KRIS0330的个人主页 - 老虎社区

KRIS0330

KRIS0330

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IP属地：海外

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0勋章

2022-01-16

[Miser]

2021-12-03

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fastly-present-raymond-james-technology-210500511.htmlIs this going to move #FSLY price up?Do give comments

2021-09-28

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$ should I cut lost?

2021-09-24

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[喷血]

2021-09-24

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[流泪]

2021-09-24

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[流泪]

2021-09-19

$Huya Inc.(HUYA)$[呆住]

2021-09-12

[喷血]

2021-09-11

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[流泪]

2021-09-11

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$sad

2021-09-09

Gd buy now???

2021-08-31

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[流泪]

2021-08-31

[流泪]

2021-08-29

[流泪]

2021-08-27

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[喷血]

2021-08-27

[捂脸]

2021-08-27

[喷血]

2021-08-26

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$[流泪]

2021-08-24

Dropping

2021-08-24

$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$drop again

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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805008423","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":375,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804589901,"gmtCreate":1627964153603,"gmtModify":1631886376609,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;Pls fly ✈️","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/OAJ.SI\">$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$</a>&nbsp;Pls fly ✈️","text":"$FORTRESS MINERALS LIMITED(OAJ.SI)$ Pls fly 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comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806608143","repostId":"2155553961","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":893052599,"gmtCreate":1628223610711,"gmtModify":1631889022375,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C9Q.SI\">$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$</a>&nbsp;small achieve&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;. Pls comment n like.&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C9Q.SI\">$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$</a>&nbsp;small achieve&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;. Pls comment n like.&nbsp;","text":"$SINOSTAR PEC HOLDINGS LIMITED(C9Q.SI)$ small achieve [微笑] . Pls comment n like.","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b248bab66f202606f99a44fd9f2394df","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/893052599","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":728,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807492184,"gmtCreate":1628047997348,"gmtModify":1633754048624,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Better to have buffer on defensive then not have any protection right? Pls liken comment&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","listText":"Better to have buffer on defensive then not have any protection right? Pls liken comment&nbsp;[微笑]&nbsp;","text":"Better to have buffer on defensive then not have any protection right? Pls liken comment [微笑]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807492184","repostId":"1180553743","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1180553743","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1628047202,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1180553743?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-04 11:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Defensive Stocks Might not Protect You Against a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>为什么防御性股票可能无法保护您免受股市崩盘的影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1180553743","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"Markets were mixed on Tuesday, but one notable stalwart took a big hit to its share price.\nKey Point","content":"<p><i><b>Markets were mixed on Tuesday, but one notable stalwart took a big hit to its share price.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>周二市场涨跌互现，但一家著名的中坚力量对其股价造成了沉重打击。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning.</li>  <li>One stock in a traditionally defensive area of the market saw a big decline following earnings.</li>  <li>Heightened valuations can make even defensive stocks risky.</li> </ul> Investors have been on edge lately, and it showed in Tuesday morning's stock market action. Wall Street clawed back some of its early losses, but major indexes remained mixed as market participants tried to balance worries about the pandemic against signs of continuing economic growth. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT today, the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)&nbsp;was up 58 points to 34,897. However, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;had eased lower by 3 points to 4,384, and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">NASDAQ</a> fell 89 points to 14,592.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周二上午股市涨跌互现。</li><li>市场传统防御性区域的一只股票在财报公布后大幅下跌。</li><li>估值升高甚至会使防御性股票面临风险。</li></ul>投资者最近一直很紧张，周二上午的股市走势就证明了这一点。华尔街收复了部分早期跌幅，但主要股指仍然涨跌互现，市场参与者试图平衡对疫情的担忧与经济持续增长的迹象。截至美国东部时间今天上午 11:30，<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI) 上涨 58 点至 34,897 点。然而，<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）下降3点至4,384，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">纳斯达克</a>下跌89点至14,592点。</blockquote></p><p> In times of uncertainty, many investors turn to defensive stocks in areas like&nbsp;consumer staples. But with large numbers of shareholders all seeking the same protection against a stock market crash, valuations on defensive stocks can rise to a point at which they're just as vulnerable to disappointments as any other stock.</p><p><blockquote>在不确定时期，许多投资者转向必需消费品等领域的防御性股票。但随着大量股东都在寻求同样的保护来抵御股市崩盘，防御性股票的估值可能会上升到与任何其他股票一样容易受到失望的程度。</blockquote></p><p> That's what investors in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">Clorox</a> found out today, and it's a good warning for any investors who are overly reliant on the purportedly crash-proof reputation that defensive stocks have.</p><p><blockquote>这就是投资者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">高乐氏</a>今天发现了这一点，这对于任何过度依赖防御性股票所谓的防崩盘声誉的投资者来说都是一个很好的警告。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Clorox can't clean up</b></h3> Shares of Clorox were lower by more than 11% Tuesday morning. The maker of bleach and other household cleaning products wasn't able to reassure its investors that it will be able to&nbsp;sustain the massive growth&nbsp;it has enjoyed over the past year.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>高乐氏无法清理</b></h3>周二上午，高乐氏股价下跌超过 11%。这家漂白剂和其他家用清洁产品制造商无法向投资者保证，它将能够维持过去一年的大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc08be95827a03674b6a41470c365f9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Clorox's numbers for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended June 30, were downright ugly. Revenue fell 9% from year-ago levels, and adjusted earnings plunged 61% year over year to $0.95 per share. Organic sales dropped 10%.</p><p><blockquote>高乐氏截至 6 月 30 日的第四财季数据非常糟糕。收入较去年同期下降 9%，调整后收益同比暴跌 61%，至每股 0.95 美元。有机销售额下降了10%。</blockquote></p><p> Clorox saw pressure across its business. The health and wellness segment suffered a 17% sales decrease, while lifestyle product sales dropped 3%. The bright spot was a 5% rise in international revenue, although segment sales would have declined were it not for an acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>高乐氏看到了整个业务的压力。健康和保健部门的销售额下降了17%，而生活方式产品的销售额下降了3%。亮点是国际收入增长了 5%，尽管如果没有收购，部门销售额可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> The company blamed the downturn largely on decelerated demand for products compared to the&nbsp;worst parts of the pandemic. Clorox emphasized that when you go back two years to try to take out the pandemic's impact, sales were up 13% over the longer period. Nevertheless, higher commodity costs wiped out savings from company efficiency efforts, weighing on the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将经济下滑主要归咎于与疫情最严重时期相比产品需求放缓。高乐氏强调，当你回顾两年试图消除疫情的影响时，销售额在较长时期内增长了 13%。然而，较高的商品成本抹去了公司提高效率的节省，拖累了利润。</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, Clorox expects tough times to continue. It projected a 2% to 6% drop in revenue for fiscal 2022, with adjusted EPS of $5.40 to $5.70 for the full year representing a decrease of more than 20% from the just-ended 2021 fiscal year. Higher commodity costs are seen continuing, dealing a blow of about 3 to 4 percentage points to gross margin.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，高乐氏预计艰难时期将持续下去。该公司预计 2022 财年收入将下降 2% 至 6%，全年调整后每股收益为 5.40 美元至 5.70 美元，较刚刚结束的 2021 财年下降 20% 以上。大宗商品成本持续上涨，对毛利率造成约3至4个百分点的打击。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>The price of protection</b></h3> With today's drop, shares of Clorox are now down by nearly a third from their highest levels about a year ago. That's a massive decline, especially given that the broader market has actually performed quite well over the same period.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>保护的价格</b></h3>随着今天的下跌，高乐氏的股价现在比大约一年前的最高水平下跌了近三分之一。这是一个巨大的下降，特别是考虑到大盘实际上在同一时期表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Yet when you look at longer-term trends, you can see the heights to which defensive investors were willing to bid up Clorox's stock. In just eight months in late 2019 and early 2020, shares soared almost 60%, lifted largely on hopes that the stock would help provide protection from a bear market. To be fair, that strategy was successful in avoiding the downturn in stocks in February and March of 2020, but as it turned out, declines got pushed forward rather than being eliminated completely.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当你观察长期趋势时，你可以看到防御性投资者愿意买入高乐氏股票的高度。在 2019 年底和 2020 年初的短短八个月内，股价飙升近 60%，这主要得益于人们对该股将有助于抵御熊市的希望。公平地说，这一策略成功避免了 2020 年 2 月和 3 月的股市下跌，但事实证明，下跌被推迟，而不是完全消除。</blockquote></p><p> No stock is a sure thing, and even companies with reputations for being smart defensive plays aren't always effective. Clorox's losses today show that even stocks that appear safe can see big losses, and investors have to be prepared for whatever may come -- including a crash in which Clorox and other defensive stocks drop along with the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>没有股票是确定的，即使是以聪明防守而闻名的公司也不总是有效的。高乐氏今天的亏损表明，即使是看似安全的股票也可能出现巨大损失，投资者必须为可能发生的任何事情做好准备——包括高乐氏和其他防御性股票与整体市场一起下跌的崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Defensive Stocks Might not Protect You Against a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>为什么防御性股票可能无法保护您免受股市崩盘的影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Defensive Stocks Might not Protect You Against a Stock Market Crash<blockquote>为什么防御性股票可能无法保护您免受股市崩盘的影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-04 11:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>Markets were mixed on Tuesday, but one notable stalwart took a big hit to its share price.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>周二市场涨跌互现，但一家著名的中坚力量对其股价造成了沉重打击。</b></i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Key Points</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要点</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Stocks were mixed on Tuesday morning.</li>  <li>One stock in a traditionally defensive area of the market saw a big decline following earnings.</li>  <li>Heightened valuations can make even defensive stocks risky.</li> </ul> Investors have been on edge lately, and it showed in Tuesday morning's stock market action. Wall Street clawed back some of its early losses, but major indexes remained mixed as market participants tried to balance worries about the pandemic against signs of continuing economic growth. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT today, the&nbsp;<b>Dow Jones Industrial Average</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI)&nbsp;was up 58 points to 34,897. However, the&nbsp;<b>S&amp;P 500</b>(SNPINDEX:^GSPC)&nbsp;had eased lower by 3 points to 4,384, and the&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">NASDAQ</a> fell 89 points to 14,592.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>周二上午股市涨跌互现。</li><li>市场传统防御性区域的一只股票在财报公布后大幅下跌。</li><li>估值升高甚至会使防御性股票面临风险。</li></ul>投资者最近一直很紧张，周二上午的股市走势就证明了这一点。华尔街收复了部分早期跌幅，但主要股指仍然涨跌互现，市场参与者试图平衡对疫情的担忧与经济持续增长的迹象。截至美国东部时间今天上午 11:30，<b>道琼斯工业指数</b>(DJINDICES:^DJI) 上涨 58 点至 34,897 点。然而，<b>标普500</b>（SNPINDEX:^GSPC）下降3点至4,384，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/.IXIC\">纳斯达克</a>下跌89点至14,592点。</blockquote></p><p> In times of uncertainty, many investors turn to defensive stocks in areas like&nbsp;consumer staples. But with large numbers of shareholders all seeking the same protection against a stock market crash, valuations on defensive stocks can rise to a point at which they're just as vulnerable to disappointments as any other stock.</p><p><blockquote>在不确定时期，许多投资者转向必需消费品等领域的防御性股票。但随着大量股东都在寻求同样的保护来抵御股市崩盘，防御性股票的估值可能会上升到与任何其他股票一样容易受到失望的程度。</blockquote></p><p> That's what investors in&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">Clorox</a> found out today, and it's a good warning for any investors who are overly reliant on the purportedly crash-proof reputation that defensive stocks have.</p><p><blockquote>这就是投资者<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CLX\">高乐氏</a>今天发现了这一点，这对于任何过度依赖防御性股票所谓的防崩盘声誉的投资者来说都是一个很好的警告。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>Clorox can't clean up</b></h3> Shares of Clorox were lower by more than 11% Tuesday morning. The maker of bleach and other household cleaning products wasn't able to reassure its investors that it will be able to&nbsp;sustain the massive growth&nbsp;it has enjoyed over the past year.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>高乐氏无法清理</b></h3>周二上午，高乐氏股价下跌超过 11%。这家漂白剂和其他家用清洁产品制造商无法向投资者保证，它将能够维持过去一年的大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bc08be95827a03674b6a41470c365f9b\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"396\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\">IMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.</p><p><blockquote>图片来源：盖蒂图片社。</blockquote></p><p> Clorox's numbers for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended June 30, were downright ugly. Revenue fell 9% from year-ago levels, and adjusted earnings plunged 61% year over year to $0.95 per share. Organic sales dropped 10%.</p><p><blockquote>高乐氏截至 6 月 30 日的第四财季数据非常糟糕。收入较去年同期下降 9%，调整后收益同比暴跌 61%，至每股 0.95 美元。有机销售额下降了10%。</blockquote></p><p> Clorox saw pressure across its business. The health and wellness segment suffered a 17% sales decrease, while lifestyle product sales dropped 3%. The bright spot was a 5% rise in international revenue, although segment sales would have declined were it not for an acquisition.</p><p><blockquote>高乐氏看到了整个业务的压力。健康和保健部门的销售额下降了17%，而生活方式产品的销售额下降了3%。亮点是国际收入增长了 5%，尽管如果没有收购，部门销售额可能会下降。</blockquote></p><p> The company blamed the downturn largely on decelerated demand for products compared to the&nbsp;worst parts of the pandemic. Clorox emphasized that when you go back two years to try to take out the pandemic's impact, sales were up 13% over the longer period. Nevertheless, higher commodity costs wiped out savings from company efficiency efforts, weighing on the bottom line.</p><p><blockquote>该公司将经济下滑主要归咎于与疫情最严重时期相比产品需求放缓。高乐氏强调，当你回顾两年试图消除疫情的影响时，销售额在较长时期内增长了 13%。然而，较高的商品成本抹去了公司提高效率的节省，拖累了利润。</blockquote></p><p> Even worse, Clorox expects tough times to continue. It projected a 2% to 6% drop in revenue for fiscal 2022, with adjusted EPS of $5.40 to $5.70 for the full year representing a decrease of more than 20% from the just-ended 2021 fiscal year. Higher commodity costs are seen continuing, dealing a blow of about 3 to 4 percentage points to gross margin.</p><p><blockquote>更糟糕的是，高乐氏预计艰难时期将持续下去。该公司预计 2022 财年收入将下降 2% 至 6%，全年调整后每股收益为 5.40 美元至 5.70 美元，较刚刚结束的 2021 财年下降 20% 以上。大宗商品成本持续上涨，对毛利率造成约3至4个百分点的打击。</blockquote></p><p> <h3><b>The price of protection</b></h3> With today's drop, shares of Clorox are now down by nearly a third from their highest levels about a year ago. That's a massive decline, especially given that the broader market has actually performed quite well over the same period.</p><p><blockquote><h3><b>保护的价格</b></h3>随着今天的下跌，高乐氏的股价现在比大约一年前的最高水平下跌了近三分之一。这是一个巨大的下降，特别是考虑到大盘实际上在同一时期表现相当不错。</blockquote></p><p> Yet when you look at longer-term trends, you can see the heights to which defensive investors were willing to bid up Clorox's stock. In just eight months in late 2019 and early 2020, shares soared almost 60%, lifted largely on hopes that the stock would help provide protection from a bear market. To be fair, that strategy was successful in avoiding the downturn in stocks in February and March of 2020, but as it turned out, declines got pushed forward rather than being eliminated completely.</p><p><blockquote>然而，当你观察长期趋势时，你可以看到防御性投资者愿意买入高乐氏股票的高度。在 2019 年底和 2020 年初的短短八个月内，股价飙升近 60%，这主要得益于人们对该股将有助于抵御熊市的希望。公平地说，这一策略成功避免了 2020 年 2 月和 3 月的股市下跌，但事实证明，下跌被推迟，而不是完全消除。</blockquote></p><p> No stock is a sure thing, and even companies with reputations for being smart defensive plays aren't always effective. Clorox's losses today show that even stocks that appear safe can see big losses, and investors have to be prepared for whatever may come -- including a crash in which Clorox and other defensive stocks drop along with the overall market.</p><p><blockquote>没有股票是确定的，即使是以聪明防守而闻名的公司也不总是有效的。高乐氏今天的亏损表明，即使是看似安全的股票也可能出现巨大损失，投资者必须为可能发生的任何事情做好准备——包括高乐氏和其他防御性股票与整体市场一起下跌的崩盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/defensive-stocks-might-not-protect-market-crash/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","CLX":"高乐氏",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/03/defensive-stocks-might-not-protect-market-crash/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1180553743","content_text":"Markets were mixed on Tuesday, but one notable stalwart took a big hit to its share price.\nKey Points\n\nStocks were mixed on Tuesday morning.\nOne stock in a traditionally defensive area of the market saw a big decline following earnings.\nHeightened valuations can make even defensive stocks risky.\n\nInvestors have been on edge lately, and it showed in Tuesday morning's stock market action. Wall Street clawed back some of its early losses, but major indexes remained mixed as market participants tried to balance worries about the pandemic against signs of continuing economic growth. As of 11:30 a.m. EDT today, the Dow Jones Industrial Average(DJINDICES:^DJI) was up 58 points to 34,897. However, the S&P 500(SNPINDEX:^GSPC) had eased lower by 3 points to 4,384, and the NASDAQ fell 89 points to 14,592.\nIn times of uncertainty, many investors turn to defensive stocks in areas like consumer staples. But with large numbers of shareholders all seeking the same protection against a stock market crash, valuations on defensive stocks can rise to a point at which they're just as vulnerable to disappointments as any other stock.\nThat's what investors in Clorox found out today, and it's a good warning for any investors who are overly reliant on the purportedly crash-proof reputation that defensive stocks have.\nClorox can't clean up\nShares of Clorox were lower by more than 11% Tuesday morning. The maker of bleach and other household cleaning products wasn't able to reassure its investors that it will be able to sustain the massive growth it has enjoyed over the past year.\nIMAGE SOURCE: GETTY IMAGES.\nClorox's numbers for its fiscal fourth quarter, which ended June 30, were downright ugly. Revenue fell 9% from year-ago levels, and adjusted earnings plunged 61% year over year to $0.95 per share. Organic sales dropped 10%.\nClorox saw pressure across its business. The health and wellness segment suffered a 17% sales decrease, while lifestyle product sales dropped 3%. The bright spot was a 5% rise in international revenue, although segment sales would have declined were it not for an acquisition.\nThe company blamed the downturn largely on decelerated demand for products compared to the worst parts of the pandemic. Clorox emphasized that when you go back two years to try to take out the pandemic's impact, sales were up 13% over the longer period. Nevertheless, higher commodity costs wiped out savings from company efficiency efforts, weighing on the bottom line.\nEven worse, Clorox expects tough times to continue. It projected a 2% to 6% drop in revenue for fiscal 2022, with adjusted EPS of $5.40 to $5.70 for the full year representing a decrease of more than 20% from the just-ended 2021 fiscal year. Higher commodity costs are seen continuing, dealing a blow of about 3 to 4 percentage points to gross margin.\nThe price of protection\nWith today's drop, shares of Clorox are now down by nearly a third from their highest levels about a year ago. That's a massive decline, especially given that the broader market has actually performed quite well over the same period.\nYet when you look at longer-term trends, you can see the heights to which defensive investors were willing to bid up Clorox's stock. In just eight months in late 2019 and early 2020, shares soared almost 60%, lifted largely on hopes that the stock would help provide protection from a bear market. To be fair, that strategy was successful in avoiding the downturn in stocks in February and March of 2020, but as it turned out, declines got pushed forward rather than being eliminated completely.\nNo stock is a sure thing, and even companies with reputations for being smart defensive plays aren't always effective. Clorox's losses today show that even stocks that appear safe can see big losses, and investors have to be prepared for whatever may come -- including a crash in which Clorox and other defensive stocks drop along with the overall market.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"CLX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":744,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":176924289,"gmtCreate":1626856090841,"gmtModify":1631885045697,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Asml my fav stock[得意]&nbsp;go go go~","listText":"Asml my fav stock[得意]&nbsp;go go go~","text":"Asml my fav stock[得意] go go go~","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/176924289","repostId":"1179602567","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1227,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":807941802,"gmtCreate":1627998458806,"gmtModify":1631884235771,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"China stock going back hm?&nbsp;","listText":"China stock going back hm?&nbsp;","text":"China stock going back hm?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807941802","repostId":"1168499499","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":541,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804584837,"gmtCreate":1627964768829,"gmtModify":1633754797929,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice. Pls like n comment&nbsp;","listText":"Nice. Pls like n comment&nbsp;","text":"Nice. Pls like n comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804584837","repostId":"1122028715","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122028715","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627962245,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1122028715?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-03 11:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here's Why Square Stock Soared Today<blockquote>这就是 Square 股价今天飙升的原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122028715","media":"The Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of Square jumped 10% on Monday, after thefintechgiant struck a deal to acquire ","content":"<p><h2><b>What happened</b></h2> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a></b> jumped 10% on Monday, after thefintechgiant struck a deal to acquire Australian installment payments leader&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFTPF\">Afterpay Ltd.</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>发生了什么事</b></h2>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a></b>这家金融科技巨头达成协议收购澳大利亚分期付款领导者后，周一股价上涨 10%<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFTPF\">后付费有限公司</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>So what</b></h2> Afterpay is a leading provider of \"buy now, pay later\" services used by over 16 million consumers and nearly 100,000 merchants worldwide. The deal values Afterpay at about $29 billion, a roughly 30% premium to its closing price on Friday.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>那又怎样</b></h2>Afterpay是全球超过1600万消费者和近100,000家商家使用的“先买后付”服务提供商。该交易对 Afterpay 的估值约为 290 亿美元，比周五收盘价溢价约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2022, pending regulatory and shareholder approval.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将于 2022 年第一季度完成，等待监管部门和股东批准。</blockquote></p><p> \"Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,\" Square CEO Jack Dorsey said in a press release. \"We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.\"</p><p><blockquote>Square 首席执行官杰克·多西 (Jack Dorsey) 在一份新闻稿中表示：“Square 和 Afterpay 有着共同的目标。”“我们建立业务是为了让金融体系更加公平、便捷和包容，Afterpay 已经建立了一个符合这些原则的值得信赖的品牌。”</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Now what</b></h2> Square says Afterpay could help to tie its seller and Cash App businesses closer together. Square wants to roll out Afterpay's installment services to even its smallest merchant customers, while also giving Afterpay's consumers the option to make payments directly in Cash App.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>现在呢</b></h2>Square 表示，Afterpay 可以帮助将其卖家和现金应用业务更加紧密地联系在一起。Square 希望将 Afterpay 的分期付款服务推广给最小的商户客户，同时也为 Afterpay 的消费者提供直接在 Cash App 中付款的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Installment payments have proved popular during the pandemic, particularly among younger shoppers. Merchants, in turn, see offering these payment options as a way to boost sales.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，分期付款在疫情期间很受欢迎，尤其是在年轻购物者中。反过来，商家将提供这些支付选项视为促进销售的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p> Square's seller and Cash App platforms are already thriving. The company released its second-quarter results alongside its acquisition announcement. Gross profit in Square's seller and Cash App segments surged 85% and 94%, respectively, to $585 million and $546 million. That helped Square's net income improve to $204 million, compared to a loss of $11 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Square 的卖家和现金应用平台已经蓬勃发展。该公司在宣布收购的同时发布了第二季度业绩。Square 卖家和现金应用部门的毛利润分别飙升 85% 和 94%，达到 5.85 亿美元和 5.46 亿美元。这帮助 Square 的净利润提高到 2.04 亿美元，而去年同期亏损 1100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here's Why Square Stock Soared Today<blockquote>这就是 Square 股价今天飙升的原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere's Why Square Stock Soared Today<blockquote>这就是 Square 股价今天飙升的原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-03 11:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><h2><b>What happened</b></h2> Shares of&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">Square</a></b> jumped 10% on Monday, after thefintechgiant struck a deal to acquire Australian installment payments leader&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFTPF\">Afterpay Ltd.</a></b>.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>发生了什么事</b></h2>股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SQ\">平方</a></b>这家金融科技巨头达成协议收购澳大利亚分期付款领导者后，周一股价上涨 10%<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFTPF\">后付费有限公司</a></b>.</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>So what</b></h2> Afterpay is a leading provider of \"buy now, pay later\" services used by over 16 million consumers and nearly 100,000 merchants worldwide. The deal values Afterpay at about $29 billion, a roughly 30% premium to its closing price on Friday.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>那又怎样</b></h2>Afterpay是全球超过1600万消费者和近100,000家商家使用的“先买后付”服务提供商。该交易对 Afterpay 的估值约为 290 亿美元，比周五收盘价溢价约 30%。</blockquote></p><p> The transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2022, pending regulatory and shareholder approval.</p><p><blockquote>该交易预计将于 2022 年第一季度完成，等待监管部门和股东批准。</blockquote></p><p> \"Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,\" Square CEO Jack Dorsey said in a press release. \"We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.\"</p><p><blockquote>Square 首席执行官杰克·多西 (Jack Dorsey) 在一份新闻稿中表示：“Square 和 Afterpay 有着共同的目标。”“我们建立业务是为了让金融体系更加公平、便捷和包容，Afterpay 已经建立了一个符合这些原则的值得信赖的品牌。”</blockquote></p><p> <h2><b>Now what</b></h2> Square says Afterpay could help to tie its seller and Cash App businesses closer together. Square wants to roll out Afterpay's installment services to even its smallest merchant customers, while also giving Afterpay's consumers the option to make payments directly in Cash App.</p><p><blockquote><h2><b>现在呢</b></h2>Square 表示，Afterpay 可以帮助将其卖家和现金应用业务更加紧密地联系在一起。Square 希望将 Afterpay 的分期付款服务推广给最小的商户客户，同时也为 Afterpay 的消费者提供直接在 Cash App 中付款的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Installment payments have proved popular during the pandemic, particularly among younger shoppers. Merchants, in turn, see offering these payment options as a way to boost sales.</p><p><blockquote>事实证明，分期付款在疫情期间很受欢迎，尤其是在年轻购物者中。反过来，商家将提供这些支付选项视为促进销售的一种方式。</blockquote></p><p> Square's seller and Cash App platforms are already thriving. The company released its second-quarter results alongside its acquisition announcement. Gross profit in Square's seller and Cash App segments surged 85% and 94%, respectively, to $585 million and $546 million. That helped Square's net income improve to $204 million, compared to a loss of $11 million in the year-ago quarter.</p><p><blockquote>Square 的卖家和现金应用平台已经蓬勃发展。该公司在宣布收购的同时发布了第二季度业绩。Square 卖家和现金应用部门的毛利润分别飙升 85% 和 94%，达到 5.85 亿美元和 5.46 亿美元。这帮助 Square 的净利润提高到 2.04 亿美元，而去年同期亏损 1100 万美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/02/heres-why-square-stock-soared-today/\">The Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/08/02/heres-why-square-stock-soared-today/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122028715","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Square jumped 10% on Monday, after thefintechgiant struck a deal to acquire Australian installment payments leader Afterpay Ltd..\nSo what\nAfterpay is a leading provider of \"buy now, pay later\" services used by over 16 million consumers and nearly 100,000 merchants worldwide. The deal values Afterpay at about $29 billion, a roughly 30% premium to its closing price on Friday.\nThe transaction is expected to close in the first quarter of 2022, pending regulatory and shareholder approval.\n\"Square and Afterpay have a shared purpose,\" Square CEO Jack Dorsey said in a press release. \"We built our business to make the financial system more fair, accessible, and inclusive, and Afterpay has built a trusted brand aligned with those principles.\"\nNow what\nSquare says Afterpay could help to tie its seller and Cash App businesses closer together. Square wants to roll out Afterpay's installment services to even its smallest merchant customers, while also giving Afterpay's consumers the option to make payments directly in Cash App.\nInstallment payments have proved popular during the pandemic, particularly among younger shoppers. Merchants, in turn, see offering these payment options as a way to boost sales.\nSquare's seller and Cash App platforms are already thriving. The company released its second-quarter results alongside its acquisition announcement. Gross profit in Square's seller and Cash App segments surged 85% and 94%, respectively, to $585 million and $546 million. That helped Square's net income improve to $204 million, compared to a loss of $11 million in the year-ago quarter.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AFTPF":0.9,"SQ":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":657,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":805211877,"gmtCreate":1627882974499,"gmtModify":1633755616369,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Getting tougher....&nbsp;","listText":"Getting tougher....&nbsp;","text":"Getting tougher....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/805211877","repostId":"1149048645","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149048645","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627881957,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1149048645?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-02 13:25","market":"other","language":"en","title":"Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149048645","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to l","content":"<p>Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.</p><p><blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通货膨胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated.&nbsp;Labor shortages&nbsp;and&nbsp;supply-chain disruptions&nbsp;snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通货膨胀更困扰基金经理了。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下，上涨速度远远超过经济学家的预期。劳动力短缺和供应链中断困扰着全球航运业，加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into&nbsp;companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀会侵蚀公司的利润率，给股价带来压力。它还会蚕食政府债券固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销量和月度就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者的恐惧可能会越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡利率是通过衡量美国国债与其通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异计算得出的，它显示了交易者对一段时间内通胀的预期。自 5 月份达到年内峰值以来，5 年期、7 年期和 10 年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>交易员预计未来几年通胀将高于长期，这与过去十年有所不同。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Break-even inflation rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><b>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</b></blockquote></p><p> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行通过圣路易斯联储</blockquote></p><p> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>另一个转折是，目前约为 2.58% 的五年期收支平衡利率已经超过了 2.43% 左右的 10 年期收支平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部衡量消费者价格的主要指标 6 月份比前 12 个月跃升了 5.4%，这是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：交易员知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显著缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）说：“市场似乎正在泰然处之，”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月里都成功攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他的一些同行仍然担心通胀会上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅收紧宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱因托普先生并不那么担心。如果说他最近有什么担心的话，那就是迅速传播的 Covid-19 三角洲变种可能会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱因托普先生说，最近股票和债券市场的波动 “似乎更多是由更多（与大流行病相关的）封锁导致的经济衰退前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济衰退”。</blockquote></p><p> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的物价相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但它们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.</p><p><blockquote>4月、5月和6月，未经季节性调整的居民消费价格指数平均上涨0.9%，高于2010年至2019年同期平均水平0.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者几乎没有感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.</p><p><blockquote>CPI 通胀掉期--交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品--表明投资者只需要再看到一两个月令人瞠目的通胀，未经季节性调整的 CPI 指数预计将在 7 月份上涨 0.6%--在 2010-2019 年期间，CPI 指数的平均涨幅为 0.6%。8 月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过 5%，然后明年将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.</p><p><blockquote>二手车和卡车是投资者思考的重要组成部分。6月份，它们的价格比上月上涨了10.5%，推动了整体CPI涨幅的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格可能会在今年晚些时候上涨得更慢，甚至下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺问题最终会逐一得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔-庞德（Michael Pond）说：“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An&nbsp;ICE&nbsp;BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.</p><p><blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是停产的国债通胀保值证券——今年都提供了不同寻常的机会。剩余期限为一至近五年的 ICE BofA TIPS 指数今年的回报率为 4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>当 CPI 上升时，TIPS 持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付补偿，这意味着如果通货膨胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格上涨幅度不如预期，他们的收入将减少。</blockquote></p><p> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.</p><p><blockquote>“先锋集团（Vanguard Group）高级投资组合经理杰玛-赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯（Gemma Wright-Casparius）说：”短期TIPS的表现令人难以置信，主要是因为通胀补偿部分非常大。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Wright-Casparius 女士说，去年通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队在先锋集团的主动管理国库基金中增加了提示，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价充足。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀可能会比许多人预期的持续时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing&nbsp;could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies LLC 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表处于几十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常就会上升。</blockquote></p><p> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.</p><p><blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未决定何时开始减少债券购买，并且很可能会加息，直到完成缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，总体情况看起来比几个月前更加温和。</blockquote></p><p> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计通胀率将稳定在 2% 到 3% 的水平。这对市场来说并不坏，”Glenmede 私人财富公司首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation Is Hot Now, but Investors Are Betting That Won’t Last<blockquote>通货膨胀现在很热，但投资者押注这种情况不会持续太久</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-02 13:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.</p><p><blockquote>投资者押注，导致从二手车到木材等各种商品价格飙升的通货膨胀趋势将在未来几年消退，这对于努力寻找方向的市场来说是一个令人放心的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> Few issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated.&nbsp;Labor shortages&nbsp;and&nbsp;supply-chain disruptions&nbsp;snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.</p><p><blockquote>今年，很少有问题比通货膨胀更困扰基金经理了。随着全球经济重新站稳脚跟，商品和服务价格上涨——在许多情况下，上涨速度远远超过经济学家的预期。劳动力短缺和供应链中断困扰着全球航运业，加剧了通胀压力。</blockquote></p><p> The trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into&nbsp;companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.</p><p><blockquote>这一趋势令许多投资者感到担忧，因为通货膨胀会侵蚀公司的利润率，给股价带来压力。它还会蚕食政府债券固定收益的购买力。未来几天，投资者将看到新的经济数据，包括工厂订单、汽车销量和月度就业报告。</blockquote></p><p> Yet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.</p><p><blockquote>然而，市场开始发出信号，表明投资者的恐惧可能会越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> Take the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.</p><p><blockquote>以盈亏平衡率为例。盈亏平衡利率是通过衡量美国国债与其通胀保值国债（TIPS）之间的收益率差异计算得出的，它显示了交易者对一段时间内通胀的预期。自 5 月份达到年内峰值以来，5 年期、7 年期和 10 年期国债的盈亏平衡利率均有所下降，这表明交易员预计未来几年通胀将放缓。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Traders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>交易员预计未来几年通胀将高于长期，这与过去十年有所不同。</i></blockquote></p><p> <b>Break-even inflation rate</b><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/91c06c321234ab4172078be469b05f55\" tg-width=\"496\" tg-height=\"543\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><b>盈亏平衡通货膨胀率</b></blockquote></p><p> Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed</p><p><blockquote>资料来源：圣路易斯联邦储备银行通过圣路易斯联储</blockquote></p><p> In another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.</p><p><blockquote>另一个转折是，目前约为 2.58% 的五年期收支平衡利率已经超过了 2.43% 左右的 10 年期收支平衡利率。相比之下，劳工部衡量消费者价格的主要指标 6 月份比前 12 个月跃升了 5.4%，这是自 2008 年 8 月以来的最大价格涨幅。</blockquote></p><p> Put in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说：交易员知道现在通胀很热；但他们押注价格压力将显著缓解，不仅是在未来几年，而是在未来十年。</blockquote></p><p> “Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.</p><p><blockquote>嘉信理财（Charles Schwab）首席全球投资策略师杰弗里-克莱因托普（Jeffrey Kleintop）说：“市场似乎正在泰然处之，”他指出，从美国到欧洲的股指在过去一个月里都成功攀升至历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.</p><p><blockquote>虽然他的一些同行仍然担心通胀会上升到可能迫使美联储介入并大幅收紧宽松货币政策的水平，但克莱因托普先生并不那么担心。如果说他最近有什么担心的话，那就是迅速传播的 Covid-19 三角洲变种可能会扰乱美国的复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Recent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.</p><p><blockquote>克莱因托普先生说，最近股票和债券市场的波动 “似乎更多是由更多（与大流行病相关的）封锁导致的经济衰退前景驱动的，而不是美联储撤回支持导致的经济衰退”。</blockquote></p><p> Economists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.</p><p><blockquote>经济学家此前预计，由于与一年前严重低迷的物价相比，今年春季和夏季的通胀数据将会上升。但它们甚至远远超出了这些预期。</blockquote></p><p> In April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.</p><p><blockquote>4月、5月和6月，未经季节性调整的居民消费价格指数平均上涨0.9%，高于2010年至2019年同期平均水平0.6个百分点。</blockquote></p><p> Investors, though, have hardly been rattled.</p><p><blockquote>然而，投资者几乎没有感到不安。</blockquote></p><p> CPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.</p><p><blockquote>CPI 通胀掉期--交易员用来进行精确通胀押注的衍生品--表明投资者只需要再看到一两个月令人瞠目的通胀，未经季节性调整的 CPI 指数预计将在 7 月份上涨 0.6%--在 2010-2019 年期间，CPI 指数的平均涨幅为 0.6%。8 月份之后，月度通胀率预计仅略高于平均水平，但同比读数仍可能超过 5%，然后明年将大幅下降。</blockquote></p><p> Used cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.</p><p><blockquote>二手车和卡车是投资者思考的重要组成部分。6月份，它们的价格比上月上涨了10.5%，推动了整体CPI涨幅的三分之一。不过，许多人认为，随着汽车公司增加新车供应以及消费者开始更加谨慎地购物，二手车价格可能会在今年晚些时候上涨得更慢，甚至下降。</blockquote></p><p> Overall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.</p><p><blockquote>总体而言，华尔街的共识是，不同的供应短缺问题最终会逐一得到解决；与此同时，随着冠状病毒救助计划的到期，政府向家庭发放的资金减少，消费者需求将恢复正常。</blockquote></p><p> Markets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.</p><p><blockquote>巴克莱银行（Barclays）全球通胀相关研究主管迈克尔-庞德（Michael Pond）说：“是的，我们可能会出现一些强劲的通胀，但不太可能是结构性通胀。”</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Betting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An&nbsp;ICE&nbsp;BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.</p><p><blockquote>押注短期通胀——无论是通过掉期还是停产的国债通胀保值证券——今年都提供了不同寻常的机会。剩余期限为一至近五年的 ICE BofA TIPS 指数今年的回报率为 4.4%，而相同期限范围的非通胀保值国债的回报率为负 0.1%。</blockquote></p><p> Holders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.</p><p><blockquote>当 CPI 上升时，TIPS 持有者将获得额外的本金和息票支付补偿，这意味着如果通货膨胀超出预期，他们的收入将超过名义国债持有者，但如果价格上涨幅度不如预期，他们的收入将减少。</blockquote></p><p> “Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.</p><p><blockquote>“先锋集团（Vanguard Group）高级投资组合经理杰玛-赖特-卡斯帕里乌斯（Gemma Wright-Casparius）说：”短期TIPS的表现令人难以置信，主要是因为通胀补偿部分非常大。</blockquote></p><p> Ms. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.</p><p><blockquote>Wright-Casparius 女士说，去年通胀预期严重低迷时，她的团队在先锋集团的主动管理国库基金中增加了提示，但现在对通胀更加中性，认为市场对未来的定价充足。</blockquote></p><p> Some investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.</p><p><blockquote>一些投资者和分析师仍然认为，由于强劲的消费者需求和持续的供应中断，高通胀可能会比许多人预期的持续时间更长。</blockquote></p><p> Even if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing&nbsp;could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.</p><p><blockquote>Jefferies LLC 首席经济学家 Aneta Markowska 表示，即使二手车价格下跌，住房等其他类别也可能会朝另一个方向发展，家庭资产负债表处于几十年来最强劲的位置。</blockquote></p><p> Long-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>长期通胀预期也与美联储政策前景密切相关，每当美联储似乎需要更长时间通过缩减债券购买和加息来收紧货币政策时，通胀预期通常就会上升。</blockquote></p><p> Just in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.</p><p><blockquote>就在过去几天，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔表示，美联储尚未决定何时开始减少债券购买，并且很可能会加息，直到完成缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> Still, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，对于许多投资者来说，总体情况看起来比几个月前更加温和。</blockquote></p><p> “Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.</p><p><blockquote>“我们预计通胀率将稳定在 2% 到 3% 的水平。这对市场来说并不坏，”Glenmede 私人财富公司首席投资官杰森-普莱德（Jason Pride）说。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-hot-now-but-investors-are-betting-that-wont-last-11627810380?mod=hp_lead_pos1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149048645","content_text":"Investors are betting the inflationary streak that has sent prices of everything from used cars to lumber soaring will fade in the coming years, a reassuring sign for markets struggling to find direction.\nFew issues have vexed money managers more this year than inflation. As the global economy has regained its footing, prices for goods and services have risen—in many casesfar fasterthan economists had anticipated. Labor shortages and supply-chain disruptions snarling the global shipping industry have added to inflationary pressures.\nThe trend has worried many investors, since inflation can chip into companies’ profit margins, pressuring share prices. It can also eat away at the purchasing power of government bonds’ fixed returns. In the days ahead, investors will get a look at fresh economic data including factory orders, vehicle sales and the monthly employment report.\nYet markets are starting to signal that investors may be growing less fearful.\nTake the break-even rate. Calculated by measuring the difference in yields between Treasurys and their inflation-protected counterparts, or TIPS, the break-even rate shows how much inflation traders anticipate over a period of time. Since peaking for the year in May, the break-even rates for five-, seven-, and 10-year Treasurys have all fallen—suggesting traders are pricing in a moderation in inflation in coming years.\nTraders expect inflation will be higher in thenext couple of years than in the longer term, adeparture from the past decade.\nBreak-even inflation rate\nSource: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis via St.Louis Fed\nIn another twist, the five-year break-even rate, which currently trades around 2.58%, has surpassed the 10-year rate, which sits around 2.43%. In contrast, the Labor Department’s main gauge ofconsumer prices jumped 5.4% in Junefrom the 12 months prior—the biggest rise in prices recorded since August 2008.\nPut in other words: traders know inflation is hot now; but they are betting that price pressures will ease up significantly, not just in the next few years but over the next decade.\n“Markets seem to be taking it in stride,” said Jeffrey Kleintop, chief global investment strategist at Charles Schwab, noting stock indexes from the U.S. to Europe have managed to climb to records in the past month.\nWhile some of his peers continue to fear inflation will rise at levels that might force the Federal Reserve to step in and sharply rein in its easy-money policies, Mr. Kleintop isn’t as concerned. If there is anything he’s worried about these days, it is that thefast-spreading Delta variantof Covid-19 might wind up disrupting the U.S. recovery.\nRecent swings in stock and bond markets “seem more driven by prospects for a downturn driven by more [pandemic-related] lockdowns, rather than downturns from withdrawn support from the Fed,” Mr. Kleintop said.\nEconomists had expected inflation numbers to be elevated this spring and summer thanks to comparisons to deeply depressed prices a year earlier. But they have far exceeded even those expectations.\nIn April, May and June, the consumer-price index rose a non-seasonally adjusted 0.9% on average, 0.6 percentage point higher than the average over that period from 2010 through 2019.\nInvestors, though, have hardly been rattled.\nCPI inflation swaps—derivatives used by traders to make precise inflation bets—indicate investors are looking for just one or two more months of eye-popping inflation, with the non-seasonally adjusted CPI index expected to rise 0.6% in July—a month in which, on average, it didn’t rise at all in the 2010-2019 period. After August, monthly inflation is expected to be only a little above average, though year-over-year readings could still exceed 5% before dropping sharply next year.\nUsed cars and trucksplay a major partin investors’ thinking. In June, their prices rose 10.5% from the previous month, driving a third of the rise in overall CPI. Many, though, believe used-car prices could rise more slowly later in the year or even decline, as auto companies ramp up the supply of new cars and consumers start shopping more carefully.\nOverall, the consensus on Wall Street is that different supply shortages will, one by one, eventually be resolved; at the same time, consumer demand will normalize as the government sends less money to households with the expiration of coronavirus-relief programs.\nMarkets are saying “yes, we might get some strong inflation, but it’s not likely to be structural inflation,” said Michael Pond, head of global inflation-linked research atBarclays.\nBetting on short-term inflation—whether through swaps or off-the-run Treasury-inflation protected securities—has offered unusual opportunities this year. An ICE BofA index of TIPS with remaining maturities of one to nearly five years has returned 4.4% this year, compared with negative 0.1% for non-inflation protected Treasurys of the same maturity range.\nHolders of TIPS are compensated with additional principal and coupon payments when CPI rises, meaning they outearn holders of nominal Treasurys if inflation exceeds expectations but earn less if prices don’t rise as much as expected.\n“Short-term TIPS have done incredibly well mainly because the inflation compensation component is very large,” said Gemma Wright-Casparius, senior portfolio manager at Vanguard Group, who leads the firm’s actively managed Treasury and inflation bond funds.\nMs. Wright-Casparius said her team added TIPS to Vanguard’s actively managed Treasury funds last year when inflation expectations were deeply depressed but is now more neutral on inflation, seeing the market as adequately priced for what lies ahead.\nSome investors and analysts still think high inflation could linger longer than many expect, thanks to both strong consumer demand and continued supply disruptions.\nEven if used-car prices decline, othercategories such as housing could push in the other direction with household balance sheets in their strongest position in decades, said Aneta Markowska, chief economist at Jefferies LLC.\nLong-term inflation expectations have been also closely linked with the outlook for Federal Reserve policy, typically rising whenever it seems the Fed will take a longer time to tighten monetary policy by tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates.\nJust in the past few days, the 10-year break-even rate has ticked higher after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell said the central bank had made no decision about when to start reducing bond purchases and would beunlikely to raise ratesuntil it was done with tapering.\nStill, for many investors, the overall picture looks more benign than it did a few months ago.\n“Our expectation is that inflation is going to settle into a two to three percent clip. And that’s not bad for the market,” said Jason Pride, chief investment officer of private wealth for Glenmede.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":894615735,"gmtCreate":1628821377227,"gmtModify":1633689202207,"author":{"id":"3578612626332852","authorId":"3578612626332852","name":"KRIS0330","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c66660a5496fad25bd4bfe7c228b1cef","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3578612626332852","idStr":"3578612626332852"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/894615735","repostId":"1188620903","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":656,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}