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vivo8787

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2022-01-21

Ok

美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高

2022-01-10

Yup

Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>

2022-01-08

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-03

Share

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-02

Try

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-11-01

So should we just leave it a side?

@Rookie22:$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Hope next week better .

2021-10-31

Good

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-31

Nice

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-30

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2021-10-29

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭

2021-10-29

$Hall of Fame Resort & Entertainment(HOFV)$😭

2021-10-08

Buy?

@SR050321:$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$Drop so much

2021-09-09

Haizzz

Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>

2021-09-08

Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>

2021-09-03

Will only know by then🤔

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-09-02

Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅

Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>

2021-09-01

But didn't last[捂脸]

Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%</blockquote>

2021-08-30

Good news?

Li Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布 2021 年第二季度未经审计财务业绩</blockquote>

2021-08-23

Ok

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-23

Roller coaster stock😞

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

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21:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141206162","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。</p><p>美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63132c7e5a227834ff7d6da07f35c9a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。</p><p><b>机构评美国初请数据</b>：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-20 21:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。</p><p>美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63132c7e5a227834ff7d6da07f35c9a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。</p><p><b>机构评美国初请数据</b>：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f866f5d880ac7442ed06621cdcccdbfd","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141206162","content_text":"美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。机构评美国初请数据：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4539,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694074922,"gmtCreate":1641774535668,"gmtModify":1641774536283,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694074922","repostId":"1198290127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198290127","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641702682,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198290127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-09 12:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198290127","media":"TheStreet","summary":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3 万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快夺回里程碑并在 2022 年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值接近 3 万亿美元，但很快跌破 2.9 万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩政策的反应应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股票最终能否在 2022 年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的期望？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会接管吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在 11 月底至 12 月初疯狂攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持 “AAPL 3 万亿美元 ”。例如，至少从我们去年第三季度的谈话开始，Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）就一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在 11 月份将目标价上调至每股 200 美元，而摩根大通研究团队则预计苹果股票在未来 12 个月内市值将达到 3.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup 的吉恩-明斯特（Gene Munster）认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股 250 美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的势头。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：熊案</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上述乐观预期主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场进入 2022 年仍保持警惕。目前的祸根似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这将导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然 AAPL 不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近 30 倍的远期市盈率和温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累 2022 年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的好股票。在以卓越运营为动力的首席执行官（兼前首席运营官）的领导下，公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的欣赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022 年头几周或几个月的设置对我来说很有挑战性。苹果股价在 2020 年持续攀升，去年又再次攀升。得益于疫情推动的技术设备需求激增以及系统中充足的流动性，苹果公司在 2019 年至 2021 年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够并可能在未来许多年为公司的财务业绩提供支持，但我认为苹果公司的股票早该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至 3 万亿美元以上，并最终从那里走得更高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生并不那么有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-09 12:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3 万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快夺回里程碑并在 2022 年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值接近 3 万亿美元，但很快跌破 2.9 万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩政策的反应应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股票最终能否在 2022 年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的期望？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会接管吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在 11 月底至 12 月初疯狂攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持 “AAPL 3 万亿美元 ”。例如，至少从我们去年第三季度的谈话开始，Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）就一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在 11 月份将目标价上调至每股 200 美元，而摩根大通研究团队则预计苹果股票在未来 12 个月内市值将达到 3.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup 的吉恩-明斯特（Gene Munster）认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股 250 美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的势头。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：熊案</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上述乐观预期主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场进入 2022 年仍保持警惕。目前的祸根似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这将导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然 AAPL 不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近 30 倍的远期市盈率和温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累 2022 年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的好股票。在以卓越运营为动力的首席执行官（兼前首席运营官）的领导下，公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的欣赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022 年头几周或几个月的设置对我来说很有挑战性。苹果股价在 2020 年持续攀升，去年又再次攀升。得益于疫情推动的技术设备需求激增以及系统中充足的流动性，苹果公司在 2019 年至 2021 年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够并可能在未来许多年为公司的财务业绩提供支持，但我认为苹果公司的股票早该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至 3 万亿美元以上，并最终从那里走得更高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生并不那么有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198290127","content_text":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.AAPL: the bull caseAs Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.AAPL: the bear caseDespite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.The Apple Maven’s takeI continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695787192,"gmtCreate":1641601518528,"gmtModify":1641601727434,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695787192","repostId":"2201424321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841506858,"gmtCreate":1635921007650,"gmtModify":1635921007923,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841506858","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843878936,"gmtCreate":1635820301542,"gmtModify":1635820301764,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Try","listText":"Try","text":"Try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843878936","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4707,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849074650,"gmtCreate":1635721442572,"gmtModify":1635721442844,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"So should we just leave it a side?&nbsp;","listText":"So should we just leave it a side?&nbsp;","text":"So should we just leave it a side?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849074650","repostId":"840649554","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":840649554,"gmtCreate":1635645666702,"gmtModify":1635645666987,"author":{"id":"3575290973507485","authorId":"3575290973507485","name":"Rookie22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6852efd5f87d9ecf7965e213c38ac97","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3575290973507485","authorIdStr":"3575290973507485"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Hope next week better .&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Hope next week better .&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Hope next week better .","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1901d073561f6488f2f24f49ec8c23e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840649554","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4689,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840448310,"gmtCreate":1635679428779,"gmtModify":1635679429052,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840448310","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840610698,"gmtCreate":1635642004872,"gmtModify":1635642005108,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840610698","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4191,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840100959,"gmtCreate":1635599686124,"gmtModify":1635599686400,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840100959","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4027,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857014237,"gmtCreate":1635494699734,"gmtModify":1635494700574,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b504835db915bd6b1ddffdbac9a535f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857014237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857014186,"gmtCreate":1635494680748,"gmtModify":1635494681596,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOFV\">$Hall of Fame Resort &amp; Entertainment(HOFV)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOFV\">$Hall of Fame Resort &amp; Entertainment(HOFV)$</a>😭","text":"$Hall of Fame Resort & Entertainment(HOFV)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ec462443218b4253a7a9cd81e4e38a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857014186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1430,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823554433,"gmtCreate":1633651065745,"gmtModify":1633651066622,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Buy?&nbsp;","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823554433","repostId":"823592192","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":823592192,"gmtCreate":1633647272763,"gmtModify":1633647273928,"author":{"id":"3577965120664925","authorId":"3577965120664925","name":"SR050321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad8f48d49f7392730c39c441b79e8f0","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577965120664925","authorIdStr":"3577965120664925"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$New Oriental Education &amp; Technology(EDU)$</a>Drop so much","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$New Oriental Education &amp; Technology(EDU)$</a>Drop so much","text":"$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$Drop so much","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8618a6e8a0b3bfc6d9905b6c310515d7","width":"750","height":"2331"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823592192","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1752,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889475194,"gmtCreate":1631175143318,"gmtModify":1631890400927,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Haizzz","listText":"Haizzz","text":"Haizzz","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":14,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889475194","repostId":"1176538965","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1176538965","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1631174811,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1176538965?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-09 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1176538965","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Sept 9)&nbsp;Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","content":"<p>(Sept 9)&nbsp;Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月9日）中国概念股盘前交易多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cc6e1e421893d8bebaea0dc552bf76\" tg-width=\"279\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>大多数中国概念股在盘前交易中下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 9)&nbsp;Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月9日）中国概念股盘前交易多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cc6e1e421893d8bebaea0dc552bf76\" tg-width=\"279\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176538965","content_text":"(Sept 9) Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":966,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880448660,"gmtCreate":1631076118350,"gmtModify":1631890400930,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","listText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","text":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880448660","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌 15%。以下是投资者可能会考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示：“市场以完美和脆弱为定价”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储充满信心。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特 (Lisa Shalett) 在周二的一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场被定价为完美且脆弱，特别是因为自 2020 年 3 月低点以来，市场的调整幅度从未超过 10%。”她写道，该银行的全球投资委员会预计今年年底前股市将回调 10% 至 15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“面对令人担忧的事态发展，美国主要股指在 8 月份和 9 月份的头几天走强，连续创下更多每日新高，但本着‘攀登担忧之墙’的精神，不再具有建设性，”沙莱特说。“考虑在指数基金中获利了结，”她说，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19 住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和重大地缘政治转变”的可能性。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议将投资组合重新平衡为“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融领域的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直在挑战股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管周期性股票和小盘股等市场其他领域有所下降，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司 2021 年 9 月 7 日的票据。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特写道：“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率 (P/E) 会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地由利润增长而不是政策制定者推动。”但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利“对经济前景保持乐观”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该银行的全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>由于道琼斯工业平均指数和标普500美国股市基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收盘创下历史新高。美国股市的蓝筹股指标道琼斯指数和科技股最多的标普500指数仍接近近期的峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，道琼斯市场数据显示，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点，至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示：“实际利率终于走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中撤出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，而市盈率已经远高于历史常态，特别是考虑到当前测量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙莱特表示，投资者似乎对美联储及其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”寄予厚望，以实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎已经让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力巧妙地穿过政策针而不犯错误”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，美联储在 8 月下旬举行的怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申了其观点，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策紧缩，并且“实际加息与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的门槛挂钩，”沙莱特表示。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1107,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815315800,"gmtCreate":1630643568900,"gmtModify":1631890400929,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will only know by then🤔","listText":"Will only know by then🤔","text":"Will only know by then🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815315800","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":792,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812599746,"gmtCreate":1630593249685,"gmtModify":1631890400933,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","listText":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","text":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812599746","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":764,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816865846,"gmtCreate":1630488257385,"gmtModify":1631890400935,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"But didn't&nbsp;last[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"But didn't&nbsp;last[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"But didn't last[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816865846","repostId":"2164974896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164974896","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630485420,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2164974896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164974896","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading.\n\nLi Auto Inc. announced that the Company delivered 9,","content":"<p>Li Auto&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5a8ce4f2ac5cf0a6d10f2a49585963\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公司宣布，该公司在2021年8月交付了9433辆Li One，同比增长248.0%，环比增长9.8%，再次打破了该公司的月度交付记录。2021年前八个月的总交付量和Li ONEs的累计交付量分别达到48，176辆和81，773辆。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月31日，该公司在69个城市拥有114家零售店，在143个城市拥有194家服务中心和理想汽车授权的车身和油漆店。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Li Auto&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨 2.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5a8ce4f2ac5cf0a6d10f2a49585963\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车公司宣布，该公司在2021年8月交付了9433辆Li One，同比增长248.0%，环比增长9.8%，再次打破了该公司的月度交付记录。2021年前八个月的总交付量和Li ONEs的累计交付量分别达到48，176辆和81，773辆。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月31日，该公司在69个城市拥有114家零售店，在143个城市拥有194家服务中心和理想汽车授权的车身和油漆店。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164974896","content_text":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading.\n\nLi Auto Inc. announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.\nAs of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"CRCT":0.9,"LI":0.9,"TERN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811638773,"gmtCreate":1630315244092,"gmtModify":1704958293445,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good news?&nbsp;","listText":"Good news?&nbsp;","text":"Good news?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811638773","repostId":"1188489761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188489761","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630314512,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1188489761?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-30 17:08","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布 2021 年第二季度未经审计财务业绩</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188489761","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021  -- Li Auto Inc.  , an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2021.Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021. Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021. Vehicle sales were RMB4.90 billion  in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increa","content":"<p>BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June&nbsp;30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>中国北京，2021 年 8 月 30 日 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 中国新能源汽车市场的创新者理想汽车公司（“理想汽车”或 “公司”）（纳斯达克代码：LI；港交所代码：2015）今天公布了截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的季度未经审计财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>二零二一年第二季度经营亮点</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.</li> </ul> <table></table> <ul>  <li>As of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.</li> </ul> <b><u>Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年第二季度，理想汽车交付量为17,575辆，同比增长166.1%。</li></ul><table></table><ul><li>截至2021年6月30日，该公司在64个城市拥有97家零售店，在127个城市拥有167个服务中心和理想汽车授权的车身和油漆店。</li></ul><b><u>2021年第二季度财务摘要</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Vehicle sales</b>&nbsp;were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Vehicle margin2</b>was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross profit</b>&nbsp;was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross margin</b>&nbsp;was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Loss from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP loss from operations3</b>was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Net loss</b>&nbsp;was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP net loss3</b>was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Operating cash flow</b>&nbsp;was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Free cash flow4</b>&nbsp;was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> Li&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>车辆销售</b>2021年第二季度为人民币49.0亿元（7.594亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币34.6亿元增长41.6%。</li><li><b>车辆保证金2</b>2021年第二季度为18.7%，而2021年第一季度为16.9%。</li><li><b>收入总额</b>2021年第二季度为人民币50.4亿元（7.804亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币35.8亿元增长40.9%。</li><li><b>毛利</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.528亿元（1.476亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币6.167亿元增长54.5%。</li><li><b>毛利率</b>2021年第二季度为18.9%，而2021年第一季度为17.3%。</li></ul><ul><li><b>经营亏损</b>2021年第二季度为人民币535.9百万元（83.0百万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币407.7百万元增长31.4%。<b>非 GAAP 运营亏损3</b>2021年第二季度为人民币3.655亿元（5660万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币2.248亿元增长62.6%。</li><li><b>净亏损</b>2021 年第二季度净亏损为人民币 235.5 百万元（36.5 百万美元），较 2021 年第一季度净亏损人民币 360.0 百万元减少 34.6%。<b>非公认会计准则净亏损3</b>2021 年第二季度净亏损为人民币 65.1 百万元（1010 万美元），而 2021 年第一季度净亏损为人民币 177.0 百万元。</li><li><b>经营现金流量</b>2021年第二季度为人民币1,407.6百万元（218.0百万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币926.3百万元增长52.0%。</li><li><b>自由现金流量4</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.821亿元（1.521亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币5.702亿元增长72.2%。</li></ul>李股份在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb03a526571e03322239f50429dc71f\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1573717531661","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布 2021 年第二季度未经审计财务业绩</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布 2021 年第二季度未经审计财务业绩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GlobeNewswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-30 17:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June&nbsp;30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>中国北京，2021 年 8 月 30 日 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- 中国新能源汽车市场的创新者理想汽车公司（“理想汽车”或 “公司”）（纳斯达克代码：LI；港交所代码：2015）今天公布了截至 2021 年 6 月 30 日的季度未经审计财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>二零二一年第二季度经营亮点</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.</li> </ul> <table></table> <ul>  <li>As of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.</li> </ul> <b><u>Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年第二季度，理想汽车交付量为17,575辆，同比增长166.1%。</li></ul><table></table><ul><li>截至2021年6月30日，该公司在64个城市拥有97家零售店，在127个城市拥有167个服务中心和理想汽车授权的车身和油漆店。</li></ul><b><u>2021年第二季度财务摘要</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Vehicle sales</b>&nbsp;were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Vehicle margin2</b>was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross profit</b>&nbsp;was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross margin</b>&nbsp;was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Loss from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP loss from operations3</b>was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Net loss</b>&nbsp;was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP net loss3</b>was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Operating cash flow</b>&nbsp;was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Free cash flow4</b>&nbsp;was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> Li&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>车辆销售</b>2021年第二季度为人民币49.0亿元（7.594亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币34.6亿元增长41.6%。</li><li><b>车辆保证金2</b>2021年第二季度为18.7%，而2021年第一季度为16.9%。</li><li><b>收入总额</b>2021年第二季度为人民币50.4亿元（7.804亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币35.8亿元增长40.9%。</li><li><b>毛利</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.528亿元（1.476亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币6.167亿元增长54.5%。</li><li><b>毛利率</b>2021年第二季度为18.9%，而2021年第一季度为17.3%。</li></ul><ul><li><b>经营亏损</b>2021年第二季度为人民币535.9百万元（83.0百万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币407.7百万元增长31.4%。<b>非 GAAP 运营亏损3</b>2021年第二季度为人民币3.655亿元（5660万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币2.248亿元增长62.6%。</li><li><b>净亏损</b>2021 年第二季度净亏损为人民币 235.5 百万元（36.5 百万美元），较 2021 年第一季度净亏损人民币 360.0 百万元减少 34.6%。<b>非公认会计准则净亏损3</b>2021 年第二季度净亏损为人民币 65.1 百万元（1010 万美元），而 2021 年第一季度净亏损为人民币 177.0 百万元。</li><li><b>经营现金流量</b>2021年第二季度为人民币1,407.6百万元（218.0百万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币926.3百万元增长52.0%。</li><li><b>自由现金流量4</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.821亿元（1.521亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币5.702亿元增长72.2%。</li></ul>李股份在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb03a526571e03322239f50429dc71f\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/08/30/2288094/0/en/Li-Auto-Inc-Announces-Unaudited-Second-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results.html\">GlobeNewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LI":"理想汽车","02015":"理想汽车-W"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/08/30/2288094/0/en/Li-Auto-Inc-Announces-Unaudited-Second-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188489761","content_text":"BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2021.\nOperating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021\n\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.\n\n\n\nAs of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.\n\nFinancial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021\n\nVehicle sales were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.\nVehicle margin2was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.\nTotal revenues were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.\nGross profit was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nGross margin was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.\n\n\nLoss from operations was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.Non-GAAP loss from operations3was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nNet loss was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.Non-GAAP net loss3was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.\nOperating cash flow was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nFree cash flow4 was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.\n\nLi shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832749437,"gmtCreate":1629679373529,"gmtModify":1631890400939,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832749437","repostId":"1115632642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1126,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175692364,"gmtCreate":1627027743058,"gmtModify":1631890400943,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Roller coaster stock😞","listText":"Roller coaster stock😞","text":"Roller coaster stock😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175692364","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":915,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841506858,"gmtCreate":1635921007650,"gmtModify":1635921007923,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841506858","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694074922,"gmtCreate":1641774535668,"gmtModify":1641774536283,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694074922","repostId":"1198290127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198290127","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641702682,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198290127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-09 12:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198290127","media":"TheStreet","summary":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3 万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快夺回里程碑并在 2022 年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值接近 3 万亿美元，但很快跌破 2.9 万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩政策的反应应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股票最终能否在 2022 年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的期望？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会接管吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在 11 月底至 12 月初疯狂攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持 “AAPL 3 万亿美元 ”。例如，至少从我们去年第三季度的谈话开始，Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）就一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在 11 月份将目标价上调至每股 200 美元，而摩根大通研究团队则预计苹果股票在未来 12 个月内市值将达到 3.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup 的吉恩-明斯特（Gene Munster）认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股 250 美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的势头。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：熊案</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上述乐观预期主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场进入 2022 年仍保持警惕。目前的祸根似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这将导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然 AAPL 不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近 30 倍的远期市盈率和温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累 2022 年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的好股票。在以卓越运营为动力的首席执行官（兼前首席运营官）的领导下，公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的欣赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022 年头几周或几个月的设置对我来说很有挑战性。苹果股价在 2020 年持续攀升，去年又再次攀升。得益于疫情推动的技术设备需求激增以及系统中充足的流动性，苹果公司在 2019 年至 2021 年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够并可能在未来许多年为公司的财务业绩提供支持，但我认为苹果公司的股票早该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至 3 万亿美元以上，并最终从那里走得更高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生并不那么有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股票能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-09 12:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3 万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快夺回里程碑并在 2022 年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值接近 3 万亿美元，但很快跌破 2.9 万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩政策的反应应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股票最终能否在 2022 年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的期望？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会接管吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在 11 月底至 12 月初疯狂攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持 “AAPL 3 万亿美元 ”。例如，至少从我们去年第三季度的谈话开始，Wedbush 的丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）就一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在 11 月份将目标价上调至每股 200 美元，而摩根大通研究团队则预计苹果股票在未来 12 个月内市值将达到 3.5 万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup 的吉恩-明斯特（Gene Munster）认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股 250 美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的势头。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL：熊案</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管上述乐观预期主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场进入 2022 年仍保持警惕。目前的祸根似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这将导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然 AAPL 不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近 30 倍的远期市盈率和温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累 2022 年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的好股票。在以卓越运营为动力的首席执行官（兼前首席运营官）的领导下，公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的欣赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022 年头几周或几个月的设置对我来说很有挑战性。苹果股价在 2020 年持续攀升，去年又再次攀升。得益于疫情推动的技术设备需求激增以及系统中充足的流动性，苹果公司在 2019 年至 2021 年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够并可能在未来许多年为公司的财务业绩提供支持，但我认为苹果公司的股票早该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至 3 万亿美元以上，并最终从那里走得更高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生并不那么有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198290127","content_text":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.AAPL: the bull caseAs Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.AAPL: the bear caseDespite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.The Apple Maven’s takeI continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4624,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151506450,"gmtCreate":1625097202170,"gmtModify":1631893487939,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Want to know also?&nbsp;","listText":"Want to know also?&nbsp;","text":"Want to know also?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151506450","repostId":"1121473384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121473384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625067394,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121473384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121473384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIOwere moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $5","content":"<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的乐观言论提高了蔚来汽车 6 月份销售报告之前的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）在周三早盘交易中走高，此前一位华尔街分析师上调了该银行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午 11:35，蔚来汽车美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约 5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份说明中。花旗银行分析师 Jeff Chung 将蔚来的目标股价从 58.30 美元上调至 72 美元，同时重申了他之前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung 写道，他预计蔚来 6 月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后 2021 年第三和第四季度将实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在 2021 年交付 93,000 辆汽车，高于他之前预计的 90,000 辆，并上调了 2022 年和 2024 年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来汽车股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久公布月度交付量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来汽车 6 月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了其指引，评级第二季度的总交付量在 21,000 至 22,000 辆之间。截至 5 月底，尽管电脑芯片短缺导致生产中断，但该公司仍交付了 13,183 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来会跑赢自己的指引吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，不太可能。然而，如果其 6 月份的业绩使其第二季度总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。我们一两天后就会知道。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 23:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>华尔街的乐观言论提高了蔚来汽车 6 月份销售报告之前的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：NIO）在周三早盘交易中走高，此前一位华尔街分析师上调了该银行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午 11:35，蔚来汽车美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约 5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份说明中。花旗银行分析师 Jeff Chung 将蔚来的目标股价从 58.30 美元上调至 72 美元，同时重申了他之前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung 写道，他预计蔚来 6 月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后 2021 年第三和第四季度将实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在 2021 年交付 93,000 辆汽车，高于他之前预计的 90,000 辆，并上调了 2022 年和 2024 年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来汽车股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久公布月度交付量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来汽车 6 月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了其指引，评级第二季度的总交付量在 21,000 至 22,000 辆之间。截至 5 月底，尽管电脑芯片短缺导致生产中断，但该公司仍交付了 13,183 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来会跑赢自己的指引吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，不太可能。然而，如果其 6 月份的业绩使其第二季度总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。我们一两天后就会知道。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121473384","content_text":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.\nAs of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.\nIn a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.\nChung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target price-to-earnings multiple for NIO's shares.\nNIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had delivered 13,183 vehicles despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.\nWill NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":571,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137179708,"gmtCreate":1622333386104,"gmtModify":1634102322587,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Likes n comments please&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137179708","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":751,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133769543,"gmtCreate":1621812111482,"gmtModify":1634186519372,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Likes n comments please!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133769543","repostId":"2137827351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":601,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132112261,"gmtCreate":1622075564153,"gmtModify":1634184124153,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132112261","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":742,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178349210,"gmtCreate":1626789427530,"gmtModify":1631890400950,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7730c51e47df769bde9ae972bc75132","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178349210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1602,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4088843020370800","authorId":"4088843020370800","name":"cc52044","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d7ba6683a840b854ca16f8a5ff550aa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"authorIdStr":"4088843020370800","idStr":"4088843020370800"},"content":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]","text":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]","html":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160520181,"gmtCreate":1623802382243,"gmtModify":1634028038811,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160520181","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":608,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117919313,"gmtCreate":1623113065032,"gmtModify":1634036855790,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117919313","repostId":"1140821913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116000017,"gmtCreate":1622764288139,"gmtModify":1634098324075,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116000017","repostId":"1152443659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152443659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622763716,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152443659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 07:41","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"DocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign 股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152443659","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"DocuSign Inc.DOCU shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement compan","content":"<p>DocuSign Inc.DOCU&nbsp;shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.DOCU 股价在周四的延长交易中反弹，此前这家数字协议公司的季度业绩和前景超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p>DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ee3c53b3c742759847ae47899cb7d\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>DocuSign 股价盘后飙升 6%，常规交易时段下跌 2.9%，收于 194.75 美元。该公司公布第一季度亏损 840 万美元，即每股亏损 4 美分，而去年同期亏损 4780 万美元，即每股亏损 26 美分。调整后收益（不包括股票薪酬费用和其他项目）为每股 44 美分，而去年同期为每股 12 美分。收入从去年同期的 2.97 亿美元增至 4.691 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 调查的分析师预测每股收入为 28 美分，营收为 4.376 亿美元。DocuSign 预计第二季度收入为 4.79 亿至 4.85 亿美元，全年收入为 20.3 亿至 20.4 亿美元。分析师预计第二季度营收为 4.742 亿美元，全年营收为 19.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign 股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign 股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DocuSign Inc.DOCU&nbsp;shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.DOCU 股价在周四的延长交易中反弹，此前这家数字协议公司的季度业绩和前景超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p>DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ee3c53b3c742759847ae47899cb7d\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>DocuSign 股价盘后飙升 6%，常规交易时段下跌 2.9%，收于 194.75 美元。该公司公布第一季度亏损 840 万美元，即每股亏损 4 美分，而去年同期亏损 4780 万美元，即每股亏损 26 美分。调整后收益（不包括股票薪酬费用和其他项目）为每股 44 美分，而去年同期为每股 12 美分。收入从去年同期的 2.97 亿美元增至 4.691 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet 调查的分析师预测每股收入为 28 美分，营收为 4.376 亿美元。DocuSign 预计第二季度收入为 4.79 亿至 4.85 亿美元，全年收入为 20.3 亿至 20.4 亿美元。分析师预计第二季度营收为 4.742 亿美元，全年营收为 19.9 亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152443659","content_text":"DocuSign Inc.DOCU shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}