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KeN3

KeN3

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2021-09-03

What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall

What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>

2021-08-23

Unfortunately not invested

NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote>

2021-09-09

Sea of red today.....

Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote>

2021-08-15

No wonder price is going up

Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote>

2021-10-04

Prices moving up so fast

Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote>

2021-08-17

Still moving up....

Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>

2021-08-24

If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-21

Doesn’t sound too good

Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>

2021-08-22

Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?

抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-08-03

Is it over priced now to enter the market?

抱歉，原内容已删除

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far so good","listText":"So far so good","text":"So far so good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/690533774","repostId":"607944827","repostType":1,"repost":{"id":607944827,"gmtCreate":1639481361363,"gmtModify":1639504322704,"author":{"id":"3527667618821228","authorId":"3527667618821228","name":"MillionaireTiger","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8901a3026957857b6996ae953d595bee","crmLevel":1,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"3527667618821228","idStr":"3527667618821228"},"themes":[],"title":"Pfizer Announced its Acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals in a $6.7 Billion","htmlText":"Hey&nbsp;Tigers! 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Pfizer&nbsp;announced its&nbsp;acquisition&nbsp;of&nbsp;Arena Pharmaceuticals&nbsp;today in a&nbsp;$6.7 billion deal&nbsp;for the company’s research on inflammatory conditions affecting the stomach and intestine.&nbsp;Pfizer will pay Arena $100/share in cash. Shares of Arena stock nearly&nbsp;doubled&nbsp;yesterday as the company pursues treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, as well as other dermatological, gastrointestinal, and cardiac conditions — Arena’s etrasimod drug for ulcerative colitis/Crohn’s is currently in late-stage trials. The acquisition’s timing is no coincidence as Pfizer also investigates treatments for gastrointestinal conditions. Pfizer is on a roll, lately. In addition to the o","text":"Hey Tigers! Do you notice Pfizer's new play? Pfizer announced its acquisition of Arena Pharmaceuticals today in a $6.7 billion deal for the company’s research on inflammatory conditions affecting the stomach and intestine. Pfizer will pay Arena $100/share in cash. Shares of Arena stock nearly doubled yesterday as the company pursues treatments for ulcerative colitis and Crohn’s disease, as well as other dermatological, gastrointestinal, and cardiac conditions — Arena’s etrasimod drug for ulcerative colitis/Crohn’s is currently in late-stage trials. The acquisition’s timing is no coincidence as Pfizer also investigates treatments for gastrointestinal conditions. Pfizer is on a roll, lately. In addition to the o","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":2,"essential":1,"paper":2,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/607944827","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":0,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"subType":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2577,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":606733543,"gmtCreate":1638926403834,"gmtModify":1638926403969,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","listText":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","text":"Sold too early.. hopefully can buy in again","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/606733543","repostId":"1121607111","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1121607111","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1638924899,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1121607111?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-08 08:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1121607111","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesd","content":"<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL 3.55%) 股价周二上涨 3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价 171.18 美元，此前一位分析师为该股设定了目标价，创下了华尔街预期的新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 现在预计苹果股价将从之前预测的 164 美元升至 200 美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约 17% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，随着金融市场再次出现波动，交易员寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度有所缓解，从而有助于推动 iPhone 销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有充分反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着我们越来越接近这些产品成为现实，我们相信（苹果的）估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性，”休伯蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并占据了其行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，苹果的股价将在未来一年升至休伯蒂 200 美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Apple Stock Climbed to a New All-Time High Today<blockquote>为什么苹果股价今天攀升至历史新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-08 08:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p> <b>What happened</b></p><p><blockquote><b>发生了什么事</b></blockquote></p><p> Shares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.</p><p><blockquote>苹果 (AAPL 3.55%) 股价周二上涨 3.5%，至创纪录的收盘价 171.18 美元，此前一位分析师为该股设定了目标价，创下了华尔街预期的新高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>So what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>那又怎样</b></blockquote></p><p> Morgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.</p><p><blockquote>摩根士丹利分析师凯蒂·休伯蒂 (Katy Huberty) 现在预计苹果股价将从之前预测的 164 美元升至 200 美元。如果她是对的，投资者可以从今天的价格中获得大约 17% 的收益。</blockquote></p><p> Huberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.</p><p><blockquote>休伯蒂认为，随着金融市场再次出现波动，交易员寻找被认为是更安全投资的优质公司，苹果的股价将会上涨。她还预计苹果的供应链挑战将在未来几个季度有所缓解，从而有助于推动 iPhone 销量增长。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.</p><p><blockquote>此外，休伯蒂认为，苹果目前的股价并没有充分反映其创新能力。据报道，这家科技巨头正在开发增强现实产品和自动驾驶汽车技术，这可能会在预期上市日期之前提振投资者对其股票的需求。</blockquote></p><p> \"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.</p><p><blockquote>“随着我们越来越接近这些产品成为现实，我们相信（苹果的）估值需要反映这些未来机会的可选性，”休伯蒂说。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Now what</b></p><p><blockquote><b>现在呢</b></blockquote></p><p> Few companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.</p><p><blockquote>很少有公司能与苹果的创新记录相媲美。苹果一次又一次地创造出改变游戏规则的产品，并占据了其行业利润的最大份额。</blockquote></p><p> It's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.</p><p><blockquote>苹果完全有可能在增强现实和自动驾驶汽车技术领域再次做到这一点。反过来，可以想象，苹果的股价将在未来一年升至休伯蒂 200 美元的目标价，甚至可能更高。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/12/07/why-apple-stock-climbed-to-a-new-all-time-high-tod/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1121607111","content_text":"What happened\nShares of Apple ( AAPL 3.55% ) rose 3.5% to a record closing price of $171.18 on Tuesday, after an analyst placed a price target on the stock that represents a new high among Wall Street's estimates.\n\nSo what\nMorgan Stanley analyst Katy Huberty now sees Apple's shares rising to $200, up from a previous forecast of $164. If she's right, investors could enjoy gains of roughly 17% from today's price.\n\nHuberty sees Apple's share price rising as traders seek out high-quality companies that are thought to be safer investments, now that volatility has returned to the financial markets. She also expects Apple's supply chain challenges to abate in the coming quarters, thereby helping to drive iPhone sales higher.\n\nAdditionally, Huberty argues that Apple's current stock price does not fully reflect its ability to innovate. The tech giant is reportedly developing augmented reality products and self-driving vehicle technology, which could boost demand for its shares among investors ahead of their expected launch dates.\n\n\"As we get closer to these products becoming a reality, we believe [Apple's] valuation would need to reflect the optionality of these future opportunities,\" Huberty said.\n\nNow what\nFew companies match Apple's track record of innovation. Time and again, Apple has created game-changing products that have gone on to capture the lion's share of their industries' profits.\n\nIt's entirely possible that Apple could do so again in the realms of augmented reality and autonomous vehicle technology. In turn, it's conceivable that Apple's share price will ascend to Huberty's $200 price target -- and perhaps even higher -- in the coming year.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2762,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":829635229,"gmtCreate":1633496502532,"gmtModify":1633497112727,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Stocks to look out for","listText":"Stocks to look out for","text":"Stocks to look out for","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/829635229","repostId":"1123518290","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3306,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":820917665,"gmtCreate":1633340319602,"gmtModify":1633340319808,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prices moving up so fast","listText":"Prices moving up so fast","text":"Prices moving up so fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820917665","repostId":"1137835462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137835462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633334786,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137835462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137835462","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record el","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六表示，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要求员工“超级硬核”推动季度末交付后，该公司第三季度电动汽车的交付量创下历史新高，超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，7 月至 9 月期间，其整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了 20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>7 月至 9 月季度，特斯拉在全球交付了 241,300 辆汽车，同比增长 73%。根据路孚特的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付 229,242 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-04 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六表示，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要求员工“超级硬核”推动季度末交付后，该公司第三季度电动汽车的交付量创下历史新高，超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，7 月至 9 月期间，其整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了 20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>7 月至 9 月季度，特斯拉在全球交付了 241,300 辆汽车，同比增长 73%。根据路孚特的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付 229,242 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137835462","content_text":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.\nTesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. \nTesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":889890683,"gmtCreate":1631128608642,"gmtModify":1632884478403,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sea of red today.....","listText":"Sea of red today.....","text":"Sea of red today.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889890683","repostId":"1152303824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152303824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631113047,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152303824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152303824","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nI","content":"<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是加密货币，今天早上美国股市似乎正在遭受猴子锤击。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生明显延迟<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>- 尽管一些人指出，震荡的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为它可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma所指出的，<b>有一个主要的拐点（支撑），特别是在4490，主要的支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种根本性的推动才能突破这一水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，股价可能会变得 “活跃”，但我们认为股价不会大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 22:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是加密货币，今天早上美国股市似乎正在遭受猴子锤击。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生明显延迟<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>- 尽管一些人指出，震荡的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为它可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma所指出的，<b>有一个主要的拐点（支撑），特别是在4490，主要的支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种根本性的推动才能突破这一水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，股价可能会变得 “活跃”，但我们认为股价不会大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152303824","content_text":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nIt is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from anydebt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.\nThe dollar is spiking at the same time...\nAs SpotGamma notes,there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440.\nWe think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.\nIn other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (>1%).\nThe big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":880126929,"gmtCreate":1631026175861,"gmtModify":1632904489498,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","listText":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance&nbsp;","text":"Not invested enough before this rise. Will need to buy in more to see the significance","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/880126929","repostId":"1148433063","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2478,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":815352738,"gmtCreate":1630648763424,"gmtModify":1631883982194,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","listText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","text":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815352738","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":812504578,"gmtCreate":1630593141994,"gmtModify":1632471149019,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow... will that really happen?","listText":"Wow... will that really happen?","text":"Wow... will that really happen?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/812504578","repostId":"1131318558","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1131318558","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630591645,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1131318558?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-02 22:07","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1131318558","media":"Thestreet","summary":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock  finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall ","content":"<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Bear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBear Attack: Could Apple Stock Really Drop 40%?<blockquote>熊市攻击：苹果股票真的会下跌40%吗？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Thestreet</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-02 22:07</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?</p><p><blockquote>两名给予苹果股票卖出评级的华尔街分析师之一认输了。另一位人士仍然认为 AAPL 股价可能会下跌 40%。相当大的下行风险现实吗？</blockquote></p><p> On the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock&nbsp;(<b>AAPL</b>)&nbsp;finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still&nbsp;sees&nbsp;shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.</p><p><blockquote>9月的第一天，华尔街罕见的空头之一苹果股票（<b>苹果</b>）最终屈服并降低了卖出评级。剩下的最后一只股票仍然预计股价将跌至 90 美元的目标价，损失风险约为 40%。</blockquote></p><p> Could New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.</p><p><blockquote>新街的皮埃尔-费拉古（Pierre Ferragu）是华尔街仅存的苹果熊，他对看涨期权的看法是否正确？这位苹果专家更仔细地研究了这个论点。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why bearish on Apple?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么看空苹果？</b></blockquote></p><p> The core of Pierre’s bearish argument&nbsp;seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.</p><p><blockquote>皮埃尔看跌论点的核心似乎是 iPhone。这位分析师将即将到来的设备发布称为 “12S 周期”，认为苹果 iPhone 升级浪潮中最精彩的部分，即所谓的 5G 超级周期，已经被抛在了后视镜里。</blockquote></p><p> New Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the&nbsp;opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:</p><p><blockquote>New Street同意这样的观点，即强劲的iPhone 12周期推动了智能手机销售，留下了未来的需求缺口。有趣的是，这与看涨的韦德布什分析师丹·艾夫斯（Dan Ives）的观点完全相反，他在接受苹果专家采访时说道：</blockquote></p><p>   “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”  Still on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.</p><p><blockquote>“华尔街低估的是这个超级周期有多么庞大和漫长。[...]在未来两三年内，5G 不会被完全普及，直到网络建成。在中国（5G 基础设施更加先进），iPhone 12，尤其是更大尺寸的专业版，确实卖得非常好。”Ferragu 先生仍然在 iPhone 上，早在 4 月份就列出了他对 2022 年的期望（我不知道从那时起有任何修订）。他认为 iPhone 出货量将达到 1.9 亿部，这意味着该部门的收入约为 1500 亿美元，比 COVID-19 水平每年小幅增长 5%。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Could AAPL sink 40%?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果能下跌40%吗？</b></blockquote></p><p> Now, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).</p><p><blockquote>现在，让我们动笔。要使苹果股票的估值达到每股 90 美元，需要发生两件事之一：要么财务业绩需要落后于普遍预期，要么估值需要收缩（或两者兼而有之）。</blockquote></p><p> On results,Wall Street currently sees&nbsp;fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.</p><p><blockquote>从业绩来看，华尔街目前预计 2022 财年每股收益将达到 5.63 美元，与迄今为止令人印象深刻的 2021 财年基本持平。因此，AAPL 要想降价 40%，明年的盈利需要大幅低于市场预期，至少低几美元。我觉得这不太可能。</blockquote></p><p> On valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.</p><p><blockquote>根据估值，AAPL 目前的 2021 财年市盈率为 27 倍。假设未来的结果与共识一致，该倍数需要降至 16 倍左右，AAPL 股价才能跌至 90 美元。该股的远期市盈率多年来从未如此之低。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Apple Maven’s take</b></p><p><blockquote><b>苹果专家的看法</b></blockquote></p><p> I find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.</p><p><blockquote>我发现苹果的估值再次达到每股90美元是非常不可能的，如果不是几乎不可能的话。在我看来，在苹果公司过去六个月上涨了 25% 之后，新街目前对该股的目标价已经过时了，这更合理。</blockquote></p><p> Therefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.</p><p><blockquote>因此，如果华尔街最后一位看空苹果公司的人最终（很快？）屈服于他的下行信念，至少在他目前的目标价方面是这样，我不会感到惊讶。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40\">Thestreet</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"source_url":"https://www.thestreet.com/apple/stock/bear-attack-could-apple-stock-really-drop-40","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1131318558","content_text":"One of two Wall Street analysts that had a sell rating on Apple stock threw in the towel. The other still thinks that AAPL shares could drop 40%. Is the sizable downside risk realistic?\nOn the first day of September, one of the rare Wall Street bears on Apple stock (AAPL) finally gave in and dropped his sell rating. The last remaining one still sees shares dropping to a price target of $90, representing risk of loss of around 40%.\nCould New Street’s Pierre Ferragu, the last remaining Apple bear on Wall Street, be right about his downside call? The Apple Maven looks a bit closer at the argument.\nWhy bearish on Apple?\nThe core of Pierre’s bearish argument seems to be the iPhone. The analyst has called the upcoming device launch a “12S cycle”, arguing that the best of Apple’s iPhone upgrade wave,the so-called 5G super cycle, has been left in the rearview mirror.\nNew Street subscribes to the view that the strong iPhone 12 cycle has pulled forward smartphone sales, leaving a gap in demand going forward. Interestingly, this is exactly the opposite opinion of bullish Wedbush analyst Dan Ives, who said the following during an interview with the Apple Maven:\n\n “What the Street underestimates is how massive and elongated this super cycle is. […] 5G does not get fully embraced for the next two or three years, until the networks are built out. In China [where the 5G infrastructure is further ahead], the iPhone 12, especially the larger Pro versions, really sold extremely well.”\n\nStill on the iPhone, Mr. Ferragu laid out his expectations for 2022 back in April (I am unaware of revisions since then). He believes that iPhone shipments will reach 190 million units, suggesting segment revenues of around $150 billion – a modest annual increase of 5% from COVID-19 levels.\nCould AAPL sink 40%?\nNow, let’s put pen to paper. For Apple stock to be valued at $90 apiece, one of two things would need to happen: either financial performance would need to lag consensus expectations, or valuations would need to contract (or a combination of both).\nOn results,Wall Street currently sees fiscal 2022 EPS landing at $5.63, roughly flat against a 2021 that has been impressive so far. For AAPL to drop 40% in price, therefore, next-year earnings would need to miss consensus substantially, by at least a couple of dollars. I find this highly unlikely.\nOn valuations, AAPL currently trades at a fiscal 2021 earnings multiple of 27 times. Assuming consensus-matching results in the future, this multiple would need to drop to about 16 times for AAPL shares to sink to $90. The stock’s forward P/E has not been this low in years.\nThe Apple Maven’s take\nI find it very improbable, if not virtually impossible, for Apple to ever be valued at $90 per share again. It is much more reasonable, in my opinion, that New Street’s current price target on the stock is simply stale, following AAPL’s 25% rally in the past six months.\nTherefore, I would not be surprised to see Wall Street’s last AAPL bear eventually (soon?) give in on his downside convictions, at least in what pertains to his current price target.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2516,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670485,"gmtCreate":1630407862347,"gmtModify":1633678297877,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Who are the buyers?","listText":"Who are the buyers?","text":"Who are the buyers?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670485","repostId":"1166793997","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1166793997","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630396480,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1166793997?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-31 15:54","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉最终可能会在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1166793997","media":"Benzinga","summary":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the ","content":"<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口关税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1606299360108","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉最终可能会在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla Could Get Partial Tax Breaks In India After All: Report<blockquote>特斯拉最终可能会在印度获得部分税收减免：报告</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Benzinga</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-31 15:54</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><div> India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials. What Happened:Various stakeholders...</p><p><blockquote><div>据《经济时报》周一援引官员的话报道，印度可能会向特斯拉公司提供部分进口关税减免，以将电动汽车运往印度。发生了什么：各种利益相关者……</div></blockquote></p><p>  <a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页链接</a>  </div> </p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">网页连接</a></blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report\">Benzinga</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.benzinga.com/news/21/08/22731456/tesla-could-get-partial-tax-breaks-in-india-after-all-report","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1166793997","content_text":"India could offer Tesla Inc partial relief on import duties to get electric vehicles shipped to the country, The Economic Times reported on Monday, citing officials.\nWhat Happened:Various stakeholders in the government are open to providing tax breaks but the Elon Musk-led company needs to furnish detailed investment plans first before any decision is taken on the government's part.\n“We can offer some relief... but we need to know what their plans are,” an unnamed official told ET.\nTesla claimed it procures components worth $100 million from India and suggested that figure would increase following any tax concessions, according to the report.\nThe EV maker plans to make significant direct investments in sales, service, and charging infrastructure and evaluate broader investments in manufacturing once it gets the rebates.\nWhy It Matters:The back-and-forth comes after Musk criticized India’s restrictive policies and tweeted to say that, while Tesla wants to make cars in the country, the import duties there are the highest in the world.\nThe Palo Alto, California-based company had in a letter to India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi sought a reduction in import duties on electric cars to 40% from the current 60% to 100%.\nTesla had also requested to scrap the 10% social welfare surcharge that is levied on all imported cars.\nPrice Action:Tesla shares closed 2.67% higher at $730.91 on Monday.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3975,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":818670841,"gmtCreate":1630407820583,"gmtModify":1633678298303,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Wow","listText":"Wow","text":"Wow","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/818670841","repostId":"1117204549","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3982,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834187159,"gmtCreate":1629780469071,"gmtModify":1633682473306,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","listText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","text":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834187159","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835592050,"gmtCreate":1629726074670,"gmtModify":1633682917642,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unfortunately not invested","listText":"Unfortunately not invested","text":"Unfortunately not invested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835592050","repostId":"1105547841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105547841","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629726022,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105547841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105547841","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","content":"<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，英伟达股价上涨近 3%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-23 21:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，英伟达股价上涨近 3%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105547841","content_text":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832184602,"gmtCreate":1629598650206,"gmtModify":1633683864902,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","listText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","text":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832184602","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836479560,"gmtCreate":1629518584950,"gmtModify":1633684279147,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Doesn’t sound too good","listText":"Doesn’t sound too good","text":"Doesn’t sound too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836479560","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; 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}\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833717639,"gmtCreate":1629262897921,"gmtModify":1633686114799,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Loved using their phones and products","listText":"Loved using their phones and products","text":"Loved using their phones and products","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833717639","repostId":"2160781981","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":869,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":833717972,"gmtCreate":1629262850196,"gmtModify":1633686115248,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","listText":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","text":"Still a good stock to get, but what price?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":1,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/833717972","repostId":"2160207426","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1080,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":839812020,"gmtCreate":1629140301260,"gmtModify":1633687132357,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still moving up....","listText":"Still moving up....","text":"Still moving up....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839812020","repostId":"1135212237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135212237","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629125001,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135212237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135212237","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135212237","content_text":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830796407,"gmtCreate":1629096832509,"gmtModify":1633687424877,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Bleeding in progress&nbsp;","listText":"Bleeding in progress&nbsp;","text":"Bleeding in progress","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":0,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830796407","repostId":"2159241177","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1147,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830065575,"gmtCreate":1628994251797,"gmtModify":1633688108277,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No wonder price is going up","listText":"No wonder price is going up","text":"No wonder price is going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830065575","repostId":"2159321288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321288","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628990553,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159321288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321288","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and","content":"<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：古格）在过去的三年里。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周提出的一项法案寻求更广泛地改变苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式，Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>Munster指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和Google Play Store合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序中明确做广告，以便消费者可以在应用程序商店或谷歌Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买 30% 的收费率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案必须得到众议院和参议院的批准才能成为法律。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>监管不会自动否定：</b>明斯特说，监管的最终结果对大型科技公司来说并不自动是负面的，因为当激励措施发生变化时，意想不到的后果往往会发生。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服并将接受率从 30% 降至 10%（这种可能性不大），它最终仍然可以赚更多的钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌的理由更充分，因为它们创建了移动应用商店并负责维护它们。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这位分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而伤害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。这位分析师表示，如果任何法规确实成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除他们的反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出的最简单方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌 0.14%，至 149.10 美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至 2,768.12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>二</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-15 09:22</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：古格）在过去的三年里。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周提出的一项法案寻求更广泛地改变苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式，Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>Munster指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和Google Play Store合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序中明确做广告，以便消费者可以在应用程序商店或谷歌Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买 30% 的收费率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案必须得到众议院和参议院的批准才能成为法律。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>监管不会自动否定：</b>明斯特说，监管的最终结果对大型科技公司来说并不自动是负面的，因为当激励措施发生变化时，意想不到的后果往往会发生。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服并将接受率从 30% 降至 10%（这种可能性不大），它最终仍然可以赚更多的钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌的理由更充分，因为它们创建了移动应用商店并负责维护它们。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这位分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而伤害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。这位分析师表示，如果任何法规确实成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除他们的反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出的最简单方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌 0.14%，至 149.10 美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至 2,768.12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>二</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321288","content_text":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.\nWith a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.\nWhat the New Legislation Is All About:  The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.\nThis will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.\nThe proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.\nRegulation Not Automatically Negative:  The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.\nEven if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.\nApple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.\nAdditionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.\nMunster's Take On Potential Regulation:  The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.\n\"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.\nApple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.\nLatest Ratings for AAPL\n\n\n\nDate\nFirm\nAction\nFrom\nTo\n\n\n\n\nJul 2021\nLoop Capital\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nDeutsche Bank\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nPiper Sandler\nMaintains\n\nOverweight","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":897641925,"gmtCreate":1628916176267,"gmtModify":1633688502893,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","listText":"Gotta keep eyes on it","text":"Gotta keep eyes on it","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/897641925","repostId":"2159655218","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":900,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"hots":[{"id":815352738,"gmtCreate":1630648763424,"gmtModify":1631883982194,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","listText":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","text":"What goes up will eventually come down. Just have to exit before the fall","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":4,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/815352738","repostId":"1115112299","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1115112299","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1630641559,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1115112299?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-03 11:59","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1115112299","media":"seekingalpha","summary":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>What Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat Will Happen When Trillions In Stimulus Run Out In 2022?<blockquote>当2022年数万亿美元的刺激计划用完时会发生什么？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">seekingalpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-03 11:59</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.</li>  <li>With expanded unemployment set to end, student loan &amp; mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.</li>  <li>In light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.</li>  <li>I break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.</li> </ul> <b>Introduction</b></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>2021年，美国经济和股市受益于前所未有的刺激措施。</li><li>随着失业率扩大即将结束，学生贷款和抵押贷款延期即将结束，以及企业税率可能上调，2022 年股市盈利预期可能过高。</li><li>有鉴于此，整个股市面临着一个没有吸引力的风险回报主张。</li><li>我与专家价值/股息投资者山姆·科瓦奇（Sam Kovacs）分析了可能性和游戏计划。</li></ul><b>介绍</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>美国政府采取了前所未有的财政和货币刺激措施，以帮助经济度过新冠肺炎疫情。值得注意的例子包括多轮刺激检查、学生贷款暂停、抵押贷款延期/暂停驱逐、购买力平价和提高失业救济金。到目前为止，这一努力似乎取得了成功，尽管批评人士指出，这导致了通货膨胀的大幅上升。然而，政治和经济现实是，美国不可能永远维持3万亿美元的赤字，至少每个人都不会通过相对于收入更高的消费价格来隐性支付。</blockquote></p><p> The weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&amp;P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&amp;P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&amp;P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.</p><p><blockquote>大量证据表明，物价上涨速度快于工资上涨速度。反过来，政府已经介入，用刺激支付来填补这一缺口，但万亿美元的问题是，当经济不得不依靠自己的生产力运行时——而不是依靠临时转移支付——会发生什么。2021年，由于被压抑的需求和刺激，标普500组件预计将打破一年内最高收入的记录（2021年每股200美元至205美元之间，而2019年之前的记录为163美元）。华尔街分析师还预计标普500 2022 年每股收益约为 215 美元，这将是又一个纪录。当你计算生产率和经济产出时，情况并没有那么好，这有助于解释为什么现在有如此多的商品和服务短缺。如果你认为名义经济产出的变化更能表明企业在中期可以赚取多少钱（剔除消费者花费临时转移支付的影响），你会得到标普500的收益数字接近180美元，这比华尔街目前的预期低约15%。</blockquote></p><p> Putting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&amp;P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellow<i>Seeking Alpha</i>authorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.</p><p><blockquote>给盈利带来进一步压力的是潜在的公司税从21%提高到25%，在其他条件相同的情况下，这将使标普500的盈利减少5%。政治博彩市场显示，这大约有50/50的机会成为lawat时刻。随着许多投资者轻松赚钱，涌入低信念、高势头的股票，解除刺激措施的后果可能会对他们的投资组合余额造成冲击。帮助我理解刺激放松是伙计<i>寻求阿尔法</i>作者萨姆·科瓦奇。尽管山姆和我住在德克萨斯州郊区，相隔地球的另一边，但我对市场的看法却惊人地相似，都被具有稳定收益和股息的优质股票所吸引。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>在美联储对大流行病做出反应的最初几个月里，我担心他们会进退两难。我不想站在鲍威尔的立场上，但话又说回来，我会考虑接受的政府工作并不多。在过早推出刺激措施和冒着通胀失控的风险之间取得平衡并非易事。政府研究了之前的崩溃情况，并决定冒通胀风险是正确的选择。</blockquote></p><p> Keep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.</p><p><blockquote>不断告诉人们这是 “暂时的”，而且肯定会是。但任何参加过 Econ 101 的人都知道，通货膨胀会自食其力。起初，公司是反动的，但后来他们在定价措施上变得积极主动。这里有几个片段。</blockquote></p><p> From Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自荷美尔 (HRL) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>We have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>我们在整个投资组合中采取了许多定价措施来保护盈利能力。这些行动将在第三季度初进行，可能会采取额外的定价行动。</i></blockquote></p><p> From Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:</p><p><blockquote>来自康尼格拉 (CAG) 的最新电话：</blockquote></p><p> <i>And the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>简短的回答是肯定的。事实上，我们在本季度开始对一些产品实施与我们经历的初始通货膨胀相关的定价行动。对这些行动数据的早期解读是，到目前为止，我们的弹性看起来不错。我们将推出更多定价。</i></blockquote></p><p> There will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.</p><p><blockquote>未来几个季度食品通货膨胀不会短缺。油价仍有几个季度的疲软可比价格，这继续导致总体通胀率上升。</blockquote></p><p> Food &amp; transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.</p><p><blockquote>食物和交通以及住房是美国家庭的主要开支。对于1/6的成年人，你也可以申请学生贷款。在各种刺激措施的支持下，美国消费者已经能够吸收通货膨胀。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.</p><p><blockquote>但刺激措施不可能永远持续下去。随着达美航空减缓（而不是扼杀）复苏，其中一部分正在延长。当不同形式的刺激消失时会发生什么？这就是我们将在文章的其余部分讨论的内容。</blockquote></p><p> The Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium</p><p><blockquote>暂停驱逐/止赎</blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>止赎又开始了，最高法院最近推翻了疾病预防控制中心实施的暂停驱逐令。根据我最近的统计，目前大约有150万个家庭参与了延期计划（即不支付抵押贷款），而美国大约有5000万个抵押贷款。止赎是一个过程，而不是一个事件，最常见的结果是人们拖欠还款，试图与银行合作6-12个月，然后最终卖掉，收回股权，搬到更便宜的地方。2008年的问题是借款人的抵押贷款资产为负，因此它缩短了这一过程。现在情况并非如此——我不认为止赎会给经济带来系统性风险。在美国，大约有600-700万套房屋在典型的一年内被买卖，这意味着在真空中，大多数落后的人可以在6-12个月内出售，这对于那些与房屋短缺作斗争的人和那些无法支付自己拥有的房屋的人来说将是双赢的。美联储缩减规模可能会使情况变得复杂。如果抵押贷款利率回升至过去 10 年的平均约 4%，同时人们正在抛售他们一直在忍耐的房屋，价格将会下降更多。</blockquote></p><p> Evictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.</p><p><blockquote>驱逐更加混乱——有数百万人不付房租，靠多余的钱生活。当他们不得不在其他地方重新开始支付房租时，他们的家庭预算将会急剧缩水。大约2-3%的美国家庭严重拖欠房租，所以我预计会有很多正式和非正式的（现金换钥匙）驱逐。这必然会对消费者支出产生负面影响，而忽略刺激措施放松的盈利预测并没有恰当地说明这一点。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>正如洛根正确总结的那样，这里的风险与其说是房地产市场，不如说是对消费的连锁反应。</blockquote></p><p> The end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.</p><p><blockquote>联邦驱逐暂停令的结束对可以恢复收取租金的公寓房地产投资信托基金来说是一个福音。然而，这并不意味着投资者应该蜂拥投资住宅房地产投资信托基金。如下图 Essex Property (ESS) 的 MAD 图表所示，已从严重低估回到历史上的高估。我们之前建议投资者卖出 ESS。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dc5c631a8b25f6a52735e699fbc69b29\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"293\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source:Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Looking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>看看街区的其他住宅房地产投资信托基金，也出现了同样的情况。AvalonBay Communities (AVB) 历来也被高估。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e17980a72bfba653b02553382a920419\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"315\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> None seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.</p><p><blockquote>相对于其历史正常价格范围，没有一家公司比卡姆登财产信托 (CPT) 更被高估，如果市场情绪发生变化，该公司很容易下跌 1/3。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/136a7707c3add17401e4dd4047278e14\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"303\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> I believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.</p><p><blockquote>我相信这笔交易已经通过了。我们大约一年前购买了ESS，并在过去的几个月里一直在出售它。</blockquote></p><p> Taking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.</p><p><blockquote>现在在这些行业获利了结是有道理的： “买谣言/卖新闻”。</blockquote></p><p> If we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.</p><p><blockquote>如果我们展望未来，我们会看到一个杠杆会给一部分人的消费带来压力。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Student Loan Forbearance</b></p><p><blockquote><b>学生贷款延期</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>拜登政府将学生贷款暂停期延长至2022年1月31日。美国六分之一的成年人有学生贷款，平均余额约为4万美元。大多数借款人年龄在 30 岁以下，这一群体的支出占收入的比例高于 50 岁的人为退休储蓄。六分之一的美国成年人平均每月支付400美元，大部分是用税后美元支付的，这就像反向刺激。有趣的是，我认识的有学生贷款的人目前几乎没有人在偿还贷款。他们从不偿还贷款中获得的额外资金通常要么用于消费，要么投资于加密货币，要么投资于游戏驿站（GME）等模因股票。这对消费者支出构成了相当大的威胁，而且没有简单的解决办法。美国民主党左翼希望取消大部分或全部学生贷款，但这样做的主要问题是，大部分债务由中产阶级和中上层专业人士持有，这将造成道德风险，并将财富从社会经济阶梯较低的人（例如，从事行业并缴纳所得税的人）重新分配给社会阶层较高的人（例如，负债累累的白领大学毕业生）。我们谈论的是超过 1.7 万亿美元的美国学生贷款，而在这 21 个月期间，那些欠下贷款的人通常不会偿还这些贷款。当这些因素再次发挥作用时，消费者支出不会比现在更高。2022 年的盈利预测大多对这一事实视而不见。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>当洛根和我最初讨论这篇文章时，这似乎是政府继续给予的最简单的刺激形式。由于大部分贷款都是联邦贷款，因此暂停还款并不会对任何人造成明显的伤害，以至于无法抱怨。由于发放并不直接，批评者也不像对经济刺激支票那样直言不讳。投入各种投资的钱，无论是股票还是加密货币，都会在他们不得不再次开始偿还债务时拿出来。这是否会对市场产生足够的影响值得怀疑，但随着大部分人口不得不恢复支付，零售模因股票最终可能会迎来清算的一天。取消暂停偿债的后果对很大一部分人来说将是严峻的。至少你还能在 AMC 影院（AMC）看电影。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Enhanced Unemployment &amp; Stimulus Checks</b></p><p><blockquote><b>加强失业和刺激支票</b></blockquote></p><p> Logan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.</p><p><blockquote>洛根-加剧的失业率将于9月6日到期，在那一周之后，有1100万人将无法获得失业救济。这是联邦政府每周向失业者发放的33亿美元，这反过来又比12个月前少得多。当它消失后，它将成为控制消费者支出的又一块拼图。在过去的18个月里，刺激支票是许多美国人的另一个收入来源。除了特朗普执政之前的付款之外，一个收入中位数的四口之家在3月份将获得5600美元的刺激支票。这些将不再流通，对于中等收入的美国人来说，这意味着他们将无法像以前那样花那么多钱。扩大的儿童税收抵免可能会弥补这一点，并且可能是一种更有效的提款方式，但它目前的形式也将于 12 月到期。</blockquote></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>失业率的上升将在几天内消失，我们很可能会看到 800 万正在找工作的美国人中的许多人最终会在 1000 万个职位空缺中找到一个。截至撰写本文时，工作数据将在接下来的几个小时内发布。强劲的就业数据可能会比预期更早启动美联储缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Conclusion: What Is Yet to Come?</b></p><p><blockquote><b>结论：什么还没有到来？</b></blockquote></p><p> <i>Logan–</i>High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.</p><p><blockquote><i>洛根-</i>亚马逊 (AMZN)、Zoom Video (ZM) 和 Peloton (PTON) 等公司高调的盈利低迷表明，至少在微观层面上，分析师认为，对于受益于疫情带来的暂时变化的公司来说，好日子将永远持续下去。这在宏观层面上是否属实是一种很大的可能性，而且根据今年剩余时间的盈利结果，这可能最终会成为现实。虽然市场价格一定会因此大幅下跌，但不可否认的是，在过去6-12个月里，市场的风险回报权衡已经恶化。如果可能的话，现在是降低风险的好时机。在我们两种观点中，一个好的辩护是投资于高质量的公司，而不是基本面平庸的热门高动量股票，并采取长远的眼光。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> <i>Sam–</i>The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.</p><p><blockquote><i>山姆–</i>通货膨胀列车已经离开车站。鲍威尔认为这是暂时的，我认为这可能是部分暂时的，但大量的财政刺激引发了一个通胀周期，通胀周期将在相当长的一段时间内保持在2%以上。Covid 德尔塔变异毒株软化了一些经济指标，如外出就餐或旅行，但由于该国的病例数已经达到顶峰，经济将继续升温。</blockquote></p><p> This will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.</p><p><blockquote>这将导致锥形。更高的利率，甚至是更高利率的预期，都会导致贴现率的变化，这是一种说未来利润毫无价值的花哨方式。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?</p><p><blockquote>投资者想仔细审视一下自己的投资组合，问问自己是否有不合理高估的头寸？</blockquote></p><p> No need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&amp;P 500 (SPY).</p><p><blockquote>无需关注市场的晦涩部分，这正在标普500（SPDR标普500指数ETF）上演。</blockquote></p><p> For instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.</p><p><blockquote>例如，我无法理解像 Intuit (INTU) 这样的股票目前的交易价格是 16 倍？即使按照其通常8-9倍销售额的高标准，这也是异常高的。将其与该股的历史股息进行比较，读数是惊人的。</blockquote></p><p> Investors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.</p><p><blockquote>投资者希望关注盈利能力强、运营规模大、估值相对较低的公司。</blockquote></p><p> Among those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.</p><p><blockquote>安进 (AMGN) 是排名前 100 的股票之一，该公司目前的收益率超过 3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/cd53f68bc9f02f82e05458098625b0a7\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"297\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <i>Source: Dividend Freedom Tribe</i></p><p><blockquote><i>资料来源：股息自由部落</i></blockquote></p><p> Philip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.</p><p><blockquote>菲利普莫里斯国际 (PM)、博通 (AVGO) 和摩根士丹利 (MS.PK) 相对于其历史估值也被低估。</blockquote></p><p> In such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.</p><p><blockquote>在这样的环境下，注重质量是必须的。关注价值紧随其后。我们希望以合理的价格收购具有增长前景的最优质资产。我们非常谨慎地认为，刺激措施的放松将打击消费，进而影响盈利结果。被高估的名字的重大失误意味着麻烦。当股票被高估时，负责任的做法是缩减股票的规模。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022\">seekingalpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","SPY":"标普500ETF",".DJI":"道琼斯",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index"},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4453272-what-will-happen-when-trillions-in-stimulus-runs-out-in-2022","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1115112299","content_text":"Summary\n\nThe US economy and stock market have benefitted from an unprecedented amount of stimulus in 2021.\nWith expanded unemployment set to end, student loan & mortgage forbearance to end, and a possible corporate tax rate hike on the horizon, it's possible 2022 earnings estimates for stocks are simply too high.\nIn light of this, the broad stock market faces an unattractive risk-reward proposition.\nI break down the possibilities and game plan with expert value/dividend investor Sam Kovacs.\n\nIntroduction\nLogan–The United States government has turned to an unprecedented amount of fiscal and monetary stimulus to help the economy through the COVID-19 pandemic. Notable examples include multiple rounds of stimulus checks, the student loan pause, mortgage forbearance/eviction moratorium, PPP, and enhanced unemployment benefits. So far, this effort seems to have been successful, although critics point out that it has resulted in significant increases in inflation. However, the political and economic reality is that the US can't run $3 trillion deficits forever, at least without everyone implicitly paying for it via higher consumer prices compared to their earnings.\nThe weight of theevidence suggeststhat prices are rising faster than wages. In turn, the government has stepped in to fill this gap with stimulus payments, but the trillion-dollar question is what happens when the economy has to run on its own productivity–rather than on temporary transfer payments. For 2021, thanks to pent-up demand and stimulus, S&P 500 components are expected to smash the record for the highest amount ever earned in a year (somewhere between $200 and $205 per share for 2021, vs. the previous record of $163 in 2019). Wall Street analysts additionally expect the S&P 500 to earn~$215 per share in 2022, which would be yet another record. When you pull numbers forproductivity and economic output, the picture isn't as great, which helps explain why there are so many shortages of goods and services right now. If you feel that the change in nominal economic output is more indicative of what corporations can earn over the medium term (taking away the impact of consumers spending temporary transfer payments), you get an earnings number for the S&P 500 closer to $180, which is about 15 percent lower than Wall Street is currently expecting.\nPutting further pressure on earnings is the potential corporate tax hike from 21 percent to 25 percent, which will decrease S&P 500 earnings by 5 percent, all else being equal. Political betting markets show that this has a roughly50/50 chance of becoming lawat the moment. With many investors making easy money piling into low-conviction, high momentum names, the consequences of unwinding stimulus could be a shock to their portfolio balances. Helping me make sense of the stimulus unwind is fellowSeeking AlphaauthorSam Kovacs.Although living halfway across the world from me here in suburban Texas, Sam and I think eerily alike about the markets, gravitating to high-quality stocks with solid earnings and dividends.\nSam–Within the first couple of months of the Fed’s reaction to the pandemic, I was concerned that they would be placing themselves between a rock and a hard place. I would not have wanted to be in Powell’s shoes, but then again there aren’t many government jobs I’d consider taking. Striking a balance between pulling stimulus too early and risking runaway inflation is no easy task. The government has looked to prior crashes and decided that risking inflation was the way to go.\nKeep telling the people that it is “transitory” and surely it will be. But anyone who has taken Econ 101 knows that inflation feeds on itself. At first, companies are reactionary, but then they become proactive in pricing measures. Here are a few snippets.\nFrom Hormel's (HRL) latestcall:\nWe have taken numerous pricing actions across the portfolio to protect profitability. The actions will take place early in the third quarter with additional pricing actions likely.\nFrom Conagra's (CAG) latestcall:\nAnd the short answer is yes. In fact, we began implementing pricing actions on some of our products in the quarter related to the initial inflation we experienced. The very early read on the data from those actions is that our elasticities look good so far. And we have more pricing coming.\nThere will be no shortage of inflation in food in upcoming quarters. Oil price still has a couple of quarters of weak comparables which continue to contribute to higher headline inflation rates.\nFood & transportation, along with housing are the major costs of US households. For1/6thof adults, you can throw in student loans as well. US consumers have been able to absorb the inflation on the back of various stimulus efforts.\nBut the stimulus can’t last forever. Part of it is being extended as Delta is slowing (not killing) the recovery. What happens when the different forms of stimulus fade? That’s what we’re going to look at in the rest of the article.\nThe Eviction/Foreclosure Moratorium\nLogan–Foreclosures have started again, and the Supreme Court recentlystruck downthe eviction moratorium imposed by the CDC. By my last count, there are about1.5 million householdswho are in forbearance programs at the moment (i.e. not paying their mortgages), against somewhere in the ballpark of 50 million mortgages in the US. Foreclosure is a process, not an event, and the most common outcome is that people get behind on their payments, try to work with the bank for 6-12 months, and then eventually sell, collect their equity, and move somewhere cheaper. The problem in 2008 was that borrowers had negative equity on their mortgages, so it short-circuited this process. This isn't the case now–I don't see a systematic risk to the economy from foreclosures. Around 6-7 million houses in the US are bought and sold in a typical year, meaning in a vacuum, most people who are behind could sell over a 6-12 month period, and it would be a win-win for those struggling with the shortage of houses to buy and those who can't make payments on the ones they own. The Fed taper might complicate this. If mortgage rates go back up to the ~4 percent they've averaged over the last 10 years at the same time people are unloading houses they've been in forbearance on, prices are going to come down more.\nEvictions are messier–there are millions of people not paying rent and living off the extra money. When they have to start paying rent again somewhere else, their household budgets are going to dramatically shrink. Roughly 2-3 percent of American households are significantly behind on rent, so I would expect a lot of both formal and informal (cash for keys) evictions. This has to negatively affect consumer spending, and earnings estimates that ignore the unwind of stimulus are not properly accounting for it.\nSam–The risk here is not so much on the real estate market, as Logan correctly summarized, but rather the knock-on effects on consumption.\nThe end of the federal eviction moratorium is a boon for apartment REITs which can resume collecting rent. However, that doesn’t mean investors should pile into residential REITs. have gone from deeply undervalued back to historically overvalued, as the below MAD Chart for Essex Property (ESS) shows. We previously suggested investors sell ESS.\n\nSource:Dividend Freedom Tribe\nLooking at the other residential REITs on the block, the same picture emerges. AvalonBay Communities (AVB) also is historically overvalued.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nNone seem more overvalued relative to their historical normal range of prices than Camden Property Trust (CPT) which could easily come down by 1/3rdon a change in sentiment.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nI believe that this trade has passed. We bought ESS about a year ago, and have been selling it throughout the past few months.\nTaking profits now in these industries makes sense: “buy the rumor/sell the news”.\nIf we’re looking ahead, we’re seeing one lever which will pressure consumption for a certain part of the population.\nStudent Loan Forbearance\nLogan–The Biden Administration extended the student loan pause until January 31, 2022. 1 in 6 adults in the US has student loans, with an average balance of ~$40,000. Most borrowers are under 30, a group that spends a higher percentage of their income than, say a 50-year old saving for retirement. Hit 1 in 6 American adults with an average$400 per month payment, paid with mostly post-tax dollars, and that's like stimulus in reverse. Anecdotally, almost no one I know who has student loans is currently paying them. The extra money they're getting from not paying loans is generally either being spent on consumption, invested in cryptocurrency, or in meme stocks like GameStop (GME). This is a decent threat to consumer spending, and there isn't an easy way out. The left wing of the Democratic Party in the US wants to cancel most or all student loans, but the main problem with this is that much of the debt is held by middle and upper-middle-class professionals, which would create a moral hazard as well as redistribute wealth from people lower on the socioeconomic ladder (for example, people who work in trades and pay their income taxes) to those of higher social class (for example, indebted white-collar college graduates). We're talking$1.7+ trillion in US student loansthat are generally not being serviced by those who owe it for this 21 month period. When those kick in again, consumer spending is not going to be higher than it is now. 2022 earnings estimates are mostly blind to this fact.\nSam–When Logan and I initially discussed this article, this seemed to be the easiest form of stimulus for the government to keep giving. Since most of the loans are federal, a pause on the payments doesn’t explicitly hurt anyone enough to complain. And since the handouts are not direct, critics aren’t as vocal as they are with stimulus checks. The money which has been put into various investments, be it stock or crypto, will come out when they have to start servicing debt again. Whether this has enough of an impact to move markets is questionable, but the retail meme stocks could finally have their day of reckoning as a large portion of the population has to resume payments. The aftermath of removing the pause on debt servicing will be harsh for an important part of the population. At least you’ll still be able to watch a movie at AMC Theater (AMC).\nEnhanced Unemployment & Stimulus Checks\nLogan- Enhanced unemployment runs out on September 6, and there are 11 million people who won't be getting it after that week. This is $3.3 billion per week that the Federal government is dripping out to unemployed persons, which in turn is a lot less than it was 12 months ago. When it's gone, it's yet another piece of the puzzle that will rein in consumer spending. Stimulus checks were another source of income for many Americans over the last 18 months. A family of 4 making the median income would have seen a stimulus check in March of $5,600, in addition to the prior payments under the Trump Administration. These aren't going to be going out anymore, and for middle-income Americans, this means that they won't be able to spend as much money as they have before. The expanded child tax credit may make up for this and is probably a more efficient means of getting money out, but it expires also in its current form in December.\nSam–Enhanced Unemployment is running out in a few days, we’re likely to see many of the 8 million Americans who are looking for a job finally find one amongthe 10 million job openings. As of the time of writing, job data is to be posted in the next few hours. Strong job numbers could kick off a Fed taper sooner than expected.\nConclusion: What Is Yet to Come?\nLogan–High profile earnings misses from the likes of Amazon (AMZN), Zoom Video (ZM), and Peloton (PTON) suggest that at least on a micro level, analysts assumed that good times would last forever for companies that benefitted from temporary changes resulting from the pandemic. Whether this is true on a macro level is a strong possibility, and depending on how the rest of earnings results come in for the rest of the year, it may end up becoming a reality. While it isn't set in stone that the market should necessarily go down significantly in price because of this, it's hard to deny that the risk-reward tradeoff for the market has deteriorated over the past 6-12 months. Now is a good time to dial back risk, if at all possible. A good defense, in both of our views, is to invest in high-quality companies rather than popular high-momentum stocks with middling fundamentals, and to take a long-term perspective.\nSam–The inflation train has left the station. Powell believes it is transitory, I believe that it might be partially transitory, but the abundance of fiscal stimulus has kicked up a cycle of inflation which will be above 2% for quite some time. The Covid delta variant has softened some economic indicators like eating out in restaurants or travel, but as the country’s case count is already peaking, the economy is set to continue heating up.\nThis will lead to a taper. Higher rates, or even the expectation of higher rates, will lead to a change in discount rates, which is a fancy way to say future profits are worthless.\nInvestors want to take a hard look at their portfolios and ask whether they have positions which are overvalued beyond reason?\nNo need to look at obscure parts of the market, this is playing out in the S&P 500 (SPY).\nFor instance, I cannot fathom how a stock like Intuit (INTU) currently trades at 16x sales? Even on its lofty usual measure of 8-9x sales, this is unusually high. Compare it to the stock's historical dividend, and the reading is off the wall.\nInvestors want to focus on companies with strong earnings power, large-scale operations, which are trading at relatively cheap valuations.\nAmong those that come to mind in the top 100 stocks are Amgen (AMGN) which currently yields over 3%.\n\nSource: Dividend Freedom Tribe\nPhilip Morris International (PM), Broadcom (AVGO), and Morgan Stanley (MS.PK) are also undervalued relative to their historical valuations.\nIn such an environment, focus on quality is a must. Focus on value is a close second. We’re looking to buy the highest quality assets with growth prospects at a decent price. We’re very cautious that stimulus unwinding will hit consumption which will hit earning results. Big misses from overvalued names spells trouble. The responsible thing to do is to scale out of stocks when they become overvalued.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2165,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":835592050,"gmtCreate":1629726074670,"gmtModify":1633682917642,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Unfortunately not invested","listText":"Unfortunately not invested","text":"Unfortunately not invested","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":11,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/835592050","repostId":"1105547841","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1105547841","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629726022,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1105547841?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-23 21:40","market":"us","language":"en","title":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1105547841","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","content":"<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，英伟达股价上涨近 3%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nNVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high<blockquote>英伟达股价上涨近3%创新高</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-23 21:40</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high&nbsp;in Monday morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>周一早盘交易中，英伟达股价上涨近 3%，创下新高。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8075cefb2210baeb244ede722b51d9bc\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"NVDA":"英伟达"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1105547841","content_text":"NVIDIA shares rose nearly 3% to a new high in Monday morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"NVDA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1006,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":889890683,"gmtCreate":1631128608642,"gmtModify":1632884478403,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Sea of red today.....","listText":"Sea of red today.....","text":"Sea of red today.....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":8,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/889890683","repostId":"1152303824","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1152303824","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1631113047,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1152303824?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-09-08 22:57","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1152303824","media":"zerohedge","summary":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nI","content":"<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是加密货币，今天早上美国股市似乎正在遭受猴子锤击。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生明显延迟<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>- 尽管一些人指出，震荡的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为它可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma所指出的，<b>有一个主要的拐点（支撑），特别是在4490，主要的支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种根本性的推动才能突破这一水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，股价可能会变得 “活跃”，但我们认为股价不会大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Stocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nStocks Are Suddenly Puking...<blockquote>股票突然呕吐……</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">zerohedge</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-09-08 22:57</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.</p><p><blockquote>昨天是加密货币，今天早上美国股市似乎正在遭受猴子锤击。</blockquote></p><p> It is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from any<b>debt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements</b>- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.</p><p><blockquote>目前尚不清楚下降的催化剂是什么——它的发生明显延迟<b>债务上限谈话或曼钦的声明</b>- 尽管一些人指出，震荡的激增可能会引发一些疲软，因为它可能会使美联储更接近缩减规模。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/b3e5ef549e107c935e4c60595e1332e2\" tg-width=\"1198\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">The dollar is spiking at the same time...</p><p><blockquote>与此同时，美元正在飙升……</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3b472f02fa36cafd99491efa8113cbde\" tg-width=\"944\" tg-height=\"530\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">As&nbsp;SpotGamma notes,<b>there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440</b>.</p><p><blockquote>正如SpotGamma所指出的，<b>有一个主要的拐点（支撑），特别是在4490，主要的支撑在4440</b>.</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/9295f0b196cb1e2e6c014b1dcdaf3a95\" tg-width=\"1067\" tg-height=\"528\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">We think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.</p><p><blockquote>我们认为需要某种根本性的推动才能突破这一水平。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/514c13b2f8c4c99c5cd3eace81c51347\" tg-width=\"1280\" tg-height=\"710\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">In other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (&gt;1%).</p><p><blockquote>换句话说，股价可能会变得 “活跃”，但我们认为股价不会大幅下跌（&gt;1%）。</blockquote></p><p> The big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?</p><p><blockquote>最大的问题是——罗伯特·卡普兰会怎么做？</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29\">zerohedge</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF"},"source_url":"https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks-are-suddenly-puking?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+zerohedge%2Ffeed+%28zero+hedge+-+on+a+long+enough+timeline%2C+the+survival+rate+for+everyone+drops+to+zero%29","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1152303824","content_text":"Yesterday it was cryptos, this morning it appears US equities are in line for the monkeyhammering.\nIt is unclear what the catalyst for the drop was - it occurred with significant delay from anydebt ceiling talk or Manchin's statements- though some are noting the surge in JOLTS could have triggered some weakness as it may bring The Fed closer to tapering.\nThe dollar is spiking at the same time...\nAs SpotGamma notes,there is a major inflection point (support) specifically at 4490 and major support at 4440.\nWe think it would take some type of fundamental push to break that level.\nIn other words, things could get “chippy” but we don’t see things positioned for a large drawdown (>1%).\nThe big question is - What will Robert Kaplan do?","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"SPY":0.9,".SPX":0.9,".DJI":0.9,".IXIC":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2729,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":830065575,"gmtCreate":1628994251797,"gmtModify":1633688108277,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"No wonder price is going up","listText":"No wonder price is going up","text":"No wonder price is going up","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/830065575","repostId":"2159321288","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"2159321288","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Stock Market Quotes, Business News, Financial News, Trading Ideas, and Stock Research by Professionals","home_visible":0,"media_name":"Benzinga Earnings","id":"1052270027","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa"},"pubTimestamp":1628990553,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/2159321288?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-15 09:22","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=2159321288","media":"Benzinga Earnings","summary":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and","content":"<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：古格）在过去的三年里。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周提出的一项法案寻求更广泛地改变苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式，Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>Munster指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和Google Play Store合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序中明确做广告，以便消费者可以在应用程序商店或谷歌Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买 30% 的收费率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案必须得到众议院和参议院的批准才能成为法律。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>监管不会自动否定：</b>明斯特说，监管的最终结果对大型科技公司来说并不自动是负面的，因为当激励措施发生变化时，意想不到的后果往往会发生。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服并将接受率从 30% 降至 10%（这种可能性不大），它最终仍然可以赚更多的钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌的理由更充分，因为它们创建了移动应用商店并负责维护它们。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这位分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而伤害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。这位分析师表示，如果任何法规确实成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除他们的反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出的最简单方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌 0.14%，至 149.10 美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至 2,768.12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>二</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Regulatory Risk Is A Silver Lining For Apple And Google<blockquote>为什么监管风险是苹果和谷歌的一线希望</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<div class=\"head\" \">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/d08bf7808052c0ca9deb4e944cae32aa);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Benzinga Earnings </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-15 09:22</p>\n</div>\n</div>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as <b>Apple Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: AAPL) and <b>Alphabet Inc. </b>(NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.</p><p><blockquote>监管的威胁一直笼罩着大型科技巨头，例如<b>苹果公司。</b>（纳斯达克：AAPL）和<b>Alphabet公司。</b>（纳斯达克：GOOGL）（纳斯达克：古格）在过去的三年里。</blockquote></p><p> With a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.</p><p><blockquote>随着本周提出的一项法案寻求更广泛地改变苹果和谷歌运营各自应用商店的方式，Loup Funds管理合伙人Gene Munster提出了他对这些公司未来的看法。</blockquote></p><p> <b>What the New Legislation Is All About: </b> The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.</p><p><blockquote><b>新立法的内容是：</b>Munster指出，评级立法提出的允许第三方应用商店与App Store和Google Play Store合作的变化。他补充说，两家公司还被要求允许应用程序开发者在应用程序中明确做广告，以便消费者可以在应用程序商店或谷歌Play商店之外订阅和购买。</blockquote></p><p> This will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，这将有助于避免应用内购买 30% 的收费率。</blockquote></p><p> The proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote>明斯特说，拟议的法案必须得到众议院和参议院的批准才能成为法律。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Regulation Not Automatically Negative: </b> The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.</p><p><blockquote><b>监管不会自动否定：</b>明斯特说，监管的最终结果对大型科技公司来说并不自动是负面的，因为当激励措施发生变化时，意想不到的后果往往会发生。</blockquote></p><p> Even if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.</p><p><blockquote>这位分析师表示，即使苹果在压力下屈服并将接受率从 30% 降至 10%（这种可能性不大），它最终仍然可以赚更多的钱。他补充说，费用的降低可能会刺激应用程序开发生态系统的更大增长。</blockquote></p><p> Apple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.</p><p><blockquote>分析师表示，苹果和谷歌的理由更充分，因为它们创建了移动应用商店并负责维护它们。他补充说，因此，他们应该控制商店内商品的策划和分销方式。</blockquote></p><p> Additionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.</p><p><blockquote>此外，这位分析师表示，向第三方应用商店开放iPhone将削弱安全性和隐私，从而伤害消费者。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Munster's Take On Potential Regulation: </b> The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do&nbsp;materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.</p><p><blockquote><b>明斯特对潜在监管的看法：</b>明斯特说，激进监管的可能性很低。这位分析师表示，如果任何法规确实成为现实，最有可能的结果是苹果和谷歌将被迫删除他们的反转向条款，从而允许出版商在默认的应用内支付系统之外宣传支付选项。</blockquote></p><p> \"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.</p><p><blockquote>分析师总结道：“这对消费者应用商店参与度的影响有限，因为管理应用支出的最简单方法是留在各自的围墙花园里。”</blockquote></p><p> Apple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.</p><p><blockquote>苹果周五收盘下跌 0.14%，至 149.10 美元，谷歌收盘几乎持平，至 2,768.12 美元。</blockquote></p><p> Latest Ratings for AAPL</p><p><blockquote>AAPL 的最新评级</blockquote></p><p> <table>  <tbody>   <tr>    <th>Date</th>    <th>Firm</th>    <th>Action</th>    <th>From</th>    <th>To</th>   </tr>  </tbody>  <tbody>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Loop Capital</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Deutsche Bank</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Buy</td>   </tr>   <tr>    <td>Jul 2021</td>    <td>Piper Sandler</td>    <td>Maintains</td>    <td></td>    <td>Overweight</td>   </tr>  </tbody> </table></p><p><blockquote><table><tbody><tr><th>日期</th><th>公司</th><th>行动</th><th>来自</th><th>二</th></tr></tbody><tbody><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>循环资本</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>德意志银行</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>购买</td></tr><tr><td>2021年7月</td><td>派珀·桑德勒</td><td>维持</td><td></td><td>跑赢大盘</td></tr></tbody></table></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"GOOG":"谷歌","AAPL":"苹果","GOOGL":"谷歌A"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"2159321288","content_text":"The threat of regulation has been looming over big tech giants such as Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Alphabet Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) over the past three years.\nWith a bill seeking broader changes in the way Apple and Google operate their respective app stores introduced this week, Loup Funds Managing Partner Gene Munster offered his take on what is in store for these companies.\nWhat the New Legislation Is All About:  The changes proposed by the legislation calls for allowing third-party app stores with the App Store and Google Play store, Munster noted. Both companies are also called to allow app developers to explicitly advertise within apps, so that consumers can subscribe and make purchases outside of the App Store or the Google Play Store, he added.\nThis will help avoiding the 30% take rate on in-app purchases, the analyst said.\nThe proposed bill will have to be approved by the House and Senate before becoming law, Munster said.\nRegulation Not Automatically Negative:  The end result of regulation is not automatically negative for big tech, given unintended consequences often occur when incentives change, Munster said.\nEven if Apple buckles under pressure and reduces its take rate from 30% to 10% - a possibility which is unlikely – it could still make more money ultimately, the analyst said. A reduction in fees will likely spur greater growth in the app development ecosystem, he added.\nApple and Google, according to the analyst, have the stronger case, given they created their mobile app stores and are responsible for maintaining them, the analyst said. They, therefore, should have control over how things are curated and distributed within the stores, he added.\nAdditionally, opening the iPhone to third-party app stores, the analyst said, will weaken security and privacy, thereby harming consumers.\nMunster's Take On Potential Regulation:  The likelihood of radical regulation as low, Munster said. If any regulations do materialize, the most likely outcome is that Apple and Google will be forced to remove their anti-steering clauses, thereby allowing publishers to advertise payment options outside of the default in-app payment systems, the analyst said.\n\"This would have limited impact on consumer app store engagement given the easiest way to manage app spending will be to remain inside the respective walled gardens,\" the analyst concluded.\nApple closed Friday's session down 0.14% at $149.10 and Google ended nearly flat at $2,768.12.\nLatest Ratings for AAPL\n\n\n\nDate\nFirm\nAction\nFrom\nTo\n\n\n\n\nJul 2021\nLoop Capital\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nDeutsche Bank\nMaintains\n\nBuy\n\n\nJul 2021\nPiper Sandler\nMaintains\n\nOverweight","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GOOGL":0.9,"GOOG":0.9,"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":798,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":820917665,"gmtCreate":1633340319602,"gmtModify":1633340319808,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prices moving up so fast","listText":"Prices moving up so fast","text":"Prices moving up so fast","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/820917665","repostId":"1137835462","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1137835462","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633334786,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1137835462?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-04 16:06","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137835462","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record el","content":"<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六表示，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要求员工“超级硬核”推动季度末交付后，该公司第三季度电动汽车的交付量创下历史新高，超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，7 月至 9 月期间，其整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了 20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>7 月至 9 月季度，特斯拉在全球交付了 241,300 辆汽车，同比增长 73%。根据路孚特的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付 229,242 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nTesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading<blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-04 16:06</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Tesla&nbsp;shares&nbsp;rose&nbsp;1.4%&nbsp;in&nbsp;premarket&nbsp;trading.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉股价在盘前交易中上涨 1.4%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2cab5fe12ed908fae1c4667b858ab877\" tg-width=\"885\" tg-height=\"619\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\">Tesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉周六表示，在首席执行官埃隆·马斯克要求员工“超级硬核”推动季度末交付后，该公司第三季度电动汽车的交付量创下历史新高，超出了华尔街的预期。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. </p><p><blockquote>特斯拉比竞争对手更好地度过了芯片危机，7 月至 9 月期间，其整体交付量较第二季度的纪录飙升了 20%，这是连续第六个季度环比增长。</blockquote></p><p> Tesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.</p><p><blockquote>7 月至 9 月季度，特斯拉在全球交付了 241,300 辆汽车，同比增长 73%。根据路孚特的数据，分析师此前预计这家电动汽车制造商将交付 229,242 辆汽车。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137835462","content_text":"Tesla shares rose 1.4% in premarket trading.\nTesla Inc said on Saturday it had delivered a record electric cars in the third quarter, beating Wall Street estimates after Chief Executive Elon Musk asked staff to \"go super hardcore\" to make a quarter-end delivery push.\nTesla has weathered the chip crisis better than rivals, with its overall deliveries surging 20% in the July to September period from its previous record in the second quarter, marking the sixth consecutive quarter-on-quarter gains. \nTesla delivered 241,300 vehicles globally in the July to September quarter, up 73% from a year earlier. Analysts had expected the electric-car maker to deliver 229,242 vehicles, according to Refinitiv data.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":4168,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":839812020,"gmtCreate":1629140301260,"gmtModify":1633687132357,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Still moving up....","listText":"Still moving up....","text":"Still moving up....","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":9,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/839812020","repostId":"1135212237","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1135212237","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1629125001,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1135212237?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-16 22:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135212237","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $","content":"<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Big tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nBig tech stocks fell in morning trading, Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high<blockquote>大型科技股早盘下跌，苹果创历史新高后跌超1%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-08-16 22:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Aug 16)&nbsp;Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.</p><p><blockquote>（8月16日）大型科技股早盘下跌。苹果在触及150.59美元的历史新高后下跌超过1%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/f7c0f1effcd77008de0ea3edac4e6766\" tg-width=\"309\" tg-height=\"323\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"AAPL":"苹果"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135212237","content_text":"(Aug 16) Big tech stocks fell in morning trading. Apple fell over 1% after reaching record high at $150.59.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"AAPL":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":923,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":834187159,"gmtCreate":1629780469071,"gmtModify":1633682473306,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","listText":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","text":"If crosses the $150 mark.. there’ll be a spurt","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/834187159","repostId":"1104413070","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1069,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":836479560,"gmtCreate":1629518584950,"gmtModify":1633684279147,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Doesn’t sound too good","listText":"Doesn’t sound too good","text":"Doesn’t sound too good","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/836479560","repostId":"1107075259","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1107075259","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1629509852,"share":"https://www.laohunote.com/m/news/1107075259?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-08-21 09:37","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1107075259","media":"MarketWatch","summary":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.$Investors$ should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.At $Tesla Motors$’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said th","content":"<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"market_watch","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Ignore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nIgnore Elon Musk’s dancing distraction and face the dangers ahead for Tesla<blockquote>忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）跳舞的干扰，直面特斯拉未来的危险</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">MarketWatch</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-08-21 09:37</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>  <b>Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.</b>  <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">Investors</a> should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.</p><p><blockquote><b>对自动驾驶系统的调查以及这家电动汽车公司及其首席执行官就此发表的声明比他们最新的异想天开的技术抱负和时间表更值得关注。</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ISBC\">投资者</a>应该忽略埃隆-马斯克（Elon Musk）的最新舞蹈，转而关注特斯拉因首席执行官夸大公司技术能力而面临的日益严重的问题。</blockquote></p><p> At <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">Tesla Motors</a>’s&nbsp;AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”</p><p><blockquote>在<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TSLA\">特斯拉</a>在周四晚些时候的人工智能日，自称 Technoking 的马斯克表示，该公司正在研发人形机器人，因为 “特斯拉可以说是世界上最大的机器人公司，因为我们的汽车就像带轮子的半感知机器人”。</blockquote></p><p> After a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.</p><p><blockquote>在一名身穿白色西装的男子为观众和直播中的信徒们跳了一段简短的舞蹈后，马斯克走上舞台，只展示了一个 5 英尺 8 英寸的人形机器人的计算机生成的图像，特斯拉声称该机器人将在明年某个时候生产原型。他推断它可以用于制造或无聊的重复性任务，如杂货店购物，并将拥有一台全自动驾驶计算机。</blockquote></p><p> As always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.</p><p><blockquote>与马斯克和特斯拉一样，对于任何对相关技术有基本知识的人来说，时间表都是高度可疑的。幸运的是，这些滑稽动作并没有愚弄华尔街的每个人，他们中的一些人可能已经厌倦了他的恶作剧。</blockquote></p><p> “Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this&nbsp;Tesla&nbsp;Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for&nbsp;Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.</p><p><blockquote>“韦德布什证券公司（Wedbush Securities）分析师丹-艾夫斯（Dan Ives）在周五早些时候给客户的一份报告中说：”不幸的是，正如我们在机器人出租车和马斯克未来的其他科幻项目中看到的那样，我们认为这个特斯拉机器人绝对是一个令人头疼的问题，在华尔街对特斯拉电动汽车竞争和安全问题日益担忧之际，它将进一步激怒投资者。</blockquote></p><p> The safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.</p><p><blockquote>艾夫斯提到的安全问题是投资者现在应该关注的问题，因为政府似乎终于站出来，并注意到了本专栏长期以来指出的一个问题：马斯克一再夸大当前和近期的潜力他的汽车自主先进技术。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">Just</a> a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JE\">刚刚</a>在周四 “人工智能日 ”盛事的前一天，两位美国参议员要求联邦贸易委员会调查特斯拉和马斯克在特斯拉 “全自动驾驶 ”产品营销方面 “一再夸大其汽车的性能”。特斯拉对远未完全自动驾驶的软件收取数千美元的购买费用（或每月低至 100 美元），这种做法已经导致加州机动车辆管理局最近进行审查。德国裁定特斯拉不能这样销售该产品。</blockquote></p><p> “Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">American</a> University in <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">Washington</a> DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”</p><p><blockquote>“语言很重要，”大学公共行政与政策系教授讲师塞利卡-塔尔博特（Selika Talbott）说。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AFG\">美国的</a>大学<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WASH\">华盛顿</a>直流电。“使用这些术语是错误的、误导性的，对公众来说也是不安全的。公众并不完全理解辅助驾驶和自动驾驶汽车的概念及其区别。”</blockquote></p><p> “Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.</p><p><blockquote>“塔尔博特说：”特斯拉在他们的车辆上采用了高度辅助技术，但任何时候驾驶员都不应该认为车辆可以自动驾驶，因为它不能。</blockquote></p><p> The week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">National</a> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">Highway</a> Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">Advanced</a> Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.</p><p><blockquote>本周伊始，有消息称联邦政府将对特斯拉的自动驾驶系统进行调查，此前使用该功能的汽车撞上了停下的紧急车辆。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/NHLD\">国家的</a><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIHO\">公路</a>交通安全管理局正在调查一系列启用了高级驾驶员辅助系统的crashesby特斯拉汽车。美国国家公路交通安全管理局 (NHTSA) 表示，已对特斯拉 11 起涉及紧急车辆的事故展开调查，同时仍在调查一系列涉及配备紧急车辆的碰撞事故。<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AEIS\">先进的</a>驾驶员辅助系统（ADAS）和牵引车。</blockquote></p><p> The latest outcry on Capitol <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">Hill</a> follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.</p><p><blockquote>国会大厦的最新抗议<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/HIL\">山丘</a>接下来是一系列新闻报道和/或社交媒体帖子以及YouTube视频，内容是司机在测试特斯拉所谓的自动驾驶功能时从事极其危险的行为。今年 5 月，加利福尼亚州丰塔纳市 35 岁的 Steven Michael Hendrickson 是两个孩子的父亲，他的特斯拉撞上了一辆翻倒的半挂卡车，不幸身亡。早些时候，他发布了在高速公路上没有手放在汽车方向盘上驾驶的视频，但NHTSA仍在调查自动驾驶仪在事故中的作用。</blockquote></p><p> “The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”</p><p><blockquote>“麻省理工学院运输与物流中心的研究科学家布莱恩-雷默（Bryan Reimer）说：”特斯拉正在生产的车辆是驾驶员辅助系统。“他们正在协助司机，司机需要保持警惕”。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> It is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”</p><p><blockquote>值得注意的是，特斯拉的双产品名称具有误导性。据特斯拉网站介绍，“Autopilot ”是一种 ADAS 系统，是一种专为高速公路驾驶设计的高级巡航控制系统，可 “让您的汽车在您的主动监督下在车道内自动转向、加速和制动，协助完成驾驶中最繁重的部分”。特斯拉还提供 “FSD ”套餐，目前订阅价格为每月 99 美元至 199 美元，该套餐将其描述为 “使用一套更先进的驾驶辅助功能，旨在在您的主动监督下提供更主动的指导和辅助驾驶”。</blockquote></p><p> If only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.</p><p><blockquote>要是马斯克以与官网类似的方式描述这些系统就好了。在评级分析师大会和特斯拉长达数小时的粉丝演讲中，马斯克一直宣称，有了这款软件，完全自主指日可待。</blockquote></p><p> “We&nbsp;basically&nbsp;have&nbsp;to&nbsp;solve&nbsp;real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">one</a> million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we&nbsp;will&nbsp;get&nbsp;this&nbsp;done.”</p><p><blockquote>“他在 4 月份的财报看涨期权上说：”我们基本上必须解决现实世界的视觉人工智能问题，而且我们做到了。“解决这个问题的关键还在于拥有大量的数据集。因此，只要拥有大量的数据集，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AONE.U\">一</a>路上有上百万辆车在收集数据……但我非常有信心我们会完成这项工作。”</blockquote></p><p> But for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.</p><p><blockquote>不过，尽管马斯克声势浩大，拥有庞大的粉丝群，但投资者开始注意到，与其他测试自动驾驶汽车的公司不同，该公司涉及全自动驾驶技术的策略是危险的。</blockquote></p><p> For example, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a> Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.</p><p><blockquote>例如，<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GOOG\">Alphabet</a>公司的sGOOGGOOGLWaymo是自动驾驶汽车时间最长的公司，目前正在亚利桑那州凤凰城周围人口密集的地区运营小规模机器人出租车服务，没有人类司机。这是美国唯一一家此类公司。在加利福尼亚州，Waymo 获得了 DMV 的许可，可以在驾驶员驾驶的情况下进行 AV 测试。</blockquote></p><p> “Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">American</a> University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”</p><p><blockquote>“Waymo 不能就这么开始向任何人出售他们的 AV，他们也不能就这么在路上行驶，我们的监管体系不允许这样做。”<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AMSWA\">美国的</a>大学说。“你可以测试它们，但市场上没有公开的自动驾驶汽车可供购买，因为它并不存在”。</blockquote></p><p> With FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.</p><p><blockquote>随着 FSD 测试在现实世界中由未经培训的司机进行，特斯拉正在进行相当于一种新药的临床试验，而没有对患者进行任何专业的每小时或每天监测。</blockquote></p><p> “They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.</p><p><blockquote>“雷默说：”他们称之为测试版，这是一个测试版系统，他们让人们面临实质性风险。</blockquote></p><p> Musk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.</p><p><blockquote>马斯克的最新机器人是另一个令人分心的事情，就像他的无聊公司在 2018 年出售的火焰喷射器、他试图帮助被困在泰国山洞里的男孩的意外帮助以及其他项目一样。投资者不应让这些干扰妨碍马斯克似乎拒绝承认的真正问题，因为他继续过度推销公司的技术能力。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page\">MarketWatch</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"source_url":"https://www.marketwatch.com/story/ignore-elon-musks-dancing-distraction-and-face-the-dangers-ahead-for-tesla-11629488276?mod=home-page","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/599a65733b8245fcf7868668ef9ad712","article_id":"1107075259","content_text":"Investigations into automated-driving systems and the statements made about it by the electric-car company and its chief executive deserve more attention than their latest fanciful technology aspirations and timelines.\n\nInvestors should ignore Elon Musk’s latest dance and focus instead on the growing issues Tesla is facing because of its chief executive’s exaggerated claims about his company’s technological capabilities.\nAt Tesla Motors’s AI Day late Thursday, self-named Technoking Musk said that the company is working on a humanoid robot as “Tesla is arguably the world’s biggest robotics company because our cars are like semi-sentient robots on wheels.”\nAfter a white-suited human did a brief dance for the believers in the audience and on a livestream, Musk came on the stage and showed only computer-generated images of a 5’8″ humanoid robot thathe claimed Tesla will produce a prototype of sometime next year. He inferred it could be used for manufacturing or boring repetitive tasks, like grocery shopping and will have a full self-driving computer.\nAs always with Musk and Tesla, the timeline is highly doubtful to anyone with basic knowledge of the technology in question. Fortunately, the antics did not fool everyone on Wall Street, some of whom may be getting tired of his shenanigans.\n“Unfortunately, as we have seen with robotaxis and other future sci-fi projects for Musk, we view this Tesla Bot as an absolute head scratcher that will further agitate investors at a time the Street is showing growing concern around rising EV competition and safety issues for Tesla,” said Dan Ives, a Wedbush Securities analyst, in a note to clients early Friday.\nThe safety issues Ives mentions are what investors should be attuned to right now, because it appears the government is finally stepping up and taking note of a problem this column has long pointed out: Musk repeatedly oversells the current and near-term potential for his automotive autonomy advanced technology.\nJust a day before Thursday’s “AI Day” spectacle,two U.S. senators asked the Federal Trade Commission to investigate both Tesla’s and Musk’s “repeated overstatements of their vehicles’ capabilities”in regards to the marketing of Tesla’s “Full Self Driving” product. Tesla charges thousands of dollars at purchase (or as little as $100 a month) for software that is nowhere near full self-driving, a practice that has already led toa recent review by California Department of Motor Vehiclesanda German ruling that Tesla could not market the product as such.\n“Language matters,” said Selika Talbott, a professorial lecturer in the department of public administration and policy at American University in Washington DC. “The use of this terminology is false and misleading and unsafe for the general public. The notions of assisted driving and autonomous vehicles and their differences are not fully understood by the general public.”\n“Tesla has highly assisted technology in their vehicle, but at no point should anyone behind the wheel think that vehicle can drive itself, because it can’t,” Talbott said.\nThe week began with news of a federal investigation into Tesla’s Autopilot system after cars using the feature crashed into stopped emergency vehicles.The National Highway Traffic Safety Administration is looking into a series of crashesby Tesla cars that had the advanced driver-assistance system enabled. NHTSA said that itopened an inquiry into 11 Tesla crashesthat involved emergency vehicles, while still investigating a series of collisions involving cars enabled with Advanced Driver Assistance Systems (ADAS) and tractor-trailers.\nThe latest outcry on Capitol Hill follows a stream of news reports and/or social media posts and YouTube videos of drivers engaging in extremely risky behavior while testing the so-called self-driving features of their Tesla. In May, Steven Michael Hendrickson,a 35-year-old father of two in Fontana, Calif., died when his Tesla hit an overturned semitruck. Earlier he had posted videos of driving without his hands on the wheel of his car on the freeway, but the NHTSA was still investigating the role of Autopilot in the crash.\n“The vehicles that Tesla is producing are driver-assisted systems,” said Bryan Reimer, a research scientist at the MIT Center for Transportation and Logistics. “They are assisting the driver, and the driver needs to maintain vigilance.”\nIt is important to note the difference between Tesla’s dual products with misleading names. “Autopilot” is an ADAS system, a highly advanced version of cruise control meant for highway driving that enables “your car to steer, accelerate and brake automatically within its lane under your active supervision, assisting with the most burdensome parts of driving,” according to Tesla’s website. Tesla also offers the “FSD” package, now available by a subscription of $99 to $199 a month, which it describes as “access to a suite of more advanced driver assistance features, designed to provide more active guidance and assisted driving under your active supervision.”\nIf only Musk described these systems in a similar manner to the official website. In analyst conference calls and in Tesla’s multi-hour long presentations to its fan base, Musk has been proclaiming that with this software, full autonomy is around the corner.\n“We basically have to solve real-world vision AI and we are,” he said in an earnings call in April. “And the key to solving this is also having some massive data set. So just having well over one million cars on the road that are collecting data… But I am highly confident that we will get this done.”\nBut for all of Musk’s bluster and huge fan base, investors are starting to note that the company’s tactics involving full self-driving technology are dangerous, as opposed to the other companies that are testing autonomous vehicles.\nFor example, Alphabet Inc.’sGOOGGOOGLWaymo, the company with the most hours of autonomous vehicle driving, is currently operating a small scale robotaxi service in parts of Arizona around Phoenix that are not densely populated, without human drivers. It is the only one of its kind in the U.S. In California, Waymo has permits from the DMV to conduct AV testing with a human driver behind the wheel.\n“Waymo cannot just start selling their AVs to anyone, and they can’t just drive them on the roadway, our regulatory system does not allow for that,” Talbott of American University said. “You can test them but no publicly available self-driving car is on the market for purchase because it doesn’t exist.”\nWith FSD testing being done in the real world with untrained drivers, Tesla is conducting the equivalent of clinical trials of a new drug without any professional hourly or daily monitoring of the patient.\n“They are calling it beta, it is a beta system, they are exposing people to substantive risk,” Reimer said.\nMusk’s latest bot is yet another distraction, much like the flame thrower in 2018 sold by his Boring Company, his unwanted assistance to try and help the boys stuck in a cave in Thailand, and other projects. Investors should not let these distractions get in the way of the real issues that Musk seems to be refusing to acknowledge as he continues to oversell his company’s technological abilities.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1167,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":832184602,"gmtCreate":1629598650206,"gmtModify":1633683864902,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","listText":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","text":"Prices for these companies shares have risen exponentially... but is there still room for growth?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":6,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/832184602","repostId":"2161745179","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1187,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0},{"id":804539626,"gmtCreate":1627963001565,"gmtModify":1633754819790,"author":{"id":"4090570965971460","authorId":"4090570965971460","name":"KeN3","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ffc770a2d3626a3e029ba2c461aac13d","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4090570965971460","idStr":"4090570965971460"},"themes":[],"title":"","htmlText":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","listText":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","text":"Is it over priced now to enter the market?","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/804539626","repostId":"1121927855","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":519,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"EN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}