ahdog的个人主页 - 老虎社区

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2021-06-11

sad news

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2021-04-26

interesting!

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2021-06-24

forget this forget that

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2021-06-23

good news!!!

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2021-06-18

Lets get back into green!

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2021-05-02

interesting!

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2021-03-26

awesome! like and comment please!

“meme” stocks are flying again<blockquote>“模因”股票再次飞涨</blockquote>

2021-05-21

fantastic news!

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2021-03-16

wow great! help to comment please

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2021-07-03

when moon?

2021-03-19

Interesting

Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks<blockquote>价值股如此受青睐，已成为动量股</blockquote>

2021-06-07

wow, interesting

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2021-06-22

interesting news

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2021-06-17

oh my!

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2021-06-08

patiently waiting...

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2021-03-18

interesting

What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>

2021-06-21

hmmmm....

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2021-06-15

wow interesting

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2021-05-05

so sad

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2021-04-30

fantastic news

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this again","listText":"not this again","text":"not this again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162020673","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1566,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168882462,"gmtCreate":1623971540856,"gmtModify":1631891096606,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets get back into green!","listText":"Lets get back into green!","text":"Lets get back into 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🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160645872","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":677,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160933804,"gmtCreate":1623768606208,"gmtModify":1631892306144,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wowwww","listText":"wowwww","text":"wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160933804","repostId":"1101819642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":807,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160990758,"gmtCreate":1623768264874,"gmtModify":1631892306147,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160990758","repostId":"1187102856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160990157,"gmtCreate":1623768253179,"gmtModify":1631892306149,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160990157","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the 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tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118765630","repostId":"1182667134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":471,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131746032,"gmtCreate":1621899103826,"gmtModify":1631892306165,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fantastic!","listText":"Fantastic!","text":"Fantastic!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131746032","repostId":"2138159407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":481,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":181927611,"gmtCreate":1623371439033,"gmtModify":1631892306155,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sad 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this forget that","listText":"forget this forget that","text":"forget this forget that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121418436","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1825,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123061100,"gmtCreate":1624403899900,"gmtModify":1631891096559,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good news!!!","listText":"good news!!!","text":"good news!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123061100","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1951,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168882462,"gmtCreate":1623971540856,"gmtModify":1631891096606,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets get back into green!","listText":"Lets get back into green!","text":"Lets get back into green!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168882462","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1731,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101253402,"gmtCreate":1619918332806,"gmtModify":1634209160410,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting!","listText":"interesting!","text":"interesting!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101253402","repostId":"1152594140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":458,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358240099,"gmtCreate":1616710278511,"gmtModify":1634524486704,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"awesome! like and comment please!","listText":"awesome! like and comment please!","text":"awesome! like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358240099","repostId":"1182633612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182633612","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616685155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182633612?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"“meme” stocks are flying again<blockquote>“模因”股票再次飞涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182633612","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some “meme” stocks are flying again in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up ","content":"<p>Some&nbsp;“meme” stocks are flying again&nbsp;in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express&nbsp;is&nbsp;up&nbsp;10%.</p><p><blockquote>一些“模因”股票在周四交易中再次飞涨。Koss股价上涨48%，游戏驿站上涨28%，AMC院线上涨17%，Express上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1302a53fc18c4f16064864cc99f90108\" tg-width=\"369\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“meme” stocks are flying again<blockquote>“模因”股票再次飞涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“meme” stocks are flying again<blockquote>“模因”股票再次飞涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-03-25 23:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some&nbsp;“meme” stocks are flying again&nbsp;in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express&nbsp;is&nbsp;up&nbsp;10%.</p><p><blockquote>一些“模因”股票在周四交易中再次飞涨。Koss股价上涨48%，游戏驿站上涨28%，AMC院线上涨17%，Express上涨10%。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1302a53fc18c4f16064864cc99f90108\" tg-width=\"369\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AMC":"AMC院线","KOSS":"高斯电子","GME":"游戏驿站"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182633612","content_text":"Some “meme” stocks are flying again in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express is up 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GME":0.9,"KOSS":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":393,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130287526,"gmtCreate":1621552942065,"gmtModify":1634188258337,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fantastic news!","listText":"fantastic news!","text":"fantastic news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130287526","repostId":"2137763179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":600,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325096595,"gmtCreate":1615848973017,"gmtModify":1703493852621,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow great! help to comment please","listText":"wow great! help to comment please","text":"wow great! help to comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325096595","repostId":"1170973847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":285,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152326836,"gmtCreate":1625271717825,"gmtModify":1631891096534,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"when moon?","listText":"when moon?","text":"when moon?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d749e7b6d9ca99793148aba7708e5956","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152326836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2235,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327756166,"gmtCreate":1616129137955,"gmtModify":1634527083581,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327756166","repostId":"1138262460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138262460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616124732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138262460?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks<blockquote>价值股如此受青睐，已成为动量股</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138262460","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As investors continue to rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the mark","content":"<p>As investors continue to&nbsp;rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes well for investors, said analysts at Alliance Bernstein in a research note out Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Alliance Bernstein分析师在周三发布的一份研究报告中表示，随着投资者继续将投资转向价值行业，市场该角落的股票开始呈现动量因素的特征，这是一种不寻常的组合，对投资者来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>“This is the holy grail of quant and Value investing!” the Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“这是量化和价值投资的圣杯！”伯恩斯坦分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p>Many investing models, they note, have been “built to overweight stocks where there is agreement between Value and Momentum – i.e. to overweight stocks which are cheap but which also have earnings momentum and/or price momentum. It was a very successful combination.”</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，许多投资模型都是“针对价值和动量之间存在一致性的跑赢大盘股票构建的，即针对价格便宜但也具有盈利动量和/或价格动量的跑赢大盘股票。这是一个非常成功的组合。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are currently in the midst of a rotation into stocks seen as offering value in terms of earnings or sales growth as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic rotation and are paring exposure to stocks that rose sharply as they benefited from the work-from-home trend in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济从冠状病毒大流行轮动中复苏，投资者目前正在转向被视为在盈利或销售增长方面提供价值的股票，并正在削减因受益于在家工作而大幅上涨的股票的投资。过去一年的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>“It is being driven by the re-opening trade, and improving macro outlook, and is directly linked to continuously increasing nominal yields, a steepening yield curve and increasing inflation expectations. We are tactically long Value and think there is further to go,” the Alliance Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“这是由贸易重新开放和宏观前景改善推动的，并与名义收益率持续上升、收益率曲线陡峭和通胀预期上升直接相关。我们在战术上做多价值，并认为还有更长的路要走，”伯恩斯坦联盟分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p>Sectors that are benefitting now – that is, screening as both value and momentum – include autos, banks, energy, and materials. &nbsp;The energy, materials and financials sectors, as well as consumer discretionary, are the sectors with the largest increases in earnings estimates over the past six months. Share price performance is being driven by these earnings upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>现在受益的行业——即价值和动力的筛选——包括汽车、银行、能源和材料。能源、材料和金融以及非必需消费品是过去六个月盈利预期增幅最大的行业。这些盈利上调推动了股价表现。</blockquote></p><p>Specific stocks which fit the criteria as screening for both value and momentum — meaning they’re in the cheapest quintile for both Price to Book and 12-month Price Momentum — include Ford Motor Co.,PulteGroup,Baker Hughes Co.,Dupont de Nemours,and a host of financials, including KeyCorp,Fifth Third Bancorp,Regions Financial&nbsp;and Ally Financial Inc.</p><p><blockquote>符合价值和动量筛选标准的特定股票（这意味着它们在账面价和12个月价格动量方面都处于最便宜的五分之一）包括福特汽车公司、PulteGroup、贝克休斯公司、杜邦公司de Nemours以及许多金融股，包括KeyCorp、Fifth Third Bancorp、Regions Financial和Ally Financial Inc.。</blockquote></p><p>The Bernstein analysts note that the backdrop for this value rotation “is very different to any period in history. We are in a very different policy environment and possibly are at the start of a much bigger change in the inflation regime.”</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦分析师指出，这种价值轮换的背景“与历史上任何时期都非常不同。我们正处于一个非常不同的政策环境中，并且可能正处于通胀制度更大变化的开始。”</blockquote></p><p>Still, it’s worth drawing comparisons and distinctions between earlier value rotations, they add. The current one is the largest since 2009, which served as a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>他们补充说，尽管如此，还是值得对早期的价值轮换进行比较和区分。目前的规模是自2009年以来最大的一次，2009年是从2008年金融危机中反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks<blockquote>价值股如此受青睐，已成为动量股</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks<blockquote>价值股如此受青睐，已成为动量股</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-19 11:32</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>As investors continue to&nbsp;rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes well for investors, said analysts at Alliance Bernstein in a research note out Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote>Alliance Bernstein分析师在周三发布的一份研究报告中表示，随着投资者继续将投资转向价值行业，市场该角落的股票开始呈现动量因素的特征，这是一种不寻常的组合，对投资者来说是个好兆头。</blockquote></p><p>“This is the holy grail of quant and Value investing!” the Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“这是量化和价值投资的圣杯！”伯恩斯坦分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p>Many investing models, they note, have been “built to overweight stocks where there is agreement between Value and Momentum – i.e. to overweight stocks which are cheap but which also have earnings momentum and/or price momentum. It was a very successful combination.”</p><p><blockquote>他们指出，许多投资模型都是“针对价值和动量之间存在一致性的跑赢大盘股票构建的，即针对价格便宜但也具有盈利动量和/或价格动量的跑赢大盘股票。这是一个非常成功的组合。”</blockquote></p><p>Investors are currently in the midst of a rotation into stocks seen as offering value in terms of earnings or sales growth as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic rotation and are paring exposure to stocks that rose sharply as they benefited from the work-from-home trend in the past year.</p><p><blockquote>随着经济从冠状病毒大流行轮动中复苏，投资者目前正在转向被视为在盈利或销售增长方面提供价值的股票，并正在削减因受益于在家工作而大幅上涨的股票的投资。过去一年的趋势。</blockquote></p><p>“It is being driven by the re-opening trade, and improving macro outlook, and is directly linked to continuously increasing nominal yields, a steepening yield curve and increasing inflation expectations. We are tactically long Value and think there is further to go,” the Alliance Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“这是由贸易重新开放和宏观前景改善推动的，并与名义收益率持续上升、收益率曲线陡峭和通胀预期上升直接相关。我们在战术上做多价值，并认为还有更长的路要走，”伯恩斯坦联盟分析师写道。</blockquote></p><p>Sectors that are benefitting now – that is, screening as both value and momentum – include autos, banks, energy, and materials. &nbsp;The energy, materials and financials sectors, as well as consumer discretionary, are the sectors with the largest increases in earnings estimates over the past six months. Share price performance is being driven by these earnings upgrades.</p><p><blockquote>现在受益的行业——即价值和动力的筛选——包括汽车、银行、能源和材料。能源、材料和金融以及非必需消费品是过去六个月盈利预期增幅最大的行业。这些盈利上调推动了股价表现。</blockquote></p><p>Specific stocks which fit the criteria as screening for both value and momentum — meaning they’re in the cheapest quintile for both Price to Book and 12-month Price Momentum — include Ford Motor Co.,PulteGroup,Baker Hughes Co.,Dupont de Nemours,and a host of financials, including KeyCorp,Fifth Third Bancorp,Regions Financial&nbsp;and Ally Financial Inc.</p><p><blockquote>符合价值和动量筛选标准的特定股票（这意味着它们在账面价和12个月价格动量方面都处于最便宜的五分之一）包括福特汽车公司、PulteGroup、贝克休斯公司、杜邦公司de Nemours以及许多金融股，包括KeyCorp、Fifth Third Bancorp、Regions Financial和Ally Financial Inc.。</blockquote></p><p>The Bernstein analysts note that the backdrop for this value rotation “is very different to any period in history. We are in a very different policy environment and possibly are at the start of a much bigger change in the inflation regime.”</p><p><blockquote>伯恩斯坦分析师指出，这种价值轮换的背景“与历史上任何时期都非常不同。我们正处于一个非常不同的政策环境中，并且可能正处于通胀制度更大变化的开始。”</blockquote></p><p>Still, it’s worth drawing comparisons and distinctions between earlier value rotations, they add. The current one is the largest since 2009, which served as a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.</p><p><blockquote>他们补充说，尽管如此，还是值得对早期的价值轮换进行比较和区分。目前的规模是自2009年以来最大的一次，2009年是从2008年金融危机中反弹。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1138262460","content_text":"As investors continue to rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes well for investors, said analysts at Alliance Bernstein in a research note out Wednesday.“This is the holy grail of quant and Value investing!” the Bernstein analysts wrote.Many investing models, they note, have been “built to overweight stocks where there is agreement between Value and Momentum – i.e. to overweight stocks which are cheap but which also have earnings momentum and/or price momentum. It was a very successful combination.”Investors are currently in the midst of a rotation into stocks seen as offering value in terms of earnings or sales growth as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic rotation and are paring exposure to stocks that rose sharply as they benefited from the work-from-home trend in the past year.“It is being driven by the re-opening trade, and improving macro outlook, and is directly linked to continuously increasing nominal yields, a steepening yield curve and increasing inflation expectations. We are tactically long Value and think there is further to go,” the Alliance Bernstein analysts wrote.Sectors that are benefitting now – that is, screening as both value and momentum – include autos, banks, energy, and materials.  The energy, materials and financials sectors, as well as consumer discretionary, are the sectors with the largest increases in earnings estimates over the past six months. Share price performance is being driven by these earnings upgrades.Specific stocks which fit the criteria as screening for both value and momentum — meaning they’re in the cheapest quintile for both Price to Book and 12-month Price Momentum — include Ford Motor Co.,PulteGroup,Baker Hughes Co.,Dupont de Nemours,and a host of financials, including KeyCorp,Fifth Third Bancorp,Regions Financial and Ally Financial Inc.The Bernstein analysts note that the backdrop for this value rotation “is very different to any period in history. We are in a very different policy environment and possibly are at the start of a much bigger change in the inflation regime.”Still, it’s worth drawing comparisons and distinctions between earlier value rotations, they add. The current one is the largest since 2009, which served as a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":324,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115526426,"gmtCreate":1623023871865,"gmtModify":1631892306160,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow, interesting","listText":"wow, interesting","text":"wow, interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115526426","repostId":"1163396528","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120896737,"gmtCreate":1624318096929,"gmtModify":1631891096568,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting news","listText":"interesting news","text":"interesting news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120896737","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163560883,"gmtCreate":1623889108842,"gmtModify":1631891096633,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh my!&nbsp;","listText":"oh my!&nbsp;","text":"oh my!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163560883","repostId":"1191044253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1737,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117098940,"gmtCreate":1623109155480,"gmtModify":1631892306156,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"patiently waiting...","listText":"patiently waiting...","text":"patiently waiting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117098940","repostId":"2141342255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":623,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324545677,"gmtCreate":1616020568199,"gmtModify":1703496376541,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting","listText":"interesting","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324545677","repostId":"1139863038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139863038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615985802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139863038?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139863038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra","content":"<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?<blockquote>什么利率会引发下一场危机？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-03-17 20:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>十年期美国国债收益率为1.61%。</li><li>10年期优质公司债收益率2.09%。</li><li>30年期抵押贷款利率为3.05%。</li></ul>尽管最近有所上升，但利率仍徘徊在历史低点附近。我们不会轻易使用“历史性”这个词。我们所说的“历史性”是指自1776年美国诞生以来的最低水平。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><blockquote>下图由视觉资本家提供，强调了我们的观点。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p><blockquote>尽管利率处于300年来的低点，但投资者正变得焦虑，因为利率正在上升。最近的历史表明他们应该担心。对过去40年的回顾表明，利率突然飙升和金融问题是齐头并进的。</blockquote></p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><blockquote>所有投资者面临的问题是，在谚语再次击中风扇之前，峰值会有多大？</blockquote></p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>债务驱动型经济</b></blockquote></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>在过去的40年里，债务越来越多地推动了经济增长。</blockquote></p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p><blockquote>这种说法本身并没有告诉我们任何关于经济健康状况的信息。为了更好地量化债务的好处或后果，我们需要了解它是如何被使用的。</blockquote></p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p><blockquote>当债务得到有效利用时，利息和本金就会被更高的利润和持续的经济活动所覆盖。更好的是，超过债务成本的收入使国家更加繁荣。</blockquote></p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p><blockquote>相反，非生产性债务可能会为经济活动提供一次性火花，但它几乎不会产生甚至没有剩余收入来为未来服务。最终，它会造成经济阻力，因为未来的偿债取代了生产性投资和/或消费。</blockquote></p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><blockquote>下图显示了未偿债务总额与GDP的比率稳步上升。如果债务总体上是生产性的，那么无论债务金额多少，该比率都会下降。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济脆弱性</b></blockquote></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p><blockquote>如上所示，美国经济过度依赖非生产性债务。毫不奇怪，三十年来，长期增长率一直呈下降趋势。去年增加的大量不良债务只会进一步降低未来的增长率。</blockquote></p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p><blockquote>美联储敏锐地意识到这一弱点，但拒绝承认问题或激励生产性债务。相反，他们以极低的利率吹捧更多债务的暂时经济效益。这样做，他们助长了投机和消费，而不是生产性债务。</blockquote></p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><blockquote>在Wicksell的优雅模型中，我们指出：<i>“另一方面，如果市场利率异常地保持在自然利率以下，那么资本配置决策就不是基于边际效率而是根据投资资本的平均回报率来做出的。这就解释了为什么在那些时期，股票和房地产等投机性资产会蓬勃发展。”</i></blockquote></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“但当短期市场利率低于自然利率时，聪明的投资者会做出适当的反应。他们以低利率大量借贷，购买回报可预测、期限较短的现有资产。金融资产价值飙升，而长期、现金流驱动、风险较高的投资则萎靡不振。”</i></blockquote></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><blockquote>简单地说，美联储的政策是让派对继续进行，而不用担心明天的宿醉。正如他们所展示的，狗的毛发——更多的债务——有助于明天的派对继续进行。不幸的是，这种鲁莽政策的代价是国家的财政脆弱性。</blockquote></p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>这种情况的证据非常明显。目前，投资者对利率上升感到担忧，尽管利率仅升至过去300年来的最低水平。</b></blockquote></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p><blockquote><b>测量脆性</b></blockquote></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><blockquote>回顾过去的40年，揭示了一个令人不安的问题。每当利率达到下降趋势的上限时，就会发生某种金融危机。下图显示了利率和GDP的稳步下降，以及利率暂时上升时发生的各种危机。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p><blockquote><b>鉴于利率急剧上升时经常发生危机，我们应该考虑在下一次危机之前利率可以上升到多高</b>请注意，随着时间的推移，产生问题的速率增加越来越少。如前所述，原因是债务的增长超过了偿还能力。</blockquote></p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p><blockquote>为了量化利率还能上升多少，我们展示了下图。图表中的红色阴影区域是所有债务利息支出变化的代理计算。我们使用未偿债务、一年期利率变化和GDP来计算变化。我们将数据归一化到经济规模。</blockquote></p><p></p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><blockquote>目前代理利息支出的一年变化比一年前增长了3.50%。如图所示，最近两次重大危机（2000年和2008年）以及一些小危机都发生在代理指数上涨3%到4%的时候。</blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST收益率到5月份升至2.0%（目前为1.60%），该指标将升至5.25%，远高于互联网和房地产泡沫破裂时的4.0%。</blockquote></p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p><blockquote>代理利息支出模型远非完美，但它提供了承受更高利率的痛苦阈值很小的证据。</blockquote></p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p><blockquote>如果10年期UST利率到4月份升至1.75%，代理利息支出将超过1990年以来的所有峰值水平。然而，这一次，大规模的财政刺激、货币操作和经济重新开放可能会暂时掩盖利率的上升，使其进一步上升。</blockquote></p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><blockquote>就像其他时候利率上升“太多”一样，如果利率继续上升，就会发生危机。似乎唯一的问题是美联储何时会像往常一样出手救援。</blockquote></p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>系好安全带，数学表明危机可能比任何人想象的都要近。</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139863038","content_text":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows.  We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?Debt-Driven EconomyOver the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.U.S. Economic FragilityAs shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.In Wicksell’s Elegant Model we stated: “On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.Measuring FragilityLooking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.SummaryThe proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.  However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164278971,"gmtCreate":1624222119893,"gmtModify":1631891096580,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmmm....","listText":"hmmmm....","text":"hmmmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164278971","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1809,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160908412,"gmtCreate":1623768104036,"gmtModify":1631892306152,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160908412","repostId":"1100476757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":441,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102960981,"gmtCreate":1620173768043,"gmtModify":1634207293018,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so sad","listText":"so sad","text":"so sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102960981","repostId":"1199199416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103932692,"gmtCreate":1619742340816,"gmtModify":1634210296319,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3576144712207106","idStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fantastic news","listText":"fantastic news","text":"fantastic news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103932692","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":199,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}