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2021-07-11

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The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>

2021-07-11

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-09

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2021-07-06

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2021-07-05

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What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>

2021-08-05

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-10

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2021-07-08

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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626812711,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/2153692165?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 04:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc报告季度每股收益为2.97美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153692165","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHAR","content":"<p><html><body>July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月20日-Netflix公司：</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97</p><p><blockquote>*季度每股收益2.97美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度每股收益为2.55美元</blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*季度流媒体净增154万</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度收入为74.77亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度流媒体净增350万</blockquote></p><p>   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER</p><p><blockquote>*亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二</blockquote></p><p>   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>*第二季度每股收益为3.16美元，收入为73.2亿美元——REFINITIV IBES数据</blockquote></p><p>   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>*第三季度每股收益为2.17美元，收入为74.8亿美元——REFINITIV IBES数据</blockquote></p><p>   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA</p><p><blockquote>*最近将我们的低成本流动计划扩展至东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的另外78个国家</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-相信UCAN的会员基础庞大，季度收购季节性较小是UCAN付费会员数量较第一季度下降的主要原因</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-游戏将包含在会员的NETFLIX订阅中，无需支付类似于电影和连续剧的额外费用</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将持续很长时间</blockquote></p><p>   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”</p><p><blockquote>*虽然我们不断评估机会，但我们并不认为任何资产是“必须拥有的”</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-发现仅移动设备计划是向NETFLIX介绍更多消费者的有效方式，同时收入大致中性</blockquote></p><p>   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPON</p><p><blockquote>*尚未发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产</blockquote></p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p><blockquote>Eikon的源文本：更多公司报道：</blockquote></p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc报告季度每股收益为2.97美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc报告季度每股收益为2.97美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 04:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :</p><p><blockquote><html><body>路透7月20日-Netflix公司：</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97</p><p><blockquote>*季度每股收益2.97美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度每股收益为2.55美元</blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*季度流媒体净增154万</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度收入为74.77亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*预计第三季度流媒体净增350万</blockquote></p><p>   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER</p><p><blockquote>*亚太地区约占本季度全球付费净增额的三分之二</blockquote></p><p>   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>*第二季度每股收益为3.16美元，收入为73.2亿美元——REFINITIV IBES数据</blockquote></p><p>   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>*第三季度每股收益为2.17美元，收入为74.8亿美元——REFINITIV IBES数据</blockquote></p><p>   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA</p><p><blockquote>*最近将我们的低成本流动计划扩展至东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的另外78个国家</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-相信UCAN的会员基础庞大，季度收购季节性较小是UCAN付费会员数量较第一季度下降的主要原因</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-预计全年内容摊销约为120亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-游戏将包含在会员的NETFLIX订阅中，无需支付类似于电影和连续剧的额外费用</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将持续很长时间</blockquote></p><p>   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”</p><p><blockquote>*虽然我们不断评估机会，但我们并不认为任何资产是“必须拥有的”</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL</p><p><blockquote>*NETFLIX-发现仅移动设备计划是向NETFLIX介绍更多消费者的有效方式，同时收入大致中性</blockquote></p><p>   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPON</p><p><blockquote>*尚未发现任何足以令人信服地采取行动的大规模资产</blockquote></p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p><blockquote>Eikon的源文本：更多公司报道：</blockquote></p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>（（Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com；））</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","NFLX":"奈飞","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc."},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153692165","content_text":"July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPONSource text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CGEM":1,"APR":1,"SANA":1,"LHDX":1,"NFLX":0.9,"LABP":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3635,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178264576,"gmtCreate":1626824283395,"gmtModify":1631891079118,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178264576","repostId":"2153692050","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2421,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171417409,"gmtCreate":1626756103001,"gmtModify":1631891079122,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171417409","repostId":"2152992651","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2091,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179883512,"gmtCreate":1626502756036,"gmtModify":1631893338883,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179883512","repostId":"2152683392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":684,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142255859,"gmtCreate":1626155741671,"gmtModify":1631893338892,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142255859","repostId":"1175899084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175899084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626155018,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1175899084?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 13:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Banks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年陷入困境，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175899084","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this w","content":"<p>  JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.  The economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、高盛和其他大银行预计本周将公布第二季度大幅收益。对于美国最大的银行来说，经济复苏看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Major players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp; Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp;Co.)和花旗集团(CitigroupInc.)等主要公司预计本周将公布第二季度利润增长，这与一年前相比发生了180度大转弯，当时它们正准备应对一波与Covid-19相关的贷款违约浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也存在障碍。例如，在疫情混乱中蓬勃发展的贸易业务正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo&amp; Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通JPM1.43%和高盛集团周二公布业绩，花旗集团、美国银行和富国银行周三公布业绩。摩根士丹利周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> A year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，银行正在储备数十亿美元为不良贷款做准备。但随着经济前景的好转，银行开始释放准备金，提高了盈利。Keefe，Bruyette&amp;Woods分析师表示，银行第二季度每股利润可能比去年同期高出40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8260467268cca273e41047edf0c891f8\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.</p><p><blockquote>然而，推动银行度过疫情的交易繁荣在第二季度并没有重演。花旗集团和摩根大通高管表示，交易收入将比一年前下降30%或更多。这可能相当于每家银行损失约10%的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师写道：“我们认为，今年夏天是正常化交易水平是否会高于大流行前的严峻考验。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302721437b14cdae7ae901829b12fc18\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Loan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>贷款需求一直不温不火，低利率抑制了银行放贷时的利润。该行业的净息差是衡量贷款盈利能力的关键指标，在第一季度触及历史低点，分析师预计第二季度也大致相同。</blockquote></p><p> Rising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”</p><p><blockquote>利率上升和贷款增加，特别是对消费者的贷款增加，将带来双重提振，但目前尚不清楚这两者何时会发生。Autonomous Research预测2021年大银行的净利息收入将下降，并指出高管们“最近一直在降低预期（但没有完全放弃希望）”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b4274104e83eeee3e4278c0d7eebf8\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>银行有足够的钱可以放贷——事实上，绰绰有余。许多公司仍在囤积现金，根据美联储的数据，美国商业银行现在有17万亿美元的存款。自2020年初以来，这一数字增长了近30%，即3.8万亿美元，相当于2001年的全部规模。</blockquote></p><p> The excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>多余的现金正在拖累利润率，因为银行从中赚取的收入并不多。巴克莱银行分析师估计，如果这些多余的现金能够以更好的利率投入使用，平均税前利润将增加5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539c1dcc796d5a3351a3c376748f8811\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.</p><p><blockquote>最大的银行在疫情最严重的时候出钱免除客户费用，并让员工在家工作。现在他们正试图收回开支。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席财务官保罗·多诺弗里奥(Paul Donofrio)在与分析师举行的第一季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们正处于一场大流行之中，大量新冠疫情支出比我们所有人的预期更加棘手，但他们会出来。这是毫无疑问的。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342037d2e14b034f8b8f0b55d6ec244f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&amp;P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>KBW纳斯达克银行指数在2021年上涨了27%，超过了标普500 16%的涨幅。银行股的涨势将在一定程度上取决于银行提高股息和回购股票的程度。美联储在疫情期间限制了股东回报，但在六月底取消了限制。六家最大的银行已经将第三季度的每股股息提高了40%，一些银行还宣布了新的回购计划，但更多细节可能会在收益报告中浮出水面。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d1ad9199f6668308fe22f4bfd30210\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Banks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年陷入困境，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年陷入困境，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 13:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.  The economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、高盛和其他大银行预计本周将公布第二季度大幅收益。对于美国最大的银行来说，经济复苏看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Major players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp; Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通(JPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp;Co.)和花旗集团(CitigroupInc.)等主要公司预计本周将公布第二季度利润增长，这与一年前相比发生了180度大转弯，当时它们正准备应对一波与Covid-19相关的贷款违约浪潮。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也存在障碍。例如，在疫情混乱中蓬勃发展的贸易业务正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo&amp; Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通JPM1.43%和高盛集团周二公布业绩，花旗集团、美国银行和富国银行周三公布业绩。摩根士丹利周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> A year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，银行正在储备数十亿美元为不良贷款做准备。但随着经济前景的好转，银行开始释放准备金，提高了盈利。Keefe，Bruyette&amp;Woods分析师表示，银行第二季度每股利润可能比去年同期高出40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8260467268cca273e41047edf0c891f8\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.</p><p><blockquote>然而，推动银行度过疫情的交易繁荣在第二季度并没有重演。花旗集团和摩根大通高管表示，交易收入将比一年前下降30%或更多。这可能相当于每家银行损失约10%的总收入。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>高盛分析师写道：“我们认为，今年夏天是正常化交易水平是否会高于大流行前的严峻考验。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302721437b14cdae7ae901829b12fc18\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Loan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>贷款需求一直不温不火，低利率抑制了银行放贷时的利润。该行业的净息差是衡量贷款盈利能力的关键指标，在第一季度触及历史低点，分析师预计第二季度也大致相同。</blockquote></p><p> Rising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”</p><p><blockquote>利率上升和贷款增加，特别是对消费者的贷款增加，将带来双重提振，但目前尚不清楚这两者何时会发生。Autonomous Research预测2021年大银行的净利息收入将下降，并指出高管们“最近一直在降低预期（但没有完全放弃希望）”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b4274104e83eeee3e4278c0d7eebf8\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>银行有足够的钱可以放贷——事实上，绰绰有余。许多公司仍在囤积现金，根据美联储的数据，美国商业银行现在有17万亿美元的存款。自2020年初以来，这一数字增长了近30%，即3.8万亿美元，相当于2001年的全部规模。</blockquote></p><p> The excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>多余的现金正在拖累利润率，因为银行从中赚取的收入并不多。巴克莱银行分析师估计，如果这些多余的现金能够以更好的利率投入使用，平均税前利润将增加5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539c1dcc796d5a3351a3c376748f8811\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.</p><p><blockquote>最大的银行在疫情最严重的时候出钱免除客户费用，并让员工在家工作。现在他们正试图收回开支。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席财务官保罗·多诺弗里奥(Paul Donofrio)在与分析师举行的第一季度财报电话会议上表示：“我们正处于一场大流行之中，大量新冠疫情支出比我们所有人的预期更加棘手，但他们会出来。这是毫无疑问的。”</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342037d2e14b034f8b8f0b55d6ec244f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&amp;P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>KBW纳斯达克银行指数在2021年上涨了27%，超过了标普500 16%的涨幅。银行股的涨势将在一定程度上取决于银行提高股息和回购股票的程度。美联储在疫情期间限制了股东回报，但在六月底取消了限制。六家最大的银行已经将第三季度的每股股息提高了40%，一些银行还宣布了新的回购计划，但更多细节可能会在收益报告中浮出水面。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d1ad9199f6668308fe22f4bfd30210\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-struggled-last-year-but-now-they-are-set-for-big-profits-11626082202?mod=markets_lead_pos6\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","GS":"高盛","WFC":"富国银行","MS":"摩根士丹利","C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-struggled-last-year-but-now-they-are-set-for-big-profits-11626082202?mod=markets_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175899084","content_text":"JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.\n\nThe economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.\nMajor players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%& Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.\nAt the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.\nJPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo& Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.\nA year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.\nHowever,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.\n“We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.\n\nLoan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.\nRising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”\n\nBanks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.\nThe excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.\n\nThe biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.\nBank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”\n\nThe KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GS":0.9,"WFC":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"C":0.9,"JPM":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":409,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142255968,"gmtCreate":1626155676954,"gmtModify":1631893338906,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142255968","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":579,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146544903,"gmtCreate":1626093781402,"gmtModify":1631893338919,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146544903","repostId":"1156961347","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156961347","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626091932,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1156961347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156961347","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to ","content":"<p>Futures tracking the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街前一交易日反弹至新高后，追踪道指和标普500指数的期货周一小幅走低，投资者等待第二季度财报季的开始和一批经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:10，道指e-mini下跌122点，跌幅0.35%，标普500 e-mini下跌7.5点，跌幅0.17%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨33.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31dda4d4d95330be5d71b8180102d4\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:10</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，摩根大通、高盛、美国银行和其他大银行将发布财报，市场参与者正在寻找有关经济和与增长相关的股票的早期线索。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>大型银行的股价在盘前交易中下跌0.9%至1.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter earnings for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，标普500公司第二季度盈利预计将增长65.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> — </b>Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>—</b>在首席执行官理查德·布兰森周日完成了期待已久的太空试飞后，这家航天公司的股价在盘前交易中上涨了9%。这是维珍银河迄今为止第一次搭载一名以上乘客的太空飞行。Branson还击败了Elon Musk和杰夫·贝索斯，成为第一位乘坐自己航天器的亿万富翁太空公司创始人。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">Cheesecake Factory</a></b> <b>—</b> The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">芝士蛋糕工厂</a></b><b>—</b>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)将该股评级从市场表现上调至跑赢大盘后，该餐厅股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。这家华尔街公司表示，市场低估了全方位服务餐厅的复苏。Cheesecake Factory股价在过去一个月下跌了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b> <b>— </b>Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特龙</a></b><b>—</b>该百货公司表示Sundayit已收购英国在线时装公司Asos旗下四个服装品牌的少数股权后，该百货公司股价小幅下跌。这些品牌——Topshop、Topman、Miss Selfridge和运动服品牌HIIT——瞄准了20多岁的年轻消费者。该交易的财务条款没有披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> — </b>Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday.&nbsp;Bank of America,&nbsp;Citigroup and&nbsp;Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>—</b>尽管预计本周将公布强劲的财报，但主要银行股仍全线走低。摩根大通下跌0.7%，高盛下跌0.5%，美国银行股价下跌0.8%。此次下跌是在债券收益率继续走低之际发生的。摩根大通和高盛将于周二盘前公布财报，拉开财报季的序幕。美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行将于周三公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a> —</b>Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a>—</b>周一盘前，与经济重新开放相关的股票小幅走软。美联航本月迄今下跌2.3%后，股价下跌超过1%。波音和达美航空均下跌约1%。嘉年华、挪威邮轮、皇家加勒比均跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-12 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.</p><p><blockquote>在华尔街前一交易日反弹至新高后，追踪道指和标普500指数的期货周一小幅走低，投资者等待第二季度财报季的开始和一批经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>截至美国东部时间上午8:10，道指e-mini下跌122点，跌幅0.35%，标普500 e-mini下跌7.5点，跌幅0.17%，纳斯达克100 e-mini上涨33.25点，跌幅0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31dda4d4d95330be5d71b8180102d4\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源自Tiger Trade，美国东部时间08:10</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，摩根大通、高盛、美国银行和其他大银行将发布财报，市场参与者正在寻找有关经济和与增长相关的股票的早期线索。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>大型银行的股价在盘前交易中下跌0.9%至1.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter earnings for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据Refinitiv的IBES数据，标普500公司第二季度盈利预计将增长65.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> — </b>Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>—</b>在首席执行官理查德·布兰森周日完成了期待已久的太空试飞后，这家航天公司的股价在盘前交易中上涨了9%。这是维珍银河迄今为止第一次搭载一名以上乘客的太空飞行。Branson还击败了Elon Musk和杰夫·贝索斯，成为第一位乘坐自己航天器的亿万富翁太空公司创始人。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">Cheesecake Factory</a></b> <b>—</b> The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">芝士蛋糕工厂</a></b><b>—</b>雷蒙德·詹姆斯(Raymond James)将该股评级从市场表现上调至跑赢大盘后，该餐厅股价在盘前交易中上涨超过1%。这家华尔街公司表示，市场低估了全方位服务餐厅的复苏。Cheesecake Factory股价在过去一个月下跌了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b> <b>— </b>Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特龙</a></b><b>—</b>该百货公司表示Sundayit已收购英国在线时装公司Asos旗下四个服装品牌的少数股权后，该百货公司股价小幅下跌。这些品牌——Topshop、Topman、Miss Selfridge和运动服品牌HIIT——瞄准了20多岁的年轻消费者。该交易的财务条款没有披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> — </b>Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday.&nbsp;Bank of America,&nbsp;Citigroup and&nbsp;Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>—</b>尽管预计本周将公布强劲的财报，但主要银行股仍全线走低。摩根大通下跌0.7%，高盛下跌0.5%，美国银行股价下跌0.8%。此次下跌是在债券收益率继续走低之际发生的。摩根大通和高盛将于周二盘前公布财报，拉开财报季的序幕。美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行将于周三公布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a> —</b>Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a>—</b>周一盘前，与经济重新开放相关的股票小幅走软。美联航本月迄今下跌2.3%后，股价下跌超过1%。波音和达美航空均下跌约1%。嘉年华、挪威邮轮、皇家加勒比均跌超1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"UAL":"联合大陆航空","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPCE":"维珍银河","JPM":"摩根大通","BAC":"美国银行",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CAKE":"芝乐坊餐馆","JWN":"诺德斯特龙",".DJI":"道琼斯"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156961347","content_text":"Futures tracking the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.\nAt 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10\nStarting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.\nShares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.\nSecond-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nVirgin Galactic — Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.\nCheesecake Factory — The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.\nNordstrom — Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.\nJPMorgan Chase ,Bank of America — Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday. Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.\nUnited Continental ,Carnival —Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CAKE":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"SPCE":0.9,"CCL":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"JWN":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":599,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146545620,"gmtCreate":1626093740060,"gmtModify":1631893338933,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146545620","repostId":"2150533205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":766,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146100726,"gmtCreate":1626056526365,"gmtModify":1631893338946,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146100726","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益将同比增长61%，这得益于基数效应、22%的销售增长和256个基点的净利润扩张至11.1%，尽管预计股票中位数每股收益将增长24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上季度一样，金融股预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占每股收益总额9美元中的3美元，超出了市场普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融股每股收益将增长116%，占标普500每股收益增长的25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继2020年和2021年第一季度的强劲增长之后，资本市场活动已经正常化。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三季度提振每股收益，并可能在年底前推动银行每股收益增长高达18%。</b>尽管由于发布是非经常性的，投资者不太可能直接奖励这些业绩，但分析师预计，市场将为盈利顺风和最近的CCAR结果可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一点值得注意：<b>虽然市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长61%，但预计该股的盈利中位数仅增长24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总收益的更大反弹很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者说2020年收益的更大幅度下降；2020年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中位数仅同比下降12%，而总收益下降了32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占市值的22%，占标普500 2021年第二季度每股收益的14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济严重萎缩，但这些公司的每股收益实际上平均增长了38%，预计2021年第二季度的盈利平均增长52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在第二季度财报季的预览中——<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔指数今年收盘价为4,300点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌-0.5%</b>-重点关注本财报季向管理层提出的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响商业前景？利率暴跌，高“质量”主题表现出色。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1.在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>标普500利润率在2021年第一季度创下11.9%的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍然关注远期利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，共同增加了全球企业的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了涨价问题，这种趋势可能会在第二季度财报中持续下去。或者，随着SG&amp;A占销售额的比例较历史有所上升，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的成本，并将实施成本削减和价格上涨的组合。</li><li><b>2.投资者已经开始奖励具有有吸引力的保证金状况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二重要驱动因素，仅次于股权久期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中性因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自6月初以来，其他“质量”因素，如资产负债表强劲与疲软以及资本回报率高与低，也有所走高。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3.随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率总额和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去18个月创纪录的公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管与历史相比，杠杆率仍然很高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500（不含金融）现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在2020年现金支出下降10%后，该行预测，高现金余额、低迷的收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动2021年现金支出增长19%（2.8万亿美元）和6%2022年（3万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、研发和现金并购）应占现金总支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及CCAR后金融界的过剩资本也应该会推动2021年回购反弹35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，美国<b>年初至今，企业已授权回购6270亿美元，是有记录以来第二快的回购速度</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在首选交易方面，Kostin重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020年实现利润率增长50+bp、预计未来两年每年利润率增长50+bp的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>该股2021年净利润率中位数为26%（标普500中位数为13%），预计到2022年利润率将增长306个基点（中位数为156个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向企业提出三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益将同比增长61%，这得益于基数效应、22%的销售增长和256个基点的净利润扩张至11.1%，尽管预计股票中位数每股收益将增长24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上季度一样，金融股预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占每股收益总额9美元中的3美元，超出了市场普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融股每股收益将增长116%，占标普500每股收益增长的25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继2020年和2021年第一季度的强劲增长之后，资本市场活动已经正常化。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三季度提振每股收益，并可能在年底前推动银行每股收益增长高达18%。</b>尽管由于发布是非经常性的，投资者不太可能直接奖励这些业绩，但分析师预计，市场将为盈利顺风和最近的CCAR结果可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一点值得注意：<b>虽然市场普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长61%，但预计该股的盈利中位数仅增长24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总收益的更大反弹很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者说2020年收益的更大幅度下降；2020年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中位数仅同比下降12%，而总收益下降了32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占市值的22%，占标普500 2021年第二季度每股收益的14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济严重萎缩，但这些公司的每股收益实际上平均增长了38%，预计2021年第二季度的盈利平均增长52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师David Kostin在第二季度财报季的预览中——<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔指数今年收盘价为4,300点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌-0.5%</b>-重点关注本财报季向管理层提出的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响商业前景？利率暴跌，高“质量”主题表现出色。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1.在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>标普500利润率在2021年第一季度创下11.9%的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍然关注远期利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，共同增加了全球企业的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了涨价问题，这种趋势可能会在第二季度财报中持续下去。或者，随着SG&amp;A占销售额的比例较历史有所上升，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的成本，并将实施成本削减和价格上涨的组合。</li><li><b>2.投资者已经开始奖励具有有吸引力的保证金状况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二重要驱动因素，仅次于股权久期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中性因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自6月初以来，其他“质量”因素，如资产负债表强劲与疲软以及资本回报率高与低，也有所走高。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3.随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率总额和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去18个月创纪录的公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管与历史相比，杠杆率仍然很高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500（不含金融）现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在2020年现金支出下降10%后，该行预测，高现金余额、低迷的收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动2021年现金支出增长19%（2.8万亿美元）和6%2022年（3万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、研发和现金并购）应占现金总支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及CCAR后金融界的过剩资本也应该会推动2021年回购反弹35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，美国<b>年初至今，企业已授权回购6270亿美元，是有记录以来第二快的回购速度</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在首选交易方面，Kostin重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020年实现利润率增长50+bp、预计未来两年每年利润率增长50+bp的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>该股2021年净利润率中位数为26%（标普500中位数为13%），预计到2022年利润率将增长306个基点（中位数为156个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SPY":"标普500ETF",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":459,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146377591,"gmtCreate":1626056474913,"gmtModify":1631893338984,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146377591","repostId":"1156003112","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":686,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148506821,"gmtCreate":1625984092163,"gmtModify":1631893338989,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148506821","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148508187,"gmtCreate":1625983996449,"gmtModify":1631893338999,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148508187","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>罗伯特·韦/iStock社论来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数字表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电动化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>罗伯特·韦/iStock社论来自盖蒂图片社</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的大幅增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在接下来的几个季度继续提高其营收业绩并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健增长的公司，如果您是动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，它生产一款名为G3的SUV和一款名为P7的轿车。此外，该公司计划在9月份发布一款名为G3i的SUV升级版，并在年底发布一款新的家庭友好型轿车P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间都跑赢了标普500指数，自我们6月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在提高交付量方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在6月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的6,565辆汽车，同比增长617%。此外，其第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，而第一季度交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到大流行的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超出了15,500-16,000辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这种势头很可能至少持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势是在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将其制造或销售外包到其他国家，因为它拥有巨大的当地市场可以销往国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同资助的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉建成第三家制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，2020年特斯拉(TSLA)在华仅售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，运力增加到如此可观的数字表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争并提高其在大陆的吸引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要事实是，小鹏在国内的技术比特斯拉等更先进。其近一半的研发人员从事自动驾驶软件工作，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在接下来的几年里成为首批达到5级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果最新版本的软件记得车辆所在的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库中。之前停过。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了其中的一些。首先，XPengTrade的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值计算，可以被认为估值很高。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合投资于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，潜在的中美贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所以双重主要上市结构进行了另一次IPO，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者能够通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务在外部市场没有重大敞口，潜在贸易战的影响将很小。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，但我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以肯定的是，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的推动增长空间，考虑到其第二季度的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测表明，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从2020财年的90万美元增长364%至2022财年的41.8亿美元，而其每股收益损失预计也将从21年第二季度的-0.33美元降至第三季度和第四季度的-0.06美元。除此之外，该公司截至第一季度末拥有51.2亿美元现金，长期债务仅为4.97亿美元，由于最近香港的发行，其流动性状况已达到70亿美元左右。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能需要通过发行新股来筹集新债务或稀释股东权益来为其扩张提供资金。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长股，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为交付量和产能可能会增加，以及未来几个月即将推出的P5轿车可能会推动其股票上涨更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的多头头寸。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏汽车-W","XPEV":"小鹏汽车"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"09868":0.9,"XPEV":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":450,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148501076,"gmtCreate":1625983932395,"gmtModify":1631893339017,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like.","listText":"Pls like.","text":"Pls like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148501076","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":148506821,"gmtCreate":1625984092163,"gmtModify":1631893338989,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148506821","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济蓬勃发展，盈利上升，美联储给予前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社，盖蒂图片社摄）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经大幅上涨17%，确实可能会出现回调。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于这六个原因，我们仍处于股市三到五年牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.有巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。总而言之，被压抑的私营部门需求将有助于推动美国今年的GDP增长达到8%，并在此后几年达到3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold Group首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释家庭需求的大幅上升。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未用完的储蓄，因为他们为疫情做好了准备。个人储蓄率接近GDP的16%，而战后的平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表显著改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。消费者将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量，因为就业和经济保持强劲，他们的信心增强。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会提高，这必然会促进经济增长。劳动参与率还有提高的空间，在我们达到可以限制经济增长的充分就业之前，留下了闲置的就业能力。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们看看企业被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听说的所有短缺的东西吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的疫情，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清理。但现在，企业不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司也削减了产能，并再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近23%。这创造了持续的增长，它告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>：我们今年将看到7%-8%的GDP增长，明年将达到4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平的增长，支持股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得如此之快，分析师们跟不上。分析师预计标普500今年的每股收益为190美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激通常需要六到八个月才能生效，最近的很多刺激都发生在这个窗口内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计，2021年标普500的盈利将更接近220美元，而不是普遍预期的190美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>保尔森表示：“分析师仍然低估了利润的改善程度以及将会改善多少。”“我们从政策官员那里得到了戏剧性的过度反应。他们解决了崩溃的问题，但在基本面上创造了巨大的改善。这在利润复苏方面仍在发挥作用。”</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出现。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.城里有一个新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通胀。在此过程中，央行扼杀了经济增长。这就是过去20年是战后经济增长最慢的原因之一。然而现在，美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的衡量标准来衡量这一点。以GDP增长减去10年期国债收益率MUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在1980年至2010年的大部分时间里都为负值，当时美联储保持增长降温以遏制通胀。但现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将10年期国债收益率保持在远低于GDP增长的水平，从而使经济过热。这就是1950-1965年的情况，一些分析家将其看涨期权为“资本主义的黄金时代”，因为增长的下滑路径。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4.通货膨胀不会杀死公牛</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通胀短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。这是一个综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。企业资本支出的繁荣将继续提高企业的生产率。这使他们能够避免将上升的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地制造商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>五、估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹的阶段，通常会出现以下动态。股市连续几个月横盘整理，主要是因为对通胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，压低了股票估值。在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中，这种动态大约在这一点上发挥了作用。简而言之，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升，而股市则标志着时间的到来，甚至是回调。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将降低股票估值，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在年底达到220美元，并且该指数因回调而达到4,000至4,100点，那么股票的市盈率将达到18-19倍，低于1990年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>与往常一样，道琼斯工业平均指数DJIA(+1.30%)和罗素2000小盘股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们重新进入横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6.情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一名逆向投资者，我将过度情绪视为是时候筹集一些现金的迹象。我们还没有看到这一点。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说从4点开始。另一方面，共同基金现金最近为4.6万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎态度。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来持续的经济复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性股票。</b>继续投资对经济敏感的企业，并在回调时增持这些企业。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果您想要收益，请选择支付股息但具有资本增值潜力的股票，而不是销售消费品等稳定增长的公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信Brush Up on Stocks（链接在下面的简介中）中，我最近建议或重申了零售业的家得宝、市场和投资银行名称B.Riley Financial以及消费者金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长率往往更高。小心中国。它的人口正在老龄化。劳动力增长有限可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的美中紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁导致全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":631,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148501076,"gmtCreate":1625983932395,"gmtModify":1631893339017,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Pls like.","listText":"Pls like.","text":"Pls like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148501076","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":652,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143649625,"gmtCreate":1625793472167,"gmtModify":1633937284775,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.pls like","listText":"nice.pls like","text":"nice.pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143649625","repostId":"1148778859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":344,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143657630,"gmtCreate":1625793346920,"gmtModify":1633937286777,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143657630","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":362,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154453662,"gmtCreate":1625540710456,"gmtModify":1633939822736,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154453662","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":304,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154197660,"gmtCreate":1625487592350,"gmtModify":1633940276251,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154197660","repostId":"1155435134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155435134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625483300,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1155435134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 19:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155435134","media":"investopedia","summary":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the","content":"<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。四季度将于三月份结束，即第一季度；六月，或第二季度；九月，或第三季度；以及12月，或第四季度。对于投资者来说，这被认为是重要的时期。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据来证实这种做法或其普遍性，但这个想法强化了一个季度末意义重大的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少像在季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合中的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望自己的投资组合由50%的成长型股票、25%的收益型股票和25%的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益型股票和债券，以使投资组合回到50-25-25的分割。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于投资者来说，被称为财务季度的三个月结束被认为是一个重要的时间。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和重新平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高价卖出来交易表现良好资产的收益，以换取更多表现不佳的资产。从理论上讲，这有助于保护投资组合不会暴露太多或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将再平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于任意的日历事件，这些事件可能与市场走势不一致。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇合通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>考虑在季度末调整投资组合的不仅仅是个人投资者。投资组合管理对于机构投资者也很重要，例如共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动型和被动型。4被动型基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。对于这些类型的基金来说，季度末并不那么重要，尽管如果它们的基准指数此时发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金有一位经理或经理团队，他们采取更积极的方法来击败市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前制定的目标和策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 19:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。四季度将于三月份结束，即第一季度；六月，或第二季度；九月，或第三季度；以及12月，或第四季度。对于投资者来说，这被认为是重要的时期。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据来证实这种做法或其普遍性，但这个想法强化了一个季度末意义重大的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少像在季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合中的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望自己的投资组合由50%的成长型股票、25%的收益型股票和25%的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益型股票和债券，以使投资组合回到50-25-25的分割。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>关键要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>对于投资者来说，被称为财务季度的三个月结束被认为是一个重要的时间。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和重新平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高价卖出来交易表现良好资产的收益，以换取更多表现不佳的资产。从理论上讲，这有助于保护投资组合不会暴露太多或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将再平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于任意的日历事件，这些事件可能与市场走势不一致。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇合通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>考虑在季度末调整投资组合的不仅仅是个人投资者。投资组合管理对于机构投资者也很重要，例如共同基金和交易所交易基金(ETF)。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动型和被动型。4被动型基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。对于这些类型的基金来说，季度末并不那么重要，尽管如果它们的基准指数此时发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金有一位经理或经理团队，他们采取更积极的方法来击败市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前制定的目标和策略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral\">investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155435134","content_text":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.\nThere's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.\nEven if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.\nRebalancing a Portfolio\nRebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nThe end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.\nCompanies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.\nBoth retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.\n\nTraditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.\nInstitutional Investors and Rebalancing\nIt is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3\nThere are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.\nActive funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":221,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890285890,"gmtCreate":1628120175410,"gmtModify":1631891079100,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890285890","repostId":"2157483930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2234,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177436549,"gmtCreate":1627256953281,"gmtModify":1631891079112,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177436549","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2088,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148935549,"gmtCreate":1625912835181,"gmtModify":1633936146658,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148935549","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":176,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149472663,"gmtCreate":1625746499152,"gmtModify":1633937794640,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":2,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149472663","repostId":"2149341569","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":323,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}