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2021-11-03

Share

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

2022-01-10

Yup

Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>

2021-07-01

Want to know also?

Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>

2021-05-30

Likes n comments please

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2021-05-24

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2021-05-27

Response please! Thanks!

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2021-07-20

$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭

2021-06-16

Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!

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2021-06-08

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2021-06-04

Response please! Thanks!

DocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote>

2021-05-18

Likes n response pls!

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2021-09-08

Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜

Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>

2021-06-22

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2021-06-17

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Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>

2021-06-06

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U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>

2021-05-23

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2021-10-08

Buy?

@SR050321:$New Oriental Education & Technology(EDU)$Drop so much

2021-09-09

Haizzz

Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>中概股盘前多数下跌</blockquote>

2021-06-20

Everything rocketing so do share prices. What is the cause of all these happening? Who are those really suffer during inflation?

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2021-11-02

Try

@小虎活动:[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!

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21:34","market":"us","language":"zh","title":"美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1141206162","media":"老虎资讯综合","summary":"初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。","content":"<html><head></head><body><p>美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。</p><p>美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63132c7e5a227834ff7d6da07f35c9a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。</p><p><b>机构评美国初请数据</b>：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。</p></body></html>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta 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}\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n美国上周初请失业金人数创去年10月以来新高\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/102\">\n\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">老虎资讯综合 </p>\n<p class=\"h-time\">2022-01-20 21:34</p>\n</div>\n\n</a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<html><head></head><body><p>美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。</p><p>美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。</p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d63132c7e5a227834ff7d6da07f35c9a\" tg-width=\"572\" tg-height=\"203\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/></p><p>财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。</p><p><b>机构评美国初请数据</b>：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。</p></body></html>\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f866f5d880ac7442ed06621cdcccdbfd","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"","is_english":false,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1141206162","content_text":"美国至1月15日当周初请失业金人数录得28.6万人，为去年10月来新高。美股股指期货短线走高，纳指期货涨超1%，道指期货、标普500指数期货分别涨0.42%和0.52%。财经网站Forexlive分析师Greg Michalowski：初请失业金领取人数的增长可能是因为奥密克戎毒株疫情。机构评美国初请数据：美国初请失业金人数连续第三周意外上升，至去年10月中旬以来最高水平，暗示奥密克戎毒株疫情可能导致公司裁员。初请人数的增加可能意味着雇主在最近的新冠肺炎病例激增期间裁员。即便如此，由于目前劳动力短缺的情况下，企业都迫切希望留住和吸引人才，因此裁员的影响应该是短暂的。","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694074922,"gmtCreate":1641774535668,"gmtModify":1641774536283,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694074922","repostId":"1198290127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198290127","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641702682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198290127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-09 12:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198290127","media":"TheStreet","summary":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快恢复里程碑并在2022年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值曾一度接近3万亿美元，但很快跌破2.9万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩的反应现在应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股价能否最终在2022年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的预期？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会占上风吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在11月底至12月初期间恶性攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持“AAPL$3T”。例如，至少自去年第三季度我们的谈话以来，Wedbush的Dan Ives一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在11月份将目标价上调至每股200美元，而摩根大通研究团队预计苹果股票的市值将在未来12个月内达到3.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup的吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股250美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年里获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的动力。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：熊市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在上述乐观预期，主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场在进入2022年时仍保持警惕。眼下的恶魔似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这应该会导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然AAPL不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近30倍的预期市盈率和仅温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累2022年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的优秀股票。在以卓越运营为驱动力的首席执行官（和前首席运营官）的领导下，该公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的赞赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022年前几周或几个月的设置对我来说看起来很有挑战性。苹果股价在2020年无情攀升，去年再次攀升。得益于大流行推动的科技设备需求激增以及系统中充裕的流动性，AAPL在2019年至2021年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报率之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够而且很可能支持公司未来许多年的财务业绩，但我认为苹果公司的股票早就应该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至3万亿美元以上，并最终进一步走高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生不太有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-09 12:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快恢复里程碑并在2022年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值曾一度接近3万亿美元，但很快跌破2.9万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩的反应现在应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股价能否最终在2022年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的预期？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会占上风吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在11月底至12月初期间恶性攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持“AAPL$3T”。例如，至少自去年第三季度我们的谈话以来，Wedbush的Dan Ives一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在11月份将目标价上调至每股200美元，而摩根大通研究团队预计苹果股票的市值将在未来12个月内达到3.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup的吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股250美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年里获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的动力。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：熊市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在上述乐观预期，主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场在进入2022年时仍保持警惕。眼下的恶魔似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这应该会导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然AAPL不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近30倍的预期市盈率和仅温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累2022年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的优秀股票。在以卓越运营为驱动力的首席执行官（和前首席运营官）的领导下，该公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的赞赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022年前几周或几个月的设置对我来说看起来很有挑战性。苹果股价在2020年无情攀升，去年再次攀升。得益于大流行推动的科技设备需求激增以及系统中充裕的流动性，AAPL在2019年至2021年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报率之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够而且很可能支持公司未来许多年的财务业绩，但我认为苹果公司的股票早就应该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至3万亿美元以上，并最终进一步走高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生不太有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198290127","content_text":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.AAPL: the bull caseAs Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.AAPL: the bear caseDespite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.The Apple Maven’s takeI continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":695787192,"gmtCreate":1641601518528,"gmtModify":1641601727434,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/695787192","repostId":"2201424321","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2882,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":841506858,"gmtCreate":1635921007650,"gmtModify":1635921007923,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841506858","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":843878936,"gmtCreate":1635820301542,"gmtModify":1635820301764,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Try","listText":"Try","text":"Try","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":13,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/843878936","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":849074650,"gmtCreate":1635721442572,"gmtModify":1635721442844,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"So should we just leave it a side?&nbsp;","listText":"So should we just leave it a side?&nbsp;","text":"So should we just leave it a side?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/849074650","repostId":"840649554","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":840649554,"gmtCreate":1635645666702,"gmtModify":1635645666987,"author":{"id":"3575290973507485","authorId":"3575290973507485","name":"Rookie22","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c6852efd5f87d9ecf7965e213c38ac97","crmLevel":5,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3575290973507485","idStr":"3575290973507485"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Hope next week better .&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>Hope next week better .&nbsp;","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$Hope next week better .","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d1901d073561f6488f2f24f49ec8c23e","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840649554","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3045,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840448310,"gmtCreate":1635679428779,"gmtModify":1635679429052,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840448310","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3347,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840610698,"gmtCreate":1635642004872,"gmtModify":1635642005108,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840610698","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":840100959,"gmtCreate":1635599686124,"gmtModify":1635599686400,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/840100959","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"36984908995200","idStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3062,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857014237,"gmtCreate":1635494699734,"gmtModify":1635494700574,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b504835db915bd6b1ddffdbac9a535f","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857014237","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2461,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":857014186,"gmtCreate":1635494680748,"gmtModify":1635494681596,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOFV\">$Hall of Fame Resort &amp; Entertainment(HOFV)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HOFV\">$Hall of Fame Resort &amp; Entertainment(HOFV)$</a>😭","text":"$Hall of Fame Resort & Entertainment(HOFV)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/13ec462443218b4253a7a9cd81e4e38a","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/857014186","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1119,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":823554433,"gmtCreate":1633651065745,"gmtModify":1633651066622,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Buy?&nbsp;","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823554433","repostId":"823592192","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":823592192,"gmtCreate":1633647272763,"gmtModify":1633647273928,"author":{"id":"3577965120664925","authorId":"3577965120664925","name":"SR050321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad8f48d49f7392730c39c441b79e8f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3577965120664925","idStr":"3577965120664925"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$New Oriental Education &amp; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>中概股盘前多数下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 9)&nbsp;Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月9日）中概股盘前交易多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cc6e1e421893d8bebaea0dc552bf76\" tg-width=\"279\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176538965","content_text":"(Sept 9) Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880448660,"gmtCreate":1631076118350,"gmtModify":1631890400930,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","listText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","text":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880448660","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815315800,"gmtCreate":1630643568900,"gmtModify":1631890400929,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Will only know by then🤔","listText":"Will only know by then🤔","text":"Will only know by then🤔","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815315800","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>2022年数万亿刺激用完会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款忍耐即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022年股市盈利预期可能太高了。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报命题。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者萨姆·科瓦奇一起分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府已经转向前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/驱逐暂停、PPP和提高失业福利。到目前为止，这一努力似乎是成功的，尽管批评者指出，这导致了通货膨胀的显著上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远保持3万亿美元的赤字，至少在每个人都没有通过高于其收入的消费者价格来隐性支付赤字的情况下。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，通过刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自身生产力而不是临时转移支付来运行时会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激措施，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入记录（2021年每股收入在200美元至205美元之间，而2019年的纪录为163美元）。此外，华尔街分析师预计标普500 2022年每股收益约为215美元，这将再创历史新高。当你计算生产率和经济产出的数字时，情况就不那么好了，这有助于解释为什么现在商品和服务如此短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能反映企业在中期内的收入（剔除消费者支出临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收入数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这有大约50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多轻松赚钱的投资者涌入低信心、高势头的股票，取消刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合平衡造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是同伴<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管住在德克萨斯州郊区，与我相隔半个地球，但我和萨姆对市场的看法却出奇地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>在美联储对疫情做出反应的头几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早取消刺激措施和通胀失控风险之间取得平衡绝非易事。政府回顾了之前的崩盘，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是“暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但是任何学过经济学101的人都知道，通货膨胀是自我驱动的。起初，公司是反动的，但后来它们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔(HRL)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了大量定价行动来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，并可能采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉(CAG)的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的最初通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们还将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度不会出现食品通胀。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比数据，这继续导致整体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食品、交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以提供学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激不可能永远持续下去。由于达美航空正在减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消退时会发生什么？这就是我们将在本文的其余部分中讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/取消抵押品赎回权</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的驱逐禁令。根据我的最新统计，目前约有150万家庭处于延期计划中（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国的抵押贷款数量约为5000万。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠付款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终出售，收集他们的股权，并搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款为负资产，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在的情况并非如此——我不认为取消抵押品赎回权会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，一年大约有600-700万套房屋被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月的时间内出售，这对于那些为购买房屋短缺而苦苦挣扎的人和那些无法支付所拥有房屋的人来说是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回到过去10年的平均4%左右，同时人们正在抛售他们一直忍住的房子，价格将会进一步下跌。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠额外的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会大幅缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠租金，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽视刺激措施放松的盈利预测也没有正确考虑到这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐禁令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该涌入住宅房地产投资信托基金。正如下面埃塞克斯地产(ESS)的MAD图表所示，已经从严重低估回到历史高估。我们之前建议投资者出售ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看该街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也会出现同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities(AVB)历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，似乎没有比卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)更高估的了，如果情绪发生变化，卡姆登房地产信托(CPT)很容易下跌1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经过去了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的：“买入谣言/卖出消息”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆将给某一部分人口的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期限延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人拥有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在30岁以下，这个群体的支出占其收入的比例高于50岁的退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是税后美元，这就像是反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们因不偿还贷款而获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费、投资加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站(GME)等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上阶层的专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事贸易并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配到较高的社会阶层（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是1.7多万亿美元的美国学生贷款，这些贷款在这21个月内通常没有被那些欠债的人偿还。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在高。2022年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最容易的刺激形式。由于大多数贷款都是联邦贷款，暂停付款不会对任何人造成足够的伤害来抱怨。由于施舍不是直接的，批评者不像对刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的资金，无论是股票还是加密货币，将在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时流出。这是否会产生足够的影响来推动市场值得怀疑，但随着很大一部分人必须恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算日。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人口来说将是严酷的。至少您仍然可以在AMC剧院(AMC)观看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激检查</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根——增强失业将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法领取失业救济金。联邦政府每周向失业者发放33亿美元，这比12个月前要少得多。当它消失时，它将成为抑制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普政府之前的付款外，一个收入中位数的4口之家在3月份还会看到5600美元的刺激支票。这些不会再出去了，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但目前的形式也将于12月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们可能会看到800万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终在1000万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在未来几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：接下来会发生什么？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊(AMZN)、Zoom Video(ZM)和Peloton(PTON)等公司的盈利大幅下滑表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于那些受益于暂时变化的公司来说，美好时光将永远持续下去。大流行。从宏观层面来看，这是否属实的可能性很大，而且取决于今年剩余时间的盈利结果，它最终可能会成为现实。虽然市场价格并不一定会因此大幅下跌，但很难否认市场的风险回报权衡在过去6-12个月中已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们看来，一个好的防御是投资于优质公司，而不是基本面中等的热门高动能股票，并从长远角度来看。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆-</i>充气列车已经离开车站了。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激已经启动了通胀周期，通胀将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。新冠疫情德尔塔变异毒株削弱了外出就餐或旅行等一些经济指标，但随着该国病例数已经达到峰值，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥度。更高的利率，甚至更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润一文不值的奇特方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望仔细审视他们的投资组合，并询问他们是否拥有被过度高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场中不起眼的部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像Intuit(INTU)这样的股票目前的交易价格是销售额的16倍？即使按照通常8-9倍的销售额来衡量，这也是异常高的。将其与该股票的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、经营规模大、估值相对便宜的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>前100名股票中我想到的是安进(AMGN)，该公司目前的收益率超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际（PM）、博通（AVGO）和摩根士丹利（MS.PK）相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格购买具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的取消将打击消费，从而影响盈利结果。估值过高的名字的重大失误会带来麻烦。负责任的做法是在股票估值过高时退出。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":526,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812599746,"gmtCreate":1630593249685,"gmtModify":1631890400933,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","listText":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","text":"Durian when ripe will drop, Apple need to pluck😅","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812599746","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>Pierre看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道自那以后有什么修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>空头攻击：苹果股价真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>对苹果股票给予卖出评级的两位华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位仍然认为AAPL股价可能会下跌40%。巨大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>九月的第一天，华尔街罕见的看空苹果股票之一（<b>AAPL</b>）最终让步，下调了卖出评级。剩下的最后一位仍将股价跌至90美元的目标价，损失风险约为40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>New Street的Pierre Ferragu是华尔街最后一位看空苹果的人，他对看涨期权下行的看法可能是正确的吗？这位苹果专家更仔细地观察了这场争论。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>Pierre看空论点的核心似乎是iPhone。这位分析师将即将推出的设备称为“12S周期”，认为苹果iPhone升级浪潮中最好的部分，即所谓的5G超级周期，已经成为过去。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street赞同这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期拉动了智能手机销量，导致未来需求出现缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的Wedbush分析师Dan Ives的观点完全相反，Dan Ives在接受《苹果专家》采访时表示：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估了这个超级周期的规模和长度。[……]在网络建成之前，5G在未来两三年内不会被完全接受。在中国（5G基础设施更加领先），iPhone 12，尤其是较大的Pro版本，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu先生仍然在iPhone上，早在4月份就提出了他对2022年的预期（我不知道自那以后有什么修改）。他认为iPhone出货量将达到1.9亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为1500亿美元——比COVID-19水平每年小幅增长5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>AAPL会下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。苹果股票的估值要达到每股90美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计2022财年每股收益将达到5.63美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的2021财年基本持平。因此，苹果公司要想股价下跌40%，明年的盈利就需要大幅低于市场预期，至少下降几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>从估值来看，AAPL目前的2021财年市盈率为27倍。假设未来的结果与共识匹配，这一市盈率需要降至16倍左右，AAPL股价才能跌至90美元。该股的预期市盈率多年来从未如此低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值即使不是几乎不可能，也不太可能再次达到每股90美元。在我看来，更合理的是，在AAPL在过去六个月内上涨了25%之后，New Street目前的股价目标已经过时了。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，看到华尔街最后一次看空苹果公司最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在与他当前的价格目标相关的方面，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":482,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":816865846,"gmtCreate":1630488257385,"gmtModify":1631890400935,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"But didn't&nbsp;last[捂脸]&nbsp;","listText":"But didn't&nbsp;last[捂脸]&nbsp;","text":"But didn't last[捂脸]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/816865846","repostId":"2164974896","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2164974896","kind":"highlight","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1630485420,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2164974896?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-01 16:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨2.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2164974896","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading.\n\nLi Auto Inc. announced that the Company delivered 9,","content":"<p>Li Auto&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨2.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5a8ce4f2ac5cf0a6d10f2a49585963\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车宣布，该公司在2021年8月交付了9,433辆Li One，同比增长248.0%，环比增长9.8%，再次打破了该公司的月度交付纪录。2021年前8个月的总交付量和理想ONE的累计交付量分别达到48,176辆和81,773辆。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月31日，该公司在69个城市拥有114家零售店，并在143个城市拥有194家服务中心以及理想汽车授权的车身和喷漆店。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨2.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨2.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-01 16:37</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Li Auto&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;2.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车股价在盘前交易中上涨2.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd5a8ce4f2ac5cf0a6d10f2a49585963\" tg-width=\"892\" tg-height=\"635\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Li Auto Inc.&nbsp;announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.</p><p><blockquote>理想汽车宣布，该公司在2021年8月交付了9,433辆Li One，同比增长248.0%，环比增长9.8%，再次打破了该公司的月度交付纪录。2021年前8个月的总交付量和理想ONE的累计交付量分别达到48,176辆和81,773辆。</blockquote></p><p> As of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.</p><p><blockquote>截至2021年8月31日，该公司在69个城市拥有114家零售店，并在143个城市拥有194家服务中心以及理想汽车授权的车身和喷漆店。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","CRCT":"Cricut, Inc.","TERN":"Terns Pharmaceuticals, Inc.","LI":"理想汽车"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2164974896","content_text":"Li Auto shares rose 2.4% in premarket trading.\n\nLi Auto Inc. announced that the Company delivered 9,433 Li ONEs in August 2021, increasing 248.0% year over year and 9.8% month over month, breaking the Company’s monthly delivery record again. Total deliveries in the first eight months of 2021 and cumulative deliveries of Li ONEs reached 48,176 and 81,773 respectively.\nAs of August 31, 2021, the Company had 114 retail stores in 69 cities, as well as 194 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 143 cities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"02015":0.9,"CRCT":0.9,"TERN":0.9,"LI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":999,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":811638773,"gmtCreate":1630315244092,"gmtModify":1704958293445,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good news?&nbsp;","listText":"Good news?&nbsp;","text":"Good news?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/811638773","repostId":"1188489761","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1188489761","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630314512,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1188489761?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-30 17:08","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"Li Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布未经审计的2021年第二季度财务业绩</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1188489761","media":"GlobeNewswire","summary":"BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021  -- Li Auto Inc.  , an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2021.Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021. Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021. Vehicle sales were RMB4.90 billion  in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increa","content":"<p>BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June&nbsp;30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>中国北京，2021年8月30日（环球通讯社）——中国新能源汽车市场的创新者理想汽车公司（“理想汽车”或“公司”）（纳斯达克：LI；香港交易所：2015）今天公布了截至2021年6月30日的季度未经审计的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>2021年第二季度经营要点</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.</li> </ul> <table></table> <ul>  <li>As of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.</li> </ul> <b><u>Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年第二季度，理想ONE的交付量为17,575辆，同比增长166.1%。</li></ul><table></table><ul><li>截至2021年6月30日，公司拥有97家零售店，覆盖64个城市，167家服务中心以及理想汽车授权的车身和喷漆店在127个城市运营。</li></ul><b><u>2021年第二季度财务摘要</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Vehicle sales</b>&nbsp;were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Vehicle margin2</b>was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross profit</b>&nbsp;was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross margin</b>&nbsp;was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Loss from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP loss from operations3</b>was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Net loss</b>&nbsp;was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP net loss3</b>was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Operating cash flow</b>&nbsp;was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Free cash flow4</b>&nbsp;was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> Li&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>车辆销售</b>2021年第二季度为人民币49.0亿元（7.594亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币34.6亿元增长41.6%。</li><li><b>车辆余量2</b>2021年第二季度为18.7%，而2021年第一季度为16.9%。</li><li><b>总收入</b>2021年第二季度为人民币50.4亿元（7.804亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币35.8亿元增长40.9%。</li><li><b>毛利</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.528亿元（1.476亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币6.167亿元增长54.5%。</li><li><b>毛利率</b>2021年第二季度为18.9%，而2021年第一季度为17.3%。</li></ul><ul><li><b>经营亏损</b>2021年第二季度为人民币5.359亿元（8300万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币4.077亿元增长31.4%。<b>非公认会计准则运营损失3</b>2021年第二季度为人民币3.655亿元（5660万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币2.248亿元增长62.6%。</li><li><b>净亏损</b>2021年第二季度净亏损为人民币2.355亿元（3650万美元），较2021年第一季度净亏损人民币3.6亿元下降34.6%。<b>非公认会计准则净亏损3</b>2021年第二季度净亏损为人民币6510万元（1010万美元），而2021年第一季度净亏损为人民币1.770亿元。</li><li><b>经营现金流量</b>2021年第二季度为人民币14.076亿元（2.180亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币9.263亿元增长52.0%。</li><li><b>自由现金流4</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.821亿元（1.521亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币5.702亿元增长72.2%。</li></ul>Li股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb03a526571e03322239f50429dc71f\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1573717531661","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Li Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布未经审计的2021年第二季度财务业绩</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nLi Auto Inc. Announces Unaudited Second Quarter 2021 Financial Results<blockquote>理想汽车公司公布未经审计的2021年第二季度财务业绩</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">GlobeNewswire</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-30 17:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June&nbsp;30, 2021.</p><p><blockquote>中国北京，2021年8月30日（环球通讯社）——中国新能源汽车市场的创新者理想汽车公司（“理想汽车”或“公司”）（纳斯达克：LI；香港交易所：2015）今天公布了截至2021年6月30日的季度未经审计的财务业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b><u>Operating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><b><u>2021年第二季度经营要点</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Deliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.</li> </ul> <table></table> <ul>  <li>As of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.</li> </ul> <b><u>Financial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021</u></b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年第二季度，理想ONE的交付量为17,575辆，同比增长166.1%。</li></ul><table></table><ul><li>截至2021年6月30日，公司拥有97家零售店，覆盖64个城市，167家服务中心以及理想汽车授权的车身和喷漆店在127个城市运营。</li></ul><b><u>2021年第二季度财务摘要</u></b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Vehicle sales</b>&nbsp;were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Vehicle margin2</b>was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Total revenues</b>&nbsp;were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross profit</b>&nbsp;was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Gross margin</b>&nbsp;was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> <ul>  <li><b>Loss from operations</b>&nbsp;was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP loss from operations3</b>was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Net loss</b>&nbsp;was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.<b>Non-GAAP net loss3</b>was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Operating cash flow</b>&nbsp;was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li>  <li><b>Free cash flow4</b>&nbsp;was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.</li> </ul> Li&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;more&nbsp;than&nbsp;3%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>车辆销售</b>2021年第二季度为人民币49.0亿元（7.594亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币34.6亿元增长41.6%。</li><li><b>车辆余量2</b>2021年第二季度为18.7%，而2021年第一季度为16.9%。</li><li><b>总收入</b>2021年第二季度为人民币50.4亿元（7.804亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币35.8亿元增长40.9%。</li><li><b>毛利</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.528亿元（1.476亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币6.167亿元增长54.5%。</li><li><b>毛利率</b>2021年第二季度为18.9%，而2021年第一季度为17.3%。</li></ul><ul><li><b>经营亏损</b>2021年第二季度为人民币5.359亿元（8300万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币4.077亿元增长31.4%。<b>非公认会计准则运营损失3</b>2021年第二季度为人民币3.655亿元（5660万美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币2.248亿元增长62.6%。</li><li><b>净亏损</b>2021年第二季度净亏损为人民币2.355亿元（3650万美元），较2021年第一季度净亏损人民币3.6亿元下降34.6%。<b>非公认会计准则净亏损3</b>2021年第二季度净亏损为人民币6510万元（1010万美元），而2021年第一季度净亏损为人民币1.770亿元。</li><li><b>经营现金流量</b>2021年第二季度为人民币14.076亿元（2.180亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币9.263亿元增长52.0%。</li><li><b>自由现金流4</b>2021年第二季度为人民币9.821亿元（1.521亿美元），较2021年第一季度的人民币5.702亿元增长72.2%。</li></ul>Li股价在盘前交易中上涨超过3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ddb03a526571e03322239f50429dc71f\" tg-width=\"888\" tg-height=\"623\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/08/30/2288094/0/en/Li-Auto-Inc-Announces-Unaudited-Second-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results.html\">GlobeNewswire</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"02015":"理想汽车-W","LI":"理想汽车"},"source_url":"https://www.globenewswire.com/news-release/2021/08/30/2288094/0/en/Li-Auto-Inc-Announces-Unaudited-Second-Quarter-2021-Financial-Results.html","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1188489761","content_text":"BEIJING, China, Aug. 30, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Li Auto Inc. (\"Li Auto\" or the \"Company\") (Nasdaq: LI; HKEX: 2015), an innovator in China’s new energy vehicle market, today announced its unaudited financial results for the quarter ended June 30, 2021.\nOperating Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021\n\nDeliveries of Li ONEs were 17,575 vehicles in the second quarter of 2021, representing a 166.1% year-over-year increase.\n\n\n\nAs of June 30, 2021, the Company had 97 retail stores covering 64 cities and 167 servicing centers and Li Auto-authorized body and paint shops operating in 127 cities.\n\nFinancial Highlights for the Second Quarter of 2021\n\nVehicle sales were RMB4.90 billion (US$759.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 41.6% from RMB3.46 billion in the first quarter of 2021.\nVehicle margin2was 18.7% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 16.9% in the first quarter of 2021.\nTotal revenues were RMB5.04 billion (US$780.4 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 40.9% from RMB3.58 billion in the first quarter of 2021.\nGross profit was RMB952.8 million (US$147.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 54.5% from RMB616.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nGross margin was 18.9% in the second quarter of 2021, compared with 17.3% in the first quarter of 2021.\n\n\nLoss from operations was RMB535.9 million (US$83.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 31.4% from RMB407.7 million in the first quarter of 2021.Non-GAAP loss from operations3was RMB365.5 million (US$56.6 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 62.6% from RMB224.8 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nNet loss was RMB235.5 million (US$36.5 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing a decrease of 34.6% from RMB360.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.Non-GAAP net loss3was RMB65.1 million (US$10.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, compared with RMB177.0 million net loss in the first quarter of 2021.\nOperating cash flow was RMB1,407.6 million (US$218.0 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 52.0% from RMB926.3 million in the first quarter of 2021.\nFree cash flow4 was RMB982.1 million (US$152.1 million) in the second quarter of 2021, representing an increase of 72.2% from RMB570.2 million in the first quarter of 2021.\n\nLi shares rose more than 3% in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LI":0.9,"02015":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":499,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832749437,"gmtCreate":1629679373529,"gmtModify":1631890400939,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832749437","repostId":"1115632642","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":175692364,"gmtCreate":1627027743058,"gmtModify":1631890400943,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3581711485322302","idStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Roller coaster stock😞","listText":"Roller coaster stock😞","text":"Roller coaster stock😞","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/175692364","repostId":"1112567098","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":632,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":841506858,"gmtCreate":1635921007650,"gmtModify":1635921007923,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Share","listText":"Share","text":"Share","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":15,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/841506858","repostId":"850756569","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":850756569,"gmtCreate":1634631211448,"gmtModify":1635853120757,"author":{"id":"36984908995200","authorId":"36984908995200","name":"小虎活动","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9e396d03155923b283948d2dec9191f8","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"36984908995200","authorIdStr":"36984908995200"},"themes":[],"title":"[Halloween Game] Trade or Treat!","htmlText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/850756569","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3611,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":694074922,"gmtCreate":1641774535668,"gmtModify":1641774536283,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yup","listText":"Yup","text":"Yup","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":13,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/694074922","repostId":"1198290127","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198290127","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1641702682,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1198290127?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2022-01-09 12:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198290127","media":"TheStreet","summary":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready","content":"<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快恢复里程碑并在2022年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值曾一度接近3万亿美元，但很快跌破2.9万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩的反应现在应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股价能否最终在2022年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的预期？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会占上风吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在11月底至12月初期间恶性攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持“AAPL$3T”。例如，至少自去年第三季度我们的谈话以来，Wedbush的Dan Ives一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在11月份将目标价上调至每股200美元，而摩根大通研究团队预计苹果股票的市值将在未来12个月内达到3.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup的吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股250美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年里获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的动力。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：熊市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在上述乐观预期，主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场在进入2022年时仍保持警惕。眼下的恶魔似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这应该会导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然AAPL不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近30倍的预期市盈率和仅温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累2022年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的优秀股票。在以卓越运营为驱动力的首席执行官（和前首席运营官）的领导下，该公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的赞赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022年前几周或几个月的设置对我来说看起来很有挑战性。苹果股价在2020年无情攀升，去年再次攀升。得益于大流行推动的科技设备需求激增以及系统中充裕的流动性，AAPL在2019年至2021年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报率之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够而且很可能支持公司未来许多年的财务业绩，但我认为苹果公司的股票早就应该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至3万亿美元以上，并最终进一步走高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生不太有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Can Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCan Apple Stock Reclaim $3 Trillion And Thrive In 2022?<blockquote>苹果股价能否在2022年收回3万亿美元并蓬勃发展？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">TheStreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2022-01-09 12:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><head></head><body>A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?</p><p><blockquote><html><head></head><body>到目前为止，3万亿美元的市值已被证明是苹果股票似乎尚未准备好突破的上限。股价能否很快恢复里程碑并在2022年走高？</body></html></blockquote></p><p>Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.</p><p><blockquote>最近，苹果股票的市值曾一度接近3万亿美元，但很快跌破2.9万亿美元——因为大盘对货币紧缩的反应现在应该比之前预期的更快。</blockquote></p><p>Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?</p><p><blockquote>这家库比蒂诺公司的股价能否最终在2022年找到北上之路，并满足华尔街众多多头的预期？或者，在利率上升和通胀挥之不去的一年里，看跌情绪会占上风吗？</blockquote></p><p><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1f77cd919bf55f9c7b79f631b0255910\" tg-width=\"1240\" tg-height=\"697\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"/><span>Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图1：加利福尼亚州库比蒂诺的苹果公园。</span></p></blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bull case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：牛市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>As Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.</p><p><blockquote>随着苹果股价在11月底至12月初期间恶性攀升，许多华尔街专家纷纷支持“AAPL$3T”。例如，至少自去年第三季度我们的谈话以来，Wedbush的Dan Ives一直在谈论市值里程碑。</blockquote></p><p>But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>但其他分析师最近也加入了看涨行列。摩根士丹利在11月份将目标价上调至每股200美元，而摩根大通研究团队预计苹果股票的市值将在未来12个月内达到3.5万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.</p><p><blockquote>最直言不讳的乐观主义者之一来自买方。Loup的吉恩·蒙斯特(Gene Munster)认为，他之前的目标价很快就过时了，现在每股250美元似乎更合理。他认为，元宇宙的多年机会将在新的一年里获得投资者的赞赏，这应该会重新点燃该股在2021年最后几周失去的动力。</blockquote></p><p><b>AAPL: the bear case</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果公司：熊市案例</b></blockquote></p><p>Despite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在上述乐观预期，主要受到公司特定因素的支持，但市场在进入2022年时仍保持警惕。眼下的恶魔似乎是美联储对接近充分就业和粘性通胀的预期反应，这应该会导致未来几个月利率上升。</blockquote></p><p>I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.</p><p><blockquote>我最近解释了货币供应收紧如何给市盈率相对较高的股票带来麻烦。虽然AAPL不是特斯拉或Rivian，但该股近30倍的预期市盈率和仅温和的盈利增长预期可能会拖累2022年的股价，因为投资者正在寻找价值股和周期性股票的更好交易。</blockquote></p><p><b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p>I continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.</p><p><blockquote>我仍然认为苹果是一只值得长期购买和持有的优秀股票。在以卓越运营为驱动力的首席执行官（和前首席运营官）的领导下，该公司似乎得到了很好的管理。更好的是，对苹果产品和服务的需求以及消费者对该品牌的赞赏似乎处于或接近历史最高水平。</blockquote></p><p>That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.</p><p><blockquote>也就是说，2022年前几周或几个月的设置对我来说看起来很有挑战性。苹果股价在2020年无情攀升，去年再次攀升。得益于大流行推动的科技设备需求激增以及系统中充裕的流动性，AAPL在2019年至2021年间创下了有史以来最好的三年回报率之一。</blockquote></p><p>As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.</p><p><blockquote>尽管元宇宙和自动驾驶汽车能够而且很可能支持公司未来许多年的财务业绩，但我认为苹果公司的股票早就应该喘口气了。虽然股价可能会回升至3万亿美元以上，并最终进一步走高，但我对这种反弹会在不久的将来发生不太有信心。</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022\">TheStreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/can-apple-stock-reclaim-3-trillion-and-thrive-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198290127","content_text":"A market cap of $3 trillion has, so far, proven to be a ceiling that Apple stock does not seem ready to break through yet. Can shares reclaim the milestone soon and head higher in 2022?Recently, Apple stock flirted with $3 trillion in market cap, but quickly dipped below $2.9 trillion — as the broad market reacted to monetary tightening that should now happen more rapidly than previously expected.Can shares of the Cupertino company finally find its way north in 2022 and meet the expectations of so many bulls on Wall Street? Or will bearishness take over during a year of rising interest rates and lingering inflation?Figure 1: Apple Park in Cupertino, CA.AAPL: the bull caseAs Apple stock climbed viciously between late November and early December, many Wall Street experts piled on in support of “AAPL $3T”. Wedbush’s Dan Ives, for example, has been talking about the market cap milestone since our conversation in Q3 of last year, at least.But other analysts have also hopped on the bullish bandwagon recently. Morgan Stanley upped its price target to $200 per share in November, while the JPMorgan research team saw Apple stock heading to $3.5 trillion in market cap over the next 12 months.One of the most vocal optimists came from the buy side. Loup’s Gene Munster thought that his previous price target had quickly become stale, and that $250 per share now seemed more reasonable. In his opinion, the multi-year opportunity in the metaverse will gain investor appreciation in the new year, which should reignite momentum that the stock had lost in the last few weeks of 2021.AAPL: the bear caseDespite the upbeat expectations described above, mostly supported by company-specific factors, the market rolled into 2022 with its guard up. The boogieman of the moment seems to be the Federal Reserve’s anticipated reaction to near-full employment and sticky inflation, which should lead to higher interest rates in the next several months.I have recently explained how tighter money supply can spell trouble for stocks that trade for relatively high multiples. While AAPL is no Tesla or Rivian, the stock’s forward P/E of nearly 30 times and only modest earnings growth expectations could be a drag for share price in 2022, as investors look for better deals in value and cyclical stocks.The Apple Maven’s takeI continue to think that Apple is a great stock to buy and hold for the long term. Under the leadership of a CEO (and former COO) that is driven by operational excellence, the company seems to be in very good hands. Better yet, demand for Apple’s products and services, as well as consumer appreciation for the brand, seem to be at or near an all-time high.That said, the setup for the first few weeks or months of 2022 looks challenging to me. Apple stock climbed relentlessly in 2020, and then again last year. Aided by a spike in pandemic-driven demand for tech devices and lavish liquidity in the system, AAPL recorded one of its best three years of returns ever between 2019 and 2021.As much as the metaverse and autonomous vehicles can and likely will support the company’s financial results over the next many years, I think that AAPL stock is overdue for a breather. While shares will likely climb back above $3 trillion and head much higher from there eventually, I am not so confident that this rally will happen in the immediate future.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3663,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":151506450,"gmtCreate":1625097202170,"gmtModify":1631893487939,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Want to know also?&nbsp;","listText":"Want to know also?&nbsp;","text":"Want to know also?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":10,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151506450","repostId":"1121473384","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121473384","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625067394,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1121473384?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-30 23:36","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121473384","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIOwere moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $5","content":"<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy NIO Stock Is Moving Higher Today<blockquote>为什么蔚来股价今天走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-30 23:36</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.</p><p><blockquote>在蔚来公布6月份销售报告之前，华尔街的一份看涨报告提高了人们的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.</p><p><blockquote>中国电动汽车制造商的股票<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：蔚来）周三早盘走高，此前一位华尔街分析师在一份看涨报告中上调了该行对该股的目标价。</blockquote></p><p> As of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午11点35分，蔚来美国存托股票较周二收盘价上涨约5.9%。</blockquote></p><p> In a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.</p><p><blockquote>在周二下午发布的一份报告中。花旗银行分析师Jeff Chung将该行对蔚来的目标股价从58.30美元上调至72美元，同时重申了此前对该股的买入评级。</blockquote></p><p> Chung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target&nbsp;price-to-earnings multiple&nbsp;for NIO's shares.</p><p><blockquote>Chung写道，他预计蔚来6月份将报告“强劲的出货量”，他认为随后将在2021年第三和第四季度实现环比增长。他现在预计蔚来将在2021年交付93,000辆汽车，高于他之前估计的90,000辆，并上调了对2022年和2024年的预测，同时还提高了蔚来股票的目标市盈率。</blockquote></p><p> NIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of&nbsp;between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles&nbsp;for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had&nbsp;delivered 13,183 vehicles&nbsp;despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来通常会在月底后不久发布每月交付总量，这意味着我们最早可以在周四上午看到蔚来6月份的业绩。该公司本月早些时候重申了评级第二季度总交付量为21,000至22,000辆汽车的指引。尽管计算机芯片短缺导致生产中断，截至5月底，该公司仍交付了13,183辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p> Will NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来的表现会超过自己的指导吗？我认为这是可能的，但考虑到持续的芯片短缺问题，可能性不大。然而，如果其6月份的业绩使其第二季度的总额处于指导范围的高端，我不会感到惊讶。一两天后我们就会知道了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NIO":"蔚来"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121473384","content_text":"A bullish note from Wall Street is raising expectations ahead of NIO's June sales report.\nShares of Chinese electric-vehicle maker NIO(NYSE:NIO)were moving higher in early trading on Wednesday, after a Wall Street analyst raised his bank's price target for the shares in a bullish note.\nAs of 11:35 a.m. EDT, NIO's American depositary shares were up about 5.9% from Tuesday's closing price.\nIn a note released on Tuesday afternoon. Citibank analyst Jeff Chung raised the bank's price target on NIO to $72, from $58.30, while reiterating his previous buy rating on the shares.\nChung wrote that he expects NIO to report \"robust shipment volume\" for June, which he thinks will be followed by sequential quarter-over-quarter growth in the third and fourth quarters of 2021. He now sees NIO delivering 93,000 vehicles in 2021, up from his earlier estimate of 90,000, and has raised his forecasts for 2022 and 2024 while also increasing his target price-to-earnings multiple for NIO's shares.\nNIO typically releases its monthly delivery totals shortly after month-end, meaning we could see NIO's results for June as soon as Thursday morning. The company's guidance, which it reiterated earlier this month, calls for a delivery total of between 21,000 and 22,000 vehicles for the second quarter. Through the end of May, it had delivered 13,183 vehicles despite production disruptions caused by shortages of computer chips.\nWill NIO outperform its own guidance? I think it's possible but unlikely, given the continued chip-shortage issues. I won't be surprised, however, if its June result puts its second-quarter total at the high end of its guidance range. We'll find out in a day or two.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":406,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":137179708,"gmtCreate":1622333386104,"gmtModify":1634102322587,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n comments please&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":11,"repostSize":1,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/137179708","repostId":"2138948877","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":436,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133769543,"gmtCreate":1621812111482,"gmtModify":1634186519372,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n comments please!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":12,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133769543","repostId":"2137827351","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":132112261,"gmtCreate":1622075564153,"gmtModify":1634184124153,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/132112261","repostId":"2138149518","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":515,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178349210,"gmtCreate":1626789427530,"gmtModify":1631890400950,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TIGR\">$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$</a>😭","text":"$Tiger Brokers(TIGR)$😭","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7730c51e47df769bde9ae972bc75132","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":12,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178349210","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1225,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[{"author":{"id":"4088843020370800","authorId":"4088843020370800","name":"cc52044","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d7ba6683a840b854ca16f8a5ff550aa","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"idStr":"4088843020370800","authorIdStr":"4088843020370800"},"content":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]","text":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]","html":"谁让你买那么高！ [生气] [生气]"}],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160520181,"gmtCreate":1623802382243,"gmtModify":1634028038811,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments n response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":10,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160520181","repostId":"2143680537","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":418,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":117919313,"gmtCreate":1623113065032,"gmtModify":1634036855790,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/117919313","repostId":"1140821913","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":301,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":116000017,"gmtCreate":1622764288139,"gmtModify":1634098324075,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/116000017","repostId":"1152443659","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152443659","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1622763716,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1152443659?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-04 07:41","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"DocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152443659","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"DocuSign Inc.DOCU shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement compan","content":"<p>DocuSign Inc.DOCU&nbsp;shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.DOCU股价在周四的延长交易中上涨，此前这家数字协议公司的季度业绩和前景超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p>DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ee3c53b3c742759847ae47899cb7d\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>DocuSign股价盘后飙升6%，常规交易时段下跌2.9%，收于194.75美元。该公司报告第一季度亏损840万美元，即每股亏损4美分，而去年同期亏损4780万美元，即每股亏损26美分。不包括股票薪酬费用和其他项目的调整后收益为每股44美分，而去年同期为每股12美分。收入从去年同期的2.97亿美元增至4.691亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测每股28美分，营收为4.376亿美元。DocuSign预计第二季度营收为4.79亿美元至4.85亿美元，全年营收为20.3亿美元至20.4亿美元。分析师此前预计第二季度营收为4.742亿美元，全年营收为19.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>DocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nDocuSign stock pops on earnings, outlook beat<blockquote>DocuSign股价因盈利和前景超出预期而上涨</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-06-04 07:41</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>DocuSign Inc.DOCU&nbsp;shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.</p><p><blockquote>DocuSign Inc.DOCU股价在周四的延长交易中上涨，此前这家数字协议公司的季度业绩和前景超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p>DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/578ee3c53b3c742759847ae47899cb7d\" tg-width=\"690\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a2d3573459a411aad99768fbedb2c53a\" tg-width=\"1037\" tg-height=\"687\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote>DocuSign股价盘后飙升6%，常规交易时段下跌2.9%，收于194.75美元。该公司报告第一季度亏损840万美元，即每股亏损4美分，而去年同期亏损4780万美元，即每股亏损26美分。不包括股票薪酬费用和其他项目的调整后收益为每股44美分，而去年同期为每股12美分。收入从去年同期的2.97亿美元增至4.691亿美元。</blockquote></p><p>Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.</p><p><blockquote>FactSet调查的分析师此前预测每股28美分，营收为4.376亿美元。DocuSign预计第二季度营收为4.79亿美元至4.85亿美元，全年营收为20.3亿美元至20.4亿美元。分析师此前预计第二季度营收为4.742亿美元，全年营收为19.9亿美元。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DOCU":"Docusign"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152443659","content_text":"DocuSign Inc.DOCU shares rallied in the extended session Thursday after the digital agreement company’s quarterly results and outlook surpassed Wall Street expectations.DocuSign shares surged 6% after hours, following a 2.9% decline in the regular session to close at $194.75.The company reported a first-quarter loss of $8.4 million, or 4 cents a share, compared with $47.8 million, or 26 cents a share, in the year-ago period. Adjusted earnings, which exclude stock-based compensation expenses and other items, were 44 cents a share, compared with 12 cents a share in the year-ago period. Revenue rose to $469.1 million from $297 million in the year-ago quarter.Analysts surveyed by FactSet had forecast 28 cents a share on revenue of $437.6 million. DocuSign forecast revenue of $479 million to $485 million for the second quarter, and $2.03 billion to $2.04 billion for the year. Analysts had estimated revenue of $474.2 million for the second quarter, and revenue of $1.99 billion for the year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"DOCU":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":322,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":195402716,"gmtCreate":1621305241735,"gmtModify":1634192594079,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n response pls!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n response pls!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n response pls!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":9,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/195402716","repostId":"2136295438","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":503,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880448660,"gmtCreate":1631076118350,"gmtModify":1631890400930,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","listText":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","text":"Sell all my shares now even at a loss and wait till year end😜","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":6,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880448660","repostId":"2165368421","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2165368421","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1631060195,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2165368421?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 08:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2165368421","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management","content":"<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks may fall 15% by year-end, warns Morgan Stanley. Here are some portfolio moves investors might consider.<blockquote>摩根士丹利警告称，到年底，股市可能会下跌15%。以下是投资者可能考虑的一些投资组合变动。</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 08:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席信息官表示，“市场的定价是完美和脆弱的”</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a01bf576907b812090131b9f0a817516\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"467\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Investors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司表示，投资者似乎对美联储抱有“信心”。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利对经济的乐观看法并没有阻止其对美国股市即将出现调整的警告。</blockquote></p><p> \"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利财富管理公司首席投资官丽莎·沙莱特(Lisa Shalett)在一份报告中表示：“问题在于，市场定价完美且脆弱，特别是自2020年3月低点以来，调整幅度从未超过10%。”周二。她写道，该银行全球投资委员会预计年底前股市将回调10%至15%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"</p><p><blockquote>“美国主要股指在8月和9月头几天的强势，面对令人担忧的事态发展，每天都创下更多连续新高，但本着‘爬上担忧之墙’的精神，这不再具有建设性。””沙莱特说。她表示，“考虑在指数基金中获利了结”，因为股票基准已经排除了“COVID-19住院人数死灰复燃、消费者信心暴跌、利率上升和地缘政治重大转变”的影响。</blockquote></p><p> She suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"</p><p><blockquote>她建议重新平衡投资组合，转向“优质周期性股票”，特别是金融行业的股票，同时寻求“消费服务、必需消费品和医疗保健领域持续的股息支付者”。</blockquote></p><p> Megatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利的报告显示，大型科技股一直无视股票通常在周期中期进行的转型，尽管市场其他领域（例如周期性股票和小盘股）下跌，但它们的市盈率仍然很高。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a3a39edba8046c13b53de255d846cd3a\" tg-width=\"699\" tg-height=\"435\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>A Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>摩根士丹利财富管理公司2021年9月7日的报告。</span></p></blockquote></p><p> \"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"</p><p><blockquote>“随着商业和市场周期经历衰退、复苏、修复和扩张，利率通常会开始正常化，市盈率(P/E)会压缩，因为股票上涨越来越多地受到利润增长而不是政策制定者的推动，”沙莱特写道。但股市中占主导地位的大型科技领导者并没有遵循这一“剧本”。</blockquote></p><p> Although Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.</p><p><blockquote>根据她的报告，尽管摩根士丹利仍然“对经济前景持乐观态度”，沙莱特引用了“资本支出和劳动力市场走强的稳健前景”，但该行全球投资委员会越来越担心市场估值。</blockquote></p><p> The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&amp;P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&amp;P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.</p><p><blockquote>随着道琼斯工业平均指数和美国股市标普500基准指数回落，以科技股为主的纳斯达克综合指数周二收于另一个历史收盘高点。衡量美国股市蓝筹股的道琼斯指数和科技股头重脚轻的标普500指数仍接近近期峰值。</blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，根据道琼斯市场数据，10年期国债收益率周二上涨近5个基点至1.37%，为7月13日以来的最高水平。债券收益率和价格走势相反。</blockquote></p><p> \"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"</p><p><blockquote>Shalett表示：“实际利率最终走高，不仅因为美联储预计将在今年年底正式开始缩减规模，而且随着全球经济反弹以及‘避险’外国流动性从定价过高的美国国债中流出。”“更高的利率应该会给市盈率带来压力，市盈率已经远高于历史正常水平，特别是考虑到当前衡量和实现的通胀水平。”</blockquote></p><p> Investors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.</p><p><blockquote>沙利特表示，投资者似乎对美联储“充满信心”，通过其“巧妙细致入微的沟通”来实现其政策目标。她写道，美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔“似乎让投资者相信，他和他的政策制定同事有能力在不犯错误的情况下微妙地穿针引线”。</blockquote></p><p> For example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.</p><p><blockquote>例如，在央行在8月底怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上重申其观点后，市场似乎受到了鼓舞，即通胀是暂时的，最终缩减资产购买并不是政策收紧，并且“实际加息”沙利特表示，这与他们新的‘最大’就业标准的非常高的标准有关。</blockquote></p><p> \"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"</p><p><blockquote>“股票和债券投资者都欢呼雀跃，”她说，“让资产泡沫和金融稳定担忧见鬼去吧。”</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stocks-may-fall-15-by-year-end-warns-morgan-stanley-here-are-some-portfolio-moves-investors-might-consider-11631057723?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"2165368421","content_text":"'Markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable,' says the CIO of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management\nInvestors appear to be putting their 'faith' in the Federal Reserve, says Morgan Stanley Wealth Management.\nMorgan Stanley's optimistic view of the economy isn't keeping it from warning about a looming correction in the U.S. stock market.\n\"The issue is that the markets are priced for perfection and vulnerable, especially since there hasn't been a correction greater than 10% since the March 2020 low,\" said Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer of Morgan Stanley Wealth Management, in a note Tuesday. The bank's global investment committee expects a stock-market pullback of 10% to 15% before the end of the year, she wrote.\n\"The strength of major U.S. equity indexes during August and the first few days of September, pushing to yet more daily and consecutive new highs in the face of concerning developments, is no longer constructive in the spirit of 'climbing a wall of worry,'\" said Shalett. \"Consider taking profits in index funds,\" she said, as stock benchmarks have dismissed \"resurgent COVID-19 hospitalizations, plummeting consumer confidence, higher interest rates and significant geopolitical shifts.\"\nShe suggested rebalancing investment portfolios toward \"high-quality cyclicals,\" particularly stocks in the financial sector, while seeking \"consistent dividend-payers in consumer services, consumer staples and health care.\"\nMegatech stocks have been defying the transition that stocks typically make mid-cycle, with their price-to-earnings ratios remaining elevated despite declining in other areas of the market, such as cyclical and small-cap stocks, the Morgan Stanley report shows.\nA Morgan Stanley Wealth Management note from Sept. 7, 2021.\n\"As business and market cycles move through recession, recovery, repair and on to expansion, interest rates typically begin to normalize and price/earnings (P/E) ratios compress as stock gains are increasingly powered by profit growth as opposed to policymakers,\" wrote Shalett. But dominant megacap tech leaders in the stock market have not followed that \"playbook.\"\nAlthough Morgan Stanley remains \"sanguine on the economic outlook,\" with Shalett citing \"solid prospects for capital expenditures and strengthening labor markets,\" the bank's global investment committee is increasingly worried about market valuations, according to her note.\nThe tech-laden Nasdaq Composite index ended Tuesday at another all-time closing high as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 benchmarks for U.S. stocks retreated. The Dow, a blue-chip gauge of the U.S. stock market, and the S&P 500, an index that is top-heavy with tech exposure, remain near their recent peaks.\nMeanwhile, the yield on the 10-year Treasury note rose almost 5 basis points Tuesday to 1.37%, the highest since July 13, according to Dow Jones Market data. Bond yields and prices move in opposite directions.\n\"Real interest rates are finally grinding higher not only because Fed tapering is expected to officially commence by the end of the year, but as global economies rebound and 'safe haven' foreign liquidity moves out of overpriced U.S. Treasuries,\" Shalett said. \"Higher interest rates should pressure price/earnings multiples, which are already well above historic norms, especially when taking into account current levels of measured and realized inflation.\"\nInvestors appear to be putting their \"faith\" in the Federal Reserve, with its \"masterfully nuanced communications,\" to achieve its policy goals, according to Shalett. Fed Chair Jerome Powell \"has seemingly convinced investors that he and his policymaking colleagues are capable of delicately threading the policy needle without making mistakes,\" she wrote.\nFor example, markets appeared encouraged after the central bank reiterated its view at the Jackson Hole, Wyo., economic policy symposium in late August that inflation is temporary, the eventual tapering of its asset purchases is not policy tightening, and that \"actual rate hikes are tied to the very high bar of their new criteria of 'maximum' employment,\" according to Shalett.\n\"Both stock and bond investors cheered,\" she said, \"leaving asset bubbles and financial stability concerns be damned.\"","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":120626201,"gmtCreate":1624322257203,"gmtModify":1634007878195,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/120626201","repostId":"1191349655","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":548,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163253898,"gmtCreate":1623887025214,"gmtModify":1634026527537,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163253898","repostId":"1148768572","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1148768572","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623822306,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1148768572?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-16 13:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1148768572","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce tradi","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%，占其毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock: Patient Investors Could Soon See $20 Again<blockquote>Wish股票：耐心的投资者很快就会再次看到20美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-16 13:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Wish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.</li>  <li>Wish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.</li>  <li>While accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.</li>  <li>I believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/983667978a1675a8b256d7b0478a876c\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"934\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>JuSun/iStock via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Wish(ContextLogic)仍然是电子商务交易中最被低估的资产之一，其远期EV与销售额之比仅为1.3倍。</li><li>Wish与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将进一步加速国际扩张和增长计划。</li><li>虽然很难找到有关其空头利息的准确数据，因为其大部分流通量仍被锁定，但我估计空头利息在30-40%之间。</li><li>我相信，包括高额营销支出和用户数量停滞在内的看跌论点已经在当前股价中根深蒂固。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>JuSun/iStock来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Overview</b></p><p><blockquote><b>概述</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic(WISH)对股东来说是一段疯狂的旅程，因为最近几周高波动性继续导致价格大幅波动。该电子商务平台最初于12月以每股20美元的价格上市，随后由于势头驱动的反弹，在2月份飙升至32美元的历史高点。尽管如此，自那以后，股价稳步暴跌，在6月份触及仅7美元的历史低点，但在零售交易部门的兴趣增加后，现在正在迅速复苏。在这里，该股因其高波动性、空头兴趣和巨大的上涨潜力而受到青睐。</blockquote></p><p> In this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.</p><p><blockquote>在这种情况下，我认为高空头兴趣越来越多地将股价推至公允价值以下，耐心的投资者可能很快就会再次看到20美元或更多，因为该公司正在应对物流挑战，并将很快恢复规模经济。在这方面，该电子商务平台具有独特的价值主张，并处于有利地位，可以在6万亿美元的电子商务行业中获得市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Digital Dollar Tree</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数字美元树</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.</p><p><blockquote>Wish作为一个电子商务平台受到了严厉批评，我几乎可以说，它作为中国商家第三方“直运”网站的形象让投资者迄今为止远离了该股。然而，这可能只是部分正确。从本质上讲，Wish通过低价（低质量）产品和缓慢的交付时间（可能导致长达一周的交付时间）扭转了亚马逊（纳斯达克：AMZN）的商业模式。这是因为Wish本身不处理运输，这就是为什么它可以提供这些超低价格，提供2美元加2美元运费的连帽衫。</blockquote></p><p> Frankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.</p><p><blockquote>坦率地说，Wish仍然依赖中国商家，占其产品目录的大部分。考虑到大多数商品都是在中国生产的，因为生产成本是世界上最低的之一，这并不奇怪。亚马逊或eBay（纳斯达克：eBay）上销售的大多数商品也是在中国生产的，尽管由于一日送达计划或更高的价格，它们获得了更高的认知度。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2bea733440e86851af57559c6a5fd6bd\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"363\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Now, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.</p><p><blockquote>现在，我将Wish视为数字美元树，在线购物者在这里发现他们想要而不是需要的商品。在这个过程中，客户对产品更有耐心，愿意等待更长时间才能到货。随着其平台越来越受欢迎，Wish正在努力解决这两个问题（质量和商家多元化）。在这里，它一直在投资物流以提供更快的交付，物流收入同比增长275%就证明了这一点。由于这些收入的利润率较低，其整体毛利率也相应下降。然而，一旦该领域实现规模经济，利润率增长应该会逆转并回落至70%。</blockquote></p><p> It is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.</p><p><blockquote>它还通过不断扩大其国际商户基础来解决第二个问题。在这里，美国商家同比增长超过400%，在其他国家也可以看到类似的趋势。此外，它正在增长Wish Local，这是一项将本地企业与平台连接起来的服务，占所有Wish订单的7%。Wish local主要（或专门）在美国销售，因此越来越多地与网站上的其他产品混合在一起。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/09eb88453d075db6b7b8edd21f981b4a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"381\"><span>Source: Sensor Tower</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：传感器塔</span></p></blockquote></p><p> I also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.</p><p><blockquote>我还喜欢Wish通过利用人工智能匹配系统来吸引和留住用户的策略，该系统可以优化平台增长、用户体验和商家投资回报。创造互动移动购物体验的策略似乎运作良好：令人印象深刻的是，Wish每天从用户那里获得超过50万条评论，在这方面甚至超过了亚马逊和其他购物网站，展示了该平台的吸引力。大约80%的首次购物者会再次购买。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.</p><p><blockquote>因此，Wish能够在竞争激烈的电子商务市场中站稳脚跟，为其提供了巨大的增长空间。目前，大约40%的电子商务市场份额仅由亚马逊拥有。与亚马逊相比，其TAM可能有限，因为它专注于低收入利基市场，这也是它最初受欢迎的原因。尽管如此，这仍为Wish提供了超过3万亿美元的市场机会。还值得注意的是，据报道，亚马逊试图以100亿美元收购Wish，但Wish拒绝了，认为该业务的年销售额将增长到1000亿美元，届时其估值将明显更高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Negative Sentiment Baked In</b></p><p><blockquote><b>负面情绪根深蒂固</b></blockquote></p><p> Wish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.</p><p><blockquote>Wish的前两个季度有点令人失望。虽然该公司轻松超出了收入预期，但为了投资物流，该公司消耗了超过3亿美元的现金。然而，更重要的是，月活跃用户数稳步下降，该公司将此归咎于该公司在应对今年早些时候面临的物流挑战时不再重视广告和客户获取。</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Year</td>    <td>2020</td>    <td>2019</td>    <td>2018</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Revenue</td>    <td>$2.54B</td>    <td>$1.9B</td>    <td>$1.73B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Gross Profit</td>    <td>$1.59B</td>    <td>$1.46B</td>    <td>$1.45B</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Sales and Marketing</b></td>    <td><b>$1.71B (+17%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.46B (-7%)</b></td>    <td><b>$1.57B</b></td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>MAUs</td>    <td>107M (+19%)</td>    <td>90M (+10%)</p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><td>年</td><td>2020</td><td>2019</td><td>2018</td></tr><tr><td>收入</td><td>$2.54 B</td><td>19亿美元</td><td>$1.73 B</td></tr><tr><td>毛利</td><td>$1.59 B</td><td>$1.46 B</td><td>$1.45 B</td></tr><tr><td><b>销售及市场推广</b></td><td><b>$17.1亿(+17%)</b></td><td><b>$1.46 B(-7%)</b></td><td><b>$1.57 B</b></td></tr><tr><td>老鼠</td><td>1.07亿(+19%)</td><td>9000万(+10%)</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></td>    <td>82M</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td><b>Active Buyers</b></td>    <td><b>64M (+3%)</b></td>    <td><b>62M (-3%)</b></td>    <td><b>64M</b></td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table> *Growth (Year-over-Year)</p><p><blockquote><td>82M</td><tr><td><b>活跃买家</b></td><td><b>6400万(+3%)</b></td><td><b>6200万(-3%)</b></td><td><b>64M</b></td></tr>*增长（同比）</blockquote></p><p> The largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.</p><p><blockquote>Wish最大的看跌理由是其高昂的营销费用，占其总收入的60%，占其毛利润的100%以上。这完全没问题，除非它通过营销增加活跃买家，不幸的是事实并非如此。这是一个危险信号，并质疑Wish商业模式的长期可持续性。然而，该公司一直接近正现金流，并表示如果不是因为其大量的营销费用，它已经实现了盈利。也就是说，只要Wish获得新的月活跃用户并通过物流服务增加价值，从长远来看，其营销费用就会得到回报。此外，Wish的营销费用占总收入的比例已从上年的67%降至60%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3e18c23728274ee708d896923820b282\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"278\"><span>Source: Wish IR</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Wish IR</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).</p><p><blockquote>就前景而言，这就是该公司本质上强调的。它相信营销费用可以降低到40-45%，从而使EBITDA利润率达到25%的中点范围。如果它实现了这些雄心勃勃的目标（这很有可能），其利润率将与eBay或MercadoLibre（纳斯达克：MELI）相似。不管怎样，Wish的商业模式并不完美，但在我看来（在我看来），所有这些担忧都不仅仅体现在其当前的估值中。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/54029f94c37f301d26e93a11636280e7\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"470\"><span>Data byYCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Even after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.</p><p><blockquote>即使在最近上涨了50%以上之后，股价仍然远远落后于Poshmark（纳斯达克股票代码：POSH）、eBay、Amazon和（Shopify（纽约证券交易所股票代码：SHOP））等同行。Wish的预计收入超过30亿美元，其市销率仅为1.8倍，仅为eBay当前估值的一半，远低于Poshmark。目前的估计是，到2025年，收入将超过60亿美元，自由现金流将达到10亿美元，这意味着Wish的交易价格仅为自由现金流估计的7倍，即销售额的1倍。2021年初，其市盈率接近5倍，估值存在扩张潜力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What about the Lawsuits?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>诉讼呢？</b></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.</p><p><blockquote>也许你已经看过关于集体诉讼的新闻（尤其是在雅虎财经上）。这些诉讼被广泛发布，以提醒投资者在近几个月股价下跌后挽回损失。当股票在短时间内大幅下跌并且投资者可能不关心时，此类诉讼并不罕见。这些诉讼还包括CloverHealth（纳斯达克：CLOV）、Skillz（纽约证券交易所：SKLZ）、Array Technologies（纳斯达克：ARRY）等公司。</blockquote></p><p> Short Interest - Still High</p><p><blockquote>空头利息——仍然很高</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/875b3fdaf74f1ef639b51d77a3aac01f\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"360\"><span>Source: Fintel</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Fintel</span></p></blockquote></p><p></p><p> Wish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.</p><p><blockquote>Wish已经获得了散户投资者的巨大吸引力，因为投资者正在寻找下一次大的轧空。由于Wish的大部分股票仍被锁定，其确切的做空比率很难估计。根据Seeking Alpha的数据，目前的空头比率仅为7%，但这个数字可能会更高。根据彭博终端数据，上周其空头权益占其流通股的百分比约为48%。Fintel等其他消息来源将当前的空头量确定为20-30%。现在，很难给出一个确切的估计，但总体来说，很可能在这个范围内的某个地方，许多空头评级仍有待回补。从长远来看，高空头兴趣可能是一个优势，如果股票开始呈上升趋势，就会导致更快的加速。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> I believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.</p><p><blockquote>我相信Wish仍然是电子商务中最被低估的资产之一，其平台上拥有超过1亿的月用户，并连接了来自世界各地的数千家商家。移动购物应用程序仍然是该领域下载量最高的购物应用程序之一，并具有独特的价值主张，比乍一看更智能。此外，其与PrestaShop的最新合作伙伴关系将为超过300,000家商家提供免费的直接集成，将他们直接连接到Wish的商家仪表板，从而进一步推动增长。尽管Wish不完善的商业模式存在盈利能力滞后等风险，但耐心的投资者可能会获得丰厚的回报。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4434950-wish-stock-patient-investors-could-soon-see-20-again","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1148768572","content_text":"Summary\n\nWish (ContextLogic) remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce trading at just 1.3x forward EV to Sales.\nWish's latest partnership with PrestaShop will further accelerate international expansion and growth initiatives.\nWhile accurate data regarding its short interest is difficult to find as most of its float is still locked up, I estimate a short interest between 30-40%.\nI believe bear arguments including high marketing spend and stalling user numbers are already baked in the current share price.\n\nJuSun/iStock via Getty Images\nOverview\nContextLogic (WISH) has been a wild ride for shareholders, as high volatility continues to cause significant price movements in recent weeks. The e-commerce platform initially went public in December at $20 per share before surging to an all-time high of $32 in February due to a momentum-driven rally. That said, shares have steadily plunged ever since, hitting an all-time low of just $7 in June, but are now recovering swiftly after increased interest from the retail trading sector. Here, the stock is favored due to its high volatility, short interest, and enormous upside potential.\nIn this context, I believe that the high short interest has increasingly pushed shares below fair value and that patient investors could soon see $20 or more again as the company is working through logistic challenges and will soon return to economies of scale. In this regard, the e-commerce platform has a unique value proposition and is well-positioned to gain market share in a $6 trillion e-commerce industry.\nThe Digital Dollar Tree\nWish has been criticized heavily as an e-commerce platform, and I would almost argue that its image of being a third-party 'dropshipping' site for Chinese merchants has kept investors away from the stock so far. However, this may only be partially true. Essentially, Wish has inverted Amazon's(NASDAQ:AMZN)business model through low-priced (low-quality) products and sluggish delivery times that may lead to week-long delivery times. This is because Wish does not handle shipping itself, which is why it can offer these ultra-low prices of offering a hoodie for $2 plus $2 shipping.\nFrankly, Wish is still dependent on Chinese merchants, accounting for most of its product catalogs. This is unsurprising, considering that most goods are produced in China as the production costs are among the lowest in the world. Most of the goods being sold on Amazon or eBay(NASDAQ:EBAY)were also produced in China, although they earn a higher perception due to one-day delivery shipping programs or higher prices.\n\nNow, I view Wish as the digital dollar tree, where online shoppers discover items that they want, not need. In the process, customers have more patience for products and are willing to wait longer for them to arrive. Wish is working towards addressing both of these issues (quality and merchant diversification) as its platform is gaining popularity. Here, it has been investing in logistics to offer quicker delivery, demonstrated by a 275% YoY increase in logistics revenue. Since these revenues provide low margins, its overall gross margins have decreased in accordance. However, once it achieves economies of scale in the segment, margin growth should reverse and trail back towards 70%.\nIt is also addressing the second issue by continuously growing its international merchant base. Here, U.S. merchants increased by over 400% YoY, and a similar trend is to be seen in other countries. Moreover, it is growing Wish Local, a service connecting local businesses to the platform, accounting for 7% of all Wish orders. Wish local is mostly (or exclusively) available in the United States and thus increasingly mixes with other products on the website.\nSource: Sensor Tower\nI also like Wish's strategy to engage and retain users by utilizing an AI matching system that optimizes platform growth, user experience, and merchant return on investment. The strategy to create an interactive mobile shopping experience appears to be working well: Impressively, Wish gets over500,000reviews per day from users, surpassing even Amazon and other shopping sites in this regard, demonstrating just about how engaging the platform is. Around 80% of first-time shoppersreturnto buy again.\nWish is, therefore, able to establish itself in the highly competitive E-commerce market that offers a tremendous runway for growth. Currently, around 40% of the E-commerce market share is owned just by Amazon. Compared to Amazon, its TAM may be limited as it concentrates on its lower-income niche, which is how it became popular in the first place. Still, this represents a +$3 trillion market opportunity for Wish to tap into. It is also worth noting that according toreports, Amazon tried to acquire Wish for $10 billion, yet Wish rejected, believing growing the business to $100 billion in annual sales, at which point it would be valued significantly higher.\nNegative Sentiment Baked In\nWish's first two quarters have been slightly disappointing. While the company handily beat revenue estimates, the company burned through over $300 million in cash in order to invest in logistics. More importantly, however, is the fact that MAUs have dropped steadily, which the company blames on de-de-emphasizing advertising and customer acquisition as the company worked through logistics challenges it faced earlier in the year.\n\n\n\nYear\n2020\n2019\n2018\n\n\nRevenue\n$2.54B\n$1.9B\n$1.73B\n\n\nGross Profit\n$1.59B\n$1.46B\n$1.45B\n\n\nSales and Marketing\n$1.71B (+17%)\n$1.46B (-7%)\n$1.57B\n\n\nMAUs\n107M (+19%)\n90M (+10%)\n82M\n\n\nActive Buyers\n64M (+3%)\n62M (-3%)\n64M\n\n\n\n*Growth (Year-over-Year)\nThe largest bear argument against Wish is its high marketing expenses, which account for 60% of its total revenues and over 100% of its gross profits. This is totally fine unless it grows its active buyers through marketing, which unfortunately has not been the case. This is a red flag and questions the long-term sustainability of Wish's business model. However, the company has been close to being cash flow positive, and it stated it already would be profitable if it weren't for its extensive marketing expense. That said, as long as Wish acquires new MAUs and increases value through logistic services, its marketing expenses pay off in the long run. Moreover, as a percentage of total revenues, Wish's marketing expenses have dropped to 60%, down from 67% in the year prior.\nSource: Wish IR\nIn terms of the outlook, this is what the company is essentially stressing. It believes marketing expenses can decrease to 40-45%, leading to EBITDA margins of 25% at the midpoint range. If it achieves these ambitious goals (which is very well possible), its profitability margins would be similar to those of eBay or MercadoLibre(NASDAQ:MELI). In either way, Wish's business model is not perfect, but all these concerns are more than baked in its current valuation, IMO (In My Opinion).\nData byYCharts\nEven after the latest +50% rise, shares are still trailing far behind peers such as Poshmark(NASDAQ:POSH), eBay, Amazon, and (Shopify(NYSE:SHOP)). At over $3 billion estimated revenues, Wish is trading at just 1.8x Price to Sales, just half of eBay's current valuation and much lower than Poshmark. Current estimates are calling for over $6 billion in revenues by 2025 and $1 billion in free cash flow, meaning that Wish trades at just 7x free cash flow estimates, or 1 times sales. In early 2021, its P/S ratio stood closer to 5x, so there is potential for a valuation expansion.\nWhat about the Lawsuits?\nPerhaps you've seen the news (especially on Yahoo Finance) regarding the class actionlawsuits. These lawsuits are extensively posted to remind investors of recovering incurred losses after its share price dropped in recent months. Such lawsuits are not unusual when stocks drop sharply in a short period of time and are likely of no concern to investors. These lawsuits have also included companies such asCloverHealth(NASDAQ:CLOV), Skillz(NYSE:SKLZ), Array Technologies(NASDAQ:ARRY), etc.\nShort Interest - Still High\nSource: Fintel\nWish has gained significant attraction from retail investors, as investors were looking for the next big short squeeze. Since most of Wish's shares have still been locked up, its exact short ratio was difficult to estimate. According to Seeking Alpha, the current short ratio stands at just 7%, but the figure is likely higher. Last week, its short interest as a percent of its equity float stood at roughly 48%, according to Bloomberg Terminal data. Other sources such as Fintel pin the current short volume at 20-30%. Now, it's difficult to give an exact estimate, but generally speaking, it's probably somewhere within this range, and many short calls are still to be covered. In the long term, the high-short interest could be an advantage, leading to a quicker acceleration if the stock begins trending upwards.\nThe Bottom Line\nI believe that Wish remains one of the most underappreciated assets within e-commerce, boasting over 100 million monthly users on its platform and connecting thousands of merchants from all over the world. The mobile shopping app continues to be one of the top downloaded shopping apps in the space and has a unique value proposition, which is smarter than it appears at first sight. Moreover, its latestpartnershipwith PrestaShop will give over 300,000 merchants free access to a direct integration that connects them directly to Wish's merchant dashboard, further driving growth. While there are risks to Wish's imperfect business model, such as lagging profitability, patient investors could be rewarded mightily.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":112774904,"gmtCreate":1622938040908,"gmtModify":1634096862656,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Response please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Response please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/112774904","repostId":"1106312903","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1106312903","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1622855773,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1106312903?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-05 09:16","market":"us","language":"en","title":"U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1106312903","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental h","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年占据32%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>U.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nU.S. IPO Week Ahead: Digital Payments, Mental Health Services, And More In A Diverse 8 IPO<blockquote>未来一周的美国IPO：多元化的8次IPO中的数字支付、心理健康服务等</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-05 09:16</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</li>  <li>Payments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.</li>  <li>Chinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.</li> </ul> Eight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</li><li>支付平台Marqeta计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。</li><li>中国在线招聘平台看准计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。</li></ul>目前有八起IPO计划筹集37亿美元，涉及数字支付、心理健康服务等领域。</blockquote></p><p> Payments platform&nbsp;<b>Marqeta</b>(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.</p><p><blockquote>支付平台<b>马尔凯塔</b>(MQ)计划以124亿美元的市值筹集10亿美元。该公司的平台允许企业启动和管理自己的卡计划，向客户或最终用户发行卡，以及授权和结算交易。Marqeta发展迅速，其客户包括Affirm(AFRM)和DoorDash(DASH)等品牌。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online recruitment platform&nbsp;<b>Kanzhun</b>(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线招聘平台<b>看准</b>(BZ)计划以82亿美元的市值筹集8.64亿美元。看准的核心产品BOSS直聘是一个移动原生平台，促进求职者和企业客户之间的直接聊天。该公司声称，按月活跃用户数计算，它是2020年中国最大的在线招聘平台。</blockquote></p><p> Mental health services provider&nbsp;<b>LifeStance Health</b>(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.</p><p><blockquote>心理健康服务提供者<b>生命健康</b>(LFST)计划以61亿美元的市值筹集6.4亿美元。LifeStance表示，截至2021年3月31日，它已经建立了美国最大的门诊心理健康平台之一，在27个州的73个MSA中雇用了3,300多名持牌心理健康临床医生。尽管2021年第一季度的息税前利润转为负值，但该公司仍实现了增长。</blockquote></p><p> Israel’s&nbsp;<b>monday.com</b>(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.</p><p><blockquote>以色列的<b>周一网</b>(MNDY)计划以68亿美元的市值筹集4.9亿美元。monday.com允许组织轻松构建满足其需求的软件应用程序和工作管理工具。截至2021年3月31日，它为190多个国家200多个行业的近128,000名客户提供服务。Salesforce和Zoom计划同时进行私募，总共投资1.5亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> BPO vendor&nbsp;<b>TaskUs</b>(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.</p><p><blockquote>BPO供应商<b>塔斯库斯</b>(TASK)计划以25亿美元的市值筹集3.04亿美元。TaskUs是一家数字商业服务外包商，提供数字客户体验服务、内容安全服务和人工智能运营。截至2020年12月31日，该公司盈利强劲，增长强劲，拥有100多家客户。</blockquote></p><p> Data-driven marketing platform&nbsp;<b>Zeta Global</b>(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>数据驱动营销平台<b>泽塔全球</b>(ZETA)计划以21亿美元的市值筹集2.5亿美元。该公司的Zeta营销平台使用身份数据通过电子邮件、社交媒体、网络、聊天、联网电视、视频和其他渠道锁定、联系和吸引消费者。Zeta已实现盈利，为1,000多家客户提供服务，2020年提供约5亿次广告展示。</blockquote></p><p> Online luxury goods marketplace&nbsp;<b>1stDibs</b>(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.</p><p><blockquote>网上奢侈品市场<b>第一个</b>(DIBS)计划以7.73亿美元的市值筹集1.12亿美元。1stDibs连接复古、古董和当代家具、家居装饰、珠宝、手表、艺术和时尚的买家和卖家。2020年，该市场有超过58,000名买家在过去一年中进行了购买，平均每年的总购买额超过5,500美元。</blockquote></p><p> Chinese online tutoring platform&nbsp;<b>Zhangmen Education</b>(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.</p><p><blockquote>中文在线辅导平台<b>掌门教育</b>(ZME)计划以19亿美元的市值筹集4300万美元。掌门教育表示，自2017年以来，按收入计算，它一直是中国最大的在线K-12辅导服务提供商，2020年占据32%的市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d771f02e44d9d489ff772f1577280332\" tg-width=\"945\" tg-height=\"666\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Street research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.</p><p><blockquote>预计将有6家公司接受街头调查，多达11家公司的禁售期将到期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2011年6月3日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今下跌6.0%，而标普500上涨11.6%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Zoom Video（ZM）和优步（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌1.1%，而ACWX指数上涨10.5%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括Nexi和EQT Partners。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZME":"掌门教育",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","DIBS":"1stdibs.com Inc.",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","MNDY":"Monday.com Ltd.","ZETA":"Zeta Global Holdings Corp.","LFST":"LifeStance Health Group, Inc.","TASK":"TaskUs Inc.","MQ":"Marqeta, Inc.","BZ":"BOSS直聘"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/82421/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-Digital-payments-mental-health-services-and-more-in-a-div","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1106312903","content_text":"Summary\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap.\n\nEight IPOs are currently slated to raise $3.7 billion, featuring digital payments, mental health services, and more.\nPayments platform Marqeta(MQ) plans to raise $1.0 billion at a $12.4 billion market cap. The company's platform allows businesses to launch and manage their own card programs, issue cards to their customers or end users, and authorize and settle transactions. Marqeta is fast growing and counts names like Affirm (AFRM) and DoorDash (DASH) among its customers.\nChinese online recruitment platform Kanzhun(BZ) plans to raise $864 million at an $8.2 billion market cap. Kanzhun's core product, BOSS Zhipin, is a mobile-native platform that promotes direct chats between job seekers and enterprise clients. The company claims it was the largest online recruitment platform in China by MAUs in 2020.\nMental health services provider LifeStance Health(LFST) plans to raise $640 million at a $6.1 billion market cap. LifeStance states that it has built one of the nation's largest outpatient mental health platforms, employing over 3,300 licensed mental health clinicians across 73 MSAs in 27 states as of March 31, 2021. The company has demonstrated growth, though EBIT turned negative in the 1Q21.\nIsrael’s monday.com(MNDY) plans to raise $490 million at a $6.8 billion market cap. monday.com allows organizations to easily build software applications and work management tools that fit their needs. As of March 31, 2021, it served nearly 128,000 customers across over 200 industries in more than 190 countries. Salesforce and Zoom plan to invest a combined $150 million in a concurrent private placement.\nBPO vendor TaskUs(TASK) plans to raise $304 million at a $2.5 billion market cap. TaskUs is a digital business services outsourcer, providing digital customer experience services, content security services, and artificial intelligence operations. Profitable with strong growth, the company had over 100 clients as of December 31, 2020.\nData-driven marketing platform Zeta Global(ZETA) plans to raise $250 million at a $2.1 billion market cap. The company’s Zeta Marketing Platform uses identity data to target, connect, and engage consumers across email, social media, web, chat, connected TV, video, and other channels. Zeta is profitable and serves more than 1,000 customers, delivering roughly 500 million ad impressions in 2020.\nOnline luxury goods marketplace 1stDibs(DIBS) plans to raise $112 million at a $773 million market cap. 1stDibs connects buyers and sellers of vintage, antique, and contemporary furniture, home decor, jewelry, watches, art, and fashion. In 2020, the marketplace had more than 58,000 buyers who had made a purchase in the past year, with an average aggregate purchase per year of over $5,500.\nChinese online tutoring platform Zhangmen Education(ZME) plans to raise $43 million at a $1.9 billion market cap. Zhangmen Education states that it has been the largest online K-12 tutoring service provider in China by revenue since 2017, claiming a 32% market share in 2020.\n\nStreet research is expected for six companies, and lock-up periods will be expiring for up to 11 companies.\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 6/3/21, the Renaissance IPO Index was down 6.0% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 11.6%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Zoom Video (ZM) and Uber (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 1.1% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 10.5%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Nexi and EQT Partners.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"LFST":0.9,"ZME":0.9,"MQ":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"TASK":0.9,"ZETA":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"MNDY":0.9,"BZ":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DIBS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":473,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":133197339,"gmtCreate":1621725391521,"gmtModify":1634187025299,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!&nbsp;","listText":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!&nbsp;","text":"Likes n comments please! Thanks!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":8,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/133197339","repostId":"2137906121","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":479,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":823554433,"gmtCreate":1633651065745,"gmtModify":1633651066622,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Buy?&nbsp;","listText":"Buy?&nbsp;","text":"Buy?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":7,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/823554433","repostId":"823592192","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":823592192,"gmtCreate":1633647272763,"gmtModify":1633647273928,"author":{"id":"3577965120664925","authorId":"3577965120664925","name":"SR050321","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6ad8f48d49f7392730c39c441b79e8f0","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3577965120664925","authorIdStr":"3577965120664925"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/EDU\">$New Oriental Education &amp; 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charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>中概股盘前多数下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nMost of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading<blockquote>中概股盘前多数下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-09-09 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Sept 9)&nbsp;Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>（9月9日）中概股盘前交易多数下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f1cc6e1e421893d8bebaea0dc552bf76\" tg-width=\"279\" tg-height=\"728\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1176538965","content_text":"(Sept 9) Most of China concepts stocks fell in premarket trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":674,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164304527,"gmtCreate":1624169662269,"gmtModify":1634009846717,"author":{"id":"3581711485322302","authorId":"3581711485322302","name":"vivo8787","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b863ab23ed789e4cdcd83c9777c2cbae","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3581711485322302","authorIdStr":"3581711485322302"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Everything rocketing so do share prices. What is the cause of all these happening? Who are those really suffer during inflation?&nbsp;","listText":"Everything rocketing so do share prices. What is the cause of all these happening? Who are those really suffer during inflation?&nbsp;","text":"Everything rocketing so do share prices. What is the cause of all these happening? 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All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","listText":"Hello, dear Tigers!&nbsp; Happy&nbsp;Halloween!&nbsp;🎃🎃🎃&nbsp;&nbsp; <a href=\"https://www.tigerbrokers.com.sg/activity/market/2021/halloween/?lang=en_US#/\" target=\"_blank\">Tap&nbsp;here&nbsp;to&nbsp;play the Halloween game,&nbsp;and&nbsp;you&nbsp;stand&nbsp;a&nbsp;chance&nbsp;to win various rewards!&nbsp;</a> Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1.&nbsp;How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'.&nbsp; 2.&nbsp;How to collect points? Each player has 30 seconds to catch falling candies while av","text":"Hello, dear Tigers! Happy Halloween! 🎃🎃🎃 Tap here to play the Halloween game, and you stand a chance to win various rewards! Promotion Period: October 27, 2021 18:00 - November 9, 2021 18:00 (SGT) 1. How to Participate? All Tiger clients may collect points which can be used to redeem rewards by taking part in the Trade or Treating Game. All existing Tiger clients will have 2 game attempts. Clients can get more game attempts by completing different tasks, such as 'Invite a friend' or 'Share Halloween Game'. 2. How to collect points? 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