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2021-06-17

Nice

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2021-06-28

Wow

Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>

2021-06-28

Noice

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2021-06-16

Wow

FOMC Preview: "It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Nice

Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>

2021-06-15

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2021-06-28

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Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>

2021-06-28

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2021-06-21

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3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>

2021-06-21

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2021-06-17

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2021-06-16

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'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>

2021-06-16

Superb

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Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380483,"gmtCreate":1624887391442,"gmtModify":1633947503718,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380483","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380040,"gmtCreate":1624887375380,"gmtModify":1633947504328,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380040","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150317101,"gmtCreate":1624887361903,"gmtModify":1633947505035,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150317101","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279680,"gmtCreate":1624219072340,"gmtModify":1634009423515,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279680","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279960,"gmtCreate":1624218962950,"gmtModify":1634009424009,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279960","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163135519,"gmtCreate":1623861918631,"gmtModify":1634026813413,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135519","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163135177,"gmtCreate":1623861901899,"gmtModify":1634026813740,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135177","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160120190,"gmtCreate":1623775444910,"gmtModify":1634028385450,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160120190","repostId":"1175229651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175229651","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623761854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175229651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175229651","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in ret","content":"<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏刺激来维持消费梦想，分析师预计零售额环比下降0.8%（<i>证实了美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟糕，环比下跌1.3%...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>一个“更干净”的前汽车指纹也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌0.7%（远低于预期的0.4%）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示，零售整体为-1.4%，实际为-1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，不包括汽车在内的零售业为-0.6%，为-0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆（如上所述）的跌幅最大。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消退，疯狂的同比增长也会放缓……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到，相对于零售额（需求），零售库存（供应）已达到历史新低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储对此将如何解读？短暂的供应困境？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏刺激来维持消费梦想，分析师预计零售额环比下降0.8%（<i>证实了美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟糕，环比下跌1.3%...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>一个“更干净”的前汽车指纹也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌0.7%（远低于预期的0.4%）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示，零售整体为-1.4%，实际为-1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，不包括汽车在内的零售业为-0.6%，为-0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆（如上所述）的跌幅最大。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消退，疯狂的同比增长也会放缓……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到，相对于零售额（需求），零售库存（供应）已达到历史新低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储对此将如何解读？短暂的供应困境？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175229651","content_text":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...\nSource: Bloomberg\nGiven the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)\nSource: Bloomberg\nBofA's forecasts nailed it again:\n\nBofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%\nBofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%\n\nBuilding Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...\nAs the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...\nSource: Bloomberg\nFinally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nHow will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160136907,"gmtCreate":1623774330109,"gmtModify":1634028415148,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Superb","listText":"Superb","text":"Superb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160136907","repostId":"1178091722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160192523,"gmtCreate":1623774127262,"gmtModify":1634028422364,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160192523","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160103659,"gmtCreate":1623773855571,"gmtModify":1634028433955,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160103659","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187276085,"gmtCreate":1623757117348,"gmtModify":1634028918713,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187276085","repostId":"1126045119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":163135177,"gmtCreate":1623861901899,"gmtModify":1634026813740,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135177","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1497,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380483,"gmtCreate":1624887391442,"gmtModify":1633947503718,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380483","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1971,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150380040,"gmtCreate":1624887375380,"gmtModify":1633947504328,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Noice","listText":"Noice","text":"Noice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150380040","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1514,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160192523,"gmtCreate":1623774127262,"gmtModify":1634028422364,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160192523","repostId":"1187337744","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1187337744","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623770439,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1187337744?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 23:20","market":"us","language":"en","title":"FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1187337744","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","content":"<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>FOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nFOMC Preview: \"It's Like The Titanic Running At Full Speed. In Fog. At Night\"<blockquote>FOMC前瞻：“就像泰坦尼克号全速行驶。在雾中。在夜晚”</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 23:20</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.</p><p><blockquote>本周有一个FOMC会议，我们预计周三下午2:00会有一份政策声明。许多评论人士称这次FOMC会议是近年来“最重要的”会议。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>Big picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>大局…美联储移动了球门柱吗？</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Let's look at some numbers.</p><p><blockquote>我们来看一些数字。</blockquote></p><p> Monthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -<b>these are real scary when they're annualized</b>.</p><p><blockquote>月度通胀：工资增长+.5%，PCE+.7%，PPI+.6%，CPI+.7%-<b>当它们按年计算时，真的很可怕</b>.</blockquote></p><p> GDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.</p><p><blockquote>在下一次报告中，国内生产总值预计为6.4%，失业率预计为5.5%。</blockquote></p><p> With these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"<b>all in.\"</b></p><p><blockquote>有了这些数字，美国货币仍然“<b>全押。”</b></blockquote></p><p> Overnight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.</p><p><blockquote>隔夜利率为0%，量化宽松每月投入1200亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> <b>On top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>最重要的是，随着经济继续重新开放，将会有更多刺激措施。</b></blockquote></p><p> In my book, this economic situation calls for attention.</p><p><blockquote>在我的书中，这种经济形势引起了评级的关注。</blockquote></p><p> <u><i><b>It's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.</b></i></u></p><p><blockquote><u><i><b>就像全速行驶的泰坦尼克号。在雾中。在晚上。</b></i></u></blockquote></p><p> Perhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.</p><p><blockquote>也许放松油门是谨慎的做法。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/fomc-preview-its-titanic-running-full-speed-fog-night","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1187337744","content_text":"There's an FOMC meeting this week and we are expecting a policy statement at 2:00 PM on Wednesday. Many commentators are calling this FOMC meeting the \"most important\" in recent years.\nBig picture … did the Fed move the goal posts?\nLet's look at some numbers.\nMonthly inflation: wage growth +.5%, PCE +.7%, PPI +.6%, CPI +.7% -these are real scary when they're annualized.\nGDP is projected to be 6.4% and the unemployment rate is projected to be 5.5% at the next report.\nWith these numbers, U.S. monetary is still \"all in.\"\nOvernight rates are at 0% and QE running at $120 billion a month.\nOn top of that, there will be more stimulus as the economy continues to reopen.\nIn my book, this economic situation calls for attention.\nIt's like the Titanic running at full speed. In fog. At night.\nPerhaps it's prudent to ease up on the throttle.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160103659,"gmtCreate":1623773855571,"gmtModify":1634028433955,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice","listText":"Nice","text":"Nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160103659","repostId":"1191245053","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1191245053","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623762167,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1191245053?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 21:02","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1191245053","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers .So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fis","content":"<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Quad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nQuad-Witch Quandary: How Will Friday's $2 Trillion Gamma Expiration Impact Markets<blockquote>四女巫困境：周五2万亿美元伽马到期将如何影响市场</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 21:02</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").</p><p><blockquote>上周，在讨论将VIX推至新冠大流行爆发以来的最低水平的市场夏季低迷时，我们表示，这段异常的市场平静期可能会持续到本周五的“四女巫”，届时大量的gamma和delta到期并去风险，在此过程中消除了股票的自然下行缓冲之一（请参阅“市场低迷随着下周五的Op-Ex而结束的4个原因”）。</blockquote></p><p> So picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,<b>there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.</b></p><p><blockquote>因此，高盛内部衍生品专家洛基·菲什曼(Rocky Fishman)在谈到周五“可能影响市场的运营支出”的话题时，预览了即将到来的6月份到期，他称之为“规模很大——与典型的季度相当”。具体而言，<b>周五有1.8万亿美元的SPX期权到期，此外还有2400亿美元的SPDR标普500指数ETF期权以及2000亿美元的SPX和SPX E-mini期货期权。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0d1ece116794c7f6523250fd682450e3\" tg-width=\"959\" tg-height=\"765\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Yet while these totals are massive,<b>when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.</b></p><p><blockquote>然而，尽管这些总数很大，<b>根据指数规模进行调整后，当前现货10%以内的到期期权数量比过去十年中的任何一个季度都要少。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/534b677774a92a59d4fe08f09359932b\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"298\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> It's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos account<b>for 15-20% of SPX options,</b>so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，根据高盛的估计，combos账户<b>对于15-20%的SPX期权，</b>因此，调整后的未平仓合约总额将达到1.5万亿美元，仍远高于即将到期的单一股票未平仓合约总额（7750亿美元）。此外，由于股市处于历史高位，预计6月份大部分未平仓合约均低于当前SPX现货价格。如下图所示，双峰在3900和4150。这意味着周五之后，在伽马被重新填充之前，这些点周围可能会有一定的“反”重力。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/adfcada2b0ef3f2ebbd684649a613043\" tg-width=\"936\" tg-height=\"541\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPX<b>realized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.</b></p><p><blockquote>这位高盛策略师随后解释了他认为低于已实现市场波动率的异常低水平的情况，并指出——正如我们上周讨论的——这与多头伽马头寸一致。考虑一下SPX<b>过去13个交易日的已实现波动率仅为5.1%，为2019年以来最低的13天已实现波动率。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/afffda1e07736784ad695d95a9936421\" tg-width=\"952\" tg-height=\"558\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> This contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.</p><p><blockquote>这与单一股票市场部分地区的极端波动形成鲜明对比；AMC上周是个股中合约量最高的（但名义交易量为70亿美元/天，远低于AMZN领先的1200亿美元/天），同期已实现成交量接近400%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/df2b7aeaadb37160a7eaf0ac08ba31de\" tg-width=\"1236\" tg-height=\"561\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Then, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees that<b>the extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"</b>Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:<u><b>the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.</b></u></p><p><blockquote>然后，正如野村证券的Charlie McElligott上周首次指出的那样，高盛的衍生品团队同意<b>极低的SPX已实现波动性与6月18日离开“华尔街”多头指数gamma的可能性是一致的，在这种情况下，Fishman呼应了我们上周所说的，即“一旦头寸变得更加干净，已实现波动性可能会回升。”</b>与此同时，VIX期货相对于SPX的贝塔值上升表明，投资者预计，如果市场抛售，空头伽马动态将会回升。翻译：<u><b>在抛售中，市场将变得更加波动。</b></u></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/76b01b8a05b70ec4f343626b1fad491b\" tg-width=\"931\" tg-height=\"560\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Meanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，与最新的备忘录股票挤压保持一致，高盛还指出，虽然单一股票期权交易量仍然很高，但远低于第一季度的峰值。最近几周，由散户驱动的所有单一股票期权活动的很大比例以及散户活动的预测价值都提高了对单一股票期权市场的关注。近期单一股票期权活动的增长主要集中在低股价股票上，导致过去两周合约交易量大幅上涨，但名义交易量并未与之匹配。在根据股市规模调整名义成交量时，高盛发现过去两周单只股票成交量实际上一直处于2021年区间的低点，这意味着最新的上涨几乎没有伽马挤压成分。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9c6c3df49e3e5d1e4a7a0d9c24696e6a\" tg-width=\"1212\" tg-height=\"608\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p><p> One final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.</p><p><blockquote>我们最近讨论的最后一点是高盛的观察，即短期SPX期权（每周）和远离季度的趋势仍在继续，这与散户参与交易的不断增加相一致。这也是周五SPX到期时间小于最近许多季度的原因之一，也是为什么随着到期时间的临近，其交易量一直在下降的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> As Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,<b>the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,</b>and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"</p><p><blockquote>正如高盛所解释的那样，投资者越来越多地采用SPX到期的完整日历，包括每周一和周三的到期，因为他们围绕事件调整了自己的观点。事实上，<b>第三个周五到期的SPX期权交易量百分比处于历史最低点，</b>现在低于周一和周三到期的百分比。超短期交易量增加的一个解释是强劲的单一股票交易量：高盛提出了一个兴趣——“在某种程度上，做市商无法弥补散户投资者看涨期权买入产生的单一股票空头伽马，他们可能会积极交易超短期SPX指数期权的多头头寸，以抵消这种伽马。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/bd0e886a62a61c70b0f299bd6c032a24\" tg-width=\"954\" tg-height=\"1128\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Why is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.<b>Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!</b></p><p><blockquote>为什么这很重要？因为如果这种趋势足够大，它会直接导致低隐含和实现的相关性。<b>具有讽刺意味的是，通过增加单一名称“最受做空的名称”，散户投资者正在市场的其他部分迎来一段非正统的平静时期！</b></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/quad-witch-quandary-how-will-fridays-2-trillion-gamma-expiration-impact-markets","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1191245053","content_text":"Last week, when discussing thebizarre summer doldrumsin the market which pushed the VIX to the lowest level since the onset of the covid pandemic, we said that this period of abnormal market quiet is likely to last until this Friday' quad-witch, when a massive amount of gamma and delta expire and are de-risked, in the process eliminating one of the natural downside stock buffers (see \"4 Reasons Why The Market Doldrums End With Next Friday's Op-Ex\").\nSo picking up on the topic of Friday' potentially market-moving opex, Goldman' in-house derivatives expert, Rocky Fishman, previews June’s upcoming expiration which he dubs as \"large - comparable to a typical quarterly.\" Specifically,there are $1.8 trillion of SPX options expiring on Friday, in addition to $240 billion of SPY options and $200 billion of options on SPX and SPX E-mini futures.\n\nYet while these totals are massive,when adjusted for the index’s size the amount of expiring options within 10% of current spot is smaller than just about any quarterly over the past decade.\n\nIt's worth noting that according to Goldman estimates that combos accountfor 15-20% of SPX options,so an adjusted open interest total would add up to $1.5tln, still much larger than total expiring single stock open interest ($775bln). Furthermore, with stocks at all time highs, it is to be expected that most of the June open interest is below the current SPX spot price. As shown in the chart below, the dual peaks are at 3,900 and 4,150. This means that after Friday, there may be a certain \"anti\"-gravity around those spots until gamma is refilled.\n\nThe Goldman strategist then explains what he believes is below the abnormally low level of realized market vol, noting that - as we discussed last week - it is consistent with long gamma positioning. Consider that SPXrealized volatility over the past 13 trading days has been just 5.1% - the lowest 13-day realized vol since 2019.\n\nThis contrasts with extreme volatility in pockets of the single stock market; AMC, which had the highest contract volume among single stocks last week (but far less notional volume at$7bln/day than AMZN’s leading $120bln/day), has had close to 400% realized vol over the same period.\n\nThen, as Nomura's Charlie McElligott first noted last week, Goldman's derivatives team agrees thatthe extremely low SPX realized volatility is consistent with the possibility that 18-Jun has left “the street” long index gamma, in which case Fishman echoeswhat we said last week, namely that \"realized volatility could pick up once positions are cleaner. \"Meanwhile, the rising beta of VIX futures to the SPX indicates that investors expect short gamma dynamics to pick up should markets sell off. Translation:the market will become much more volatile in a selloff.\n\nMeanwhile, and in keeping with the latest memo stock squeeze, Goldman also notes that while single stock option volumes continue to be high, it is well short of Q1 peaks. The large percentage of all single stock option activity driven by retail, and the predictive value of retail activity, have both heightened the attention on the single stock option market in recent weeks. Recent growth in single stock option activity has been concentrated in low-share-price stocks, leaving a shar prise in contract-volume over the past two weeks that has not been matched by notional volume. When adjusting notional volume for the size of the equity market, Goldman finds that single stock volume has actually been on the low of its 2021 range over the past two weeks which means that the latest ramps had little to no gamma squeeze components to them.\n\nOne final point which we discussed recently and which is in keeping with the growing retail participation in trading, is Goldman's observation that the trend toward shorter-dated SPX options (weeklies) and away from quarterlies, continues. That also is one of the reasons why Friday’s SPX expiration is smaller than many recent quarterlies, and why as it as approached expiration, its trading volume has been falling.\nAs Goldman explains, investors have been increasingly adopting the full calendar of SPX expirations, including expirations every Monday and Wednesday, as they tailor their views around events. In fact,the percentage of SPX option volume happening in 3rd Friday expirations is at an all-time low,and is now smaller than the percentage happening in Monday and Wednesday expirations. One explanation for heightened ultra-short-dated volumes is the strong single stock volumes: and here an interest suggesting from Goldman - \"to the extent market makers are unable to cover the short single stock gamma generated by retail investors’ call buying, they may be actively trading long positions in strips of ultra-short-dated SPX index options to offset this gamma.\"\n\nWhy is this important? because if this trend is large enough, it directly contributes to low implied and realized correlation.Ironically, by ramping single name, \"most-shorted names\", retail investors are ushering a period of unorthodox calm across the rest of the market!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":377,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":187276085,"gmtCreate":1623757117348,"gmtModify":1634028918713,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/187276085","repostId":"1126045119","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":335,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150389029,"gmtCreate":1624887398761,"gmtModify":1633947503596,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150389029","repostId":"1170953229","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1170953229","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624885060,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1170953229?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-28 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1170953229","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Cloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nCloudflare: High-Quality Business, But Not Cheap<blockquote>Cloudflare：高质量的业务，但不便宜</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-28 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.</li>  <li>Cloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.</li>  <li>Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7cd9332f245bbb2907015fd86c5ff20\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"864\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>imaginima/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Cloudflare是一款高性能CDN。其付费客户继续快速增长，并且没有放缓的迹象。</li><li>Cloudflare的毛利率非常高，高达70%。</li><li>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>imaginima/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Investment Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投资论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare（纽约证券交易所代码：NET）是内容交付网络（“CDN”）。随着世界继续快速数字化，对高质量和快速互联网网络的需求不断增加。为此，投资者很久以前就了解这些前景并将这种信念反映到Cloudflare的股价中或许也就不足为奇了。事实上，Cloudflare现在的定价是远期销售额的53倍，使其成为SaaS最昂贵的品牌之一。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，Cloudflare的增长率仍然居高不下且稳定。对Cloudflare感兴趣的投资者将不得不采取坚定的买入并持有策略。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Voting Machine vs Weighing Machine</b></p><p><blockquote><b>投票机vs称重机</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare是一个内容交付网络（“CDN”）。它的使命是使互联网更安全、更快、更可靠。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0c97ad60d00f39022413a4453bb38d2d\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> This time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.</p><p><blockquote>去年这个时候，投资者对Fastly(FSLY)充满热情。许多人认为它是一家不会犯错的公司。今年，情况截然不同，如上图所示。Fastly已经半途而废，而Cloudflare现在是卫冕冠军。</blockquote></p><p> Investors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.</p><p><blockquote>投资者正在用脚投票决定快速退出，他们现在正在涌入Cloudflare。</blockquote></p><p> As a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:<i>many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.</i></p><p><blockquote>作为一名价值投资者，我通常认为这种情况可能会再次恢复。以下是传奇投资者本杰明·格雷厄姆(Benjamin Graham)的投资理念所基于的贺拉斯(Horace)的一句话：<i>许多现在倒下的人将会复活，许多现在被荣耀的人将会倒下。</i></blockquote></p><p> Having said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，对于投资者可能发表的每一句俏皮话，真正的投资者的前景在于做工作并试图辨别潜在的机会。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Cloudflare is a High-Quality Business</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Cloudflare是一项优质业务</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的非GAAP毛利率不仅高得令人难以置信，而且非常稳定。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/161c2d74e08d4ccf531ab30182bd8a62\" tg-width=\"747\" tg-height=\"613\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> As a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.</p><p><blockquote>提醒一下，相比之下，Fastly截至2021年第一季度的这一比例为60.1%。从表面上看，这非常诱人，是高质量业务的典型指标。</blockquote></p><p> On the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in at<i>a negative 4%</i>. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.</p><p><blockquote>另一方面，当我们展望Cloudflare的全年指引时，其非GAAP营业利润率预计将达到<i>负4%</i>.当然，这比2020年的负8%有了实质性的改善，并使Cloudflare非常接近盈亏平衡。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8a369e8d30ed6115c1e05ca0b8310f0a\" tg-width=\"516\" tg-height=\"237\"><span>Source: Long-Term Model</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>来源：长期模型</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, to go from<i>negative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb</i>. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.</p><p><blockquote>然而，从<i>营业利润率从负4%到正+20%是一个非常陡峭的攀升</i>因此，投资者应谨慎行事，对本指南持保留态度。</blockquote></p><p> Moving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.</p><p><blockquote>展望未来，其最新业绩显示Cloudflare以美元计算的净保留率为123%。这是一个重要指标，因为它不仅表明了公司的客户群是粘性的，而且提醒我们Cloudflare能够向其客户出售23%的服务。</blockquote></p><p> This insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:</p><p><blockquote>这一见解，加上Cloudflare的付费客户持续增加的事实，应该会让投资者相信Cloudflare的业务非常健康，因为其收入正在通过客户增加和价格上涨的混合而增加：</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6a4e8e1944ecc73a022a5710a3dc07ad\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"559\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Revenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable</p><p><blockquote>收入增长率：强劲而稳定</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fdc3dff42f73ccfdfc3b2b4f9a0eb65a\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"285\"><span>Source: author's calculations; **company guidance</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：作者计算；**公司指引</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Next, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，我们可以在上面看到，Cloudflare继续引导投资者实现40%左右的复合年增长率——至少在短期内是这样。</blockquote></p><p> Furthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，知道管理层有多保守，我怀疑Cloudflare将轻松击败这些目标，甚至可能在来年提高其指导。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Nonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们必须记住，我们仍在讨论一家可能在2021年底收入接近6亿美元的公司。换句话说，在公司收入低于10亿美元的情况下以40%左右的速度增长，并在收入高于10亿美元的情况下继续以40%左右的速度增长，这是一个完全不同的壮举。在某些时候，规模会产生影响。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation - Not Cheap</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值——不便宜</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare的定价是远期销售额的53倍。这意味着人们对Cloudflare的乐观情绪非常高。即使在SaaS的名字中，我也相信这是一个异常值。我关注了这个领域的许多公司，但我不知道有哪家公司的定价如此之高。</blockquote></p><p> The obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.</p><p><blockquote>这里明显的比较是Fastly，它的定价是远期销售额的18倍。但即使在网络安全公司中，像CrowdStrike(CRWD)这样以估值过高而闻名的行业的定价也是销售额的42倍。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> Cloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.</p><p><blockquote>Cloudflare非常稳定，并且正在快速增长。它的估值并不便宜，是销售额的53倍，但同样很少有优质公司。有意在此建仓的投资者可以考虑逢低买入。</blockquote></p><p> Having said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!</p><p><blockquote>话虽如此，我更喜欢坚持那些头发更多、估值更便宜的公司。投资愉快！</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NET":"Cloudflare, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4436906-cloudflare-high-quality-business-but-not-cheap","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1170953229","content_text":"Summary\n\nCloudflare is a high-performance CDN. Its paying customers continue to rapidly increase and show no signs of slowing down.\nCloudflare's gross margins are very high, reaching the high 70s%.\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales, making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\n\nimaginima/E+ via Getty Images\nInvestment Thesis\nCloudflare(NYSE:NET)is Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). As the world continues to rapidly digitize, the demand for high-quality and fast internet networks continues to increase. To this end, it's perhaps no surprise that investors have long ago understood these prospects and reflected this belief into Cloudflare's share price. In fact, Cloudflare is now priced at 53x forward sales making it one of the most expensive SaaS names.\nHaving said that, Cloudflare's growth rates continue to be persistently high and stable. Investors interested in Cloudflare will have to adopt a firm buy-and-hold strategy.\nVoting Machine vs Weighing Machine\nCloudflare is a Content Delivery Network (''CDN''). Its mission is to make the internet secure, faster, and more reliable.\nData by YCharts\nThis time last year, investors were passionately clamoring for Fastly (FSLY). It was viewed by many as a company that could do no wrong. This year, it's a dramatically different setup as the graph above depicts. Fastly has fallen by the wayside, while Cloudflare is now the reigning champion.\nInvestors are voting with their feet to exit Fastly and they are now piling in around Cloudflare.\nAs a value investor, I would normally argue that this is likely to once again revert. Here is a quote from Horace that legendary investor Benjamin Graham's investment philosophy was based on:many shall berestoredthat now are fallen and many shall fall that now are in honor.\nHaving said that, for every snapping one-liner an investor might put out, the real investor's prospects lie in doing the work and attempting to discern the underlying opportunity.\nCloudflare is a High-Quality Business\nCloudflare's non-GAAP gross margins are not only incredibly high, but they are highly stable too.\n\nAs a reminder, this compares with Fastly's60.1%as of Q1 2021. On the surface, this is incredibly alluring and is a typical indicator of a high-quality business.\nOn the other hand, as we look out to Cloudflare's full-year guidance, its non-GAAP operating margins are expected to come in ata negative 4%. Of course, this is a substantial improvement from the negative 8% from 2020 and puts Cloudflare very close to breakeven.\nSource: Long-Term Model\nNevertheless, to go fromnegative 4% to positive +20% in operating margins is a very steep climb. So, investors should be cautious and take this guide with a pinch of salt.\nMoving on, its latest sets of results put Cloudflare's dollar-based net retention at 123%. This is an important metric because it not only shows that the company's customer base is sticky but reminds us that Cloudflare is capable of upselling 23% more services to its customers y/y.\nThis insight, together with the fact that Cloudflare's paying customers continue to increase, should provide investors with confidence that Cloudflare's business is very healthy, as its revenues are increasing by a mixture of increasing customers and higher prices:\n\nRevenue Growth Rates: Strong and Stable\nSource: author's calculations; **company guidance\nNext, we can see above that Cloudflare continues to guide investors for mid-40s% CAGR - at least in the near term.\nFurthermore, knowing how conservative this management is, I suspect that Cloudflare will easily beat these targets and will perhaps even raise its guidance over the coming year.\nNonetheless, we have to keep in mind that we are still discussing a company that's likely to finish 2021 with close to $600 million in revenues. In other words, growing at mid 40s% while the company is at sub $1 billion in revenues, and continuing to grow at mid-40s% at higher than $1 billion in revenues, it's quite a different feat. At some point, size takes a toll.\nValuation - Not Cheap\nCloudflare is priced at 53x forward sales. This implies that optimism towards Cloudflare is incredibly high. Even amongst SaaS names, I believe this is an outlier. I follow many companies in this space and I don't know of any that are priced as richly as this.\nThe obvious comparison here is Fastly which is priced at 18x forward sales. But even amongst the cybersecurity names, a sector that is wildly known for its exuberant valuations the likes of CrowdStrike (CRWD) is priced at 42x sales.\nThe Bottom Line\nCloudflare is remarkably stable and growing at a rapid rate. Its valuation is not cheap at 53x sales, but there again high-quality companies rarely are. Investors intent on taking a position here may consider buying in dips.\nHaving said that, I prefer to stick to companies with more hairs on them and more cheaply valued. Happy investing!","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NET":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1552,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":150317101,"gmtCreate":1624887361903,"gmtModify":1633947505035,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/150317101","repostId":"2146025230","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1204,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279680,"gmtCreate":1624219072340,"gmtModify":1634009423515,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279680","repostId":"1166679093","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166679093","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1624065234,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1166679093?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-19 09:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166679093","media":"fool","summary":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them del","content":"<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Meme Stocks Wall Street Predicts Will Plunge More Than 20%<blockquote>华尔街预测3只模因股将暴跌20%以上</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-19 09:13</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.</p><p><blockquote>今年到目前为止，模因股票风靡一时。这是可以理解的，其中一些公司实现了三位数甚至四位数的百分比增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.</p><p><blockquote>然而，上升的可以下降。分析师预计，推动一些最受欢迎股票大幅上涨的网络狂热不会持续下去。以下是华尔街认为未来12个月内将暴跌20%以上的三只模因股票。</blockquote></p><p> AMC Entertainment</p><p><blockquote>AMC院线</blockquote></p><p> <b>AMC Entertainment</b>(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.</p><p><blockquote><b>AMC院线</b>（纽约证券交易所股票代码：AMC）被评为所有模因股票中表现最好的。今年迄今为止，这家电影院运营商的股价已飙升近2,500%。</blockquote></p><p> The consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>不过，分析师的共识是，该股可能会损失当前价值的90%。即使是Refinitiv调查的最乐观的分析师对AMC的目标价也比当前股价低70%以上。</blockquote></p><p> But isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.</p><p><blockquote>但AMC的业务不是在回暖吗？是的。限制的放松使该公司能够重新开放99%的美国影院。随着州和地方政府施加的座位容量限制的提高，AMC可能会受益。今年夏天和今年晚些时候上映的多部可能会大受欢迎的电影也应该会有所帮助。</blockquote></p><p> However, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>然而，华尔街显然认为AMC的股价已经远远超出了其业务前景。该股目前的交易价格比COVID-19大流行之前高出近八倍。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health Investments</p><p><blockquote>三叶草健康投资</blockquote></p><p> Only a few days ago, it looked like&nbsp;<b>Clover Health Investments</b>(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.</p><p><blockquote>就在几天前，看起来<b>三叶草健康投资</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：CLOV）可能会将AMC推到最热门的模因股票旁边。散户投资者将Clover视为主要的空头挤压候选者。</blockquote></p><p> Since the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.</p><p><blockquote>自6月初以来，Clover Health的股价已上涨超过65%。然而，分析师预计这些涨幅不会持续下去。该股的平均目标价比当前股价低25%。</blockquote></p><p> Clover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.</p><p><blockquote>Clover Health的估值似乎确实已经失控。该医疗保健股目前的交易价格是过去12个月销售额的170多倍。这是一个令人流鼻血的水平，特别是考虑到该公司是美国调查的对象。司法部和证券交易委员会。</blockquote></p><p> Still, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，Clover Health今年的财务业绩可能会有所改善。该公司希望通过瞄准原来的医疗保险计划来大幅增加其会员。除了当前的Medicare Advantage业务之外，这也是一个重大的新市场机会。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial Growers</p><p><blockquote>日晷种植者</blockquote></p><p> At one point earlier this year,&nbsp;<b>Sundial Growers</b>(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.</p><p><blockquote>今年早些时候，<b>日晷种植者</b>（纳斯达克股票代码：SNDL）似乎是成为模因股票最大赢家的合法竞争者。加拿大大麻股票今年迄今已上涨超过520%，随后回吐了大部分涨幅。不过，Sundial的股价在2021年仍上涨了一倍多。</blockquote></p><p> Analysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.</p><p><blockquote>分析师预计大麻库存可能会进一步下跌。Sundial的共识目标价较其当前股价有23%的折扣。一位分析师甚至认为该股可能下跌55%。</blockquote></p><p> There certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.</p><p><blockquote>当然有理由对Sundial的核心大麻业务持悲观态度。该公司2021年第一季度的大麻净收入同比下降。尽管日晷正在采取措施，希望能够扭转局面，但这些努力是否会成功还有待观察。</blockquote></p><p> Sundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.</p><p><blockquote>Sundial的商业交易可能会给投资者带来乐观的理由。毕竟，由于其投资，该公司第一季度调整后息税折旧摊销前利润(EBITDA)为正。</blockquote></p><p> However, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the&nbsp;<b>Nasdaq</b>&nbsp;stock exchange.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Sundial用于进行这些投资的现金是以其股票进一步稀释为代价的。该公司无法承受任何额外的稀释，除非采取绝望的措施来维持其在<b>纳斯达克</b>证券交易所。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/\">fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SNDL":"SNDL Inc.","AMC":"AMC院线","CLOV":"Clover Health Corp"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/06/18/3-meme-stocks-wall-street-predicts-will-plunge-mor/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166679093","content_text":"Meme stocks have been all the rage so far this year. That's understandable, with several of them delivering triple-digit and even four-digit percentage gains.\nHowever, what goes up can come down. Analysts don't expect the online frenzy fueling the ginormous jumps for some of the most popular stocks will be sustainable. Here are three meme stocks that Wall Street thinks will plunge by more than 20% within the next 12 months.\nAMC Entertainment\nAMC Entertainment(NYSE:AMC)ranks as the best-performing meme stock of all. Shares of the movie theater operator have skyrocketed close to 2,500% year to date.\nThe consensus among analysts, though, is that the stock could lose 90% of its current value. Even the most optimistic analyst surveyed by Refinitiv has a price target for AMC that's more than 70% below the current share price.\nBut isn't AMC's business picking up? Yep. The easing of restrictions has enabled the company to reopen 99% of its U.S. theaters. AMC could benefit as seating capacity limitations imposed by state and local governments are raised. Thereleases of multiple movies this summerand later this year that are likely to be hits should also help.\nHowever, Wall Street clearly believes that AMC's share price has gotten way ahead of its business prospects. The stock is trading at nearly eight times higher than it was before the COVID-19 pandemic.\nClover Health Investments\nOnly a few days ago, it looked like Clover Health Investments(NASDAQ:CLOV)might push AMC to the side as the hottest meme stock. Retail investors viewed Clover as a primeshort squeezecandidate.\nSince the beginning of June, shares of Clover Health have jumped more than 65%. Analysts, however, don't expect those gains to last. The average price target for the stock is 25% below the current share price.\nClover Health's valuation does seem to have gotten out of hand. The healthcare stock currently trades at more than 170 times trailing-12-month sales. That's a nosebleed level, especially considering that the company is the subject of investigations by the U.S. Department of Justice and the Securities and Exchange Commission.\nStill, Clover Health could deliver improving financial results this year. The company hopes to significantly increase its membership by targeting the original Medicare program. This represents a major new market opportunity in addition to its current Medicare Advantage business.\nSundial Growers\nAt one point earlier this year, Sundial Growers(NASDAQ:SNDL)appeared to be a legitimate contender to become the biggest winner among meme stocks. The Canadian marijuana stock vaulted more than 520% higher year to date before giving up much of its gains. However, Sundial's share price has still more than doubled in 2021.\nAnalysts anticipate that the pot stock could fall even further. The consensus price target for Sundial reflects a 23% discount to its current share price. One analyst even thinks the stock could sink 55%.\nThere certainly are reasons to be pessimistic about Sundial's core cannabis business. The company's net cannabis revenue fell year over year in the first quarter of 2021. Although Sundial is taking steps that it hopes will turn things around, it remains to be seen if those efforts will succeed.\nSundial's business deals could give investors reasons for optimism. After all, the company posted positive adjusted earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) in Q1 due to its investments.\nHowever, the cash that Sundial is using to make these investments has come at the cost of increased dilution of its stock. The company can't afford any additional dilution without having to resort to desperate measures to keep its listing on the Nasdaq stock exchange.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CLOV":0.9,"AMC":0.9,"SNDL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":164279960,"gmtCreate":1624218962950,"gmtModify":1634009424009,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/164279960","repostId":"1126454279","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1183,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":163135519,"gmtCreate":1623861918631,"gmtModify":1634026813413,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/163135519","repostId":"1160215752","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1177,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160120190,"gmtCreate":1623775444910,"gmtModify":1634028385450,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","listText":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","text":"Great ariticle, would you like to share it?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160120190","repostId":"1175229651","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175229651","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1623761854,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175229651?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-06-15 20:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175229651","media":"zerohedge","summary":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in ret","content":"<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏刺激来维持消费梦想，分析师预计零售额环比下降0.8%（<i>证实了美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟糕，环比下跌1.3%...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>一个“更干净”的前汽车指纹也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌0.7%（远低于预期的0.4%）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示，零售整体为-1.4%，实际为-1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，不包括汽车在内的零售业为-0.6%，为-0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆（如上所述）的跌幅最大。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消退，疯狂的同比增长也会放缓……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到，相对于零售额（需求），零售库存（供应）已达到历史新低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储对此将如何解读？短暂的供应困境？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n'Gonna Need More Stimmies' - US Retail Sales Plunged In May<blockquote>“需要更多刺激”——美国五月份零售额暴跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-06-15 20:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (<i>confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions</i>), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...</p><p><blockquote>由于缺乏刺激来维持消费梦想，分析师预计零售额环比下降0.8%（<i>证实了美国银行最近的完美预测</i>），但数据更糟糕，环比下跌1.3%...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/45b8615441c602f54053c2e255ce180a\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"274\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Given the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,<b>a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,</b>tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)</p><p><blockquote>鉴于芯片短缺对汽车的预期影响，<b>一个“更干净”的前汽车指纹也是一场灾难，</b>环比下跌0.7%（远低于预期的0.4%）</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/29613437d5cc305349ea8b7f9b50ab0f\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"272\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> BofA's forecasts nailed it again:</p><p><blockquote>美国银行的预测再次证明了这一点：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>BofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%</li>  <li>BofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%</li> </ul> Building Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>美国银行表示，零售整体为-1.4%，实际为-1.4%</li><li>美国银行表示，不包括汽车在内的零售业为-0.6%，为-0.7%</li></ul>建筑材料和机动车辆（如上所述）的跌幅最大。非商店零售商（在线）的销售额也有所下降...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/6d94f95a16decd0cf5893fd4408feb6c\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"435\">As the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...</p><p><blockquote>随着基数效应的消退，疯狂的同比增长也会放缓……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/049936d252903cc97f3b4cd8abec9044\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"273\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> Finally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...</p><p><blockquote>最后，我们注意到，相对于零售额（需求），零售库存（供应）已达到历史新低...</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/70b0549aa7160c7d4b2b96a17a25d15d\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"271\"><i>Source: Bloomberg</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：彭博社</i></blockquote></p><p> How will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?</p><p><blockquote>美联储对此将如何解读？短暂的供应困境？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/personal-finance/gonna-need-more-stimmies-us-retail-sales-plunged-may","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175229651","content_text":"With a lack of stimmies to keep the spending dream alive, analysts expected a 0.8% MoM plunge in retail sales (confirming BofA's recent perfect streak of predictions), but the data was even worse, tumbling 1.3% MoM...\nSource: Bloomberg\nGiven the expected impact of autos from the chip shortage,a \"cleaner\" number of the Ex-Autos print which was also a disaster,tumbling 0.7% MoM (much worse than the 0.4% improvement expected)\nSource: Bloomberg\nBofA's forecasts nailed it again:\n\nBofA said retail headline -1.4%, came in at -1.4%\nBofA said retail ex auto -0.6%, came in at -0.7%\n\nBuilding Materials saw the biggest drop, along with Motor Vehicles (as noted above). Nonstore retailers (online) also saw a decline in sales...\nAs the base effect wears off so the insane YoY comps ease back too...\nSource: Bloomberg\nFinally, we note that retail inventories (supply) has reached a record low relative to retail sales (demand)...\nSource: Bloomberg\nHow will The Fed interpret this? Transitory supply distress?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":160136907,"gmtCreate":1623774330109,"gmtModify":1634028415148,"author":{"id":"3584365058802300","authorId":"3584365058802300","name":"Skii","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3584365058802300","idStr":"3584365058802300"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Superb","listText":"Superb","text":"Superb","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/160136907","repostId":"1178091722","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2531,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}