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2021-08-06

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2021-08-05

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2021-07-29

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2021-07-27

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-26

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2021-07-22

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2021-07-21

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BRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc 报告季度每股收益为 2.97 美元</blockquote>

2021-07-21

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2021-07-20

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2021-07-17

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2021-07-13

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Banks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年举步维艰，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote>

2021-07-13

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2021-07-12

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Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>

2021-07-12

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2021-07-12

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Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>

2021-07-12

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2021-07-11

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The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>

2021-07-11

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XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote>

2021-07-11

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brings you the latest news from around the world, covering breaking news in markets, business, politics, entertainment and technology","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Reuters","id":"1036604489","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868"},"pubTimestamp":1626812711,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2153692165?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-21 04:25","market":"us","language":"en","title":"BRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc 报告季度每股收益为 2.97 美元</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2153692165","media":"Reuters","summary":"July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHAR","content":"<p><html><body>July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :</p><p><blockquote><html><body>7 月 20 日（路透社） - Netflix 公司：</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97</p><p><blockquote>* 季度每股收益 $2.97</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度每股收益为 2.55 美元</blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*季度流媒体净增154万</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度收入为 74.77 亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度流媒体净增 350 万</blockquote></p><p>   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER</p><p><blockquote>*本季度，亚太地区约占全球付费净增加的三分之二</blockquote></p><p>   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>* 第二季度每股收益为 3.16 美元，收入为 73.2 亿美元 -- REFINITIV IBES 数据</blockquote></p><p>   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>* 第三季度每股收益为 2.17 美元，收入为 74.8 亿美元 -- REFINITIV IBES 数据</blockquote></p><p>   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA</p><p><blockquote>* 最近将我们的低成本移动套餐扩展到东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的另外78个国家</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 认为 UCAN 会员基础庞大，且季节性收购季度较小，是 UCAN 付费会员数量较第一季度下降的主要原因</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 预计全年内容摊销额约为 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 游戏将包含在会员的 NETFLIX 订阅中，与电影和剧集类似，无需额外付费</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将很长一段时间</blockquote></p><p>   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”</p><p><blockquote>* 虽然我们不断评估机会，但我们并不认为任何资产是 “必备资产”。</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 发现仅移动设备计划是向更多消费者介绍 NETFLIX 的有效方式，同时大致保持收入中性</blockquote></p><p>   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPON</p><p><blockquote>* 尚未发现任何足以令人信服采取行动的大规模资产</blockquote></p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p><blockquote>Eikon 的源文本：进一步的公司报道：</blockquote></p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>BRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc 报告季度每股收益为 2.97 美元</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBRIEF-Netflix Inc Reports Qtrly Earnings Per Share Of $2.97<blockquote>简报-Netflix Inc 报告季度每股收益为 2.97 美元</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1036604489\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/443ce19704621c837795676028cec868);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Reuters </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-21 04:25</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><html><body>July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :</p><p><blockquote><html><body>7 月 20 日（路透社） - Netflix 公司：</body></html></blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97</p><p><blockquote>* 季度每股收益 $2.97</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度每股收益为 2.55 美元</blockquote></p><p>   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>*季度流媒体净增154万</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度收入为 74.77 亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION</p><p><blockquote>* 预计第三季度流媒体净增 350 万</blockquote></p><p>   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER</p><p><blockquote>*本季度，亚太地区约占全球付费净增加的三分之二</blockquote></p><p>   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>* 第二季度每股收益为 3.16 美元，收入为 73.2 亿美元 -- REFINITIV IBES 数据</blockquote></p><p>   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA</p><p><blockquote>* 第三季度每股收益为 2.17 美元，收入为 74.8 亿美元 -- REFINITIV IBES 数据</blockquote></p><p>   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA</p><p><blockquote>* 最近将我们的低成本移动套餐扩展到东南亚和撒哈拉以南非洲的另外78个国家</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 认为 UCAN 会员基础庞大，且季节性收购季度较小，是 UCAN 付费会员数量较第一季度下降的主要原因</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 预计全年内容摊销额约为 120 亿美元</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 游戏将包含在会员的 NETFLIX 订阅中，与电影和剧集类似，无需额外付费</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 预计我们所有现有内容类别的投资和增长将很长一段时间</blockquote></p><p>   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”</p><p><blockquote>* 虽然我们不断评估机会，但我们并不认为任何资产是 “必备资产”。</blockquote></p><p>   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL</p><p><blockquote>* NETFLIX - 发现仅移动设备计划是向更多消费者介绍 NETFLIX 的有效方式，同时大致保持收入中性</blockquote></p><p>   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPON</p><p><blockquote>* 尚未发现任何足以令人信服采取行动的大规模资产</blockquote></p><p>Source text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:   </p><p><blockquote>Eikon 的源文本：进一步的公司报道：</blockquote></p><p> ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</p><p><blockquote>((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))</blockquote></p><p></body></html></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"LABP":"Landos Biopharma, Inc.","LHDX":"Lucira Health, Inc.","CGEM":"Cullinan Therapeutics","SANA":"Sana Biotechnology, Inc.","NFLX":"奈飞"},"source_url":"http://api.rkd.refinitiv.com/api/News/News.svc/REST/News_1/RetrieveStoryML_1","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2153692165","content_text":"July 20 (Reuters) - Netflix Inc   :   * QTRLY EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.97   * SEES Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE $2.55   * QTRLY STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 1.54 MILLION   * SEES Q3 REVENUE $7,477 MILLION   * SEES Q3 STREAMING NET ADDITIONS 3.5 MILLION   * APAC REGION REPRESENTED ABOUT TWO-THIRDS OF OUR GLOBAL PAID NET ADDS IN THE QUARTER   * Q2 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $3.16, REVENUE VIEW $7.32 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA   * Q3 EARNINGS PER SHARE VIEW $2.17, REVENUE VIEW $7.48 BILLION -- REFINITIV IBES DATA   * RECENTLY EXPANDED OUR LOW-COST MOBILE-ONLY PLAN TO AN ADDITIONAL 78 COUNTRIES ACROSS SOUTH EAST ASIA AND SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA   * NETFLIX - BELIEVE LARGE MEMBERSHIP BASE IN UCAN, WITH SEASONALLY SMALLER QUARTER FOR ACQUISITION IS MAIN REASON FOR PAID UCAN MEMBERSHIPS BEING DOWN VERSUS Q1   * NETFLIX - EXPECT CONTENT AMORTIZATION TO BE AROUND $12 BILLION FOR THE FULL YEAR   * NETFLIX - GAMES WILL BE INCLUDED IN MEMBERS’ NETFLIX SUBSCRIPTION AT NO ADDITIONAL COST SIMILAR TO FILMS AND SERIES   * NETFLIX - EXPECT A LONG RUNWAY OF INCREASING INVESTMENT AND GROWTH ACROSS ALL OF OUR EXISTING CONTENT CATEGORIES   * WHILE WE ARE CONTINUALLY EVALUATING OPPORTUNITIES, WE DON’T VIEW ANY ASSETS AS “MUST-HAVE”   * NETFLIX - FOUND THAT THE MOBILE ONLY PLAN HAS BEEN AN EFFECTIVE WAY TO INTRODUCE MORE CONSUMERS TO NETFLIX WHILE BEING ROUGHLY REVENUE NEUTRAL   * HAVEN’T YET FOUND ANY LARGE SCALE ASSETS TO BE SUFFICIENTLY COMPELLING TO ACT UPONSource text for Eikon:   Further company coverage:    ((Reuters.Briefs@thomsonreuters.com;))","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"CGEM":1,"LABP":1,"SANA":1,"LHDX":1,"NFLX":0.9,"APR":1}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4397,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":178264576,"gmtCreate":1626824283395,"gmtModify":1631891079118,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/178264576","repostId":"2153692050","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3033,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":171417409,"gmtCreate":1626756103001,"gmtModify":1631891079122,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/171417409","repostId":"2152992651","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2669,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":179883512,"gmtCreate":1626502756036,"gmtModify":1631893338883,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/179883512","repostId":"2152683392","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":836,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142255859,"gmtCreate":1626155741671,"gmtModify":1631893338892,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142255859","repostId":"1175899084","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1175899084","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626155018,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1175899084?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-13 13:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Banks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年举步维艰，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1175899084","media":"The Wall Street Journal","summary":"JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this w","content":"<p>  JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.  The economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、高盛和其他大银行预计本周将公布第二季度大幅收益。对于美国最大的银行来说，经济复苏看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Major players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp; Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通 (JPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp;Co.) 和花旗集团 (CitigroupINC.C1.45%) 等主要参与者预计将于本周公布第二季度利润增长，与一年前相比发生了180度大转弯，当时他们正准备应对一波与 Covid-19 相关的贷款违约。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也存在障碍。例如，在疫情混乱中蓬勃发展的贸易业务正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo&amp; Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通JPM1.43%和高盛集团周二公布业绩，花旗集团、美国银行和富国银行周三公布业绩。摩根士丹利周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> A year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，银行正在囤积数十亿美元，为不良贷款做准备。但随着经济前景的好转，银行已经开始释放准备金，从而提高了盈利。Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods 分析师表示，银行第二季度每股利润可能比去年同期高出 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8260467268cca273e41047edf0c891f8\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.</p><p><blockquote>然而，推动银行度过大流行病的交易热潮并没有在第二季度重演。花旗集团和摩根大通高管表示，与一年前相比，交易收入将下降 30% 或更多。这可能相当于每家银行总收入的损失约 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛分析师写道：”我们认为，今年夏天将是对正常化交易水平是否会高于大流行前的一次严峻考验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302721437b14cdae7ae901829b12fc18\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Loan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>贷款需求一直不温不火，低利率抑制了银行放贷时的利润。作为衡量贷款盈利能力的关键指标，该行业的净息差在第一季度创下历史新低，分析师预计第二季度也将大致相同。</blockquote></p><p> Rising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”</p><p><blockquote>利率上升和贷款增加（尤其是对消费者的贷款）将带来双重提振，但目前尚不清楚这两种情况何时会发生。Autonomous Research 预测大银行 2021 年净利息收入将下降，并指出高管们 “最近一直在降低预期（但没有完全放弃希望）”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b4274104e83eeee3e4278c0d7eebf8\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>银行有足够的钱可以放贷——事实上，绰绰有余。根据美联储的数据，许多公司仍在囤积现金，目前美国商业银行有 17 万亿美元的存款。自 2020 年初以来，这一数字增长了近 30%，即 3.8 万亿美元，相当于 2001 年整个资金的规模。</blockquote></p><p> The excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>过剩的现金拖累了利润率，因为银行从中赚的钱并不多。巴克莱银行 (Barclays PLC) 分析师估计，如果多余现金能够以更好的利率投入使用，平均税前利润将增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539c1dcc796d5a3351a3c376748f8811\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情最严重的时候，最大的银行斥资免除客户费用，并让员工在家工作。现在他们正试图收回开支。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席财务官保罗-多诺弗里奥（Paul Donofrio）在与分析师举行的第一季度财报电话会议上说： “我们正处于大流行病之中，Covid 的大量支出比我们预想的要粘一些，但它们终将到来。这是毫无疑问的”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342037d2e14b034f8b8f0b55d6ec244f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&amp;P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>KBW 纳斯达克银行指数在 2021 年上涨了 27%，超过了标普500 16% 的涨幅。银行股的涨势将在一定程度上取决于银行提高股息和回购股票的程度。美联储在疫情期间限制了股东回报，但在 6 月底取消了限制。六家最大的银行已经将第三季度的每股股息提高了40%，一些银行还宣布了新的回购计划，但更多细节可能会在收益报告中浮出水面。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d1ad9199f6668308fe22f4bfd30210\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Banks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年举步维艰，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBanks Struggled Last Year, but Now They Are Set for Big Profits<blockquote>银行去年举步维艰，但现在它们将获得巨额利润</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">The Wall Street Journal</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-13 13:43</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.  The economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通、高盛和其他大银行预计本周将公布第二季度大幅收益。对于美国最大的银行来说，经济复苏看起来不错。</blockquote></p><p> Major players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp; Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通 (JPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%&amp;Co.) 和花旗集团 (CitigroupINC.C1.45%) 等主要参与者预计将于本周公布第二季度利润增长，与一年前相比发生了180度大转弯，当时他们正准备应对一波与 Covid-19 相关的贷款违约。</blockquote></p><p> At the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，也存在障碍。例如，在疫情混乱中蓬勃发展的贸易业务正在放缓。</blockquote></p><p> JPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo&amp; Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.</p><p><blockquote>摩根大通JPM1.43%和高盛集团周二公布业绩，花旗集团、美国银行和富国银行周三公布业绩。摩根士丹利周四公布业绩。</blockquote></p><p> A year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，银行正在囤积数十亿美元，为不良贷款做准备。但随着经济前景的好转，银行已经开始释放准备金，从而提高了盈利。Keefe, Bruyette &amp; Woods 分析师表示，银行第二季度每股利润可能比去年同期高出 40%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8260467268cca273e41047edf0c891f8\" tg-width=\"741\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">However,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.</p><p><blockquote>然而，推动银行度过大流行病的交易热潮并没有在第二季度重演。花旗集团和摩根大通高管表示，与一年前相比，交易收入将下降 30% 或更多。这可能相当于每家银行总收入的损失约 10%。</blockquote></p><p> “We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.</p><p><blockquote>“高盛分析师写道：”我们认为，今年夏天将是对正常化交易水平是否会高于大流行前的一次严峻考验。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/302721437b14cdae7ae901829b12fc18\" tg-width=\"731\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Loan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>贷款需求一直不温不火，低利率抑制了银行放贷时的利润。作为衡量贷款盈利能力的关键指标，该行业的净息差在第一季度创下历史新低，分析师预计第二季度也将大致相同。</blockquote></p><p> Rising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”</p><p><blockquote>利率上升和贷款增加（尤其是对消费者的贷款）将带来双重提振，但目前尚不清楚这两种情况何时会发生。Autonomous Research 预测大银行 2021 年净利息收入将下降，并指出高管们 “最近一直在降低预期（但没有完全放弃希望）”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/84b4274104e83eeee3e4278c0d7eebf8\" tg-width=\"737\" tg-height=\"514\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> Banks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.</p><p><blockquote>银行有足够的钱可以放贷——事实上，绰绰有余。根据美联储的数据，许多公司仍在囤积现金，目前美国商业银行有 17 万亿美元的存款。自 2020 年初以来，这一数字增长了近 30%，即 3.8 万亿美元，相当于 2001 年整个资金的规模。</blockquote></p><p> The excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.</p><p><blockquote>过剩的现金拖累了利润率，因为银行从中赚的钱并不多。巴克莱银行 (Barclays PLC) 分析师估计，如果多余现金能够以更好的利率投入使用，平均税前利润将增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/539c1dcc796d5a3351a3c376748f8811\" tg-width=\"740\" tg-height=\"519\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.</p><p><blockquote>在疫情最严重的时候，最大的银行斥资免除客户费用，并让员工在家工作。现在他们正试图收回开支。</blockquote></p><p> Bank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”</p><p><blockquote>美国银行首席财务官保罗-多诺弗里奥（Paul Donofrio）在与分析师举行的第一季度财报电话会议上说： “我们正处于大流行病之中，Covid 的大量支出比我们预想的要粘一些，但它们终将到来。这是毫无疑问的”。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/342037d2e14b034f8b8f0b55d6ec244f\" tg-width=\"758\" tg-height=\"525\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&amp;P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.</p><p><blockquote>KBW 纳斯达克银行指数在 2021 年上涨了 27%，超过了标普500 16% 的涨幅。银行股的涨势将在一定程度上取决于银行提高股息和回购股票的程度。美联储在疫情期间限制了股东回报，但在 6 月底取消了限制。六家最大的银行已经将第三季度的每股股息提高了40%，一些银行还宣布了新的回购计划，但更多细节可能会在收益报告中浮出水面。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/18d1ad9199f6668308fe22f4bfd30210\" tg-width=\"746\" tg-height=\"512\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-struggled-last-year-but-now-they-are-set-for-big-profits-11626082202?mod=markets_lead_pos6\">The Wall Street Journal</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MS":"摩根士丹利","GS":"高盛","BAC":"美国银行","JPM":"摩根大通","WFC":"富国银行","C":"花旗"},"source_url":"https://www.wsj.com/articles/banks-struggled-last-year-but-now-they-are-set-for-big-profits-11626082202?mod=markets_lead_pos6","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1175899084","content_text":"JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs and other big banks are expected to report large second-quarter gains this week.\n\nThe economic recovery is looking good for the biggest U.S. banks.\nMajor players such asJPMorgan ChaseJPM1.43%& Co. andCitigroupInc.C1.45%are expected this week to report second-quarter profit gains, a U-turn from a year ago when they were girding for a wave of Covid-19-related loan defaults.\nAt the same time, there are obstacles. For example, the trading businesses that thrived in the chaos of the pandemic are slowing down.\nJPMorganJPM1.43%andGoldman Sachs GroupInc.report results Tuesday, followed by Citigroup,Bank of AmericaCorp.andWells Fargo& Co. on Wednesday.Morgan Stanleyreleases results on Thursday.\nA year ago, banks were socking away billions of dollars to prepare for soured loans. But as the economic outlook has brightened,banks have started releasing reserves, boosting their earnings. Banks could report second-quarter per-share profits that are 40% higher than the same period a year ago, according to analysts at Keefe, Bruyette & Woods.\nHowever,the trading boom that powered banksthrough the pandemic wasn’t repeated in the second quarter. Citigroup and JPMorgan executives have said trading revenues would be down 30% or more compared with a year ago. That could amount to losing about 10% of total revenue at each bank.\n“We believe that this summer represents the acid test for whether normalized trading levels will be higher than pre-pandemic,” Goldman analysts wrote.\n\nLoan demand has been tepid, and low interest rates have dampened the profits that banks can make when they do lend. The industry’s net-interest margin, a key measure of lending profitability, hit a historic low in the first quarter, and analysts expect roughly the same for the second quarter.\nRising interest rates andincreased lending, particularly to consumers, would provide a double-barreled lift, but it is still unclear when either will happen. Autonomous Research is predicting 2021 net-interest income declines at the big banks, noting executives “have recently been moderating their expectations (without completely giving up hope).”\n\nBanks have plenty of money to lend—more than enough, in fact. Many companies are still hoarding cash, and there is now $17 trillion in deposits at U.S. commercial banks, according to data from the Federal Reserve. That is up nearly 30% since the start of 2020, or $3.8 trillion, equal to the size of the whole pot in 2001.\nThe excess cash is dragging down margins because banks aren’t earning much on it. Barclays PLC analysts estimate average pretax profits would be 5% higher if that excess cash could be put to work at better interest rates.\n\nThe biggest banks shelled out money during the depths of the pandemic to waive customer fees and get employees set up to work from home. Now they are trying to reel expenses back in.\nBank of America Chief Financial Officer Paul Donofrio said on thefirst-quarter earnings callwith analysts: “We’re sitting here in the middle of a pandemic with a lot of Covid expenses that have been a little bit more sticky than we had all hoped, but they’re going to come out. There’s no question about that.”\n\nThe KBW Nasdaq Bank Index has risen 27% in 2021, topping the S&P 500’s 16% increase. Where the bank-stock rally goes from here will depend partly on how much banks lift their dividends and buy back their shares. The Fed had limited shareholder returns during the pandemic, butremoved restrictionsat the end of June. The six biggest bankscollectively have already raised their per-share dividends40% for the third quarter and some announced new buyback programs, but additional details may surface in earnings reports.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"C":0.9,"GS":0.9,"JPM":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"MS":0.9,"WFC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":609,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":142255968,"gmtCreate":1626155676954,"gmtModify":1631893338906,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/142255968","repostId":"1101566017","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":874,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146544903,"gmtCreate":1626093781402,"gmtModify":1631893338919,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146544903","repostId":"1156961347","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1156961347","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1626091932,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1156961347?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 20:12","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1156961347","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Futures tracking the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to ","content":"<p>Futures tracking the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.</p><p><blockquote>跟踪道琼斯指数和标普500指数的期货周一小幅走低，此前华尔街在前一交易日反弹至新高，投资者正在等待第二季度财报季的开始和一批经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:10，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 122 点，跌幅 0.35%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 7.5 点，跌幅 0.17%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 33.25 点，跌幅 0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31dda4d4d95330be5d71b8180102d4\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:10</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，摩根大通、高盛、美国银行和其他大银行将发布财报，市场参与者正在寻找有关经济和与增长相关的股票的早期线索。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>这家大型银行的股价在盘前交易中下跌了 0.9% 至 1.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter earnings for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Refinitiv 的 IBES 数据，标普500公司第二季度盈利预计将增长 65.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> — </b>Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>—</b>首席执行官理查德·布兰森 (Richard Branson) 周日完成期待已久的太空试飞后，这家航天公司的股价在盘前交易中上涨了 9%。这是维珍银河迄今为止首次载有一名以上乘客的太空飞行。布兰森还成为亿万富翁航天公司创始人中第一位驾驶自己的航天器的人，击败了埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝索斯。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">Cheesecake Factory</a></b> <b>—</b> The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">芝士蛋糕厂</a></b><b>—</b>在雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 将该餐厅股票从大盘上调至跑赢大盘后，该餐厅股票在盘前交易中上涨超过 1%。这家华尔街公司表示，市场低估了全方位服务餐厅的回归。芝士蛋糕工厂的股价在过去一个月下跌了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b> <b>— </b>Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特伦</a></b><b>—</b>在该公司表示 Sundayit 已收购英国在线时尚品牌 Asos 旗下四个服装品牌的少数股权后，该百货公司股价小幅下跌。这些品牌——Topshop、Topman、Miss Selfridge 和运动服装品牌 HIIT——的目标客户是 20 多岁的年轻消费者。交易的财务条款没有披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> — </b>Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday.&nbsp;Bank of America,&nbsp;Citigroup and&nbsp;Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>—</b>尽管预计本周将公布强劲的财报，但主要银行股全线走低。摩根大通下跌0.7%，高盛下跌0.5%，美国银行股价下跌0.8%。债券收益率持续走低，导致债券收益率下跌。摩根大通和高盛将于周二收盘前公布财报季。美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行将于周三发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a> —</b>Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a>—</b>周一盘前，与经济重新开放相关的股票略有走弱。美联航本月迄今下跌 2.3%，股价下跌超过 1%。波音和达美航空公司的股价均下跌约 1%。嘉年华、挪威邮轮和皇家加勒比均下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Toplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nToplines Before US Market Open on Monday<blockquote>周一美国市场开盘前的顶线</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-07-12 20:12</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Futures tracking the Dow and the S&amp;P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.</p><p><blockquote>跟踪道琼斯指数和标普500指数的期货周一小幅走低，此前华尔街在前一交易日反弹至新高，投资者正在等待第二季度财报季的开始和一批经济数据。</blockquote></p><p> At 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&amp;P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.</p><p><blockquote>美国东部时间上午 8:10，道琼斯电子迷你指数下跌 122 点，跌幅 0.35%，标普500电子迷你指数下跌 7.5 点，跌幅 0.17%，纳斯达克 100 电子迷你指数上涨 33.25 点，跌幅 0.22%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ac31dda4d4d95330be5d71b8180102d4\" tg-width=\"810\" tg-height=\"265\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><span>*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>*来源：Tiger Trade，美国东部时间 08:10</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Starting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.</p><p><blockquote>从周二开始，摩根大通、高盛、美国银行和其他大银行将发布财报，市场参与者正在寻找有关经济和与增长相关的股票的早期线索。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.</p><p><blockquote>这家大型银行的股价在盘前交易中下跌了 0.9% 至 1.0%。</blockquote></p><p> Second-quarter earnings for S&amp;P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.</p><p><blockquote>根据 Refinitiv 的 IBES 数据，标普500公司第二季度盈利预计将增长 65.8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Stocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盘前涨幅最大的股票：</b></blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">Virgin Galactic</a> — </b>Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SPCE\">维珍银河</a>—</b>首席执行官理查德·布兰森 (Richard Branson) 周日完成期待已久的太空试飞后，这家航天公司的股价在盘前交易中上涨了 9%。这是维珍银河迄今为止首次载有一名以上乘客的太空飞行。布兰森还成为亿万富翁航天公司创始人中第一位驾驶自己的航天器的人，击败了埃隆·马斯克和杰夫·贝索斯。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">Cheesecake Factory</a></b> <b>—</b> The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CAKE\">芝士蛋糕厂</a></b><b>—</b>在雷蒙德·詹姆斯 (Raymond James) 将该餐厅股票从大盘上调至跑赢大盘后，该餐厅股票在盘前交易中上涨超过 1%。这家华尔街公司表示，市场低估了全方位服务餐厅的回归。芝士蛋糕工厂的股价在过去一个月下跌了约8%。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">Nordstrom</a></b> <b>— </b>Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JWN\">诺德斯特伦</a></b><b>—</b>在该公司表示 Sundayit 已收购英国在线时尚品牌 Asos 旗下四个服装品牌的少数股权后，该百货公司股价小幅下跌。这些品牌——Topshop、Topman、Miss Selfridge 和运动服装品牌 HIIT——的目标客户是 20 多岁的年轻消费者。交易的财务条款没有披露。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> — </b>Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and&nbsp;Goldman Sachs&nbsp;kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday.&nbsp;Bank of America,&nbsp;Citigroup and&nbsp;Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>—</b>尽管预计本周将公布强劲的财报，但主要银行股全线走低。摩根大通下跌0.7%，高盛下跌0.5%，美国银行股价下跌0.8%。债券收益率持续走低，导致债券收益率下跌。摩根大通和高盛将于周二收盘前公布财报季。美国银行、花旗集团和富国银行将于周三发布财报。</blockquote></p><p> <b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b> <b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">Carnival</a> —</b>Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.</p><p><blockquote><b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/UAL\">United Continental</a></b><b>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CCL\">狂欢节</a>—</b>周一盘前，与经济重新开放相关的股票略有走弱。美联航本月迄今下跌 2.3%，股价下跌超过 1%。波音和达美航空公司的股价均下跌约 1%。嘉年华、挪威邮轮和皇家加勒比均下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯","SPCE":"维珍银河","BAC":"美国银行","JWN":"诺德斯特龙",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","UAL":"联合大陆航空","CCL":"嘉年华邮轮",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","CAKE":"芝乐坊餐馆","JPM":"摩根大通"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1156961347","content_text":"Futures tracking the Dow and the S&P 500 indexes edged lower on Monday after Wall Street rallied to new peaks in the previous session, with investors awaiting the start of the second-quarter earning season and a batch of economic data.\nAt 8:10 a.m. ET, Dow E-minis were down 122 points, or 0.35%, S&P 500 E-minis were down 7.5 points, or 0.17% and Nasdaq 100 E-minis were up 33.25 points, or 0.22%.\n*Source From Tiger Trade, EST 08:10\nStarting Tuesday, earnings reports are due from JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other big banks, with market participants looking for early clues on the economy and stocks tied to growth.\nShares of the big lenders fell between 0.9% and 1.0% in premarket trading.\nSecond-quarter earnings for S&P 500 companies are expected to rise 65.8%, according to IBES data from Refinitiv.\nStocks making the biggest moves in the premarket:\nVirgin Galactic — Shares of the space company jumped 9% in premarket trading after CEO Richard Branson completed a long-awaited test flight to space on Sunday.It was the first spaceflight to date for Virgin Galactic carrying more than one passenger. Branson also became the first of the billionaire space company founders to ride his own spacecraft, beating Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos.\nCheesecake Factory — The restaurant stock climbed more than 1% in premarket trading after Raymond Jamesupgraded the shares to outperform from market perform. The Wall Street firm said the market is underestimating the comeback for full-service restaurants. Cheesecake Factory shares have fallen about 8% in the past month.\nNordstrom — Shares of the department store dipped slightly after the company said Sundayit has acquired a minority stakein four apparel brands owned by the online U.K. fashion house Asos. The brands — Topshop, Topman, Miss Selfridge and the activewear label HIIT — target younger consumers in their 20s. Financial terms of the deal weren't disclosed.\nJPMorgan Chase ,Bank of America — Major bank stocks traded lower across the board despite expectations for strong earnings reports this week. JPMorgan dipped 0.7%, while Goldman Sachs fell 0.5% and Bank of America shares traded 0.8% lower. The decline came as bond yields continued to drift lower. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs kick off earnings season with results due out before the bell on Tuesday. Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo report on Wednesday.\nUnited Continental ,Carnival —Shares tied to the economic reopening were slightly weaker in premarket Monday. United Airline fell more than 1% after losing 2.3% month to date. Boeing and Delta Air Line both traded about 1% lower. Carnival, Norwegian Cruise Line and Royal Caribbean all fell over 1%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPCE":0.9,"UAL":0.9,"JWN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"BAC":0.9,"CAKE":0.9,"CCL":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"JPM":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":775,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146545620,"gmtCreate":1626093740060,"gmtModify":1631893338933,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146545620","repostId":"2150533205","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":935,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146100726,"gmtCreate":1626056526365,"gmtModify":1631893338946,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146100726","repostId":"1129204116","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1129204116","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1626053358,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1129204116?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-12 09:29","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Goldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1129204116","media":"zerohedge","summary":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus","content":"<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nGoldman Has Three Questions For Companies During Q2 Earnings Season<blockquote>高盛在第二季度财报季向公司提出了三个问题</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-12 09:29</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&amp;P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.</p><p><blockquote>第二季度财报季将于下周拉开帷幕，届时各大银行将照常发布财报，市场普遍预计第二季度每股收益同比增长 61%，这得益于基数效应、22% 的销售增长和 256 个基点的净利润率扩张至 11.1%，尽管预计股票中值每股收益将增长较为温和的 24%。相比之下，一年前，由于疫情引发严重衰退，标普500每股收益下降了 32%。周期性工业、非必需消费品和材料行业预计将引领该指数的每股收益增长。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/97d96a80eab68f78b39d83abd789745e\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"336\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> In 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.</p><p><blockquote>2020年第二季度，布伦特原油平均交易价格为33美元/桶，能源股出现总净亏损。第二季度油价平均为69美元/桶，能源公司预计将恢复盈利。</blockquote></p><p> Like last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.<b>Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&amp;P 500 EPS growth.</b>Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,<b>large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.</b>Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.</p><p><blockquote>与上一季度一样，金融业预计将成为标普500每股收益增长的主要驱动力。第一季度，金融股占 9 美元每股收益总额的 3 美元，超出了普遍预期。<b>预计第二季度金融每股收益将增长 116%，占标普500每股收益增长的 25%。</b>大多数银行分析师预计，在调整准备金释放后，业绩将基本符合共识。继 2020 年和 2021 年第一季度的强劲势头之后，资本市场活动已恢复正常。然而，<b>大量准备金释放将连续第三个季度提振每股收益，并可能推动银行到年底每股收益增长高达 18%。</b>尽管投资者不太可能直接奖励这些节拍，因为发布不是经常性的，但分析师预计市场将为盈利顺风和最近的 CCAR 业绩可能带来的资本回报买单。</blockquote></p><p> Another notable point:<b>while consensus expects S&amp;P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.</b></p><p><blockquote>另一个值得注意的点：<b>虽然普遍预计标普500每股收益将增长 61%，但该股的盈利预计中位数仅增长 24%。</b></blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/06b7ce6f61cb168c376424758fc9c5f0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"326\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&amp;P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.<b>The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&amp;P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.</b>Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.</p><p><blockquote>总盈利的更大反弹在很大程度上是基数效应的函数，或者是2020年盈利更大幅度下降的函数；2020 年第二季度，标普500股票的每股收益中值仅同比下降 12%，而总收益则下降了 32%。<b>该指数中最大的五只股票（FB、AMZN、AAPL、MSFT、GOOGL）占标普500 2021 年第二季度每股收益的 22% 和 14%。</b>尽管去年第二季度经济急剧萎缩，但这些公司的平均每股收益增长率为 38%，预计 2021 年第二季度的盈利仍将平均增长 52%。</blockquote></p><p> In his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -<b>who expects the S&amp;P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close</b>- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:</p><p><blockquote>高盛首席股票策略师 David Kostin 在第二季度财报季预览中表示 -<b>世卫组织预计标准普尔今年收于 4,300 点，较周五创纪录的收盘价下跌 -0.5%</b>- 本财报季重点关注管理层的三个问题：</blockquote></p><p> <ol>  <li>How will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?</li>  <li>How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</li>  <li>How does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.</li> </ol> <i>Digging a little deeper</i></p><p><blockquote><ol><li>在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</li><li>随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</li><li>持续的政策不确定性如何影响业务前景？费率大幅下降，高 “质量 ”主题的表现优于市场。</li></ol><i>再深入一点</i></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?</b>S&amp;P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in&nbsp; 1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.<b>Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.</b>During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&amp;A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.</li>  <li><b>2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.</b>According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.<i>Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.</i></li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c48adec9ce9ac7f02c3a669e37e358e4\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\"></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>1. 在投入成本压力下，企业将如何保持利润率？</b>2021 年第一季度，标普500利润率创下 11.9% 的历史新高，但鉴于投入成本上升，投资者仍关注未来利润率前景。<b>全球航运困境、原材料通货膨胀以及劳动力和半导体的严重短缺，通过提高价格并将更高的投入成本转嫁给客户，增加了各地公司的成本。</b>在第一季度评级期间，许多公司讨论了价格上涨，这一趋势可能会在第二季度财报期间继续下去。或者，随着 SG&amp;A 在销售额中的份额比历史有所增加，公司还可以通过削减成本来保持利润率。例如，通用磨坊上周宣布，它面临着十年来最高的一些成本，并将实施削减成本和提价相结合的措施。</li><li><b>2. 投资者已经开始奖励具有吸引力的利润率概况的公司。</b>高盛表示，利润率是当今公司估值的第二大驱动因素，仅次于股权存续期。该银行利润率最高与最低的股票的行业中立因素也开始跑赢大盘。<i>自 6 月初以来，其他 “质量 ”因素，如资产负债表强弱、资本回报率高与低，也出现了波动。</i></li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?</b>Both aggregate and median S&amp;P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&amp;P 500 ex-Financials cash.</li> </ul> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/a7c869205feb07f0e0dae0023005dbd0\" tg-width=\"500\" tg-height=\"350\">For what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&amp;P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&amp;A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&amp;D, and cash M&amp;A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.<b>High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.</b>Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that US<b>corporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record</b>(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>3. 随着资产负债表的恢复，公司将如何优先考虑现金支出？</b>标普500现金/资产比率的总体和中位数均已反弹，目前处于创纪录水平，部分原因是过去 18 个月创纪录的高位公司债券和后续股票发行。尽管杠杆率与历史相比仍然较高，但随着企业利润开始改善，杠杆率一直在下降。信息技术和非必需消费品的现金/资产比率是所有行业中最高的，占标普500除金融外现金总额的43%。</li></ul>无论如何，高盛预计资本支出将在2021年占标普500现金使用的最大份额，但预测同比增长最快的将是现金并购和股票回购。在 2020 年现金支出下降 10% 后，该银行预测，高现金余额、低收益率以及强劲的经济和盈利增长将共同推动 2021 年现金支出增长 19%（2.8 万亿美元），2022 年增长 6%（3 万亿美元）。2021年，增长投资（资本支出、R&amp;D和现金并购）应占总现金支出的55%。<b>高现金余额、创纪录的回购授权以及后 CCAR 时代金融公司的过剩资本也应该会推动 2021 年回购量反弹 35%。</b>事实上，该银行回购部门的数据显示，我们<b>今年迄今为止，企业已授权 6,270 亿美元回购，增速创历史第二快</b>（仅落后于2018年税改援助水平），比2020年水平高出155%</blockquote></p><p> In terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.</p><p><blockquote>在优先交易方面，Kostin 重点介绍了净利润率高于平均水平、2020 年实现利润率增长 50 多个基点以及预计未来两年每年利润率增长 50 多个基点的股票。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fd5a1c4bf80144b4c161f6e0ef5627ff\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"899\">The median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&amp;P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).</p><p><blockquote>中位数股票的 2021 年净利润率为 26%（标普500中位数为 13%），预计到 2022 年利润率将增长 306 个基点（中位数股票为 156 个基点）。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/goldman-has-three-questions-companies-during-q2-earnings-season","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1129204116","content_text":"2Q earnings season kicks off next week when the big banks kick off reporting as usual, and consensus expects 2Q EPS growth of 61% year/year, driven by a combination of base effect, 22% sales growth and 256 bps of net margin expansion to 11.1% even though the median stock is forecast to grow EPS by a more modest 24%. Compare this to one year ago, when S&P 500 EPS fell by 32% as the pandemic sparked a sharp recession. Cyclical Industrials, Consumer Discretionary, and Materials sectors are forecast to lead the index in EPS growth.\n\nIn 2Q 2020, Brent crude traded at an average of $33/bbl and Energy stocks posted an aggregate net loss. Oil prices averaged $69/bblin 2Q and Energy firms are expected to return to profitability.\nLike last quarter, Financials are expected to be the primary driver of S&P 500 EPS growth. In 1Q, Financials represented $3 of the total $9 EPS beat versus consensus expectations.Financials EPS are forecast to grow by 116% in 2Q and account for 25% of S&P 500 EPS growth.Most banks analysts expect results to come in largely in line with consensus after adjusting for reserve releases. Capital markets activity has normalized following the strong pace in 2020 and 1Q 2021. However,large reserve releases will boost EPS for the third quarter in a row and could drive up to 18% EPS uplift for Banks by year-end.Though investors are not likely to reward these beats outright since releases are non-recurring, analysts expect that the market will pay for the capital return that could result from the earnings tailwind and the recent CCAR results.\nAnother notable point:while consensus expects S&P 500 EPS to grow by 61%, the median stock is only forecast to grow earnings by 24%.\n\nThe greater rebound in aggregate earnings is largely a function of the base effect, or the sharper decline in earnings in 2020; the median S&P 500 stock saw its EPS fall by just 12% year/year in 2Q 2020 compared with the 32% decline in aggregate earnings.The five largest stocks in the index (FB, AMZN, AAPL, MSFT, GOOGL) account for 22% of market cap and 14% of S&P 500 2Q 2021 EPS.Despite last year’s acute 2Q economic contraction, these firms actually posted average EPS growth of 38% and are still expected to grow earnings by an average of 52% in 2Q 2021.\nIn his preview of Q2 earnings season, Goldman's chief equity strategist David Kostin -who expects the S&P to close the year at 4,300 or -0.5% lower from Friday's record close- focuses on three questions for managements this earnings season:\n\nHow will firms preserve profit margins amid input cost pressures?\nHow will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?\nHow does ongoing policy uncertainty affect the business outlook? Rates have plunged and high “quality” themes are outperforming.\n\nDigging a little deeper\n\n1. How will companies preserve margins amid input cost pressures?S&P 500 margins notched a record high of 11.9% in  1Q 2021, though investors remain focused on the forward margin outlook given rising input costs.Global shipping woes, raw material inflation as well as acute shortages in both labor and semiconductors have combined to increase costs for companies across the by raising prices and passing higher input costs to their customers.During Q1 calls, many companies discussed price increases and this trend will likely continue during 2Q earnings. Alternatively, with SG&A as a share of sales elevated versus history, companies can also preserve margins through cost cutting. As an example, General Mills announced last week that it faces some of the highest costs in a decade and will implement a mix of both cost cuts and price increases.\n2. Investors have started to reward companies with attractive margin profiles.According to Goldman, profit margins are the second most important driver of company valuations today, behind only equity duration. The bank's sector-neutral factor of stocks with the highest vs. lowest profit margins has also started to outperform.Other “quality” factors such as strong vs. weak balance sheets and high vs. low returns on capital have also inflected higher since early June.\n\n\n\n3. How will companies prioritize their cash spending as balance sheets recover?Both aggregate and median S&P 500 cash / assets ratios have rebounded and now stand at record levels, driven in part by record high corporate bond and follow-on equity issuance during the last 18 months. And while leverage remains elevated versus history, it has been falling as corporate profits have started to improve. Info Tech and Consumer Discretionary hold the highest cash / asset ratios of any sectors and account for 43% of total S&P 500 ex-Financials cash.\n\nFor what it's worth, Goldman expects capex will represent the largest share of S&P 500 cash use in 2021, but forecasts the fastest year/year growth will be in cash M&A and share buybacks. After a 10% decline in cash spending in 2020, the bank forecasts that high cash balances, anemic yields as well as strong economic and earnings growth will combine to drive 19% growth in cash spending in 2021 ($2.8 trillion) and 6% in 2022 ($3 trillion). Investing for growth (capex, R&D, and cash M&A) should account for 55% of total cash spending in 2021.High cash balances, record buyback authorizations, and excess capital for Financials post-CCAR should also drive a 35% rebound in buybacks in 2021.Indeed, data from the bank's buybacks desk show that UScorporates have authorized $627 billion in buybacks YTD, the second-fastest pace on record(only behind the tax reform aided level in 2018) and 155% above 2020 levels\nIn terms of preferred trades, Kostin highlights a screen of stocks with above-average net margins, realized margin growth of 50+ bp in 2020, and expected margin growth of 50+ bp in each of the next two years.\nThe median stock has a 2021E net margin of 26% (vs. 13% for S&P 500 median) and is forecast to grow margins by 306 bp through 2022 and (vs. 156 bp for median stock).","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":693,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":146377591,"gmtCreate":1626056474913,"gmtModify":1631893338984,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/146377591","repostId":"1156003112","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":893,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148506821,"gmtCreate":1625984092163,"gmtModify":1631893338989,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148506821","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148508187,"gmtCreate":1625983996449,"gmtModify":1631893338999,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148508187","repostId":"1184476863","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1184476863","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625967744,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1184476863?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-11 09:42","market":"us","language":"en","title":"XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1184476863","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line p","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的成长型公司，如果您是一家动量型投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在未来几年成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的增长公司，如果您是一位动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，该公司生产一款名为 G3 的 SUV 和一款名为 P7 的轿车。此外，该公司计划在 9 月份发布一款名为 G3i 的 SUV 升级版，并在年底前发布一款新型家庭友好型轿车 P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间里它的表现都优于标普500指数，自我们 6 月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是，它成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在改善交付方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在 6 月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的 6,565 辆汽车，同比增长 617%。此外，第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，上半年交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到疫情的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超过了 15,500 - 16,000 辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这一势头很可能至少会持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势在于其在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将制造或销售外包给其他国家，因为它有巨大的当地市场可以销售回国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为它目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同出资的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉完成其第三个制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，特斯拉（TSLA）2020年仅在华售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，如此大量的产能增加表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争，并在未来增加其在内地的牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要的事实是，小鹏在国内比特斯拉等技术更先进。其近一半的研发人员致力于自动驾驶软件，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在未来几年内成为首批达到 5 级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果该软件的最新版本记得车辆的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库里。车辆停放之前。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了几个。首先，小鹏贸易的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值来看，可以被认为是很有价值的。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合暴露于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中美潜在贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会被退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所进行了另一次IPO，采用双重主要上市结构，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者有能力通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务对外部市场的敞口不大，潜在贸易战的影响将微乎其微。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年内大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以有把握地假设，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的增长空间，考虑到其在Q2的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测显示，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从 2020 财年的 90 万美元增长 364%，增至 2022 财年的 41.8 亿美元，而其每股收益亏损预计也将从 2021 财年第二季度的 -0.33 美元降至第三季度和第四季度的 -0.06 美元。最重要的是，该公司在第一季度末拥有 51.2 亿美元现金，长期债务仅为 4.97 亿美元，而且由于最近香港发行，其流动性头寸已经约为 70 亿美元。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能被要求筹集新债务或通过发行新股来为其扩张提供资金来稀释股东。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长型股票，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为未来几个月即将推出的 P5 轿车可能会增加交付量和产能，这可能会将其股价推向更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划在短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的好仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>XPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nXPeng: Leader Of Chinese Vehicle Electrification Efforts<blockquote>小鹏汽车：中国汽车电气化的领导者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-11 09:42</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.</li>  <li>By being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.</li>  <li>We continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/19ebea80a575c2b5a2b022a046308936\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\"><span>Robert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。</li><li>作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车完全有机会成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。</li><li>我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的成长型公司，如果您是一家动量型投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>Robert Way/iStock 社论来自 Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.</p><p><blockquote>交付量的强劲增长应该有助于小鹏汽车（XPEV）在未来几个季度继续提高其营收业绩，并扩大其在中国电动汽车市场的立足点。此外，作为中国技术最先进的电动汽车公司之一，小鹏汽车也完全有机会在未来几年成为首批达到5级自动化的汽车制造商之一。考虑到这一点，我们仍然相信小鹏汽车是一家稳健的增长公司，如果您是一位动量投资者，那么现在是购买其股票的好时机。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Firing On All Cylinders</b></p><p><blockquote><b>全气缸点火</b></blockquote></p><p> XPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&amp;P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest&nbsp;article&nbsp;about its business was published in June.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车是中国最大的电动汽车制造商之一。目前，该公司生产一款名为 G3 的 SUV 和一款名为 P7 的轿车。此外，该公司计划在 9 月份发布一款名为 G3i 的 SUV 升级版，并在年底前发布一款新型家庭友好型轿车 P5。总体而言，小鹏汽车的股票近几个月表现不错，去年大部分时间里它的表现都优于标普500指数，自我们 6 月份发表有关其业务的最新文章以来，目前已上涨约 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/51f7c530182ce2c7abde426fcff7f474\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"443\"><span>Chart: Seeking Alpha</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>图表：寻求阿尔法</span></p></blockquote></p><p> One of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的成就之一是，它成功度过了芯片短缺危机的初始阶段，并在改善交付方面取得了很大进展。最新数据表明，精通技术的中国消费者对其产品的需求仍然强劲，仅在 6 月份，该公司就交付了创纪录的 6,565 辆汽车，同比增长 617%。此外，第二季度交付量为17,398辆，同比增长439%，上半年交付量为30,738辆，同比增长459%。另一个好消息是，尽管受到疫情的影响，该公司第二季度的交付量仍超过了 15,500 - 16,000 辆的预期，并且有充分的理由相信这一势头很可能至少会持续到今年年底。</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/0479a72617e0ff9759beb7f820fc0494\" tg-width=\"925\" tg-height=\"445\"><span>Source:InsideEVs</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：InsideEVs</span></p></blockquote></p><p> The biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.</p><p><blockquote>小鹏汽车最大的优势在于其在中国运营，中国被认为是全球最大的电动汽车市场。得益于此，小鹏汽车不需要将制造或销售外包给其他国家，因为它有巨大的当地市场可以销售回国内。更重要的是，它还得到了政府的大力支持，因为它目前正在建设的一些制造设施是由中国地方政府共同出资的。通过获得这样的帮助，小鹏汽车现在有望在武汉完成其第三个制造工厂，这将有助于其达到至少30万辆的年产能。相比之下，特斯拉（TSLA）2020年仅在华售出13.7万辆Model 3。因此，如此大量的产能增加表明小鹏汽车已准备好应对竞争，并在未来增加其在内地的牵引力。</blockquote></p><p> Another important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&amp;D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.</p><p><blockquote>另一个重要的事实是，小鹏在国内比特斯拉等技术更先进。其近一半的研发人员致力于自动驾驶软件，因此，该公司成功开发了最先进的导航系统之一，这将有助于其在未来几年内成为首批达到 5 级自动化的公司之一。最重要的是，自今年早些时候推出以来，在导航系统的帮助下已经行驶了超过500万公里，如果该软件的最新版本记得车辆的位置，现在可以在没有人工帮助的情况下自动将汽车停放在车库里。车辆停放之前。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Risks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>风险</b></blockquote></p><p> As for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.</p><p><blockquote>至于风险，我们看到了几个。首先，小鹏贸易的市销率约为16倍，以其目前约370亿美元的市值来看，可以被认为是很有价值的。因此，对于长期价值股东以及那些不想将投资组合暴露于中国资产的人来说，这不是一项好的投资。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> In addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.</p><p><blockquote>此外，中美潜在贸易战的爆发可能会阻止小鹏汽车进入美国资本市场，因为其目前的股票可能会被退市。为了解决这个问题，该公司最近刚刚在香港联交所进行了另一次IPO，采用双重主要上市结构，筹集了近20亿美元。这不仅有助于该公司进入主要资本市场，还将使中国大陆投资者有能力通过港股通购买该股票，这应该会在不久的将来提振小鹏汽车的估值。最重要的是，由于小鹏汽车的业务对外部市场的敞口不大，潜在贸易战的影响将微乎其微。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> Despite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.</p><p><blockquote>尽管存在这些风险，我们不应忘记，中国有望在未来四十年内大幅减少碳足迹。因此，可以有把握地假设，电动汽车在中国道路上的渗透率在未来几十年只会增加。因此，我们相信小鹏汽车现阶段有很大的增长空间，考虑到其在Q2的出色表现，我们也相信它完全有机会成为该地区最大的电动汽车制造商之一。</blockquote></p><p> The latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.</p><p><blockquote>最新预测显示，小鹏汽车的收入可能会从 2020 财年的 90 万美元增长 364%，增至 2022 财年的 41.8 亿美元，而其每股收益亏损预计也将从 2021 财年第二季度的 -0.33 美元降至第三季度和第四季度的 -0.06 美元。最重要的是，该公司在第一季度末拥有 51.2 亿美元现金，长期债务仅为 4.97 亿美元，而且由于最近香港发行，其流动性头寸已经约为 70 亿美元。因此，小鹏汽车的资产负债表并没有过度杠杆化，而且由于新现金的涌入，它不太可能被要求筹集新债务或通过发行新股来为其扩张提供资金来稀释股东。因此，我们认为其股票可以被视为成长型股票，特别是因为它最近被纳入富时指数，这应该有助于它吸引更多机构投资者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> With all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.</p><p><blockquote>考虑到所有这些，我们还认为现在是购买该公司股票的一个很好的切入点，因为未来几个月即将推出的 P5 轿车可能会增加交付量和产能，这可能会将其股价推向更高的水平。因此，我们没有计划在短期内回补我们在小鹏汽车的好仓。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"09868":"小鹏集团-W","XPEV":"小鹏集团"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4438413-xpeng-leader-of-chinese-vehicle-electrification-efforts","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1184476863","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters.\nBy being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation.\nWe continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you’re a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\n\nRobert Way/iStock Editorial via Getty Images\nThe aggressive growth of deliveries should help XPeng (XPEV) to continue to improve its top-line performance and expand its foothold in the Chinese EV market in the following quarters. In addition, by being one of the most technologically advanced electric vehicle companies in China, XPeng also has all the chances to become one of the first automakers to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. Considering this, we continue to believe that XPeng is a solid growth play and if you're a momentum investor, then now is a good time to purchase its shares.\nFiring On All Cylinders\nXPeng is one of the biggest EV manufacturers in China. Currently, it produces an SUV that goes under the name G3 and a sedan that's called P7. In addition, the company plans to release an upgraded version of its SUV called G3i in September and a new family-friendly sedan P5 by the end of the year. Overall, XPeng's stock showed decent results in recent months, as it has outperformed the S&P 500 Index for most of the last year, and is currently up ~5% since our latest article about its business was published in June.\nChart: Seeking Alpha\nOne of the biggest achievements of XPeng is that it has managed to successfully navigate through the initial stages of the chip shortage crisis and made a lot of progress on improving its deliveries. The latestdatasuggests that there's still a strong demand for its offerings among tech-savvy Chinese consumers, as in June alone the company delivered a record 6,565 vehicles, an increase of 617% Y/Y. In addition, its Q2 deliveries were 17,398, up 439% Y/Y, while its 1H deliveries were 30,738 vehicles, up 459% Y/Y. Another good news is that the company's Q2 deliveries beat its projections of 15,500 - 16,000 units despite the pandemic and there's every reason to believe that the momentum is very likely to hold until the end of the year at the very least.\nSource:InsideEVs\nThe biggest advantage of XPeng is that it operates in China, which is considered to be the biggest EV market in the world. Thanks to it, XPeng doesn't need to outsource its manufacturing or sales to other countries as it has a huge local market to sell to back at home. What's more important is that it also has strong governmental support, as some of its manufacturing facilities that are currently being built were co-financed by Chinese local governments. By receiving such help, XPeng is now on track to complete its third manufacturing facility in Wuhan, which will help it to reach an annual capacity of at least 300,000 vehicles. For comparison, Tesla (TSLA) in 2020 sold only 137,000 Model 3s in China. Therefore, an increase of the capacity to such substantial numbers signals that XPeng is ready to tackle the competition and increase its traction across the mainland going forward.\nAnother important fact is that XPeng is more technologically advanced in China than Tesla and others. Almost half of its R&D workforce works on autonomous driving software, and as a result, the company has managed to develop one of the most advanced navigation systems, which should help it to become one of the first to reach Level 5 automation in the following years. On top of that, over 5 million kilometers were alreadydrivenwith the help of the navigation system since its launch earlier this year, and the latest version of the software can now automaticallyparkthe car in garages without human help if it remembers the spot in which the vehicle was parked before.\nRisks\nAs for the risks, we see a couple of them. First of all, XPengtradesat a price-to-sales ratio of ~16x and could be considered richly valued at its current market cap of around $37 billion. For that reason, it's not a good investment for long-term value shareholders, and for those who don't want to expose their portfolios to Chinese assets.\nIn addition, there's a risk that the start of the potential China-US trade war could prevent XPeng from accessing the US capital markets, as its current shares could be delisted. To tackle this issue, the company just recentlyraisednearly $2 billion by executing another IPO on the Hong Kong stock exchange with a double main listing structure. This will help the company not only to have an access to the major capital market, but it will also give the Chinese mainland investors the ability to buy the stock through the Hong Kong Stock Connect, which should boost XPeng's valuation in the near future. On top of that, since XPeng's business doesn't have major exposure to outside markets, the blowback from the potential trade war will be minimal.\nTakeaway\nDespite those risks, we should not forget that China is on track to significantly decrease its carbon footprint in the next four decades. Therefore, it's safe to assume that the penetration rate of electric vehicles on Chinese roads is only going to increase in the following decades. As a result, we believe that there's plenty of room for XPeng to drive growth at this stage, and considering its great performance in Q2, we also believe that it has all the chances to become one of the biggest EV manufacturers in the region.\nThe latest forecast suggests that XPeng could increase its revenues by 364% from $0.9 million in FY20 to $4.18 billion in FY22, while its EPS loss is also expected todecreasefrom -$0.33 in Q2'21 to only -$0.06 in Q3 and Q4. On top of that, the companyhad$5.12 billion in cash at the end of Q1, only $497 million in long-term debt, and thanks to the recent Honk Kong offering its liquidity position is already around $7 billion. As a result, XPeng doesn't have an overleveraged balance sheet, and thanks to the influx of new cash it's very unlikely that it'll be required to raise new debt or dilute its shareholders by offering new shares to fund its expansion. Therefore, we believe that its stock could be considered a growth play, especially since it has beenaddedto FTSE's indexes recently, which should help it to attract more attention from institutional investors.\nWith all of this in mind, we also think that right now is a good entry point to purchase the company's shares, as the likely increase in deliveries and capacity along with the launch of the upcoming P5 sedan in the following months could push its stock to higher levels. For that reason, we have no plans to cover our long position in XPeng anytime soon.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"XPEV":0.9,"09868":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":758,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148501076,"gmtCreate":1625983932395,"gmtModify":1631893339017,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"idStr":"4088486546195490","authorIdStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like.","listText":"Pls like.","text":"Pls like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148501076","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":148506821,"gmtCreate":1625984092163,"gmtModify":1631893338989,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148506821","repostId":"1185154176","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1185154176","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625886925,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1185154176?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-10 11:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1185154176","media":"marketwatch","summary":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support. When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit n","content":"<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603348471595","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>The bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nThe bull market in stocks may last up to five years — here are six reasons why<blockquote>股市牛市可能会持续长达五年——以下是六个原因</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">marketwatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-10 11:15</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support</p><p><blockquote>经济正在蓬勃发展，收入正在上升，美联储正在提供前所未有的支持</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/16f57eb7b0f75afb2f46b6d61281db87\" tg-width=\"1260\" tg-height=\"839\"><span>(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>（照片由豪尔赫·格雷罗/法新社通过盖蒂图片社提供）</span></p></blockquote></p><p> When the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.</p><p><blockquote>当股市抛售时，就像周四一样，正确的做法是购买你最喜欢的股票。周五的市场走势证明了这一点。</blockquote></p><p> It’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&amp;P 500 Index&nbsp;this year. But you should buy then, too.</p><p><blockquote>鉴于标普500指数今年已经上涨了 17%，确实可能会出现调整。但你也应该买。</blockquote></p><p> Here’s why.</p><p><blockquote>原因如下。</blockquote></p><p> We are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.</p><p><blockquote>由于以下六个原因，我们仍处于三到五年股市牛市的早期阶段。</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1. 存在巨大的被压抑的需求</b></blockquote></p><p> Everyone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.</p><p><blockquote>每个人都在向美联储寻求有关刺激的线索。他们忽视了将推高股市的私营部门力量。综上所述，私营部门被压抑的巨大需求将有助于推动美国今年的 GDP 增长率达到 8%，之后几年将达到 3.5%-4.5%。Leuthold 集团首席策略师兼经济学家吉姆·保尔森 (Jim Paulsen) 指出，被压抑的需求来自以下来源。</blockquote></p><p> First, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.</p><p><blockquote>首先，随着千禧一代进入家庭年龄，家庭组建激增。这有助于解释国内需求的大幅增长。一旦你买了房子，你就得把它装满东西。更多的消费者需求即将到来。</blockquote></p><p> Behind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.</p><p><blockquote>在幕后，消费者有大量未动用的储蓄，因为他们为疫情蹲下身子。个人储蓄率达到GDP的近16%，而战后平均水平为6.5%。之前的高点是20世纪70年代的10%。</blockquote></p><p> Relatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.</p><p><blockquote>与此相关的是，家庭资产负债表明显改善。债务收入比是20世纪90年代以来的最低水平。随着就业和经济保持强劲，消费者的信心增强，他们将继续利用更多的银行贷款和信用卡容量。</blockquote></p><p> Next, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.</p><p><blockquote>接下来，一旦额外的失业救济金在9月份到期，将会有更多的新就业人口。这意味着消费者信心将会改善，这无疑会促进经济增长。劳动力参与率还有提高的空间，在我们实现充分就业之前留下多余的就业能力，从而限制经济增长。</blockquote></p><p> Now let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.</p><p><blockquote>现在让我们来看看企业中被压抑的需求。</blockquote></p><p> You know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.</p><p><blockquote>你知道你经常遇到或听到的所有东西的短缺吗？这就是为什么会发生这种情况。为了应对长期的流行病，企业大幅削减库存。这是有史以来最大的库存清算。但现在，公司不得不重建库存。正在进行的库存重建将是巨大的。</blockquote></p><p> Companies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.</p><p><blockquote>公司还削减了产能，并正在再次扩大产能。资本货物支出在过去二十年的大部分时间里基本持平后，去年飙升至历史新高，增长了近 23%。这创造了持续增长，并告诉我们很多关于商业信心的信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The bottom line</b>: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.</p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b>今年GDP将增长7%-8%，明年将增长4%-4.5%，之后将高于平均水平，支撑股市持续牛市。期待一路上的正常修正。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2. 被低估的盈利繁荣即将到来</b></blockquote></p><p> The economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&amp;P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.</p><p><blockquote>经济反弹发生得太快了，分析师们都跟不上了。华尔街分析师预计标普500今年每股收益为 190 美元。但考虑到预期的7%-8%的GDP增长和尚未生效的大规模刺激措施，这一数字低得可怜。刺激措施通常需要六到八个月才能生效，而最近的许多波动都发生在这个时间窗内。</blockquote></p><p> Paulsen expects 2021 S&amp;P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.</p><p><blockquote>保尔森预计 2021 年标普500盈利将更接近 220 美元，而不是普遍预期的 190 美元。</blockquote></p><p> “Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”</p><p><blockquote>“保尔森说：”分析师仍然低估了利润已经提高了多少，以及利润将提高多少。“我们的政策官员反应过度。他们解决了崩盘问题，但基本面却有了巨大的改善。就利润复苏而言，这种情况仍在上演”。</blockquote></p><p> Plus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.</p><p><blockquote>此外，更多的财政刺激可能即将以基础设施支出的形式出台。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. There’s a new Fed in town</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3. 镇上有了新的美联储</b></blockquote></p><p> For much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).</p><p><blockquote>在过去三十年的大部分时间里，美联储一直在迅速收紧政策以抵御通货膨胀。在这个过程中，央行扼杀了增长。这也是过去 20 年是战后增长最慢的原因之一。然而，现在美联储更加宽松，这种情况可能会持续下去，因为通胀将保持低迷（更多内容见下文）。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Here’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.</p><p><blockquote>这里有一个简单的量规来衡量这一点。以 GDP 增长为例，减去 10 年期国债收益率 ESTMUBMUSD10Y，1.359%。该指标在 1980 年至 2010 年的大部分时间里都是负值，当时美联储保持增长冷静以遏制通胀。然而现在，美联储的政策正在帮助将 10 年期国债收益率保持在远低于 GDP 增长率的水平，这使得经济过热。这就是 1950-1965 年期间的情况，一些分析家称看涨期权为 “资本主义的黄金时代”，因为它在增长过程中出现了滑坡。</blockquote></p><p> <b>4. Inflation won’t kill the bull</b></p><p><blockquote><b>4. 通货膨胀不会杀死牛市</b></blockquote></p><p> Inflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.</p><p><blockquote>由于经济如此火爆，通货膨胀在短期内可能会上升。但从中期来看，通胀杀手将获胜。以下是综述。人口老龄化，老年人消费减少。商业资本支出的激增将继续提高公司的生产力。这使他们能够避免将不断上涨的成本转嫁给客户。全球贸易和竞争并没有消失。这给价格带来了下行压力，因为在许多外国可以更便宜地生产商品。持续的技术进步不断给科技产品带来下行压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>5. Valuations will improve</b></p><p><blockquote><b>5.估值将改善</b></blockquote></p><p> We’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.</p><p><blockquote>我们现在正处于经济反弹阶段，通常会出现以下动态。几个月来，股市一直横盘整理，主要是因为对通货膨胀和债券收益率上升的担忧。与此同时，经济和盈利持续增长，降低了股票估值。这种动态在1983-84年、1993-94年、2004-05年和2009-10年的经济反弹中大约在这一点上表现出来。简而言之，当股市标记时间，甚至回调时，我们将看到盈利大幅飙升。</blockquote></p><p> This will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&amp;P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.</p><p><blockquote>这将使股票估值降低，消除投资者的主要担忧之一——高估值。如果标普500的盈利在今年年底达到 220 美元，并且该指数因调整而处于 4,000 至 4,100 点，那么股票的市盈率将为 18-19，低于 1990 年以来的平均水平。</blockquote></p><p> True to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000&nbsp;small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&amp;P 500 and Nasdaq&nbsp;recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.</p><p><blockquote>一如既往，道琼斯工业平均指数 (DJIA) 和罗素 2000 小型股指数已经横盘整理了两到四个月。标普500和纳斯达克最近突破了交易区间，但更大的回调将使它们回到横盘整理模式。</blockquote></p><p> <b>6. Sentiment isn’t extreme</b></p><p><blockquote><b>6. 情绪并不极端</b></blockquote></p><p> As a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.</p><p><blockquote>作为一个逆向投资者，我认为过度的情绪是时候筹集一些现金了。我们还没看到。一个简单的衡量标准是投资者情报牛熊比率。它最近的价格是3.92。那是在警告路径附近，对我来说，警告路径是从 4 点开始的。另一方面，共同基金现金最近达到 4.6 万亿美元，接近历史高位。这代表了投资者的谨慎。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Three themes to follow</b></p><p><blockquote><b>遵循的三个主题</b></blockquote></p><p> If we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们即将迎来经济持续复苏和股市多年牛市，那么遵循这三个主题将是值得的。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor cyclicals.</b>Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐周期性产品。</b>持有对经济敏感的业务，并在回调时增持这些业务。这意味着金融、材料、工业和非必需消费品业务等领域的周期性公司。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Avoid defensives.</b>If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot&nbsp;in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management&nbsp;in consumer finance.</p><p><blockquote><b>避免防御。</b>如果你想要收益率，那就选择支付股息但也有资本增值潜力的股票——而不是销售必需品等商品的稳定增长公司。关于这个主题，在我的股票信中（链接在下面的简介中），我最近建议或重申了家得宝（Home Depot）在零售业、B. Riley Financial（一家市场和投资银行公司）以及消费金融领域的区域管理。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Favor emerging markets.</b>Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.</p><p><blockquote><b>青睐新兴市场。</b>在扩张期间，它们的增长往往会更高。小心中国。它的人口老龄化。有限的劳动力增长可能会限制经济增长。另一个挑战是，持续的中美紧张局势以及持续关税和贸易壁垒的相关威胁迫使全球公司将供应链转移到其他地方。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page\">marketwatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".DJI":"道琼斯",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/the-bull-market-in-stocks-may-last-up-to-five-years-here-are-six-reasons-why-11625842781?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1185154176","content_text":"The economy is booming, earnings are rising, and the Federal Reserve is giving unprecedented support\n(Photo by Jorge Guerrero/AFP via Getty Images)\nWhen the stock market sells off, as it did Thursday, the right move was to buy your favorite stocks. Friday’s market action proved that.\nIt’s true that there could be a correction, given the already sizable 17% gain in the S&P 500 Index this year. But you should buy then, too.\nHere’s why.\nWe are still only in the early stages of what is going to be a three- to five-year bull market in stocks, for these six reasons.\n1. There’s tremendous pent-up demand\nEveryone is looking to the Federal Reserve for cues about stimulus. They are overlooking private-sector forces that will push stocks higher. To sum up, there’s huge pent-up private-sector demand that will help propel U.S. GDP growth to 8% this year and 3.5%-4.5% for years after that. The pent-up demand comes from the following sources, points out Jim Paulsen, chief strategist and economist at the Leuthold Group.\nFirst, there’s been a surge in household formation, as millennials hit the family years. This helps explain the big uptick in home demand. Once you buy a house, you have to fill it up with stuff. More consumer demand on the way.\nBehind the scenes, consumers have massive unspent savings because they hunkered down for the pandemic. The personal savings rate hit nearly 16% of GDP, compared to a post war average of 6.5%. The prior high was 10% in 1970s.\nRelatedly, household balance sheets improved remarkably. Debt-to-income ratios are the lowest since the 1990s. Consumers will continue to tap more bank loans and credit card capacity, as their confidence increases because employment and the economy remain strong.\nNext, there will be plenty more newly employed people once the extra unemployment benefits expire in September. This means consumer confidence will improve, which invariably boosts economic growth. The labor participation rate has room to improve, leaving spare employment capacity before we hit the full employment that can cap economic growth.\nNow let’s look at the pent-up demand in businesses.\nYou know all the shortages of stuff you keep running into or hearing about? Here’s why this is happening. To prepare for a prolonged epidemic, businesses cut inventories to the bone. It was the biggest inventory liquidation ever. But now, companies have to build back inventories. The ongoing inventory rebuild will be huge.\nCompanies also cut capacity, which they are building out again. Capital goods spending surged to record highs in the past year, advancing almost 23%, after being essentially flat for most of the prior two decades. This creates sustained growth, and it tells us a lot about business confidence.\nThe bottom line: We will see 7%-8% GDP growth this year, followed by 4%-4.5% next year and above average growth after that, supporting a sustained bull market in stocks. Expect the normal corrections along the way.\n2. An under-appreciated earnings boom lies ahead\nThe economic rebound has happened so quickly, analysts can’t keep up. Wall Street analysts project $190 a share in S&P 500 earnings this year. But that is woefully low given the expected 7%-8% GDP growth and massive stimulus that has yet to kick in. Stimulus normally takes six to eight months to take effect, and a lot of the recent dollops happened inside that window.\nPaulsen expects 2021 S&P 500 earnings will be more like $220 instead of the consensus estimate of $190.\n“Analysts are still under-appreciating how much profits have improved and how much they will improve,” says Paulsen. “We had dramatic overreaction from policy officials. They addressed the collapse, but created a massive improvement in fundamentals. This is still playing out in terms of the recovery in profits.”\nPlus, more fiscal stimulus is probably on the way, in the form of infrastructure spending.\n3. There’s a new Fed in town\nFor much of the past three decades, the Fed has been quick to tighten its policy to ward off inflation. The central bank killed off growth in the process. That’s one reason why the past 20 years posted the slowest growth in the post-war era. Now, though, the Fed is much more accommodative and this may likely persist because inflation will remain sluggish (more on this, below).\nHere’s a simple gauge to measure this. Take GDP growth and subtract the yield on 10-year TreasuriesTMUBMUSD10Y,1.359%.This gauge was negative for much of 1980-2010, when the Fed kept growth cool to contain inflation. Now, though, Fed policy is helping to keep 10-year yields well below GDP growth, which allows the economy to run hot. This was the state of affairs during 1950-1965, which some analysts call “the golden age of capitalism” because of the glide path in growth.\n4. Inflation won’t kill the bull\nInflation may rise near term because the economy is so hot. But medium term, the inflation slayers will win out. Here’s a roundup. The population is aging, and older people spend less. The boom in business capital spending will continue to boost productivity at companies. This allows them to avoid passing along rising costs to customers. Global trade and competition have not gone away. This puts downward pressure on prices since goods can be made more cheaply in many foreign countries. Ongoing technological advances continually put downward pressure on tech products.\n5. Valuations will improve\nWe’re now at the phase in the economic rebound where the following dynamic typically plays out. Stocks trade sideways for months, mostly because of worries about inflation and rising bond yields. All the while, the economy and earnings continue to grow, bringing down stock valuations. This dynamic played out at about this point in prior economic rebounds during 1983-84, 1993-94, 2004-05 and 2009-10. In short, we will see a big surge in earnings while the stock market marks time, or even corrects.\nThis will reset stock valuations lower, removing one of the chief concerns among investors — high valuations. If S&P 500 earnings hit $220 by the end of the year and the index is at 4,000 to 4,100 points because of a correction, stocks will be at an 18-19 price earnings ratio — below the average since 1990.\nTrue to form, the Dow Jones Industrial AverageDJIA,+1.30%and the Russell 2000 small-cap index have traded sideways for two to four months. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq recently broke out of trading ranges, but a bigger pullback would send them back into sideways action mode.\n6. Sentiment isn’t extreme\nAs a contrarian, I look for excessive sentiment as a sign that it’s time to raise some cash. We don’t see that yet. A simple gauge to follow is the Investors Intelligence Bull/Bear ratio. It recently came in at 3.92. That’s near the warning path, which for me starts at 4. On the other hand, mutual fund cash was recently at $4.6 trillion, near historical highs. This represents caution among investors.\nThree themes to follow\nIf we are in store for a sustained economic recovery and a multi-year bull market in stocks, it will pay to follow these three themes.\nFavor cyclicals.Stay with economically sensitive businesses and add to your holdings in them on pullbacks. This means cyclical companies in areas like financials, materials, industrials and consumer discretionary businesses.\nAvoid defensives.If you want yield, go with stocks that pay a dividend but also have capital appreciation potential — not steady growth companies selling stuff like consumer staples. On this theme, in my stock letter Brush Up on Stocks (the link is in bio, below) I’ve recently suggested or reiterated Home Depot in retail, B. Riley Financial,a markets and investment banking name, and Regional Management in consumer finance.\nFavor emerging markets.Their growth tends to be higher during expansions. Just be careful with China. It has an aging population. Limited workforce growth may constrain economic growth. Another challenge is that ongoing U.S.-China tensions and the related threat of persistent tariffs and trade barriers have global companies relocating supply chains elsewhere.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":795,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148501076,"gmtCreate":1625983932395,"gmtModify":1631893339017,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Pls like.","listText":"Pls like.","text":"Pls like.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148501076","repostId":"1135090843","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":885,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143649625,"gmtCreate":1625793472167,"gmtModify":1633937284775,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice.pls like","listText":"nice.pls like","text":"nice.pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143649625","repostId":"1148778859","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":491,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":143657630,"gmtCreate":1625793346920,"gmtModify":1633937286777,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/143657630","repostId":"1195657546","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":472,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154453662,"gmtCreate":1625540710456,"gmtModify":1633939822736,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154453662","repostId":"1190430616","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":457,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":154197660,"gmtCreate":1625487592350,"gmtModify":1633940276251,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"pls like","listText":"pls like","text":"pls like","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/154197660","repostId":"1155435134","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1155435134","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1625483300,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1155435134?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-07-05 19:08","market":"sh","language":"en","title":"What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1155435134","media":"investopedia","summary":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the","content":"<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。三月份发送的四个季度，即第一季度；六月，或Q2；九月，或第三季度；和 12 月，或第四季度。这被认为是投资者的重要时刻。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储会在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是会在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据被提出来证实这种做法或其流行，但这个想法本身强化了季度末是重要的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合中的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少有像季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合内的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望他的投资组合由 50% 的成长型股票、25% 的收益型股票和 25% 的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益股票和债券，以使投资组合恢复到 50-25-25 的比例。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>被称为财务季度的三个月期末被认为是投资者的重要时刻。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高位卖出来交换表现良好的资产的收益，以低位买入来交换表现较差的资产。理论上，这有助于保护投资组合不会过度暴露或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将重新平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于可能与市场走势不一致的任意日历事件。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇聚通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>不仅仅是个人投资者考虑在季度末进行投资组合变动。投资组合管理对于共同基金和交易所交易基金（ETF）等机构投资者也很重要。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动和被动。4被动基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，并涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。季度末对于这些类型的基金来说意义不大，但如果它们的基准指数在这个时候发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金的经理或经理团队采取更积极主动的方法来超越市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能会非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前陈述的目标和战略。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606203311635","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Does the End of the Quarter Mean for Portfolio Management?<blockquote>季度末对投资组合管理意味着什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">investopedia</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-07-05 19:08</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>“季度末”是指财务日历上四个特定三个月期间之一的结束。三月份发送的四个季度，即第一季度；六月，或Q2；九月，或第三季度；和 12 月，或第四季度。这被认为是投资者的重要时刻。许多企业、分析师、政府机构和美联储会在季度末发布有关各种市场或经济指标的重要新数据。</blockquote></p><p> There's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.</p><p><blockquote>金融界普遍认为，对冲基金、养老基金和保险公司总是会在每个季度末重新平衡其投资组合。虽然从来没有证据或证据被提出来证实这种做法或其流行，但这个想法本身强化了季度末是重要的概念。</blockquote></p><p> Even if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.</p><p><blockquote>即使主要金融参与者并不总是在季度末重新平衡，许多投资者也会利用这段时间重新评估自己的投资组合管理，改变投资组合中的资产或设定新的投资组合目标。对于投资者来说，不时监控他们的投资不仅是一个好主意，而且很少有像季度末那样发布如此多的新的、可操作的信息。</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancing a Portfolio</p><p><blockquote>重新平衡投资组合</blockquote></p><p> Rebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.</p><p><blockquote>再平衡涉及定期出售和购买投资组合内的资产以维持目标比率。2考虑一位投资者，他希望他的投资组合由 50% 的成长型股票、25% 的收益型股票和 25% 的债券组成。如果在第一季度，成长型股票的表现大幅优于其他投资，投资者可能会决定出售一些成长型股票或购买更多收益股票和债券，以使投资组合恢复到 50-25-25 的比例。</blockquote></p><p> KEY TAKEAWAYS</p><p><blockquote>主要要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.</li>  <li>Companies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.</li>  <li>Both retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.</li> </ul> Traditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>被称为财务季度的三个月期末被认为是投资者的重要时刻。</li><li>公司、金融分析师和政府机构（包括美联储）都会在季度末发布报告和关键数据。</li><li>散户和机构投资者经常利用季度末来重新评估和平衡他们的投资组合。</li></ul>传统的再平衡涉及在每个季度末通过高位卖出来交换表现良好的资产的收益，以低位买入来交换表现较差的资产。理论上，这有助于保护投资组合不会过度暴露或偏离其原始策略太远。然而，将重新平衡与季度末挂钩依赖于可能与市场走势不一致的任意日历事件。然而，季度末出现的新报告的汇聚通常会引起市场反应，应该引起大多数参与者的关注。</blockquote></p><p> Institutional Investors and Rebalancing</p><p><blockquote>机构投资者与再平衡</blockquote></p><p> It is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3</p><p><blockquote>不仅仅是个人投资者考虑在季度末进行投资组合变动。投资组合管理对于共同基金和交易所交易基金（ETF）等机构投资者也很重要。3</blockquote></p><p> There are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.</p><p><blockquote>基金投资组合管理有两种形式：主动和被动。4被动基金通常将其投资组合与市场指数挂钩，并涉及较少的变化，以换取较低的管理费。季度末对于这些类型的基金来说意义不大，但如果它们的基准指数在这个时候发生变化，它们也会发生变化。</blockquote></p><p> Active funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.</p><p><blockquote>主动型基金的经理或经理团队采取更积极主动的方法来超越市场平均回报。这些基金在季度末可能会非常活跃，特别是如果他们的投资组合需要调整以满足他们之前陈述的目标和战略。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral\">investopedia</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{},"source_url":"https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/122214/what-does-end-quarter-mean-portfolio-management.asp?utm_campaign=quote-yahoo&utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=referral","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1155435134","content_text":"The \"end of the quarter\" refers to the conclusion of one of four specific three-month periods on the financial calendar. Thefour quartersend in March, or Q1; June, or Q2; September, or Q3; and December, or Q4. These are considered important times for investors. Many businesses, analysts, government agencies, and theFederal Reserverelease critical new data about various markets or economic indicators at the end of a quarter.\nThere's a widely held belief in financial circles that hedge funds, pension funds, and insurance companies always rebalance their portfolios at the end of each quarter. While no proof or evidence has ever been put forward to confirm this practice or its prevalence, the very idea reinforces the concept that the end of a quarter is significant.\nEven if major financial players do not always rebalance at the end of quarters, many investors use this time to re-evaluate their ownportfolio management, changing which assets comprise the portfolio or setting new portfolio targets. Not only is it a good idea for investors to monitor their investments from time-to-time but rarely is so much new, actionable information released as during the end of a quarter.\nRebalancing a Portfolio\nRebalancinginvolves the periodic sale and purchase of assets within a portfolio to maintain a target ratio.2Consider an investor who wants his portfolio to be comprised of 50% growth stocks, 25% income stocks, and 25% bonds. If during Q1, the growth stocks outperform the other investments substantially, the investor may decide to sell some growth stocks or purchase more income stocks and bonds to bring the portfolio back to a 50-25-25 split.\nKEY TAKEAWAYS\n\nThe end of the three-month period known as a financial quarter is considered an important time for investors.\nCompanies, financial analysts, and government agencies (including the Fed) all release reports and critical data at the end of a quarter.\nBoth retail and institutional investors often use the end of a quarter to re-evaluate and rebalance their portfolios.\n\nTraditional rebalancing involves trading the gains of well-performing assets, by selling high, for more low-performing assets, by buying low, at the end of each quarter. Theoretically, this serves to protect a portfolio from being too exposed or straying too far from its original strategy. However, pegging rebalances to the end of quarters relies on arbitrary calendar events which may not coincide with market movements. Nevertheless, the confluence of new reports that emerge at the end of quarters usually causes market reactions and should be of concern to most participants.\nInstitutional Investors and Rebalancing\nIt is not just individual investors who consider making portfolio moves at the end of quarters. Portfolio management is also important for institutional investors, like mutual funds and exchange-traded funds, or ETFs.3\nThere are two forms of fund portfolio management: active and passive.4Passive funds generally peg their portfolios to market indexes and involve fewer changes in exchange for lower management fees. The end of a quarter is less significant for these types of funds, though if theirbenchmark indexeschange at this time, they will as well.\nActive funds have a manager or team of managers who take a more proactive approach to beat market average returns. These funds can be quite active during the end of quarters, especially if their portfolios need to be adjusted to meet their previously stated goals and strategies.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":474,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":890285890,"gmtCreate":1628120175410,"gmtModify":1631891079100,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/890285890","repostId":"2157483930","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":177436549,"gmtCreate":1627256953281,"gmtModify":1631891079112,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/177436549","repostId":"1100772026","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2647,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":148935549,"gmtCreate":1625912835181,"gmtModify":1633936146658,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice.","listText":"nice.","text":"nice.","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/148935549","repostId":"2150370120","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":242,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":149472663,"gmtCreate":1625746499152,"gmtModify":1633937794640,"author":{"id":"4088486546195490","authorId":"4088486546195490","name":"calvinchia","avatar":"https://static.laohu8.com/default-avatar.jpg","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4088486546195490","idStr":"4088486546195490"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"nice","listText":"nice","text":"nice","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/149472663","repostId":"2149341569","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":513,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}