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Ignis

Ignis

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2021-12-31

Hahahaha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-29

Gool

JD.com Upsizes and Extends Authorization Under Existing Share Repurchase Program<blockquote>京东扩大现有股票回购计划的规模并延长授权</blockquote>

2021-12-28

[Surprised]

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-27

Escaped

A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote>

2021-12-26

Noted bye

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-25

Hahahha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-24

Ok can

Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>

2021-12-23

Goodz

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-22

Hold on to seatbelt

Stocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>由于奥密克戎担忧，股市在连续三天暴跌后反弹，道琼斯指数上涨300点</blockquote>

2021-12-20

Hahahaa ok

Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-12-19

Hahahaha

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-18

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-18

Can

Cerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>Cerner 股价因甲骨文 300 亿美元收购要约的报道而飙升</blockquote>

2021-12-17

Good

Singapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将维持区间震荡</blockquote>

2021-12-16

It's time to give

2021-12-16

Hohoho

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-15

Good and good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-12-14

Ok can

PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>

2021-12-13

Can

2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022 年持有苹果股票的 2 个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote>

2021-12-12

Q2 only

抱歉，原内容已删除

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08:05","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"JD.com Upsizes and Extends Authorization Under Existing Share Repurchase Program<blockquote>京东扩大现有股票回购计划的规模并延长授权</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1116394110","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BEIJING, Dec. 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. 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The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><blockquote>京东是一家领先的供应链技术和服务提供商。该公司尖端的零售基础设施旨在让消费者能够随时随地购买他们想要的任何东西。该公司已向合作伙伴、品牌和其他部门开放其技术和基础设施，作为其零售即服务产品的一部分，以帮助推动一系列行业的生产力和创新。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1573717531661","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>JD.com Upsizes and Extends Authorization Under Existing Share Repurchase Program<blockquote>京东扩大现有股票回购计划的规模并延长授权</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nJD.com Upsizes and Extends Authorization Under Existing Share Repurchase Program<blockquote>京东扩大现有股票回购计划的规模并延长授权</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GlobeNewswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-29 08:05</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, Dec. 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. (the “Company” or “JD.com”) (Nasdaq: JD; HKEX: 9618), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has approved modifications to its existing share repurchase program adopted in March 2020, pursuant to which the repurchase authorization has increased from US$2.0 billion to US$3.0 billion and has been extended until March 17, 2024.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021 年 12 月 29 日 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 领先的供应链技术和服务提供商京东公司（“公司”或 “京东”）（纳斯达克股票代码：JD；港交所股票代码：9618）今天宣布，公司董事会已批准对 2020 年 3 月通过的现有股票回购计划进行修改，根据该计划，回购授权从 20 亿美元增加到 30 亿美元，并延长至 2024 年 3 月 17 日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About JD.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于京东</b></blockquote></p><p> JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><blockquote>京东是一家领先的供应链技术和服务提供商。该公司尖端的零售基础设施旨在让消费者能够随时随地购买他们想要的任何东西。该公司已向合作伙伴、品牌和其他部门开放其技术和基础设施，作为其零售即服务产品的一部分，以帮助推动一系列行业的生产力和创新。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/29/2358620/0/en/JD-com-Upsizes-and-Extends-Authorization-Under-Existing-Share-Repurchase-Program.html\">GlobeNewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"JD":"京东","09618":"京东集团-SW"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/29/2358620/0/en/JD-com-Upsizes-and-Extends-Authorization-Under-Existing-Share-Repurchase-Program.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116394110","content_text":"BEIJING, Dec. 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. 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The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"JD":0.9,"09618":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696153525,"gmtCreate":1640653489963,"gmtModify":1640653490562,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696153525","repostId":"2194101666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3313,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698762759,"gmtCreate":1640561000567,"gmtModify":1640561001219,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Escaped","listText":"Escaped","text":"Escaped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698762759","repostId":"1144001147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144001147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640485026,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1144001147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 10:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144001147","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, t","content":"<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股飙升超过500%。该股的上涨始于 2020 年 12 月 21 日之后--从那里开始...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大型合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen 陷入了困境</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-26 10:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股飙升超过500%。该股的上涨始于 2020 年 12 月 21 日之后--从那里开始...</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144001147","content_text":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there, the stock is up over 1,600%.\nHowever, it’s worth noting that OCGN stock was trading well below one dollar before it stitched a partnership with Bharat Biotech. The companies announced plans to begin manufacturing Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. on Dec. 22 last year.\nBeyond the news of this partnership, there has been little to cheer for investors. OCGN stock traded at all-time highs of $18.77 in February and reached slightly lower peaks in May and November. The stock traded at $5.12 at the start of Dec. 23.\nOcugen will continue to underperform going forward. Even after the downtrend in the last few months, OCGN stock should be avoided.\nLet’s talk about the reasons to be bearish.\nFDA Approval Remains Elusive\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) and Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA) have been leaders in the vaccine race in the U.S. In a country where more than 70% of the population has already been vaccinated, Ocugen has yet to secure an approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.\nBack in June, the biotech company’s application for emergency use authorization was rejected by the FDA. The recommendation by the FDA was to file for a biologics license application, which implies full approval.\nIn November, Ocugen announced that the FDA has “issued a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug application (IND) to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine candidate.” The FDA will be identifying the specific deficiencies that form a basis for the clinical hold. Once Ocugen addresses these deficiencies, there will be some progress.\nThe key point is that it’s been over a year since Ocugen announced the partnership with Bharat Biotech. The company has still been unsuccessful from an approval perspective.\nIn July, Ocugen had also initiated a rolling submission to Health Canada for the vaccine. There is no positive news on that front either.\nLet’s imagine a scenario where Ocugen receives an approval for vaccine use in Q1 2022. This is very unlikely. However, even in an optimistic case scenario, Ocugen needs to compete in a market where vaccination percentage is high. There is unlikely to be a case for strong revenue and cash flow growth.\nCan Omicron Provide a Lifeline for OCGN Stock?\nThe omicron variant has been a cause of concern for governments globally. Ocugen and partner Bharat Biotech are currently studying the effectiveness of the vaccine against the variant.\nIf the vaccine proves to be effective, can it be a game-changer for Ocugen? Most likely, no.\nFirst and foremost, Moderna has announced that its Covid-19 booster increases neutralizing antibodies 37-fold against Omicron variant.\nFurthermore, Pfizer has announced that a third dose increases the “neutralizing antibody by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant.”\nClearly, the leading vaccine makers have an edge. Even if Ocugen announces that its vaccine is effective against the omicron variant, the stock is unlikely to trend higher.\nPeople who have already taken two shots of Moderna or Pfizer are unlikely to pursue a booster shot with Ocugen. Additionally, Ocugen is still struggling for approval.\nIt’s also worth noting that Ocugen needs to share revenue with Bharat Biotech. The visibility for healthy cash flows is therefore very unlikely.\nOCGN Stock Will Trend Lower\nOCGN stock is likely to continue trending lower in the coming months. Without an approval, the company is rapidly losing out on any revenue and cash flow potential.\nThe company is building a pipeline of drugs for various indications. However, the pipeline for various indications is still at a pre-clinical stage.\nThe stock trend will therefore be dictated by the outcome of Covid-19 vaccine approval and revenue potential. Things seem bleak on that front.\nIt also seems unlikely that Ocugen has a capability to expand the vaccine partnership with Bharat Biotech to other countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698459379,"gmtCreate":1640505011408,"gmtModify":1640505012011,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noted bye","listText":"Noted bye","text":"Noted bye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698459379","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2924,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698223389,"gmtCreate":1640412779820,"gmtModify":1640412780415,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahahha","listText":"Hahahha","text":"Hahahha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698223389","repostId":"2193317305","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4055,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698148750,"gmtCreate":1640326549575,"gmtModify":1640327556288,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698148750","repostId":"1117383431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117383431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640317475,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1117383431?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117383431","media":"Markets insider","summary":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year","content":"<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认今年犯了几个错误。以下是他2021年的8个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨了今年的投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司总裁为自己的税务做法辩护<b>在苹果上发了财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特 2021 年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了几笔数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并哀叹今年市场上猖獗的投机行为。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官还经受住了税务风险，辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特今年的 8 个亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发布了第四季度投资组合更新，以时尚的方式开始了新的一年。他透露了雪佛龙41亿美元的股份和威瑞森86亿美元的头寸，回答了他最近几个月购买了哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔还将其投资组合中最大的头寸苹果公司削减了 6%。此外，该公司在 2020 年削减了富国银行的持股比例后，将其持有的富国银行减半，并退出了摩根大通、PNC 和 M&amp;T。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东函件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于二月份发表了年度致股东信。这位投资者承认在 2016 年收购 Precision Castparts 时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣扬伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014 年 5 月 3 日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上手持冰淇淋在贸易展上接受记者采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警钟，并承认在5月份伯克希尔年度股东大会期间购买了“一般般”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人把股市当成赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售好市多可能是错误，并建议他在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸，以避免救助它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税务纠纷</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份，ProPublica 获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报道称这位投资者在 2014 年至 2018 年间仅缴纳了 2500 万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特因此受到抨击。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护时指出，他承诺将超过 99% 的净资产捐赠给慈善事业，并且自 2006 年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于六月辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五个慈善机构捐赠的总计41亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在 6 月份播出的 CNBC 采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人严厉批评了 Robinhood，芒格呼吁在 Archegos Capital 倒闭后对衍生品交易实施更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度的收益凸显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和业务有多么困难。这促使他储备现金并增加股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日的一年中，该企业集团净出售了 70 亿美元的股票，透露今年有望回购创纪录的 250 亿美元股票，并将其现金池增至前所未有的 1,490 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他的苹果投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至 12 月中旬，伯克希尔的股票价值已超过 1500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特 2021 年的 8 个亮点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认今年犯了几个错误。以下是他2021年的8个亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨了今年的投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司总裁为自己的税务做法辩护<b>在苹果上发了财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特 2021 年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了几笔数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并哀叹今年市场上猖獗的投机行为。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官还经受住了税务风险，辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特今年的 8 个亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发布了第四季度投资组合更新，以时尚的方式开始了新的一年。他透露了雪佛龙41亿美元的股份和威瑞森86亿美元的头寸，回答了他最近几个月购买了哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔还将其投资组合中最大的头寸苹果公司削减了 6%。此外，该公司在 2020 年削减了富国银行的持股比例后，将其持有的富国银行减半，并退出了摩根大通、PNC 和 M&amp;T。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东函件</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于二月份发表了年度致股东信。这位投资者承认在 2016 年收购 Precision Castparts 时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣扬伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014 年 5 月 3 日，伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上手持冰淇淋在贸易展上接受记者采访。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警钟，并承认在5月份伯克希尔年度股东大会期间购买了“一般般”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人把股市当成赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售好市多可能是错误，并建议他在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸，以避免救助它们。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税务纠纷</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6 月份，ProPublica 获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报道称这位投资者在 2014 年至 2018 年间仅缴纳了 2500 万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特因此受到抨击。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护时指出，他承诺将超过 99% 的净资产捐赠给慈善事业，并且自 2006 年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特于六月辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五个慈善机构捐赠的总计41亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在 6 月份播出的 CNBC 采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人严厉批评了 Robinhood，芒格呼吁在 Archegos Capital 倒闭后对衍生品交易实施更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度的收益凸显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和业务有多么困难。这促使他储备现金并增加股票回购。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至 9 月 30 日的一年中，该企业集团净出售了 70 亿美元的股票，透露今年有望回购创纪录的 250 亿美元股票，并将其现金池增至前所未有的 1,490 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他的苹果投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至 12 月中旬，伯克希尔的股票价值已超过 1500 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B","BRK.A":"伯克希尔"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117383431","content_text":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.\nThe Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices and made a fortune on Apple.\nHere are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett.\nWarren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.\nThe renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.\nHere are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:\nChevron and Verizon\nCNBC\nBuffett started the year in style with his fourth-quarter portfolio update in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in Chevron and a $8.6 billion position in Verizon, answering the question of which mystery stocks he had been buying in recent months.\nBerkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its Wells Fargo holdings and exited JPMorgan,PNC, and M&T after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.\nThe shareholder letter\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett published his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.\nThe annual meeting\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.\nBuffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May.\nThe investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling Costco were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.\nThe tax fracas\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.\nThe Berkshire boss defended himself by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.\nThe Gates Foundation\nPaul Sakuma/AP Photo\nBuffett resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.\nHe also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.\nFriendship with Charlie Munger\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nBuffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a CNBC interview that aired in June.\nThe pair sharply criticized Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.\nBuybacks, cash, and stock sales\nWarren Buffett\nBerkshire's third-quarter earnings underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.\nThe conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.\nThe Apple bet\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.\nThe investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has surged by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691528632,"gmtCreate":1640222596934,"gmtModify":1640222597579,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Goodz","listText":"Goodz","text":"Goodz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691528632","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691318520,"gmtCreate":1640136070466,"gmtModify":1640136071026,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hold on to seatbelt","listText":"Hold on to seatbelt","text":"Hold on to seatbelt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691318520","repostId":"1130758324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130758324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640097001,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130758324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>由于奥密克戎担忧，股市在连续三天暴跌后反弹，道琼斯指数上涨300点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130758324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news the White House would step in to help fig","content":"<p>Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news&nbsp;the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场开盘走高，投资者权衡白宫将介入帮助抗击 omicron 的消息，向医院部署军事人员并购买 500 种可供美国人订购的家庭检测试剂。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指在开盘时全部上涨，扭转了前一交易日的下跌，原因是人们再次担心奥密克戎病例数量不断增加可能会破坏经济复苏并加剧通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&amp;P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨近300点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%。标普500在公开赛上获得了近40分。</blockquote></p><p> “We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）全球市场策略师米拉-潘迪特（Meera Pandit）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我们看到风险资产出现了大范围的抛售，但最终，如果我们考虑更长的时间范围，我不确定这些是否会有意义地改变我们2022年的投资前景。</blockquote></p><p> “On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”</p><p><blockquote>“在病毒方面，我们从之前的激增和之前的变种中最终看到的是，市场抛售往往会在一段时间内得到一定程度的控制，因此我们确实预计，随着我们越来越擅长从经济和市场角度应对其中一些挑战，尽管未来还将面临一些公共卫生挑战，但事情很可能会稳定下来。”</blockquote></p><p> With&nbsp;virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to&nbsp;more quickly withdraw monetary support&nbsp;and boost forecasts for&nbsp;rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>由于对病毒的担忧引发了更多的限制和取消，对奥密克戎利差的担忧给仍在为美联储上周更快撤回货币支持并上调明年加息预测的鹰派转变而摇摇欲坠的交易员带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> To add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on&nbsp;Fox News Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin，民主党，西弗吉尼亚州）在周日接受福克斯新闻采访时，以对通货膨胀、国债和持续大流行病的担忧为由，废除了政府酝酿已久的《重建更好法案》，这给拜登的经济议程带来了意想不到的打击。</blockquote></p><p> The news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致太阳能和电动汽车股票暴跌，导致特斯拉 (TSLA) 自 10 月份以来首次跌破 900 美元。该股收盘下跌 3.5%，至 899.94 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”</p><p><blockquote>“潘迪特还告诉雅虎财经直播：”当我们考虑重建得更好时，无论如何，去年我们都可能面临财政悬崖，财政支出比过去两年都要少。“但是，《重建更好法案》预计将在几年内分阶段实施，因此虽然这将对经济增长造成一定程度的阻力，但我认为现在这更多的是一种情绪的表现。”</blockquote></p><p> Even with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are&nbsp;tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.</p><p><blockquote>即使假期缩短了交易周，投资者仍在关注排满的经济发布时间表。世界大型企业联合会将于周三发布最新的消费者信心指数，预计 12 月份仅略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.</p><p><blockquote>经济分析局还将于周四公布个人消费支出（PCE）的最新数据，这是衡量经济价格变化的关键指标。彭博社编制的共识数据显示，预计 11 月份 PCE 将环比上涨 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>新的通胀数据将是未来几天投资者关注的焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>“Oxbow Advisors 管理合伙人泰德-奥克利（Ted Oakley）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我们现在面临着许多阻力。他说，投资者正在对美联储和通胀的 “鹰派峰值 ”进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> “Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”最后，市场投机性很强，很容易就能开始卖出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>由于奥密克戎担忧，股市在连续三天暴跌后反弹，道琼斯指数上涨300点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>由于奥密克戎担忧，股市在连续三天暴跌后反弹，道琼斯指数上涨300点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news&nbsp;the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场开盘走高，投资者权衡白宫将介入帮助抗击 omicron 的消息，向医院部署军事人员并购买 500 种可供美国人订购的家庭检测试剂。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指在开盘时全部上涨，扭转了前一交易日的下跌，原因是人们再次担心奥密克戎病例数量不断增加可能会破坏经济复苏并加剧通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&amp;P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨近300点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%。标普500在公开赛上获得了近40分。</blockquote></p><p> “We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>“摩根大通资产管理公司（JPMorgan Asset Management）全球市场策略师米拉-潘迪特（Meera Pandit）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我们看到风险资产出现了大范围的抛售，但最终，如果我们考虑更长的时间范围，我不确定这些是否会有意义地改变我们2022年的投资前景。</blockquote></p><p> “On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”</p><p><blockquote>“在病毒方面，我们从之前的激增和之前的变种中最终看到的是，市场抛售往往会在一段时间内得到一定程度的控制，因此我们确实预计，随着我们越来越擅长从经济和市场角度应对其中一些挑战，尽管未来还将面临一些公共卫生挑战，但事情很可能会稳定下来。”</blockquote></p><p> With&nbsp;virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to&nbsp;more quickly withdraw monetary support&nbsp;and boost forecasts for&nbsp;rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>由于对病毒的担忧引发了更多的限制和取消，对奥密克戎利差的担忧给仍在为美联储上周更快撤回货币支持并上调明年加息预测的鹰派转变而摇摇欲坠的交易员带来了压力。</blockquote></p><p> To add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on&nbsp;Fox News Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，参议员乔-曼钦（Joe Manchin，民主党，西弗吉尼亚州）在周日接受福克斯新闻采访时，以对通货膨胀、国债和持续大流行病的担忧为由，废除了政府酝酿已久的《重建更好法案》，这给拜登的经济议程带来了意想不到的打击。</blockquote></p><p> The news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致太阳能和电动汽车股票暴跌，导致特斯拉 (TSLA) 自 10 月份以来首次跌破 900 美元。该股收盘下跌 3.5%，至 899.94 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”</p><p><blockquote>“潘迪特还告诉雅虎财经直播：”当我们考虑重建得更好时，无论如何，去年我们都可能面临财政悬崖，财政支出比过去两年都要少。“但是，《重建更好法案》预计将在几年内分阶段实施，因此虽然这将对经济增长造成一定程度的阻力，但我认为现在这更多的是一种情绪的表现。”</blockquote></p><p> Even with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are&nbsp;tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.</p><p><blockquote>即使假期缩短了交易周，投资者仍在关注排满的经济发布时间表。世界大型企业联合会将于周三发布最新的消费者信心指数，预计 12 月份仅略有上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.</p><p><blockquote>经济分析局还将于周四公布个人消费支出（PCE）的最新数据，这是衡量经济价格变化的关键指标。彭博社编制的共识数据显示，预计 11 月份 PCE 将环比上涨 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>新的通胀数据将是未来几天投资者关注的焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>“Oxbow Advisors 管理合伙人泰德-奥克利（Ted Oakley）告诉雅虎财经直播：”我们现在面临着许多阻力。他说，投资者正在对美联储和通胀的 “鹰派峰值 ”进行定价。</blockquote></p><p> “Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“他补充说：”最后，市场投机性很强，很容易就能开始卖出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130758324","content_text":"Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.\nAll three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.\nThe Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.\n“We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management told Yahoo Finance Live.\n“On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”\nWith virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to more quickly withdraw monetary support and boost forecasts for rate hikes next year.\nTo add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on Fox News Sunday.\nThe news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.\n“When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”\nEven with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.\nThe new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.\n“There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.\n“Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3123,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693895251,"gmtCreate":1639996116577,"gmtModify":1639996117170,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","listText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","text":"Hahahaa ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693895251","repostId":"1130704419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130704419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639953553,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130704419?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市，以纪念圣诞节。假期前，耐克和美光科技周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将发布 11 月份领先经济指数，随后于周三发布 12 月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局报告了11月份的个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长 0.6%，支出预计将增长 0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数预计将在 11 月份飙升 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份的耐用品报告，这将为经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的 11 月份成屋销售和周四公布的 11 月份新屋销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布 11 月份领先经济指数。一致估计读数为 119，比 10 月份的水平高出 0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为 5%，2022 年增长率将放缓但仍然强劲的 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/21星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems 和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份的成屋销售。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年销量为640万套，略高于10月份，是今年年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度 GDP 的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 2.1%，与 11 月份的第二次估计值持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。与 11 月份的数据大致持平，预计读数为 110。由于对价格上涨以及在较小程度上对 Covid-19 变种的担忧，该指数比今年 6 月达到的疫情后峰值低 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 12 月 18 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11 月和 12 月平均每周申请失业救济人数为 225,667 人，最终达到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份的新房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后，每年新单户住宅销量为 77 万套，比 10 月份增加 2.5 万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元，均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 0.5% 和 1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数 10 月份同比上涨 4.1%，为 1991 年以来的最快增速。预计 11 月份将飙升 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用制成品新订单预计将增长 2.1%，达到 2656 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长0.6%，而10月份增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/24星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股权</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市，以纪念圣诞节。假期前，耐克和美光科技周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将发布 11 月份领先经济指数，随后于周三发布 12 月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局报告了11月份的个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长 0.6%，支出预计将增长 0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数预计将在 11 月份飙升 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份的耐用品报告，这将为经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的 11 月份成屋销售和周四公布的 11 月份新屋销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布 11 月份领先经济指数。一致估计读数为 119，比 10 月份的水平高出 0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为 5%，2022 年增长率将放缓但仍然强劲的 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/21星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems 和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份的成屋销售。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年销量为640万套，略高于10月份，是今年年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度 GDP 的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 2.1%，与 11 月份的第二次估计值持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。与 11 月份的数据大致持平，预计读数为 110。由于对价格上涨以及在较小程度上对 Covid-19 变种的担忧，该指数比今年 6 月达到的疫情后峰值低 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 12 月 18 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11 月和 12 月平均每周申请失业救济人数为 225,667 人，最终达到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份的新房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后，每年新单户住宅销量为 77 万套，比 10 月份增加 2.5 万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元，均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 0.5% 和 1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数 10 月份同比上涨 4.1%，为 1991 年以来的最快增速。预计 11 月份将飙升 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用制成品新订单预计将增长 2.1%，达到 2656 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长0.6%，而10月份增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/24星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股权</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CTAS":"信达思","GIS":"通用磨坊","KMX":"车美仕","PAYX":"沛齐","MU":"美光科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PAYX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"MU":0.9,"KMX":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699710871,"gmtCreate":1639892451992,"gmtModify":1639892452539,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahahaha","listText":"Hahahaha","text":"Hahahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699710871","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1093,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699583445,"gmtCreate":1639839423521,"gmtModify":1639839424122,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699583445","repostId":"2192754259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1372,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699583692,"gmtCreate":1639839349149,"gmtModify":1639839349743,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can","listText":"Can","text":"Can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699583692","repostId":"1106862392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106862392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639810154,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1106862392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>Cerner 股价因甲骨文 300 亿美元收购要约的报道而飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106862392","media":"The Street","summary":"Cerner Corp. -Get Cerner Corporation Report shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal repor","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">Cerner Corp.</a> -Get Cerner Corporation Report&nbsp;shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle&nbsp;</a> -Get Oracle Corporation Report&nbsp;is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">塞纳公司。</a>-《华尔街日报》报道后，Cerner Corporation 股价周五飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>-Get Oracle Corporation报道称，甲骨文公司正准备收购这家电子病历公司，交易价值高达300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&amp;A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>收购 Cerner（医生和医院用来管理和存储医疗记录的最大软件设计师）不仅将是今年最大的并购交易之一，也将是甲骨文公司历史上最大的并购交易——规模是甲骨文公司 2005 年斥资 100 亿美元收购 PeopleSoft 的 3 倍多——以及首席执行官 Safra Catz 的大胆声明，他于 2019 年独家控制了这家云和软件集团。</blockquote></p><p> Cerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October,&nbsp;has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SVB Leerrink 的数据，Cerner 在 10 月份公布的第三季度收入为 14.68 亿美元，在医疗记录市场占有 25% 的份额。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leerink 分析师斯蒂芬妮·戴维斯 (Stephanie Davis) 表示：“我们认为这笔潜在交易对 CERN 来说是一个积极因素，因为它将使该公司能够在一个更大的组织的掩护下从 EHR 向医疗保健平台过渡，并受益于溢价估值。”“我们对甲骨文股东的潜在抵制给交易公告带来风险持谨慎态度，因为这笔交易将标志着公司偏离核心的有机增长加速故事，而支票规模则意味着股东可能会被稀释。”</blockquote></p><p> Cerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.</p><p><blockquote>Cerner 股价收于 10.28 美元，即 12.9%，报 89.77 美元。甲骨文股价下跌 6.60 美元，跌幅 6.4%，至 96.62 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22804ede647ca4b70ab697475b6acc79\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following&nbsp;better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文股价上周创下历史新高，这家云和软件集团的市值约为 2900 亿美元，此前第二季度盈利好于预期，近期前景强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Oracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文的大部分收入来自其云服务和许可证支持部门，调整后的第二季度利润率为每股 1.12 美元，超出华尔街盈利预测一毛钱。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行后的世界中公司继续在混合工作解决方案上投入资金，云部门的收入突破了 75 亿美元，而总收入增长了 6%，达到 104 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Bookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.</p><p><blockquote>预订量增长速度更快，比去年增长了 11%，这让甲骨文有信心根据增长预测预测本季度收入在 107 亿至 109 亿美元之间，每股利润在 1.19 美元至 1.23 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>Cerner 股价因甲骨文 300 亿美元收购要约的报道而飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>Cerner 股价因甲骨文 300 亿美元收购要约的报道而飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 14:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">Cerner Corp.</a> -Get Cerner Corporation Report&nbsp;shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle&nbsp;</a> -Get Oracle Corporation Report&nbsp;is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">塞纳公司。</a>-《华尔街日报》报道后，Cerner Corporation 股价周五飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">甲骨文</a>-Get Oracle Corporation报道称，甲骨文公司正准备收购这家电子病历公司，交易价值高达300亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> A takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&amp;A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>收购 Cerner（医生和医院用来管理和存储医疗记录的最大软件设计师）不仅将是今年最大的并购交易之一，也将是甲骨文公司历史上最大的并购交易——规模是甲骨文公司 2005 年斥资 100 亿美元收购 PeopleSoft 的 3 倍多——以及首席执行官 Safra Catz 的大胆声明，他于 2019 年独家控制了这家云和软件集团。</blockquote></p><p> Cerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October,&nbsp;has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.</p><p><blockquote>根据 SVB Leerrink 的数据，Cerner 在 10 月份公布的第三季度收入为 14.68 亿美元，在医疗记录市场占有 25% 的份额。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leerink 分析师斯蒂芬妮·戴维斯 (Stephanie Davis) 表示：“我们认为这笔潜在交易对 CERN 来说是一个积极因素，因为它将使该公司能够在一个更大的组织的掩护下从 EHR 向医疗保健平台过渡，并受益于溢价估值。”“我们对甲骨文股东的潜在抵制给交易公告带来风险持谨慎态度，因为这笔交易将标志着公司偏离核心的有机增长加速故事，而支票规模则意味着股东可能会被稀释。”</blockquote></p><p> Cerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.</p><p><blockquote>Cerner 股价收于 10.28 美元，即 12.9%，报 89.77 美元。甲骨文股价下跌 6.60 美元，跌幅 6.4%，至 96.62 美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22804ede647ca4b70ab697475b6acc79\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following&nbsp;better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文股价上周创下历史新高，这家云和软件集团的市值约为 2900 亿美元，此前第二季度盈利好于预期，近期前景强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Oracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文的大部分收入来自其云服务和许可证支持部门，调整后的第二季度利润率为每股 1.12 美元，超出华尔街盈利预测一毛钱。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.</p><p><blockquote>随着大流行后的世界中公司继续在混合工作解决方案上投入资金，云部门的收入突破了 75 亿美元，而总收入增长了 6%，达到 104 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Bookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.</p><p><blockquote>预订量增长速度更快，比去年增长了 11%，这让甲骨文有信心根据增长预测预测本季度收入在 107 亿至 109 亿美元之间，每股利润在 1.19 美元至 1.23 美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/cerner-shares-surge-on-reports-of-30-billion-oracle-takeover-bid\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/cerner-shares-surge-on-reports-of-30-billion-oracle-takeover-bid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106862392","content_text":"Cerner Corp. -Get Cerner Corporation Report shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Oracle  -Get Oracle Corporation Report is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.\nA takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.\nCerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October, has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.\n\"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"\nCerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.\n\nOracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.\nOracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.\nCloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.\nBookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CERN":0.9,"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1163,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690440285,"gmtCreate":1639704406885,"gmtModify":1639704408248,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690440285","repostId":"1113560897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113560897","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639699755,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1113560897?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 08:09","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将维持区间震荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113560897","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-da","content":"<p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市自连续两天下跌超过 20 点或 0.7% 的下滑结束以来，在三个交易日中，有两个交易日走高。海峡时报指数目前略低于 3,130 点的平台位，但预计周五将再次走低。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian&nbsp;markets&nbsp;is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲市场的全球预测好坏参半，获利回吐——尤其是科技股——在前一天大幅上涨后推动了向下修正。欧洲股市上涨，美国股市下跌，亚洲股市紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.</p><p><blockquote>受金融股和工业股上涨影响，STI 周四小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨 13.92 点或 0.45%，收于 3,128.80 点，交易价格在 3,113.05 至 3,137.31 之间。成交量为9.41亿股，价值9.791亿新加坡元。有265只上涨，202只下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>资产中，Ascendas REIT下跌0.34%，凯德综合商业信托下跌0.50%，City Developments暴跌2.69%，Comfort DelGro暴跌1.43%，Dairy Farm International暴跌2.48%，星展集团飙升1.35%，香港置业下跌1.85%，吉宝集团上涨0.39%，华侨银行上涨0.80%，SATS上涨0.52%，胜科实业飙升3.59%，新加坡航空下跌0.20%，新加坡交易所下跌0.21%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信先进上涨0.83%，大华银行上涨1.31%，扬子江造船下跌0.77%，新加坡报业控股、丰益国际、丰树商业信托、丰树物流信托、GMA</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先优势是负面的，因为主要股指周四开盘小幅走高，但很快转跌，收盘时跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数下跌29.79点或0.08%，收于35897.64点，纳斯达克指数暴跌385.15点或2.47%，收于15180.43点，标普500指数下跌41.18点或0.87%，收于4668.67点。</blockquote></p><p> The pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街出现回调之际，交易员继续消化美联储周三的货币政策公告，该公告旨在加快缩减资产购买步伐，并预测明年加息多达三次。</blockquote></p><p> While some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些股票受益于货币政策前景的不确定性减少，但由于担心加息的影响，高增长科技股大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.</p><p><blockquote>经济消息方面，劳工部指出上周首次申请失业救济人数小幅反弹，而美联储也表示美国11月份工业生产增幅低于预期。此外，商务部表示，上个月新屋开工和建筑许可的激增幅度远超预期。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>受数据显示美国能源需求增加以及上周美国原油库存降幅大于预期的支撑，原油期货周四收高。1月份西德克萨斯中质原油期货收盘上涨1.51美元，涨幅2.1%，至每桶72.38美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将维持区间震荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将维持区间震荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">RTTNews</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 08:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>新加坡股市自连续两天下跌超过 20 点或 0.7% 的下滑结束以来，在三个交易日中，有两个交易日走高。海峡时报指数目前略低于 3,130 点的平台位，但预计周五将再次走低。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian&nbsp;markets&nbsp;is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.</p><p><blockquote>亚洲市场的全球预测好坏参半，获利回吐——尤其是科技股——在前一天大幅上涨后推动了向下修正。欧洲股市上涨，美国股市下跌，亚洲股市紧随其后。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.</p><p><blockquote>受金融股和工业股上涨影响，STI 周四小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数上涨 13.92 点或 0.45%，收于 3,128.80 点，交易价格在 3,113.05 至 3,137.31 之间。成交量为9.41亿股，价值9.791亿新加坡元。有265只上涨，202只下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>资产中，Ascendas REIT下跌0.34%，凯德综合商业信托下跌0.50%，City Developments暴跌2.69%，Comfort DelGro暴跌1.43%，Dairy Farm International暴跌2.48%，星展集团飙升1.35%，香港置业下跌1.85%，吉宝集团上涨0.39%，华侨银行上涨0.80%，SATS上涨0.52%，胜科实业飙升3.59%，新加坡航空下跌0.20%，新加坡交易所下跌0.21%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信先进上涨0.83%，大华银行上涨1.31%，扬子江造船下跌0.77%，新加坡报业控股、丰益国际、丰树商业信托、丰树物流信托、GMA</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先优势是负面的，因为主要股指周四开盘小幅走高，但很快转跌，收盘时跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数下跌29.79点或0.08%，收于35897.64点，纳斯达克指数暴跌385.15点或2.47%，收于15180.43点，标普500指数下跌41.18点或0.87%，收于4668.67点。</blockquote></p><p> The pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街出现回调之际，交易员继续消化美联储周三的货币政策公告，该公告旨在加快缩减资产购买步伐，并预测明年加息多达三次。</blockquote></p><p> While some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些股票受益于货币政策前景的不确定性减少，但由于担心加息的影响，高增长科技股大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.</p><p><blockquote>经济消息方面，劳工部指出上周首次申请失业救济人数小幅反弹，而美联储也表示美国11月份工业生产增幅低于预期。此外，商务部表示，上个月新屋开工和建筑许可的激增幅度远超预期。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>受数据显示美国能源需求增加以及上周美国原油库存降幅大于预期的支撑，原油期货周四收高。1月份西德克萨斯中质原油期货收盘上涨1.51美元，涨幅2.1%，至每桶72.38美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3250039/singapore-stock-market-expected-to-remain-rangebound.aspx\">RTTNews</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3250039/singapore-stock-market-expected-to-remain-rangebound.aspx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113560897","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.\nThe global forecast for the Asian markets is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.\nThe STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.\nFor the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.\nAmong the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.\nThe lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.\nThe Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.\nThe pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.\nWhile some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.\nIn economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.\nCrude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690640658,"gmtCreate":1639666051403,"gmtModify":1639666051959,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"It's time to give","listText":"It's time to give","text":"It's time to give","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690640658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1007,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690028187,"gmtCreate":1639615083962,"gmtModify":1639615084564,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hohoho","listText":"Hohoho","text":"Hohoho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690028187","repostId":"2191994940","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":902,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607698324,"gmtCreate":1639530566869,"gmtModify":1639530567485,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good and good","listText":"Good and good","text":"Good and good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607698324","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1190,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607036826,"gmtCreate":1639454986225,"gmtModify":1639454986813,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607036826","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal 最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌了-35%以上，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在 2021 年 2 月就警告投资者，PayPal被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股票在未来 3 年内仍有超过 -50% 的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，所以我分析了这只股票，以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock 来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在 2021 年 2 月 6 日，我制作了一个视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal (PYPL) 股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的寻求阿尔法博客上分享了那个视频。从那时起，PayPal无论从绝对角度还是相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）来说都表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我警告投资者以来，股价已下跌约 -30%，较今年最高价下跌约 -38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有任何问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可以讲。价格已经被疯狂高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙述。当时的数字毫无意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这对于中长期投资者来说，应该是一个重要的教训。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难在于投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑是这样硬连线的。自从我分享了我的2月份PayPal看跌视频以来，在Seeking Alpha报道PayPal的62篇文章中，还没有一篇“看跌”的文章被写出来。主要原因是 PayPal 的说法如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不切实际。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我当前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际下购买的价格。这与我在 2021 年 2 月确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和业务回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以 10 年 CAGR 预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来估值股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益 1) 没有足够长的历史 2) 本质上不稳定，或者 3) 周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明确的长期增长模式，这使得该股作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自 2015 年以来，还没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股可能非常适合我要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长时间、更持久的衰退期间，PayPal 的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察易贝（eBay）在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，我将继续进行我的全周期盈利分析，即使我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的确切历史数据。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回报预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估算未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，10年后我们可能预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一场衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并在2021年的预测中运行。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>从2015年到现在，PayPal的平均市盈率一直是健康的34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用 2021 年的预期盈利 4.60 美元（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为 40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年内恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的价格将会下降，10年CAGR将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪均值回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报。如果恢复时间短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪回归均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且经常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散的联系。在本节中，我们将考察企业的实际收入。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道，如果我们以今天的价格收购业务并将所有收入留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是预期收益增长率。让我们从市盈率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率/市盈率）开始。目前的市盈率约为+2.46%。我喜欢这样想，如果我现在以100美元收购该公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年将从投资中获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估算公司在此期间的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率，并将该增长率应用于未来 10 年来做到这一点。这包括计算2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时间段内发生的任何股票回购（因为减少股票会增加每股收益，因为股票减少）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的比例，回购看起来比实际大得多，这里没有太多需要调整的地方。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此两者都不需要盈利增长下降来调整。这使得估计 PayPal 的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计 PayPal 的盈利增长约为 +23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，这就是我的保守主义在问自己“出于估值目的，未来 10 年的合理预期是多少？”对于企业来说，在整整十年内每年增长超过20%的收益是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年中已经这样做了）。因此，我在将所有长期远期盈利增长预测用于估值时，将其上限设定为 20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高的费用的方法。因此，对于这次估值练习，我将盈利增长假设限制在 20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将把这个增长率应用于当前的收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年CAGR估计。我的想法是，如果我花100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长率，此后10年，这笔金额将以+20.00%的速度每年增长。我想知道10年后我的100美元投资总共有多少钱，我计算大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我把增长率输入复合年增长率计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务收益回报的 10 年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10 年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要来源：市场情绪回报或企业盈利回报。如果我们假设市场情绪在未来 10 年内恢复到上一个周期的平均值，那么PayPal的复合年增长率将达到 -1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的 10 年复合年增长率应该在 +5.85% 左右。如果我们把两者放在一起，我们得到的预期10年全周期CAGR为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对这类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：高于12%的CAGR是买入，低于4%的预期CAGR是卖出，4%到12%之间是持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强进入“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意根据收益购买具有安全边际的股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看待 PayPal 的估值，以便我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用我在本文中使用的相同假设和输入，从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股 126.50 美元至 164.00 美元。我目前的购买价格（包括安全边际）是 112.10 美元。低于该价格购买的投资者很有可能在中期内获得股票的丰厚回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和 2022 年，我将开始提前预测 PayPal 2022 年的收益。目前，分析师预计 2022 年每股收益为 5.25 美元。如果 PayPal 的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高 PayPal 的估值，并将其公允价值范围提高到每股 145.00 美元至 187.50 美元，安全边际买入价为每股 128.00 美元。当然，这是假设分析师保持对 2022 年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这还意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内继续在当前价格附近交易价格，它就已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上端。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一类型的分析。对于某些具有快速利润增长势头的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析，以帮助识别快速增长的企业，这些企业可能永远不会变得便宜到仅仅根据收益来收购。这种分析方法是我的私人服务周期投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于 PayPal 的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享那种“买入价格”分析产生的，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析法检查PayPal时，它产生的买入价为 144.90 美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间位置。这是假设 PayPal 的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，并且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到 2022 年 2 月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约一年后我就其高估值向投资者发出警告。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的下滑是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的 PayPal 股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他高估值科技股也会经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能会在 2022 年下跌。对于跑赢大盘这类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化投资的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票简单地停滞几年而一事无成，也有少数股票设法保持上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal所经历的那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604113071,"gmtCreate":1639358428715,"gmtModify":1639358429270,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Can","listText":"Can","text":"Can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604113071","repostId":"1175891189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175891189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639354864,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175891189?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022 年持有苹果股票的 2 个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175891189","media":"TheStreet","summary":"As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform st","content":"<p>As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年接近尾声，投资者似乎有信心苹果股票将在新的一年继续强劲表现。以下是他们可能是对的两个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock&nbsp;is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument&nbsp;that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>随着 2022 年的到来，华尔街分析师继续争论苹果股票是否值得买入。最近，我提出了看跌论点，如果被证明是正确的，可能会预测股价下跌约 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.</p><p><blockquote>但目前投资者似乎站在多头一边，因为 AAPL 股价继续创下新高。今天，我来谈谈分析师最近提出的两个关键原因，这两个原因表明苹果股票可能是新的一年的不错选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e0accd2eec6d8660139f01d4786050\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 13、苹果手表和AirPods Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: not all about the holiday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：不全是关于假期</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent headlines have highlighted&nbsp;the expected performance of the iPhone&nbsp;in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point&nbsp;contradicted earlier Wall Street projections&nbsp;for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最近的头条新闻突出了iPhone在当前假期的预期表现。彭博社暗示需求放缓，原因是供应商涉嫌取消订单。这一数据点与华尔街早些时候对当前购物季 iPhone 出货量高于预期的预测相矛盾。</blockquote></p><p> But DigiTimes Taiwan has recently&nbsp;shifted&nbsp;the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>但台湾数字时代最近将注意力转移到了长期。据该出版物称，苹果希望 “明年上半年 iPhone 出货量[增加]30%，更大的目标是在 2022 年超过 3 亿部 iPhone 出货量”。</blockquote></p><p> If confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果得到证实，这将代表着同比的巨大改善，尤其是在今年的前几个月。请记住（下图），这家库比蒂诺公司在2021年初放弃了iPhone销售，为2022年的增长设定了非常高的门槛。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee90d77969b11205181863715e8ab4f1\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：F19 以来 iPhone 收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我要警告读者，不要过分依赖关于iPhone销售的非官方公告。除了谣言的可靠性问题之外，出货量增加的假设可能是对苹果提高 iPhone 产量以应对供应链限制的误读。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Glass: the next big thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果玻璃：下一件大事</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been&nbsp;labeling&nbsp;the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.</p><p><blockquote>2022 年持有 AAPL 的另一个关键原因可能是推出全新的产品类别。Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）一直将这款新设备称为 “苹果眼镜”，这是该公司首次尝试打入 AR/VR（增强和虚拟现实）领域。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯先生更进一步，估计了新产品对苹果股价的影响。据这位分析师称，该产品的推出 “最终可能会使股票的每股价值增加约 20 美元”。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested&nbsp;that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什并不是唯一一个持乐观评估的人。摩根士丹利已经表示，苹果将于 2022 年推出混合现实设备，这将是备受争议的元宇宙最终起飞的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果股票达到每股 175 美元的历史新高，但我仍然看好该名称。在我看来，苹果作为消费科技领域最重要参与者的地位是投资论点的核心。</blockquote></p><p> However, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>不过，请记住，在 iPhone 时代（即自 2007 年以来），以最高价购买苹果公司的一年远期回报率 “仅 ”为 25%。相比之下，当该股在下跌 10% 后被买入时，平均年涨幅为 46%，要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> From current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从目前的水平来看，我认为投资者应该预期获得比在股价下跌时买入更低的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022 年持有苹果股票的 2 个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022 年持有苹果股票的 2 个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年接近尾声，投资者似乎有信心苹果股票将在新的一年继续强劲表现。以下是他们可能是对的两个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock&nbsp;is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument&nbsp;that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>随着 2022 年的到来，华尔街分析师继续争论苹果股票是否值得买入。最近，我提出了看跌论点，如果被证明是正确的，可能会预测股价下跌约 18%。</blockquote></p><p> But investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.</p><p><blockquote>但目前投资者似乎站在多头一边，因为 AAPL 股价继续创下新高。今天，我来谈谈分析师最近提出的两个关键原因，这两个原因表明苹果股票可能是新的一年的不错选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e0accd2eec6d8660139f01d4786050\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 13、苹果手表和AirPods Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: not all about the holiday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：不全是关于假期</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent headlines have highlighted&nbsp;the expected performance of the iPhone&nbsp;in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point&nbsp;contradicted earlier Wall Street projections&nbsp;for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最近的头条新闻突出了iPhone在当前假期的预期表现。彭博社暗示需求放缓，原因是供应商涉嫌取消订单。这一数据点与华尔街早些时候对当前购物季 iPhone 出货量高于预期的预测相矛盾。</blockquote></p><p> But DigiTimes Taiwan has recently&nbsp;shifted&nbsp;the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>但台湾数字时代最近将注意力转移到了长期。据该出版物称，苹果希望 “明年上半年 iPhone 出货量[增加]30%，更大的目标是在 2022 年超过 3 亿部 iPhone 出货量”。</blockquote></p><p> If confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果得到证实，这将代表着同比的巨大改善，尤其是在今年的前几个月。请记住（下图），这家库比蒂诺公司在2021年初放弃了iPhone销售，为2022年的增长设定了非常高的门槛。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee90d77969b11205181863715e8ab4f1\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图 2：F19 以来 iPhone 收入增长。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我要警告读者，不要过分依赖关于iPhone销售的非官方公告。除了谣言的可靠性问题之外，出货量增加的假设可能是对苹果提高 iPhone 产量以应对供应链限制的误读。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Glass: the next big thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果玻璃：下一件大事</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been&nbsp;labeling&nbsp;the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.</p><p><blockquote>2022 年持有 AAPL 的另一个关键原因可能是推出全新的产品类别。Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）一直将这款新设备称为 “苹果眼镜”，这是该公司首次尝试打入 AR/VR（增强和虚拟现实）领域。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯先生更进一步，估计了新产品对苹果股价的影响。据这位分析师称，该产品的推出 “最终可能会使股票的每股价值增加约 20 美元”。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested&nbsp;that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什并不是唯一一个持乐观评估的人。摩根士丹利已经表示，苹果将于 2022 年推出混合现实设备，这将是备受争议的元宇宙最终起飞的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果股票达到每股 175 美元的历史新高，但我仍然看好该名称。在我看来，苹果作为消费科技领域最重要参与者的地位是投资论点的核心。</blockquote></p><p> However, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>不过，请记住，在 iPhone 时代（即自 2007 年以来），以最高价购买苹果公司的一年远期回报率 “仅 ”为 25%。相比之下，当该股在下跌 10% 后被买入时，平均年涨幅为 46%，要好得多。</blockquote></p><p> From current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从目前的水平来看，我认为投资者应该预期获得比在股价下跌时买入更低的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/2-reasons-to-own-apple-stock-in-2022-iphone-apple-glass\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/2-reasons-to-own-apple-stock-in-2022-iphone-apple-glass","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175891189","content_text":"As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.\nWall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.\nBut investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.\niPhone: not all about the holiday\nThe recent headlines have highlighted the expected performance of the iPhone in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point contradicted earlier Wall Street projections for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.\nBut DigiTimes Taiwan has recently shifted the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”\nIf confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.\nFigure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.\nI would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.\nApple Glass: the next big thing\nThe other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been labeling the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.\nMr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.\nWedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nEven as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.\nHowever, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.\nFrom current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604966442,"gmtCreate":1639313205045,"gmtModify":1639313359710,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Q2 only","listText":"Q2 only","text":"Q2 only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604966442","repostId":"2190719916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1213,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825651463,"gmtCreate":1634223173713,"gmtModify":1634223454539,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>peace","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>peace","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$peace","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3290d92f227c5e951afc1a55f64df206","width":"1080","height":"3344"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825651463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1834,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4133229896288880","authorId":"4133229896288880","name":"2885ac2e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4133229896288880","authorIdStr":"4133229896288880"},"content":"那么准确啊你不是发了","text":"那么准确啊你不是发了","html":"那么准确啊你不是发了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103955616,"gmtCreate":1619744738135,"gmtModify":1631891962951,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Comment &amp; like","listText":"Comment &amp; like","text":"Comment & like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103955616","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133287823,"gmtCreate":1621754355262,"gmtModify":1631891962986,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hi like and comment","listText":"Hi like and comment","text":"Hi like and comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":5,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133287823","repostId":"2137909294","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":559,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116464086,"gmtCreate":1622815917245,"gmtModify":1631891963009,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> APES ARE U CALLING ME?","listText":"<a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$</a> APES ARE U CALLING ME?","text":"$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ APES ARE U CALLING ME?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116464086","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":544,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":134793960,"gmtCreate":1622257594750,"gmtModify":1631891963026,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like and comment!","listText":"Like and comment!","text":"Like and comment!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/134793960","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":662,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880944975,"gmtCreate":1631014676997,"gmtModify":1631890221689,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Everyday see this news","listText":"Everyday see this news","text":"Everyday see this news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880944975","repostId":"1130130857","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130130857","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631007146,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130130857?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊!在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔 500 指数上涨了 20%，连续七个月上涨，并一路创下 50 多个新高。此外，去年市场从 2020 年 3 月的低点反弹了 68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨速度。刺激支出已见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。更重要的是，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。对于越来越昂贵的股票持有者来说，这些都不太可能满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，做好准备迎接波动性下跌，这相互矛盾地推动巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。“Nuveen 全球股票首席投资官赛拉-马利克（Saira Malik）说：”万物反弹已经过去。“这不会是一股急剧上涨的经济潮流，让所有船只都离开这里”。</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识。<i>巴伦</i>最近咨询过。所有人都看到标普500在周四收盘价 4536 点附近收盘。他们的平均目标：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>与最近的趋势相比，明年的涨幅也显得微不足道。该集团预计 2022 年标普500将再增长 6%，升至 4,800 左右。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的 21 倍，债券收益率很低，现金收益率在考虑通货膨胀因素后几乎为零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察家建议关注 “优质 ”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、停滞不前的备忘录股和数字世界的狗狗币。在股票中，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不佳，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅反弹是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免 Covid 大流行病造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美国央行每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并将投资者推向包括股票在内的风险更高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买规模，此举可能会动摇各种风险资产。“摩根士丹利（atMorgan Stanley）首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师迈克-威尔逊（Mike Wilson）说：”对我们来说，这很简单：缩减规模就是收紧规模。“这是（美联储）远离最大限度宽松的第一步。他们这次对此非常精打细算，但底线是这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>战略家们指出，政府的刺激支出也达到了顶峰。每周 300 美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于 9 月 6 日到期。尽管国会似乎可能会在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激计划相比，近期经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约 5500 亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分摊多年。基础设施刺激措施将在短期内对占美国国内生产总值增长近 70% 的消费支出的提振作用，远不及去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济状况。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>民主党批准的预算法案只应遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施的支出，以及其他政党优先事项。国会可能会投票提高对企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这笔支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他充满政治色彩的问题同样可能导致股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计支出法案，以避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>十月关闭。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对新冠肺炎德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要局限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本看法并不包括新一波会破坏经济增长的封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是最近通货膨胀一直非常火爆。美国消费者价格指数在 6 月和 7 月均以年化 5.4% 的速度上涨--美联储的评级是暂时的，尽管其他人并不确定。战略家们站在鲍威尔一边；他们预计明年通货膨胀率将大幅下降。他们的预测降幅在 2.5% 至 3.5% 之间，他们认为这对消费者和企业来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，高于 2.5% 的通胀率，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着现在超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德多资产策略集团（BlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group）收入投资主管迈克尔-弗雷德里克斯（Michael Fredericks）说：”我们认为通胀将继续高于金融危机以来的水平，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们就很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。“因此，债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将是逐步发生的。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比目前的水平高出约 35 个基点，即百分之一个百分点，但低于 2021 年 3 月高点时达到的 1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10 年期国债收益率可能达到 2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不算大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股市来说意义更大。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会给股票估值带来压力，原因有二。收益率较高的债券会给股票带来竞争，如果按较高的利率贴现，公司未来的收益在目前就毫无价值。尽管如此，2% 左右的 10 年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至 Covid 之前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师也认为标普500持有的市盈率远高于其 30 年平均水平 16 倍远期市盈率。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破了 23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要 10 年期国债收益率保持在 2% 范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够保持在高位。在收益率大幅上升或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力之前，回到 16 倍的长期平均水平是不可能的。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>他表示，如果收益率飙升至 2% 或 2.25% 以上，投资者可能会开始更认真地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">状态</a>Street'schief 投资组合策略师 Gaurav Mallik： “我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10 年期国债收益率）超过 2%，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出股市的估值风险是不对称的： “他说：”考虑到增长放缓和我们在周期中的位置，市盈率不太可能上升，而且很有可能下降 10% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充说，如果 16 到 23 倍的远期市盈率是这个范围，“你已经处于这个范围的高端了。潜在的风险大于回报”。</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率的压缩，这使得利润增长之路更加重要。在经历了去年的盈利低迷之后，策略师平均预计标普500今年的盈利将跃升 46%，达到约 204 美元。随后，2022 年可能会上涨 9%，达到约 222.50 美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是 2022 年联邦企业税率的提高。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定，投资者有望听到更多关于潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25% 的联邦企业利润率可能是一个妥协数字，高于 2018 年以来的 21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的 28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约 5%。随着民主党和解法案的临近，该指数可能会下降类似的幅度，但影响应仅限于最初的修正。与 2017 年 12 月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>撇开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应忽视大局： 美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。“马利克说：”周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长至少将持续到 2022 年，我们希望偏向具有这种风险敞口的资产。</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将非常火爆。当国内生产总值增长高于平均水平时，价值就会战胜增长，周期性股票会战胜防御性股票。”- Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场 道富银行策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和技术。这种方法既包括银行和矿业等经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场（RBC Capital Markets）美国股票策略主管洛里-卡尔瓦西纳（Lori Calvasina）同样采取杠铃策略，同时投资周期性和成长性。她喜欢的行业是能源、金融和科技。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”金融和能源领域的估值仍然比成长型行业（如科技或非必需消费品）更具吸引力。“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的 Covid 浪潮......今明两年我们将迎来火热的经济，传统上，当 GDP 增长高于平均水平时，价值战胜增长，周期性战胜防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是至关重要的，尤其是进入 2022 年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长率。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>“卡尔瓦西纳说：”历史的剧本是，从经济衰退中走出来，往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量超越业绩，然后领导层会回到高质量。“但从低质量到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师倾向于经济敏感股票和稳定增长股票的组合，包括科技股。金融股应该表现良好，尤其是在债券收益率上升的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管具有质量属性的股票今年夏天的表现优于大盘，但根据<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析认为，自去年11月首次报道积极的疫苗消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>“贝莱德（BlackRock）的弗雷德里克斯（Fredericks）说：”我们正在进入一个周期中期环境，此时潜在的经济增长依然强劲，但势头开始放缓。“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤为出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融业，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的必需消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>该公司的股票策略主管克里斯托弗-哈维（Christopher Harvey）认为，大流行后的受益者和防御性敞口相结合才是最佳选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票--在今年秋季市场不确定或压力时期，这些股票的表现应该会优于平均水平--并且 “Covid贝塔值 ”较高，即对大流行病的好消息或坏消息敏感。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师不得不将这些股票评级相当于买入。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”近期存在经济不确定性、利率不确定性和 Covid 风险，一般来说，9 月前后我们正处于一年中季节性疲软的时期。“如果我们能在低体积和高 Covid beta 之间取得平衡，我们就能减轻即将到来的许多不确定性和波动性，这些催化剂的时间安排。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望有这种[重新开放的风险敞口]”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的高Covid贝塔值低波动性股票名单包括苹果公司（AAPL）、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">伊克维亚</a>控股公司 (IQV) 和马斯科 (MAS)。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。景顺 KBW 银行交易所交易基金 (KBWB) 为美国该行业提供广泛的投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“哈维说：”我们喜欢估值[和]信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且 Covid 贝塔系数也更高。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>更便宜的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股票市场的其他大部分相反，更高的利率将成为银行的推动力，然后银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>威尔逊说。“如今，与其他行业相比，医疗保健行业每单位增长的成本要低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，医疗保健行业为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”Health insurerHumana (HUM) 将威尔逊的 “新鲜资金买入清单”评级为买入<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen 的 Malik 也将目光投向了医疗保健行业，即制药和生物技术行业，以获得价格相对较低的增长机会。她指出，Seagen (SGEN) 专注于肿瘤药物，可能是制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维 (ABBV)，该公司的远期市盈率为 8 倍，股息收益率为 4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层可以限制损害，并看到这家价值 2000 亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都经历了艰难的时期。Seagen 上周下跌超过 8%，至 152 美元左右，原因是有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官最近出售了大量股票。周三，艾伯维股价下跌 7%，至 112.27 美元，此前美国食品和药物管理局要求 JAK 抑制剂贴上新的警告标签，JAK 抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，包括以下成分之一<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生公司 (JNJ) 和思科系统公司 (CSCO) 是其他通过<i>巴伦</i>质量属性屏幕。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳步上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点回落，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191629963,"gmtCreate":1620875840352,"gmtModify":1631891963062,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Let's go fishing","listText":"Let's go fishing","text":"Let's go fishing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191629963","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":680,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375667007,"gmtCreate":1619334415509,"gmtModify":1631891963069,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like comment thx","listText":"Like comment thx","text":"Like comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375667007","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":725,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693895251,"gmtCreate":1639996116577,"gmtModify":1639996117170,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","listText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","text":"Hahahaa ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693895251","repostId":"1130704419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130704419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639953553,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1130704419?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市，以纪念圣诞节。假期前，耐克和美光科技周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将发布 11 月份领先经济指数，随后于周三发布 12 月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局报告了11月份的个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长 0.6%，支出预计将增长 0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数预计将在 11 月份飙升 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份的耐用品报告，这将为经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的 11 月份成屋销售和周四公布的 11 月份新屋销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布 11 月份领先经济指数。一致估计读数为 119，比 10 月份的水平高出 0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为 5%，2022 年增长率将放缓但仍然强劲的 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/21星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems 和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份的成屋销售。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年销量为640万套，略高于10月份，是今年年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度 GDP 的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 2.1%，与 11 月份的第二次估计值持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。与 11 月份的数据大致持平，预计读数为 110。由于对价格上涨以及在较小程度上对 Covid-19 变种的担忧，该指数比今年 6 月达到的疫情后峰值低 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 12 月 18 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11 月和 12 月平均每周申请失业救济人数为 225,667 人，最终达到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份的新房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后，每年新单户住宅销量为 77 万套，比 10 月份增加 2.5 万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元，均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 0.5% 和 1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数 10 月份同比上涨 4.1%，为 1991 年以来的最快增速。预计 11 月份将飙升 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用制成品新订单预计将增长 2.1%，达到 2656 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长0.6%，而10月份增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/24星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股权</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>耐克、美光、黑莓、CarMax 和其他投资者本周值得关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市，以纪念圣诞节。假期前，耐克和美光科技周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将发布 11 月份领先经济指数，随后于周三发布 12 月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局报告了11月份的个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长 0.6%，支出预计将增长 0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数预计将在 11 月份飙升 4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份的耐用品报告，这将为经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的 11 月份成屋销售和周四公布的 11 月份新屋销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/20星期一</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布 11 月份领先经济指数。一致估计读数为 119，比 10 月份的水平高出 0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为 5%，2022 年增长率将放缓但仍然强劲的 2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/21星期二</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems 和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12月22日星期三</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份的成屋销售。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年销量为640万套，略高于10月份，是今年年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas 和 Paychex 在评级举行会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度 GDP 的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节性调整后的年增长率为 2.1%，与 11 月份的第二次估计值持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>会议委员会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。与 11 月份的数据大致持平，预计读数为 110。由于对价格上涨以及在较小程度上对 Covid-19 变种的担忧，该指数比今年 6 月达到的疫情后峰值低 15%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四 12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至 12 月 18 日当周的首次申请失业救济人数。11 月和 12 月平均每周申请失业救济人数为 225,667 人，最终达到大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份的新房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后，每年新单户住宅销量为 77 万套，比 10 月份增加 2.5 万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元，均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10 月份的涨幅分别为 0.5% 和 1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标--核心 PCE 价格指数 10 月份同比上涨 4.1%，为 1991 年以来的最快增速。预计 11 月份将飙升 4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用制成品新订单预计将增长 2.1%，达到 2656 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长0.6%，而10月份增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>12/24星期五</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股权</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CTAS":"信达思","GIS":"通用磨坊","KMX":"车美仕","PAYX":"沛齐","MU":"美光科技",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PAYX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"MU":0.9,"KMX":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3314,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146647378,"gmtCreate":1626078971794,"gmtModify":1631891963078,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>approach with caution","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>approach with caution","text":"$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$approach with caution","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146647378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1038,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}