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Philip67

Philip67

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2021-09-29

$SINGAPORE AIRLINES LTD(C6L.SI)$bull or bear?

2021-11-21

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抱歉，原内容已删除

2021-11-11

$SARINE TECHNOLOGIES LTD(U77.SI)$comments?

2021-10-27

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2021-10-04

Good

Here is Top 20 S&P 500 winners in the third-quarter<blockquote>以下是第三季度标普500前20名获奖者</blockquote>

2021-11-12

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Why Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote>

2021-10-11

Good information [强]

What To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>

2021-12-24

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2021-11-23

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Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>

2021-11-18

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11:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1117226796","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good ","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Palantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nPalantir: 3 Reasons Against It And Why It's Still A Buy<blockquote>Palantir：反对它的3个理由以及为什么它仍然值得买入</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-12-21 11:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Palantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.</li>  <li>PLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.</li>  <li>Despite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7230cdd890b86f9941b99b1503d04049\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1044\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>spxChrome/E+ via Getty Images</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Palantir Technologies是一只战场股票。听空头的论点对多头来说是个好主意。</li><li>PLTR稀释了其股东，但这不一定是一个大问题。</li><li>尽管存在一些利率阻力，但PLTR对我来说似乎是一项不错的投资，这要归功于强大的护城河和巨大的增长前景。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>spxChrome/E+来自Getty Images</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Article Thesis</b></p><p><blockquote><b>文章论文</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.</p><p><blockquote>Palantir Technologies(PLTR)是一只陷入困境的成长型股票，最近几周，随着股价持续下跌，空头一直在获胜。确实有一些重要的看跌论点，例如稀释、对政府合同的依赖以及利率上升。然而，我仍然相信Palantir Technologies是一项有吸引力的长期投资，因为其技术可能会在未来许多年带来巨大增长。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3 Issues Brought Up By Bears</b></p><p><blockquote><b>空头提出的3个问题</b></blockquote></p><p> Palantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:</p><p><blockquote>Palantir是一只成长型股票，可以带来高度确信的多头和高度确信的空头。总的来说，我在这里是看涨阵营，但看看看跌的论点也是一个好主意。反对Palantir的三个最常见的论点如下：</blockquote></p><p> <b>1. Shareholder Dilution</b></p><p><blockquote><b>1.股东稀释</b></blockquote></p><p> Growth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:</p><p><blockquote>全公司的增长很重要，但每股的增长更重要。有许多例子表明，公司股票数量的变化可以创造或破坏大量股东价值。例如，苹果(AAPL)的净利润在过去十年中增长了约190%：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/2b5263c8346cfbbb898f1d1ac9a5bead\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Thanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):</p><p><blockquote>然而，由于股票数量下降，其每股收益增长了更具吸引力的350%——回购创造了大量股东价值。也有股票数量增加破坏了大量股东价值的例子，例如花旗集团（C）：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/fc39008812f5e2d0082dedc95b025c68\" tg-width=\"635\" tg-height=\"433\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Data by YCharts</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>数据来自YCharts</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Massive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:</p><p><blockquote>自2007年以来，大衰退期间的大规模股票发行导致每股收益下降75%，尽管同期净利润有所增长。因此，关注公司股票数量的变化是有意义的，因为从长远来看，这些变化可能会产生很大的影响。在Palantir，我们看到自公司上市以来，股票数量一直在大幅增加。最近一个季度，Palantir的股票数量如下所示：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/917ca4d7a390ced61d7c92d528f84fc1\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"539\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Press Release</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir新闻稿</span></p></blockquote></p><p> Compared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was&nbsp;1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.</p><p><blockquote>与第二季度相比，Palantir的平均股票数量为18.95亿股，季度增长3.5%，年增长率在十几岁左右。当然，这一点根本不可忽视，当他们说股东以有意义的速度被稀释时，就值得争论。另一方面，Palantir的业务增长率远高于每季度3%，因为该公司预计今年的收入增长约为40%，而且Palantir也应该在未来几年实现巨大的业务增长。即使Palantir的股票数量未来每年增长10%-15%，由于PLTR的快速增长，每股收入仍将每年增长25%以上。我还相信，随着时间的推移，稀释度将会下降。这不仅适用于许多其他成长型公司，例如亚马逊（AMZN）、Alphabet（GOOG）或Meta（FB），但从期权回报的角度来看，这也是合乎逻辑的。当一家公司尚未公开交易且其未来仍然更加不确定时，期权奖励尤其丰厚，但随着公司成熟，随着公司风险的下降，员工会变得更加舒适，他们不再要求大笔期权套餐。最后但并非最不重要的是，Palantir还产生了强劲的自由现金流，这应该使该公司能够在未来进行股票回购，这也应该有助于提高稀释率。</blockquote></p><p> <b>2. Reliance on government contracts</b></p><p><blockquote><b>2.对政府合同的依赖</b></blockquote></p><p></p><p> In a recent bearish&nbsp;article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:</p><p><blockquote>在最近的一篇看跌文章中，The Pulse的Seeking Alpha撰稿人认为Palantir被高估，其对政府合同的依赖是一个问题。Palantir Technologies如今确实在很大程度上依赖政府合同，但我不认为这是一个主要问题。首先，由于商业业务的大幅增长，Palantir最近实现了多元化，摆脱了政府合同：</blockquote></p><p> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/de23409915ee3811691b986a42ece899\" tg-width=\"640\" tg-height=\"308\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Source: Palantir Technologies presentation</span></p><p><blockquote><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>资料来源：Palantir技术演示</span></p></blockquote></p><p> In fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With</p><p><blockquote>事实上，Palantir的商业业务近年来的增长速度远远快于其政府业务，这表明来自各个行业的商业客户显然看到了Palantir技术的巨大价值——否则，他们不会购买Palantir技术。速度很快。和</blockquote></p><p> With the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.</p><p><blockquote>随着商业业务增长率超过政府业务增长率，Palantir将在多年后成为一家越来越不依赖政府合同的公司，并最终成为一家专注于B2B的软件/技术公司。即使Palantir永远是一家以政府为中心的公司（根据各个业务部门目前的增长率，这似乎不太可能），但这也不一定是一个问题。为政府工作意味着交易对手风险很小，现有关系可以很容易地用来获得未来的合同。最后但并非最不重要的一点是，随着政府预算相对稳定地增长，良好的政府关系带来了相当大的增长机会——特别是在Palantir活跃的国防技术/安全技术领域，因为该领域非常需要进一步投资。</blockquote></p><p> The claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actually<i>declined</i>year-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.</p><p><blockquote>我认为，政府关注导致缺乏可扩展性的说法也是错误的。根据Palantir最新的季度报告（上面链接），2020年第三季度至2021年第三季度期间，其运营费用增加了900万美元，而同期收入增加了1.03亿美元。这抵消了股权激励的变化。如果将这些SBC费用包括在内，Palantir的费用实际上<i>拒绝</i>而该公司的收入同比增长了近40%。因此，我认为Palantir多年来不会产生任何规模优势的说法似乎是没有根据的。相反，数据表明Palantir将能够大幅提高其利润率——该公司调整后毛利润大幅增长9000万美元，而调整后运营费用仅增长900万美元——从而实现出色的运营杠杆。</blockquote></p><p> <b>3. Exposure to rising rates</b></p><p><blockquote><b>3.利率上升的风险</b></blockquote></p><p> Massive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.</p><p><blockquote>大规模通胀将迫使美联储在2022年及以后加息，这可能是成长型股票的一个问题。与增长较低或没有增长且在短期内产生大量未来利润的公司相比，今天不盈利或绝大多数利润在遥远未来的公司更容易面临贴现率上升的风险。我相信，这可能会导致未来几年价值股优于成长股。Palantir尚未盈利，自然属于“增长”类别，利率上升可能会产生高于平均水平的影响。我认为，这里没有真正的反驳——确实，在其他条件相同的情况下，利率上升对Palantir的影响将比艾伯维(ABBV)等价值股更大。</blockquote></p><p> This being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.</p><p><blockquote>然而，这对Palantir来说是一个增量负面影响，并不意味着在任何情况下都必须避免股票。事实上，即使利率上升带来了一些潜在的阻力，如果其他论点具有更大的权重，Palantir仍然可能是一项有吸引力的投资——我相信这是真的，因为我认为PLTR巨大的增长潜力和巨大的护城河超过了近期的一些阻力来自利率上升。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Why Palantir Is Still Attractive</b></p><p><blockquote><b>为什么Palantir仍然有吸引力</b></blockquote></p><p> Bears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.</p><p><blockquote>看空者提出了一系列反对Palantir的论点，如上所示，这些论点可能有其优点。我相信在某些情况下他们可能被夸大了，但看看空头的论点并没有什么坏处——事实上，为了做出更明智的决定，看看双方似乎是个好主意。稀释确实是一个问题，尽管我不认为这会是太大的阻力，因为PLTR的业务增长很容易超过稀释，而且总体而言，稀释应该会在几年内放缓。由于高于平均水平的商业业务增长率，对政府的依赖将会随着时间的推移而减弱，总的来说，与政府做生意无论如何都不是一件坏事。从我在PLTR的数据中看到的来看，PLTR缺乏可扩展性的说法似乎是错误的。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> Palantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased&nbsp;Foundry&nbsp;for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an&nbsp;excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.</p><p><blockquote>尽管有这些论点，我相信Palantir仍然很有吸引力：该公司发展迅速，在政府业务和商业方面都具有数十年的增长潜力，而且Palantir似乎拥有非常宽的护城河。这种合并最终可能会将Palantir变成最大、最重要的公司之一——尽管投资者不应指望这种情况会在短期内发生。相反，我相信Palantir很有可能在整个2020年代及以后以相当大的速度增长，因为我们的世界变得越来越需要数据——政府和企业都将努力获得最大的价值从所有这些数据中获得，Palantir将凭借其量身定制的解决方案，为其客户提供这种价值。凭借最近展示的Foundry for Crypto等新工具，Palantir处于各种新兴技术的前沿。由于Palantir能够接触到顶尖人才——SBC的结果和良好的工作环境——我相信Palantir很有可能能够在未来的各种市场中具有高度竞争力。大数据/人工智能领域可能还不存在。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Takeaway</b></p><p><blockquote><b>外卖</b></blockquote></p><p> In general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.</p><p><blockquote>总的来说，我不是一个成长型投资者——相反，我主要关注价格有吸引力、现金流强劲的股票，通常是那些支付股息的股票。然而，Palantir在我的投资组合中有点异类——它是一只成长型股票，尚未真正盈利，而且其大部分潜力还需要数年时间。由于巨大的市场机会、优秀的人才和宽阔的护城河的极具吸引力的组合，Palantir对我来说仍然是一项有吸引力的长期投资。这不是一只能让投资者快速致富的股票，但我相信Palantir很有可能在未来10多年成为一家非常占主导地位的重要公司。PLTR明年收入的19倍并不便宜，但当我们预计该公司将在许多年内以强劲的速度增长时，这对我来说一点也不奇怪。听空头的论点是有道理的，但我相信这里利大于弊。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"PLTR":"Palantir Technologies Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4475960-palantir-3-reasons-against-it-and-why-its-still-a-buy","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1117226796","content_text":"Summary\n\nPalantir Technologies is a battleground stock. Listening to the bears' arguments is a good idea for bulls.\nPLTR dilutes its shareholders, but that is not necessarily a huge problem.\nDespite some interest rate headwinds, PLTR seems like a good investment to me, thanks to a strong moat and great growth outlook.\n\nspxChrome/E+ via Getty Images\nArticle Thesis\nPalantir Technologies (PLTR) is an embattled growth stock, and in recent weeks, bears have been winning as shares continued to decline. There are, indeed some important bear arguments, such as dilution, reliance on government contracts, and rising interest rates. I do, however, still believe that Palantir Technologies is an attractive long-term investment, due to the act that its technology could lead to massive growth for many years to come.\n3 Issues Brought Up By Bears\nPalantir is a growth stock that brings out highly convinced bulls as well as highly convinced bears. Generally, I am in the bullish camp here, but taking a look at the bear arguments can be a good idea as well. Three of the most common arguments against Palantir are the following ones:\n1. Shareholder Dilution\nGrowth on a company-wide basis is important, but growth on a per-share basis is even more important. There are many examples that show that changes in a company's share count can create or destroy a lot of shareholder value. Apple (AAPL), for example, has seen its net income grow by roughly 190% over the last decade:\nData by YCharts\nThanks to a declining share count, its earnings per share rose by a much more attractive 350%, however -- buybacks created a lot of shareholder value. There are also examples where a rising share count destroyed a lot of shareholder value, e.g. at Citigroup (C):\nData by YCharts\nMassive share issuance during the Great Recession has resulted in a 75% earnings per share decline since 2007, even though net profits were up over the same time frame. Looking at the changes in a company's share count thus makes sense, as those changes can have a large impact in the long run. At Palantir, we see that the share count has been rising considerably since the company went public. During the most recent quarter, Palantir's share count looked like this:\nSource: Palantir Press Release\nCompared to the second quarter, Palantir's average share count was 1.895 billion, which makes for a 3.5% quarterly increase, which pencils out to an annual growth rate in the mid-teens. That is, of course, not negligible at all, and bears to have an argument when they state that shareholders get diluted at a meaningful pace. On the other hand, Palantir's business growth rate is way higher than 3% per quarter, as the company has guided for ~40% revenue growth this year, and since Palantir should also deliver outsized business growth in the coming years. Even if Palantir's share count were to climb by 10%-15% a year going forward, revenue per share would still climb by 25%+ a year thanks to the fact that PLTR is growing rapidly. I also believe that dilution will, over the years, decline. Not only has this been the case at many other growth companies, e.g. Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG), or Meta (FB), but it is also logical from an option rewards perspective. Option rewards are especially generous when a company is not yet publicly traded and when its future is still more uncertain, but as a company matures, employees get more comfortable as risks for the company decline, and they do not demand large option packages any longer. Last but not least, Palantir also generates strong free cash flows that should allow the company to do share buybacks in the future, which should help improve the dilution rate as well.\n2. Reliance on government contracts\nIn a recent bearish article, fellow Seeking Alpha contributor On The Pulse argued that Palantir was overvalued and that its reliance on government contracts was an issue. Palantir Technologies is, indeed, reliant on government contracts to a large degree today, but I do not believe that this is a major issue. First, Palantir has diversified away from government contracts in the recent past, thanks to massive growth in its commercial business:\nSource: Palantir Technologies presentation\nIn fact, Palantir's commercial business has been growing much faster than its government business in the recent past, which shows that commercial customers from all kinds of industries apparently see a lot of value in Palantir's technology -- otherwise, they wouldn't be buying at a rapid pace. With\nWith the commercial business growth rate outpacing the government business growth rate, Palantir will, over the years, become a company that is less and less dependent on government contracts, and that will ultimately turn into a B2B-focused software/technology player. Even if Palantir were to remain a government-focused company forever, which seems unlikely based on the current growth rates of the individual business units, that would not necessarily be an issue. Working for the government means that there is very little counterparty risk and that existing relations can easily be used to get future contracts. Last but not least, with government budgets rising relatively steadily, good government connections allow for considerable growth opportunities -- especially in the defense tech/security tech space Palantir is active in, as there is a huge need for further investments in this space.\nThe claim that a government focus leads to lacking scalability is also false, I believe. Per Palantir's most recent quarterly report (linked above), its operating expenses rose by $9 million between Q3 2020 and Q3 2021 -- whereas revenues rose by $103 million in the same time frame. This backs out changes in share-based compensation. If one were to include those SBC expenses, Palantir's expenses actuallydeclinedyear-over-year while the company managed to grow its revenue by close to 40%. The claim that Palantir will not generate any scale advantages over the years thus seems to be unfounded, I believe. Instead, the data suggest that Palantir will be able to grow its margins considerably -- the company was able to grow its adjusted gross profit by a massive $90 million while growing its adjusted operating expenses by just $9 million -- making for excellent operating leverage.\n3. Exposure to rising rates\nMassive inflation will force the Fed to raise rates in 2022 and beyond, and that could be an issue for growth stocks. Companies that are not profitable today, or that have the vast majority of their profits in the distant future, are more exposed to a rising discount rate compared to companies that have low or no growth and that generate a large amount of all future profits in the near term. This could result in outperformance of value stocks versus growth stocks in the coming years, I believe. Palantir, which is not profitable yet, naturally belongs in the \"growth\" bucket that could see an above-average impact from rising interest rates. There is no real counter-argument here, I believe -- it is indeed true that the impact of rising rates on Palantir, all else equal, will be larger compared to a value stock like AbbVie (ABBV), for example.\nThis being an incremental negative for Palantir doesn't mean that shares have to be avoided under any circumstances, however. Indeed, even despite some potential headwinds from rising rates, Palantir could still be an attractive investment if other arguments have a larger weight -- I believe this to be true, as I see PLTR's massive growth potential and huge moat outweighing some near-term headwinds from rising rates.\nWhy Palantir Is Still Attractive\nBears bring up a range of arguments against Palantir, and as shown above, those can have merit. I believe that they might be overblown in some cases, but taking a look at the bear's arguments doesn't hurt -- in fact, it seems like a good idea to look at both sides in order to make a more informed decision. Dilution is indeed an issue, although I do not believe that this will be too much of a headwind, since PLTR's business growth easily outpaces dilution and since dilution, overall, should slow down over the years. Government reliance will wane over the years due to an above-average commercial business growth rate, and in general, doing business with the government is not a bad thing anyway. The claim that PLTR lacks scalability seems to be false, from what I see in PLTR's data.\nPalantir is, despite these arguments, attractive, I believe: The company is growing rapidly, has decades-long growth potential in both its government business as well as on the commercial side, and Palantir seems to have a very wide moat. This combination could turn Palantir into one of the largest and most important companies eventually -- although investors shouldn't expect this to happen in the very near term. Instead, I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will grow at a considerable rate throughout the 2020s and beyond, as our world becomes ever more data-hungry -- both governments, as well as enterprises, will try to get the most value out of all of this data, and Palantir, with its tailored solutions, will be there to offer that value to its customers. With new tools such as the recently-showcased Foundry for crypto, Palantir is at the forefront of all kinds of emerging technologies. Thanks to the fact that Palantir has access to top talent -- the result of SBC and of an excellent working environment-- I believe that there is a good chance that Palantir will be able to be highly competitive in all kinds of future markets in the Big Data/AI space that may not even exist yet.\nTakeaway\nIn general, I am not much of a growth investor -- instead, I primarily focus on attractively priced stocks with strong cash flows, oftentimes those that pay dividends. Palantir, however, is somewhat of an outlier in my portfolio -- it's a growth stock, it is not really profitable yet, and most of its potential is years away. Due to the highly attractive combination of a massive market opportunity, excellent talent, and a wide moat, Palantir still seems like an attractive long-term investment to me. This isn't a stock that will make investors rich quickly, but I believe that there is a very good chance that Palantir will turn into a very dominant, important company over the next 10+ years. At 19x next year's revenue, PLTR is not cheap, but when we expect that the company will grow at a strong rate for many years, that also doesn't seem outlandish to me at all. It makes sense to listen to the bears' arguments, but I believe that the pros outweigh the cons here.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"PLTR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3398,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":608048711,"gmtCreate":1638585938822,"gmtModify":1638585939086,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/608048711","repostId":"1135581145","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1135581145","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1638544438,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1135581145?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-12-03 23:13","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1135581145","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.","content":"<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价在早盘交易中下跌6%，而Grab则上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6e1cc599c71ab4b3f021f3f08854e7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad938b19362172c4e42e41557bb259b3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nSea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3%<blockquote>Sea Ltd股价下跌6%，Grab上涨近3%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-12-03 23:13</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.</p><p><blockquote>Sea Ltd股价在早盘交易中下跌6%，而Grab则上涨近3%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3f6e1cc599c71ab4b3f021f3f08854e7\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ad938b19362172c4e42e41557bb259b3\" tg-width=\"840\" tg-height=\"470\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"SE":"Sea Ltd","GRAB":"Grab Holdings"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1135581145","content_text":"Sea Ltd stock dropped 6% while Grab rallied nearly 3% in morning trading.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"GRAB":0.9,"SE":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":609155917,"gmtCreate":1638256408699,"gmtModify":1638256408806,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/609155917","repostId":"2187306343","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3532,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875606148,"gmtCreate":1637637985309,"gmtModify":1637637985399,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875606148","repostId":"1144695405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144695405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637637065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者，其市销率也达到了23.5。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者，其市销率也达到了23.5。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695405","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowever, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.\nThanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.\nIn this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nRivian(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when Ford(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for Amazon(AMZN) had less range than advertised.\nFollowing the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.\nWith last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.\nIn many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.\nThe most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.\nWhile the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!\nRivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”\nPut simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to Telsa(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.\nPets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble\nIt’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.\nEarly on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.\nThings were going well.\nBut people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.\nIPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:\n\nCash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.\nTotal assets: $4.7 million, down 62%\nTotal liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.\nCash raised in liquidation: $438,000.\nCash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.\n\nNo revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.\nIt’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:\nTesla.\nTSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.\nRivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.\nNevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!\nValuation\nAnother set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.\nIf you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.\nPerhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:\n\nThe 48,000 pre-orders will come through.\nThey’ll all be delivered in 2022.\nAmazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.\n\nThat’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe bottom line on Rivian is this:\nIf any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.\nIt has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.\nPut simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.\nDoes that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.\nBut just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the 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"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/873977070","repostId":"1186112608","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1186112608","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636849602,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1186112608?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-14 08:26","market":"us","language":"en","title":"US IPO Week Ahead: The IPO market settles down with 7 IPOs as the holiday week approaches<blockquote>美国IPO一周：随着假期周的临近，IPO市场稳定下来，有7家IPO</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1186112608","media":"Renaissance Capital","summary":"The IPO market is expected to pump the brakes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday with seven IPOs sche","content":"<p>The IPO market is expected to pump the brakes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday with seven IPOs scheduled to raise $1.9 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>预计IPO市场将在感恩节假期前踩刹车，未来一周将有七起IPO筹集19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Childcare provider&nbsp;<b>KinderCare Learning Companies</b>(KLC) plans to raise $503 million at a $2.7 billion market cap. The company serves children from 6 weeks to 12 years of age through 1,480 early childhood education centers and 650 before- and after-school sites across 40 states and Washington DC. While KinderCare is a leader in the early childhood education market, its business been significantly disrupted by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>托儿服务提供者<b>KinderCare学习公司</b>(KLC)计划以27亿美元的市值筹集5.03亿美元。该公司通过遍布40个州和华盛顿州DC的1,480个幼儿教育中心和650个学前和课后场所为6周至12岁的儿童提供服务。虽然KinderCare是幼儿教育市场的领导者，但其业务受到了疫情的严重干扰。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Braze</b>(BRZE) plans to raise $460 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. Founder-led Braze provides a customer engagement platform used by businesses to improve their marketing. Unprofitable with strong growth, Braze serves over 1,100 clients with net revenue retention of 120%+ as of 7/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b>钎焊</b>(BRZE)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。创始人领导的Braze提供了一个客户参与平台，供企业用来改善其营销。截至2011年7月31日，Braze为1,100多家客户提供服务，净收入保留率为120%以上，但增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Fast casual salad chain&nbsp;<b>Sweetgreen</b>(SG) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.9 billion market cap. Sweetgreen owned and operated 140 restaurants in 13 states and Washington DC as of 9/26/21. The company has a strong digital presence and plans double its store count in the next three to five years, though it has yet to achieve profitability.</p><p><blockquote>快速休闲沙拉连锁店<b>甜绿</b>(SG)计划以29亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。截至2011年9月26日，Sweetgreen在13个州和华盛顿州DC拥有并经营140家餐厅。该公司拥有强大的数字业务，并计划在未来三到五年内将其商店数量增加一倍，尽管尚未实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>UserTesting</b>(USER) plans to raise $227 million at a $2.6 billion market cap. The company provides a video-first customer feedback platform for enterprises, providing richer, more contextualized insights by capturing various human signals. Its customers include a diverse base of more than 2,100 enterprises, with strong net dollar-based retention. However, it remains unprofitable due to high S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote><b>用户测试</b>（用户）计划以26亿美元的市值筹集2.27亿美元。该公司为企业提供视频优先的客户反馈平台，通过捕捉各种人类信号提供更丰富、更情境化的见解。其客户包括2,100多家企业，以美元计算的净保留率很高。然而，由于S&amp;M的高支出，它仍然无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Australia’s&nbsp;<b>Iris Energy</b>(IREN), a Bitcoin mining company primarily powered by renewable energy, plans to raise $215 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Iris acquired its first site in British Columbia in January 2021, which has approximately 30 MW of capacity and operating hashrate capacity of 0.7EH/s. The company is dependent on the Bitcoin market, and while prices have risen near all-time highs, it remains highly volatile.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚的<b>虹膜能量</b>(IREN)是一家主要由可再生能源供电的比特币矿业公司，计划以14亿美元的市值筹集2.15亿美元。Iris于2021年1月收购了其在不列颠哥伦比亚省的第一个站点，该站点的容量约为30兆瓦，运行算力容量为0.7 EH/s。该公司依赖比特币市场，尽管价格已升至接近历史高点，但仍高度波动。</blockquote></p><p> Germany-based&nbsp;<b>Sono Group</b>(SEV) plans to raise $150 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. The company is developing what it believes is disruptive solar technology, as well as a solar and battery powered vehicle. Despite already accepting 16,000 pre-orders worth $390 million in net sales, it is not expected to reach commercialization until 2023, and will remain highly unprofitable for years.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于德国<b>索诺集团</b>(SEV)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。该公司正在开发它认为是颠覆性的太阳能技术，以及太阳能和电池驱动的汽车。尽管已经接受了16,000份预购订单，净销售额为3.9亿美元，但预计要到2023年才能实现商业化，并且多年来仍将高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. The company currently has interests in four gold exploration properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四个黄金勘探矿区的权益，目前只有一个矿区被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e8c1cff28007ea86b0a909cd54cc1f\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"683\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 11/11/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 3.6% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 23.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Uber Technologies (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 18.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.7%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年11月11日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了3.6%，而标普500上涨了23.8%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Uber Technologies（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌18.7%，而ACWX指数上涨8.7%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括美团-W大众点评和软银。</blockquote></p><p></p>","source":"lsy1603787993745","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>US IPO Week Ahead: The IPO market settles down with 7 IPOs as the holiday week approaches<blockquote>美国IPO一周：随着假期周的临近，IPO市场稳定下来，有7家IPO</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nUS IPO Week Ahead: The IPO market settles down with 7 IPOs as the holiday week approaches<blockquote>美国IPO一周：随着假期周的临近，IPO市场稳定下来，有7家IPO</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Renaissance Capital</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-14 08:26</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The IPO market is expected to pump the brakes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday with seven IPOs scheduled to raise $1.9 billion in the week ahead.</p><p><blockquote>预计IPO市场将在感恩节假期前踩刹车，未来一周将有七起IPO筹集19亿美元。</blockquote></p><p> Childcare provider&nbsp;<b>KinderCare Learning Companies</b>(KLC) plans to raise $503 million at a $2.7 billion market cap. The company serves children from 6 weeks to 12 years of age through 1,480 early childhood education centers and 650 before- and after-school sites across 40 states and Washington DC. While KinderCare is a leader in the early childhood education market, its business been significantly disrupted by the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>托儿服务提供者<b>KinderCare学习公司</b>(KLC)计划以27亿美元的市值筹集5.03亿美元。该公司通过遍布40个州和华盛顿州DC的1,480个幼儿教育中心和650个学前和课后场所为6周至12岁的儿童提供服务。虽然KinderCare是幼儿教育市场的领导者，但其业务受到了疫情的严重干扰。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Braze</b>(BRZE) plans to raise $460 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. Founder-led Braze provides a customer engagement platform used by businesses to improve their marketing. Unprofitable with strong growth, Braze serves over 1,100 clients with net revenue retention of 120%+ as of 7/31/21.</p><p><blockquote><b>钎焊</b>(BRZE)计划以59亿美元的市值筹集4.6亿美元。创始人领导的Braze提供了一个客户参与平台，供企业用来改善其营销。截至2011年7月31日，Braze为1,100多家客户提供服务，净收入保留率为120%以上，但增长强劲。</blockquote></p><p> Fast casual salad chain&nbsp;<b>Sweetgreen</b>(SG) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.9 billion market cap. Sweetgreen owned and operated 140 restaurants in 13 states and Washington DC as of 9/26/21. The company has a strong digital presence and plans double its store count in the next three to five years, though it has yet to achieve profitability.</p><p><blockquote>快速休闲沙拉连锁店<b>甜绿</b>(SG)计划以29亿美元的市值筹集3亿美元。截至2011年9月26日，Sweetgreen在13个州和华盛顿州DC拥有并经营140家餐厅。该公司拥有强大的数字业务，并计划在未来三到五年内将其商店数量增加一倍，尽管尚未实现盈利。</blockquote></p><p> <b>UserTesting</b>(USER) plans to raise $227 million at a $2.6 billion market cap. The company provides a video-first customer feedback platform for enterprises, providing richer, more contextualized insights by capturing various human signals. Its customers include a diverse base of more than 2,100 enterprises, with strong net dollar-based retention. However, it remains unprofitable due to high S&amp;M spend.</p><p><blockquote><b>用户测试</b>（用户）计划以26亿美元的市值筹集2.27亿美元。该公司为企业提供视频优先的客户反馈平台，通过捕捉各种人类信号提供更丰富、更情境化的见解。其客户包括2,100多家企业，以美元计算的净保留率很高。然而，由于S&amp;M的高支出，它仍然无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Australia’s&nbsp;<b>Iris Energy</b>(IREN), a Bitcoin mining company primarily powered by renewable energy, plans to raise $215 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Iris acquired its first site in British Columbia in January 2021, which has approximately 30 MW of capacity and operating hashrate capacity of 0.7EH/s. The company is dependent on the Bitcoin market, and while prices have risen near all-time highs, it remains highly volatile.</p><p><blockquote>澳大利亚的<b>虹膜能量</b>(IREN)是一家主要由可再生能源供电的比特币矿业公司，计划以14亿美元的市值筹集2.15亿美元。Iris于2021年1月收购了其在不列颠哥伦比亚省的第一个站点，该站点的容量约为30兆瓦，运行算力容量为0.7 EH/s。该公司依赖比特币市场，尽管价格已升至接近历史高点，但仍高度波动。</blockquote></p><p> Germany-based&nbsp;<b>Sono Group</b>(SEV) plans to raise $150 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. The company is developing what it believes is disruptive solar technology, as well as a solar and battery powered vehicle. Despite already accepting 16,000 pre-orders worth $390 million in net sales, it is not expected to reach commercialization until 2023, and will remain highly unprofitable for years.</p><p><blockquote>总部位于德国<b>索诺集团</b>(SEV)计划以11亿美元的市值筹集1.5亿美元。该公司正在开发它认为是颠覆性的太阳能技术，以及太阳能和电池驱动的汽车。尽管已经接受了16,000份预购订单，净销售额为3.9亿美元，但预计要到2023年才能实现商业化，并且多年来仍将高度无利可图。</blockquote></p><p> Canadian gold exploration company&nbsp;<b>Austin Gold</b>(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. The company currently has interests in four gold exploration properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.</p><p><blockquote>加拿大黄金勘探公司<b>奥斯汀·戈尔德</b>(AUST)计划以6400万美元的市值筹集1500万美元。该公司目前拥有位于内华达州的四个黄金勘探矿区的权益，目前只有一个矿区被认为是重要的。迄今为止，奥斯汀黄金尚未产生任何营业收入。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/c7e8c1cff28007ea86b0a909cd54cc1f\" tg-width=\"1129\" tg-height=\"683\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> <b>IPO Market Snapshot</b></p><p><blockquote><b>IPO市场快照</b></blockquote></p><p> The Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 11/11/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 3.6% year-to-date, while the S&amp;P 500 was up 23.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Uber Technologies (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 18.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.7%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.</p><p><blockquote>文艺复兴IPO指数是新上市公司的市值加权篮子。截至2021年11月11日，文艺复兴IPO指数今年迄今上涨了3.6%，而标普500上涨了23.8%。Renaissance Capital的IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPO）跟踪该指数，持有的顶级ETF包括Snowflake（SNOW）和Uber Technologies（UBER）。Renaissance International IPO指数今年迄今下跌18.7%，而ACWX指数上涨8.7%。Renaissance Capital的国际IPO ETF（纽约证券交易所股票代码：IPOS）跟踪该指数，持有最多的ETF包括美团-W大众点评和软银。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/88589/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-IPO-market-settles-down-with-7-IPOs-as-the-holiday-we\">Renaissance Capital</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"IREN":"IREN Ltd","SG":"Sweetgreen, Inc.",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite","BRZE":"Braze, Inc.","AUST.AU":"BETASHARES MANAGED RISK AUST","USER":"UserTesting, INC.",".SPX":"S&P 500 Index","KLC":"KinderCare Learning Companies, Inc. (Revived IPO)",".DJI":"道琼斯","SEV":"Aptera Motors"},"source_url":"https://www.renaissancecapital.com/IPO-Center/News/88589/US-IPO-Week-Ahead-The-IPO-market-settles-down-with-7-IPOs-as-the-holiday-we","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1186112608","content_text":"The IPO market is expected to pump the brakes ahead of the Thanksgiving holiday with seven IPOs scheduled to raise $1.9 billion in the week ahead.\nChildcare provider KinderCare Learning Companies(KLC) plans to raise $503 million at a $2.7 billion market cap. The company serves children from 6 weeks to 12 years of age through 1,480 early childhood education centers and 650 before- and after-school sites across 40 states and Washington DC. While KinderCare is a leader in the early childhood education market, its business been significantly disrupted by the pandemic.\nBraze(BRZE) plans to raise $460 million at a $5.9 billion market cap. Founder-led Braze provides a customer engagement platform used by businesses to improve their marketing. Unprofitable with strong growth, Braze serves over 1,100 clients with net revenue retention of 120%+ as of 7/31/21.\nFast casual salad chain Sweetgreen(SG) plans to raise $300 million at a $2.9 billion market cap. Sweetgreen owned and operated 140 restaurants in 13 states and Washington DC as of 9/26/21. The company has a strong digital presence and plans double its store count in the next three to five years, though it has yet to achieve profitability.\nUserTesting(USER) plans to raise $227 million at a $2.6 billion market cap. The company provides a video-first customer feedback platform for enterprises, providing richer, more contextualized insights by capturing various human signals. Its customers include a diverse base of more than 2,100 enterprises, with strong net dollar-based retention. However, it remains unprofitable due to high S&M spend.\nAustralia’s Iris Energy(IREN), a Bitcoin mining company primarily powered by renewable energy, plans to raise $215 million at a $1.4 billion market cap. Iris acquired its first site in British Columbia in January 2021, which has approximately 30 MW of capacity and operating hashrate capacity of 0.7EH/s. The company is dependent on the Bitcoin market, and while prices have risen near all-time highs, it remains highly volatile.\nGermany-based Sono Group(SEV) plans to raise $150 million at a $1.1 billion market cap. The company is developing what it believes is disruptive solar technology, as well as a solar and battery powered vehicle. Despite already accepting 16,000 pre-orders worth $390 million in net sales, it is not expected to reach commercialization until 2023, and will remain highly unprofitable for years.\nCanadian gold exploration company Austin Gold(AUST) plans to raise $15 million at a $64 million market cap. The company currently has interests in four gold exploration properties located in the state of Nevada, with just one property that it considers material at this time. Austin Gold has not generated any operating revenues to date.\n\nIPO Market Snapshot\nThe Renaissance IPO Indices are market cap weighted baskets of newly public companies. As of 11/11/2021, the Renaissance IPO Index was up 3.6% year-to-date, while the S&P 500 was up 23.8%. Renaissance Capital's IPO ETF (NYSE: IPO) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Snowflake (SNOW) and Uber Technologies (UBER). The Renaissance International IPO Index was down 18.7% year-to-date, while the ACWX was up 8.7%. Renaissance Capital’s International IPO ETF (NYSE: IPOS) tracks the index, and top ETF holdings include Meituan-Dianping and SoftBank.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"USER":0.9,"KLC":0.9,"SEV":0.9,"IREN":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"AUST.AU":0.9,".IXIC":0.9,"SG":0.9,"BRZE":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":603,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879145134,"gmtCreate":1636695604516,"gmtModify":1636695622030,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879145134","repostId":"1137718483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137718483","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636677707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137718483?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137718483","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"$Alibaba$ Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.Alibaba and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day c","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.</li>  <li>Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.</li>  <li>Alibaba&nbsp;and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.</li> </ul> The market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>自13个月前达到峰值以来，该集团股价已暴跌49%。</li><li>鉴于中国的“共同富裕”倡议，阿里巴巴-SW的光棍节今非昔比。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW和另外两家美国前市场宠儿很有可能从这里反弹。</li></ul>市场越来越不稳定，但交易价格仍接近近期历史高点。您是否正在等待市场遭受重创，然后才将资金放在场外发挥作用？嗯，很多去年最大的明星已经坠毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding</b>(NYSE:BABA),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>&nbsp;have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA），<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</b>，和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>自触及历史高点以来，均暴跌至少40%。降价似乎有些过头了。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Alibaba</p><p><blockquote>1.阿里巴巴-SW</blockquote></p><p> Thursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.</p><p><blockquote>对于中国的在线零售商来说，周四应该是个大日子。今天是光棍节！阿里巴巴-SW创造了每年11月11日举行的购物假期——因为11/11日期而被称为光棍节——但此后它被较小的电子零售商广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> Singles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.</p><p><blockquote>今年的光棍节有所不同。中国政府推动的“共同富裕”发现吹捧商业和消费是不时髦的。阿里巴巴-SW不太可能达到去年“双11”庆祝活动期间740亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW进入光棍节，交易价格比去年年底创下的历史高点低49%。在中国政府打击多个行业后，投资者避开了中国的成长型股票，但光棍节真正便宜的可能是阿里巴巴-SW本身的股票。过去十年，该公司的收入每年至少增长32%。即使现在阿里巴巴-SW正在努力应对COVID-19危机和该国的共同繁荣目标，追踪收入仍增长了40%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</p><p><blockquote>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</blockquote></p><p> The rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video的兴衰众所周知。在疫情的最初几个月，当面对面的课程、工作会议以及朋友和家人的聚会都不安全时，视频会议平台的受欢迎程度飙升。现在我们大部分人都接种了疫苗，病例数也减少了，Zoom真的有未来吗？</blockquote></p><p> The market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>市场似乎认为未来将黯淡无光。与阿里巴巴-SW一样，Zoom的股价在13个月前见顶。自该高点以来，Zoom股价已暴跌57%。这里的转折是Zoom仍在增长。最近一个季度收入增长了54%。当然，收入正在减速。我们不会回到Zoom在前五份季度报告中每份报告中公布的三位数营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom仍在复苏的环境中增长。视频会议将继续是一种具有成本效益的聚集和完成工作的方式。Zoom正在充实其产品，最近一次失败的收购尝试不会阻止这一演变过程。去年有一段疯狂的时期，Zoom的交易价格是往绩收入的100多倍。令人兴奋的销售增长和股价的连击发现，目前市盈率已降至仅20倍。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Pinterest</p><p><blockquote>3.Pinterest</blockquote></p><p> A year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，我们依靠Pinterest变得狡猾。一旦我们能够在疫情之后安全旅行，视觉发现引擎是食谱、装饰技巧和关于我们想去的目的地的白日梦的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Everything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.</p><p><blockquote>对Pinterest来说，一切都很顺利，直到我们冷静下来，扔掉我们的酸面团发酵剂，出去吃别人的面包。Pinterest现在的活跃用户连续下降令投资者震惊。该股已较2月份的峰值暴跌49%。</blockquote></p><p> Last month&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</b>&nbsp;was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.</p><p><blockquote>上个月<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>控股</b>据报道，该公司正在就收购Pinterest进行谈判，这笔交易主要是股票交易，Pinterest的估值将达到每股70美元。那些对持有更多股票感到自豪的Pinterest投资者希望有机会回到那里，因为自拟议的合并取消以来，该股已大幅下跌。Pinterest必须升值53%才能达到现在的70美元。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的股票在最初的传言中遭到抛售，但即使现在交易尚未摆在桌面上，该股仍在继续下跌。既然这两只股票都失宠了，它可能不会卷土重来，但Pinterest仍然拥有一个充满活力的平台，货币化程度不断提高。随着广告商蜂拥其营销机会以吸引利润丰厚的Pinterest受众，收入仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW、Zoom和Pinterest仍然是蓬勃发展的成长型股票。该股的交易价格恰好比历史高点低了49%至57%。你不需要等到市场崩盘时再买便宜货。他们现在就在外面。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-12 08:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.</li>  <li>Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.</li>  <li>Alibaba&nbsp;and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.</li> </ul> The market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>自13个月前达到峰值以来，该集团股价已暴跌49%。</li><li>鉴于中国的“共同富裕”倡议，阿里巴巴-SW的光棍节今非昔比。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW和另外两家美国前市场宠儿很有可能从这里反弹。</li></ul>市场越来越不稳定，但交易价格仍接近近期历史高点。您是否正在等待市场遭受重创，然后才将资金放在场外发挥作用？嗯，很多去年最大的明星已经坠毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding</b>(NYSE:BABA),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>&nbsp;have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA），<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</b>，和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>自触及历史高点以来，均暴跌至少40%。降价似乎有些过头了。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Alibaba</p><p><blockquote>1.阿里巴巴-SW</blockquote></p><p> Thursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.</p><p><blockquote>对于中国的在线零售商来说，周四应该是个大日子。今天是光棍节！阿里巴巴-SW创造了每年11月11日举行的购物假期——因为11/11日期而被称为光棍节——但此后它被较小的电子零售商广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> Singles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.</p><p><blockquote>今年的光棍节有所不同。中国政府推动的“共同富裕”发现吹捧商业和消费是不时髦的。阿里巴巴-SW不太可能达到去年“双11”庆祝活动期间740亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW进入光棍节，交易价格比去年年底创下的历史高点低49%。在中国政府打击多个行业后，投资者避开了中国的成长型股票，但光棍节真正便宜的可能是阿里巴巴-SW本身的股票。过去十年，该公司的收入每年至少增长32%。即使现在阿里巴巴-SW正在努力应对COVID-19危机和该国的共同繁荣目标，追踪收入仍增长了40%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</p><p><blockquote>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</blockquote></p><p> The rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video的兴衰众所周知。在疫情的最初几个月，当面对面的课程、工作会议以及朋友和家人的聚会都不安全时，视频会议平台的受欢迎程度飙升。现在我们大部分人都接种了疫苗，病例数也减少了，Zoom真的有未来吗？</blockquote></p><p> The market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>市场似乎认为未来将黯淡无光。与阿里巴巴-SW一样，Zoom的股价在13个月前见顶。自该高点以来，Zoom股价已暴跌57%。这里的转折是Zoom仍在增长。最近一个季度收入增长了54%。当然，收入正在减速。我们不会回到Zoom在前五份季度报告中每份报告中公布的三位数营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom仍在复苏的环境中增长。视频会议将继续是一种具有成本效益的聚集和完成工作的方式。Zoom正在充实其产品，最近一次失败的收购尝试不会阻止这一演变过程。去年有一段疯狂的时期，Zoom的交易价格是往绩收入的100多倍。令人兴奋的销售增长和股价的连击发现，目前市盈率已降至仅20倍。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Pinterest</p><p><blockquote>3.Pinterest</blockquote></p><p> A year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，我们依靠Pinterest变得狡猾。一旦我们能够在疫情之后安全旅行，视觉发现引擎是食谱、装饰技巧和关于我们想去的目的地的白日梦的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Everything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.</p><p><blockquote>对Pinterest来说，一切都很顺利，直到我们冷静下来，扔掉我们的酸面团发酵剂，出去吃别人的面包。Pinterest现在的活跃用户连续下降令投资者震惊。该股已较2月份的峰值暴跌49%。</blockquote></p><p> Last month&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</b>&nbsp;was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.</p><p><blockquote>上个月<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>控股</b>据报道，该公司正在就收购Pinterest进行谈判，这笔交易主要是股票交易，Pinterest的估值将达到每股70美元。那些对持有更多股票感到自豪的Pinterest投资者希望有机会回到那里，因为自拟议的合并取消以来，该股已大幅下跌。Pinterest必须升值53%才能达到现在的70美元。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的股票在最初的传言中遭到抛售，但即使现在交易尚未摆在桌面上，该股仍在继续下跌。既然这两只股票都失宠了，它可能不会卷土重来，但Pinterest仍然拥有一个充满活力的平台，货币化程度不断提高。随着广告商蜂拥其营销机会以吸引利润丰厚的Pinterest受众，收入仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW、Zoom和Pinterest仍然是蓬勃发展的成长型股票。该股的交易价格恰好比历史高点低了49%至57%。你不需要等到市场崩盘时再买便宜货。他们现在就在外面。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/11/why-wait-for-a-crash-to-buy-these-3-top-stocks-are/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","BABA":"阿里巴巴","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/11/why-wait-for-a-crash-to-buy-these-3-top-stocks-are/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137718483","content_text":"Key Points\n\nAlibaba Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.\nAlibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.\nAlibaba and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.\n\nThe market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.\nShares ofAlibaba Group Holding(NYSE:BABA),Zoom Video, and Pinterest have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.\n1. Alibaba\nThursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.\nSingles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.\nAlibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.\n2. Zoom Video\nThe rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?\nThe market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.\nHowever, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.\n3. Pinterest\nA year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.\nEverything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.\nLast month PayPal Holdings was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.\nPayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.\nAlibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"PINS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870205158,"gmtCreate":1636618830200,"gmtModify":1636618830404,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U77.SI\">$SARINE TECHNOLOGIES LTD(U77.SI)$</a>comments?","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/U77.SI\">$SARINE TECHNOLOGIES LTD(U77.SI)$</a>comments?","text":"$SARINE TECHNOLOGIES LTD(U77.SI)$comments?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/e16ab67656e30133cba51b0262adf4b5","width":"1080","height":"2248"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":3,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/870205158","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":1298,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":847112457,"gmtCreate":1636501035783,"gmtModify":1636501036007,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/847112457","repostId":"1127189501","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":701,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842844076,"gmtCreate":1636165068270,"gmtModify":1636165068472,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CF\">$CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)$</a>will go up...","listText":"<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/CF\">$CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)$</a>will go up...","text":"$CF Industries Holdings Inc(CF)$will go up...","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/352cd7c82c0294f0fbcf0bcaebb5e24c","width":"1080","height":"1920"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":2,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842844076","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":841,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842842502,"gmtCreate":1636165002116,"gmtModify":1636165002305,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/842842502","repostId":"1151272699","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1151272699","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1636119828,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1151272699?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-05 21:43","market":"us","language":"en","title":"EV stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1151272699","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"EV stocks dipped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Nikola,Niu Technologies,Lucid and","content":"<p>EV stocks dipped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Nikola,Niu Technologies,Lucid&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lordstown&nbsp;fell 0.6% and 9%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、尼古拉、小牛电动、Lucid和洛兹敦分别下跌0.6%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3036f15ab386c25977cf2802135fe80f\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>EV stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ 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0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nEV stocks dipped in morning trading<blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-11-05 21:43</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>EV stocks dipped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Nikola,Niu Technologies,Lucid&nbsp;and&nbsp;Lordstown&nbsp;fell 0.6% and 9%.</p><p><blockquote>电动汽车股早盘下跌。特斯拉、蔚来、小鹏汽车、理想汽车、尼古拉、小牛电动、Lucid和洛兹敦分别下跌0.6%和9%。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/3036f15ab386c25977cf2802135fe80f\" tg-width=\"409\" tg-height=\"719\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"TSLA":"特斯拉"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1151272699","content_text":"EV stocks dipped in morning trading.Tesla,Nio,Xpeng Motors,Li Auto,Nikola,Niu Technologies,Lucid and Lordstown fell 0.6% and 9%.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"TSLA":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":765,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":842854695,"gmtCreate":1636164543616,"gmtModify":1636164594674,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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bear?","images":[{"img":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/ba2341d50fca713780beb558d429bbb8","width":"1080","height":"3167"}],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":3,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":2,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/862577481","isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":660,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":1,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":872183108,"gmtCreate":1637458279236,"gmtModify":1637458279328,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":2,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/872183108","repostId":"2184828468","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2964,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":870205158,"gmtCreate":1636618830200,"gmtModify":1636618830404,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"<a 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stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633270535,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1181558340?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-03 22:15","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Here is Top 20 S&P 500 winners in the third-quarter<blockquote>以下是第三季度标普500前20名获奖者</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1181558340","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"The S&P 500 suffered worst month In September, but it still eked out a 0.2% gain for the third quart","content":"<p>The S&amp;P 500 suffered worst month In September, but it still eked out a 0.2% gain for the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在9月份遭受了最糟糕的月份，但第三季度仍勉强上涨了0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Lots&nbsp;of&nbsp;stocks’ gains for the year were offset by the September slump.But&nbsp;there&nbsp;are&nbsp;some&nbsp;stocks helped keep the market afloat .</p><p><blockquote>许多股票今年的涨幅被9月份的暴跌所抵消。但也有一些股票帮助市场保持了稳定。</blockquote></p><p> CNBC ranked the top performers in S&amp;P&nbsp;500 index for the&nbsp;third quarter using data from FactSet. The top 20 are dominated by lesser-known names in health care, technology and financials. Energy, the only sector to finish higher in September, made a small appearance.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC使用FactSet的数据对第三季度标准普尔500指数中表现最好的公司进行了排名。前20名由医疗保健、科技和金融领域鲜为人知的公司主导。能源是9月份唯一收高的板块，小幅亮相。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the biggest third-quarter winners in the S&amp;P 500:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd6449e408f045d2210f515fa5677ab3\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"1564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> generated the highest return in the S&amp;P for the third quarter, about 60%, as Covid-19 vaccines continued being rolled out to more people and talk of a Covid booster shot evolved. The vaccine maker’s stock popped after it announced it would test a combined Covid and flu vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>以下是标普500第三季度最大的赢家：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a>随着Covid-19疫苗继续向更多人推广以及有关Covid加强注射的讨论不断发展，第三季度在S&amp;P中产生了最高的回报率，约为60%。这家疫苗制造商宣布将测试新冠和流感联合疫苗后，其股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Also,&nbsp;Moderna is higher by a whopping 268% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Moderna今年的股价也上涨了268%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYC\">Paycom Software, Inc.</a>&nbsp;is only up about 8% for the year. Still, the payroll services company generated the second-largest returns for the quarter, about 36%, as people began reentering the workforce. Government stimulus targeted at mid-market and small businesses helped the firm as well, according to Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYC\">Paycom软件公司。</a>今年仅增长了约8%。尽管如此，随着人们开始重新进入劳动力市场，这家薪资服务公司本季度的回报率仍位居第二，约为36%。奥本海默的布莱恩·施瓦茨表示，政府针对中端市场和小型企业的刺激措施也帮助了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">Monolithic Power Systems</a> a high-performance analog semiconductor company, was up 29% for the quarter and about 32% for the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">单片电源系统</a>一家高性能模拟半导体公司，本季度增长29%，全年增长约32%。</blockquote></p><p> Quanta Services, a contracting services company, gained about 25% for the quarter. Stifel recently said the stock saw an impact from both lower oil prices and Covid-related shelter in place orders and that it anticipates some recovery in the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>承包服务公司Quanta Services本季度股价上涨约25%。Stifel最近表示，该股受到油价下跌和与新冠疫情相关的避难所订单的影响，预计下半年市场将有所复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices dipped in the middle of the quarter but have been rallying since. While many of the top performers for the third quarter had a down month in September or eked out small gains, Quanta is up more than 11% for the month.</p><p><blockquote>油价在本季度中期下跌，但此后一直在上涨。尽管许多第三季度表现最好的公司在9月份出现了下滑或小幅上涨，但广达当月上涨了11%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Here is Top 20 S&P 500 winners in the third-quarter<blockquote>以下是第三季度标普500前20名获奖者</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nHere is Top 20 S&P 500 winners in the third-quarter<blockquote>以下是第三季度标普500前20名获奖者</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-03 22:15</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>The S&amp;P 500 suffered worst month In September, but it still eked out a 0.2% gain for the third quarter.</p><p><blockquote>标普500在9月份遭受了最糟糕的月份，但第三季度仍勉强上涨了0.2%。</blockquote></p><p> Lots&nbsp;of&nbsp;stocks’ gains for the year were offset by the September slump.But&nbsp;there&nbsp;are&nbsp;some&nbsp;stocks helped keep the market afloat .</p><p><blockquote>许多股票今年的涨幅被9月份的暴跌所抵消。但也有一些股票帮助市场保持了稳定。</blockquote></p><p> CNBC ranked the top performers in S&amp;P&nbsp;500 index for the&nbsp;third quarter using data from FactSet. The top 20 are dominated by lesser-known names in health care, technology and financials. Energy, the only sector to finish higher in September, made a small appearance.</p><p><blockquote>CNBC使用FactSet的数据对第三季度标准普尔500指数中表现最好的公司进行了排名。前20名由医疗保健、科技和金融领域鲜为人知的公司主导。能源是9月份唯一收高的板块，小幅亮相。</blockquote></p><p> Here are the biggest third-quarter winners in the S&amp;P 500:<img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/dd6449e408f045d2210f515fa5677ab3\" tg-width=\"1048\" tg-height=\"1564\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">Moderna, Inc.</a> generated the highest return in the S&amp;P for the third quarter, about 60%, as Covid-19 vaccines continued being rolled out to more people and talk of a Covid booster shot evolved. The vaccine maker’s stock popped after it announced it would test a combined Covid and flu vaccine.</p><p><blockquote>以下是标普500第三季度最大的赢家：<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MRNA\">莫德纳公司。</a>随着Covid-19疫苗继续向更多人推广以及有关Covid加强注射的讨论不断发展，第三季度在S&amp;P中产生了最高的回报率，约为60%。这家疫苗制造商宣布将测试新冠和流感联合疫苗后，其股价飙升。</blockquote></p><p> Also,&nbsp;Moderna is higher by a whopping 268% for the year.</p><p><blockquote>此外，Moderna今年的股价也上涨了268%。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYC\">Paycom Software, Inc.</a>&nbsp;is only up about 8% for the year. Still, the payroll services company generated the second-largest returns for the quarter, about 36%, as people began reentering the workforce. Government stimulus targeted at mid-market and small businesses helped the firm as well, according to Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PAYC\">Paycom软件公司。</a>今年仅增长了约8%。尽管如此，随着人们开始重新进入劳动力市场，这家薪资服务公司本季度的回报率仍位居第二，约为36%。奥本海默的布莱恩·施瓦茨表示，政府针对中端市场和小型企业的刺激措施也帮助了该公司。</blockquote></p><p> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">Monolithic Power Systems</a> a high-performance analog semiconductor company, was up 29% for the quarter and about 32% for the year.</p><p><blockquote><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MPWR\">单片电源系统</a>一家高性能模拟半导体公司，本季度增长29%，全年增长约32%。</blockquote></p><p> Quanta Services, a contracting services company, gained about 25% for the quarter. Stifel recently said the stock saw an impact from both lower oil prices and Covid-related shelter in place orders and that it anticipates some recovery in the market in the second half of the year.</p><p><blockquote>承包服务公司Quanta Services本季度股价上涨约25%。Stifel最近表示，该股受到油价下跌和与新冠疫情相关的避难所订单的影响，预计下半年市场将有所复苏。</blockquote></p><p> Oil prices dipped in the middle of the quarter but have been rallying since. While many of the top performers for the third quarter had a down month in September or eked out small gains, Quanta is up more than 11% for the month.</p><p><blockquote>油价在本季度中期下跌，但此后一直在上涨。尽管许多第三季度表现最好的公司在9月份出现了下滑或小幅上涨，但广达当月上涨了11%以上。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"MRNA":"Moderna, Inc.","MPWR":"Monolithic Power Systems","PWR":"广达公司","PAYC":"Paycom Software, Inc."},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1181558340","content_text":"The S&P 500 suffered worst month In September, but it still eked out a 0.2% gain for the third quarter.\nLots of stocks’ gains for the year were offset by the September slump.But there are some stocks helped keep the market afloat .\nCNBC ranked the top performers in S&P 500 index for the third quarter using data from FactSet. The top 20 are dominated by lesser-known names in health care, technology and financials. Energy, the only sector to finish higher in September, made a small appearance.\nHere are the biggest third-quarter winners in the S&P 500:Moderna, Inc. generated the highest return in the S&P for the third quarter, about 60%, as Covid-19 vaccines continued being rolled out to more people and talk of a Covid booster shot evolved. The vaccine maker’s stock popped after it announced it would test a combined Covid and flu vaccine.\nAlso, Moderna is higher by a whopping 268% for the year.\nPaycom Software, Inc. is only up about 8% for the year. Still, the payroll services company generated the second-largest returns for the quarter, about 36%, as people began reentering the workforce. Government stimulus targeted at mid-market and small businesses helped the firm as well, according to Oppenheimer’s Brian Schwartz.\nMonolithic Power Systems a high-performance analog semiconductor company, was up 29% for the quarter and about 32% for the year.\nQuanta Services, a contracting services company, gained about 25% for the quarter. Stifel recently said the stock saw an impact from both lower oil prices and Covid-related shelter in place orders and that it anticipates some recovery in the market in the second half of the year.\nOil prices dipped in the middle of the quarter but have been rallying since. While many of the top performers for the third quarter had a down month in September or eked out small gains, Quanta is up more than 11% for the month.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"MRNA":0.9,"PWR":0.9,"PAYC":0.9,"MPWR":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":354,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":879145134,"gmtCreate":1636695604516,"gmtModify":1636695622030,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":5,"commentSize":1,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/879145134","repostId":"1137718483","repostType":2,"repost":{"id":"1137718483","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1636677707,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1137718483?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-12 08:41","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Why Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1137718483","media":"Motley Fool","summary":"$Alibaba$ Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.Alibaba and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day c","content":"<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.</li>  <li>Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.</li>  <li>Alibaba&nbsp;and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.</li> </ul> The market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>自13个月前达到峰值以来，该集团股价已暴跌49%。</li><li>鉴于中国的“共同富裕”倡议，阿里巴巴-SW的光棍节今非昔比。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW和另外两家美国前市场宠儿很有可能从这里反弹。</li></ul>市场越来越不稳定，但交易价格仍接近近期历史高点。您是否正在等待市场遭受重创，然后才将资金放在场外发挥作用？嗯，很多去年最大的明星已经坠毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding</b>(NYSE:BABA),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>&nbsp;have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA），<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</b>，和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>自触及历史高点以来，均暴跌至少40%。降价似乎有些过头了。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Alibaba</p><p><blockquote>1.阿里巴巴-SW</blockquote></p><p> Thursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.</p><p><blockquote>对于中国的在线零售商来说，周四应该是个大日子。今天是光棍节！阿里巴巴-SW创造了每年11月11日举行的购物假期——因为11/11日期而被称为光棍节——但此后它被较小的电子零售商广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> Singles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.</p><p><blockquote>今年的光棍节有所不同。中国政府推动的“共同富裕”发现吹捧商业和消费是不时髦的。阿里巴巴-SW不太可能达到去年“双11”庆祝活动期间740亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW进入光棍节，交易价格比去年年底创下的历史高点低49%。在中国政府打击多个行业后，投资者避开了中国的成长型股票，但光棍节真正便宜的可能是阿里巴巴-SW本身的股票。过去十年，该公司的收入每年至少增长32%。即使现在阿里巴巴-SW正在努力应对COVID-19危机和该国的共同繁荣目标，追踪收入仍增长了40%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</p><p><blockquote>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</blockquote></p><p> The rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video的兴衰众所周知。在疫情的最初几个月，当面对面的课程、工作会议以及朋友和家人的聚会都不安全时，视频会议平台的受欢迎程度飙升。现在我们大部分人都接种了疫苗，病例数也减少了，Zoom真的有未来吗？</blockquote></p><p> The market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>市场似乎认为未来将黯淡无光。与阿里巴巴-SW一样，Zoom的股价在13个月前见顶。自该高点以来，Zoom股价已暴跌57%。这里的转折是Zoom仍在增长。最近一个季度收入增长了54%。当然，收入正在减速。我们不会回到Zoom在前五份季度报告中每份报告中公布的三位数营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom仍在复苏的环境中增长。视频会议将继续是一种具有成本效益的聚集和完成工作的方式。Zoom正在充实其产品，最近一次失败的收购尝试不会阻止这一演变过程。去年有一段疯狂的时期，Zoom的交易价格是往绩收入的100多倍。令人兴奋的销售增长和股价的连击发现，目前市盈率已降至仅20倍。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Pinterest</p><p><blockquote>3.Pinterest</blockquote></p><p> A year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，我们依靠Pinterest变得狡猾。一旦我们能够在疫情之后安全旅行，视觉发现引擎是食谱、装饰技巧和关于我们想去的目的地的白日梦的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Everything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.</p><p><blockquote>对Pinterest来说，一切都很顺利，直到我们冷静下来，扔掉我们的酸面团发酵剂，出去吃别人的面包。Pinterest现在的活跃用户连续下降令投资者震惊。该股已较2月份的峰值暴跌49%。</blockquote></p><p> Last month&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</b>&nbsp;was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.</p><p><blockquote>上个月<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>控股</b>据报道，该公司正在就收购Pinterest进行谈判，这笔交易主要是股票交易，Pinterest的估值将达到每股70美元。那些对持有更多股票感到自豪的Pinterest投资者希望有机会回到那里，因为自拟议的合并取消以来，该股已大幅下跌。Pinterest必须升值53%才能达到现在的70美元。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的股票在最初的传言中遭到抛售，但即使现在交易尚未摆在桌面上，该股仍在继续下跌。既然这两只股票都失宠了，它可能不会卷土重来，但Pinterest仍然拥有一个充满活力的平台，货币化程度不断提高。随着广告商蜂拥其营销机会以吸引利润丰厚的Pinterest受众，收入仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW、Zoom和Pinterest仍然是蓬勃发展的成长型股票。该股的交易价格恰好比历史高点低了49%至57%。你不需要等到市场崩盘时再买便宜货。他们现在就在外面。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Why Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhy Wait for a Crash to Buy? These 3 Top Stocks Are Already Down More Than 40%<blockquote>为什么要等到崩盘才买入？这3只顶级股票已下跌超过40%</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Motley Fool</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-12 08:41</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>Key Points</p><p><blockquote>要点</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">Alibaba</a> Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.</li>  <li>Alibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.</li>  <li>Alibaba&nbsp;and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.</li> </ul> The market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BABA\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>自13个月前达到峰值以来，该集团股价已暴跌49%。</li><li>鉴于中国的“共同富裕”倡议，阿里巴巴-SW的光棍节今非昔比。</li><li>阿里巴巴-SW和另外两家美国前市场宠儿很有可能从这里反弹。</li></ul>市场越来越不稳定，但交易价格仍接近近期历史高点。您是否正在等待市场遭受重创，然后才将资金放在场外发挥作用？嗯，很多去年最大的明星已经坠毁了。</blockquote></p><p> Shares of<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">Alibaba</a> Group Holding</b>(NYSE:BABA),<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</b>, and&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>&nbsp;have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.</p><p><blockquote>本公司之股份<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/09988\">阿里巴巴-SW</a>集团控股</b>（纽约证券交易所代码：BABA），<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</b>，和<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PINS\"><b>Pinterest</b></a>自触及历史高点以来，均暴跌至少40%。降价似乎有些过头了。让我们仔细看看。</blockquote></p><p> 1. Alibaba</p><p><blockquote>1.阿里巴巴-SW</blockquote></p><p> Thursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.</p><p><blockquote>对于中国的在线零售商来说，周四应该是个大日子。今天是光棍节！阿里巴巴-SW创造了每年11月11日举行的购物假期——因为11/11日期而被称为光棍节——但此后它被较小的电子零售商广泛采用。</blockquote></p><p> Singles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.</p><p><blockquote>今年的光棍节有所不同。中国政府推动的“共同富裕”发现吹捧商业和消费是不时髦的。阿里巴巴-SW不太可能达到去年“双11”庆祝活动期间740亿美元的销售额。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW进入光棍节，交易价格比去年年底创下的历史高点低49%。在中国政府打击多个行业后，投资者避开了中国的成长型股票，但光棍节真正便宜的可能是阿里巴巴-SW本身的股票。过去十年，该公司的收入每年至少增长32%。即使现在阿里巴巴-SW正在努力应对COVID-19危机和该国的共同繁荣目标，追踪收入仍增长了40%。</blockquote></p><p> 2. <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a> Video</p><p><blockquote>2.<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/ZM\">Zoom</a>录像</blockquote></p><p> The rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?</p><p><blockquote>Zoom Video的兴衰众所周知。在疫情的最初几个月，当面对面的课程、工作会议以及朋友和家人的聚会都不安全时，视频会议平台的受欢迎程度飙升。现在我们大部分人都接种了疫苗，病例数也减少了，Zoom真的有未来吗？</blockquote></p><p> The market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.</p><p><blockquote>市场似乎认为未来将黯淡无光。与阿里巴巴-SW一样，Zoom的股价在13个月前见顶。自该高点以来，Zoom股价已暴跌57%。这里的转折是Zoom仍在增长。最近一个季度收入增长了54%。当然，收入正在减速。我们不会回到Zoom在前五份季度报告中每份报告中公布的三位数营收增长。</blockquote></p><p> However, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.</p><p><blockquote>然而，Zoom仍在复苏的环境中增长。视频会议将继续是一种具有成本效益的聚集和完成工作的方式。Zoom正在充实其产品，最近一次失败的收购尝试不会阻止这一演变过程。去年有一段疯狂的时期，Zoom的交易价格是往绩收入的100多倍。令人兴奋的销售增长和股价的连击发现，目前市盈率已降至仅20倍。</blockquote></p><p> 3. Pinterest</p><p><blockquote>3.Pinterest</blockquote></p><p> A year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.</p><p><blockquote>一年前，我们依靠Pinterest变得狡猾。一旦我们能够在疫情之后安全旅行，视觉发现引擎是食谱、装饰技巧和关于我们想去的目的地的白日梦的宝贵资源。</blockquote></p><p> Everything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.</p><p><blockquote>对Pinterest来说，一切都很顺利，直到我们冷静下来，扔掉我们的酸面团发酵剂，出去吃别人的面包。Pinterest现在的活跃用户连续下降令投资者震惊。该股已较2月份的峰值暴跌49%。</blockquote></p><p> Last month&nbsp;<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a> Holdings</b>&nbsp;was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.</p><p><blockquote>上个月<b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PYPL\">PayPal</a>控股</b>据报道，该公司正在就收购Pinterest进行谈判，这笔交易主要是股票交易，Pinterest的估值将达到每股70美元。那些对持有更多股票感到自豪的Pinterest投资者希望有机会回到那里，因为自拟议的合并取消以来，该股已大幅下跌。Pinterest必须升值53%才能达到现在的70美元。</blockquote></p><p> PayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.</p><p><blockquote>PayPal的股票在最初的传言中遭到抛售，但即使现在交易尚未摆在桌面上，该股仍在继续下跌。既然这两只股票都失宠了，它可能不会卷土重来，但Pinterest仍然拥有一个充满活力的平台，货币化程度不断提高。随着广告商蜂拥其营销机会以吸引利润丰厚的Pinterest受众，收入仍在增长。</blockquote></p><p> Alibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.</p><p><blockquote>阿里巴巴-SW、Zoom和Pinterest仍然是蓬勃发展的成长型股票。该股的交易价格恰好比历史高点低了49%至57%。你不需要等到市场崩盘时再买便宜货。他们现在就在外面。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/11/why-wait-for-a-crash-to-buy-these-3-top-stocks-are/\">Motley Fool</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"ZM":"Zoom","BABA":"阿里巴巴","PINS":"Pinterest, Inc."},"source_url":"https://www.fool.com/investing/2021/11/11/why-wait-for-a-crash-to-buy-these-3-top-stocks-are/","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1137718483","content_text":"Key Points\n\nAlibaba Group has plummeted 49% since peaking 13 months ago.\nAlibaba's Singles' Day isn't what it used to be now given China's \"common prosperity\" initiative.\nAlibaba and two other U.S. former market darlings have a strong chance to bounce back from here.\n\nThe market's getting volatile, but it's still trading close to its recent all-time highs. Are you waiting for the market to take a big hit before putting your money on the sidelines to work? Well, a lot of last year's biggest stars have already crashed.\nShares ofAlibaba Group Holding(NYSE:BABA),Zoom Video, and Pinterest have all plummeted at least 40% since hitting all-time highs. The markdowns seem overdone. Let's take a closer look.\n1. Alibaba\nThursday should've been a big day for China's online retailers. It's Singles' Day! Alibaba created the shopping holiday that takes place every year on Nov. 11 -- called Singles' Day because of the 11/11 date -- but it has since been widely adopted by smaller e-tailers.\nSingles' Day is hitting different this year. China's government push for \"common prosperity\" finds it unfashionable to tout commerce and consumption. Alibaba is highly unlikely to match the $74 billion it rang up in sales during last year's \"Double 11\" celebration.\nAlibaba enters Singles' Day trading 49% below the all-time high it hit late last year. Investors have steered clear of China's growth stocks in the wake of the government's crackdown on several industries, but the real bargain for Singles' Day could be shares of Alibaba itself. It has grown revenue by at least 32% every year over the past decade. Even now as Alibaba grapples with the COVID-19 crisis and the country's common prosperity objectives, trailing revenue has climbed 40%.\n2. Zoom Video\nThe rise and fall of Zoom Video is well known. The videoconferencing platform skyrocketed in popularity during the early months of the pandemic when in-person classes, work meetings, and gatherings of friends and family weren't safe. Now that we're largely vaccinated and case counts are lower is there really a future for Zoom?\nThe market seems to think that the future will be bleak. Like Alibaba, shares of Zoom peaked 13 months ago. Zoom stock has plummeted 57% since that high. The twist here is that Zoom is still growing. Revenue rose 54% inits latest quarter. Sure, revenue is decelerating. We're not going to return to the triple-digit top-line growth that Zoom posted in each of the five previous quarterly reports.\nHowever, Zoom is still growing in the recovery climate. Video meetings will continue to be a cost-effective way to gather and get things done. Zoom is fleshing out its offerings, and a recently fumbled acquisition attempt won't stop the evolutionary process. There was a crazy time last year when Zoom was trading for more than 100 times trailing revenue. The one-two punch of heady sales growth and the cascading stock price finds that multiple whittled down to just 20 right now.\n3. Pinterest\nA year ago we were leaning on Pinterest to get crafty. The visual discovery engine was a valuable resource for recipes, decorating tips, and daydreaming about destinations we wanted to visit once we were able to safely travel after the pandemic.\nEverything was going swimmingly for Pinterest until we were cool to toss out our sourdough starter and head outside to eat someone else's bread. Pinterest has now stunned investors with back-to-back sequential declines in active users. The stock has plummeted 49% from February's peak.\nLast month PayPal Holdings was reportedly negotiating to buy Pinterest in a largely stock deal that would value Pinterest at$70 a share. Pinterest investors who were cocky about holding out for more would love a chance to get back there, as the stock has fallen sharply since the proposed combination came undone. Pinterest would have to appreciate by 53% to get to $70 now.\nPayPal stock sold off on the initial chatter, but it continues to fall even now that a deal is not on the table. It probably won't come back on bended knee now that both stocks are out of favor, but Pinterest still has a vibrant platform with improving monetization. Revenue is still growing as advertisers flock its marketing opportunities to reach the lucrative Pinterest audience.\nAlibaba, Zoom, and Pinterest are still thrivinggrowth stocks. The shares just happen to be trading between 49% and 57% off their all-time highs. You don't need to wait for the market crash to happen to pick up bargains. They're out there now.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"ZM":0.9,"BABA":0.9,"PINS":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":793,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":828489373,"gmtCreate":1633935501493,"gmtModify":1633935501493,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"Good information&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","listText":"Good information&nbsp;[强]&nbsp;","text":"Good information [强]","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":7,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/828489373","repostId":"1189049020","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1189049020","kind":"news","weMediaInfo":{"introduction":"Providing stock market headlines, business news, financials and earnings ","home_visible":1,"media_name":"Tiger Newspress","id":"1079075236","head_image":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba"},"pubTimestamp":1633920404,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1189049020?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-10-11 10:46","market":"us","language":"en","title":"What To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1189049020","media":"Tiger Newspress","summary":"(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of m","content":"<p>(Oct 11) The&nbsp;Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of major financial companies poised to report results. Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（10月11日）第三季度财报季本周正式启动，主要金融公司将公布业绩。投资者一直在焦急地等待最新财报季的开始，并为第二季度强劲后企业利润增长放缓做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cc1643f346c667ff972e41da6bbe71\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The pace of S&amp;P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>由于可以轻松地与遭受新冠疫情蹂躏的2020年和强劲的经济增长进行比较，标普500第二季度的盈利和销售额同比增长速度达到了令人瞠目结舌的水平。进入本报告季的预期更为温和，预计盈利同比增长近28%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，尽管经济活动放缓，实际表现仍应超过这些较高水平。虽然盈利有必要超出预期，但鉴于当前对经济前景和成本压力的担忧，前瞻性指引至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There are 20 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular.&nbsp;</b>According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.</p><p><blockquote><b>本周有20家标普500公司计划公布财报，但主要焦点将是金融股，尤其是银行股。</b>FactSet的数据显示，金融股的盈利增长率应该处于中等水平，普遍预期同比增长率为17%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>日历上还有一些其他公司，如达美航空(DAL)、达美乐披萨(DPZ)、台积电公司(TSM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies.</b> Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.</p><p><blockquote><b>本季度，所有公司都将密切关注成本上升的影响以及转嫁更高价格以保护利润率的能力。</b>劳动力成本将成为企业的阻力，9月份平均时薪同比增长4.6%。抵消劳动力成本上升的是，公司只重新雇用了新冠疫情封锁期间失去的78%的工作岗位。较高的商品成本也将对大多数公司的盈利能力产生负面影响。大宗商品价格的上涨不仅仅是石油，但举个例子，油价的大幅上涨对许多非能源公司的成本产生了负面影响。能源行业在2020年第三季度出现亏损，但预计销售额增长53%说明了油价反弹的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season.</b> These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应链中断仍然是本财报季的一个重大问题。</b>这些中断既增加了大多数公司的成本，也导致无法获得消费者所需商品的公司销售损失。到本报告季结束时，运输成本增加几乎肯定会成为人们熟悉的现象。最终，强劲的需求和生产率的提高应该会克服所有这些挑战，并使第三季度的实际业绩超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Aside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least.</b> Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了收益之外，国会还达成了一项协议，将债务上限提高到足以将债务上限至少推迟到12月3日。</b>回想一下，此前，国会能够通过一项短期预算决议，以避免政府在此之前关闭。这一临时措施应该会让控制联邦政府所有三个分支的民主党有足够的时间通过和解单方面提高债务上限。随着债务上限危机在12月之前得以避免，国会现在将重新专注于谈判巨额税收和支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings calendar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利日历</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>&nbsp;No notable reports scheduled for release</li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">Fastenal</a> before market open</li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a> before market open</li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">Domino's Pizza</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> after market close</li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC Financial Services Group Inc</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>, The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> before market open</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</li><li><b>星期二：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">紧固件</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期三：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期四：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">达美乐披萨</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>、进步公司(PGR)、联合健康集团(UNH)、美国合众银行(USB)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>开市前；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>收市后</li><li><b>星期五：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC金融服务集团公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>，该<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>开市前</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; 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overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nWhat To Watch As Third-Quarter Earnings Season Begins?<blockquote>随着第三季度财报季的开始，有什么值得关注的？</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<a class=\"head\" href=\"https://laohu8.com/wemedia/1079075236\">\n\n<div class=\"h-thumb\" style=\"background-image:url(https://static.tigerbbs.com/8274c5b9d4c2852bfb1c4d6ce16c68ba);background-size:cover;\"></div>\n\n<div class=\"h-content\">\n<p class=\"h-name\">Tiger Newspress </p>\n<p class=\"h-time smaller\">2021-10-11 10:46</p>\n</div>\n</a>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p>(Oct 11) The&nbsp;Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of major financial companies poised to report results. Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.</p><p><blockquote>（10月11日）第三季度财报季本周正式启动，主要金融公司将公布业绩。投资者一直在焦急地等待最新财报季的开始，并为第二季度强劲后企业利润增长放缓做好准备。</blockquote></p><p> <img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/67cc1643f346c667ff972e41da6bbe71\" tg-width=\"1878\" tg-height=\"2940\" referrerpolicy=\"no-referrer\"></p><p><blockquote></blockquote></p><p> The pace of S&amp;P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.</p><p><blockquote>由于可以轻松地与遭受新冠疫情蹂躏的2020年和强劲的经济增长进行比较，标普500第二季度的盈利和销售额同比增长速度达到了令人瞠目结舌的水平。进入本报告季的预期更为温和，预计盈利同比增长近28%。</blockquote></p><p> If history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.</p><p><blockquote>如果以史为鉴，尽管经济活动放缓，实际表现仍应超过这些较高水平。虽然盈利有必要超出预期，但鉴于当前对经济前景和成本压力的担忧，前瞻性指引至关重要。</blockquote></p><p> <b>There are 20 S&amp;P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular.&nbsp;</b>According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.</p><p><blockquote><b>本周有20家标普500公司计划公布财报，但主要焦点将是金融股，尤其是银行股。</b>FactSet的数据显示，金融股的盈利增长率应该处于中等水平，普遍预期同比增长率为17%。</blockquote></p><p> There are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar.&nbsp;</p><p><blockquote>日历上还有一些其他公司，如达美航空(DAL)、达美乐披萨(DPZ)、台积电公司(TSM)。</blockquote></p><p> <b>This season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies.</b> Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.</p><p><blockquote><b>本季度，所有公司都将密切关注成本上升的影响以及转嫁更高价格以保护利润率的能力。</b>劳动力成本将成为企业的阻力，9月份平均时薪同比增长4.6%。抵消劳动力成本上升的是，公司只重新雇用了新冠疫情封锁期间失去的78%的工作岗位。较高的商品成本也将对大多数公司的盈利能力产生负面影响。大宗商品价格的上涨不仅仅是石油，但举个例子，油价的大幅上涨对许多非能源公司的成本产生了负面影响。能源行业在2020年第三季度出现亏损，但预计销售额增长53%说明了油价反弹的故事。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Supply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season.</b> These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.</p><p><blockquote><b>供应链中断仍然是本财报季的一个重大问题。</b>这些中断既增加了大多数公司的成本，也导致无法获得消费者所需商品的公司销售损失。到本报告季结束时，运输成本增加几乎肯定会成为人们熟悉的现象。最终，强劲的需求和生产率的提高应该会克服所有这些挑战，并使第三季度的实际业绩超出预期。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Aside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least.</b> Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.</p><p><blockquote><b>除了收益之外，国会还达成了一项协议，将债务上限提高到足以将债务上限至少推迟到12月3日。</b>回想一下，此前，国会能够通过一项短期预算决议，以避免政府在此之前关闭。这一临时措施应该会让控制联邦政府所有三个分支的民主党有足够的时间通过和解单方面提高债务上限。随着债务上限危机在12月之前得以避免，国会现在将重新专注于谈判巨额税收和支出法案。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Earnings calendar</b></p><p><blockquote><b>盈利日历</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li><b>Monday:</b>&nbsp;No notable reports scheduled for release</li>  <li><b>Tuesday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">Fastenal</a> before market open</li>  <li><b>Wednesday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">JPMorgan Chase</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">BlackRock</a>,&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">First Republic Bank</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">Delta Air Lines</a> before market open</li>  <li><b>Thursday:</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">Bank of America</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">Domino's Pizza</a> , <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">Walgreens Boots Alliance</a> , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">Wells Fargo</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">Morgan Stanley</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">Citigroup</a> before market open; <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">Alcoa</a> after market close</li>  <li><b>Friday:</b>&nbsp;<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC Financial Services Group Inc</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist Financial Corp</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">Coinbase Global, Inc.</a>, The <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">Charles Schwab</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">Goldman Sachs</a> before market open</li> </ul></p><p><blockquote><ul><li><b>星期一：</b>没有计划发布值得注意的报告</li><li><b>星期二：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FAST\">紧固件</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期三：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/JPM\">摩根大通</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BLK\">贝莱德</a>, <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/FRC\">第一共和银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DAL\">达美航空</a>开市前</li><li><b>星期四：</b><a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/BAC\">美国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/DPZ\">达美乐披萨</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WBA\">沃尔格林靴子联盟</a>、进步公司(PGR)、联合健康集团(UNH)、美国合众银行(USB)、<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/WFC\">富国银行</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/MS\">摩根士丹利</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/C\">花旗集团</a>开市前；<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/AA\">美国铝业</a>收市后</li><li><b>星期五：</b> <a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/PNC\">PNC金融服务集团公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/TFC\">Truist金融公司</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/COIN\">比特币基地全球公司。</a>，该<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/SCHW\">嘉信理财</a>,<a href=\"https://laohu8.com/S/GS\">高盛</a>开市前</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></p>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{".SPX":"S&P 500 Index",".DJI":"道琼斯","SPY":"标普500ETF",".IXIC":"NASDAQ Composite"},"is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1189049020","content_text":"(Oct 11) The Third-quarter earnings season ramps up in earnest this week with a packed schedule of major financial companies poised to report results. Investors have been anxiously awaiting the start of the latest earnings season and bracing for a deceleration in corporate profit growth after a strong second quarter.\n\nThe pace of S&P 500 year-over-year earnings and sales growth reached eye-popping levels for the second quarter due to the easy comparisons with Covid-ravaged 2020 and robust economic growth. The expectations going into this reporting season are more modest, with earnings slated to grow at almost 28% year-over-year.\nIf history is any guide, the actual performance should still exceed these elevated levels despite a moderation in economic activity. While it will be necessary for earnings to beat expectations, forward guidance will be essential with the current worries about the economic outlook and cost pressures.\nThere are 20 S&P 500 companies scheduled to report earnings this week, but the primary focus will be on the financials and the banks in particular. According to FactSet, the financials should be around the middle of the pack in earnings growth rates, with consensus year-over-year growth estimates of 17%.\nThere are a handful of other companies like Delta Air Lines (DAL), Domino’s Pizza (DPZ), Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company(TSM)on the calendar. \nThis season, the impact of higher costs and the ability to pass on higher prices to protect profit margins will be closely scrutinized across all companies. Labor costs will be a headwind for companies, with average hourly earnings rising at a 4.6% year-over-year rate in September. Offsetting higher labor costs is that companies have only re-hired 78% of the jobs lost during the Covid-lockdown. Higher commodity costs will also negatively impact most company’s profitability. The increase in commodity prices goes beyond oil, but as an example, the sharp rise in oil prices negatively impacts the costs for many non-energy companies. The energy sector had a loss in the third quarter of 2020, but the expected 53% increase in sales tells the story of the oil price rebound.\nSupply chain disruptions remain a significant issue for this earnings season. These disruptions both increased costs for most companies and resulted in lost sales for companies unable to secure the goods demanded by consumers. Increased shipping costs are almost certain to be a familiar refrain by the end of this reporting season. In the end, robust demand and increased productivity should overcome all these challenges and allow the actual third-quarter results to exceed expectations.\nAside from earnings, Congress has reached a deal to raise the debt limit enough to kick the can down the road until December 3 at least. Recall that previously, Congress was able to pass a short-term budget resolution to avoid a government shutdown until this date. This temporary measure should allow enough time for the Democrats, who control all three branches of the federal government, to unilaterally raise the debt ceiling via reconciliation. With the debt ceiling crisis averted until December, Congress will now return to focusing on negotiating the hefty tax and spending bills.\nEarnings calendar\n\nMonday: No notable reports scheduled for release\nTuesday: Fastenal before market open\nWednesday: JPMorgan Chase, BlackRock, First Republic Bank , Delta Air Lines before market open\nThursday: Bank of America , Domino's Pizza , Walgreens Boots Alliance , The Progressive Corp. (PGR), UnitedHealth Group (UNH), US Bancorp (USB), Wells Fargo, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup before market open; Alcoa after market close\nFriday: PNC Financial Services Group Inc, Truist Financial Corp, Coinbase Global, Inc., The Charles Schwab, Goldman Sachs before market open","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{".IXIC":0.9,".SPX":0.9,"SPY":0.9,".DJI":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":997,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":698350433,"gmtCreate":1640308884742,"gmtModify":1640308888174,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/698350433","repostId":"2193078140","repostType":2,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3826,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":875606148,"gmtCreate":1637637985309,"gmtModify":1637637985399,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/875606148","repostId":"1144695405","repostType":4,"repost":{"id":"1144695405","kind":"news","pubTimestamp":1637637065,"share":"https://www.laohu8.com/m/news/1144695405?lang=zh_CN&edition=full","pubTime":"2021-11-23 11:11","market":"us","language":"en","title":"Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>","url":"https://stock-news.laohu8.com/highlight/detail?id=1144695405","media":"Seeking Alpha","summary":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowev","content":"<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者，其市销率也达到了23.5。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>","collect":0,"html":"<!DOCTYPE html>\n<html>\n<head>\n<meta http-equiv=\"Content-Type\" content=\"text/html; charset=utf-8\" />\n<meta name=\"viewport\" content=\"width=device-width,initial-scale=1.0,minimum-scale=1.0,maximum-scale=1.0,user-scalable=no\"/>\n<meta name=\"format-detection\" content=\"telephone=no,email=no,address=no\" />\n<title>Rivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote></title>\n<style type=\"text/css\">\na,abbr,acronym,address,applet,article,aside,audio,b,big,blockquote,body,canvas,caption,center,cite,code,dd,del,details,dfn,div,dl,dt,\nem,embed,fieldset,figcaption,figure,footer,form,h1,h2,h3,h4,h5,h6,header,hgroup,html,i,iframe,img,ins,kbd,label,legend,li,mark,menu,nav,\nobject,ol,output,p,pre,q,ruby,s,samp,section,small,span,strike,strong,sub,summary,sup,table,tbody,td,tfoot,th,thead,time,tr,tt,u,ul,var,video{ font:inherit;margin:0;padding:0;vertical-align:baseline;border:0 }\nbody{ font-size:16px; line-height:1.5; color:#999; background:transparent; }\n.wrapper{ overflow:hidden;word-break:break-all;padding:10px; }\nh1,h2{ font-weight:normal; line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:.6em; }\nh3,h4,h5,h6{ line-height:1.35; margin-bottom:1em; }\nh1{ font-size:24px; }\nh2{ font-size:20px; }\nh3{ font-size:18px; }\nh4{ font-size:16px; }\nh5{ font-size:14px; }\nh6{ font-size:12px; }\np,ul,ol,blockquote,dl,table{ margin:1.2em 0; }\nul,ol{ margin-left:2em; }\nul{ list-style:disc; }\nol{ list-style:decimal; }\nli,li p{ margin:10px 0;}\nimg{ max-width:100%;display:block;margin:0 auto 1em; }\nblockquote{ color:#B5B2B1; border-left:3px solid #aaa; padding:1em; }\nstrong,b{font-weight:bold;}\nem,i{font-style:italic;}\ntable{ width:100%;border-collapse:collapse;border-spacing:1px;margin:1em 0;font-size:.9em; }\nth,td{ padding:5px;text-align:left;border:1px solid #aaa; }\nth{ font-weight:bold;background:#5d5d5d; }\n.symbol-link{font-weight:bold;}\n/* header{ border-bottom:1px solid #494756; } */\n.title{ margin:0 0 8px;line-height:1.3;color:#ddd; }\n.meta {color:#5e5c6d;font-size:13px;margin:0 0 .5em; }\na{text-decoration:none; color:#2a4b87;}\n.meta .head { display: inline-block; overflow: hidden}\n.head .h-thumb { width: 30px; height: 30px; margin: 0; padding: 0; border-radius: 50%; float: left;}\n.head .h-content { margin: 0; padding: 0 0 0 9px; float: left;}\n.head .h-name {font-size: 13px; color: #eee; margin: 0;}\n.head .h-time {font-size: 12.5px; color: #7E829C; margin: 0;}\n.small {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.9); -webkit-transform: scale(0.9); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.smaller {font-size: 12.5px; display: inline-block; transform: scale(0.8); -webkit-transform: scale(0.8); transform-origin: left; -webkit-transform-origin: left;}\n.bt-text {font-size: 12px;margin: 1.5em 0 0 0}\n.bt-text p {margin: 0}\n</style>\n</head>\n<body>\n<div class=\"wrapper\">\n<header>\n<h2 class=\"title\">\nRivian: 2021's Pets.com<blockquote>Rivian：2021年的Pets.com</blockquote>\n</h2>\n<h4 class=\"meta\">\n<p class=\"head\">\n<strong class=\"h-name small\">Seeking Alpha</strong><span class=\"h-time small\">2021-11-23 11:11</span>\n</p>\n</h4>\n</header>\n<article>\n<p><b>Summary</b></p><p><blockquote><b>总结</b></blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Rivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.</li>  <li>However, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.</li>  <li>Thanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.</li>  <li>In this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.</li> </ul> <p class=\"t-img-caption\"><img src=\"https://static.tigerbbs.com/4d065787049af8b17ea35806fbb51971\" tg-width=\"1536\" tg-height=\"1024\" width=\"100%\" height=\"auto\"><span>Michael M. Santiago/Getty Images News</span></p><p><blockquote><ul><li>Rivian的首次公开募股取得了巨大成功，之后市值达到了1090亿美元。</li><li>然而，该公司受到了一系列负面报道的打击，包括福特退出与其合作伙伴关系。</li><li>由于其高估值，Rivian开始看起来像Pets.com——2000年互联网泡沫破裂的典型代表。</li><li>在本文中，我将对Rivian提出看跌论点，认为其目前的价格水平仍然过高。</li></ul><p class=\"t-img-caption\"><span>迈克尔·M·圣地亚哥/盖蒂图片社新闻</span></p></blockquote></p><p> <b>Rivian</b>(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when&nbsp;<b>Ford</b>(F) announced that it had&nbsp;scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture&nbsp;with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for&nbsp;<b>Amazon</b>(AMZN) had less range than advertised.</p><p><blockquote><b>Rivian</b>(RIVN)股东上周收到了一些坏消息，当时<b>福特</b>(F)宣布取消与该公司成立合资企业的计划。这一消息是在一份报告称Rivian的电动货车专为<b>亚马逊</b>（AMZN）的范围比宣传的要小。</blockquote></p><p> Following the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.</p><p><blockquote>公告发布后，福特保留了RIVN 12%的股权。但它的行为让人对未来的任何合作产生了怀疑。从现在开始，福特将只是一家拥有RIVN股票的公司。未来不会有有利可图的合作。</blockquote></p><p> With last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.</p><p><blockquote>随着上周的消息，Rivian最大的两个投资者Amazon和Ford给该公司带来了双重打击。甚至在福特消息下跌之前，投资者就已经在抛售Rivian了。在IPO后上涨后，RIVN下跌25%，从172美元跌至128.60美元。有关该公司没有收入的报道可能是导致上市几天后遭遇抛售的原因之一。</blockquote></p><p> In many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the&nbsp;NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.</p><p><blockquote>在许多方面，Rivian已经成为一些人所说的“新科技泡沫”的典型代表。随着纳斯达克股市似乎每天都创下新高，我们开始看到价格走势让人想起2000年初，当时纳斯达克的市盈率达到175。当泡沫最终破裂时，科技股下跌了80%。纳斯达克花了15年时间才恢复过来。</blockquote></p><p> The most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.</p><p><blockquote>2000年代所有泡沫股票中最臭名昭著的是Pets.com。与Rivian一样，它吸引了亚马逊等大型科技公司的投资。IPET 1998年首次公开募股筹集了8250万美元，其股价首次亮相时为11美元。在它最强大的时候，它在梅西节游行中放了一个气球。但由于商业模式无利可图，该公司迅速亏损。该公司最终破产，到2000年底，股价为每股0.06美元。</blockquote></p><p> While the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find&nbsp;semi stocks,social media stocks, and even&nbsp;blue chip SaaS stocks&nbsp;above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space&nbsp;sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!</p><p><blockquote>虽然纳斯达克远未接近2000年的高估水平，但一些个股正在接近这一水平。我们可以找到销售额超过20倍的semi股票、社交媒体股票，甚至蓝筹SaaS股票。电动汽车是其中最膨胀的，即使是该领域最成熟的参与者，其市销率也达到了23.5。这个市场上有一些昂贵的名字，有些甚至没有销售额——更不用说盈利了！</blockquote></p><p> Rivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”</p><p><blockquote>Rivian就是一个很好的例子。就像Pets.com一样，它有很大的市值，但没有利润。该公司在招股说明书中声称，它有48,390份预购订单，每份订单已收取1,000美元。如果是这样的话，那么它从这些订单中获得了4830万美元的现金。在车辆交付之前，该公司无法将其中任何一项确认为收入。如果我们将4830万美元现金视为一种“出售”，那么Rivian的市销率达到了惊人的2270。这个数字非常高，但根据美国公认会计准则，这些不被视为“销售额”。相反，在车辆开始交付之前，它们都是一种负债。也就是说，直到收入“赚到”为止。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to&nbsp;<b>Telsa</b>(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之：Rivian的估值非常高，即使我们对它很慷慨。与之前的Pets.com一样，它的交易估值并非基于现实世界的表现。炒作，与<b>特尔萨</b>（特斯拉）和对电动汽车的普遍乐观情绪推动了价格上涨，而不是基本面。泡沫的所有迹象都在那里。有鉴于此，投资者谨慎对待该股是明智的，因为它开始看起来像90年代末上涨但在2000年痛苦崩溃的纳斯达克泡沫股票。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Pets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble</b></p><p><blockquote><b>Pets.com：泡沫解剖</b></blockquote></p><p> It’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.</p><p><blockquote>谈论2000年的崩溃不可能不提到Pets.com。它是互联网泡沫破灭中最臭名昭著的股票，在很多方面都是那个时期纳斯达克的缩影。</blockquote></p><p> Early on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its&nbsp;first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a&nbsp;$1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.</p><p><blockquote>早些时候，Pets.com的情况看起来很好。亚马逊在第一次风险投资中购买了该公司的大量股份。后来，一个投资者财团注入了1050万美元。该公司投放了价值120万美元的超级碗广告。最终，它成为一个家喻户晓的名字。2000年2月，它以每股11美元的价格上市，筹集了8250万美元。</blockquote></p><p> Things were going well.</p><p><blockquote>事情进展得很顺利。</blockquote></p><p></p><p> But people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it&nbsp;went bankrupt and was delisted.</p><p><blockquote>但人们开始对IPET的商业模式提出尖锐的问题。它很难通过邮寄大袋狗粮来产生正的毛利率。它以低于成本的价格出售，试图获得市场份额。它花了400美元来获得每个新客户。最后，它面临着来自许多公司的激烈竞争，所有公司都提供相同的基本服务。2000年11月破产退市。</blockquote></p><p> IPET’s&nbsp;final annual report&nbsp;contained the following metrics:</p><p><blockquote>IPET的最终年度报告包含以下指标：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>Cash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>现金：460万美元，比上年下降52%。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total assets: $4.7 million, down 62%</p><p><blockquote><li>总资产：470万美元，下降62%</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Total liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.</p><p><blockquote><li>总负债：418万美元，下降56%。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash raised in liquidation: $438,000.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算中筹集的现金：43.8万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Cash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.</p><p><blockquote><li>清算花费的现金：630万美元。</li></blockquote></p><p></li> </ul> No revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.</p><p><blockquote>没有报告收入或收益，因为报告发布时该公司尚未开展业务。相反，它是一家清算公司，专注于偿还投资者。</blockquote></p><p> It’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.</p><p><blockquote>在这里很难看不到与Rivian的相似之处。我们经历了亚马逊的早期投资、轰动一时的IPO、缺乏利润以及IPO后的抛售。Rivian的案例中缺少的一个因素是真正破碎的商业模式。RIVN似乎没有做任何让利润变得不可能的事情。但该公司在拥有任何真正价值之前还有很长的路要走。与此同时，投资者只能阅读有关预购和货车范围的模糊信息。</blockquote></p><p> <b>Competitive Landscape</b></p><p><blockquote><b>竞争格局</b></blockquote></p><p> One way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:</p><p><blockquote>了解Rivian价值的一种方法是查看其运营所在的市场。电动汽车行业竞争激烈，有明确的市场领导者：</blockquote></p><p> <i>Tesla.</i></p><p><blockquote><i>特斯拉.</i></blockquote></p><p> TSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is&nbsp;<b>Volkswagen</b>(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it&nbsp;delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.</p><p><blockquote>特斯拉在市值和收入方面都主导着电动汽车行业，尽管其市值主导地位远强于其销量领先地位。其他公司在交付方面正在追赶特斯拉。其中之一是<b>大众汽车</b>（OTCPK：VWAGY）。第三季度，其交付了12.21万辆全电动汽车。根据Statista的数据，它在全球电动汽车领域拥有12.5%的市场份额，仅次于特斯拉。不过，在大众汽车之后，这一数字急剧下降。这个空间里有十几个玩家。</blockquote></p><p> Rivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to&nbsp;Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.</p><p><blockquote>Rivian在电动汽车领域的市场份额无法计算，因为我们不知道它将销售多少辆汽车。如果48,000份预购订单加上亚马逊订购的100,000辆汽车最终实现，那么未来的交付量将达到148,000辆。然而，这些交付量不能计入特定的季度或年份。亚马逊货车将在四年内交付，预购可能会失败。因此，我们无法将Rivian第三季度的148,000辆潜在销量与特斯拉的237,000辆或大众的122,000辆进行比较。时间框架不一致。</blockquote></p><p> Nevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which&nbsp;TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!</p><p><blockquote>尽管如此，我们知道Rivian的份额可能相当小。如果亚马逊的交易持续到2024年底，那么每年的交付量为25,000次，即每季度6,250次。这是假设交付将于2021年开始，TechCrunch称情况确实如此。由于大多数购车者订购的是当年的车型，48,000份预购订单可能会在一年内交付。因此，假设每年向亚马逊发送25,000份，有一年——也许是2022年——将在12个月内向客户发送48,000份。这使我们一年达到73,000人，即每季度24,333人。与特斯拉和大众相差甚远。而且我们甚至不知道48000的预购会不会通过！</blockquote></p><p> <b>Valuation</b></p><p><blockquote><b>估值</b></blockquote></p><p> Another set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.</p><p><blockquote>我们可以衡量Rivian价值的另一组项目是它的倍数。总的来说，它没有任何。但我们可以根据未来的情景得出一种假设的市销率。</blockquote></p><p> If you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.</p><p><blockquote>如果你将Rivian 1000美元的预购定金视为“销售额”，那么你的销售额约为4800万美元。这将产生2,270的市销率，尽管根据美国公认会计准则，这些存款不被视为收入。我们还可以为亚马逊订单投入一些不确定的金额，但没有确认已经开始产生收入。</blockquote></p><p> Perhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:</p><p><blockquote>也许更好的倍数是使用未来的收入。Rivian卡车起价69,000美元。我们知道有48,000个消费者预购，四年内有100,000个亚马逊订单（平均每年25,000个）。这可能会使我们未来一年的销量达到73,000辆。如果平均每辆车69,000美元，那么我们的收入将达到50.37亿美元。周五的市值为1090亿美元，我们的远期市销率为22。这并不完全疯狂，但请记住，我们在这里假设：</blockquote></p><p> <ul>  <li>The 48,000 pre-orders will come through.</p><p><blockquote><ul><li>48,000份预购订单将会完成。</li></ul></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>They’ll all be delivered in 2022.</p><p><blockquote><li>它们都将在2022年交付。</li></blockquote></p><p></li>  <li>Amazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.</p><p><blockquote><li>即使在丑闻范围报告之后，亚马逊也不会退出订单。</li></blockquote></p><p></p><p></li> </ul> That’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.</p><p><blockquote>这需要做很多假设。很有可能，这个拼图中至少有一个移动的部分不合适。因此，我们在这里得到的是一个“最佳情况”的市销率，Rivian宣布的所有销售额实际上都很接近。2022年也不少！我试图尽可能地仁慈地对待我的预测，然而倍数最终仍然非常高。</blockquote></p><p> <b>The Bottom Line</b></p><p><blockquote><b>底线</b></blockquote></p><p> The bottom line on Rivian is this:</p><p><blockquote>Rivian的底线是：</blockquote></p><p> If any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.</p><p><blockquote>如果说2021年有哪家公司可以成为另一家Pets.com，那就是Rivian。</blockquote></p><p> It has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.</p><p><blockquote>它没有公认会计准则认可的销售额。它的IPO在达到令人难以置信的估值后破产了。它被炒作所包围，但几乎没有什么支持。</blockquote></p><p> Put simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.</p><p><blockquote>简而言之，它是那个时代的产物，是一只在炒作已成为常态的时代被炒作的股票。</blockquote></p><p> Does that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.</p><p><blockquote>这是否意味着Rivian股票肯定会下跌？几乎不。正如RIVN多头存在风险一样，其空头也存在风险。社交媒体的持续炒作、交付量的意外增长，或者亚马逊完成订单，所有这些情况都使RIVN成为空头风险非常大的游戏。</blockquote></p><p> But just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.</p><p><blockquote>但就像之前的Pets.com一样，RIVN看起来不太可能兑现其IPO的承诺。出于这个原因，我将传递股票。</blockquote></p><p></p>\n<div class=\"bt-text\">\n\n\n<p> 来源：<a href=\"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom\">Seeking Alpha</a></p>\n<p>为提升您的阅读体验，我们对本页面进行了排版优化</p>\n\n\n</div>\n</article>\n</div>\n</body>\n</html>\n","type":0,"thumbnail":"","relate_stocks":{"RIVN":"Rivian Automotive, Inc."},"source_url":"https://seekingalpha.com/article/4471317-rivian-2021-petscom","is_english":true,"share_image_url":"https://static.laohu8.com/e9f99090a1c2ed51c021029395664489","article_id":"1144695405","content_text":"Summary\n\nRivian had a wildly successful IPO, after which it reached a $109 billion market cap.\nHowever, the company has been hit by a string of bad reports, including Ford backing out of a partnership with it.\nThanks to its high valuation, Rivian is beginning to look like Pets.com - the poster child for the 2000 dotcom crash.\nIn this article, I will develop a bearish thesis on Rivian, arguing that its current price level is still excessive.\n\nMichael M. Santiago/Getty Images News\nRivian(RIVN) shareholders got some bad news last week, when Ford(F) announced that it had scrapped its plans to launch a joint venture with the company. The news came shortly after a report claimed that Rivian’s electric vans built for Amazon(AMZN) had less range than advertised.\nFollowing the announcement, Ford kept its 12% ownership stake in RIVN. But its actions cast doubt on any future collaboration. From this point on, Ford will simply be a company that owns RIVN stock. There will be no profitable collaboration going forward.\nWith last week’s news, Amazon and Ford -- Rivian’s two biggest investors -- dealt the company a double whammy. Even before the Ford news dropped, investors were already selling Rivian. After a post-IPO rally, RIVN fell by 25%, going from $172 to $128.60. Reports that the company had no revenue may have contributed to the selloff, which hit a couple days after it was listed.\nIn many ways, Rivian has become the poster child of what some are calling a “new tech bubble.” With NASDAQ stocks reaching new highs seemingly daily, we’re beginning to see price action reminiscent of early 2000, when the NASDAQ reached a 175 P/E ratio. When that bubble finally burst, tech stocks fell 80%. It took the NASDAQ 15 years to recover.\nThe most notorious of all the 2000-era bubble stocks was Pets.com. Like Rivian, it attracted investment from large tech players like Amazon. IPET’s 1998 IPO raised $82.5 million, its stock debuting at $11. At the height of its power, it had a balloon fly in the Macy’s Day Parade. But thanks to an unprofitable business model, the company lost money at a rapid pace. It eventually went bankrupt and, by late 2000, was trading for $0.06 per share.\nWhile the NASDAQ is nowhere near 2000 levels of overvaluation, some individual stocks are getting there. We can find semi stocks,social media stocks, and even blue chip SaaS stocks above 20 times sales. EVs are the most inflated of them all, with even the most mature player in the space sporting a 23.5 price/sales ratio. There are some pricey names in this market, and some don’t even have sales -- let alone earnings!\nRivian is a perfect case-in-point. Much like Pets.com, it has a lot of market cap but no profit. The company claimed in its prospectus that it had 48,390 pre-orders and had collected $1,000 on each one. If that’s the case then it brought in has $48.3 million in cash from those orders. The company won’t be able to recognize any of this as revenue until the vehicles are delivered. If we take the $48.3 million in cash as a kind of “sale” then Rivian has an astonishing 2,270 price/sales ratio. That’s mighty high, but these aren’t considered “sales” under U.S. GAAP. Instead, they represent a liability until the vehicles start being delivered. That is, until the revenue is “earned.”\nPut simply: Rivian has a stratospheric valuation, even if we’re being generous with it. Like Pets.com before it, it trades at a valuation not based on real world performance. Hype, comparisons to Telsa(TSLA) and general optimism toward EVs have driven the price -- not fundamentals. All the telltale signs of a bubble are there. Given this, it would be wise for investors to tread carefully with the stock, as it is beginning to look like the NASDAQ Bubble stocks that rose in the late 90s only to crash painfully in 2000.\nPets.com: Anatomy of a Bubble\nIt’s impossible to talk about the 2000 crash without mentioning Pets.com. The most infamous of the stocks that crashed in the dotcom bust, it was in many ways a microcosm of the NASDAQ in that period.\nEarly on, things looked bright for Pets.com. Amazon bought a large stake in the company in its first venture funding around. Later, a consortium of investors injected $10.5 million. The company ran a $1.2 million super bowl ad. Eventually, it became a household name. In February 2000, it went public for $11 per share, raising $82.5 million.\nThings were going well.\nBut people started asking hard questions about IPET’s business model. It had trouble generating positive gross margins mailing out large bags of dog food. It sold below cost, attempting to gain market share. It spent $400 to acquire each new customer. Finally, it faced stiff competition from a number of companies, all of them offering the same basic thing. In November 2000, it went bankrupt and was delisted.\nIPET’s final annual report contained the following metrics:\n\nCash: $4.6 million, down 52% from the prior year.\nTotal assets: $4.7 million, down 62%\nTotal liabilities: $4.18 million, down 56%.\nCash raised in liquidation: $438,000.\nCash spent in liquidation: $6.3 million.\n\nNo revenue or earnings were reported, because the company was not doing business by the time the report was released. Instead, it was a liquidation company, focused on paying off investors.\nIt’s hard not to see the similarities to Rivian here. We’ve got the early investment by Amazon, the sensational IPO, the lack of profits, and the post-IPO selloff. One factor that’s missing in Rivian’s case is a truly broken business model. There doesn’t appear to be anything RIVN is doing that will make profits impossible. But the company has a long road to drive before it has any real value. In the meantime, investors are left reading vague tea leaves about pre-orders and van range.\nCompetitive Landscape\nOne way to approach Rivian’s value is to look at the marketplace it’s operating in. The electric vehicle industry is a competitive one with a clear market leader:\nTesla.\nTSLA dominates the EV industry on both market cap and revenue, although its market cap dominance is much stronger than its sales lead. Other companies are catching up to Tesla on deliveries. One of those is Volkswagen(OTCPK:VWAGY). In the third quarter, it delivered 122,100 all-electric vehicles. According to Statista, it has a 12.5% market share in EVs globally -- right behind Tesla. It’s a steep drop-off after Volkswagen, though. And there’s more than a dozen players in the space.\nRivian’s market share in EVs is impossible to calculate because we don’t know how many vehicles it will sell. If the 48,000 pre-orders plus the 100,000 cars ordered by Amazon eventually materialize, then that’s 148,000 future deliveries. However, these deliveries can’t be counted to a specific quarter or year. The Amazon vans are going to be delivered over four years and the pre-orders may fall through. So we can’t compare Rivian’s 148,000 in potential sales to Tesla’s 237,000 in Q3, or Volkswagen’s 122,000. The timeframes don’t line up.\nNevertheless, we know that Rivian’s share is likely to be fairly small. If the Amazon deal runs to the end of 2024 then that’s 25,000 deliveries per year, or 6,250 per quarter. That’s assuming deliveries begin in 2021, which TechCrunch says is the case. The 48,000 pre-orders will presumably be delivered over the course of a single year, since most car buyers order the current year’s model. So let’s say 25,000 per year to Amazon and some year -- perhaps 2022 -- when 48,000 get sent out to customers within 12 months. That gets us to 73,000 in a year, or 24,333 per quarter. Nowhere near where Tesla and VW are. And we don’t even know whether the 48,000 pre-orders will come through!\nValuation\nAnother set of items we can look at to gauge Rivian’s value is its multiples. Broadly, it doesn’t have any. But we can come up with a kind of hypothetical price/sales ratio based on a future scenario.\nIf you treat Rivian’s $1,000 pre-order deposits as “sales” then you get to about $48 million in sales. That would produce a price/sales ratio of 2,270, although these deposits aren’t considered revenue based on U.S. GAAP. We could also throw in some indeterminate amount there for the Amazon order, but there is no confirmation that has begun generating revenue.\nPerhaps a better multiple would be using future revenue. Rivian trucks start at $69,000. We know there are 48,000 consumer pre-orders, and 100,000 Amazon orders over four years (25,000 per year on average). That could give us a future year with 73,000 sales. If they average to $69,000 per vehicle, then we get to $5.037 billion in revenue. That, with Friday’s market cap of $109 billion, gives us a 22 forward price/sales ratio. That’s not completely insane, but keep in mind we have assumed here that:\n\nThe 48,000 pre-orders will come through.\nThey’ll all be delivered in 2022.\nAmazon won’t back out of its order even after the scandalous range report.\n\nThat’s a lot of assumptions to make. Quite likely, at least one of the moving pieces in this puzzle won’t fit. So what we have got here is a “best case scenario” price/sales ratio where all of the sales Rivian has announced, actually close. And in 2022 no less! I’m attempting to be as charitable with my projection as possible, yet the multiple still ends up being very high.\nThe Bottom Line\nThe bottom line on Rivian is this:\nIf any company in 2021 could be another Pets.com, Rivian is it.\nIt has no GAAP-recognizable sales. Its IPO went bust after reaching an unbelievable valuation. It is surrounded by hype but has little to back it up.\nPut simply, it is a product of its time, a hyped up stock in an era where hype has become the norm.\nDoes that mean that Rivian stock is guaranteed to go down? Hardly. Just like there are risks to RIVN longs, there are risks to its shorts as well. Continued social media hype, an unexpected jump in deliveries, or Amazon coming through with its order, are all scenarios that make RIVN a very risky play for shorts.\nBut just like Pets.com before it, RIVN looks unlikely to live up to the promise of its IPO. For that reason, I will pass on the stock.","news_type":1,"symbols_score_info":{"RIVN":0.9}},"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":3428,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0},{"id":878586832,"gmtCreate":1637207146207,"gmtModify":1637207146324,"author":{"id":"4091157554167160","authorId":"4091157554167160","name":"Philip67","avatar":"https://static.tigerbbs.com/7f690109b021e9f6ef3020de90ca3eb5","crmLevel":11,"crmLevelSwitch":0,"followedFlag":false,"authorIdStr":"4091157554167160","idStr":"4091157554167160"},"themes":[],"htmlText":"👍","listText":"👍","text":"👍","images":[],"top":1,"highlighted":1,"essential":1,"paper":1,"likeSize":4,"commentSize":0,"repostSize":0,"link":"https://laohu8.com/post/878586832","repostId":"2184853339","repostType":4,"isVote":1,"tweetType":1,"viewCount":2711,"authorTweetTopStatus":1,"verified":2,"comments":[],"imageCount":0,"langContent":"CN","totalScore":0}],"lives":[]}