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2021-06-09

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2021-06-18

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2021-06-14

Like and comment pls

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2021-06-06

$BlackBerry(BB)$hmmm

2021-09-03

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2021-06-25

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The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>

2021-06-09

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2021-06-02

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2021-07-10

Nice

A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>

2021-05-04

Whyy

After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>继昨天飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%</blockquote>

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Although Trump's current value of $2.5 billion is still worthy of being called \"super rich\", he is still $400 million short of the Forbes 400 Rich List in the past.</p><p><blockquote>特朗普股价在盘前交易中大幅下跌，Phunware下跌近10%，Creatd和DWAC下跌超过6%。根据福布斯排行榜，唐纳德·特朗普25年来首次跌出福布斯美国400富豪榜。尽管特朗普目前25亿美元的身价仍配得上被称为“超级富豪”，但他距离过去的福布斯400富豪榜还差4亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Last week,Trump announced plans to set up his new social platform \"TRUTH Social\" and go public through SPAC company DWAC.&nbsp;While&nbsp;Phunware's software previously provided mobile applications for Trump campaign team.And recently,Creatd&nbsp;announced a new non-fungible token art drop through its OG Gallery unit consisting of three photographs of Trump. The NFT includes three candid images of a young Donald Trump, captured as he signs the breast of a model.</p><p><blockquote>上周，特朗普宣布计划成立自己的新社交平台“TRUTH Social”，并通过SPAC公司DWAC上市，而Phunware的软件此前曾为特朗普竞选团队提供移动应用。最近，Creatd通过其OG画廊部门宣布了一个新的不可替代的象征性艺术下降，由特朗普的三张照片组成。NFT包括三张年轻的唐纳德·特朗普在一名模特的胸部签名时拍摄的照片。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PHUN":"Phunware, Inc.","CRTD":"Creatd Inc"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105918886","content_text":"Trump stocks fell sharply in premarket trading,Phunware slid nearly 10%,Creatd and DWAC slid over 6%.Donald Trump has dropped from the Forbes 400 list of the richest Americans for the first time in 25 years, according to the Forbes list. Although Trump's current value of $2.5 billion is still worthy of being called \"super rich\", he is still $400 million short of the Forbes 400 Rich List in the past.\nLast week,Trump announced plans to set up his new social platform \"TRUTH Social\" and go public through SPAC company DWAC. While Phunware's software previously provided mobile applications for Trump campaign team.And recently,Creatd announced a new non-fungible token art drop through its OG Gallery unit consisting of three photographs of Trump. 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do you think?","listText":"What do you think?","text":"What do you think?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/57ca6d679dcbb2a73d6f64a530f247d3","width":"1080","height":"2229"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839876671","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3098,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148077094,"gmtCreate":1625907905418,"gmtModify":1631890255690,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148077094","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":140521161,"gmtCreate":1625666627153,"gmtModify":1631885414644,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>ohwell","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BB\">$BlackBerry(BB)$</a>ohwell","text":"$BlackBerry(BB)$ohwell","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b132e10c9a7cc84713c330d97e3eb9c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/140521161","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3584,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":153922737,"gmtCreate":1625006433429,"gmtModify":1631890255693,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Yes!","listText":"Yes!","text":"Yes!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/153922737","repostId":"1174683579","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3287,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126296556,"gmtCreate":1624573575175,"gmtModify":1631888854665,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEMD\">$Aethlon Medical(AEMD)$</a>now what&nbsp;","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEMD\">$Aethlon Medical(AEMD)$</a>now what&nbsp;","text":"$Aethlon Medical(AEMD)$now what","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b198e67202405123eaf93b7aca522d8","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126296556","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2182,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":126296027,"gmtCreate":1624573480469,"gmtModify":1631890255697,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126296027","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128802121,"gmtCreate":1624508871963,"gmtModify":1631886177548,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSAT\">$Globalstar(GSAT)$</a>go go go","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GSAT\">$Globalstar(GSAT)$</a>go go 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and like pls","listText":"Comment and like pls","text":"Comment and like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/126296027","repostId":"1187819280","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187819280","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624529642,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187819280?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 18:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187819280","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pan","content":"<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe ‘shelter in suburbia’ trade is about to reverse — and these stocks will suffer<blockquote>“郊区避难所”交易即将逆转——这些股票将受到影响</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 18:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.</b>  One of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.</p><p><blockquote><b>大流行大趋势结束的5个原因。</b>COVID-19大流行最大的投资故事之一是以“郊区避难所”为主题的非必需消费品股票的繁荣。从电商平台到家装店，再到家具和家居用品商家，许多表现最好的企业都符合这种口味。</blockquote></p><p> Take the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.</p><p><blockquote>以基础广泛的Vanguard非必需消费品指数基金ETF VCR为例，+0.66%，从2020年3月到2021年3月飙升了90%以上。这要归功于家装股Lowe's LOW(-0.30%)和Home Depot HD(-0.33%)以及TJX TJX(-0.08%)等零售商。</blockquote></p><p> Lately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&amp;P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.</p><p><blockquote>然而，最近，其中许多名称的性能开始滞后。事实上，自4月1日以来，我们看到这三只股票都小幅下跌，尽管标普500 SPX指数-0.11%同期上涨了约6%。</blockquote></p><p> And some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.</p><p><blockquote>有些人担心这可能只是开始。正如一位华尔街内部人士最近在接受彭博社采访时所说，包括五金店和家居用品商家在内的居家股票即将“大幅放松”。</blockquote></p><p> While some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.</p><p><blockquote>虽然一些知名的“郊区”交易仍然相对稳定，但麻烦的迹象已经在边缘出现。Century Communities CCS(-0.34%)和Dream Finders Homes DFH(-2.55%)这两家中型单户住宅建筑商的股价在上个月暴跌了两位数。家具方面，家电巨头惠而浦公司WHR(-0.51%)和百货公司Nordstrom JWN(+2.03%)均较春季高点大幅下跌。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Here are five big reasons why:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>以下是五大原因：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>1.</b>&nbsp;<b>The upgrade cycle is over</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.</b> <b>升级周期结束</b></blockquote></p><p> Last summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.</p><p><blockquote>去年夏天，被困在家里的白领们记下了逾期的项目，并利用了能够轻松与承包商见面的机会。但在许多方面，这种增长是不可持续的。</blockquote></p><p> Consider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.</p><p><blockquote>根据NPD集团的数据，考虑一下房主的购买类型。水龙头、厨柜甚至马桶都是2020年销售的最受欢迎的产品。不用说，即使是最挥霍的房主也不会遵循每年改造厨房和浴室的升级周期。</blockquote></p><p> The same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>家具和其他家居用品也是如此。互联网巨头Comscore在2020年5月记录了历史上相关网站的最高访问量，1.33亿网络冲浪者购买了某种家居用品。再说一次，新沙发或台灯不是每年都会购买的——所以这种趋势似乎无法持续很长时间。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2.&nbsp;Valuations are stretched</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.估值捉襟见肘</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.</p><p><blockquote>谈到家居用品供应商的大流行后高峰，我们已经看到财务状况通过利润和销售额的增加证实了这些大幅增长。然而，我们也看到许多相关商家的股价飙升得更多——超出了历史标准的估值。</blockquote></p><p> Take TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.</p><p><blockquote>以TJX为例。目前，这家折扣零售商的远期市盈率超过26，而2020年春季的远期市盈率仅为21。其往绩市销率目前为2.1，而此前为1.4。</blockquote></p><p> What’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&amp;P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.</p><p><blockquote>更重要的是，TJX等之前宠儿的估值也与同行不符。考虑到目前整个标普500指数的远期市盈率为22，而其他类似的公司，如梅西百货M，+0.70%和Big Lot Big，-3.71%，实际上其远期市盈率远低于10。当然，你可以说TJX是独一无二的……但你可能也想知道目前流行的居家交易之外的许多其他股票的“公允价值”是什么样的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3.&nbsp;Delays and shortages</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.延误和短缺</b></blockquote></p><p> Future growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.</p><p><blockquote>当然，这些股票在大流行推动下达到峰值的未来增长并非不可能。但考虑到供应链中断，这似乎不太可能。造成这些延误的原因有很多，包括海外运输延误以及影响许多行业的产能和产量紧缩，但“呆在家里”的股票似乎受到的打击尤其严重。</blockquote></p><p> Home improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.</p><p><blockquote>根据全国住宅建筑商协会的数据，家装产品根本无处可寻，大约94%的建筑商报告“至少有一些严重的电器短缺”。另有93%的人缺乏框架木材，87%的人表示很难获得门窗。</blockquote></p><p> Even if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.</p><p><blockquote>即使你可以克服需求问题，如果没有原材料来发挥作用，也很难看到这一类别的未来增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4.&nbsp;Inflationary pressures</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀压力</b></blockquote></p><p> For the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.</p><p><blockquote>对于那些还没有为承包商支付现金或忍受昂贵的新家具长时间延误的人来说，现在对新购物者来说有一个相当大的抑制因素：通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> The cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.</p><p><blockquote>5月份消费者价格指数衡量的生活成本上涨0.6%，年增长率为5%。这不仅高于预期，而且是自2008年夏季以来最快的速度。通胀风险如此明显，以至于美联储公开表示可能会提前预期加息的时间表，以掩盖风险。</blockquote></p><p> Inflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.</p><p><blockquote>当然，通货膨胀并不总是丧钟。但从历史上看，它削弱了购买力，并可能减少我们在去年左右看到的“呆在家里”股票的一些支出。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5.&nbsp;Home-equity hubris</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.房屋净值傲慢</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.</p><p><blockquote>说到炙手可热的通货膨胀：5月份，美国房屋中值价格首次突破35万美元，比2020年上涨23.6%。此外，Realtor.com的一项调查显示，大约三分之一的待售房主希望得到高于要价的价格，大约相同数量的房主希望在上市一周内收到报价。</blockquote></p><p> Some of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.</p><p><blockquote>其中一些是合理的。近年来，有许多文章都是关于有吸引力的市场供应短缺的，重要的是要承认疫情的远程工作确实对人们为什么住在他们居住的地方产生了一些破坏性的反思。</blockquote></p><p> But here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.</p><p><blockquote>但事情变得危险的地方是：房主已经提前在房价上花费了预期的溢价。根据房地美的数据，去年美国房屋的股权贷款约为1527亿美元，比2019年大幅增长41.7%，是自2007年以来最高的再融资套现金额。</blockquote></p><p> Anyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.</p><p><blockquote>有人记得2007年房地产市场发生了什么吗？还是当年类似的卖家权利感？目前还没有明显的泡沫破裂迹象，但美国房主可能对自己房屋的价值过于乐观，而且这种免费的房屋净值贷款可能不会持续太久。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-shelter-in-suburbia-trade-is-about-to-reverse-and-these-stocks-will-suffer-11624457411?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187819280","content_text":"5 reasons the pandemic megatrend is over.\n\nOne of the biggest investment stories of the COVID-19 pandemic has been the boom in consumer discretionary stocks with a “shelter in suburbia” theme. From e-commerce platforms to home improvement stores to furniture and housewares merchants, many of the top performers have fit this flavor.\nTake the broad-based Vanguard Consumer Discretionary Index Fund ETF VCR, +0.66% that surged more than 90% from March 2020 to March 2021. That was thanks to components like home improvement stocks Lowe’s LOW, -0.30% and Home Depot HD, -0.33% alongside retailers like TJX TJX, -0.08%.\nLately, however, performance has started to lag for many of these names. In fact, since April 1 we’ve seen these three stocks all drift slightly into the red even as the S&P 500 SPX, -0.11% has tacked on about 6% in the same period.\nAnd some fear that may only be the beginning. As one Wall Street insider said recently in a Bloomberg interview, a “huge unwind” is coming for stay-at-home stocks, including hardware stores and home-goods merchants.\nWhile some big-name “suburbia” trades are still relatively stable, signs of trouble are already emerging at the fringes. Century Communities CCS, -0.34% and Dream Finders Homes DFH, -2.55%, two mid-tier single family homebuilders, have seen shares crash by double digits over the last month. On the furnishings side, appliance giant Whirlpool Corporation WHR, -0.51% and department store Nordstrom JWN, +2.03% are down sharply from their spring highs.\nHere are five big reasons why:\n1. The upgrade cycle is over\nLast summer, white-collar workers who were stuck at home made note of overdue projects and took advantage of being able to easily meet with contractors. But in many ways, this growth is not sustainable.\nConsider the kind of purchases homeowners were making according to data from the NPD Group. Faucets, kitchen cabinets and even toilets were among the most popular products sold in 2020. Needless to say, even the most profligate homeowners aren’t going to follow this upgrade cycle of remodeling kitchens and bathrooms on an annual basis.\nThe same is true for furniture and other home goods. Internet giant Comscore recorded the highest visitation to related websites in history in May 2020 with 133 million web surfers shopping for some kind of home goods. Once again, a new couch or lamp is not an annual purchase — so this trend seems unsustainable for much longer.\n2. Valuations are stretched\nSpeaking of post-pandemic peaks for home-goods purveyors, we’ve seen the financials bear out these big increases via boosted profits and sales. However, we’ve also seen the stock of many related merchants surge even more — stretching their valuations from historical norms.\nTake TJX. Currently this discount retailer has a forward price-to-earnings ratio of more than 26, compared with a forward P/E of just 21 in spring 2020. Its trailing price-to-sales ratio is now 2.1 compared with 1.4.\nWhat’s more, valuations for previous darlings like TJX are out of line with peers, too. Consider the forward P/E of the overall S&P 500 index is 22 right now, and other similar names like Macy’s M, +0.70% and Big Lots BIG, -3.71% actually have forward P/E ratios well under 10. You can argue TJX is unique, of course… but you also may want to be aware of what “fair value” looks like for many other stocks outside fashionable stay-at-home trades right now.\n3. Delays and shortages\nFuture growth from pandemic-fueled peaks in these stocks is not impossible, of course. But given supply chain disruptions it seems highly unlikely. There are a host of reasons for these delays, including overseas shipping delays as well as capacity and output crunches that are affecting many industries, but “stay at home” stocks seem particularly hard hit.\nHome improvement products are simply nowhere to be found, with roughly 94% of builders reporting “at least some serious shortages of appliances” according to the National Association of Home Builders. Another 93% are running short on framing lumber and 87% say it is hard to obtain windows and doors.\nEven if you can get past demand concerns, without the raw materials to get to work it’s very hard to see future growth in this category.\n4. Inflationary pressures\nFor the people who haven’t already ponied up the cash for a contractor or made their peace with extended delays for their expensive new furniture, there is a pretty big disincentive right now for new shoppers: inflation.\nThe cost of living as measured by the Consumer Price Index jumped 0.6% in May to run at a 5% annual rate. That was not only higher than expectations, but the fastest pace since the summer of 2008. The inflation risks were so pronounced that the Federal Reserve publicly stated it could move up the schedule for expected interest rate increases to keep the risks under wraps.\nInflation isn’t always a death knell, of course. But it has historically eroded purchasing power and could curtail some of the spending in “stay at home” stocks that we’ve seen in the last year or so.\n5. Home-equity hubris\nSpeaking of red-hot inflation: In May, the median price for U.S. homes topped $350,000 for the first time ever — up 23.6% from 2020. What’s more, a Realtor.com survey showed roughly a third of selling homeowners expect to get more than their asking price, and roughly the same amount expect an offer within a week of listing.\nSome of this is justifiable. Many articles have been written in recent years about the dearth of supply in attractive markets, and it’s important to acknowledge the remote work of the pandemic has indeed created some disruptive introspection into why people live where they do.\nBut here’s where things get dicey: homeowners who have already spent the expected premium on their home’s price well in advance. According to Freddie Mac, about $152.7 billion in equity loans were taken out on U.S. houses last year, a massive increase of 41.7% from 2019 and the highest refinancing cash-out dollar amount since 2007.\nAnyone remember what happened to the real-estate market in 2007? Or the similar sense of seller entitlement from those days? There’s no clear signs of a bubble bursting just yet, but there’s real risk American homeowners may be overly optimistic about what their homes are worth — and a chance this home equity loan free-for-all simply isn’t sustainable for much longer.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":189848827,"gmtCreate":1623252740669,"gmtModify":1631893315049,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like.","listText":"Pls like.","text":"Pls like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/189848827","repostId":"1139777948","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":655,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":113054488,"gmtCreate":1622588277344,"gmtModify":1631893315067,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment and like plsss","listText":"Comment and like plsss","text":"Comment and like plsss","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/113054488","repostId":"2140626460","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":376,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148077094,"gmtCreate":1625907905418,"gmtModify":1631890255690,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148077094","repostId":"2150053623","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2150053623","kind":"highlight","pubTimestamp":1625883910,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2150053623?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:25","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2150053623","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an infla","content":"<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>A crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nA crazy week for U.S. stocks came with a change in the market narrative -- should investors believe it?<blockquote>美股疯狂的一周伴随着市场叙事的变化——投资者应该相信吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 10:25</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge</p><p><blockquote>投资者必须决定他们是否认为经济增长停滞是比通胀飙升更大的威胁</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/32ec205cf1616aaba5573cc40240a899\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"876\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Fears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> ?</p><p><blockquote>对通货膨胀失控的担忧已经被对全球经济增长迅速放缓的担忧所取代——这使得美国投资者度过了一个漫长的假期——但这种新的说法正确吗<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>？</blockquote></p><p> A Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>国债反弹变成了买盘狂潮，导致长期收益率大幅走低。这使得所谓的通货再膨胀交易失去了任何剩余的动力，该交易青睐对周期性更敏感的公司的股票，预计这些公司将从价格上涨和经济增长加速中受益最多。</blockquote></p><p> What changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.</p><p><blockquote>什么变了？管理着6050亿美元资产的纽约人寿投资公司(New York Life Investments)经济学家兼投资组合策略师劳伦·古德温(Lauren Goodwin)表示，市场叙事的转变有三个重要因素。</blockquote></p><p> The first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，首先是美联储对数据的反应方式发生了明显的变化，投资者不再希望政策制定者像之前认为的那样容忍经济过热和通胀上升。二是虽然经济增长预计将保持强劲，但增长速度预计已经见顶。第三，人们担心导致新冠肺炎的三角洲和其他冠状病毒变种的传播可能会迫使新一轮限制，这将给全球经济活动带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> \"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"</p><p><blockquote>古德温在接受电话采访时表示：“总的来说，这与几周前的市场共识叙事截然不同，当时的焦点都是刺激和过热。”他指出，投资者现在必须问：“这种新的叙事是正确的吗？”一个？”</blockquote></p><p> The real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.</p><p><blockquote>过去一周真正的痛苦在于美国国债市场，该市场的反弹导致长期收益率大幅下跌，价格上涨。此次上涨很大程度上归因于美国国债空头被迫进行空头回补，他们担心通胀，造成了某种程度的买入狂潮，周四将10年期国债收益率推至1.25%以下的五个月低点，然后最终回落。</blockquote></p><p> But analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .</p><p><blockquote>但分析师表示，此举至少在一定程度上也反映了对全球经济增长前景的合理担忧。</blockquote></p><p> That Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .</p><p><blockquote>周四收益率暴跌以及随之而来的增长担忧引发了股市大范围抛售，标普500和纳斯达克综合指数从历史高点回落，而道琼斯工业平均指数则在盘中低点下跌了500多点。周五股市收盘时收复跌幅，然后走高，三大股指均创历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> One casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.</p><p><blockquote>其中一个受害者是股市通货再膨胀交易。小盘股罗素2000指数RUT（#phrase-company？ref=company%7CRUT；onlineSignificance=passing-mention）连续第二周下跌1.1%，而以科技股为主的纳斯达克100指数周上涨0.4%。价值股表现不佳，罗素1000价值指数下跌0.3%，罗素1000成长指数上涨1%。</blockquote></p><p> \"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.</p><p><blockquote>研究公司凯投宏观(Capital Economics)高级市场经济学家奥利弗·琼斯(Oliver Jones)在周五的一份报告中表示：“‘通货再膨胀’和‘轮换’交易——与对经济从大流行和通胀上升中快速、广泛复苏的乐观情绪相关——可以说早在第一季度末就一直在萎靡不振，但显然受到了打击。”</blockquote></p><p> Sectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.</p><p><blockquote>他指出，从通货再膨胀/轮动叙事中受益最多的能源和金融等行业以及价值等因素表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> Jones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.</p><p><blockquote>琼斯认为，随着供应限制影响经济活动，对美国经济复苏的乐观情绪达到顶峰是有道理的。全球增长预期也可能面临压力，中国经济可能继续令人失望。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，从绝对值来看，美国经济仍有望实现非常强劲的复苏，远远超过2008年全球金融危机后的复苏。他认为，美国的核心通胀可能比预期更加持久。</blockquote></p><p> That sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，这为“轮换/通货再膨胀贸易标签在未来几个季度可能会逐渐变得不那么有用”的情况奠定了基础。</blockquote></p><p> In particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.</p><p><blockquote>他表示，特别是部分交易，包括大多数股市的快速上涨和能源公司的优异表现，目前可能已经结束，而考虑到美国的增长和通胀路径，美国国债收益率的下降可能是“过度反应”。</blockquote></p><p> Investors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>投资者将在未来一周看到通胀和增长方面的证据。6月份消费者价格指数定于周二发布，生产者价格指数定于周三发布。本周将公布大量其他经济数据，包括周五公布的6月份零售销售数据。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> And then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.</p><p><blockquote>然后是企业财报季的开始，预计将迎来另一个高峰，因为与去年大流行初期相比，第二季度的利润大幅增长。</blockquote></p><p> \"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.</p><p><blockquote>LPL Financial首席市场策略师瑞安·德特里克(Ryan Detrick)在周五创纪录的收盘后表示：“随着下周财报季的开始，标准设定得相当高，美国企业界最好再创辉煌的季度，否则可能会出现一些失望的多头。”</blockquote></p><p> Goodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.</p><p><blockquote>古德温表示，投资者的选择可以归结为要么倾向于有利于周期性股票和短期资产的旧说法，要么倾向于预计经济增长将更加低迷和乏力的新说法，就像大流行之前一样，有利于成长型股票和防御性股票部门。</blockquote></p><p> The best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.</p><p><blockquote>然而，古德温说，最好的反应可能是两者兼而有之。</blockquote></p><p> Reflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.</p><p><blockquote>通货再膨胀在短期内可能仍有一定的运行空间。她表示，儿童税收抵免付款的分配将于本月晚些时候开始，而随着儿童重返校园和额外失业救济金到期，劳动力短缺可能会在未来几个月得到缓解，而消费者则坐拥可观的储蓄。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，与此同时，增长和通胀正在见顶，各资产类别的估值都在扩大。她表示，虽然仍保持周期性倾斜，但不断变化的背景为采取更平衡的投资组合方法提供了评级。</blockquote></p><p> Investors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.</p><p><blockquote>她表示，投资者需要在更具选择性的环境中，而不是水涨船高的环境中，密切关注能够利用不断变化的趋势并将价格上涨转嫁给消费者的行业和个别公司。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/a-crazy-week-for-u-s-stocks-came-with-a-change-in-the-market-narrative-should-investors-believe-it-11625865324?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2150053623","content_text":"Investors must decide whether they believe stalling economic growth is a bigger threat than an inflation surge\n\nFears of runaway inflation have been swapped for worries about a rapid slowdown in global economic growth -- and that made for one very long, holiday-shortened week for U.S. investors -- but is this new narrative the right one ?\nA Treasury debt rally became a buying frenzy , sending long-term yields sharply lower. That took any remaining wind out of the sails of the so-called reflation trade, which had favored shares of more cyclically sensitive companies expected to benefit the most from rising prices and accelerating economic growth.\nWhat changed? There are three important elements to the shift in the market narrative, said Lauren Goodwin, economist and portfolio strategist at New York Life Investments, which has $605 billion in assets under management.\nThe first is a perceived change in the way the Federal Reserve reacts to data, with investors no longer looking for policy makers to be as tolerant of economic overheating and rising inflation as previously thought, she said. The second is that while economic growth is expected to remain strong, the pace of growth is expected to have peaked . Third, there are worries the spread of the delta and other variants of the coronavirus that causes COVID-19 could force a renewed round of restrictions that will weigh on global economic activity.\n\"Together, that's a very different consensus market narrative than we had a few weeks ago, when the focus was all about stimulus and overheating,\" Goodwin said, in a phone interview, noting that investors must now ask: \"Is this new narrative the right one?\"\nThe real pain in the past week was in the Treasury market, where a rally drove long-term yields sharply lower and prices higher. Much of that rally was attributed to forced short covering by Treasury bears, who had feared inflation, creating something of a feeding frenzy, driving the 10-year yield to a five-month low below 1.25% on Thursday before finally relenting.\nBut analysts said the move, at least in part, also reflected legitimate concerns over the global economic growth outlook .\nThat Thursday dive in yields, and accompanying growth fears, triggered a broad stock-market selloff that saw the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite retreat from all-time highs, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average shed more than 500 points at its session low. Stocks trimmed losses by the close and then pushed higher Friday, with all three major indexes finishing at records .\nOne casualty was the stock market reflation trade. The small-cap Russell 2000 index RUT (#phrase-company?ref=COMPANY%7CRUT;onlineSignificance=passing-mention) fell 1.1% for a second straight week of losses, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq-100 saw a 0.4% weekly rise. Value stocks underperformed, with the Russell 1000 Value Index falling 0.3%, while the Russell 1000 Growth Index rose 1%.\n\"The 'reflation' and 'rotation' trades -- associated with optimism about rapid, broad-based economic recovery from the pandemic and higher inflation -- has arguably been flagging since as long ago as the end of the first quarter, but clearly took another hit this week,\" said Oliver Jones, senior markets economist at research firm Capital Economics, in a Friday note.\nSectors, like energy and financials, and factors, such as value, that benefited most from the reflation/rotation narrative have underperformed, he noted.\nJones argued that it makes sense for optimism about the U.S. economic recovery to top out as supply constraints bite into activity. And global growth expectations may also see pressure, with China's economy likely to continue to disappoint.\nAt the same time, the U.S. economy remains on track for a very strong recovery in absolute terms, far exceeding the one that followed the global financial crisis of 2008. And core inflation in the U.S. may prove somewhat more persistent than anticipated, he argued.\nThat sets the stage for a scenario in which \"the rotation/reflation trade label may become progressively less useful in the coming quarters,\" he said.\nIn particular, parts of the trade, including rapid gains in most stock markets and outperformance by energy companies is likely over for now, he said, while the drop in Treasury yields is probably an \"overreaction\" given the path of growth and inflation in the U.S.\nInvestors will get a look at evidence on both the inflation and growth front in the coming week. The June consumer-price index is set for release Tuesday, while a producer-price reading is set for Wednesday. A raft of other economic data is due over the course of the week, including June retail sales figures on Friday.\nAnd then there's the start of the corporate earnings reporting season, which is expected to offer another peak as profits roared in the second quarter relative to the early days of the pandemic last year.\n\"With earnings season kicking off next week, the bar is set quite high and corporate America better produce another stellar quarter or there could be some disappointed bulls,\" said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at LPL Financial, after Friday's record close.\nGoodwin said the choice for investors boils down to either leaning into the old narrative that benefits cyclical stocks and shorter duration assets or the new one that expects economic growth to prove more sluggish and anemic, much as it was before the pandemic, favoring growth stocks and defensive sectors.\nThe best response, however, may be a little bit of both, Goodwin said.\nReflation likely still has some room to run in the near term. Distribution of child tax credit payments will begin later this month, while labor shortages may be alleviated in coming months as children return to school and additional unemployment benefits expire, she said, while consumers are sitting on sizable savings.\nAt the same time, growth and inflation are peaking, she said, and valuations are stretched across asset classes. While still maintaining a cyclical tilt, the changing backdrop calls for a more balanced approach to portfolios, she said.\nInvestors need to look closely at sectors and individual companies that can leverage changing trends and pass rising prices on to consumers, she said, in a more selective environment rather than one in which a rising tide raises all boats.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3291,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":106233141,"gmtCreate":1620121386983,"gmtModify":1634207663250,"author":{"id":"3582108671334900","authorId":"3582108671334900","name":"joyciology","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd90c4b20dfdf9210ef5daec9af84af3","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3582108671334900","idStr":"3582108671334900"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Whyy","listText":"Whyy","text":"Whyy","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/106233141","repostId":"1157490418","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1157490418","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1620120727,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1157490418?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-05-04 17:32","market":"us","language":"en","title":"After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>继昨天飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157490418","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(May 4) After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading.What happenedShares ","content":"<p><p style=\"text-align:left;\">(May 4)&nbsp;After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align:left;\">（5月4日）继昨日飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%。</p></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231cd8867b2a322ce48be7afd711946c\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>(NASDAQ:OCGN)surged 23.8% on Monday after thebiotechnologycompany released promising data from a study of Covaxin, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate it hopes to bring to the U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>奥库根</b>（纳斯达克：OCGN）周一飙升23.8%，此前这家生物技术公司发布了Covaxin研究的有希望的数据，该公司希望将Covaxin引入美国市场。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p>Researchers at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - National Institute of Virology believe Covaxin could protect against multiple coronavirus strains. Covaxin appeared to be effective against a variant from Brazil known as B.1.128.2. A previous study indicated that Covaxin could also protect against variants from the U.K. and India.</p><p><blockquote>印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）-国家病毒学研究所的研究人员认为，科瓦克辛可以预防多种冠状病毒株。科瓦克辛似乎对来自巴西的一种名为B.1.128.2的变种有效。此前的一项研究表明，科瓦克辛还可以预防来自英国和印度的变种。</blockquote></p><p>\"Covaxin continues to show strong results in all the studies conducted to date,\" Ocugen co-founder and CEO Dr. Shankar Musunuri said in a press release. \"We continue to believe this vaccine is a critical tool to include in our national arsenal to fight this pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen联合创始人兼首席执行官Shankar Musunuri博士在一份新闻稿中表示：“科瓦克辛在迄今为止进行的所有研究中继续显示出强劲的结果。”“我们仍然相信，这种疫苗是我们国家武器库中抗击这一流行病的重要工具。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p>Musunuri said Ocugen submitted a comprehensive drug master file to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The company is also preparing its application for an Emergency Use Authorization. Ocugen's agreement with its drug development partner, India-based Bharat Biotech, gives it a 45% share of any profits from the sale of Covaxin in the U.S., should it gain regulatory authorization.</p><p><blockquote>Musunuri表示，Ocugen向美国提交了一份全面的药物主文件。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）。该公司还在准备紧急使用授权的申请。Ocugen与其药物开发合作伙伴、总部位于印度的Bharat Biotech达成的协议规定，如果获得监管授权，该公司将获得在美国销售科瓦克辛利润的45%份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>继昨天飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nAfter surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading<blockquote>继昨天飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-05-04 17:32</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><p style=\"text-align:left;\">(May 4)&nbsp;After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote><p style=\"text-align:left;\">（5月4日）继昨日飙升近24%后，OCGN在盘前交易中下跌4%。</p></blockquote></p><p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/231cd8867b2a322ce48be7afd711946c\" tg-width=\"633\" tg-height=\"479\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么</b></blockquote></p><p>Shares of&nbsp;<b>Ocugen</b>(NASDAQ:OCGN)surged 23.8% on Monday after thebiotechnologycompany released promising data from a study of Covaxin, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate it hopes to bring to the U.S. market.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b>奥库根</b>（纳斯达克：OCGN）周一飙升23.8%，此前这家生物技术公司发布了Covaxin研究的有希望的数据，该公司希望将Covaxin引入美国市场。</blockquote></p><p><b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p>Researchers at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - National Institute of Virology believe Covaxin could protect against multiple coronavirus strains. Covaxin appeared to be effective against a variant from Brazil known as B.1.128.2. A previous study indicated that Covaxin could also protect against variants from the U.K. and India.</p><p><blockquote>印度医学研究委员会（ICMR）-国家病毒学研究所的研究人员认为，科瓦克辛可以预防多种冠状病毒株。科瓦克辛似乎对来自巴西的一种名为B.1.128.2的变种有效。此前的一项研究表明，科瓦克辛还可以预防来自英国和印度的变种。</blockquote></p><p>\"Covaxin continues to show strong results in all the studies conducted to date,\" Ocugen co-founder and CEO Dr. Shankar Musunuri said in a press release. \"We continue to believe this vaccine is a critical tool to include in our national arsenal to fight this pandemic.\"</p><p><blockquote>Ocugen联合创始人兼首席执行官Shankar Musunuri博士在一份新闻稿中表示：“科瓦克辛在迄今为止进行的所有研究中继续显示出强劲的结果。”“我们仍然相信，这种疫苗是我们国家武器库中抗击这一流行病的重要工具。”</blockquote></p><p><b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在怎么办</b></blockquote></p><p>Musunuri said Ocugen submitted a comprehensive drug master file to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The company is also preparing its application for an Emergency Use Authorization. Ocugen's agreement with its drug development partner, India-based Bharat Biotech, gives it a 45% share of any profits from the sale of Covaxin in the U.S., should it gain regulatory authorization.</p><p><blockquote>Musunuri表示，Ocugen向美国提交了一份全面的药物主文件。美国食品药品监督管理局（FDA）。该公司还在准备紧急使用授权的申请。Ocugen与其药物开发合作伙伴、总部位于印度的Bharat Biotech达成的协议规定，如果获得监管授权，该公司将获得在美国销售科瓦克辛利润的45%份额。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"OCGN":"Ocugen"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157490418","content_text":"(May 4) After surging nearly 24% yesterday, OCGN dipped 4% in premarket trading.What happenedShares of Ocugen(NASDAQ:OCGN)surged 23.8% on Monday after thebiotechnologycompany released promising data from a study of Covaxin, the COVID-19 vaccine candidate it hopes to bring to the U.S. market.So whatResearchers at the Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR) - National Institute of Virology believe Covaxin could protect against multiple coronavirus strains. Covaxin appeared to be effective against a variant from Brazil known as B.1.128.2. A previous study indicated that Covaxin could also protect against variants from the U.K. and India.\"Covaxin continues to show strong results in all the studies conducted to date,\" Ocugen co-founder and CEO Dr. Shankar Musunuri said in a press release. \"We continue to believe this vaccine is a critical tool to include in our national arsenal to fight this pandemic.\"Now whatMusunuri said Ocugen submitted a comprehensive drug master file to the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA). The company is also preparing its application for an Emergency Use Authorization. Ocugen's agreement with its drug development partner, India-based Bharat Biotech, gives it a 45% share of any profits from the sale of Covaxin in the U.S., should it gain regulatory authorization.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"OCGN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}