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Ignis

Ignis

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2021-10-14

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$peace

2021-04-30

Comment & like

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2021-05-23

Hi like and comment

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2021-06-04

$AMC Entertainment(AMC)$ APES ARE U CALLING ME?

2021-05-29

Like and comment!

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2021-09-07

Everyday see this news

Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>

2021-05-13

Let's go fishing

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2021-04-25

Like comment thx

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2021-12-20

Hahahaa ok

Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>

2021-07-12

$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$approach with caution

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(the “Company” or “JD.com”) (Nasdaq: JD; HKEX: 9618), a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider, today announced that the Company’s Board of Directors has approved modifications to its existing share repurchase program adopted in March 2020, pursuant to which the repurchase authorization has increased from US$2.0 billion to US$3.0 billion and has been extended until March 17, 2024.</p><p><blockquote>北京，2021年12月29日(环球通讯社)--领先的供应链技术和服务提供商京东公司（以下简称“公司”或“京东”）（纳斯达克：JD；香港交易所：9618）今天宣布，公司董事会已批准对2020年3月通过的现有股票回购计划进行修改，根据该计划，回购授权从20亿美元增加至30亿美元，并延长至2024年3月17日。</blockquote></p><p> <b>About JD.com</b></p><p><blockquote><b>关于京东</b></blockquote></p><p> JD.com is a leading supply chain-based technology and service provider. The company’s cutting-edge retail infrastructure seeks to enable consumers to buy whatever they want, whenever and wherever they want it. The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.</p><p><blockquote>京东是一家领先的供应链技术和服务提供商。该公司尖端的零售基础设施旨在使消费者能够随时随地购买他们想要的任何东西。该公司已向合作伙伴、品牌和其他行业开放其技术和基础设施，作为其零售即服务产品的一部分，以帮助推动一系列行业的生产力和创新。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/29/2358620/0/en/JD-com-Upsizes-and-Extends-Authorization-Under-Existing-Share-Repurchase-Program.html\">GlobeNewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09618":"京东集团-SW","JD":"京东"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/12/29/2358620/0/en/JD-com-Upsizes-and-Extends-Authorization-Under-Existing-Share-Repurchase-Program.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1116394110","content_text":"BEIJING, Dec. 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- JD.com, Inc. 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The company has opened its technology and infrastructure to partners, brands and other sectors, as part of its Retail as a Service offering to help drive productivity and innovation across a range of industries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09618":0.9,"JD":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2654,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":696153525,"gmtCreate":1640653489963,"gmtModify":1640653490562,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","listText":"[Surprised]&nbsp;","text":"[Surprised]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/696153525","repostId":"2194101666","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2521,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698762759,"gmtCreate":1640561000567,"gmtModify":1640561001219,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Escaped","listText":"Escaped","text":"Escaped","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698762759","repostId":"1144001147","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144001147","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640485026,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144001147?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-26 10:17","market":"us","language":"en","title":"A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen的处境很糟糕</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144001147","media":"InvestorPlace","summary":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, t","content":"<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股已大涨超500%。该股的上涨始于2020年12月21日之后——从那里开始……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606302653667","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen的处境很糟糕</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA Year After Announcing a Big Partnership, Ocugen Is in a Sorry State<blockquote>宣布大合作伙伴关系一年后，Ocugen的处境很糟糕</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">InvestorPlace</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-26 10:17</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there...</p><p><blockquote><div>去年，Ocugen（纳斯达克股票代码：OCGN）股票仍然是表现最好的股票之一。在此期间，该股已大涨超500%。该股的上涨始于2020年12月21日之后——从那里开始……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/\">InvestorPlace</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"source_url":"https://investorplace.com/2021/12/a-year-after-its-big-partnership-with-bharat-ocgn-stock-is-in-a-sorry-state/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144001147","content_text":"In the last year, Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN) stock is still among the top performers. During this period, the stock has surged by over 500%. The stock’s ascent began after Dec. 21, 2020 — starting from there, the stock is up over 1,600%.\nHowever, it’s worth noting that OCGN stock was trading well below one dollar before it stitched a partnership with Bharat Biotech. The companies announced plans to begin manufacturing Covid-19 vaccines in the U.S. on Dec. 22 last year.\nBeyond the news of this partnership, there has been little to cheer for investors. OCGN stock traded at all-time highs of $18.77 in February and reached slightly lower peaks in May and November. The stock traded at $5.12 at the start of Dec. 23.\nOcugen will continue to underperform going forward. Even after the downtrend in the last few months, OCGN stock should be avoided.\nLet’s talk about the reasons to be bearish.\nFDA Approval Remains Elusive\nPfizer(NYSE:PFE) and Moderna(NASDAQ:MRNA) have been leaders in the vaccine race in the U.S. In a country where more than 70% of the population has already been vaccinated, Ocugen has yet to secure an approval from the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.\nBack in June, the biotech company’s application for emergency use authorization was rejected by the FDA. The recommendation by the FDA was to file for a biologics license application, which implies full approval.\nIn November, Ocugen announced that the FDA has “issued a clinical hold on the Company’s Investigational New Drug application (IND) to evaluate the COVID-19 vaccine candidate.” The FDA will be identifying the specific deficiencies that form a basis for the clinical hold. Once Ocugen addresses these deficiencies, there will be some progress.\nThe key point is that it’s been over a year since Ocugen announced the partnership with Bharat Biotech. The company has still been unsuccessful from an approval perspective.\nIn July, Ocugen had also initiated a rolling submission to Health Canada for the vaccine. There is no positive news on that front either.\nLet’s imagine a scenario where Ocugen receives an approval for vaccine use in Q1 2022. This is very unlikely. However, even in an optimistic case scenario, Ocugen needs to compete in a market where vaccination percentage is high. There is unlikely to be a case for strong revenue and cash flow growth.\nCan Omicron Provide a Lifeline for OCGN Stock?\nThe omicron variant has been a cause of concern for governments globally. Ocugen and partner Bharat Biotech are currently studying the effectiveness of the vaccine against the variant.\nIf the vaccine proves to be effective, can it be a game-changer for Ocugen? Most likely, no.\nFirst and foremost, Moderna has announced that its Covid-19 booster increases neutralizing antibodies 37-fold against Omicron variant.\nFurthermore, Pfizer has announced that a third dose increases the “neutralizing antibody by 25-fold compared to two doses against the Omicron variant.”\nClearly, the leading vaccine makers have an edge. Even if Ocugen announces that its vaccine is effective against the omicron variant, the stock is unlikely to trend higher.\nPeople who have already taken two shots of Moderna or Pfizer are unlikely to pursue a booster shot with Ocugen. Additionally, Ocugen is still struggling for approval.\nIt’s also worth noting that Ocugen needs to share revenue with Bharat Biotech. The visibility for healthy cash flows is therefore very unlikely.\nOCGN Stock Will Trend Lower\nOCGN stock is likely to continue trending lower in the coming months. Without an approval, the company is rapidly losing out on any revenue and cash flow potential.\nThe company is building a pipeline of drugs for various indications. However, the pipeline for various indications is still at a pre-clinical stage.\nThe stock trend will therefore be dictated by the outcome of Covid-19 vaccine approval and revenue potential. Things seem bleak on that front.\nIt also seems unlikely that Ocugen has a capability to expand the vaccine partnership with Bharat Biotech to other countries.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3159,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698459379,"gmtCreate":1640505011408,"gmtModify":1640505012011,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noted bye","listText":"Noted bye","text":"Noted bye","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698459379","repostId":"2193178197","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698223389,"gmtCreate":1640412779820,"gmtModify":1640412780415,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahha","listText":"Hahahha","text":"Hahahha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698223389","repostId":"2193317305","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3044,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698148750,"gmtCreate":1640326549575,"gmtModify":1640327556288,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698148750","repostId":"1117383431","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1117383431","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1640317475,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1117383431?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-24 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117383431","media":"Markets insider","summary":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year","content":"<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认了今年的几个错误。以下是他2021年的8大亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特今年透露了两次大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官为他的税务行为辩护<b>在苹果上发了大财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特2021年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并对今年市场上猖獗的投机行为表示遗憾。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼Berkshire Hathaway首席执行官还经受住了税务曝光，辞去了Bill&amp;Melinda Gates基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特这一年的8大亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份更新了第四季度投资组合，以时尚的方式开启了新的一年。他透露了41亿美元的雪佛龙股份和86亿美元的威瑞森头寸，回答了他最近几个月一直在购买哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire还将其投资组合中最大的持仓苹果削减了6%。此外，该公司在2020年削减了在摩根大通、PNC和M&amp;T银行的头寸后，将其持有的富国银行股份减半，并退出了这些银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东信</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发表了致股东的年度信。这位投资者承认，他在2016年收购Precision Castparts时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣传了伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014年5月3日，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在贸易展上拿着冰淇淋与记者交谈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警报，并承认在伯克希尔5月份的年度股东大会期间买入了“马马虎虎”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人将股市视为赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售Costco可能是错误，并建议他通过在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸来避免救助这些公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税收失败</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，ProPublica获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报告称该投资者在2014年至2018年间仅缴纳了2500万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特受到了批评。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护说，他承诺将超过99%的净资产捐给慈善事业，并且自2006年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，巴菲特辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会的职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五家慈善机构捐赠总计41亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在6月份播出的CNBC采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人尖锐地批评了Robinhood，芒格在Archegos Capital崩溃后呼吁对衍生品交易进行更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度财报突显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和企业的难度。这促使他储备现金并加大股票回购力度。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日的一年里，该集团净出售了70亿美元的股票，并透露今年有望回购创纪录的250亿美元股票，并将现金储备增至前所未有的1490亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他在苹果的投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至12月中旬，伯克希尔的持股价值已超过1500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere are Warren Buffett's 8 highlights of 2021<blockquote>以下是沃伦·巴菲特2021年的8大亮点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Markets insider</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-24 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了两个大赌注，为自己的纳税习惯辩护，并承认了今年的几个错误。以下是他2021年的8大亮点。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Warren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.</li>  <li>The Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices<b>&nbsp;and made a fortune on Apple.</b></li>  <li><b>Here are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.</b></li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45e08085f6ee8a3866f2c0f78fdc0f63\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett.</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>沃伦·巴菲特今年透露了两次大赌注，承认了错误，并抱怨投机者。</li><li>伯克希尔哈撒韦公司首席执行官为他的税务行为辩护<b>在苹果上发了大财。</b></li><li><b>以下是亿万富翁投资者巴菲特2021年的八大亮点。</b></li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Warren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.</p><p><blockquote>沃伦·巴菲特透露了数十亿美元的投资，承认犯了几个错误，并对今年市场上猖獗的投机行为表示遗憾。</blockquote></p><p> The renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.</p><p><blockquote>这位著名投资者兼Berkshire Hathaway首席执行官还经受住了税务曝光，辞去了Bill&amp;Melinda Gates基金会受托人的职务，反思了他与查理·芒格数十年的友谊，并看到他在苹果的投资价值飙升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是巴菲特这一年的8大亮点：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Chevron and Verizon</b></p><p><blockquote><b>雪佛龙和威瑞森</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2a6a660c35780e87560d9d7518a755bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>CNBC</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>CNBC</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett started the year in style with his&nbsp;fourth-quarter portfolio update&nbsp;in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in&nbsp;Chevron&nbsp;and a $8.6 billion position in&nbsp;Verizon, answering the question of which&nbsp;mystery stocks&nbsp;he had been buying in recent months.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份更新了第四季度投资组合，以时尚的方式开启了新的一年。他透露了41亿美元的雪佛龙股份和86亿美元的威瑞森头寸，回答了他最近几个月一直在购买哪些神秘股票的问题。</blockquote></p><p> Berkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its&nbsp;Wells Fargo&nbsp;holdings and exited&nbsp;JPMorgan,PNC, and&nbsp;M&amp;T&nbsp;after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>Berkshire还将其投资组合中最大的持仓苹果削减了6%。此外，该公司在2020年削减了在摩根大通、PNC和M&amp;T银行的头寸后，将其持有的富国银行股份减半，并退出了这些银行。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The shareholder letter</b></p><p><blockquote><b>股东信</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ce8d9ea154fd9ca33192159634e60af4\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;published&nbsp;his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特在二月份发表了致股东的年度信。这位投资者承认，他在2016年收购Precision Castparts时支付了过高的价格，大肆宣传了伯克希尔的一系列子公司，并将他的长期股东与涌向模因股票和加密货币等时尚资产的投机者进行了对比。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The annual meeting</b></p><p><blockquote><b>年会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6f9312fb972e2aa68627183025b2f91e\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Berkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>2014年5月3日，在内布拉斯加州奥马哈举行的公司年会上，伯克希尔·哈撒韦公司首席执行官沃伦·巴菲特在贸易展上拿着冰淇淋与记者交谈。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's&nbsp;annual shareholder meeting&nbsp;in May.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特警告菜鸟交易员不要自大，哀叹市场缺乏便宜货，敲响通胀警报，并承认在伯克希尔5月份的年度股东大会期间买入了“马马虎虎”的股票。</blockquote></p><p> The investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling&nbsp;Costco&nbsp;were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.</p><p><blockquote>这位投资者还抱怨说，越来越多的人将股市视为赌场。此外，他承认削减苹果股份和出售Costco可能是错误，并建议他通过在2020年4月退出美国“四大”航空公司的头寸来避免救助这些公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The tax fracas</b></p><p><blockquote><b>税收失败</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/61a44f30c0a7e35f28da432b35a28cf3\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.</p><p><blockquote>6月份，ProPublica获得了一些最富有的美国人的纳税申报表，并报告称该投资者在2014年至2018年间仅缴纳了2500万美元的联邦所得税，巴菲特受到了批评。</blockquote></p><p> The Berkshire boss&nbsp;defended himself&nbsp;by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.</p><p><blockquote>这位伯克希尔老板为自己辩护说，他承诺将超过99%的净资产捐给慈善事业，并且自2006年以来已经捐赠了大约一半的伯克希尔“A”股。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Gates Foundation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盖茨基金会</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f51d18855fcf5c00bab6b290a5814dd9\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Paul Sakuma/AP Photo</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>保罗·佐久间/美联社照片</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett&nbsp;resigned&nbsp;as a trustee of the Bill &amp; Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.</p><p><blockquote>今年6月，巴菲特辞去了比尔及梅琳达·盖茨基金会受托人的职务。这位投资者解释说，他几乎没有参与基金会的工作，并且已经辞去了除自己以外的所有公司董事会的职务。</blockquote></p><p> He also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.</p><p><blockquote>他还强调了他每年向包括盖茨基金会在内的五家慈善机构捐赠总计41亿美元的资金。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friendship with Charlie Munger</b></p><p><blockquote><b>与查理·芒格的友谊</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad9020f65431108ca2a38c0e654349a2\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>SCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>斯科特·摩根/路透社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a&nbsp;CNBC interview&nbsp;that aired in June.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特和他的商业伙伴查理·芒格在6月份播出的CNBC采访中讨论了他们数十年的友谊。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The pair sharply criticized&nbsp;Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after&nbsp;Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.</p><p><blockquote>两人尖锐地批评了Robinhood，芒格在Archegos Capital崩溃后呼吁对衍生品交易进行更严格的监管。巴菲特强调了芒格对他一生做出的巨大贡献。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Buybacks, cash, and stock sales</b></p><p><blockquote><b>回购、现金和股票销售</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9bfba0cfd98eca4c346f1fc53e1dd9bf\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Berkshire's&nbsp;third-quarter earnings&nbsp;underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.</p><p><blockquote>伯克希尔第三季度财报突显了巴菲特今年寻找廉价股票和企业的难度。这促使他储备现金并加大股票回购力度。</blockquote></p><p> The conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至9月30日的一年里，该集团净出售了70亿美元的股票，并透露今年有望回购创纪录的250亿美元股票，并将现金储备增至前所未有的1490亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple bet</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果赌注</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a735713e1ca5629e3e229ed80ea7fbb\" tg-width=\"790\" tg-height=\"395\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>Warren Buffett</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>沃伦·巴菲特</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Buffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.</p><p><blockquote>巴菲特今年最大的成功很可能是他在苹果的投资。</blockquote></p><p> The investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has&nbsp;surged&nbsp;by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.</p><p><blockquote>该投资者在2016年至2018年间向这家iPhone制造商投入了360亿美元。该股今年已飙升约三分之一，截至12月中旬，伯克希尔的持股价值已超过1500亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12\">Markets insider</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BRK.A":"伯克希尔","AAPL":"苹果","BRK.B":"伯克希尔B"},"source_url":"https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-stocks-portfolio-taxes-mistakes-review-2021-12","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117383431","content_text":"Warren Buffett revealed 2 big bets, defended his tax habits, and admitted several mistakes this year. Here are his 8 highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett revealed two big bets, admitted mistakes, and complained about speculators this year.\nThe Berkshire Hathaway chief defended his tax practices and made a fortune on Apple.\nHere are billionaire investor Buffett's eight highlights of 2021.\n\nWarren Buffett.\nWarren Buffett revealed a couple of billion-dollar investments, owned up to making several mistakes, and bemoaned the rampant speculation in markets this year.\nThe renowned investor and Berkshire Hathaway CEO also weathered a tax exposé, resigned as a trustee of The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, reflected on his decades-long friendship with Charlie Munger, and saw his Apple investment soared in value.\nHere are the 8 highlights of Buffett's year:\nChevron and Verizon\nCNBC\nBuffett started the year in style with his fourth-quarter portfolio update in February. He revealed a $4.1 billion stake in Chevron and a $8.6 billion position in Verizon, answering the question of which mystery stocks he had been buying in recent months.\nBerkshire also trimmed the largest position in its portfolio,Apple, by 6%. Moreover, it halved its Wells Fargo holdings and exited JPMorgan,PNC, and M&T after slashing its positions in those banks in 2020.\nThe shareholder letter\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett published his annual letter to shareholders in February. The investor admitted to overpaying when he acquired Precision Castparts in 2016, trumpeted a bunch of Berkshire's subsidiaries, and contrasted his long-term shareholders with the speculators flocking to trendy assets such as meme stocks and cryptocurrencies.\nThe annual meeting\nBerkshire Hathaway CEO Warren Buffett talks to reporters while holding an ice cream at a trade show during the company's annual meeting in Omaha, Nebraska May 3, 2014.\nBuffett warned rookie traders not to get cocky, bemoaned the lack of bargains in the market, rang the inflation alarm, and admitted to buying \"so-so\" stocks during Berkshire's annual shareholder meeting in May.\nThe investor also complained about the surge in people treating the stock market like a casino. Moreover, he acknowledged that trimming his Apple stake and selling Costco were likely mistakes, and suggested he avoided bailing out the \"big four\" US airlines by exiting his positions in them in April 2020.\nThe tax fracas\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett came under fire in June after ProPublica secured the tax returns of some of the wealthiest Americans, and reported the investor paid only $25 million in federal income tax between 2014 and 2018.\nThe Berkshire boss defended himself by noting that he's pledged to give over 99% of his net worth to philanthropic causes, and has already donated about half of his Berkshire \"A\" shares since 2006.\nThe Gates Foundation\nPaul Sakuma/AP Photo\nBuffett resigned as a trustee of the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation in June. The investor explained that he was barely involved in the foundation's work, and had already stepped down from all corporate boards except his own.\nHe also highlighted his annual donation of $4.1 billion in total to five charities, including the Gates Foundation.\nFriendship with Charlie Munger\nSCOTT MORGAN/REUTERS\nBuffett and his business partner, Charlie Munger, discussed their decades-long friendship in a CNBC interview that aired in June.\nThe pair sharply criticized Robinhood, and Munger called for tighter regulations on derivatives trading after Archegos Capital's meltdown. Buffett underlined the immense contribution that Munger has made to his life.\nBuybacks, cash, and stock sales\nWarren Buffett\nBerkshire's third-quarter earnings underlined how hard it has been for Buffett to find bargain stocks and businesses this year. That has prompted him to stockpile cash and ramp up share buybacks.\nThe conglomerate sold a net $7 billion of stock in the year to September 30, revealed it was on track to repurchase a record $25 billion of stock this year, and grew its cash pile to an unprecedented $149 billion.\nThe Apple bet\nWarren Buffett\nBuffett's biggest success this year might well be his Apple investment.\nThe investor plowed $36 billion into the iPhone maker between 2016 and 2018. The stock has surged by about a third this year, boosting the value of Berkshire's stake to more than $150 billion as of mid-December.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9,"BRK.A":0.9,"BRK.B":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2724,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691528632,"gmtCreate":1640222596934,"gmtModify":1640222597579,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Goodz","listText":"Goodz","text":"Goodz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691528632","repostId":"2193113147","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4127,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":691318520,"gmtCreate":1640136070466,"gmtModify":1640136071026,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hold on to seatbelt","listText":"Hold on to seatbelt","text":"Hold on to seatbelt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/691318520","repostId":"1130758324","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130758324","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1640097001,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130758324?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-21 22:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>因奥密克戎担忧股市连续三天暴跌后反弹道指上涨300点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130758324","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news the White House would step in to help fig","content":"<p>Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news&nbsp;the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场开盘走高，投资者权衡白宫将介入帮助抗击omicron的消息，向医院部署军事人员，并购买500项家庭检测供美国人订购。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指开盘时均上涨，扭转了前一交易日的跌势，原因是人们再次担心奥密克戎病例数量不断增加可能会破坏经济复苏并加剧通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&amp;P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨近300点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%。标普500开盘上涨近40点。</blockquote></p><p> “We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>米拉·潘迪特(Meera Pandit)表示：“我们看到风险资产出现广泛抛售，但最终如果我们考虑更长的时间，我不确定这些是否会显着改变我们对2022年投资前景。”摩根大通资产管理公司全球市场策略师告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> “On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”</p><p><blockquote>“在病毒方面，最终我们在之前的激增和之前的变种中看到的是，市场抛售往往会在一定程度上被控制在一段时间内，因此我们确实预计，随着我们越来越善于应对其中一些挑战从经济和市场的角度来看，尽管我们面临一些公共卫生挑战，但事情可能会稳定下来。”</blockquote></p><p> With&nbsp;virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to&nbsp;more quickly withdraw monetary support&nbsp;and boost forecasts for&nbsp;rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着对病毒的担忧引发更多限制和取消，围绕奥密克戎利差的担忧令交易员承压，交易员仍因美联储上周更快撤回货币支持并提高明年加息预期的鹰派转变而感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> To add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on&nbsp;Fox News Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，在参议员乔·曼钦（西弗吉尼亚州民主党人）以对通货膨胀、国债和正在进行的疫情的担忧为由，撤销了政府酝酿已久的《重建更好法案》后，投资者也在处理拜登经济议程的意外打击。周日在接受福克斯新闻频道采访时。</blockquote></p><p> The news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致太阳能和电动汽车股暴跌，导致特斯拉(TSLA)自10月份以来首次跌破900美元。该股收盘下跌3.5%，至899.94美元。</blockquote></p><p> “When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”</p><p><blockquote>潘迪特还对雅虎财经直播表示：“当我们考虑更好地重建时，无论去年的财政支出都比过去两年少，我们都可能面临财政悬崖。”“但《重建更好法案》预计将在几年内分阶段实施，因此，虽然这对经济增长来说在一定程度上是一个阻力，但我认为它现在最能表明人们的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Even with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are&nbsp;tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.</p><p><blockquote>即使假期缩短了一周的交易时间，投资者仍在关注拥挤的经济发布时间表。世界大型企业联合会将于周三发布最新的消费者信心指数，预计12月份仅小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.</p><p><blockquote>经济分析局还将于周四发布个人消费支出（PCE）的最新数据，这是衡量经济价格变化的关键指标。彭博社汇编的共识数据显示，预计11月份PCE将环比攀升0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>新的通胀数据将成为未来几天投资者关注的焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>Oxbow Advisors管理合伙人特德·奥克利(Ted Oakley)告诉雅虎财经直播：“现在我们面临着许多阻力。”他表示，投资者正在消化美联储和通胀的“鹰派顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> “Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“最后，市场投机性很强，很容易开始出现一些抛售，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>因奥密克戎担忧股市连续三天暴跌后反弹道指上涨300点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks rebound after three-day rout due to omicron fears, Dow rises 300 points<blockquote>因奥密克戎担忧股市连续三天暴跌后反弹道指上涨300点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-21 22:30</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news&nbsp;the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.</p><p><blockquote>周二市场开盘走高，投资者权衡白宫将介入帮助抗击omicron的消息，向医院部署军事人员，并购买500项家庭检测供美国人订购。</blockquote></p><p> All three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>美国三大股指开盘时均上涨，扭转了前一交易日的跌势，原因是人们再次担心奥密克戎病例数量不断增加可能会破坏经济复苏并加剧通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&amp;P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数上涨近300点，纳斯达克综合指数上涨1%。标普500开盘上涨近40点。</blockquote></p><p> “We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live.</p><p><blockquote>米拉·潘迪特(Meera Pandit)表示：“我们看到风险资产出现广泛抛售，但最终如果我们考虑更长的时间，我不确定这些是否会显着改变我们对2022年投资前景。”摩根大通资产管理公司全球市场策略师告诉雅虎财经直播。</blockquote></p><p> “On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”</p><p><blockquote>“在病毒方面，最终我们在之前的激增和之前的变种中看到的是，市场抛售往往会在一定程度上被控制在一段时间内，因此我们确实预计，随着我们越来越善于应对其中一些挑战从经济和市场的角度来看，尽管我们面临一些公共卫生挑战，但事情可能会稳定下来。”</blockquote></p><p> With&nbsp;virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to&nbsp;more quickly withdraw monetary support&nbsp;and boost forecasts for&nbsp;rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>随着对病毒的担忧引发更多限制和取消，围绕奥密克戎利差的担忧令交易员承压，交易员仍因美联储上周更快撤回货币支持并提高明年加息预期的鹰派转变而感到震惊。</blockquote></p><p> To add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on&nbsp;Fox News Sunday.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，在参议员乔·曼钦（西弗吉尼亚州民主党人）以对通货膨胀、国债和正在进行的疫情的担忧为由，撤销了政府酝酿已久的《重建更好法案》后，投资者也在处理拜登经济议程的意外打击。周日在接受福克斯新闻频道采访时。</blockquote></p><p> The news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.</p><p><blockquote>这一消息导致太阳能和电动汽车股暴跌，导致特斯拉(TSLA)自10月份以来首次跌破900美元。该股收盘下跌3.5%，至899.94美元。</blockquote></p><p> “When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also&nbsp;told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”</p><p><blockquote>潘迪特还对雅虎财经直播表示：“当我们考虑更好地重建时，无论去年的财政支出都比过去两年少，我们都可能面临财政悬崖。”“但《重建更好法案》预计将在几年内分阶段实施，因此，虽然这对经济增长来说在一定程度上是一个阻力，但我认为它现在最能表明人们的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> Even with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are&nbsp;tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.</p><p><blockquote>即使假期缩短了一周的交易时间，投资者仍在关注拥挤的经济发布时间表。世界大型企业联合会将于周三发布最新的消费者信心指数，预计12月份仅小幅上升。</blockquote></p><p> The Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.</p><p><blockquote>经济分析局还将于周四发布个人消费支出（PCE）的最新数据，这是衡量经济价格变化的关键指标。彭博社汇编的共识数据显示，预计11月份PCE将环比攀升0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> The new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.</p><p><blockquote>新的通胀数据将成为未来几天投资者关注的焦点。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.</p><p><blockquote>Oxbow Advisors管理合伙人特德·奥克利(Ted Oakley)告诉雅虎财经直播：“现在我们面临着许多阻力。”他表示，投资者正在消化美联储和通胀的“鹰派顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> “Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.</p><p><blockquote>“最后，市场投机性很强，很容易开始出现一些抛售，”他补充道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130758324","content_text":"Markets opened higher on Tuesday as investors weighed news the White House would step in to help fight Omicronwith the deployment of military personnel to hospitals and the purchase of 500 at-home tests that will be available for Americans to order.\nAll three major U.S. indexes were in the green at the start of trading in a turnaround from declines in the previous session ignited by renewed fears that swelling Omicron case numbers could derail economic recovery and worsen inflationary pressures.\nThe Dow was up nearly 300 points, while the Nasdaq Composite rose 1%. The S&P 500 gained nearly 40 points at the open.\n“We're seeing broad-based sell-off in risk assets, but ultimately if we think about the longer arc of time, I'm not sure these are going to meaningfully change our outlook for 2022 in terms of investing,” Meera Pandit, a global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management told Yahoo Finance Live.\n“On the virus side, ultimately what we’ve seen with prior surges and prior variants is that market sell-offs tend to be somewhat contained to a period of time, so we do expect that as we get better and better at dealing with some of these challenges from the economic and market perspective, things will likely settle down despite some of the public health challenges we have ahead.”\nWith virus fears triggering more restrictions and cancellations, concerns around Omicron’s spread weigh on traders still reeling from the Federal Reserve’s hawkish shift last week to more quickly withdraw monetary support and boost forecasts for rate hikes next year.\nTo add to their plate, investors are also processing an unexpected blow to Biden's economic agenda after Senator Joe Manchin (D., W. Va.) quashed the administration’s long-deliberated Build Back Better Act,citing concerns about inflation, the national debt and ongoing pandemic in an interview on Fox News Sunday.\nThe news sent solar energy and electric vehicle stocks plummeting in a sell-off that placed Tesla (TSLA) below $900 for the first time since October. The stock closed down 3.5% at $899.94.\n“When we think about Build Back Better, we are likely to face a fiscal cliff regardless last year with less fiscal spending than we’ve seen over the last two years,” Pandit also told Yahoo Finance Live. “But the Build Back Better bill was expected to be phased in over a number of years, so while it will be somewhat of a headwind for growth, I think it’s right now very much an indication of sentiment more than anything.”\nEven with a holiday-shortened week of trading, investors are tuning into a packed economic release schedule. The Conference Board is set to release its latest consumer confidence index on Wednesday, expected to show an only modest uptick for the month of December.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis will also publish fresh prints on Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Thursday, a key measure of price changes in the economy. Consensus data compiled by Bloomberg showed PCE is projected to climb at a 0.6% month-over-month rate in November.\nThe new inflation data will be a central focus among investors in the coming days.\n“There’s a number of headwinds coming at us now,” Oxbow Advisors managing partner Ted Oakleytold Yahoo Finance Live. He said investors are pricing in “peak hawkishness” from the Federal Reserve and inflation.\n“Lastly, you just had such a speculative market that it’s easy for it to start getting some selling,” he added.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":693895251,"gmtCreate":1639996116577,"gmtModify":1639996117170,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","listText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","text":"Hahahaa ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693895251","repostId":"1130704419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130704419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639953553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130704419?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份成屋销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份成屋销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CTAS":"信达思","KMX":"车美仕","MU":"美光科技","PAYX":"沛齐",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GIS":"通用磨坊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"PAYX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"KMX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699710871,"gmtCreate":1639892451992,"gmtModify":1639892452539,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahaha","listText":"Hahahaha","text":"Hahahaha","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699710871","repostId":"2192035909","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":858,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699583445,"gmtCreate":1639839423521,"gmtModify":1639839424122,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699583445","repostId":"2192754259","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1026,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":699583692,"gmtCreate":1639839349149,"gmtModify":1639839349743,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can","listText":"Can","text":"Can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/699583692","repostId":"1106862392","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106862392","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639810154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106862392?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-18 14:49","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>甲骨文出价300亿美元收购Cerner股价飙升</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106862392","media":"The Street","summary":"Cerner Corp. -Get Cerner Corporation Report shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal repor","content":"<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">Cerner Corp.</a> -Get Cerner Corporation Report&nbsp;shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle&nbsp;</a> -Get Oracle Corporation Report&nbsp;is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">塞尔纳公司。</a>-获取Cerner Corporation报告《华尔街日报》报道后，股价周五飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">神谕</a>——获取甲骨文公司报告称，该公司正准备以高达300亿美元的交易收购这家电子病历公司。</blockquote></p><p> A takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&amp;A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>收购Cerner（医生和医院用于管理和存储医疗记录的软件的最大设计者）不仅将是今年最大的并购交易之一，也将是甲骨文公司历史上最大的一笔交易——超过其2005年斥资100亿美元收购PeopleSoft规模的3倍，首席执行官萨夫拉·卡茨(Safra Catz)也发表了大胆声明，他于2019年接管了该云和软件集团的唯一控制权。</blockquote></p><p> Cerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October,&nbsp;has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.</p><p><blockquote>根据SVB Leerrink的数据，Cerner 10月份公布的第三季度收入为14.68亿美元，占据医疗记录市场25%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leerink表示：“我们认为这笔潜在交易对CERN来说是积极的，因为它将使该公司能够在一个更大的组织的保护下从EHR过渡到医疗保健平台，并受益于溢价外卖估值。”分析师斯蒂芬妮·戴维斯。“我们对甲骨文股东的潜在抵制给交易公告带来风险持谨慎态度，因为该交易将标志着该公司核心有机增长加速故事的转变，而支票规模意味着持有人可能会被稀释。”</blockquote></p><p> Cerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.</p><p><blockquote>Cerner股价收盘上涨10.28美元，涨幅12.9%，至89.77美元。甲骨文股价下跌6.60美元，跌幅6.4%，至96.62美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22804ede647ca4b70ab697475b6acc79\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following&nbsp;better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文股价上周创下历史新高，这家云和软件集团的市值约为2900亿美元，此前第二季度盈利好于预期，近期前景强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Oracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文的大部分收入来自其云服务和许可证支持部门，调整后的第二季度净利润为每股1.12美元，超出了华尔街的盈利预期。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司在大流行后的世界中继续在混合工作解决方案上投入资金，云部门的收入突破了75亿美元，而总收入增长了6%，达到104亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Bookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.</p><p><blockquote>预订量增长速度更快，比去年增长11%，这让甲骨文有信心根据增长预测预测本季度收入在107亿美元至109亿美元之间，每股利润在1.19美元至1.23美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>甲骨文出价300亿美元收购Cerner股价飙升</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCerner Shares Surge On Reports Of $30 Billion Oracle Takeover Bid<blockquote>甲骨文出价300亿美元收购Cerner股价飙升</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-18 14:49</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">Cerner Corp.</a> -Get Cerner Corporation Report&nbsp;shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">Oracle&nbsp;</a> -Get Oracle Corporation Report&nbsp;is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CERN\">塞尔纳公司。</a>-获取Cerner Corporation报告《华尔街日报》报道后，股价周五飙升<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ORCL\">神谕</a>——获取甲骨文公司报告称，该公司正准备以高达300亿美元的交易收购这家电子病历公司。</blockquote></p><p> A takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&amp;A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.</p><p><blockquote>收购Cerner（医生和医院用于管理和存储医疗记录的软件的最大设计者）不仅将是今年最大的并购交易之一，也将是甲骨文公司历史上最大的一笔交易——超过其2005年斥资100亿美元收购PeopleSoft规模的3倍，首席执行官萨夫拉·卡茨(Safra Catz)也发表了大胆声明，他于2019年接管了该云和软件集团的唯一控制权。</blockquote></p><p> Cerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October,&nbsp;has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.</p><p><blockquote>根据SVB Leerrink的数据，Cerner 10月份公布的第三季度收入为14.68亿美元，占据医疗记录市场25%的份额。</blockquote></p><p> \"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"</p><p><blockquote>Leerink表示：“我们认为这笔潜在交易对CERN来说是积极的，因为它将使该公司能够在一个更大的组织的保护下从EHR过渡到医疗保健平台，并受益于溢价外卖估值。”分析师斯蒂芬妮·戴维斯。“我们对甲骨文股东的潜在抵制给交易公告带来风险持谨慎态度，因为该交易将标志着该公司核心有机增长加速故事的转变，而支票规模意味着持有人可能会被稀释。”</blockquote></p><p> Cerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.</p><p><blockquote>Cerner股价收盘上涨10.28美元，涨幅12.9%，至89.77美元。甲骨文股价下跌6.60美元，跌幅6.4%，至96.62美元。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/22804ede647ca4b70ab697475b6acc79\" tg-width=\"966\" tg-height=\"636\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Oracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following&nbsp;better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文股价上周创下历史新高，这家云和软件集团的市值约为2900亿美元，此前第二季度盈利好于预期，近期前景强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Oracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.</p><p><blockquote>甲骨文的大部分收入来自其云服务和许可证支持部门，调整后的第二季度净利润为每股1.12美元，超出了华尔街的盈利预期。</blockquote></p><p> Cloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.</p><p><blockquote>随着公司在大流行后的世界中继续在混合工作解决方案上投入资金，云部门的收入突破了75亿美元，而总收入增长了6%，达到104亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Bookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.</p><p><blockquote>预订量增长速度更快，比去年增长11%，这让甲骨文有信心根据增长预测预测本季度收入在107亿美元至109亿美元之间，每股利润在1.19美元至1.23美元之间。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/cerner-shares-surge-on-reports-of-30-billion-oracle-takeover-bid\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CERN":"美国塞纳","ORCL":"甲骨文"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/markets/cerner-shares-surge-on-reports-of-30-billion-oracle-takeover-bid","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106862392","content_text":"Cerner Corp. -Get Cerner Corporation Report shares surged Friday after the Wall Street Journal reported that Oracle  -Get Oracle Corporation Report is preparing to buy the electronic medical records company in a deal worth as much as $30 billion.\nA takeover of Cerner, the biggest designer of software used by doctors and hospitals to mange and store medical records, would not only be one of the biggest M&A deals of the year, it would also be the biggest in Oracle's corporate history -- more than 3 times the size of its $10 billion purchase of PeopleSoft in 2005 -- and a bold statement from CEO Safra Catz, who assumed sole control of the cloud and software group in 2019.\nCerner, which posted third quarter revenues of $1.468 billion in October, has a 25% share of the medical records market, according to SVB Leerrink.\n\"We view the potential deal as a positive for CERN as it will allow the company to undergo its transition from an EHR to a healthcare platform within the cover of a far larger organization, and with the benefit of a premium takeout valuation,\" said Leerink analysts Stephanie Davis. \"We are cautious on potential pushback from Oracle shareholders creating risk to a deal announcement, as the deal would mark a transition away from the company’s core organic growth acceleration story while the check size implies likely dilution to holders.\"\nCerner shares ended up $10.28, or 12.9%, at $89.77. Oracle shares fell $6.60, or, 6.4%, to $96.62.\n\nOracle shares traded at an all-time high last week, giving the cloud and software group a market value of around $290 billion, following better-than-expected second quarter earnings and a robust near-term outlook.\nOracle, which earns the bulk of its revenues from its cloud services and license support unit, beat Street earnings forecasts by a dime with an adjusted second quarter bottom line of $1.12 per share.\nCloud division revenues topped $7.5 billion as companies continue to spend on hybrid work solutions in a post-pandemic world, while overall revenues grew by 6% to $10.4 billon.\nBookings grew at an even faster pace, rising 11% from last year's levels, giving Oracle the confidence to forecast current quarter revenues in the region of $10.7 billion to $10.9 billion, based on growth forecasts, with profits of between $1.19 and $1.23 per share.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CERN":0.9,"ORCL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":989,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690440285,"gmtCreate":1639704406885,"gmtModify":1639704408248,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690440285","repostId":"1113560897","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1113560897","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639699755,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1113560897?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-17 08:09","market":"sg","language":"en","title":"Singapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将保持区间震荡</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1113560897","media":"RTTNews","summary":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-da","content":"<p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>自连续两天下跌超过20点或0.7%以来，新加坡股市在三个交易日中有两个交易日上涨。海峡时报指数目前略低于3,130点的高位，尽管预计周五将再次走低。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian&nbsp;markets&nbsp;is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.</p><p><blockquote>全球对亚洲市场的预测好坏参半，获利了结——尤其是科技股——在前一天大幅上涨后推动了向下修正。欧洲股市上涨，美国股市下跌，亚洲市场预计将追随后者的走势。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.</p><p><blockquote>继金融股和工业股上涨后，海指周四小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数在3,113.05至3,137.31之间交易后，上涨13.92点或0.45%，收于3,128.80点。成交量为9.41亿股，价值9.791亿新元。上涨265家，下跌202家。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>活跃股中，腾飞房地产投资信托下跌0.34%，凯德综合商业信托下跌0.50%，City Developments暴跌2.69%，Comfort DelGro暴跌1.43%，Dairy Farm International暴跌2.48%，星展集团飙升1.35%，香港置地下跌1.85%，吉宝企业上涨0.39%，华侨银行上涨0.80%，新翔集团上涨0.52%，胜科工业飙升3.59%，新加坡航空下跌0.20%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信上涨0.83%，大华银行上涨1.31%，扬子江造船下跌0.77%，新加坡报业控股、丰益国际、丰树商业信托、丰树物流信托、云顶新加坡和泰国饮料持平。</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先是负面的，主要股指周四开盘小幅走高，但很快转跌，收盘时跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数下跌29.79点或0.08%，收于35,897.64点；纳斯达克指数暴跌385.15点或2.47%，收于15,180.43点；标普500指数下跌41.18点或0.87%，收于4,668.67点。</blockquote></p><p> The pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街回调之际，交易员继续消化美联储周三的货币政策公告，即加快缩减资产购买的步伐，并预测明年将加息多达三次。</blockquote></p><p> While some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些股票受益于货币政策前景不确定性的减少，但由于担心利率上升的影响，高增长科技股大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.</p><p><blockquote>经济消息方面，劳工部指出上周首次申请失业救济人数温和反弹，而美联储还表示，美国11月工业生产增幅低于预期。此外，商务部表示，上个月新屋开工和建筑许可的激增都远高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>原油期货周四收高，数据显示美国能源需求增加，以及上周美国原油库存降幅大于预期。西德克萨斯中质原油1月期货收高1.51美元或2.1%，报每桶72.38美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1626938412129","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Singapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将保持区间震荡</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSingapore Stock Market Expected To Remain Rangebound<blockquote>新加坡股市预计将保持区间震荡</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">RTTNews</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-17 08:09</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>自连续两天下跌超过20点或0.7%以来，新加坡股市在三个交易日中有两个交易日上涨。海峡时报指数目前略低于3,130点的高位，尽管预计周五将再次走低。</blockquote></p><p> The global forecast for the Asian&nbsp;markets&nbsp;is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.</p><p><blockquote>全球对亚洲市场的预测好坏参半，获利了结——尤其是科技股——在前一天大幅上涨后推动了向下修正。欧洲股市上涨，美国股市下跌，亚洲市场预计将追随后者的走势。</blockquote></p><p> The STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.</p><p><blockquote>继金融股和工业股上涨后，海指周四小幅收高。</blockquote></p><p> For the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.</p><p><blockquote>当天，该指数在3,113.05至3,137.31之间交易后，上涨13.92点或0.45%，收于3,128.80点。成交量为9.41亿股，价值9.791亿新元。上涨265家，下跌202家。</blockquote></p><p> Among the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.</p><p><blockquote>活跃股中，腾飞房地产投资信托下跌0.34%，凯德综合商业信托下跌0.50%，City Developments暴跌2.69%，Comfort DelGro暴跌1.43%，Dairy Farm International暴跌2.48%，星展集团飙升1.35%，香港置地下跌1.85%，吉宝企业上涨0.39%，华侨银行上涨0.80%，新翔集团上涨0.52%，胜科工业飙升3.59%，新加坡航空下跌0.20%，新加坡科技工程上涨0.27%，新加坡电信上涨0.83%，大华银行上涨1.31%，扬子江造船下跌0.77%，新加坡报业控股、丰益国际、丰树商业信托、丰树物流信托、云顶新加坡和泰国饮料持平。</blockquote></p><p> The lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的领先是负面的，主要股指周四开盘小幅走高，但很快转跌，收盘时跌至盘中低点。</blockquote></p><p> The Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&amp;P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.</p><p><blockquote>道琼斯指数下跌29.79点或0.08%，收于35,897.64点；纳斯达克指数暴跌385.15点或2.47%，收于15,180.43点；标普500指数下跌41.18点或0.87%，收于4,668.67点。</blockquote></p><p> The pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街回调之际，交易员继续消化美联储周三的货币政策公告，即加快缩减资产购买的步伐，并预测明年将加息多达三次。</blockquote></p><p> While some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些股票受益于货币政策前景不确定性的减少，但由于担心利率上升的影响，高增长科技股大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> In economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.</p><p><blockquote>经济消息方面，劳工部指出上周首次申请失业救济人数温和反弹，而美联储还表示，美国11月工业生产增幅低于预期。此外，商务部表示，上个月新屋开工和建筑许可的激增都远高于预期。</blockquote></p><p> Crude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.</p><p><blockquote>原油期货周四收高，数据显示美国能源需求增加，以及上周美国原油库存降幅大于预期。西德克萨斯中质原油1月期货收高1.51美元或2.1%，报每桶72.38美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.rttnews.com/3250039/singapore-stock-market-expected-to-remain-rangebound.aspx\">RTTNews</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"STI.SI":"富时新加坡海峡指数"},"source_url":"https://www.rttnews.com/3250039/singapore-stock-market-expected-to-remain-rangebound.aspx","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1113560897","content_text":"The Singapore stock market has moved higher in two of three trading days since the end of the two-day slide in which it had fallen more than 20 points or 0.7 percent. The Straits Times Index now sits just beneath the 3,130-point plateau although it figures to turn lower again on Friday.\nThe global forecast for the Asian markets is mixed to lower, with profit taking - especially among technology stocks - fueling a downward correction after sharp gains a day earlier. The European markets were up and the U.S. bourses were down and the Asian markets figure to follow the latter lead.\nThe STI finished modestly higher on Thursday following gains from the financial shares and the industrials.\nFor the day, the index improved 13.92 points or 0.45 percent to finish at 3,128.80 after trading between 3,113.05 and 3,137.31. Volume was 941 million shares worth 979.1 million Singapore dollars. There were 265 gainers and 202 decliners.\nAmong the actives, Ascendas REIT shed 0.34 percent, while CapitaLand Integrated Commercial Trust retreated 0.50 percent, City Developments plummeted 2.69 percent, Comfort DelGro tumbled 1.43 percent, Dairy Farm International plunged 2.48 percent, DBS Group spiked 1.35 percent, Hongkong Land tanked 1.85 percent, Keppel Corp gained 0.39 percent, Oversea-Chinese Banking Corporation collected 0.80 percent, SATS added 0.52 percent, SembCorp Industries surged 3.59 percent, Singapore Airlines dipped 0.20 percent, Singapore Exchange fell 0.21 percent, Singapore Technologies Engineering rose 0.27 percent, SingTel advanced 0.83 percent, United Overseas Bank climbed 1.31 percent, Yangzijiang Shipbuilding sank 0.77 percent and Singapore Press Holdings, Wilmar International, Mapletree Commercial Trust, Mapletree Logistics Trust, Genting Singapore and Thai Beverage were unchanged.\nThe lead from Wall Street is negative as the major averages opened slightly higher on Thursday but quickly turned lower, sinking to session lows at the close.\nThe Dow dipped 29.79 points or 0.08 percent to finish at 35,897.64, while the NASDAQ plummeted 385.15 points or 2.47 percent to close at 15,180.43 and the S&P 500 sank 41.18 points or 0.87 percent to end at 4,668.67.\nThe pull back on Wall Street came as traders continued to digest the Federal Reserve's monetary policy announcement on Wednesday, which was to accelerate the pace of tapering its asset purchases and forecast as many as three interest rate hikes next year.\nWhile some stocks benefited from reduced uncertainty about the outlook for monetary policy, high-growth tech stocks fell sharply amid concerns about the impact of higher interest rates.\nIn economic news, the Labor Department noted a modest rebound in first-time jobless claims last week, while the Fed also said U.S. industrial production increased less than expected in November. Also, the Commerce Department said housing starts and building permits both surged much more than expected last month.\nCrude oil futures settled higher Thursday, aided by data showing increased demand for energy in the U.S. and a larger than expected drop in U.S. crude stockpiles last week. West Texas Intermediate Crude oil futures for January ended higher by $1.51 or 2.1 percent at $72.38 a barrel.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"STI.SI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":789,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690640658,"gmtCreate":1639666051403,"gmtModify":1639666051959,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"It's time to give","listText":"It's time to give","text":"It's time to give","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690640658","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":690028187,"gmtCreate":1639615083962,"gmtModify":1639615084564,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hohoho","listText":"Hohoho","text":"Hohoho","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690028187","repostId":"2191994940","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607698324,"gmtCreate":1639530566869,"gmtModify":1639530567485,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good and good","listText":"Good and good","text":"Good and good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607698324","repostId":"2191784951","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":890,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":607036826,"gmtCreate":1639454986225,"gmtModify":1639454986813,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok can","listText":"Ok can","text":"Ok can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607036826","repostId":"1120286910","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1120286910","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639453388,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1120286910?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-14 11:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1120286910","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI wa","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>PayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPayPal's Recent Price Decline Will Eventually Happen To Nearly All Overvalued Technology Stocks<blockquote>PayPal最近的价格下跌最终将发生在几乎所有被高估的科技股身上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-14 11:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>PayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.</li>  <li>I warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.</li>  <li>That warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.</li>  <li>PayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/847095b0be294275f55f7e8f700d56b4\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1229\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>BsWei/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>PayPal股价较今年高点下跌超过-35%，而且该股仍然不便宜。</li><li>我早在2021年2月就警告投资者，PayPal的估值被严重高估，值得出售。</li><li>这一警告可能是针对数十只被高估的科技股发出的，这些股在未来3年内仍有超过-50%的下跌空间。</li><li>PayPal仍然是一家我想拥有的伟大公司，因此我分析该股票以确定我愿意购买它的价格。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>BsWei/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> Back on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>早在2021年2月6日，我就制作了一段视频，与投资者分享了为什么PayPal(PYPL)股票被高估到足以出售。我在我的Seeking Alpha bloghere上分享了该视频。自那时以来，PayPal的绝对表现和相对于标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）的表现都很差。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8252b7218af36cce8b5a591f56abaecd\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.</p><p><blockquote>自从我向投资者发出警告以来，该股股价已下跌约-30%，较今年的高点下跌约-38%。</blockquote></p><p> The truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.</p><p><blockquote>事实是，我本可以对许多其他被高估的科技股发出同样的警告，但如果价格跌至合理水平，我实际上想买入PayPal。这是一个公司绝对没有问题的案例。没有什么不好的故事可讲。这个价格被高估了。二月份围绕PayPal的故事有多好并不重要。从长远来看，数字几乎总是胜过叙事。当时的数字没有意义。</blockquote></p><p> This should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.</p><p><blockquote>这应该是中长线投资者的重要一课。如果数字不起作用，故事是什么并不重要。</blockquote></p><p> The difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investors<i>love</i>narratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.</p><p><blockquote>对于像我这样的股票作家来说，困难的是投资者<i>爱</i>叙事和故事。这不是我们的错。我们人类的大脑天生就是这样。自从我分享了我看跌的2月份PayPal视频以来，Seeking Alpha上报道PayPal的62篇文章中，没有一篇“看跌”文章。主要原因是PayPal的叙述如此吸引人，以至于估值数字要么被忽视，要么围绕这些数字的假设不现实。</blockquote></p><p> In this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>在本文中，我将分享我目前基于盈利和盈利增长预测的PayPal估值。我还将分享我认为PayPal股票的公允价值范围，以及我希望在安全边际的情况下购买的价格。这与我在2021年2月用来确定PayPal股票被高估的基本过程相同。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全周期盈利分析</b></blockquote></p><p> As part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.</p><p><blockquote>作为分析的一部分，我计算了我认为未来总回报的两个主要驱动因素：市场情绪回报和商业回报。然后，我将这些预期回报以10年复合年增长率预期的形式组合在一起，并用它来评估股票。</blockquote></p><p> Before I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.</p><p><blockquote>在我开始这种分析之前，我总是检查企业的长期盈利模式，以确保企业适合这种分析。如果历史收益1）没有足够长的历史2）本质上不稳定，或者3）周期性太强，那么我要么完全避免分析股票，要么使用更合适的不同类型的分析。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70078307e65a5a1d0e37f9e70b726b77\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> We can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以看到，自2015年以来，PayPal的每股收益每年都在增长。这是一个明显的长期增长模式，它使该股票作为长期投资非常有吸引力。自2015年以来，没有出现过任何盈利负增长的年份，因此该股票可能非常适合我将要进行的盈利分析类型。不过，要问的一个重要问题是，虽然我们在2020年确实经历了短暂的衰退，但这是一次非常不寻常的衰退。在更长、更持久的经济衰退期间，PayPal的业务可能会对经济更加敏感。所以，这是一个风险。然而，当我考察eBay(EBAY)在2008/9年经济衰退中的表现时，其盈利增长基本持平，从未出现过负增长。如果让我猜测的话，我认为PayPal的盈利增长率可能会在“正常”衰退期间下降，但仍然不会特别具有周期性。出于这些原因，尽管我们没有PayPal“正常”衰退的硬历史数据，但我仍将继续进行全周期盈利分析。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Market Sentiment Return Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场情绪回归预期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>为了估计未来10年我们可能预期的回报，让我们首先研究一下，如果市盈率倍数恢复到上一个经济周期的平均值，我们从现在起10年后可以预期的回报。由于我们最近经历了一次衰退（尽管是一次不寻常的衰退），我将在2015财年开始这个周期，并通过2021年的估计运行它。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e36d2c3455962a02d96b8c88c32eadce\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"490\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> PayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of<b>-1.75%</b>. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal从2015年至今的平均市盈率为34.11（快速图上用金色圈出的蓝色条）。使用2021年4.60美元的预期盈利预测（也用金色圈出），PayPal目前的市盈率为40.73。如果40.73市盈率在未来10年恢复到34.11的平均市盈率，而其他条件保持不变，PayPal的股价将会下跌，10年复合年增长率将为<b>-1.75%</b>如果情绪回归需要十年时间，这就是我们可以从情绪均值回归中预期的年回报率。如果恢复所需的时间更短，价格可能会下跌得更快。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Business Earnings Expectations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>业务盈利预期</b></blockquote></p><p> We previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.</p><p><blockquote>我们之前研究了如果市场情绪恢复到均值会发生什么。这完全由市场情绪决定，并且通常与实际业务的表现脱节，或者只是松散地联系在一起。在本节中，我们将检查企业的实际收益。这里的目标很简单：我们想知道如果我们以今天的价格收购企业并将所有收益留给自己，我们在10年内会赚多少钱（以CAGR%的形式表示）。</blockquote></p><p> There are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.</p><p><blockquote>这有两个主要组成部分：第一个是收益收益率，第二个是收益的预期增长率。让我们从收益率（这是一个倒置的市盈率，因此，市盈率）开始。目前的收益率约为+2.46%。我喜欢思考这个问题的方式是，如果我现在以100美元购买公司的整个业务，如果未来10年收益保持不变，我每年的投资将获得2.46美元。</blockquote></p><p> The next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).</p><p><blockquote>下一步是估计公司在这段时间内的盈利增长。我通过计算上一个周期的收益增长率并将该增长率应用于未来10年来做到这一点。这涉及计算自2015年以来的每股收益增长率，考虑每年的每股收益增长或下降，然后退出该时期发生的任何股票回购（因为减持股票会因股票减少而增加每股收益）。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f31b7d8ed5f59c82c2531cc686324d1a\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"417\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Due to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.</p><p><blockquote>由于图表的规模，回购看起来比实际要大得多，这里没有太多调整。此外，由于PayPal的盈利每年都在增长，因此无需调整盈利增长下降。这使得估计PayPal的盈利增长变得相对简单，我估计PayPal的盈利增长约为+23.65%。</blockquote></p><p> Now, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，当我问自己“出于估值目的，未来10年的合理预期是什么？”对于企业来说，在整整十年的时间里，收入每年增长超过20%是非常非常困难的（特别是如果他们在过去十年里已经这样做了）。因此，在用于估值目的时，我将所有长期预期盈利增长预测限制在20%。当股票的市盈率可能会随着时间的推移而收缩时，这只是一种帮助我避免为股票支付过高价格的方法。因此，对于这次估值工作，我将盈利增长假设限制在20%。</blockquote></p><p> Next, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a<b>+5.85%</b>10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我将将该增长率应用于当前收益，展望10年，以获得最终的10年复合年增长率估计。我的想法是，如果我以100美元收购PayPal的整个业务，它将在第一年偿还我2.46美元，外加+20.00%的增长，并且在那之后的10年里，这个数额将以每年+20.00%的速度增长。我想知道我的100美元投资在10年后总共会有多少钱，我计算出大约是176.50美元（包括最初的100美元）。当我将这种增长插入CAGR计算器时，就会转化为<b>+5.85%</b>预期业务盈利回报的10年复合年增长率估计。</blockquote></p><p> <b>10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate</b></p><p><blockquote><b>10年全周期复合年增长率估计</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Potential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of<b>+4.10%</b>at today's price.</p><p><blockquote>潜在的未来回报可以来自两个主要地方：市场情绪回报或业务收益回报。如果我们假设PayPal未来10年的市场情绪恢复到上一个周期的平均值，则复合年增长率将为-1.75%。如果盈利收益率和增长与上一个周期相似，该公司的10年复合年增长率应该在+5.85%左右。如果我们将两者放在一起，我们会得到预期的10年全周期复合年增长率为<b>+4.10%</b>以今天的价格。</blockquote></p><p> My Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.</p><p><blockquote>我对此类股票的买入/卖出/持有范围是：复合年增长率高于12%为买入，预期复合年增长率低于4%为卖出，4%至12%之间为持有。这使得PayPal股票在今天的价格水平上勉强属于“持有”类别。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Additional Considerations</b></p><p><blockquote><b>其他注意事项</b></blockquote></p><p> I consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal是目前市场上质量最高的成长型股票之一，这就是为什么我一直相对密切地关注其估值。在本节中，我将分享我对PayPal的公允价值范围，以及我愿意在基于收益的安全边际下购买该股票的价格，以及我考虑使用更激进和不太保守的估值方法购买的价格。因此，我将从各种不同的角度来看PayPal的估值，让我们更清楚地了解购买该股票的合适价格。</blockquote></p><p> First, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.</p><p><blockquote>首先，我将使用本文中使用的相同假设和输入从我的购买价格和公允价值范围开始。如果我们使用所有这些相同的输入，我目前对PayPal的公允价值范围约为每股126.50美元至164.00美元。我目前的买入价格（包括安全边际）是112.10美元。低于该价格买入的投资者在中期内很有可能获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p> Once we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.</p><p><blockquote>一旦我们进入新的一年和2022年，我将开始提前预测PayPal 2022年的盈利。目前，分析师预计2022年每股收益为5.25美元。如果PayPal的其他指标保持不变，这将大大提高其估值，并将其公允价值范围提高至每股145.00美元至187.50美元，安全买入价格为每股128.00美元。当然，这是假设分析师维持对2022年的预期不变，并且在未来几个月内不会降低预期。这也意味着，根据未来的收益，如果PayPal在一两个月内保持接近当前价格的交易，它已经处于“公允价值”价格范围的上限。这可能是当前所有者继续持有的另一个原因。</blockquote></p><p> The Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.</p><p><blockquote>我在本文中使用的全周期收益分析并不是我使用的唯一分析类型。对于某些利润快速增长的罕见企业，我最近开发了一种新的分析方法，以帮助识别仅根据收益可能永远不会变得足够便宜的快速增长企业。这种分析的方法是我的私人服务机构周期性投资者俱乐部独有的，但由于PayPal的利润增长非常强劲，它实际上也有资格进行这种类型的分析，我想我至少会分享这种分析产生的“购买价格”，因为它比基于收益的分析更激进一些。</blockquote></p><p> When I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.</p><p><blockquote>当我使用利润增长分析来检查PayPal时，它得出的买入价格为144.90美元。我觉得这很有趣，因为如果本季度利润继续增长，价格可能会上涨一点，并使用我的基于收益的方法，使用明年的收益，使其非常接近公允价值的中间值。这是假设PayPal的指标从现在到那时不会恶化，而且PayPal也必须满足一些技术要求，但我认为到2022年2月，我很有可能成为PayPal股票的买家，大约在我警告投资者其高估值一年后。看看结果会很有趣。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论</b></blockquote></p><p> I think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.</p><p><blockquote>我认为PayPal 2021年的衰落是一个有趣且有用的案例研究，超越了PayPal本身。我们今年看到的PayPal股价下跌是完全可以预见的，还有许多其他估值丰厚的科技股也将经历类似的下跌，其中大多数可能在2022年。对于跑赢大盘此类股票的投资者来说，现在可能是考虑多元化的时候了，以帮助保持过去几年的收益。虽然会有一些被高估的股票停滞不前几年，毫无进展，也有极少数股票设法继续上涨，但绝大多数股票将经历像PayPal那样的下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PYPL":"PayPal"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4474960-paypal-share-price-decline-overvalued-technology-stocks","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1120286910","content_text":"Summary\n\nPayPal stock is down over -35% off this year's highs, and the stock still isn't cheap.\nI warned investors back in February of 2021 that PayPal was extremely overvalued and worth selling.\nThat warning could have been issued for dozens and dozens of overvalued technology stocks that still have over -50% downside from here within the next 3 years.\nPayPal remains a great company that I would like to own, so I analyze the stock in order to establish I price at which I'd be willing to buy it.\n\nBsWei/iStock via Getty Images\nIntroduction\nBack on February 6th, 2021, I made a video where I shared with investors why PayPal (PYPL) stock was overvalued enough to sell. I shared that video on my Seeking Alpha bloghere. Since that time, PayPal has performed poorly both on an absolute basis and relative to the S&P 500 (SPY).\nData by YCharts\nThe stock price is down about -30% since I warned investors and down about -38% off its high price of the year.\nThe truth is that I could have issued the same warning about many other technology stocks that had become overvalued, but PayPal was one that I actually wanted to buy if the price ever fell to a reasonable level. It was a case where there was absolutely nothing wrong with the company. There was no bad story to tell. The price had simply gotten insanely overvalued. It didn't matter how good the story around PayPal was back in February. Numbers almost always trump narrative over the long-term. And the numbers back then didn't make sense.\nThis should be an important lesson for medium and long-term investors. If the numbers don't work, it doesn't matter what the story is.\nThe difficultly for a stock writer like myself is that investorslovenarratives and stories. It's not our fault. Our human brains are hardwired that way. Since I shared my bearish February PayPal video, out of 62 articles on Seeking Alpha covering PayPal, there hasn't been a single \"Bearish\" article written. The primary reason for that is because PayPal's narrative was so appealing that valuation numbers were either ignored, or the assumptions around the numbers were not realistic.\nIn this article, I'm going to share my current PayPal valuation based on earnings and earnings growth projections. I'll also share what I consider to be a fair value range for PayPal stock, and the price I would be looking to buy with a margin of safety. This is the same basic process I used to determine that PayPal stock was overvalued back in February of 2021.\nFull-Cycle Earnings Analysis\nAs part of the analysis, I calculate what I consider to be the two main drivers of future total returns: Market sentiment returns and business returns. I then combine those expected returns together in the form of a 10-year CAGR expectation and use that to value the stock.\nBefore I begin this analysis, I always check the business's long-term earnings patterns in order to ensure that the business is a proper fit for this sort of analysis. If the historical earnings 1) don't have a long enough history 2) are erratic in nature, or 3) are too cyclical, then I either avoid analyzing the stock altogether or I use a different type of analysis that is more appropriate.\n\nWe can see that since 2015 PayPal's earnings per share have increased every single year. This is a clear secular growth pattern and it makes the stock very attractive as a long-term investment. Since 2015 there haven't been any negative earnings growth years so the stock is likely a good fit for the type of earnings analysis I'm going to perform. One important question to ask, though, is that while we did have a brief recession in 2020, it was a very unusual one. It's possible that PayPal's business could be more economically sensitive during a longer, more drawn-out recession. So, that is a risk. However, when I examined how eBay (EBAY) performed in the 2008/9 recession, its earnings growth was basically flat, and never went negative. If I had to make a guess, I think PayPal's earnings growth rate would probably decline during a \"normal\" recession, but still wouldn't be especially cyclical. For those reasons, I'm going to go ahead with my Full-Cycle Earnings Analysis even though we don't have hard historical data from \"normal\" recession for PayPal.\nMarket Sentiment Return Expectations\nIn order to estimate what sort of returns we might expect over the next 10 years, let's begin by examining what return we could expect 10 years from now if the P/E multiple were to revert to its mean from the previous economic cycle. Since we have had a recent recession (albeit an unusual one) I'm starting this cycle in fiscal year 2015 and running it through 2021's estimates.\n\nPayPal's average P/E from 2015 to the present has been a healthy 34.11 (the blue bar circled in gold on the FAST Graph). Using 2021's forward earnings estimates of $4.60 (also circled in gold), PayPal has a current P/E of 40.73. If that 40.73 P/E were to revert to the average P/E of 34.11 over the course of the next 10 years and everything else was held the same, PayPal's price would fall and it would produce a 10-Year CAGR of-1.75%. That's the annual return we can expect from sentiment mean reversion if it takes ten years to revert. If it takes less time to revert, the price could fall faster.\nBusiness Earnings Expectations\nWe previously examined what would happen if market sentiment reverted to the mean. This is entirely determined by the mood of the market and is quite often disconnected, or only loosely connected, to the performance of the actual business. In this section, we will examine the actual earnings of the business. The goal here is simple: We want to know how much money we would earn (expressed in the form of a CAGR %) over the course of 10 years if we bought the business at today's prices and kept all of the earnings for ourselves.\nThere are two main components of this: the first is the earnings yield and the second is the rate at which the earnings can be expected to grow. Let's start with the earnings yield (which is an inverted P/E ratio, so, the Earnings/Price ratio). The current earnings yield is about +2.46%. The way I like to think about this is, if I bought the company's whole business right now for $100, I would earn $2.46 per year on my investment if earnings remained the same for the next 10 years.\nThe next step is to estimate the company's earnings growth during this time period. I do that by figuring out at what rate earnings grew during the last cycle and applying that rate to the next 10 years. This involves calculating the EPS growth rate since 2015, taking into account each year's EPS growth or decline, and then backing out any share buybacks that occurred over that time period (because reducing shares will increase the EPS due to fewer shares).\nData by YCharts\nDue to the scale of the graph, the buybacks look much bigger than they actually are, and there isn't much to adjust here. Additionally, since PayPal has grown earnings every year there are no earnings growth declines to adjust for either. This makes estimating PayPal's earnings growth a relatively straightforward affair, and I estimate PayPal's earnings growth at about +23.65%.\nNow, this is the point where my conservatism when it comes to asking myself \"What is a reasonable expectation, for valuation purposes, going forward 10 years?\" It is very, very difficult for businesses to grow earnings over 20% per year for a full decade (particularly if they have already been doing that the previous decade). For that reason, I cap all of my long-term forward earnings growth estimates when using them for valuation purposes at 20%. This is simply a way to help keep me from overpaying for a stock when their P/E multiple is likely to contract over time. So, for this valuation exercise, I am limiting my earnings growth assumption to 20%.\nNext, I'll apply that growth rate to current earnings, looking forward 10 years in order to get a final 10-year CAGR estimate. The way I think about this is, if I bought PayPal's whole business for $100, it would pay me back $2.46 plus +20.00% growth the first year, and that amount would grow at +20.00% per year for 10 years after that. I want to know how much money I would have in total at the end of 10 years on my $100 investment, which I calculate to be about $176.50 (including the original $100). When I plug that growth into a CAGR calculator, that translates to a+5.85%10-year CAGR estimate for the expected business earnings returns.\n10-Year, Full-Cycle CAGR Estimate\nPotential future returns can come from two main places: market sentiment returns or business earnings returns. If we assume that market sentiment reverts to the mean from the last cycle over the next 10 years for PayPal, it will produce a -1.75% CAGR. If the earnings yield and growth are similar to the last cycle, the company should produce somewhere around a +5.85% 10-year CAGR. If we put the two together, we get an expected 10-year, full-cycle CAGR of+4.10%at today's price.\nMy Buy/Sell/Hold range for this category of stocks is: above a 12% CAGR is a Buy, below a 4% expected CAGR is a Sell, and in between 4% and 12% is a Hold. This puts PayPal stock just barely into the \"Hold\" category at today's price level.\nAdditional Considerations\nI consider PayPal one of the highest quality growth stocks in the market right now, which is why I've been monitoring its valuation relatively closely. In this section I'm going to share my fair value range for PayPal along with the price I would be willing to buy the stock with a margin of safety based on earnings, and also the price I would consider buying using a more aggressive and less conservative valuation approach. So, I'm going to look at PayPal's valuation from a variety of different perspectives to give us a clearer view of what might be an appropriate price to pay for the stock.\nFirst, I'll start with my buy price and fair value range using the same assumptions and inputs I used in this article. If we use all of those same inputs my current fair value range for PayPal is about $126.50 to $164.00 per share. My current buy price that includes a margin of safety is $112.10. Investors who buy below that price have very good odds of great returns over the medium-term with the stock.\nOnce we get into the new year and 2022, I'll start pulling forward PayPal's 2022 earnings for my estimates. Right now, analysts expect $5.25 per share from earnings in 2022. That will improve PayPal's valuation a lot if the rest of their metrics remain the same, and it would raise their fair value range up to $145.00 to $187.50 dollars per share with a margin of safety buy price at $128.00 per share. This, of course, assumes analysts keep their estimates for 2022 in place and don't lower them over the next couple of months. It also means, based on future earnings, that in a month or two if PayPal keeps trading near its current price, it is already in the top end of a \"fair value\" price range. This might be a further reason for current owners to keep holding.\nThe Full-Cycle Earnings analysis I used in this article is not the only type of analysis I use. For certain rare businesses with fast profit growth dynamics, I recently developed a new analysis to help identify fast-growing businesses that might never become cheap enough to buy based on earnings alone. The methods of this analysis are exclusive to my private service, The Cyclical Investor's Club, but since PayPal's profit growth is very strong, it actually qualifies for this type of analysis, too, and I thought I would at least share the sort of \"buy price\" that analysis produces because it's a little more aggressive than the earnings-based analysis.\nWhen I examine PayPal using the profit growth analysis, it produces a buy price of $144.90. I find that interesting because if profits keep growing this quarter that price is likely to rise a little bit and put it pretty close to the middle of fair value using next year's earnings using my earnings-based method. This assumes that PayPal's metrics don't deteriorate between now and then, and there would be some technical requirements PayPal would have to meet as well, but I think the odds are good that by February of 2022 I could be a buyer of PayPal stock, approximately one year after I warned investors about its high valuation. It's going to be very interesting to see how it turns out.\nConclusion\nI think PayPal's 2021 decline is an interesting and useful case study that goes beyond PayPal itself. The sort of decline we've seen in PayPal's stock price this year was entirely predictable and there are many other richly valued technology stocks that will experience a similar decline, likely in 2022 for most of them. For investors who are overweight these types of stocks, now is probably a time to consider diversifying in order to help keep the gains they have experienced the past couple of years. While there will be some overvalued stocks that simply stagnate for several years and go nowhere, and a rare few that manage to keep rising, the vast majority will experience declines like PayPal has experienced.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PYPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":917,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604113071,"gmtCreate":1639358428715,"gmtModify":1639358429270,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Can","listText":"Can","text":"Can","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604113071","repostId":"1175891189","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175891189","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639354864,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175891189?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-13 08:21","market":"us","language":"en","title":"2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022年持有苹果股票的2个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175891189","media":"TheStreet","summary":"As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform st","content":"<p>As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年接近尾声，投资者似乎相信苹果股票将在新的一年继续表现强劲。以下是他们可能是对的两个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock&nbsp;is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument&nbsp;that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>进入2022年，华尔街分析师继续争论苹果股票是否值得买入。最近，我提出了熊市论点，如果被证明是正确的，可以预测股价下跌18%左右。</blockquote></p><p> But investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.</p><p><blockquote>但随着苹果公司股价继续创出新高，投资者目前似乎站在多头一边。今天，我谈谈分析师最近提出的两个关键原因，这些原因表明苹果股票可能是新的一年的好选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e0accd2eec6d8660139f01d4786050\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 13、苹果手表和AirPods Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: not all about the holiday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：并非一切都与假期有关</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent headlines have highlighted&nbsp;the expected performance of the iPhone&nbsp;in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point&nbsp;contradicted earlier Wall Street projections&nbsp;for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最近的头条新闻凸显了iPhone在当前假期期间的预期表现。彭博社暗示，由于据称供应商取消订单，需求放缓。该数据点与华尔街早些时候对当前购物季iPhone出货量高于预期的预测相矛盾。</blockquote></p><p> But DigiTimes Taiwan has recently&nbsp;shifted&nbsp;the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>但DigiTimes Taiwan最近将关注的焦点转移到了更长远的领域。据该出版物称，苹果希望“明年上半年iPhone出货量增加30%，更大的目标是在2022年iPhone出货量超过3亿部。”</blockquote></p><p> If confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果得到证实，这将意味着同比大幅改善，尤其是在今年的前几个月。请记住（下图），这家库比蒂诺公司在2021年初放弃了iPhone销售的麦克风，为2022年的增长设定了非常高的标准。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee90d77969b11205181863715e8ab4f1\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：F19以来iPhone收入增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我要警告读者不要过于依赖关于iPhone销售的非官方公告。除了谣言的可靠性问题之外，对出货量增加的假设可能是对苹果为预测供应链限制而提高iPhone产量的误读。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Glass: the next big thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果玻璃：下一件大事</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been&nbsp;labeling&nbsp;the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.</p><p><blockquote>2022年持有AAPL的另一个关键原因可能是推出全新的产品类别。Wedbush的Dan Ives一直将这款新设备贴上“苹果眼镜”的标签，这是该公司首次尝试渗透AR/VR（增强和虚拟现实）领域。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives先生更进一步，估计了新产品对苹果股价的影响。这位分析师表示，该产品的推出“最终可能会使股票的部分总价值每股增加约20美元”。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested&nbsp;that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什并不是唯一一个做出乐观评估的人。摩根士丹利已经表示，苹果在2022年推出混合现实设备将成为备受争议的虚拟宇宙最终起飞的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果股价达到每股175美元的历史高点，但我仍维持对该公司的看涨立场。在我看来，苹果作为消费科技领域最重要参与者的地位是投资论点的核心。</blockquote></p><p> However, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请记住，在iPhone时代（即自2007年以来），以峰值价格购买AAPL的一年远期回报率平均“仅”为25%。相比之下，该股在下跌10%后买入时的平均年涨幅要好得多，为46%。</blockquote></p><p> From current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从目前的水平来看，我认为投资者应该期望获得比在股价下跌时买入更低的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022年持有苹果股票的2个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n2 Reasons To Own Apple Stock in 2022: iPhone, Apple Glass<blockquote>2022年持有苹果股票的2个理由：iPhone、苹果玻璃</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-13 08:21</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.</p><p><blockquote>随着2021年接近尾声，投资者似乎相信苹果股票将在新的一年继续表现强劲。以下是他们可能是对的两个原因。</blockquote></p><p> Wall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock&nbsp;is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument&nbsp;that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.</p><p><blockquote>进入2022年，华尔街分析师继续争论苹果股票是否值得买入。最近，我提出了熊市论点，如果被证明是正确的，可以预测股价下跌18%左右。</blockquote></p><p> But investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.</p><p><blockquote>但随着苹果公司股价继续创出新高，投资者目前似乎站在多头一边。今天，我谈谈分析师最近提出的两个关键原因，这些原因表明苹果股票可能是新的一年的好选择。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2e0accd2eec6d8660139f01d4786050\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"827\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：苹果的iPhone 13、苹果手表和AirPods Pro。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>iPhone: not all about the holiday</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iPhone：并非一切都与假期有关</b></blockquote></p><p> The recent headlines have highlighted&nbsp;the expected performance of the iPhone&nbsp;in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point&nbsp;contradicted earlier Wall Street projections&nbsp;for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.</p><p><blockquote>最近的头条新闻凸显了iPhone在当前假期期间的预期表现。彭博社暗示，由于据称供应商取消订单，需求放缓。该数据点与华尔街早些时候对当前购物季iPhone出货量高于预期的预测相矛盾。</blockquote></p><p> But DigiTimes Taiwan has recently&nbsp;shifted&nbsp;the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”</p><p><blockquote>但DigiTimes Taiwan最近将关注的焦点转移到了更长远的领域。据该出版物称，苹果希望“明年上半年iPhone出货量增加30%，更大的目标是在2022年iPhone出货量超过3亿部。”</blockquote></p><p> If confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.</p><p><blockquote>如果得到证实，这将意味着同比大幅改善，尤其是在今年的前几个月。请记住（下图），这家库比蒂诺公司在2021年初放弃了iPhone销售的麦克风，为2022年的增长设定了非常高的标准。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ee90d77969b11205181863715e8ab4f1\" tg-width=\"784\" tg-height=\"544\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Figure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图2：F19以来iPhone收入增长情况。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.</p><p><blockquote>不过，我要警告读者不要过于依赖关于iPhone销售的非官方公告。除了谣言的可靠性问题之外，对出货量增加的假设可能是对苹果为预测供应链限制而提高iPhone产量的误读。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apple Glass: the next big thing</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果玻璃：下一件大事</b></blockquote></p><p> The other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been&nbsp;labeling&nbsp;the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.</p><p><blockquote>2022年持有AAPL的另一个关键原因可能是推出全新的产品类别。Wedbush的Dan Ives一直将这款新设备贴上“苹果眼镜”的标签，这是该公司首次尝试渗透AR/VR（增强和虚拟现实）领域。</blockquote></p><p> Mr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.</p><p><blockquote>Ives先生更进一步，估计了新产品对苹果股价的影响。这位分析师表示，该产品的推出“最终可能会使股票的部分总价值每股增加约20美元”。</blockquote></p><p> Wedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested&nbsp;that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.</p><p><blockquote>韦德布什并不是唯一一个做出乐观评估的人。摩根士丹利已经表示，苹果在2022年推出混合现实设备将成为备受争议的虚拟宇宙最终起飞的关键催化剂。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> Even as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.</p><p><blockquote>尽管苹果股价达到每股175美元的历史高点，但我仍维持对该公司的看涨立场。在我看来，苹果作为消费科技领域最重要参与者的地位是投资论点的核心。</blockquote></p><p> However, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.</p><p><blockquote>然而，请记住，在iPhone时代（即自2007年以来），以峰值价格购买AAPL的一年远期回报率平均“仅”为25%。相比之下，该股在下跌10%后买入时的平均年涨幅要好得多，为46%。</blockquote></p><p> From current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.</p><p><blockquote>因此，从目前的水平来看，我认为投资者应该期望获得比在股价下跌时买入更低的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/2-reasons-to-own-apple-stock-in-2022-iphone-apple-glass\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/iphone/2-reasons-to-own-apple-stock-in-2022-iphone-apple-glass","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175891189","content_text":"As 2021 draws close to an end, investors seem confident that Apple stock will continue to perform strongly into the new year. Here are two reasons why they may be right.\nWall Street analysts continue to debate whether Apple stock is a buy as we head into 2022. Recently,I presented the bear argument that, if proven right, could foretell a drop of around 18% in the stock price.\nBut investors seem to be siding with bulls at the moment, as AAPL shares continue to make fresh highs. Today, I talk about two key reasons recently presented by analysts suggesting that Apple stock could be a good bet for the new year.\nFigure 1: Apple's iPhone 13, Apple Watch and AirPods Pro.\niPhone: not all about the holiday\nThe recent headlines have highlighted the expected performance of the iPhone in the current holiday period. Bloomberg hinted at a slowdown in demand, supported by alleged order cancellations with suppliers. The data point contradicted earlier Wall Street projections for an above-estimate volume of iPhone shipments in the current shopping season.\nBut DigiTimes Taiwan has recently shifted the focus of attention to the longer term. According to the publication, Apple is looking to “[increase] iPhone shipments by 30% for the first half of next year with the larger goal of exceeding 300 million iPhone shipments in 2022.”\nIf confirmed, this would represent massive YOY improvement, especially in the first few months of the year. Keep in mind (chart below) that the Cupertino company dropped the mic on iPhone sales in the early part of 2021, setting the bar very high for growth in 2022.\nFigure 2: iPhone revenue growth since F19.\nI would warn readers, however, not to rely too much on unofficial announcements about iPhone sales. In addition to the issue of reliability of rumors, the assumption of higher shipments could be a misread on Apple ramping up iPhone production to anticipate supply chain constraints.\nApple Glass: the next big thing\nThe other key reason to own AAPL in 2022 could be the introduction of a brand-new product category. Wedbush’s Dan Ives has been labeling the new device “Apple Glass”, the company’s first attempt at penetrating the AR/VR (augmented and virtual reality) space.\nMr. Ives goes further and estimates the impact of the new product on Apple stock price. According to the analyst, the product launch “could eventually add approximately $20 per share to the sum-of-the-parts value” of the shares.\nWedbush is not alone in its bullish assessment.Morgan Stanley has already suggested that Apple unveiling a mixed reality device in 2022 would be the key catalyst for the hotly-debated metaverse to finally take off.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nEven as Apple stock reaches its all-time high of $175 apiece, I maintain my bullish stance on the name. Apple’s position as the most important player in consumer tech is at the center of the investment thesis, in my view.\nHowever, keep in mind that buying AAPL at peak price has produced one-year forward returns of “only” 25%, on average, during the iPhone era (i.e. since 2007). This number compares to a much better 46% average annual gain when the stock was bought following a 10% drawdown.\nFrom current levels, therefore, I think that investors should expect to rake in lower returns than if they were buying a dip in share price.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":980,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":604966442,"gmtCreate":1639313205045,"gmtModify":1639313359710,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3574686466924712","idStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Q2 only","listText":"Q2 only","text":"Q2 only","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/604966442","repostId":"2190719916","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":958,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":825651463,"gmtCreate":1634223173713,"gmtModify":1634223454539,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>peace","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>peace","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$peace","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3290d92f227c5e951afc1a55f64df206","width":"1080","height":"3344"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/825651463","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1300,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4133229896288880","authorId":"4133229896288880","name":"2885ac2e","avatar":"https://community-static.tradeup.com/news/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4133229896288880","authorIdStr":"4133229896288880"},"content":"那么准确啊你不是发了","text":"那么准确啊你不是发了","html":"那么准确啊你不是发了"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":103955616,"gmtCreate":1619744738135,"gmtModify":1631891962951,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment &amp; 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What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130130857","media":"Barron's","summary":"What a year this has been for the markets!Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and  a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnin","content":"<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长的路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高新贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610680873436","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Strategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStrategists Say the Stock Market Could Struggle This Fall. What to Buy Now?<blockquote>策略师表示，今年秋天股市可能会陷入困境。现在买什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barron's</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 17:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&amp;P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.</p><p><blockquote>对于市场来说，这是多么美好的一年啊！在货币和财政刺激、经济和盈利增长以及（直到最近）疫情基本消退的推动下，标准普尔500股票指数已上涨20%，连续七个月上涨，并创下50多个高点。除此之外，去年市场从2020年3月的低点反弹了68%。</blockquote></p><p> Tailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.</p><p><blockquote>顺风依然存在，但逆风现在迫在眉睫，可能会减缓股市的上涨。刺激支出已经见顶，经济和企业盈利增长可能会在今年年底放缓。此外，美联储几乎承诺在未来几个月开始缩减债券购买规模，拜登政府也提议提高企业和个人税率。这些都不会让股价越来越贵的持有者满意。</blockquote></p><p> In other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，要做好迎接波动性下跌的准备，这种冲突迫使巴菲特股票、债券和投资者。Nuveen全球股票首席投资官Saira Malik表示：“一切反弹都已经过去。”“这不会是一场急剧上升的经济浪潮，将所有船只从这里抬起。”</blockquote></p><p> That’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whom<i>Barron’s</i>recently consulted. All see the S&amp;P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.</p><p><blockquote>这是六位市场策略师和首席投资官的普遍共识<i>巴伦周刊</i>最近咨询过。所有人都认为标普500将在周四收盘价4536点附近结束今年。他们的平均目标是：4585。</blockquote></p><p> Next year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&amp;P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.</p><p><blockquote>相对于最近的趋势，明年的涨幅看起来也很微弱。该集团预计2022年标普500将再增加6%，升至约4800。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/eb61c7b74b9b0f18a019afb4ac44ad59\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">With stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.</p><p><blockquote>由于股票交易价格约为来年预期收益的21倍，债券收益率很低，考虑通货膨胀后现金收益率低于零，投资者面临着艰难的资产配置决策。我们的市场观察人士建议关注“优质”投资，而不是提振快速增长的科技股、无增长的模因股和数字世界的狗狗币的“一切反弹”。在股票方面，这意味着拥有稳健的资产负债表、不断扩大的利润率以及充足且经常性的自由现金流的企业的股票。即使未来几个月平均指数表现不大，这些股票也可能会大放异彩。</blockquote></p><p> The stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.</p><p><blockquote>过去一年股市的大幅上涨是美联储的一份礼物，美联储向金融体系注入了大量资金，以避免新冠疫情造成的经济损失。自2020年3月以来，美联储每月购买总计1200亿美元的美国国债和抵押贷款支持证券，同时将基准联邦基金利率目标维持在0%至0.25%。这些举措压低了债券收益率，并推动投资者进入包括股票在内的风险较高的资产。</blockquote></p><p> Fed Chairman Jerome <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">Powell</a> has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”</p><p><blockquote>美联储主席杰罗姆<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/POWL\">鲍威尔</a>曾表示，央行可能会在未来几个季度的某个时候开始逐步减少或缩减紧急资产购买，此举可能会扰乱各类风险资产。摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)首席投资官兼首席美国股票策略师威尔逊(Mike Wilson)表示：“对我们来说，缩减规模很简单：缩减规模就是紧缩。这是（美联储）距离最大限度宽松政策迈出的第一步。他们这次对此非常谨慎，但底线是，这应该会对股票估值产生负面影响。”</blockquote></p><p> The government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>策略师指出，政府的刺激支出也已见顶。每周300美元的补充联邦失业救济金将于9月6日到期。尽管国会似乎有可能在今年秋天通过一项两党基础设施法案，但与2020年3月以来推出的多轮刺激措施相比，近期的经济影响将相形见绌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c2cb76c498c1c4c980139e3d0514c261\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.</p><p><blockquote>该法案包括约5500亿美元的新支出——只是之前法律授权的数万亿美元的一小部分——并且将分散在许多年内。基础设施刺激措施将给消费者支出带来的短期提振，占美国国内生产总值增长的近70%，但不会接近去年数百万美国人收到政府支票后的经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> A budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.</p><p><blockquote>仅由民主党批准的预算法案应该遵循基础设施法案，并包括支持医疗保险扩张、儿童保育资金、免费社区大学学费、公共住房和气候相关措施以及其他政党优先事项的支出。国会可能会投票提高企业和高收入个人的税收，以抵消这些支出——这是市场面临的另一个近期风险。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6693da658db16059fc99e08a7531675f\" tg-width=\"300\" tg-height=\"645\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Other politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> shutdown in October.</p><p><blockquote>今年秋天，其他带有政治色彩的问题同样可能会让股市脱轨。国会需要通过提高债务上限来为政府提供资金，并在本月晚些时候通过一项权宜之计的支出法案来避免<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿州</a>10月停工。</blockquote></p><p> For now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>目前，我们的市场专家对Covid-19德尔塔变异毒株的经济影响相对乐观。他们说，只要疫苗在最大限度地减少导致住院和死亡的严重感染方面仍然有效，当前Covid浪潮的负面影响将主要限于旅游业和电影院。华尔街对市场的基本假设不包括会破坏经济增长的新一波封锁。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.</p><p><blockquote>通胀一直是美联储和投资者的热门话题，部分原因是通胀最近非常火爆。6月和7月，美国消费者价格指数年化涨幅为5.4%，这是美联储评级暂时性的飙升，尽管其他人不太确定。策略师们站在鲍威尔一边。他们预计明年通胀将大幅下降。他们的预测在2.5%至3.5%之间，他们认为这对消费者和公司来说是可控的，也是经济快速增长的可接受的副作用。然而，通胀率高于2.5%，加上美联储缩减规模，意味着目前超低的债券收益率应该会上升。</blockquote></p><p> “We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”</p><p><blockquote>收益投资主管迈克尔·弗雷德里克斯(Michael Fredericks)表示：“我们认为通胀将继续比金融危机以来更高，但一旦许多与重新开放相关的压力开始消散，我们很难看到通胀率远高于2.5%。”贝莱德多资产策略集团。“因此债券收益率确实需要上升，但这将逐渐发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for&nbsp;the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.</p><p><blockquote>策略师预计，到年底，10年期美国国债收益率将攀升至1.65%左右。这比当前水平高出约35个基点（即百分之几个百分点），但低于2021年3月收益率高点时达到的1.75%。该组织表示，到明年，10年期国债收益率可能达到2%。从绝对值来看，这些举措并不是很大，但对债券市场来说意义重大，对股票来说可能更是如此。</blockquote></p><p> Rising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&amp;P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.</p><p><blockquote>收益率上升往往会打压股票估值，原因有二。高收益债券提供了与股票的竞争，当以更高的利率贴现时，公司的未来收益在目前毫无价值。尽管如此，2%左右的10年期国债收益率仍不足以将股票估值降至新冠疫情爆发前的水平。即使收益率攀升，市场策略师认为标普500的市盈率仍远高于预期市盈率16倍的30年平均水平。去年秋天，该指数的远期市盈率突破23。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e08d24cb421d7cc13debd76a9c6fea01\" tg-width=\"660\" tg-height=\"434\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&amp;P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.</p><p><blockquote>策略师表示，只要10年期国债收益率保持在2%的范围内，标普500的远期市盈率就应该能够在十几岁左右。除非收益率高得多或其他导致股市下跌的因素带来更大压力，否则不可能回到16倍的长期平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> If yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">State</a> Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”</p><p><blockquote>表示，如果收益率飙升超过2%或2.25%，投资者可能会开始更严重地质疑股票估值<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/STT\">国家</a>Street首席投资组合策略师Gaurav Mallik：“我们已经有一段时间没有看到（10年期国债收益率）超过2%了，因此这对投资者来说是一个重要的情绪水平。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/93ff6490069ab5dc1b4057f1ff7966f3\" tg-width=\"664\" tg-height=\"441\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Wilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says</p><p><blockquote>威尔逊更担心，他指出，股市的估值风险是不对称的：“市盈率不太可能上升，考虑到增长放缓和我们所处的位置，市盈率很有可能下降10%以上。在周期中，”他说</blockquote></p><p> If 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”</p><p><blockquote>他补充道，如果预期市盈率为16至23倍，“你已经处于这个范围的很高端。潜在风险大于回报。”</blockquote></p><p> Some P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&amp;P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.</p><p><blockquote>所有六位策略师的预测都包含了一些市盈率倍数的压缩，这对利润增长的路径变得更加重要。平均而言，策略师预计，继去年的盈利低迷之后，标普500今年的盈利将增长46%，至204美元左右。随后，2022年可能会上涨9%，达到约222.50美元。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> A potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.</p><p><blockquote>一个潜在的阻力是2022年联邦企业税率上升。民主党支出和税收计划的细节将在未来几周内制定出来，投资者可以期待听到更多有关潜在增税的消息。几位策略师认为，25%的联邦企业利润税率可能是一个妥协数字，高于2018年以来实施的21%，但低于拜登政府寻求的28%。</blockquote></p><p> An increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&amp;P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-time event for the market, some strategists predict.</p><p><blockquote>如此幅度的增长将使标普500明年的盈利减少约5%。随着今年秋天民主党和解法案的通过，该指数可能会下跌类似的幅度，但影响应该仅限于最初的调整。与2017年12月的减税一样，这一变化应该是<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>——一些策略师预测，市场的时间事件。</blockquote></p><p> These concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.</p><p><blockquote>抛开这些担忧不谈，投资者不应错过更大的图景：美国经济状况良好，增长强劲。策略师预计今年国内生产总值将增长6.3%，2022年将增长约4%。Mallik表示：“周期性上涨和高于趋势的增长将至少持续到2022年，我们希望偏向于具有这种风险的资产。”</blockquote></p><p>   “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets  The State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.</p><p><blockquote>“今明两年我们的经济将会火爆。当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会战胜增长，周期性会战胜防御性。”—Lori Calvasina，加拿大皇家银行资本市场道富策略师建议在投资组合中增持材料、金融和科技股。这种方法既包括银行和矿业公司等对经济敏感的公司，也包括科技行业的稳定增长者。</blockquote></p><p> RBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国股票策略主管洛里·卡尔瓦西纳(Lori Calvasina)同样采取杠铃法，同时投资周期性和成长性。她最喜欢的行业是能源、金融和技术。</blockquote></p><p> “Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“金融和能源行业的估值仍然比增长行业（科技或非必需消费品等行业）更具吸引力。”“近期的催化剂是摆脱当前的新冠疫情浪潮……今年和明年我们将迎来经济火爆，传统上，当GDP增长高于平均水平时，价值会跑赢增长，周期性会跑赢防御性。”</blockquote></p><p> But the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.</p><p><blockquote>但对质量的关注将是关键，尤其是进入2022年下半年。届时美联储可能会在本周期内首次加息。到2023年，经济可能会恢复到新冠疫情前2%左右的增长。</blockquote></p><p> “The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”</p><p><blockquote>卡尔瓦西纳表示：“历史上的剧本是，走出衰退后，你往往会看到持续一年左右的低质量优异表现，然后领导力又会恢复到高质量。”“但从低质量回到高质量的转变往往非常坎坷。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Shopping List for Fall</b></p><p><blockquote><b>秋季购物清单</b></blockquote></p><p> Most strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.</p><p><blockquote>大多数策略师青睐对经济敏感的股票和稳定增长的股票（包括科技股）的组合。金融股应该会表现良好，特别是如果债券收益率上升的话。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a54c4bd114c1a5f7f700d1fc14d30d8e\" tg-width=\"970\" tg-height=\"230\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Although stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a> analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.</p><p><blockquote>尽管今年夏天具有质量属性的股票表现优于大盘，但根据一家<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>分析，自去年11月首次报道疫苗正面消息以来，质量因素一直滞后。</blockquote></p><p> “We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”</p><p><blockquote>贝莱德的弗雷德里克斯表示：“我们正在进入周期中期环境，基本经济增长仍然强劲，但势头开始减速。”“我们的研究表明，优质股票在这样的时期表现尤其出色。”</blockquote></p><p> He recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.</p><p><blockquote>他建议增持盈利的科技公司；金融，包括银行，以及具有这些质量特征的消费品和工业。</blockquote></p><p> For <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.</p><p><blockquote>为了<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>股票策略主管克里斯托弗·哈维(Christopher Harvey)表示，大流行后受益者和防御性敞口的结合才是正确的选择。他构建了一篮子波动性低于平均水平的股票——在今年秋季市场不确定性或压力时期，这些股票应该会跑赢大盘——并且“新冠贝塔值”较高，即对有关大流行的好消息或坏消息的敏感性。一个要求；富国银行的股票分析师必须将这些股票评级为“买入”。</blockquote></p><p> “There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”</p><p><blockquote>哈维表示：“近期经济存在不确定性、利率不确定性和新冠病毒风险，一般来说，我们正处于9月份左右的季节性疲软时期。”“如果我们能够平衡低波动性和高新贝塔值，我们就可以减轻其中几种催化剂时机即将到来的不确定性和波动性。不过，从长远来看，我们仍然希望[重新开放风险。]”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Harvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a>(BAC),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">Northern</a> Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a> Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).</p><p><blockquote>哈维列出的具有高新贝塔值的低波动性股票名单包括苹果(AAPL)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>（BAC），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NTRSP\">北方的</a>信托(NTRS)、劳氏(LOW)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/IQV\">IQVIA</a>控股公司（IQV）和马斯科公司（MAS）。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，银行是未来几个月最常被推荐的群体。Invesco KBW银行交易所交易基金(KBWB)提供对美国该行业的广泛投资。</blockquote></p><p> “We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.</p><p><blockquote>“我们喜欢估值和信用质量；他们现在被允许回购股票并增加股息，而且新冠贝塔值更高，”哈维说。</blockquote></p><p> Cheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.</p><p><blockquote>较低的估值意味着市场调整中潜在的下行空间较小。而且，与股市的其他大部分地区相反，更高的利率将成为银行的顺风车，银行可能会收取更高的贷款费用。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">Healthcare</a> stocks also have some fans. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">Healthcare</a> has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a> analysts and fitting his macro views.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HCSG\">医疗保健</a>股票也有一些粉丝。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HR\">医疗保健</a>具有防御性和成长性，”威尔逊说。“如今，医疗保健行业每单位增长支付的费用比其他行业低得多。因此，我们认为，当我们担心估值时，它为这个市场提供了良好的平衡。”健康保险公司Humana(HUM)跻身威尔逊“新鲜资金买入名单”股票买入评级<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>分析师并符合他的宏观观点。</blockquote></p><p> Nuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.</p><p><blockquote>Nuveen的Malik还将目光投向医疗保健领域，以获得相对低估的增长机会，即制药和生物技术领域。她指出了Seagen(SGEN)，该公司专注于肿瘤药物，可能成为制药巨头有吸引力的收购目标。</blockquote></p><p> Malik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.</p><p><blockquote>马利克还喜欢艾伯维(ABBV)，该公司的预期市盈率为8倍，股息收益率为4.7%。其重磅抗炎药修美乐(Humira)的专利即将到期，这让一些投资者望而却步，但马利克相信管理层能够限制损失，并看到这家价值2000亿美元的公司正在开发有前途的药物。</blockquote></p><p> Both stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">AbbVie</a>’s most promising post-Humira products.</p><p><blockquote>这两只股票最近几天都过得很艰难。Seagen上周跌超8%，报152美元左右，因有消息称其联合创始人兼首席执行官近期大量抛售股票。在美国食品和药物管理局要求为JAK抑制剂贴上新的警告标签后，ABBVIE周三上涨7%，至112.27美元。JAK抑制剂是一种抗类风湿药物，其中包括一种<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ABBV\">艾伯维</a>最有前途的后修美乐产品。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">Pfizer</a>(PFE),<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">American Express</a>(AXP),Johnson &amp; Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&amp;P 500 members that pass a<i>Barron’s</i>screen for quality attributes.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PFE\">辉瑞</a>（PFE），<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AXP\">美国运通</a>(AXP)、强生(JNJ)和思科系统(CSCO)是其他通过A的标普500成员<i>巴伦周刊</i>筛选质量属性。</blockquote></p><p> After a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> be more selective. And go with quality.</p><p><blockquote>经过一年的稳定上涨后，今年秋天投资者可能会被提醒，随着增长势头和政策支持开始消退，股市也可能下跌。但如果市场从高点下跌，潜在的经济实力支持逢低买入。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>更有选择性。追求质量。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2\">Barron's</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-could-struggle-this-fall-market-strategists-say-stick-with-quality-companies-51630699840?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130130857","content_text":"What a year this has been for the markets! Fueled by a torrent of monetary and fiscal stimulus, economic and earnings growth, and (until recently) a mostly receding pandemic, theS&P 500stock index has rallied 20%, notching seven straight months of gains and more than 50 highs along the way. And that’s on top of last year’s 68% rebound from the market’s March 2020 lows.\nTailwinds remain in place, but headwinds now loom that could slow stocks’ advance. Stimulus spending has peaked, and economic and corporate-earnings growth are likely to decelerate through the end of the year. What’s more, theFederal Reserve has all but promised to start tapering its bond buyingin coming months, and the Biden administration has proposed hiking corporate and personal tax rates. None of this is apt to sit well with holders of increasingly pricey shares.\nIn other words,brace for a volatile fallin which conflicting forces buffet stocks, bonds, and investors. “The everything rally is behind us,” says Saira Malik, chief investment officer of global equities at Nuveen. “It’s not going to be a sharply rising economic tide that lifts all boats from here.”\nThat’s the general consensus among the six market strategists and chief investment officers whomBarron’srecently consulted. All see the S&P 500 ending the year near Thursday’s close of 4536. Their average target: 4585.\nNext year’s gains look muted, as well, relative to recent trends. The group expects the S&P 500 to tack on another 6% in 2022, rising to about 4800.\nWith stocks trading for about 21 times the coming year’s expected earnings,bonds yielding little, and cash yielding less than nothing after accounting for inflation, investors face tough asset-allocation decisions. In place of the “everything rally,” which lifted fast-growing tech stocks, no-growth meme stocks, and the Dogecoins of the digital world, our market watchers recommend focusing on “quality” investments. In equities, that means shares of businesses with solid balance sheets, expanding profit margins, and ample and recurring free cash flow. Even if the averages do little in coming months, these stocks are likely to shine.\nThe stock market’s massive rally in the past year was a gift of sorts from the Federal Reserve, which flooded the financial system with money to stave off theeconomic damage wrought by the Covid pandemic. Since March 2020, the U.S. central bank has been buying a combined $120 billion a month of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities, while keeping its benchmark federal-funds rate target at 0% to 0.25%. These moves have depressed bond yields and pushed investors into riskier assets, including stocks.\nFed Chairman Jerome Powell has said that the central bank might begin to wind down, or taper, its emergency asset purchases sometime in the coming quarters, a move that could roil risk assets of all sorts. “For us, it’s very simple: Tapering is tightening,” says Mike Wilson, chief investment officer and chief U.S. equity strategist atMorgan Stanley.“It’s the first step away from maximum accommodation [by the Fed]. They’re being very calculated about it this time, but the bottom line is that it should have a negative effect on equity valuations.”\nThe government’s stimulus spending, too, has peaked, the strategists note. Supplemental federal unemployment benefits of $300 a week expire as of Sept. 6. Although Congress seems likely to pass a bipartisan infrastructure bill this fall, the near-term economic impact will pale in comparison to the multiple rounds of stimulus introduced since March 2020.\nThe bill includes about $550 billion in new spending—a fraction of the trillions authorized by previous laws—and it will be spread out over many years. The short-term boost that infrastructure stimulus will give to consumer spending, which accounts for almost 70% of U.S. growth domestic product, won’t come close to what the economy saw after millions of Americans received checks from the government this past year.\nA budget bill approved by Democrats only should follow the infrastructure bill, and include spending to support Medicare expansion, child-care funding, free community-college tuition, public housing, and climate-related measures, among other party priorities. Congress could vote to lift taxes on corporations and high-earning individuals to offset that spending—another near-term risk to the market.\nOther politically charged issues likewise could derail equities this fall. Congress needs to pass a debt-ceiling increase to fund the government, and a stop-gap spending bill later this month to avoid a Washington shutdown in October.\nFor now, our market experts are relatively sanguine about the economic impact of the Delta variant of Covid-19. As long as vaccines remain effective in minimizing severe infections that lead to hospitalizations and deaths, the negative effects of the current Covid wave will be limited largely to the travel industry and movie theaters, they say. Wall Street’s base case for the market doesn’t include a renewed wave of lockdowns that would undermine economic growth.\nInflation has been a hot topic at the Fed and among investors, partly because it has been running so hot of late. The U.S. consumer price index rose at an annualized 5.4% in both June and July—a spike the Fed calls transitory, although others aren’t so sure. The strategists are taking Powell’s side of the argument; they expect inflation to fall significantly next year. Their forecasts fall between 2.5% and 3.5%, which they consider manageable for consumers and companies, and an acceptable side effect of rapid economic growth. An inflation rate above 2.5%, however, combined with Fed tapering, would mean that now ultralow bond yields should rise.\n“We think inflation will continue to run hotter than it has since the financial crisis, but it’s hard for us to see inflation much over 2.5% once many of the reopening-related pressures start to dissipate,” says Michael Fredericks, head of income investing for theBlackRockMulti-Asset Strategies Group. “So bond yields do need to move up, but that will happen gradually.”\nThe strategists see the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note climbing to around 1.65% by year end. That’s about 35 basis points—or hundredths of a percentage point—above current levels, but below the 1.75% that the yield reached at its March 2021 highs. By next year, the 10-year Treasury could yield 2%, the group says. Those aren’t big moves in absolute terms, but they’re meaningful for the bond market—and could be even more so for stocks.\nRising yields tend to weigh on stock valuations for two reasons. Higher-yielding bonds offer competition to stocks, and companies’ future earnings are worthless in the present when discounting them at a higher rate. Still, a 10-year yield around 2% won’t be enough to knock stock valuations down to pre-Covid levels. Even if yields climb, market strategists see the price/earnings multiple of the S&P 500 holding well above its 30-year average of 16 times forward earnings. The index’s forward P/E topped 23 last fall.\n\nAs long as 10-year Treasury yields stay in the 2% range, the S&P 500 should be able to command a forward P/E in the high teens, strategists say. A return to the 16-times long-term average isn’t in the cards until there is more pressure from much higher yields—or something else that causes stocks to fall.\nIf yields surge past 2% or 2.25%, investors could start to question equity valuations more seriously, says State Street’schief portfolio strategist, Gaurav Mallik: “We haven’t seen [the 10-year yield] above 2% for some time now, so that’s an important sentiment level for investors.”\n\nWilson is more concerned, noting that the stock market’s valuation risk is asymmetric: “It’s very unlikely that multiples are going to go up, and there’s a good chance that they go down more than 10% given the deceleration in growth and where we are in the cycle,” he says\nIf 16 to 23 times forward earnings is the range, he adds, “you’re already at the very high end of that. There’s more potential risk than reward.”\nSome P/E-multiple compression is baked into all six strategists’ forecasts, heaping greater importance on the path of profit growth. On average, the strategists expect S&P 500 earnings to jump 46% this year, to about $204, after last year’s earnings depression. That could be followed by a more normalized gain of 9% in 2022, to about $222.50.\nA potential headwind would be a higher federal corporate-tax rate in 2022. The details of Democrats’ spending and taxation plans will be worked out in the coming weeks, and investors can expect to hear a lot more about potential tax increases. Several strategists see a 25% federal rate on corporate profits as a likely compromise figure, above the 21% in place since 2018, but below the 28% sought by the Biden administration.\nAn increase of that magnitude would shave about 5% off S&P 500 earnings next year. The index could drop by a similar amount as the passage of the Democrats’ reconciliation bill nears this fall, but the impact should be limited to that initial correction. As with the tax cuts in December 2017, the change should be a one-time event for the market, some strategists predict.\nThese concerns aside, investors shouldn’t miss the bigger picture: The U.S. economy is in good shape and growing robustly. The strategists expect gross domestic product to rise 6.3% this year and about 4% in 2022. “The cyclical uplift and above-trend growth will continue at least through 2022, and we want to be biased toward assets that have that exposure,” says Mallik.\n\n “We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next. When GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”— Lori Calvasina, RBC Capital Markets\n\nThe State Street strategist recommends overweighting materials, financials, and technology in investment portfolios. That approach includes both economically sensitive companies, such as banks and miners, and steady growers in the tech sector.\nRBC Capital Markets’ head of U.S. equity strategy, Lori Calvasina, likewise takes a barbell approach, with both cyclical and growth exposure. Her preferred sectors are energy, financials, and technology.\n“Valuations are still a lot more attractive in financials and energy than growth [sectors such as technology or consumer discretionary,]” Calvasina says. “The catalyst in the near term is getting out of the current Covid wave... We’re going to have a hot economy this year and next, and traditionally when GDP growth is above average, value beats growth and cyclicals beat defensives.”\nBut the focus on quality will be pivotal, especially moving into the second half of 2022. That’s when the Fed is likely to hike interest rates for the first time in this cycle. By 2023, the economy could return to pre-Covid growth on the order of 2%.\n“The historical playbook is that coming out of a recession, you tend to see low-quality outperformance that lasts about a year, then leadership flips back to high quality,” Calvasina says. “But that transition from low quality back to high quality tends to be very bumpy.”\nA Shopping List for Fall\nMost strategists favor a combination of economically sensitive stocks and steady growers, including tech shares. Financials should do well, particularly if bond yields rise.\n\nAlthough stocks with quality attributes have outperformed the market this summer, according to a BlackRock analysis, the quality factor has lagged since positive vaccine news was first reported last November.\n“We’re moving into a mid-cycle environment, when underlying economic growth remains strong but momentum begins to decelerate,” BlackRock’s Fredericks says. “Our research shows that quality stocks perform particularly well in such a period.”\nHe recommends overweighting profitable technology companies; financials, including banks, and consumer staples and industrials with those quality characteristics.\nFor Wells Fargo’s head of equity strategy, Christopher Harvey, a mix of post-pandemic beneficiaries and defensive exposure is the way to go. He constructed a basket of stocks with lower-than-average volatility—which should outperform during periods of market uncertainty or stress this fall—and high “Covid beta,” or sensitivity to good or bad news about the pandemic. One requirement; The stocks had to be rated the equivalent of Buy by Wells Fargo’s equity analysts.\n“There’s near-term economic uncertainty, interest-rate uncertainty, and Covid risk, and generally we’re in a seasonally weaker part of the year around September,” says Harvey. “If we can balance low vol and high Covid beta, we can mitigate a lot of the upcoming uncertainty and volatility around timing of several of those catalysts. Longer-term, though, we still want to have that [reopening exposure.]”\nHarvey’s list of low-volatility stocks with high Covid beta includesApple(AAPL),Bank of America(BAC),Northern Trust(NTRS),Lowe’s(LOW),IQVIA Holdings(IQV), andMasco(MAS).\nOverall, banks are the most frequently recommended group for the months ahead. TheInvesco KBW Bankexchange-traded fund (KBWB) provides broad exposure to the sector in the U.S.\n“We like the valuations [and] credit quality; they are now allowed to buy back shares and increase dividends, and there’s higher Covid beta,” says Harvey.\nCheaper valuations mean less potential downside in a market correction. And, contrary to much of the rest of the stock market, higher interest rates would be a tailwind for the banks, which could then charge more for loans.\nHealthcare stocks also have some fans. “Healthcare has both defensive and growth attributes to it,” Wilson says. “You’re paying a lot less per unit of growth in healthcare today than you are in other sectors. So we think it provides good balance in this market when we’re worried about valuation.” Health insurerHumana(HUM) makes Wilson’s “Fresh Money Buy List” of stocks Buy-rated by Morgan Stanley analysts and fitting his macro views.\nNuveen’s Malik is also looking toward health care for relatively underpriced growth exposure, namely in the pharmaceuticals and biotechnology groups. She points toSeagen(SGEN), which is focused on oncology drugs and could be an attractive acquisition target for a pharma giant.\nMalik also likesAbbVie(ABBV) which trades at an undemanding eight times forward earnings and sports a 4.7% dividend yield. The coming expiration of patents on its blockbuster anti-inflammatory drug Humira has kept some investors away, but Malik is confident that management can limit the damage and sees promising drugs in development at the $200 billion company.\nBoth stocks have had a tough time in recent days. Seagen fell more than 8% last week, to around $152, on news that its co-founder and CEO sold a large number of shares recently. AndAbbVietanked 7% Wednesday, to $112.27, after the Food and Drug Administration required new warning labels for JAK inhibitors, a type of anti-rheumatoid drug that includes one of AbbVie’s most promising post-Humira products.\nPfizer(PFE),American Express(AXP),Johnson & Johnson(JNJ), andCisco Systems(CSCO) are other S&P 500 members that pass aBarron’sscreen for quality attributes.\nAfter a year of steady gains, investors might be reminded this fall that stocks can also decline, as growth momentum and policy support begin to fade. But underlying economic strength supports buying the dip, should the market drop from its highs. Just be more selective. And go with quality.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":229,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":191629963,"gmtCreate":1620875840352,"gmtModify":1631891963062,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Let's go fishing","listText":"Let's go fishing","text":"Let's go fishing","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/191629963","repostId":"2135584610","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":501,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":375667007,"gmtCreate":1619334415509,"gmtModify":1631891963069,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Like comment thx","listText":"Like comment thx","text":"Like comment thx","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/375667007","repostId":"1184404050","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":613,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":693895251,"gmtCreate":1639996116577,"gmtModify":1639996117170,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","listText":"Hahahaa ok&nbsp;","text":"Hahahaa ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/693895251","repostId":"1130704419","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1130704419","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1639953553,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1130704419?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-20 06:39","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1130704419","media":"Barrons","summary":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.On Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports per","content":"<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份成屋销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Nike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNike, Micron, BlackBerry, CarMax, and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>Nike、Micron、黑莓、CarMax等本周值得投资者关注的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-20 06:39</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday&nbsp;break,Nike&nbsp;and&nbsp;Micron Technology&nbsp;report on Monday,BlackBerry&nbsp;and&nbsp;General Mills&nbsp;on Tuesday, and&nbsp;CarMax,Cintas,and&nbsp;Paychex&nbsp;on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>世界各地的股票和债券市场将于周五休市以庆祝圣诞节。假期前，Nike和Micron Technology将于周一发布报告，黑莓和通用磨坊将于周二发布报告，CarMax、Cintas和Paychex将于周三发布报告。</blockquote></p><p> It will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the&nbsp;Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed&nbsp;by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>这将是经济数据发布繁忙的一周。周一，世界大型企业联合会将公布11月份领先经济指数，随后将于周三公布12月份消费者信心指数。</blockquote></p><p> On Thursday, the&nbsp;Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core&nbsp;PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.</p><p><blockquote>周四，经济分析局将公布11月份个人收入和消费支出。消费者收入预计将增长0.6%，而支出预计将增长0.5%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE物价指数预计11月份将飙升4.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Also Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>同样在周四，人口普查局发布了11月份耐用品报告，这将为了解经济中的投资支出提供一个窗口。新订单预计将增长2.1%。本周公布的房地产市场指标包括周三公布的11月份成屋销售和周四公布的11月份新房销售。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Monday 12/20</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期一12/20</b></blockquote></p><p> Micron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>美光科技和耐克公布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布11月份领先经济指数。普遍估计读数为119，比10月份的水平高出0.6%。世界大型企业联合会目前预计第四季度国内生产总值增长率为5%，2022年增长率较慢但仍强劲的2.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Tuesday 12/21</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期二12/21</b></blockquote></p><p> BlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.</p><p><blockquote>黑莓、FactSet Research Systems和通用磨坊公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Wednesday 12/22</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期三12/22</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The NAR reports</b> existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.</p><p><blockquote><b>NAR报告</b>11月份现房销售。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的房屋销售量年率为640万套，略高于10月份，为年初以来的最高水平。</blockquote></p><p> CarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>CarMax、Cintas和Paychex评级召开会议讨论季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bureau of Economic</b> Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.</p><p><blockquote><b>经济局</b>分析报告了对第三季度GDP的第三次也是最终估计。经济学家预测，经季节调整后的年增长率为2.1%，与11月的第二次估计持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Conference Board</b> releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.</p><p><blockquote><b>世界大型企业联合会</b>发布12月份消费者信心指数。预期读数为110，与11月数据大致持平。该指数比今年6月达到的大流行后峰值低15%，原因是对价格上涨以及较小程度上对Covid-19变种的担忧。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Thursday 12/23</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期四12/23</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>The Department of Labor</b> reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.</p><p><blockquote><b>劳工部</b>报告截至12月18日当周首次申请失业救济人数。11月和12月平均每周申请失业救济人数为225,667人，最终达到了大流行前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>报告11月份新房销售。市场普遍估计，经季节调整后的新单户住宅年增长率为77万套，比10月份增加2.5万套。10月份售出的新房销售价格中位数为40.77万美元，而平均销售价格为47.78万美元——均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>11月份个人收入和消费支出。经济学家预测收入每月增长0.6%，消费每月增长0.5%。相比之下，10月份的涨幅分别为0.5%和1.3%。美联储首选的通胀指标核心PCE价格指数10月份同比上涨4.1%，为1991年以来最快增速。预计11月份将飙升4.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布11月份耐用品报告。耐用品新订单预计将增长2.1%，达到2656亿美元。不包括运输，新订单预计将增长0.6%，而10月份为增长0.5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Friday 12/24</b></p><p><blockquote><b>星期五12/24</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. equity</b>&nbsp;and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股票</b>固定收益市场因圣诞节而休市。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","CTAS":"信达思","KMX":"车美仕","MU":"美光科技","PAYX":"沛齐",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","GIS":"通用磨坊"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/nike-micron-blackberry-carmax-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51639944183?mod=hp_LEAD_5","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1130704419","content_text":"Stock and bond markets around the world will be closed Friday in observance of Christmas. Before the holiday break,Nike and Micron Technology report on Monday,BlackBerry and General Mills on Tuesday, and CarMax,Cintas,and Paychex on Wednesday.\nIt will be a busy week of economic data releases. On Monday, the Conference Board publishes its Leading Economic Index for November, followed by its Consumer Confidence Index for December on Wednesday.\nOn Thursday, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Consumer earnings are forecast to have risen 0.6% while spending is seen climbing 0.5%. The Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation, the core PCE price index, is expected to have spiked 4.5% in November.\nAlso Thursday, the Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November, which will provide a window into investment spending in the economy. New orders are forecast to have risen 2.1%. Housing-market indicators out this week include existing-home sales for November on Wednesday and new-home sales for November on Thursday.\nMonday 12/20\nMicron Technology and Nike report quarterly results.\nThe Conference Board releases its Leading Economic Index for November. Consensus estimate is for a 119 reading, which would be 0.6% more than October’s level. The Conference Board currently projects a 5% growth rate for fourth-quarter gross domestic product and a slower but still robust 2.6% for 2022.\nTuesday 12/21\nBlackBerry,FactSet Research Systems,and General Mills announce earnings.\nWednesday 12/22\nThe NAR reports existing-home sales for November. Economists forecast a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.4 million homes sold, slightly more than in October and the highest since the beginning of the year.\nCarMax, Cintas, and Paychex hold conference calls to discuss quarterly results.\nThe Bureau of Economic Analysis reports its third and final estimate for third-quarter GDP. Economists forecast a 2.1% seasonally adjusted annual growth rate, unchanged from November’s second estimate.\nThe Conference Board releases its Consumer Confidence Index for December. Expectations are for a 110 reading, roughly even with the November data. The index is 15% lower than the postpandemic peak reached in June of this year, due to concerns about rising prices and, to a lesser degree, Covid-19 variants.\nThursday 12/23\nThe Department of Labor reports initial jobless claims for the week ending on Dec. 18. Jobless claims have averaged 225,667 a week in November and December, and have finally reached prepandemic levels.\nThe Census Bureau reports new-home sales for November. Consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 770,000 new single-family houses sold, 25,000 more than in October. The median sales price of new houses sold in October was $407,700, while the average sales price was $477,800—both record highs.\nThe BEA reports personal income and consumption expenditures for November. Economists forecast a 0.6% monthly increase for income and 0.5% for consumption. This compares with gains for 0.5% and 1.3%, respectively, in October. The Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge, the core PCE price index, jumped 4.1% year over year in October, the fastest rate since 1991. Predictions are for it to spike 4.6% in November.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable goods report for November. New orders for durable manufactured goods are expected to increase 2.1%, to $265.6 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen gaining 0.6%, compared with a 0.5% rise in October.\nFriday 12/24\nU.S. equity and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Christmas.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"PAYX":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"GIS":0.9,"KMX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CTAS":0.9,"MU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2561,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":146647378,"gmtCreate":1626078971794,"gmtModify":1631891963078,"author":{"id":"3574686466924712","authorId":"3574686466924712","name":"Ignis","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/543d1f3e8b4901fba226eb61e5713bc4","crmLevel":6,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3574686466924712","authorIdStr":"3574686466924712"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>approach with caution","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$</a>approach with caution","text":"$Virgin Galactic(SPCE)$approach with caution","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146647378","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":736,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}