YKYANG的个人主页 - 老虎社区

YKYANG

暂无个人介绍

IP属地：未知

1关注

4粉丝

0主题

0勋章

2021-11-22

Ok

@3Fs:What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model

2021-11-22

Like ols

Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>本周投资者关注百思买、Zoom、拼多多、小鹏、小米、美团等股票</blockquote>

2021-09-12

Like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-09-07

Likely

Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote>

2021-09-05

Like

Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>

2021-09-01

Going up again

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-29

Bitcoin go!

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-28

Like pls

Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街的犯罪与惩罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>

2021-08-28

BTC go

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-27

Well done

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-24

Like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-22

Good

Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>

2021-08-18

Up

Wish Stock Holds Support, Looks Set To Bounce Higher<blockquote>Wish 股票获得支撑，看起来将反弹走高</blockquote>

2021-08-14

All staged

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-10

Pls like

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-08

Like pls

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-04

Good

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-01

Will up again?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-07-31

Like pls

BofA Says Interest Rates Are at 5,000-Year Low<blockquote>美国银行称利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点</blockquote>

2021-07-30

Pls like

抱歉，原内容已删除

去老虎APP查看更多动态

{"i18n":{"language":"zh_CN"},"userPageInfo":{"id":"4088052587339740","uuid":"4088052587339740","gmtCreate":1624955830764,"gmtModify":1624955830764,"name":"YKYANG","pinyin":"ykyang","introduction":"","introductionEn":null,"signature":"","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","hat":null,"hatId":null,"hatName":null,"vip":1,"status":2,"fanSize":4,"headSize":1,"tweetSize":34,"questionSize":0,"limitLevel":999,"accountStatus":4,"level":{"id":1,"name":"萌萌虎","nameTw":"萌萌虎","represent":"呱呱坠地","factor":"评论帖子3次或发布1条主帖（非转发）","iconColor":"3C9E83","bgColor":"A2F1D9"},"themeCounts":0,"badgeCounts":0,"badges":[],"moderator":false,"superModerator":false,"manageSymbols":null,"badgeLevel":null,"boolIsFan":false,"boolIsHead":false,"favoriteSize":0,"symbols":null,"coverImage":null,"realNameVerified":null,"userBadges":[{"badgeId":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561-3","templateUuid":"e50ce593bb40487ebfb542ca54f6a561","name":"偶像虎友","description":"加入老虎社区1500天","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8b40ae7da5bf081a1c84df14bf9e6367","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f160eceddd7c284a8e1136557615cfad","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/11792805c468334a9b31c39f95a41c6a","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2026.04.22","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1001,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0},{"badgeId":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a-1","templateUuid":"518b5610c3e8410da5cfad115e4b0f5a","name":"实盘交易者","description":"完成一笔实盘交易","bigImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e08a1cc2087a1de93402c2c290fa65b","smallImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4504a6397ce1137932d56e5f4ce27166","grayImgUrl":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4b22c79415b4cd6e3d8ebc4a0fa32604","redirectLinkEnabled":0,"redirectLinkType":null,"redirectLink":null,"redirectLinkValidityFrom":null,"redirectLinkValidityTo":null,"hasAllocated":1,"isWearing":0,"stamp":null,"stampPosition":0,"hasStamp":0,"allocationCount":1,"allocatedDate":"2021.12.21","exceedPercentage":null,"individualDisplayEnabled":0,"backgroundColor":null,"fontColor":null,"individualDisplaySort":0,"categoryType":1100,"isScarce":0,"effectConfig":null,"effectEnabled":0,"plateImgUrl":null,"plateColors":null,"validityTo":null,"validityToTimestamp":null,"wearingSort":0}],"userBadgeCount":2,"currentWearingBadge":null,"individualDisplayBadges":null,"crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"location":"未知","starInvestorFollowerNum":0,"starInvestorFlag":false,"starInvestorOrderShareNum":0,"subscribeStarInvestorNum":0,"ror":null,"winRationPercentage":null,"showRor":false,"investmentPhilosophy":null,"starInvestorSubscribeFlag":false},"baikeInfo":{},"tab":"post","tweets":[{"id":872772875,"gmtCreate":1637582402845,"gmtModify":1637582402953,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Ok","listText":"Ok","text":"Ok","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872772875","repostId":"876821939","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":876821939,"gmtCreate":1637293434176,"gmtModify":1637321172562,"author":{"id":"3556134694513016","authorId":"3556134694513016","name":"3Fs","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/26cf959de8173b4a8aaee5e8568a8eff","crmLevel":13,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3556134694513016","idStr":"3556134694513016"},"themes":[],"title":"What is Baba's Intrinsic Value - With Valuation Model","htmlText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","listText":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">$Alibaba(09988)$</a> <a target=\"_blank\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">$Alibaba(BABA)$</a> and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","text":"Following my previous post which talked about the quick analysis on $Alibaba(09988)$ $Alibaba(BABA)$ and JD after both announced their earnings last night, I will go a little more in depth about each company’s valuation and see how much should we change with our valuation model.We will start first with Baba, and then I’ll do another one in the next post with JD.The goal here is to look at it objectively (rather than from a biased point of view because of vested position), so I’ll flex my objective thoughts and if you agree or disagree you are more than welcome to let me know your thoughts in the comment sections below (though please provide your reasoning so we can have a meanin","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2e32123f3fe711a94c20cea76325e7f4"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97bee6f41d4ceef1da78691a616a3869"},{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2d8b631d49bab6ba69b3aedbd5545335"}],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":2,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/876821939","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":4,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2640,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872776748,"gmtCreate":1637582360783,"gmtModify":1637582360783,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like ols","listText":"Like ols","text":"Like ols","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872776748","repostId":"1153786917","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1153786917","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637534687,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1153786917?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-22 06:44","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>本周投资者关注百思买、Zoom、拼多多、小鹏、小米、美团等股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1153786917","media":"Barrons","summary":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week","content":"<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including&nbsp;Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and&nbsp;Gap.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季的尾声将在下周带来主要零售商的更多业绩，就在购物者为黑色星期五做准备之际。本周二，投资者将从一些零售业巨头那里获得季度业绩，包括百思买、伯灵顿商店、迪克体育用品、美元树和盖普。</blockquote></p><p> Friday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.</p><p><blockquote>周五将是一年中最繁忙的购物日之一，也是假日购物季的传统开始。全国零售联合会估计，今年11月和12月，美国消费者将花费创纪录的8510亿美元，比去年增长9.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Non-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include&nbsp;Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and&nbsp;VMware&nbsp;on Tuesday, Deere&nbsp;on Wednesday&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下周财报日历上的非零售亮点包括周一的Zoom Video通信、周二的小鹏汽车、小米公司、欧特克、戴尔科技和 VMware、周三的Deere以及周五的拼多多、美团和RLX科技。</blockquote></p><p> The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.</p><p><blockquote>全国房地产经纪人协会周一报告了10月份的现房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年销量为 619 万套，比 9 月份减少 10 万套。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,IHS Markit&nbsp;releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.</p><p><blockquote>本周二，IHS Markit 将发布 11 月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业 PMI 预计为 59.5，服务业 PMI 预计为 59。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.</p><p><blockquote>周三，联邦公开市场委员会发布了 11 月初货币政策会议纪要。美国人口普查局还发布了10月份耐用品报告，而美国经济分析局则报告了10月份的个人收入和支出。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和固定收益市场将于周四因感恩节休市。周五，纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所下午1点结束交易，而债券市场下午2点收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Agilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>安捷伦科技、是德科技和Zoom Video通信发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告了10月份的现房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年销量为 619 万套，比 9 月份减少 10 万套。去年 10 月，成屋销售量达到金融危机后的峰值 673 万套，今年大部分时间都在下降，部分原因是供应限制，尤其是房地产市场的低价端。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices、Autodesk、Best Buy、Burlington Stores、Dell Technologies、Dick's Sporting Goods、Dollar Tree、Gap、HPInc、JMSmucker、Jacobs Engineering Group、Medtronic 和 VMware 报告收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b> both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit 发布</b>11 月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业 PMI 预计为 59.5，服务业 PMI 预计为 59。这两个数字都略高于10月份的数据。这两个指数都偏离了今年早些时候的峰值，但高于一年前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>其对第三季度国内生产总值的第二次估计。经济学家预测年增长率为 2.2%，高于东亚银行 10 月底 2% 的初步估计。</blockquote></p><p> Deere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere公布 2021 年第四季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b> Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会发布 11 月初货币政策会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布10月份耐用品报告。经济学家预测，耐用品制成品新订单环比增长 0.2%，达到 2620 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长 0.5%，与 9 月份的涨幅持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>10月份个人收入和支出。普遍的看涨期权是，继 9 月份下降 1% 之后，收入每月增长 0.4%。个人支出预计将环比增长 1%，增幅快于 9 月份 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. bourses</b> and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股市</b>固定收益市场因感恩节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It’s Black Friday</b>, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p><p><blockquote><b>今天是黑色星期五</b>这是一年中最繁忙的购物日之一，也是假日购物季的传统开始。全国零售联合会估计，今年11月和12月，美国消费者将花费创纪录的8510亿美元，比去年增长9.5%。美国交易所在感恩节后的第二天缩短了交易时段。纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所下午1点结束交易，债券市场下午2点收盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1601382232898","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Best Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>本周投资者关注百思买、Zoom、拼多多、小鹏、小米、美团等股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBest Buy, Zoom, Pinduoduo, Xpeng,Xiaomi,Meituan and Other Stocks for Investors to Watch This Week<blockquote>本周投资者关注百思买、Zoom、拼多多、小鹏、小米、美团等股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Barrons</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-22 06:44</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including&nbsp;Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and&nbsp;Gap.</p><p><blockquote>第三季度财报季的尾声将在下周带来主要零售商的更多业绩，就在购物者为黑色星期五做准备之际。本周二，投资者将从一些零售业巨头那里获得季度业绩，包括百思买、伯灵顿商店、迪克体育用品、美元树和盖普。</blockquote></p><p> Friday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.</p><p><blockquote>周五将是一年中最繁忙的购物日之一，也是假日购物季的传统开始。全国零售联合会估计，今年11月和12月，美国消费者将花费创纪录的8510亿美元，比去年增长9.5%。</blockquote></p><p> Non-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include&nbsp;Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and&nbsp;VMware&nbsp;on Tuesday, Deere&nbsp;on Wednesday&nbsp;and&nbsp;Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology&nbsp;on Friday.</p><p><blockquote>下周财报日历上的非零售亮点包括周一的Zoom Video通信、周二的小鹏汽车、小米公司、欧特克、戴尔科技和 VMware、周三的Deere以及周五的拼多多、美团和RLX科技。</blockquote></p><p> The National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.</p><p><blockquote>全国房地产经纪人协会周一报告了10月份的现房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年销量为 619 万套，比 9 月份减少 10 万套。</blockquote></p><p> On Tuesday,IHS Markit&nbsp;releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.</p><p><blockquote>本周二，IHS Markit 将发布 11 月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业 PMI 预计为 59.5，服务业 PMI 预计为 59。</blockquote></p><p> On Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.</p><p><blockquote>周三，联邦公开市场委员会发布了 11 月初货币政策会议纪要。美国人口普查局还发布了10月份耐用品报告，而美国经济分析局则报告了10月份的个人收入和支出。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p><p><blockquote>美国股市和固定收益市场将于周四因感恩节休市。周五，纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所下午1点结束交易，而债券市场下午2点收盘。</blockquote></p><p> Agilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.</p><p><blockquote>安捷伦科技、是德科技和Zoom Video通信发布季度业绩。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The National Association</b> of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.</p><p><blockquote><b>全国协会</b>房地产经纪人报告了10月份的现房销售情况。普遍估计，经季节性调整后的年销量为 619 万套，比 9 月份减少 10 万套。去年 10 月，成屋销售量达到金融危机后的峰值 673 万套，今年大部分时间都在下降，部分原因是供应限制，尤其是房地产市场的低价端。</blockquote></p><p> Analog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.</p><p><blockquote>Analog Devices、Autodesk、Best Buy、Burlington Stores、Dell Technologies、Dick's Sporting Goods、Dollar Tree、Gap、HPInc、JMSmucker、Jacobs Engineering Group、Medtronic 和 VMware 报告收益。</blockquote></p><p> <b>IHS Markit releases</b> both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.</p><p><blockquote><b>IHS Markit 发布</b>11 月份制造业和服务业采购经理人指数。制造业 PMI 预计为 59.5，服务业 PMI 预计为 59。这两个数字都略高于10月份的数据。这两个指数都偏离了今年早些时候的峰值，但高于一年前的水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>其对第三季度国内生产总值的第二次估计。经济学家预测年增长率为 2.2%，高于东亚银行 10 月底 2% 的初步估计。</blockquote></p><p> Deere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.</p><p><blockquote>Deere公布 2021 年第四季度财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Federal Open Market</b> Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.</p><p><blockquote><b>联邦公开市场</b>委员会发布 11 月初货币政策会议纪要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Census Bureau</b> releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>人口普查局</b>发布10月份耐用品报告。经济学家预测，耐用品制成品新订单环比增长 0.2%，达到 2620 亿美元。不包括运输，新订单增长 0.5%，与 9 月份的涨幅持平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The BEA reports</b> personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.</p><p><blockquote><b>东亚银行报告</b>10月份个人收入和支出。普遍的看涨期权是，继 9 月份下降 1% 之后，收入每月增长 0.4%。个人支出预计将环比增长 1%，增幅快于 9 月份 0.6%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>U.S. bourses</b> and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.</p><p><blockquote><b>美国股市</b>固定收益市场因感恩节休市。</blockquote></p><p> <b>It’s Black Friday</b>, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.</p><p><blockquote><b>今天是黑色星期五</b>这是一年中最繁忙的购物日之一，也是假日购物季的传统开始。全国零售联合会估计，今年11月和12月，美国消费者将花费创纪录的8510亿美元，比去年增长9.5%。美国交易所在感恩节后的第二天缩短了交易时段。纳斯达克和纽约证券交易所下午1点结束交易，债券市场下午2点收盘。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3\">Barrons</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"DELL":"戴尔",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","ZM":"Zoom",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","BBY":"百思买","DE":"迪尔股份有限公司",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"source_url":"https://www.barrons.com/articles/best-buy-zoom-dell-deere-and-other-stocks-for-investors-to-watch-this-week-51637524800?mod=hp_LEAD_3","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1153786917","content_text":"The tail end of third-quarter earnings season will bring more results from major retailers next week, just as shoppers prepare for Black Friday. On Tuesday, investors will get quarterly results from some of retail’s biggest names, including Best Buy,Burlington Stores,Dick’s Sporting Goods,Dollar Tree,and Gap.\nFriday will bring one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kick off for holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year.\nNon-retail highlights on the earnings calendar next week include Zoom Video Communications on Monday,Xpeng,Xiaomi Corporation,Autodesk,Dell Technologies,and VMware on Tuesday, Deere on Wednesday and Pinduoduo,Meituan and RLX Technology on Friday.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October on Monday. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September.\nOn Tuesday,IHS Markit releases both the manufacturing and services purchasing managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the manufacturing PMI and 59 for the services PMI.\nOn Wednesday, the Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting. The U.S. Census Bureau also releases the durable-goods report for October, while the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis reports personal income and spending for October.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets will be closed on Thursday for Thanksgiving. On Friday, the Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., while the bond market closes at 2 p.m.\nAgilent Technologies,Keysight Technologies,and Zoom Video Communications release quarterly results.\nThe National Association of Realtors reports existing-home sales for October. The consensus estimate is for a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 6.19 million homes sold, 100,000 fewer than in September. Existing-home sales hit their post-financial-crisis peak at 6.73 million last October and have fallen for much of this year, partly due to supply constraints, especially at the lower-price end of the housing market.\nAnalog Devices,Autodesk, Best Buy, Burlington Stores, Dell Technologies, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Dollar Tree, Gap,HPInc.,J.M. Smucker, Jacobs Engineering Group,Medtronic,and VMware report earnings.\nIHS Markit releases both the Manufacturing and Services Purchasing Managers’ indexes for November. Expectations are for a 59.5 reading for the Manufacturing PMI and 59 for the Services PMI. Both figures are slightly more than the October data. Both indexes are off their peaks from earlier this year, but higher than their levels from a year ago.\nThe BEA reports its second estimate of third-quarter gross domestic product. Economists forecast a 2.2% annualized rate of growth, higher than the BEA’s preliminary estimate of 2% from late October.\nDeere reports fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results.\nThe Federal Open Market Committee releases minutes from its early-November monetary-policy meeting.\nThe Census Bureau releases the durable-goods report for October. Economists forecast a 0.2% month-over-month increase in new orders for manufactured durable goods, to $262 billion. Excluding transportation, new orders are seen rising 0.5%, matching the September gain.\nThe BEA reports personal income and spending for October. The consensus call is for a 0.4% monthly increase in income after a 1% decline in September. Personal spending is expected to rise 1%, month over month, a faster clip than September’s 0.6% gain.\nU.S. bourses and fixed-income markets are closed in observance of Thanksgiving.\nIt’s Black Friday, one of the busiest shopping days of the year and the traditional kickoff to the holiday shopping season. The National Retail Federation estimates that a record $851 billion will be spent by U.S. consumers this November and December, a 9.5% increase from last year. U.S. exchanges have a shortened trading session on the day after Thanksgiving. The Nasdaq and New York Stock Exchange end trading at 1 p.m., and the bond market closes at 2 p.m.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,"DE":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"DELL":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"ZM":0.9,"BBY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2487,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":881780714,"gmtCreate":1631405678538,"gmtModify":1631889153452,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881780714","repostId":"2166370118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880023554,"gmtCreate":1631002036278,"gmtModify":1631889153457,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Likely&nbsp;","listText":"Likely&nbsp;","text":"Likely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880023554","repostId":"1195362599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195362599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631001600,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195362599?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195362599","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)\n(Sept 7) Boeing fell over 2% in early trading Tuesday.\n\n\nIri","content":"<p><i><b>(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 9 月 7 日上午 10:43）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> (Sept 7)&nbsp;Boeing&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in early trading Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>（9月7日）波音公司周二早盘下跌逾2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce38a3693be0da78fc1d6a224db1c3b\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Irish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.</b>  LONDON—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">Ryanair Holdings PLC</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>&nbsp;Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱尔兰低成本巨头瑞安航空表示，飞机制造商不会为了赢得交易而降价。</b>伦敦—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">瑞安航空控股有限公司</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>Co.BA-1.20% 在美国以外最大的客户表示，由于定价纠纷，该公司将放弃与这家美国喷气式飞机制造商就 737 MAX 潜在新订单进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has pushed to catch up with rival&nbsp;Airbus SE&nbsp;on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle&nbsp;category. The 737 MAX competes&nbsp;with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在关键的单通道类别中远远落后，在航空公司和出租商的喷气式飞机订单方面一直在努力追赶竞争对手空中客车公司。737 MAX 在该市场上与空客的 A320 竞争，空客利用 MAX 近两年的停飞期提高了市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying&nbsp;75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空是一家总部位于都柏林的折扣航空公司，是欧洲客运量最大的航空公司，一直是 737 MAX 的大买家，去年购买了 75 架该飞机。尽管停飞，但这一命令被视为对飞机未来的信任投票。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Ryanair&nbsp;has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.</p><p><blockquote>最近，瑞安航空在过去 10 个月里一直在与波音公司就新订购 737 MAX 10 飞机进行谈判，这是波音公司最新也是最大的单通道主力机型。分析师和高管们都将这一订单视为波音公司在机型危机后能多快收回积压订单的另一个风向标。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair said Monday that those talks were now over.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空周一表示，这些谈判现已结束。</blockquote></p><p> “Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.</p><p><blockquote>“该航空公司表示：”上周，合作伙伴之间的定价差距显然无法缩小，因此，双方同意不再在这些谈判上浪费时间。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market,&nbsp;European intracontinental flying.</p><p><blockquote>随着航空旅行在疫情期间急剧下降后开始恢复，波音和空客正在竞相签约客户。瑞安航空预测其主要市场欧洲大陆内航班将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司表示，即使没有新的 MAX 10，其订单上仍有足够的飞机将其机队增加到 600 多架，并满足其到 2025 年的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> Such a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual&nbsp;for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays,&nbsp;manufacturing quality and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>这种公开结束谈判并不一定是最终协议的丧钟。航空公司客户在交货延迟、制造质量和定价等问题上公开哄骗波音和空客并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空以在航空业低迷时抢购大幅折扣飞机而闻名。瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔-奥利里（Michael O'Leary）坚持认为，只有在瑞安航空能够与制造商就价格达成合适的协议的情况下，他才会进行另一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies.&nbsp;The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.</p><p><blockquote>MAX 10 由波音公司于 2017 年推出，拥有更长的客舱和可选的额外油箱，可与空中客车公司的 A321neo 竞争，后者迄今为止一直主导着更大的窄体飞机市场。该飞机于今年 6 月进行了首次试飞，并将于 2023 年投入使用，但因 MAX 停飞而推迟。</blockquote></p><p> “We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥利里先生说：”我们对未能达成协议感到失望。“我们并不认同波音公司乐观的定价前景。”</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”</p><p><blockquote>波音公司发言人表示，瑞安航空是长期合作伙伴。“她说：”我们重视他们的业务，并致力于支持他们。“与此同时，我们将继续遵守纪律，做出对客户和公司有意义的决定”。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>自美国和欧洲取消 737 MAX 的停飞订单以来，这家美国飞机制造商收到了一系列订单。分析人士将此部分归因于前所有者遗弃的积压飞机。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large,&nbsp;200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,&nbsp;including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新可用数据，截至 7 月 31 日，波音公司已预订了 630 架飞机订单。其中包括与联合航空控股公司达成的200架飞机的大型交易，其中包括150架MAX 10机型。与此同时，空客不包括最近与达美航空达成的交易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>自今年年初以来，Linesand Jet2 已收到 167 架飞机的总订单。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，空客在 A320neo 和 MAX 之间的竞争中的市场份额已超过 60%，分析师和业内认为这是降低生产成本和为客户降价的关键门槛。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.</p><p><blockquote>与瑞安航空的谈判破裂之际，波音公司仍在继续解决其更大的 787 梦想客机的生产问题，这导致该公司自去年 10 月以来几乎停止了所有宽体飞机的交付。《华尔街日报》报道称，交付暂停可能至少会延长到 10 月下旬，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-一年的截止日期，允许客户更容易地退出他们的飞机购买协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.</p><p><blockquote>据波音公司称，截至 6 月底，约有 100 架已完成的 787 飞机正在等待交付，库存价值超过 250 亿美元。在联邦航空管理局开始评估飞机生产中的制造缺陷后，飞机最初停止了交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 9 月 7 日上午 10:43）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> (Sept 7)&nbsp;Boeing&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in early trading Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>（9月7日）波音公司周二早盘下跌逾2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce38a3693be0da78fc1d6a224db1c3b\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Irish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.</b>  LONDON—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">Ryanair Holdings PLC</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>&nbsp;Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱尔兰低成本巨头瑞安航空表示，飞机制造商不会为了赢得交易而降价。</b>伦敦—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">瑞安航空控股有限公司</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>Co.BA-1.20% 在美国以外最大的客户表示，由于定价纠纷，该公司将放弃与这家美国喷气式飞机制造商就 737 MAX 潜在新订单进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has pushed to catch up with rival&nbsp;Airbus SE&nbsp;on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle&nbsp;category. The 737 MAX competes&nbsp;with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在关键的单通道类别中远远落后，在航空公司和出租商的喷气式飞机订单方面一直在努力追赶竞争对手空中客车公司。737 MAX 在该市场上与空客的 A320 竞争，空客利用 MAX 近两年的停飞期提高了市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying&nbsp;75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空是一家总部位于都柏林的折扣航空公司，是欧洲客运量最大的航空公司，一直是 737 MAX 的大买家，去年购买了 75 架该飞机。尽管停飞，但这一命令被视为对飞机未来的信任投票。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Ryanair&nbsp;has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.</p><p><blockquote>最近，瑞安航空在过去 10 个月里一直在与波音公司就新订购 737 MAX 10 飞机进行谈判，这是波音公司最新也是最大的单通道主力机型。分析师和高管们都将这一订单视为波音公司在机型危机后能多快收回积压订单的另一个风向标。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair said Monday that those talks were now over.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空周一表示，这些谈判现已结束。</blockquote></p><p> “Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.</p><p><blockquote>“该航空公司表示：”上周，合作伙伴之间的定价差距显然无法缩小，因此，双方同意不再在这些谈判上浪费时间。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market,&nbsp;European intracontinental flying.</p><p><blockquote>随着航空旅行在疫情期间急剧下降后开始恢复，波音和空客正在竞相签约客户。瑞安航空预测其主要市场欧洲大陆内航班将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司表示，即使没有新的 MAX 10，其订单上仍有足够的飞机将其机队增加到 600 多架，并满足其到 2025 年的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> Such a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual&nbsp;for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays,&nbsp;manufacturing quality and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>这种公开结束谈判并不一定是最终协议的丧钟。航空公司客户在交货延迟、制造质量和定价等问题上公开哄骗波音和空客并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空以在航空业低迷时抢购大幅折扣飞机而闻名。瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔-奥利里（Michael O'Leary）坚持认为，只有在瑞安航空能够与制造商就价格达成合适的协议的情况下，他才会进行另一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies.&nbsp;The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.</p><p><blockquote>MAX 10 由波音公司于 2017 年推出，拥有更长的客舱和可选的额外油箱，可与空中客车公司的 A321neo 竞争，后者迄今为止一直主导着更大的窄体飞机市场。该飞机于今年 6 月进行了首次试飞，并将于 2023 年投入使用，但因 MAX 停飞而推迟。</blockquote></p><p> “We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥利里先生说：”我们对未能达成协议感到失望。“我们并不认同波音公司乐观的定价前景。”</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”</p><p><blockquote>波音公司发言人表示，瑞安航空是长期合作伙伴。“她说：”我们重视他们的业务，并致力于支持他们。“与此同时，我们将继续遵守纪律，做出对客户和公司有意义的决定”。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>自美国和欧洲取消 737 MAX 的停飞订单以来，这家美国飞机制造商收到了一系列订单。分析人士将此部分归因于前所有者遗弃的积压飞机。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large,&nbsp;200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,&nbsp;including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新可用数据，截至 7 月 31 日，波音公司已预订了 630 架飞机订单。其中包括与联合航空控股公司达成的200架飞机的大型交易，其中包括150架MAX 10机型。与此同时，空客不包括最近与达美航空达成的交易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>自今年年初以来，Linesand Jet2 已收到 167 架飞机的总订单。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，空客在 A320neo 和 MAX 之间的竞争中的市场份额已超过 60%，分析师和业内认为这是降低生产成本和为客户降价的关键门槛。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.</p><p><blockquote>与瑞安航空的谈判破裂之际，波音公司仍在继续解决其更大的 787 梦想客机的生产问题，这导致该公司自去年 10 月以来几乎停止了所有宽体飞机的交付。《华尔街日报》报道称，交付暂停可能至少会延长到 10 月下旬，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-一年的截止日期，允许客户更容易地退出他们的飞机购买协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.</p><p><blockquote>据波音公司称，截至 6 月底，约有 100 架已完成的 787 飞机正在等待交付，库存价值超过 250 亿美元。在联邦航空管理局开始评估飞机生产中的制造缺陷后，飞机最初停止了交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-boeing-customer-says-it-is-walking-away-from-new-max-order-11630933735?mod=business_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","BA":"波音","RYAAY":"Ryanair Holdings plc"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-boeing-customer-says-it-is-walking-away-from-new-max-order-11630933735?mod=business_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195362599","content_text":"(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)\n(Sept 7) Boeing fell over 2% in early trading Tuesday.\n\n\nIrish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.\n\nLONDON—Ryanair Holdings PLC, Boeing Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.\nBoeing has pushed to catch up with rival Airbus SE on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle category. The 737 MAX competes with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.\nRyanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying 75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.\nMore recently, Ryanair has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.\nRyanair said Monday that those talks were now over.\n“Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.\nBoeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market, European intracontinental flying.\nThe airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.\nSuch a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays, manufacturing quality and pricing.\nRyanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.\nThe MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies. The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.\n“We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”\nA Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”\nThe U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.\nBoeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large, 200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc., including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta Air Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.\nDespite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.\nThe collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the one-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.\nAbout 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGD":0.9,"RYAAY":0.9,"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814582112,"gmtCreate":1630844855636,"gmtModify":1631889153458,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814582112","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818776001,"gmtCreate":1630453162103,"gmtModify":1631889153463,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Going up again","listText":"Going up again","text":"Going up again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818776001","repostId":"2164869989","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2152,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813603943,"gmtCreate":1630194140382,"gmtModify":1704956793331,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bitcoin go!","listText":"Bitcoin go!","text":"Bitcoin go!","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813603943","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2402,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813130227,"gmtCreate":1630145815569,"gmtModify":1704956536952,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813130227","repostId":"1184130616","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184130616","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630111537,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184130616?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-28 08:45","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街的犯罪与惩罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184130616","media":"Benzinga","summary":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the head","content":"<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的知名企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯在身高6英尺4英寸的同龄人中脱颖而出……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街的犯罪与惩罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWall Street Crime And Punishment: Bernard Ebbers And WorldCom's Seriously Wrong Numbers<blockquote>华尔街的犯罪与惩罚：伯纳德·埃伯斯和世通的严重错误数字</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-28 08:45</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> Does crime pay? Among the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 ...</p><p><blockquote><div>犯罪有报酬吗？在20世纪90年代和21世纪初占据头条新闻的知名企业高管中，伯纳德·埃伯在身高6英尺4英寸的同龄人中脱颖而出……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"HRB":"H&R布洛克税务"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22680432/wall-street-crime-and-punishment-bernard-ebbers-and-worldcoms-seriously-wrong-numbers","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184130616","content_text":"Does crime pay?\nAmong the mightiest of the high-profile corporate executives that dominated the headlines in the 1990s and early 2000s,Bernard Ebbersphysically stood out from his peers — the 6-foot-4 head of WorldCom was dubbed the “telecom cowboy” thanks to his sartorial preference for jeans, cowboy boots and a 10-gallon hat.\nEbbers also stood out from his peers for tightly holding on to Luddite practices as the digital age dawned. He famously refused to communicate with his workforce via email. Even worse, he stood out thanks to a prickly personality that quickly seethed when confronted with unpleasant news. A 2002 profile in The Economist defined him as “parochial, stubborn, preoccupied with penny-pinching … a difficult man to work for.”\nBut ultimately, Ebbers stood out for being at the center of what was (at the time) the largest accounting fraud in U.S. history, which was followed by the harshest prison sentence ever imposed on a corporate executive for financial crimes.\nA Man In Search Of Himself: Bernard John Ebbers was born Aug. 27, 1941, in Edmonton, Alberta, the second of five children. His father John was a traveling salesman and his peripatetic profession brought the family down from Canada into California, where he jettisoned his sales work and became an auto mechanic. The family later relocated to Gallup, New Mexico, where Ebbers’ parents became teachers on the Navajo Nation Indian reservation.\nThe Ebbers clan was back in Canada when Ebbers was a teenager and Bernie (as he was commonly known) came into adulthood unable to determine a course for his life. He attended Canada’s University of Alberta and Michigan’s Calvin College before accepting a basketball scholarship to Mississippi College. But he was the victim of a robbery prior to his senior year that left him seriously injured and switched his attention from playing to coaching the junior varsity team.\nEbbers graduated in 1967 majoring in physical education and minoring in secondary education. He supported himself during his college years by taking on a variety of odd jobs including a bouncer and milk delivery driver. He married his college sweetheart,Linda Pigott,after graduating and landed work teaching science to middle-school students while coaching high school basketball.\nBut Ebbers didn’t stay very long in the school system. When his wife received a job offer as a teacher in another Mississippi town, the couple relocated and he found work managing a garment factory warehouse. By 1974, he tired of working for others and responded to a newspaper advertisement seeking a buyer for a motel in Columbia, Mississippi.\nEbbers’ approach to running a hospitality establishment sometimes bordered on the eccentric. He would distribute bathroom towels at the front desk and require guests to return them to avoid being charged for taking them. Nonetheless, he found a niche in hospitality management and by the early 1980s he owned and operated eight motels within Mississippi and Texas; he also picked up a car dealership that also proved profitable.\nCalling Out Around The World:Ebbers might have remained in the Mississippi hospitality industry had it not been for the 1982 breakup ofAT&T Inc.'s T 0.41%monopoly on the U.S. telephone system. This created a seismic shift in the telecommunications world by enabling other companies to begin reselling long-distance telephone services.\nIn 1983, Ebbers and three friends met at a diner in Hattiesburg, Mississippi, to consider the feasibility of pursuing this newly opened opportunity. Ebbers theorized that having control of his long-distance calling services could benefit his motel business. In the days before mobile phones, guests in lodging establishments in need of long-distance calling would either have to feed handfuls of quarters into payphones or make calls from their rooms, which usually came with extra fees.\nEbbers and his pals decided to get into the telecommunications business with Long Distance Discount Services, which they established in 1985 with headquarters in Jackson, Mississippi, with Ebbers as CEO.\nCarl J. Aycock,a Mississippi financial advisor who was among the early investors in LDDS, would later laugh at the unlikelihood of Ebbers running a telecom company.\n“The only experience Bernie had before operating a long-distance company was he used the phone,” Aycock quipped in a 1997 interview.\nMaybe Ebbers did not possess an encyclopedic knowledge of telecommunications technology, but the good fortune he enjoyed in the motel business transitioned to this unlikely setting. Within four years of its launch, LDDS was being publicly traded.\nWithin 10 years of its opening, LDDS took on an almost Pac Man-style persona of gobbling up telecom firms in sight of the company, acquiring more than 60 different telecommunications company. By 1995, the company renamed itself LDDS WorldCom.\nMany of the company’s acquisitions were on the small side, and the company was never considered a major player in the telecom industry until its $720 million acquisition of Advanced Telecommunications Corporation in 1992.\nThe unlikely acquisition came with Ebbers’ ability to outbid industry titans AT&T and Sprint Corporation,both considerably larger players in this field.\nThe one unfortunate development during this time was the end of Ebbers’ marriage in 1997. He remarried in 1999 to Kristie Webb.\nIn February 1998, Ebbers’ company launched its acquisition plans for CompuServe from H&R Block Inc.\nThis transaction was followed by an astonishing spin of assets: LDDS sold the CompuServe Information Service portion of its acquisition toAmerica Online,while retaining the CompuServe Network Services portion of the business. AOL simultaneously sold LDDS WorldCom its networking division, Advanced Network Services.\nIn September 1998, LDDS WorldCom sealed a $37 billion union with MCI Communications,which created the largest corporate merger in U.S. history. The combined entity became MCI WorldCom, and for Ebbers it seemed that the sky was the limit — except that Ebbers’ ability to soar in the corporate skies resulted in an Icarus-worthy predicament.\nA Little Out Of Touch:One year after the CompuServe and MCI deals, Ebbers’ company boasted an 80,000-person workforce, a market capitalization of roughly $185 billion and its shares were trading at a peak of nearly $62.\nAt the peak of the company’s success, Ebbers granted an interview to The New York Times aboard his 130-yacht, which he berthed in the resort town of Hilton Head, South Carolina. He claimed that the secret of his success was “not as complicated as people make it out to be,” adding that he surrounded himself with experts who advised him on which moves to make.\n“I’m not an engineer by training,” he said. “I’m not an accountant by training. I’m the coach. I’m not the point guard who shoots the ball.”\nBut as the company grew larger, Ebbers penny-pinching behavior during his early motel management days became more extreme. WorldCom executives would later complain that Ebbers stopped providing free coffee within their offices and directed security guards fill the water coolers with tap water.\nAnd for the head of a telecommunications company, Ebbers was curiously distrustful of cutting-edge tech developments. He refused to communicate via email and would not carry a pager or a cell phone. He would explain his actions internally by repeating “That’s the way we did it at LDDS,” and in a 1997 Business Week interview about this behavior he claimed that “when you come to the table with a (physical education) degree like I do, you don't know a lot about the technical stuff.”\nWhile Ebbers’ arms-length distance from personal technology could have been attributed to a zany quirk, there was another problem that couldn’t be happily shrugged away. As the company expanded, operational problems began to permeate the multiple divisions. Ebbers would become impatient or worse when confronted with problems, to the point that he would angrily demand that he only wanted to be addressed with good news.\nIn retrospect, Ebbers’ refusal to acknowledge that his company was growing too fast and too large proved to be a fatal flaw, especially when the corporate culture began to manufacture good news in lieu of reporting problems. As a result, Ebbers’ XL-sized business empire was sustained by taking on massive amounts of debt and highly improper accounting.\nDetour Off The Cliff:The first cracks in this corporate story began in October 1999 when MCI WorldCom — which had become the second-largest long-distance telephone company in the country — announced a $129 billion merger with Sprint, the third-largest telecom carrier. Within nine months of this announcement, the merger was canceled in the face of pressure from U.S. and European regulators who feared a telecom monopoly would be born from this union. MCI WorldCom walked away from the failure by renaming itself as WorldCom.\nWith the rise of the new millennium came the fall of the dot-com industry, and almost any company that had a tech-related aspect found itself taking a financial tumble. When Ebbers’ company tried to cut corners and save money, it turned into an act of self-immolation.\nWorldcom’s network systems engineering division exhausted its annual capital expenditures budget by November 2000, with a senior manager ordering a halt to processing payments for network systems vendors and suppliers until the beginning of 2001.\nThe company’s chief technical officer,Fred Briggs,then ordered all of the labor associated with the capital projects in the network systems division to be booked as an expense rather than a capital project — and his directive was shared with other divisions in the company.\nA WorldCom budget analyst named Kim Amighin the company’s Richardson, Texas, office recognized the legal ramifications of intentionally mischaracterizing capital expenses and lodged a protest against the order. The directive was canceled and so was Amigh — three months after his action, Amigh was abruptly laid off from the company.\nBut Vice President of Internal Audit Cynthia Cooper learned of Amigh’s findings and picked up his trail. Her department began combing through WorldCom’s accounts and found $2 billion that the company claimed in its public filings was spent on capital expenditures during the first three quarters of 2001 — except that the funds were never authorized for that purpose and were clearly operating costs moved into the capital expenditure accounting as a way to make WorldCom look more profitable.\nCooper could not find anyone in the WorldCom leadership ranks to explain the $2 billion discrepancy. Most executives said it was a “prepaid capacity,” a meaningless term which they couldn’t define when pressed by Cooper.\nAnd Cooper was not alone in her suspicions. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission could not fathom how WorldCom continued to claim robust profits during the dot-com period while its competitors were operating at a loss, and it sent forth a “Request for Information” to learn the secret of its success.\nAdding to this chaos were Ebbers’ personal financial woes, which became exacerbated during to dot-com crisis by margin calls on his WorldCom shares, which were tanking as the economy plummeted into a recession.\nTo alleviate his monetary pain, Ebbers borrowed $50 million from WorldCom in September 2000 — and then borrowed again and again. By April 2002, Ebbers was $400 million in debt to WorldCom and the board of directors demanded his resignation, which he provided.\nIn June 2002, WorldCom acknowledged its earnings reports contained $3.9 billion in accounting misstatements, with the figure later adjusted to $11 billion. In July 2002, the company declared bankruptcy and was delisted from public trading. Also during that month, Ebbers was called before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Financial Services to explain what happened. He pleaded the Fifth Amendment.\nRoad’s End:The efforts to bring Ebbers to trial got off to a weird start when the State of Oklahoma jumped the gun with a 15-count indictment, only to drop its charges in favor of federal prosecution.\nEbbers was indicted in May 2004 on seven counts of filing false statements with securities regulators plus one count each of conspiracy and securities fraud. Ebbers agreed to testify on his behalf, which many observers later considered to be a major mistake because he came across as evasive and unconvincing when insisting WorldCom’s downfall was solely the fault of his subordinates and that he was ignorant about how his company worked.\n“I know what I don’t know,” Ebbers said during his trial. “To this day, I don’t know technology, and I don’t know finance or accounting.”\nEbbers was found guilty on all counts and was sentenced to 25 years in prison, the longest sentence ever handed down in U.S. history for a financial fraud case against a corporate executive.\nHe remained free on bail while fighting to overturn the verdict, but the conviction was upheld in the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in July 2006. Two months later, he drove himself in his luxury Mercedes-Benz to a low-security Louisiana prison to begin his sentence. Two years later, his wife Kristie successfully filed for divorce.\nAfter 13 years behind bars, Ebbers was granted a compassionate release on Dec. 21, 2019, due to a deteriorating state of health that included macular degeneration that left him legally blind, anemia, a weakened heart condition and the beginnings of dementia. He returned to his home in Brookhaven, Mississippi, and passed away on Feb. 2, 2020.\nIn defining his rise to the top, Ebbers harkened back to his basketball days by insisting, “The coach's job is to get the best players and get them to play together.” But in explaining his fall from grace, Ebbers forgot that the core of coaching is accepting responsibility for the team’s performance and he blamed his “best players” for not being able to “play together” while absolving himself from their errors.\nSaid Ebbers when confronted with his ultimate failure as the corporate equivalent of a coach: “I didn't have anything to apologize for.”","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"HRB":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2282,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":813130332,"gmtCreate":1630145721926,"gmtModify":1704956536598,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"BTC go","listText":"BTC go","text":"BTC go","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/813130332","repostId":"2162733980","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2947,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":810780691,"gmtCreate":1630015888913,"gmtModify":1704954496783,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Well done","listText":"Well done","text":"Well done","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/810780691","repostId":"1186610229","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4071,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834973921,"gmtCreate":1629769181063,"gmtModify":1631889153475,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834973921","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832194875,"gmtCreate":1629597116497,"gmtModify":1631889153483,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832194875","repostId":"1151608193","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151608193","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629728324,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1151608193?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 22:18","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151608193","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correcti","content":"<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Buy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBuy the pullback in chip stocks — and focus on these 6 companies for the long haul<blockquote>买入芯片股的回调——长期关注这 6 家公司</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-23 22:18</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7b24e4a76a5d1cd0ff030cf1b0eeac0f\" tg-width=\"700\" tg-height=\"466\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>ISTOCKPHOTO</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.</p><p><blockquote>在股市的滚动调整中，芯片制造商受到的打击比大多数制造商都要大。</blockquote></p><p> The iShares Semiconductor ETF&nbsp;is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&amp;P 500,Nasdaq&nbsp;Composite&nbsp;and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.</p><p><blockquote>iShares 半导体 ETF 较近期高点下跌超过 6%，而标准普尔 500 指数、纳斯达克综合指数和道琼斯工业平均指数的跌幅为 2% 或更少。</blockquote></p><p> Does that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着芯片股票值得买入？或者，这个历史上具有周期性的行业是否故技重施，陷入持续下跌趋势，让你大吃一惊。</blockquote></p><p> A lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”</p><p><blockquote>很大程度上取决于您的时间表，但如果您喜欢持有股票多年，而不是租用几天，那么该集团值得购买。主要原因： “这次不一样”。</blockquote></p><p> Those are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.</p><p><blockquote>这些无疑是投资中最可怕的词语之一。但芯片行业已经发生了很大的变化，现在确实不同了——这表明它不太可能压垮你。</blockquote></p><p> You’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.</p><p><blockquote>如果你认为没有风险，那你就是个傻瓜。我会回顾一下这些。但首先，以下是该集团现在 “更安全 ”的三个主要原因--以及我在过去几天里与六位行业专家交谈过的六位行业专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.周期性的邪恶女巫死了</b></blockquote></p><p> “Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">First</a> PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.</p><p><blockquote>“Impax Asset Management 的投资组合经理 David Winborne 说：”受产品周期的驱动，芯片行业的需求总是时好时坏。“<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FBNC\">第一</a>电脑，然后是服务器，然后是电话。”但他表示，现在整个经济对芯片的需求已经扩大，因此长期增长故事更可预测。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>看看你周围。由于我们的生活和工作日益 “数字化 ”，终端市场需求从各个角度都更加多样化。把远程办公服务想象成<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">缩放</a>看好该集团的 Gabelli Funds 投资组合经理兼技术分析师 Hendi Susanto 指出，网上购物、云服务、电动汽车、5G 手机、智能工厂、大数据计算甚至洗衣机。</blockquote></p><p> “There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”</p><p><blockquote>“Motley Fool 芯片行业分析师 John Rotonti 说：”现代数字经济的任何方面都离不开半导体。“这意味着所有东西都有更多的筹码。长期需求是存在的”。</blockquote></p><p> He’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William&nbsp;Blair&nbsp;analyst Greg Scolaro.</p><p><blockquote>他没开玩笑。威廉·布莱尔分析师格雷格·斯科拉罗预测，到2030年，芯片行业的收入将从2020年的4650亿美元翻一番，达到1万亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> All of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> confirmed by a majority of large customers.”</p><p><blockquote>所有这些都意味着，你听到的大范围供应短缺 “可能要到明年年底的某个时候才能得到解决”。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>芯片行业分析师 Vivek Arya。“这不仅是我们的观点，而且<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>大多数大客户都证实了这一点。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. The players have consolidated</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2、玩家巩固</b></blockquote></p><p> All up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.</p><p><blockquote>在生产链的上下游，从设计到各类设备生产商再到制造，行业参与者已经整合成罗通蒂-评级 “赢得 ”的双头垄断或垄断。</blockquote></p><p> In chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems&nbsp;and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML&nbsp;in extreme ultraviolet lithography&nbsp;(EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor&nbsp;and Samsung Electronics.</p><p><blockquote>在芯片设计软件中，你有Cadence Design Systems和Synopsys。在生产设备方面，公司在极紫外光刻 (EUV) 等专业领域占据主导地位，例如 ASML。制造业由台积电和三星电子主导。</blockquote></p><p> These companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>这些公司通过在他们所做的事情上做到最好，赢得了他们的利基或双寡头地位。这使得投资者对它们感兴趣。Rotonti 表示，整合还意味着参与者在定价和产能方面的行为更加理性。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Profitability has improved</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3、盈利能力有所改善</b></blockquote></p><p> This more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.</p><p><blockquote>这种更加理性的行为，加上成本削减，意味着现在的盈利能力比历史上高得多。“温伯恩说：”在过去的几年里，芯片制造的经济性有了很大的改善。现金流或 EBITDA 利润率现在通常超过 30%，而十年前则在 20% 左右。</blockquote></p><p> This has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere &amp; Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”</p><p><blockquote>这对估值有影响。Villere &amp; Co. 的投资组合经理拉马尔·维莱尔 (Lamar Villere) 指出，尽管芯片股票的交易市盈率约为市盈率，但它们看起来很便宜，因为它们是更好的公司。“他们并没有以泡沫倍数进行交易”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The stocks to buy</b></p><p><blockquote><b>要买的股票</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.</p><p><blockquote>以下是我最近核实的芯片专家青睐的六个名字。</blockquote></p><p> <b>New management plays</b></p><p><blockquote><b>新管理层玩法</b></blockquote></p><p> Though Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm&nbsp;and ON Semiconductor.</p><p><blockquote>尽管 Thrivent 高级股票研究分析师彼得·卡拉泽里斯 (Peter Karazeris) 有理由对该集团持谨慎态度（见下文），但他特别指出了两家公司的业绩可能会因为新管理层而得到提振：高通和安森美半导体。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Both have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">ON Semiconductor</a> is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.</p><p><blockquote>两者都具有稳定的盈利能力。高通最近受到德克萨斯州恶劣天气等一次性问题的打击，导致生产中断，但该公司对5G手机趋势有很好的了解。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ON\">半导体</a>正在将手机以外的领域扩展到汽车、工业和物联网等新领域——联网设备领域。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A data center and gaming play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>数据中心和游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> Karazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.</p><p><blockquote>Karazeris 还特别提到了 Nvidia， 由于其卓越的设计能力， Nvidia 从数据中心和游戏设备芯片需求中获得了持续提振。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Design tool companies</b></p><p><blockquote><b>设计工具公司</b></blockquote></p><p> Speaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">Synopsys</a>.</p><p><blockquote>说到设计，当高通和英伟达等公司想要设计芯片时，他们会求助于Cadence Design Systems提供的设计工具和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SNPS\">概要</a>.</blockquote></p><p> Their software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.</p><p><blockquote>Motley Fool 的 Rotonti 解释说，他们基于软件的设计工具可以帮助芯片创新者为他们的芯片创建蓝图，他特别指出了这些名字。“他们不是世界上增长最快的公司，但他们的利润率很高”。他们也主宰了太空。</blockquote></p><p> <b>An EUV&nbsp;play</b></p><p><blockquote><b>EUV游戏</b></blockquote></p><p> To put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.</p><p><blockquote>为了在芯片生产的早期阶段将这些蓝图应用到硅上，台积电和三星等公司转向了ASML。它的机器使用微小的光脉冲将芯片设计模板印在硅片上，这一过程称为极紫外线光刻。“罗通蒂说：”其他人还没有想出怎么做。</blockquote></p><p> In other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，它在供应这样做的机器方面拥有垄断地位——这对于任何想要制造领先芯片的公司来说都是必要的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Here are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.</p><p><blockquote>以下是芯片行业投资者需要关注的一些主要风险。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Oversupply</b></p><p><blockquote><b>供过于求</b></blockquote></p><p> Chip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">China</a> wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.</p><p><blockquote>芯片生产已经政治化。美国希望在国内生产更多，这样它就不会受到中国供应链中断的影响。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAAS\">中国</a>Winborne 表示，希望到 2025 年生产其使用的芯片的 70%，高于目前的 5%。</blockquote></p><p> The upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.</p><p><blockquote>结果是，政府为促进制造业提供了大量支持，因此会有更多支持。风险是未来某个时候供应过剩。这也可能会推动芯片设备的采购，导致未来的平静，这可能会损害设备制造商的销售和利润率趋势。</blockquote></p><p> Next, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple&nbsp;and Ammazon.com&nbsp;are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，像Alphabet、苹果和亚马逊这样的大型科技公司都在做自己的芯片设计，这威胁到了做同样事情的专业芯片公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">Quantum</a> computing</b></p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/QTM\">量子的</a>计算机的</b></blockquote></p><p> Computers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”</p><p><blockquote>William Blair 的 Scolaro 指出，使用基于量子物理学的芯片设计而不是传统半导体架构的计算机具有卓越的性能。“虽然量子计算可能至少在未来五年内不会成为主流，但它有潜力改变从技术到医疗保健的一切。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>A disturbing signal</b></p><p><blockquote><b>干扰信号</b></blockquote></p><p> A blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.</p><p><blockquote>全球采购经理人 (PMI) 指数在 4 月份达到峰值，然后连续三个月放缓。与此同时，芯片销售持续增长。Thrivent 跟踪该指标的 Karazeris 指出，通常两者遵循相同的趋势。他将这种差异归因于库存积累，而库存积累不如真正的终端市场需求可持续。因此，他认为这种背离是芯片行业的看跌信号。</blockquote></p><p> Another cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory&nbsp;(DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.</p><p><blockquote>另一个警告信号来自动态随机存取存储器（DRAM）芯片定价的预测疲软。“卡拉泽里斯说：”这些通常是在周期的顶部而不是底部看到的东西。</blockquote></p><p> But it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.</p><p><blockquote>但也有可能全球采购经理人指数的放缓更多的是芯片短缺的反映，而不是短缺并非真实存在的迹象（只是库存积压）。“Leuthold 经济学家兼策略师吉姆-保尔森（Jim Paulsen）说：”这种分歧并不一定意味着芯片订单会翻盘消亡。这意味着芯片制造业必须迎头赶上。</blockquote></p><p> Ford,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.</p><p><blockquote>例如，福特刚刚宣布不得不减产是因为芯片短缺，而不是潜在需求不足。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">Ford</a> cars.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预测，由于高储蓄率、就业和收入反弹以及对大件商品被压抑的需求等因素，体面的经济增长是可持续的。如果他是对的，持续的经济实力将支撑对所有使用芯片的产品的需求，包括<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/F\">福特</a>汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"QCOM":"高通","SNPS":"新思科技","ASML":"阿斯麦","ON":"安森美半导体","CDNS":"铿腾电子","NVDA":"英伟达","GOOGL":"谷歌A","SSNLF":"三星电子","SOXX":"iShares费城交易所半导体ETF","GOOG":"谷歌","AMZN":"亚马逊","TSM":"台积电","AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/buy-the-pullback-in-chip-stocks-and-focus-on-these-6-companies-for-the-long-haul-11629468380?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151608193","content_text":"The iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs.\nISTOCKPHOTO\nIn the rolling correction that’s running through the stock market, chip makers have been hit harder than most.\nThe iShares Semiconductor ETF is down over 6% from recent highs, compared to declines of 2% or less for the S&P 500,Nasdaq Composite and the Dow Jones Industrial Average.\nDoes that make chip stocks a buy? Or is this historically cyclical sector up to its old tricks and headed into a sustained downtrend that will rip your face off.\nA lot depends on your timeline but if you like to own stocks for years rather than rent them for days, the group is a buy. The chief reason: “It’s different this time.”\nThose are admittedly among the scariest words in investing. But the chip sector has changed so much it really is different now – in ways that suggest it is less likely to crush you.\nYou’d be a fool to think there are no risks. I’ll go over those. But first, here are the three main reasons why the group is “safer” now – and six names favored by the half-dozen sector experts I’ve talked with over the past several days.\n1. The wicked witch of cyclicality is dead\n“Demand in the chip sector was always boom and bust, driven by product cycles,” says David Winborne, a portfolio manager at Impax Asset Management. “First PCs, then servers, then phones.” But now demand for chips has broadened across the economy so the secular growth story is more predictable, he says.\nJust look around you. Because of the increased “digitalization” of our lives and work, there’s greater diversity of end market demand from all angles. Think remote office services like Zoom, online shopping, cloud services, electric vehicles, 5G phones, smart factories, big data computing and even washing machines, points out Hendi Susanto, a portfolio manager and tech analyst at Gabelli Funds who is bullish on the group.\n“There is no aspect of the modern digital economy that can function without semiconductors,” says Motley Fool chip sector analyst John Rotonti. “That means more chips going into everything. The long-term demand is there.”\nHe’s not kidding. Chip sector revenue will double by 2030 to $1 trillion from $465 billion in 2020, predicts William Blair analyst Greg Scolaro.\nAll of this means the widespread supply shortages you’ve been hearing about “likely won’t be cured until sometime late next year,” says Bank of America chip sector analyst Vivek Arya. “That’s not just our view, but one confirmed by a majority of large customers.”\n2. The players have consolidated\nAll up and down the production chain, from design through the various types of equipment producers to manufacturing, industry players have consolidated down into what Rotonti calls “earned” duopolies or monopolies.\nIn chip design software, you have Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.In production equipment, companies dominate specialized niches like ASML in extreme ultraviolet lithography (EUV). Manufacturing is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung Electronics.\nThese companies earned their niche or duopoly status by being the best at what they do. This makes them interesting for investors. The consolidation also means players behave more rationally in terms of pricing and production capacity, says Rotonti.\n3. Profitability has improved\nThis more rational behavior, combined with cost cutting, means profitability is now much higher than it was historically. “The economics of chip making has improved massively over past few years,” says Winbourne. Cash flow or EBITDA margins are often now over 30% whereas a decade ago they were in the 20% range.\nThis has implications for valuation. Though chip stocks trade at about a market multiple, they appear cheap because they are better companies, points out Lamar Villere, portfolio manager with Villere & Co. “They are not trading at a frothy multiple.”\nThe stocks to buy\nHere are six names favored by chip experts I recently checked in with.\nNew management plays\nThough Peter Karazeris, a senior equity research analyst at Thrivent, has reasons to be cautious on the group (see below), he singles out two companies whose performance may get a boost because they are under new management: Qualcomm and ON Semiconductor.\nBoth have solid profitability. Qualcomm was recently hit by one-off issues like bad weather in Texas that disrupted production, but the company has good exposure to the 5G phone trend. ON Semiconductor is expanding beyond phones into new areas like autos, industrial and the Internet of Things connected-device space.\nA data center and gaming play\nKarazeris also singles out Nvidia,which gets a continuing boost from its exposure to data center and gaming device chip demand — because of its superior design prowess.\nDesign tool companies\nSpeaking of design, when companies like Qualcomm and NVIDIA want to design chips, they turn to the design tools supplied by Cadence Design Systems and Synopsys.\nTheir software-based design tools help chip innovators create the blueprint for their chips, explains Rotonti at Motley Fool, who singles out these names. “They are not the fastest growers in the world, but they have good profit margins.” They also dominate the space.\nAn EUV play\nTo put those blueprints onto silicon in the early stages of chip production, companies like Taiwan Semiconductor and Samsung turn to ASML. Its machines use tiny bursts of light to stencil chip designs onto silicon wafers, in a process called extreme ultraviolet lithography. “No one else has figured out how to do it,” says Rotonti.\nIn other words, it has a monopoly position in supplying machines that do this – which are necessary for any company that wants to make leading edge chips.\nRisks\nHere are some of the chief risks for chip sector investors to watch.\nOversupply\nChip production has become politicized. The U.S. wants more production at home so it is not vulnerable to disruptions in Chinese supply chains. China wants to make 70% of the chips it uses by 2025, up from 5% now, says Winborne.\nThe upshot here is that there’s lots of government support to boost manufacturing – so there will be much more of it. The risk is oversupply at some point in the future. This might also create a pull forward in chip equipment purchases — leading to a lull down the road which could hurt sales and margin trends at equipment makers.\nNext, big tech companies like Alphabet,Apple and Ammazon.com are all doing their own chip design, which threatens specialized chip companies that do the same thing.\nQuantum computing\nComputers using chip designs based on quantum physics instead of traditional semiconductor architectures have superior performance, points out Scolaro at William Blair. “While it probably won’t become mainstream for at least another five years, quantum computing has the potential to transform everything from technology to healthcare.”\nA disturbing signal\nA blend of global purchasing managers (PMI) indexes peaked in April and then decelerated for three months. Meanwhile chip sales growth continued. Normally the two follow the same trend, points out Karazeris, who tracks this indicator at Thrivent. He chalks the divergence up to inventory building which is less sustainable than true end-market demand. So, he takes the divergence as a bearish signal for the chip sector.\nAnother cautionary sign comes from the forecasted weakness in pricing for dynamic random-access memory (DRAM) chips. “These are typically things you see at tops of cycles not the bottoms,” says Karazeris.\nBut it’s also possible the slowdown in the global PMI is more a reflection of chip shortages than a sign that the shortages aren’t real (and are just inventory building). “The divergence doesn’t necessarily mean that chip orders are going to roll over and die. It means chip manufacturing has to catch up,” says Leuthold economist and strategist Jim Paulsen.\nFord,for example, just announced it had to curtail production because of chip shortages, not a shortfall in underlying demand.\nPaulsen predicts decent economic growth is sustainable because of factors like high savings rates, the rebound in employment and incomes as well as pent-up demand for big ticket items. If he’s right, the continued economic strength would support demand for all the products that use chips – including Ford cars.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ON":0.9,"ASML":0.9,"TSM":0.9,"SSNLF":0.9,"NVDA":0.9,"QCOM":0.9,"AAPL":0.9,"CDNS":0.9,"GOOGL":0.9,"SNPS":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"SOXX":0.9,"AMZN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":594,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833624814,"gmtCreate":1629241596538,"gmtModify":1631889153484,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Up","listText":"Up","text":"Up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833624814","repostId":"1198224425","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1198224425","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1629213077,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1198224425?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-17 23:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Wish Stock Holds Support, Looks Set To Bounce Higher<blockquote>Wish 股票获得支撑，看起来将反弹走高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1198224425","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"ContextLogic Inc. Inc was the third most mentioned stock in the r/WallStreetBets community on Monday","content":"<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">ContextLogic Inc.</a></b> <b>Inc</b>&nbsp;was the third most&nbsp;mentioned&nbsp;stock in the r/WallStreetBets community on Monday night followed by&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> </b><b>Holdings, Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">上下文逻辑公司。</a></b><b>公司</b>是周一晚上 r/WallStreetBets 社区中提及次数第三多的股票，其次是<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b><b>控股公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The stock is popular among retail traders due to its underlying&nbsp;statistics:</p><p><blockquote>由于其基本统计数据，该股在散户交易者中很受欢迎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Float</b>: ContextLogic has a relatively small float of 362.37 shares.</li>  <li><b>Ownership</b>: The stock has a bizarre ownership level with 93.66% of its float tied up in the hands of insiders and institutions. Institutions own 89.24% of its shares and 4.42% are held by insiders.</li>  <li><b>Short Interest</b>: As of July 30, 29.12 million shares, meaning 19.02% of ContextLogic’s float are held short. This number has increased substantially from the 20.98 million shares that were held short in June.</li> </ul> <b>The number of shares held short could have increased further after the e-commerce company gapped down about 25% after reporting a massive earning loss on Aug. 12.</b>&nbsp;The stock then&nbsp;bounced at a support&nbsp;level created in the pre-market on Aug. 13, but on Monday ContextLogic received a number of analyst downgrades and traded back down toward the level.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>浮动</b>: ContextLogic 的流通量相对较小，为 362.37 股。</li><li><b>所有权</b>：该股的所有权水平很奇怪，93.66%的流通股被内部人士和机构持有。机构持有其89.24%的股份，4.42%由内部人士持有。</li><li><b>空头利息</b>: 截至 7 月 30 日，有 2912 万股股票被做空，占 ContextLogic 流通股的 19.02%。这一数字较6月份持有的2098万股大幅增加。</li></ul><b>这家电子商务公司在 8 月 12 日报告巨额盈利亏损后，股价下跌约 25%，空头股票数量可能会进一步增加。</b>该股随后在 8 月 13 日盘前创建的支撑位反弹，但周一 ContextLogic 收到了多位分析师的下调评级，并回落至该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ContextLogic Chart:</b>&nbsp;ContextLogic has a newly created support level at $6.71. On Monday the stock traded down to test the level as support and it held. On Tuesday it tested the level again as support and bounced upwards from it.</p><p><blockquote><b>上下文逻辑图：</b>ContextLogic 新创建的支撑位为 6.71 美元。周一，该股下跌以测试支撑位，并保持不变。周二，它再次测试了该水平作为支撑位，并从该水平反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ContextLogic has a huge gap above between about $7.87 and $9.32. Gaps on charts fill about 90% of the time so it's likely the stock will trade up to fill the gap in the future.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ContextLogic 在 7.87 美元和 9.32 美元之间存在巨大差距。图表上的缺口填补了大约 90% 的时间，因此该股未来很可能会上涨以填补缺口。</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic is trading below both the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) with the eight-day EMA trending below the 21-day, both of which are bearish indicators. The stock is also trading below the 50-day simple moving average which indicates longer-term sentiment is currently bearish.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic 的交易价格均低于 8 日和 21 日指数移动平均线 (EMA)，其中 8 日 EMA 趋势低于 21 日指数移动平均线，这两个指标都是看跌指标。该股的交易价格也低于 50 天简单移动平均线，这表明长期情绪目前看跌。</blockquote></p><p> The relative strength index (RSI) on the stock is has been measuring in at about 28% since ContextLogic gapped down Aug. 13. When an RSI measures below 30% the stock is considered to be in oversold territory which is a buy signal for technical traders. It's likely ContextLogic’s RSI will correct back up above 30% in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>自 ContextLogic 8 月 13 日跳空以来，该股的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 一直约为 28%。当RSI低于30%时，股票被认为处于超卖区域，这是技术交易者的买入信号。ContextLogic 的 RSI 很可能在不久的将来回调至 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bulls want to see big bullish volume come in and drive ContextLogic back up toward a resistance level at $7.52. If it can regain the level as support the stock could move up higher toward the $10 level.</li>  <li>Bears want to see big bearish volume come in and drop ContextLogic’s stock down below support at $6.71. If ContextLogic loses the level as support it there is no further support below in the form of price history. $6 would be a lower psychological support level.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eadc82dbb6dc37e43c3702d625d8f21\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>多头希望看到大量看涨成交量到来，并推动 ContextLogic 回升至 7.52 美元的阻力位。如果它能够重新获得支撑位，该股可能会上涨至 10 美元水平。</li><li>空头希望看到大量的空头成交量进入，并将 ContextLogic 的股价跌破 6.71 美元的支撑位。如果ContextLogic失去了支持它的水平，那么下面就没有价格历史形式的进一步支持了。6美元将是一个较低的心理支持水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Wish Stock Holds Support, Looks Set To Bounce Higher<blockquote>Wish 股票获得支撑，看起来将反弹走高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWish Stock Holds Support, Looks Set To Bounce Higher<blockquote>Wish 股票获得支撑，看起来将反弹走高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-17 23:11</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">ContextLogic Inc.</a></b> <b>Inc</b>&nbsp;was the third most&nbsp;mentioned&nbsp;stock in the r/WallStreetBets community on Monday night followed by&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC Entertainment</a> </b><b>Holdings, Inc</b>.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WISH\">上下文逻辑公司。</a></b><b>公司</b>是周一晚上 r/WallStreetBets 社区中提及次数第三多的股票，其次是<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMC\">AMC院线</a></b><b>控股公司</b>.</blockquote></p><p> The stock is popular among retail traders due to its underlying&nbsp;statistics:</p><p><blockquote>由于其基本统计数据，该股在散户交易者中很受欢迎：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Float</b>: ContextLogic has a relatively small float of 362.37 shares.</li>  <li><b>Ownership</b>: The stock has a bizarre ownership level with 93.66% of its float tied up in the hands of insiders and institutions. Institutions own 89.24% of its shares and 4.42% are held by insiders.</li>  <li><b>Short Interest</b>: As of July 30, 29.12 million shares, meaning 19.02% of ContextLogic’s float are held short. This number has increased substantially from the 20.98 million shares that were held short in June.</li> </ul> <b>The number of shares held short could have increased further after the e-commerce company gapped down about 25% after reporting a massive earning loss on Aug. 12.</b>&nbsp;The stock then&nbsp;bounced at a support&nbsp;level created in the pre-market on Aug. 13, but on Monday ContextLogic received a number of analyst downgrades and traded back down toward the level.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>浮动</b>: ContextLogic 的流通量相对较小，为 362.37 股。</li><li><b>所有权</b>：该股的所有权水平很奇怪，93.66%的流通股被内部人士和机构持有。机构持有其89.24%的股份，4.42%由内部人士持有。</li><li><b>空头利息</b>: 截至 7 月 30 日，有 2912 万股股票被做空，占 ContextLogic 流通股的 19.02%。这一数字较6月份持有的2098万股大幅增加。</li></ul><b>这家电子商务公司在 8 月 12 日报告巨额盈利亏损后，股价下跌约 25%，空头股票数量可能会进一步增加。</b>该股随后在 8 月 13 日盘前创建的支撑位反弹，但周一 ContextLogic 收到了多位分析师的下调评级，并回落至该水平。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The ContextLogic Chart:</b>&nbsp;ContextLogic has a newly created support level at $6.71. On Monday the stock traded down to test the level as support and it held. On Tuesday it tested the level again as support and bounced upwards from it.</p><p><blockquote><b>上下文逻辑图：</b>ContextLogic 新创建的支撑位为 6.71 美元。周一，该股下跌以测试支撑位，并保持不变。周二，它再次测试了该水平作为支撑位，并从该水平反弹。</blockquote></p><p> <b>ContextLogic has a huge gap above between about $7.87 and $9.32. Gaps on charts fill about 90% of the time so it's likely the stock will trade up to fill the gap in the future.</b></p><p><blockquote><b>ContextLogic 在 7.87 美元和 9.32 美元之间存在巨大差距。图表上的缺口填补了大约 90% 的时间，因此该股未来很可能会上涨以填补缺口。</b></blockquote></p><p> ContextLogic is trading below both the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) with the eight-day EMA trending below the 21-day, both of which are bearish indicators. The stock is also trading below the 50-day simple moving average which indicates longer-term sentiment is currently bearish.</p><p><blockquote>ContextLogic 的交易价格均低于 8 日和 21 日指数移动平均线 (EMA)，其中 8 日 EMA 趋势低于 21 日指数移动平均线，这两个指标都是看跌指标。该股的交易价格也低于 50 天简单移动平均线，这表明长期情绪目前看跌。</blockquote></p><p> The relative strength index (RSI) on the stock is has been measuring in at about 28% since ContextLogic gapped down Aug. 13. When an RSI measures below 30% the stock is considered to be in oversold territory which is a buy signal for technical traders. It's likely ContextLogic’s RSI will correct back up above 30% in the near future.</p><p><blockquote>自 ContextLogic 8 月 13 日跳空以来，该股的相对强弱指数 (RSI) 一直约为 28%。当RSI低于30%时，股票被认为处于超卖区域，这是技术交易者的买入信号。ContextLogic 的 RSI 很可能在不久的将来回调至 30% 以上。</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Bulls want to see big bullish volume come in and drive ContextLogic back up toward a resistance level at $7.52. If it can regain the level as support the stock could move up higher toward the $10 level.</li>  <li>Bears want to see big bearish volume come in and drop ContextLogic’s stock down below support at $6.71. If ContextLogic loses the level as support it there is no further support below in the form of price history. $6 would be a lower psychological support level.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7eadc82dbb6dc37e43c3702d625d8f21\" tg-width=\"1366\" tg-height=\"768\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>多头希望看到大量看涨成交量到来，并推动 ContextLogic 回升至 7.52 美元的阻力位。如果它能够重新获得支撑位，该股可能会上涨至 10 美元水平。</li><li>空头希望看到大量的空头成交量进入，并将 ContextLogic 的股价跌破 6.71 美元的支撑位。如果ContextLogic失去了支持它的水平，那么下面就没有价格历史形式的进一步支持了。6美元将是一个较低的心理支持水平。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1198224425","content_text":"ContextLogic Inc. Inc was the third most mentioned stock in the r/WallStreetBets community on Monday night followed by AMC Entertainment Holdings, Inc.\nThe stock is popular among retail traders due to its underlying statistics:\n\nFloat: ContextLogic has a relatively small float of 362.37 shares.\nOwnership: The stock has a bizarre ownership level with 93.66% of its float tied up in the hands of insiders and institutions. Institutions own 89.24% of its shares and 4.42% are held by insiders.\nShort Interest: As of July 30, 29.12 million shares, meaning 19.02% of ContextLogic’s float are held short. This number has increased substantially from the 20.98 million shares that were held short in June.\n\nThe number of shares held short could have increased further after the e-commerce company gapped down about 25% after reporting a massive earning loss on Aug. 12. The stock then bounced at a support level created in the pre-market on Aug. 13, but on Monday ContextLogic received a number of analyst downgrades and traded back down toward the level.\nThe ContextLogic Chart: ContextLogic has a newly created support level at $6.71. On Monday the stock traded down to test the level as support and it held. On Tuesday it tested the level again as support and bounced upwards from it.\nContextLogic has a huge gap above between about $7.87 and $9.32. Gaps on charts fill about 90% of the time so it's likely the stock will trade up to fill the gap in the future.\nContextLogic is trading below both the eight-day and 21-day exponential moving averages (EMAs) with the eight-day EMA trending below the 21-day, both of which are bearish indicators. The stock is also trading below the 50-day simple moving average which indicates longer-term sentiment is currently bearish.\nThe relative strength index (RSI) on the stock is has been measuring in at about 28% since ContextLogic gapped down Aug. 13. When an RSI measures below 30% the stock is considered to be in oversold territory which is a buy signal for technical traders. It's likely ContextLogic’s RSI will correct back up above 30% in the near future.\n\nBulls want to see big bullish volume come in and drive ContextLogic back up toward a resistance level at $7.52. If it can regain the level as support the stock could move up higher toward the $10 level.\nBears want to see big bearish volume come in and drop ContextLogic’s stock down below support at $6.71. If ContextLogic loses the level as support it there is no further support below in the form of price history. $6 would be a lower psychological support level.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"WISH":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":872,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897842803,"gmtCreate":1628908167402,"gmtModify":1633688580621,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"All staged&nbsp;","listText":"All staged&nbsp;","text":"All staged","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897842803","repostId":"1167599158","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1194,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":896831917,"gmtCreate":1628567084539,"gmtModify":1633746088381,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/896831917","repostId":"1188337613","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":747,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":891823985,"gmtCreate":1628380413947,"gmtModify":1633751416230,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/891823985","repostId":"1119792130","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1010,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807814591,"gmtCreate":1628028730013,"gmtModify":1633754366095,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807814591","repostId":"1171505764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":802688660,"gmtCreate":1627776917150,"gmtModify":1633756569054,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Will up again?","listText":"Will up again?","text":"Will up again?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/802688660","repostId":"2155001152","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":799,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":806459661,"gmtCreate":1627690386953,"gmtModify":1633757153359,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls&nbsp;","listText":"Like pls&nbsp;","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/806459661","repostId":"1125426477","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1125426477","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1627688762,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1125426477?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-31 07:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BofA Says Interest Rates Are at 5,000-Year Low<blockquote>美国银行称利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1125426477","media":"The Street","summary":"'At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that th","content":"<p>  'At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon,' BofA says.  Bank of America says interest rates are at a 5,000-year low and recommends holding quality, defensive stocks for the rest of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，在未来5000年的某个时候，利率将会上升，但华尔街并不担心这种情况会很快发生。美国银行表示，利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点，并建议在今年剩余时间内持有优质防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> The interest-rate calculation comes from BofA’s own data, the Bank of England, Global Financial Data and the 2005 book “A History of Interest Rates.”</p><p><blockquote>利率计算来自美国银行自己的数据、英格兰银行、全球金融数据和 2005 年出版的《利率历史》一书。</blockquote></p><p> “Central banks are keeping global interest rates at 5,000 year lows,” wrote BofA&nbsp; Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. “At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔-哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）写道：”各国央行正在将全球利率维持在5000年来的低点。“在未来 5000 年的某个时候，利率将会上升，但华尔街并不担心这种情况会很快发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The message of this week’s FOMC meeting was \"we will let it [the economy] run hot, [represents an] ok for inflation to be not-so-transitory,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，本周的联邦公开市场委员会会议传达的信息是 “我们将让（经济）过热，（代表）通胀不那么短暂是可以的”。</blockquote></p><p> “The market reaction will be [to push] the U.S. dollar down and U.S. Treasury yields up. Commodities will remain bid, and there will be a rotation to emerging market stocks and bonds.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场的反应将是[推低]美元，推高美国国债收益率。大宗商品仍将受到青睐，新兴市场股票和债券将轮换。”</blockquote></p><p> Hartnett also sees a “preference for quality and defensive stocks, driven by inflation causing growth and EPS estimates to fall. The U.S. consumer has peaked.”</p><p><blockquote>哈特内特还认为，“在通货膨胀的推动下，人们偏爱优质和防御性股票，导致增长和每股收益预期下降。美国消费者已经达到顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> As for BofA’s advice, it recommends owning “defensive, quality stocks in the second half, … as policy flip-flops will end in a market correction,” Hartnett says.</p><p><blockquote>哈特内特说，至于美国银行的建议，它建议 “在下半年持有防御性的优质股票.因为政策的反转将以市场调整告终”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA favors defensive stocks in vaccinated markets, such as the U.S. and European Union. And it likes cyclical reopening stocks in markets with “vaccine-upside, i.e. Japan, China and emerging markets.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行青睐美国和欧盟等疫苗接种市场的防御性股票。它喜欢在具有 “疫苗上涨空间的市场，如日本、中国和新兴市场 ”周期性重新开盘股票。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks are falling Friday, as investors weigh concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and disappointing results from online retail giant Amazon (AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者权衡对 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株传播和在线零售巨头亚马逊 (AMZN) 令人失望的业绩的担忧，美国股市周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1610613172068","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BofA Says Interest Rates Are at 5,000-Year Low<blockquote>美国银行称利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBofA Says Interest Rates Are at 5,000-Year Low<blockquote>美国银行称利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Street</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-31 07:46</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  'At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon,' BofA says.  Bank of America says interest rates are at a 5,000-year low and recommends holding quality, defensive stocks for the rest of the year.</p><p><blockquote>美国银行表示，在未来5000年的某个时候，利率将会上升，但华尔街并不担心这种情况会很快发生。美国银行表示，利率处于 5,000 年来的最低点，并建议在今年剩余时间内持有优质防御性股票。</blockquote></p><p> The interest-rate calculation comes from BofA’s own data, the Bank of England, Global Financial Data and the 2005 book “A History of Interest Rates.”</p><p><blockquote>利率计算来自美国银行自己的数据、英格兰银行、全球金融数据和 2005 年出版的《利率历史》一书。</blockquote></p><p> “Central banks are keeping global interest rates at 5,000 year lows,” wrote BofA&nbsp; Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. “At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon.”</p><p><blockquote>“美国银行首席投资策略师迈克尔-哈特内特（Michael Hartnett）写道：”各国央行正在将全球利率维持在5000年来的低点。“在未来 5000 年的某个时候，利率将会上升，但华尔街并不担心这种情况会很快发生。”</blockquote></p><p> The message of this week’s FOMC meeting was \"we will let it [the economy] run hot, [represents an] ok for inflation to be not-so-transitory,” he said.</p><p><blockquote>他说，本周的联邦公开市场委员会会议传达的信息是 “我们将让（经济）过热，（代表）通胀不那么短暂是可以的”。</blockquote></p><p> “The market reaction will be [to push] the U.S. dollar down and U.S. Treasury yields up. Commodities will remain bid, and there will be a rotation to emerging market stocks and bonds.”</p><p><blockquote>“市场的反应将是[推低]美元，推高美国国债收益率。大宗商品仍将受到青睐，新兴市场股票和债券将轮换。”</blockquote></p><p> Hartnett also sees a “preference for quality and defensive stocks, driven by inflation causing growth and EPS estimates to fall. The U.S. consumer has peaked.”</p><p><blockquote>哈特内特还认为，“在通货膨胀的推动下，人们偏爱优质和防御性股票，导致增长和每股收益预期下降。美国消费者已经达到顶峰”。</blockquote></p><p> As for BofA’s advice, it recommends owning “defensive, quality stocks in the second half, … as policy flip-flops will end in a market correction,” Hartnett says.</p><p><blockquote>哈特内特说，至于美国银行的建议，它建议 “在下半年持有防御性的优质股票.因为政策的反转将以市场调整告终”。</blockquote></p><p> BofA favors defensive stocks in vaccinated markets, such as the U.S. and European Union. And it likes cyclical reopening stocks in markets with “vaccine-upside, i.e. Japan, China and emerging markets.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行青睐美国和欧盟等疫苗接种市场的防御性股票。它喜欢在具有 “疫苗上涨空间的市场，如日本、中国和新兴市场 ”周期性重新开盘股票。</blockquote></p><p> U.S. stocks are falling Friday, as investors weigh concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and disappointing results from online retail giant Amazon (AMZN).</p><p><blockquote>由于投资者权衡对 COVID-19 德尔塔变异毒株传播和在线零售巨头亚马逊 (AMZN) 令人失望的业绩的担忧，美国股市周五下跌。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/b-of-a-interest-rates-5000-year-\">The Street</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/investing/b-of-a-interest-rates-5000-year-","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1125426477","content_text":"'At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon,' BofA says.\n\nBank of America says interest rates are at a 5,000-year low and recommends holding quality, defensive stocks for the rest of the year.\nThe interest-rate calculation comes from BofA’s own data, the Bank of England, Global Financial Data and the 2005 book “A History of Interest Rates.”\n“Central banks are keeping global interest rates at 5,000 year lows,” wrote BofA  Chief Investment Strategist Michael Hartnett. “At some point in the next 5,000 years, rates will rise, but there is no fear on Wall Street that this happens anytime soon.”\nThe message of this week’s FOMC meeting was \"we will let it [the economy] run hot, [represents an] ok for inflation to be not-so-transitory,” he said.\n“The market reaction will be [to push] the U.S. dollar down and U.S. Treasury yields up. Commodities will remain bid, and there will be a rotation to emerging market stocks and bonds.”\nHartnett also sees a “preference for quality and defensive stocks, driven by inflation causing growth and EPS estimates to fall. The U.S. consumer has peaked.”\nAs for BofA’s advice, it recommends owning “defensive, quality stocks in the second half, … as policy flip-flops will end in a market correction,” Hartnett says.\nBofA favors defensive stocks in vaccinated markets, such as the U.S. and European Union. And it likes cyclical reopening stocks in markets with “vaccine-upside, i.e. Japan, China and emerging markets.”\nU.S. stocks are falling Friday, as investors weigh concerns about the spread of the COVID-19 Delta variant and disappointing results from online retail giant Amazon (AMZN).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":984,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808227587,"gmtCreate":1627597591049,"gmtModify":1633758041883,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088052587339740","idStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808227587","repostId":"1165345369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":173188650,"gmtCreate":1626646303470,"gmtModify":1633925392473,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like.&nbsp;","listText":"Like.&nbsp;","text":"Like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/173188650","repostId":"1156209584","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":596,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":881780714,"gmtCreate":1631405678538,"gmtModify":1631889153452,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/881780714","repostId":"2166370118","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2776,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":814582112,"gmtCreate":1630844855636,"gmtModify":1631889153458,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like&nbsp;","listText":"Like&nbsp;","text":"Like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/814582112","repostId":"1157895022","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1157895022","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630810619,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1157895022?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-05 10:56","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1157895022","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do ","content":"<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Beat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBeat the market with this quant system that’s very bullish on stocks at record highs<blockquote>利用这个量化系统战胜市场，该系统非常看好创纪录高点的股票</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-05 10:56</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.</b>  Imagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.</p><p><blockquote><b>万斯-霍华德（Vance Howard）的 HCM 战术增长基金（Tactical Growwth Fund）会让你在谨慎的情况下进出股市。到目前为止，他的计算机科学家团队的策略已经取得了成效。</b>想象一下，当你坐下来享受生活时，你有一台赚钱机器在股市上收获收益。</blockquote></p><p> That’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.</p><p><blockquote>这是每个人的梦想，对吧？投资者万斯-霍华德认为他找到了答案。</blockquote></p><p> Howard and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.</p><p><blockquote>佐治亚州罗斯威尔的霍华德资本管理公司的霍华德和他的一小群计算机程序员。，有一个量化系统，发布巨大的回报。</blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth Fund&nbsp;HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000&nbsp;benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.</p><p><blockquote>根据晨星公司的数据，他的 HCM 战术增长基金 HCMGX,+0.35% 在过去五年中以年化计算比其罗素 1000 基准指数和大型混合基金类别高出 8.5-10.4 个百分点。这不是一个小壮举，不仅仅是因为它必须克服2.22%的费用。战胜市场根本不容易。他的 HCM 股息板块 PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) 和 HCM 收入 PlusHCMLX,+0.30% 基金表现类似。</blockquote></p><p> There are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?</p><p><blockquote>有缺点，我在下面详细介绍。（其中：潜在的长期表现不佳和定期税单。）但首先，我们能从这位赢家身上学到什么？</blockquote></p><p> So-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.</p><p><blockquote>所谓的量化者从不分享他们专有系统的所有细节，但霍华德分享了很多细节，你会看到的。这位德克萨斯州牧场主有很多基于 “马感 ”的好建议--考虑到他对市场有着极具感染力的热情，以及他三十年的职业牧场主经验，这并不奇怪。</blockquote></p><p> Here are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.</p><p><blockquote>以下是最近对他的采访中的五个教训、12 只交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和 4 只值得考虑的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #1: Don’t be emotional</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第一课：不要情绪化</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.</p><p><blockquote>难怪这么多人在市场上表现不佳。进化注定了我们会失败。为了生存，我们学会了逃避让我们害怕的事情。渴望更多令人愉快的东西——比如甜食或脂肪，以在可能很长一段时间没有食物之前储存卡路里。但在市场上，出于恐惧和贪婪的情绪行事总是会让我们在错误的时间做错误的事情。底部卖出，顶部买入。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.</p><p><blockquote>同样，我们也相信与人群在一起会带来安全。如果你是稀树草原上的斑马，那么如果你单独行动，就更有可能被捕食者叼走。这里的问题是成为人群的一部分——以及人群心理——把我们愚蠢到纯粹的情感层面。这就是为什么人群中的人们会做他们自己永远不会做的可怕事情。你有多聪明并不重要。当你加入人群时，你会失去很多智商点。基本情绪占据主导地位。</blockquote></p><p> To do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”</p><p><blockquote>要想在市场上做好，你必须抵消这些趋势。“霍华德说：”个人投资者和基金经理犯的最大错误之一就是情绪化。“放下你的情绪。”</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #2: Have a system and stick to it</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第二课：建立一个系统并坚持下去</b></blockquote></p><p> To exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.</p><p><blockquote>要驱除情绪，要有一个系统。“霍华德说：”不要事后猜测。“这让你不会让大流行病或阿富汗把你吓出市场”。他评级了他的系统HCM-BuyLine。它基本上是一个动量和趋势跟踪系统——在市场上通常效果很好。</blockquote></p><p> The HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&amp;P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.</p><p><blockquote>HCM-BuyLine基本上是这样工作的。首先，霍华德没有使用标准普尔 500SPX（-0.03%）或道琼斯工业平均指数（-0.21%），而是混合了几个股票指数来创建自己的指数。然后他使用移动平均线来告诉他市场是处于上升趋势还是下降趋势。</blockquote></p><p> When the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.</p><p><blockquote>当移动平均线下跌3.5%时，他卖出35%。如果下跌 6.5%，他就再卖出 35%。他很少使用100%的现金。</blockquote></p><p> “If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果买盘是积极的，无论如何我们都会长期持有。“我们让数学来决定，就能把所有的情绪都排除在外”。</blockquote></p><p> Right now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)</p><p><blockquote>目前，情况看涨。（更多内容见下文。）</blockquote></p><p> Your system also has to tell you when to get back in.</p><p><blockquote>你的系统也必须告诉你什么时候回来。</blockquote></p><p> “That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”这就是大多数人搞砸的地方。“他们退出了市场，却不知道什么时候才能重新进来”。当他的自定义指数连续六个交易日交易高于其移动平均线时，HCM-BuyLine 会发出买入信号，然后继续交易高于这六天的高点。</blockquote></p><p> You don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.</p><p><blockquote>你不需要一个能准确预测评级市场顶部或底部的系统。相反，买入线让霍华德在 85% 的时间里远离下跌市场，在 85% 的好时机里则保持下跌。</blockquote></p><p> “If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”如果我们能坚持不懈地做到这一点，我们就能获得更高的回报，生活压力也会更小。“在糟糕的录音带中全神贯注并不好玩”。</blockquote></p><p> His system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.</p><p><blockquote>他的系统让他退出市场很慢，但让他回来很快。即使是10%的修正也不一定会让他离开。他经常买入这些回调。快速回归是有意义的，因为底部的复苏往往会很快发生。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德说：”HCM-BuyLine 消除了整个过程中的所有情绪。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #3: Don’t fight the tape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第三课：不要与磁带对抗</b></blockquote></p><p> This concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”</p><p><blockquote>这一概念是马蒂-茨威格（Marty Zweig）经典著作《华尔街的胜利》（Winning on Wall Street）的核心智慧之一。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> “You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”</p><p><blockquote>“霍华德同意道：”你必须站在市场的正确一边。“如果你试图在糟糕的市场中进行多头交易，那将是痛苦的。”</blockquote></p><p> In other words, don’t try to be a hero.</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，不要试图成为英雄。</blockquote></p><p> “Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”有时候，不赔钱才是你想要的。</blockquote></p><p> Likewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.</p><p><blockquote>同样，不要因为市场创下新高--比如现在--就变得谨慎。你应该喜欢新高，因为这是市场力量可能会持续的迹象。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #4: Keep it simple</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第4课：保持简单</b></blockquote></p><p> As you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.</p><p><blockquote>正如您将在下面看到的，霍华德并不使用衍生品、掉期或指数期权等深奥的工具。他甚至不交易外国股票或货币。这对个人投资者来说是令人耳目一新的，因为我们更难获得这些工具。</blockquote></p><p> “You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”你不必交易疯狂的东西。“你可以交易普通的 ETF，击败所有人”。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Lesson #5: How to trade the current market</b></p><p><blockquote><b>第5课：如何交易当前市场</b></blockquote></p><p> First, be long.</p><p><blockquote>首先，做多。</blockquote></p><p> “The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”</p><p><blockquote>“HCM-BuyLine 非常积极。我们百分之百同意，”霍华德说。“市场正在扩大。这变得非常令人兴奋。我们认为市场不会很快好转。我们正在买入回调。”</blockquote></p><p> One bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”</p><p><blockquote>一个看涨信号是所有的现金都在观望。“如果科维德有任何缓解，我们可能会看到一场大反弹。我们最终可能会迎来一个伟大的秋季[赛季]。”</blockquote></p><p> Howard uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德还使用动量指标来选择股票和 ETF。对于行业，他倾向于以下几种。</blockquote></p><p> He likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢医疗保健，可通过 iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04% 和 ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12% ETF 进行交易。他越来越看好生物技术，他通过 iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB 投资生物技术，-0.11%。</blockquote></p><p> He likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and&nbsp;iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.</p><p><blockquote>他喜欢通过 iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC 交易的非必需消费品， -0.30%， 以及通过 US Global JetsJETS 交易的航空公司， -1.17%.他还喜欢通过 Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%、iShares US TechnologyYYW,+0.50% 和 iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75% 进行科技投资。</blockquote></p><p> He likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.</p><p><blockquote>他通过 Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07% 看好小盘股。以及通过 SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible Securities CWB,+0.64% 和 iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37% 看好可转换债券。</blockquote></p><p> As for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.</p><p><blockquote>至于个股，他特别提到了科技股中的微软MSFT（-0.00%）和苹果APL（+0.42%），以及亚马逊.comAMZN（+0.43%）和特斯拉TSLA（+0.16%）。</blockquote></p><p> Also consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.</p><p><blockquote>还可以考虑霍华德的两只 ETF： HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%，HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%。</blockquote></p><p> He prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.</p><p><blockquote>他更喜欢在下跌 1%-3% 时增持。</blockquote></p><p> <b>A few drawbacks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>一些缺点</b></blockquote></p><p> His HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.</p><p><blockquote>他的 HCM 战术增长基金自 2015 年推出以来，曾连续两年表现不佳，表现在 1.5% 至 8.8% 之间。随后，该基金强势回归，实现了上述非常积极的五年业绩。投资他的系统可能需要耐心。</blockquote></p><p> Every manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.</p><p><blockquote>霍华德说，包括沃伦·巴菲特在内的每个经理都可能经历一段时间的表现不佳。</blockquote></p><p> “We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”</p><p><blockquote>“他说：”我们正处于胜算之中。“即使在赔率游戏中，你也可能有一两手烂牌。”</blockquote></p><p> Another challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.</p><p><blockquote>另一个挑战是高流动率，战术增长每年为140%。这意味着山姆大叔在好年景里得到了很大的削减。因此，如果您购买霍华德的基金，您可能需要在税收保护账户中购买。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/beat-the-market-with-this-quant-system-thats-very-bullish-on-stocks-at-record-highs-11630761531?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1157895022","content_text":"Vance Howard’s HCM Tactical Growth Fund moves you in and out of the stock market when prudent to do so. So far his team of computer scientists’ strategy has paid off.\n\nImagine you had a money-making machine to harvest gains in the stock market while you sat back to enjoy life.\nThat’s everyone’s dream, right? Investor Vance Howard thinks he’s found it.\nHoward and his small army of computer programmers atHoward Capital Managementin Roswell, Ga., have a quantitative system that posts great returns.\nHis HCM Tactical Growth Fund HCMGX,+0.35%beats its Russell 1000 benchmark index and large-blend fund category by 8.5-10.4 percentage points annualized over the past five years, according to Morningstar. That is no small feat, and not only because it has to overcome a 2.22% fee. Beating the market is simply not easy. His HCM Dividend Sector PlusHCMQX,-0.05%) and HCM Income PlusHCMLX,+0.30%funds post similar outperformance.\nThere are drawbacks, which I detail below. (Among them: Potentially long stretches of underperformance and regular tax bills.) But first, what can we learn from this winner?\nSo-called quants never share all the details of their proprietary systems, but Howard shares a lot, as you’ll see. And this Texas rancher has a lot of good advice based on “horse sense” — not surprising, given his infectious passion for the markets, and his three decades of experience as a pro.\nHere are five lessons, 12 exchange traded funds (ETFs) and four stocks to consider, from a recent interview with him.\nLesson #1: Don’t be emotional\nIt’s no surprise so many people do poorly in the market. Evolution has programmed us to fail. For survival, we’ve learned to run from things that frightens us. And crave more of things that are pleasurable — like sweets or fats to store calories ahead of what might be a long stretch without food. But in the market, acting on the emotions of fear and greed invariably make us do the wrong thing at the wrong time. Sell at the bottom, buy at the top.\nLikewise, we’re programmed to believe being with the crowd brings safety. If you’re a zebra on the Savanna, you are more likely to get picked off by a predator if you go it alone. The problem here is being part of a crowd — and crowd psychology — dumb us down to a purely emotional level. This is why people in crowds do terrible things they would never do on their own. It doesn’t matter how smart you are. When you join a crowd, you lose a lot of IQ points. Base emotions take over.\nTo do well in the market, you have to counteract these tendencies. “One of the biggest mistakes individual investors and money managers make is getting emotional,” says Howard. “Let your emotions go.”\nLesson #2: Have a system and stick to it\nTo exorcise emotion, have a system. “And don’t second guess it,” says Howard. “This keeps you from letting the pandemic or Afghanistan scare you out of the market.” He calls his system the HCM-BuyLine. It is basically a momentum and trend-following system — which often works well in the markets.\nThe HCM-BuyLine basically works like this. First, rather than use the S&P 500SPX,-0.03%or the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,-0.21%,Howard blends several stock indices to create his own index. Then he uses a moving average that tells him whether the market is in an uptrend or downtrend.\nWhen the moving average drops 3.5%, he sells 35%. If it drops 6.5%, he sells another 35%. He rarely goes to 100% cash.\n“If the BuyLine is positive, we will stay long no matter what,” he says. “We take all the emotion out of the equation by letting the math decide.”\nRight now, it’s bullish. (More on this below.)\nYour system also has to tell you when to get back in.\n“That’s where most people screw up,” he says. “They get out of the market, and they don’t know when to get back in.” The HCM-BuyLine gives a buy signal when his custom index trades above its moving average for six consecutive sessions, and then goes on to trade above the high hit during those six days.\nYou don’t need a system that calls exact market tops or bottoms. Instead, the BuyLine keeps Howard out of down markets 85% of the time, and in for 85% of the good times.\n“If we can do that consistently, we have superior returns and a less stressful life,” he says. “Being all in during a bad tape is no fun.”\nHis system is slow to get him out of the market, but quick to get him back in. Not even a 10% correction will necessarily move him out. He’s often buying those pullbacks. Getting back in fast makes sense, because recoveries off bottoms tend to happen fast.\n“The HCM-BuyLine takes all the emotion out of the process,” says Howard.\nLesson #3: Don’t fight the tape\nThis concept is one of the core pieces of wisdom from Marty Zweig’s classic book, “Winning on Wall Street.”\n“You have to stay on the right side of market,” agrees Howard. “If you try to trade long in a bad market, it is painful.”\nIn other words, don’t try to be a hero.\n“Sometimes, not losing money is where you want to be,” he says.\nLikewise, don’t turn cautious just because the market hits new highs — like now. You should love new highs, because it is a sign of market strength that may likely endure.\nLesson #4: Keep it simple\nAs you’ll see below, Howard doesn’t use esoteric instruments such as derivatives, swaps or index options. He doesn’t even trade foreign stocks or currencies. This is refreshing for individual investors, because we have a harder time accessing those tools.\n“You don’t have to trade crazy stuff,” he says. “You can trade plain-vanilla ETFs and beat everybody out there.”\nLesson #5: How to trade the current market\nFirst, be long.\n“The HCM-BuyLine is very positive. We are 100% in,” says Howard. “The market is broadening out. It is getting pretty exciting. We do not see it turn around any time soon. We are buying pullbacks.”\nOne bullish signal is all the cash on the sidelines. “If there is any relief in Covid, we may see a big rally. We may end up with a great fall [season].”\nHoward uses momentum indicators to select stocks and ETFs, too. For sectors he favors the following.\nHe likes health care, tradable through the iShares US HealthcareIYH,-0.04%and ProShares Ultra Health CareRXL,+0.12%ETFs. He’s turning more bullish on biotech, which he plays via the iShares Biotechnology ETFIBB,-0.11%.\nHe likes consumer discretionary tradable through the iShares US Consumer ServicesIYC,-0.30%,and airlines via US Global JetsJETS,-1.17%.He also likes tech exposure via the Invesco QQQ TrustQQQ,+0.31%,iShares US TechnologyIYW,+0.50%and iShares SemiconductorSOXX,+0.75%.\nHe likes small-caps via the Vanguard Small-Cap Growth Index FundVBK,+0.07%.And convertible bonds via SPDR Bloomberg Barclays Convertible SecuritiesCWB,+0.64%and iShares Convertible BondICVT,+0.37%.\nAs for individual names, he singles out MicrosoftMSFT,-0.00%and AppleAAPL,+0.42%in tech, as well as Amazon.comAMZN,+0.43%and TeslaTSLA,+0.16%.\nAlso consider Howard’s two ETFs: The HCM Defender 100 IndexQQH,+0.62%and HCM Defender 500 IndexLGH,+1.32%.\nHe prefers to add to holdings on 1%-3% dips.\nA few drawbacks\nHis HCM Tactical Growth fund has a history of posting two-year stretches of underperformance of 1.5% to 8.8%, since it was launched in 2015. The fund then came roaring back to net the very positive five-year outperformance cited above. Investing in his system can require patience.\nEvery manager, including Warren Buffett, can have a stretch of underperformance, says Howard.\n“We are in the odds game,” he says. “Even in the odds game, you can have a bad hand or two thrown at you.”\nAnother challenge is the high turnover, which is 140% a year for Tactical Growth. This means Uncle Sam takes a big cut in the good years. So if you buy Howard’s funds, you may want to do so in a tax-protected account.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2370,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146010158,"gmtCreate":1626043369074,"gmtModify":1633930818104,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Great&nbsp;","listText":"Great&nbsp;","text":"Great","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146010158","repostId":"2150025553","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":429,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834973921,"gmtCreate":1629769181063,"gmtModify":1631889153475,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Like pls","listText":"Like pls","text":"Like pls","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834973921","repostId":"2161777891","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":898,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":808227587,"gmtCreate":1627597591049,"gmtModify":1633758041883,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like","listText":"Pls like","text":"Pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/808227587","repostId":"1165345369","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1066,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171885602,"gmtCreate":1626736973906,"gmtModify":1633924609845,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Again","listText":"Again","text":"Again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171885602","repostId":"2152652683","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179562497,"gmtCreate":1626565384819,"gmtModify":1633925914449,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Hooray&nbsp;","listText":"Hooray&nbsp;","text":"Hooray","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179562497","repostId":"2152267689","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":604,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880023554,"gmtCreate":1631002036278,"gmtModify":1631889153457,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Likely&nbsp;","listText":"Likely&nbsp;","text":"Likely","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880023554","repostId":"1195362599","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1195362599","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631001600,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1195362599?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-07 16:00","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1195362599","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)\n(Sept 7) Boeing fell over 2% in early trading Tuesday.\n\n\nIri","content":"<p><i><b>(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 9 月 7 日上午 10:43）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> (Sept 7)&nbsp;Boeing&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in early trading Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>（9月7日）波音公司周二早盘下跌逾2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce38a3693be0da78fc1d6a224db1c3b\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Irish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.</b>  LONDON—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">Ryanair Holdings PLC</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>&nbsp;Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱尔兰低成本巨头瑞安航空表示，飞机制造商不会为了赢得交易而降价。</b>伦敦—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">瑞安航空控股有限公司</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>Co.BA-1.20% 在美国以外最大的客户表示，由于定价纠纷，该公司将放弃与这家美国喷气式飞机制造商就 737 MAX 潜在新订单进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has pushed to catch up with rival&nbsp;Airbus SE&nbsp;on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle&nbsp;category. The 737 MAX competes&nbsp;with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在关键的单通道类别中远远落后，在航空公司和出租商的喷气式飞机订单方面一直在努力追赶竞争对手空中客车公司。737 MAX 在该市场上与空客的 A320 竞争，空客利用 MAX 近两年的停飞期提高了市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying&nbsp;75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空是一家总部位于都柏林的折扣航空公司，是欧洲客运量最大的航空公司，一直是 737 MAX 的大买家，去年购买了 75 架该飞机。尽管停飞，但这一命令被视为对飞机未来的信任投票。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Ryanair&nbsp;has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.</p><p><blockquote>最近，瑞安航空在过去 10 个月里一直在与波音公司就新订购 737 MAX 10 飞机进行谈判，这是波音公司最新也是最大的单通道主力机型。分析师和高管们都将这一订单视为波音公司在机型危机后能多快收回积压订单的另一个风向标。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair said Monday that those talks were now over.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空周一表示，这些谈判现已结束。</blockquote></p><p> “Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.</p><p><blockquote>“该航空公司表示：”上周，合作伙伴之间的定价差距显然无法缩小，因此，双方同意不再在这些谈判上浪费时间。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market,&nbsp;European intracontinental flying.</p><p><blockquote>随着航空旅行在疫情期间急剧下降后开始恢复，波音和空客正在竞相签约客户。瑞安航空预测其主要市场欧洲大陆内航班将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司表示，即使没有新的 MAX 10，其订单上仍有足够的飞机将其机队增加到 600 多架，并满足其到 2025 年的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> Such a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual&nbsp;for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays,&nbsp;manufacturing quality and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>这种公开结束谈判并不一定是最终协议的丧钟。航空公司客户在交货延迟、制造质量和定价等问题上公开哄骗波音和空客并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空以在航空业低迷时抢购大幅折扣飞机而闻名。瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔-奥利里（Michael O'Leary）坚持认为，只有在瑞安航空能够与制造商就价格达成合适的协议的情况下，他才会进行另一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies.&nbsp;The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.</p><p><blockquote>MAX 10 由波音公司于 2017 年推出，拥有更长的客舱和可选的额外油箱，可与空中客车公司的 A321neo 竞争，后者迄今为止一直主导着更大的窄体飞机市场。该飞机于今年 6 月进行了首次试飞，并将于 2023 年投入使用，但因 MAX 停飞而推迟。</blockquote></p><p> “We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥利里先生说：”我们对未能达成协议感到失望。“我们并不认同波音公司乐观的定价前景。”</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”</p><p><blockquote>波音公司发言人表示，瑞安航空是长期合作伙伴。“她说：”我们重视他们的业务，并致力于支持他们。“与此同时，我们将继续遵守纪律，做出对客户和公司有意义的决定”。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>自美国和欧洲取消 737 MAX 的停飞订单以来，这家美国飞机制造商收到了一系列订单。分析人士将此部分归因于前所有者遗弃的积压飞机。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large,&nbsp;200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,&nbsp;including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新可用数据，截至 7 月 31 日，波音公司已预订了 630 架飞机订单。其中包括与联合航空控股公司达成的200架飞机的大型交易，其中包括150架MAX 10机型。与此同时，空客不包括最近与达美航空达成的交易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>自今年年初以来，Linesand Jet2 已收到 167 架飞机的总订单。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，空客在 A320neo 和 MAX 之间的竞争中的市场份额已超过 60%，分析师和业内认为这是降低生产成本和为客户降价的关键门槛。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.</p><p><blockquote>与瑞安航空的谈判破裂之际，波音公司仍在继续解决其更大的 787 梦想客机的生产问题，这导致该公司自去年 10 月以来几乎停止了所有宽体飞机的交付。《华尔街日报》报道称，交付暂停可能至少会延长到 10 月下旬，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-一年的截止日期，允许客户更容易地退出他们的飞机购买协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.</p><p><blockquote>据波音公司称，截至 6 月底，约有 100 架已完成的 787 飞机正在等待交付，库存价值超过 250 亿美元。在联邦航空管理局开始评估飞机生产中的制造缺陷后，飞机最初停止了交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig Boeing Customer Says It Is Walking Away From New MAX Order<blockquote>波音大客户表示将放弃新的 MAX 订单</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-07 16:00</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><i><b>(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)</b></i></p><p><blockquote><i><b>（更新：美国东部时间 2021 年 9 月 7 日上午 10:43）</b></i></blockquote></p><p> (Sept 7)&nbsp;Boeing&nbsp;fell&nbsp;over&nbsp;2%&nbsp;in early trading Tuesday.</p><p><blockquote>（9月7日）波音公司周二早盘下跌逾2%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9ce38a3693be0da78fc1d6a224db1c3b\" tg-width=\"988\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p>   <b>Irish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.</b>  LONDON—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">Ryanair Holdings PLC</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">Boeing</a>&nbsp;Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.</p><p><blockquote><b>爱尔兰低成本巨头瑞安航空表示，飞机制造商不会为了赢得交易而降价。</b>伦敦—<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/RYAAY\">瑞安航空控股有限公司</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BA\">波音</a>Co.BA-1.20% 在美国以外最大的客户表示，由于定价纠纷，该公司将放弃与这家美国喷气式飞机制造商就 737 MAX 潜在新订单进行谈判。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has pushed to catch up with rival&nbsp;Airbus SE&nbsp;on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle&nbsp;category. The 737 MAX competes&nbsp;with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.</p><p><blockquote>波音公司在关键的单通道类别中远远落后，在航空公司和出租商的喷气式飞机订单方面一直在努力追赶竞争对手空中客车公司。737 MAX 在该市场上与空客的 A320 竞争，空客利用 MAX 近两年的停飞期提高了市场份额。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying&nbsp;75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空是一家总部位于都柏林的折扣航空公司，是欧洲客运量最大的航空公司，一直是 737 MAX 的大买家，去年购买了 75 架该飞机。尽管停飞，但这一命令被视为对飞机未来的信任投票。</blockquote></p><p> More recently, Ryanair&nbsp;has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.</p><p><blockquote>最近，瑞安航空在过去 10 个月里一直在与波音公司就新订购 737 MAX 10 飞机进行谈判，这是波音公司最新也是最大的单通道主力机型。分析师和高管们都将这一订单视为波音公司在机型危机后能多快收回积压订单的另一个风向标。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair said Monday that those talks were now over.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空周一表示，这些谈判现已结束。</blockquote></p><p> “Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.</p><p><blockquote>“该航空公司表示：”上周，合作伙伴之间的定价差距显然无法缩小，因此，双方同意不再在这些谈判上浪费时间。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market,&nbsp;European intracontinental flying.</p><p><blockquote>随着航空旅行在疫情期间急剧下降后开始恢复，波音和空客正在竞相签约客户。瑞安航空预测其主要市场欧洲大陆内航班将强劲复苏。</blockquote></p><p> The airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.</p><p><blockquote>该航空公司表示，即使没有新的 MAX 10，其订单上仍有足够的飞机将其机队增加到 600 多架，并满足其到 2025 年的扩张计划。</blockquote></p><p> Such a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual&nbsp;for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays,&nbsp;manufacturing quality and pricing.</p><p><blockquote>这种公开结束谈判并不一定是最终协议的丧钟。航空公司客户在交货延迟、制造质量和定价等问题上公开哄骗波音和空客并不罕见。</blockquote></p><p> Ryanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.</p><p><blockquote>瑞安航空以在航空业低迷时抢购大幅折扣飞机而闻名。瑞安航空首席执行官迈克尔-奥利里（Michael O'Leary）坚持认为，只有在瑞安航空能够与制造商就价格达成合适的协议的情况下，他才会进行另一笔交易。</blockquote></p><p> The MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies.&nbsp;The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.</p><p><blockquote>MAX 10 由波音公司于 2017 年推出，拥有更长的客舱和可选的额外油箱，可与空中客车公司的 A321neo 竞争，后者迄今为止一直主导着更大的窄体飞机市场。该飞机于今年 6 月进行了首次试飞，并将于 2023 年投入使用，但因 MAX 停飞而推迟。</blockquote></p><p> “We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”</p><p><blockquote>“奥利里先生说：”我们对未能达成协议感到失望。“我们并不认同波音公司乐观的定价前景。”</blockquote></p><p> A Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”</p><p><blockquote>波音公司发言人表示，瑞安航空是长期合作伙伴。“她说：”我们重视他们的业务，并致力于支持他们。“与此同时，我们将继续遵守纪律，做出对客户和公司有意义的决定”。</blockquote></p><p> The U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.</p><p><blockquote>自美国和欧洲取消 737 MAX 的停飞订单以来，这家美国飞机制造商收到了一系列订单。分析人士将此部分归因于前所有者遗弃的积压飞机。</blockquote></p><p> Boeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large,&nbsp;200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc.,&nbsp;including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">Air</a> Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.</p><p><blockquote>根据最新可用数据，截至 7 月 31 日，波音公司已预订了 630 架飞机订单。其中包括与联合航空控股公司达成的200架飞机的大型交易，其中包括150架MAX 10机型。与此同时，空客不包括最近与达美航空达成的交易<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AIRI\">空气</a>自今年年初以来，Linesand Jet2 已收到 167 架飞机的总订单。</blockquote></p><p> Despite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，空客在 A320neo 和 MAX 之间的竞争中的市场份额已超过 60%，分析师和业内认为这是降低生产成本和为客户降价的关键门槛。</blockquote></p><p> The collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a>-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.</p><p><blockquote>与瑞安航空的谈判破裂之际，波音公司仍在继续解决其更大的 787 梦想客机的生产问题，这导致该公司自去年 10 月以来几乎停止了所有宽体飞机的交付。《华尔街日报》报道称，交付暂停可能至少会延长到 10 月下旬，超过<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>-一年的截止日期，允许客户更容易地退出他们的飞机购买协议。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> About 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.</p><p><blockquote>据波音公司称，截至 6 月底，约有 100 架已完成的 787 飞机正在等待交付，库存价值超过 250 亿美元。在联邦航空管理局开始评估飞机生产中的制造缺陷后，飞机最初停止了交付。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-boeing-customer-says-it-is-walking-away-from-new-max-order-11630933735?mod=business_lead_pos2\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NGD":"New Gold","BA":"波音","RYAAY":"Ryanair Holdings plc"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-boeing-customer-says-it-is-walking-away-from-new-max-order-11630933735?mod=business_lead_pos2","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1195362599","content_text":"(Update: Sept 7, 2021 at 10:43 a.m. ET)\n(Sept 7) Boeing fell over 2% in early trading Tuesday.\n\n\nIrish low-cost giant Ryanair says plane maker won’t drop prices enough to win deal.\n\nLONDON—Ryanair Holdings PLC, Boeing Co.BA-1.20%’s biggest customer outside of the U.S., said it is walking away from talks with the U.S. jet maker over a potential new order for the 737 MAX in a dispute over pricing.\nBoeing has pushed to catch up with rival Airbus SE on jet orders from airlines and lessors, after falling far behind in the crucial single-aisle category. The 737 MAX competes with Airbus’s A320 in that market, and Airbus capitalized on the MAX’s nearly two-year grounding toboost its market share.\nRyanair, a Dublin-based discount airline that is Europe’s largest carrier by passengers, has been a big buyer of the 737 MAX, buying 75 of the aircraft last year. That order was seen as a vote of confidence in the future of the jet, despite the grounding.\nMore recently, Ryanair has been in talks with Boeing over the past 10 months for a fresh order of 737 MAX 10s, Boeing’s newest and biggest variant of the single-aisle workhorse. Analysts and executives were watching that order as another bellwether for how quickly Boeing can recover its order backlog in the wake of the model’s crisis.\nRyanair said Monday that those talks were now over.\n“Last week it became clear that the pricing gap between the partners could not be closed and accordingly, both sides have agreed to waste no more time on these negotiations,” the airline said.\nBoeing and Airbus are racing to sign up customers as air travel starts to return after falling sharply during the pandemic. Ryanair has forecast a strong recovery in its major market, European intracontinental flying.\nThe airline said that without the new MAX 10 it still has enough aircraft on its order book to grow its fleet to more than 600 and cover its expansion plans through 2025.\nSuch a public end to talks isn’t necessarily a death knell for an eventual deal. It is not unusual for airline customers to publicly cajole both Boeing and Airbus on things like delivery delays, manufacturing quality and pricing.\nRyanair has a reputation for swooping in when the aviation sector is in a downturn to scoop up heavily discounted planes. Ryanair Chief Executive Michael O’Leary has maintained that he would only proceed with another deal if the airline could reach a suitable agreement on price with the manufacturer.\nThe MAX 10 was launched by Boeing in 2017 with a longer cabin and optional extra fuel tanks to rival Airbus SE’s A321neo, which has so far dominated the market for bigger narrow-bodies. The aircraft flew its first test flight in June and is set to enter into service from 2023, delayed by the MAX grounding.\n“We are disappointed we couldn’t reach agreement,” Mr. O’Leary said. “We do not share Boeing’s optimistic pricing outlook.”\nA Boeing spokeswoman said Ryanair is a longstanding partner. “We value their business and are committed to supporting them,” she said. “At the same time, we continue to be disciplined and make decisions that make sense for our customers and our company.”\nThe U.S. plane maker had seen a flurry of orders since the U.S. and Europe lifted their grounding orders on the 737 MAX. Analysts attribute that in part to a backlog of built aircraft that previous owners had abandoned.\nBoeing has booked 630 gross aircraft orders through July 31, according to the latest available data. That includes a large, 200-aircraft deal withUnited Airlines HoldingsInc., including for 150 of the MAX 10 model. Airbus meanwhile, excluding recent deals withDelta Air Linesand Jet2, has had gross orders for 167 aircraft since the start of the year.\nDespite that, Airbus’s market share in the battle between the A320neo and the MAX has exceeded 60%, which analysts and the industry see as a critical threshold lowering production costs and reducing prices for customers.\nThe collapse in talks with Ryanair comes as Boeing continues to battle production issues with its bigger 787 Dreamliner, which has led the company to halt almost all deliveries of the wide-body since October last year. The Wall Street Journal reported that the delivery pause is likely to extenduntil at least late October, passing the one-year deadline that allows customers to more easily exit their purchase agreements for the plane.\nAbout 100 completed 787s were awaiting delivery at the end of June, according to Boeing, representing more than $25 billion in inventory. Deliveries were initially halted after the Federal Aviation Administration began assessing manufacturing defects in the plane’s production.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NGD":0.9,"RYAAY":0.9,"BA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2717,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":807814591,"gmtCreate":1628028730013,"gmtModify":1633754366095,"author":{"id":"4088052587339740","authorId":"4088052587339740","name":"YKYANG","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088052587339740","authorIdStr":"4088052587339740"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Good","listText":"Good","text":"Good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/807814591","repostId":"1171505764","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1196,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}