SHAJ的个人主页 - 老虎社区

SHAJ

SHAJ

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2021-07-23

Overjoyed over a little.

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2021-07-28

Time to try cheap coffee.

Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>

2021-07-19

Ok will do.

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2021-07-22

Everything is managed.

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2021-07-15

They think delta means sleep on

US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>

2021-07-29

Getting unpopular

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-28

Bye-bye facebook

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-25

Prolly cos of greedy tutors taking advantage of tiger parents

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2021-07-23

Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees

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2021-07-21

Is alternative coming??

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2021-07-20

Turmoil turmoil turmoil

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2021-07-15

Just fight, the empire is going downhill anyway

Key Moderate Dems Not Yet On Board With $3.5 Trillion Spending Package<blockquote>主要温和派民主党尚未接受3.5万亿美元的支出计划</blockquote>

2021-07-10

FB? Nah

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2021-08-06

Hang in there.

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-21

Stay for the 1.5, then go.

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2021-07-21

Buy the notsodip

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2021-07-19

Plus don't come back.

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2021-07-29

Dump pp, too many complaints.

PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>

2021-07-28

Inari. Promising

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2021-07-27

Yet to try.

Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>

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Fashbook.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866301856","repostId":"1180956658","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2084,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":866303379,"gmtCreate":1632730676391,"gmtModify":1632798252125,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"The age of shedding responsibility.","listText":"The age of shedding responsibility.","text":"The age of shedding responsibility.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/866303379","repostId":"1128485442","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1128485442","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1632729714,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1128485442?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-27 16:01","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试按钮”已上线。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1128485442","media":"Barrons","summary":"Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car o","content":"<p>Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周五交付了“测试按钮”，为车主带来了下一个级别的自动驾驶。监管机构并不高兴。</blockquote></p><p> With the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>通过“测试按钮”，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）车主现在只需按一下手指即可请求特斯拉自动驾驶软件最复杂版本，称为全自动驾驶（FSD）。该按钮于周五上线。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新系统将为驾驶员提供左转等功能。特斯拉之前已经让一些司机测试了该系统。YouTube上有许多测试人员回顾该系统功能和问题的视频。</blockquote></p><p> Just hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉司机所要做的不仅仅是按下按钮。该按钮不会自动授予对新版本的访问权限。特斯拉对升级激活前一周的驾驶行为进行判断。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构对此次发布表示紧张，并将安全功能称为“测试版”。但除此之外，什么也没发生。投资者可以预计未来几周会发生更多事情，包括有关特斯拉全自动驾驶软件以及监管机构对此想法的视频、推文和故事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉尚未回应有关FSD的多次置评请求，但该公司在许多公共论坛上表示，它相信FSD软件使其车辆驾驶起来更安全。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉FSD是一种所谓的2级自动驾驶系统。2级意味着驾驶员需要时刻关注道路。新版本是同类系统。它使驾驶变得更加容易和方便，但没有系统可以让驾驶员完全停止对驾驶的注意力。这就是特斯拉和汽车行业其他公司在未来几年想要实现的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价则处于数月来的最高水平。该股周五收盘上涨2.8%，至774.49美元，目前2021年上涨约10%，仅次于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的可比涨幅。但所有这些收益都是最近才出现的。特斯拉股价在过去三个月上涨了15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试按钮”已上线。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla's 'Beta Button' Is Live. What It Means for the Stock.<blockquote>特斯拉的“测试按钮”已上线。这对股票意味着什么。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-27 16:01</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周五交付了“测试按钮”，为车主带来了下一个级别的自动驾驶。监管机构并不高兴。</blockquote></p><p> With the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>通过“测试按钮”，特斯拉（股票代码：TSLA）车主现在只需按一下手指即可请求特斯拉自动驾驶软件最复杂版本，称为全自动驾驶（FSD）。该按钮于周五上线。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉的新系统将为驾驶员提供左转等功能。特斯拉之前已经让一些司机测试了该系统。YouTube上有许多测试人员回顾该系统功能和问题的视频。</blockquote></p><p> Just hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉司机所要做的不仅仅是按下按钮。该按钮不会自动授予对新版本的访问权限。特斯拉对升级激活前一周的驾驶行为进行判断。</blockquote></p><p> Regulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.</p><p><blockquote>监管机构对此次发布表示紧张，并将安全功能称为“测试版”。但除此之外，什么也没发生。投资者可以预计未来几周会发生更多事情，包括有关特斯拉全自动驾驶软件以及监管机构对此想法的视频、推文和故事。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉尚未回应有关FSD的多次置评请求，但该公司在许多公共论坛上表示，它相信FSD软件使其车辆驾驶起来更安全。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉FSD是一种所谓的2级自动驾驶系统。2级意味着驾驶员需要时刻关注道路。新版本是同类系统。它使驾驶变得更加容易和方便，但没有系统可以让驾驶员完全停止对驾驶的注意力。这就是特斯拉和汽车行业其他公司在未来几年想要实现的目标。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the&nbsp;S&amp;P 500&nbsp;and&nbsp;Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价则处于数月来的最高水平。该股周五收盘上涨2.8%，至774.49美元，目前2021年上涨约10%，仅次于标准普尔500指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的可比涨幅。但所有这些收益都是最近才出现的。特斯拉股价在过去三个月上涨了15%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-autonomous-driving-beta-button-51632583470?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/tesla-stock-autonomous-driving-beta-button-51632583470?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1128485442","content_text":"Tesla delivered its “beta button” Friday, bringing the next level of autonomous driving to its car owners. Regulators aren’t happy.\nWith the “beta button,” Tesla (ticker: TSLA) owners can now request the most sophisticated version of Tesla’s autonomous-driving software, dubbed Full Self Driving, or FSD, with the press of a finger. The button went live on Friday.\n\nTesla’s new system will do things such as make left turns for the driver. Tesla has let some drivers test the system before now. Many videos from testers that review the capabilities—and issues—with the system are available on YouTube. \n\nJust hitting the button isn’t all Tesla drivers have to do. The button doesn’t grant access to the new version automatically. Tesla judges driving behavior for a week before the upgrade is activated.\n\nRegulators have expressed nervousness about the launch and calling a safety feature a “beta” version. But beyond that, nothing much has happened. Investors can expect more to happen in coming weeks, including videos, tweets, and stories about Tesla’s full self-driving software and what regulators are thinking about it.\nTesla hasn’t responded to multiple requests for comment about FSD, but the company has said in many public forums that it believes FSD software makes its vehicles safer to drive.\nTesla FSD is a so-called Level 2 autonomous-driving system. Level 2 means drivers need to watch the road at all times. The new version is the same kind of system. It makes driving easier and more convenient, but there are no systems that allow drivers to stop paying attention to driving altogether. That’s what Tesla, and the rest of the auto industry, wants to achieve years down the road.\n\nTesla stock, for its part, is at its highest level in months. Shares closed up 2.8% at $774.49 on Friday, and are now up about 10% in 2021, trailing just behind comparable gains of the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average. But all those gains have come recently. Tesla stock is up 15% over the past three months.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2074,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":893120118,"gmtCreate":1628248037534,"gmtModify":1633752272974,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there.","listText":"Hang in there.","text":"Hang in there.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893120118","repostId":"1135651416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808707477,"gmtCreate":1627609026299,"gmtModify":1633757823230,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pinterest is boring","listText":"Pinterest is boring","text":"Pinterest is boring","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808707477","repostId":"1154593458","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1525,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808365315,"gmtCreate":1627558469737,"gmtModify":1633763826892,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Getting unpopular","listText":"Getting unpopular","text":"Getting unpopular","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808365315","repostId":"1160646302","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1653,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808362372,"gmtCreate":1627558392596,"gmtModify":1633763827540,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","listText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","text":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808362372","repostId":"1157796712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157796712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627546052,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157796712?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157796712","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but","content":"<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>支付公司PayPal第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场普遍预期，该公司股价暴跌近5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为1.15美元，超过预期的1.13美元，销售额为62.4亿美元，低于分析师预期的62.7亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益为1.07美元，低于预期的1.14美元，而销售额指引为6.15至62.5亿美元，低于预期的6.43美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)写道：“第三季度前景将推动人们的叙述，收入预计比华尔街预期低约3.5%。每股收益预计低约6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了eBay向“托管支付”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。有eBay的TPV增长率为40%，没有out的TPV增长率为48%，而没有eBay的销售额增长率为32%，而有eBay的销售额增长率为19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官John Rainey在与分析师的看涨期权上表示：“我们现在从eBay吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。”他补充说，该公司“计划eBay对我们收入增长的拖累将大于之前的预期。这一拖累将使第三季度收入增长8.5个百分点，减少4.65亿美元，收入预计将达到62亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹·多列夫敦促投资者放眼长远。他在谈到PayPal在2020年的惊人增长时写道，虽然“新冠疫情蜜月可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的更强参与度以及“立即购买”等新举措的势头稍后付款”，交易量季度增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal百货第三季度将总支付量指引从30%上调至33%-35%，比疫情前水平高出10个百分点。他在一份报告中写道：“这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL的股价涨幅将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，它向商家收取的“使用率”持续疲软，指的是他们向PayPal支付的服务费用。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降到第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将这一下降归因于eBay交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal正面临更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 16:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>支付公司PayPal第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场普遍预期，该公司股价暴跌近5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为1.15美元，超过预期的1.13美元，销售额为62.4亿美元，低于分析师预期的62.7亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益为1.07美元，低于预期的1.14美元，而销售额指引为6.15至62.5亿美元，低于预期的6.43美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)写道：“第三季度前景将推动人们的叙述，收入预计比华尔街预期低约3.5%。每股收益预计低约6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了eBay向“托管支付”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。有eBay的TPV增长率为40%，没有out的TPV增长率为48%，而没有eBay的销售额增长率为32%，而有eBay的销售额增长率为19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官John Rainey在与分析师的看涨期权上表示：“我们现在从eBay吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。”他补充说，该公司“计划eBay对我们收入增长的拖累将大于之前的预期。这一拖累将使第三季度收入增长8.5个百分点，减少4.65亿美元，收入预计将达到62亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹·多列夫敦促投资者放眼长远。他在谈到PayPal在2020年的惊人增长时写道，虽然“新冠疫情蜜月可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的更强参与度以及“立即购买”等新举措的势头稍后付款”，交易量季度增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal百货第三季度将总支付量指引从30%上调至33%-35%，比疫情前水平高出10个百分点。他在一份报告中写道：“这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL的股价涨幅将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，它向商家收取的“使用率”持续疲软，指的是他们向PayPal支付的服务费用。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降到第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将这一下降归因于eBay交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal正面临更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157796712","content_text":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.\n\nPayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43\n“3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.\nPayPal highlighted the impact of eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.\n“We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.\nMizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.\nHe also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.\nBut expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.\nPayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801100375,"gmtCreate":1627485514497,"gmtModify":1633764520751,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Bye-bye facebook","listText":"Bye-bye facebook","text":"Bye-bye facebook","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801100375","repostId":"1179923360","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801372498,"gmtCreate":1627485335714,"gmtModify":1633764523387,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inari. Promising","listText":"Inari. Promising","text":"Inari. Promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801372498","repostId":"2154236859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801376343,"gmtCreate":1627485247982,"gmtModify":1631885102675,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","listText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","text":"Time to try cheap coffee.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801376343","repostId":"1112939298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112939298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484367,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112939298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112939298","media":"Barrons","summary":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s clo","content":"<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的盈利好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非GAAP每股收益为1.01美元，营收为75亿美元，创历史新高。分析师此前预测每股收益为0.77美元，营收为73亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和盈利超出了市场普遍预期的目标，星巴克股价仍下跌3%，至122.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长84%的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额总体增长了73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度仍然很高，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的90天活跃会员同比增长48%，目前占美国商店总支出的51%，比前增长了8%-大流行水平。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文·约翰逊在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展示了复苏之外的强大势头。我们快速、敏捷地行动以及领先于不断变化的客户行为的能力帮助星巴克进一步脱颖而出，让我们在这一刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司2021年每股收益预期从2.90-3.00美元上调至3.20-3.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望了解管理层对中国的展望，因为他们表达了对中国消费者抵制美国品牌的担忧。然而，约翰逊很快打消了这些担忧，他评论说，过去几年中国没有发生影响他们的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾他们的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen分析师安德鲁·查尔斯(Andrew Charles)表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了41%，低于他预期的62%增长。尽管如此，来自美国的令人印象深刻的数据足以让查尔斯将目标价从126美元提高到135美元。同样，Stifel分析师Chris O’Cull此前预计国际可比商店销售额将增长66%。奥卡尔进一步指出，管理层提供了指导，这意味着两年国际可比商店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国的强劲增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓的影响并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的盈利好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非GAAP每股收益为1.01美元，营收为75亿美元，创历史新高。分析师此前预测每股收益为0.77美元，营收为73亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和盈利超出了市场普遍预期的目标，星巴克股价仍下跌3%，至122.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长84%的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额总体增长了73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度仍然很高，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的90天活跃会员同比增长48%，目前占美国商店总支出的51%，比前增长了8%-大流行水平。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文·约翰逊在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展示了复苏之外的强大势头。我们快速、敏捷地行动以及领先于不断变化的客户行为的能力帮助星巴克进一步脱颖而出，让我们在这一刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司2021年每股收益预期从2.90-3.00美元上调至3.20-3.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望了解管理层对中国的展望，因为他们表达了对中国消费者抵制美国品牌的担忧。然而，约翰逊很快打消了这些担忧，他评论说，过去几年中国没有发生影响他们的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾他们的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen分析师安德鲁·查尔斯(Andrew Charles)表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了41%，低于他预期的62%增长。尽管如此，来自美国的令人印象深刻的数据足以让查尔斯将目标价从126美元提高到135美元。同样，Stifel分析师Chris O’Cull此前预计国际可比商店销售额将增长66%。奥卡尔进一步指出，管理层提供了指导，这意味着两年国际可比商店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国的强劲增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓的影响并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112939298","content_text":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.\nStarbucks reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.\nDespite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.\nDriven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.\nIn a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”\nThe strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.\nDuring the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a geopolitical event in China that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.\nWhile fears about rising labor costs did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.\nThe question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809434568,"gmtCreate":1627386178054,"gmtModify":1633765521321,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yet to try.","listText":"Yet to try.","text":"Yet to try.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809434568","repostId":"1118738178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118738178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627385338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118738178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118738178","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap需要跨越很高的门槛才能给投资者留下深刻印象。不仅第二季度业绩取得成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap在北美的ARPU是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在廉价地下室。因此，现阶段寻求买入的投资者必须采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和2021年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap的营收继续以非常强劲的速度增长，而其利润EBITDA增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以29倍的远期销售额计算，该股并不便宜。而考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚定的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为按照这个估值，该股已经消化了未来的大量增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一年前同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的收入同比增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越Snap在北美成熟的月活跃用户数，将其国际机遇视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管海外收入强劲，但Snap回报的真正驱动力来自北美用户的定价能力：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点放在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。正如您所看到的，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU同比增长116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美DAU同比仅增长6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系Snap的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的质疑。毕竟，Snap正在采取轻资产且利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，将其他制造商的资本投资转化为截至2021年第四季度运行收入近45亿美元的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap声称，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更身临其境的内容，还可以访问其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立用户生活旅程的数字清单。其他用途可以是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起Snap年轻人的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的29倍。如果我们与Pinterest(PINS)（其远期销售额约为19倍）进行比较，这提醒读者，Snap显然包含了很多兴奋、乐观、期望和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东可能很快就会注意到，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少以低价交易——尤其是在漫长的牛市即将结束时。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在向投资者发出信号，表明其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去12个月调整后EBITDA盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果SNAP 2021年第二季度116%的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么Snap调整后EBITDA增长超过200%看起来就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其净利润EBITDA预计将再次实现三位数的EBITDA同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一看跌的考虑因素是Snap的估值没有给投资者提供太多犯错的空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易成本更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪进行了定价。因此，当股票定价如此昂贵时，任何季度发生的任何事故都会使该股票面临大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于Snap的DAU持续稳步增长。此外，2021年第二季度北美的DAU仅实现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（COVID之前），Snap的DAU增长与上年同期大致相当。这不可否认地提醒我们，Snap的DAU增长此前已经趋于平缓，而且完全有可能再次趋于平缓。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap并不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会坐视这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值却便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap需要跨越很高的门槛才能给投资者留下深刻印象。不仅第二季度业绩取得成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap在北美的ARPU是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在廉价地下室。因此，现阶段寻求买入的投资者必须采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和2021年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap的营收继续以非常强劲的速度增长，而其利润EBITDA增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以29倍的远期销售额计算，该股并不便宜。而考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚定的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为按照这个估值，该股已经消化了未来的大量增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一年前同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的收入同比增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越Snap在北美成熟的月活跃用户数，将其国际机遇视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管海外收入强劲，但Snap回报的真正驱动力来自北美用户的定价能力：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点放在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。正如您所看到的，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU同比增长116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美DAU同比仅增长6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系Snap的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的质疑。毕竟，Snap正在采取轻资产且利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，将其他制造商的资本投资转化为截至2021年第四季度运行收入近45亿美元的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap声称，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更身临其境的内容，还可以访问其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立用户生活旅程的数字清单。其他用途可以是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起Snap年轻人的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的29倍。如果我们与Pinterest(PINS)（其远期销售额约为19倍）进行比较，这提醒读者，Snap显然包含了很多兴奋、乐观、期望和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东可能很快就会注意到，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少以低价交易——尤其是在漫长的牛市即将结束时。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在向投资者发出信号，表明其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去12个月调整后EBITDA盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果SNAP 2021年第二季度116%的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么Snap调整后EBITDA增长超过200%看起来就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其净利润EBITDA预计将再次实现三位数的EBITDA同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一看跌的考虑因素是Snap的估值没有给投资者提供太多犯错的空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易成本更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪进行了定价。因此，当股票定价如此昂贵时，任何季度发生的任何事故都会使该股票面临大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于Snap的DAU持续稳步增长。此外，2021年第二季度北美的DAU仅实现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（COVID之前），Snap的DAU增长与上年同期大致相当。这不可否认地提醒我们，Snap的DAU增长此前已经趋于平缓，而且完全有可能再次趋于平缓。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap并不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会坐视这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值却便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118738178","content_text":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.\nSnap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.\nSnap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.\n\nGeber86/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSnap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.\nAt 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.\nRevenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong\nSource: author's calculations; **high-end guidance\nQ2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.\nPreviously, I had noted that investors should look beyond Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.\nHowever, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:\n\nIn the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?\nIt's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.\nCould Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?\nFor some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.\nAt first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.\nIndeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.\nHaving said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.\nFor instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.\nThe underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.\nThis is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.\nWhile Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.\nHence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?\nSNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap\nSnap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.\nOn the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.\nMoreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.\nHence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.\nWhat's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.\nPremortem (Investment Risks)\nArguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.\nTo this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.\nNext, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.\n\nIf we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.\nThe Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?\nEven though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.\nWhile there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809435186,"gmtCreate":1627386113245,"gmtModify":1633765522126,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.&nbsp;","listText":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.&nbsp;","text":"Moral actions will cause upheaval only in the short term.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809435186","repostId":"2154813991","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":437,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800614388,"gmtCreate":1627297477644,"gmtModify":1633766415858,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whose selling","listText":"Whose selling","text":"Whose selling","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800614388","repostId":"1123832536","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800611028,"gmtCreate":1627297137464,"gmtModify":1633766418449,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Greed foot in the door","listText":"Greed foot in the door","text":"Greed foot in the door","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/800611028","repostId":"1175108896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175108896","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627290545,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175108896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-26 17:09","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175108896","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>  <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>  <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>  <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉表示正在转向类似Adobe的订阅商业模式，事实证明这种模式可以大幅提高收入。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为该行业设定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一种相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多收益。</li><li>我建议特斯拉多头在盈利前在其头寸中添加信贷策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上次写关于特斯拉(TSLA)的文章是在2019年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是回调至47美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再触及这个数字。如今，TSLA的股价超过了1,000美元，而且理由很充分。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉还有另一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。曾经我们为Adobe(ADBE)Photoshop等产品支付一次性费用，现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品的整个生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术落后的汽车行业来说，理解订阅商业模式比传统模式可以从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，而且对于通常被视为更多的特斯拉来说，我并不感到惊讶一家科技公司而不是汽车公司，将成为第一家采用这一策略的公司。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。来自SA上面链接的有关FSD订阅的新闻：</blockquote></p><p>   One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”  Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu是特斯拉FSD上涨的最大多头之一。他认为，到2030年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得约7,000美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的FSD订阅中获得近23,000美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，那么整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”Ferragu的预测符合我对基于订阅的商业模式的想法。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得像Adobe一样，该公司的绝大多数收入都来自订阅。（有关这种商业模式如何运作的更多信息，请参阅我最近关于Adobe的文章。）通过Adobe的结果可以轻松看出这种商业模式对收入的潜在影响（尽管许多其他公司也看到了同样的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这一观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，当涉及到汽车时，最好以合理的价格提供高质量的产品。但历史将证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车(GM)如何将福特(F)这家以制造经久耐用、优质汽车为基础的公司推入计划淘汰范式（每年为每个产品进行设计升级）该行业已陷入的产品线）。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大宗收入应该不是来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这种商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到这如何有利于软件和电影（迪士尼和Netflix等流媒体服务）的盈利能力，汽车也应该如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在2020年售出了约50万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉将在2021年额外生产30万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到2022年底，特斯拉将超过每年100万大关（可能在150万左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终购买了FSD订阅，那么，就像Adobe一样，订阅收入很快就会接近与传统模式的收入相等-请注意，该模式非常保守，因为它忽略了所有2020年之前生产的汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年FSD订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难判断订阅收入何时会超过车辆销售收入，因为该模型中存在许多未知数，例如订阅FSD的特斯拉驾驶员的百分比以及2023年Model 3在渗透“平价”汽车市场方面的成功。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，并且到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业数十年的障碍。如果是这样的话，我们可以看到针对汽车行业的政治政策案例中的收益差异较低。例如，FSD订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是猜测，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对FSD订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅很可能成为该公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，TSLA的IV应该会下降，而IV的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>无论从基本面还是股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度利多的。我认为这是特斯拉多头在任何重大回调时买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身利润丰厚，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其业绩记录——特斯拉最终会解决其自动驾驶功能中的技术问题，但我可以看到FSD可能失败的两大原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将FSD提升到承诺的5级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我的人工智能背景确实告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去成功地做出了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我拥有更多人工智能知识的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将死在的山上。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其次，价格可能太高。每月200美元，您可以租赁一辆全新的本田汽车，或者您可以进入特斯拉正在进行的FSD作为beta测试人员。随着我们进入2023年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，其25,000美元的Model 2使该公司能够接触到新的客户群，我们需要重新考虑每月200美元的订阅是否会吸引特斯拉的普通用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易得到解决，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻止特斯拉开创订阅即订阅所需的初始市场渗透。汽车行业的模型实施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很看涨。尽管与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但特斯拉并没有做出与该股不同的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像2020年初，就在大幅反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中值变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果你将其外推到200个交易日，你会发现TSLA往往会以相当平均的波动性再上涨10%。2020年的运动只是规模上的一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉即将盈利，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，玩TSLA而不是收益是相当危险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会玩TSLA而不是收益。因此，我建议那些对TSLA感兴趣的人在FSD订阅消息的支持下买入，因为这是看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果你在玩期权，你可能希望等到盈利之后，这样你就不会面临波动性挤压（期权IV迅速下跌，从而降低多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲盈利风险，以下是我的建议。我假设您持有100股TSLA股票，使其成为具有额外多头盈利能力的对冲：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>  <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7月30日卖出1x$700看跌期权</li><li>7月30日买入2倍650美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信贷：7000美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方获利。主要风险是如果TSLA盘整，在7月剩余时间内交易价格严格在650美元至700美元之间。否则，我们将从任何一方获利，要么通过下行的净多头看跌期权，要么通过股票加上多头策略赚取的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信TSLA不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每100股额外7000美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加FSD订阅极大地提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以迅速而彻底地改变公司的主要收入来源，并且可以轻松地将特斯拉转变为一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。既然如此，我们需要考虑这样一种可能性：特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是这家公司的开始，而特斯拉的财务未来在于其FSD服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司的价值，就像我们用EV镜头来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于FSD的前景，我长期高度看好TSLA。从短期来看，我认为技术面暗示着上行。随着7月26日的财报发布，您可能想要对冲TSLA波动性带来的下行风险。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Become A Subscription Company<blockquote>特斯拉可能成为一家订阅公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-26 17:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Tesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.</li>  <li>In this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.</li>  <li>Technically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.</li>  <li>I recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d0b0473d75b9ec97c9c4ae413f111f4f\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>特斯拉表示正在转向类似Adobe的订阅商业模式，事实证明这种模式可以大幅提高收入。</li><li>通过这种方式，特斯拉再次成为先行者，并将在未来几十年为该行业设定标准。</li><li>从技术上讲，最近的走势是一种相当正常的模式，往往会带来更多收益。</li><li>我建议特斯拉多头在盈利前在其头寸中添加信贷策略，以获得保护和额外收入。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>jetcityimage/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.</p><p><blockquote>我上次写关于特斯拉(TSLA)的文章是在2019年，当时我建议在回调时买入。表示回调是回调至47美元，特斯拉可能永远不会再触及这个数字。如今，TSLA的股价超过了1,000美元，而且理由很充分。</blockquote></p><p> And today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a&nbsp;full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.</p><p><blockquote>如今，特斯拉还有另一个理由来证明其高昂的价格是合理的。该公司推出了全自动驾驶（FSD）订阅。这是朝着正确方向迈出的一步。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Subscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model</b></p><p><blockquote><b>订阅：终极盈利模式</b></blockquote></p><p> Software – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.</p><p><blockquote>软件——以及更广泛的技术——已经转向基于订阅的商业模式，事实证明，就盈利能力而言，这种模式远远优于旧的经营方式（直接销售产品）。曾经我们为Adobe(ADBE)Photoshop等产品支付一次性费用，现在几乎可以肯定，我们在产品的整个生命周期内支付的费用远远超过一次性费用。对于技术落后的汽车行业来说，理解订阅商业模式比传统模式可以从客户那里吸走更多的钱只是时间问题，而且对于通常被视为更多的特斯拉来说，我并不感到惊讶一家科技公司而不是汽车公司，将成为第一家采用这一策略的公司。</blockquote></p><p> I believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:</p><p><blockquote>我相信皮埃尔·费拉古明白这一点。来自SA上面链接的有关FSD订阅的新闻：</blockquote></p><p>   One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”  Ferragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):</p><p><blockquote>New Street Research分析师Pierre Ferragu是特斯拉FSD上涨的最大多头之一。他认为，到2030年，特斯拉将从销售一辆汽车中获得约7,000美元的利润，从销售同一辆车的FSD订阅中获得近23,000美元的利润。如果Ferragu是正确的，那么整个行业有望转向自主订阅服务模式。”Ferragu的预测符合我对基于订阅的商业模式的想法。特斯拉的收入和订阅模式很容易变得像Adobe一样，该公司的绝大多数收入都来自订阅。（有关这种商业模式如何运作的更多信息，请参阅我最近关于Adobe的文章。）通过Adobe的结果可以轻松看出这种商业模式对收入的潜在影响（尽管许多其他公司也看到了同样的结果）：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7890fd8becf42b56654cfdcdadfd97de\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"427\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Of course, the stock sees results too:</p><p><blockquote>当然，该股也看到了结果：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32e86fdc239f4d4e1f3dea8a10634bf4\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Importantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.</p><p><blockquote>重要的是，费拉古指出，整个行业将转向订阅商业模式，我同意这一观点。有些人可能会说，汽车行业不是软件行业，当涉及到汽车时，最好以合理的价格提供高质量的产品。但历史将证明这是不正确的：看看通用汽车(GM)如何将福特(F)这家以制造经久耐用、优质汽车为基础的公司推入计划淘汰范式（每年为每个产品进行设计升级）该行业已陷入的产品线）。</blockquote></p><p> In the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.</p><p><blockquote>未来，特斯拉的大宗收入应该不是来自汽车销售，而是来自订阅。这是大多数行业向前发展的新经济，特斯拉将成为汽车行业这种商业模式的先驱。我们已经看到这如何有利于软件和电影（迪士尼和Netflix等流媒体服务）的盈利能力，汽车也应该如此。</blockquote></p><p> Consider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:</p><p><blockquote>考虑一下：特斯拉在2020年售出了约50万辆汽车。随着柏林、上海和德克萨斯工厂今年的投产，特斯拉将在2021年额外生产30万辆汽车。按照这个速度，到2022年底，特斯拉将超过每年100万大关（可能在150万左右）。假设每年生产的汽车中只有一半最终购买了FSD订阅，那么，就像Adobe一样，订阅收入很快就会接近与传统模式的收入相等-请注意，该模式非常保守，因为它忽略了所有2020年之前生产的汽车：</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year</b></p><p><blockquote><b>每年FSD订阅收入</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/707addf56e3e845f8eb7727ba378c382\" tg-width=\"903\" tg-height=\"353\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"> <table>  <tbody>   <tr></tr>  </tbody> </table> It is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr></tr></tbody></table>很难判断订阅收入何时会超过车辆销售收入，因为该模型中存在许多未知数，例如订阅FSD的特斯拉驾驶员的百分比以及2023年Model 3在渗透“平价”汽车市场方面的成功。然而，订阅收入的增长率是几何到指数级的，在未来几年内将达到两位数的百分比，并且到本十年末很可能成为特斯拉收入来源的大部分。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在这方面迈出了正确的一步，我们很可能会看到该公司克服困扰汽车行业数十年的障碍。如果是这样的话，我们可以看到针对汽车行业的政治政策案例中的收益差异较低。例如，FSD订阅的收入可能不会受到新关税和环境政策的影响，这两个监管来源通常针对汽车本身，而不是所使用的软件。这仍然是猜测，但到目前为止，我们没有理由怀疑政府会在其碳减排法规或税收政策中专门针对FSD订阅。</blockquote></p><p> Once successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.</p><p><blockquote>一旦成功推出，FSD订阅很可能成为该公司可靠的收入来源。随着订阅收入增长到超过销售收入，投资者将越来越多地将特斯拉视为一项安全的投资。随着订阅收入超过传统销售收入，TSLA的IV应该会下降，而IV的下降往往与股价上涨相关。</blockquote></p><p> From both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.</p><p><blockquote>无论从基本面还是股票角度来看，FSD认购公告都是高度利多的。我认为这是特斯拉多头在任何重大回调时买入的理由。</blockquote></p><p> Yet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.</p><p><blockquote>然而，我们必须承认，与所有新的商业模式一样，投资者也有固有的风险。虽然订阅模式本身利润丰厚，但特斯拉司机是否会接受FSD订阅仍然是成功采用该模式的关键因素。虽然我相信——由于其业绩记录——特斯拉最终会解决其自动驾驶功能中的技术问题，但我可以看到FSD可能失败的两大原因。</blockquote></p><p> First, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.</p><p><blockquote>首先，特斯拉可能无法将FSD提升到承诺的5级，这可能会导致订户提起集体诉讼。FSD的技术方面超出了我的专业知识，尽管我的人工智能背景确实告诉我，达到5级是一项巨大的努力。马斯克过去成功地做出了巨大的努力，但也许那些比我拥有更多人工智能知识的人有充分的理由相信，这是马斯克将死在的山上。</blockquote></p><p> Second, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.</p><p><blockquote>其次，价格可能太高。每月200美元，您可以租赁一辆全新的本田汽车，或者您可以进入特斯拉正在进行的FSD作为beta测试人员。随着我们进入2023年，这对特斯拉来说应该是重要的一年，其25,000美元的Model 2使该公司能够接触到新的客户群，我们需要重新考虑每月200美元的订阅是否会吸引特斯拉的普通用户群。从长远来看，定价过高的订阅模式很容易得到解决，因此不应被视为牛市论点的巨大风险，但过高的价格可能会阻止特斯拉开创订阅即订阅所需的初始市场渗透。汽车行业的模型实施。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Technical Bullishness</b></p><p><blockquote><b>技术看涨</b></blockquote></p><p> From a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:</p><p><blockquote>从技术角度来看，特斯拉看起来也很看涨。尽管与过去几年相比，特斯拉经常被认为定价过高，但特斯拉并没有做出与该股不同的走势。最近的走势模式实际上看起来很像2020年初，就在大幅反弹之前：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ba282cb205e46e0448e0f01c7d8ee3f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Once you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:</p><p><blockquote>一旦你控制了交易日，走势看起来相对保守。它是关于给定季度的中值变动：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1df19786e20b710470c561208d69d7c5\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> If you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:</p><p><blockquote>如果你将其外推到200个交易日，你会发现TSLA往往会以相当平均的波动性再上涨10%。2020年的运动只是规模上的一个异常值；这种模式本身与特斯拉通常的年度走势没有太大区别：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/15a41d91691e32e1243015029fa67fa9\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"420\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（来源：Damon Verial；数据来自Tiingo）</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> With TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.</p><p><blockquote>随着特斯拉即将盈利，一份令人印象深刻的盈利报告可能会给我们带来类似的上涨趋势。当然，玩TSLA而不是收益是相当危险的，这就是为什么我们在我的收益交易组（暴露收益）中通常不会玩TSLA而不是收益。因此，我建议那些对TSLA感兴趣的人在FSD订阅消息的支持下买入，因为这是看涨的基本面催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Options Strategy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>期权策略</b></blockquote></p><p> If you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:</p><p><blockquote>然而，如果你在玩期权，你可能希望等到盈利之后，这样你就不会面临波动性挤压（期权IV迅速下跌，从而降低多头期权的价值，因为多头期权也是多头织女星）。不过，如果您想采取期权策略来对冲盈利风险，以下是我的建议。我假设您持有100股TSLA股票，使其成为具有额外多头盈利能力的对冲：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>Sell 1x Jul 30 $700 put</li>  <li>Buy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts</li> </ol> Net credit: $7000</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>7月30日卖出1x$700看跌期权</li><li>7月30日买入2倍650美元看跌期权</li></ol>净信贷：7000美元</blockquote></p><p> This is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.</p><p><blockquote>这是一个不稳定的策略，这意味着它允许我们在任何一方获利。主要风险是如果TSLA盘整，在7月剩余时间内交易价格严格在650美元至700美元之间。否则，我们将从任何一方获利，要么通过下行的净多头看跌期权，要么通过股票加上多头策略赚取的信用。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.</p><p><blockquote>即使您确信TSLA不会因盈利而抛售，该策略也会为您带来每100股额外7000美元的利润。你也有下行保护的附加值。请在评论区告诉我你的想法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> Tesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉增加FSD订阅极大地提高了公司的最大收入潜力。事实证明，订阅服务可以迅速而彻底地改变公司的主要收入来源，并且可以轻松地将特斯拉转变为一家软件公司，而不是一家汽车公司。既然如此，我们需要考虑这样一种可能性：特斯拉进入电动汽车市场只是这家公司的开始，而特斯拉的财务未来在于其FSD服务。如果是这样，我们就低估了这家公司的价值，就像我们用EV镜头来判断一家软件公司一样。</blockquote></p><p> I am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.</p><p><blockquote>由于FSD的前景，我长期高度看好TSLA。从短期来看，我认为技术面暗示着上行。随着7月26日的财报发布，您可能想要对冲TSLA波动性带来的下行风险。但总体而言，即使出现短期回调，以这个价格做多特斯拉也可能是一个有利可图的决定。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441324-tesla-could-become-a-subscription-company","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175108896","content_text":"Summary\n\nTesla is indicating a movement toward an Adobe-like subscription business model, which has been shown to skyrocket revenue.\nIn this way, Tesla is again a first-mover and will set the standards for the industry in the coming decades.\nTechnically, the recent movement is a rather normal pattern and tends to lead to more gains.\nI recommend TSLA longs add a credit strategy to their position before earnings, both for protection and extra income.\n\njetcityimage/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nI last wrote about Tesla(TSLA) in 2019, when I recommended a buy on the pullback. Said pullback was a pullback to $47, a number TSLA will likely never hit again. These days, TSLA flirts with numbers over $1,000, and with good reason.\nAnd today, TSLA has yet another reason to justify its lofty price. The company has unveiled a full self driving(FSD) subscription. This is a step in the right direction.\nSubscriptions: The Ultimate Profit Model\nSoftware – and more broadly, tech – has been moving to subscription-based business models, which have proved themselves to be vastly superior to the old way of doing business (selling a product outright) in terms of profitability. Whereas once we paid a one-time fee for a product such as Adobe (ADBE) Photoshop, now we are almost certainly paying much more than that one-time payment over the product’s lifetime. It was only a matter of time for the slower-than-tech automotive industry to understand that subscription business models can siphon much more money from the customer than the traditional model, and I’m not surprised that Tesla, often regarded more as a tech company than an automobile company, is to be the first company employing this strategy.\nI believe Pierre Ferragu understands this. From SA’s above-linked news on the FSD subscription:\n\n One of the biggest bulls on the FSD upside for Tesla is New Street Research analyst Pierre Ferragu. He thinks Tesla will make roughly $7K in profit from selling a car and almost $23K from selling FSD subscriptions on the same vehicle by 2030. If Ferragu is correct, the entire industry is expected to move toward an autonomous subscription service model.”\n\nFerragu’s predictions match my thoughts on the subscription-based business model. Tesla’s revenue and subscription paradigm could easily become Adobe-like, where the vast majority of the company’s revenue stems from subscriptions. (Seemy recent article on Adobefor more on how this business model works.) The potential of this business model’s impact on revenue is easily seen via Adobe’s results (though many other companies are seeing the same sort of results):\n\nOf course, the stock sees results too:\n\nImportantly, Ferragu notes that the whole industry will move toward the subscription business model, a sentiment I agree with. Some might argue that the automotive industry is not the software industry and that it is better to provide a quality product at a fair price when it comes to automobiles. But history would show this to be incorrect: Look at how General Motors (GM) pushed even Ford (F), a company that built itself on creating long-lasting, quality cars, into the planned obsolescence paradigm (yearly design upgrades for each product line) that the industry has fallen into.\nIn the future, Tesla’s bulk revenue should come not from car sales but from subscriptions. This is the new economy for most industries moving forward, and Tesla will be the pioneer of this business model in the automotive industry. We’ve seen how this has played out to the benefit of profitability in software and film (streaming services such as Disney and Netflix), and it should play out similarly for automobiles.\nConsider this: Tesla sold around 500K cars in 2020. With the Berlin, Shanghai, and Texas plants in action this year, Tesla should be producing an extra 300K cars in 2021. At this rate, Tesla will be over the 1M per year mark (likely around 1.5M) before the end of 2022. Assume only half of the produced cars per year end up with a FSD subscription, then, a la Adobe, subscription revenue can be seen quickly approaching equality with the revenue from the traditional model – note that this model is highly conservative as it ignores all cars produced prior to 2020:\nRevenue from FSD Subscriptions Per Year\n\n\n\n\n\n\nIt is difficult to tell when subscription revenue will surpass vehicle sales revenue because of numerous unknowns in the model, such as the percentage of Tesla drivers subscribing to FSD and the success of the 2023 Model 3 in penetrating the “affordable” car market. However, the rate at which subscription revenue grows is geometric-to-exponential, will be a double-digit percentage within the next couple years and is likely to be the majority of Tesla’s revenue stream by the end of the decade.\nTesla is taking the right step here, and we could very well see the company overcome hurdles that have plagued the car industry for decades. If so, we could see lower earnings variance in the cases of political policies targeting the automotive industry. For instance, revenue from the FSD subscription could remain unscathed by new tariffs and environmental policies, two sources of regulation that typically target cars themselves, not the software being employed. This is still speculative, but thus far we have no reason to suspect governments will specifically target FSD subscriptions in their carbon-reduction regulations or in tax policies.\nOnce successfully rolled out, the FSD subscription is likely to become a source of reliable income for the company. As subscription revenue grows to where it exceeds sales revenue, investors will increasingly see Tesla as a safe investment. IV on TSLA should drop as subscription revenue outpaces traditional sales revenue, and drops in IV tend to correlate with stock moving upward.\nFrom both a fundamental perspective and a stock perspective, the FSD subscription announcement is highly bullish. I see this as a reason for TSLA bulls to buy on any significant pullback.\nYet we must admit, as with all new business models, investors have inherent risk. While the subscription model is extremely profitable itself, whether Tesla drivers will accept the FSD subscription remains a key factor in successfully employing the model. While I believe – due to its track record – Tesla will eventually work out the technical kinks in its self-driving feature, I can see two big reasons that FSD could flop.\nFirst, Tesla could fail to bring FSD to level 5, the level promised, perhaps leading to a class-action lawsuit from subscribers. The technical aspects of FSD are beyond my expertise, though my background in AI does tell me that achieving level 5 is a monumental effort. Musk has successfully pulled off monumental efforts in the past, but perhaps those with more AI knowledge than I have good reason to believe that this is the hill upon which Musk will die.\nSecond, the price point might be too high. For $200 per month, you could lease a brand new Honda – or you can enter Tesla’s work-in-progress FSD as a sort of beta tester. As we enter 2023, which should be a big year for Tesla with its $25,000 Model 2s allowing the company access to a new customer demographic, we need to reconsider whether a $200-per-month subscription will be appealing to the general Tesla user base. An overpriced subscription model can be easily fixed in the long run and should thus not be seen as a huge risk to the bull thesis, but too high of a price can prevent that initial market penetration Tesla needs in pioneering the subscription-as-a-model implementation in the automobile industry.\nTechnical Bullishness\nFrom a technical perspective, too, TSLA is looking bullish. While often cited as being incredibly overpriced relative to the past couple years, TSLA is not making movements that are uncharacteristic of the stock. The recent movement pattern actually looks quite a bit like the one in early 2020, right before the huge rally:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nOnce you control for trading days, the movement looks relatively conservative. It’s about the median movement for a given quarter:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nIf you extrapolate this to 200 trading days, you will find that TSLA tends to move upward another 10% with rather average volatility. The 2020 movement is an outlier in magnitude only; the pattern itself does not differ all that much from TSLA’s usual yearly movements:\n(Source: Damon Verial; data from Tiingo)\nWith TSLA heading into earnings, an impressive earnings report could give us a similar upward movement. Of course, playing TSLA over earnings is quite risky, which is why we do not typically play TSLA over earnings in my earnings-trading group (Exposing Earnings). Thus, I recommend those interested in TSLA buy on the back of the FSD subscription news, as this is a bullish fundamental catalyst.\nOptions Strategy\nIf you are playing options, however, you might wish to wait until after earnings so that you are not exposed to a volatility crush (option IV falling rapidly and thus decreasing the values of long options, as long options are also long vega). If you want to take an options strategy to hedge earnings risk, though, here is what I recommend. I’m assuming you’re holding 100 shares of TSLA, making this a hedge with extra profitability on the long side:\n\nSell 1x Jul 30 $700 put\nBuy 2x Jul 30 $650 puts\n\nNet credit: $7000\nThis is a volatile strategy, meaning it allows us to profit on either side. The major risk is if TSLA consolidates, trading strictly between $650 and $700 over the rest of July. Otherwise, we stand to profit on either side, either by the net long puts on the downside or via the stock plus credit earned from the strategy on the long side.\nEven if you are confident TSLA will not sell off on earnings, this strategy works to your benefit by bringing in an extra $7000 in profit per 100 shares. You have the added value of downside protection, too. Let me know what you think in the comments section.\nConclusion\nTesla’s addition of an FSD subscription greatly improves the company’s maximum revenue potential. Subscription services have proved themselves to quickly and drastically change the primary source of revenue for a company and could easily turn Tesla into a software company more so than an automotive company. Being so, we need to consider the possibility that Tesla entering the EV market was just the beginning for this company and that the financial future of Tesla is in its FSD service. If so, we are undervaluing this company, as we are using an EV lens to judge a software company.\nI am highly bullish on TSLA in the long term due to the FSD prospects. In the short term, I believe the technicals are implying an upward swing. With earnings on Jul 26, you might want to hedge the downside simply due to TSLA’s volatility. But overall, being long on TSLA at this price is likely a profitable decision even with a short-term pullback.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":953,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":800619655,"gmtCreate":1627297065277,"gmtModify":1633766419187,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3573708491598785","authorIdStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wat NASA do then?","listText":"Wat NASA do then?","text":"Wat NASA do 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tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","listText":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","text":"Bec tutoring is causing a lot of pain, like doctors fees","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175202524","repostId":"2153600177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":974,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":175208844,"gmtCreate":1627031717488,"gmtModify":1633768619326,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Overjoyed over a little.","listText":"Overjoyed over a little.","text":"Overjoyed over a little.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175208844","repostId":"1164478982","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":425,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801376343,"gmtCreate":1627485247982,"gmtModify":1631885102675,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","listText":"Time to try cheap coffee.","text":"Time to try cheap coffee.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801376343","repostId":"1112939298","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1112939298","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627484367,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1112939298?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-28 22:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1112939298","media":"Barrons","summary":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s clo","content":"<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的盈利好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非GAAP每股收益为1.01美元，营收为75亿美元，创历史新高。分析师此前预测每股收益为0.77美元，营收为73亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和盈利超出了市场普遍预期的目标，星巴克股价仍下跌3%，至122.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长84%的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额总体增长了73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度仍然很高，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的90天活跃会员同比增长48%，目前占美国商店总支出的51%，比前增长了8%-大流行水平。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文·约翰逊在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展示了复苏之外的强大势头。我们快速、敏捷地行动以及领先于不断变化的客户行为的能力帮助星巴克进一步脱颖而出，让我们在这一刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司2021年每股收益预期从2.90-3.00美元上调至3.20-3.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望了解管理层对中国的展望，因为他们表达了对中国消费者抵制美国品牌的担忧。然而，约翰逊很快打消了这些担忧，他评论说，过去几年中国没有发生影响他们的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾他们的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen分析师安德鲁·查尔斯(Andrew Charles)表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了41%，低于他预期的62%增长。尽管如此，来自美国的令人印象深刻的数据足以让查尔斯将目标价从126美元提高到135美元。同样，Stifel分析师Chris O’Cull此前预计国际可比商店销售额将增长66%。奥卡尔进一步指出，管理层提供了指导，这意味着两年国际可比商店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国的强劲增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓的影响并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks Earnings Crushed Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>星巴克盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-28 22:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.</p><p><blockquote>尽管星巴克在周二收盘后公布的盈利好于预期，但其股价仍在下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks&nbsp;reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克公布的非GAAP每股收益为1.01美元，营收为75亿美元，创历史新高。分析师此前预测每股收益为0.77美元，营收为73亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Despite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.</p><p><blockquote>尽管收入和盈利超出了市场普遍预期的目标，星巴克股价仍下跌3%，至122.30美元。</blockquote></p><p> Driven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active&nbsp;members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program&nbsp;increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote>在美国同店销售额增长84%的推动下，这家全球咖啡巨头报告称，与去年第三季度相比，同店销售额总体增长了73%。事实上，品牌忠诚度仍然很高，尤其是在美国，星巴克奖励忠诚度计划的90天活跃会员同比增长48%，目前占美国商店总支出的51%，比前增长了8%-大流行水平。</blockquote></p><p> In a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”</p><p><blockquote>星巴克首席执行官凯文·约翰逊在一份声明中告诉投资者：“星巴克在第三季度取得了创纪录的业绩，展示了复苏之外的强大势头。我们快速、敏捷地行动以及领先于不断变化的客户行为的能力帮助星巴克进一步脱颖而出，让我们在这一刻处于有利地位。”</blockquote></p><p> The strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.</p><p><blockquote>强劲的业绩促使管理层将公司2021年每股收益预期从2.90-3.00美元上调至3.20-3.25美元。</blockquote></p><p> During the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a&nbsp;geopolitical event in China&nbsp;that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.</p><p><blockquote>在财报看涨期权上，分析师们渴望了解管理层对中国的展望，因为他们表达了对中国消费者抵制美国品牌的担忧。然而，约翰逊很快打消了这些担忧，他评论说，过去几年中国没有发生影响他们的地缘政治事件，只要他们继续照顾他们的合作伙伴和客户，他预计这种情况不会发生。</blockquote></p><p> While fears about&nbsp;rising labor costs&nbsp;did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.</p><p><blockquote>尽管由于营业利润率高于上季度和去年同期，对劳动力成本上升的担忧并未成为现实，但分析师预计国际市场的表现会更好。Cowen分析师安德鲁·查尔斯(Andrew Charles)表示，星巴克同店销售额与去年同期相比变化了41%，低于他预期的62%增长。尽管如此，来自美国的令人印象深刻的数据足以让查尔斯将目标价从126美元提高到135美元。同样，Stifel分析师Chris O’Cull此前预计国际可比商店销售额将增长66%。奥卡尔进一步指出，管理层提供了指导，这意味着两年国际可比商店销售额大致持平。</blockquote></p><p> The question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.</p><p><blockquote>投资者面临的问题仍然是，美国的强劲增长是否足以继续抵消国际增长放缓的影响并推高股价。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/starbucks-earnings-stock-51627419105?mod=hp_LATEST","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1112939298","content_text":"Starbucks stock was dropping despite reporting better-than-expected earnings following Tuesday’s close.\nStarbucks reported non-GAAP per-share earnings of $1.01 on $7.5 billion in revenue, a record. Analysts had forecast earnings per share of $0.77 on $7.3 billion in revenue.\nDespite beating consensus revenue and earnings targets, Starbucks stock is down 3%, to $122.30.\nDriven by an 84% increase in same-store sales in America, the global coffee giant reported an overall increase in comparable-store sales of 73% relative to the third quarter last year. Indeed, brand loyalty remains strong, especially in the U.S. where 90-day active members of the Starbucks Rewards loyalty program increased 48% year-over-year and now account for 51% of all spending in U.S. stores–up 8% from pre-pandemic levels.\nIn a statement, Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson told investors “Starbucks delivered record performance in the third quarter, demonstrating powerful momentum beyond recovery. Our ability to move with speed and agility and to be out in front of shifting customer behaviors has helped further differentiate Starbucks, positioning us well for this moment.”\nThe strong results have prompted management to raise the company’s 2021 earnings per share outlook from $2.90-$3.00 to $3.20-$3.25.\nDuring the earnings call, analysts were keen to hear about management’s outlook on China, as they expressed concerns about consumer pushback against U.S. brands in the region. However, Johnson was quick to dispel the concerns, commenting that there hasn’t been a geopolitical event in China that has impacted them in the past couple of years, and he doesn’t foresee that happening as long as they continue taking care of their partners and customers.\nWhile fears about rising labor costs did not materialize since operating margins were higher than last quarter and the corresponding period last year, analysts were expecting better performance in international markets. Cowen analyst, Andrew Charles, stated that Starbucks’s 41% change in comparable-store sales relative to the same period last year fell short of the 62% growth he anticipated to see. Nonetheless, the impressive numbers from the U.S. were enough for Charles to raise his price target from $126 to $135. Likewise, Stifel analyst Chris O’Cull had expected international comparable store sales to increase 66%. O’Cull further noted that management offered guidance, which implied roughly flat two-year international comparable store sales.\nThe question to investors remains whether strong U.S. growth is enough to keep on offsetting slower international growth and push the stock higher.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173873013,"gmtCreate":1626655181832,"gmtModify":1633925253494,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok will do.","listText":"Ok will do.","text":"Ok will do.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173873013","repostId":"1160548856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":451,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":176752702,"gmtCreate":1626917545106,"gmtModify":1633769766436,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Everything is managed.","listText":"Everything is managed.","text":"Everything is managed.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176752702","repostId":"2153477496","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":343,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":144482653,"gmtCreate":1626310346072,"gmtModify":1633928030525,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"They think delta means sleep on","listText":"They think delta means sleep on","text":"They think delta means sleep on","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144482653","repostId":"1158066571","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1158066571","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626309470,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1158066571?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 08:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1158066571","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that","content":"<p>Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，消费者正在积极地在服务上支出，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，但他们仍然没有被吓倒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首先，快速更新一下美国的病毒现状。</b></blockquote></p><p> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.</p><p><blockquote>在截至7月9日的一周内，平均每日病毒病例跃升28.3%至17.4 K，在截至7月9日的一周内，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4 K。这是自5月31日以来的最高水平，比截至7月2日的一周增长了28.3%。正如美国银行今天上午指出的，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例有所增长，疫苗接种率较低的州病例增长较快。如下图所示，世行发现州一级病毒病例的增长和疫苗接种率呈负相关关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.</p><p><blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了最近病例的增加。Outbreak.info估计，在截至7月7日的60天内，该变种占病毒病例的20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均接种量降至约50万次。这可能部分是由于7月4日假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,<b>with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.</b>This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，<b>迄今为止，67.7%的成年人口和88.7%的65岁及以上人口至少接种过一次疫苗。</b>美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延。然而，世行警告说，各州之间和州内的疫苗接种率不均意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，出现疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是由于简单的人口动态，新冠肺炎可能会在可预见的未来与我们同在。</blockquote></p><p> In light of this data,<b>BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.</b>This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.</p><p><blockquote>根据这一数据，<b>美国银行认为，短期内病例将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。</b>这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为在病毒方面，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济活动</b></blockquote></p><p> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.<b>Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Q</b>and is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月10日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长9.8%，略低于前一周的10.0%。<b>从第二季度来看，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长11.1%，这意味着saar环比增长2.9%。这将比第一季度的6.4%显着减速</b>低于当前普遍预测的环比10.0%或同比13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费者活动</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA,<b>consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.</b>Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:</p><p><blockquote>据美国银行称，<b>到目前为止，消费者对服务的兴趣并没有因为病例的增加而减弱。</b>截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，连续第二周成为票房冠军。以下是详细信息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li>  <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.<b>International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，公园游客本周激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天日均航空客运量增长2.9%至203.2万人次。这是2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游快速反弹，企业和国际旅游持续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。<b>国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li>  <li><b>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月12日当周，OpenTable网络上的就餐人数比2019年下降了7.8%。这比前一周增长了1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们仍然预计外出就餐将接近2019年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者外出就餐的意愿，即使他们接种了疫苗。</li><li><b>截至7月2日当周车用汽油需求自疫情爆发以来首次超过2017-2019年周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M with<i>F9: The Fast Saga</i>remaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入仍然很高，但较上周的疫情高点有所下降。收入从1.4亿美元降至1.15亿美元<i>F9：快速传奇</i>剩下的第一个版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于大流行前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应需要迎头赶上。</li></ul><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li>  <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行追踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为Homebase和美国人员指数的数据分别只能在7月11日和3日之前获得。以下是更多细节：</li><li>Homebase的小企业就业数据仍然受到7月4日假期的影响，因为最新的可用数据仅截至7月11日，我们关注7天移动平均线来消除工作日的噪音。下周的数据将提供更多信息，因为我们将对7月份就业数据进行首次估计。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，首次申请失业救济人数变化不大，为37.3万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是近期劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> <b>Industrial activity</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，美国人员配备指数较两年前增长8.4%。大幅增长很可能是2019年7月4日假期与2021年7月4日假期时间的结果。也就是说，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul><b>工业活动</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长10.9%，扭转了前一周5.0%的跌幅。煤炭、机动车辆及零部件以及化学品装车量激增推动了这一反弹。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li>  <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\"><b>Real Estate</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量上升1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至7月9日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了4个，达到479个。四个新钻井平台中有两个是石油钻井平台，使总数达到378个。尽管需求强劲导致油价高位运行，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul><b>房地产</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至7月2日当周下降1.1%。供应有限继续被认为是销量下降的一个关键原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。在10个主要都会区，平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在尽其所能为另一场即将到来的令人兴奋的封锁制造恐慌，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者行为。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS Consumers So Far Completely Undeterred By Delta Variant<blockquote>迄今为止，美国消费者完全没有被德尔塔变异毒株吓倒</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 08:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.</p><p><blockquote>尽管最近美国德尔塔变异毒株新冠病例激增，但经济数据继续显示，消费者正在积极地在服务上支出，尽管媒体尽最大努力引发新的封锁前恐慌，但他们仍然没有被吓倒。</blockquote></p><p> <b>First, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>首先，快速更新一下美国的病毒现状。</b></blockquote></p><p> Average daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and&nbsp; vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.</p><p><blockquote>在截至7月9日的一周内，平均每日病毒病例跃升28.3%至17.4 K，在截至7月9日的一周内，病毒病例的7天移动平均值增至17.4 K。这是自5月31日以来的最高水平，比截至7月2日的一周增长了28.3%。正如美国银行今天上午指出的，从7月2日到7月9日，40个州的每日病例有所增长，疫苗接种率较低的州病例增长较快。如下图所示，世行发现州一级病毒病例的增长和疫苗接种率呈负相关关系。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a8f8ff33b4322b837d74df703dbe8ecf\" tg-width=\"969\" tg-height=\"396\">Along with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.</p><p><blockquote>除了疫苗接种率低之外，比早期毒株更具传染性的德尔塔变异毒株病毒也导致了最近病例的增加。Outbreak.info估计，在截至7月7日的60天内，该变种占病毒病例的20%。</blockquote></p><p> Meantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，疫苗接种率明显放缓，7天平均接种量降至约50万次。这可能部分是由于7月4日假期；然而，自4月份以来，镜头一直呈下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d18acf4b8e419fca5e8c613ab16b4376\" tg-width=\"953\" tg-height=\"430\">Regardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,<b>with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.</b>This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.</p><p><blockquote>无论如何，美国仍然是接种疫苗最多的国家之一，<b>迄今为止，67.7%的成年人口和88.7%的65岁及以上人口至少接种过一次疫苗。</b>美国银行承认，这应该会限制德尔塔变异毒株的蔓延。然而，世行警告说，各州之间和州内的疫苗接种率不均意味着有些地区对这种高传染性变种几乎没有保护。此外，病毒停留的时间越长，出现疫苗抗性变异的风险就越大。简而言之：无论是法令还是由于简单的人口动态，新冠肺炎可能会在可预见的未来与我们同在。</blockquote></p><p> In light of this data,<b>BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.</b>This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.</p><p><blockquote>根据这一数据，<b>美国银行认为，短期内病例将继续激增，但预计不会再次广泛实施活动限制。</b>这意味着，虽然经济的下行风险相对较低，但该行的经济学家将继续重新评估这一观点，因为在病毒方面，情况可能会在几天内发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Economic activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>经济活动</b></blockquote></p><p> The NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.<b>Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Q</b>and is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.</p><p><blockquote>截至7月10日当周，纽约联储每周经济指数同比增长9.8%，略低于前一周的10.0%。<b>从第二季度来看，美联储每周指数预测第二季度同比增长11.1%，这意味着saar环比增长2.9%。这将比第一季度的6.4%显着减速</b>低于当前普遍预测的环比10.0%或同比13.0%。也就是说，纽约联储指数往往低于实际增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f6b7d3b219d45a1ccc472990cd6d3574\" tg-width=\"967\" tg-height=\"437\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>Consumer activity</b></p><p><blockquote><b>消费者活动</b></blockquote></p><p> According to BofA,<b>consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.</b>Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.&nbsp; Here are the details:</p><p><blockquote>据美国银行称，<b>到目前为止，消费者对服务的兴趣并没有因为病例的增加而减弱。</b>截至7月12日当周，外出就餐和航空旅行分别增长了1.2%和2.9%。电影票房收入也保持高位，连续第二周成为票房冠军。以下是详细信息：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Time spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.</li>  <li>The 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.<b>International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161637f140c4839c642d16e00d49efbf\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"793\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>鉴于7月4日假期，截至7月9日的一周内，在家度过的时间有所增加。同样，公园游客本周激增15.7%，工作场所游客下降7.7%。也就是说，由于假期，人们应该忽略这些大动作。</li><li>截至7月12日当周，7天日均航空客运量增长2.9%至203.2万人次。这是2019年同一周流量的79.3%，低于前一周的81.1%。休闲旅游快速反弹，企业和国际旅游持续滞后。尽管如此，美国银行策略师指出，商务旅行呈上升趋势。<b>国际旅行仍然低迷，在可预见的未来，德尔塔变异毒株可能会限制国际旅行。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>Seated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.</li>  <li><b>Motor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.</b></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffe113fa6aab43c176be77814a095132\" tg-width=\"962\" tg-height=\"380\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月12日当周，OpenTable网络上的就餐人数比2019年下降了7.8%。这比前一周增长了1.2%，因为南部和西部的每周增长抵消了东北部和中西部的下降。我们仍然预计外出就餐将接近2019年的水平，但对德尔塔变异毒株的新担忧可能会开始影响消费者外出就餐的意愿，即使他们接种了疫苗。</li><li><b>截至7月2日当周车用汽油需求自疫情爆发以来首次超过2017-2019年周平均水平。这可能部分是由于假期的季节性影响。</b></li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Movie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M with<i>F9: The Fast Saga</i>remaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.</li> </ul> <b>Labor market</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>电影票房收入仍然很高，但较上周的疫情高点有所下降。收入从1.4亿美元降至1.15亿美元<i>F9：快速传奇</i>剩下的第一个版本。由于电影上映数量有限，每部电影的平均收入高于大流行前的水平。这表明需求强劲，但供应需要迎头赶上。</li></ul><b>劳动力市场</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:</li>  <li>The data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c88f4b28837affceda16db7940d9ada5\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"422\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行追踪的就业数据继续受到假期的影响，因为Homebase和美国人员指数的数据分别只能在7月11日和3日之前获得。以下是更多细节：</li><li>Homebase的小企业就业数据仍然受到7月4日假期的影响，因为最新的可用数据仅截至7月11日，我们关注7天移动平均线来消除工作日的噪音。下周的数据将提供更多信息，因为我们将对7月份就业数据进行首次估计。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Initial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4e9e87a0f799e8f644b34bb86bb8b162\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"427\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，首次申请失业救济人数变化不大，为37.3万人。假期可能会给数据增加一些噪音，也可能会扭曲即将发布的数据。此外，汽车公司放弃典型的夏季生产放缓也可能影响数据。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Through the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f231501772b070b9b56c7d72bbdf669\" tg-width=\"972\" tg-height=\"410\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>今年前27周，高倾向业务申请比2019年同期增长了40.5%。随着新企业开始招聘，这应该是近期劳动力需求的积极来源。此外，它还有助于提高生产力。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.</li> </ul> <b>Industrial activity</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，美国人员配备指数较两年前增长8.4%。大幅增长很可能是2019年7月4日假期与2021年7月4日假期时间的结果。也就是说，该指数仍然是临时帮助行业劳动力需求和招聘活动的积极信号。</li></ul><b>工业活动</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Railroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25f288d1140c002ec49a1e54e32cad1a\" tg-width=\"961\" tg-height=\"386\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，铁路运输量反弹，增长10.9%，扭转了前一周5.0%的跌幅。煤炭、机动车辆及零部件以及化学品装车量激增推动了这一反弹。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>In the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.</li>  <li>The oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3a74ffea4fe7cff1d8d3a478c0b77e6b\" tg-width=\"956\" tg-height=\"391\"><b>Real Estate</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>截至7月3日当周，粗钢产量上升1.0%，截至7月10日当周变化不大。目前仅比大流行前的平均水平低2.3%。</li><li>截至7月9日当周，石油和天然气钻井平台数量增加了4个，达到479个。四个新钻井平台中有两个是石油钻井平台，使总数达到378个。尽管需求强劲导致油价高位运行，但这仍远低于大流行前的平均水平。</li></ul><b>房地产</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Mortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b9e12cdd92b67464ab39b619d462364\" tg-width=\"957\" tg-height=\"389\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>抵押贷款购买申请继续下滑，截至7月2日当周下降1.1%。供应有限继续被认为是销量下降的一个关键原因，尽管真正的原因是价格飙升和缺乏负担能力。尽管在疫情复苏初期表现强劲，但住宅行业正在成为增长的拖累。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Office occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6e098a794f4646a15d20287ea186a822\" tg-width=\"964\" tg-height=\"396\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>由于7月4日假期，截至7月7日的一周，办公室入住率下降。在10个主要都会区，平均写字楼入住率下降1.7个百分点至31.0%。随着假期影响的消退，这种情况可能会在下周逆转。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，媒体正在尽其所能为另一场即将到来的令人兴奋的封锁制造恐慌，但至少到目前为止，它未能影响消费者行为。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/us-consumers-so-far-completely-undeterred-delta-variant","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1158066571","content_text":"Despite the recent jump in Delta variant covid cases in the US, economic data continues to show that consumers are actively spending on services and remain undeterred despite the media's best efforts to spark a fresh pre-lockdown panic.\nFirst, a quick update on the current state of the virus in the US.\nAverage daily virus cases jumped by 28.3% to 17.4k during the week ending July 9, and the 7-day moving average of virus cases increased to 17.4k during the week ending July 9. This is the highest level since May 31 and a 28.3% increase from the week ending July 2. As BofA note this morning, from July 2 to July 9, forty states have recorded growth in daily cases and states where vaccine rates are lower are experiencing faster case growth. As shown in the chart below, the bank finds that growth in virus cases and  vaccination rates at the state level exhibit a negative relationship.\nAlong with low vaccine rates, the Delta variant, which is more infectious than earlier strains, has driven the rise in cases of late. Outbreak.info estimates that the variant accounted for 20% of virus cases over the 60 days ending July 7.\nMeantime, vaccine rates have slowed appreciably with the 7-day average of jabs dropping to just about 500k. This was likely due in part to the July 4 holiday; however, shots have been on a downward trend since April.\nRegardless, the US remains one of the most vaccinated countries,with 67.7% of its adult population and 88.7% of those 65 and older having received at least one shot to date.This, BofA concedes, should limit the spread of the Delta variant. However, the bank warns that the uneven vaccination rates across states and within states means that there are areas that have little protection against this highly infectious variant. Moreover, the longer the virus lingers the greater the risk for a vaccine-resistant variant to develop. In short: whether be decree or due to simple population dynamics, Covid-19 could be with us for the foreseeable future.\nIn light of this data,BofA thinks we will continue to see a surge in cases over the near-term, but does not expect restrictions on activity to be broadly imposed again.This means that while the downside risk to the economy is relatively low, the bank's economists will continue to reevaluate this view as things can change in a matter of days when it comes to the virus.\nEconomic activity\nThe NY Fed weekly economic index came in at 9.8% yoy in the week ending July 10, down a bit the 10.0% reading in the prior week.Looking at 2Q, the weekly index from the Fed predicts 2Q growth of 11.1% yoy, which would imply 2.9% qoq saar. This would be a significant deceleration from 6.4% in 1Qand is below current consensus forecasts of 10.0% qoq saar or 13.0% yoy. That said, the NY fed index has tended to undershoot actual growth.\n\nConsumer activity\nAccording to BofA,consumers’ appetite for services has so far been undeterred by the rise in cases.Dining out and air travel both increased by 1.2% and 2.9% respectively during the week ending July 12. Movie box office receipts also remained elevated as F9: the Fast saga was the top earner for a second consecutive week.  Here are the details:\n\nTime spent at home increased during the week ending July 9 given the July 4 holiday. Similarly, visitors to parks surged by 15.7% over the week and visitors to workplaces fell 7.7%. That said, one should ignore these big moves due to the holiday.\nThe 7-day average of daily air passenger traffic increased by 2.9% to 2.032M during the week ending July 12. This was 79.3% of traffic during the same week in 2019, down from 81.1% in the prior week. Leisure travel has rebounded quickly, while corporate and international travel continue to lag. That said, BofA strategists noted that corporate travel is trending higher.International travel remains depressed, and the Delta variant is likely to keep a lid on international travel for the foreseeable future.\n\n\n\nSeated diners on the OpenTable network were down 7.8% from 2019 during the week ending July 12. This was up 1.2% from the prior week as weekly increases in the South and West offset declines in the Northeast and Midwest. We continue to expect dining out to approach 2019 levels, but nascent concerns over the Delta variant could start to affect consumers’ willingness to ear out even if they are vaccinated.\nMotor gasoline demand for the week ending July 2 topped its 2017-2019 weekly average for the first time since the start of the pandemic. This was likely due in part to seasonal effects from the holiday.\n\n\n\nMovie box office receipts remained elevated but declined from last week’s pandemic high. Receipts fell to $115M from $140M withF9: The Fast Sagaremaining the number 1 release. Average receipts per film are running above pre-pandemic levels due to the limited number of movie releases. This suggests demand is strong but supply has some catching up to do.\n\nLabor market\n\nThe employment data tracked by BofA continues to be affected by the holidays as data from Homebase and the American staffing index are only available through July 11 and 3 respectively. Here are some more details:\nThe data on small business employment from Homebase remains affected by the July 4 holiday as the latest available data are only through July 11, and we look at the 7-day moving average to smooth through week-day noise. Next week the data will be more informative as we’ll have the first estimate of the employment figures for the July payroll week.\n\n\n\nInitial jobless claims were little changed at 373k in the week ending July 3rd. It’s possible the holidays added a little noise to the data and could also distort the coming release. Additionally, auto companies forgoing typical summer production slowdowns could also affect the data.\n\n\n\nThrough the first 27 weeks of the year, high propensity business applications are up 40.5% from the same period in 2019. This should be a positive source of labor demand over the near-term as new businesses start hiring. Additionally, it could also help drive productivity.\n\n\n\nThe American Staffing index recorded an 8.4% increase from two years ago during the week ending July 3rd. It’s likely that the outsized increase is a result of the timing of the July 4 holiday in 2019 vs. 2021. That said, the index continues to be a positive signal for labor demand and hiring activity in the temporary help sector.\n\nIndustrial activity\n\nRailroad traffic rebounded with and 10.9% increase during the week ending July 3, more than reversing the 5.0% drop in the prior week. The rebound was driven by a surge in carloads of coal, motor vehicle and parts, and chemicals.\n\n\n\nIn the week ending July 3, raw steel production rose by 1.0% and was little changed in the week ending July 10. It is currently now just 2.3% shy of its pre-pandemic average.\nThe oil and gas rig count increased by four to 479 during the week ending July 9. Two of the four new rigs were oil rigs, bringing the count up to 378. This is well below the pre-pandemic average despite oil prices running at elevated levels on the back of strong demand.\n\nReal Estate\n\nMortgage purchase applications continue to slide, declining by 1.1% in the week ending July 2. Limited supply continues to be cited as a key reason for the decline in sales, although the real reason is soaring prices and lack of affordability. Still after being a strong positive early on in the pandemic recovery, the residential sector is becoming a drag on growth.\n\n\n\nOffice occupancy levels fell during the week ending July 7 due to the July 4 holiday. Across 10 major metro areas, average office occupancy fell by 1.7ppt to 31.0%. This is likely to reverse in the following week as the holiday effects fade.\n\n\nIn short, the media is doing all in its power to drum up panic for what appears to be another upcoming stimmy-triggering lockdown, but at least so far it is failing to impact consumer behavior.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808365315,"gmtCreate":1627558469737,"gmtModify":1633763826892,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Getting unpopular","listText":"Getting unpopular","text":"Getting 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anyway","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/144419649","repostId":"1188807077","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188807077","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626308530,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188807077?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 08:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Key Moderate Dems Not Yet On Board With $3.5 Trillion Spending Package<blockquote>主要温和派民主党尚未接受3.5万亿美元的支出计划</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188807077","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Though, to be sure, the deal isn't nearly as close to 'done' as Chuck Schumer said it was...","content":"<p><b>Update (1530ET)</b>: Earlier, WaPo reported that some of the proposed taxes to offset the Biden Administration's $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" plan, might have a climate component. Hours, later CNBC, Bloomberg and others are reporting that the plan might include a carbon border tax, essentially a tariff that would apply to \"carbon-intensive\" imports. The plan would punish countries with weaker climate policies.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1530ET）</b>：早些时候，WaPo报道称，抵消拜登政府3.5万亿美元“人类基础设施”计划的一些拟议税收可能含有气候成分。几个小时后，美国消费者新闻与商业频道、彭博社和其他媒体报道称，该计划可能包括碳边境税，本质上是一种适用于“碳密集型”进口的关税。该计划将惩罚气候政策较弱的国家。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1310ET):</b>As it turns out, Manchin isn't the only moderate Dem who is still undecided on the $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" package that Dems are trying to pass using budget rules to push it through on a party-line vote.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1310ET）：</b>事实证明，曼钦并不是唯一一个对3.5万亿美元的“人力基础设施”一揽子计划犹豫不决的温和派民主党人，民主党人正试图利用预算规则在党派投票中推动该计划通过。</blockquote></p><p> Still, to accomplish this, they need all 50 Dems in the Senate on board. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Joe Manchin hadn't yet given his final sign-off. And apparently, he's not alone: Bloomberg just reported that Jon Tester of Montana, another Moderate Dem, is not yet on board with the bill.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，为了实现这一目标，他们需要参议院所有50名民主党人都加入进来。早些时候，我们报道过参议员乔·曼钦还没有给出他的最终签名。显然，他并不孤单：彭博刚刚报道说，另一位温和派民主党人、蒙大拿州的乔恩·特斯还没有同意该法案。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1140ET):</b>Following comments from a team of Goldman analysts who warned in a note to clients published this morning that the Democrats' new spending plan (and the tax hikes they say will accompany it) is a \"downside risk to our fiscal assumptions\". Since centrist Democrats likely won't accept more than $1.5 trillion in additional taxes, \"this would likely amount to less than the $3 trillion in additional spending we have been assuming.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1140ET）：</b>高盛分析师团队在今天上午发布的一份给客户的报告中警告称，民主党的新支出计划（以及他们所说的随之而来的增税）是“我们财政假设的下行风险”。由于中间派民主党人可能不会接受超过1.5万亿美元的额外税收，“这可能低于我们一直假设的3万亿美元额外支出。”</blockquote></p><p> They expanded on their view in five points:</p><p><blockquote>他们从五个方面阐述了自己的观点：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The outlines of the Senate's budget resolution have emerged. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has announced that Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee have agreed to a top line spending increase of $3.5 trillion. In a separate comment, Sen. Warner, who sits on the committee, told reporters the resolution would be \"fully paid for\", i.e., that it would not increase the deficit.</li>  <li>If the resolution does not provide for an increase in the deficit, the spending increase might be limited to however much new revenue can be agreed to. The resolution only sets the upper limit on the spending increase that Democrats can pass using the reconciliation process; if a smaller set of tax increases is all that can win support, the spending increase might need to be dialed back. This is an area where the details of the resolution matter and at this point the details are still very unclear.</li>  <li>It is very unlikely that congressional Democrats will raise taxes by $3.5 trillion over ten years, we believe. Our expectation has been that congressional Democrats might be able to agree on tax increases worth around $1.5 trillion over ten years. This would include a 25% corporate rate and a 28% long-term capital gains rate, among other changes.</li>  <li>This is an opening bid and likely to change. Centrist Democrats like Sen. Manchin and Sinema are not on the Budget Committee and are not part of this agreement. We would expect further changes to the proposed resolution—including a lower spending total—before they sign on. That process will play out over the next few days. Assuming an agreement this week, the Senate Budget Committee could potentially pass the resolution next week, setting up a Senate vote in late July or early August. That would set the stage for the Senate to begin work on the detailed reconciliation bill, which is unlikely to pass until Q4 and possibly not until very late in the year.</li>  <li>The $579bn bipartisan infrastructure package is not directly related to the emerging budget resolution, but faces similar issues. While a bipartisan group has agreed with the White House to boost spending by $579bn, the policies they propose to pay for the package are unlikely to generate nearly enough in budgetary savings. The most likely outcome, we think, is for the bill's authors to scale back the spending boost.</li> </ol> Now, the Washington Post is reporting more details from the plan, they more or less confirmed what we said below - namely, that while negotiators have signed off on the package, the leadership still needs to make sure all 50 Democratic senators support the plan.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>参议院预算决议的轮廓已经浮出水面。参议院多数党领袖舒默宣布，参议院预算委员会的民主党人已同意将最高支出增加3.5万亿美元。在另一份评论中，该委员会成员参议员华纳告诉记者，该决议将“全额支付”，即不会增加赤字。</li><li>如果决议没有规定增加赤字，支出的增加可能会被限制在可以同意的新收入的范围内。该决议仅设定了民主党人利用和解程序可以通过的支出增长上限；如果一系列较小的增税措施就能赢得支持，那么支出增长可能需要减少。这是一个决议细节很重要的领域，在这一点上，细节仍然非常不清楚。</li><li>我们认为，国会民主党人不太可能在十年内增税3.5万亿美元。我们的预期是，国会民主党人可能能够就十年内价值约1.5万亿美元的增税达成一致。这将包括25%的公司利率和28%的长期资本收益率等变化。</li><li>这是开标，可能会发生变化。像参议员曼钦和西内马这样的中间派民主党人不在预算委员会，也不是这项协议的一部分。我们预计在他们签署之前会对拟议的决议进行进一步修改，包括降低总支出。这一过程将在未来几天内结束。假设本周达成协议，参议院预算委员会可能会在下周通过该决议，并在7月底或8月初进行参议院投票。这将为参议院开始制定详细的和解法案奠定基础，该法案不太可能在第四季度之前获得通过，也可能要到今年年底。</li><li>5790亿美元的两党基础设施一揽子计划与新出现的预算决议没有直接关系，但面临着类似的问题。尽管一个两党团体已与白宫达成协议，将支出增加5790亿美元，但他们提出的为该计划买单的政策不太可能带来足够的预算节省。我们认为，最有可能的结果是该法案的作者缩减支出增长。</li></ol>现在，《华盛顿邮报》报道了该计划的更多细节，他们或多或少证实了我们下面所说的——即，虽然谈判代表已经签署了该计划，但领导层仍需要确保所有50名民主党参议员都支持该计划。</blockquote></p><p>   Senate Democratic negotiators agreed on the framework Tuesday evening but they still must win the endorsement of all 50 members to pass the measure through their chamber in a process known as budget reconciliation  TheWaPo reportalso included some new details about the Democrats' tax plans, which mostly focus on compliance.</p><p><blockquote>参议院民主党谈判代表周二晚上就该框架达成一致，但他们仍必须赢得所有50名议员的支持，才能在众议院通过该措施，这一过程被称为预算协调。WAPO报告还包括有关民主党税收计划的一些新细节，其中主要集中在合规性上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>To pay for these changes, Congressional Democrats are pursuing a slew of tax hikes on the rich and corporations, as well as major changes to the IRS to close the “tax gap” — the difference between what taxpayers owe and what they pay. Other major new sources of revenue include raising the top marginal tax rate, increasing the corporate tax rate, and changes to the international tax system, among other potential measures, the people said.</li>  <li>The specifics of these programs are expected to be written by Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee. Lawmakers extensively discussed including new bank reporting requirements, the four people said, which would require major financial institutions to send reams of data to the IRS to help the tax agency identify tax evasion and fraud. But it was unclear if that would be included in the agreement.</li>  <li>Some Congressional Democrats believe stepping up IRS enforcement help collect as much as $1 trillion in uncollected taxes, although many tax experts are skeptical about the extent of savings that would materialize from the plan. The IRS changes were pushed in negotiations by Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), two of the people said. Warner told reporters on Tuesday the package would be paid for.</li> </ul> There have also been whispers that capital gains tax hikes might also be in play. Perhaps that's why stocks slipped ahead of Powell's testimony.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了支付这些变化，国会民主党人正在寻求对富人和企业进行一系列增税，并对国税局进行重大改革，以缩小“税收差距”——纳税人所欠与所付之间的差异。知情人士称，其他主要的新收入来源包括提高最高边际税率、提高企业税率、改变国际税收体系等潜在措施。</li><li>这些计划的细节预计将由参议院财政委员会和众议院筹款委员会的民主党议员撰写。四位人士表示，立法者广泛讨论了新的银行报告要求，这将要求主要金融机构向国税局发送大量数据，以帮助税务机构识别逃税和欺诈行为。但尚不清楚这是否会包含在协议中。</li><li>一些国会民主党人认为，加强国税局的执法有助于征收多达1万亿美元的未征收税款，尽管许多税务专家对该计划将实现的节省程度持怀疑态度。两位知情人士说，国税局的改革是由弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·R·华纳（Mark R.Warner）在谈判中推动的。华纳周二告诉记者，该计划将得到支付。</li></ul>也有传言称资本利得税上调也可能在起作用。也许这就是鲍威尔作证前股市下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712a5c0f564109f7a24d9f646c240888\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1120ET):</b>The Democratic Congressional leadership celebrated their 'victory' in striking an intra-party deal to try and pass a $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" bill last night, but Sen. Joe Manchin made clear on Wednesday morning that while the deal has won the support of the leadership and the Democrats' progressive left flank, it's not exactly a done deal - since Manchin hasn't actually read the thing yet.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1120ET）：</b>民主党国会领导层庆祝他们昨晚达成党内协议的“胜利”，试图通过一项3.5万亿美元的“人类基础设施”法案，但参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)周三上午明确表示，虽然该协议赢得了领导层和民主党进步左翼的支持，但这并不完全是板上钉钉的事情——因为曼钦还没有真正读过这本书。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday, the West Virginia Sen. and critical swing vote said he's open to the deal, which would be entirely paid for by tax hike offsets.</p><p><blockquote>这位西弗吉尼亚州参议员和关键摇摆投票周三在国会大厦对记者表示，他对该协议持开放态度，该协议将完全通过增税抵消来支付。</blockquote></p><p> Notice, according to the quote below, Manchin merely stated that he's \"open\" to the deal - not exactly a ringing endorsement. It's just the latest example of eager Democratic leaders jumping the gun to try and please their party's new 'leader', President Biden. It's becoming increasingly clear that the leadership hasn't quite finished whipping the votes.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，根据下面的引用，曼钦只是表示他对这笔交易“持开放态度”——并不完全是一个响亮的认可。这只是急切的民主党领导人操之过急，试图取悦他们党的新“领导人”拜登总统的最新例子。越来越明显的是，领导层还没有完全赢得选票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I heard about it this morning or late last night from my staff,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday. “So, we’re anxious to basically review it. They worked hard on it, we want to see it. Also, I’ve been very clear that I want to see the pay-fors and make sure that whatever we do is globally competitive.\"</p><p><blockquote>曼钦周二告诉记者：“我今天早上或昨晚深夜从我的员工那里听说了这件事。所以，我们急于基本上审查它。他们努力工作，我们希望看到它。此外，我已经非常明确地表示，我希望看到回报，并确保我们所做的一切都具有全球竞争力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I’m open to looking at everything they provide. OK? They’re going to have to provide all the information that’s going to be needed,” he added. “They worked hard, they should have a proposal.”</p><p><blockquote>“我愿意考虑他们提供的一切。好吗？他们必须提供所有需要的信息，”他补充道。“他们努力工作，他们应该有一个提议。”</blockquote></p><p> But that didn't stop media outlets likethe Hillfrom celebrating Manchin's comment as some kind of commitment, while others pointed out that he has very clearly not yet committed to backing the deal.</p><p><blockquote>但这并没有阻止《国会山报》等媒体将曼钦的评论视为某种承诺，而其他人则指出，他显然尚未承诺支持该交易。</blockquote></p><p> According to Manchin, he hasn't even read it yet.</p><p><blockquote>据曼钦说，他甚至还没有读过。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> Months after the Biden Administration and its Congressional alliesleaked the first details of President Biden's massive two-part \"Build Back Better\" infrastructure plan, Chuck Schumer, the Democrats' leader in the Senate, just announced that Democrats have united behind a $3.5 trillion \"infrastructure\" spending package, which they can now pass using special budget rules allowing them to circumvent the filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>在拜登政府及其国会盟友泄露拜登总统由两部分组成的大规模“重建得更好”基础设施计划的第一个细节几个月后，参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默刚刚宣布，民主党已团结起来支持3.5万亿美元的“基础设施”支出计划，他们现在可以使用特殊预算规则通过该计划，使他们能够绕过阻挠。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3739b1c2464b9ee3412161ca0481a0a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In a late-night announcement Tuesday, Schumer said the Budget Committee had reached an agreement to allot $3.5 trillion for a spending package that would complete President Biden’s infrastructure plan.</p><p><blockquote>舒默在周二深夜的一份声明中表示，预算委员会已达成协议，为一项支出计划拨款3.5万亿美元，以完成拜登总统的基础设施计划。</blockquote></p><p>   \"The Budget Committee has come to an agreement,\" Sen. Schumer told reporters Tuesday night following a closed-door meeting with Democratic lawmakers.  The deal adds to the $600 billion package of infrastructure measures that Biden has struck with Republicans.</p><p><blockquote>“预算委员会已经达成协议，”参议员舒默周二晚上在与民主党议员举行闭门会议后告诉记者。该协议是拜登与共和党达成的6000亿美元一揽子基础设施措施的补充。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"You add that to that the $600 billion in a bipartisan plan and you get to $4.1 trillion, which is very, very close to what President Biden has asked us for,\" Schumer said. \"Every major program that President Biden has asked us for is funded in a robust way.\"  The package will include such \"infrastructure\" priorities like expanding Medicare, addressing climate change, expanding childcare (after the administration just approved a new $300 handout for couples with children)&nbsp; and education. The Democrats have famously deemed all this \"human infrastructure\", which Republicans have vowed to reject.</p><p><blockquote>舒默说：“再加上两党计划中的6000亿美元，就会达到4.1万亿美元，这非常非常接近拜登总统向我们提出的要求。”“拜登总统要求我们实施的每一个重大项目都得到了充足的资助。”该计划将包括“基础设施”优先事项，如扩大医疗保险、应对气候变化、扩大儿童保育（在政府刚刚批准为有孩子的夫妇提供300美元的新施舍后）和教育。众所周知，民主党人认为所有这些都是“人类基础设施”，而共和党人发誓要拒绝这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Democrats will meet with Biden Wednesday, the majority leader said following the closed-door meeting.</p><p><blockquote>多数党领袖在闭门会议后表示，民主党人将于周三会见拜登。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We are very proud of this plan. We know we have a long road to go. We're going to get this done for the sake of making average Americans' lives a whole lot better,\" Schumer said  Previously, Schumer has promised to hold votes on both pieces of legislation before the Senate breaks for its August recess, which amounts to a pretty aggressive timeline, especially since some Republicans might rethink their support for the earlier measure now that Democrats are pushing ahead with the bigger multi-trillion-dollar package.</p><p><blockquote>舒默表示：“我们对这项计划感到非常自豪。我们知道我们还有很长的路要走。为了让普通美国人的生活变得更好，我们将完成这项工作。”此前，舒默曾承诺在参议院八月份休会之前就这两项立法进行投票，这相当于一个相当激进的时间表，特别是因为现在民主党正在推进更大的数万亿美元一揽子计划，一些共和党人可能会重新考虑他们对早期措施的支持。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the bipartisan deal struck by Biden authorizes a total of $1.2 trillion in spending over eight years. Meanwhile, the budget resolution necessary to pass the Democratic-only bill will require some more maneuvering.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，拜登达成的两党协议授权在八年内总共支出1.2万亿美元。与此同时，通过民主党专用法案所需的预算决议将需要更多的操作。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Democrats want to bring the bipartisan infrastructure&nbsp;bill to the floor as soon as next week, though negotiators have warned that is an ambitious pace. Democrats didn't say on Tuesday night when specifically they would be ready to take the budget resolution to the floor. To pass both the budget resolution and a&nbsp;subsequent&nbsp;$3 to $5-trillion infrastructure bill through the Senate Democrats will need total unity from all 50 of their members. Democrats declined to say on Tuesday night if they had unified support.</p><p><blockquote>参议院民主党人希望最早在下周将两党基础设施法案提交议会，尽管谈判代表警告说这是一个雄心勃勃的步伐。民主党人周二晚上没有透露他们何时准备好将预算决议提交议会。为了在参议院通过预算决议和随后的3至5万亿美元基础设施法案，民主党需要所有50名议员的完全团结。民主党人周二晚上拒绝透露他们是否得到了统一的支持。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Key Moderate Dems Not Yet On Board With $3.5 Trillion Spending Package<blockquote>主要温和派民主党尚未接受3.5万亿美元的支出计划</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nKey Moderate Dems Not Yet On Board With $3.5 Trillion Spending Package<blockquote>主要温和派民主党尚未接受3.5万亿美元的支出计划</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 08:22</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Update (1530ET)</b>: Earlier, WaPo reported that some of the proposed taxes to offset the Biden Administration's $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" plan, might have a climate component. Hours, later CNBC, Bloomberg and others are reporting that the plan might include a carbon border tax, essentially a tariff that would apply to \"carbon-intensive\" imports. The plan would punish countries with weaker climate policies.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1530ET）</b>：早些时候，WaPo报道称，抵消拜登政府3.5万亿美元“人类基础设施”计划的一些拟议税收可能含有气候成分。几个小时后，美国消费者新闻与商业频道、彭博社和其他媒体报道称，该计划可能包括碳边境税，本质上是一种适用于“碳密集型”进口的关税。该计划将惩罚气候政策较弱的国家。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1310ET):</b>As it turns out, Manchin isn't the only moderate Dem who is still undecided on the $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" package that Dems are trying to pass using budget rules to push it through on a party-line vote.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1310ET）：</b>事实证明，曼钦并不是唯一一个对3.5万亿美元的“人力基础设施”一揽子计划犹豫不决的温和派民主党人，民主党人正试图利用预算规则在党派投票中推动该计划通过。</blockquote></p><p> Still, to accomplish this, they need all 50 Dems in the Senate on board. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Joe Manchin hadn't yet given his final sign-off. And apparently, he's not alone: Bloomberg just reported that Jon Tester of Montana, another Moderate Dem, is not yet on board with the bill.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，为了实现这一目标，他们需要参议院所有50名民主党人都加入进来。早些时候，我们报道过参议员乔·曼钦还没有给出他的最终签名。显然，他并不孤单：彭博刚刚报道说，另一位温和派民主党人、蒙大拿州的乔恩·特斯还没有同意该法案。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1140ET):</b>Following comments from a team of Goldman analysts who warned in a note to clients published this morning that the Democrats' new spending plan (and the tax hikes they say will accompany it) is a \"downside risk to our fiscal assumptions\". Since centrist Democrats likely won't accept more than $1.5 trillion in additional taxes, \"this would likely amount to less than the $3 trillion in additional spending we have been assuming.\"</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1140ET）：</b>高盛分析师团队在今天上午发布的一份给客户的报告中警告称，民主党的新支出计划（以及他们所说的随之而来的增税）是“我们财政假设的下行风险”。由于中间派民主党人可能不会接受超过1.5万亿美元的额外税收，“这可能低于我们一直假设的3万亿美元额外支出。”</blockquote></p><p> They expanded on their view in five points:</p><p><blockquote>他们从五个方面阐述了自己的观点：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>The outlines of the Senate's budget resolution have emerged. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has announced that Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee have agreed to a top line spending increase of $3.5 trillion. In a separate comment, Sen. Warner, who sits on the committee, told reporters the resolution would be \"fully paid for\", i.e., that it would not increase the deficit.</li>  <li>If the resolution does not provide for an increase in the deficit, the spending increase might be limited to however much new revenue can be agreed to. The resolution only sets the upper limit on the spending increase that Democrats can pass using the reconciliation process; if a smaller set of tax increases is all that can win support, the spending increase might need to be dialed back. This is an area where the details of the resolution matter and at this point the details are still very unclear.</li>  <li>It is very unlikely that congressional Democrats will raise taxes by $3.5 trillion over ten years, we believe. Our expectation has been that congressional Democrats might be able to agree on tax increases worth around $1.5 trillion over ten years. This would include a 25% corporate rate and a 28% long-term capital gains rate, among other changes.</li>  <li>This is an opening bid and likely to change. Centrist Democrats like Sen. Manchin and Sinema are not on the Budget Committee and are not part of this agreement. We would expect further changes to the proposed resolution—including a lower spending total—before they sign on. That process will play out over the next few days. Assuming an agreement this week, the Senate Budget Committee could potentially pass the resolution next week, setting up a Senate vote in late July or early August. That would set the stage for the Senate to begin work on the detailed reconciliation bill, which is unlikely to pass until Q4 and possibly not until very late in the year.</li>  <li>The $579bn bipartisan infrastructure package is not directly related to the emerging budget resolution, but faces similar issues. While a bipartisan group has agreed with the White House to boost spending by $579bn, the policies they propose to pay for the package are unlikely to generate nearly enough in budgetary savings. The most likely outcome, we think, is for the bill's authors to scale back the spending boost.</li> </ol> Now, the Washington Post is reporting more details from the plan, they more or less confirmed what we said below - namely, that while negotiators have signed off on the package, the leadership still needs to make sure all 50 Democratic senators support the plan.</p><p><blockquote><ol><li>参议院预算决议的轮廓已经浮出水面。参议院多数党领袖舒默宣布，参议院预算委员会的民主党人已同意将最高支出增加3.5万亿美元。在另一份评论中，该委员会成员参议员华纳告诉记者，该决议将“全额支付”，即不会增加赤字。</li><li>如果决议没有规定增加赤字，支出的增加可能会被限制在可以同意的新收入的范围内。该决议仅设定了民主党人利用和解程序可以通过的支出增长上限；如果一系列较小的增税措施就能赢得支持，那么支出增长可能需要减少。这是一个决议细节很重要的领域，在这一点上，细节仍然非常不清楚。</li><li>我们认为，国会民主党人不太可能在十年内增税3.5万亿美元。我们的预期是，国会民主党人可能能够就十年内价值约1.5万亿美元的增税达成一致。这将包括25%的公司利率和28%的长期资本收益率等变化。</li><li>这是开标，可能会发生变化。像参议员曼钦和西内马这样的中间派民主党人不在预算委员会，也不是这项协议的一部分。我们预计在他们签署之前会对拟议的决议进行进一步修改，包括降低总支出。这一过程将在未来几天内结束。假设本周达成协议，参议院预算委员会可能会在下周通过该决议，并在7月底或8月初进行参议院投票。这将为参议院开始制定详细的和解法案奠定基础，该法案不太可能在第四季度之前获得通过，也可能要到今年年底。</li><li>5790亿美元的两党基础设施一揽子计划与新出现的预算决议没有直接关系，但面临着类似的问题。尽管一个两党团体已与白宫达成协议，将支出增加5790亿美元，但他们提出的为该计划买单的政策不太可能带来足够的预算节省。我们认为，最有可能的结果是该法案的作者缩减支出增长。</li></ol>现在，《华盛顿邮报》报道了该计划的更多细节，他们或多或少证实了我们下面所说的——即，虽然谈判代表已经签署了该计划，但领导层仍需要确保所有50名民主党参议员都支持该计划。</blockquote></p><p>   Senate Democratic negotiators agreed on the framework Tuesday evening but they still must win the endorsement of all 50 members to pass the measure through their chamber in a process known as budget reconciliation  TheWaPo reportalso included some new details about the Democrats' tax plans, which mostly focus on compliance.</p><p><blockquote>参议院民主党谈判代表周二晚上就该框架达成一致，但他们仍必须赢得所有50名议员的支持，才能在众议院通过该措施，这一过程被称为预算协调。WAPO报告还包括有关民主党税收计划的一些新细节，其中主要集中在合规性上。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li>To pay for these changes, Congressional Democrats are pursuing a slew of tax hikes on the rich and corporations, as well as major changes to the IRS to close the “tax gap” — the difference between what taxpayers owe and what they pay. Other major new sources of revenue include raising the top marginal tax rate, increasing the corporate tax rate, and changes to the international tax system, among other potential measures, the people said.</li>  <li>The specifics of these programs are expected to be written by Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee. Lawmakers extensively discussed including new bank reporting requirements, the four people said, which would require major financial institutions to send reams of data to the IRS to help the tax agency identify tax evasion and fraud. But it was unclear if that would be included in the agreement.</li>  <li>Some Congressional Democrats believe stepping up IRS enforcement help collect as much as $1 trillion in uncollected taxes, although many tax experts are skeptical about the extent of savings that would materialize from the plan. The IRS changes were pushed in negotiations by Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), two of the people said. Warner told reporters on Tuesday the package would be paid for.</li> </ul> There have also been whispers that capital gains tax hikes might also be in play. Perhaps that's why stocks slipped ahead of Powell's testimony.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>为了支付这些变化，国会民主党人正在寻求对富人和企业进行一系列增税，并对国税局进行重大改革，以缩小“税收差距”——纳税人所欠与所付之间的差异。知情人士称，其他主要的新收入来源包括提高最高边际税率、提高企业税率、改变国际税收体系等潜在措施。</li><li>这些计划的细节预计将由参议院财政委员会和众议院筹款委员会的民主党议员撰写。四位人士表示，立法者广泛讨论了新的银行报告要求，这将要求主要金融机构向国税局发送大量数据，以帮助税务机构识别逃税和欺诈行为。但尚不清楚这是否会包含在协议中。</li><li>一些国会民主党人认为，加强国税局的执法有助于征收多达1万亿美元的未征收税款，尽管许多税务专家对该计划将实现的节省程度持怀疑态度。两位知情人士说，国税局的改革是由弗吉尼亚州民主党参议员马克·R·华纳（Mark R.Warner）在谈判中推动的。华纳周二告诉记者，该计划将得到支付。</li></ul>也有传言称资本利得税上调也可能在起作用。也许这就是鲍威尔作证前股市下跌的原因。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/712a5c0f564109f7a24d9f646c240888\" tg-width=\"512\" tg-height=\"355\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> <b>Update (1120ET):</b>The Democratic Congressional leadership celebrated their 'victory' in striking an intra-party deal to try and pass a $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" bill last night, but Sen. Joe Manchin made clear on Wednesday morning that while the deal has won the support of the leadership and the Democrats' progressive left flank, it's not exactly a done deal - since Manchin hasn't actually read the thing yet.</p><p><blockquote><b>更新（1120ET）：</b>民主党国会领导层庆祝他们昨晚达成党内协议的“胜利”，试图通过一项3.5万亿美元的“人类基础设施”法案，但参议员乔·曼钦(Joe Manchin)周三上午明确表示，虽然该协议赢得了领导层和民主党进步左翼的支持，但这并不完全是板上钉钉的事情——因为曼钦还没有真正读过这本书。</blockquote></p><p> Speaking to reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday, the West Virginia Sen. and critical swing vote said he's open to the deal, which would be entirely paid for by tax hike offsets.</p><p><blockquote>这位西弗吉尼亚州参议员和关键摇摆投票周三在国会大厦对记者表示，他对该协议持开放态度，该协议将完全通过增税抵消来支付。</blockquote></p><p> Notice, according to the quote below, Manchin merely stated that he's \"open\" to the deal - not exactly a ringing endorsement. It's just the latest example of eager Democratic leaders jumping the gun to try and please their party's new 'leader', President Biden. It's becoming increasingly clear that the leadership hasn't quite finished whipping the votes.</p><p><blockquote>请注意，根据下面的引用，曼钦只是表示他对这笔交易“持开放态度”——并不完全是一个响亮的认可。这只是急切的民主党领导人操之过急，试图取悦他们党的新“领导人”拜登总统的最新例子。越来越明显的是，领导层还没有完全赢得选票。</blockquote></p><p> \"I heard about it this morning or late last night from my staff,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday. “So, we’re anxious to basically review it. They worked hard on it, we want to see it. Also, I’ve been very clear that I want to see the pay-fors and make sure that whatever we do is globally competitive.\"</p><p><blockquote>曼钦周二告诉记者：“我今天早上或昨晚深夜从我的员工那里听说了这件事。所以，我们急于基本上审查它。他们努力工作，我们希望看到它。此外，我已经非常明确地表示，我希望看到回报，并确保我们所做的一切都具有全球竞争力。”</blockquote></p><p> \"I’m open to looking at everything they provide. OK? They’re going to have to provide all the information that’s going to be needed,” he added. “They worked hard, they should have a proposal.”</p><p><blockquote>“我愿意考虑他们提供的一切。好吗？他们必须提供所有需要的信息，”他补充道。“他们努力工作，他们应该有一个提议。”</blockquote></p><p> But that didn't stop media outlets likethe Hillfrom celebrating Manchin's comment as some kind of commitment, while others pointed out that he has very clearly not yet committed to backing the deal.</p><p><blockquote>但这并没有阻止《国会山报》等媒体将曼钦的评论视为某种承诺，而其他人则指出，他显然尚未承诺支持该交易。</blockquote></p><p> According to Manchin, he hasn't even read it yet.</p><p><blockquote>据曼钦说，他甚至还没有读过。</blockquote></p><p> * * *</p><p><blockquote>***</blockquote></p><p> Months after the Biden Administration and its Congressional alliesleaked the first details of President Biden's massive two-part \"Build Back Better\" infrastructure plan, Chuck Schumer, the Democrats' leader in the Senate, just announced that Democrats have united behind a $3.5 trillion \"infrastructure\" spending package, which they can now pass using special budget rules allowing them to circumvent the filibuster.</p><p><blockquote>在拜登政府及其国会盟友泄露拜登总统由两部分组成的大规模“重建得更好”基础设施计划的第一个细节几个月后，参议院民主党领袖查克·舒默刚刚宣布，民主党已团结起来支持3.5万亿美元的“基础设施”支出计划，他们现在可以使用特殊预算规则通过该计划，使他们能够绕过阻挠。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f3739b1c2464b9ee3412161ca0481a0a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"314\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In a late-night announcement Tuesday, Schumer said the Budget Committee had reached an agreement to allot $3.5 trillion for a spending package that would complete President Biden’s infrastructure plan.</p><p><blockquote>舒默在周二深夜的一份声明中表示，预算委员会已达成协议，为一项支出计划拨款3.5万亿美元，以完成拜登总统的基础设施计划。</blockquote></p><p>   \"The Budget Committee has come to an agreement,\" Sen. Schumer told reporters Tuesday night following a closed-door meeting with Democratic lawmakers.  The deal adds to the $600 billion package of infrastructure measures that Biden has struck with Republicans.</p><p><blockquote>“预算委员会已经达成协议，”参议员舒默周二晚上在与民主党议员举行闭门会议后告诉记者。该协议是拜登与共和党达成的6000亿美元一揽子基础设施措施的补充。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>   \"You add that to that the $600 billion in a bipartisan plan and you get to $4.1 trillion, which is very, very close to what President Biden has asked us for,\" Schumer said. \"Every major program that President Biden has asked us for is funded in a robust way.\"  The package will include such \"infrastructure\" priorities like expanding Medicare, addressing climate change, expanding childcare (after the administration just approved a new $300 handout for couples with children)&nbsp; and education. The Democrats have famously deemed all this \"human infrastructure\", which Republicans have vowed to reject.</p><p><blockquote>舒默说：“再加上两党计划中的6000亿美元，就会达到4.1万亿美元，这非常非常接近拜登总统向我们提出的要求。”“拜登总统要求我们实施的每一个重大项目都得到了充足的资助。”该计划将包括“基础设施”优先事项，如扩大医疗保险、应对气候变化、扩大儿童保育（在政府刚刚批准为有孩子的夫妇提供300美元的新施舍后）和教育。众所周知，民主党人认为所有这些都是“人类基础设施”，而共和党人发誓要拒绝这一点。</blockquote></p><p> Democrats will meet with Biden Wednesday, the majority leader said following the closed-door meeting.</p><p><blockquote>多数党领袖在闭门会议后表示，民主党人将于周三会见拜登。</blockquote></p><p>   \"We are very proud of this plan. We know we have a long road to go. We're going to get this done for the sake of making average Americans' lives a whole lot better,\" Schumer said  Previously, Schumer has promised to hold votes on both pieces of legislation before the Senate breaks for its August recess, which amounts to a pretty aggressive timeline, especially since some Republicans might rethink their support for the earlier measure now that Democrats are pushing ahead with the bigger multi-trillion-dollar package.</p><p><blockquote>舒默表示：“我们对这项计划感到非常自豪。我们知道我们还有很长的路要走。为了让普通美国人的生活变得更好，我们将完成这项工作。”此前，舒默曾承诺在参议院八月份休会之前就这两项立法进行投票，这相当于一个相当激进的时间表，特别是因为现在民主党正在推进更大的数万亿美元一揽子计划，一些共和党人可能会重新考虑他们对早期措施的支持。</blockquote></p><p> To be clear, the bipartisan deal struck by Biden authorizes a total of $1.2 trillion in spending over eight years. Meanwhile, the budget resolution necessary to pass the Democratic-only bill will require some more maneuvering.</p><p><blockquote>需要明确的是，拜登达成的两党协议授权在八年内总共支出1.2万亿美元。与此同时，通过民主党专用法案所需的预算决议将需要更多的操作。</blockquote></p><p> Senate Democrats want to bring the bipartisan infrastructure&nbsp;bill to the floor as soon as next week, though negotiators have warned that is an ambitious pace. Democrats didn't say on Tuesday night when specifically they would be ready to take the budget resolution to the floor. To pass both the budget resolution and a&nbsp;subsequent&nbsp;$3 to $5-trillion infrastructure bill through the Senate Democrats will need total unity from all 50 of their members. Democrats declined to say on Tuesday night if they had unified support.</p><p><blockquote>参议院民主党人希望最早在下周将两党基础设施法案提交议会，尽管谈判代表警告说这是一个雄心勃勃的步伐。民主党人周二晚上没有透露他们何时准备好将预算决议提交议会。为了在参议院通过预算决议和随后的3至5万亿美元基础设施法案，民主党需要所有50名议员的完全团结。民主党人周二晚上拒绝透露他们是否得到了统一的支持。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-strike-deal-35-trillion-human-infrastructure-package\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/political/democrats-strike-deal-35-trillion-human-infrastructure-package","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188807077","content_text":"Update (1530ET): Earlier, WaPo reported that some of the proposed taxes to offset the Biden Administration's $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" plan, might have a climate component. Hours, later CNBC, Bloomberg and others are reporting that the plan might include a carbon border tax, essentially a tariff that would apply to \"carbon-intensive\" imports. The plan would punish countries with weaker climate policies.\n* * *\nUpdate (1310ET):As it turns out, Manchin isn't the only moderate Dem who is still undecided on the $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" package that Dems are trying to pass using budget rules to push it through on a party-line vote.\nStill, to accomplish this, they need all 50 Dems in the Senate on board. Earlier, we reported that Sen. Joe Manchin hadn't yet given his final sign-off. And apparently, he's not alone: Bloomberg just reported that Jon Tester of Montana, another Moderate Dem, is not yet on board with the bill.\n* * *\nUpdate (1140ET):Following comments from a team of Goldman analysts who warned in a note to clients published this morning that the Democrats' new spending plan (and the tax hikes they say will accompany it) is a \"downside risk to our fiscal assumptions\". Since centrist Democrats likely won't accept more than $1.5 trillion in additional taxes, \"this would likely amount to less than the $3 trillion in additional spending we have been assuming.\"\nThey expanded on their view in five points:\n\nThe outlines of the Senate's budget resolution have emerged. Senate Majority Leader Schumer has announced that Democrats on the Senate Budget Committee have agreed to a top line spending increase of $3.5 trillion. In a separate comment, Sen. Warner, who sits on the committee, told reporters the resolution would be \"fully paid for\", i.e., that it would not increase the deficit.\nIf the resolution does not provide for an increase in the deficit, the spending increase might be limited to however much new revenue can be agreed to. The resolution only sets the upper limit on the spending increase that Democrats can pass using the reconciliation process; if a smaller set of tax increases is all that can win support, the spending increase might need to be dialed back. This is an area where the details of the resolution matter and at this point the details are still very unclear.\nIt is very unlikely that congressional Democrats will raise taxes by $3.5 trillion over ten years, we believe. Our expectation has been that congressional Democrats might be able to agree on tax increases worth around $1.5 trillion over ten years. This would include a 25% corporate rate and a 28% long-term capital gains rate, among other changes.\nThis is an opening bid and likely to change. Centrist Democrats like Sen. Manchin and Sinema are not on the Budget Committee and are not part of this agreement. We would expect further changes to the proposed resolution—including a lower spending total—before they sign on. That process will play out over the next few days. Assuming an agreement this week, the Senate Budget Committee could potentially pass the resolution next week, setting up a Senate vote in late July or early August. That would set the stage for the Senate to begin work on the detailed reconciliation bill, which is unlikely to pass until Q4 and possibly not until very late in the year.\nThe $579bn bipartisan infrastructure package is not directly related to the emerging budget resolution, but faces similar issues. While a bipartisan group has agreed with the White House to boost spending by $579bn, the policies they propose to pay for the package are unlikely to generate nearly enough in budgetary savings. The most likely outcome, we think, is for the bill's authors to scale back the spending boost.\n\nNow, the Washington Post is reporting more details from the plan, they more or less confirmed what we said below - namely, that while negotiators have signed off on the package, the leadership still needs to make sure all 50 Democratic senators support the plan.\n\n Senate Democratic negotiators agreed on the framework Tuesday evening but they still must win the endorsement of all 50 members to pass the measure through their chamber in a process known as budget reconciliation\n\nTheWaPo reportalso included some new details about the Democrats' tax plans, which mostly focus on compliance.\n\nTo pay for these changes, Congressional Democrats are pursuing a slew of tax hikes on the rich and corporations, as well as major changes to the IRS to close the “tax gap” — the difference between what taxpayers owe and what they pay. Other major new sources of revenue include raising the top marginal tax rate, increasing the corporate tax rate, and changes to the international tax system, among other potential measures, the people said.\nThe specifics of these programs are expected to be written by Democratic lawmakers on the Senate Finance Committee and House Ways and Means Committee. Lawmakers extensively discussed including new bank reporting requirements, the four people said, which would require major financial institutions to send reams of data to the IRS to help the tax agency identify tax evasion and fraud. But it was unclear if that would be included in the agreement.\nSome Congressional Democrats believe stepping up IRS enforcement help collect as much as $1 trillion in uncollected taxes, although many tax experts are skeptical about the extent of savings that would materialize from the plan. The IRS changes were pushed in negotiations by Sen. Mark R. Warner (D-Va.), two of the people said. Warner told reporters on Tuesday the package would be paid for.\n\nThere have also been whispers that capital gains tax hikes might also be in play. Perhaps that's why stocks slipped ahead of Powell's testimony.\n\n* * *\nUpdate (1120ET):The Democratic Congressional leadership celebrated their 'victory' in striking an intra-party deal to try and pass a $3.5 trillion \"human infrastructure\" bill last night, but Sen. Joe Manchin made clear on Wednesday morning that while the deal has won the support of the leadership and the Democrats' progressive left flank, it's not exactly a done deal - since Manchin hasn't actually read the thing yet.\nSpeaking to reporters in the Capitol on Wednesday, the West Virginia Sen. and critical swing vote said he's open to the deal, which would be entirely paid for by tax hike offsets.\nNotice, according to the quote below, Manchin merely stated that he's \"open\" to the deal - not exactly a ringing endorsement. It's just the latest example of eager Democratic leaders jumping the gun to try and please their party's new 'leader', President Biden. It's becoming increasingly clear that the leadership hasn't quite finished whipping the votes.\n\"I heard about it this morning or late last night from my staff,” Manchin told reporters on Tuesday. “So, we’re anxious to basically review it. They worked hard on it, we want to see it. Also, I’ve been very clear that I want to see the pay-fors and make sure that whatever we do is globally competitive.\"\n\"I’m open to looking at everything they provide. OK? They’re going to have to provide all the information that’s going to be needed,” he added. “They worked hard, they should have a proposal.”\nBut that didn't stop media outlets likethe Hillfrom celebrating Manchin's comment as some kind of commitment, while others pointed out that he has very clearly not yet committed to backing the deal.\nAccording to Manchin, he hasn't even read it yet.\n* * *\nMonths after the Biden Administration and its Congressional alliesleaked the first details of President Biden's massive two-part \"Build Back Better\" infrastructure plan, Chuck Schumer, the Democrats' leader in the Senate, just announced that Democrats have united behind a $3.5 trillion \"infrastructure\" spending package, which they can now pass using special budget rules allowing them to circumvent the filibuster.\nIn a late-night announcement Tuesday, Schumer said the Budget Committee had reached an agreement to allot $3.5 trillion for a spending package that would complete President Biden’s infrastructure plan.\n\n \"The Budget Committee has come to an agreement,\" Sen. Schumer told reporters Tuesday night following a closed-door meeting with Democratic lawmakers.\n\nThe deal adds to the $600 billion package of infrastructure measures that Biden has struck with Republicans.\n\n \"You add that to that the $600 billion in a bipartisan plan and you get to $4.1 trillion, which is very, very close to what President Biden has asked us for,\" Schumer said. \"Every major program that President Biden has asked us for is funded in a robust way.\"\n\nThe package will include such \"infrastructure\" priorities like expanding Medicare, addressing climate change, expanding childcare (after the administration just approved a new $300 handout for couples with children)  and education. The Democrats have famously deemed all this \"human infrastructure\", which Republicans have vowed to reject.\nDemocrats will meet with Biden Wednesday, the majority leader said following the closed-door meeting.\n\n \"We are very proud of this plan. We know we have a long road to go. We're going to get this done for the sake of making average Americans' lives a whole lot better,\" Schumer said\n\nPreviously, Schumer has promised to hold votes on both pieces of legislation before the Senate breaks for its August recess, which amounts to a pretty aggressive timeline, especially since some Republicans might rethink their support for the earlier measure now that Democrats are pushing ahead with the bigger multi-trillion-dollar package.\nTo be clear, the bipartisan deal struck by Biden authorizes a total of $1.2 trillion in spending over eight years. Meanwhile, the budget resolution necessary to pass the Democratic-only bill will require some more maneuvering.\nSenate Democrats want to bring the bipartisan infrastructure bill to the floor as soon as next week, though negotiators have warned that is an ambitious pace. Democrats didn't say on Tuesday night when specifically they would be ready to take the budget resolution to the floor. To pass both the budget resolution and a subsequent $3 to $5-trillion infrastructure bill through the Senate Democrats will need total unity from all 50 of their members. Democrats declined to say on Tuesday night if they had unified support.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":415,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148976559,"gmtCreate":1625923950471,"gmtModify":1633936095123,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"FB? Nah","listText":"FB? Nah","text":"FB? Nah","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148976559","repostId":"1177397700","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":423,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893120118,"gmtCreate":1628248037534,"gmtModify":1633752272974,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hang in there.","listText":"Hang in there.","text":"Hang in there.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893120118","repostId":"1135651416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1475,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178488328,"gmtCreate":1626831981064,"gmtModify":1633770583851,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Stay for the 1.5, then go.","listText":"Stay for the 1.5, then go.","text":"Stay for the 1.5, then go.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178488328","repostId":"2153618516","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":359,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178489655,"gmtCreate":1626831840677,"gmtModify":1633770585787,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy the notsodip","listText":"Buy the notsodip","text":"Buy the notsodip","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178489655","repostId":"2153924256","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":293,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":173870168,"gmtCreate":1626655086454,"gmtModify":1633925255224,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Plus don't come back.","listText":"Plus don't come back.","text":"Plus don't come back.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173870168","repostId":"2152687718","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":292,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808362372,"gmtCreate":1627558392596,"gmtModify":1633763827540,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","listText":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","text":"Dump pp, too many complaints.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808362372","repostId":"1157796712","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157796712","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1627546052,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157796712?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-29 16:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157796712","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but","content":"<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>支付公司PayPal第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场普遍预期，该公司股价暴跌近5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为1.15美元，超过预期的1.13美元，销售额为62.4亿美元，低于分析师预期的62.7亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益为1.07美元，低于预期的1.14美元，而销售额指引为6.15至62.5亿美元，低于预期的6.43美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)写道：“第三季度前景将推动人们的叙述，收入预计比华尔街预期低约3.5%。每股收益预计低约6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了eBay向“托管支付”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。有eBay的TPV增长率为40%，没有out的TPV增长率为48%，而没有eBay的销售额增长率为32%，而有eBay的销售额增长率为19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官John Rainey在与分析师的看涨期权上表示：“我们现在从eBay吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。”他补充说，该公司“计划eBay对我们收入增长的拖累将大于之前的预期。这一拖累将使第三季度收入增长8.5个百分点，减少4.65亿美元，收入预计将达到62亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹·多列夫敦促投资者放眼长远。他在谈到PayPal在2020年的惊人增长时写道，虽然“新冠疫情蜜月可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的更强参与度以及“立即购买”等新举措的势头稍后付款”，交易量季度增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal百货第三季度将总支付量指引从30%上调至33%-35%，比疫情前水平高出10个百分点。他在一份报告中写道：“这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL的股价涨幅将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，它向商家收取的“使用率”持续疲软，指的是他们向PayPal支付的服务费用。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降到第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将这一下降归因于eBay交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal正面临更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal Earnings Beat Expectations. Why Its Stock Is Dropping.<blockquote>PayPal盈利超出预期。为什么它的股票在下跌。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-29 16:07</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>PayPal stock tumbled&nbsp;nearly&nbsp;5%&nbsp;after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.</p><p><blockquote>支付公司PayPal第二季度盈利超出预期，但提供的指引低于市场普遍预期，该公司股价暴跌近5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f8c2f03bbb34acf38cda8e22bd97803\" tg-width=\"881\" tg-height=\"641\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43</p><p><blockquote>PayPal公布调整后每股利润为1.15美元，超过预期的1.13美元，销售额为62.4亿美元，低于分析师预期的62.7亿美元。PayPal还表示，第三季度每股收益为1.07美元，低于预期的1.14美元，而销售额指引为6.15至62.5亿美元，低于预期的6.43美元</blockquote></p><p> “3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.</p><p><blockquote>杰富瑞(Jefferies)分析师特雷弗·威廉姆斯(Trevor Williams)写道：“第三季度前景将推动人们的叙述，收入预计比华尔街预期低约3.5%。每股收益预计低约6%。”</blockquote></p><p> PayPal highlighted the impact of&nbsp;eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal强调了eBay向“托管支付”系统过渡的影响，认为这是增长放缓的原因之一。有eBay的TPV增长率为40%，没有out的TPV增长率为48%，而没有eBay的销售额增长率为32%，而有eBay的销售额增长率为19%。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.</p><p><blockquote>首席财务官John Rainey在与分析师的看涨期权上表示：“我们现在从eBay吸收的压力比我们之前预期的要大。”他补充说，该公司“计划eBay对我们收入增长的拖累将大于之前的预期。这一拖累将使第三季度收入增长8.5个百分点，减少4.65亿美元，收入预计将达到62亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Mizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.</p><p><blockquote>瑞穗证券的丹·多列夫敦促投资者放眼长远。他在谈到PayPal在2020年的惊人增长时写道，虽然“新冠疫情蜜月可能已经结束”，但他在财报中强调了几个积极因素，包括与PayPal核心应用程序的更强参与度以及“立即购买”等新举措的势头稍后付款”，交易量季度增长49%。</blockquote></p><p> He also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.</p><p><blockquote>他还指出，PayPal百货第三季度将总支付量指引从30%上调至33%-35%，比疫情前水平高出10个百分点。他在一份报告中写道：“这表明电子商务趋势强劲，PYPL的股价涨幅将持续下去。”</blockquote></p><p> But expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.</p><p><blockquote>但目前对该股的预期可能很难达到，而且有迹象表明压力可能正在增加。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.</p><p><blockquote>例如，PayPal报告称，它向商家收取的“使用率”持续疲软，指的是他们向PayPal支付的服务费用。该比率从2020年第四季度的2.21%下降到第一季度的2.11%和第二季度的2.01%。PayPal将这一下降归因于eBay交易量下降和外汇费用下降，但这也可能表明PayPal正面临更具竞争力的定价压力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157796712","content_text":"PayPal stock tumbled nearly 5% after the payments company beat second-quarter earnings forecasts but offered below-consensus guidance.\n\nPayPal reported an adjusted profit of $1.15 a share, beating forecasts for $1.13 on sales of $6.24 billion, missing analyst estimates for $6.27 billion. PayPal also said it would earn $1.07 a share in the third quarter, below estimates for $1.14, while sales guidance of $6.15 to $6.25 billion came in shy of expectations for $6.43\n“3Q outlook will drive the narrative, with revenues guided ~3.5% below Street ests. and EPS ~6% below,” writes Jefferies analyst Trevor Williams.\nPayPal highlighted the impact of eBay‘s transition to a “managed payments” system as one source of slower growth. TPV growth was 40% with eBay, 48% without out, while sales grew at a 32% clip without eBay versus 19% with.\n“We’re now absorbing more pressure from eBay than we had previously expected,” CFO John Rainey said on a call with analysts. He added that the company is “planning for eBay’s drag on our revenue growth to be greater than previously expected. The drag will amount to 8.5 percentage points of growth on third quarter revenue, shaving off $465 million and taking revenue to an estimated $6.2 billion.\nMizuho Securities’ Dan Dolev urged investors to take the longer view. While it’s true that the “Covid honeymoon may be over,” he wrote, referring to PayPal’s phenomenal growth in 2020, he highlighted several positives in the earnings report, including stronger engagement with PayPal’s core apps and momentum in new initiatives like “buy now pay later,” which saw 49% quarterly volume growth in transactions.\nHe also points out that PayPal’s boosted its total payment volume guidance from 30% to 33%-35% in the third quarter, 10 points higher than prepandemic levels. “This suggests strong e-commerce trends and PYPL’s share gains are here to stay,” he wrote in a note.\nBut expectations for the stock may be tough to meet at this juncture, and there were signs of pressure that may be building.\nPayPal, for instance, reported that it’s continuing to see weakness in the “take rate” it charges merchants, referring to the payments they make to PayPal for its services. The rate fell from 2.21% in the fourth quarter of 2020 to 2.11% in the first quarter and 2.01% in the second quarter. PayPal attributed the decline to lower eBay volumes and declines in foreign exchange fees, but it may also indicate that PayPal is facing more competitive pricing pressure.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":801372498,"gmtCreate":1627485335714,"gmtModify":1633764523387,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Inari. Promising","listText":"Inari. Promising","text":"Inari. Promising","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/801372498","repostId":"2154236859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1586,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":809434568,"gmtCreate":1627386178054,"gmtModify":1633765521321,"author":{"id":"3573708491598785","authorId":"3573708491598785","name":"SHAJ","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd7cb9c446f2a757b685fbfa4ef1dbd9","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3573708491598785","idStr":"3573708491598785"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yet to try.","listText":"Yet to try.","text":"Yet to try.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/809434568","repostId":"1118738178","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1118738178","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627385338,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1118738178?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-27 19:28","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1118738178","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap需要跨越很高的门槛才能给投资者留下深刻印象。不仅第二季度业绩取得成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap在北美的ARPU是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在廉价地下室。因此，现阶段寻求买入的投资者必须采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和2021年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap的营收继续以非常强劲的速度增长，而其利润EBITDA增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以29倍的远期销售额计算，该股并不便宜。而考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚定的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为按照这个估值，该股已经消化了未来的大量增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一年前同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的收入同比增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越Snap在北美成熟的月活跃用户数，将其国际机遇视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管海外收入强劲，但Snap回报的真正驱动力来自北美用户的定价能力：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点放在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。正如您所看到的，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU同比增长116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美DAU同比仅增长6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系Snap的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的质疑。毕竟，Snap正在采取轻资产且利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，将其他制造商的资本投资转化为截至2021年第四季度运行收入近45亿美元的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap声称，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更身临其境的内容，还可以访问其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立用户生活旅程的数字清单。其他用途可以是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起Snap年轻人的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的29倍。如果我们与Pinterest(PINS)（其远期销售额约为19倍）进行比较，这提醒读者，Snap显然包含了很多兴奋、乐观、期望和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东可能很快就会注意到，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少以低价交易——尤其是在漫长的牛市即将结束时。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在向投资者发出信号，表明其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去12个月调整后EBITDA盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果SNAP 2021年第二季度116%的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么Snap调整后EBITDA增长超过200%看起来就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其净利润EBITDA预计将再次实现三位数的EBITDA同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一看跌的考虑因素是Snap的估值没有给投资者提供太多犯错的空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易成本更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪进行了定价。因此，当股票定价如此昂贵时，任何季度发生的任何事故都会使该股票面临大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于Snap的DAU持续稳步增长。此外，2021年第二季度北美的DAU仅实现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（COVID之前），Snap的DAU增长与上年同期大致相当。这不可否认地提醒我们，Snap的DAU增长此前已经趋于平缓，而且完全有可能再次趋于平缓。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap并不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会坐视这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值却便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Snap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSnap Stock: One Of Fastest Growing Social Media Companies<blockquote>Snap股票：增长最快的社交媒体公司之一</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-27 19:28</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Snap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.</li>  <li>Snap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.</li>  <li>Snap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce123df394d362ecf57640f1621162e3\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Geber86/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Snap需要跨越很高的门槛才能给投资者留下深刻印象。不仅第二季度业绩取得成功，而且从第三季度指引来看，其前景仍然非常有吸引力。</li><li>Snap在北美的ARPU是其第二季度业绩的亮点。</li><li>Snap不在廉价地下室。因此，现阶段寻求买入的投资者必须采取买入并持有的投资策略。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Geber86/E+来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Snap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.</p><p><blockquote>SNAP（SNAP）报告了另一项令人印象深刻的业绩和2021年第三季度指引。当我们深入研究其结果时，报告中没有明显的瑕疵。Snap的营收继续以非常强劲的速度增长，而其利润EBITDA增长则更加令人印象深刻。</blockquote></p><p> At 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very&nbsp;<i>strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy</i>. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.</p><p><blockquote>以29倍的远期销售额计算，该股并不便宜。而考虑这一投资机会的投资者将不得不采取非常<i>意志坚定的买入并持有投资策略</i>.因为按照这个估值，该股已经消化了未来的大量增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Revenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong</b></p><p><blockquote><b>收入增长率非常强劲</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/72843b7d7a6cc562b484e25eac7cacbe\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **high-end guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**高端指导</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Q2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到一年前同期广告业的疲软程度，2021年第二季度看起来总是很强劲。因此，Snap股东显然期望很高。但看到Snap的收入同比增长率超过三位数？这尤其令人震惊。</blockquote></p><p> Previously, I had noted that investors should look beyond&nbsp;Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.</p><p><blockquote>此前，我曾指出，投资者应该超越Snap在北美成熟的月活跃用户数，将其国际机遇视为下一波增长机会。</blockquote></p><p> However, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:</p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管海外收入强劲，但Snap回报的真正驱动力来自北美用户的定价能力：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/95aca2444a479c7dc060c03d6bf0cec3\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"126\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?</p><p><blockquote>在上表中，我已经剔除了所有其他细节，以便我们将讨论的重点放在Snap的每用户平均收入（“ARPU”）上。正如您所看到的，北美的定价是收入的真正驱动力，ARPU同比增长116%。为什么这很重要？</blockquote></p><p> It's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>这很重要，因为它表明，即使北美DAU同比仅增长6%，广告商也渴望接触和联系Snap的年轻人群，并为这一机会付费。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>眼镜会成为Snap的下一波增长吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> For some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.</p><p><blockquote>一段时间以来，Snap一直在让投资者意识到，它正在超越社交媒体平台，现在正在寻求将其增强现实技术部署到硬件中。</blockquote></p><p> At first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.</p><p><blockquote>起初，这遭到了投资者的质疑。毕竟，Snap正在采取轻资产且利润丰厚的业务，并转向利润率较低的硬件收入业务。</blockquote></p><p> Indeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Snap为什么会做出这样的举动并没有多大意义。特别是考虑到Snap在没有任何硬件投资的情况下发展非常成功，并建立了必要的技术，将其他制造商的资本投资转化为截至2021年第四季度运行收入近45亿美元的业务。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its&nbsp;Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Snap声称，通过进一步发展其眼镜业务部门，用户不仅可以创建更身临其境的内容，还可以访问其他用途。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.</p><p><blockquote>例如，通过使用眼镜，用户可以使用AR试穿技术来模拟实体购物体验，并获得合适尺寸的衣服，以减少在线退货的需求。</blockquote></p><p> The underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的想法是增加用户参与度，并建立用户生活旅程的数字清单。其他用途可以是增加在线购物体验的个性化。</blockquote></p><p> This is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.</p><p><blockquote>这可能会引起Snap年轻人的强烈共鸣，并为Snap提供了在该领域与其他参与者区分开来的机会。</blockquote></p><p> While Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap很快指出，这还不是一个成熟的解决方案，但它仍然是一种通过使可视化个性化并尽可能接近真实来改善购物者在线体验的方式。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Hence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?</i></p><p><blockquote><i>因此，投资者必须回答的问题是，这一切是否已经被定价，或者是否还有更多的上涨潜力？</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>SNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>SNAP股票估值：不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Snap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.</p><p><blockquote>Snap的估值约为远期销售额的29倍。如果我们与Pinterest(PINS)（其远期销售额约为19倍）进行比较，这提醒读者，Snap显然包含了很多兴奋、乐观、期望和积极情绪。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，股东可能很快就会注意到，即使Snap估值很高，高质量和快速增长的企业也很少以低价交易——尤其是在漫长的牛市即将结束时。</blockquote></p><p> Moreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.</p><p><blockquote>此外，请记住，Snap现在向投资者发出信号，表明其多年投资正在取得成果，这标志着其过去12个月调整后EBITDA盈利能力的第三季度。</blockquote></p><p> Hence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果SNAP 2021年第二季度116%的营收显得强劲并成为许多头条新闻，那么Snap调整后EBITDA增长超过200%看起来就更好了。</blockquote></p><p> What's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，当我们展望下一季度的指引时，其净利润EBITDA预计将再次实现三位数的EBITDA同比增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Premortem (Investment Risks)</b></p><p><blockquote><b>事前（投资风险）</b></blockquote></p><p> Arguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.</p><p><blockquote>可以说，唯一看跌的考虑因素是Snap的估值没有给投资者提供太多犯错的空间。它不仅比其他社交平台的交易成本更高，而且显然也是一只估值很高的股票。</blockquote></p><p> To this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.</p><p><blockquote>为此，我们看到投资者对Snap将继续给投资者带来积极惊喜的乐观情绪进行了定价。因此，当股票定价如此昂贵时，任何季度发生的任何事故都会使该股票面临大幅抛售。</blockquote></p><p> Next, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，投资者的大部分论点在很大程度上取决于Snap的DAU持续稳步增长。此外，2021年第二季度北美的DAU仅实现了中个位数的增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cab82b3b3570378165d43957bf0e925c\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"65\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> If we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们回顾2019年上半年（COVID之前），Snap的DAU增长与上年同期大致相当。这不可否认地提醒我们，Snap的DAU增长此前已经趋于平缓，而且完全有可能再次趋于平缓。如果发生这种情况，投资者就不会将Snap视为一个高增长的名字，愿意购买该股票的投资者数量也会减少。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线：SNAP值得购买吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Even though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.</p><p><blockquote>尽管Snap并不是一只便宜的股票，但Snap继续证明其收入增长率仍然非常强劲。</blockquote></p><p> While there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.</p><p><blockquote>虽然Snap的投资有很多值得喜欢的地方，但我会坐视这个机会，因为我更喜欢投资前景不那么乐观但估值却便宜得多的公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNAP":"Snap Inc"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4441412-snap-one-of-fastest-growing-social-media-companies","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1118738178","content_text":"Summary\n\nSnap had a high bar to cross to impress investors. And not only did its Q2 results succeed but, looking out to its Q3 guidance, its prospects remain very attractive.\nSnap's ARPU in North America was the highlight of its Q2 results.\nSnap is not in the bargain basement. Hence, investors looking to buy at this stage will have to take a buy-and-hold investment strategy.\n\nGeber86/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nSnap (SNAP) reported yet another impressive result and Q3 2021 guidance. And as we dig into its results, there are no obvious blemishes in the report. Snap continues growing its top line revenues at very strong rates, while its bottom line EBITDA growth is even more impressive.\nAt 29x forward sales, the stock is not cheap. And investors considering this investment opportunity will have to adopt a very strong-willed buy-and-hold investment strategy. Because at this valuation, the stock is already pricing in a lot of future growth.\nRevenue Growth Rates Are Incredibly Strong\nSource: author's calculations; **high-end guidance\nQ2 2021 was always going to look strong given just how weak the advertising industry found itself in the same period a year ago. Thus, Snap shareholders were clearly expecting a lot. But to see Snap come out with more than triple digits y/y revenue growth rates? That was particularly stunning.\nPreviously, I had noted that investors should look beyond Snap's maturing MAUs in North America, and look towards its International opportunity as its next wave of growth opportunities.\nHowever, even though its overseas revenues were strong, the real driver of Snap's returns come from the pricing power of its North America users:\n\nIn the table above, I've stripped out all the other details for us to focus our discussions around Snap's Average Revenue Per User (\"ARPU\"). As you can see, pricing in North America was the real driver of revenues, with ARPU up 116% y/y. Why is this important?\nIt's important because it shows that, even on the back of just 6% y/y growth in DAUs in North America, advertisers are eager to reach out and connect with Snap's young demographic and pay up for that opportunity.\nCould Spectacles be the Next Wave of Growth for Snap?\nFor some time, Snap has been making investors aware that it's moving beyond just a social media platform and that it's now looking to take its Augmented Reality technology and deploy it into hardware.\nAt first, this was met with investor skepticism. After all, Snap was taking an asset-light and lucrative business and pivoting towards a hardware revenue business, with lower margins.\nIndeed, it didn't make much sense why Snap would make such a move. Particularly given that Snap had, without any hardware investment, grown very successfully and built the necessary technology to spring off other manufacturers' capital investment into a business with nearly $4.5 billion in run-rate revenues as of Q4 2021.\nHaving said that, Snap asserts that by further developing its Spectacles business unit, users can not only create more immersive content, but they will have access to other uses as well.\nFor instance, by using Spectacles, users can use AR try-on technology to emulate a physical shopping experience and get clothing with the right fit and the right size, to reduce the need for online returns.\nThe underlying idea is to increase user engagement and build an increased digital inventory of the users' life journeys. Other uses could be to increase the personalization of an online shopping experience.\nThis is something that is likely to resonate strongly with Snap's young demographic and offers Snap an opportunity to differentiate itself against other players in this space.\nWhile Snap is quick to note that this is not yet a fully-fledged solution, it's nevertheless a way to improve shoppers' online experience by making visualization personal and as close to real as possible.\nHence, the question investors have to answer is whether this is all already priced in or if there's still more upside potential?\nSNAP Stock Valuation: Not Cheap\nSnap is valued at approximately 29x forward sales. If we compare with Pinterest (PINS), which trades at approximately 19x forward sales, this reminds readers that a lot of excitement, optimism, expectation, and positive sentiment is evidently priced into Snap.\nOn the other hand, shareholders may be quick to remark that even if Snap is richly valued, high quality and rapidly growing businesses rarely trade in the bargain basement -- particularly towards the end of a very long bull market.\nMoreover, keep in mind that Snap is now signaling to investors that its multi-year investments are now paying fruit and this now marks the third quarter of adjusted EBITDA profitability over its trailing twelve months.\nHence, if Snap's Q2 2021's 116% top line appears strong and caught many headlines, then Snap's adjusted EBITDA growth of more than 200% looks even better.\nWhat's more, as we look out to its guidance next quarter, its bottom line EBITDA is expected to once again posttriple digits EBITDA growth y/y.\nPremortem (Investment Risks)\nArguably, the single bearish consideration is that Snap's valuation doesn't offer investors much room for error. Not only does it trade more expensively than other social platforms, but it's also clearly a richly valued stock.\nTo this end, we see that investors pricing a lot of optimism that Snap will continue to positively surprise investors. Consequently, any mishaps during any quarter, when a stock is so richly priced, leaves the stock primed for a meaningful sell-off.\nNext, the bulk of investor thesis is to a large extent contingent on Snap's DAUs continuing to steadily increase. What's more, Q2 2021 marked just a mid-single-digit increase in DAUs in North America.\n\nIf we look back to H1 2019 (pre-COVID), Snap's DAU growth was approximately compared with the same period in the prior year. This is an undeniable reminder that Snap's DAU growth had previously flattened and that it's entirely possible that it may flatten down once again. If that were to happen, investors would not regard Snap as a high growth name, and the number of investors that would be willing to pay for the stock would decrease.\nThe Bottom Line: Is SNAP A Good Buy?\nEven though Snap is not a cheap stock, Snap continues to demonstrate that its revenue growth rates remain incredibly strong.\nWhile there's a lot to like in Snap's investment, I will sit out this opportunity as I prefer to invest in companies where the outlook is not as rosy, but the valuation is dramatically cheaper.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNAP":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":777,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}