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Royc
2021-07-14
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-07-06
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-07-06
Comment
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-07-04
Good good
Royc
2021-07-04
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-07-03
Good buy
Royc
2021-07-03
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-07-02
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-07-01
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
good
Royc
2021-06-30
Pls like
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-06-30
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-06-29
$Starbucks(SBUX)$
Good
Royc
2021-06-29
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
Good
Royc
2021-06-29
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-06-28
Good
Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle
Royc
2021-06-27
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-06-26
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
good
Royc
2021-06-26
Good
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-06-25
Ok
抱歉，原内容已删除
Royc
2021-06-24
$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$
good
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REIT(CFA.SI)$</a>Good","text":"$NikkoAM-STC Asia REIT(CFA.SI)$Good","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/5eb0df297efc5447baaf34b9c0f986b6","width":"1125","height":"1949"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159915410","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":360,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159912462,"gmtCreate":1624935554556,"gmtModify":1633946774824,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159912462","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127459949,"gmtCreate":1624865533881,"gmtModify":1633947780637,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127459949","repostId":"1103137872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>\n <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>\n <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b> has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p>\n<p>While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p>\n<p><b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p>\n<p>Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p>\n<p>Starbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p>\n<p>On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p>\n<p>In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p>\n<p>Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p>\n<p>By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p>\n<p><b>A Big Recovery</b></p>\n<p>At the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p>\n<p>The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p>\n<p>Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p>\n<p>Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p>\n<p>I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p>\n<p>Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 15:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127051489,"gmtCreate":1624806325441,"gmtModify":1633948468743,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127051489","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124028020,"gmtCreate":1624709519260,"gmtModify":1631887612683,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584342633238829","idStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/151162568","repostId":"1105779613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1141,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127459949,"gmtCreate":1624865533881,"gmtModify":1633947780637,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127459949","repostId":"1103137872","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1103137872","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624865492,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1103137872?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 15:31","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1103137872","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p>\n<ul>\n <li>Starbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.</li>\n <li>The company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.</li>\n <li>Even if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.</li>\n</ul>\n<p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/860ea0c3c4fcf2d5047e8c0a528096df\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1021\"><span>mysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p>\n<p><b>Starbucks (SBUX)</b> has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.</p>\n<p>While 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.</p>\n<p><b>Pandemic - A Hit, And Savior</b></p>\n<p>Starbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.</p>\n<p>Starbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.</p>\n<p>On the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.</p>\n<p>In fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.</p>\n<p>Net debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.</p>\n<p>By the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.</p>\n<p><b>A Big Recovery</b></p>\n<p>At the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.</p>\n<p>The second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.</p>\n<p>Net debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.</p>\n<p>Based on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.</p>\n<p>I guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.</p>\n<p>Based on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.</p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Starbucks - Too Hot To Handle</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStarbucks - Too Hot To Handle\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-28 15:31 GMT+8 <a href=https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle><strong>seekingalpha</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436869-starbucks-too-hot-to-handle","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1103137872","content_text":"Summary\n\nStarbucks continues to be the leading global coffee franchise across the globe.\nThe company has been hit hard by the pandemic, but the company continues to open stores to drive further growth post the pandemic.\nEven if I assume an optimistic $4 earnings per share number next year, valuations look high, too high to see great appeal here.\n\nmysondanube/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nStarbucks (SBUX) has been quite resilient, at least its shares, as the business has done quite well despite very challenging operating conditions. Shares of the leading coffee player peaked at nearly $100 ahead of the pandemic and after an initial move lower, shares have seen a very steady recovery as they currently trade at $113 per share, just 5% from recent and all-time-highs.\nWhile 2021 is set to match 2019 in terms of the earnings power and growth has returned in a convincing way, I still think that despite the undisputed quality of the franchise, valuations are too high to see any appeal here.\nPandemic - A Hit, And Savior\nStarbucks was early to recognize the impact of the pandemic as it has sizeable Chinese operations of course, and with the pandemic breaking out a few months earlier than was the case in the US and Europe, the impact was early felt.\nStarbucks's second quarter fiscal results, corresponding to the first quarter of the calendar year of 2020, saw sales fall 5%. The third quarter results showed the real impact of the pandemic with sales down 38% as no amount of cost control was able to maintain profitability, as the company posted a sizeable, yet at the same time very manageable loss on the back of the very challenging conditions at the time.\nOn the back of the summer reopening in many Western nations last year, revenues recovered in a big way, down just 8% in the final quarter of the fiscal year. After the dismal second quarter results, full year revenues were down 11% to $19.2 billion, yet earnings took a far larger beating with operating earnings down more than 60%, to just over $1.5 billion.\nIn fact, almost all the absolute decline in revenues translated into a one-on-one impact on the operating income line amidst higher restructuring costs, stable, or slightly increasing depreciation charges, and store expenses up a bit amidst the many modifications and safety measures taken.\nNet debt stood at $11.5 billion by the end of the fiscal year. That is quite a bit after the company posted adjusted EBITDA of around $6.0 billion in the fiscal year of 2019, but the EBITDA number came in much closer to $3.5 billion.\nBy the time these results were announced back in October of last year, shares had rebounded to the high-eighties already, which translated both into a high earnings multiple based on the adjusted profits of $1.17 per share, and even on the adjusted earnings of $2.83 per share a year earlier. Even based on the 2019 earnings, shares traded at a 30 times multiple.\nA Big Recovery\nAt the start of 2021 the company posted first quarter results for its fiscal year with sales down more than 6% as the company was not yet lapping the impact of the pandemic. The company reiterated the full year guidance, calling for sales at a midpoint of $28.5 billion with earnings seen at a midpoint of $2.80 per share, although the fact that this calendar year counts 53 weeks, makes that the guidance assumes a ten cent boost from that fact.\nThe second quarter results revealed 8% revenue growth, which is quite comforting as Western economies were gradually opening up again. Moreover, this is not the case of easily comparisons, as second quarter revenues were down just 5% in the second quarter of 2020, so we actually see growth now vs the quarterly period in 2019. On the back of the solid results, the company has hiked the full year sales guidance to a midpoint of $28.9 billion. Moreover, the midpoint of the earnings guidance has been hiked by fifteen cents to $2.95 per share.\nNet debt is down to roughly $10 billion after these relatively softer first two quarters of the year. With net earnings seen at around $3.5 billion this year, and after adding back approximately $1.5 billion in depreciation expenses, as well as a few hundred million in interest and taxes, EBITDA should match or surpass the $6 billion EBITDA number from 2019. In that sense, leverage is very modest, and certainly no concern.\nBased on the current share price of $113 per share, valuations come in around 38 times earnings seen this year. However, the earnings rate based on the second half of the year is seen around $2 per share, which might imply potential for earnings to jump towards $4 per share next year. Such earnings power reduces expectations to 28 times forward earnings. Based on that number, the multiple is still elevated, as I realize that it will take a year before this might be realized.\nI guess the reasons mentioned above are likely the considerations why Mr. Ackman from Pershing Square sold out of the stock earlier this year. While the $3 earnings per share number for this year is conformed, and there is a real roadmap for earnings of $4 per share next year if the pandemic fades, I fail to see real triggers from here.\nBased on such earnings power I think that valuations certainly look full here, too full for me to see appeal, although I have no doubts whatsoever on the quality and long term potential of this very high quality franchise.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SBUX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":134,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154551637,"gmtCreate":1625535719129,"gmtModify":1633939896129,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Comment","listText":"Comment","text":"Comment","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154551637","repostId":"1116255026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1031,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":127051489,"gmtCreate":1624806325441,"gmtModify":1633948468743,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/127051489","repostId":"1172710941","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":305,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":124023589,"gmtCreate":1624709410541,"gmtModify":1633949386229,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/124023589","repostId":"1164137597","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":289,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":159912462,"gmtCreate":1624935554556,"gmtModify":1633946774824,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/159912462","repostId":"2147837316","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":222,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":128211713,"gmtCreate":1624518112332,"gmtModify":1634004949821,"author":{"id":"3584342633238829","authorId":"3584342633238829","name":"Royc","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f440f51c830ab5b841dbad3b96e75869","crmLevel":4,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584342633238829","authorIdStr":"3584342633238829"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/128211713","repostId":"1149718989","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1149718989","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624517302,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1149718989?lang=&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-24 14:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1149718989","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under ","content":"<p>Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery and<b>that \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again</b>...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8cda4e45787d67eefabc511b96083584\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"269\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>But markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.</p>\n<p>While Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...</p>\n<blockquote>\n <b>The U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,</b>said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n <b>we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,</b>” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n</blockquote>\n<blockquote>\n <b>“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than later</b>so that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n</blockquote>\n<p>And the selling began sending The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/1ff6694249b9bc71839f52b6b4221e57\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"761\"></p>\n<p>Since just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d9ab62307fd701a7ab69ea9d772ed6ea\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"667\"></p>\n<p>VIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/25cceb65d19453c8bd0cec9f673a2a99\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"782\"></p>\n<p>This is how quiet it was...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/07bd1728d85768e3bc4ec5e53ee63fe0\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>Treasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/85fc3af45e9ec12cc01327005d47223c\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"516\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>And while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/002248d3c60d4616effa79b22bcbba39\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"514\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p><u><b>There were some fireworks of note.</b></u></p>\n<p>Fannie & Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7d7353fdc764bafc58ecf791e51d0d0d\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"533\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>Crypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4348d98ab45cf55f88e39c2ccbbb76eb\" tg-width=\"948\" tg-height=\"517\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p>WTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/43b39fa8873078835dc92bf743a297bd\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"785\"></p>\n<p>Gold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e11d5501a7275e2733649b66a1a2b514\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"786\">Finally, <b>we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels</b>...</p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6258cfa0f1351cffb809304fb9436c80\" tg-width=\"983\" tg-height=\"530\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p><u><b>The implied correlation,</b></u>a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,<b>the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names</b>(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). The<b>higher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move</b><i>(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).</i></p>\n<p><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6bd8ff388a778bddfd2c365dc4c45b55\" tg-width=\"976\" tg-height=\"506\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p>\n<p><i>By implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -</i><i><b>implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever been.</b></i></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Fed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk</title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 11px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;line-height: 11px;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFed's Kaplan Sparks Late-Day Dump On Rate-Hike, Taper Talk\n</h2>\n\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n\n\n2021-06-24 14:48 GMT+8 <a href=https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day><strong>zerohedge</strong></a>\n\n\n</h4>\n\n</header>\n<article>\n<div>\n<p>Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is ...</p>\n\n<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day\">Web Link</a>\n\n</div>\n\n\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-bonds-dollar-shrug-dismal-data-oddly-quiet-day","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1149718989","content_text":"Ugly PMIs (Services recovery collapsed), and even uglier housing data suggest all is not well under the surface of the \"excellent\" recovery andthat \"hope\"-filled gap between 'soft' and hard data is set to slump again...\nSource: Bloomberg\nBut markets just shrugged it off as the echoes of Powell's dovish promises bounced around their frontal cortexes.\nWhile Small Caps did their manic thing; The Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq all trod water all day in a very narrow range... UNTIL this happened...\n\nThe U.S. economy will likely meet the Federal Reserve’s threshold for tapering its asset purchases sooner than people think,said Dallas Fed President Robert Kaplan, who has penciled in an interest-rate increase next year.\n\n\n “As we make substantial further progress, which I think will happen sooner than people expect -- sooner rather than later -- and we’re weathering the pandemic, I think\n we’d be far better off, from a risk-management point of view, beginning to adjust these purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities,” Kaplan said Wednesday in an interview with Bloomberg News.\n\n\n “If we do these purchases longer than might be necessary, for me it actually may reduce our flexibility in adjusting rates,” Kaplan said.\n\n\n“I’d rather start tapering, assuming we meet our conditions, sooner rather than laterso that we have more flexibility in deciding what we want to do on rates down the road.”\n\nAnd the selling began sending The Dow, S&P and Nasdaq into the red for the day...\n\nSince just before the FOMC statement last week, The Dow and Small Caps are in the red and Nasdaq the big outperformer...\n\nVIX fell to a 14 handle intraday...\n\nThis is how quiet it was...\nSource: Bloomberg\nTreasury yields also went nowhere fast, eventually rising 1-2bps across the curve on the day (10Y now unchanged from pre-FOMC)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nAnd while the dollar chopped around, it ended spectacularly unch...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThere were some fireworks of note.\nFannie & Freddie were destroyed by SCOTUS ruling...\nSource: Bloomberg\nCrypto ended very marginally higher after giving back some overnight gains. Bitcoin briefly touched $35k before sliding...\nSource: Bloomberg\nWTI whipped higher and lower on OPEC+ production, inventories, and weak data...\n\nGold followed a similar trajectory - ending unch...\nFinally, we note that the real measure of market fear - implied correlation - has collapsed, finally reverting to pre-COVID levels...\nSource: Bloomberg\nThe implied correlation,a topic we have discussed in the past at length, quantifies the difference between the index's volatility and the summation of the underlying volatility of the names in an index. In a nutshell,the implied correlation measures the relative demand for instant liquid index macro protection relative to its underlying names(a slower less liquid way to protect yourself). Thehigher the correlation, the greater the risk of a very significant systemic downside move(since correlations tend to approach 1 when systemically bad events occur).\nSource: Bloomberg\nBy implicitly measuring the market's demand for this relative protection - and its implicit downside risk sentiment -implied correlation is much more applicable as a measure of investor sentiment... which right now is about as complacent as its ever 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