而不是该公司到十年中期30%的销售增长指导。</blockquote></p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p><blockquote><b>被投资方</b></blockquote></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p><blockquote>退一步回顾Palantir对被投资方的投资非常重要，因为这是一种非常不寻常的获取客户的上市策略。上述数字表明收入增长趋势为20%，这让Palantir使用资产负债表现金为新客户提供资金的方式有了新的认识。下表摘自Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q。第一个表格列出了截至2021年第三季度末Palantir资助的公司。第二个表格显示了Palantir对尚未获得资金的新公司的投资承诺。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p><blockquote>我对上述每家公司都进行了粗略的回顾。共同的主题是，它们都是最受欢迎的成长板块中的早期公司。这些行业包括电动汽车、机器人、飞行电动汽车、卫星服务和药物发现。似乎没有一家被投资方本身能够提供足够的升值潜力来大幅提高Palantir的估值。Palantir的持股比例为0.4%至1.6%。</blockquote></p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚每家公司有多少资金可以用于Palantir的软件。此外，目前尚不清楚这些公司截至2021年第三季度的1900万美元收入是否可持续。</blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>我在blue中强调了Palantir对这七家公司的总投资为1.5亿美元。黄色突出显示的单元格代表投资的当前估值。Palantir目前仅在这七家公司上就下跌了约6400万美元。这凸显了这种客户获取方法的极端风险，因为迄今为止的资本损失使产生的收入相形见绌。上面没有列出其他私营公司的投资，但是，Palantir没有透露细节。它们包含在Palantir资产负债表上的其他资产中，截至2021年第三季度，该资产总额为1.16亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p><blockquote>下表显示了Palantir截至2021年第三季度投资新公司的承诺。我用黄色突出显示了Palantir在2021年第三季度末后资助的两家公司。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><blockquote>我用蓝色突出显示了截至2021年第三季度新投资的总资金承诺。这是在第三季度末之前完成的1.5亿美元的基础上完成的2.52亿美元。虽然我没有研究过这些特定的公司，但它们似乎与上面回顾的前七项投资相似。这意味着，与Palantir软件业务固有的估值上涨空间相比，它们似乎具有极大的资本风险，但上涨潜力可能很小。需要注意的是，近期估值极端，继续快速收缩。因此，在VC/IPO周期的顶部进行投资也会增加资本损失的时间风险。</blockquote></p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>财务表现</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p><blockquote>谈到Palantir最近的表现，我选择将销售增长视为不包括被投资方，因为这是最有可能的可持续增长轨迹。下表摘自Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告。我通过去除被投资方的收入进行了调整，以得出净收入数字。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><blockquote>我用黄色突出显示了扣除被投资方收入后2021年第三季度29%的收入增长。被投资公司第三季度增长了6.5%。年初至今，被投资方收入占收入增长1.7%。29%的增长率已经低于该公司到十年中期30%的增长指导。请记住，随着Palantir投资承诺的额外资金，被投资方的收入流将会增长。无论如何，第三季度的增长率迅速放缓至29%，而不包括这些非公平销售，今年迄今的增长率为41%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>地理和细分市场销售</b></blockquote></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p><blockquote>销售放缓是由法国主导的，2021年前三个季度收缩了22%（下面用橙色突出显示）。应该指出的是，Palantir与空客和航空业有着重要的关系。对于一个重要的客户和行业来说，这可能是一个负面的解读。虽然美国在2021年第三季度仍然是表现最好的国家，但正如下面蓝色突出显示的单元格所证明的那样，增长正在迅速放缓。该表根据Palantir向SEC提交的2021年第三季度10-Q报告编制。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p><blockquote>除法国外，世界其他地区也在迅速放缓，从今年前9个月的45%降至2021年第三季度的20%。请注意，这些是未经任何调整的报告销售额。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，强调第三季度销售大幅放缓发生在政府部门。请记住，被投资方收入包含在下图中，并为商业部门第三季度增长率增加了约6.5%。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，商业部门的收入增长相当稳定，不包括被投资方收入，增长约29%。然而，政府部门正在迅速减速，从2021年前9个月的57%降至第三季度的34%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p><blockquote><b>毛利及关键绩效指标</b></blockquote></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir不同寻常的客户获取策略早于转向被投资方。该公司的销售和营销费用似乎与其他公司的销售成本非常相似。之所以如此，是因为Palantir为潜在客户提供免费的试点计划，而不是要求预先付费才能使用其软件。销售和营销人员执行试点计划并协调解决方案开发，以产生销售。以下引用2021年第三季度10-Q总结了情况：</blockquote></p><p>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p><blockquote>销售和营销成本主要包括工资、股票薪酬费用以及我们的销售人员和参与执行试点和客户增长活动的人员的福利...因此，我认为Palantir的销售和营销费用是销售商品的成本和毛利率的降低。虽然这种分类不会影响底线，但它确实有助于将报告的78%毛利率置于背景中。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这种对销售和营销费用的看法有助于思考Palantir相对于其他公司的商业模式以及依赖毛利率的相对估值。下表根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制，显示了通过从每个行项目中删除相关股票薪酬费用进行调整的报告收入成本以及销售和营销费用。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，与2021年前9个月的59%（以黄色突出显示）相比，第三季度调整后的毛利润增长大幅放缓至25%（在表格下部以蓝色突出显示）。与今年前九个月相比，2021年第三季度的销售成本迅速上升。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir利用一个KPI或关键绩效指标来判断绩效并为决策提供信息，称为贡献率。它与我上面调整后的毛利率数据类似，如下表所示，该表是根据Palantir 2021年第三季度10-Q编制的。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，贡献行与上表中调整后的毛利润行非常相似。此外，生长速率减速是相似的，如在突出显示的细胞中可以看到的。虽然37%与我估计的25%增长有很大不同，但低于64%的阶跃变化幅度相似。</blockquote></p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p><blockquote><b>营业收入</b></blockquote></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p><blockquote>谈到营业收入，我再次调整了报告的数据，剔除了股票期权相关费用以及与2020年直接上市IPO相关的一次性费用。最重要的信息再次是快速减速。下表是根据同一份SEC文件编制的，显示了不包括销售和营销费用的运营费用，以及我调整后的运营收入估计。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：stoxdox的Brian Kapp创建</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p><blockquote>在表格的下半部分，请注意2021年第三季度调整后营业收入令人难以置信地减速至40%的增长，而今年前9个月的增长为266%。一般和管理费用在2021年第三季度迅速增加，而Palantir在第三季度大幅减少了研发投资，仅增长了5%。</blockquote></p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p><blockquote>研发投资放缓可能会对销售增长产生负面影响，因为研发是销售过程中不可或缺的一部分。研发费用应该通过三个客户阶段来跟踪销售周期：获取、扩展和规模化。随着销售和营销部门确定客户需求，研发费用应响应未来销售潜力的增加。目前这似乎没有发生。</blockquote></p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年第三季度，Palantir调整后的年化营业收入运行率约为300至3.2亿美元，即每股约0.16美元。这是税前营业收入数字。营业收入方面的主要结论是盈利能力正在迅速放缓。这为正在部署的不同寻常的被投资方客户获取策略提供了额外的色彩。</blockquote></p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>共识增长估计</b></blockquote></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p><blockquote>如果Palantir的调整后年营业收入运行率为3.2亿美元，并且按25%的正常化税率征税，则当前的盈利能力将在2.4亿美元范围内，即稀释后每股0.12美元。有了这些信息和上面概述的增长减速，我们可以开始将普遍的盈利预测置于背景中。下表根据Seeking Alpha编制，显示了到2023年的普遍盈利和收入预测。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：寻求阿尔法。创建者：Brian Kapp，stoxdox</span></p></blockquote></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p><blockquote>我强调了对2022年盈利和销售增长的普遍预期。请注意，2022年39%的普遍盈利增长预期与2021年第三季度40%的营业收入增长一致。此外，30%的销售增长预期略高于2021年第三季度29%的调整后销售增长（不包括对被投资方的销售）。</blockquote></p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于2021年第三季度营业收入迅速放缓至40%，而今年前9个月的营业收入为266%，预计2022年39%的盈利增长似乎面临过高的重大风险。这一轨迹可能会使2022年的盈利增长率远低于39%。</blockquote></p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于Palantir对随后购买Palantir软件的被投资方采取了积极的投资策略，2022年30%的销售额增长预期似乎是可以实现的。我相信市场会像我一样对被投资方的销售打折。排除这些销售，2022年收入增长轨迹似乎接近20%，而不是30%，这为进一步的增长失望打开了大门。</blockquote></p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><blockquote>从2023年的共识预测来看，预期增长率与2022年非常相似。这种到2023年的直线增长预测增加了未来几年共识估计可能过高的风险。目前的轨迹表明，2022年和2023年的增长将大幅低于预期。</blockquote></p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir的交易价格是2021年普遍盈利预期的87倍，是2022年普遍盈利预期的62倍。请记住，这些是非GAAP（公认会计原则）盈利预测。根据公认会计准则，Palantir继续亏损生产。报告的2021年第三季度亏损为9200万美元，2021年前9个月亏损为3.52亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>使用非公认会计准则盈利预测，从历史市场角度来看，87倍的本年度盈利和62倍的预期盈利是极端估值。也就是说，它们是近年来成长型股票的可能性范围内的。考虑到Palantir迅速放缓的销售和营业收入增长率，以及共识估计可能过高的风险增加，目前共识估计的估值倍数几乎没有出错的余地。</blockquote></p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p><blockquote>在销售方面，Palantir的估值是2021年普遍收入预期的17倍，是2022年的13倍。从历史角度来看，对于大盘股公司来说，这些是极端的市销率倍数。我对核心销售增长趋势为20%（不包括被投资方收入）的估计表明，这些销售估值倍数也几乎没有误差。</blockquote></p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><blockquote>再加上营业收入增长迅速放缓，估值风险进一步上升。此外，从我截至2021年第三季度调整后的毛利率增长25%可以看出，Palantir的商业模式可能不支持历史上极端的市销率估值。</blockquote></p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术</b></blockquote></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p><blockquote>虽然基本面背景表明误差幅度很小，超额回报潜力减弱，但技术设置表明更有意义的上行回报潜力。下面的3年周线图提供了潜在技术回报谱的鸟瞰图。我用橙色水平线突出显示了关键阻力位，用绿线突出了主要支撑位。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Palantir 3年周线图。（由Brian Kapp使用Barchart.com的图表创建）</span></p></blockquote></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p><blockquote>最近阻力位19美元和22美元的回报潜力分别为43%和65%。下行方面，最近的支撑位于10美元附近的IPO价格区间。该水平的下行回报潜力为-25%。需要注意的是，Palantir 16个月的短暂交易历史限制了技术分析的有用性。此外，由于没有低于IPO价格的交易历史，尚不清楚如果向下突破10美元水平，将在哪里找到支撑。</blockquote></p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计低于10美元的下行潜力，我采用了2022年非GAAP共识盈利预测的40倍市盈率。这一估值是当前市场平均水平的两倍，Palantir股价将达到8美元。这意味着较当前水平的下行风险为-40%。</blockquote></p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p><blockquote>如果2022年39%的普遍盈利预期过高，则有可能从8美元进一步下跌。如果估计过高，为了估计潜在的下行风险，我将相同的40倍非GAAP收益应用于Palantir当前完全纳税、非GAAP盈利能力的年运行率估计。如果2022年盈利增长率为25%（我对截至2021年第三季度调整后毛利润增长率的估计），而我对当前调整后税后盈利年增长率的估计为0.12美元，那么该股的交易价格可能会跌至6美元。这意味着下行风险为-55%。</blockquote></p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><blockquote>下面的日线图详细介绍了技术背景。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><blockquote>技术面显示19美元至22美元之间存在较大阻力。鉴于过去三个月的持续下跌趋势，近期可能会出现反弹。也就是说，上行的技术潜力与下行的基本面潜力相结合，使该股在短期内具有65%至-55%的平衡潜在回报范围。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p><p><blockquote>总而言之，Palantir应该被列入高风险成长型投资者的观察名单。长期的机会在于成为能够集成结构化和非结构化数据以实现实时智能的基础企业操作系统。然而，由于出现了明显的危险信号，因此需要谨慎。主要的危险信号包括销售放缓、不寻常的上市转变、盈利能力迅速下降以及估值上升（误差幅度有限）。由此产生的风险和回报之间的对称性导致中性评级。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":996,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633844071,"gmtCreate":1643965234750,"gmtModify":1643965234860,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meta","listText":"Meta","text":"Meta","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633844071","repostId":"1180306841","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633972114,"gmtCreate":1643721274143,"gmtModify":1643721314882,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633972114","repostId":"1196808170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":880,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639720150,"gmtCreate":1643465654826,"gmtModify":1643465654972,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639720150","repostId":"1157223555","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157223555","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643443466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157223555?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639133016,"gmtCreate":1643191926915,"gmtModify":1643191976590,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639133016","repostId":"2206839931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206839931","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643159234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206839931?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206839931","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street se","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&amp;P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>&#34;At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,&#34; noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,&#34; Michael O&#39;Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. &#34;Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don&#39;t forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face &#34;six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,&#34; said O&#39;Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday&#39;s late rally a &#34;head fake,&#34; saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don&#39;t see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That&#39;s unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn&#39;t see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&amp;P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that&#39;s money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China&#39;s currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币走弱之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500,&#34; says Bannister and the team. So the next &#34;shoe to drop&#34; is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&amp;P 500 quarterly EPS &#34;beats&#34; minus &#34;misses,&#34; which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&amp;P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&amp;P 500 price,&#34; says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food &amp; energy costs,&#34; as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,&#34; they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the &#34;nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,&#34; adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&amp;P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to &#34;the third bubble in 100 years.&#34; </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist<blockquote>资深策略师表示，这五个信号将告诉你华尔街调整何时结束</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-26 09:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&amp;P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>市场波动似乎将持续下去，股票期货在经历了可追溯到2008年的疯狂华尔街交易后下跌，标普500和纳斯达克摆脱了深度跌幅，收盘走高。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>&#34;At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,&#34; noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p><blockquote>德意志银行策略师吉姆·里德和他的团队指出：“周一，我们一度感觉自己陷入了全面危机，更不用说衰退了。”据摩根大通报道，一些个人投资者在周一认输了，这是一个巨大的新闻周。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,&#34; Michael O&#39;Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. &#34;Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.&#34;</p><p><blockquote>JonesTrading首席市场策略师Michael O'Rourke对客户表示：“未来三天有可能决定美国股市的成败。”“周二，微软在收盘后公布财报。周三是FOMC（联邦公开市场委员会）做出决定，或者更准确地说是无决定日，周四，苹果公布财报。”</blockquote></p><p>And don&#39;t forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p><blockquote>别忘了西方和俄罗斯在乌克兰问题上酝酿的地缘政治麻烦。</blockquote></p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face &#34;six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,&#34; said O&#39;Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p><blockquote>奥罗克表示，由于很少有人预计美联储本周会采取任何行动，投资者可能会面临“六周的投资者困境，等待政策紧缩周期的开始”。尽管如此，到周四晚些时候，他们至少可能会对美联储和盈利有更多的了解。</blockquote></p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday&#39;s late rally a &#34;head fake,&#34; saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don&#39;t see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p><blockquote>我们今天的看涨期权来自Stifel的Barry Bannister领导的策略师团队。策略师称周一尾盘的反弹是“假的”，称投资者需要发生五件事才能让股市触底（他们认为这种情况在2022年第一季度末之前不会发生）并恢复牛市，但没有一件事现在看起来可行。</blockquote></p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That&#39;s unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><blockquote>一。美联储更加鸽派，这可能会降低10年期国债通胀保值证券的实际收益率，该收益率一直在给成长型股票的市盈率带来压力。斯蒂菲尔表示，在市场首次加息之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn&#39;t see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&amp;P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><blockquote>两个。美国制造业采购经理人指数必须触底，Stifel认为这种情况在4月份之前不会发生。他们指出，通常情况下，年度PMI指数变化与同比标普500价格、每股收益和工业生产相关或领先。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that&#39;s money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China&#39;s currency weakens.</p><p><blockquote>三个。全球M2货币供应量（即公众持有的货币）必须触底，而且在人民币走弱之前，这种情况不太可能发生。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500,&#34; says Bannister and the team. So the next &#34;shoe to drop&#34; is a weaker yuan.</p><p><blockquote>“以美元计算，中国占全球货币供应量的37%，人民币走软将导致美元升值，而以美元计算的全球货币供应量增长下降，从而收紧美国金融状况并降低标普500的市盈率，”班尼斯特和他的团队说道。因此，下一个“要掉的鞋”是人民币走软。</blockquote></p><p>Four. S&amp;P 500 quarterly EPS &#34;beats&#34; minus &#34;misses,&#34; which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p><blockquote>四个。标普500季度每股收益“好于”减去“未达”，自2021年下半年以来一直疲软，并给股市带来压力，需要冷静下来。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&amp;P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&amp;P 500 price,&#34; says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“当每股收益超出预期面临压力时，在这种情况下低于长期趋势（蓝线），标普500的投资者必须学会接受政策支持的减少，同时也要受到年度/年度减少的影响标普500价格的变化，”班尼斯特和他的团队说。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p><blockquote>五个。东方的地缘政治混乱必须在不伤害美国消费者的情况下得到解决。</blockquote></p><p>&#34;Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food &amp; energy costs,&#34; as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p><blockquote>“乌克兰事件将很重要：西方因可能发生的乌克兰事件对俄罗斯等全球主要能源生产国进行报复，可能会导致美国扣除家庭食品和能源成本后税后收入大幅下降，”如下图所示，班尼斯特和他的团队说道。</blockquote></p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,&#34; they add.</p><p><blockquote>当这种情况发生时，参议院和美国众议院通常会输给执政党，”他们补充道。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the &#34;nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,&#34; adds Bannister.</p><p><blockquote>班尼斯特补充道，俄罗斯只对乌克兰东部有计划，并且拥有“非美元储备、对欧盟能源流动的权力、俄罗斯的民众支持以及实现建立苏联式缓冲区将其与西方隔开的目标的火力”。</blockquote></p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&amp;P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to &#34;the third bubble in 100 years.&#34; </p><p><blockquote>请注意，虽然Stifel承认它搞砸了2021年夏季的回调看涨期权，但它在12月份预测标普500将在第一季度触及4,200点，建议投资者采取防御性措施并摆脱周期性股票。它还警告称，美联储对加息失去勇气可能会导致“100年来的第三次泡沫”。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4516":"特朗普概念","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4206":"工业集团企业","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4515":"5G概念","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4538":"云计算","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","MMM":"3M","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","AXP":"美国运通","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4134":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","BK4007":"制药","BK4525":"远程办公概念","XRX":"施乐","BK4097":"系统软件","JNJ":"强生","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","MSFT":"微软","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4501":"段永平概念","VZ":"Verizon Comms","BK4527":"明星科技股",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓","BK4115":"综合电信业务","IBM":"IBM","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206839931","content_text":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.\"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,\" noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.\"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,\" Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. \"Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.\"And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face \"six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,\" said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a \"head fake,\" saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.\"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500,\" says Bannister and the team. So the next \"shoe to drop\" is a weaker yuan.Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS \"beats\" minus \"misses,\" which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.\"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price,\" says Bannister and the team.Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.\"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs,\" as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,\" they add.Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the \"nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,\" adds Bannister.Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to \"the third bubble in 100 years.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MSFT":0.74,".IXIC":0.9,"XRX":1,"VZ":1,"LMT":1,"SPY":0.6,"JNJ":1,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MMM":1,"SPOT":1,"AXP":1,"IBM":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":719,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630749732,"gmtCreate":1643066215028,"gmtModify":1643066215119,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630749732","repostId":"1135838595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630425851,"gmtCreate":1643026865792,"gmtModify":1643026865919,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630425851","repostId":"2205802723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630306729,"gmtCreate":1642686633475,"gmtModify":1642686642539,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630306729","repostId":"2204058661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697065156,"gmtCreate":1642167767437,"gmtModify":1642167794785,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697065156","repostId":"1144666508","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144666508","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642160056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144666508?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-14 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144666508","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, so","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2021年的模因股票热潮无疑是一个历史上独特的市场环境。许多股票，有些被严重做空，有些只是有趣的投机性增长股票，大幅上涨——通常在很短的时间内翻倍、三倍或更多。许多人让投资者经历了数月的过山车之旅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, most meme stocks aren&#39;t worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it&#39;s tough to make a long-term investment case for <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>.</b> On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there&#39;s been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，大多数模因股票不值得作为长期投资购买。例如，很难为<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>.</b>另一方面，有一些股票陷入了看起来像是可靠的长期投资的模因股票交易。尤其是在许多高增长股票出现大幅调整的情况下。</blockquote></p><p><b>A massive opportunity and a great strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的机遇和伟大的战略</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Offerpad</b>(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad&#39;s core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.</p><p><blockquote><b>优惠垫</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：OPAD）是一家房地产公司，是所谓的房屋iBuyer或即时买家。Offerpad的核心业务包括直接从卖家那里购买房屋，进行表面维修，然后直接出售给买家，希望在此过程中赚取利润。</blockquote></p><p>However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won&#39;t be consistently profitable for some time, it isn&#39;t that far from it right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有几件事使Offerpad有别于其同行集团（实际上只由另外两家公司组成）。为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>事实上，Offerpad是唯一一家更注重效率而不是全面增长的iBuyer。它的单位经济效益一直好于同行，虽然在一段时间内不会持续盈利，但现在离盈利也不远了。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Offerpad isn&#39;t necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Offerpad并不一定试图完全取代公开市场房屋销售。其Offerpad Flex产品鼓励客户在公开市场上列出他们的房屋（通过Offerpad合作伙伴代理），并为他们提供现金报价，以便在他们厌倦传统销售流程时放在口袋里。</blockquote></p><p>Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年底完成与特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的合并后，Offerpad变得有点疯狂，一度从SPAC之前的10美元估值飙升至近21美元。现在SPAC热潮已经降温，Offerpad已暴跌至6美元以下，与许多其他最近的SPAC目标一致。但毫无疑问，这是一个真正的行业，有着巨大的市场机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tons of disruptive potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的颠覆性潜力</b></blockquote></p><p>One of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>SoFi</b></a>, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was &#34;IPOE&#34; for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.</p><p><blockquote>2021年一些最受欢迎的交易者聊天室中讨论最多的股票之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>索菲</b></a>，去年通过Chamath Palihapitiya支持的SPAC上市（对于那些关注Palihapitiya的人来说，这是“IPOE”）。它最初是一家私人学生贷款公司，但后来发展成为一个金融生态系统，拥有全套贷款产品、信用卡、银行账户、经纪账户等。该公司还拥有伽利略金融服务API和支付平台，为合作伙伴运营的8900万个金融账户提供功能。</blockquote></p><p>To say SoFi&#39;s growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech&#39;suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it&#39;s on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>说SoFi的增长惊人是一种保守的说法。Thefintech的用户群在过去一年中几乎翻了一番，超过290万会员，这些用户约占430万种不同的金融产品。非贷款业务的增长尤其令人印象深刻，截至2021年第三季度，产品同比增长179%。</blockquote></p><p>SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi有能力成为传统银行模式的真正颠覆者，并且正在采取所有正确的举措以可持续的方式扩大其业务规模。过去两个月股价下跌了36%，现在可能是打折增持的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><b>The most exciting growth is yet to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最激动人心的增长还在后头</b></blockquote></p><p>Last but certainly not least, insurance disruptor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>Lemonade</b></a> has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的是，保险颠覆者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>柠檬汽水</b></a>成为近期成长型股票逆风的一大受害者，过去几个月股价下跌约35%，较历史高点累计下跌80%。</blockquote></p><p>Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company&#39;s core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade是一家保险技术公司，旨在提供更好的方式来获取保险报价、购买保单和提交索赔。在该公司的租房者和房主保险核心业务中，客户反馈非常强烈。</blockquote></p><p>However, it&#39;s the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company&#39;s much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of <b>Metromile</b>(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司备受期待的汽车保险产品Lemonade Car的推出，以及即将收购的<b>地铁里程</b>（纳斯达克：英里）-柠檬水可以加速产品的上市并迅速扩大业务规模。如果该公司能够复制其早期在汽车领域的保险成功，并能够控制损失率，那么Lemonade可能会成为耐心投资者的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Remember what you&#39;re buying</p><p><blockquote>记住你买的是什么</blockquote></p><p></p><p>To be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that while the &#34;meme stock&#34; craze has died down, that doesn&#39;t mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it&#39;s important to be prepared for that possibility.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这三只股票都是真正的企业，具有巨大的长期增长机会。然而，重要的是要记住，虽然“模因股票”热潮已经消退，但这并不意味着它已经永久消失。如果它卷土重来，这三只股票都可能经历一场过山车般的行情。在您将这些添加到您的投资组合之前，为这种可能性做好准备非常重要。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks<blockquote>3只实际上是可靠的长期选择的模因股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-14 19:34</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>2021年的模因股票热潮无疑是一个历史上独特的市场环境。许多股票，有些被严重做空，有些只是有趣的投机性增长股票，大幅上涨——通常在很短的时间内翻倍、三倍或更多。许多人让投资者经历了数月的过山车之旅。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>To be sure, most meme stocks aren&#39;t worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it&#39;s tough to make a long-term investment case for <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>.</b> On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there&#39;s been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，大多数模因股票不值得作为长期投资购买。例如，很难为<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a>.</b>另一方面，有一些股票陷入了看起来像是可靠的长期投资的模因股票交易。尤其是在许多高增长股票出现大幅调整的情况下。</blockquote></p><p><b>A massive opportunity and a great strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的机遇和伟大的战略</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Offerpad</b>(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad&#39;s core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.</p><p><blockquote><b>优惠垫</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：OPAD）是一家房地产公司，是所谓的房屋iBuyer或即时买家。Offerpad的核心业务包括直接从卖家那里购买房屋，进行表面维修，然后直接出售给买家，希望在此过程中赚取利润。</blockquote></p><p>However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won&#39;t be consistently profitable for some time, it isn&#39;t that far from it right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，有几件事使Offerpad有别于其同行集团（实际上只由另外两家公司组成）。为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>事实上，Offerpad是唯一一家更注重效率而不是全面增长的iBuyer。它的单位经济效益一直好于同行，虽然在一段时间内不会持续盈利，但现在离盈利也不远了。</blockquote></p><p>Second, Offerpad isn&#39;t necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.</p><p><blockquote>其次，Offerpad并不一定试图完全取代公开市场房屋销售。其Offerpad Flex产品鼓励客户在公开市场上列出他们的房屋（通过Offerpad合作伙伴代理），并为他们提供现金报价，以便在他们厌倦传统销售流程时放在口袋里。</blockquote></p><p>Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>在2021年底完成与特殊目的收购公司(SPAC)的合并后，Offerpad变得有点疯狂，一度从SPAC之前的10美元估值飙升至近21美元。现在SPAC热潮已经降温，Offerpad已暴跌至6美元以下，与许多其他最近的SPAC目标一致。但毫无疑问，这是一个真正的行业，有着巨大的市场机会。</blockquote></p><p><b>Tons of disruptive potential</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巨大的颠覆性潜力</b></blockquote></p><p>One of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>SoFi</b></a>, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was &#34;IPOE&#34; for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.</p><p><blockquote>2021年一些最受欢迎的交易者聊天室中讨论最多的股票之一，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>索菲</b></a>，去年通过Chamath Palihapitiya支持的SPAC上市（对于那些关注Palihapitiya的人来说，这是“IPOE”）。它最初是一家私人学生贷款公司，但后来发展成为一个金融生态系统，拥有全套贷款产品、信用卡、银行账户、经纪账户等。该公司还拥有伽利略金融服务API和支付平台，为合作伙伴运营的8900万个金融账户提供功能。</blockquote></p><p>To say SoFi&#39;s growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech&#39;suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it&#39;s on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>说SoFi的增长惊人是一种保守的说法。Thefintech的用户群在过去一年中几乎翻了一番，超过290万会员，这些用户约占430万种不同的金融产品。非贷款业务的增长尤其令人印象深刻，截至2021年第三季度，产品同比增长179%。</blockquote></p><p>SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.</p><p><blockquote>SoFi有能力成为传统银行模式的真正颠覆者，并且正在采取所有正确的举措以可持续的方式扩大其业务规模。过去两个月股价下跌了36%，现在可能是打折增持的好时机。</blockquote></p><p><b>The most exciting growth is yet to come</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最激动人心的增长还在后头</b></blockquote></p><p>Last but certainly not least, insurance disruptor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>Lemonade</b></a> has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>最后但并非最不重要的是，保险颠覆者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>柠檬汽水</b></a>成为近期成长型股票逆风的一大受害者，过去几个月股价下跌约35%，较历史高点累计下跌80%。</blockquote></p><p>Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company&#39;s core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>Lemonade是一家保险技术公司，旨在提供更好的方式来获取保险报价、购买保单和提交索赔。在该公司的租房者和房主保险核心业务中，客户反馈非常强烈。</blockquote></p><p>However, it&#39;s the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company&#39;s much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of <b>Metromile</b>(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.</p><p><blockquote>然而，该公司备受期待的汽车保险产品Lemonade Car的推出，以及即将收购的<b>地铁里程</b>（纳斯达克：英里）-柠檬水可以加速产品的上市并迅速扩大业务规模。如果该公司能够复制其早期在汽车领域的保险成功，并能够控制损失率，那么Lemonade可能会成为耐心投资者的大赢家。</blockquote></p><p>Remember what you&#39;re buying</p><p><blockquote>记住你买的是什么</blockquote></p><p></p><p>To be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that while the &#34;meme stock&#34; craze has died down, that doesn&#39;t mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it&#39;s important to be prepared for that possibility.</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，这三只股票都是真正的企业，具有巨大的长期增长机会。然而，重要的是要记住，虽然“模因股票”热潮已经消退，但这并不意味着它已经永久消失。如果它卷土重来，这三只股票都可能经历一场过山车般的行情。在您将这些添加到您的投资组合之前，为这种可能性做好准备非常重要。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","SOFI":"SoFi Technologies Inc.","LMND":"Lemonade, Inc.","OPAD":"Offerpad Solutions"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144666508","content_text":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.To be sure, most meme stocks aren't worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it's tough to make a long-term investment case for AMC Entertainment. On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there's been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.A massive opportunity and a great strategyOfferpad(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad's core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For one thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won't be consistently profitable for some time, it isn't that far from it right now.Second, Offerpad isn't necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.Tons of disruptive potentialOne of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, SoFi, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was \"IPOE\" for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.To say SoFi's growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech'suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it's on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.The most exciting growth is yet to comeLast but certainly not least, insurance disruptor Lemonade has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company's core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.However, it's the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company's much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of Metromile(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.Remember what you're buyingTo be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it's important to keep in mind that while the \"meme stock\" craze has died down, that doesn't mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it's important to be prepared for that 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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year<blockquote>高盛预测美联储今年将加息五次</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-29 16:04</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>高盛集团（Goldman Sachs Group Inc.）的经济学家与华尔街同行一起预测，美联储将比他们之前预期的更激进地加息。</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p><blockquote>以Jan Hatzius为首的经济学家现在预测，美联储今年将五次将其近零基准上调25个基点，而不是四次。到今年年底，该基准利率将升至1.25%-1.5%。</blockquote></p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p><blockquote>高盛现在在3月、5月、7月、9月和12月看到了转变。他们还预计官员们将在6月份宣布开始缩减资产负债表。</blockquote></p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p><blockquote>几天前，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，官员们已准备好在3月份加息，并在每次会议上为遏制40年来最快的通胀敞开了大门。周五的一份政府报告显示，截至12月的一年中，就业成本指数上涨了4%，为二十年来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p><blockquote>美联储启动数十年来最激进的全球紧缩政策</blockquote></p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p><blockquote>高盛经济学家在给客户的一份报告中表示：“工资增长高于美联储通胀目标水平的证据已经加强，我们已经上调了通胀路径。”“此外，鲍威尔主席本周早些时候的言论明确表示，美联储领导层对更激进的紧缩步伐持开放态度。”</blockquote></p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p><blockquote>他们表示，如果市场状况发生变化或经济减速比预期快得多，美联储仍可能改变策略，或者如果通胀仍然足够高，美联储收紧货币政策的幅度甚至超过预期。</blockquote></p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p><blockquote>尽管他们一致认为美联储将采取比之前押注更多的行动，但银行本周在政策制定者的激进程度上存在分歧。</blockquote></p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行目前预测2022年加息七次，法国巴黎银行预测加息六次，摩根大通和德意志银行预计加息五次。</blockquote></p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p><blockquote>野村控股公司甚至预计央行将在3月份加息50个基点，这将是自2000年以来的最大举措。</blockquote></p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p><p><blockquote>彭博经济研究所坚持本月早些时候做出的五次加息的预测，尽管首席经济学家Anna Wong本周表示有六次加息的风险。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":605,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695756684,"gmtCreate":1641619637645,"gmtModify":1641620538547,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695756684","repostId":"2201219990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":508,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696422097,"gmtCreate":1640751429205,"gmtModify":1640751429329,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696422097","repostId":"2194074487","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":505,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630306729,"gmtCreate":1642686633475,"gmtModify":1642686642539,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630306729","repostId":"2204058661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":827,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695871465,"gmtCreate":1641432528395,"gmtModify":1641432528481,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695871465","repostId":"1145850594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692892510,"gmtCreate":1640909817542,"gmtModify":1640909817639,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692892510","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)的Lazada、印尼的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading<blockquote>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨逾4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>Sea Limited股价早盘上涨超过4%。</body></html></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><blockquote><b>另请阅读：</b><b>Sea Limited：深入了解最近的抛售</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Sea Limited是一家高度多元化的企业，在世界上一些增长最快的经济体中全力以赴。</li><li>我深入研究了它的每个细分市场，以了解最近的抛售并证明当前估值的合理性。</li><li>我认为Sea是我最有信心的十项投资之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>kokkai/iStock未通过Getty Images发布</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>论文</b></blockquote></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><blockquote>对Sea Limited（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SE）部门的细分分析表明，其目前的估值大致公平，但有许多长期增长动力可能会出人意料地上涨，并在未来几年推动非常强劲的回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p><blockquote>我最近写了一篇文章，重点介绍了我选择的2022年十大股票。我已经在其他Seeking Alpha文章中对我的其他九个选择进行了深入分析，所以我认为最好以一篇关于Sea的文章来结束这一年。</blockquote></p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p><blockquote>此外，由于过去几个月股价大幅下跌（但今年仍略有上涨），我相信这篇文章可能是及时的。我不推测短期市场走势，但我个人最近增持了Sea股票。这是我唯一没有为了收获税收损失而暂时卖出的亏损头寸之一，在本文中，我将解释为什么Sea对我来说是如此坚定的持有。</blockquote></p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p><blockquote>还值得注意的是，许多专业投资者似乎也认同这一观点。Sea是全球第121大公司，但在对冲基金中排名第16位。这暗示大资金是跑赢大盘海，71%的股份被机构持有。</blockquote></p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><blockquote>由于Sea在许多不同的领域开展业务，我将对其每个运营部门进行单独分析，以证明其当前估值的合理性，并解释该估值如何在多年来推动意想不到的强劲回报。</blockquote></p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p><blockquote><b>游戏</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Limited的游戏部门Garena因其内部开发的移动大逃杀游戏《Free Fire》而闻名。</blockquote></p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p><blockquote>该游戏于2017年发布，此后一直非常受欢迎。它目前在全球所有安卓游戏中拥有第二大月活跃用户。这款游戏在全球范围内都有售，但在东南亚、拉美和印度等新兴市场尤其受欢迎，两年多来，它一直是这些市场票房最高的手机游戏。</blockquote></p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p><blockquote>随着这款游戏已经流行了很长时间，有人担心游戏玩家会转向下一件大事。虽然有一些手机游戏比Free Fire更古老，但仍然非常受欢迎——如Roblox、Clash of Clans和Pokemon Go——但还有更多已经被遗忘。在Garena发布更多游戏并证明它也可以在这些游戏上取得成功之前，总会有人质疑它的工作室是否是一个昙花一现的奇迹。</blockquote></p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，Garena是Sea的重要组成部分，因为它是唯一盈利的细分市场，并且它是为Sea非游戏产品提供免费广告的社交平台的两倍。交叉推广是Sea的巨大竞争优势。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Sea最近抛售的原因之一可能是Garena暗示的第四季度指引。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：看涨期权收益演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p><blockquote>今年第二季度，Garena将2021年预订量的指导上调至45亿美元至47亿美元（高于43亿美元至45亿美元）。由于前三个季度的总预订量已经达到$3.5 B，这意味着第四季度的预订量将达到$1.0 B-$1.2 B，同比增长0%至20%，并且可能会环比下降。相比之下，最近一个季度的增长率为29%，全年预计增长率为44%。</blockquote></p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p><blockquote>虽然20%并不是一个可怕的减速，但0%肯定是。与历史水平相比，即使是20%的增长也并不引人注目。在10%的中点，Garena的增长看起来更类似于动视暴雪（纳斯达克股票代码：ATVI）或Zynga（纳斯达克股票代码：ZNGA）等成熟公司，而不是Roblox（纽约证券交易所股票代码：RBLX）等快速增长的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p><blockquote>Garena的隐含估值应该——也确实——因此受到影响。虽然像Roblox这样快速增长的公司可以获得两位数的高市盈率，但动视暴雪和Zynga的平均市盈率仅为4倍。Garena的利润比他们略高，而且可能有更大的上行风险，因此我将使用市盈率倍数5作为我的隐含估值。这意味着一家增长率在10%左右的企业的市盈率约为10，这在当今市场上是非常合理的。</blockquote></p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p><blockquote>这意味着根据管理层指导的高端，Garena的价值为235亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><p><blockquote>我相信这个估值实际上是保守的，原因有几个：</blockquote></p><p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>明年的竞争很艰难，增长可能会在接下来的几年甚至明年重新加速，特别是如果Garena发布一款新的热门游戏。下个季度的增长率不是基于公司的明确指导，而是基于行业预测。</li><li>我使用的同行估值来自去年交易价格也处于估值范围下限的公司。</li><li>Garena拥有良好的业绩记录，并将继续投资Free Fire。这方面的一个例子是最近发布的Free Fire MAX，它改善了高端手机用户的体验，甚至添加了一个类似元宇宙的可定制地图，称为Craftland。对我来说，这意味着Garena认为Free Fire仍处于其生命周期的早期阶段。</li><li>虽然我显然更希望Garena在内部开发更多的游戏，但与此同时，它仍然不是一匹只会一招的小马。除了Free Fire之外，Garena还发行腾讯控股(OTCMKTS：OTCPK：TCEHY)等第三方开发商的游戏。这些都是像《英雄联盟》和《使命看涨期权》这样受欢迎的游戏，它们有意义地使Garena的收入多样化。</li></ul><b>电子商务</b></blockquote></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>Sea的电子商务平台Shopee目前是其最大的增长动力。该平台通常被认为是东南亚的亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN），最近它扩展到包括巴西在内的更多市场。</blockquote></p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p><blockquote>关于谁是一个地区真正的亚马逊，总是有一些争论。Shopee当然面临竞争，包括来自阿里巴巴-SW(NYSE：BABA)的Lazada、印尼的Tokopedia、巴西的MercadoLibre(MELI)，甚至Amazon本身。由于大多数竞争都是私人的或隐藏在更大的公司中，许多竞争对手不会公布确切的收入数字，这使得衡量竞争变得困难。就连Sea也没有公布巴西等一些国家的明确收入数据。</blockquote></p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p><blockquote>一个可以评估的中立来源是Alexa网站排名，顾名思义，它根据网站的受欢迎程度对网站进行排名。请记住，这些都是排名，所以分数越低越好。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自Alexa</span></p></blockquote></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p><blockquote>Shopee非常专注于移动，但上表只考虑了网站。要查看购物类别的App Store应用排名，我们可以使用App Annie。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者，编译自AppAnnie</span></p></blockquote></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p><blockquote>在移动端，没有必要关注竞争，因为Shopee一直是每个国家排名第一的购物应用。在移动优先的世界里，这是个好兆头。即使在网络方面，Shopee也胜出，除了拉丁美洲和（勉强）印度尼西亚等少数特定地区，这些地区有更多的本地竞争对手。</blockquote></p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p><blockquote>当然，流量并不总是转化为GMV。但对于一个大多数人都会使用该应用程序购买东西的购物应用程序来说，这是一个不错的代理。第三方估计Shopee占东南亚所有电子商务的57%。正是Shopee在移动应用排名和市场份额方面的主导地位让我认为它是东南亚的亚马逊。</blockquote></p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p><blockquote>那么，为什么一家潜力如此之大的公司会抛售呢？</blockquote></p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p><blockquote>在最近的财报发布后，一些分析师对Shopee在当前市场验证其商业模式之前将业务扩展到波兰和墨西哥等其他国家表示担忧。在这些国家，Shopee的影响力较小；它在墨西哥应用商店购物应用的3-5位之间波动，在波兰的1-3位之间波动。尽管分析师讨厌不确定性——而且首席执行官关于他们在这些早期国家没有具体的成功衡量标准的评论对此没有帮助——但Shopee有着成功进入新国家的历史，我愿意给管理层一些时间尝试进一步扩张。毕竟，如果他们成功了，那么它可能会在未来推动更多意想不到的增长。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p><blockquote>分析师的另一个抱怨是篮子规模（平均购买规模）呈下降趋势。虽然这也可能导致了最近的抛售，但尽管篮子规模有所下降，但当整体销售额大幅增长时，很难抱怨。</blockquote></p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p><blockquote>该公司在第三季度再次上调了电子商务指引，目前预计2021年电子商务收入为$5.0 B-$5.2 B。第四季度增长75%-100%，全年增长约135%。这些数字比游戏方面更令人兴奋，尽管指导仍然意味着第四季度略有减速。但与亚马逊2020年3400亿美元的电子商务销售额相比，Shopee看起来只是触及了表面。电子商务在东南亚的渗透率仅为11%，而美国为18.7%，东南亚经济体的增长速度普遍高于美国。</blockquote></p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p><blockquote>尽管处于蓝天行业，但对电子商务部门进行估值更加困难，因为它处于亏损状态（而游戏部门利润丰厚）。Shopee的成功并不能保证，因为目前尚不清楚该平台能否在保持市场份额的同时实现盈利。像这样的股票往往会经历更大的波动，这可以部分解释最近的抛售。</blockquote></p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p><blockquote>对于不盈利的软件公司，我喜欢用40法则来评估业务。但很难将这一规则应用于利润率自然较低、周期性较强的电子商务公司。即便如此，值得注意的是，尽管没有盈利，Sea的40分（104分）优于大多数SaaS公司，也优于电子商务同行Amazon（21分）、MercadoLibre（73分）和阿里巴巴-SW（43分）。</blockquote></p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p><blockquote>要了解Shopee盈利后的终端估值，我们可以看看行业同行。亚马逊是一家盈利且增长较慢的同行，其市盈率为4倍。AWS推高了这一数字，但亚马逊对第一方销售的高敞口抵消了这一影响。其他电子商务市场同行的估值类似：阿里巴巴-SW的市盈率为3倍，MercadoLibre的市盈率为9倍。所有这些估值基本上都是历史低点。</blockquote></p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p><blockquote>如果Shopee在未来几年内收入持续翻倍（自2016年以来每年都很容易做到），实现盈利（扩大规模往往会有所帮助），并在两年内达到亚马逊的市盈率倍数，那么今天的市盈率为16倍，它将在两年内持平。但如果它在十年等较长时间内保持比亚马逊快得多的增长速度，和/或如果整个行业市盈率扩大到更正常的历史水平，那么即使市盈率为16倍，该细分市场也有潜在的上涨空间。另一方面，如果它停止增长或永远无法盈利，那么投资者将对任何市盈率感到非常失望。</blockquote></p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于这种广泛的结果，每个人都会有自己的方式来评估这一部分。对我来说，当我看到Shopee的移动主导地位、目前相对较小的规模、来自Garena的资金以及Amazon、阿里巴巴-SW和MercadoLibre为这种商业模式的可持续长期成功树立的先例时，我对这个细分市场的未来持乐观态度。我认识到这是一个目前无利可图且存在风险的细分市场，但我也看到了巨大的潜力。</blockquote></p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p><blockquote>因此，我很高兴支付16倍的市盈率，这使得电子商务部门的估值为$832亿。有些人的看涨期权太高，这些人可能永远没有机会投资这家公司，无论好坏。</blockquote></p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><blockquote>因此，仅算上Garena和Shopee，我认为Sea的价值为$1067亿。其目前的市值为$123.1 B。为了解释这种差异，让我们看看海洋的其他部分。</blockquote></p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融科技与投资</b></blockquote></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p><blockquote>我计算的估值中最容易增加的是Sea的120B美元现金储备，部分被40亿美元的债务抵消。这为该公司增加了一些不错的选择，并确保尽管Shopee亏损，但它不会很快破产。加上$8B现金差额，我的计算估值为$114.7 B，仅比实际估值低$8.4 B。</blockquote></p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p><blockquote>然后是Sea的金融科技部门SeaMoney。这里的主要产品是移动钱包，上个季度的支付量为46亿美元（一年约为200亿美元）。该部门第三季度收入为1.32亿美元，同比增长818%。这意味着2.9%的“采用率”，甚至比Visa(V)等老牌金融科技公司还要好。由于采用率很高，我并不担心SeaMoney在扩大规模时会亏损。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p><blockquote>尽管SeaMoney只是一个很小的细分市场，但它现在已经达到了可以纳入估值的程度。也许它只值几十亿，但这只是一个开始。五年前，没有人会想到，一个占Sea销售额5%的电子商务平台今天的价值会超过游戏领域。但Sea的管理层——加上Garena为新细分市场提供资金并推动其病毒式采用的能力——实现了这一目标。当然，不能保证Sea在金融科技方面会取得同样的成功，但这是有先例的。</blockquote></p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p><blockquote>如果有一天这个细分市场的价值达到Sea的三分之一或更多（2020年，金融科技占MercadoLibre收入的36%），那么今天仅以7%的业务获得它将是非常值得的，即使这意味着今天该细分市场的市盈率为16倍。事实上，这个倍数已经低于Visa、Mastercard（纽约证券交易所股票代码：MA）和Affirm（纳斯达克股票代码：AFRM）。实际上，同比增长818%的细分市场可能应该比这些增长较慢的公司获得更高的市盈率，但我们甚至不需要猜测什么是公平市盈率，因为我们可以通过在我的模型估值中使用16倍市盈率来达到Sea当前的估值。</blockquote></p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p><blockquote>这一细分市场进一步增长的一个方法是推出除移动钱包之外的更多产品。Sea在最近的财报中指出，他们已经开始“在其他数字金融服务方面采取早期举措，例如先买后付、数字银行和保险科技”。这些人肯定知道如何抓住最新的高增长趋势。</blockquote></p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><blockquote>最后是投资部门。Sea正在投资早期科技公司，尤其是在东南亚。腾讯控股（其本身就是Sea的投资者）和Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP）等公司管理成功的投资组合，最终对其估值产生有意义的影响，这是有先例的。目前Sea的投资部门还处于早期阶段，因此我没有将其纳入我的估值模型中。但不一定要考虑到这一点来证明当前股价的合理性。这只是又一个有一天可能抵得上一大部分海洋的区域。</blockquote></p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p><blockquote>纵观Sea的每个细分市场，我的估值模型表明Sea目前的估值相当合理。然而，我的模型没有考虑到新细分市场的重要可选性。就像电子商务在过去五年中所做的那样，金融科技（和/或投资）可能会发展成为Sea业务的一个非常重要的部分。金融科技领域目前同比增长818%，不需要太多想象力就能看出这是如何发生的。只要再以接近这一速度增长一两年，投资者就无法忽视金融科技部门。</blockquote></p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p><blockquote>这种选择性结合了每项业务的总体实力，使Sea在过去一年的平均收入增长了7%。盈利并没有那么强劲，我预计这将成为我的估值模型的主要争论点，就像大多数未盈利公司的情况一样。特别是，我预计一些读者会不同意我对电子商务领域的估值。但即使你将电子商务的市盈率一路降至5倍（这是当今增长缓慢得多的电子商务公司的市盈率），这也意味着比今天的价格下跌54%。这肯定是一个急剧的下跌，但如果使用最保守的估值标准，当今市场上的大多数公司都会看到这样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p><p><blockquote>只有像Sea这样快速增长的公司才能用收入增长迅速抵消这种下降。因此，最具长期潜力的企业很难以最保守的估值进行交易。Sea当然具有长期潜力。这是我拥有的少数几家高增长公司之一，我认为这些公司在这十年内市值将达到万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696549311,"gmtCreate":1640740105369,"gmtModify":1640740105451,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696549311","repostId":"1157924593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157924593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640738343,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157924593?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 08:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157924593","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally","content":"<p>Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.</p><p><blockquote>圣诞节可能已经结束，但对于投资者来说，礼物可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> The \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling&nbsp;a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>“圣诞老人集会”看起来会让2021年成为股市的高潮。标普500(^GSPC)周二连续第二天创下历史新高，随后因午盘科技股小幅抛售而小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“嗬，嗬嗬”，股票在上涨？</b></blockquote></p><p> The last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&amp;P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.</p><p><blockquote>一年的最后五个交易日和下一年的前两个交易日加在一起，往往是市场一年中最大的一周。自1945年以来，标普500 1.2%的平均增长率是任何七天期间最大的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c54ea712b8fce648fa682efa965a15a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2015年12月24日，圣诞节前一天，纽约，一名交易员戴着圣诞帽在纽约证券交易所工作。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些日子在历史上表现如此出色？正如20世纪经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯可能会说的那样，动物精神与圣诞老人集会有很大关系。</blockquote></p><p> “It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”</p><p><blockquote>CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall在谈到上涨原因时表示：“这是情绪的结果。”“因为（投资者知道）如果市场在一月份表现良好，那么全年通常都会表现良好。但如果我们发现大量资金立即流入市场，那么有迹象表明今年可能是非常好的一年。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔解释说，投资者预计这一时期即将到来，股价即将上涨，因此他们更有可能投资以获得更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.</p><p><blockquote>尽管圣诞老人集会背后的情绪似乎是在回避问题，但其结果并没有什么神秘之处。</blockquote></p><p> According to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&amp;P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).</p><p><blockquote>根据Stovall最近发布的一份研究报告，在价格上涨的圣诞老人反弹期之后的几年里，标普500增长率为10.3%，高于9.2%的平均增长率（自1945年以来）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>January Barometers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一月晴雨表</b></blockquote></p><p> Two other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔写道，对于渴望预测2022年市场前景的投资者来说，还有另外两个晴雨表，这两个晴雨表都涉及1月份的市场表现。一月的前五天是该月剩余时间表现的一个很好的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e3e7627b845414da42f555bc4db069\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年12月28日，美国纽约市曼哈顿的纽约证券交易所(NYSE)交易大厅，屏幕显示股票更新。路透社/安德鲁·凯利</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔在CFRA报告中写道：“前五天为市场整个月的表现提供了早期预警信号。”“而且它的准确性令人印象深刻，每三年就有两次上涨和下跌信号是正确的。更重要的是，1月份前五天股市的积极表现提高了年度价格上涨的可能性12.8%，FoA提高至82%。”</blockquote></p><p> And as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如华尔街的一句老话所说，“一月如此，一年也如此。”第三个指标被斯托瓦尔称为“一月晴雨表”，它将1月份的市场表现与随后11个月的表现联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Should the S&amp;P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.</p><p><blockquote>“如果标普500在整个1月份继续录得积极表现，那么从历史上看，全年表现积极的可能性就会增强，因为年均价格涨幅升至15.9%，FoA（提前频率）增加到87%，”报告指出。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，投资者应该从晴雨表中得出的最大结论是，有足够重要的数据可以假设12月下旬/1月的市场表现与全年表现之间存在因果关系。</blockquote></p><p> “Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&amp;P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.</p><p><blockquote>“并非今年的所有价格上涨都集中在今年的第一个月，因为1月份标普500上涨后，今年剩余11个月平均上涨11.3%，市场公布了11个月的FoA 83%的时间，”他在报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Though January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>尽管1月份的涨幅似乎通过设定投资者的态度和预期为今年剩余时间设定了标准，但斯托瓦尔强调，这些指标并不是保证。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”</p><p><blockquote>“投资者应该始终将历史视为伟大的指南，但绝不是福音，”他说。过去的表现“很强烈地暗示了可能发生的事情，但肯定不能保证。”</blockquote></p><p> In 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，市场可能会遇到持续的新冠疫情以及高通胀和美联储控制通胀的努力的挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c6b1ff968cfd5507f8c17566398310\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国纽约——12月28日：2021年12月28日，美国纽约皇后区，一名男子正在皇后区医院中心旁边的新冠肺炎检测中心接受新冠肺炎检测，数百名居民排队接受新冠肺炎检测，全国奥密克戎加剧。（摄影：Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency，盖蒂图片社）更多</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔说：“当你想到一些可能扰乱这些不同晴雨表记录的不利因素时，如果它们都被触发的话。”他补充说，下一个新冠病毒变种应该是最令人担忧的。</blockquote></p><p> The Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout&nbsp;all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are&nbsp;less severe&nbsp;than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries&nbsp;while some remain relatively&nbsp;unaffected.</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎变种是在美国所有50个州传播的最新冠状病毒株。尽管最近的研究表明，奥密克戎病例没有以前的病毒株严重，但它具有高度传染性，已经对一些行业的消费者需求产生了影响，而另一些行业则相对未受影响。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.</p><p><blockquote>其次，美联储明确表示有意加息以应对高通胀。许多经济学家预计这些加息将在明年某个时候开始。</blockquote></p><p> “That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示：“这令人担忧，因为如果美联储过于激进地加息，可能会让市场陷入混乱。”“此外，从历史上看，我们在利率上升的环境下看到PE倍数收缩。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst<blockquote>分析师：这3个指标可能预测2022年股市的表现</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">finance.yahoo</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 08:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.</p><p><blockquote>圣诞节可能已经结束，但对于投资者来说，礼物可能才刚刚开始。</blockquote></p><p> The \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling&nbsp;a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>“圣诞老人集会”看起来会让2021年成为股市的高潮。标普500(^GSPC)周二连续第二天创下历史新高，随后因午盘科技股小幅抛售而小幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>“嗬，嗬嗬”，股票在上涨？</b></blockquote></p><p> The last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&amp;P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.</p><p><blockquote>一年的最后五个交易日和下一年的前两个交易日加在一起，往往是市场一年中最大的一周。自1945年以来，标普500 1.2%的平均增长率是任何七天期间最大的。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c54ea712b8fce648fa682efa965a15a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2015年12月24日，圣诞节前一天，纽约，一名交易员戴着圣诞帽在纽约证券交易所工作。路透社/卢卡斯·杰克逊</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Why do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.</p><p><blockquote>为什么这些日子在历史上表现如此出色？正如20世纪经济学家约翰·梅纳德·凯恩斯可能会说的那样，动物精神与圣诞老人集会有很大关系。</blockquote></p><p> “It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”</p><p><blockquote>CFRA Research首席投资策略师Sam Stovall在谈到上涨原因时表示：“这是情绪的结果。”“因为（投资者知道）如果市场在一月份表现良好，那么全年通常都会表现良好。但如果我们发现大量资金立即流入市场，那么有迹象表明今年可能是非常好的一年。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔解释说，投资者预计这一时期即将到来，股价即将上涨，因此他们更有可能投资以获得更高的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Though the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.</p><p><blockquote>尽管圣诞老人集会背后的情绪似乎是在回避问题，但其结果并没有什么神秘之处。</blockquote></p><p> According to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&amp;P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).</p><p><blockquote>根据Stovall最近发布的一份研究报告，在价格上涨的圣诞老人反弹期之后的几年里，标普500增长率为10.3%，高于9.2%的平均增长率（自1945年以来）。</blockquote></p><p> <b>January Barometers</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一月晴雨表</b></blockquote></p><p> Two other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔写道，对于渴望预测2022年市场前景的投资者来说，还有另外两个晴雨表，这两个晴雨表都涉及1月份的市场表现。一月的前五天是该月剩余时间表现的一个很好的指标。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e3e7627b845414da42f555bc4db069\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年12月28日，美国纽约市曼哈顿的纽约证券交易所(NYSE)交易大厅，屏幕显示股票更新。路透社/安德鲁·凯利</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔在CFRA报告中写道：“前五天为市场整个月的表现提供了早期预警信号。”“而且它的准确性令人印象深刻，每三年就有两次上涨和下跌信号是正确的。更重要的是，1月份前五天股市的积极表现提高了年度价格上涨的可能性12.8%，FoA提高至82%。”</blockquote></p><p> And as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.</p><p><blockquote>正如华尔街的一句老话所说，“一月如此，一年也如此。”第三个指标被斯托瓦尔称为“一月晴雨表”，它将1月份的市场表现与随后11个月的表现联系起来。</blockquote></p><p> “Should the S&amp;P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.</p><p><blockquote>“如果标普500在整个1月份继续录得积极表现，那么从历史上看，全年表现积极的可能性就会增强，因为年均价格涨幅升至15.9%，FoA（提前频率）增加到87%，”报告指出。</blockquote></p><p> The biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示，投资者应该从晴雨表中得出的最大结论是，有足够重要的数据可以假设12月下旬/1月的市场表现与全年表现之间存在因果关系。</blockquote></p><p> “Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&amp;P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.</p><p><blockquote>“并非今年的所有价格上涨都集中在今年的第一个月，因为1月份标普500上涨后，今年剩余11个月平均上涨11.3%，市场公布了11个月的FoA 83%的时间，”他在报告中写道。</blockquote></p><p> Though January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.</p><p><blockquote>尽管1月份的涨幅似乎通过设定投资者的态度和预期为今年剩余时间设定了标准，但斯托瓦尔强调，这些指标并不是保证。</blockquote></p><p> “Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”</p><p><blockquote>“投资者应该始终将历史视为伟大的指南，但绝不是福音，”他说。过去的表现“很强烈地暗示了可能发生的事情，但肯定不能保证。”</blockquote></p><p> In 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.</p><p><blockquote>2022年，市场可能会遇到持续的新冠疫情以及高通胀和美联储控制通胀的努力的挑战。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c6b1ff968cfd5507f8c17566398310\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>美国纽约——12月28日：2021年12月28日，美国纽约皇后区，一名男子正在皇后区医院中心旁边的新冠肺炎检测中心接受新冠肺炎检测，数百名居民排队接受新冠肺炎检测，全国奥密克戎加剧。（摄影：Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency，盖蒂图片社）更多</span></p></blockquote></p><p> “When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔说：“当你想到一些可能扰乱这些不同晴雨表记录的不利因素时，如果它们都被触发的话。”他补充说，下一个新冠病毒变种应该是最令人担忧的。</blockquote></p><p> The Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout&nbsp;all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are&nbsp;less severe&nbsp;than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries&nbsp;while some remain relatively&nbsp;unaffected.</p><p><blockquote>奥密克戎变种是在美国所有50个州传播的最新冠状病毒株。尽管最近的研究表明，奥密克戎病例没有以前的病毒株严重，但它具有高度传染性，已经对一些行业的消费者需求产生了影响，而另一些行业则相对未受影响。</blockquote></p><p> Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.</p><p><blockquote>其次，美联储明确表示有意加息以应对高通胀。许多经济学家预计这些加息将在明年某个时候开始。</blockquote></p><p> “That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”</p><p><blockquote>斯托瓦尔表示：“这令人担忧，因为如果美联储过于激进地加息，可能会让市场陷入混乱。”“此外，从历史上看，我们在利率上升的环境下看到PE倍数收缩。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html\">finance.yahoo</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157924593","content_text":"Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.\n‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?\nThe last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.\nA trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson\nWhy do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.\n“It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”\nInvestors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.\nThough the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.\nAccording to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).\nJanuary Barometers\nTwo other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.\nA screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly\n“The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”\nAnd as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.\n“Should the S&P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.\nThe biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.\n“Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.\nThough January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.\n“Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”\nIn 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.\nNEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More\n“When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.\nThe Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are less severe than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries while some remain relatively unaffected.\nSecondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.\n“That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":564,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696830706,"gmtCreate":1640659037918,"gmtModify":1640659038741,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696830706","repostId":"1142783552","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142783552","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640647322,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142783552?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows<blockquote>现在是1999年12月，纽约证券交易所股价触及新低</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142783552","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在股市欢庆激动人心的年终之际，道格·拉姆齐对市场表面下的情况有一个发人深省的观察。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, when the S&amp;P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>上周，当标普500收于52周高点时，纽约证券交易所交易的334家公司触及52周低点，是一年新高的两倍多。Leuthold Group首席投资官拉姆齐表示，这种情况在历史上只发生过三次，全部发生在1999年12月。</blockquote></p><p> And it’s not just a one-week phenomenon: NYSE new lows now also outnumber new highs on a six-week moving-average basis. The last time that happened as the S&amp;P 500 hit a one-year high was in July 2015, right before a six-month correction that saw the index lose around 14%.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅仅是一周的现象：按六周移动平均线计算，纽约证券交易所的新低数量现在也超过了新高。上一次标普500触及一年高点是在2015年7月，就在六个月调整之前，该指数下跌了约14%。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed had months to taper when the economy was red hot and the stock market tape was very broad and healthy,” Ramsey said. “Now, they are finally poised to do so with the economy cooling off a bit and stock market internals looking weaker than an at time during the entire rally from the pandemic lows.”</p><p><blockquote>拉姆齐表示：“当经济炙手可热、股市行情非常广泛且健康时，美联储有几个月的时间来缩减规模。”“现在，随着经济有所降温，股市内部看起来比从大流行低点反弹期间的某个时候还要疲软，他们终于准备好这样做了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus, whipping up volatility as investors fretted over the central bank’s policy path as well as the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant. But strong corporate earnings and some positive Covid-19 news have helped propel stocks higher, with the S&amp;P 500 on Monday notching its 69th all-time high of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本月早些时候宣布将加快退出经济刺激措施，由于投资者对央行的政策路径以及迅速传播的新型冠状病毒变种感到担忧，这加剧了波动性。但强劲的企业盈利和一些积极的Covid-19消息帮助推动股市走高，标普500周一创下今年第69个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Few things stir agita for traders like comparisons to 1999 crash times. But Ramsey says that his analysis doesn’t mean a correction is imminent. The smoothed-out six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”</p><p><blockquote>很少有什么比与1999年崩盘时期的比较更能让交易者兴奋的了。但拉姆齐表示，他的分析并不意味着调整即将到来。平滑六周移动平均线的情况在1999年发生了几次，直到2000年3月24日，当时它“被证明是棺材上的最后一颗钉子”。</blockquote></p><p> “The trouble is these warnings can persist for several months before the blue chips finally take a hit,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“问题是，在蓝筹股最终受到打击之前，这些警告可能会持续几个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows<blockquote>现在是1999年12月，纽约证券交易所股价触及新低</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows<blockquote>现在是1999年12月，纽约证券交易所股价触及新低</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Bloomberg</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-28 07:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.</p><p><blockquote>（彭博社）——在股市欢庆激动人心的年终之际，道格·拉姆齐对市场表面下的情况有一个发人深省的观察。</blockquote></p><p> Last week, when the S&amp;P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>上周，当标普500收于52周高点时，纽约证券交易所交易的334家公司触及52周低点，是一年新高的两倍多。Leuthold Group首席投资官拉姆齐表示，这种情况在历史上只发生过三次，全部发生在1999年12月。</blockquote></p><p> And it’s not just a one-week phenomenon: NYSE new lows now also outnumber new highs on a six-week moving-average basis. The last time that happened as the S&amp;P 500 hit a one-year high was in July 2015, right before a six-month correction that saw the index lose around 14%.</p><p><blockquote>这不仅仅是一周的现象：按六周移动平均线计算，纽约证券交易所的新低数量现在也超过了新高。上一次标普500触及一年高点是在2015年7月，就在六个月调整之前，该指数下跌了约14%。</blockquote></p><p> “The Fed had months to taper when the economy was red hot and the stock market tape was very broad and healthy,” Ramsey said. “Now, they are finally poised to do so with the economy cooling off a bit and stock market internals looking weaker than an at time during the entire rally from the pandemic lows.”</p><p><blockquote>拉姆齐表示：“当经济炙手可热、股市行情非常广泛且健康时，美联储有几个月的时间来缩减规模。”“现在，随着经济有所降温，股市内部看起来比从大流行低点反弹期间的某个时候还要疲软，他们终于准备好这样做了。”</blockquote></p><p> The Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus, whipping up volatility as investors fretted over the central bank’s policy path as well as the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant. But strong corporate earnings and some positive Covid-19 news have helped propel stocks higher, with the S&amp;P 500 on Monday notching its 69th all-time high of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美联储本月早些时候宣布将加快退出经济刺激措施，由于投资者对央行的政策路径以及迅速传播的新型冠状病毒变种感到担忧，这加剧了波动性。但强劲的企业盈利和一些积极的Covid-19消息帮助推动股市走高，标普500周一创下今年第69个历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> Few things stir agita for traders like comparisons to 1999 crash times. But Ramsey says that his analysis doesn’t mean a correction is imminent. The smoothed-out six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”</p><p><blockquote>很少有什么比与1999年崩盘时期的比较更能让交易者兴奋的了。但拉姆齐表示，他的分析并不意味着调整即将到来。平滑六周移动平均线的情况在1999年发生了几次，直到2000年3月24日，当时它“被证明是棺材上的最后一颗钉子”。</blockquote></p><p> “The trouble is these warnings can persist for several months before the blue chips finally take a hit,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>“问题是，在蓝筹股最终受到打击之前，这些警告可能会持续几个月，”他说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html\">Bloomberg</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142783552","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.\nLast week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.\nAnd it’s not just a one-week phenomenon: NYSE new lows now also outnumber new highs on a six-week moving-average basis. The last time that happened as the S&P 500 hit a one-year high was in July 2015, right before a six-month correction that saw the index lose around 14%.\n“The Fed had months to taper when the economy was red hot and the stock market tape was very broad and healthy,” Ramsey said. “Now, they are finally poised to do so with the economy cooling off a bit and stock market internals looking weaker than an at time during the entire rally from the pandemic lows.”\nThe Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus, whipping up volatility as investors fretted over the central bank’s policy path as well as the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant. But strong corporate earnings and some positive Covid-19 news have helped propel stocks higher, with the S&P 500 on Monday notching its 69th all-time high of the year.\nFew things stir agita for traders like comparisons to 1999 crash times. But Ramsey says that his analysis doesn’t mean a correction is imminent. The smoothed-out six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”\n“The trouble is these warnings can persist for several months before the blue chips finally take a hit,” he said.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693795723,"gmtCreate":1640075457039,"gmtModify":1640075457039,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693795723","repostId":"1107624786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107624786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640073090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107624786?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why<blockquote>CrowdStrike：逢低买入，原因如下</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107624786","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.</li>  <li>Incredibly ability to retain customers and drive growth within its existing customer base are strong signs of a positive future for CrowdStrike.</li>  <li>A founder-led company taking its point of departure in what the legacy providers weren't capable of.</li>  <li>Trading 30% down from previous high something it hasn't done since the Covid-19 market crash.</li>  <li>Q3-22 was yet another impressive quarter with strong top-line growth and positive free cash flow.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22956bf83da56565ef9e9e736d7927a5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CrowdStrike是一只昂贵的股票，这是有原因的，最近的回调为建仓这只行业赢家提供了一个合适的时机。</li><li>令人难以置信的是，CrowdStrike留住客户并推动现有客户群增长的能力是CrowdStrike积极未来的强烈迹象。</li><li>一家创始人领导的公司，其出发点是传统提供商无法做到的。</li><li>交易价格较之前的高点下跌了30%，这是自Covid-19市场崩盘以来从未发生过的情况。</li><li>22年第三季度是又一个令人印象深刻的季度，营收增长强劲，自由现金流为正。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Eoneren/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) is currently trading 30% off its 52-week high at a P/S ratio of 35.9, the cheapest it has been since the end of 2020. Does that indicate it's a bargain, no it doesn't, but quality comes at a price and given a closer look at how management has executed and with the outlook in mind, I believe that CrowdStrike is an appealing opportunity at the current levels. That doesn't take away the fact, that I'd be careful whenever I'm about to invest in a company trading at such extreme valuations as given the P/S example, but sometimes, an exception can be made from my standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.(CRWD)目前的市盈率为35.9，较52周高点低30%，为2020年底以来的最低水平。这是否表明它很便宜，不，不是，但质量是有代价的，仔细看看管理层的执行情况并考虑到前景，我相信CrowdStrike在当前水平上是一个有吸引力的机会。这并不能消除这样一个事实，即每当我要投资一家估值如此极端的公司时，我都会小心谨慎，如市盈率示例，但有时，从我的角度来看，可以例外。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike offers a range of simple but efficient cybersecurity solutions anchored in the cloud in order to prevent breaches on the customer end. The solutions offered by the company rests on an AI that gets increasingly more intelligent as it identifies and deals with threats. In the words of the company itself, the AI gets smarter as it consumes more data. A few years ago, they managed a trillion 'signals' a week, which has now grown to a trillion a day, meaning the rate of data available is growing significantly.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike提供了一系列简单而高效的基于云的网络安全解决方案，以防止客户端的违规行为。该公司提供的解决方案依赖于人工智能，随着人工智能识别和处理威胁，人工智能变得越来越智能。用该公司自己的话说，人工智能随着消耗更多数据而变得更智能。几年前，他们每周管理一万亿个“信号”，现在已经增长到每天一万亿个，这意味着可用数据的速度正在显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> As will become evident later on in this article, the company has proven extremely capable of customer retention proving the value of its services and also a strong up-selling ability as given by its dollar-based retention rates.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文后面将变得明显的那样，该公司已经证明了其极有能力留住客户，证明了其服务的价值，以及其基于美元的保留率所赋予的强大的向上销售能力。</blockquote></p><p> The company is co-founded by former Chief Technology Officer at McAfee and current CEO of CrowdStrike, George Kurtz, who recognized the lacking abilities of on-premises legacy players and the gap that allowed for a pure play cybersecurity cloud-based solution. He co-founded the company together with Dmitri Alperovitch who became Chief Technology Officer in CrowdStrike coming from a position of heading up threat research at McAfee. He has since then left his position, with the current CTOMichael Sentonas, also having been a leading executive at McAfee and holding more than 20 years' experience within cybersecurity.</p><p><blockquote>该公司由McAfee前首席技术官、CrowdStrike现任首席执行官George Kurtz共同创立，他认识到内部传统玩家缺乏能力，以及允许纯粹的网络安全云解决方案的差距。他与Dmitri Alperovitch共同创立了该公司，后者曾在McAfee负责威胁研究，后来成为CrowdStrike的首席技术官。此后，他离职，现任首席技术官Michael Sentonas也曾担任McAfee的首席执行官，在网络安全领域拥有20多年的经验。</blockquote></p><p> If we ask ourselves why cybersecurity matters in the 21st century, just take one look at the world's largest container shipping company, A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBY), who according to the Wired magazine, suffered the most devastating cyberattack in history back in 2017, ultimately coming in at an estimatedlossof $300 million. We could add election interference and government sponsored cyber threats on top, suggesting that this is a highly prioritized area for both public and private institutions, giving strong signs of industry growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们问自己为什么网络安全在21世纪很重要，只要看看世界上最大的集装箱运输公司A.P.据《连线》杂志报道，默勒-马士基公司(OTCPK：AMKBY)在2017年遭受了历史上最具破坏性的网络攻击，最终估计损失达3亿美元。我们可以在上面添加选举干预和政府支持的网络威胁，这表明这是公共和私人机构高度优先的领域，给出了行业增长的强烈迹象。</blockquote></p><p> As far as I can see, there is a lot to like about this company and by the end of this decade I don't think it mattered whether one paid $175 or $225 per share, but whether one owned shares to begin with. I've wanted to initiate a position for a long time but waited for a pullback as other companies were trading more favorably. However, the current pullback allowed for initiating a position on December 13th at $209 per share. A position I intend to expand by dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，这家公司有很多值得喜欢的地方，到本十年末，我认为一个人支付每股175美元还是225美元并不重要，重要的是一个人是否一开始就拥有股票。我想建仓很长时间了，但由于其他公司的交易更有利，我等待了回调。然而，当前的回调允许在12月13日以每股209美元的价格建仓。我打算通过平均成本法来扩大这个职位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CrowdStrike's Business Model And Industry Position</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CrowdStrike的商业模式和行业地位</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike has consistently been recognized by Gartner as an EPP (End Point Protection) leader with the most recent publication in 2021. The visual overlook given in the research document isn't immediately free of charge, but the same ranking for 2019 is shown below, to provide a taste of how this industry can be categorized.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike一直被Gartner公认为EPP（端点保护）领导者，最新发布于2021年。研究文件中给出的视觉俯瞰并不是立即免费的，但下面显示了2019年的相同排名，以提供该行业如何分类的味道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573a46128009538f9c3c494900deb212\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons it's marked as a leader comes down to completeness and effectiveness of its vision, to provide a customer solution that isn't characterized by high costs, complexity and ineffectiveness. The very issues that the company itself identifies with legacy players.</p><p><blockquote>它被标记为领导者的原因之一归结为其愿景的完整性和有效性，即提供一个不以高成本、复杂性和低效为特征的客户解决方案。该公司本身认为传统玩家存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec4d8f5d820dbe401d7ffd02df7f559\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike believes their product is apart from the rest by the nature of its cloud solution allowing for data access, giving constant protection, continuous learning and re-use of those learnings within its AI.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike认为，他们的产品因其云解决方案的性质而与众不同，该解决方案允许数据访问，提供持续保护、持续学习和在人工智能中重用这些学习。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>When a customer suffers a breach, that customer is made aware, and the data immediately digested within CrowdStrike's AI brain, known as Falcon and in this instance labelled \"The Threat Graph\". The breach is analyzed, and all other customers known to the cloud receives an update to detect and avoid a similar threat.</li> </ul> Herein also lies an important observation to the thesis underlying CrowdStrike over time. As the AI becomes smarter it strengthens its resilience towards cyber related threats but also makes it increasingly difficult for new entrants to match the services provided by CrowdStrike. On top is the network effect, suggesting the value proposition strengthens over time, as every new customer gives more value to the software and ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当客户遭受违规时，该客户会意识到，数据会立即在CrowdStrike的人工智能大脑中消化，该大脑被称为Falcon，在本例中被标记为“威胁图”。对违规行为进行分析，云已知的所有其他客户都会收到更新，以检测和避免类似的威胁。</li></ul>随着时间的推移，这也是对CrowdStrike背后的论点的一个重要观察。随着人工智能变得更加智能，它增强了对网络相关威胁的抵御能力，但也使新进入者越来越难以与CrowdStrike提供的服务相匹配。最重要的是网络效应，表明价值主张随着时间的推移而加强，因为每个新客户都会为软件和生态系统带来更多价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909a2c51271cf6f1f889ee2333b6626a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is building the business around a SaaS (subscription as a service) model, something which many legacy players would like to adopt, and which gives management strong forward visibility. Here follows a few stats for CrowdStrike to set the stage and understand its current size and operation.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike正在围绕SaaS（订阅即服务）模式构建业务，这是许多传统参与者希望采用的模式，并且为管理层提供了强大的前瞻性视野。以下是CrowdStrike的一些统计数据，为了解其当前的规模和运营奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c8775ec1bd442c072ef95d3a5777a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As evident, growth is strong across the panel, supported by the vision of a business model promising much less friction for the customer. The company itself has labelled this a low friction go-to market strategy with ease of use when it comes to onboarding. And as you will see in a minute, once you become a customer of CrowdStrike, the chance you leave is slim.</p><p><blockquote>显然，在承诺为客户减少摩擦的商业模式愿景的支持下，整个面板的增长都很强劲。该公司本身将其称为低摩擦的上市策略，在入职时易于使用。正如你马上就会看到的，一旦你成为CrowdStrike的客户，你离开的机会就很小了。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>14.687 subscription customers as of Q3-22 (+74% Y/Y)</li>  <li>Annual Recurring Revenue $1.51 billion (+67% Y/Y)</li>  <li>63 of the Fortune 100 as current customers</li>  <li>14 of the top 20 banks</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d5f146b3e308cc0abf384378bd392\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 28.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至22年第3季度，订阅客户为14.687（同比增长74%）</li><li>年度经常性收入15.1亿美元（同比增长67%）</li><li>财富100强中的63家为现有客户</li><li>排名前20的银行中有14家</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。28.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the growth of ARR over the years, it's evident the company is doing something that customers value. Speaking of the customers, here is one of the strongest selling points for why CrowdStrike could be a winner for this decade and within its industry.</p><p><blockquote>从ARR多年来的增长来看，很明显该公司正在做一些客户重视的事情。说到客户，这是CrowdStrike能够成为这十年及其行业内赢家的最强卖点之一。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Dollar-Based Retention Rate</b>: showing how much revenue the company makes from its existing customer base over time. For the past 13 quarters, the company has exceeded a dollar-based retention rate of 120% suggesting that customers are pleased with the service they are procuring, to the point where they spend more money with CrowdStrike over time. A strong sign of customer satisfaction.</li>  <li><b>Gross retention</b>: Showing the number of customers the company manages to keep on its books as time passes, with the best possible outcome being 100%, which of course is an unrealistic achievement given some customers come and go, other go out of business etc. Gross retention is at 98% and has been in that ballpark for 14 quarters in a row - extremely impressive.</li> </ul> In other words, customer stay, and they allocate more spending with CrowdStrike over time, two incredibly strong selling points for why this company should have a bright future, and also why we as potential shareholders consistently have to pay a premium if we want in.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>以美元为基础的保留率</b>：显示随着时间的推移，公司从现有客户群中获得了多少收入。在过去的13个季度中，该公司以美元计算的保留率超过了120%，这表明客户对他们购买的服务感到满意，随着时间的推移，他们会在CrowdStrike上花更多的钱。顾客满意的强烈标志。</li><li><b>总保留率</b>：显示公司久而久之设法保留在账簿上的客户数量，最好的结果是100%，考虑到一些客户来来去去，另一些客户倒闭等，这当然是一个不切实际的成就。保留率为98%，连续14个季度保持在这个水平——非常令人印象深刻。</li></ul>换句话说，客户会留下来，随着时间的推移，他们会通过CrowdStrike分配更多支出，这是为什么这家公司应该拥有光明未来的两个令人难以置信的强大卖点，也是为什么我们作为潜在股东如果想加入，就必须始终支付溢价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c454fe97b9f6fee141600816ffa29f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 30.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。30.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A closer look at the customer base, and unsurprisingly, it has been growing massively in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察客户群，不出所料，近年来它一直在大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88973b4df7dcd2644e4c4652e4f79942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 18.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。18.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With a TTM revenue of $1.28 billion, the company still has a significant runway when considering their estimated total addressable market. We of course need to maintain a sense of skepticism, given these numbers are company estimates, but it does illustrate the opportunities ahead. Given the examples I provided in the beginning of both public and private institutions being affected by cyber threats, then it is fair to say this marketplace will continue to expand throughout this decade. CrowdStrike estimates an 11% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 while currently growing much faster, which should remind us that CrowdStrike's growth will slow down at one point.</p><p><blockquote>TTM收入为12.8亿美元，考虑到估计的总目标市场，该公司仍有很大的发展空间。鉴于这些数字是公司的估计，我们当然需要保持怀疑态度，但它确实说明了未来的机会。鉴于我在开始时提供的公共和私人机构都受到网络威胁影响的例子，那么可以公平地说，这个市场将在这十年中继续扩大。CrowdStrike预计2022年至2024年复合年增长率为11%，而目前增长速度要快得多，这应该提醒我们CrowdStrike的增长将在某个时候放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Observing the TAM slide below, for those who we have followed the company for some time, you will have seen the number of services widen, as the company has expanded its platform and focus areas. Something that naturally add additional potential revenue to the pie for each new successful initiative.</p><p><blockquote>观察下面的TAM幻灯片，对于那些关注该公司一段时间的人来说，您会看到随着该公司扩大其平台和重点领域，服务数量有所增加。这自然会为每一个新的成功计划增加额外的潜在收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946272438a584bf1aea8ddfd4594024c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 22.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。22.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some uncertainty to how this marketplace could develop, but CrowdStrike has already addressed my skepticism, suggesting that companies in general still aren't allocating sufficient funds within their IT budgets to deal with the potential cyber threats out there. As with most other things, we probably need to see someone \"fall\" on the playground before the rest begin wearing protective gear. As such, we can decide to view the TAM estimates as both conservative or optimistic. Whenever I consider TAM estimates, I often prefer the conservative understanding of how a market could develop as to not be carried away by how the future could look like. In my own opinion, humans often adopt changes slower than what comes across in headlines. Just take the example of society wide adoption of automated driving, something that has been touted for a long time, yet we remain far away due to legislation in combination with other roadblocks. The strongest indicator for a bright future for CrowdStrike lies within its performance on gross retention and dollar-based retention rates.</p><p><blockquote>这个市场如何发展存在一些不确定性，但CrowdStrike已经解决了我的怀疑，表明公司总体上仍然没有在其IT预算中分配足够的资金来应对潜在的网络威胁。和大多数其他事情一样，在其他人开始穿防护装备之前，我们可能需要看到有人“摔倒”在操场上。因此，我们可以决定将TAM估计视为保守或乐观。每当我考虑TAM的估计时，我通常更喜欢对市场如何发展的保守理解，以免被未来的样子冲昏头脑。在我看来，人类接受变化的速度往往比头条新闻中看到的要慢。以全社会采用自动驾驶为例，这已经被吹捧了很长时间，但由于立法和其他障碍，我们仍然遥遥无期。CrowdStrike光明未来的最有力指标在于其在总保留率和基于美元的保留率方面的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5fefcda5ca9e722ca3426a0a8f9502\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 24.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。24.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Show Me The Money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>给我看看钱</b></blockquote></p><p> As a high growth company, management must strike the balance of not over- or underspend on marketing and sales efforts to drive an expansion in revenue. The company reports on these efforts quarterly, and at the&nbsp;most recent quarter, CrowdStrike secured themselves $1.3 dollar in revenue for every dollar spend on sales and marketing efforts, while also securing a 77% performance when it comes to the \"rule of 40\", a typical metric used to gauge the health of a SaaS company. As given by its name, if you exceed 40 (combining growth and profit rates), then the business is in good health. As with any other metric, it shouldn't be allowed to speak on its own, but it does show that CrowdStrike is doing well. Basically, when seeing this metric, it allows one to understand if the company is striking the balance in terms of growing at a sustainable rate. In this case, CrowdStrike is growing immensely while having showed improved profitability in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家高增长公司，管理层必须在营销和销售工作上保持不过度或不足的平衡，以推动收入增长。该公司每季度报告一次这些工作，在最近一个季度，CrowdStrike在销售和营销工作上每花费1美元就能获得1.3美元的收入，同时在“40法则”（一种用于衡量SaaS公司健康状况的典型指标）方面也获得了77%的业绩。顾名思义，如果你超过40岁（综合增长率和利润率），那么企业健康状况良好。与任何其他指标一样，它不应该被允许自己说话，但它确实表明CrowdStrike做得很好。基本上，当看到这个指标时，它可以让人们了解公司是否在以可持续的速度增长方面取得了平衡。在这种情况下，CrowdStrike正在快速增长，同时近年来盈利能力有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d272cba74422da924ed37351999ae4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 34.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。34.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are clear signs of strong operating leverage if one observes the journey above with the gross margin being almost at where management would like in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果观察上面的旅程，就会有明显的迹象表明运营杠杆很强，毛利率几乎处于管理层长期希望的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>S&amp;M costs has dwindled from 101% of revenue in FY17 to 37% by this quarter</li>  <li>R&amp;D costs has dwindled from 73% of revenue in FY17 to 18% by this quarter</li>  <li>G&amp;A costs has dwindled from 30% of revenue in FY17 to 8% by this quarter</li> </ul> The target operating model (Non-GAAP) set by management shows the following drill down of its profit statement</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>S&amp;M成本已从2017财年占收入的101%下降至本季度的37%</li><li>研发成本占收入的比例已从2017财年的73%下降至本季度的18%</li><li>G&amp;A成本已从2017财年占收入的30%下降至本季度的8%</li></ul>管理层设定的目标运营模式（非公认会计准则）显示了其损益表的以下钻取</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Gross Margin (currently at 76%) to continue to rise toward 80%+</li>  <li>S&amp;M costs to fall towards 30-35%.</li>  <li>R&amp;D costs to settle between 15-20%.</li>  <li>G&amp;A costs to settle between 7-9%.</li>  <li>As a result, Operating margin should rise beyond 20%</li>  <li>Free cash flow margin of 30%+</li> </ul> I can't argue with the fact, that management has secured CrowdStrike is moving in the right direction to achieve its target operating model, meaning that I won't try to deny, that CrowdStrike could become a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>毛利率（目前为76%）将继续上升至80%以上</li><li>S&amp;M成本将下降30-35%。</li><li>R&amp;D成本稳定在15-20%之间。</li><li>G&amp;A成本稳定在7-9%之间。</li><li>因此，营业利润率应升至20%以上</li><li>自由现金流利润率30%+</li></ul>我无法否认这样一个事实，即管理层已经确保CrowdStrike正在朝着正确的方向前进，以实现其目标运营模式，这意味着我不会试图否认CrowdStrike可能成为一项非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In that regard, it's also interesting to observe how the free cash flow has trended, while CrowdStrike currently holds $1.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Cash that can be utilized to secure organic growth or bolt-on acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，观察自由现金流的趋势也很有趣，而CrowdStrike目前在其资产负债表上持有19亿美元的现金和现金等价物。可用于确保有机增长或补强收购的现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201ce099da8656661e8197f14d990c80\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If I were to summarize this section, I'd highlight management's ability to drive continuous improvements within its operating structure, to the point where its target operating model isn't too far away. All of this while securing its \"rule of 40\" number comes in at 77%, quite impressive. Holding more cash than debt on its balance, the company is well padded to meet its future, while still growing immensely.</p><p><blockquote>如果我要总结这一部分，我会强调管理层推动其运营结构持续改进的能力，使其目标运营模式不再遥远。所有这些在确保其“40法则”数字的同时达到77%，相当令人印象深刻。该公司的资产负债表上持有的现金多于债务，为未来做好了充分的准备，同时仍在大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Outlook &amp; Valuation</p><p><blockquote>展望与估值</blockquote></p><p> Nothing of what I've covered here is hidden to Wall Street, which also means that we must accept a premium price, more on that in a minute.</p><p><blockquote>我在这里提到的所有内容都没有对华尔街隐藏，这也意味着我们必须接受溢价，稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> According&nbsp;to 29 analysts following CrowdStrike, 19 of those are very bullish on the company, the highest amount and percentage in terms of distribution in the last three years. Their current average price target for the stock comes in at $293 per share, suggesting a 40% upside from the price today. Such targets don't make promises, but it gives an indication, that the stock could be at a relative bargain compared to how it has fared recently.</p><p><blockquote>据关注CrowdStrike的29名分析师称，其中19名分析师非常看好该公司，这是过去三年来分配金额和百分比最高的。他们目前对该股的平均目标价为每股293美元，较今天的价格上涨40%。此类目标并没有做出承诺，但它表明，与最近的表现相比，该股可能相对便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b71928d037a3feeb3a532d90a47910f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Those same analysts also provide forecasts related to both top- and bottom-line, with the revenue outlook expected to maintain its strong growth. By the end of FY24, the company would (if the price remained stable) still be trading at a P/S of 17.8, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) both trading at around 8 just for comparison. I don't find those growth expectations unrealistic given what I've uncovered already so far, but no one can know for certain how the situation will look like in two years. Should CrowdStrike also manage to achieve the consensus EPS expectations from the same analyst group, then the company would still trade at a P/E of 146 by FY24.</p><p><blockquote>这些分析师还提供了与营收和利润相关的预测，预计收入前景将保持强劲增长。到2024财年末，该公司（如果价格保持稳定）的市盈率仍将为17.8，苹果公司(AAPL)和Alphabet公司()的市盈率均在8左右，仅供比较。鉴于我迄今为止已经发现的情况，我并不认为这些增长预期不切实际，但没有人能确定两年后的情况会是什么样子。如果CrowdStrike也能够实现同一分析师小组的普遍每股收益预期，那么到2024财年，该公司的市盈率仍将为146。</blockquote></p><p> If I were to try and understand where the current valuation is coming from, then I'd highlight that the company has grown its revenue by 2.400% since FY17 until now (The company went public in June 2019). Growing from a small base is more accommodating, but so far, the company hasn't shown evidence that it is about to slow down.</p><p><blockquote>如果我试图了解当前估值的来源，那么我会强调，自2017财年至今，该公司的收入增长了2.400%（该公司于2019年6月上市）。从小基地发展更容易适应，但到目前为止，该公司还没有表现出即将放缓的证据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3564c72394432b565260261e1b7f951\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an EV to revenue of 35.7, roughly the same as when the company went public, only difference being it has grown massively since then. If we observe the same picture but measured in percentage growth, we see the massive returns for shareholders. In fact, it is trading slightly lower than during its IPO when measured on EV to revenue, but shareholders have been rewarded richly due to the very strong revenue growth. As such, the growing share price hasn't been driven by an expansion in its multiples, but by the strong operational execution conducted by the company. Again, make no mistake, an EV/Revenue multiple of 35.7 is&nbsp;<b>very high</b>&nbsp;but by far not the highest it has been trading at since its IPO and as evident from its historical performance, also a level that can create shareholder value. In other words, the performance of the stock, is following the fundamentals of the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的EV与收入的比率为35.7，与公司上市时大致相同，唯一的区别是自那以后它已经大幅增长。如果我们观察同样的情况，但以百分比增长来衡量，我们会看到股东的巨大回报。事实上，以电动汽车与收入之比衡量，该公司的交易价格略低于IPO期间，但由于收入增长非常强劲，股东获得了丰厚的回报。因此，股价的上涨并不是由市盈率的扩张推动的，而是由公司强大的运营执行力推动的。同样，毫无疑问，35.7的EV/收入倍数是<b>很高</b>但到目前为止，这还不是自首次公开募股以来的最高交易价格，从其历史表现可以看出，这也是一个可以创造股东价值的水平。换句话说，股票的表现，是跟随公司的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e491308b358f0808edce26c8f5a3af64\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Few Thoughts On Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于风险的几点思考</b></blockquote></p><p> Whenever a company trades at such multiples, there is very limited room for failure on especially top-line performance. A slight miss on revenue growth, or communication suggesting unclarity concerning coming quarters, or a guidance that is below analyst consensus estimates, any of those reasons can cause a significant downwards movement in the share price. Whenever that happens, it often requires a series of strong quarters and solid management communication for the street to regain confidence in the company.</p><p><blockquote>每当一家公司以这样的倍数交易时，失败的空间就非常有限，尤其是营收表现。收入增长略有下滑，或沟通表明未来几个季度的不确定性，或指引低于分析师的普遍预期，任何这些原因都可能导致股价大幅下跌。每当这种情况发生时，华尔街通常需要一系列强大的季度和坚实的管理沟通才能重拾对公司的信心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two companies who have fallen from similarly high levels during 2021 are DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). DocuSign due to weak revenue expectations and Pinterest due to uncertainty concerning the outlook for MAU (Monthly Active User) growth. Both of those companies were trading at above P/S ratios of 30 earlier this year, with CrowdStrike currently trading at DocuSign's peak from earlier this summer. Point being, the situation can change drastically in a very short time frame, and taking the example of Pinterest, management still hasn't managed to calm the investment community as evident by its continuous slip since uncertainty manifested itself. As such, both companies are down more than 30% YTD.</p><p><blockquote>2021年从类似高位下跌的两家公司是DocuSign Inc.(DOCU)和Pinterest公司(PINS)。DocuSign由于收入预期疲软，Pinterest由于MAU（月活跃用户）增长前景的不确定性。今年早些时候，这两家公司的市盈率均高于30，CrowdStrike目前的交易价格处于DocuSign今年夏天早些时候的峰值。关键是，情况可能会在很短的时间内发生巨大变化，以Pinterest为例，管理层仍然未能安抚投资界，自不确定性显现以来，其持续下滑就证明了这一点。因此，两家公司年初至今股价均下跌超过30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49c64ea83323eaf94baf50118c8243e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most common cause for concern, would be competition or that management has misunderstood how the market will develop, resulting in having to adjust expectations downwards. As shown in Gartner's quadrant earlier on in this article, the cybersecurity arena is a competitive one. Some of its characteristics is shifting technology and frequently changing products in an era where digitalization is undergoing rapid change.</p><p><blockquote>最常见的担忧原因是竞争或管理层误解了市场将如何发展，导致不得不下调预期。正如本文前面的Gartner象限所示，网络安全领域竞争激烈。在数字化快速变化的时代，它的一些特征是技术转移和产品频繁变化。</blockquote></p><p> With a market that is still fragmented, a changing competitive landscape could be the result of partnerships, acquisitions, or technological advancements. As mentioned, I see great value in the AI model of CrowdStrike combined with the network effects, but a significant technological advancement can't be predicted but could lay waste to CrowdStrike's future. As investors, it is paramount that we invest with open eyes, accepting that we face risks, especially in the situation of a high growth company still to reach its target operating model.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场仍然分散，竞争格局的变化可能是合作伙伴关系、收购或技术进步的结果。如前所述，我看到了CrowdStrike的人工智能模型与网络效应相结合的巨大价值，但重大的技术进步无法预测，但可能会毁掉CrowdStrike的未来。作为投资者，最重要的是我们要睁大眼睛进行投资，接受我们面临的风险，尤其是在一家高增长公司仍未达到其目标运营模式的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm a long-term investor, willing to hold onto my positions for years, waiting for them to unfold and tell their true story. In the case of CrowdStrike, we are dealing with a company with a hefty price tag no matter the valuation metric put to use, but also a company where the fundamentals have moved up and to the right at a blazing pace. Immense growth, strong development in its operating model and no signs of slowing down while having asserted its place in the cybersecurity industry combined with great network effects build into its service offering. CrowdStrike has what I look for in an industry winner, and I've initiated a position earlier in December, a position I plan on expanding as time goes by. I find that the recent pull-back offers some cushion in terms of downside pricing risks, but also want to underline that it still trades at very high multiples. Given my appetite for risk and the fact that similar high-flying growth companies have been put into the dust during 2021, I initiate a small position of 1-2% of my portfolio, with the willingness to grow it via dollar cost averaging. I do however believe, that when I look back at my investment in several years from now, that this company could be a market beater and that it mattered more that I held shares in the company than whether I initiated my position at $175 or $225 a share. Impressive gross retention of customers and a very impressive dollar-based retention rate tell me, that this company has managed to create a platform of services, which customers value highly and on top comes management continuous efforts towards expanding CrowdStrike's capabilities allowing for a growing total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>我是一名长期投资者，愿意持有我的头寸多年，等待它们展开并讲述它们的真实故事。就CrowdStrike而言，无论采用何种估值指标，我们都在与一家价格高昂的公司打交道，但也是一家基本面快速向上和向右移动的公司。其服务产品实现了巨大的增长、运营模式的强劲发展以及没有放缓的迹象，同时确立了其在网络安全行业的地位，并具有巨大的网络效应。CrowdStrike拥有我所寻找的行业赢家，我在12月初设立了一个职位，我计划随着时间的推移扩大这个职位。我发现最近的回调在下行定价风险方面提供了一些缓冲，但也想强调的是，它的市盈率仍然非常高。鉴于我对风险的偏好以及类似的高速增长公司在2021年已被淘汰的事实，我建立了投资组合1-2%的小头寸，并愿意通过美元成本平均法来增加它。然而，我确实相信，当我几年后回顾我的投资时，这家公司可能会跑赢市场，而且我持有该公司的股票比我以每股175美元还是225美元的价格开始建仓更重要。令人印象深刻的客户总保留率和非常令人印象深刻的基于美元的保留率告诉我，这家公司已经成功创建了一个客户高度重视的服务平台，最重要的是管理层不断努力扩大CrowdStrike的能力，从而实现了不断增长的总目标市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why<blockquote>CrowdStrike：逢低买入，原因如下</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why<blockquote>CrowdStrike：逢低买入，原因如下</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 15:51</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>CrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.</li>  <li>Incredibly ability to retain customers and drive growth within its existing customer base are strong signs of a positive future for CrowdStrike.</li>  <li>A founder-led company taking its point of departure in what the legacy providers weren't capable of.</li>  <li>Trading 30% down from previous high something it hasn't done since the Covid-19 market crash.</li>  <li>Q3-22 was yet another impressive quarter with strong top-line growth and positive free cash flow.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22956bf83da56565ef9e9e736d7927a5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>CrowdStrike是一只昂贵的股票，这是有原因的，最近的回调为建仓这只行业赢家提供了一个合适的时机。</li><li>令人难以置信的是，CrowdStrike留住客户并推动现有客户群增长的能力是CrowdStrike积极未来的强烈迹象。</li><li>一家创始人领导的公司，其出发点是传统提供商无法做到的。</li><li>交易价格较之前的高点下跌了30%，这是自Covid-19市场崩盘以来从未发生过的情况。</li><li>22年第三季度是又一个令人印象深刻的季度，营收增长强劲，自由现金流为正。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Eoneren/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) is currently trading 30% off its 52-week high at a P/S ratio of 35.9, the cheapest it has been since the end of 2020. Does that indicate it's a bargain, no it doesn't, but quality comes at a price and given a closer look at how management has executed and with the outlook in mind, I believe that CrowdStrike is an appealing opportunity at the current levels. That doesn't take away the fact, that I'd be careful whenever I'm about to invest in a company trading at such extreme valuations as given the P/S example, but sometimes, an exception can be made from my standpoint.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike Holdings Inc.(CRWD)目前的市盈率为35.9，较52周高点低30%，为2020年底以来的最低水平。这是否表明它很便宜，不，不是，但质量是有代价的，仔细看看管理层的执行情况并考虑到前景，我相信CrowdStrike在当前水平上是一个有吸引力的机会。这并不能消除这样一个事实，即每当我要投资一家估值如此极端的公司时，我都会小心谨慎，如市盈率示例，但有时，从我的角度来看，可以例外。</blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike offers a range of simple but efficient cybersecurity solutions anchored in the cloud in order to prevent breaches on the customer end. The solutions offered by the company rests on an AI that gets increasingly more intelligent as it identifies and deals with threats. In the words of the company itself, the AI gets smarter as it consumes more data. A few years ago, they managed a trillion 'signals' a week, which has now grown to a trillion a day, meaning the rate of data available is growing significantly.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike提供了一系列简单而高效的基于云的网络安全解决方案，以防止客户端的违规行为。该公司提供的解决方案依赖于人工智能，随着人工智能识别和处理威胁，人工智能变得越来越智能。用该公司自己的话说，人工智能随着消耗更多数据而变得更智能。几年前，他们每周管理一万亿个“信号”，现在已经增长到每天一万亿个，这意味着可用数据的速度正在显着增长。</blockquote></p><p> As will become evident later on in this article, the company has proven extremely capable of customer retention proving the value of its services and also a strong up-selling ability as given by its dollar-based retention rates.</p><p><blockquote>正如本文后面将变得明显的那样，该公司已经证明了其极有能力留住客户，证明了其服务的价值，以及其基于美元的保留率所赋予的强大的向上销售能力。</blockquote></p><p> The company is co-founded by former Chief Technology Officer at McAfee and current CEO of CrowdStrike, George Kurtz, who recognized the lacking abilities of on-premises legacy players and the gap that allowed for a pure play cybersecurity cloud-based solution. He co-founded the company together with Dmitri Alperovitch who became Chief Technology Officer in CrowdStrike coming from a position of heading up threat research at McAfee. He has since then left his position, with the current CTOMichael Sentonas, also having been a leading executive at McAfee and holding more than 20 years' experience within cybersecurity.</p><p><blockquote>该公司由McAfee前首席技术官、CrowdStrike现任首席执行官George Kurtz共同创立，他认识到内部传统玩家缺乏能力，以及允许纯粹的网络安全云解决方案的差距。他与Dmitri Alperovitch共同创立了该公司，后者曾在McAfee负责威胁研究，后来成为CrowdStrike的首席技术官。此后，他离职，现任首席技术官Michael Sentonas也曾担任McAfee的首席执行官，在网络安全领域拥有20多年的经验。</blockquote></p><p> If we ask ourselves why cybersecurity matters in the 21st century, just take one look at the world's largest container shipping company, A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBY), who according to the Wired magazine, suffered the most devastating cyberattack in history back in 2017, ultimately coming in at an estimatedlossof $300 million. We could add election interference and government sponsored cyber threats on top, suggesting that this is a highly prioritized area for both public and private institutions, giving strong signs of industry growth.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们问自己为什么网络安全在21世纪很重要，只要看看世界上最大的集装箱运输公司A.P.据《连线》杂志报道，默勒-马士基公司(OTCPK：AMKBY)在2017年遭受了历史上最具破坏性的网络攻击，最终估计损失达3亿美元。我们可以在上面添加选举干预和政府支持的网络威胁，这表明这是公共和私人机构高度优先的领域，给出了行业增长的强烈迹象。</blockquote></p><p> As far as I can see, there is a lot to like about this company and by the end of this decade I don't think it mattered whether one paid $175 or $225 per share, but whether one owned shares to begin with. I've wanted to initiate a position for a long time but waited for a pullback as other companies were trading more favorably. However, the current pullback allowed for initiating a position on December 13th at $209 per share. A position I intend to expand by dollar cost averaging.</p><p><blockquote>据我所知，这家公司有很多值得喜欢的地方，到本十年末，我认为一个人支付每股175美元还是225美元并不重要，重要的是一个人是否一开始就拥有股票。我想建仓很长时间了，但由于其他公司的交易更有利，我等待了回调。然而，当前的回调允许在12月13日以每股209美元的价格建仓。我打算通过平均成本法来扩大这个职位。</blockquote></p><p> <b>CrowdStrike's Business Model And Industry Position</b></p><p><blockquote><b>CrowdStrike的商业模式和行业地位</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike has consistently been recognized by Gartner as an EPP (End Point Protection) leader with the most recent publication in 2021. The visual overlook given in the research document isn't immediately free of charge, but the same ranking for 2019 is shown below, to provide a taste of how this industry can be categorized.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike一直被Gartner公认为EPP（端点保护）领导者，最新发布于2021年。研究文件中给出的视觉俯瞰并不是立即免费的，但下面显示了2019年的相同排名，以提供该行业如何分类的味道。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573a46128009538f9c3c494900deb212\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> One of the reasons it's marked as a leader comes down to completeness and effectiveness of its vision, to provide a customer solution that isn't characterized by high costs, complexity and ineffectiveness. The very issues that the company itself identifies with legacy players.</p><p><blockquote>它被标记为领导者的原因之一归结为其愿景的完整性和有效性，即提供一个不以高成本、复杂性和低效为特征的客户解决方案。该公司本身认为传统玩家存在的问题。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec4d8f5d820dbe401d7ffd02df7f559\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 8.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。8.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> CrowdStrike believes their product is apart from the rest by the nature of its cloud solution allowing for data access, giving constant protection, continuous learning and re-use of those learnings within its AI.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike认为，他们的产品因其云解决方案的性质而与众不同，该解决方案允许数据访问，提供持续保护、持续学习和在人工智能中重用这些学习。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>When a customer suffers a breach, that customer is made aware, and the data immediately digested within CrowdStrike's AI brain, known as Falcon and in this instance labelled \"The Threat Graph\". The breach is analyzed, and all other customers known to the cloud receives an update to detect and avoid a similar threat.</li> </ul> Herein also lies an important observation to the thesis underlying CrowdStrike over time. As the AI becomes smarter it strengthens its resilience towards cyber related threats but also makes it increasingly difficult for new entrants to match the services provided by CrowdStrike. On top is the network effect, suggesting the value proposition strengthens over time, as every new customer gives more value to the software and ecosystem.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>当客户遭受违规时，该客户会意识到，数据会立即在CrowdStrike的人工智能大脑中消化，该大脑被称为Falcon，在本例中被标记为“威胁图”。对违规行为进行分析，云已知的所有其他客户都会收到更新，以检测和避免类似的威胁。</li></ul>随着时间的推移，这也是对CrowdStrike背后的论点的一个重要观察。随着人工智能变得更加智能，它增强了对网络相关威胁的抵御能力，但也使新进入者越来越难以与CrowdStrike提供的服务相匹配。最重要的是网络效应，表明价值主张随着时间的推移而加强，因为每个新客户都会为软件和生态系统带来更多价值。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909a2c51271cf6f1f889ee2333b6626a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 12.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。12.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务</b></blockquote></p><p> CrowdStrike is building the business around a SaaS (subscription as a service) model, something which many legacy players would like to adopt, and which gives management strong forward visibility. Here follows a few stats for CrowdStrike to set the stage and understand its current size and operation.</p><p><blockquote>CrowdStrike正在围绕SaaS（订阅即服务）模式构建业务，这是许多传统参与者希望采用的模式，并且为管理层提供了强大的前瞻性视野。以下是CrowdStrike的一些统计数据，为了解其当前的规模和运营奠定基础。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c8775ec1bd442c072ef95d3a5777a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 6.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。6.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> As evident, growth is strong across the panel, supported by the vision of a business model promising much less friction for the customer. The company itself has labelled this a low friction go-to market strategy with ease of use when it comes to onboarding. And as you will see in a minute, once you become a customer of CrowdStrike, the chance you leave is slim.</p><p><blockquote>显然，在承诺为客户减少摩擦的商业模式愿景的支持下，整个面板的增长都很强劲。该公司本身将其称为低摩擦的上市策略，在入职时易于使用。正如你马上就会看到的，一旦你成为CrowdStrike的客户，你离开的机会就很小了。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>14.687 subscription customers as of Q3-22 (+74% Y/Y)</li>  <li>Annual Recurring Revenue $1.51 billion (+67% Y/Y)</li>  <li>63 of the Fortune 100 as current customers</li>  <li>14 of the top 20 banks</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d5f146b3e308cc0abf384378bd392\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 28.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至22年第3季度，订阅客户为14.687（同比增长74%）</li><li>年度经常性收入15.1亿美元（同比增长67%）</li><li>财富100强中的63家为现有客户</li><li>排名前20的银行中有14家</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。28.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the growth of ARR over the years, it's evident the company is doing something that customers value. Speaking of the customers, here is one of the strongest selling points for why CrowdStrike could be a winner for this decade and within its industry.</p><p><blockquote>从ARR多年来的增长来看，很明显该公司正在做一些客户重视的事情。说到客户，这是CrowdStrike能够成为这十年及其行业内赢家的最强卖点之一。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Dollar-Based Retention Rate</b>: showing how much revenue the company makes from its existing customer base over time. For the past 13 quarters, the company has exceeded a dollar-based retention rate of 120% suggesting that customers are pleased with the service they are procuring, to the point where they spend more money with CrowdStrike over time. A strong sign of customer satisfaction.</li>  <li><b>Gross retention</b>: Showing the number of customers the company manages to keep on its books as time passes, with the best possible outcome being 100%, which of course is an unrealistic achievement given some customers come and go, other go out of business etc. Gross retention is at 98% and has been in that ballpark for 14 quarters in a row - extremely impressive.</li> </ul> In other words, customer stay, and they allocate more spending with CrowdStrike over time, two incredibly strong selling points for why this company should have a bright future, and also why we as potential shareholders consistently have to pay a premium if we want in.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>以美元为基础的保留率</b>：显示随着时间的推移，公司从现有客户群中获得了多少收入。在过去的13个季度中，该公司以美元计算的保留率超过了120%，这表明客户对他们购买的服务感到满意，随着时间的推移，他们会在CrowdStrike上花更多的钱。顾客满意的强烈标志。</li><li><b>总保留率</b>：显示公司久而久之设法保留在账簿上的客户数量，最好的结果是100%，考虑到一些客户来来去去，另一些客户倒闭等，这当然是一个不切实际的成就。保留率为98%，连续14个季度保持在这个水平——非常令人印象深刻。</li></ul>换句话说，客户会留下来，随着时间的推移，他们会通过CrowdStrike分配更多支出，这是为什么这家公司应该拥有光明未来的两个令人难以置信的强大卖点，也是为什么我们作为潜在股东如果想加入，就必须始终支付溢价。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c454fe97b9f6fee141600816ffa29f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 30.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。30.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> A closer look at the customer base, and unsurprisingly, it has been growing massively in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>仔细观察客户群，不出所料，近年来它一直在大规模增长。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88973b4df7dcd2644e4c4652e4f79942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 18.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。18.</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With a TTM revenue of $1.28 billion, the company still has a significant runway when considering their estimated total addressable market. We of course need to maintain a sense of skepticism, given these numbers are company estimates, but it does illustrate the opportunities ahead. Given the examples I provided in the beginning of both public and private institutions being affected by cyber threats, then it is fair to say this marketplace will continue to expand throughout this decade. CrowdStrike estimates an 11% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 while currently growing much faster, which should remind us that CrowdStrike's growth will slow down at one point.</p><p><blockquote>TTM收入为12.8亿美元，考虑到估计的总目标市场，该公司仍有很大的发展空间。鉴于这些数字是公司的估计，我们当然需要保持怀疑态度，但它确实说明了未来的机会。鉴于我在开始时提供的公共和私人机构都受到网络威胁影响的例子，那么可以公平地说，这个市场将在这十年中继续扩大。CrowdStrike预计2022年至2024年复合年增长率为11%，而目前增长速度要快得多，这应该提醒我们CrowdStrike的增长将在某个时候放缓。</blockquote></p><p> Observing the TAM slide below, for those who we have followed the company for some time, you will have seen the number of services widen, as the company has expanded its platform and focus areas. Something that naturally add additional potential revenue to the pie for each new successful initiative.</p><p><blockquote>观察下面的TAM幻灯片，对于那些关注该公司一段时间的人来说，您会看到随着该公司扩大其平台和重点领域，服务数量有所增加。这自然会为每一个新的成功计划增加额外的潜在收入。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946272438a584bf1aea8ddfd4594024c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 22.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。22.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There is some uncertainty to how this marketplace could develop, but CrowdStrike has already addressed my skepticism, suggesting that companies in general still aren't allocating sufficient funds within their IT budgets to deal with the potential cyber threats out there. As with most other things, we probably need to see someone \"fall\" on the playground before the rest begin wearing protective gear. As such, we can decide to view the TAM estimates as both conservative or optimistic. Whenever I consider TAM estimates, I often prefer the conservative understanding of how a market could develop as to not be carried away by how the future could look like. In my own opinion, humans often adopt changes slower than what comes across in headlines. Just take the example of society wide adoption of automated driving, something that has been touted for a long time, yet we remain far away due to legislation in combination with other roadblocks. The strongest indicator for a bright future for CrowdStrike lies within its performance on gross retention and dollar-based retention rates.</p><p><blockquote>这个市场如何发展存在一些不确定性，但CrowdStrike已经解决了我的怀疑，表明公司总体上仍然没有在其IT预算中分配足够的资金来应对潜在的网络威胁。和大多数其他事情一样，在其他人开始穿防护装备之前，我们可能需要看到有人“摔倒”在操场上。因此，我们可以决定将TAM估计视为保守或乐观。每当我考虑TAM的估计时，我通常更喜欢对市场如何发展的保守理解，以免被未来的样子冲昏头脑。在我看来，人类接受变化的速度往往比头条新闻中看到的要慢。以全社会采用自动驾驶为例，这已经被吹捧了很长时间，但由于立法和其他障碍，我们仍然遥遥无期。CrowdStrike光明未来的最有力指标在于其在总保留率和基于美元的保留率方面的表现。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5fefcda5ca9e722ca3426a0a8f9502\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 24.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。24.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Show Me The Money</b></p><p><blockquote><b>给我看看钱</b></blockquote></p><p> As a high growth company, management must strike the balance of not over- or underspend on marketing and sales efforts to drive an expansion in revenue. The company reports on these efforts quarterly, and at the&nbsp;most recent quarter, CrowdStrike secured themselves $1.3 dollar in revenue for every dollar spend on sales and marketing efforts, while also securing a 77% performance when it comes to the \"rule of 40\", a typical metric used to gauge the health of a SaaS company. As given by its name, if you exceed 40 (combining growth and profit rates), then the business is in good health. As with any other metric, it shouldn't be allowed to speak on its own, but it does show that CrowdStrike is doing well. Basically, when seeing this metric, it allows one to understand if the company is striking the balance in terms of growing at a sustainable rate. In this case, CrowdStrike is growing immensely while having showed improved profitability in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>作为一家高增长公司，管理层必须在营销和销售工作上保持不过度或不足的平衡，以推动收入增长。该公司每季度报告一次这些工作，在最近一个季度，CrowdStrike在销售和营销工作上每花费1美元就能获得1.3美元的收入，同时在“40法则”（一种用于衡量SaaS公司健康状况的典型指标）方面也获得了77%的业绩。顾名思义，如果你超过40岁（综合增长率和利润率），那么企业健康状况良好。与任何其他指标一样，它不应该被允许自己说话，但它确实表明CrowdStrike做得很好。基本上，当看到这个指标时，它可以让人们了解公司是否在以可持续的速度增长方面取得了平衡。在这种情况下，CrowdStrike正在快速增长，同时近年来盈利能力有所提高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d272cba74422da924ed37351999ae4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 34.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2021年企业概览，第14页。34.</span></p></blockquote></p><p> There are clear signs of strong operating leverage if one observes the journey above with the gross margin being almost at where management would like in the long term.</p><p><blockquote>如果观察上面的旅程，就会有明显的迹象表明运营杠杆很强，毛利率几乎处于管理层长期希望的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>S&amp;M costs has dwindled from 101% of revenue in FY17 to 37% by this quarter</li>  <li>R&amp;D costs has dwindled from 73% of revenue in FY17 to 18% by this quarter</li>  <li>G&amp;A costs has dwindled from 30% of revenue in FY17 to 8% by this quarter</li> </ul> The target operating model (Non-GAAP) set by management shows the following drill down of its profit statement</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>S&amp;M成本已从2017财年占收入的101%下降至本季度的37%</li><li>研发成本占收入的比例已从2017财年的73%下降至本季度的18%</li><li>G&amp;A成本已从2017财年占收入的30%下降至本季度的8%</li></ul>管理层设定的目标运营模式（非公认会计准则）显示了其损益表的以下钻取</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Gross Margin (currently at 76%) to continue to rise toward 80%+</li>  <li>S&amp;M costs to fall towards 30-35%.</li>  <li>R&amp;D costs to settle between 15-20%.</li>  <li>G&amp;A costs to settle between 7-9%.</li>  <li>As a result, Operating margin should rise beyond 20%</li>  <li>Free cash flow margin of 30%+</li> </ul> I can't argue with the fact, that management has secured CrowdStrike is moving in the right direction to achieve its target operating model, meaning that I won't try to deny, that CrowdStrike could become a very profitable business.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>毛利率（目前为76%）将继续上升至80%以上</li><li>S&amp;M成本将下降30-35%。</li><li>R&amp;D成本稳定在15-20%之间。</li><li>G&amp;A成本稳定在7-9%之间。</li><li>因此，营业利润率应升至20%以上</li><li>自由现金流利润率30%+</li></ul>我无法否认这样一个事实，即管理层已经确保CrowdStrike正在朝着正确的方向前进，以实现其目标运营模式，这意味着我不会试图否认CrowdStrike可能成为一项非常有利可图的业务。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In that regard, it's also interesting to observe how the free cash flow has trended, while CrowdStrike currently holds $1.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Cash that can be utilized to secure organic growth or bolt-on acquisitions.</p><p><blockquote>在这方面，观察自由现金流的趋势也很有趣，而CrowdStrike目前在其资产负债表上持有19亿美元的现金和现金等价物。可用于确保有机增长或补强收购的现金。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201ce099da8656661e8197f14d990c80\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If I were to summarize this section, I'd highlight management's ability to drive continuous improvements within its operating structure, to the point where its target operating model isn't too far away. All of this while securing its \"rule of 40\" number comes in at 77%, quite impressive. Holding more cash than debt on its balance, the company is well padded to meet its future, while still growing immensely.</p><p><blockquote>如果我要总结这一部分，我会强调管理层推动其运营结构持续改进的能力，使其目标运营模式不再遥远。所有这些在确保其“40法则”数字的同时达到77%，相当令人印象深刻。该公司的资产负债表上持有的现金多于债务，为未来做好了充分的准备，同时仍在大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> The Outlook &amp; Valuation</p><p><blockquote>展望与估值</blockquote></p><p> Nothing of what I've covered here is hidden to Wall Street, which also means that we must accept a premium price, more on that in a minute.</p><p><blockquote>我在这里提到的所有内容都没有对华尔街隐藏，这也意味着我们必须接受溢价，稍后会详细介绍。</blockquote></p><p> According&nbsp;to 29 analysts following CrowdStrike, 19 of those are very bullish on the company, the highest amount and percentage in terms of distribution in the last three years. Their current average price target for the stock comes in at $293 per share, suggesting a 40% upside from the price today. Such targets don't make promises, but it gives an indication, that the stock could be at a relative bargain compared to how it has fared recently.</p><p><blockquote>据关注CrowdStrike的29名分析师称，其中19名分析师非常看好该公司，这是过去三年来分配金额和百分比最高的。他们目前对该股的平均目标价为每股293美元，较今天的价格上涨40%。此类目标并没有做出承诺，但它表明，与最近的表现相比，该股可能相对便宜。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b71928d037a3feeb3a532d90a47910f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Those same analysts also provide forecasts related to both top- and bottom-line, with the revenue outlook expected to maintain its strong growth. By the end of FY24, the company would (if the price remained stable) still be trading at a P/S of 17.8, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) both trading at around 8 just for comparison. I don't find those growth expectations unrealistic given what I've uncovered already so far, but no one can know for certain how the situation will look like in two years. Should CrowdStrike also manage to achieve the consensus EPS expectations from the same analyst group, then the company would still trade at a P/E of 146 by FY24.</p><p><blockquote>这些分析师还提供了与营收和利润相关的预测，预计收入前景将保持强劲增长。到2024财年末，该公司（如果价格保持稳定）的市盈率仍将为17.8，苹果公司(AAPL)和Alphabet公司()的市盈率均在8左右，仅供比较。鉴于我迄今为止已经发现的情况，我并不认为这些增长预期不切实际，但没有人能确定两年后的情况会是什么样子。如果CrowdStrike也能够实现同一分析师小组的普遍每股收益预期，那么到2024财年，该公司的市盈率仍将为146。</blockquote></p><p> If I were to try and understand where the current valuation is coming from, then I'd highlight that the company has grown its revenue by 2.400% since FY17 until now (The company went public in June 2019). Growing from a small base is more accommodating, but so far, the company hasn't shown evidence that it is about to slow down.</p><p><blockquote>如果我试图了解当前估值的来源，那么我会强调，自2017财年至今，该公司的收入增长了2.400%（该公司于2019年6月上市）。从小基地发展更容易适应，但到目前为止，该公司还没有表现出即将放缓的证据。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3564c72394432b565260261e1b7f951\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The company currently trades at an EV to revenue of 35.7, roughly the same as when the company went public, only difference being it has grown massively since then. If we observe the same picture but measured in percentage growth, we see the massive returns for shareholders. In fact, it is trading slightly lower than during its IPO when measured on EV to revenue, but shareholders have been rewarded richly due to the very strong revenue growth. As such, the growing share price hasn't been driven by an expansion in its multiples, but by the strong operational execution conducted by the company. Again, make no mistake, an EV/Revenue multiple of 35.7 is&nbsp;<b>very high</b>&nbsp;but by far not the highest it has been trading at since its IPO and as evident from its historical performance, also a level that can create shareholder value. In other words, the performance of the stock, is following the fundamentals of the company.</p><p><blockquote>该公司目前的EV与收入的比率为35.7，与公司上市时大致相同，唯一的区别是自那以后它已经大幅增长。如果我们观察同样的情况，但以百分比增长来衡量，我们会看到股东的巨大回报。事实上，以电动汽车与收入之比衡量，该公司的交易价格略低于IPO期间，但由于收入增长非常强劲，股东获得了丰厚的回报。因此，股价的上涨并不是由市盈率的扩张推动的，而是由公司强大的运营执行力推动的。同样，毫无疑问，35.7的EV/收入倍数是<b>很高</b>但到目前为止，这还不是自首次公开募股以来的最高交易价格，从其历史表现可以看出，这也是一个可以创造股东价值的水平。换句话说，股票的表现，是跟随公司的基本面。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e491308b358f0808edce26c8f5a3af64\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>A Few Thoughts On Risk</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于风险的几点思考</b></blockquote></p><p> Whenever a company trades at such multiples, there is very limited room for failure on especially top-line performance. A slight miss on revenue growth, or communication suggesting unclarity concerning coming quarters, or a guidance that is below analyst consensus estimates, any of those reasons can cause a significant downwards movement in the share price. Whenever that happens, it often requires a series of strong quarters and solid management communication for the street to regain confidence in the company.</p><p><blockquote>每当一家公司以这样的倍数交易时，失败的空间就非常有限，尤其是营收表现。收入增长略有下滑，或沟通表明未来几个季度的不确定性，或指引低于分析师的普遍预期，任何这些原因都可能导致股价大幅下跌。每当这种情况发生时，华尔街通常需要一系列强大的季度和坚实的管理沟通才能重拾对公司的信心。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Two companies who have fallen from similarly high levels during 2021 are DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). DocuSign due to weak revenue expectations and Pinterest due to uncertainty concerning the outlook for MAU (Monthly Active User) growth. Both of those companies were trading at above P/S ratios of 30 earlier this year, with CrowdStrike currently trading at DocuSign's peak from earlier this summer. Point being, the situation can change drastically in a very short time frame, and taking the example of Pinterest, management still hasn't managed to calm the investment community as evident by its continuous slip since uncertainty manifested itself. As such, both companies are down more than 30% YTD.</p><p><blockquote>2021年从类似高位下跌的两家公司是DocuSign Inc.(DOCU)和Pinterest公司(PINS)。DocuSign由于收入预期疲软，Pinterest由于MAU（月活跃用户）增长前景的不确定性。今年早些时候，这两家公司的市盈率均高于30，CrowdStrike目前的交易价格处于DocuSign今年夏天早些时候的峰值。关键是，情况可能会在很短的时间内发生巨大变化，以Pinterest为例，管理层仍然未能安抚投资界，自不确定性显现以来，其持续下滑就证明了这一点。因此，两家公司年初至今股价均下跌超过30%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49c64ea83323eaf94baf50118c8243e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The most common cause for concern, would be competition or that management has misunderstood how the market will develop, resulting in having to adjust expectations downwards. As shown in Gartner's quadrant earlier on in this article, the cybersecurity arena is a competitive one. Some of its characteristics is shifting technology and frequently changing products in an era where digitalization is undergoing rapid change.</p><p><blockquote>最常见的担忧原因是竞争或管理层误解了市场将如何发展，导致不得不下调预期。正如本文前面的Gartner象限所示，网络安全领域竞争激烈。在数字化快速变化的时代，它的一些特征是技术转移和产品频繁变化。</blockquote></p><p> With a market that is still fragmented, a changing competitive landscape could be the result of partnerships, acquisitions, or technological advancements. As mentioned, I see great value in the AI model of CrowdStrike combined with the network effects, but a significant technological advancement can't be predicted but could lay waste to CrowdStrike's future. As investors, it is paramount that we invest with open eyes, accepting that we face risks, especially in the situation of a high growth company still to reach its target operating model.</p><p><blockquote>由于市场仍然分散，竞争格局的变化可能是合作伙伴关系、收购或技术进步的结果。如前所述，我看到了CrowdStrike的人工智能模型与网络效应相结合的巨大价值，但重大的技术进步无法预测，但可能会毁掉CrowdStrike的未来。作为投资者，最重要的是我们要睁大眼睛进行投资，接受我们面临的风险，尤其是在一家高增长公司仍未达到其目标运营模式的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I'm a long-term investor, willing to hold onto my positions for years, waiting for them to unfold and tell their true story. In the case of CrowdStrike, we are dealing with a company with a hefty price tag no matter the valuation metric put to use, but also a company where the fundamentals have moved up and to the right at a blazing pace. Immense growth, strong development in its operating model and no signs of slowing down while having asserted its place in the cybersecurity industry combined with great network effects build into its service offering. CrowdStrike has what I look for in an industry winner, and I've initiated a position earlier in December, a position I plan on expanding as time goes by. I find that the recent pull-back offers some cushion in terms of downside pricing risks, but also want to underline that it still trades at very high multiples. Given my appetite for risk and the fact that similar high-flying growth companies have been put into the dust during 2021, I initiate a small position of 1-2% of my portfolio, with the willingness to grow it via dollar cost averaging. I do however believe, that when I look back at my investment in several years from now, that this company could be a market beater and that it mattered more that I held shares in the company than whether I initiated my position at $175 or $225 a share. Impressive gross retention of customers and a very impressive dollar-based retention rate tell me, that this company has managed to create a platform of services, which customers value highly and on top comes management continuous efforts towards expanding CrowdStrike's capabilities allowing for a growing total addressable market.</p><p><blockquote>我是一名长期投资者，愿意持有我的头寸多年，等待它们展开并讲述它们的真实故事。就CrowdStrike而言，无论采用何种估值指标，我们都在与一家价格高昂的公司打交道，但也是一家基本面快速向上和向右移动的公司。其服务产品实现了巨大的增长、运营模式的强劲发展以及没有放缓的迹象，同时确立了其在网络安全行业的地位，并具有巨大的网络效应。CrowdStrike拥有我所寻找的行业赢家，我在12月初设立了一个职位，我计划随着时间的推移扩大这个职位。我发现最近的回调在下行定价风险方面提供了一些缓冲，但也想强调的是，它的市盈率仍然非常高。鉴于我对风险的偏好以及类似的高速增长公司在2021年已被淘汰的事实，我建立了投资组合1-2%的小头寸，并愿意通过美元成本平均法来增加它。然而，我确实相信，当我几年后回顾我的投资时，这家公司可能会跑赢市场，而且我持有该公司的股票比我以每股175美元还是225美元的价格开始建仓更重要。令人印象深刻的客户总保留率和非常令人印象深刻的基于美元的保留率告诉我，这家公司已经成功创建了一个客户高度重视的服务平台，最重要的是管理层不断努力扩大CrowdStrike的能力，从而实现了不断增长的总目标市场。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476074-crowdstrike-buying-the-dip-here-is-why\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476074-crowdstrike-buying-the-dip-here-is-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107624786","content_text":"Summary\n\nCrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.\nIncredibly ability to retain customers and drive growth within its existing customer base are strong signs of a positive future for CrowdStrike.\nA founder-led company taking its point of departure in what the legacy providers weren't capable of.\nTrading 30% down from previous high something it hasn't done since the Covid-19 market crash.\nQ3-22 was yet another impressive quarter with strong top-line growth and positive free cash flow.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty Images\nCrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) is currently trading 30% off its 52-week high at a P/S ratio of 35.9, the cheapest it has been since the end of 2020. Does that indicate it's a bargain, no it doesn't, but quality comes at a price and given a closer look at how management has executed and with the outlook in mind, I believe that CrowdStrike is an appealing opportunity at the current levels. That doesn't take away the fact, that I'd be careful whenever I'm about to invest in a company trading at such extreme valuations as given the P/S example, but sometimes, an exception can be made from my standpoint.\nCrowdStrike offers a range of simple but efficient cybersecurity solutions anchored in the cloud in order to prevent breaches on the customer end. The solutions offered by the company rests on an AI that gets increasingly more intelligent as it identifies and deals with threats. In the words of the company itself, the AI gets smarter as it consumes more data. A few years ago, they managed a trillion 'signals' a week, which has now grown to a trillion a day, meaning the rate of data available is growing significantly.\nAs will become evident later on in this article, the company has proven extremely capable of customer retention proving the value of its services and also a strong up-selling ability as given by its dollar-based retention rates.\nThe company is co-founded by former Chief Technology Officer at McAfee and current CEO of CrowdStrike, George Kurtz, who recognized the lacking abilities of on-premises legacy players and the gap that allowed for a pure play cybersecurity cloud-based solution. He co-founded the company together with Dmitri Alperovitch who became Chief Technology Officer in CrowdStrike coming from a position of heading up threat research at McAfee. He has since then left his position, with the current CTOMichael Sentonas, also having been a leading executive at McAfee and holding more than 20 years' experience within cybersecurity.\nIf we ask ourselves why cybersecurity matters in the 21st century, just take one look at the world's largest container shipping company, A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBY), who according to the Wired magazine, suffered the most devastating cyberattack in history back in 2017, ultimately coming in at an estimatedlossof $300 million. We could add election interference and government sponsored cyber threats on top, suggesting that this is a highly prioritized area for both public and private institutions, giving strong signs of industry growth.\nAs far as I can see, there is a lot to like about this company and by the end of this decade I don't think it mattered whether one paid $175 or $225 per share, but whether one owned shares to begin with. I've wanted to initiate a position for a long time but waited for a pullback as other companies were trading more favorably. However, the current pullback allowed for initiating a position on December 13th at $209 per share. A position I intend to expand by dollar cost averaging.\nCrowdStrike's Business Model And Industry Position\nCrowdStrike has consistently been recognized by Gartner as an EPP (End Point Protection) leader with the most recent publication in 2021. The visual overlook given in the research document isn't immediately free of charge, but the same ranking for 2019 is shown below, to provide a taste of how this industry can be categorized.\n\nOne of the reasons it's marked as a leader comes down to completeness and effectiveness of its vision, to provide a customer solution that isn't characterized by high costs, complexity and ineffectiveness. The very issues that the company itself identifies with legacy players.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 8.\nCrowdStrike believes their product is apart from the rest by the nature of its cloud solution allowing for data access, giving constant protection, continuous learning and re-use of those learnings within its AI.\n\nWhen a customer suffers a breach, that customer is made aware, and the data immediately digested within CrowdStrike's AI brain, known as Falcon and in this instance labelled \"The Threat Graph\". The breach is analyzed, and all other customers known to the cloud receives an update to detect and avoid a similar threat.\n\nHerein also lies an important observation to the thesis underlying CrowdStrike over time. As the AI becomes smarter it strengthens its resilience towards cyber related threats but also makes it increasingly difficult for new entrants to match the services provided by CrowdStrike. On top is the network effect, suggesting the value proposition strengthens over time, as every new customer gives more value to the software and ecosystem.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 12.\nThe Business\nCrowdStrike is building the business around a SaaS (subscription as a service) model, something which many legacy players would like to adopt, and which gives management strong forward visibility. Here follows a few stats for CrowdStrike to set the stage and understand its current size and operation.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 6.\nAs evident, growth is strong across the panel, supported by the vision of a business model promising much less friction for the customer. The company itself has labelled this a low friction go-to market strategy with ease of use when it comes to onboarding. And as you will see in a minute, once you become a customer of CrowdStrike, the chance you leave is slim.\n\n14.687 subscription customers as of Q3-22 (+74% Y/Y)\nAnnual Recurring Revenue $1.51 billion (+67% Y/Y)\n63 of the Fortune 100 as current customers\n14 of the top 20 banks\n\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 28.\nLooking at the growth of ARR over the years, it's evident the company is doing something that customers value. Speaking of the customers, here is one of the strongest selling points for why CrowdStrike could be a winner for this decade and within its industry.\n\nDollar-Based Retention Rate: showing how much revenue the company makes from its existing customer base over time. For the past 13 quarters, the company has exceeded a dollar-based retention rate of 120% suggesting that customers are pleased with the service they are procuring, to the point where they spend more money with CrowdStrike over time. A strong sign of customer satisfaction.\nGross retention: Showing the number of customers the company manages to keep on its books as time passes, with the best possible outcome being 100%, which of course is an unrealistic achievement given some customers come and go, other go out of business etc. Gross retention is at 98% and has been in that ballpark for 14 quarters in a row - extremely impressive.\n\nIn other words, customer stay, and they allocate more spending with CrowdStrike over time, two incredibly strong selling points for why this company should have a bright future, and also why we as potential shareholders consistently have to pay a premium if we want in.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 30.\nA closer look at the customer base, and unsurprisingly, it has been growing massively in recent years.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 18.\nWith a TTM revenue of $1.28 billion, the company still has a significant runway when considering their estimated total addressable market. We of course need to maintain a sense of skepticism, given these numbers are company estimates, but it does illustrate the opportunities ahead. Given the examples I provided in the beginning of both public and private institutions being affected by cyber threats, then it is fair to say this marketplace will continue to expand throughout this decade. CrowdStrike estimates an 11% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 while currently growing much faster, which should remind us that CrowdStrike's growth will slow down at one point.\nObserving the TAM slide below, for those who we have followed the company for some time, you will have seen the number of services widen, as the company has expanded its platform and focus areas. Something that naturally add additional potential revenue to the pie for each new successful initiative.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 22.\nThere is some uncertainty to how this marketplace could develop, but CrowdStrike has already addressed my skepticism, suggesting that companies in general still aren't allocating sufficient funds within their IT budgets to deal with the potential cyber threats out there. As with most other things, we probably need to see someone \"fall\" on the playground before the rest begin wearing protective gear. As such, we can decide to view the TAM estimates as both conservative or optimistic. Whenever I consider TAM estimates, I often prefer the conservative understanding of how a market could develop as to not be carried away by how the future could look like. In my own opinion, humans often adopt changes slower than what comes across in headlines. Just take the example of society wide adoption of automated driving, something that has been touted for a long time, yet we remain far away due to legislation in combination with other roadblocks. The strongest indicator for a bright future for CrowdStrike lies within its performance on gross retention and dollar-based retention rates.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 24.\nShow Me The Money\nAs a high growth company, management must strike the balance of not over- or underspend on marketing and sales efforts to drive an expansion in revenue. The company reports on these efforts quarterly, and at the most recent quarter, CrowdStrike secured themselves $1.3 dollar in revenue for every dollar spend on sales and marketing efforts, while also securing a 77% performance when it comes to the \"rule of 40\", a typical metric used to gauge the health of a SaaS company. As given by its name, if you exceed 40 (combining growth and profit rates), then the business is in good health. As with any other metric, it shouldn't be allowed to speak on its own, but it does show that CrowdStrike is doing well. Basically, when seeing this metric, it allows one to understand if the company is striking the balance in terms of growing at a sustainable rate. In this case, CrowdStrike is growing immensely while having showed improved profitability in recent years.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 34.\nThere are clear signs of strong operating leverage if one observes the journey above with the gross margin being almost at where management would like in the long term.\n\nS&M costs has dwindled from 101% of revenue in FY17 to 37% by this quarter\nR&D costs has dwindled from 73% of revenue in FY17 to 18% by this quarter\nG&A costs has dwindled from 30% of revenue in FY17 to 8% by this quarter\n\nThe target operating model (Non-GAAP) set by management shows the following drill down of its profit statement\n\nGross Margin (currently at 76%) to continue to rise toward 80%+\nS&M costs to fall towards 30-35%.\nR&D costs to settle between 15-20%.\nG&A costs to settle between 7-9%.\nAs a result, Operating margin should rise beyond 20%\nFree cash flow margin of 30%+\n\nI can't argue with the fact, that management has secured CrowdStrike is moving in the right direction to achieve its target operating model, meaning that I won't try to deny, that CrowdStrike could become a very profitable business.\nIn that regard, it's also interesting to observe how the free cash flow has trended, while CrowdStrike currently holds $1.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Cash that can be utilized to secure organic growth or bolt-on acquisitions.\nData by YCharts\nIf I were to summarize this section, I'd highlight management's ability to drive continuous improvements within its operating structure, to the point where its target operating model isn't too far away. All of this while securing its \"rule of 40\" number comes in at 77%, quite impressive. Holding more cash than debt on its balance, the company is well padded to meet its future, while still growing immensely.\nThe Outlook & Valuation\nNothing of what I've covered here is hidden to Wall Street, which also means that we must accept a premium price, more on that in a minute.\nAccording to 29 analysts following CrowdStrike, 19 of those are very bullish on the company, the highest amount and percentage in terms of distribution in the last three years. Their current average price target for the stock comes in at $293 per share, suggesting a 40% upside from the price today. Such targets don't make promises, but it gives an indication, that the stock could be at a relative bargain compared to how it has fared recently.\n\nThose same analysts also provide forecasts related to both top- and bottom-line, with the revenue outlook expected to maintain its strong growth. By the end of FY24, the company would (if the price remained stable) still be trading at a P/S of 17.8, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) both trading at around 8 just for comparison. I don't find those growth expectations unrealistic given what I've uncovered already so far, but no one can know for certain how the situation will look like in two years. Should CrowdStrike also manage to achieve the consensus EPS expectations from the same analyst group, then the company would still trade at a P/E of 146 by FY24.\nIf I were to try and understand where the current valuation is coming from, then I'd highlight that the company has grown its revenue by 2.400% since FY17 until now (The company went public in June 2019). Growing from a small base is more accommodating, but so far, the company hasn't shown evidence that it is about to slow down.\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an EV to revenue of 35.7, roughly the same as when the company went public, only difference being it has grown massively since then. If we observe the same picture but measured in percentage growth, we see the massive returns for shareholders. In fact, it is trading slightly lower than during its IPO when measured on EV to revenue, but shareholders have been rewarded richly due to the very strong revenue growth. As such, the growing share price hasn't been driven by an expansion in its multiples, but by the strong operational execution conducted by the company. Again, make no mistake, an EV/Revenue multiple of 35.7 is very high but by far not the highest it has been trading at since its IPO and as evident from its historical performance, also a level that can create shareholder value. In other words, the performance of the stock, is following the fundamentals of the company.\nData by YCharts\nA Few Thoughts On Risk\nWhenever a company trades at such multiples, there is very limited room for failure on especially top-line performance. A slight miss on revenue growth, or communication suggesting unclarity concerning coming quarters, or a guidance that is below analyst consensus estimates, any of those reasons can cause a significant downwards movement in the share price. Whenever that happens, it often requires a series of strong quarters and solid management communication for the street to regain confidence in the company.\nTwo companies who have fallen from similarly high levels during 2021 are DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). DocuSign due to weak revenue expectations and Pinterest due to uncertainty concerning the outlook for MAU (Monthly Active User) growth. Both of those companies were trading at above P/S ratios of 30 earlier this year, with CrowdStrike currently trading at DocuSign's peak from earlier this summer. Point being, the situation can change drastically in a very short time frame, and taking the example of Pinterest, management still hasn't managed to calm the investment community as evident by its continuous slip since uncertainty manifested itself. As such, both companies are down more than 30% YTD.\nData by YCharts\nThe most common cause for concern, would be competition or that management has misunderstood how the market will develop, resulting in having to adjust expectations downwards. As shown in Gartner's quadrant earlier on in this article, the cybersecurity arena is a competitive one. Some of its characteristics is shifting technology and frequently changing products in an era where digitalization is undergoing rapid change.\nWith a market that is still fragmented, a changing competitive landscape could be the result of partnerships, acquisitions, or technological advancements. As mentioned, I see great value in the AI model of CrowdStrike combined with the network effects, but a significant technological advancement can't be predicted but could lay waste to CrowdStrike's future. As investors, it is paramount that we invest with open eyes, accepting that we face risks, especially in the situation of a high growth company still to reach its target operating model.\nConclusion\nI'm a long-term investor, willing to hold onto my positions for years, waiting for them to unfold and tell their true story. In the case of CrowdStrike, we are dealing with a company with a hefty price tag no matter the valuation metric put to use, but also a company where the fundamentals have moved up and to the right at a blazing pace. Immense growth, strong development in its operating model and no signs of slowing down while having asserted its place in the cybersecurity industry combined with great network effects build into its service offering. CrowdStrike has what I look for in an industry winner, and I've initiated a position earlier in December, a position I plan on expanding as time goes by. I find that the recent pull-back offers some cushion in terms of downside pricing risks, but also want to underline that it still trades at very high multiples. Given my appetite for risk and the fact that similar high-flying growth companies have been put into the dust during 2021, I initiate a small position of 1-2% of my portfolio, with the willingness to grow it via dollar cost averaging. I do however believe, that when I look back at my investment in several years from now, that this company could be a market beater and that it mattered more that I held shares in the company than whether I initiated my position at $175 or $225 a share. Impressive gross retention of customers and a very impressive dollar-based retention rate tell me, that this company has managed to create a platform of services, which customers value highly and on top comes management continuous efforts towards expanding CrowdStrike's capabilities allowing for a growing total addressable market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CRWD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630749732,"gmtCreate":1643066215028,"gmtModify":1643066215119,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630749732","repostId":"1135838595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630425851,"gmtCreate":1643026865792,"gmtModify":1643026865919,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3572841098185467","idStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630425851","repostId":"2205802723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1288,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}