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2021-07-16

Hmmm

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2021-07-16

Waaaa...

Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>

2021-07-16

Wow

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2021-07-15

Another source of info

Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>

2021-07-14

Hmmm..

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2021-07-12

wow

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2021-07-12

Wowwww

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2021-07-12

Nice! 👍

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2021-07-12

Hmmmm

China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>

2021-07-09

Cool

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2021-07-09

Wow

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2021-07-09

Hmmm

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2021-07-09

Nice move

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2021-07-07

hmmm

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2021-07-07

wow

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2021-07-06

Wow

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2021-07-06

Wow

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2021-07-06

Wow

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2021-07-06

Nice

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2021-07-06

Hmmmm..

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06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165176874","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. 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That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)</p><p><blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote></p><p> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.</p><p><blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The source of the market’s ill-health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场不健康的根源</b></blockquote></p><p> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.</p><p><blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote></p><p> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.</p><p><blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”</p><p><blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote></p><p> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.</p><p><blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.</p><p><blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 06:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.  Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年10月开始下跌20%以上以来，市场广度从未如此糟糕。准备好迎接自2020年3月牛市开始以来最严重的调整吧。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，华尔街的预测多如牛毛。但这句话来自投资咨询公司Market Extremes的总裁海耶斯·马丁(Hayes Martin)。几年前，我被介绍给马丁的工作，从那以后，我发现他对市场转折点的预测令人印象深刻。（郑重声明：马丁没有投资通讯；我的通讯跟踪公司不会审计他的投资业绩。）</blockquote></p><p> I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一年里，我专门写了两篇专栏文章来讨论马丁的预测，两篇文章都被证明是有先见之明的。2020年5月，我得出的结论是“股市……比最看涨的投资者想象的还要强劲。”今年1月，我写道，市场仍在“火力全开”。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)</p><p><blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote></p><p> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.</p><p><blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The source of the market’s ill-health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场不健康的根源</b></blockquote></p><p> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.</p><p><blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote></p><p> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.</p><p><blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”</p><p><blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote></p><p> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.</p><p><blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.</p><p><blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165176874","content_text":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n\nGet ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.\nTo be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)\nI devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”\nIn an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)\nMartin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.\nThe source of the market’s ill-health\nMartin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.\nThis was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.\nMartin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”\nMartin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.\nAdding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.\nTo be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":170683442,"gmtCreate":1626426614786,"gmtModify":1631890651321,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/170683442","repostId":"1131457770","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2462,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147183947,"gmtCreate":1626341511389,"gmtModify":1631890651327,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another source of info&nbsp;","listText":"Another source of info&nbsp;","text":"Another source of info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147183947","repostId":"1122873304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122873304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626320892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122873304?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 11:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122873304","media":"zerohedge","summary":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”“Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”…The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.I should warn readers this morning’","content":"<p><i>“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“人所行的恶，必后生；善人常与尸骨一同埋葬。凯撒也是如此。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”……市场如此关注短期，忽视了过去10年量化宽松、货币实验和宽松利率的后果，以至于它陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，而且已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于2007年开始的全球金融危机（“GFC”）如何仍然伴随着我们的又一次不定期笔记..我们正在进入一个新的阶段……欣赏《金钱的陨落——GFC：2007-2031》的第384章。</i></blockquote></p><p> This morning – What inflation?</p><p><blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote></p><p> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;<i><u>apparently</u></i>wasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;<i><u>absolutely</u></i>&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…</p><p><blockquote>啊？上周市场确信通胀<i><u>显然</u></i>不是问题。收益率曲线变平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但<i><u>绝对地</u></i>价格上涨没什么可担心的……显然……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apparently</b>and&nbsp;<b>Absolutely</b>&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;<i>Apparently</i>&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;<i>Absolutely</i>guaranteed.. till the company went burst.</p><p><blockquote><b>显然</b>和<b>绝对地</b>在金融领域是两个非常危险的词……它们增加了你完全弄错的可能性，即：<i>显然</i>你不能输，但你输了……回报是<i>绝对地</i>保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)</p><p><blockquote>正如我们今天早上了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至2.5%，这增加了央行致函解释原因的可能性。昨天的总体美国CPI数据甚至更强劲——同比增长5.4%，比上个月增长0.9%！这不完全是津巴布韦，但是…你明白了…当它发生在欧洲时…德国人会大发脾气。（顶级投资提示：长期使用独轮车。）</blockquote></p><p> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。这对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场应该看起来像是被猖獗的通胀打了一巴掌，但是，它似乎还没有吸取教训。今天早上，金融评论充斥着对美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何避免对通胀做出任何“缩减”反应的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，可以理解美联储言论中难以理解的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医剖析，并根据对未说的话和美联储使命的清晰理解得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> Not today.</p><p><blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今天的观察是为了了解杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚和绊倒的，因为他们没有因为加息、缩减开支或做任何可能放松他们过去12年所做的事情而惊吓市场——泡沫市场无限量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;</b><b><i>who are all honourable men and women</i></b><b>, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残酷的现实是央行行长们，</b><b><i>他们都是可敬的男男女女</i></b><b>，明白他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用了。为什么？好吧，这些可敬的男人和女人因为他们的行为而打破了这个系统。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，麻烦还在后头。</b></blockquote></p><p> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和坚持之外，对通胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的“锡拉”和市场崩溃的“腹背受敌”之间。哎呀！这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将获胜并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能随波逐流并继续刺激。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大多数市场关注的是标准普尔指数今天下午的走势、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将超越何处。当涉及到远远超出他们一年时间范围的任何事情时，他们有一个盲人的视野。甚至债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</b></blockquote></p><p> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..</p><p><blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，就很容易忽视证据…通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常现实的问题..</blockquote></p><p> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)</p><p><blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并看到市场已经变得多么扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化，摆脱腐败的金融资产，进入实物资产——这是市场的热门部分（也是我过去12年来在另类资产领域所做的事情）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.</p><p><blockquote>回到通胀，前景很复杂——这也是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视通胀的另一个原因。例如；可以说大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情复苏将激增，并为大流行后的巨大需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在已经逆转，这支持了市场关于通胀数据有些超调的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil is an outlier.</b>OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油是一个异常值。</b>欧佩克是垄断价格制定者，但正在经历另一场周期性组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明难以对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当没有储存时，交易员发现自己拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.</p><p><blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如二手车，价格正在上涨。它暗示了它的细节，具体的通货膨胀因素在每个价格是重要的。汽车就是一个很好的例子——我们都知道，全球芯片短缺导致汽车制造商减产并造成短缺，推高新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，二手车价格上涨。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，越来越多的科技垃圾被投入汽车所证明，更高的成本是“合理的”..随着欧盟宣布到2040年将禁止新型内燃机汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote></p><p> To explain, consider the Land Rover:</p><p><blockquote>为了解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> <b>However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一辆拥有10年低里程、完整保养历史、状况完美的路虎揽胜可能价值1.6万英镑。一个被打了20年却没有任何证件的卫士价值3.2万英镑！但是你可以用Gaffa胶带，WD40和锤子来固定。（如果它动了，不应该：Gaffa胶带它。如果它仍然动；更多的Gaffa胶带。如果它不动：WD40并用锤子说服它。）</li></ul><b>然而，通胀自满可能是央行最不担心的问题。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自全球各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</b></blockquote></p><p> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.</p><p><blockquote>在地球上的任何地方，富裕阶层——那些有储蓄的人，那些在封锁期间过得很好，并且已经在房地产阶梯上的人——一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它助长了债务和缺乏流动性的市场——没有人会卖出，直到他们看到他们想买的东西，阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一个连续更高的梯级上的资产都越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)</p><p><blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部Sec珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)将在金融稳定监督委员会(Financial Stability Oversight Council)上谈论此事，该委员会是2010年全球金融危机(“GFC”)后成立的机构，旨在识别美国金融体系的过度风险。差不多时间了..根据Case-Shiller美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote></p><p> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.</p><p><blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础，这是正确的。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款人违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘，处于他们负担不起的阶梯上，并坐在负资产上泡沫破裂时。</blockquote></p><p> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.</p><p><blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote></p><p> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…</p><p><blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷了。他们将风险转移到了投资领域。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划返还给政府，并返还给现在融资、发放和服务抵押贷款的非银行金融机构……</blockquote></p><p> <b>This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.</b>Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…</p><p><blockquote><b>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段的真正大问题。</b>实物资产！聪明的资金一直在买入实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业无关，但现实是，来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等领域的实物资产，现在都变得越来越泡沫由于所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济。</b></blockquote></p><p> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…</p><p><blockquote>是时候重新思考了……央行里所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的鬼魂会回来困扰他们在2010年开始的货币实验，结果却出了如此严重的问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 11:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“人所行的恶，必后生；善人常与尸骨一同埋葬。凯撒也是如此。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”……市场如此关注短期，忽视了过去10年量化宽松、货币实验和宽松利率的后果，以至于它陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，而且已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于2007年开始的全球金融危机（“GFC”）如何仍然伴随着我们的又一次不定期笔记..我们正在进入一个新的阶段……欣赏《金钱的陨落——GFC：2007-2031》的第384章。</i></blockquote></p><p> This morning – What inflation?</p><p><blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote></p><p> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;<i><u>apparently</u></i>wasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;<i><u>absolutely</u></i>&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…</p><p><blockquote>啊？上周市场确信通胀<i><u>显然</u></i>不是问题。收益率曲线变平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但<i><u>绝对地</u></i>价格上涨没什么可担心的……显然……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apparently</b>and&nbsp;<b>Absolutely</b>&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;<i>Apparently</i>&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;<i>Absolutely</i>guaranteed.. till the company went burst.</p><p><blockquote><b>显然</b>和<b>绝对地</b>在金融领域是两个非常危险的词……它们增加了你完全弄错的可能性，即：<i>显然</i>你不能输，但你输了……回报是<i>绝对地</i>保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)</p><p><blockquote>正如我们今天早上了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至2.5%，这增加了央行致函解释原因的可能性。昨天的总体美国CPI数据甚至更强劲——同比增长5.4%，比上个月增长0.9%！这不完全是津巴布韦，但是…你明白了…当它发生在欧洲时…德国人会大发脾气。（顶级投资提示：长期使用独轮车。）</blockquote></p><p> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。这对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场应该看起来像是被猖獗的通胀打了一巴掌，但是，它似乎还没有吸取教训。今天早上，金融评论充斥着对美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何避免对通胀做出任何“缩减”反应的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，可以理解美联储言论中难以理解的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医剖析，并根据对未说的话和美联储使命的清晰理解得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> Not today.</p><p><blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今天的观察是为了了解杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚和绊倒的，因为他们没有因为加息、缩减开支或做任何可能放松他们过去12年所做的事情而惊吓市场——泡沫市场无限量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;</b><b><i>who are all honourable men and women</i></b><b>, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残酷的现实是央行行长们，</b><b><i>他们都是可敬的男男女女</i></b><b>，明白他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用了。为什么？好吧，这些可敬的男人和女人因为他们的行为而打破了这个系统。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，麻烦还在后头。</b></blockquote></p><p> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和坚持之外，对通胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的“锡拉”和市场崩溃的“腹背受敌”之间。哎呀！这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将获胜并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能随波逐流并继续刺激。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大多数市场关注的是标准普尔指数今天下午的走势、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将超越何处。当涉及到远远超出他们一年时间范围的任何事情时，他们有一个盲人的视野。甚至债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</b></blockquote></p><p> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..</p><p><blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，就很容易忽视证据…通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常现实的问题..</blockquote></p><p> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)</p><p><blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并看到市场已经变得多么扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化，摆脱腐败的金融资产，进入实物资产——这是市场的热门部分（也是我过去12年来在另类资产领域所做的事情）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.</p><p><blockquote>回到通胀，前景很复杂——这也是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视通胀的另一个原因。例如；可以说大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情复苏将激增，并为大流行后的巨大需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在已经逆转，这支持了市场关于通胀数据有些超调的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil is an outlier.</b>OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油是一个异常值。</b>欧佩克是垄断价格制定者，但正在经历另一场周期性组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明难以对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当没有储存时，交易员发现自己拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.</p><p><blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如二手车，价格正在上涨。它暗示了它的细节，具体的通货膨胀因素在每个价格是重要的。汽车就是一个很好的例子——我们都知道，全球芯片短缺导致汽车制造商减产并造成短缺，推高新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，二手车价格上涨。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，越来越多的科技垃圾被投入汽车所证明，更高的成本是“合理的”..随着欧盟宣布到2040年将禁止新型内燃机汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote></p><p> To explain, consider the Land Rover:</p><p><blockquote>为了解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> <b>However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一辆拥有10年低里程、完整保养历史、状况完美的路虎揽胜可能价值1.6万英镑。一个被打了20年却没有任何证件的卫士价值3.2万英镑！但是你可以用Gaffa胶带，WD40和锤子来固定。（如果它动了，不应该：Gaffa胶带它。如果它仍然动；更多的Gaffa胶带。如果它不动：WD40并用锤子说服它。）</li></ul><b>然而，通胀自满可能是央行最不担心的问题。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自全球各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</b></blockquote></p><p> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.</p><p><blockquote>在地球上的任何地方，富裕阶层——那些有储蓄的人，那些在封锁期间过得很好，并且已经在房地产阶梯上的人——一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它助长了债务和缺乏流动性的市场——没有人会卖出，直到他们看到他们想买的东西，阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一个连续更高的梯级上的资产都越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)</p><p><blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部Sec珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)将在金融稳定监督委员会(Financial Stability Oversight Council)上谈论此事，该委员会是2010年全球金融危机(“GFC”)后成立的机构，旨在识别美国金融体系的过度风险。差不多时间了..根据Case-Shiller美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote></p><p> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.</p><p><blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础，这是正确的。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款人违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘，处于他们负担不起的阶梯上，并坐在负资产上泡沫破裂时。</blockquote></p><p> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.</p><p><blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote></p><p> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…</p><p><blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷了。他们将风险转移到了投资领域。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划返还给政府，并返还给现在融资、发放和服务抵押贷款的非银行金融机构……</blockquote></p><p> <b>This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.</b>Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…</p><p><blockquote><b>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段的真正大问题。</b>实物资产！聪明的资金一直在买入实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业无关，但现实是，来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等领域的实物资产，现在都变得越来越泡沫由于所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济。</b></blockquote></p><p> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…</p><p><blockquote>是时候重新思考了……央行里所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的鬼魂会回来困扰他们在2010年开始的货币实验，结果却出了如此严重的问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122873304","content_text":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”\nWhat Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.\nI should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.\nThis morning – What inflation?\nHuh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation apparentlywasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…\nApparentlyand Absolutely are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie: Apparently you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were Absolutelyguaranteed.. till the company went burst.\nAs we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)\nInflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.\nFed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.\nNot today.\nFed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.\nThe brutal reality is the Central Bankers, who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.\nThe start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.\nMost of the market is fixated on what the S&P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.\nThe reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..\nLots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)\nGoing back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.\nOil is an outlier.OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.\nSome of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives.  On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.\nTo explain, consider the Land Rover:\n\nA 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)\n\nHowever, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.\nEverywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.\nThe result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)\nRightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.\nIn the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.\nThe structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…\nThis is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…\nFinancial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….\nTime to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":145445660,"gmtCreate":1626241360950,"gmtModify":1631890651334,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm..&nbsp;","listText":"Hmmm..&nbsp;","text":"Hmmm..","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/145445660","repostId":"1129044669","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1529,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146589287,"gmtCreate":1626090851949,"gmtModify":1631890651329,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"wow","listText":"wow","text":"wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146589287","repostId":"1121762629","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146822168,"gmtCreate":1626068318854,"gmtModify":1631890651334,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Wowwww&nbsp;","listText":"Wowwww&nbsp;","text":"Wowwww","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146822168","repostId":"2150076873","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1357,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146828895,"gmtCreate":1626068104917,"gmtModify":1631890651337,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Nice! 👍","listText":"Nice! 👍","text":"Nice! 👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146828895","repostId":"1155038838","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1346,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146321406,"gmtCreate":1626054852305,"gmtModify":1631890651339,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4087529024557940","authorIdStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146321406","repostId":"1138077902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138077902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625883154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138077902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138077902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review","content":"<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》，综合分析评估参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在评审过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了政府有关部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，并多次听取了腾讯控股的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案相关市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和游戏直播市场。腾讯控股在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼在下游游戏直播市场份额分别超过40%和30%，排名第一和第二，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙分别控制，对斗鱼共同控制。例如，虎牙和斗鱼的合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的主体，进一步强化腾讯控股在游戏直播市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除、限制竞争的效果，不利于市场公平竞争，可能损害消费者利益，不利于网络游戏和游戏直播市场的健康持续发展。经评估，腾讯控股提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争关切。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条、《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，国家市场监管总局依法决定禁止该等经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-10 10:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》，综合分析评估参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在评审过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了政府有关部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，并多次听取了腾讯控股的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案相关市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和游戏直播市场。腾讯控股在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼在下游游戏直播市场份额分别超过40%和30%，排名第一和第二，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙分别控制，对斗鱼共同控制。例如，虎牙和斗鱼的合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的主体，进一步强化腾讯控股在游戏直播市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除、限制竞争的效果，不利于市场公平竞争，可能损害消费者利益，不利于网络游戏和游戏直播市场的健康持续发展。经评估，腾讯控股提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争关切。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条、《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，国家市场监管总局依法决定禁止该等经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HUYA":"虎牙","DOYU":"斗鱼","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138077902","content_text":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.\nOn January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.\nAccording to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.\nThe review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.\nAccording to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social 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10:30","market":"us","language":"en","title":"3 Red-Hot Stocks That Could Continue to Crush the Market<blockquote>3只可能继续碾压市场的热门股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121762629","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"These growth and dividend stocks are thriving.\n\nEconomic recovery concerns and inflation worries hav","content":"<p>  <b>These growth and dividend stocks are thriving.</b>  Economic recovery concerns and inflation worries have been no match for a smoking-hot stock market. Theindustrial sectoris helping to lead the charge. It sports a fair share of up-and-coming growth stocks, as well as large traditional businesses -- many of which are beating the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>这些成长型和股息型股票正在蓬勃发展。</b>经济复苏担忧和通胀担忧无法与炙手可热的股市相媲美。工业部门正在帮助引领潮流。它拥有相当多的新兴成长型股票以及大型传统企业，其中许多企业的表现优于市场。</blockquote></p><p> We asked some of our contributors which stocks they thought could continue to crush the market. They chose&nbsp;<b>Zebra Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:ZBRA),<b>Waste Management</b>(NYSE:WM), and&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO).</p><p><blockquote>我们询问了一些撰稿人，他们认为哪些股票可能会继续碾压市场。他们选择了<b>斑马科技</b>（纳斯达克：ZBRA），<b>废物管理</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WM），以及<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> Zebra Technologies stands out from the crowd</p><p><blockquote>Zebra Technologies脱颖而出</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lee Samaha(Zebra Technologies):</b>Zebra's stock is up 111% over the last year and by 39% in 2021. That's a comfortable outperformance, and it comes as the company's technology has come to the fore during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>Lee Samaha（斑马科技）：</b>Zebra的股价去年上涨了111%，2021年上涨了39%。这是一个令人欣慰的优异表现，而且该公司的技术在大流行期间脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Zebra is a manufacturer of what management calls \"enterprise asset intelligence\" solutions. In plain English, mobile computers, barcode scanners, specialty printers, RFID printers and readers, and other products are used by workers to gather information. Real-world examples of its technology include e-commerce warehouses using scanners to monitor workflows, retailers managing inventory, and healthcare workers tracking and tracing medical products.</p><p><blockquote>斑马是评级“企业资产智能”解决方案的制造商。简单地说，工人们使用移动计算机、条形码扫描仪、专业打印机、RFID打印机和阅读器以及其他产品来收集信息。其技术的现实例子包括使用扫描仪监控工作流程的电子商务仓库、管理库存的零售商以及跟踪和追踪医疗产品的医护人员。</blockquote></p><p> Global supply chains came under a lot of stress during the pandemic, so, understandably, many companies are making investments in Zebra's technologies a priority. Whether companies are looking to invest in automating production in a warehouse or capturing data to use with advanced analytics in a retail or healthcare environment, Zebra's hardware and software solutions have the answer.</p><p><blockquote>全球供应链在疫情期间承受了很大压力，因此，可以理解的是，许多公司将投资Zebra的技术作为优先事项。无论公司是希望投资仓库自动化生产，还是捕获数据以用于零售或医疗保健环境中的高级分析，Zebra的硬件和软件解决方案都能提供答案。</blockquote></p><p> As such, management expects adjusted net sales growth of 18% to 22% in 2021, having started the year forecasting 10% to 14%. Clearly, momentum is behind the company, and it's likely the expansion of smart automation and digitization in the industrial economy is going to encourage multi-year growth in sales of Zebra's solutions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，管理层预计2021年调整后净销售额增长18%至22%，年初预测为10%至14%。显然，该公司背后的势头很大，工业经济中智能自动化和数字化的扩展很可能会鼓励斑马解决方案销售额的多年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on 31 times estimated 2021 earnings, Zebra wouldn't be seen as avalue stockby most. Still, investors should keep an eye out for its results because it wouldn't be a surprise to see Zebra upgrade guidance again, given the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Zebra的市盈率是2021年预期市盈率的31倍，大多数人不会将其视为有价值的股票。尽管如此，投资者仍应密切关注其业绩，因为考虑到经济重新开放，斑马再次升级指引也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> Don't trash this dividend stock</p><p><blockquote>不要扔掉这只股息股票</blockquote></p><p> <b>Daniel Foelber&nbsp;(Waste Management):</b>You may want to keep your distance when passing one of the hundreds of landfills owned by Waste Management, North America's largest integrated trash and recycling services company. But the company's stock performance has left investors smelling like a rose. Waste Management stock is up over 20% so far this year and just blasted to a new all-time high last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>Daniel Foelber（废物管理）：</b>当经过北美最大的综合垃圾和回收服务公司Waste Management拥有的数百个垃圾填埋场中的一个时，你可能需要保持距离。但该公司的股票表现让投资者闻到了玫瑰的味道。今年迄今为止，废物管理公司的股票上涨了20%以上，上周刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While trash and recycling are a steady business model that tends to perform in good times and bad, Waste Management generates a substantial amount of revenue from its industrial and commercial clients. As business slowed during the pandemic, these businesses naturally produced less waste, which presented a challenge. The company responded by implementing cost-cutting measures, many of whichit expects will be permanent.</p><p><blockquote>虽然垃圾和回收是一种稳定的商业模式，在顺境和逆境中都有表现，但废物管理从其工业和商业客户那里产生了大量收入。随着疫情期间业务放缓，这些企业自然产生的废物减少，这带来了挑战。该公司的回应是实施成本削减措施，预计其中许多措施将是永久性的。</blockquote></p><p> These strategic decisions along with its resilient and diversified customer base across a slew of different industries helped it generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) and net incometo support its dividend. The company just raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year andinstituted a new share buyback program. All told, the company plans to distribute nearly $1 billion in dividends and buy back up to $1.35 billion in stock this year.</p><p><blockquote>这些战略决策以及其在众多不同行业的弹性和多元化客户群帮助其产生了大量的自由现金流（FCF）和净利润来支持其股息。该公司刚刚连续第18年提高股息，并实施了新的股票回购计划。总而言之，该公司计划今年派发近10亿美元的股息，并回购高达13.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Waste Management has the potential to combine its stable andrecession resilientbusiness model with the upside of environmentally conscious consumers who are increasingly interested in limiting waste output. During a recent talk at WasteExpo 2021, CEO Jim Fish highlighted the role Waste Management could play in managing and providing the waste necessary for companies to produce plastics and chemicals from sustainably sourced materials. Converting this proposition to profit remains uncertain. But it's a nice long-term trend that's worth following.</p><p><blockquote>废物管理有潜力将其稳定且具有经济衰退弹性的商业模式与具有环保意识的消费者的优势相结合，这些消费者对限制废物产量越来越感兴趣。在WasteExpo 2021最近的一次演讲中，首席执行官Jim Fish强调了废物管理在管理和提供公司利用可持续来源的材料生产塑料和化学品所需的废物方面可以发挥的作用。将这一主张转化为利润仍不确定。但这是一个值得关注的良好长期趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hitch a ride with this EV superstar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>搭这位电动汽车巨星的便车</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Scott Levine(NIO):</b>NIO sputtered along during the first five months of 2021, falling nearly 21%, but the company's stock has taken a U-turn over the past few weeks and is charging higher. In fact, shares of NIO soared nearly 38% inJune&nbsp;while the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>crept more than 2% higher. And there's plenty of reason to believe that this EV manufacturer can continue racing ahead in the days to come.</p><p><blockquote><b>Scott Levine（蔚来）：</b>蔚来在2021年前五个月表现不佳，下跌了近21%，但该公司的股价在过去几周发生了180度大转弯，价格走高。事实上，蔚来股价6月份飙升近38%，而<b>标普500</b>涨幅超过2%。有充分的理由相信这家电动汽车制造商能够在未来的日子里继续领先。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Inthe first quarter of 2021, NIO reported strong growth in the number of deliveries. Achieving a company quarterly record, NIO delivered 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter of the new year, representing year-over-year growth of 490%. But the record was short-lived. Last week, NIO announced that it delivered 21,896 vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 112%, in the second quarter, representing a new quarterly high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，蔚来报告交付数量强劲增长。蔚来在新年第一季度交付了20,060辆汽车，同比增长490%，创下了公司季度纪录。但这一记录是短暂的。上周，蔚来宣布第二季度交付21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%，创下季度新高。</blockquote></p><p> Looking beyond the second quarter, investors will find that the company is working at expanding its charging infrastructure in China through 2021 -- a move that will help assuage the fears of potential customers who are worried about the convenience of charging their vehicles. As of the end of the first quarter, NIO had 206 battery swap stations, yet management forecasts expanding this to over 700 stations by the end of the year. In addition, the company, which had 146 charging stations in its network at the end of March, plans on growing this out to 600 charging stations by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>展望第二季度之后，投资者会发现该公司正在努力在2021年之前扩大其在中国的充电基础设施——此举将有助于缓解担心车辆充电便利性的潜在客户的担忧。截至第一季度末，蔚来拥有206个电池交换站，但管理层预计到今年年底将扩大到700多个。此外，该公司截至3月底的网络中拥有146个充电站，计划到年底将充电站增加到600个。</blockquote></p><p> Besides its efforts to grow its presence in China, NIO aspires to gain a foothold in Europe as well. Last month, the company announced it received approval for the production of its SUV, NIO ES8, including approval for the associated license registrations of the vehicle. The company plans to deliver the first vehicles to Norway, which will be NIO's first overseas market, in September.</p><p><blockquote>除了努力扩大在华业务，蔚来还渴望在欧洲站稳脚跟。上个月，该公司宣布其SUV蔚来ES8的生产已获得批准，包括该车相关牌照注册的批准。该公司计划于9月向挪威交付第一批车辆，挪威将成为蔚来的第一个海外市场。</blockquote></p><p> Providing customers in China with a variety of solutions for keeping their vehicles charged, NIO is aggressively addressing the range anxiety that plagues potential EV owners. It plans on bringing a similar suite of solutions to Europe when it begins deliveries of the vehicles -- something that is distinguishing it from its peers and which should help the company continue on the road to future growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来为中国客户提供各种车辆充电解决方案，积极解决困扰潜在电动汽车车主的里程焦虑。该公司计划在开始交付车辆时将一套类似的解决方案带到欧洲——这是其区别于同行的地方，也有助于该公司继续走上未来增长的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>3 Red-Hot Stocks That Could Continue to Crush the Market<blockquote>3只可能继续碾压市场的热门股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\n3 Red-Hot Stocks That Could Continue to Crush the Market<blockquote>3只可能继续碾压市场的热门股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 10:30</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>These growth and dividend stocks are thriving.</b>  Economic recovery concerns and inflation worries have been no match for a smoking-hot stock market. Theindustrial sectoris helping to lead the charge. It sports a fair share of up-and-coming growth stocks, as well as large traditional businesses -- many of which are beating the market.</p><p><blockquote><b>这些成长型和股息型股票正在蓬勃发展。</b>经济复苏担忧和通胀担忧无法与炙手可热的股市相媲美。工业部门正在帮助引领潮流。它拥有相当多的新兴成长型股票以及大型传统企业，其中许多企业的表现优于市场。</blockquote></p><p> We asked some of our contributors which stocks they thought could continue to crush the market. They chose&nbsp;<b>Zebra Technologies</b>(NASDAQ:ZBRA),<b>Waste Management</b>(NYSE:WM), and&nbsp;<b>NIO</b>(NYSE:NIO).</p><p><blockquote>我们询问了一些撰稿人，他们认为哪些股票可能会继续碾压市场。他们选择了<b>斑马科技</b>（纳斯达克：ZBRA），<b>废物管理</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：WM），以及<b>蔚来</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：蔚来）。</blockquote></p><p> Zebra Technologies stands out from the crowd</p><p><blockquote>Zebra Technologies脱颖而出</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lee Samaha(Zebra Technologies):</b>Zebra's stock is up 111% over the last year and by 39% in 2021. That's a comfortable outperformance, and it comes as the company's technology has come to the fore during the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote><b>Lee Samaha（斑马科技）：</b>Zebra的股价去年上涨了111%，2021年上涨了39%。这是一个令人欣慰的优异表现，而且该公司的技术在大流行期间脱颖而出。</blockquote></p><p> Zebra is a manufacturer of what management calls \"enterprise asset intelligence\" solutions. In plain English, mobile computers, barcode scanners, specialty printers, RFID printers and readers, and other products are used by workers to gather information. Real-world examples of its technology include e-commerce warehouses using scanners to monitor workflows, retailers managing inventory, and healthcare workers tracking and tracing medical products.</p><p><blockquote>斑马是评级“企业资产智能”解决方案的制造商。简单地说，工人们使用移动计算机、条形码扫描仪、专业打印机、RFID打印机和阅读器以及其他产品来收集信息。其技术的现实例子包括使用扫描仪监控工作流程的电子商务仓库、管理库存的零售商以及跟踪和追踪医疗产品的医护人员。</blockquote></p><p> Global supply chains came under a lot of stress during the pandemic, so, understandably, many companies are making investments in Zebra's technologies a priority. Whether companies are looking to invest in automating production in a warehouse or capturing data to use with advanced analytics in a retail or healthcare environment, Zebra's hardware and software solutions have the answer.</p><p><blockquote>全球供应链在疫情期间承受了很大压力，因此，可以理解的是，许多公司将投资Zebra的技术作为优先事项。无论公司是希望投资仓库自动化生产，还是捕获数据以用于零售或医疗保健环境中的高级分析，Zebra的硬件和软件解决方案都能提供答案。</blockquote></p><p> As such, management expects adjusted net sales growth of 18% to 22% in 2021, having started the year forecasting 10% to 14%. Clearly, momentum is behind the company, and it's likely the expansion of smart automation and digitization in the industrial economy is going to encourage multi-year growth in sales of Zebra's solutions.</p><p><blockquote>因此，管理层预计2021年调整后净销售额增长18%至22%，年初预测为10%至14%。显然，该公司背后的势头很大，工业经济中智能自动化和数字化的扩展很可能会鼓励斑马解决方案销售额的多年增长。</blockquote></p><p> Trading on 31 times estimated 2021 earnings, Zebra wouldn't be seen as avalue stockby most. Still, investors should keep an eye out for its results because it wouldn't be a surprise to see Zebra upgrade guidance again, given the reopening economy.</p><p><blockquote>Zebra的市盈率是2021年预期市盈率的31倍，大多数人不会将其视为有价值的股票。尽管如此，投资者仍应密切关注其业绩，因为考虑到经济重新开放，斑马再次升级指引也就不足为奇了。</blockquote></p><p> Don't trash this dividend stock</p><p><blockquote>不要扔掉这只股息股票</blockquote></p><p> <b>Daniel Foelber&nbsp;(Waste Management):</b>You may want to keep your distance when passing one of the hundreds of landfills owned by Waste Management, North America's largest integrated trash and recycling services company. But the company's stock performance has left investors smelling like a rose. Waste Management stock is up over 20% so far this year and just blasted to a new all-time high last week.</p><p><blockquote><b>Daniel Foelber（废物管理）：</b>当经过北美最大的综合垃圾和回收服务公司Waste Management拥有的数百个垃圾填埋场中的一个时，你可能需要保持距离。但该公司的股票表现让投资者闻到了玫瑰的味道。今年迄今为止，废物管理公司的股票上涨了20%以上，上周刚刚创下历史新高。</blockquote></p><p> While trash and recycling are a steady business model that tends to perform in good times and bad, Waste Management generates a substantial amount of revenue from its industrial and commercial clients. As business slowed during the pandemic, these businesses naturally produced less waste, which presented a challenge. The company responded by implementing cost-cutting measures, many of whichit expects will be permanent.</p><p><blockquote>虽然垃圾和回收是一种稳定的商业模式，在顺境和逆境中都有表现，但废物管理从其工业和商业客户那里产生了大量收入。随着疫情期间业务放缓，这些企业自然产生的废物减少，这带来了挑战。该公司的回应是实施成本削减措施，预计其中许多措施将是永久性的。</blockquote></p><p> These strategic decisions along with its resilient and diversified customer base across a slew of different industries helped it generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) and net incometo support its dividend. The company just raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year andinstituted a new share buyback program. All told, the company plans to distribute nearly $1 billion in dividends and buy back up to $1.35 billion in stock this year.</p><p><blockquote>这些战略决策以及其在众多不同行业的弹性和多元化客户群帮助其产生了大量的自由现金流（FCF）和净利润来支持其股息。该公司刚刚连续第18年提高股息，并实施了新的股票回购计划。总而言之，该公司计划今年派发近10亿美元的股息，并回购高达13.5亿美元的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Waste Management has the potential to combine its stable andrecession resilientbusiness model with the upside of environmentally conscious consumers who are increasingly interested in limiting waste output. During a recent talk at WasteExpo 2021, CEO Jim Fish highlighted the role Waste Management could play in managing and providing the waste necessary for companies to produce plastics and chemicals from sustainably sourced materials. Converting this proposition to profit remains uncertain. But it's a nice long-term trend that's worth following.</p><p><blockquote>废物管理有潜力将其稳定且具有经济衰退弹性的商业模式与具有环保意识的消费者的优势相结合，这些消费者对限制废物产量越来越感兴趣。在WasteExpo 2021最近的一次演讲中，首席执行官Jim Fish强调了废物管理在管理和提供公司利用可持续来源的材料生产塑料和化学品所需的废物方面可以发挥的作用。将这一主张转化为利润仍不确定。但这是一个值得关注的良好长期趋势。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Hitch a ride with this EV superstar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>搭这位电动汽车巨星的便车</b></blockquote></p><p> <b>Scott Levine(NIO):</b>NIO sputtered along during the first five months of 2021, falling nearly 21%, but the company's stock has taken a U-turn over the past few weeks and is charging higher. In fact, shares of NIO soared nearly 38% inJune&nbsp;while the<b>S&amp;P 500</b>crept more than 2% higher. And there's plenty of reason to believe that this EV manufacturer can continue racing ahead in the days to come.</p><p><blockquote><b>Scott Levine（蔚来）：</b>蔚来在2021年前五个月表现不佳，下跌了近21%，但该公司的股价在过去几周发生了180度大转弯，价格走高。事实上，蔚来股价6月份飙升近38%，而<b>标普500</b>涨幅超过2%。有充分的理由相信这家电动汽车制造商能够在未来的日子里继续领先。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Inthe first quarter of 2021, NIO reported strong growth in the number of deliveries. Achieving a company quarterly record, NIO delivered 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter of the new year, representing year-over-year growth of 490%. But the record was short-lived. Last week, NIO announced that it delivered 21,896 vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 112%, in the second quarter, representing a new quarterly high-water mark.</p><p><blockquote>2021年第一季度，蔚来报告交付数量强劲增长。蔚来在新年第一季度交付了20,060辆汽车，同比增长490%，创下了公司季度纪录。但这一记录是短暂的。上周，蔚来宣布第二季度交付21,896辆汽车，同比增长112%，创下季度新高。</blockquote></p><p> Looking beyond the second quarter, investors will find that the company is working at expanding its charging infrastructure in China through 2021 -- a move that will help assuage the fears of potential customers who are worried about the convenience of charging their vehicles. As of the end of the first quarter, NIO had 206 battery swap stations, yet management forecasts expanding this to over 700 stations by the end of the year. In addition, the company, which had 146 charging stations in its network at the end of March, plans on growing this out to 600 charging stations by year-end.</p><p><blockquote>展望第二季度之后，投资者会发现该公司正在努力在2021年之前扩大其在中国的充电基础设施——此举将有助于缓解担心车辆充电便利性的潜在客户的担忧。截至第一季度末，蔚来拥有206个电池交换站，但管理层预计到今年年底将扩大到700多个。此外，该公司截至3月底的网络中拥有146个充电站，计划到年底将充电站增加到600个。</blockquote></p><p> Besides its efforts to grow its presence in China, NIO aspires to gain a foothold in Europe as well. Last month, the company announced it received approval for the production of its SUV, NIO ES8, including approval for the associated license registrations of the vehicle. The company plans to deliver the first vehicles to Norway, which will be NIO's first overseas market, in September.</p><p><blockquote>除了努力扩大在华业务，蔚来还渴望在欧洲站稳脚跟。上个月，该公司宣布其SUV蔚来ES8的生产已获得批准，包括该车相关牌照注册的批准。该公司计划于9月向挪威交付第一批车辆，挪威将成为蔚来的第一个海外市场。</blockquote></p><p> Providing customers in China with a variety of solutions for keeping their vehicles charged, NIO is aggressively addressing the range anxiety that plagues potential EV owners. It plans on bringing a similar suite of solutions to Europe when it begins deliveries of the vehicles -- something that is distinguishing it from its peers and which should help the company continue on the road to future growth.</p><p><blockquote>蔚来为中国客户提供各种车辆充电解决方案，积极解决困扰潜在电动汽车车主的里程焦虑。该公司计划在开始交付车辆时将一套类似的解决方案带到欧洲——这是其区别于同行的地方，也有助于该公司继续走上未来增长的道路。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/11/3-red-hot-stocks-that-could-continue-to-crush-the/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"WM":"美国废物管理","NIO":"蔚来","ZBRA":"斑马技术"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/07/11/3-red-hot-stocks-that-could-continue-to-crush-the/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121762629","content_text":"These growth and dividend stocks are thriving.\n\nEconomic recovery concerns and inflation worries have been no match for a smoking-hot stock market. Theindustrial sectoris helping to lead the charge. It sports a fair share of up-and-coming growth stocks, as well as large traditional businesses -- many of which are beating the market.\nWe asked some of our contributors which stocks they thought could continue to crush the market. They chose Zebra Technologies(NASDAQ:ZBRA),Waste Management(NYSE:WM), and NIO(NYSE:NIO).\nZebra Technologies stands out from the crowd\nLee Samaha(Zebra Technologies):Zebra's stock is up 111% over the last year and by 39% in 2021. That's a comfortable outperformance, and it comes as the company's technology has come to the fore during the pandemic.\nZebra is a manufacturer of what management calls \"enterprise asset intelligence\" solutions. In plain English, mobile computers, barcode scanners, specialty printers, RFID printers and readers, and other products are used by workers to gather information. Real-world examples of its technology include e-commerce warehouses using scanners to monitor workflows, retailers managing inventory, and healthcare workers tracking and tracing medical products.\nGlobal supply chains came under a lot of stress during the pandemic, so, understandably, many companies are making investments in Zebra's technologies a priority. Whether companies are looking to invest in automating production in a warehouse or capturing data to use with advanced analytics in a retail or healthcare environment, Zebra's hardware and software solutions have the answer.\nAs such, management expects adjusted net sales growth of 18% to 22% in 2021, having started the year forecasting 10% to 14%. Clearly, momentum is behind the company, and it's likely the expansion of smart automation and digitization in the industrial economy is going to encourage multi-year growth in sales of Zebra's solutions.\nTrading on 31 times estimated 2021 earnings, Zebra wouldn't be seen as avalue stockby most. Still, investors should keep an eye out for its results because it wouldn't be a surprise to see Zebra upgrade guidance again, given the reopening economy.\nDon't trash this dividend stock\nDaniel Foelber (Waste Management):You may want to keep your distance when passing one of the hundreds of landfills owned by Waste Management, North America's largest integrated trash and recycling services company. But the company's stock performance has left investors smelling like a rose. Waste Management stock is up over 20% so far this year and just blasted to a new all-time high last week.\nWhile trash and recycling are a steady business model that tends to perform in good times and bad, Waste Management generates a substantial amount of revenue from its industrial and commercial clients. As business slowed during the pandemic, these businesses naturally produced less waste, which presented a challenge. The company responded by implementing cost-cutting measures, many of whichit expects will be permanent.\nThese strategic decisions along with its resilient and diversified customer base across a slew of different industries helped it generate plenty of free cash flow (FCF) and net incometo support its dividend. The company just raised its dividend for the 18th consecutive year andinstituted a new share buyback program. All told, the company plans to distribute nearly $1 billion in dividends and buy back up to $1.35 billion in stock this year.\nWaste Management has the potential to combine its stable andrecession resilientbusiness model with the upside of environmentally conscious consumers who are increasingly interested in limiting waste output. During a recent talk at WasteExpo 2021, CEO Jim Fish highlighted the role Waste Management could play in managing and providing the waste necessary for companies to produce plastics and chemicals from sustainably sourced materials. Converting this proposition to profit remains uncertain. But it's a nice long-term trend that's worth following.\nHitch a ride with this EV superstar\nScott Levine(NIO):NIO sputtered along during the first five months of 2021, falling nearly 21%, but the company's stock has taken a U-turn over the past few weeks and is charging higher. In fact, shares of NIO soared nearly 38% inJune while theS&P 500crept more than 2% higher. And there's plenty of reason to believe that this EV manufacturer can continue racing ahead in the days to come.\nInthe first quarter of 2021, NIO reported strong growth in the number of deliveries. Achieving a company quarterly record, NIO delivered 20,060 vehicles in the first quarter of the new year, representing year-over-year growth of 490%. But the record was short-lived. Last week, NIO announced that it delivered 21,896 vehicles, a year-over-year increase of 112%, in the second quarter, representing a new quarterly high-water mark.\nLooking beyond the second quarter, investors will find that the company is working at expanding its charging infrastructure in China through 2021 -- a move that will help assuage the fears of potential customers who are worried about the convenience of charging their vehicles. As of the end of the first quarter, NIO had 206 battery swap stations, yet management forecasts expanding this to over 700 stations by the end of the year. In addition, the company, which had 146 charging stations in its network at the end of March, plans on growing this out to 600 charging stations by year-end.\nBesides its efforts to grow its presence in China, NIO aspires to gain a foothold in Europe as well. Last month, the company announced it received approval for the production of its SUV, NIO ES8, including approval for the associated license registrations of the vehicle. The company plans to deliver the first vehicles to Norway, which will be NIO's first overseas market, in September.\nProviding customers in China with a variety of solutions for keeping their vehicles charged, NIO is aggressively addressing the range anxiety that plagues potential EV owners. It plans on bringing a similar suite of solutions to Europe when it begins deliveries of the vehicles -- something that is distinguishing it from its peers and which should help the company continue on the road to future growth.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZBRA":0.9,"WM":0.9,"NIO":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2228,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146321406,"gmtCreate":1626054852305,"gmtModify":1631890651339,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087529024557940","idStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmmm","listText":"Hmmmm","text":"Hmmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146321406","repostId":"1138077902","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1138077902","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1625883154,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1138077902?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 10:12","market":"hk","language":"en","title":"China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1138077902","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review","content":"<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》，综合分析评估参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在评审过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了政府有关部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，并多次听取了腾讯控股的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案相关市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和游戏直播市场。腾讯控股在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼在下游游戏直播市场份额分别超过40%和30%，排名第一和第二，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙分别控制，对斗鱼共同控制。例如，虎牙和斗鱼的合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的主体，进一步强化腾讯控股在游戏直播市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除、限制竞争的效果，不利于市场公平竞争，可能损害消费者利益，不利于网络游戏和游戏直播市场的健康持续发展。经评估，腾讯控股提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争关切。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条、《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，国家市场监管总局依法决定禁止该等经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nChina has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu<blockquote>中国禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-10 10:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.</p><p><blockquote>中国国家市场监督管理总局禁止虎牙和斗鱼合并。</blockquote></p><p> On January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.</p><p><blockquote>2021年1月4日，国家市场监督管理总局对腾讯控股控股有限公司申报的虎牙公司与斗鱼国际控股有限公司合并一案依法进行了经营者集中反垄断审查。</blockquote></p><p> According to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.</p><p><blockquote>市场监管总局依据《反垄断法》，综合分析评估参与集中的经营者在相关市场的市场份额及其对市场的控制力、市场集中程度、集中对市场进入和技术进步的影响、集中对消费者和其他相关经营者的影响，以及腾讯控股提出的附加限制性承诺方案的有效性。在评审过程中，市场监管总局广泛征求了政府有关部门、行业协会、专家学者、同行业竞争对手和下游客户的意见，并多次听取了腾讯控股的意见。</blockquote></p><p> The review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.</p><p><blockquote>审查显示，本案相关市场为我国网络游戏运营服务市场和游戏直播市场。腾讯控股在上游网络游戏运营服务市场份额超过40%，排名第一；虎牙和斗鱼在下游游戏直播市场份额分别超过40%和30%，排名第一和第二，合计超过70%。目前，腾讯控股对虎牙分别控制，对斗鱼共同控制。例如，虎牙和斗鱼的合并将使腾讯控股单独控制合并后的主体，进一步强化腾讯控股在游戏直播市场的主导地位，使腾讯控股有能力和动力在上下游市场实施闭环管理和双向垂直封锁，具有或可能具有排除、限制竞争的效果，不利于市场公平竞争，可能损害消费者利益，不利于网络游戏和游戏直播市场的健康持续发展。经评估，腾讯控股提出的附加限制性条件承诺不能有效解决上述竞争关切。</blockquote></p><p> According to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.</p><p><blockquote>根据《反垄断法》第二十八条、《经营者集中审查暂行规定》第三十五条的规定，国家市场监管总局依法决定禁止该等经营者集中。</blockquote></p><p> Tencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social responsibilities.</p><p><blockquote>腾讯控股回应称，公司将认真遵守审查决定，积极配合监管要求，依法经营，履行社会责任。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HUYA":"虎牙","DOYU":"斗鱼","00700":"腾讯控股"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1138077902","content_text":"The State Administration of market supervision of China has prohibited the merger of HuYa and DouYu.\nOn January 4, 2021, the State Administration of market supervision of the people's Republic of China conducted an anti-monopoly examination on the concentration of business operators in accordance with the law in the merger case of tiger tooth company and Betta International Holding Co., Ltd. declared by Tencent Holding Co., Ltd.\nAccording to the anti monopoly law, the State Administration of market supervision comprehensively analyzes and evaluates the market share of the operators participating in the concentration in the relevant market and their control over the market, the degree of market concentration, the impact of concentration on market entry and technological progress, the impact of concentration on consumers and other relevant operators, as well as the effectiveness of the additional restrictive commitment scheme proposed by Tencent. During the review process, the State Administration of market supervision extensively solicited opinions from relevant government departments, industry associations, experts and scholars, competitors in the same industry and downstream customers, and listened to Tencent's opinions for many times.\nThe review shows that the relevant market of this case is the online game operation service market and the live game market in China. Tencent's market share in the upstream online game operation service exceeds 40%, ranking first; Tiger teeth and fighting fish have more than 40% and 30% of the downstream live game market shares respectively, ranking first and second, with a total of more than 70%. At present, Tencent has separate control over tiger tooth and joint control over Betta. For example, the merger of tiger tooth and Betta will make Tencent control the merged entity separately, further strengthen Tencent's dominant position in the live game market, and enable Tencent to have the ability and motivation to implement closed-loop management and two-way vertical blockade in the upstream and downstream markets, which has or may have the effect of excluding and limiting competition, which is not conducive to fair competition in the market and may damage the interests of consumers, It is not conducive to the healthy and sustainable development of online games and live game market. After evaluation, Tencent's proposal of additional restrictive conditions commitment can not effectively solve the above competition concerns.\nAccording to Article 28 of the anti monopoly law and Article 35 of the Interim Provisions on the examination of business concentration, the State Administration of market supervision has decided to prohibit such business concentration according to law.\nTencent responded that the company will seriously abide by the review decision, actively cooperate with regulatory requirements, operate in accordance with the law and fulfill its social 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06:14","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1165176874","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. . I devoted two columns to Martin’s f","content":"<p>  Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.  Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年10月开始下跌20%以上以来，市场广度从未如此糟糕。准备好迎接自2020年3月牛市开始以来最严重的调整吧。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，华尔街的预测多如牛毛。但这句话来自投资咨询公司Market Extremes的总裁海耶斯·马丁(Hayes Martin)。几年前，我被介绍给马丁的工作，从那以后，我发现他对市场转折点的预测令人印象深刻。（郑重声明：马丁没有投资通讯；我的通讯跟踪公司不会审计他的投资业绩。）</blockquote></p><p> I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一年里，我专门写了两篇专栏文章来讨论马丁的预测，两篇文章都被证明是有先见之明的。2020年5月，我得出的结论是“股市……比最看涨的投资者想象的还要强劲。”今年1月，我写道，市场仍在“火力全开”。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)</p><p><blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote></p><p> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.</p><p><blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The source of the market’s ill-health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场不健康的根源</b></blockquote></p><p> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.</p><p><blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote></p><p> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.</p><p><blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”</p><p><blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote></p><p> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.</p><p><blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.</p><p><blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Expect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nExpect a 10% or worse correction in U.S. stocks by mid-August, says this forecaster with a proven track record<blockquote>这位拥有良好业绩记录的预测者表示，预计到8月中旬美国股市将出现10%或更糟的调整</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-16 06:14</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.  Get ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.</p><p><blockquote>自2018年10月开始下跌20%以上以来，市场广度从未如此糟糕。准备好迎接自2020年3月牛市开始以来最严重的调整吧。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)</p><p><blockquote>可以肯定的是，华尔街的预测多如牛毛。但这句话来自投资咨询公司Market Extremes的总裁海耶斯·马丁(Hayes Martin)。几年前，我被介绍给马丁的工作，从那以后，我发现他对市场转折点的预测令人印象深刻。（郑重声明：马丁没有投资通讯；我的通讯跟踪公司不会审计他的投资业绩。）</blockquote></p><p> I devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”</p><p><blockquote>在过去的一年里，我专门写了两篇专栏文章来讨论马丁的预测，两篇文章都被证明是有先见之明的。2020年5月，我得出的结论是“股市……比最看涨的投资者想象的还要强劲。”今年1月，我写道，市场仍在“火力全开”。</blockquote></p><p> In an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)</p><p><blockquote>马丁在7月14日接受采访时表示，今天的美国股市绝对没有全力以赴。他表示，事实上，市场的内部健康状况现在比2018年10月以来的任何时候都要糟糕。这是标准普尔500SPX下跌20%（-0.33%）和小盘股罗素2000指数RUT下跌26%（-0.55%）的开始。（马丁也预料到了这种下跌；见2018年10月4日，专栏。）</blockquote></p><p> Martin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.</p><p><blockquote>马丁赶紧补充道，如今市场的内部健康状况并不像2018年那么糟糕。这一次，他预测美国主要股指将下跌10%或更多。至于时机，他表示下跌可能随时开始，但他预计最迟不会在八月中旬开始。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The source of the market’s ill-health</b></p><p><blockquote><b>市场不健康的根源</b></blockquote></p><p> Martin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&amp;P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.</p><p><blockquote>马丁的发人深省的预测是基于美国市场内部日益扩大的分歧，正如越来越少的股票参与领先指数的头条新闻所表明的那样。例如，这些分歧的一个指标是越来越多的股票创下新低。例如，本周三，尽管纳斯达克100NDX,-0.71%和标准普尔100OEX,-0.37%指数创下新高，但许多板块却创下多个新低。</blockquote></p><p> This was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&amp;P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.</p><p><blockquote>这在以罗素2000指数为代表的中小型股板块中尤为明显。7月13日，该指数连续第二天新低多于新高。在马丁关于罗素2000指数新高和新低的数据中，可以追溯到2000年6月，本周发生的事情只发生过三次——2014年9月、2015年7月和2018年10月。在这三种情况下，三个月后，标普500和罗素2000指数都下跌了至少10%。</blockquote></p><p> Martin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&amp;P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”</p><p><blockquote>Martin报告称，目前市场上唯一没有显示出危险分歧的领域是大盘股主导的标普500。他表示，除了该行业之外，“股市目前的内部情况是我几十年来见过的最糟糕的。”</blockquote></p><p> Martin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.</p><p><blockquote>马丁补充说，这些严重分歧的发生是因为股市被严重高估——一些股票处于泡沫区域。这意味着，当市场确实下跌时，它的跌幅可能会比其他情况下更大。</blockquote></p><p> Adding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.</p><p><blockquote>他继续说，火上浇油的是目前普遍存在的过于乐观的投资者情绪。正如逆向投资者提醒我们的那样，这种极端情绪意味着市场阻力最小的路径是下跌。</blockquote></p><p> To be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.</p><p><blockquote>马丁总结道，可以肯定的是，股票被高估已经有一段时间了，看涨情绪已经达到或接近极端。缺失的部分是市场分歧。那块现在就位了。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/expect-a-10-correction-in-u-s-stocks-by-mid-august-says-this-forecaster-with-a-proven-track-record-11626380633?siteid=yhoof2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1165176874","content_text":"Market breadth hasn’t been this poor since October 2018 and the start of a 20%-plus decline.\n\nGet ready for the most severe correction since the bull market began in March 2020.\nTo be sure, predictions are a dime a dozen on Wall Street. But this one comes from Hayes Martin, president of investment advisory firmMarket Extremes. I was introduced to Martin’s work several years ago and since then I’ve found his predictions of market turning points to be impressive. (For the record: Martin does not have an investment newsletter; my newsletter-tracking firm does not audit his investment performance.)\nI devoted two columns to Martin’s forecasts over the past year, and both proved prescient. In May 2020, I concluded that “the stock market… is stronger than even the most bullish investors believe.” In January of this year, I wrote that the market was still “firing on all cylinders.”\nIn an interview on July 14, Martin said the U.S. stock market today is most definitely not firing on all cylinders. In fact, he said, the market’s internal health is now worse than at any time since October 2018. That was the beginning of a 20% decline in the S&P 500SPX,-0.33%and a 26% decline in the small-cap Russell 2000 IndexRUT,-0.55%.(Martin anticipated that decline as well; seemy Oct. 4, 2018, column.)\nMartin hastened to add that the market’s internal health is not as bad today as it was in 2018. This time around, he is forecasting a decline of 10% or more for the leading U.S. stock indexes. As for timing, he says that the decline could begin at any time, but he anticipates that it will begin no later than mid-August.\nThe source of the market’s ill-health\nMartin bases his sobering forecast on the increasing divergences within the U.S. market, as indicated by fewer and fewer stocks participating in the headline-grabbing strength of the leading indices. One indicator of these divergences is the growing number of stocks hitting new lows, for example. On Wednesday of this week, for example, even as the Nasdaq 100NDX,-0.71%and the S&P 100OEX,-0.37%indexes were hitting new highs, many sectors were registering a plurality of new lows.\nThis was particularly evident in the small- and mid-cap sectors, as represented by the Russell 2000 index. On July 13 there were more new lows than new highs within that index for the second consecutive day. In Martin’s data for the Russell 2000’s new highs and new lows, which extends back to June 2000, what happened this week has happened only three other times — in September 2014, July 2015 and October 2018. In all three cases, three months later both the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 were at least 10% lower.\nMartin reports that the only area of the market not showing dangerous divergences right now is the large-cap dominated S&P 500. Except for that sector, he says that the “stock market’s current internals are some of the worst I’ve seen in decades.”\nMartin added that these severe divergences are occurring as equities are severely overvalued — with some stocks in bubble territory. This means that, when the market does decline, it’s likely to fall more than it would otherwise.\nAdding fuel to the fire, he continued, is the too-bullish investor sentiment that prevails right now. As contrarians remind us, such sentiment extremes mean that the path of least resistance for the market is down.\nTo be sure, Martin concluded, stocks have been overvalued for some time now, and bullish sentiment has been at or close to extremes. The missing piece was market divergences. That piece is now in place.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1735,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":147183947,"gmtCreate":1626341511389,"gmtModify":1631890651327,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087529024557940","idStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Another source of info&nbsp;","listText":"Another source of info&nbsp;","text":"Another source of info","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/147183947","repostId":"1122873304","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1122873304","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626320892,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1122873304?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-15 11:48","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1122873304","media":"zerohedge","summary":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”“Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”…The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.I should warn readers this morning’","content":"<p><i>“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“人所行的恶，必后生；善人常与尸骨一同埋葬。凯撒也是如此。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”……市场如此关注短期，忽视了过去10年量化宽松、货币实验和宽松利率的后果，以至于它陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，而且已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于2007年开始的全球金融危机（“GFC”）如何仍然伴随着我们的又一次不定期笔记..我们正在进入一个新的阶段……欣赏《金钱的陨落——GFC：2007-2031》的第384章。</i></blockquote></p><p> This morning – What inflation?</p><p><blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote></p><p> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;<i><u>apparently</u></i>wasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;<i><u>absolutely</u></i>&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…</p><p><blockquote>啊？上周市场确信通胀<i><u>显然</u></i>不是问题。收益率曲线变平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但<i><u>绝对地</u></i>价格上涨没什么可担心的……显然……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apparently</b>and&nbsp;<b>Absolutely</b>&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;<i>Apparently</i>&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;<i>Absolutely</i>guaranteed.. till the company went burst.</p><p><blockquote><b>显然</b>和<b>绝对地</b>在金融领域是两个非常危险的词……它们增加了你完全弄错的可能性，即：<i>显然</i>你不能输，但你输了……回报是<i>绝对地</i>保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)</p><p><blockquote>正如我们今天早上了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至2.5%，这增加了央行致函解释原因的可能性。昨天的总体美国CPI数据甚至更强劲——同比增长5.4%，比上个月增长0.9%！这不完全是津巴布韦，但是…你明白了…当它发生在欧洲时…德国人会大发脾气。（顶级投资提示：长期使用独轮车。）</blockquote></p><p> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。这对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场应该看起来像是被猖獗的通胀打了一巴掌，但是，它似乎还没有吸取教训。今天早上，金融评论充斥着对美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何避免对通胀做出任何“缩减”反应的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，可以理解美联储言论中难以理解的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医剖析，并根据对未说的话和美联储使命的清晰理解得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> Not today.</p><p><blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今天的观察是为了了解杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚和绊倒的，因为他们没有因为加息、缩减开支或做任何可能放松他们过去12年所做的事情而惊吓市场——泡沫市场无限量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;</b><b><i>who are all honourable men and women</i></b><b>, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残酷的现实是央行行长们，</b><b><i>他们都是可敬的男男女女</i></b><b>，明白他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用了。为什么？好吧，这些可敬的男人和女人因为他们的行为而打破了这个系统。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，麻烦还在后头。</b></blockquote></p><p> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和坚持之外，对通胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的“锡拉”和市场崩溃的“腹背受敌”之间。哎呀！这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将获胜并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能随波逐流并继续刺激。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大多数市场关注的是标准普尔指数今天下午的走势、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将超越何处。当涉及到远远超出他们一年时间范围的任何事情时，他们有一个盲人的视野。甚至债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</b></blockquote></p><p> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..</p><p><blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，就很容易忽视证据…通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常现实的问题..</blockquote></p><p> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)</p><p><blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并看到市场已经变得多么扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化，摆脱腐败的金融资产，进入实物资产——这是市场的热门部分（也是我过去12年来在另类资产领域所做的事情）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.</p><p><blockquote>回到通胀，前景很复杂——这也是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视通胀的另一个原因。例如；可以说大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情复苏将激增，并为大流行后的巨大需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在已经逆转，这支持了市场关于通胀数据有些超调的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil is an outlier.</b>OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油是一个异常值。</b>欧佩克是垄断价格制定者，但正在经历另一场周期性组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明难以对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当没有储存时，交易员发现自己拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.</p><p><blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如二手车，价格正在上涨。它暗示了它的细节，具体的通货膨胀因素在每个价格是重要的。汽车就是一个很好的例子——我们都知道，全球芯片短缺导致汽车制造商减产并造成短缺，推高新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，二手车价格上涨。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，越来越多的科技垃圾被投入汽车所证明，更高的成本是“合理的”..随着欧盟宣布到2040年将禁止新型内燃机汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote></p><p> To explain, consider the Land Rover:</p><p><blockquote>为了解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> <b>However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一辆拥有10年低里程、完整保养历史、状况完美的路虎揽胜可能价值1.6万英镑。一个被打了20年却没有任何证件的卫士价值3.2万英镑！但是你可以用Gaffa胶带，WD40和锤子来固定。（如果它动了，不应该：Gaffa胶带它。如果它仍然动；更多的Gaffa胶带。如果它不动：WD40并用锤子说服它。）</li></ul><b>然而，通胀自满可能是央行最不担心的问题。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自全球各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</b></blockquote></p><p> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.</p><p><blockquote>在地球上的任何地方，富裕阶层——那些有储蓄的人，那些在封锁期间过得很好，并且已经在房地产阶梯上的人——一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它助长了债务和缺乏流动性的市场——没有人会卖出，直到他们看到他们想买的东西，阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一个连续更高的梯级上的资产都越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)</p><p><blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部Sec珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)将在金融稳定监督委员会(Financial Stability Oversight Council)上谈论此事，该委员会是2010年全球金融危机(“GFC”)后成立的机构，旨在识别美国金融体系的过度风险。差不多时间了..根据Case-Shiller美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote></p><p> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.</p><p><blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础，这是正确的。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款人违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘，处于他们负担不起的阶梯上，并坐在负资产上泡沫破裂时。</blockquote></p><p> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.</p><p><blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote></p><p> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…</p><p><blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷了。他们将风险转移到了投资领域。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划返还给政府，并返还给现在融资、发放和服务抵押贷款的非银行金融机构……</blockquote></p><p> <b>This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.</b>Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…</p><p><blockquote><b>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段的真正大问题。</b>实物资产！聪明的资金一直在买入实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业无关，但现实是，来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等领域的实物资产，现在都变得越来越泡沫由于所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济。</b></blockquote></p><p> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…</p><p><blockquote>是时候重新思考了……央行里所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的鬼魂会回来困扰他们在2010年开始的货币实验，结果却出了如此严重的问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Inflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nInflation: The Next Stage Of The Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031<blockquote>通货膨胀：2007-2031年全球金融危机的下一阶段</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-15 11:48</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i>“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”</i></p><p><blockquote><i>“人所行的恶，必后生；善人常与尸骨一同埋葬。凯撒也是如此。”</i></blockquote></p><p> <b><i>What Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.</i></b></p><p><blockquote><b><i>什么通货膨胀？“哦，这没什么好担心的，央行别无选择，只能继续刺激市场”……市场如此关注短期，忽视了过去10年量化宽松、货币实验和宽松利率的后果，以至于它陷入了下一场危机。通货膨胀很重要，而且已经从金融资产跳到了实体经济。</i></b></blockquote></p><p> <i>I should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of&nbsp;The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我应该警告读者，今天早上的粥将是我关于2007年开始的全球金融危机（“GFC”）如何仍然伴随着我们的又一次不定期笔记..我们正在进入一个新的阶段……欣赏《金钱的陨落——GFC：2007-2031》的第384章。</i></blockquote></p><p> This morning – What inflation?</p><p><blockquote>今天早上——什么通货膨胀？</blockquote></p><p> Huh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation&nbsp;<i><u>apparently</u></i>wasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was&nbsp;<i><u>absolutely</u></i>&nbsp;nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…</p><p><blockquote>啊？上周市场确信通胀<i><u>显然</u></i>不是问题。收益率曲线变平，债券收紧，尽管股市预计将迎来有史以来最好的财报季，但<i><u>绝对地</u></i>价格上涨没什么可担心的……显然……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Apparently</b>and&nbsp;<b>Absolutely</b>&nbsp;are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie:&nbsp;<i>Apparently</i>&nbsp;you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were&nbsp;<i>Absolutely</i>guaranteed.. till the company went burst.</p><p><blockquote><b>显然</b>和<b>绝对地</b>在金融领域是两个非常危险的词……它们增加了你完全弄错的可能性，即：<i>显然</i>你不能输，但你输了……回报是<i>绝对地</i>保证..直到公司倒闭。</blockquote></p><p> As we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)</p><p><blockquote>正如我们今天早上了解到的那样，英国通胀率已升至2.5%，这增加了央行致函解释原因的可能性。昨天的总体美国CPI数据甚至更强劲——同比增长5.4%，比上个月增长0.9%！这不完全是津巴布韦，但是…你明白了…当它发生在欧洲时…德国人会大发脾气。（顶级投资提示：长期使用独轮车。）</blockquote></p><p> Inflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.</p><p><blockquote>通货膨胀很重要。这对债券和长期回报至关重要。市场应该看起来像是被猖獗的通胀打了一巴掌，但是，它似乎还没有吸取教训。今天早上，金融评论充斥着对美联储、英国央行和欧洲央行将如何避免对通胀做出任何“缩减”反应的暗示，以防止泡沫市场崩溃的分析。</blockquote></p><p> Fed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.</p><p><blockquote>观察美联储曾经是一门微妙的艺术，可以理解美联储言论中难以理解的细微差别，对评论和数字进行法医剖析，并根据对未说的话和美联储使命的清晰理解得出结论。</blockquote></p><p> Not today.</p><p><blockquote>今天不行。</blockquote></p><p> Fed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.</p><p><blockquote>美联储今天的观察是为了了解杰罗姆·鲍威尔和他的快乐团伙现在是如何被束缚和绊倒的，因为他们没有因为加息、缩减开支或做任何可能放松他们过去12年所做的事情而惊吓市场——泡沫市场无限量化宽松、不适当的利率、监管和旋转。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The brutal reality is the Central Bankers,&nbsp;</b><b><i>who are all honourable men and women</i></b><b>, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>残酷的现实是央行行长们，</b><b><i>他们都是可敬的男男女女</i></b><b>，明白他们拉动的杠杆不再像以前那样发挥作用了。为什么？好吧，这些可敬的男人和女人因为他们的行为而打破了这个系统。哎呀。现在他们别无选择，只能跟随..这意味着在全球金融体系得到解决之前，麻烦还在后头。</b></blockquote></p><p> The start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.</p><p><blockquote>最初的现实是，央行除了希望和坚持之外，对通胀没有答案。他们被夹在通货膨胀的“锡拉”和市场崩溃的“腹背受敌”之间。哎呀！这就是为什么如此多的分析师相信市场将获胜并继续走高——因为央行别无选择，只能随波逐流并继续刺激。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Most of the market is fixated on what the S&amp;P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>大多数市场关注的是标准普尔指数今天下午的走势、纳斯达克本月将创下什么新高，或者亚马逊本季度将超越何处。当涉及到远远超出他们一年时间范围的任何事情时，他们有一个盲人的视野。甚至债券市场似乎也是盲目的。</b></blockquote></p><p> The reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..</p><p><blockquote>现实是投资应该是长期的。如果你为了短期收益而忽视未来，就很容易忽视证据…通货膨胀实际上是一个非常非常现实的问题..</blockquote></p><p> Lots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)</p><p><blockquote>许多聪明的非金融资产基金确实明白这一点，并看到市场已经变得多么扭曲。这就是为什么他们如此热衷于多元化，摆脱腐败的金融资产，进入实物资产——这是市场的热门部分（也是我过去12年来在另类资产领域所做的事情）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Going back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.</p><p><blockquote>回到通胀，前景很复杂——这也是金融博客圈如此大一部分人忽视通胀的另一个原因。例如；可以说大宗商品价格上涨是囤积的一个因素；制造商预计新冠疫情复苏将激增，并为大流行后的巨大需求做好准备。从铜到木材等大宗商品的飙升现在已经逆转，这支持了市场关于通胀数据有些超调的论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oil is an outlier.</b>OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.</p><p><blockquote><b>石油是一个异常值。</b>欧佩克是垄断价格制定者，但正在经历另一场周期性组织危机，导致价格飙升，事实证明难以对冲。拥有石油对任何人来说都不是一个愉快的结果——正如我们去年看到的那样，当没有储存时，交易员发现自己拥有负价格的石油。</blockquote></p><p> Some of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives. &nbsp;On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.</p><p><blockquote>经济中一些重要的潜在趋势——比如二手车，价格正在上涨。它暗示了它的细节，具体的通货膨胀因素在每个价格是重要的。汽车就是一个很好的例子——我们都知道，全球芯片短缺导致汽车制造商减产并造成短缺，推高新车价格，随着消费者寻求替代品，二手车价格上涨。另一方面，新车价格多年来一直在上涨，越来越多的科技垃圾被投入汽车所证明，更高的成本是“合理的”..随着欧盟宣布到2040年将禁止新型内燃机汽车，我想知道我们是否会看到新的反趋势发展。</blockquote></p><p> To explain, consider the Land Rover:</p><p><blockquote>为了解释这一点，请考虑路虎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>A 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)</li> </ul> <b>However, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>一辆拥有10年低里程、完整保养历史、状况完美的路虎揽胜可能价值1.6万英镑。一个被打了20年却没有任何证件的卫士价值3.2万英镑！但是你可以用Gaffa胶带，WD40和锤子来固定。（如果它动了，不应该：Gaffa胶带它。如果它仍然动；更多的Gaffa胶带。如果它不动：WD40并用锤子说服它。）</li></ul><b>然而，通胀自满可能是央行最不担心的问题。你可能已经发现了越来越多来自全球各地的关于房价通胀的令人窒息的文章。</b></blockquote></p><p> Everywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.</p><p><blockquote>在地球上的任何地方，富裕阶层——那些有储蓄的人，那些在封锁期间过得很好，并且已经在房地产阶梯上的人——一直在推动房地产价格的上涨。它助长了债务和缺乏流动性的市场——没有人会卖出，直到他们看到他们想买的东西，阶梯实际上是一个金字塔，每一个连续更高的梯级上的资产都越来越少。</blockquote></p><p> The result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)</p><p><blockquote>结果是几乎所有地方的房价都创历史新高。本周，鲍威尔和美国财政部Sec珍妮特·耶伦(Janet Yellen)将在金融稳定监督委员会(Financial Stability Oversight Council)上谈论此事，该委员会是2010年全球金融危机(“GFC”)后成立的机构，旨在识别美国金融体系的过度风险。差不多时间了..根据Case-Shiller美国房地产价值指数，房地产泡沫比2007年更大。（顺便说一句……其他市场也是如此……但是，我以前已经说过很多次了……）</blockquote></p><p> Rightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.</p><p><blockquote>珍妮特和杰罗姆担心第二次房地产泡沫破裂可能会再次动摇金融的基础，这是正确的。然而，这一次会有所不同。房地产市场并不容易受到大量低信用评分抵押贷款人违约的影响，而是容易受到大量富裕中产阶级突然发现自己财务捉襟见肘，处于他们负担不起的阶梯上，并坐在负资产上泡沫破裂时。</blockquote></p><p> In the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.</p><p><blockquote>在英国，我们生活在负资产中。在美国，你走开。不管怎样，这些消费者消费更少。</blockquote></p><p> The structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…</p><p><blockquote>市场的结构也发生了变化。银行不再放贷了。他们将风险转移到了投资领域。就美国抵押贷款而言——通过抵押贷款支持债券回购计划返还给政府，并返还给现在融资、发放和服务抵押贷款的非银行金融机构……</blockquote></p><p> <b>This is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.</b>Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…</p><p><blockquote><b>这将是2007-2031年全球金融危机下一阶段的真正大问题。</b>实物资产！聪明的资金一直在买入实物资产，因为它们与日益腐败的金融资产行业无关，但现实是，来自房地产、私募股权、担保贷款、飞机、航运等领域的实物资产，现在都变得越来越泡沫由于所有与金融资产相关的通货膨胀现在蔓延到实体经济……</blockquote></p><p> <b>Financial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….</b></p><p><blockquote><b>金融资产通胀已经感染了实体经济。</b></blockquote></p><p> Time to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…</p><p><blockquote>是时候重新思考了……央行里所有这些可敬的男男女女一定害怕凯撒的鬼魂会回来困扰他们在2010年开始的货币实验，结果却出了如此严重的问题……</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/inflation-next-stage-global-financial-crisis-2007-2031","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1122873304","content_text":"“The evil that men do lives after them; the good is oft interred with their bones; so be it with Caesar.”\nWhat Inflation? “Oh, that’s nothing to worry about, the central banks have no choice but to keep juicing markets”… The market is so focused on the short-term and ignoring the consequences of the last 10 years of QE, monetary experimentation and easy rates, that its blundering into the next crisis. Inflation matters, and has jumped from financial assets into the real economy.\nI should warn readers this morning’s porridge is going to be yet another of my irregular notes on how the Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) which began in 2007 is still with us.. We’re just moving on to a new stage… Enjoy Chapter 384 of The Fall of Money – The GFC: 2007-2031.\nThis morning – What inflation?\nHuh? Last week the market convinced itself inflation apparentlywasn’t an issue. Yield curves flattened, bonds tightened, and even though stocks were anticipating the best-ever-earnings-season, there was absolutely nothing to worry about in terms of rising prices… Apparently…\nApparentlyand Absolutely are two very dangerous words in finance… They raise the likelihood you’ve got it completely wrong, ie: Apparently you couldn’t lose, but you did… Returns were Absolutelyguaranteed.. till the company went burst.\nAs we’ve learn’t this morning UK Inflation has risen to 2.5% – raising the prospect of a letter from the Bank explaining why. The headline US CPI data yesterday was even stronger – 5.4% yoy, and 0.9% over the last month! That’s not quite Zimbabwe but… you get the drift… When it happens in Europe… well the Germans are going to have a monumental hissy fit. (Top investment tip: stay long wheelbarrows.)\nInflation matters. Its critical to bonds and long-term returns. The market should look like it’s been slapped with the Wet-Halibut of Rampant Inflation, but, it doesn’t seem to have learnt the lesson. This morning, the financial-commentariat is awash with analysis of how the Fed, BoE and ECB will all hold off from any hint of “taper” response to inflation, in order to keep frothy markets from collapsing.\nFed-Watching used to be the delicate art of understanding the indecipherable nuances of Fed-Speak, forensically dissecting the commentary and numbers and drawing conclusions based on a clear understanding of what was left unsaid and the Fed’s mandate.\nNot today.\nFed watching today is about understanding how Jerome Powell and his merry gang are now hamstrung and tripping over themselves about not spooking markets over rate rises, taper-talk or doing anything that might unwind what they’ve being doing the last 12 years – frothing markets with unlimited QE, inappropriate rates, regulation and spin.\nThe brutal reality is the Central Bankers, who are all honourable men and women, understand the levers they pull no longer function as they once did. Why? Well, these honourable men and women have broken the system as a consequence of their actions. Oops. Now they have no choice but to follow.. which means trouble ahead until the global financial system can be resolved.\nThe start reality is Central Banks have no answer to inflation except to hope and carry on. They are caught between the Scylla of Inflation and the Charybdis of a market collapse. Eek! Which is why so many analysts are confident the markets will win out and keep going higher – because central banks have little choice but to go with it and keep up the stimulus.\nMost of the market is fixated on what the S&P does this afternoon, what new high the NASDAQ will make this month, or where Amazon is going to top this quarter. They have the vision of a blind man when it comes to anything much beyond the end of their one-year time horizon. Even the bond market seems blind.\nThe reality is investment should be about the long term. If you ignore the future in favour of short-term gains its makes it very easy to dismiss the evidence… that inflation is actually a very, very real issue..\nLots of smart non-financial assets funds do understand that, and see just how horribly distorted markets have become. That’s why they are so keen to diversify out of corrupted financial assets and into real assets – the hot part of the market (and what I’ve been doing in Alternative Assets for the last 12 years.)\nGoing back to inflation, the outlook is complex – another reason such a large part of the financial blogosphere is ignoring it. For instance; it’s possible to argue the rise in commodity prices is a factor of hoarding; manufacturers anticipating a surge Covid recovery and preparing for massive post-pandemic demand. The spikes in commodities from Copper to Lumber are now in reverse – supporting the market’s contention the inflation number is something of an overshoot.\nOil is an outlier.OPEC is a monopoly price setter, but is going through yet another of its periodic organisational crisis resulting in a spike that’s proving difficult to hedge. Owning oil is not a pleasant outcome for anyone – as we saw last year when traders found themselves owning negative priced oil when storage was unavailable.\nSome of the important underlying trends in the economy – like used cars, where prices are rising. It hints that its details of specific inflation factors in each price that are important. Cars are a good example – we’re all aware of the global shortage of chips enabling car makers to cut production and create scarcity, pushing up new car prices, dragging second hand values higher as consumers seek alternatives.  On the other hand – new car prices have been rising for years, with higher costs “justified” by the increasing amount of tech junk put into cars.. As the EU announces it will outlaw new ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicles by 2040, I wonder if we are going to see a new counter-trend develop.\nTo explain, consider the Land Rover:\n\nA 10 year-old low milage, full service history, Range Rover in immaculate condition may be worth £16k. A 20 year battered Defender with zero documents is worth £32k! But you can fix it with Gaffa Tape, WD40 and a hammer. (If it moves and shouldn’t: Gaffa tape it. If it still moves; more Gaffa tape. If it doesn’t move: WD40 and persuade it with a hammer.)\n\nHowever, inflation complacency may be the least of Central Bank worries. You may have spotted an increasing number of breathless articles from around the globe on House Price Inflation.\nEverywhere on the planet the affluent classes – those with savings, who’ve done well from lockdown, and already on the property ladder – have been driving an uptick in property. Its debt fuelled and an illiquid market – no one sells till they see what they want to buy, and the ladder is actually a pyramid, with fewer assets on each successively higher rung.\nThe result is record home prices nearly everywhere. This week Powell and US Treasury Sec Janet Yellen are going to chat about it at the Financial Stability Oversight Council – a body setup post Global Financial Crisis (“GFC”) in 2010 to identify excessive risks to the US Financial System. About time.. Housing is more frothy than 2007 according to the Case-Shiller US property value index. (Incidentally… so is just about any other market…but, I;ve said that many times before..)\nRightly, Janet and Jerome are concerned a second housing bubble bursting could shake the foundations of finance… again. However, this time will be different. The housing market is not vulnerable to a massive number of low-credit-score mortgagees defaulting, but to a large number of affluent middle classes suddenly finding themselves financial stretched, on a rung of the ladder they can’t afford, and sitting on negative equity when the bubble bursts.\nIn the UK, we live with negative equity. In the US, you walk away. Whatever, these consumers consume less.\nThe structure of the market has also changed. Banks don’t lend anymore. They broke their risks off to the investment sector. In the case of US mortgages – back to government through the Mortgage Backed Bond buyback schemes, and to the non-bank financial institutions than now finance, originate and service mortgages…\nThis is going to be the really big problem of the next stage of the Global Financial Crisis 2007-2031.Real Assets! Smart money has been loading up on real assets on the basis they are decorrelated from the increasingly corrupted financial asset sector, but they reality is real assets from property, private equity, secured lending, aircraft, shipping, you-name-it, is now getting just as frothy as a result of all that inflation tied up in financial assets now spilling into the real economy…\nFinancial Asset Inflation has infected the real economy….\nTime to think again… All these honourable men and women in Central Banks must dread Caesar’s ghost coming back to haunt the monetary experiment they started in 2010 going so badly wrong…","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1295,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":141071913,"gmtCreate":1625828804732,"gmtModify":1633936934707,"author":{"id":"4087529024557940","authorId":"4087529024557940","name":"HwaHwa","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4087529024557940","idStr":"4087529024557940"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Hmmm","listText":"Hmmm","text":"Hmmm","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/141071913","repostId":"1149376196","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":639,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}