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2022-02-20

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2022-02-17

Meta

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2022-02-15

Sea

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2022-02-13

Roblox

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2022-02-12

Inflation

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2022-02-11

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2022-02-11

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2022-02-10

Inflation

Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982

2022-02-09

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2022-02-06

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2022-02-05

Pltr

Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?

2022-02-04

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2022-02-01

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2022-01-29

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Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year

2022-01-26

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These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist

2022-01-25

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2022-01-24

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2022-01-20

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2022-01-14

Great

3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks

2022-01-12

Palantir

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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1644499821,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1173531022?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-10 21:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1173531022","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a 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It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Rises 7.5% over the past Year, the Highest since 1982\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-02-10 21:30</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.</p><p>The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.</p><p>That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.</p><p>Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.</p><p>The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.</p><p>Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1173531022","content_text":"Consumer prices in January surged more than expected over the past 12 months, indicating a worsening outlook for inflation and cementing the likelihood of substantial interest rate hikes this year.The consumer price index, which measures the costs of dozens of everyday consumer goods, rose 7.5% compared to a year ago, the Labor Department reported Thursday.That compared to Dow Jones estimates of 7.2% for the closely watched inflation gauge. It was the highest reading since February 1982.Stripping out volatile gas and grocery costs, the CPI increased 6%, compared to the estimate of 5.9%.The monthly rates also came in hotter than expected, with headline and core CPI both rising 0.6%, compared to the estimates for a 0.4% increase on both measures.Core inflation rose at its fastest level since August 1982.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633746630,"gmtCreate":1644363144623,"gmtModify":1644363144805,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Zoom","listText":"Zoom","text":"Zoom","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633746630","repostId":"2209583985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1050,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633289792,"gmtCreate":1644125903943,"gmtModify":1644125904110,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633289792","repostId":"1105432695","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633201726,"gmtCreate":1644064783506,"gmtModify":1644064783607,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633201726","repostId":"1196927717","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1196927717","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1644033090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1196927717?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-02-05 11:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1196927717","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account","content":"<html><head></head><body><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Palantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.</li><li>Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.</li><li>During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.</li><li>Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.</li><li>Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd7a77abaec0ea0aa58eebb9ce4b9606\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1187\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>agawa288/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p>I am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.</p><p><b>Risk/Reward Rating: Neutral</b></p><p>Palantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.</p><p><b>Customer Detail</b></p><p>Palantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.</p><p>The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0e38ee31a1d6e826d2d02216e39ac570\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"151\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b4dc61112528e104ef0d3a8dc80f89d1\" tg-width=\"581\" tg-height=\"481\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>For ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.</p><p>By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.</p><p>The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.</p><p>Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.</p><p>Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.</p><p><b>Investees</b></p><p>It is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4dda111182479c1fbaddc642369e4bd3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"264\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.</p><p>It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.</p><p>I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.</p><p>The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e06664e25242d0bacb6f2a64a7a80228\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"526\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.</p><p><b>Financial Performance</b></p><p>Turning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b09c2f2aada9cb30c8b720be23d096e2\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"156\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.</p><p><b>Geographic &amp; Segment Sales</b></p><p>The sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b19bc17658ff1b951eec789ec95deddd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"314\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9a553cc3913c2af281262da7b15bdc3c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"278\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.</p><p><b>Gross Profit &amp; KPI</b></p><p>Palantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:</p><blockquote>Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...</blockquote><p>As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.</p><p>I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/55c5e5fcea6102ca9d0542c130ee1d15\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"501\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.</p><p>Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7cc4e966e16c27ea17f99ccb08a18957\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"281\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>Notice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.</p><p><b>Operating Income</b></p><p>Turning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f5f344c289a598ec7824067b39c04f09\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"479\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>In the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.</p><p>The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&amp;D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.</p><p>As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.</p><p><b>Consensus Growth Estimates</b></p><p>If Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/022fd2d18964776a3e20294c7917548f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"241\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdox</span></p><p>I have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.</p><p>The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.</p><p>The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.</p><p>Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.</p><p><b>Valuation</b></p><p>Palantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.</p><p>Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.</p><p>On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.</p><p>The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.</p><p><b>Technicals</b></p><p>While the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e9aaa4f2a36fa507e420c9353d0cd91c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)</span></p><p>The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.</p><p>To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.</p><p>If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.</p><p>The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fa32fdab79f60368696ab122ff81b60a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"372\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/></p><p>The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>All told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: Red Flag Or Opportunity?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-02-05 11:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4484295-palantir-red-flag-or-opportunity","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1196927717","content_text":"SummaryPalantir has only 203 total customers as of Q3 2021, while just 20 of those customers account for 58% of total revenue.Revenue growth in Palantir’s core client cohort slowed to 20% annualized through the first three quarters of 2021 compared to 2020.During 2021, Palantir fundamentally transformed its go-to-market strategy. The company is now using its cash to aggressively invest in other companies (Investees) who agree to purchase Palantir’s software.Management continues to guide for 30% sales growth through mid-decade. However, Palantir’s 3-phase business model hints at sales trending lower excluding its Investee sales.Palantir offers extraordinary long-term growth potential which should place it on the watchlist of all growth investors. The investment case rests on the fulcrum between opportunity and red flags.agawa288/iStock via Getty ImagesI am assigning Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) a neutral risk/reward rating as the long-term growth opportunity is counterbalanced by near-term red flags. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, a number of notable red flags warrant caution. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error.Risk/Reward Rating: NeutralPalantir has an unusual business model compared to its peers in the enterprise software sector in regard to how it acquires and grows its customer base. The company categorizes its customers according to three phases of development or cohorts: (1) Acquire, (2) Expand, and (3) Scale. While they are generic terms that are applicable to all businesses, they are unique in the case of Palantir due to how the company approaches its customers.Customer DetailPalantir defines a customer in the Acquire cohort as one that has generated less than $100,000 of revenue as of year-end while being unprofitable to Palantir. The Expand cohort is characterized by a customer that generated more than $100,000 of sales yet remained unprofitable. Finally, the Scale cohort is defined as a customer that has generated more than $100,000 of revenue while being a profitable relationship for Palantir during the year.The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. The first table displays Palantir’s 2020 sales from each of the client cohorts which were categorized at the end of 2020 (2020 Revenue). In the 2021 Annualized column, you will find the sales of each of these 2020 customer cohorts through Q3 2021 annualized. In the second set of tables, I have compiled key details regarding Palantir’s largest customers over the past twelve months, as well as critical details pertaining to customers that are new to Palantir in 2021 which are not yet assigned to a cohort. Cohort categorization occurs at the end of each year.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxSource: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxFor ease of comparison, I have color-coded the information that is related. One of the dominant realities for Palantir is its concentrated customer base, which is highlighted in blue. Palantir has only 203 customers, with the top 20 accounting for 58% of sales.By definition, Palantir’s largest customers are in the Scale cohort. Through the first three quarters of 2021, the Scale cohort (categorized as such at the end of 2020) is growing at an annualized rate of 20%. Given that this group accounts for 86% of Palantir’s revenue, it will be challenging to move the sales growth needle materially above 20% without explosive growth from the other two cohorts or a material acceleration from the Scale cohort. It should be noted that management is guiding to 30% annual sales growth through mid-decade.The 2020 year-end Acquire and Expand cohorts are highlighted in yellow in the upper table. New customers in 2021 will not be assigned to a cohort until the year-end Palantir report. I have highlighted the pertinent 2021 new customer data in yellow for easy comparison to the 2020 Acquire and Expand customer cohorts. I view the 2021 new customer sales performance excluding sales to Investees to be a sustainable core growth rate. The Investee customer acquisition strategy is extraordinarily unusual and carries an exceedingly high capital risk which introduces reputational and, therefore, brand risk.Please note that Investee here refers to customers that Palantir has purchased the stock of in return for the Investee using Palantir’s software. Meaning, the revenue from Investees is a reciprocation of Palantir investing in the shares of these customers. In this respect, these are not arm’s-length transactions. I believe the new client numbers excluding sales to Investees is an important data point for ascertaining a purely market-based new customer growth rate.Similar to the Scale cohort growth rate annualizing at 20% in 2021, the new customer sales growth rate is annualizing at 22% through Q3 2021 compared to the $20.6 million of sales from the Acquire and Expand cohorts of 2020. While this is not a perfect comparison for sales growth from new customers, it is a fair estimation. As a result, Palantir appears to be trending toward an underlying sales growth rate closer to 20% than the company’s 30% sales growth guidance through mid-decade.InvesteesIt is important to step back and review Palantir’s investments in Investees as this is an extraordinarily unusual go-to-market strategy for customer acquisition. The above numbers, which suggest revenue growth is trending toward 20%, place Palantir’s use of its balance sheet cash to fund new customers in a new light. The following tables were compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q. The first table lists companies that Palantir has funded as of the end of Q3 2021. The second table displays Palantir’s investment commitments to new companies that are not yet funded.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have conducted a cursory review of each of the above companies. The common theme is that they are all early-stage companies in the most popular growth sectors. These sectors include EVs, robotics, flying electric vehicles, satellite services and drug discovery. None of the Investees appears to offer enough appreciation potential in its own right to move the needle materially for Palantir’s valuation. Palantir’s ownership stake ranges from 0.4% to 1.6%.It remains unclear how much of each company’s funding can be spent on Palantir’s software. Furthermore, it is not clear if the $19 million of revenue through Q3 2021 from these companies is sustainable.I have highlighted in blue Palantir’s total investment of $150 million in the seven companies. The yellow highlighted cell represents the current valuation of the investments. Palantir is now down approximately $64 million on these seven companies alone. This highlights an extreme risk for this method of customer acquisition as the capital losses to date dwarf the revenue generated. There are other private company investments not listed above, however, Palantir does not break out the details. They are included in other assets on Palantir’s balance sheet which amounted to $116 million as of Q3 2021.The following table displays Palantir’s commitments to invest in new companies as of Q3 2021. I have highlighted in yellow the two companies that Palantir funded subsequent to the end of Q3 2021.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in blue the total funding commitment for new investments as of Q3 2021. This is $252 million on top of the $150 million completed prior to the end of Q3. While I have not looked into these particular companies, they appear similar to the first seven investments reviewed above. Meaning, they appear to carry extreme capital risk with upside potential that is likely to be minimal when compared to the valuation upside inherent in Palantir’s software business. It should be noted that recent valuations were extreme and continue to contract rapidly. As a result, the timing risk for capital loss is also heightened by making the investments at the top of the VC/IPO cycle.Financial PerformanceTurning to Palantir’s recent performance, I have chosen to view sales growth excluding the Investees as this is the most likely sustainable growth trajectory. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC. I made an adjustment by removing Investee revenue to arrive at a net revenue figure.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted in yellow the 29% revenue growth in Q3 2021 after removing the Investee revenue. Investees added 6.5% to growth in Q3. Year-to-date, the Investee revenue accounted for 1.7% revenue growth. The 29% growth rate is already decelerating beneath the company’s 30% growth guidance through mid-decade. Keep in mind that the Investee revenue stream will grow with additional funding of Palantir’s investment commitments. Regardless, growth is decelerating rapidly at 29% in Q3 compared to 41% year-to-date excluding these non-arm’s-length sales.Geographic & Segment SalesThe sales slowdown is being led by France, which contracted 22% through the first three quarters of 2021 (highlighted in orange below). It should be noted that Palantir has had a material relationship with Airbus and the airline industry. This could be a negative read through for an important client and industry. While the US remained the best performer in Q3 2021, growth is slowing rapidly as is evidenced by the blue highlighted cells below. The table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q filed with the SEC.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn addition to France, the rest of the world is also slowing rapidly, from 45% through the first nine months of the year to 20% in Q3 2021. Please note that these are reported sales without any adjustments. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and highlights that the large sales slowdown in Q3 occurred in the Government segment. Please keep in mind that the Investee revenue is included in the figures below and added approximately 6.5% to the Q3 growth rate in the Commercial segment.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn summary, the Commercial segment is growing revenue rather steadily, approximately 29% excluding the Investee revenue. However, the Government segment is decelerating rapidly, from 57% through the first nine months of 2021 to 34% in Q3.Gross Profit & KPIPalantir’s unusual customer acquisition strategy predates the shift to Investees. The company’s sales and marketing expenses appear to be quite similar to the cost of goods sold for other companies. This is the case because Palantir offers prospective customers free pilot programs as opposed to requiring payment upfront for use of its software. Sales and marketing personnel execute the pilot programs and coordinate solution development in order to generate sales. The following quote from the Q3 2021 10-Q summarizes the situation:Sales and marketing costs primarily include salaries, stock-based compensation expense, and benefits for our sales force and personnel involved in executing on pilots and customer growth activities...As a result, I view the sales and marketing expense in the case of Palantir to be a cost of goods sold and reduction to gross margin. While this categorization does not affect the bottom line, it does serve to place the reported 78% gross margin in context.I believe this perspective on sales and marketing expense is helpful in thinking about Palantir’s business model in relation to other companies and relative valuations that rely on gross profit margins. The following table was compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q and displays the reported cost of revenue and sales and marketing expense adjusted by removing the related stock-based compensation expense from each line item.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the adjusted gross profit growth has slowed considerably to 25% in Q3 (highlighted in blue in the lower portion of the table) compared to 59% through the first nine months of 2021 (highlighted in yellow). The cost of sales is rising rapidly in Q3 2021 compared to the first nine months of the year.Palantir utilizes one KPI or Key Performance Indicator to judge performance and inform decision-making, which is referred to as Contribution Margin. It is similar to my adjusted gross margin figure above as can be seen in the following table compiled from Palantir’s Q3 2021 10-Q.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxNotice that the contribution row is remarkably similar to my adjusted gross profit row in the previous table. Additionally, the growth rate deceleration is similar, as can be seen in the highlighted cells. While 37% is materially different from my estimate of 25% growth, the step change lower from 64% is of similar amplitude.Operating IncomeTurning to operating income, I have adjusted the reported figures once again by removing stock option-related expenses as well as one-off expenses pertaining to the direct listing IPO in 2020. The overriding message is once again one of rapid deceleration. The following table was compiled from the same SEC filing and displays operating expenses excluding sales and marketing expenses, as well as my adjusted operating income estimate.Source: Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxIn the lower section of the table, notice the incredible deceleration in adjusted operating income to 40% growth in Q3 of 2021 compared to 266% growth through the first nine months of the year. General and administrative expenses accelerated rapidly in Q3 2021, while Palantir materially reduced research and development investment to just 5% growth in Q3.The research and development investment slowdown could be a negative read through for sales growth as R&D is an integral part of the sales process. Research and development expenses should track the sales cycle through the three customer phases: Acquire, Expand, and Scale. As customer needs are identified by sales and marketing, research and development expenses should respond to increased future sales potential. This does not appear to be happening at the moment.As of Q3 2021, Palantir is annualizing at an adjusted operating income run rate of approximately $300 to $320 million, or about $.16 per share. This is a before-tax operating income figure. The primary takeaway from the operating income front is that profitability is slowing rapidly. This provides additional color for the unusual Investee customer acquisition strategy being deployed.Consensus Growth EstimatesIf Palantir is producing at a $320 million adjusted annual operating income run rate and it was taxed at a normalized 25% rate, the current earnings power would be in the $240 million range or $.12 per diluted share. With this information and the growth deceleration outlined above, we can begin to put consensus earnings estimates into context. The following table was compiled from Seeking Alpha and displays consensus earnings and revenue estimates through 2023.Source: Seeking Alpha. Created by Brian Kapp, stoxdoxI have highlighted the 2022 consensus estimates for earnings and sales growth. Notice that the 39% consensus earnings growth estimate for 2022 is in line with the 40% operating income growth posted in Q3 of 2021. Additionally, the sales growth estimate of 30% is just above the 29% adjusted sales growth in Q3 2021 excluding sales to Investees.The 39% earnings growth expected for 2022 appears to be at material risk of being too high given the rapid slowdown in operating income to 40% in Q3 2021 compared to 266% through the first nine months of the year. This trajectory would likely place earnings growth for 2022 well below 39%.The 30% sales growth estimate for 2022 looks to be achievable given Palantir’s aggressive investment strategy in regard to Investees who then purchase Palantir software. I believe the market will tend to discount Investee sales as I have. Excluding these sales, the revenue growth trajectory appears to be trending closer to 20% than 30% for 2022, which opens the door to further growth disappointment.Looking to consensus estimates for 2023, the expected growth rates are remarkably similar to 2022. This straight-line growth forecast through 2023 adds to the risk that consensus estimates could be too high over the coming years. The current trajectory points to growth materially below that expected for 2022 and 2023.ValuationPalantir is trading at 87x the consensus earnings estimate for 2021 and 62x that for 2022. Please keep in mind that these are non-GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings estimates. On a GAAP basis, Palantir continues to produce at a loss. The reported loss in Q3 2021 was $92 million and was $352 million through the first nine months of 2021.Using the non-GAAP earnings estimates, 87x current year earnings and 62x forward earnings are extreme valuations from a historical market perspective. That said, they are within the realm of possibility for a growth stock in recent years. When viewed against Palantir’s rapidly slowing sales and operating income growth rates, as well as the heightened risk that consensus estimates may be too high, the current valuation multiples on consensus estimates offer little margin for error.On the sales front, Palantir is valued at 17x the consensus 2021 revenue estimate and 13x that for 2022. These are extreme price-to-sales multiples for a large-cap company from a historical perspective. My estimate of core sales growth trending toward 20% excluding Investee revenue suggests that these valuation multiples on sales also offer little margin for error.The valuation risks are further elevated when combined with the rapidly slowing operating income growth. Furthermore, as can be seen in my adjusted gross margin figure growing at 25% as of Q3 2021, the Palantir business model may not be supportive of a historically extreme price-to-sales valuation.TechnicalsWhile the fundamental backdrop points toward little margin for error and subdued excess return potential, the technical setup suggests more meaningful upside return potential. The following 3-year weekly chart offers a bird’s eye view of the potential technical return spectrum. I have highlighted the key resistance levels with orange horizontal lines and the primary support level with a green line.Palantir 3-year weekly chart. (Created by Brian Kapp using a chart from Barchart.com)The return potential to the nearest resistance levels of $19 and $22 is 43% and 65%, respectively. On the downside, the nearest support lies at the IPO price range near $10. The downside return potential to this level is -25%. It should be noted that Palantir’s short trading history of 16 months limits the usefulness of technical analysis. Additionally, with no trading history beneath the IPO price, it is unclear where support will be found if the $10 level is breached to the downside.To estimate downside potential beneath $10, I apply an earnings multiple of 40x the 2022 non-GAAP consensus earnings estimate. This valuation is twice that of the current market averages and would place Palantir shares at $8. This represents -40% downside risk from current levels.If the 39% consensus earnings estimate for 2022 is too high, further downside from $8 is in the realm of possibility. To estimate the downside risk potential if estimates are too high, I apply the same 40x non-GAAP earnings to my estimate of Palantir’s current annual run rate for fully-taxed, non-GAAP profitability. If earnings growth comes in at 25% for 2022 (my estimate of adjusted gross profit growth as of Q3 2021) on top of my estimate of $.12 for the current annual run rate of adjusted earnings after tax, the shares could trade down to $6. This would represent downside risk of -55%.The following daily chart provides a closer look at the technical backdrop.The technical picture suggests heavy resistance between $19 and $22. Given the unrelenting downtrend over the past three months, a near-term bounce is likely. That said, the upside technical potential combined with the downside fundamental potential leaves the shares with a balanced potential return spectrum of 65% to -55% over the near term.SummaryAll told, Palantir should be placed on the watchlist for high-risk growth investors. The long-term opportunity lies in becoming a foundational enterprise operating system capable of integrating structured and unstructured data for real-time intelligence. However, with notable red flags in the mix, caution is in order. The primary red flags include slowing sales, an unusual go-to-market shift, rapidly decelerating profitability, and an elevated valuation which offers limited margin for error. The resulting symmetry between risk and reward results in a neutral rating.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633844071,"gmtCreate":1643965234750,"gmtModify":1643965234860,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Meta","listText":"Meta","text":"Meta","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633844071","repostId":"1180306841","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":528,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":633972114,"gmtCreate":1643721274143,"gmtModify":1643721314882,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pltr","listText":"Pltr","text":"Pltr","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/633972114","repostId":"1196808170","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639720150,"gmtCreate":1643465654826,"gmtModify":1643465654972,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639720150","repostId":"1157223555","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157223555","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1643443466,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157223555?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-29 16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-29 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":639133016,"gmtCreate":1643191926915,"gmtModify":1643191976590,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/639133016","repostId":"2206839931","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2206839931","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1643159234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2206839931?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-26 09:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2206839931","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street se","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&amp;P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6299898c03b6402dcbb113b2e0d5d500\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"674\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>&#34;At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,&#34; noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.</p><p>&#34;The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,&#34; Michael O&#39;Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. &#34;Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.&#34;</p><p>And don&#39;t forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.</p><p>With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face &#34;six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,&#34; said O&#39;Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.</p><p>Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday&#39;s late rally a &#34;head fake,&#34; saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don&#39;t see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.</p><p>One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That&#39;s unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/83b52eb7aa303fdbbe10ddaa0eb2f313\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"935\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn&#39;t see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&amp;P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06249e70d9dfd4fbfcca05669cd55d2a\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"457\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Three. Global M2 money supply -- that&#39;s money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China&#39;s currency weakens.</p><p>&#34;China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&amp;P 500,&#34; says Bannister and the team. So the next &#34;shoe to drop&#34; is a weaker yuan.</p><p>Four. S&amp;P 500 quarterly EPS &#34;beats&#34; minus &#34;misses,&#34; which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.</p><p>&#34;When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&amp;P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&amp;P 500 price,&#34; says Bannister and the team.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/28adcdc4b43adb4a23dd1150473e5c7b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.</p><p>&#34;Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food &amp; energy costs,&#34; as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.</p><p>And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,&#34; they add.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bb3b450edd41ba498e1ae8b2e1e3124c\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"429\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the &#34;nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,&#34; adds Bannister.</p><p>Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&amp;P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to &#34;the third bubble in 100 years.&#34; </p></body></html>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese five signals will tell you when the Wall Street correction is over, says veteran strategist\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-26 09:07 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.\"...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BK4567":"ESG概念","BK4568":"美国抗疫概念","SPOT":"Spotify Technology S.A.","MSFT":"微软","BK4170":"电脑硬件、储存设备及电脑周边","BK4512":"苹果概念","BK4108":"电影和娱乐","BK4550":"红杉资本持仓","BK4535":"淡马锡持仓","BK4097":"系统软件","BK4559":"巴菲特持仓","BK4533":"AQR资本管理(全球第二大对冲基金)","BK4115":"综合电信业务","BK4525":"远程办公概念","LMT":"洛克希德马丁","BK4534":"瑞士信贷持仓",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BK4504":"桥水持仓","BK4564":"太空概念","BK4532":"文艺复兴科技持仓","BK4503":"景林资产持仓","BK4516":"特朗普概念",".DJI":"道琼斯","BK4007":"制药","XRX":"施乐","BK4527":"明星科技股","BK4166":"消费信贷","BK4528":"SaaS概念","BK4134":"信息科技咨询与其它服务","BK4515":"5G概念","AXP":"美国运通","BK4566":"资本集团","BK4501":"段永平概念","IBM":"IBM","BK4548":"巴美列捷福持仓","BK4187":"航天航空与国防","SPY":"标普500ETF","BK4538":"云计算","BK4206":"工业集团企业","VZ":"Verizon Comms","JNJ":"强生","BK4554":"元宇宙及AR概念",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MMM":"3M"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/these-five-signals-will-tell-you-when-the-wall-street-correction-is-over-says-veteran-strategist-11643113067?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2206839931","content_text":"Market volatility looks set to stick around, with stock futures dropping after a wild Wall Street session that harked back to 2008, as the S&P 500  and Nasdaq  dug out of deep losses to close higher.\"At one point Monday it felt like we were in a full-blown crisis let alone a recession,\" noted Deutsche Bank strategist Jim Reid and his team. As JPMorgan reports, some individual investors threw in the towel on Monday, and ahead of a huge newsy week.\"The next three days have the potential to make or break the U.S. equity market,\" Michael O'Rourke, chief market strategist at JonesTrading, told clients. \"Tuesday, Microsoft reports earnings after the close. Wednesday is the FOMC [Federal Open Market Committee] decision, or more precisely nondecision day, and on Thursday, Apple reports earnings.\"And don't forget the brewing geopolitical troubles between the West and Russia over Ukraine.With few expecting any move from the Federal Reserve this week, investors could face \"six weeks of investor limbo as they await the policy tightening cycle to commence,\" said O'Rourke. Still, by late Thursday, they may at least have more Fed and earnings clarity.Our call of the day comes from a team of strategists led by Barry Bannister at Stifel. The strategists are calling Monday's late rally a \"head fake,\" saying investors need five things to happen for stocks to bottom (they don't see this happening before late first quarter 2022) and the bull market to resume, and none of them look viable right now.One. A more dovish Fed, which would likely lower the 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Security real yield that has been pressuring growth stock price/earnings ratios. That's unlikely before the markets get the first rate increase, says Stifel.Two. The U.S. purchasing managers index for manufacturing index must bottom, which Stifel doesn't see happening before April. Often, the annual PMI index change correlates with or leads year-to-year S&P 500 price, earnings per share and industrial production, they note.Three. Global M2 money supply -- that's money held by the public -- must bottom, and again this is unlikely until China's currency weakens.\"China is 37% of global money supply in dollar terms and a weaker Chinese yuan would send the dollar up and growth in global money supply in dollar terms down, tightening U.S. financial conditions and lower the P/E ratio for the S&P 500,\" says Bannister and the team. So the next \"shoe to drop\" is a weaker yuan.Four. S&P 500 quarterly EPS \"beats\" minus \"misses,\" which have weakened since the second half of 2021 and have been pressuring stocks, need to calm down.\"When EPS beats minus misses are under pressure, in this case falling below the long-term trend (blue line), investors in the S&P 500 must learn to live with diminished policy support while also being subject to a lessening of the year/year change in S&P 500 price,\" says Bannister and the team.Five. That geopolitical mess to the East must be settled without hurting U.S. consumers.\"Ukraine events will matter: the West retaliating against a major global energy producer like Russia over possible Ukraine events may lead to a sharp decline in U.S. after-tax income after deducting household food & energy costs,\" as shown in the below chart, says Bannister and the team.And when that happens, the Senate and U.S. House of Representatives are usually lost for the party in power,\" they add.Russia has designs on eastern Ukraine only, and has the \"nondollar reserves, power over EU energy flows, popular support in Russia and firepower to accomplish their goal of a USSR-style buffer zone separating them from the West,\" adds Bannister.Note, while Stifel have admitted it messed up with a summer 2021 correction call, in December it forecast the S&P 500 would hit 4,200 by the first quarter, recommending investors take shelter in defensives and clear out of cyclicals. It also warned that the Fed losing its nerve on rate increases could lead to \"the third bubble in 100 years.\"","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":466,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630749732,"gmtCreate":1643066215028,"gmtModify":1643066215119,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630749732","repostId":"1135838595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630425851,"gmtCreate":1643026865792,"gmtModify":1643026865919,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630425851","repostId":"2205802723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630306729,"gmtCreate":1642686633475,"gmtModify":1642686642539,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630306729","repostId":"2204058661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":697065156,"gmtCreate":1642167767437,"gmtModify":1642167794785,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/697065156","repostId":"1144666508","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144666508","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1642160056,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144666508?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-14 19:34","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144666508","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, so","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.</p><p>To be sure, most meme stocks aren&#39;t worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it&#39;s tough to make a long-term investment case for <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a>.</b> On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there&#39;s been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.</p><p><b>A massive opportunity and a great strategy</b></p><p><b>Offerpad</b>(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad&#39;s core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.</p><p>However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won&#39;t be consistently profitable for some time, it isn&#39;t that far from it right now.</p><p>Second, Offerpad isn&#39;t necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.</p><p>Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.</p><p><b>Tons of disruptive potential</b></p><p>One of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SOFI\"><b>SoFi</b></a>, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was &#34;IPOE&#34; for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.</p><p>To say SoFi&#39;s growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech&#39;suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it&#39;s on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.</p><p>SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.</p><p><b>The most exciting growth is yet to come</b></p><p>Last but certainly not least, insurance disruptor <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/LMND\"><b>Lemonade</b></a> has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.</p><p>Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company&#39;s core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.</p><p>However, it&#39;s the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company&#39;s much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of <b>Metromile</b>(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.</p><p>Remember what you&#39;re buying</p><p>To be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it&#39;s important to keep in mind that while the &#34;meme stock&#34; craze has died down, that doesn&#39;t mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it&#39;s important to be prepared for that possibility.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks That Are Actually Solid Long-Term Picks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-14 19:34 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/><strong>Motley Fool</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2022/01/14/3-meme-stocks-that-are-actually-solid-long-term-pi/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144666508","content_text":"The meme stock craze of 2021 was certainly a historically unique market environment. Many stocks, some heavily shorted and some just interesting speculative growth plays, rocketed sharply higher -- often doubling, tripling, or more in a very short time. And many took investors on quite a roller coaster ride for months.To be sure, most meme stocks aren't worth buying as long-term investments. For example, it's tough to make a long-term investment case for AMC Entertainment. On the other hand, there are some stocks that got caught up in the meme stock trade that looks like solid long-term investments. And this is especially true now that there's been a massive correction in many high-growth stocks.A massive opportunity and a great strategyOfferpad(NYSE:OPAD) is a real estate company that is a so-called iBuyer, or instant buyer, of homes. Offerpad's core business involves buying homes directly from sellers, doing cosmetic repairs, and then selling them directly to buyers, hopefully earning a profit in the process.However, there are a couple of things that set Offerpad apart from its peer group (which really only consists of two other companies). For one thing, Offerpad is the only iBuyer that is more focused on efficiency than all-out growth. Its unit economics have been better than those of its peers, and while it won't be consistently profitable for some time, it isn't that far from it right now.Second, Offerpad isn't necessarily trying to completely replace open-market home sales. Its Offerpad Flex product encourages customers to list their home on the open market (with an Offerpad partner agent) and gives them a cash offer to keep in their back pocket in the event they get tired of the traditional sale process.Offerpad went a bit meme-stockish after its late 2021 special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) merger was completed, at one point rocketing to nearly $21 from its $10 pre-SPAC valuation. Now that the SPAC boom has cooled, Offerpad has plunged to less than $6, in line with many other recent SPAC targets. But make no mistake -- this is a real business with a huge market opportunity.Tons of disruptive potentialOne of the most discussed stocks in some of the most popular trader chat rooms in 2021, SoFi, went public through a Chamath Palihapitiya-backed SPAC last year (this was \"IPOE\" for those who follow Palihapitiya). It started out as a private student loan company but has since evolved into a financial ecosystem, complete with a full lineup of lending products, a credit card, a bank account, a brokerage account, and more. The company also owns the Galileo financial services API and payments platform, which provides functionality for 89 million financial accounts operated by partners.To say SoFi's growth has been phenomenal would be an understatement. Thefintech'suser base has nearly doubled over the past year to more than 2.9 million members, and these users account for roughly 4.3 million different financial products. And it's on the non-lending side of the business where the growth has been especially impressive, with a 179% year-over-year increase in products as of the third quarter of 2021.SoFi has the capability to be a true disruptor of the traditional bank model and is making all the right moves to scale its business in a sustainable way. With shares down 36% in the last two months, now could be a great time to add it at a discount.The most exciting growth is yet to comeLast but certainly not least, insurance disruptor Lemonade has been a big victim of the recent growth stock headwinds, with shares down by about 35% in the past couple of months and a total of 80% off their all-time high.Lemonade is aninsurance technology company, aiming to provide a better way to get insurance quotes, buy policies, and submit claims. In the company's core business of renters and homeowners insurance, customer feedback has been incredibly strong.However, it's the rollout of Lemonade Car, the company's much-anticipated auto insurance product -- along with the pending acquisition of Metromile(NASDAQ:MILE)-- where Lemonade could accelerate the availability of the product and rapidly scale the business. If the company can replicate its early insurance success in the auto space, and can keep loss ratios in check, Lemonade could be a big winner for patient investors.Remember what you're buyingTo be sure, these three stocks are real businesses with great long-term growth opportunities. However, it's important to keep in mind that while the \"meme stock\" craze has died down, that doesn't mean it has permanently gone away. And if it comes back, all three of these stocks are likely to experience quite a roller coaster ride. Before you add any of these to your portfolio, it's important to be prepared for that 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16:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157223555","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve wi","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.</p><p>Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.</p><p>Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.</p><p>The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.</p><p>Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades</p><p>“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”</p><p>The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.</p><p>Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.</p><p>Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase &amp; Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.</p><p>Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.</p><p>Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Goldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Sachs Predicts Fed Will Raise Rates Five Times This Year\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2022-01-29 16:04 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/goldman-sachs-predicts-fed-raise-071350897.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157223555","content_text":"Goldman Sachs Group Inc.’s economists joined Wall Street peers in forecasting the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates more aggressively than they previously expected.Economists led by Jan Hatzius now predict the Fed will lift its near zero benchmark by 25 basis points five times this year rather than on four occasions. That would take the benchmark to 1.25%-1.5% by the end of the year.Shifts are now seen by Goldman Sachs in March, May, July, September and December. They also expect officials to announce the start of a balance sheet reduction in June.The switch came days after Fed Chair Jerome Powell said officials were ready to raise rates in March and left the door open to moving at every meeting if needed to curb the fastest inflation in 40 years. A government report on Friday showed the Employment Cost Index rose 4% in the year through December, the most in two decades.Fed Kicks Off Most Aggressive Global Tightening in Decades“The evidence that wage growth is running above levels consistent with the Fed’s inflation target has strengthened, and we have revised up our inflation path,” the Goldman Sachs economists said in a report to clients. “In addition, Chair Powell’s comments earlier this week made it clear that the Fed leadership is open to a more aggressive pace of tightening.”The Fed could still switch gears if market conditions change or the economy decelerates much faster than projected, or tighten monetary policy even more than forecast if inflation remains high enough, they said.Even as they agreed the Fed will do more than they previously bet, banks were divided this week over how aggressive policy makers would be.Bank of America Corp. now predicts seven rate hikes in 2022 and BNP Paribas SA forecasts six, while JPMorgan Chase & Co. and Deutsche Bank AG see five.Nomura Holdings Inc. even reckons the central bank will deliver a 50 basis points increase in March, which would be the biggest move since 2000.Bloomberg Economics is sticking with the projection of five hikes it made earlier this month, though Chief Economist Anna Wong said this week there is a risk of six increases.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":338,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695756684,"gmtCreate":1641619637645,"gmtModify":1641620538547,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695756684","repostId":"2201219990","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":315,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696422097,"gmtCreate":1640751429205,"gmtModify":1640751429329,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696422097","repostId":"2194074487","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":212,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630306729,"gmtCreate":1642686633475,"gmtModify":1642686642539,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630306729","repostId":"2204058661","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":520,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695871465,"gmtCreate":1641432528395,"gmtModify":1641432528481,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695871465","repostId":"1145850594","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":192,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":692892510,"gmtCreate":1640909817542,"gmtModify":1640909817639,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great","listText":"Great","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/692892510","repostId":"1106092668","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106092668","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640876653,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106092668?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-30 23:04","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106092668","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Unde","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Limited Shares Jumped More Than 4% in Morning Trading\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-12-30 23:04</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/448dcc7d589843674730e046aa6ef96a\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p><b>Also Read:</b><b>Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent Selloff</b></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><ul><li>Sea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.</li><li>I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.</li><li>I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/aa5cbe0a30acc723a2c6f62300024002\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty Images</span></p><p><b>Thesis</b></p><p>A by-parts analysis of Sea Limited&#39;s (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.</p><p><b>Introduction</b></p><p>I recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I&#39;d already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.</p><p>Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don&#39;t speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It&#39;s one of my only losing positions that I didn&#39;t sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.</p><p>It&#39;s also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it&#39;s the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.</p><p>Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.</p><p><b>Gaming</b></p><p>Sea Limited&#39;s gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.</p><p>The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it&#39;s particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it&#39;s been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.</p><p>With the game having been popular for a long time already, there&#39;s some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.</p><p>Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it&#39;s the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea&#39;s non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.</p><p>Thus, one reason for Sea&#39;s recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e299727cc28a887a36d88831aec8f53\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"334\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: Earnings Call Presentation</span></p><p>In Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.</p><p>While 20% isn&#39;t a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn&#39;t spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena&#39;s growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).</p><p>Garena&#39;s implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I&#39;ll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today&#39;s market.</p><p>This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management&#39;s guidance.</p><p>I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:</p><ul><li>Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.</li><li>The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.</li><li>Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.</li><li>Although I&#39;d obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it&#39;s still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena&#39;s revenue.</li></ul><p><b>E-Commerce</b></p><p>Sea&#39;s e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.</p><p>There&#39;s always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba&#39;s (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don&#39;t publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn&#39;t published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.</p><p>One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/180367a2b64bccebf243c5b6d8fb776a\" tg-width=\"455\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from Alexa</span></p><p>Shopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.</p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6544f014a5d70d13ee14dab0ac8b6782\" tg-width=\"422\" tg-height=\"403\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"/><span>Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnie</span></p><p>On the mobile side, there&#39;s no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.</p><p>Of course, traffic doesn&#39;t always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it&#39;s a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It&#39;s Shopee&#39;s dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.</p><p>So why would a company with so much potential sell off?</p><p>After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it&#39;s bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO&#39;s comments that they don&#39;t have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won&#39;t help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they&#39;re successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.</p><p>Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it&#39;s hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.</p><p>The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That&#39;s 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon&#39;s $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it&#39;s just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA&#39;s.</p><p>Despite being in a blue skies industry, it&#39;s more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee&#39;s success is not guaranteed because it&#39;s not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.</p><p>For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it&#39;s difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it&#39;s worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea&#39;s Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies&#39;, and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).</p><p>To understand Shopee&#39;s terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon&#39;s high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.</p><p>If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it&#39;s easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon&#39;s P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.</p><p>Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee&#39;s mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment&#39;s future. I recognize that it&#39;s currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.</p><p>So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.</p><p>Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let&#39;s look at the other parts of Sea.</p><p><b>FinTech &amp; Investments</b></p><p>The easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea&#39;s $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won&#39;t be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.</p><p>Then there is Sea&#39;s FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a &#34;take rate&#34; of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I&#39;m not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.</p><p>Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it&#39;s now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it&#39;s only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea&#39;s sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea&#39;s management - combined with Garena&#39;s ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It&#39;s certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.</p><p>If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre&#39;s revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa&#39;s, Mastercard&#39;s (NYSE:MA), and Affirm&#39;s (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies&#39;, but we don&#39;t even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea&#39;s current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.</p><p>One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started &#34;early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.&#34; These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.</p><p>Finally, there&#39;s the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There&#39;s strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea&#39;s investment arm is very early stage, so I don&#39;t include it in my valuation model. But it doesn&#39;t have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It&#39;s just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.</p><p><b>Conclusion</b></p><p>Looking at each of Sea&#39;s segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn&#39;t account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea&#39;s business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn&#39;t take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.</p><p>This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven&#39;t been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today&#39;s prices. It&#39;s a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today&#39;s market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.</p><p>Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It&#39;s one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd"},"source_url":"","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106092668","content_text":"Sea Limited shares jumped more than 4% in morning trading.Also Read:Sea Limited: A Deep Dive To Understand The Recent SelloffSummarySea Limited is a highly diversified business firing on all cylinders in some of the fastest-growing economies in the world.I dive into each of its segments to understand the recent selloff and justify the current valuation.I consider Sea one of my ten highest conviction investments.kokkai/iStock Unreleased via Getty ImagesThesisA by-parts analysis of Sea Limited's (NYSE:SE) segments shows that its current valuation is roughly fair, but there are many long-term growth drivers that could surprise to the upside and drive very strong returns for years to come.IntroductionI recently wrote an article highlighting my top 10 stock picks for 2022. I'd already done an in-depth analysis of my other nine picks in other Seeking Alpha articles, so I thought it would be good to close out the year with an article about Sea.Furthermore, with shares down significantly over the past couple of months (but still slightly up for the year), I believe this article may prove timely. I don't speculate on short-term market movements, but I personally added to my Sea shares recently. It's one of my only losing positions that I didn't sell out of temporarily for tax-loss harvesting, and in this article, I will explain why Sea is such a high conviction holding for me.It's also worth noting that many professional investors seem to share this opinion. Sea is the 121st largest company in the world, but it's the16thmost popular holding among hedge funds. This implies that big money is overweight Sea, with 71% of shares held by institutions.Because Sea operates in many different areas, I will do a separate analysis of each of its operating segments to justify its current valuation and explain how that valuation could drive unexpectedly strong returns for years.GamingSea Limited's gaming segment Garena is best known for Free Fire, a mobile battle royale game that was developed in-house.The game was released in 2017 and has been very popular ever since. It currently has the second most monthly active users among all Android games globally. The game is available worldwide, but it's particularly popular in emerging markets like SEA, LATAM, and India, where it's been the highest-grossing mobile game for over two years.With the game having been popular for a long time already, there's some concern that gamers will move on to the next big thing. Although there are some mobile games that are older than Free Fire and still very popular - like Roblox, Clash of Clans, and Pokemon Go - there are many more that have been forgotten. Until Garena releases more games and proves that it can be successful with them too, there will always be questions about whether its studio is a one-hit wonder.Regardless, Garena is a critical part of Sea because it's the only profitable segment and it doubles a social platform that provides free advertising for Sea's non-gaming products. Cross-promotion is a huge competitive advantage for Sea.Thus, one reason for Sea's recent selloff could be the Q4 guidance implied for Garena.Source: Earnings Call PresentationIn Q2 this year, Garena raised its guidance to $4.5B-$4.7B for 2021 bookings (up from $4.3B-$4.5B). With the first three quarters already totaling $3.5B, this implies that Q4 bookings will come in at $1.0B-$1.2B, up between 0% and 20% year over year, and likely down sequentially. This is compared to 29% growth in the most recent quarter and 44% projected growth for the full year.While 20% isn't a terrible deceleration, 0% certainly is. Even 20% growth isn't spectacular compared to the historic levels. At the 10% midpoint, Garena's growth looks more similar to that of a mature company like Activision (NASDAQ:ATVI) or Zynga (NASDAQ:ZNGA) than a fast-growing company like Roblox (NYSE:RBLX).Garena's implied valuation should - and did - suffer as a result. While a fast-growing company like Roblox can command a high double-digit P/S multiple, Activision and Zynga trade at an average P/S multiple of just 4. Garena is slightly more profitable than them and probably has more risk to the upside, so I'll use a P/S multiple of 5 for my implied valuation. This implies a P/E of about 10 for a business growing at around 10%, which is very reasonable in today's market.This means Garena is worth $23.5B based on the high end of management's guidance.I believe this valuation is actually conservative for a few reasons:Next year has tough comps and growth could re-accelerate in the following years or even next year, especially if Garena releases a new hit game. The growth rate past next quarter is not based on explicit guidance from the company, only industry forecasts.The peer valuations I used are from companies also trading at the lower end of their valuation range for the past year.Garena has a good track record and is continuing to invest in Free Fire. One example of this is the recently released Free Fire MAX, which improves the experience for users with higher-end phones and even adds a metaverse-like customizable map called Craftland. To me, this implies that Garena believes Free Fire is still in the earlier part of its lifecycle.Although I'd obviously prefer that Garena develops more games in house, in the meantime it's still not a one-trick pony. In addition to Free Fire, Garena distributes games from third-party developers like Tencent (OTCMKTS:OTCPK:TCEHY). These are popular titles like League of Legends and Call of Duty, which meaningfully diversify Garena's revenue.E-CommerceSea's e-commerce platform Shopee is currently its big growth driver. This platform is often considered the Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN) of Southeast Asia, and it recently expanded into more markets including Brazil.There's always some debate about who is really the Amazon of a region. Shopee certainly has competition, including from Alibaba's (NYSE:BABA) Lazada, Tokopedia in Indonesia, MercadoLibre (MELI) in Brazil, and even Amazon itself. With most of the competition being private or tucked away into a larger company, many of the competitors don't publish exact revenue numbers, which makes it difficult to measure the competition. Even Sea hasn't published explicit revenue numbers for some countries like Brazil.One neutral source that can be assessed is the Alexa site rank, which as its name suggests ranks sites by their popularity. Keep in mind that these are ranks, so a lower score is better.Source: The Author, compiled from AlexaShopee is very mobile-focused, but the above table only considers the website. To check App Store app ranks for the shopping category, we can use App Annie.Source: The Author, compiled from AppAnnieOn the mobile side, there's no need to look at the competition because Shopee is consistently the number one shopping app in every country listed. In a mobile-first world, this bodes very well. Even on the web side, Shopee wins out except in a few specific regions like LATAM and (barely) Indonesia, which have more local competitors.Of course, traffic doesn't always translate to GMV. But for a shopping app where most people will use the app to buy something, it's a decent proxy. A third party estimates that Shopee accounts for57%of all e-commerce in Southeast Asia. It's Shopee's dominance in the mobile app ranks and market share that make me consider it the Amazon of Southeast Asia.So why would a company with so much potential sell off?After the recent earnings report, some analysts expressed concern that Shopee is branching out into other countries like Poland and Mexico before validating its business model in the current markets. In these countries, Shopee has less of a presence; it's bounced between the 3-5 spots on the Mexico App Store for shopping apps, and between spots 1 and 3 in Poland. Although analysts hate uncertainty - and the CEO's comments that they don't have a concrete measure of success in these earlier stage countries won't help with that - Shopee has a history of entering new countries successfully and I am willing to give management some time to try expanding more. After all, if they're successful, then it could drive even more unexpected growth in the future.Another complaint from analysts was that the basket size (average purchase size) is trending down. While that could also have contributed to the recent selloff, it's hard to complain when the overall sales increased a lot despite a decrease in basket size.The company raised its guidance for e-commerce again in Q3, now guiding for $5.0B-$5.2B in 2021 e-commerce revenue. That's 75%-100% growth in Q4 and about 135% growth for the year. These are much more exciting numbers than the gaming side, although the guidance still implies a slight deceleration in Q4. But compared to Amazon's $340B in 2020 e-commerce sales, Shopee looks like it's just scratched the surface. E-commerce is at only11%penetration in Southeast Asia compared to18.7%in the USA, and Southeast Asia economies are generally growing faster than the USA's.Despite being in a blue skies industry, it's more difficult to value the e-commerce segment because it operates at a loss (whereas the gaming segment is highly profitable). Shopee's success is not guaranteed because it's not clear at this point whether the platform can become profitable while retaining its market share. Stocks like this tend to experience more volatility, which could partially explain the recent selloff.For unprofitable software companies, I like to use the Rule of 40 to assess the business. But it's difficult to apply this rule to a more cyclical e-commerce company with naturally lower margins. Even so, it's worth noting that despite being unprofitable, Sea's Rule of 40 score of 104 is better than most SaaS companies', and also better than e-commerce peers Amazon (21), MercadoLibre (73), and Alibaba (43).To understand Shopee's terminal valuation once it becomes profitable, we can look at industry peers. Amazon is one profitable and slower-growing peer, and it trades at 4x P/S. AWS pushes this number up, but Amazon's high exposure to first-party sales offsets that. Other e-commerce marketplace peers trade at similar valuations: Alibaba at 3x P/S, MercadoLibre at 9x P/S. All of these valuations are basically all-time lows.If Shopee keeps doubling revenue over the next couple of years (which it's easily done every year since 2016), becomes profitable (which scaling up tends to help with), and will have Amazon's P/S multiple in two years, then at 16 P/S today it would trade flat for two years. But if it keeps growing much faster than Amazon over a longer period like a decade, and/or if the overall industry multiples expand to more normal historical levels, then even at 16x P/S this segment has potential upside. On the other hand, if it stops growing or never becomes profitable then investors will be very disappointed at any P/S.Given this wide range of outcomes, each person is going to have their own way of valuing this segment. For me, when I look at Shopee's mobile dominance, relatively small current size, the funding coming in from Garena, and the precedent set by Amazon, Alibaba, and MercadoLibre for the sustainable long-term success of this business model, I am optimistic about this segment's future. I recognize that it's currently an unprofitable and thus risky segment, but I also see the massive potential.So I am happy paying a 16x P/S multiple, which values the e-commerce segment at $83.2B. Some people will call that way too high, and those people will probably never get a chance to invest in this company, for better or for worse.Thus, with just Garena and Shopee, I have Sea being worth $106.7B. Its current market cap is $123.1B. To account for the difference, let's look at the other parts of Sea.FinTech & InvestmentsThe easiest addition to my computed valuation is Sea's $12B cash pile, partially offset by $4B in debt. This adds some nice optionality to the company and ensures that it won't be bankrupt any time soon despite losing money with Shopee. Adding in the $8B cash difference puts my computed valuation at $114.7B, just $8.4B short of the actual valuation.Then there is Sea's FinTech arm, SeaMoney. The main product here is a mobile wallet, which was responsible for $4.6B in payment volume in the last quarter (~$20B over a year). This segment accounted for $132 million in Q3 revenue, up a whopping 818% year over year. This implies a \"take rate\" of 2.9%, which is even better than established FinTech companies like Visa (V). Because of this high take rate, I'm not worried about SeaMoney losing money while it scales.Despite SeaMoney being a small segment, it's now reaching a point where it can be factored into the valuation. Maybe it's only worth a couple of billion, but this is just the start. Five years ago, nobody would have expected that an e-commerce platform accounting for 5% of Sea's sales would today be worth more than the gaming segment. But Sea's management - combined with Garena's ability to fund new segments and drive their viral adoption - made it happen. It's certainly not guaranteed that Sea will have the same success with FinTech, but there is precedent for it.If one day this segment is worth a third or more of Sea (in 2020, FinTech accounted for 36% of MercadoLibre's revenue) then getting it for just 7% of the business today will be well worth it, even if that implies a somewhat high 16x P/S multiple for the segment today. Actually, this multiple is already lower than Visa's, Mastercard's (NYSE:MA), and Affirm's (NASDAQ:AFRM). Realistically, a segment growing at 818% year over year should probably get a higher multiple than these slower-growing companies', but we don't even need to speculate about what a fair multiple is, since we can reach Sea's current valuation by using 16x P/S in my model valuation.One way this segment could grow even more is through the introduction of more products besides the mobile wallet. Sea noted in their recent earnings that they have started \"early initiatives in other digital financial services such as buy now pay later, digital bank, and insurtech.\" These guys sure know how to hop on the latest high growth trend.Finally, there's the investments arm. Sea is investing in early-stage tech companies, especially in Southeast Asia. There's strong precedent for companies like Tencent (which is itself an investor in Sea) and Shopify (NYSE:SHOP) managing successful investment portfolios that ultimately factor meaningfully into their valuation. Right now Sea's investment arm is very early stage, so I don't include it in my valuation model. But it doesn't have to be factored in to justify the current share price. It's just one more area that might be worth a large part of Sea one day.ConclusionLooking at each of Sea's segments, my valuation model indicates that Sea is fairly valued today. However, my model doesn't account for the significant optionality of the newer segments. Just like e-commerce did over the last five years, FinTech (and/or investments) could grow to become a very large part of Sea's business. With the FinTech segment currently growing at 818% year over year, it doesn't take much imagination to see how this happens. Just another year or two of growth at something close to that rate will make the FinTech arm impossible for investors to ignore.This optionality combined general strength in each business has allowed Sea to post an average revenue beat of 7% over the past year. Earnings haven't been as strong, and I expect that to be the main point of contention with my valuation model, as is the case for most unprofitable companies. In particular, I expect some readers will disagree with my valuation of the e-commerce segment. But even if you drop e-commerce all the way down to 5x P/S (a multiple seen today by much slower growing e-commerce companies) that implies 54% downside from today's prices. It's a steep drop for sure, but most companies in today's market would be looking at such a decline if one were to use the most conservative valuation standards possible.Only fast-growing companies like Sea can quickly offset such a decline with revenue growth. As a result, the businesses with the most long-term potential will hardly ever trade at the most conservative valuation possible. And Sea certainly has long-term potential. It's one of the few high-growth companies I own that I could see reaching a trillion-dollar market cap this decade.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":422,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696549311,"gmtCreate":1640740105369,"gmtModify":1640740105451,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696549311","repostId":"1157924593","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157924593","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640738343,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157924593?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-29 08:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157924593","media":"finance.yahoo","summary":"Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally","content":"<p>Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.</p>\n<p>The \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&amp;P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling&nbsp;a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.</p>\n<p><b>‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?</b></p>\n<p>The last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&amp;P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1c54ea712b8fce648fa682efa965a15a\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson</span></p>\n<p>Why do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.</p>\n<p>“It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”</p>\n<p>Investors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.</p>\n<p>Though the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.</p>\n<p>According to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&amp;P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).</p>\n<p><b>January Barometers</b></p>\n<p>Two other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/99e3e7627b845414da42f555bc4db069\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly</span></p>\n<p>“The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”</p>\n<p>And as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.</p>\n<p>“Should the S&amp;P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.</p>\n<p>The biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.</p>\n<p>“Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&amp;P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.</p>\n<p>Though January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.</p>\n<p>“Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”</p>\n<p>In 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8c6b1ff968cfd5507f8c17566398310\" tg-width=\"705\" tg-height=\"470\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>NEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More</span></p>\n<p>“When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.</p>\n<p>The Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout&nbsp;all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are&nbsp;less severe&nbsp;than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries&nbsp;while some remain relatively&nbsp;unaffected.</p>\n<p>Secondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.</p>\n<p>“That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>These 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThese 3 Indicators May Predict How the Stock Market Performs in 2022: Analyst\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-29 08:39 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html><strong>finance.yahoo</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/these-three-indicators-may-predict-how-the-stock-market-performs-in-2022-analyst-201508279.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157924593","content_text":"Christmas may be over, but for investors, the gifts may have only just begun.\nThe \"Santa Claus Rally\" looks to send 2021 off on a high note for the stock market. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) set a record high for the second consecutive day on Tuesday,subsequently falling a bit in light of a small midday tech stock sell-off.\n‘Ho, ho ho’, stocks on the rise?\nThe last five trading days of the year and the first two trading days of the next year together are often the biggest week of the year for the market. The 1.2% average growth in the S&P 500 over the period since 1945 is the largest of any seven-day period.\nA trader wears a Santa hat as he works on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange the day before Christmas in New York December 24, 2015. REUTERS/Lucas Jackson\nWhy do these days perform so well historically?Animal spirits, as the 20th century economist John Maynard Keynes might put it, have a lot to do with the Santa Clause Rally.\n“It's [the result of] sentiment,” said Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research, on the causes of the rally. “Because [investors know that] if the market does well in the month of January, then it usually does well for the full year. But if we find that a lot of money has flowed into the markets, right off the bat, then the indication is that it's likely to be a very good year.”\nInvestors anticipate that the period is coming, and that equity prices are about to rise, so they are more likely to invest money to earn higher returns, Stovall explained.\nThough the sentiments behind the Santa Clause Rally may appear to be begging-the-question, there is nothing mythical about its results.\nAccording to a recent research note published by Stovall, years following a Santa Claus Rally period with a price increase, experienced an S&P 500 growth rate of 10.3%, higher than the average rate of 9.2% (since 1945).\nJanuary Barometers\nTwo other barometers exist for investors eager to predict the outlook for 2022’s market, both of them involving market performance during the month of January, Stovall wrote. The first five days of January are a great indicator for the rest of the month’s performance.\nA screen displays a stock update on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in Manhattan, New York City, U.S., December 28, 2021. REUTERS/Andrew Kelly\n“The first five days offer an early warning signal as to how the market will likely perform during the entire month,” Stovall wrote in the CFRA report. “And it has done so with impressive accuracy, being correct two out of every three years for both up and down signals. What’s more, a positive showing for the equity market during the first five days of January improved the likelihood of an annual price increase by 12.8%, as well as an improvement in the FoA to 82%.”\nAnd as the old Wall Street adage goes, ‘So goes January, so goes the year.’ The third indicator, which Stovall dubbed “the January Barometer,” draws a correlation between the performance of the market in January and the succeeding 11 months.\n“Should the S&P 500 go on to record a positive performance in the entire month of January, it has historically enhanced the possibility of a positive full-year performance, as the average annual price gain rose to 15.9% and the FoA (Frequency of Advance) increased to 87%,” the report noted.\nThe biggest conclusion investors should draw from the barometers is that there is significant enough data to presume a causal relationship between the late December/January market performance and the larger year’s performance, Stovall said.\n“Not all of the year’s price gains were concentrated in the first month of the year, as a rise for the S&P 500 in January was followed by an average 11.3% climb for the remaining 11 months of the year, with the market posting an 11-month FoA 83% of the time,” he wrote in the report.\nThough January’s gains appear to set the standard for the rest of the year by setting investor attitudes and expectations, Stovall stressed that these indicators are not guarantees.\n“Investors should always view history as a great guide, but never gospel,” he said. Past performance “gives a pretty strong hint of what might happen, but certainly no guarantee.”\nIn 2022, the market will likely encounter challenges from the ongoing COVID pandemic as well as high inflation and the Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.\nNEW YORK, USA - DECEMBER 28: A man is getting a Covid-19 test at a Covid-19 testing center next to the Queens Hospital Center as hundreds of residents line up to get Covid-19 test in Queens of New York, United States on December 28, 2021 as Omicron rises around the country. (Photo by Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency via Getty Images)More\n“When you think about some of the headwinds that could upset the track record of these different barometers, should they all be triggered,” Stovall said, adding the next COVID variant should be a top concern.\nThe Omicron variant has been the latest strain of the coronavirus to spread throughout all 50 U.S. states. Though recent research suggests that Omicron cases are less severe than previous strains of the virus, it is highly transmissible and has already had an effect on consumer demand insome industries while some remain relatively unaffected.\nSecondly, the Federal Reserve has made it clear that it intends to raise interest rates in response to high inflation. Many economists expect these rate hikes to begin sometime next year.\n“That's a concern because if the Fed is too aggressive raising rates, that could throw the market into a tailspin,” Stovall said. “Also, historically, we have seen PE multiple contraction in a rising interest rate environment.”","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":329,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696830706,"gmtCreate":1640659037918,"gmtModify":1640659038741,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696830706","repostId":"1142783552","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1142783552","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640647322,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1142783552?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-28 07:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"It’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1142783552","media":"Bloomberg","summary":"(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering ","content":"<p>(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.</p>\n<p>Last week, when the S&amp;P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.</p>\n<p>And it’s not just a one-week phenomenon: NYSE new lows now also outnumber new highs on a six-week moving-average basis. The last time that happened as the S&amp;P 500 hit a one-year high was in July 2015, right before a six-month correction that saw the index lose around 14%.</p>\n<p>“The Fed had months to taper when the economy was red hot and the stock market tape was very broad and healthy,” Ramsey said. “Now, they are finally poised to do so with the economy cooling off a bit and stock market internals looking weaker than an at time during the entire rally from the pandemic lows.”</p>\n<p>The Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus, whipping up volatility as investors fretted over the central bank’s policy path as well as the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant. But strong corporate earnings and some positive Covid-19 news have helped propel stocks higher, with the S&amp;P 500 on Monday notching its 69th all-time high of the year.</p>\n<p>Few things stir agita for traders like comparisons to 1999 crash times. But Ramsey says that his analysis doesn’t mean a correction is imminent. The smoothed-out six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”</p>\n<p>“The trouble is these warnings can persist for several months before the blue chips finally take a hit,” he said.</p>","source":"lsy1612507957220","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>It’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIt’s December 1999 Based on the NYSE Shares Touching New Lows\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-28 07:22 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html><strong>Bloomberg</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.\nLast week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://finance.yahoo.com/news/december-1999-based-nyse-shares-215249905.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1142783552","content_text":"(Bloomberg) -- Amid all the celebration of a rousing year-end in stocks, Doug Ramsey has a sobering observation about a situation below the market’s surface.\nLast week, when the S&P 500 closed at a 52-week high, 334 companies trading on the New York Stock Exchange hit a 52-week low, more than double the amount that marked new one-year highs. That’s happened only three other times in history -- all of them in December 1999, according to Ramsey, who is chief investment officer for Leuthold Group.\nAnd it’s not just a one-week phenomenon: NYSE new lows now also outnumber new highs on a six-week moving-average basis. The last time that happened as the S&P 500 hit a one-year high was in July 2015, right before a six-month correction that saw the index lose around 14%.\n“The Fed had months to taper when the economy was red hot and the stock market tape was very broad and healthy,” Ramsey said. “Now, they are finally poised to do so with the economy cooling off a bit and stock market internals looking weaker than an at time during the entire rally from the pandemic lows.”\nThe Federal Reserve announced earlier this month that it would speed up its withdrawal of economic stimulus, whipping up volatility as investors fretted over the central bank’s policy path as well as the rapidly spreading new coronavirus variant. But strong corporate earnings and some positive Covid-19 news have helped propel stocks higher, with the S&P 500 on Monday notching its 69th all-time high of the year.\nFew things stir agita for traders like comparisons to 1999 crash times. But Ramsey says that his analysis doesn’t mean a correction is imminent. The smoothed-out six-week moving-average condition happened several times throughout 1999 up until March 24, 2000, when it “proved to be the final nail in the coffin.”\n“The trouble is these warnings can persist for several months before the blue chips finally take a hit,” he said.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":185,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693795723,"gmtCreate":1640075457039,"gmtModify":1640075457039,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693795723","repostId":"1107624786","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107624786","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640073090,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1107624786?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 15:51","market":"us","language":"en","title":"CrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107624786","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>CrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.</li>\n <li>Incredibly ability to retain customers and drive growth within its existing customer base are strong signs of a positive future for CrowdStrike.</li>\n <li>A founder-led company taking its point of departure in what the legacy providers weren't capable of.</li>\n <li>Trading 30% down from previous high something it hasn't done since the Covid-19 market crash.</li>\n <li>Q3-22 was yet another impressive quarter with strong top-line growth and positive free cash flow.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22956bf83da56565ef9e9e736d7927a5\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"922\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Eoneren/E+ via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p>CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) is currently trading 30% off its 52-week high at a P/S ratio of 35.9, the cheapest it has been since the end of 2020. Does that indicate it's a bargain, no it doesn't, but quality comes at a price and given a closer look at how management has executed and with the outlook in mind, I believe that CrowdStrike is an appealing opportunity at the current levels. That doesn't take away the fact, that I'd be careful whenever I'm about to invest in a company trading at such extreme valuations as given the P/S example, but sometimes, an exception can be made from my standpoint.</p>\n<p>CrowdStrike offers a range of simple but efficient cybersecurity solutions anchored in the cloud in order to prevent breaches on the customer end. The solutions offered by the company rests on an AI that gets increasingly more intelligent as it identifies and deals with threats. In the words of the company itself, the AI gets smarter as it consumes more data. A few years ago, they managed a trillion 'signals' a week, which has now grown to a trillion a day, meaning the rate of data available is growing significantly.</p>\n<p>As will become evident later on in this article, the company has proven extremely capable of customer retention proving the value of its services and also a strong up-selling ability as given by its dollar-based retention rates.</p>\n<p>The company is co-founded by former Chief Technology Officer at McAfee and current CEO of CrowdStrike, George Kurtz, who recognized the lacking abilities of on-premises legacy players and the gap that allowed for a pure play cybersecurity cloud-based solution. He co-founded the company together with Dmitri Alperovitch who became Chief Technology Officer in CrowdStrike coming from a position of heading up threat research at McAfee. He has since then left his position, with the current CTOMichael Sentonas, also having been a leading executive at McAfee and holding more than 20 years' experience within cybersecurity.</p>\n<p>If we ask ourselves why cybersecurity matters in the 21st century, just take one look at the world's largest container shipping company, A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBY), who according to the Wired magazine, suffered the most devastating cyberattack in history back in 2017, ultimately coming in at an estimatedlossof $300 million. We could add election interference and government sponsored cyber threats on top, suggesting that this is a highly prioritized area for both public and private institutions, giving strong signs of industry growth.</p>\n<p>As far as I can see, there is a lot to like about this company and by the end of this decade I don't think it mattered whether one paid $175 or $225 per share, but whether one owned shares to begin with. I've wanted to initiate a position for a long time but waited for a pullback as other companies were trading more favorably. However, the current pullback allowed for initiating a position on December 13th at $209 per share. A position I intend to expand by dollar cost averaging.</p>\n<p><b>CrowdStrike's Business Model And Industry Position</b></p>\n<p>CrowdStrike has consistently been recognized by Gartner as an EPP (End Point Protection) leader with the most recent publication in 2021. The visual overlook given in the research document isn't immediately free of charge, but the same ranking for 2019 is shown below, to provide a taste of how this industry can be categorized.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/573a46128009538f9c3c494900deb212\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"697\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>One of the reasons it's marked as a leader comes down to completeness and effectiveness of its vision, to provide a customer solution that isn't characterized by high costs, complexity and ineffectiveness. The very issues that the company itself identifies with legacy players.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3ec4d8f5d820dbe401d7ffd02df7f559\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"355\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 8.</span></p>\n<p>CrowdStrike believes their product is apart from the rest by the nature of its cloud solution allowing for data access, giving constant protection, continuous learning and re-use of those learnings within its AI.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>When a customer suffers a breach, that customer is made aware, and the data immediately digested within CrowdStrike's AI brain, known as Falcon and in this instance labelled \"The Threat Graph\". The breach is analyzed, and all other customers known to the cloud receives an update to detect and avoid a similar threat.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>Herein also lies an important observation to the thesis underlying CrowdStrike over time. As the AI becomes smarter it strengthens its resilience towards cyber related threats but also makes it increasingly difficult for new entrants to match the services provided by CrowdStrike. On top is the network effect, suggesting the value proposition strengthens over time, as every new customer gives more value to the software and ecosystem.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/909a2c51271cf6f1f889ee2333b6626a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 12.</span></p>\n<p><b>The Business</b></p>\n<p>CrowdStrike is building the business around a SaaS (subscription as a service) model, something which many legacy players would like to adopt, and which gives management strong forward visibility. Here follows a few stats for CrowdStrike to set the stage and understand its current size and operation.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/412c8775ec1bd442c072ef95d3a5777a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"356\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 6.</span></p>\n<p>As evident, growth is strong across the panel, supported by the vision of a business model promising much less friction for the customer. The company itself has labelled this a low friction go-to market strategy with ease of use when it comes to onboarding. And as you will see in a minute, once you become a customer of CrowdStrike, the chance you leave is slim.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>14.687 subscription customers as of Q3-22 (+74% Y/Y)</li>\n <li>Annual Recurring Revenue $1.51 billion (+67% Y/Y)</li>\n <li>63 of the Fortune 100 as current customers</li>\n <li>14 of the top 20 banks</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8d2d5f146b3e308cc0abf384378bd392\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 28.</span></p>\n<p>Looking at the growth of ARR over the years, it's evident the company is doing something that customers value. Speaking of the customers, here is one of the strongest selling points for why CrowdStrike could be a winner for this decade and within its industry.</p>\n<ul>\n <li><b>Dollar-Based Retention Rate</b>: showing how much revenue the company makes from its existing customer base over time. For the past 13 quarters, the company has exceeded a dollar-based retention rate of 120% suggesting that customers are pleased with the service they are procuring, to the point where they spend more money with CrowdStrike over time. A strong sign of customer satisfaction.</li>\n <li><b>Gross retention</b>: Showing the number of customers the company manages to keep on its books as time passes, with the best possible outcome being 100%, which of course is an unrealistic achievement given some customers come and go, other go out of business etc. Gross retention is at 98% and has been in that ballpark for 14 quarters in a row - extremely impressive.</li>\n</ul>\n<p>In other words, customer stay, and they allocate more spending with CrowdStrike over time, two incredibly strong selling points for why this company should have a bright future, and also why we as potential shareholders consistently have to pay a premium if we want in.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3c454fe97b9f6fee141600816ffa29f3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 30.</span></p>\n<p>A closer look at the customer base, and unsurprisingly, it has been growing massively in recent years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/88973b4df7dcd2644e4c4652e4f79942\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"357\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 18.</span></p>\n<p>With a TTM revenue of $1.28 billion, the company still has a significant runway when considering their estimated total addressable market. We of course need to maintain a sense of skepticism, given these numbers are company estimates, but it does illustrate the opportunities ahead. Given the examples I provided in the beginning of both public and private institutions being affected by cyber threats, then it is fair to say this marketplace will continue to expand throughout this decade. CrowdStrike estimates an 11% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 while currently growing much faster, which should remind us that CrowdStrike's growth will slow down at one point.</p>\n<p>Observing the TAM slide below, for those who we have followed the company for some time, you will have seen the number of services widen, as the company has expanded its platform and focus areas. Something that naturally add additional potential revenue to the pie for each new successful initiative.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/946272438a584bf1aea8ddfd4594024c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 22.</span></p>\n<p>There is some uncertainty to how this marketplace could develop, but CrowdStrike has already addressed my skepticism, suggesting that companies in general still aren't allocating sufficient funds within their IT budgets to deal with the potential cyber threats out there. As with most other things, we probably need to see someone \"fall\" on the playground before the rest begin wearing protective gear. As such, we can decide to view the TAM estimates as both conservative or optimistic. Whenever I consider TAM estimates, I often prefer the conservative understanding of how a market could develop as to not be carried away by how the future could look like. In my own opinion, humans often adopt changes slower than what comes across in headlines. Just take the example of society wide adoption of automated driving, something that has been touted for a long time, yet we remain far away due to legislation in combination with other roadblocks. The strongest indicator for a bright future for CrowdStrike lies within its performance on gross retention and dollar-based retention rates.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9d5fefcda5ca9e722ca3426a0a8f9502\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"358\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 24.</span></p>\n<p><b>Show Me The Money</b></p>\n<p>As a high growth company, management must strike the balance of not over- or underspend on marketing and sales efforts to drive an expansion in revenue. The company reports on these efforts quarterly, and at the&nbsp;most recent quarter, CrowdStrike secured themselves $1.3 dollar in revenue for every dollar spend on sales and marketing efforts, while also securing a 77% performance when it comes to the \"rule of 40\", a typical metric used to gauge the health of a SaaS company. As given by its name, if you exceed 40 (combining growth and profit rates), then the business is in good health. As with any other metric, it shouldn't be allowed to speak on its own, but it does show that CrowdStrike is doing well. Basically, when seeing this metric, it allows one to understand if the company is striking the balance in terms of growing at a sustainable rate. In this case, CrowdStrike is growing immensely while having showed improved profitability in recent years.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d7d272cba74422da924ed37351999ae4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Corporate Overview 2021, p. 34.</span></p>\n<p>There are clear signs of strong operating leverage if one observes the journey above with the gross margin being almost at where management would like in the long term.</p>\n<ul>\n <li>S&amp;M costs has dwindled from 101% of revenue in FY17 to 37% by this quarter</li>\n <li>R&amp;D costs has dwindled from 73% of revenue in FY17 to 18% by this quarter</li>\n <li>G&amp;A costs has dwindled from 30% of revenue in FY17 to 8% by this quarter</li>\n</ul>\n<p>The target operating model (Non-GAAP) set by management shows the following drill down of its profit statement</p>\n<ul>\n <li>Gross Margin (currently at 76%) to continue to rise toward 80%+</li>\n <li>S&amp;M costs to fall towards 30-35%.</li>\n <li>R&amp;D costs to settle between 15-20%.</li>\n <li>G&amp;A costs to settle between 7-9%.</li>\n <li>As a result, Operating margin should rise beyond 20%</li>\n <li>Free cash flow margin of 30%+</li>\n</ul>\n<p>I can't argue with the fact, that management has secured CrowdStrike is moving in the right direction to achieve its target operating model, meaning that I won't try to deny, that CrowdStrike could become a very profitable business.</p>\n<p>In that regard, it's also interesting to observe how the free cash flow has trended, while CrowdStrike currently holds $1.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Cash that can be utilized to secure organic growth or bolt-on acquisitions.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/201ce099da8656661e8197f14d990c80\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>If I were to summarize this section, I'd highlight management's ability to drive continuous improvements within its operating structure, to the point where its target operating model isn't too far away. All of this while securing its \"rule of 40\" number comes in at 77%, quite impressive. Holding more cash than debt on its balance, the company is well padded to meet its future, while still growing immensely.</p>\n<p>The Outlook &amp; Valuation</p>\n<p>Nothing of what I've covered here is hidden to Wall Street, which also means that we must accept a premium price, more on that in a minute.</p>\n<p>According&nbsp;to 29 analysts following CrowdStrike, 19 of those are very bullish on the company, the highest amount and percentage in terms of distribution in the last three years. Their current average price target for the stock comes in at $293 per share, suggesting a 40% upside from the price today. Such targets don't make promises, but it gives an indication, that the stock could be at a relative bargain compared to how it has fared recently.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0b71928d037a3feeb3a532d90a47910f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"108\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p>\n<p>Those same analysts also provide forecasts related to both top- and bottom-line, with the revenue outlook expected to maintain its strong growth. By the end of FY24, the company would (if the price remained stable) still be trading at a P/S of 17.8, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) both trading at around 8 just for comparison. I don't find those growth expectations unrealistic given what I've uncovered already so far, but no one can know for certain how the situation will look like in two years. Should CrowdStrike also manage to achieve the consensus EPS expectations from the same analyst group, then the company would still trade at a P/E of 146 by FY24.</p>\n<p>If I were to try and understand where the current valuation is coming from, then I'd highlight that the company has grown its revenue by 2.400% since FY17 until now (The company went public in June 2019). Growing from a small base is more accommodating, but so far, the company hasn't shown evidence that it is about to slow down.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c3564c72394432b565260261e1b7f951\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The company currently trades at an EV to revenue of 35.7, roughly the same as when the company went public, only difference being it has grown massively since then. If we observe the same picture but measured in percentage growth, we see the massive returns for shareholders. In fact, it is trading slightly lower than during its IPO when measured on EV to revenue, but shareholders have been rewarded richly due to the very strong revenue growth. As such, the growing share price hasn't been driven by an expansion in its multiples, but by the strong operational execution conducted by the company. Again, make no mistake, an EV/Revenue multiple of 35.7 is&nbsp;<b>very high</b>&nbsp;but by far not the highest it has been trading at since its IPO and as evident from its historical performance, also a level that can create shareholder value. In other words, the performance of the stock, is following the fundamentals of the company.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e491308b358f0808edce26c8f5a3af64\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p><b>A Few Thoughts On Risk</b></p>\n<p>Whenever a company trades at such multiples, there is very limited room for failure on especially top-line performance. A slight miss on revenue growth, or communication suggesting unclarity concerning coming quarters, or a guidance that is below analyst consensus estimates, any of those reasons can cause a significant downwards movement in the share price. Whenever that happens, it often requires a series of strong quarters and solid management communication for the street to regain confidence in the company.</p>\n<p>Two companies who have fallen from similarly high levels during 2021 are DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). DocuSign due to weak revenue expectations and Pinterest due to uncertainty concerning the outlook for MAU (Monthly Active User) growth. Both of those companies were trading at above P/S ratios of 30 earlier this year, with CrowdStrike currently trading at DocuSign's peak from earlier this summer. Point being, the situation can change drastically in a very short time frame, and taking the example of Pinterest, management still hasn't managed to calm the investment community as evident by its continuous slip since uncertainty manifested itself. As such, both companies are down more than 30% YTD.</p>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e49c64ea83323eaf94baf50118c8243e\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"450\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p>\n<p>The most common cause for concern, would be competition or that management has misunderstood how the market will develop, resulting in having to adjust expectations downwards. As shown in Gartner's quadrant earlier on in this article, the cybersecurity arena is a competitive one. Some of its characteristics is shifting technology and frequently changing products in an era where digitalization is undergoing rapid change.</p>\n<p>With a market that is still fragmented, a changing competitive landscape could be the result of partnerships, acquisitions, or technological advancements. As mentioned, I see great value in the AI model of CrowdStrike combined with the network effects, but a significant technological advancement can't be predicted but could lay waste to CrowdStrike's future. As investors, it is paramount that we invest with open eyes, accepting that we face risks, especially in the situation of a high growth company still to reach its target operating model.</p>\n<p><b>Conclusion</b></p>\n<p>I'm a long-term investor, willing to hold onto my positions for years, waiting for them to unfold and tell their true story. In the case of CrowdStrike, we are dealing with a company with a hefty price tag no matter the valuation metric put to use, but also a company where the fundamentals have moved up and to the right at a blazing pace. Immense growth, strong development in its operating model and no signs of slowing down while having asserted its place in the cybersecurity industry combined with great network effects build into its service offering. CrowdStrike has what I look for in an industry winner, and I've initiated a position earlier in December, a position I plan on expanding as time goes by. I find that the recent pull-back offers some cushion in terms of downside pricing risks, but also want to underline that it still trades at very high multiples. Given my appetite for risk and the fact that similar high-flying growth companies have been put into the dust during 2021, I initiate a small position of 1-2% of my portfolio, with the willingness to grow it via dollar cost averaging. I do however believe, that when I look back at my investment in several years from now, that this company could be a market beater and that it mattered more that I held shares in the company than whether I initiated my position at $175 or $225 a share. Impressive gross retention of customers and a very impressive dollar-based retention rate tell me, that this company has managed to create a platform of services, which customers value highly and on top comes management continuous efforts towards expanding CrowdStrike's capabilities allowing for a growing total addressable market.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>CrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCrowdStrike: Buying The Dip, Here Is Why\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-12-21 15:51 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476074-crowdstrike-buying-the-dip-here-is-why><strong>Seeking Alpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nCrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.\nIncredibly ability to retain customers and ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476074-crowdstrike-buying-the-dip-here-is-why\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRWD":"CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4476074-crowdstrike-buying-the-dip-here-is-why","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1107624786","content_text":"Summary\n\nCrowdStrike is an expensive stock for a reason and the recent pull-back offers an opportune moment to initiate a position in this industry winner.\nIncredibly ability to retain customers and drive growth within its existing customer base are strong signs of a positive future for CrowdStrike.\nA founder-led company taking its point of departure in what the legacy providers weren't capable of.\nTrading 30% down from previous high something it hasn't done since the Covid-19 market crash.\nQ3-22 was yet another impressive quarter with strong top-line growth and positive free cash flow.\n\nEoneren/E+ via Getty Images\nCrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (CRWD) is currently trading 30% off its 52-week high at a P/S ratio of 35.9, the cheapest it has been since the end of 2020. Does that indicate it's a bargain, no it doesn't, but quality comes at a price and given a closer look at how management has executed and with the outlook in mind, I believe that CrowdStrike is an appealing opportunity at the current levels. That doesn't take away the fact, that I'd be careful whenever I'm about to invest in a company trading at such extreme valuations as given the P/S example, but sometimes, an exception can be made from my standpoint.\nCrowdStrike offers a range of simple but efficient cybersecurity solutions anchored in the cloud in order to prevent breaches on the customer end. The solutions offered by the company rests on an AI that gets increasingly more intelligent as it identifies and deals with threats. In the words of the company itself, the AI gets smarter as it consumes more data. A few years ago, they managed a trillion 'signals' a week, which has now grown to a trillion a day, meaning the rate of data available is growing significantly.\nAs will become evident later on in this article, the company has proven extremely capable of customer retention proving the value of its services and also a strong up-selling ability as given by its dollar-based retention rates.\nThe company is co-founded by former Chief Technology Officer at McAfee and current CEO of CrowdStrike, George Kurtz, who recognized the lacking abilities of on-premises legacy players and the gap that allowed for a pure play cybersecurity cloud-based solution. He co-founded the company together with Dmitri Alperovitch who became Chief Technology Officer in CrowdStrike coming from a position of heading up threat research at McAfee. He has since then left his position, with the current CTOMichael Sentonas, also having been a leading executive at McAfee and holding more than 20 years' experience within cybersecurity.\nIf we ask ourselves why cybersecurity matters in the 21st century, just take one look at the world's largest container shipping company, A.P. Møller-Mærsk A/S (OTCPK:AMKBY), who according to the Wired magazine, suffered the most devastating cyberattack in history back in 2017, ultimately coming in at an estimatedlossof $300 million. We could add election interference and government sponsored cyber threats on top, suggesting that this is a highly prioritized area for both public and private institutions, giving strong signs of industry growth.\nAs far as I can see, there is a lot to like about this company and by the end of this decade I don't think it mattered whether one paid $175 or $225 per share, but whether one owned shares to begin with. I've wanted to initiate a position for a long time but waited for a pullback as other companies were trading more favorably. However, the current pullback allowed for initiating a position on December 13th at $209 per share. A position I intend to expand by dollar cost averaging.\nCrowdStrike's Business Model And Industry Position\nCrowdStrike has consistently been recognized by Gartner as an EPP (End Point Protection) leader with the most recent publication in 2021. The visual overlook given in the research document isn't immediately free of charge, but the same ranking for 2019 is shown below, to provide a taste of how this industry can be categorized.\n\nOne of the reasons it's marked as a leader comes down to completeness and effectiveness of its vision, to provide a customer solution that isn't characterized by high costs, complexity and ineffectiveness. The very issues that the company itself identifies with legacy players.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 8.\nCrowdStrike believes their product is apart from the rest by the nature of its cloud solution allowing for data access, giving constant protection, continuous learning and re-use of those learnings within its AI.\n\nWhen a customer suffers a breach, that customer is made aware, and the data immediately digested within CrowdStrike's AI brain, known as Falcon and in this instance labelled \"The Threat Graph\". The breach is analyzed, and all other customers known to the cloud receives an update to detect and avoid a similar threat.\n\nHerein also lies an important observation to the thesis underlying CrowdStrike over time. As the AI becomes smarter it strengthens its resilience towards cyber related threats but also makes it increasingly difficult for new entrants to match the services provided by CrowdStrike. On top is the network effect, suggesting the value proposition strengthens over time, as every new customer gives more value to the software and ecosystem.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 12.\nThe Business\nCrowdStrike is building the business around a SaaS (subscription as a service) model, something which many legacy players would like to adopt, and which gives management strong forward visibility. Here follows a few stats for CrowdStrike to set the stage and understand its current size and operation.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 6.\nAs evident, growth is strong across the panel, supported by the vision of a business model promising much less friction for the customer. The company itself has labelled this a low friction go-to market strategy with ease of use when it comes to onboarding. And as you will see in a minute, once you become a customer of CrowdStrike, the chance you leave is slim.\n\n14.687 subscription customers as of Q3-22 (+74% Y/Y)\nAnnual Recurring Revenue $1.51 billion (+67% Y/Y)\n63 of the Fortune 100 as current customers\n14 of the top 20 banks\n\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 28.\nLooking at the growth of ARR over the years, it's evident the company is doing something that customers value. Speaking of the customers, here is one of the strongest selling points for why CrowdStrike could be a winner for this decade and within its industry.\n\nDollar-Based Retention Rate: showing how much revenue the company makes from its existing customer base over time. For the past 13 quarters, the company has exceeded a dollar-based retention rate of 120% suggesting that customers are pleased with the service they are procuring, to the point where they spend more money with CrowdStrike over time. A strong sign of customer satisfaction.\nGross retention: Showing the number of customers the company manages to keep on its books as time passes, with the best possible outcome being 100%, which of course is an unrealistic achievement given some customers come and go, other go out of business etc. Gross retention is at 98% and has been in that ballpark for 14 quarters in a row - extremely impressive.\n\nIn other words, customer stay, and they allocate more spending with CrowdStrike over time, two incredibly strong selling points for why this company should have a bright future, and also why we as potential shareholders consistently have to pay a premium if we want in.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 30.\nA closer look at the customer base, and unsurprisingly, it has been growing massively in recent years.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 18.\nWith a TTM revenue of $1.28 billion, the company still has a significant runway when considering their estimated total addressable market. We of course need to maintain a sense of skepticism, given these numbers are company estimates, but it does illustrate the opportunities ahead. Given the examples I provided in the beginning of both public and private institutions being affected by cyber threats, then it is fair to say this marketplace will continue to expand throughout this decade. CrowdStrike estimates an 11% CAGR from 2022 to 2024 while currently growing much faster, which should remind us that CrowdStrike's growth will slow down at one point.\nObserving the TAM slide below, for those who we have followed the company for some time, you will have seen the number of services widen, as the company has expanded its platform and focus areas. Something that naturally add additional potential revenue to the pie for each new successful initiative.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 22.\nThere is some uncertainty to how this marketplace could develop, but CrowdStrike has already addressed my skepticism, suggesting that companies in general still aren't allocating sufficient funds within their IT budgets to deal with the potential cyber threats out there. As with most other things, we probably need to see someone \"fall\" on the playground before the rest begin wearing protective gear. As such, we can decide to view the TAM estimates as both conservative or optimistic. Whenever I consider TAM estimates, I often prefer the conservative understanding of how a market could develop as to not be carried away by how the future could look like. In my own opinion, humans often adopt changes slower than what comes across in headlines. Just take the example of society wide adoption of automated driving, something that has been touted for a long time, yet we remain far away due to legislation in combination with other roadblocks. The strongest indicator for a bright future for CrowdStrike lies within its performance on gross retention and dollar-based retention rates.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 24.\nShow Me The Money\nAs a high growth company, management must strike the balance of not over- or underspend on marketing and sales efforts to drive an expansion in revenue. The company reports on these efforts quarterly, and at the most recent quarter, CrowdStrike secured themselves $1.3 dollar in revenue for every dollar spend on sales and marketing efforts, while also securing a 77% performance when it comes to the \"rule of 40\", a typical metric used to gauge the health of a SaaS company. As given by its name, if you exceed 40 (combining growth and profit rates), then the business is in good health. As with any other metric, it shouldn't be allowed to speak on its own, but it does show that CrowdStrike is doing well. Basically, when seeing this metric, it allows one to understand if the company is striking the balance in terms of growing at a sustainable rate. In this case, CrowdStrike is growing immensely while having showed improved profitability in recent years.\nCorporate Overview 2021, p. 34.\nThere are clear signs of strong operating leverage if one observes the journey above with the gross margin being almost at where management would like in the long term.\n\nS&M costs has dwindled from 101% of revenue in FY17 to 37% by this quarter\nR&D costs has dwindled from 73% of revenue in FY17 to 18% by this quarter\nG&A costs has dwindled from 30% of revenue in FY17 to 8% by this quarter\n\nThe target operating model (Non-GAAP) set by management shows the following drill down of its profit statement\n\nGross Margin (currently at 76%) to continue to rise toward 80%+\nS&M costs to fall towards 30-35%.\nR&D costs to settle between 15-20%.\nG&A costs to settle between 7-9%.\nAs a result, Operating margin should rise beyond 20%\nFree cash flow margin of 30%+\n\nI can't argue with the fact, that management has secured CrowdStrike is moving in the right direction to achieve its target operating model, meaning that I won't try to deny, that CrowdStrike could become a very profitable business.\nIn that regard, it's also interesting to observe how the free cash flow has trended, while CrowdStrike currently holds $1.9 billion of cash and cash equivalents on its balance sheet. Cash that can be utilized to secure organic growth or bolt-on acquisitions.\nData by YCharts\nIf I were to summarize this section, I'd highlight management's ability to drive continuous improvements within its operating structure, to the point where its target operating model isn't too far away. All of this while securing its \"rule of 40\" number comes in at 77%, quite impressive. Holding more cash than debt on its balance, the company is well padded to meet its future, while still growing immensely.\nThe Outlook & Valuation\nNothing of what I've covered here is hidden to Wall Street, which also means that we must accept a premium price, more on that in a minute.\nAccording to 29 analysts following CrowdStrike, 19 of those are very bullish on the company, the highest amount and percentage in terms of distribution in the last three years. Their current average price target for the stock comes in at $293 per share, suggesting a 40% upside from the price today. Such targets don't make promises, but it gives an indication, that the stock could be at a relative bargain compared to how it has fared recently.\n\nThose same analysts also provide forecasts related to both top- and bottom-line, with the revenue outlook expected to maintain its strong growth. By the end of FY24, the company would (if the price remained stable) still be trading at a P/S of 17.8, with Apple Inc. (AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (GOOGL) both trading at around 8 just for comparison. I don't find those growth expectations unrealistic given what I've uncovered already so far, but no one can know for certain how the situation will look like in two years. Should CrowdStrike also manage to achieve the consensus EPS expectations from the same analyst group, then the company would still trade at a P/E of 146 by FY24.\nIf I were to try and understand where the current valuation is coming from, then I'd highlight that the company has grown its revenue by 2.400% since FY17 until now (The company went public in June 2019). Growing from a small base is more accommodating, but so far, the company hasn't shown evidence that it is about to slow down.\nData by YCharts\nThe company currently trades at an EV to revenue of 35.7, roughly the same as when the company went public, only difference being it has grown massively since then. If we observe the same picture but measured in percentage growth, we see the massive returns for shareholders. In fact, it is trading slightly lower than during its IPO when measured on EV to revenue, but shareholders have been rewarded richly due to the very strong revenue growth. As such, the growing share price hasn't been driven by an expansion in its multiples, but by the strong operational execution conducted by the company. Again, make no mistake, an EV/Revenue multiple of 35.7 is very high but by far not the highest it has been trading at since its IPO and as evident from its historical performance, also a level that can create shareholder value. In other words, the performance of the stock, is following the fundamentals of the company.\nData by YCharts\nA Few Thoughts On Risk\nWhenever a company trades at such multiples, there is very limited room for failure on especially top-line performance. A slight miss on revenue growth, or communication suggesting unclarity concerning coming quarters, or a guidance that is below analyst consensus estimates, any of those reasons can cause a significant downwards movement in the share price. Whenever that happens, it often requires a series of strong quarters and solid management communication for the street to regain confidence in the company.\nTwo companies who have fallen from similarly high levels during 2021 are DocuSign Inc. (DOCU) and Pinterest Inc. (PINS). DocuSign due to weak revenue expectations and Pinterest due to uncertainty concerning the outlook for MAU (Monthly Active User) growth. Both of those companies were trading at above P/S ratios of 30 earlier this year, with CrowdStrike currently trading at DocuSign's peak from earlier this summer. Point being, the situation can change drastically in a very short time frame, and taking the example of Pinterest, management still hasn't managed to calm the investment community as evident by its continuous slip since uncertainty manifested itself. As such, both companies are down more than 30% YTD.\nData by YCharts\nThe most common cause for concern, would be competition or that management has misunderstood how the market will develop, resulting in having to adjust expectations downwards. As shown in Gartner's quadrant earlier on in this article, the cybersecurity arena is a competitive one. Some of its characteristics is shifting technology and frequently changing products in an era where digitalization is undergoing rapid change.\nWith a market that is still fragmented, a changing competitive landscape could be the result of partnerships, acquisitions, or technological advancements. As mentioned, I see great value in the AI model of CrowdStrike combined with the network effects, but a significant technological advancement can't be predicted but could lay waste to CrowdStrike's future. As investors, it is paramount that we invest with open eyes, accepting that we face risks, especially in the situation of a high growth company still to reach its target operating model.\nConclusion\nI'm a long-term investor, willing to hold onto my positions for years, waiting for them to unfold and tell their true story. In the case of CrowdStrike, we are dealing with a company with a hefty price tag no matter the valuation metric put to use, but also a company where the fundamentals have moved up and to the right at a blazing pace. Immense growth, strong development in its operating model and no signs of slowing down while having asserted its place in the cybersecurity industry combined with great network effects build into its service offering. CrowdStrike has what I look for in an industry winner, and I've initiated a position earlier in December, a position I plan on expanding as time goes by. I find that the recent pull-back offers some cushion in terms of downside pricing risks, but also want to underline that it still trades at very high multiples. Given my appetite for risk and the fact that similar high-flying growth companies have been put into the dust during 2021, I initiate a small position of 1-2% of my portfolio, with the willingness to grow it via dollar cost averaging. I do however believe, that when I look back at my investment in several years from now, that this company could be a market beater and that it mattered more that I held shares in the company than whether I initiated my position at $175 or $225 a share. Impressive gross retention of customers and a very impressive dollar-based retention rate tell me, that this company has managed to create a platform of services, which customers value highly and on top comes management continuous efforts towards expanding CrowdStrike's capabilities allowing for a growing total addressable market.","news_type":1},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630749732,"gmtCreate":1643066215028,"gmtModify":1643066215119,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted","listText":"Noted","text":"Noted","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630749732","repostId":"1135838595","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":494,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":630425851,"gmtCreate":1643026865792,"gmtModify":1643026865919,"author":{"id":"3572841098185467","authorId":"3572841098185467","name":"Chloe26","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3572841098185467","authorIdStr":"3572841098185467"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","listText":"[Smile]&nbsp;","text":"[Smile]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/630425851","repostId":"2205802723","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}