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5ky
2021-02-24
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Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>
5ky
2021-02-23
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Apple Stock This Week: Losing Steam<blockquote>本周苹果股票：失去动力</blockquote>
5ky
2021-02-13
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抱歉，原内容已删除
5ky
2021-02-13
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抱歉，原内容已删除
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18:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107213324","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treas","content":"<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 18:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107213324","content_text":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.RAYMOND JAMES“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369537148,"gmtCreate":1614057113684,"gmtModify":1634551360798,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573292049765150","authorIdStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369537148","repostId":"1145339995","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1145339995","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614048887,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1145339995?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 10:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Apple Stock This Week: Losing Steam<blockquote>本周苹果股票：失去动力</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1145339995","media":"TheStreet","summary":"Apple stock has been quietly underperforming its key benchmarks in 2021. The problem does not seem t","content":"<p>Apple stock has been quietly underperforming its key benchmarks in 2021. The problem does not seem to be with business fundamentals, but with market sentiment instead.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，苹果股票的表现一直低于其关键基准。问题似乎不在于商业基本面，而在于市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Quietly, Apple continues to underperform in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>悄悄地，苹果在2021年继续表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past four trading days (last Monday was President’s Day and the stock market was closed), shares of the Cupertino company declined about 4%. None of the main peer groups, including the consumer discretionary and tech sectors, performed this poorly.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的四个交易日（上周一是总统日，股市休市）中，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价下跌了约 4%。包括非必需消费品和科技行业在内的所有主要同行群体的表现都不差。</blockquote></p><p> See chart below – Apple is the blue line.</p><p><blockquote>见下图——苹果是蓝线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a1b3fafec7dc8155390e2d4094da04\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The full-year picture has not looked much more promising, at least so far. Apple shares rallied ahead of its fiscal first quarter earnings day, which was covered in detailed by the Apple Maven a few weeks ago. Towards the end of January, Apple had gained more than its key benchmarks year-to-date. See graph below.</p><p><blockquote>至少到目前为止，全年的情况看起来并没有更有希望。苹果股价在第一财季财报日之前上涨，苹果专家几周前对此进行了详细报道。截至 1 月底，苹果今年迄今为止的涨幅已超过其主要基准。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> However,the “sell the news” pullback that I warned about on January 28 took place. From last month’s peak, Apple has already dipped 9%. Shares are on the verge of entering correction territory once again.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我在 1 月 28 日警告过的 “抛售新闻 ”回调还是发生了。与上个月的峰值相比，苹果已经下降了 9%。股价即将再次进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbf13d3b9fd7cebae67624cd78f9f09\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not about the fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与基本面无关</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it hard to believe that any of the recent weakness in Apple stock has anything to do with fundamentals.Think of the company’s earnings results, for example.</p><p><blockquote>我很难相信苹果股市最近的疲软与基本面有任何关系。例如，想想公司的盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone staged an impressive comeback, with revenues climbing 17% during the holiday period after a disappointing fiscal fourth quarter. China also showed signs of life at last, as sales increased a whopping 57% in the region. Margins expanded on the back of gains of scale and a more favorable product mix. The company’s balance sheet is flush with cash.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 令人印象深刻地卷土重来，在经历了令人失望的第四财季后，假日期间收入攀升了 17%。中国也终于出现了生机，该地区的销售额增长了57%。由于规模的增长和更有利的产品组合，利润率有所扩大。公司的资产负债表上现金充裕。</blockquote></p><p> What’s not to like about Apple’s business?</p><p><blockquote>苹果的生意有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A sentiment problem</b></p><p><blockquote><b>感情问题</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Apple shares so far this year, in my view, are two.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今年到目前为止，苹果股票存在两个问题。</blockquote></p><p> First, the stock seems to have caught too strong of a tailwind in the past couple of months:once from the Apple Car buzz, in late December, and again as investors anticipated a blowout holiday quarter in 2020. Therefore, it was reasonable to see shares adjust to what may be a more reasonable price below the $130 mark.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该股在过去几个月中似乎受到了太大的推动：一次是 12 月下旬的苹果汽车热潮，另一次是投资者预计 2020 年假日季度将出现井喷。因此，看到股价调整至 130 美元以下可能更合理的价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Second, 2021 has been a year to bet on recovery stocks, not high-quality growth names like Apple. Notice below how small cap and high-beta stocks (tickers IWM and SPHB) have lavishly outperformed the high-quality ETF and the Nasdaq (tickers QUAL and QQQ) so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>其次，2021 年是押注复苏股的一年，而不是像苹果这样的优质成长型股票。请注意今年迄今为止，小盘股和高贝塔值股票（股票代码 IWM 和 SPHB）的表现如何远远优于优质 ETF 和纳斯达克（股票代码 QUAL 和 QQQ）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdbaae21b1a60bfe8ced185756760c51\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"647\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett effect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特效应</b></blockquote></p><p> The most recent event that helped to push Apple shares lower was Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of its portfolio holdings, as of the end of 2020. Warren Buffett’s company sold about $7.4 billion worth of Apple shares in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近导致苹果股价下跌的事件是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司披露了截至 2020 年底的投资组合持股情况。沃伦-巴菲特的公司在上一季度出售了价值约 74 亿美元的苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p> As I explained, the move seemed to be a position trim rather than a bearish statement. I do not believe that investors should be concerned about Apple losing the Buffett seal of approval, especially considering the still massive 43% allocation of Berkshire’s portfolio to the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我所解释的，此举似乎是一次头寸削减，而不是一份看跌声明。我认为投资者不应该担心苹果会失去巴菲特的认可，尤其是考虑到伯克希尔投资组合中仍有 43% 的比例分配给这家库比蒂诺公司。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, the market is the market, and it chose to punish Apple stock even further, following the release of Berkshire’s most recent 13-F filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场就是市场，在伯克希尔最新的 13-F 文件公布后，市场选择进一步惩罚苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Apple Stock This Week: Losing Steam<blockquote>本周苹果股票：失去动力</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nApple Stock This Week: Losing Steam<blockquote>本周苹果股票：失去动力</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 10:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Apple stock has been quietly underperforming its key benchmarks in 2021. The problem does not seem to be with business fundamentals, but with market sentiment instead.</p><p><blockquote>2021 年，苹果股票的表现一直低于其关键基准。问题似乎不在于商业基本面，而在于市场情绪。</blockquote></p><p> Quietly, Apple continues to underperform in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>悄悄地，苹果在2021年继续表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Over the past four trading days (last Monday was President’s Day and the stock market was closed), shares of the Cupertino company declined about 4%. None of the main peer groups, including the consumer discretionary and tech sectors, performed this poorly.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的四个交易日（上周一是总统日，股市休市）中，这家库比蒂诺公司的股价下跌了约 4%。包括非必需消费品和科技行业在内的所有主要同行群体的表现都不差。</blockquote></p><p> See chart below – Apple is the blue line.</p><p><blockquote>见下图——苹果是蓝线。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/33a1b3fafec7dc8155390e2d4094da04\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"649\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The full-year picture has not looked much more promising, at least so far. Apple shares rallied ahead of its fiscal first quarter earnings day, which was covered in detailed by the Apple Maven a few weeks ago. Towards the end of January, Apple had gained more than its key benchmarks year-to-date. See graph below.</p><p><blockquote>至少到目前为止，全年的情况看起来并没有更有希望。苹果股价在第一财季财报日之前上涨，苹果专家几周前对此进行了详细报道。截至 1 月底，苹果今年迄今为止的涨幅已超过其主要基准。见下图。</blockquote></p><p> However,the “sell the news” pullback that I warned about on January 28 took place. From last month’s peak, Apple has already dipped 9%. Shares are on the verge of entering correction territory once again.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我在 1 月 28 日警告过的 “抛售新闻 ”回调还是发生了。与上个月的峰值相比，苹果已经下降了 9%。股价即将再次进入回调区域。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5cbf13d3b9fd7cebae67624cd78f9f09\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"630\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Not about the fundamentals</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与基本面无关</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it hard to believe that any of the recent weakness in Apple stock has anything to do with fundamentals.Think of the company’s earnings results, for example.</p><p><blockquote>我很难相信苹果股市最近的疲软与基本面有任何关系。例如，想想公司的盈利结果。</blockquote></p><p> The iPhone staged an impressive comeback, with revenues climbing 17% during the holiday period after a disappointing fiscal fourth quarter. China also showed signs of life at last, as sales increased a whopping 57% in the region. Margins expanded on the back of gains of scale and a more favorable product mix. The company’s balance sheet is flush with cash.</p><p><blockquote>iPhone 令人印象深刻地卷土重来，在经历了令人失望的第四财季后，假日期间收入攀升了 17%。中国也终于出现了生机，该地区的销售额增长了57%。由于规模的增长和更有利的产品组合，利润率有所扩大。公司的资产负债表上现金充裕。</blockquote></p><p> What’s not to like about Apple’s business?</p><p><blockquote>苹果的生意有什么不喜欢的？</blockquote></p><p> <b>A sentiment problem</b></p><p><blockquote><b>感情问题</b></blockquote></p><p> The problem with Apple shares so far this year, in my view, are two.</p><p><blockquote>在我看来，今年到目前为止，苹果股票存在两个问题。</blockquote></p><p> First, the stock seems to have caught too strong of a tailwind in the past couple of months:once from the Apple Car buzz, in late December, and again as investors anticipated a blowout holiday quarter in 2020. Therefore, it was reasonable to see shares adjust to what may be a more reasonable price below the $130 mark.</p><p><blockquote>首先，该股在过去几个月中似乎受到了太大的推动：一次是 12 月下旬的苹果汽车热潮，另一次是投资者预计 2020 年假日季度将出现井喷。因此，看到股价调整至 130 美元以下可能更合理的价格是合理的。</blockquote></p><p> Second, 2021 has been a year to bet on recovery stocks, not high-quality growth names like Apple. Notice below how small cap and high-beta stocks (tickers IWM and SPHB) have lavishly outperformed the high-quality ETF and the Nasdaq (tickers QUAL and QQQ) so far this year.</p><p><blockquote>其次，2021 年是押注复苏股的一年，而不是像苹果这样的优质成长型股票。请注意今年迄今为止，小盘股和高贝塔值股票（股票代码 IWM 和 SPHB）的表现如何远远优于优质 ETF 和纳斯达克（股票代码 QUAL 和 QQQ）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdbaae21b1a60bfe8ced185756760c51\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"647\"><span>Stock Rover</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>股票漫游者</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Buffett effect</b></p><p><blockquote><b>巴菲特效应</b></blockquote></p><p> The most recent event that helped to push Apple shares lower was Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of its portfolio holdings, as of the end of 2020. Warren Buffett’s company sold about $7.4 billion worth of Apple shares in the last quarter.</p><p><blockquote>最近导致苹果股价下跌的事件是伯克希尔-哈撒韦公司披露了截至 2020 年底的投资组合持股情况。沃伦-巴菲特的公司在上一季度出售了价值约 74 亿美元的苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p> As I explained, the move seemed to be a position trim rather than a bearish statement. I do not believe that investors should be concerned about Apple losing the Buffett seal of approval, especially considering the still massive 43% allocation of Berkshire’s portfolio to the Cupertino company.</p><p><blockquote>正如我所解释的，此举似乎是一次头寸削减，而不是一份看跌声明。我认为投资者不应该担心苹果会失去巴菲特的认可，尤其是考虑到伯克希尔投资组合中仍有 43% 的比例分配给这家库比蒂诺公司。</blockquote></p><p> Yet, the market is the market, and it chose to punish Apple stock even further, following the release of Berkshire’s most recent 13-F filing.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场就是市场，在伯克希尔最新的 13-F 文件公布后，市场选择进一步惩罚苹果股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-this-week-losing-steam\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/news/apple-stock-this-week-losing-steam","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1145339995","content_text":"Apple stock has been quietly underperforming its key benchmarks in 2021. The problem does not seem to be with business fundamentals, but with market sentiment instead.\nQuietly, Apple continues to underperform in 2021.\nOver the past four trading days (last Monday was President’s Day and the stock market was closed), shares of the Cupertino company declined about 4%. None of the main peer groups, including the consumer discretionary and tech sectors, performed this poorly.\nSee chart below – Apple is the blue line.\nStock Rover\nThe full-year picture has not looked much more promising, at least so far. Apple shares rallied ahead of its fiscal first quarter earnings day, which was covered in detailed by the Apple Maven a few weeks ago. Towards the end of January, Apple had gained more than its key benchmarks year-to-date. See graph below.\nHowever,the “sell the news” pullback that I warned about on January 28 took place. From last month’s peak, Apple has already dipped 9%. Shares are on the verge of entering correction territory once again.\nStock Rover\nNot about the fundamentals\nI find it hard to believe that any of the recent weakness in Apple stock has anything to do with fundamentals.Think of the company’s earnings results, for example.\nThe iPhone staged an impressive comeback, with revenues climbing 17% during the holiday period after a disappointing fiscal fourth quarter. China also showed signs of life at last, as sales increased a whopping 57% in the region. Margins expanded on the back of gains of scale and a more favorable product mix. The company’s balance sheet is flush with cash.\nWhat’s not to like about Apple’s business?\nA sentiment problem\nThe problem with Apple shares so far this year, in my view, are two.\nFirst, the stock seems to have caught too strong of a tailwind in the past couple of months:once from the Apple Car buzz, in late December, and again as investors anticipated a blowout holiday quarter in 2020. Therefore, it was reasonable to see shares adjust to what may be a more reasonable price below the $130 mark.\nSecond, 2021 has been a year to bet on recovery stocks, not high-quality growth names like Apple. Notice below how small cap and high-beta stocks (tickers IWM and SPHB) have lavishly outperformed the high-quality ETF and the Nasdaq (tickers QUAL and QQQ) so far this year.\nStock Rover\nThe Buffett effect\nThe most recent event that helped to push Apple shares lower was Berkshire Hathaway’s disclosure of its portfolio holdings, as of the end of 2020. Warren Buffett’s company sold about $7.4 billion worth of Apple shares in the last quarter.\nAs I explained, the move seemed to be a position trim rather than a bearish statement. I do not believe that investors should be concerned about Apple losing the Buffett seal of approval, especially considering the still massive 43% allocation of Berkshire’s portfolio to the Cupertino company.\nYet, the market is the market, and it chose to punish Apple stock even further, following the release of Berkshire’s most recent 13-F filing.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386261643,"gmtCreate":1613185803282,"gmtModify":1634554214863,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573292049765150","authorIdStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386261643","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386261169,"gmtCreate":1613185756251,"gmtModify":1634554215106,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573292049765150","authorIdStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386261169","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":363110468,"gmtCreate":1614100417154,"gmtModify":1634551162098,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573292049765150","idStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/363110468","repostId":"1107213324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107213324","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1614076514,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107213324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-02-23 18:35","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107213324","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treas","content":"<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan the bull market in stocks survive rising inflation, bond yields? Here’s what history says<blockquote>股市牛市能否在通胀和债券收益率上升的情况下幸存下来？历史是这样说的</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-02-23 18:35</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond James</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯：科技、非必需消费品和周期性行业历来表现优于大盘</blockquote></p><p>Rising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率上升令股市不寒而栗，尤其是对于高涨的科技相关股票而言。但雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）认为，历史表明，当收益率 “出于正确的原因 ”上升时，科技股和对周期性敏感的股票往往会蓬勃发展。</blockquote></p><p>The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德-詹姆斯（Raymond James）私人客户集团首席投资官拉里-亚当（Larry Adam）在周末的一份报告中说，正确的原因是 “经济增长的改善和通胀的'健康'上升”。这些原因导致 10 年期国债收益率略低于 1.4%，约为一年来的最高水平。收益率也出现了六周来的最大单周涨幅。</blockquote></p><p>Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.</p><p><blockquote>Adam 重点介绍了下图，该图表细分了标普500 11 个行业的平均年化表现，以及在利率上升的环境下每个行业跑赢标普500的时间百分比。</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/79c934a97bed5bf56c97af1767cd874e\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>RAYMOND JAMES</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>雷蒙德·詹姆斯</span></p></blockquote></p><p>“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.</p><p><blockquote>“亚当指出：”自 1990 年以来，在利率上升的环境下，周期性较强的行业表现优异。“科技、非必需消费品和工业部门--我们的三个首选行业--的平均年化跑赢标普500和跑赢标普500的时间百分比最大”，而公用事业、房地产和必需消费品等股息收益率较高的行业往往表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p>Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.</p><p><blockquote>周一股市表现好坏参半，纳斯达克 100 指数下跌 2.6%，纳斯达克综合指数下跌 2.5%，跌幅最大。两者都倾向于大盘、科技型股票。</blockquote></p><p>The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯工业平均指数上涨，而标普500指数下跌0.8%。</blockquote></p><p>The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升在很大程度上归咎于人们对政府支出增加和超宽松货币政策可能导致通胀飙升的预期。分析师表示，对美联储可能比预期更早开始撤回部分流动性的担忧被认为有助于扰乱股市。</blockquote></p><p>But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.</p><p><blockquote>但亚当认为，通货膨胀不仅不太可能 “短路 ”反弹，而且对股市多头来说可能是一个受欢迎的发展。</blockquote></p><p>“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“他写道：”在分析标普500在不同核心通胀水平下的表现时，在核心通胀率在 1-4% 之间的环境下，股市的表现高于平均水平。</blockquote></p><p>Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.</p><p><blockquote>亚当说，当通胀水平与经济活动改善同时出现时，通常被认为是健康的。原因是公司拥有定价权，使他们能够提高价格，同时还能从生产率提高中获益，这有助于促进盈利增长。</blockquote></p><p>Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).</p><p><blockquote>雷蒙德·詹姆斯预计核心通胀率将在 2% 左右。Adam表示，当核心通胀率在1%至3%之间时，科技（+6.8%）、医疗保健（+2.3%）和非必需消费品行业（+2%）相对于标普500的平均同比表现最为强劲。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","NDX":"纳斯达克100指数"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/rising-bond-yields-mean-these-stock-market-sectors-have-the-most-to-gain-or-lose-11614014529?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107213324","content_text":"Tech, consumer discretionary and cyclical sectors historically outperform: Raymond JamesRising Treasury yields are sending shivers through the stock market, particularly for highflying tech-related stocks. But history shows that when yields are rising “for the right reasons,” tech shares and cyclically sensitive stocks tend to thrive, according to Raymond James.The right reasons are “improving economic growth and a ‘healthy’ rise in inflation,” said Larry Adam, chief investment officer for the private client group at Raymond James, in a weekend note. And those reasons have driven the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to just shy of 1.4%, or about their highest in a year. Yields also are coming off their largest weekly rise in six weeks.Adam highlighted the chart below, which breaks down the average annualized performance of each of the S&P 500’s 11 sectors and the percentage of time each sector outperforms the S&P 500 in a rising rate environment.RAYMOND JAMES“Since 1990, during rising rate environments, the more cyclical sectors have outperformed,” Adam noted. “The average annualized outperformance relative to the S&P 500 and the percentage of time it outperforms the S&P 500 is largest for the tech, consumer discretionary and industrials sectors — three of our preferred sectors,” while higher dividend-yielding sectors like utilities, real estate and consumer staples tend to underperform.Stocks wereputting in a mixed performanceon Monday, with the Nasdaq-100,down 2.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite,down 2.5%, suffering the steepest declines. Both are tilted toward large-cap, tech-oriented stocks.The Dow Jones Industrial Average was positive, while the S&P 500 was off 0.8%.The rise in yields is being blamed in large part on expectations for a potential surge in inflation thanks to ramped up government spending and ultraloose monetary policy. Fears that the Federal Reserve could move to begin withdrawing some liquidity sooner than anticipated is seen helping to unsettle stocks, analysts said.But Adam argued that inflation not only is unlikely to “short circuit” the rally, it may be a welcome development for stock-market bulls.“When analyzing how the S&P 500 performed under varying levels of core inflation, equities performed above-average in an environment where core inflation was between 1-4%,” he wrote.Inflation at those levels is generally considered healthy when it coincides with improving economic activity, Adam said. The reason is because companies have pricing power, allowing them to lift prices, while also reaping the benefits from productivity gains, which helps to boost earnings growth.Raymond James expects core inflation to be around 2%. Adam said that when core inflation runs between 1% and 3%, the average performance relative to the S&P 500 on a year-over-year basis has been strongest for the technology (+6.8%), healthcare (+2.3%) and consumer discretionary sectors (+2%).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NDX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1592,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386261643,"gmtCreate":1613185803282,"gmtModify":1634554214863,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573292049765150","idStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386261643","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1131,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":369537148,"gmtCreate":1614057113684,"gmtModify":1634551360798,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573292049765150","idStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/369537148","repostId":"1145339995","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":386261169,"gmtCreate":1613185756251,"gmtModify":1634554215106,"author":{"id":"3573292049765150","authorId":"3573292049765150","name":"5ky","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cbd3b628fb666b875e3f23ece4acfd5d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573292049765150","idStr":"3573292049765150"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":".","listText":".","text":".","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/386261169","repostId":"2110904027","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}
