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ahdog

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2021-07-03

when moon?

2021-06-24

forget this forget that

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2021-06-23

good news!!!

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2021-06-22

interesting news

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2021-06-21

hmmmm....

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2021-06-18

not this again

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2021-06-18

Lets get back into green!

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2021-06-17

forget AMC? 🤔

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2021-06-17

oh my!

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2021-06-16

interesting news

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2021-06-16

hmmmm 🤔🤔🤔

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2021-06-15

wowwww

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2021-06-15

wow interesting

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2021-06-15

wow interesting

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets

2021-06-15

wow interesting

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2021-06-11

sad news

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2021-06-08

patiently waiting...

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2021-06-07

wow, interesting

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2021-06-04

what a sad day for tech

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2021-05-25

Fantastic!

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this again","listText":"not this again","text":"not this again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/162020673","repostId":"2144775875","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168882462,"gmtCreate":1623971540856,"gmtModify":1631891096606,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets get back into green!","listText":"Lets get back into green!","text":"Lets get back into green!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168882462","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":161468570,"gmtCreate":1623938503590,"gmtModify":1631891096620,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"forget AMC? 🤔","listText":"forget AMC? 🤔","text":"forget AMC? 🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/161468570","repostId":"2144056746","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1702,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163560883,"gmtCreate":1623889108842,"gmtModify":1631891096633,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh my!&nbsp;","listText":"oh my!&nbsp;","text":"oh my!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163560883","repostId":"1191044253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163070838,"gmtCreate":1623854694024,"gmtModify":1631891096637,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting news","listText":"interesting news","text":"interesting 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🤔🤔🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160645872","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":626,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160933804,"gmtCreate":1623768606208,"gmtModify":1631892306144,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wowwww","listText":"wowwww","text":"wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160933804","repostId":"1101819642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160990758,"gmtCreate":1623768264874,"gmtModify":1631892306147,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160990758","repostId":"1187102856","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160990157,"gmtCreate":1623768253179,"gmtModify":1631892306149,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160990157","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p>\n<p>So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p>\n<p>As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n<p>Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-15 21:02 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the 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tech","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/118765630","repostId":"1182667134","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":379,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":131746032,"gmtCreate":1621899103826,"gmtModify":1631892306165,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Fantastic!","listText":"Fantastic!","text":"Fantastic!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/131746032","repostId":"2138159407","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":181927611,"gmtCreate":1623371439033,"gmtModify":1631892306155,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"sad 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this forget that","listText":"forget this forget that","text":"forget this forget that","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/121418436","repostId":"2145531099","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1732,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":123061100,"gmtCreate":1624403899900,"gmtModify":1631891096559,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"good news!!!","listText":"good news!!!","text":"good news!!!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/123061100","repostId":"2145664330","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1853,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":168882462,"gmtCreate":1623971540856,"gmtModify":1631891096606,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Lets get back into green!","listText":"Lets get back into green!","text":"Lets get back into green!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/168882462","repostId":"2144286417","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1465,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":101253402,"gmtCreate":1619918332806,"gmtModify":1634209160410,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting!","listText":"interesting!","text":"interesting!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/101253402","repostId":"1152594140","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":443,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":358240099,"gmtCreate":1616710278511,"gmtModify":1634524486704,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"awesome! like and comment please!","listText":"awesome! like and comment please!","text":"awesome! like and comment please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/358240099","repostId":"1182633612","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1182633612","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1616685155,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1182633612?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-25 23:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"“meme” stocks are flying again","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1182633612","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Some “meme” stocks are flying again in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up ","content":"<p>Some&nbsp;“meme” stocks are flying again&nbsp;in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express&nbsp;is&nbsp;up&nbsp;10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1302a53fc18c4f16064864cc99f90108\" tg-width=\"369\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>“meme” stocks are flying again</title>\n<style 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margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n“meme” stocks are flying again\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2021-03-25 23:12</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Some&nbsp;“meme” stocks are flying again&nbsp;in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express&nbsp;is&nbsp;up&nbsp;10%.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1302a53fc18c4f16064864cc99f90108\" tg-width=\"369\" tg-height=\"296\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GME":"游戏驿站","KOSS":"高斯电子","AMC":"AMC院线"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1182633612","content_text":"Some “meme” stocks are flying again in Thursday trading.The shares of Koss is up 48%,GameStop is up 28%,AMC Entertainment is up 17%,Express is up 10%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AMC":0.9,"GME":0.9,"KOSS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":130287526,"gmtCreate":1621552942065,"gmtModify":1634188258337,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fantastic news!","listText":"fantastic news!","text":"fantastic news!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/130287526","repostId":"2137763179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":325096595,"gmtCreate":1615848973017,"gmtModify":1703493852621,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow great! help to comment please","listText":"wow great! help to comment please","text":"wow great! help to comment please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/325096595","repostId":"1170973847","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":275,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":152326836,"gmtCreate":1625271717825,"gmtModify":1631891096534,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"when moon?","listText":"when moon?","text":"when moon?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d749e7b6d9ca99793148aba7708e5956","width":"1080","height":"3528"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/152326836","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1813,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":327756166,"gmtCreate":1616129137955,"gmtModify":1634527083581,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Interesting","listText":"Interesting","text":"Interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/327756166","repostId":"1138262460","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138262460","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1616124732,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138262460?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-19 11:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138262460","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"As investors continue to rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the mark","content":"<p>As investors continue to&nbsp;rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes well for investors, said analysts at Alliance Bernstein in a research note out Wednesday.</p><p>“This is the holy grail of quant and Value investing!” the Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p>Many investing models, they note, have been “built to overweight stocks where there is agreement between Value and Momentum – i.e. to overweight stocks which are cheap but which also have earnings momentum and/or price momentum. It was a very successful combination.”</p><p>Investors are currently in the midst of a rotation into stocks seen as offering value in terms of earnings or sales growth as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic rotation and are paring exposure to stocks that rose sharply as they benefited from the work-from-home trend in the past year.</p><p>“It is being driven by the re-opening trade, and improving macro outlook, and is directly linked to continuously increasing nominal yields, a steepening yield curve and increasing inflation expectations. We are tactically long Value and think there is further to go,” the Alliance Bernstein analysts wrote.</p><p>Sectors that are benefitting now – that is, screening as both value and momentum – include autos, banks, energy, and materials. &nbsp;The energy, materials and financials sectors, as well as consumer discretionary, are the sectors with the largest increases in earnings estimates over the past six months. Share price performance is being driven by these earnings upgrades.</p><p>Specific stocks which fit the criteria as screening for both value and momentum — meaning they’re in the cheapest quintile for both Price to Book and 12-month Price Momentum — include Ford Motor Co.,PulteGroup,Baker Hughes Co.,Dupont de Nemours,and a host of financials, including KeyCorp,Fifth Third Bancorp,Regions Financial&nbsp;and Ally Financial Inc.</p><p>The Bernstein analysts note that the backdrop for this value rotation “is very different to any period in history. We are in a very different policy environment and possibly are at the start of a much bigger change in the inflation regime.”</p><p>Still, it’s worth drawing comparisons and distinctions between earlier value rotations, they add. The current one is the largest since 2009, which served as a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.</p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Value stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nValue stocks are so in favor they’ve become momentum stocks\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-19 11:32 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page><strong>MarketWatch</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>As investors continue to rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/value-stocks-are-so-in-favor-theyve-become-momentum-stocks-11616084864?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1138262460","content_text":"As investors continue to rotate their exposure into value sectors, stocks in that corner of the market starting to take on characteristics of the momentum factor, an uncommon combination that bodes well for investors, said analysts at Alliance Bernstein in a research note out Wednesday.“This is the holy grail of quant and Value investing!” the Bernstein analysts wrote.Many investing models, they note, have been “built to overweight stocks where there is agreement between Value and Momentum – i.e. to overweight stocks which are cheap but which also have earnings momentum and/or price momentum. It was a very successful combination.”Investors are currently in the midst of a rotation into stocks seen as offering value in terms of earnings or sales growth as the economy recovers from the coronavirus pandemic rotation and are paring exposure to stocks that rose sharply as they benefited from the work-from-home trend in the past year.“It is being driven by the re-opening trade, and improving macro outlook, and is directly linked to continuously increasing nominal yields, a steepening yield curve and increasing inflation expectations. We are tactically long Value and think there is further to go,” the Alliance Bernstein analysts wrote.Sectors that are benefitting now – that is, screening as both value and momentum – include autos, banks, energy, and materials.  The energy, materials and financials sectors, as well as consumer discretionary, are the sectors with the largest increases in earnings estimates over the past six months. Share price performance is being driven by these earnings upgrades.Specific stocks which fit the criteria as screening for both value and momentum — meaning they’re in the cheapest quintile for both Price to Book and 12-month Price Momentum — include Ford Motor Co.,PulteGroup,Baker Hughes Co.,Dupont de Nemours,and a host of financials, including KeyCorp,Fifth Third Bancorp,Regions Financial and Ally Financial Inc.The Bernstein analysts note that the backdrop for this value rotation “is very different to any period in history. We are in a very different policy environment and possibly are at the start of a much bigger change in the inflation regime.”Still, it’s worth drawing comparisons and distinctions between earlier value rotations, they add. The current one is the largest since 2009, which served as a rebound from the 2008 financial crisis.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":210,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":115526426,"gmtCreate":1623023871865,"gmtModify":1631892306160,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow, interesting","listText":"wow, interesting","text":"wow, interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/115526426","repostId":"1163396528","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120896737,"gmtCreate":1624318096929,"gmtModify":1631891096568,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting news","listText":"interesting news","text":"interesting news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120896737","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1591,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163560883,"gmtCreate":1623889108842,"gmtModify":1631891096633,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"oh my!&nbsp;","listText":"oh my!&nbsp;","text":"oh my!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163560883","repostId":"1191044253","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117098940,"gmtCreate":1623109155480,"gmtModify":1631892306156,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"patiently waiting...","listText":"patiently waiting...","text":"patiently waiting...","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117098940","repostId":"2141342255","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":324545677,"gmtCreate":1616020568199,"gmtModify":1703496376541,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"interesting","listText":"interesting","text":"interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/324545677","repostId":"1139863038","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1139863038","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1615985802,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1139863038?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-03-17 20:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1139863038","media":"zerohedge","summary":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The ra","content":"<ul><li>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.</li><li>10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.</li><li>The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.</li></ul><p>Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows. &nbsp;We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.</p><p>The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0a42c6bf59aeb11becd8e9ebc5ebcbdc\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"510\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.</p><p>The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?</p><p><b>Debt-Driven Economy</b></p><p>Over the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.</p><p>That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.</p><p>When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.</p><p>Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.</p><p>The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/94098681db0a5b7f7f636d502f8bb5b1\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"262\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>U.S. Economic Fragility</b></p><p>As shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.</p><p>The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.</p><p>In&nbsp;Wicksell’s Elegant Model&nbsp;we stated:&nbsp;<i>“On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”</i></p><p><i>“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”</i></p><p>Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.</p><p><b>Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.</b></p><p><b>Measuring Fragility</b></p><p>Looking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2f3e6cab01875fa2adb0d0b76e8921c2\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><b>Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis</b>. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.</p><p>To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.</p><p>The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/89a7414aad88e5ed6269e7910d64ee0c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"320\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p>If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.</p><p><b>Summary</b></p><p>The proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.</p><p>If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.&nbsp; However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.</p><p>Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.</p><p><b>Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.</b></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Interest Rate Triggers The Next Crisis?\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-03-17 20:56 GMT+8&nbsp;&nbsp;&nbsp;<a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/what-interest-rate-triggers-next-crisis?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1139863038","content_text":"The Ten-year U.S. Treasury note yields 1.61%.10-year high-quality corporate bonds yield 2.09%.The rate on a 30-year mortgage is 3.05%.Despite recent increases, interest rates are hovering near historic lows.  We do not use the word “historic” lightly. By “historic,” we refer to the lowest levels since the nation’s birth in 1776.The graph below, courtesy of the Visual Capitalist, highlights our point.Despite 300-year lows in interest rates, investors are becoming anxious because they are rising. Recent history shows they should worry. A review of the past 40 years reveals sudden spikes in interest rates and financial problems go hand in hand.The question for all investors is how big a spike before the proverbial hits the fan again?Debt-Driven EconomyOver the past 40 years, debt has increasingly driven economic growth.That statement on its own tells us nothing about the health of the economy. To better quantify the benefits or consequences of debt, we need to understand how it was used.When debt is used productively, the interest and principal are covered with higher profits and sustained economic activity. Even better, income beyond the cost of the debt makes the nation more prosperous.Conversely, unproductive debt may provide a one-time spark of economic activity, but it yields little to no residual income to service it going forward. Ultimately it creates an economic headwind as servicing the debt in the future replaces productive investment and or consumption.The graph below shows the steadily rising ratio of total outstanding debt to GDP. If debt, in aggregate, were productive, the ratio would be declining regardless of the amount of debt.U.S. Economic FragilityAs shown above, the U.S. economy is overly dependent on unproductive debt. Not surprisingly, secular growth rates have been trending lower for three decades. The massive amount of unproductive debt added in the last year will only further reduce future growth rates.The Fed is keenly aware of this weakness but refuses to acknowledge the problem or incentivize productive debt. Instead, they tout the temporary economic benefits of more debt with exceedingly low interest rates. In doing so, they egg on speculation and consumption, not productive debt.In Wicksell’s Elegant Model we stated: “On the other hand, if market rates of interest are held abnormally below the natural rate, then capital allocation decisions are not made on the basis of marginal efficiency but according to the average return on invested capital. This explains why, in those periods, more speculative assets such as stocks and real estate boom.”“But when short-term market rates are below the natural rate, intelligent investors respond appropriately. They borrow heavily at the low rate and buy existing assets with somewhat predictable returns and shorter time horizons. Financial assets skyrocket in value while long-term, cash-flow driven investments with riskier prospects languish.”Simply, the Fed’s policy is to keep the party going without worrying about tomorrow’s hangover. As they have shown, the hair of the dog – more debt, helps keep the party going tomorrow. Unfortunately, the cost of such reckless policy is the nation’s financial fragility.Evidence of this condition is quite apparent. Currently, investors are fretting about higher interest rates despite the fact they have only risen to the lowest levels of the past 300 years.Measuring FragilityLooking back over the last 40 years reveals a troubling problem. Every time interest rates reach the upper end of its downward trend, a financial crisis of sorts occurred. The graph below charts the steady decline in rates and GDP along with the various crisis occurring when rates temporarily rose.Given crises frequently occur when rates rise sharply, we should contemplate how high rates can rise before the next crisis. Notice, as time goes on it takes less and less of a rate increase to generate a problem. The reason, as highlighted earlier, is the growth of debt outpaces the ability to pay for it.To quantify how much more rates can rise, we present the graph below. The red shaded area in the chart is a proxy calculation for the change in the interest expense on all debt. We calculate the change using debt outstanding, one-year change in interest rates, and GDP. We normalize the data to the size of the economy.The current one-year change in the proxy interest expense is up 3.50% from a year ago. As shown, the last two significant crises (2000 and 2008), along with a few minor ones, all happened when the proxy rose between three and four percent.If Ten-year UST yields increase to 2.0% (currently 1.60%) by May, the proxy will increase to 5.25%, well above the 4.0% that popped the dot com and housing bubbles.SummaryThe proxy interest expense model is far from perfect, but it provides evidence the threshold of pain to withstand higher rates is small.If the Ten-year UST rate increases to 1.75% by April, the proxy interest expense will exceed all peak levels since 1990.  However, this time, massive fiscal stimulus, monetary operations, and economic reopening may mask the rise in rates for a little while, allowing them to rise further.Like every other time rates rose “too much,” a crisis will occur if rates keep increasing. It seems the only question is when the Fed will come running to the rescue as they always do.Buckle up, the math says a crisis may be closer than anyone imagines.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164278971,"gmtCreate":1624222119893,"gmtModify":1631891096580,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"hmmmm....","listText":"hmmmm....","text":"hmmmm....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164278971","repostId":"1183124175","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1636,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160908412,"gmtCreate":1623768104036,"gmtModify":1631892306152,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow interesting","listText":"wow interesting","text":"wow interesting","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160908412","repostId":"1100476757","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":401,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":102960981,"gmtCreate":1620173768043,"gmtModify":1634207293018,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"so sad","listText":"so sad","text":"so sad","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/102960981","repostId":"1199199416","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":364,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":103932692,"gmtCreate":1619742340816,"gmtModify":1634210296319,"author":{"id":"3576144712207106","authorId":"3576144712207106","name":"ahdog","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3576144712207106","authorIdStr":"3576144712207106"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"fantastic news","listText":"fantastic news","text":"fantastic news","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/103932692","repostId":"2131534297","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":195,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}