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2021-06-28

Great ariticle, would you like to share it?

Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Wow

Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Noice

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2021-06-28

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2021-06-21

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3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>

2021-06-21

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-17

Nice

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2021-06-16

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'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多 Stimmies”——美国 5 月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Superb

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2021-06-16

Wow

FOMC Preview: "It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Nice

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-15

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Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380483,"gmtCreate":1624887391442,"gmtModify":1633947503718,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380483","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380040,"gmtCreate":1624887375380,"gmtModify":1633947504328,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380040","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150317101,"gmtCreate":1624887361903,"gmtModify":1633947505035,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150317101","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279680,"gmtCreate":1624219072340,"gmtModify":1634009423515,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279680","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279960,"gmtCreate":1624218962950,"gmtModify":1634009424009,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279960","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163135519,"gmtCreate":1623861918631,"gmtModify":1634026813413,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135519","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1801,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163135177,"gmtCreate":1623861901899,"gmtModify":1634026813740,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135177","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160120190,"gmtCreate":1623775444910,"gmtModify":1634028385450,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160120190","repostId":"1175229651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175229651","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623761854,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175229651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多 Stimmies”——美国 5 月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175229651","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in ret","content":"<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏维持消费梦想的动力，分析师预计零售额将下降 0.8%（<i>证实美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟，暴跌1.3%……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>“更干净”的前汽车印刷品数量也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌 0.7%（比预期的 0.4% 改善要差得多）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示零售总体利率为 -1.4%，最终为 -1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，除汽车外零售额为 -0.6%，最终为 -0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆跌幅最大（如上所述）。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消失，疯狂的同比竞争也会缓解……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到零售库存（供应）相对于零售销售（需求）已达到历史新低……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储将如何解读？暂时性供应短缺？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多 Stimmies”——美国 5 月份零售额暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多 Stimmies”——美国 5 月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏维持消费梦想的动力，分析师预计零售额将下降 0.8%（<i>证实美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟，暴跌1.3%……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>“更干净”的前汽车印刷品数量也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌 0.7%（比预期的 0.4% 改善要差得多）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示零售总体利率为 -1.4%，最终为 -1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，除汽车外零售额为 -0.6%，最终为 -0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆跌幅最大（如上所述）。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消失，疯狂的同比竞争也会缓解……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到零售库存（供应）相对于零售销售（需求）已达到历史新低……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储将如何解读？暂时性供应短缺？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175229651","content_text":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...\nSource: Bloomberg\nGiven the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)\nSource: Bloomberg\nBofA's forecasts nailed it again:\n\nBofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%\nBofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%\n\nBuilding Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...\nAs the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...\nSource: Bloomberg\nFinally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nHow will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1972,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160136907,"gmtCreate":1623774330109,"gmtModify":1634028415148,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Superb","listText":"Superb","text":"Superb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160136907","repostId":"1178091722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3224,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160192523,"gmtCreate":1623774127262,"gmtModify":1634028422364,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160192523","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周将举行联邦公开市场委员会会议，我们预计周三下午 2:00 将发表政策声明。许多评论称这次联邦公开市场委员会会议是近年来“最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了目标柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，个人消费支出+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7% -<b>当它们被年化时，这些真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一份报告中，GDP预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全部投入。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月运行1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多的刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像泰坦尼克号全速前进。在雾中。晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是明智的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周将举行联邦公开市场委员会会议，我们预计周三下午 2:00 将发表政策声明。许多评论称这次联邦公开市场委员会会议是近年来“最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了目标柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，个人消费支出+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7% -<b>当它们被年化时，这些真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一份报告中，GDP预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全部投入。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月运行1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多的刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像泰坦尼克号全速前进。在雾中。晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是明智的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160103659,"gmtCreate":1623773855571,"gmtModify":1634028433955,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160103659","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187276085,"gmtCreate":1623757117348,"gmtModify":1634028918713,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187276085","repostId":"1126045119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163135177,"gmtCreate":1623861901899,"gmtModify":1634026813740,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135177","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2334,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380483,"gmtCreate":1624887391442,"gmtModify":1633947503718,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380483","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2899,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380040,"gmtCreate":1624887375380,"gmtModify":1633947504328,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380040","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2317,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160192523,"gmtCreate":1623774127262,"gmtModify":1634028422364,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160192523","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周将举行联邦公开市场委员会会议，我们预计周三下午 2:00 将发表政策声明。许多评论称这次联邦公开市场委员会会议是近年来“最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了目标柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，个人消费支出+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7% -<b>当它们被年化时，这些真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一份报告中，GDP预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全部投入。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月运行1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多的刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像泰坦尼克号全速前进。在雾中。晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是明智的。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>联邦公开市场委员会预览：“这就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜间”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周将举行联邦公开市场委员会会议，我们预计周三下午 2:00 将发表政策声明。许多评论称这次联邦公开市场委员会会议是近年来“最重要的”。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了目标柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，个人消费支出+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7% -<b>当它们被年化时，这些真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一份报告中，GDP预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全部投入。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月运行1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多的刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像泰坦尼克号全速前进。在雾中。晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是明智的。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":498,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160103659,"gmtCreate":1623773855571,"gmtModify":1634028433955,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160103659","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五 2 万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论市场奇怪的夏季低迷将 VIX 推至新冠疫情爆发以来的最低水平时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静时期可能会持续到本周五的四女巫，届时大量伽马和德尔塔到期并被消除风险，在消除天然下行股票缓冲的过程中（参见“市场低迷以下周五的 Op-Ex 结束的 4 个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基-菲什曼（Rocky Fishman）在谈到周五可能影响市场的运营支出时，对即将到期的 6 月份的运营支出进行了预览，他称之为 “规模庞大，堪比典型的季度”。具体而言，<b>周五有 1.8 万亿美元的 SPX 期权到期，此外还有 2400 亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及 2000 亿美元的 SPX 和 SPX E-mini 期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，在当前现货 10% 以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中任何一个季度都少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，组合账户<b>对于 15-20% 的 SPX 期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到 1.5 万亿美元，仍远高于到期单只股票未平仓合约总额（7750 亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份的大部分未平仓合约将低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰位于3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”引力，直到伽马射线被重新填充。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>高盛策略师随后解释了他认为已实现市场交易量异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的那样——这与长期定位是一致的。考虑一下SPX<b>过去 13 个交易日的实现波动率仅为 5.1%，为 2019 年以来最低的 13 天实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC 上周的合约量是单只股票中最高的（但名义成交量为 70 亿美元/天，远低于 AMZN 领先的 1200 亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量的近 400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的查理·麦切利戈特上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>SPX 极低的实现波动率与 6 月 18 日多头指数 gamma 离开 “街头 ”的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman 呼应了我们上周所说的，即 “一旦头寸更加干净，实现波动率可能会上升”。</b>与此同时，SPX 的 VIX 期货贝塔系数上升表明，如果市场抛售，投资者预计短期伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录库存挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由零售驱动的所有单一股票期权活动中所占的比例很大，以及零售活动的预测价值，都提高了人们对单一股票期权市场的关注度。最近单一股票期权活动的增长集中在低股价股票，导致过去两周的合约交易量中的股价与名义交易量不符。在根据股票市场规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现，过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于 2021 年区间的低点，这意味着最新的涨幅几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是，高盛观察到，短期 SPX 期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与零售参与交易的不断增长是一致的。这也是为什么周五 SPX 到期日小于近期许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期日的临近，其交易量一直在下降。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用 SPX 到期日的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期日，因为他们会根据事件调整自己的观点。其实，<b>第三个星期五到期的 SPX 期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单只股票交易量： 高盛提出了一个观点--“如果做市商无法覆盖散户投资者购买看涨期权产生的单只股票空头范围，他们可能会积极交易一系列超短期 SPX 指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这一范围”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称，“最卖空的名称”，散户投资者正在迎来整个市场的非正统平静期!</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":650,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187276085,"gmtCreate":1623757117348,"gmtModify":1634028918713,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187276085","repostId":"1126045119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":424,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150389029,"gmtCreate":1624887398761,"gmtModify":1633947503596,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150389029","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一个高性能的CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，达到了70%的高位。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+ 来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界持续快速数字化，对高质量、高速互联网网络的需求持续增长。为此，投资者很早就了解这些前景，并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中，这或许并不奇怪。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为最昂贵的SaaS名称之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然持续高且稳定。对 Cloudflare 感兴趣的投资者必须采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机与称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是让互联网安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据由YCharts提供</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对 Fastly (FSLY) 充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会做错事的公司。如上图所示，今年的设置截然不同。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定迅速退出，他们现在正在围绕 Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常会认为这种情况可能会再次出现。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆的投资理念所基于的霍勒斯的一句话：<i>许多现在堕落的人会复活，许多现在荣耀的人会堕落。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句简短的俏皮话，真正投资者的前景在于做好工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一家高质量的企业</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的非 GAAP 毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，截至 2021 年第一季度，Fastly 的这一比例为 60.1%。从表面上看，这是令人难以置信的诱惑，是高质量企业的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们关注 Cloudflare 的全年指引时，其非 GAAP 营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了很大的改善，使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，要从<i>营业利润率从负 4% 到正 20% 是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应该谨慎对待这份指南。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，其最新业绩显示 Cloudflare 的美元净保留率为 123%。这是一个重要的指标，因为它不仅表明该公司的客户群具有粘性，而且提醒我们 Cloudflare 能够每年向客户追加销售 23% 的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，再加上 Cloudflare 付费客户持续增长的事实，应该会让投资者相信 Cloudflare 的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在因客户增加和价格上涨而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲且稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：作者的计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以从上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的CAGR——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道这种管理是多么保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松超越这些目标，甚至可能在未来一年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在 2021 年收入接近 6 亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于 10 亿美元的情况下以 40% 左右的速度增长，并在收入高于 10 亿美元的情况下继续以 40% 左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值 - 不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare 的定价是远期销售额的 53 倍。这意味着人们对 Cloudflare 的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS名称中，我相信这是一个异常值。我关注这个领域的许多公司，我不知道有哪家公司的价格像这个一样高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，CrowdStrike (CRWD) 等以其旺盛估值而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的 42 倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且增长迅速。它的估值并不便宜，为销售额的 53 倍，但高质量的公司很少如此。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快!</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2358,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150317101,"gmtCreate":1624887361903,"gmtModify":1633947505035,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150317101","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2201,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279680,"gmtCreate":1624219072340,"gmtModify":1634009423515,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279680","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测 3 只模因股票将暴跌超过 20%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票一直风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可能会下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的在线狂热不会持续。以下是华尔街认为未来 12 个月内将暴跌 20% 以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近 2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的 90%。即使是 Refinitiv 调查的最乐观的分析师也对 AMC 的目标价比当前股价低 70% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在好转吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC 可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远领先于其业务前景。该股的交易价格比 COVID-19 大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，它看起来像<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将 AMC 推到最热门的模因股票一边。散户投资者将三叶草视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨势不会持续。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health 的估值似乎确实失控了。该医疗保健股票目前的交易价格是过去 12 个月销售额的 170 多倍。这是一个令人鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health 今年仍有可能实现更好的财务业绩。该公司希望通过瞄准最初的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员数量。除了目前的 Medicare Advantage 业务之外，这代表着一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷生长器</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷生长器</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票中最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过 520%，然后回吐了大部分涨幅。然而，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻股可能会进一步下跌。Sundial 的一致目标价较其当前股价折扣 23%。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能会下跌 55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对 Sundial 的核心大麻业务感到悲观。2021年第一季度，该公司的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管 Sundial 正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial 的商业交易可能会让投资者有理由乐观。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司在第一季度公布了正调整后的息税折旧摊销前利润 (EBITDA)。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial 用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，而不得不采取孤注一掷的措施来维持其上市<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"CLOV":"Clover Health Corp","AMC":"AMC院线","SNDL":"SNDL Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SNDL":0.9,"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2077,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279960,"gmtCreate":1624218962950,"gmtModify":1634009424009,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"3584365058802300","authorIdStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279960","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2068,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}