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2021-06-24

Nice

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2021-06-30

Pls like

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2021-06-28

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Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>

2021-07-06

Comment

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2021-06-27

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2021-06-26

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2021-06-29

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2021-06-24

Nice

Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰尾盘引发加息和缩减开支言论</blockquote>

2021-06-24

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2021-07-01

$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$good

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15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127051489,"gmtCreate":1624806325441,"gmtModify":1633948468743,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127051489","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124028020,"gmtCreate":1624709519260,"gmtModify":1631887612683,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151162568","repostId":"1105779613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1615,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127459949,"gmtCreate":1624865533881,"gmtModify":1633947780637,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127459949","repostId":"1103137872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle<blockquote>星巴克-太热而无法处理</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 15:31</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>  <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>  <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>星巴克仍然是全球领先的全球咖啡特许经营店。</li><li>该公司受到了疫情的沉重打击，但该公司继续开设商店，以推动疫情后的进一步增长。</li><li>即使我假设明年每股收益为4美元，估值看起来也很高，太高了，看不到巨大的吸引力。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>mysondanube/iStock社论来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b>&nbsp;has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p><p><blockquote><b>星巴克(SBUX)</b>至少其股价表现相当有弹性，因为尽管经营条件非常具有挑战性，但该业务仍表现良好。这家领先咖啡公司的股价在疫情爆发前达到近100美元的峰值，在最初走低后，股价出现了非常稳定的复苏，目前交易价格为每股113美元，仅比近期和历史高点上涨5%。</blockquote></p><p> While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p><p><blockquote>虽然2021年的盈利能力将与2019年持平，增长也以令人信服的方式回归，但我仍然认为，尽管特许经营的质量无可争议，但估值太高，看不到任何吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p><p><blockquote><b>流行病——大受欢迎，也是救世主</b></blockquote></p><p> Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克很早就认识到了疫情的影响，因为它在中国拥有规模庞大的业务，而且由于疫情比美国和欧洲早几个月爆发，因此很早就感受到了影响。</blockquote></p><p> Starbucks's second quarter fiscal&nbsp;results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p><p><blockquote>星巴克第二季度财报（相当于2020年第一季度）销售额下降5%。第三季度业绩显示了疫情的真正影响，销售额下降了38%，因为再多的成本控制也无法维持盈利能力，因为该公司在非常具有挑战性的情况下出现了相当大但同时非常可控的亏损。当时的条件。</blockquote></p><p> On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>去年许多西方国家夏季重新开业后，收入大幅复苏，本财年最后一个季度仅下降了8%。在惨淡的第二季度业绩之后，全年收入下降了11%，至192亿美元，但盈利遭受的打击要大得多，营业利润下降了60%以上，至略高于15亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p><p><blockquote>事实上，几乎所有收入的绝对下降都转化为对营业收入线的一对一影响，包括重组成本上升、折旧费用稳定或略有增加，以及在许多修改和安全措施中商店费用略有增加。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p><p><blockquote>截至本财年末，净债务为115亿美元。该公司在2019财年公布的调整后EBITDA约为60亿美元，但EBITDA数字远接近35亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p><p><blockquote>到去年10月公布这些业绩时，股价已经反弹至80多岁，这既转化为基于调整后每股1.17美元利润的高市盈率，也转化为调整后每股2.83美元的高市盈率。即使根据2019年的收益，股价也是30倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A Big Recovery</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大复苏</b></blockquote></p><p> At the start of 2021 the company&nbsp;posted&nbsp;first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p><p><blockquote>2021年初，该公司公布了本财年第一季度业绩，由于该公司尚未克服疫情的影响，销售额下降了6%以上。该公司重申了全年指引，要求销售额中值为285亿美元，每股收益中值为2.80美元，尽管本日历年有53周，这使得指引假设这一事实增加了10美分。</blockquote></p><p> The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度业绩显示收入增长8%，随着西方经济体逐渐重新开放，这相当令人欣慰。此外，这并不是一个容易比较的情况，因为2020年第二季度的第二季度收入仅下降了5%，因此我们实际上看到了与2019年季度相比的增长。在稳健业绩的支持下，该公司将全年销售指引上调至289亿美元的中点。此外，盈利指引的中点已上调15美分，至每股2.95美元。</blockquote></p><p> Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p><p><blockquote>在经历了今年前两个季度相对疲软之后，净债务降至约100亿美元。今年净利润约为35亿美元，在加上约15亿美元的折旧费用以及数亿美元的利息和税收后，EBITDA应该会达到或超过2019年60亿美元的EBITDA数字。从这个意义上说，杠杆是非常适中的，当然也没什么大不了的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p><p><blockquote>根据目前每股113美元的股价计算，估值约为今年市盈率的38倍。然而，下半年的市盈率约为每股2美元，这可能意味着明年每股收益有可能跃升至4美元。这种盈利能力将预期市盈率降低至28倍。基于这个数字，倍数仍然很高，因为我意识到这可能需要一年的时间才能实现。</blockquote></p><p> I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p><p><blockquote>我猜上述原因很可能是潘兴广场的阿克曼先生今年早些时候抛售股票的考虑因素。虽然今年每股收益3美元的数字是一致的，而且如果疫情消退，明年每股收益将达到4美元，但我看不到真正的触发因素。</blockquote></p><p> Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p><p><blockquote>基于这样的盈利能力，我认为这里的估值肯定看起来很满，太满了，我看不到吸引力，尽管我对这个非常高质量的特许经营权的质量和长期潜力毫不怀疑。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SBUX":"星巴克"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":470,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154551637,"gmtCreate":1625535719129,"gmtModify":1633939896129,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154551637","repostId":"1116255026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1446,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127051489,"gmtCreate":1624806325441,"gmtModify":1633948468743,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127051489","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":369,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124023589,"gmtCreate":1624709410541,"gmtModify":1633949386229,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124023589","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":670,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159912462,"gmtCreate":1624935554556,"gmtModify":1633946774824,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159912462","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":477,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128211713,"gmtCreate":1624518112332,"gmtModify":1634004949821,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128211713","repostId":"1149718989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149718989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624517302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149718989?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰尾盘引发加息和缩减开支言论</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149718989","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under ","content":"<p>Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery and<b>that \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again</b>...</p><p><blockquote>丑陋的PMI（服务业复苏崩溃），甚至更丑陋的房地产数据表明，在“出色”复苏的表面下，一切都不太好<b>“软”数据和硬数据之间充满“希望”的差距将再次缩小</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> But markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.</p><p><blockquote>但随着鲍威尔鸽派承诺的回声在他们的额叶皮层回荡，市场对此不屑一顾。</blockquote></p><p> While Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&amp;P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...</p><p><blockquote>而小盘股则做着疯狂的事情；道琼斯指数、S&amp;P指数和纳斯达克指数全天都在非常狭窄的区间内波动...直到这件事发生...</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,</b>said Dallas Fed President&nbsp;Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.    “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think  <b>we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,</b>” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.    “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.    <b>“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later</b>so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”  And the selling began sending The Dow, S&amp;P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...</p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济可能会比人们想象的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买的门槛，</b>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，他预计明年将加息。“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生——宜早不宜迟——我认为我们正在经受住大流行的考验<b>从风险管理的角度来看，我们最好开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买，</b>”卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示。卡普兰说：“如果我们进行这些购买的时间超过了必要的时间，对我来说，实际上可能会降低我们调整利率的灵活性。”<b>“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿开始缩减规模，宜早不宜迟</b>这样我们就可以更灵活地决定未来的利率。”抛售开始导致道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数当天出现亏损...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...</p><p><blockquote>自上周FOMC声明之前以来，道琼斯指数和小盘股均出现亏损，而纳斯达克则表现出色...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> VIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...</p><p><blockquote>VIX盘中跌至14手柄...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is how quiet it was...</p><p><blockquote>这就是它有多安静...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率也没有快速上升，最终在当天上升了1-2个基点（10年期国债收益率与FOMC之前持平）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...</p><p><blockquote>虽然美元大幅下跌，但它以惊人的下跌结束...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>There were some fireworks of note.</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>有一些值得注意的烟火。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Fannie &amp; Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...</p><p><blockquote>房利美和房地美被斯科特的裁决摧毁了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Crypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...</p><p><blockquote>加密货币在回吐隔夜涨幅后小幅收高。比特币在下滑前曾短暂触及35,000美元...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> WTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...</p><p><blockquote>WTI因欧佩克+产量、库存和疲软数据而上下波动...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...</p><p><blockquote>黄金遵循了类似的轨迹——结束unch...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally,&nbsp;<b>we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels</b>...</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>我们注意到，衡量市场恐惧的真正指标——隐含相关性——已经崩溃，最终恢复到新冠疫情前的水平</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>The implied correlation,</b></u>a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,<b>the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names</b>(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). The<b>higher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move</b><i>(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).</i></p><p><blockquote><u><b>隐含的相关性，</b></u>我们过去详细讨论过的一个主题是量化指数波动性与指数中名称的基础波动性总和之间的差异。简而言之，<b>隐含相关性衡量即时液体指数宏观保护相对于其基础名称的相对需求</b>（一种更慢、更少液体的保护自己的方法）。The<b>相关性越高，出现非常显著的系统性下行的风险就越大</b><i>（因为当系统性不良事件发生时，相关性往往接近1）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -</i><i><b>implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i>通过隐含地衡量市场对这种相对保护的需求——及其隐含的下行风险情绪——</i><i><b>隐含相关性更适合作为投资者情绪的衡量标准...现在和以前一样自满。</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk<blockquote>美联储卡普兰尾盘引发加息和缩减开支言论</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-24 14:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery and<b>that \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again</b>...</p><p><blockquote>丑陋的PMI（服务业复苏崩溃），甚至更丑陋的房地产数据表明，在“出色”复苏的表面下，一切都不太好<b>“软”数据和硬数据之间充满“希望”的差距将再次缩小</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> But markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.</p><p><blockquote>但随着鲍威尔鸽派承诺的回声在他们的额叶皮层回荡，市场对此不屑一顾。</blockquote></p><p> While Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&amp;P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...</p><p><blockquote>而小盘股则做着疯狂的事情；道琼斯指数、S&amp;P指数和纳斯达克指数全天都在非常狭窄的区间内波动...直到这件事发生...</blockquote></p><p>   <b>The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,</b>said Dallas Fed President&nbsp;Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.    “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think  <b>we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,</b>” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.    “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.    <b>“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later</b>so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”  And the selling began sending The Dow, S&amp;P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...</p><p><blockquote><b>美国经济可能会比人们想象的更早达到美联储缩减资产购买的门槛，</b>达拉斯联储主席罗伯特·卡普兰表示，他预计明年将加息。“随着我们取得实质性的进一步进展，我认为这将比人们预期的更快发生——宜早不宜迟——我认为我们正在经受住大流行的考验<b>从风险管理的角度来看，我们最好开始调整这些国债和抵押贷款支持证券的购买，</b>”卡普兰周三在接受彭博新闻社采访时表示。卡普兰说：“如果我们进行这些购买的时间超过了必要的时间，对我来说，实际上可能会降低我们调整利率的灵活性。”<b>“假设我们满足条件，我宁愿开始缩减规模，宜早不宜迟</b>这样我们就可以更灵活地决定未来的利率。”抛售开始导致道琼斯指数、标准普尔指数和纳斯达克指数当天出现亏损...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Since just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...</p><p><blockquote>自上周FOMC声明之前以来，道琼斯指数和小盘股均出现亏损，而纳斯达克则表现出色...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> VIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...</p><p><blockquote>VIX盘中跌至14手柄...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This is how quiet it was...</p><p><blockquote>这就是它有多安静...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Treasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...</p><p><blockquote>美国国债收益率也没有快速上升，最终在当天上升了1-2个基点（10年期国债收益率与FOMC之前持平）...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> And while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...</p><p><blockquote>虽然美元大幅下跌，但它以惊人的下跌结束...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>There were some fireworks of note.</b></u></p><p><blockquote><u><b>有一些值得注意的烟火。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> Fannie &amp; Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...</p><p><blockquote>房利美和房地美被斯科特的裁决摧毁了...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Crypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...</p><p><blockquote>加密货币在回吐隔夜涨幅后小幅收高。比特币在下滑前曾短暂触及35,000美元...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> WTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...</p><p><blockquote>WTI因欧佩克+产量、库存和疲软数据而上下波动...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Gold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...</p><p><blockquote>黄金遵循了类似的轨迹——结束unch...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally,&nbsp;<b>we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels</b>...</p><p><blockquote>最后，<b>我们注意到，衡量市场恐惧的真正指标——隐含相关性——已经崩溃，最终恢复到新冠疫情前的水平</b>...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <u><b>The implied correlation,</b></u>a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,<b>the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names</b>(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). The<b>higher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move</b><i>(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).</i></p><p><blockquote><u><b>隐含的相关性，</b></u>我们过去详细讨论过的一个主题是量化指数波动性与指数中名称的基础波动性总和之间的差异。简而言之，<b>隐含相关性衡量即时液体指数宏观保护相对于其基础名称的相对需求</b>（一种更慢、更少液体的保护自己的方法）。The<b>相关性越高，出现非常显著的系统性下行的风险就越大</b><i>（因为当系统性不良事件发生时，相关性往往接近1）。</i></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> <i>By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -</i><i><b>implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i>通过隐含地衡量市场对这种相对保护的需求——及其隐含的下行风险情绪——</i><i><b>隐含相关性更适合作为投资者情绪的衡量标准...现在和以前一样自满。</b></i></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149718989","content_text":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again...\nSource: Bloomberg\nBut markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.\nWhile Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...\n\nThe U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n\n\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n\n\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n\n\n“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n\nAnd the selling began sending The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...\n\nSince just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...\n\nVIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...\n\nThis is how quiet it was...\nSource: Bloomberg\nTreasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThere were some fireworks of note.\nFannie & Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCrypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...\n\nGold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...\nFinally, we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThe implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).\nSource: Bloomberg\nBy implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":416,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128216098,"gmtCreate":1624518158014,"gmtModify":1634004949348,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128216098","repostId":"1185713985","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":223,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":158220477,"gmtCreate":1625151834299,"gmtModify":1631887612642,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":12,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFA.SI\">$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$</a>good","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CFA.SI\">$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$</a>good","text":"$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5262487ee1e7e9fd81bb56e43123f8ce","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/158220477","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1593,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}